Cubs Billy Goat Blog

The End...

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 17:10:00 +0000

Well folks, this will be my last post on this site. As I mentioned a couple months ago, I will no longer be writing the Cubs Billy Goat Blog.

Its been a fun ride, while it lasted, but its time to move on to other things.

Thanks for following me over the last few years and I hope the Cubs somehow figure out how to win it all in your lifetime.

Ryan Dempster handcuffs Cubs

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 21:56:00 +0000

A little over a week ago, Ryan Dempster was supposedly open to any trade, saying he would "consider" a trade to any contender. Ken Rosenthal took it a step further, saying that the Dodgers were Dempster's first choice and the Braves his second.

Well, maybe he should have said that the Dodgers were Dempster's only choice.

With the trade deadline 5 days away, Dempster rejected a deal earlier this week with the Braves that would have netted the Cubs young righthander Randall Delgado. The Braves have since moved on, leaving the Dodgers as the Cubs' only option for Dempster.

As a 10 and 5 guy, Dempster has the right to veto any trade. But, does it make sense to say you prefer two teams and then reject a trade to one of them?

The Cubs are trying to regain leverage by saying that they will hold on to Dempster and make him a "qualifying offer" in order to get draft pick compensation, but the likelihood of that happening is remote.

I'm sure this whole situation has many Cubs fans miffed and I certainly can understand why.

With little leverage and only one team to work with, the Cubs will be fortunate to get anything of value for Dempster.

Ryan Dempster could be moved soon

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 02:01:00 +0000

With potentially two starting pitchers on the block this month, ESPN's Buster Olney suggests that the Cubs should look to trade Ryan Dempster now so that he doesn't interfere with their efforts to trade Matt Garza closer to the deadline.

It makes sense in that Dempster's value is probably at his highest right now, having thrown 11 scoreless innings since coming off the DL and 33 straight scoreless overall.

For his part, Dempster is saying all the right things. Despite his 10 and 5 rights, which allow him to veto any trade, Dempster has come out and said that he would consider going to any contender, according to Ken Rosenthal.

Better still, Dempster told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he would be willing to re-sign with the Cubs this offseason, even if he's traded. So the Cubs could acquire young talent and still have a quality arm to rely on next season.

Today, things started heating up as Buster Olney tweated that the Red Sox are "aggressive" in their pursuit of Dempster.

Since I didn't include the Red Sox in my analysis of what the Cubs could fetch for Dempster a couple day ago, here's a quick look at what the Sox have to offer:

The Red Sox are flush with third baseman with top ranked prospect Will Middlebrooks already in the majors and second ranked Xander Bogaerts doing well in high A ball. However, its unlikely the Cubs could pry either of them away for Dempster. However, another third base prospect, Garin Cecchini, who ranked 7th on the Red Sox prospect list, could be had.

Cecchini is currently hitting .309/.389/.441 at low A Greenville with 31 steals. Baseball America rated him as the best pure hitter in the Red Sox system. If the Cubs pick up most of Dempster's salary, Cecchini could be considered expendable by the Sox.

Another possibility could be the Red Sox 2010 first round pick Anthony Ranaudo. Ranaudo has struggled this year in AA, posting an unsightly 6.69 ERA and 27/27 K/BB ratio in just 37.2 IP. However, despite his struggles, I don't think the Sox are ready to give up on him yet.

Chances are the Cubs will target Cecchini and a low level prospect or two.

Stay tuned as things could happen quickly.

Cubs' Ryan Dempster drawing lots of interest. What could he fetch?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 03:35:00 +0000

According to ESPN's Bruce Levine, at least 10 teams are interested in the Cubs' Ryan Dempster. Dempster currently is working on a 33 inning scoreless streak and the Cubs are willing to pay part of the approximately $7 million he is owed in order to get a better return.

The interested teams include the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Atlanta Braves. The Cubs are searching primarily for young arms in return, but they are also seeking a highly touted third base prospect.

Here is a quick breakdown of what each of these teams may have to offer:

Detroit Tigers

If the Cubs are looking for a highly touted third base prospect, the Tigers have probably the most highly touted third base prospect in all of baseball in Nick Castellanos, who ranked 12th on Baseball America's Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects.

The Tigers also have several quality pitching prospects including Jacob Turner, Casey Crosby, Andy Oliver and Brenny Paulino.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers don't have any quality third base prospects, but they have an abundance of good young pitching prospects, including Zach Lee, Allen Webster, Garrett Gould and Chris Withrow. All 4 of these pitchers ranked amongst the Dodgers Top 10 Prospects heading into this season, according to Baseball America.

The Dodgers' new ownership is looking to make a big splash before the trade deadline and money is not an issue.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians top prospect, Francisco Lindor, is a shortstop, but the Cubs could pursue him with the thought of pushing Starlin Castro to third in the future. After that the cupboard's pretty bare, as the Indians' farm system was ranked 29th by Baseball America in terms of depth and quality prospects. Lefty Nick Hagadone could be a possibility, but he profiles as a reliever and the Cubs really need starters.

New York Yankees

The Yankees top 2 pitching prospects, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, have struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness this year. If the Yankees are tired of waiting and need some immediate help, they may be willing to part with one of them for Dempster.

In addition, the Yankees also have third base prospect Dante Bichette Jr. as a potential trade chip. He is currently is low A ball and the Yankees could deem him expendable, with Alex Rodriguez blocking him.

Chicago White Sox

Like the Indians, the South Siders don't have a particularly strong minor league system. Their top pitching prospect, Nestor Molina, profiles more as a back of the rotation guy.

Third baseman Juan Silverio ranked amongst the Sox top 10 prospect, according to Baseball America, but doesn't crack anyone's top 100 list.

Atlanta Braves

If there's one thing the Braves have, its young starting pitchers and they may be willing to part with one of them. Youngsters, such as Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado, who were once untouchable, have all struggled this year and could be made available for the right veteran.

Its more likely that the Braves would be willing to part with one of those three for someone like Matt Garza, who is under team control through 2013, but the Braves also have lower level prospects like lefty Sean Gilmartin and third baseman Edward Salcedo, who they could use to acquire Dempster.

