Although Ted Lilly is determined to pitch in a Cactus league game, its unlikely he will be ready by the start of the season.  Thus, the Cubs will need to find a pitcher to fill in while Lilly recovers as well as a 5th starter.

The 3 main contenders are Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija, who all pitched well yesterday, in the opening round of the competition.  Carlos Silva might also be considered a contender for the rotation, but after getting rocked in his spring debut, I certainly hope not.

So, here are the contenders to fill out the rotation:

Tom Gorzelanny – Gorzelanny split time between starter and reliever for the Cubs, after being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline, making 7 starts and 6 relief appearances.  He didn’t fare particularly well in either role.  Although he was 4-2 as a starter, he had a 5.40 ERA and gave up 35 hits, including 5 HR’s in 31.2 IP.  However, he did manage to strikeout 35 batters in that time.  As a reliever, he had a 6.75 ERA in 6.2 IP.

For his career, Gorzelanny has a 4.78 ERA as a starter in 404.2 IP.  He has a 6.88 ERA as a reliever, albeit in only 17 IP.  He has fared well against lefties, holding them to a .232 average and could be a lefty specialist in the bullpen if he doesn’t make the rotation.

Sean Marshall – Marshall spent most of the year in the bullpen for the Cubs last season, appearing in 46 games as a reliever.  But he did make 9 starts for the Cubs while filling in during Zambrano’s injury.  He posted a nice 3.23 ERA as a reliever for the Cubs in 39 IP, while sporting an ugly 5.24 ERA as a starter.

For his career, he has a 3.15 ERA as a reliever and a 4.86 ERA as a starter.  He also has fared well against lefthanders, holding them to a .243 average in his career.

Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija has bounced back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation in both the minors and majors the last few years.  He pitched effectively down the stretch in 2008 as a reliever, posting a 2.28 ERA in 27.2 IP during the Cubs pennant drive.  However, he struggled in 2008, posting a 7.53 ERA in 34.2 IP.

After stating that Samardzija would be a starting pitcher for 2010, the Cubs backed that up by getting Samardzija some starts in winter ball.  He pitched well and Lou Piniella has said he that he wants Samardzija to win the job.

Prediction

A lot of this could depend on whether the Cubs can find another lefty for the pen to go along with John Grabow.  I think that Piniella would prefer to have two lefties in the pen and unless either John Gaub, J.R. Mathes or James Russell can win the job, Piniella will stick either Gorzelanny or Marshall back in the pen.

I think the Cubs would be best served if Samardzija and Marshall are in the rotation and Gorzelanny is in the pen.  However, I predict that Piniella will go with Marshall in the pen, where he has fared better under Piniella’s watch, and stick Gorzelanny and Samardzija in the rotation.  But, if Gaub or one of the other lefty relievers impresses this spring, Samardzija may end up in AAA.

First off, the Cubs were spanked by the White Sox 15-3 on Saturday, as rotation hopeful Carlos Silva was rocked for 6 runs in 2 IP.  Silva gave up 7 hits, including 2 HR’s in the “effort”.  Mark’s Remarks – If Silva even sniffs the rotation this year, it will be a long one for the Cubs.

Adding injury to insult, an MRI discovered that Angel Guzman has a significant ligament tear and instability in his pitching shoulder.  This is a potential career ending injury.  Guzman plans to have surgery on the shoulder, despite the fact that few pitchers have come back from this type of surgery.  Mark’s Remarks – tough break for one of the Cubs better relief pitchers.  I wish him all the best.  This only emphasizes the importance of the Cubs finding some more pitching depth.

As for the Cubs hot prospect, Starlin Castro, despite an injury to backup shortstop Andres Blanco and Castro’s good start in his first few games (3 for 8 with a double and triple), Lou Piniella said it is unlikely that Castro starts the season in the majors.  “No, no,” he said. “Starlin is going to start the season in Triple-A (Iowa) and play. The only way Starlin would come into this equation, and I’ve said this before, is if he shows he’s ready to play here and there’s a problem physically with Theriot.”  Mark’s Remarks – He may not start the season in the majors, but he is likely to finish the season in the majors (I’m predicting a callup on June 1st).

Finally, to end this news wrapup on a positive note, both Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez have reported no pain in early play.  Soriano, who’s recovering from knee surgery, and Ramirez, who missed 2 months with a shoulder injury and played the rest of the season in pain, both appear to be at or near 100%.  Mark’s Remarks – This is probably the most important news of all as Soriano and Ramirez are two of the biggest cogs that make the Cubs offense click.

This is what he said:

“Two years ago, I played, and I was good,” Bradley said. “I go to Chicago, not good. I’ve been good my whole career. So, obviously, it was something with Chicago, not me.”

