Cubs Stats

The Will To Ignore

2013-05-04T16:19:00.003-05:00

White Sox announcer Hawk Harrelson recently appeared on MLB Network, where he and Brian Kenny discussed / yelled about sabermetrics. The kerfuffle has become somewhat of a sensation, as Hawk insisted on the glory of TWTW: His freshly minted statistic called "The Will To Win." Watch here, if it pleases you:

But here is the problem: Hawk is trying too hard in a couple of areas. First, he is trying to transmute intangibles into the sphere of sabermetrics, a world dedicated to tangibles. His TWTW is moot because no sabermetrician should ever discount intangibles. To suggest sabermetrics ignores TWTW is to firstly imply TWTW is an objective quality or quantity that observers can detect with a little prudent watching.

The will to win is measured in offseasons, though. It is measured in batting cages and weight rooms. Even a broadcaster like Hawk does not have the access necessary to even begin attempting a TWTW analysis.

Hawk second problem, and by far his chief problem, is his limited knowledge of the sabermetric sphere. He has admitted to seeing the movie Moneyball, but beyond that, his understanding of sabermetrics appears as limited as his data collection of TWTW. He still assumes sabermetricians are at war with scouts, a la the early 2000s Moneyball paradigm. He has not researched his opinion. He has not approached the subject with an open mind. That is the chief problem.

Chicago Sun-Times writer Rick Morrissey came to Hawk's defense Friday night. Morrissey argued the sport of baseball has devolved into a battle for thought superiority:

Buffalo (N.Y.) News columnist Jerry Sullivan recently wrote a lovely tribute to longtime colleague Larry Felser, who had just passed away. This clause stood out: ‘‘At a time when people tweet their thoughts without filters and everyone wants to be the smartest guy in the room . . . ’’

I thought to myself: That’s it, isn’t it? The need to be the smartest guy in the room has taken over sports discussion and turned it into a cold, unwelcoming place where no attempt is made to understand the other side. There is only the attempt to crush it like an uprising.

My question is: What was it before? And what is his proof for this new environment?

If the conversation around baseball analysis has changed, it has changed away from an echo chamber that lasted over a hundred years. From the initial connection between baseball and the news, the thought gang of old school analysis went unbroken. Fringe writers like F.C. Lane and Bill James rang out like a voice in the wilderness, but the heart of analysis sieved through the sportswriter's paradigm -- and his chief objective was to create drama.

I commented on Morrissey's article, and I think it is germane enough to reprint:

[The preceding commenter] is precisely correct here. No one in the sabermetric community worth their keyboard suggests intangible do not matter, that character does not matter. Harrelson is succumbing to a strange case of strawman-phobia. He does not even bother to try to learn about sabermetrics, or what sabertmetricians say about baseball, and so he can comfortably create these mysterious, unknown beliefs about scout-hating, intangible-ignoring students of the game.

"But when Harrelson mentions that numbers can’t tell the whole story, that some people have a brighter pilot light than others, he’s an idiot."

This is a straw man argument, Morrissey. You cite the word "old" and a poster at unnamed message board. Are these the only places where Hawk is derided? Is this the most powerful vitriol coming from the sabermetric community?

Did Tom Tango call him an idiot? Did Bill James or Dave Cameron or Rob Neyer accuse him of using hocus pocus? The pillars of the sabermetric community are lamenting Harrelson's closed mind, not his unique perspective.

Do not ignore sabermetrics. If you are going to deride something and suggest it is worthless, know it first. Learn about it. TWTW is not worthless. It is subjective and unmeasurable -- and in some cases, say in that of Mr. Barry Bonds, unimportant. But intangibles are important, and we -- sabermetricians -- know this. When did we ever say otherwise?