Overall

Its unlikely that the Cubs can get two of the above players listed above for a two-month rental like Dempster. But if they could land one of the above, it would be a good haul. Personally, I would love to see the Cubs acquire someone like Castellanos, but its more likely that the Cubs would have to use Matt Garza to get him. Look for Dempster to bring back a lower level prospect, such as Gilmartin, Salcedo or Bichette.

Cubs rumors heating up

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 19 Jun 2012 17:56:00 +0000

With the Cubs wallowing in last place, there hasn't been much to write about this year (how many different ways can you say the Cubs stink?). However, with the trade deadline fast approaching, things are about to get a lot more interesting for the Cubs.

I expect to see a lot of changes to the Cubs roster over the next 6 weeks, either via trade or prospects getting called up. With Bryan LaHair making his first start in right field yesterday, there is already an expectation that this means Anthony Rizzo will be called up soon.

On the trade front, rumors are heating up, primarily regarding Cubs pitchers Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, however, they are not the only ones who could be traded.

Here's a look at the players potentially on the block and where they might be headed.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster is not going to be traded in the next couple weeks, as he's currently on the DL with a lat strain. However, as many as ten teams are interested in the righthander, with the Dodgers and Red Sox at the forefront.

The Yankees were also reportedly interested in Dempster, however, according to Joel Sherman one Yankees exec doesn't think that Dempster would be an upgrade over what the team currently has.

Also, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (paysite), the Cubs are willing to pay a significant portion of Dempster's salary to get quality prospects in return.

Bottom line, the Cubs need to beef up their farm system and they are willing to "buy" prospects from other teams to do so.

Matt Garza

Due to the fact that he's under team control through 2013 at a reasonable price, Garza would be the Cubs most attractive trade chip, should he be made available.

There has not been much talk of a contract extension lately and, according to Buster Olney (again paysite), Garza has been talked about a lot more in recent days. Olney also says that Garza would be one of the top pitchers on the market if he was made available.

The Dodgers are interested in Garza and the Yankees prefer Garza to Dempster. If we could get those two teams in a bidding war for his services, we should be able to land a good haul for Garza.

Alfonso Soriano

I have covered the albatross and his bloated contract several times, but for those of you who want to rehash it, MLBtraderumors does a nice analysis of Soriano's trade prospects.

Suffice it to say, it will be very difficult to trade Soriano.

Darwin Barney

This one surprised me a little, as Barney has been one of the Cubs more productive hitters this season. However, according to Ken Rosenthal, teams have frequently asked about Barney, but the offers haven't been to the Cubs liking, yet.

There are many teams who could use some infield depth and many see Barney as a utility type player.

Bryan LaHair

LaHair is in play, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jim Bowden of ESPN says that many scouts feel he is a late bloomer, like Nelson Cruz or Jose Bautista.

However, the Cubs will probably wait and see how he fares in right field before deciding whether or not to trade him. If he can play a passable right field, the Cubs may want to hold onto him, as their lineup already lacks fire power.

Those are the main players that could end up on the block heading up to the July 31st trade deadline, but it is by no means an exhaustive list. The Cubs are probably willing to trade everyone on their major league roster, with the possible exception of Stalin Castro and even he was mentioned in trade rumors before Theo Epstein denied them.

As I said, it should be an interesting month and a half heading up to the trade deadline. In the next couple weeks, I will take a look at the players listed above and try to get a feel for what they net the Cubs in a trade.

Attention Cubs Management: Please do NOT sign Ryan Dempster to an extension.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 30 May 2012 03:07:00 +0000

OK, so its been a pretty slow year as far as Cubs news goes. The Cubs are in last place and Carlos Zambrano is not around to blow up after another one of his bad outings.

However, I recently came this gem of an article that made me cringe. Apparently, Cubs President Theo Epstein is open to signing Ryan Dempster to an extension.

First let me say that Dempster has been tremendous for the Cubs this year. If it wasn't for him the Cubs would be in last place...er, scratch that. If it wasn't for Dempster, the Cubs would be in Iowa.

But, let's be clear about this, the reason Cubs fans are suffering through this miserable year is that there is a hope that Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have a master rebuilding plan that will put the Cubs back into contention in the not-so-distant future.

So, why is it that the Cubs management would decide to take their best trade chip off the market before the market even develops?

Do they plan to use him as a building block for a future championship team?

As good as Dempster has been, he recently turned 35 and is not getting any younger. Prior to this year, Dempster's ERA as a starter increased each year from 2008 (2.96 ERA), his first year starting with the Cubs, to last year's 4.80 ERA.

Sure, this is Dempster's 9th season with the Cubs and he would probably give them a bit of a discount to finish his career in Chicago. But if that's the case, the Cubs should try to trade him in July, then resign him as a free agent.

If the Cubs are truly committed to rebuilding, they need to cash in on Dempster while his stock is high. The Cubs have a lack of quality arms in their minor league system and Dempster could bring a decent return.

If the Cubs retain Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija continues to develop, the have two young pitchers to build around. If they are able to add a young pitcher by trading Dempster and another potentially through the draft, then we can get serious about contending on a consistent basis.

Carlos Marmol will be back as closer. Just you wait.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 11 May 2012 03:52:00 +0000

Cubs Manager Dale Sveum made an interesting comment the other day, saying basically that Carlos Marmol is not guaranteed to return to the closer role.

Well, I think he is. In fact, I believe he'll be back in the role by June (at least, if the Cubs know what's good for them).

Bottom line is that the Cubs need to trade Marmol and they cannot do that when his value is at its lowest, which it is now. They need him to get back into form, put together a strong month in the closer role and then trade him in July to the first contender to come calling.

Marmol is just another example of bad contract management by former GM Jim Hendry. Coming off a career year in 2010, Hendry signed Marmol to a 3-year extension in February 2011, effectively buying out his last two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency.

The problem is that, even though Marmol put up incredible numbers, posting a 2.55 ERA, saving 38 games and striking out 138 in 77.2 IP (16.0 K/9), he still showed signs of the control problems that have plagued him every year.

His BB/9 ratio in 2010 was 6.0, same as his career mark. Sure it was down from his high water mark of 7.9 in 2009, but its still too high to be an effective reliever over the long haul.

Hendry would have been better served to let Marmol play out his arbitration years and see how he performed before committing to him long-term. Sure hindsight is 20/20, but the warning signs were there.

