Cubs Billy Goat Blog

Projecting the National League Central Standings

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 03:30:00 +0000

As a follow up to the article I posted back on January 15, where I used projected stats and Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation formula to predict the Cubs record for 2012, I decided to take it a step further and try to predict the standings for the NL Central, following the same methodology. In addition, it gave me a chance to update the predicted wins for the Cubs, based on the updated projections for their hitters and pitchers.

Like before, I used the projections of BaseballHQ.com for each team, removed the worst hitters and pitchers to get down to around 5500 at bats and 1450 IP, which are the team averages for the NL for 2011. These are then plugged into the Pythagorean expectation formula to get that team's projected winning percentage, which, when applied to 162 games, gives that teams projected wins (and losses) for the year.

Thus, without further ado, here are the projected standings for the NL Central:

	Runs	Runs	Projected	Projected
	Scored	Allowed	Wins	Losses	Win %
Milwaukee	761	653	93	69	0.574
Cincinnati	754	675	90	72	0.556
St. Louis	716	657	88	74	0.543
Pittsburgh	662	722	74	88	0.457
Chicago	666	732	73	89	0.451
Houston	629	721	70	90	0.432

As you can see from the above, there is basically a 3 team race for first and a 3 team race for last. About what we would expect, given the level of talent on each team. Before doing this analysis, I would have predicted the Reds to finish first in the division, based on their offseason moves and the Cardinals (Albert Pujols) and Brewers (Prince Fielder) losing big pieces of their respective offenses.

The Cubs runs scored and runs allowed changed only slightly from the 665 and 736 predicted previously, but it still results in only 73 wins. I actually expect the Astros to be worse than predicted above and would be surprised if they win more than 65 games, so the Cubs will probably battle the Pirates for 4th, just like in 2011.

What to make of Bryan LaHair?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 04:09:00 +0000

Things are finally looking up for Chicago Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair.

After spending 5 1/2 years at AAA, LaHair is finally getting his shot. Call it being in the right place at the right time, but the Cubs, deep into a rebuilding process, have the luxury of giving LaHair a chance to prove himself at the major league level. Something that hasn't happened since he played 45 games for Seattle back in 2008.

The Cubs haven't always been in a position to give players a shot like this. Back in 2008, the Cubs gave little known infielder Casey McGehee just 9 games at the major league level to "prove himself", he failed and the Cubs put him on waivers after the season. Milwaukee claimed him and he rewarded the Brewers with two solid years at third, with an OPS over .800, before falling a bit flat last year.

What can we expect from Bryan LaHair? Short answer, hell if I know, but I'm willing to try to figure it out.

In 9 minor league seasons, LaHair has a career slash line of .295/.362/.503, including .297/.368/.528 in 6 years at AAA. Granted, all of those years at AAA have been in the hitter friendly PCL.

In 65 major league games, LaHair has hit .265/.335/.395, including a .288/.377/.508 line in just 59 at bats last year. He has done ok, but its not a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions.

He put up some monstrous numbers last year at Iowa, with a .331/.405/.664 line, including 38 homers in just 456 at bats. Using one of the numerous Major League Equivalency calculators onine, that projects to a .267/.331/.505 line with 28 homers, pretty good production for a first baseman.

However, 2011 was LaHair's career year in AAA, which skews the number some. Let's take a look at his MLE, based on his average AAA season, even taking into account the ballpark affects of playing in Tacoma, which is not as hitter friendly as Iowa.

In the equivalent of 3 years at Tacoma, LaHair averaged a .284/.352/.480 line with 20 homers, which produces a MLE of .251/.307/.406 with 16 homers. In 2 years at Iowa, LaHair averaged a .320/.396/.613 line with 32 homers, which produces a .259/.323/.470 MLE. Averaging the MLE's together gives one a .254/.311/.436 line with 20 homers, which is in line with what Minor League Ball projects for him (.250/.330/.450 with 20 homers), assuming he gets enough at bats.

Overall, not bad, but not exactly great numbers. This is pretty much what Tyler Colvin produced for the Cubs in 2010, at age 24, which may be enough to keep Anthony Rizzo in the minors until September.

If your looking for hope for bigger and better things, Baseball Prospectus, using their PECOTA system, lists his comparables as Leon Durham, Richie Sexson and David Ortiz. I certainly don't see LaHair turning into the next David Ortiz, but I think most Cubs fans would be happy with Durham's career line of .277/.356/.477 (minus the error in the 1984 NLCS).

Based on the above, I'm going to project that LaHair gets around 450 at bats this year, hits roughly .260/.325/.475 with 20+ homeruns (and 30+ doubles). The Cubs will then sell high on him next winter and use him to acquire a pitcher.

Spring Training Battle #2: Second Base

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 04:23:00 +0000

After taking a look at the starting pitching battle last week, its time to look at the other big battle shaping up for this spring, the battle for the second base job.

Darwin Barney is the incumbent, but there are questions about his ability and whether he would be better suited for an utility position. Adrian Cardenas, recently acquired off waivers from the Oakland A's, should be Barney's main competition for the job, but there are questions about his defense. Meanwhile, Blake DeWitt, who was demoted to AAA Iowa to make room for Cardenas on the 40-man roster, could still factor into the equation.

Here's a look at what each of them bring to the table:

Darwin Barney

Barney hit a respectable .276 in 2011, but he seemed to wear down as the season progressed, hitting only .238 in the second half, compared to .306 in the first half. In addition, he drew only 22 walks in 581 plate appearances, which produce only a .313 OBP for the year. He put together a decent year defensively, with a .981 fielding percentage and a 4.50 range factor, both of which put him in the middle of the pack in the NL. He needs to cut down on his errors, as his 12 error in 2011 ranked 4th in the NL, but some of that can be attributed to rookie mistakes. The job is probably his to lose, but as the primary backup to Starlin Castro at short, the Cubs are probably wondering if he can do both.