He added: “Just no communication. I never hit more than 22 homers in my career, and all of a sudden I get to Chicago and they expect me to hit 30. It doesn’t make sense. History tells you I’m not going to hit that many. Just a lot of things that try to make me a player I’m not.”

Here’s my reply to Mr. Bradley:

Dear Mr. Bradley:

Thank you for taking the time out of your preparations for the upcoming season to once again spout off again about the fine city of Chicago. It sounds as if your stay here was an unpleasant one, as I am sure it was for many of the Cubs fans who watched you play.

As hard as it may be for you to understand, Cubs fans really do want to see their teams and players succeed.  They are just tired of losing and even more tired of the excuses for losing.

Your attitude reminds many Cubs fans of the 2004 team, who blamed their failure to win the wildcard on everyone but themselves.   Steve Stone put it nicely (before he was forced out as an announcer):

“You want the truth. You can’t handle the truth,” Stone said at the time. “The truth of this situation is an extremely talented bunch of guys who want to look at all directions except where they should really look and kind of make excuses for what happened.  At the end of the day, boys, don’t tell me how rough the water is, you bring in the ship.”

You say that Cubs fans had unrealistic expectations for you, expecting you to hit 30 HR’s, when you have never hit more than 22 in a season.  I’m not sure what fans you are referring to, but I know I never expected you to hit 30 HR’s.  Heck, I was just hoping you would play 30 games (given your injury history).

You have been a clubhouse cancer your entire career and you were a clubhouse cancer here in Chicago.  So maybe, just maybe, you should turn that finger of yours inwards for once.

Sincerely,

Mark Sherrard

Cubs Correspondent

Fanball.com

This week, I’ll take a look at the candidates for the second base job and give my prediction as to who will win.

Jeff Baker

Jeff Baker came over in a trade with Colorado last season and hit well for the Cubs, posting a .305/.362/.425 line in 203 AB’s.  Based on that and a poor 2009 season from Mike Fontenot (.236/.301/.377), Baker has the edge heading into the Spring.

However, one thing to keep an eye on in the spring and early in the season is that Baker has been a slow starter so far in his career, hitting .237/.297/.400 in 350 first half AB’s, including .194/.241/.326 in March/April.

Mike Fontenot

After hitting .291 with 12 HR’s in his first two years in the majors (477 AB’s), Fontenot came crashing down to earth in 2009.

Despite his struggles, Fontenot has fared pretty well against righthanders in his career (.272/.348/.435).  Although Baker has done OK against righthanders (.262/.316/.411 in his career), he does most of his damage against lefthanders (.285/.346/.543).

So, its possible that, if Baker struggles, Fontenot could work himself into the lion’s share of a platoon with Baker.

Starlin Castro

The darkhorse in this race is Castro.  He impressed the brass with his fine hitting at high A and AA last year, to the tune of .299/.342/.392.  Castro then followed that up with an even more impressive stint in the Arizona Fall League, putting up a line of .376/.396/.475.

Castro is a shortstop by trade and if he beats out Baker and Fontenot, he will start at short with Theriot moving to second.  Castro makes good contact (89%), has good speed and is a strong defender, however its unlikely that he’ll beat out the duo of Baker and Fontenot, with just 111 AB’s above high A.

Chances are he’ll start the year in AAA and if either Theriot or one of the second basemen get injured, Castro will be the first one called up.

My Take

None of the Cubs options at second are particularly strong and it may just come down to who hits the best in spring training.

I believe that Baker will win the job, but could be on a short leash.  If he struggles at the start of the season, look for Fontenot to take over against righthanders.

Castro will likely spend most of the year at AAA, but if both Fontenot and Baker struggle, Castro could be called up as early as May.

I would project about 350 AB’s for Baker, 250 for Fontenot and 50 for Castro (mostly in September).

The Cubs showed some interest in veteran Kiko Calero, but shied away due to injury concerns and contract demands.

The Cubs have also kicked the tires on Padres reliever Luke Gregerson and Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor (both of whom they would have to acquire via trade), however nothing is imminent on those fronts.  The Padres would be more willing to trade Heath Bell, but his salary makes him an unlikely target for the Cubs.

Given the choice, I would probably go with Gregerson over Frasor and Calero.  However, seeing as he’s the youngest of the three and had a very good first year in the majors, the Padres asking price will likely be pretty high for Gregerson.  Frasor, although not as young, is coming off a strong season and would also cost the Cubs a bit in terms of prospects.  Calero is a good pitcher and only costs the Cubs money, but its money the Cubs don’t really have to spend.