Now, the best bet for the Cubs is that Marmol returns to the closer role at the beginning of June, puts up solid numbers for a month and garners strong interest from one of several teams in need of bullpen help.

Currently there are five teams with injured closers: Boston (Andrew Bailey), Tampa Bay (Kyle Farnsworth), Washington (Drew Storen), Toronto (Sergio Santos) and San Diego (Huston Street). In addition, there are 3 other teams (besides the Cubs) with struggling or deposed closers: Miami (Heath Bell), LA Angels (Jordan Walden) and the White Sox (Hector Santiago).

At least half of these teams are considered contenders and there are likely more teams with bullpen issues to crop up as the season progresses.

As you can see, it is imperative that Marmol gets back into form so the Cubs can deal him in July. Otherwise, they will be stuck paying $9.8 million for 2013, an expensive price for a setup man.

Taking a look at the Cubs potential July trade chips

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 03 May 2012 22:34:00 +0000

I know that its only May, but when you're in rebuilding mode, like the Cubs, its never too early to start thinking about the July trade deadline. The Cubs will obviously be sellers again, but what assets do they have that might be of value to other teams?

Here's a look at some players who may be of interest to other teams and the potential return the Cubs could expect for them.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster is probably the best trade chip the Cubs have at this point (unless Matt Garza becomes available--more on that later). So far this year he has a sparkling 0.95 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB ratio in 28.1 IP. Contenders are always looking for starting pitching and this year is no exception with the Yankees and Red Sox among the teams in need. Dempster seems to have regained his form after a sub-par 2011 and should net the Cubs 2-3 prospects with at least one in that team's top 10.

Carlos Marmol

Marmol is struggling this year and may soon be out as the Cubs closer, but his live arm could still be of use to a contender in a setup role. Given that he is being paid $7 million this year and is owed $9.8 million for 2013, the Cubs would probably have to kick in some money to get a decent prospect in return. However, the Cubs have shown a willingness to do just that, most recently with Marlon Byrd. Expect the Cubs to net a mid-tier prospect (someone in a team's 11-20 range) or a former top prospect that needs a change of scenery.

Paul Maholm

Maholm hasn't exactly been great this year, so teams will not be knocking down Jed Hoyer's door for him, but after the top pitchers are off the market, Maholm could appeal to a lot of teams, if only because he's left handed. He's signed for a reasonable $4.25 million this year with a $6.5 million option for 2013 that carries a $500K buyout. Again, depending on how much money the Cubs throw in, I would expect they could get another mid-tier prospect for Maholm.

Geovany Soto

Its hard to get a read on Soto career trajectory. Is he the guy who had an OPS of .868 and .890 in 2008 and 2010 or is he the guy who had an OPS of .702 and .721 in 2009 and 2011? So far this year, it appears to be the latter, as Soto has struggled mightily and is losing playing time to Steve Clevenger. Soto is making $4.3 million in his second year of arbitration and will likely see an increase in 2013 because that's just how the arbitration process works. Once again, we're probably looking at a mid-tier prospect in return and that's if the Cubs throw in a few million in the deal.

Matt Garza

Garza is the Cubs wild card. Everyone in the organization is saying they want to sign him to an extension and build around him, but there has not been much news on the extension front. For his part, Garza has not let his uncertain future hinder his performance. He has been very good so far with a 2.67 ERA and 36 K's in 33.2 IP. Bruce Levine has been saying for months that "if Garza is not signed to a long-term deal by July, he will be dealt." If the Cubs do end up dealing Garza, he should command a pretty steep price. We're talking at least 3-4 good prospects, with at least two in a team's top 10.

Alfonso Soriano

The Albatross will likely be a fixture in left field for the Cubs for the next two years unless the Cubs can find some sucker to take him off their hands. Ideally suited for the DH role, Soriano still has some pop left in the bat, having never failed to hit more than 20 homers since his rookie year in 2001. By the time July rolls around, Sori will still have around $45 million left on his contract and you can bet that the Cubs would have to eat a large chunk of that to be rid of him. Even if they do, the Cubs will likely not get much in return. Best case would be a fringe prospect. Worst case would be a bad contract in return. If the Cubs cannot find a taker and Brett Jackson is knocking down the door, they may be better off just releasing Soriano and eating the remainder of his contract.

As I said before, this should be an interesting July and could go a long way towards the Cubs rebuilding efforts. The returns they get this year, along with their high draft picks this year and next, could very well determine how soon they can become contenders again.

Rizzo who? Bryan LaHair is the Cubs first baseman!

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:56:00 +0000

Sometimes all you need is a chance to prove yourself and Bryan LaHair is doing just that.

After languishing in the minors for 9 seasons, the Cubs are the first team to finally give LaHair a chance to show what he can do on the major league stage. So far, the results have been spectacular.

Through 20 games, LaHair has a slash line of .390/.471/.780 for an obscene OPS of 1.251 and an OPS+ of 241. Despite missing the first 3 games of the season due to injury, he still leads the team in homers (5) and doubles (8), and is tied for the team lead for RBIs (14) with Starlin Castro and walks (10) with David DeJesus.

The only blemish on his ridiculous start is that he has also struck out 25 times in just 59 at bats, a sign that his average will likely drop. However, his power is legit (he hit 38 homers in AAA last season) and he certainly looks like a keeper for the Cubs.

LaHair's performance reminds me of another late-bloomer who broke onto the scene with a big season in his age 29 year--Ryan Ludwick.

Ludwick had a bit more experience than LaHair, playing in 271 major league games before he turned 29. But Ludwick never gave any indication of being capable of putting up the kind of numbers he did when he broke out in 2008 to hit .299/.375/.591 with 37 homers.

Unfortunately for Ludwick, he was never able to reproduce those kind of numbers again and has since bounced around the majors looking for a home.

Could LaHair's career follow a similar path? Cubs fans hope not, but baseball history is littered with players who have one magical season that they are never able to duplicate.

If this is to be LaHair's magical season, its too bad its going to be wasted in a rebuilding year. But the Cubs are hoping that LaHair is legit and can learn to play left field for when Anthony Rizzo is ready.