Adrian Cardenas

A career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, the former first round pick certainly has shown an ability to hit in the minors. In fact his career minor league numbers are superior to those of Barney (.287/.335/.376). His career .976 fielding percentage and 4.54 range factor in the minors is comparable to Barney's 2011 stats, however Barney was still transitioning to the second base role after playing mostly shortstop in the minors. Cardenas has also played short, third and outfield in the minors and could be considered a utility type as well.

Blake DeWitt

Gone but not forgotten, DeWitt will be battling for any role he can get with the Cubs, but his best chance may be to overtake Barney or Cardenas for the second base job. The main piece acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot trade, DeWitt hasn't shown much with the Cubs the last two years, hitting just .258/.309/.396. His career fielding percentage at second of .979 is comparable to those of Barney and Cardenas, but his range factor of 4.29 is a bit lower. He is fighting a major uphill battle and one that he likely won't win.

Prediction

Barney will likely begin the season as the starting second baseman, with Cardenas filling the utility role. However, if he struggles, look for Cardenas to get a shot.

Revisiting the Matt Garza trade, again.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 22:19:00 +0000

Phil Rogers gets it.

A little over a year ago I was so miffed by the Cubs giving up 5 players, including 3 of their Top 10 prospects, for Matt Garza (and a prospect) that I wrote not ONE, but TWO articles criticizing the move.

Now the Cubs are in between a rock and a hard place concerning Garza, they can either sign him to an extension, at the risk of him becoming the next Carlos Zambrano, or they can trade him and get less in return than they gave up.

Basically, on his way out the door, Jim Hendry made sure that he made at least one more move to screw up the Cubs' future.

You can say that the Cubs got the better end of the deal, because none of the players they gave up had much impact in 2011, while Garza was the Cubs' best starter. But that is not the point.

The point is that, even with Garza, the Cubs finished in 5th place in the NL Central, while the Tampa Rays made the playoffs. Sure, none of the players the Cubs gave up really helped the Rays win, but they improved the team's minor league depth and, if just one of the players becomes an above average regular for the Rays, it will have been worth it.

The Rays were able to deal Garza, because they had young stud Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings. When was the last time the Cubs were able to trade a starting pitcher because they had a younger (and better) pitcher waiting in the wings?

The Cubs need to turn their minor league system around so that they are the ones trading the Garza's of the world for prospects and, with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer at the helm, it appears that they are on the right track.

The next 3 to 5 years will be the true test of the new regime and we, as fans, need to be patient for this new approach to bear fruit. Just as the team is doing, we need to get out of the "win now" way of thinking and allow the process of building from within to work.

Spring Training Battle #1: Starting Rotation

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 17:36:00 +0000

With Spring Training already underway, its time to look at some of the key spring battles for the Chicago Cubs, starting with the biggest battle of all, the starting rotation.

Barring any last minute trades, the first 3 spots in the Cubs rotation are pretty much set. Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm are locks to fill those slots.

Thus, the battle will be for the final two spots in the rotation, with 5 candidates vying for those spots: Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija and Casey Coleman.

After a strong rookie year, Randy Wells has seen his numbers slip each of the last two years, which has put his rotation spot in jeopardy. His ERA+ has dropped from 146 in 2009, to 99 in 2010 to 78 last year. Back in November, the Cubs indicated that they were open to trading Wells, but nothing ever materialized. If it appears that Wells is going to miss out on a rotation spot this spring, its likely that the Cubs will re-open trade discussions.

Chris Volstad, who was acquired in the Carlos Zambrano trade, is another pitcher who has been unable to repeat his rookie success. After posting an ERA+ of 151 in 84.1 IP in 2008, he has failed to post an ERA+ higher than 91 the last 3 years. He did show some signs of life at the end of last year when he posted an ERA of 4.04 in 11 starts after the All Star Break, but he needs to be more consistent.

Travis Wood, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, is another pitcher who had a good rookie year (116 ERA+ in 2010), but was unable to repeat his rookie success (81 ERA+ in 2011). One thing going against Wood is that he still has an option left, meaning the Cubs could send him to the minors to start the year. Thus, if it came down to him and say Volstad for the final spot, its likely that the Cubs would pick Volstad and send Wood to the minors.

Jeff Samardzija turned in a surprisingly good performance out of the pen in 2011, with a 132 ERA+ in 88 IP, earning him consideration for a starting role this spring. Manager Dale Sveum thinks he has a legitimate shot, saying "He might wow us -- you never know. That's a power arm, power body, obviously built to start." However, his control issues (5.1 BB/9 in 2011 and 5.3 BB/9 for his career) and his success out of the pen make it likely that he will return there for 2012.

Casey Coleman is a bit of a dark horse in this competition. With the recent acquisitions, Coleman's name rarely comes up in the discussion of who will be in the rotation, but he is someone you should definitely keep an eye on this spring. Like Volstad and Wood, Coleman has a nice rookie debut, posting a 104 ERA+ in 2010, before falling on hard times last year (61 ERA+). However, he actually improved his K/9 rate to 8.0 in 2011 from 4.3 in 2010 and pitched pretty well down the stretch (4.77 ERA in 5 September starts, including 30 K's in 26.1 IP). If he can cut down on his walks (4.9 BB/9 in 2011), as his minor league track record suggests he can (career 2.9 BB/9 in minors), he could surprise this spring.

PREDICTION

I predict that the Cubs will go with a starting rotation of Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Wells and Volstad, at least to start the season, with Samardzija moving back to the pen and Wood and Coleman heading to AAA. The good news is that the Cubs will have some pitching depth should injuries befall the team like last year. The bad news is that none of these pitchers will strike fear in the hearts of opponents.

2012 MLB Compostie Prospect List

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 03:37:00 +0000

Last year around this time, I put together a MLB Composite Prospect List, which combined the various Top 100 Prospect Lists from around the web into one composite list, based on points assigned to each ranking.

This year, I have decided to split off this project from the Billy Goat Blog, as it is more general baseball than Cubs related (the Cubs don't have a lot of Top 100 prospects).