It will probably come down to the Cubs signing the best pitcher they can get on a minor league deal and hoping for the best.  Some candidates include Jason Isringhausen, Tom Gordon, Jorge Julio, Troy Percival and Julian Tavarez.  All of these pitchers have closed in the past, but remain on the market due to age/injury concerns.

First off, here are the predicted standings:

As you can see, 4 out of the 6 correspondents picked the Cardinals to win the division.  No real surprise there.  The surprise is that two picked the Cubs to win the division.  After last years’ dismal showing, very few people are predicting the Cubs to contend this year (myself included).  But as baseball continues to show us, the best team on paper doesn’t always win.

This next section is the awards for the division, including the MVPNP (Most Valuable Player Not Pujols).

Ryan Braun was an unanimous choice for MVPNP and deservedly so.  Its also no surprise that the Cardinals pitching tandem of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright got 4 out of the 6 votes for Cy Young.  What is surprising is that Carlos Zambrano received a vote for Cy Young.  I’m sure Cubs fans would be happy if he pitched well enough to be considered for any kind of award, as it would probably mean the Cubs are in contention.

ROY went to Alcides Escobar and he certainly is the favorite.  I went out on a limb in picking Starlin Castro, as I figured that rarely does the favorite win this award and I just like Castro’s upside.

The newcomer of the year was split between Randy Wolf and Xavier Nady, with 2 votes apiece.  I think Wolf will have a good year in Houston, as he should have a pretty good offense behind him in Milwaukee.  Nady is also a good choice and was second on my list.  However, he first must overcome his injury and Kosuke Fukudome to have an impact.

As for the All Stars, Geovany Soto and Yadier Molina split the votes for catcher, which is somewhat surprising considering that Molina is the best defensive catcher in the division and have been pretty consistent offensively.  Soto, on the other hand, has to prove that 2008 was not a fluke

Albert Pujols, Brandon Phillips, Alcides Escobar and Aramis Ramirez were the majority vote getters for the infield All-Stars, with Scott Rolen at third and Rickie Weeks at second also getting votes.  I think Ramirez is the best third baseman in the division, but if he gets hurt again, Rolen can certainly overtake him.  Weeks can certainly put up numbers similar to Phillips, but it remains to be seen if he can put it all together and stay healthy for a full season.

In the outfield, Ryan Braun was the unanimous choice in left (no surprise as he was also the MVPNP).  Andrew McCutchen received 5 out of 6 votes for center and if last year is a good indication of his abilities, he is a star in the making.

Right field was a little more cloudy for all of us as Jay Bruce led the way with 3 votes, followed by my pick of Hunter Pence with 2 and Ryan Ludwick with 1.  Bruce probably has the most upside of the 3, but he has struggled to hit for average.  Pence has put up some decent numbers the last few years, but he doesn’t have the power of Bruce.  Ludwick came back to earth a bit after his breakout season in 2008, but he could be in line for another uptick with a better supporting cast this year (i.e. Matt Holliday).

Overall, not many surprises.  Please check out the other team blogs for their takes on the picks.

Which brings us to the Cubs and their first base situation.  Derrek Lee is a free agent after this season.  Adrian Gonzalez is signed through 2011, so it appears to be a potential match, if the Padres don’t trade him this year.

The Friarhood lists the following Cubs prospects as potential targets:  Starlin Castro, Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson, Hak-Ju Lee, Logan Watkins and Chris Carpenter, basically 8 of the Cubs top 10 prospects.

First, let’s talk about Gonzalez.  He is one of the best first basemen in the league and has increased his homerun totals each year, despite playing in one of the worst hitting parks in the majors.  Can you imagine what kind of HR totals he could have at Wrigley?

In addition, he is one of the better defensive first basemen in the league, per Fangraphs, his UZR rating of 3.8 is almost identical to that of Derrek Lee (3.7).  Add to that he is 7 years younger than Lee and has more power and you would have to consider him an upgrade at first.

The problem then becomes Gonzalez’s contract.  If the Cubs are going to give up some of their best prospects for the guy, they will probably want to make signing him to an extension part of the deal.  With Derrek Lee’s contract of $13 million coming off the books, the Cubs would have some money to work with (Gonzalez’s option for 2011 is worth $5.5 million).

It would probably take a 6-7 year contract worth about $15-16 million per year to sign him, but it would be worth it (or at least it is money better spent than the Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley contracts), as the Cubs would be getting the lefthanded bat they so desperately need.

I don’t think the Cubs should give up Starlin Castro to acquire Gonzalez, but I would be willing to trade 3 or 4 of those other guys to land him.  There won’t be any better free agent first basemen available after this year, so if it takes giving up some prospects to get one of the best in the business, I say do it.