Cubs trade Marlon Byrd to Red Sox for Michael Bowden and PTBNL

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 02:02:00 +0000

Overshadowed by Philip Humber's perfect game today was the Cubs move to trade struggling outfielder Marlon Byrd for Red Sox pitcher Michael Bowden and a PTBNL.

Bowden, the 47th overall pick in the 2005 draft, has ranked as high as 2nd on the Red Sox 2009 Top 10 prospect list by Baseball America. He has a career 3.19 ERA in the minors and has a 5.61 ERA in 59.1 major league innings. He profiles as a #3 starter.

Before Cubs fans get all excited about the prospects of Brett Jackson's arrival in Wrigley Field, Bruce Levine reports that Theo Epstein and company will not promote Jackson (or Rizzo for that matter) until the feel he is ready. Levine goes on to say that the general rule of thumb is that prospects should receive 500 AB's at the AAA level before they are promoted.

Currently, Jackson has only 247 AB's (through Friday) in 63 games. At that pace, it would probably take him around 65 more games to reach 500 AB's or around the end of June.

In the meantime, the Cubs will likely give Tony Campana a shot to show what he can do. Campana is a good contact hitter (83% career contact rate in minors) and has excellent speed. He could provide the Cubs with another option for the leadoff spot.

One things for sure, the youth movement continues in Chicago.

In search of an ace for the Cubs.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 22:30:00 +0000

Let's face it, the Cubs pitching staff stinks again this year. The quintet of Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Jeff Samardzija, Paul Maholm and Chris Volstad is unlikely to strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Through 12 games, the Cubs starters are 12th in the NL in ERA (4.33).

One thing the Cubs sorely lack is an ace. Matt Garza is a fine pitcher and should be kept around if the Cubs can sign him to a reasonable extension, but he is no ace. He would probably be at best a #2 starter on a good team.

So, how do the Cubs go about finding an ace?

Well, trading for one is probably out of the question. The Cubs are rebuilding and are unlikely to trade what little minor league depth they have to acquire a true ace.

Signing an ace as a free agent is also becoming more difficult, as most of the best pitchers are signed to extensions before they reach free agency.

Where does that leave the Cubs? Well, thanks to last year's poor record, the Cubs get to pick 6th overall in this year's draft. It just so happens that, according to Baseball America, 5 of the top 7 draft prospects are pitchers. Thus, if the Cubs are ever going to find an ace in the draft, this is the year to do so.

Here is a quick breakdown of the top pitching prospects available in this year's draft:

1. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco (3-3, 2.79 ERA, 65K's, 10BB, 61.1 IP)

Ranked as the 3rd best draft prospect by Baseball America, Zimmer can reach the high 90's with his fastball and has seen his stock rise dramatically over the last year.

2. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford (4-1, 2.86 ERA, 68K's, 18BB, 66IP)

Ranked as the 4th best draft prospect, he is more polished than Zimmer (a converted infielder), with a fastball that tops out at 95mph and the makings of a plus curve and change.

3. Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU (6-1, 2.76 ERA, 77K's, 19BB, 62IP)

The 5th best draft prospect by BA, Gausman also possesses a high 90's fastball and has a plus changeup and two curves to go with it.

4. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, CA

The 6th best draft prospect can touch 100mph, but recently was declared out for his HS season with a strained UCL (no surgery needed, 6-10 weeks rest).

5. Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M (5-0, 2.42 ERA, 66K's, 11BB, 63.1IP)

The 7th best draft prospect throws in the low 90's, but has good command and polish.

As you can see, there are a lot of good arms available at the top of this years draft. Personally, I like Kyle Zimmer. As a converted infielder, there is less wear and tear on his arm than the other prospects (he only started pitching full-time last year as a sophomore). Problem is, his stock is rising fast and he is rumored to be the potential first overall pick. However, if he somehow makes it to the Cubs, they should grab him.

The opportunity is out there for the Cubs to draft their future ace this year. Let's hope their scouting department can figure out who that guy is.

Bryan LaHair vs Anthony Rizzo: the battle continues

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 20:25:00 +0000

Just because Spring Training is over and Bryan LaHair "won" the starting first baseman job (technically he was handed the job before Spring Training even began), it doesn't mean that the battle is over. LaHair will be constantly looking over his shoulder and keeping a close eye on Anthony Rizzo's performance at AAA Iowa.

So far at least, LaHair has performed well enough to silence the doubters, but Rizzo is tearing it up in the PCL and is only a phone call away.

Here are their stats through Thursday:

Bryan LaHair

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	6	16	1	6	2	0	1	1	0	0	2	6	.375	.444	.688

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2012.

Anthony Rizzo

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	8	31	5	12	0	0	3	10	1	0	2	7	.387	.424	.677

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2012.

LaHair missed a few games early on due to injury, but has certainly hit the ground running. I will keep weekly tabs on this battle (at least through July) to see when or if Rizzo over takes LaHair.

Cubs vs Cardinals: The "Rivalry"

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 22:08:00 +0000

With the Cubs and Cardinals set to resume their rivalry this weekend, I thought it was about time I shared my thoughts on this rivalry.

Over the last few years writing about the Cubs, I tried to avoid this subject, as I thought my true colors would show and the gig would be up. However, now that the cat is out of the bag so to speak, I'm free to speak my mind about the Cubs and the Cardinals.

First of all, try as I might, I have never considered the Cubs a true "rival". That is because, to be a true rival, you've got to really hate the other team, like the Yankees and Red Sox, Illinois and Iowa (Bruce Pearl, 'nuff said), or the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. You don't often see fans from either side of the Cubs/Cardinals rivalry spewing venom at the other side or worse trying to injure the other teams fans.

For the most part, its a friendly rivalry. Growing up in Central Illinois, where the fan bases were pretty evenly split, I had plenty of friends on both sides and we didn't think anything of it. It was just the subject of good-natured ribbing and bragging rights each year, depending on who won the season series.

So, while Cardinals fans have seen this picture countless times over the years:

We can reply, in kind, with this:

Second, I've never considered the Cubs as true rivals, because it is rare that the Cubs and Cardinals are competing for the division title in the same year. The Red Sox and Yankees always seem to be competing for first place in the AL East. But, going back to when I was a kid (let's just say over 30 years), I can only remember a handful of times that the Cubs and Cardinals were in a pennant race.