As a result, I have put together a new website, the MLB Composite Prospect Index. On there you will find the 2012 MLB Composite Prospect List, as well as similar lists going back to 2008.

I hope you find this new site a good resource for your fantasy prep.

UPDATE: There was an error with the links on the new site. It has now been fixed. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Cubs give up Chris Carpenter to Red Sox as compensation for Theo Epstein

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:46:00 +0000

As I predicted last week, the Cubs have agreed to send Chris Carpenter to the Red Sox as compensation for Theo Epstein according to Paul Sullivan. The Red Sox will also receive a PTBNL and the Cubs will receive a PTBNL.

Carpenter, who ranked 11th on the 2012 Cubs Composite Top Prospects list, has a fastball that sits in the 95 mph range and can reach 100, but has also dealt with control issues. He has a career 4.2 BB/9 in the minors, including a 6.4 mark in two seasons at AAA. He is a decent prospect, but does not project to be much more than a middle reliever.

With the addition of the PTBNL's from both sides, this is still not over. However, there is an April 15th deadline for determining these last two players and Red Sox GM Ben Cherrington expects resolution by the end of Spring Training.

Overall, its not a big loss for the Cubs and probably not what the Red Sox were hoping for in terms of "significant compensation", but its good to know that we can soon put this all behind us. As Theo said in a statement released today:

"I am relieved that this process is over and particularly pleased that the teams were able to reach agreement on their own without intervention from MLB. I truly hope and believe that this resolution will benefit both clubs, as well as Chris, who is an extremely talented reliever joining a great organization at a time when there's some opportunity in the major league bullpen. More than anything, I'm excited that we can all move forward and focus exclusively on getting ready for the season. I wish Chris and the Red Sox nothing but the best in 2012 and beyond."

With that issue settled, we can now focus on Spring Training and the upcoming season. Tomorrow, I will be unveiling my 2012 MLB Composite Top 100 Prospects list. In addition, over the next several weeks I will take a look at the Cubs' position battles for the spring, preview each of the NL Central teams and take a look at the Cubs new and improved minor league system.

Reviewing the Cubs Winter Moves.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 04:57:00 +0000

For those of you still getting caught up on the Hot Stove happenings, here is a breakdown of the Cubs offseason moves as new President Theo Espstein and GM Jed Hoyer did their best to reconstruct the roster.

November 30, 2011 - Cubs sign David DeJesus (2 years, $10 million)

Overall a good signing for the Cubs. It gave them some flexibility with the outfielders and a potential leadoff man for the 2012 season. In addition, this move made it easier for the Cubs to make their next move.

December 8, 2011 - Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu to Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

Overall, I felt this was a fair trade for both sides. Both teams gave up players in Stewart and Colvin, who were coming off down years, who could probably use a change in scenery.

December 21, 2011 - Cubs trade Sean Marshall to Reds for Travis Wood and two minor leaguers.

I really didn't like this trade when it was announced. I thought that Marshall was never truly given a shot in the Cubs rotation and that Wood was not a good enough return. However, with Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes announced as the minor leaguers included in the deal, I have since warmed up to the deal (or at least I don't hate it as much).

Sappelt is a good hitter with some defensive limitations, who will likely end up as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He ranked 16th on the Reds top 30 prospect list, as ranked by Baseball America.

Torreyes is an above average hitter with a career .364 average in 627 at bats in the low minors. He doesn't have much power or speed, and his ability to make contact limits his walks, but if he keeps hitting, he could force himself into the Cubs second base future.

December 22, 2011 - Cubs sign Manuel Corpas (1 year, $1 million)

Not a significant move for the Cubs. Corpas had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and, if healthy, could earn a spot as a middle reliever for the Cubs.

January 3, 2012 - Cubs sign Reed Johnson (1 year, $1.15 million)

Johnson served as the Cubs 4th outfielder in 2011 and hit .309/.348/.467. He will assume the same role in 2012.

January 4, 2012 - Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano (and a pile of cash) for Chris Volstad

Good riddance, Big Z.

January 6, 2012 - Cubs trade Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates

Another good move for the Cubs. Although I like Cashner, I think he'll end up in the pen, while Rizzo should be a future fixture for the Cubs at first base.

January 10, 2012 - Cubs sign Paul Maholm (1 year, $4.75 million)

Maholm is a decent pitcher and the Cubs got him at a decent price. Although I speculated at the time that this could signal a Matt Garza trade, I now suspect the Randy Wells could be traded during the spring.

January 13, 2012 - Cubs sign Kerry Wood (1 year, $3.0 million plus 2013 option)

This was probably more of a PR move than anything else. At his age and salary, Wood is a bit of a luxury for a rebuilding team like the Cubs. Still, fans love him and he loves the Cubs.

February 2, 2012 - Cubs sign Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion

Not the Cuban player the Cubs really wanted, but a good signing nonetheless. The Cubs are now focusing their attention on Concepcion's compatriot, Jorge Soler, but the competition will be pretty still for his services.

February 6, 2012 - Cubs claim Adrian Cardenas from the Oakland A's

Cardenas could compete for the starting second base job with Darwin Barney. As a result of this move, the Cubs designated for assignment Blake DeWitt, who has since cleared waivers and was sent to AAA Iowa.

Minor League Signings

Andy Sonnanstine, Joe Mather, Alfredo Amezaga, Jason Jaramillo, Rodrigo Lopez, Bobby Scales, Matt Tolbert, Edgar Gonzalez, Trever Miller and Ryan Rowland-Smith

Not much to see here, as most of these guys will just be organizational depth. Don't expect to hear much from these guys in 2012.

Overall, I think Theo and Jed did a good job this offseason building up the depth of the farm system. We all knew that the Cubs needed to rebuild and this is a good start.

Scouting the Out-of-options Players

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 23:16:00 +0000

Every year teams enter spring training with some difficult decisions looming. One such decision involves players who are out of minor league options.

For those of you unfamiliar with this rule, the overly simplified version is that once a player is placed on the 40 man roster, he has 3 option years. A player is considered to have used one of those three options when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in any of those 3 seasons. Once a team has used up a player's options, he must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. Thus, a team is almost forced to keep a player who is out of options on their active roster or they will likely lose that player to another team.