The Cubs 5 were as follows:

1. Starlin Castro #16
2. Josh Vitters #70
3. Brett Jackson #74
4. Andrew Cashner #95
5. Jay Jackson #98

Not a very top heavy group, but a good showing nonetheless and it shows improvement from last year’s Top 100, when the Cubs only had two prospects make the list (Vitters (51) and Jeff Samardzija (79)).

After a steady decline from ranking as the 10th best minor league system in 2005 (by Baseball America) then dropping all the way to 27th last year, the Cubs farm system bounced back to rank 15th in 2010, thanks to some solid drafts the last few years.

The key is for the Cubs to start using their minor leaguers to plug holes in their lineup instead of always overpaying for the over-the-hill veteran.  They’ve got some good pieces that can help them down the road, but its uncertain if there will be any room for some of them with the overpaid veterans in their way.

In any case, its good to see the Cubs building up their farm system.

Recently, Fanball.com (you know, the guys that I work for) posted a Fantasy 50 segment on Ted Lilly where Kyle Elfrink gives his take on what to expect from Lilly for 2010.

You can check out the segment below.

Kyle points out that, with Lilly coming off shoulder surgery and recently experiencing knee pain, you cannot count on him to provide his usual 30+ starts this year.  In fact, before the knee issue, Lilly was not expected back until late April or early May.

Although the MRI on his knee results came back clean, this still represents a setback for Lilly.  The knee problems he had last year may have led to his shoulder problems, as he tried to overcompensate for the knee issues.  So, one can expect the Cubs to be extra careful this time around and I would say we’re looking more at a mid to late May return.

What does that mean to fantasy owners?  Well, if you are playing to win in 2010, you should avoid Lilly, as any investment in him is high risk.  However, if you are in a keeper league and are rebuilding or have a weak keeper list, Lilly could be the kind of low investment, high risk/high reward type of player that could help you contend.

Chances are he will go for around $8-10 in most auctions and could turn in a tidy profit, if he returns in May and provides 20-25 starts.  However, if he has more setbacks, you could potentially be out the $8-10 and out of contention.

If he is able to return by mid-May, I expect him to pitch around 150 innings and provide about 8 wins, an ERA around 4.00 and a whip of about 1.30.  Again, pretty good for an $8-10 investment, but I wouldn’t build my staff around him.

So, it should come as no surprise that even Cubs writers are not immune to this affliction.  Case in point, the Sun Times Gordon Wittenmyer gives us this “insight” into Carlos Zambrano “Zambrano trims pounds–and his hair–but needs to cut self-destructive tendencies.”  Mark’s Remarks – Apparently Zambrano has turned over a new leaf.  He’s lost weight and is committed to regaining his former dominant stuff.  Me, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Next Chris De Luca reports that Seattle is excited about Milton Bradley.  Mark’s Remarks – Good, because there are a number of Cubs fans and players who are excited that he’s gone.

Gordon Wittenmyer, apparently not content with his fluff on Zambrano, decided to write one on the whole team, stating that the Cubs are hungry after missing the playoffs last year.  Mark’s Remarks – I thought that it was just Zambrano who is hungry.

Not to be outdone, Chris De Luca had another gem, telling everyone who will listen that the “ring’s the thing that would set everything right after season of injuries, Bradley.”  Mark’s Remarks – Sure, winning a championship cures all ills.  Unfortunately the Cubs have been trying to do that for over 101 years.

Just in case you thought that the Sun Times was the only paper to deliver such fluff, the Tribune is not above the fluff stuff either giving us these gems.

Paul Sullivan reports that “Optimism abounds on Chicago Cubs“, stating that the “club enters spring training with high hopes but lowered expectations.”  Mark’s Remarks - Its good that they are lowering their expectations, because I don’t think anyone is picking them to go very far this year.

Sullivan also chimes in with a report that “Camp Ho-Hum would be fine with Cubs.”  Mark’s Remarks - Now that Bradley is gone, that should be fairly easy to achieve.

However, it was not all fluff during the first 5 days of Spring Training.  There was some actual news to report.  Unfortunately, it was bad news.

First, Cubs reliever Angel Guzman had arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn miniscus.  Mark’s Remarks – This makes the Cubs search for another reliever that much more important.  The Cubs are still looking at Chan Ho Park, but have competition from the Rays and Yankees.

Then, as if to pile on, Ted Lilly complained of soreness in his knee, which could possibly hinder his shoulder rehab.  Thankfully, an MRI exam showed no serious injury.  Mark’s Remarks – The Cubs better hope that their minor league pitching prospects are ready soon, because their pitching depth is dwindling rapidly.

About the only good news to come out of camp is that the Cubs won their arbitration hearing with Ryan Theriot.  Mark’s Remarks – Great the Cubs saved themselves $800,000.  Now use that money to find more pitching!