That's not to say that there aren't some lunatic fringe fans on both sides of the equation, but for the most part Cubs and Cardinals fans respect each other and that's what makes the rivalry fun. I still cringe every time I see a replay of the "Ryne Sandberg Game" as I'm sure Cubs fans cringe every time Brock for Broglio is mentioned.

Finally, I think one thing we can agree on is that the games are always intense. No matter who is the better team in any given year, you can bet that the games will be hard-played and close, with neither team giving an inch. Players take the rivalry seriously and there are always the Ryan Theriot's of the world to stir the pot even more. However, as Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire showed during the home run race of 1998, there is also a mutual respect between the two clubs.

So, as far as rivalries go, I wouldn't put this up there in the upper echelon's of sports rivalries. Its no Duke/North Carolina or Celtics/Lakers, but it has its moments and passionate fans on both sides.

The end is near and a confession...

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 01:28:00 +0000

After nearly 3 years of writing about the Cubs, I have reached the decision to call it quits. I am currently working out the arrangements to leave the Yardbarker Network at the end of July.

As many of you may have guessed from my lack of articles lately, my heart just isn't in it any more. Truth is though, my heart never really was fully "in it" to begin with.

For those of you who were around when I originally started writing about the Cubs under the Cubspack blog for the Fanball Blog Network, you may have seen in my "about me" page that I was born and raised as a St. Louis Cardinals fan. Although I like the Cubs and live in the Chicago area, I do not consider myself a Cubs' fan. I just chose to write about them as the Cardinals were already taken.

With that said, I have tried to write about the Cubs from a fans' perspective, but I would guess that some of my Cardinals bias may have come through as well. In any case, I hope you have enjoyed my articles over the years.

I will continue writing the blog through the end of July, so that I can cover the July trade deadline, which I always enjoy covering and should be another interesting one for the Cubs. After that, the blog will remain active, in case I ever feel the need to write about the Cubs again, but I will be focusing my attention on other pursuits.

One such pursuit is writing about my true passion, fantasy baseball. I am currently writing 2 weekly articles for Full Spectrum Baseball, in which I analyze the pitching matchups each week. These will be posted every Saturday (NL) and Sunday (AL) morning.

I also will maintain my recently created MLB Composite Prospect Index site, with semi-annual updates to the prospect listings.

Finally, I may revive my Future Closers blog that had a short-lived existence last year, before other things got in the way or I may combine it and the MLB CPI into one site.

In the meantime, my farewell tour begins....

CBGB will be tweeting live from opening day!

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 02:51:00 +0000

In a first for me and CBGB, I will be tweeting live updates from opening day tomorrow, starting at around 12:30 PM.

You can follow my tweets on the blog or on twitter @BillyGoatBlog

Hope everyone is as excited about opening day as I am.

Recapping the Spring Training Battles.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 02:45:00 +0000

Over the last several weeks, I took a look at four of the Cubs Spring Training Battles. Now that the battles are over and the dust has settled, let's take a look at the victors.

Spring Training Battle #1: Starting Rotation

I originally predicted a rotation of Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Randy Wells and Chris Volstad. The battle was for the last two spots between Wells, Volstad, Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood.

Samardzija and Volstad ended up beating out Wells and Wood, but the biggest surprise here is that the Cubs sent Wells down to the minors. It was thought that the loser would be sent to the bullpen to be a long reliever. However, the Cubs felt it better to keep Wells stretched out at AAA.

Spring Training Battle #2: Second Base

This really ended up being a non-battle. The second base job was Darwin Barney's to lose and he did nothing this Spring to warrant a change. If anything, he solidified his starting job, hitting .404 with 10 doubles in 20 games.

It was thought that the Cubs considered Barney more of a utility player and that newcomer Adrian Cardenas would have a chance to beat him out for the job. However, despite hitting .286/.355/.643 this Spring, Cardenas will start the year at AAA.

Spring Training Battle #3: The Bench

This was really two battles, utility infielder and backup catcher. I predicted that Steve Clevenger would win the backup catcher spot and that Blake DeWitt would be traded with Afredo Amezaga earning the utility spot.

While Clevenger won the backup spot, allowing Welington Castillo to get regular playing time in AAA, DeWitt won the utility role. In addition, the Cubs recently picked up Luis Valbuena off waivers from Toronto and will keep him on the active roster to avoid exposing him to waivers. Valbuena is a career .226/.286/.344 hitter in the majors and hit .302/.372/.476 with 17 homeruns in AAA last year.

Spring Training Battle #4: Bullpen

The final spots in the bullpen are usually hard to predict because there are various factors that come into play, such as Rule 5 picks and who is out of options, in addition to the normal statistics. As of now, it appears that Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, James Russell, Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo and Lendy Castillo will start the season in the pen, beating out the likes of Scott Maine, Rodrigo Lopez and Manuel Corpas.

Thus, with the battles over, here is the Cubs opening day roster:

Starting Lineup

C - Geovany Soto
1B - Bryan LaHair
2B - Darwin Barney
SS - Starlin Castro
3B - Ian Stewart
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Marlon Byrd
RF - David DeJesus

Bench

C - Steve Clevenger
UT - Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, Luis Valbuena
OF - Tony Campana, Reed Johnson

Starting Rotation

Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Paul Maholm
Jeff Samardzija
Chris Volstad

Bullpen

Closer - Carlos Marmol
Setup - Kerry Wood, James Russell
Middle - Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Lendy Castillo

Finally, be sure to follow me live tomorrow as I Tweet from Cubs opening day. You can follow my tweets right here on the blog or on Twitter @BillyGoatBlog

Spring Training Battle #4: The Bullpen

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 21:51:00 +0000

With the trade of Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija likely locking up a spot in the starting rotation, the Cubs bullpen has lost two of its key members from 2011. Who will fill their voids is anybody's guess.

Let's start with what we do know. The Cubs have 7 bullpen spots to fill, two of which, barring injury, are earmarked for closer Carlos Marmol and setup man Kerry Wood. After that, things get murkier.

Its likely that the loser of the battle for the 5th starter spot will end up in the bullpen. If that decision were made today, Randy Wells would be your man. Chris Volstad has outpitched him so far this spring and Wells has more experience coming out of the pen.