This year, as they do every year around this time, MLBTradeRumors.com has published a list of players for each team who are out of options.

Looking at the Cubs, there are 4 players out of options: Marcos Mateo, Jeff Samardzija, Geovany Soto and Bryan LaHair. Of those 4, Samardzija, Soto and LaHair are virtual locks to make the opening day roster and thus their status has little effect. The bid decision looming for the Cubs is what to do with Mateo.

Mateo pitched fairly well for the Cubs in the first half of the season last year (4.30 ERA with 25 K's in 23 IP), before a forearm strain sidelined him and kept him off the major league roster for the rest of the year. He is not a top prospect and probably doesn't project as more than a middle reliever, but I think the Cubs will find a spot for him.

Of course, with the Cubs in rebuilding mode, they should be keeping an eye on other teams with out of option players as these guys sometimes end up on the trading block. Two names I am particularly interested in are Juan Francisco and Esmil Rogers.

Francisco has bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors the last few years and, with Scott Rolen injured, the Reds gave Francisco a long look at third base last September. He held his own down the stretch, posting a .270/.299/.514 slash line and could make the team as a reserve in 2012. However, he strikes out a lot and will likely battle Todd Frazier for a reserve role. Frazier may have an edge in his positional flexibility (he can play all 4 corner spots as well as second and short), but the Reds will likely take Francisco's status into account as well when making a decision.

If Frazier beats out Francisco, the Cubs should pounce on him. With Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters currently at the top of the Cubs third base depth chart, they could certainly use another option. He wouldn't cost much and would be another low risk/high reward type move for the team.

As for Rogers, he has started 22 games for the Rockies over the last few years, with generally poor results (6.24 ERA). He has a good fastball/curveball combination but needs to learn to better spot his pitches, as he just doesn't miss enough bats to be successful. In 2010, he posted a K/9 rate of 8.3, while walking only 3.3 batters per game. However, he gave up 11.8 H/9 in 2010 and matched that with an almost identical 11.9 mark in 2011.

Rogers still has good stuff, but will be competing with as many as 8 other pitchers for the last 3 spots in the Rockies rotation. Given his track history, he will likely miss out on a spot and the Cubs could swoop in and get him for cheap.

If the Cubs truly are rebuilding, they need to take advantage of any and all opportunities that present themselves and monitoring the out of option market is just one more way of acquiring cheap talent.

Decision looming on Theo Epstein compensation?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 04:55:00 +0000

It seems as if the never ending saga that is the Theo Epstein compensation may finally be reaching a conclusion.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, both the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox have submitted briefs regarding the compensation issue and a decision could come this week.

There have been many hypotheses as to what the compensation will end up being, with the latest coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo goes through a virtual laundry list of possibilities, but summarizes his feelings towards the end of his article when he states:

If the Sox can’t get the major league player they want, they need to get one of the Cubs’ top 10 prospects. The Sox, like most teams, need pitching depth, and a guy such as McNutt certainly would seem like fair compensation.

And therein lies the whole crux of the problem. The Red Sox believe that they should get a major league player or top 10 prospect for Epstein, whereas the Cubs, citing Andy McPhail as an example (for whom the Cubs only gave up Hector Trinidad), think that a lower ranking prospect should suffice.

My gut feeling is the Bud Selig will play King Solomon and split the baby, er difference, likely awarding the Red Sox a prospect in the 11-20 range.

Looking at Baseball America's Cubs Top 30 prospects, the name that immediately jumps out at me that falls in that range is Chris Carpenter. He is major league ready and while losing him may sting a little, it wouldn't be a significant loss for the Cubs.

In any case, I'm sure everyone is looking forward to finally put this issue to rest.

Cubs miss out on Yoenis Cespedes. Step up pursuit of Jorge Soler.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 20:21:00 +0000

The Oakland A's surprised a lot of people today by signing Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes to a 4-year, $36 million contract.

After many reports put the Miami Marlins in the lead for Cespedes, with a reported offer in the $30-35 million range, the A's swooped in to land the 26 year old outfielder.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are stepping up their pursuit of the other Cuban outfielder, Jorge Soler, and are reportedly willing to go as high at $27.5 million for him. Initial estimates had Soler's asking price in the $20 million range, so it appears that the Cubs are all-in on him.

If signed, Soler, who is only 19, would likely start in low A ball and probably would not be expected to make an impact until 2015.

As I have said before, I hope the Cubs can land Soler, as I think he will be an exciting addition to the Cubs future.

With Cespedes' signing, more teams will turn their attention to Soler. Soler has yet to be declared a free agent, so teams cannot negotiate with him yet, so perhaps the Cubs are floating the $27.5 million price out there to try to scare other teams off. However, I think the competition for Soler's services could be just as intense as that of Cespedes.

The Future for Alfonso Soriano, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 05:17:00 +0000

Saw a couple interesting tidbits the last few days regarding the Cubs:

The first was an interview that Cubs GM Jed Hoyer did with Carmen, Yurko and Harry on ESPN Chicago. During the interview, Hoyer indicated that he believed that Alfonso Soriano will be will the Cubs come opening day, meaning its unlikely that the Cubs will be able to trade him.

Even though the Cubs are willing to eat a large chunk of his contract and with as many as eight teams expressing interest in him, the Cubs could not unload him. I find that hard to believe, unless the Cubs are trying to get too much in return for him. Sure his skills are deteriorating, but there are still a few teams in the AL looking for a DH and Soriano is at least as good as Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and some of the other options out there.

The Cubs probably need to lower their asking price for Soriano. Otherwise, they will likely end up with a very expensive DH on their roster.

The second part of Hoyer's conversation involved Matt Garza. Hoyer basically emphasized that the Cubs would like to keep Garza around and that they see him as a part of the Cubs future. Meanwhile, in one of his weekly chats, ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine has opined that if the Cubs can't sign Garza to an extension before the start of the season, they will likely trade him before the July 31st deadline.