Rodrigo Lopez could also be a candidate for the pen, as he has pitched well this spring and filled in nicely for the Cubs last year when their rotation was beset by injuries. However, as he is on a minor league contract, the Cubs will likely send him to AAA to keep him stretched out in case injuries hit again.

The Cubs will likely carry at least one lefthander in the pen and the leading candidate at this point is Scott Maine. Maine only has 20 innings of major league experience, but has good minor league stats and has given up only one earned run in 5.2 IP so far this spring.

Righthander Rafael Dolis is also a leading candidate for the pen. He has yet to give up a run this spring and pitched well coming out of the pen for AA Tennessee last year. He is not a high strikeout guy, but keeps the ball on the ground and would be good for those situations when you need a double-play.

Rule 5 pick Lendy Castillo has impressed Cubs management and, seeing as the Cubs are rebuilding, they could carry him on the active roster for the year so that they don't lose him. He has not pitched above A ball, but has shown enough this spring that he may be worth keeping around.

Lefty James Russell pitched 67.2 innings with the Cubs in 2011 and could be the club's second lefthander out of the pen. While he is not a dominant pitcher, he showed improvement last year, dropping his ERA from 4.96 in 2010 to 4.12 in 2011.

Casey Coleman is seemingly out of consideration for the starting rotation, but could still be a useful arm out of the pen. However, like Rodrigo Lopez, the Cubs may want to keep him stretched out at AAA in case of emergency.

Manuel Corpas, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery in August 2010, has had a nice spring, giving up 3 runs while striking out 7 in 6 IP. However, he is currently off the 40 man roster and the Cubs may want him to begin the year at AAA Iowa to make sure he is healthy before bringing him back to the majors.

Marcos Mateo pitched pretty well for the Cubs down the stretch last year, with a 4.30 ERA and 25 K's in 23 IP. He hasn't had a particularly strong spring, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 6 IP and could be ticketed back to AAA to start the year.

38 year old LOOGY Trever Miller is another lefty option for the pen. He was signed on a minor league deal and hasn't been particularly effective this spring. He could be a good mentor to youngsters like Scott Maine, but I don't see him making the squad.

A final option is Blake Parker, who has put up some decent stats in the minors (3.00 ERA and 323 K's in 300 IP), but has yet to get a taste of the big leagues. He's given up 5 runs in 8.1 IP this spring, which may not be good enough to earn him a spot.

Prediction

The Cubs will probably go with a bullpen of Marmol, Wood, Wells, Maine, Dolis, Castillo and Parker, at least to start the season. For those of you in fantasy leagues, Marmol and Wood are the only ones to concern yourself with, but Dolis is intriguing as a potential closer-in-waiting.

Should we be concerned about Carlos Marmol?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 21:02:00 +0000

Let's face it, Carlos Marmol is having a tough Spring. In 5.1 IP, he has allowed 7 hits, 4 walks, 3 hit batters and 7 earned runs. Sounds more like a pitching line from Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh that that of the Cubs closer.

To add injury to insult, Marmol was removed from yesterday's outing due to cramping in his hand. Marmol was sent for a precautionary MRI, which, according to Carrie Muskat, revealed no nerve damage.

So, what is the cause of Marmol's struggles? Well, if the MRI is correct, we can rule out a hidden injury. Perhaps its just a matter of Carlos readjusting after scrapping his cutter and, to be fair, he has made 3 straight scoreless appearances.

Let's face it, Marmol is probably going to be a hot and cold pitcher for his entire career. He goes through periods where he cannot find the plate and then others where he is lights out. He will probably give Manager Dale Sveum and Pitching Coach Chris Bosio ulcers before its all said and done and its quite possible that he could be traded this July.

For now though, I wouldn't be too concerned about Marmol. It is still spring after all and the stats don't mean as much as getting your work in. But, if his struggles carry over into the regular season, perhaps its time to start auditioning new pitchers for the closer role, as Marmol should not be in the Cubs long-term plans.

Spring Training Battle #3: The Bench

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 02:41:00 +0000

With opening day a little over two weeks away, players are starting to sweat out the final cuts as crunch time approaches. The Cubs starting lineup is pretty much set, with C Geovany Soto, 1B Bryan LaHair, 2B Darwin Barney, SS Starlin Castro, 3B Ian Stewart, LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Marlon Byrd and RF David DeJesus.

However, there are still battles to be won or lost for the final bench spots. It appears that Joe Mather has beaten out Tony Campana for the 5th outfield spot (with Reed Johnson being the 4th outfielder) and Jeff Baker will man one of the UT spots. That leaves one backup infielder and the backup catcher to be decided.

Utility Infield Spot

As of right now, Blake DeWitt appears to have the edge in this battle over Alfredo Amezaga and Adrian Cardenas. DeWitt has hit .333/.419/.519 this spring albeit in just 27 at bats, but is also a career .260 hitter in the majors. He primarily plays second and third, which would be OK as Baker can backup at first and Barney can backup at short.

The problem with DeWitt is that he is no longer on the Cubs' 40 man roster, as he was designated for assignment when the Cubs claimed Cardenas over the winter. This may be why rumors are floating around that the Cubs are looking to trade DeWitt.

If DeWitt is traded, then the choice comes down to Amezaga and Cardenas. Amezaga has major league experience, hitting .247/.307/.333 in 9 seasons (1408 at bats). He is capable of playing short and might make more sense than using Barney as a backup to Castro.

Cardenas, on the other hand, has no major league experience, but has hit .303/.368/.413 in the minors and is also capable of playing short.

It may come down to who hits better this spring, in which case Amezaga is the clear favorite, as he has hit .417/.481/.500 versus Cardenas' .231/.310/.538.

Prediction: DeWitt is traded to the Phillies and Amezaga wins the utility spot, with Cardenas beginning the year at AAA.

Backup Catcher

This is basically a two horse race between Steve Clevenger and Welington Castillo. Clevenger is a career .308/.369/.421 hitter in the minors and is hitting .320/.345/.640 so far this spring. His defense is a bit suspect as he has only thrown out runners at a 28% rate in his minor league career. However, he does have one other thing going for him in that he hits lefthanded, while Soto and Castillo are righties.

Castillo is a career .265/.323/.430 hitter in the minors, but is considered better defensively and throws out runners at a 37% clip. He is hitting .346/.393/.538 this spring.

My thinking here is that the Cubs could eventually trade Soto and therefore need to develop Castillo as his potential replacement. Thus, they are more likely to send him down to AAA where he can get regular playing time. That, combined with Clevenger's stronger minor league hitting record and his left handedness, makes Clevenger the likely choice as the backup.

Prediction: Steve Clevenger will backup Soto to start the season. However, Soto will be traded in July and Castillo will take over the starting role at that time.

Thus, the bench will consist of Jeff Baker, Alfredo Amezaga, Reed Johnson, Joe Mather and Steve Clevenger. Next up, I will take a look at the Cubs bullpen battle.

Jeff Samardzija is turning the Cubs pitching plans upside down.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 02:08:00 +0000

Per Paul Sullivan, Dale Sveum says that Jeff Samardzija is a near lock for the rotation. Which means that the final rotation spot comes down to Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, Rodrigo Lopez and Travis Wood.

I started this spring with the prediction that the Cubs would start the season with Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Randy Wells and Chris Volstad in the rotation, with Samardzija in the pen and Wood in AAA. However, I have been pleasantly surprised by Samardzija's performance so far and feel he deserves a spot in the rotation.

There's no doubt that Shark has some of the best stuff of all the Cubs pitchers, his problem has always been controlling it. However, with zero walks in now 10 spring innings, it appears that he has learned to harness his stuff better.

But that leaves us with the question of who will win the 5th spot and what will become of the losers.

Well, with Travis Wood getting shelled again today, we can pretty much rule him out and Lopez was signed to a minor league deal as pitching depth and is likely to start the season in AAA.

Thus it comes down to Wells or Volstad.

Both have pitched well this spring and are equally deserving of the 5th spot. So, it could come down to who the Cubs think would do better in the long reliever role.

Neither Wells nor Volstad have much experience relieving in the majors. Wells has 4 relief appearances to his credit, all in 2008, while Volstad only has one relief appearance.

However, Wells did have 101 games as a reliever in the minors (Volstad only had 1) and thus could be more comfortable making the switch. Of course, the Cubs could also trade Wells, as he was rumored to be on the block over the winter.

In any case, Samardzija has turned what should have been an easy decision into a difficult one. A nice problem to have.

Spring Training Battle update: Jeff Samardzija and Chris Volstad looking good

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 21:30:00 +0000

I know its still early and most of the Cubs starters have made two (or fewer) starts, but so far I have been impressed with the performances of Jeff Samardzija and Chris Volstad and they may have taken the lead for the last two rotation spots.

Samardzija, despite giving up 2 runs in 3 innings his last time out, has allowed just those 2 runs in 6 IP so far, while striking out 6. However, that is not what impresses me the most. What does impress me is that he has 0, yes ZERO, walks. This is a guy who has averaged 5.3 BB/9 in his career, including a 5.1 mark last year in his "breakout" year. If he keeps this up, it only bodes well for the Cubs and their starting rotation.

Volstad has been equally impressive, giving up no runs and just 3 hits in his 6 IP. His sinker has been working well, giving him a 2.50 GO/AO ratio so far to go along with 4 K's. Those of you thinking he was just a throw-in in the Carlos Zambrano trade may have to think again.

While those two may have a leg up on the competition, Randy Wells has been doing his best to keep up. Including today's start, in which he shut out the Brewers over 3 IP, giving up just 2 hits, Wells has now pitched 5.2 scoreless innings. He's not missing many bats, as he only has 1 K so far, but has been working his sinker as well, with a GO/AO ratio of 5.0.

On the other end of the spectrum, its looking more and more like Travis Wood will be starting the year in AAA. After giving up one run on 3 hits and 2 walks his first time out, Wood was lit up today, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) in 0.1 IP. There is still time for him to turn things around, but he has to put together some solid starts to get back into the picture.

So, with 3 weeks to go before opening day, here is how the rotation is shaping up:

Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Paul Maholm
Jeff Samardzija
Chris Volstad

Randy Wells is right there with Samardzija and Volstad for the final two spots in the rotation, but if he loses out he could start the season in the bullpen (or perhaps with another team).

In any case, the Cubs may have a difficult decision looming. Stay tuned....

Projecting the National League Central Standings

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 03:30:00 +0000

As a follow up to the article I posted back on January 15, where I used projected stats and Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation formula to predict the Cubs record for 2012, I decided to take it a step further and try to predict the standings for the NL Central, following the same methodology. In addition, it gave me a chance to update the predicted wins for the Cubs, based on the updated projections for their hitters and pitchers.

Like before, I used the projections of BaseballHQ.com for each team, removed the worst hitters and pitchers to get down to around 5500 at bats and 1450 IP, which are the team averages for the NL for 2011. These are then plugged into the Pythagorean expectation formula to get that team's projected winning percentage, which, when applied to 162 games, gives that teams projected wins (and losses) for the year.

Thus, without further ado, here are the projected standings for the NL Central:

	Runs	Runs	Projected	Projected
	Scored	Allowed	Wins	Losses	Win %
Milwaukee	761	653	93	69	0.574
Cincinnati	754	675	90	72	0.556
St. Louis	716	657	88	74	0.543
Pittsburgh	662	722	74	88	0.457
Chicago	666	732	73	89	0.451
Houston	629	721	70	90	0.432

As you can see from the above, there is basically a 3 team race for first and a 3 team race for last. About what we would expect, given the level of talent on each team. Before doing this analysis, I would have predicted the Reds to finish first in the division, based on their offseason moves and the Cardinals (Albert Pujols) and Brewers (Prince Fielder) losing big pieces of their respective offenses.

The Cubs runs scored and runs allowed changed only slightly from the 665 and 736 predicted previously, but it still results in only 73 wins. I actually expect the Astros to be worse than predicted above and would be surprised if they win more than 65 games, so the Cubs will probably battle the Pirates for 4th, just like in 2011.

What to make of Bryan LaHair?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 04:09:00 +0000

Things are finally looking up for Chicago Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair.

After spending 5 1/2 years at AAA, LaHair is finally getting his shot. Call it being in the right place at the right time, but the Cubs, deep into a rebuilding process, have the luxury of giving LaHair a chance to prove himself at the major league level. Something that hasn't happened since he played 45 games for Seattle back in 2008.