It seems like a reasonable stance for the Cubs. Garza is only under team control through 2013. So, if they cannot sign him to an extension, they need to move him this year to maximize their leverage and get the best return possible. Of course, the Cubs have been asking for the moon so far, as they still have time on their side, but at some point this is going to come to a head and they will have to decide what to do. My feeling is that the Cubs will not be able to reach an agreement with Garza and he will be gone by July, but then again, I am a bit of a pessimist.

Finally, Ryan Dempster expressed interest in finishing his career with the Cubs. That's all well and good, but I don't think that's the direction the Cubs want to go. Dempster was the Cubs best and most consistent pitcher from 2008-2010, averaging 14 wins and an ERA of 3.49 during that time. However, he took a big step back last year and will soon be 35.

He is not the type of pitcher that you build around. Heck, I'm not even sure if Garza is that type of pitcher. In any case, while its nice of him to say he wants to stay, I fully expect Dempster to be gone after this season.

The Hot Stove is burning regarding Yoenis Cespedes.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 03:15:00 +0000

While the Miami Marlins wining and dining Yoenis Cespedes today, reports are already surfacing that the Marlins are the favorites to land him. Even Cespedes was quoted as saying he would like to play in Miami.

Other interested teams are expected to meet with Cespedes this week in Miami as well.

It not clear at this point whether the Marlins made him an offer, although one executive thought that the Marlins would try to seize the opportunity and make Cespedes an offer.

With the bidding for Cespedes expected to reach $50 to $60 million, I think the Cubs should focus their attention on landing Jorge Soler.

As I said before, Soler is younger, cheaper and many think he has more upside than Cespedes. Plus, he fits better into the Cubs long-term rebuilding plan. The last thing the Cubs need is to lock up someone like Cespedes to a 6-year, $60 million contract and watch him wash out after 3 years. He is not a normal free agent, with a known level of production. Thus, he inherently carries more risk.

With a player like Soler, we could give him a $15 million bonus up front and a 5-year, $15 million contract. Its a lot easier to cut a guy making $3 million than one making $10 million.

In any case, the Cubs will get their chance to meet with Cespedes and get a feel for what his salary expectations are. The Cubs may be looking to hit a homerun and sign both Cespedes and Soler. But if they just land Soler, I'll still be happy.

Cubs Claim Adrian Cardenas. DFA Blake DeWitt.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 02:31:00 +0000

The Chicago Cubs continued their efforts to makeover their roster by claiming Adrian Cardenas from the Oakland A's and designating Blake DeWitt for assignment.

Cardenas, who ranked as high as #74 on Baseball America's 2009 Top 100 prospect list, is no longer considered a top prospect. However, at age 24, he still has some upside and is a career .303/.368/.413 hitter in the minors.

I alluded to the possibility of the Cubs claiming Cardenas a little over a week ago. He has a better overall track record in the minors that incumbent second baseman Darwin Barney, and could battle him for the starting job.

DeWitt was acquired from the Dodgers in 2010 along with Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit for Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot. He was once considered the heir apparent at second base before he was beat out by Barney in Spring Training last year.

Overall I like this move. Cardenas is a low-risk option at second and I could see him beating out Barney for the starting job. I am a little surprised that the Cubs DFA'd DeWitt, after signing him to a $1.1 million contract for 2012. DeWitt is a decent utility player, but its likely that Barney could end up in that role, which many in the Cubs organization think he is better suited for.

In any case, it should provide at least one interesting position battle to watch during Spring Training.

The Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List (version 2.0)

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 03:45:00 +0000

With the Super Bowl now over, I thought it would be a good time to update the Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List. This is version 2.0, for which two new lists have been added to the mix: Minor League Ball and MLB Prospect Portal. You can check out the links to these and the other 8 sites on the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospects Page.

Here is the updated list:

2012 Composite Top Prospects
			Total	Hi	Low
	Rank	Name	Pts	Rank	Rank
	1	Brett Jackson	107	1	2
	2	Javier Baez	102	1	2
	3	Matthew Szczur	77	3	8
	4	Trey McNutt	60	4	NR
	4	Dillon Maples	58	4	NR
	6	Josh Vitters	33	5	NR
	6	Welington Castillo	32	3	NR
	8	Daniel Vogelbach	26	6	NR
	9	Jeimer Candelario	23	5	NR
	10	Junior Lake	23	4	NR

	Others earning points:
	Chris Carpenter (16), Benjamin Wells (14), Rafael Dolis (8), Reggie Golden (6), Zeke DeVoss (5), Jae-Hoon Ha (3), Pin-Chieh Chen (3), Dae-Eun Rhee (3), Austin Kirk (2), Anthony Zych (2), Marco Hernandez (2), Ronald Torreyes (1) .

Note: Although the latest lists included Anthony Rizzo, I have excluded him from the Top 10, as all the other lists did not include him and thus his ranking would be artificially low. For what its worth, both Minor League Ball and MLB Prospect Portal ranked Rizzo as the Cubs second best prospect (behind Jackson).

Finally, I may have one more update before the start of the season as two other sites are expected to post top 10 prospect lists for the Cubs. However, they are moving kind of slow, so there is no guarantee that they will finish before the start of the season.

Cubs sign Cuban Pitcher Gerardo Concepcion

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 03:03:00 +0000

According to Jorge Ebro and Enrique Rojas, Cuban defector Gerardo Concepcion has agreed to a $7 million deal with the Cubs.

Ben Badler of Baseball America (paysite) has the following scouting report on the 19 year old lefty:

Concepcion, 19, was the rookie of the year in Cuba in 2010-11, when he posted a 3.36 ERA in 101 2/3 innings pitching for the Industriales. While his ERA ranked 11th in the league, he averaged just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings with 53 strikeouts and 43 walks, though he was facing much older competition in Cuba. He defected last June in the Netherlands at the World Port Tournament, though he didn't pitch there.

Concepcion is a slender 6-foot-2 with long arms, sloped shoulders and an athletic, wiry build that could have some projection remaining. He has advanced feel for pitching for his age and has shown the ability to pitch with his fastball to both sides of the plate, though he doesn't have the stuff to miss many bats. At times his fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, though some scouts have said they've seen him dip to 86-90 mph at times.

Concepcion has had success in Cuba by being able to change speeds to keep hitters off balance. Some scouts like Concepcion's mid-70s curveball, which shows good depth at times, but others say it gets loopy. He throws slightly across his body, which provides him with a little deception, but it's a concern for some scouts who think his mechanics hamper his ability to get to the front side of his delivery and show consistency with his breaking ball. Concepcion also throws a changeup (some scouts have called it a splitter), though like many young pitchers it's still a work in progress.

While some scouts view Concepcion's upside as a No. 5 starter, others see a bit more, though with his present stuff it's hard to project more than a back-end starter for now. Concepcion, who became a free agent earlier this month, would likely begin his career at one of the Class A levels.

Overall, this is a good get for the Cubs and will hopefully lead to a bigger Cuban signing in the near future.

Could Cole Hamels be on the horizon for the Cubs?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 19:21:00 +0000

The Cubs have undergone a major overhaul this offseason, as Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have worked hard at making the team younger while also bolstering a farm system lacking depth.

However, through it all, one question keeps popping in my head: Who is going to be the Cubs ace?

Currently, Matt Garza appears to be the de facto ace for the Cubs. However, that is in name only. On a good team, he would be no better than a #2 or #3 starter.

The Cubs top pitching prospects don't project to be future aces either, as Trey McNutt and Dillon Maples both project as #2 starters, at best.

Thus, the Cubs will need to look outside their organization to find an ace. Enter Cole Hamels.

Hamels, who recently agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal with the Phillies, buying out his last year of arbitration, is likely to be a free agent after 2012. The Phillies have discussed an extension with him, but it doesn't appear that it will happen.

The Cubs will likely have some cash to spend after the 2012 season. Carlos Zambrano and his $15.5 million remaining commitment will be off the books, along with Ryan Dempster ($14 million) and Marlon Byrd ($6.5 million). Even with arbitration raises for current Cubbies (Geovany Soto, Chris Volstad, Ian Stewart, Jeff Samardzija, Blake DeWitt and first time eligible Starlin Castro), the Cubs should have at least $20-25 million to spend.

That should be enough to sign someone like Hamels. The most recent comparable pitcher to hit free agency was C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia was 27 when he reached free agency, while Hamels will be 29. Sabathia ended up signing an 8-year, $182 million contract for an average salary of $22.75 per year. I expect Hamels to get 8 years and close to $200 million.

As with most star players, the biggest competition for Hamels services will likely come from the Yankees and the Red Sox. Which means the Cubs could end up in a bidding war. But, if I were the GM for the Cubs, I would go all out in an attempt to sign Hamels. Even if the Cubs are on the 3-year rebuilding plan, they are going to need an ace when the team is ready to contend in 2014 or 2015 and Hamels appears to be the best candidate for that role.

Side Note:

I have recently joined the staff of Full Spectrum Baseball and will be writing fantasy articles for their site to be posted weekly on Saturday and Tuesday mornings. The site has some excellent writers, led by Bill Ivie (I70 Baseball) and Daniel Aubain (COSFBA) and I'm looking forward to working with them. Please check out the new site (just went live today) and let us know what you think.

Are the Tampa Rays interested in the Cubs' Geovany Soto?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 03:23:00 +0000

The Tampa Rays have pitching to deal, according to Marc Tompkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and they might use that pitching to bolster their offense. In particular, Tompkin suggests that the Rays might be willing to part with either Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis for Cubs' catcher Geovany Soto.

Done. We'll send over the paperwork tomorrow.

If the Cubs could land either of those two pitchers for Soto, I'd do it in a heartbeat. As they say, you can never have too much pitching.

As for Soto, sure he won Rookie of the Year in 2008, but he has been up-and-down and injury prone ever since. He is set to "earn" $4.3 million in 2012, his second year of arbitration, which is more than either Niemann (either $2.75 or $3.2 million, depending on the arbitor) or Davis ($1.5 million) is expected to make.

Soto may benefit from a change of scenery and, as I've said before, I would like to see what Welington Castillo could do in the starting role (with Steve Clevenger as the backup).

Niemann, who turns 29 in February, is the more experienced of the two pitchers, posting a career 4.16 ERA (97 ERA+) in 506.1 IP in the majors. The 4th pick overall in the 2004 draft, Niemann has a 6.7 K/9 rate while only allowing 2.9 BB/9.

Davis was a 3rd round selection in 2004 and has a career 4.22 ERA (92 ERA+) in 388.1 IP. He has struck out only 5.9 per 9, while allowing 3.2 walks per 9, but is about 2 1/2 years younger than Niemann. He is signed through 2014 ($2.8 million for 2013 and $4.8 million for 2014), with options for 2015 ($7 million), 2016 ($8 million) and 2017 ($10 million).

While Niemann has better overall stats, he is still arbitration eligible for two more years. Davis is younger and is cost controlled through at least 2014. Still, I think either one would be a fine addition to the Cubs.

I wouldn't get your hopes up though, as it sounds like Tompkin's article was mostly speculation. But, after living through the nightmare that was the 2011 Cubs starting rotation, its nice to fantasize about having some quality pitching (and depth) in 2012.

What is Theo Epstein worth?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:51:00 +0000

With baseball Commissioner Bud Selig on hand at the White Sox convention to present Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf with the 2011 Commissioner's Award for Philanthropic Excellence, the questions naturally turned to the issue of compensation for Cubs President Theo Epstein.

Selig, who was a bit perturbed that, after 3 months of extensions and negotiations, this issue still ended up in his lap, said that he hopes to resolve the issue quickly.

The question on everyone's mind is just what will the Cubs have to give up for Epstein. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe believes that the compensation will be significant, as Selig wants to deter executives from leaving organizations before their terms are up.