The Cubs haven't always been in a position to give players a shot like this. Back in 2008, the Cubs gave little known infielder Casey McGehee just 9 games at the major league level to "prove himself", he failed and the Cubs put him on waivers after the season. Milwaukee claimed him and he rewarded the Brewers with two solid years at third, with an OPS over .800, before falling a bit flat last year.

What can we expect from Bryan LaHair? Short answer, hell if I know, but I'm willing to try to figure it out.

In 9 minor league seasons, LaHair has a career slash line of .295/.362/.503, including .297/.368/.528 in 6 years at AAA. Granted, all of those years at AAA have been in the hitter friendly PCL.

In 65 major league games, LaHair has hit .265/.335/.395, including a .288/.377/.508 line in just 59 at bats last year. He has done ok, but its not a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions.

He put up some monstrous numbers last year at Iowa, with a .331/.405/.664 line, including 38 homers in just 456 at bats. Using one of the numerous Major League Equivalency calculators onine, that projects to a .267/.331/.505 line with 28 homers, pretty good production for a first baseman.

However, 2011 was LaHair's career year in AAA, which skews the number some. Let's take a look at his MLE, based on his average AAA season, even taking into account the ballpark affects of playing in Tacoma, which is not as hitter friendly as Iowa.

In the equivalent of 3 years at Tacoma, LaHair averaged a .284/.352/.480 line with 20 homers, which produces a MLE of .251/.307/.406 with 16 homers. In 2 years at Iowa, LaHair averaged a .320/.396/.613 line with 32 homers, which produces a .259/.323/.470 MLE. Averaging the MLE's together gives one a .254/.311/.436 line with 20 homers, which is in line with what Minor League Ball projects for him (.250/.330/.450 with 20 homers), assuming he gets enough at bats.

Overall, not bad, but not exactly great numbers. This is pretty much what Tyler Colvin produced for the Cubs in 2010, at age 24, which may be enough to keep Anthony Rizzo in the minors until September.

If your looking for hope for bigger and better things, Baseball Prospectus, using their PECOTA system, lists his comparables as Leon Durham, Richie Sexson and David Ortiz. I certainly don't see LaHair turning into the next David Ortiz, but I think most Cubs fans would be happy with Durham's career line of .277/.356/.477 (minus the error in the 1984 NLCS).

Based on the above, I'm going to project that LaHair gets around 450 at bats this year, hits roughly .260/.325/.475 with 20+ homeruns (and 30+ doubles). The Cubs will then sell high on him next winter and use him to acquire a pitcher.

Spring Training Battle #2: Second Base

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 04:23:00 +0000

After taking a look at the starting pitching battle last week, its time to look at the other big battle shaping up for this spring, the battle for the second base job.

Darwin Barney is the incumbent, but there are questions about his ability and whether he would be better suited for an utility position. Adrian Cardenas, recently acquired off waivers from the Oakland A's, should be Barney's main competition for the job, but there are questions about his defense. Meanwhile, Blake DeWitt, who was demoted to AAA Iowa to make room for Cardenas on the 40-man roster, could still factor into the equation.

Here's a look at what each of them bring to the table:

Darwin Barney

Barney hit a respectable .276 in 2011, but he seemed to wear down as the season progressed, hitting only .238 in the second half, compared to .306 in the first half. In addition, he drew only 22 walks in 581 plate appearances, which produce only a .313 OBP for the year. He put together a decent year defensively, with a .981 fielding percentage and a 4.50 range factor, both of which put him in the middle of the pack in the NL. He needs to cut down on his errors, as his 12 error in 2011 ranked 4th in the NL, but some of that can be attributed to rookie mistakes. The job is probably his to lose, but as the primary backup to Starlin Castro at short, the Cubs are probably wondering if he can do both.

Adrian Cardenas

A career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, the former first round pick certainly has shown an ability to hit in the minors. In fact his career minor league numbers are superior to those of Barney (.287/.335/.376). His career .976 fielding percentage and 4.54 range factor in the minors is comparable to Barney's 2011 stats, however Barney was still transitioning to the second base role after playing mostly shortstop in the minors. Cardenas has also played short, third and outfield in the minors and could be considered a utility type as well.

Blake DeWitt

Gone but not forgotten, DeWitt will be battling for any role he can get with the Cubs, but his best chance may be to overtake Barney or Cardenas for the second base job. The main piece acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot trade, DeWitt hasn't shown much with the Cubs the last two years, hitting just .258/.309/.396. His career fielding percentage at second of .979 is comparable to those of Barney and Cardenas, but his range factor of 4.29 is a bit lower. He is fighting a major uphill battle and one that he likely won't win.

Prediction

Barney will likely begin the season as the starting second baseman, with Cardenas filling the utility role. However, if he struggles, look for Cardenas to get a shot.

Revisiting the Matt Garza trade, again.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 22:19:00 +0000

Phil Rogers gets it.

A little over a year ago I was so miffed by the Cubs giving up 5 players, including 3 of their Top 10 prospects, for Matt Garza (and a prospect) that I wrote not ONE, but TWO articles criticizing the move.

Now the Cubs are in between a rock and a hard place concerning Garza, they can either sign him to an extension, at the risk of him becoming the next Carlos Zambrano, or they can trade him and get less in return than they gave up.

Basically, on his way out the door, Jim Hendry made sure that he made at least one more move to screw up the Cubs' future.

You can say that the Cubs got the better end of the deal, because none of the players they gave up had much impact in 2011, while Garza was the Cubs' best starter. But that is not the point.

The point is that, even with Garza, the Cubs finished in 5th place in the NL Central, while the Tampa Rays made the playoffs. Sure, none of the players the Cubs gave up really helped the Rays win, but they improved the team's minor league depth and, if just one of the players becomes an above average regular for the Rays, it will have been worth it.

The Rays were able to deal Garza, because they had young stud Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings. When was the last time the Cubs were able to trade a starting pitcher because they had a younger (and better) pitcher waiting in the wings?

The Cubs need to turn their minor league system around so that they are the ones trading the Garza's of the world for prospects and, with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer at the helm, it appears that they are on the right track.

The next 3 to 5 years will be the true test of the new regime and we, as fans, need to be patient for this new approach to bear fruit. Just as the team is doing, we need to get out of the "win now" way of thinking and allow the process of building from within to work.