But, what exactly is significant?

The Red Sox reportedly were after pitcher Matt Garza or top prospect Brett Jackson. By comparison, the Marlins gave up Jhan Marinez and Osvaldo Martinez for manager Ozzie Guillen. Marinez ranked 4th and Martinez 5th on Baseball America's Marlins top 10 prospect list prior to the 2011 season and currently rank 7th and 10th on the White Sox top 10 prospect list.

If Selig were to use that as precedent, the Cubs could potentially lose someone like Matt Szczur, Trey McNutt and/or Dillon Maples to the Red Sox, a pretty steep price any way you cut it. If Selig really wanted to send a message, then he could agree with the Red Sox and award Matt Garza or Brett Jackson to the Sox.

I had hoped that the cost of hiring Epstein would be a lot less, something along the lines of Junior Lake or even a lower tier prospect. However, its looking more and more like the Cubs will lose a significant piece, which will be hard to swallow.

If Epstein can eventually bring a World Series championship to the Cubs, we will all forget about this or consider it a fair price. But if Epstein fails in his primary task, then this will become just another Cubs' blunder in a history filled with them.

Is Brett Jackson ready for the majors?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 04:25:00 +0000

Apparently Brett Jackson believes he's big league ready and, according to Dave van Dyck "the numbers just might bear him out."

Well, let's just see about that.

Overall, Jackson has hit .292/.393/.491 over 3 minor league seasons. He has shown a good eye, drawing 177 walks in 296 games, including 73 in each of the last two seasons. He also has shown a good combination of speed (64 stolen bases) and power (40 homeruns), plays good defense and has a good arm.

Although he has played primarily center field in the minors, he has the ability to play all 3 outfield spots. There is some question as to who is the Cubs center fielder of the future, Jackson or fast rising Matt Szczur (or maybe even Yoenis Cespedes, if they sign him). But Jackson's flexibility and power likely mean he will have a spot in the Cubs future outfield.

However, with all the upside and ability that Jackson possesses, there is still one concern: his strikeouts.

Ever since he reached high A ball in 2010, Jackson's strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 24.0% in A+ ball, to 28.9% in AA, to 34.6% in AAA. Yes, despite all those strikeout, Jackson managed to hit .297/.388/.551 in 185 at bats at AAA. However, those numbers are likely inflated by the PCL, a notorious hitters league (the league hit .285 as a whole).

The jury is still out on Jackson, at least according to Cubs' Scouting Director Jason McLeod, who said in van Dyck's article that "ultimately, his bat is going to tell who he is, whether he's going to be a superstar or complementary player."

Thus, we will likely see Jackson back in AAA to start the 2012 season and its up to him to prove to the new regime that he's ready for the bigs.

Are the Cubs looking to upgrade at second base?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 04:13:00 +0000

It appears that the Cubs, like me, are not convinced that Darwin Barney is the long term (or even short term) answer at second base.

Bruce Levine alluded to this in his Tuesday Chat on EPSN Chicago, when he stated that "Barney would be the ideal backup at 2B and SS." When asked about possible full-time replacements, Levin listed Martin Prado as a possibility, stating that "Braves have had interest in Byrd for the last 8-10 months."

If Atlanta is willing to trade Prado straight up for Byrd, then I don't know what's holding us up. I would sign off on that deal in an instant. Prado is only 27 and, despite a down year in 2011 (.260/.302/.385), is a career .293/.341/.434 hitter in the majors. He also has some pop, averaging 13 homeruns a year for the last 3 seasons.

Perhaps the Cubs are reluctant to trade Byrd, as it might force them to rush Brett Jackson to the majors. But, if they are able to sign Yoenis Cespedes, it might give them the leverage at center to trade Byrd for Prado.

Prado is under team control through 2013 and recently agreed to a one-year, $4.75 million contract with the Braves.

Other than Prado, there are not a lot of second base options available at this time. The only other option might be Adrian Cardenas, who was recently designated for assignment by the A's. Cardenas, who is only 24, is a career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, including a .314/.374/.418 line at AAA in 2011. He has posted better overall numbers in the minors than Barney, but does not have much pop or speed.

Personally, I would go after Prado, as long as the Cubs don't have to give up any prospects in return. Cardenas could be a nice fallback option, but I think Prado would be the better fit overall.

Are Cubs and Marlins heading for a bidding war on Yoenis Cespedes?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 02:57:00 +0000

Yoenis Cespedes is now a free agent, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America, and the Cubs appear to have some serious competition to land the young Cuban.

Joe Frisaro of The Fish Pond indicates that the Marlins are primed to make a "strong push" for the outfielder, which backs up Marlins President David Samson's comment earlier this month that the Marlins would be "aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there."

With the large Cuban community in Miami, it makes sense for them to pursue Cespedes. Not only could he be a large draw for the team, but he could blossom into a star.

Plus, with the team moving to a new stadium this year, the Marlins are looking to make some noise in the NL East and have already signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell for $191 million, while also trading for the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano.

Thus, the Cubs may be hard-pressed to outbid the Marlins for Cespedes and, if the bidding goes over $10 million a year, they may be better off going with plan B, Jorge Soler, whom some scouts prefer over Cespedes.

Soler is only 19, but has 5-tool potential. He will likely take some time to develop, but should cost a team somewhere in between Leonys Martin's 5 year $15.5 million contract and Aroldis Chapman's 6-year, $30.25 million contract.

Looking at the various scouting reports of the two Cubans, I think I would prefer Soler over Cespedes. While Cepedes has created more buzz and is more likely to have an immediate impact, Soler could very well turn out to be the better player of the two.

With the Cubs in rebuilding mode, Soler appears to be the better long-term choice and would make a nice "consolation prize" should the Cubs lose out on Cespedes.

Yoenis Cespedes gains residency in Dominican Republic

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 04:00:00 +0000

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, Yoenis Cespedes has gained residency in the Dominican Republic, which means it could be only a matter of days until he is declared a free agent.

Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Cubs, Marlins and Tigers were the teams "most active" on Cespedes, with Cespedes himself saying last week that the Cubs are his most serious suitor. The Tigers recent signing of Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214 million deal, may take them out of the running, leaving the Cubs and Marlins to duke it out.

It is likely that Cespedes will sign a deal in excess of the 6 year, $30.25 million contract signed by Aroldis Chapman.

But, if the Cubs were to sign Cespedes, what kind of production can we expect?

Well, Clay Davenport has already done the legwork on that, likening Cespedes to the Orioles' Adam Jones. He projects to play good defense in center field, hit about 20-25 homers and hit in the .260-.270 range. Maybe not All Star caliber, but certainly above average and worth the $7-8 million per year it will likely cost to sign him.

If the Cubs do sign Cespedes, it makes it that much more likely that they'll trade Alfonso Soriano, with Marlon Byrd moving to left field. It would also mean that the Cubs will keep top prospect Brett Jackson in the minors at least until July, when they can ship off Byrd for some prospects.

The Cubs appear to be all over the Cuban market, with the team also showing strong interest in lefty Gerardo Concepcion and outfielder Jorge Soler (who may be plan B if they don't land Cespedes).

In any case, the Cubs have some extra money lying around and appear to be ready to spend it.

Cubs Sign Jason Jaramillo! (and other more important stuff)

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 05:07:00 +0000

OK, after all the hoopla over the Cubs moves in late December and early January, things have slowed down quite a bit lately. But that's not to say there aren't some interesting things going on, you just have to dig a little harder to find it.

While the signing of Jason Jaramillo doesn't amount to much (he's likely just organizational depth), it appears that the Cubs and Red Sox have decided to let Commissioner Bud Selig decide what constitutes the "valuable compensation" that the Red Sox were promised in exchange for Theo Epstein.

Basically there is no precedent for this. There have been managers "traded" to other teams, Ozzie Guillen is the most recent example, but its rare for a GM to be traded. The Cubs are thinking that a low ranking prospect (somewhere in the 20-30 range) should suffice, whereas the Red Sox have apparently been trying to get Brett Jackson or Matt Garza. Chances are that Selig will put the compensation somewhere in the middle (perhaps a guy like Junior Lake).

Another interesting tidbit is that Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes is saying that the Cubs "have been most interested in me" (Spanish link). Cespedes, best known for his workout video (Jane Fonda has nothing on him), is an outfielder with tremendous upside and could be a great addition to the Cubs. The only problem is how his skills will translate in the states.

But Cespedes is not the only Cuban defector the Cubs are after, as they have also been linked to 18-year-old lefty Gerardo Concepcion. Concepcion was recently declared a free agent and is free to negotiate with any team.

Finally, the Cubs signed nearly all of their arbitration eligible players: Geovany Soto ($4.3 million), Jeff Baker ($1.375 million), Blake DeWitt ($1.1 million), Ian Stewart ($2.237 million), Chris Volstad ($2.655 million) and Randy Wells ($2.705 million), leaving only Matt Garza unsigned. Based on my rough calculations, and estimating a $9 million salary for Garza, that puts the Cubs at around $105 million in payroll (give or take a few million), considerably less than the 2011 opening day payroll of $134 million.

The Cubs are probably using that extra cash to pursue Cespedes and Concepcion. Cespedes is expected to sign for more than Aroldis Chapman's 6 year, $30 million contract. But, at 27 years old, Cespedes is younger that most American free agents are when they first hit the market and thus makes more sense for the rebuilding Cubs. Cespedes is expected to become a free agent soon and is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League.

In any case, the Cubs still have some unfinished business left before pitchers and catchers report in a month.

What are reasonable expectations for the 2012 Cubs?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 04:15:00 +0000

With the recent signing of Kerry Wood, it appears that most of the Cubs rebuilding is complete, at least for the 2012 season. Matt Garza could still be moved, however with the Yankees recently acquisition of Michael Pineda, there is one less suitor on that front.

Thus, with most of the winter moves completed, what can we expect from this team in 2012?

Well, if you ask the players, they remain confident and believe the Cubs can contend.

Per Ian Stewart, "There's been a lot of teams that have started the season with question marks that have gone on to be good teams, so there's no reason we can't do that here."

Even Theo Epstein is not totally giving up on the 2012 season and thinks "we might surprise some people".

However, after last year when Jim Hendry was quoted as saying “we fully expect to be in contention in the National League Central", prior to the Cubs finishing 5th in the Central, I remain skeptical.

Thus, I thought I would take a look at the Cubs current roster and try to get a feel for what to expect for the 2012 season, i.e. how many wins can we realistically expect from this current group?

To do this, I decided to apply Bill James' Pythagorean expectation formula, which uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to predict a team's total wins. For example, using the Cubs 2011 runs scored of 654 and runs allowed of 756, the formula predicts 69 wins, or 2 less than the 71 wins the Cubs ended up with, which is well within a reasonable margin of error.

So, to apply this to the 2012 season, I first had to find projected runs scored and runs allowed for the 2012 Cubs. Thus, I turned to one of my favorite sites, BaseballHQ.com, which puts together their first projections in December and updates them regularly for each significant transaction.

A couple tweaks were needed as BBHQ only projects ER for pitchers and their total IP were a little high. Thus, I calculated runs allowed based on the Cubs 2011 ratio of ER to Runs (91%). In addition, I removed some of the fringe pitchers to get the 2012 IP down to around 1450 (the Cubs had 1434 IP in 2011).

With those tweaks, I came up with projections of 665 runs scored and 736 runs allowed. Applying the Pythagorean expectation formula gives 73 wins (72.8 to be exact) or about the same as 2011.

For a team going through a major rebuilding, I think most fans would be OK with 73 wins in 2012, with the expectation that that total would increase going forward. Its OK to try to be optimistic, especially when its the Cubs Convention and you're trying to drive up fan support and ticket sales, but I don't think we should realistically expect to contend in 2012 and, if they do surprise some people, it would probably mean they finish above .500.