Updating On The 5 Most Exciting Cubs

2013-04-18T09:00:00.000-05:00

In the winter, I declared my affinity for five players entering the season, five stories worth following. They were, in order of interest:

Kyuji Fujikawa: The former Hanshin Tigers closer is injured, on the 15-day DL, and apparently hurting since spring training. Despite that, he posted a 2.62 FIP and 2.98 SIERA, but his 12.48 ERA does perhaps the best job of illustrating his lack of control. His stuff never seemed not-filthy, but he fell behind hitters quickly and had to toss meatballs because the only strikes he could throw were meatballs. When he comes back, which will hopefully be soon, he will be the closer. I expect he will be impressive, too, unless he dogs it again and tries to pitch through pain.
Nate Schierholtz: Two homers and a .361/.425/.667 slash?! There's no way he maintains this 187 wRC+, but this whole experiment, this whole Free Schierholtz endeavor, is off to a wonderful start. Nate is on fire.
Edwin Jackson: I believe I've watched each of Jackson's three starts so far, and his pitching slash does a good job of showing his mixed results: 6.06 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 3.72 SIERA. I am excited about him developing into an innings-eating No. 2 or 3 starter, and I would not be surprised for all three of those numbers to normalize around 3.50 ERA/FIP/SIERA through 200+ IP.
Scott Feldman: Hoo-boy. Maybe I should have put Carlos Villanueva in this list instead? Feldman has a 6.00 ERA, 6.64 FIP, 6.12 SIERA line. His strikeout rate (8.0% K-rate) is below his walk rate (14.0% BB-rate). He will be better than this. Sooner would be better.
Ian Stewart: Naturally, Stewart got injured in the spring, like minutes after I wrote about him, and he's still yet to swing a bat or wear a glove in a game.

Okay, let's change and update this list.

Nate Schierholtz: Can he keep a solid slash after his BABIP cools down? I hope so.
Carlos Villanueva: He has an 0.67 ERA and 3.58 FIP through his first two starts, but more importantly, he's thrown a combined 14 innings through just 2 starts, and he looked impressive both times. Can he stake a permanent claim in the rotation?
Dioner Navarro: He is not good at framing pitches, blocking pitches, or throwing out runners, but he was once a top prospect because of his minor-league OBP. Last offseason, he trained with Joey Votto. Then he slammed 5 Spring Training dongers and now 2 more dongers through just 21 PA in 2013. Could his bat finally be turning legit?
Welington Castillo: The Cubs starting catcher, Castillo, presently leads the team in wins above replacement (0.4 fWAR) and has the second-best offensive numbers (145 wRC+). His moment in the sun was a long time coming, and if he can sustain this, he could cement the catching position for a many years to come. Navarro is more interesting on the merit of a possible change, but Castillo is currently solidly entrenched at the backstop -- at least in my eyes.
Kyuji Fujikawa: Given the inability of pretty much every Cubs reliever to perform at the closer position, I have to keep faith that Japan's arguably best closer of the last decade will come back and dominate. I am keeping the faith, Kyuji. Don't let me down.

Longing For Clubhouse Confidential

2013-02-28T12:18:00.002-06:00

Today on Twitter, a fellow baseball enthusiast, Nate Springfield, proposed a change to MLB.tv that, frankly, I feel needs to happen:

Third'd. RT @sky_kalkman: Yes! RT @natespringfield: I really wish my mlb.tv subscription included the MLB Network.
— Bradley Woodrum (@BradleyWoodrum) February 28, 2013

Traditional television is dying. Because of cable's inability to offer a la carte television channels, my generation (the mid-20-year-olds, as of right now) are going without cable. We are using antennas and the internet to meet our viewing desires. If I could order a seven-channel package (ESPN, WGN, MLB Network, and maybe FX, TMC, or IFC), then I would have had cable since I moved out of home.

Instead, I have never -- in my life -- paid for cable. I had it at my parent's home during high school, but starting in undergrad, I have trod the antenna/Hulu/Netflix route.

So packaging MLB Network with an MLB.tv or MLB.tv Premium account makes sense for the MLB, with respect to the changing marketplace, but it also makes sense because Clubhouse Confidence is a legitimately amazing show and I want to watch it. A lot.

Behold: These highlights.

There is no other broadcast, on earth and to my knowledge, with a higher, more competent level of discourse than CHC. So, c'mon MLB, let's get this working.

The 5 Most Exciting Cubs On The Roster

2013-02-20T10:44:00.000-06:00

Do not come to this post expecting a mathematical formula or some sophisticated method for determining players on the brink of breakout. Rather, this is a list of five players on which I have a keen interest entering Spring Training.

Some of them may have a possibly important role in the team's future. Some of them may be role players with a chance to contribute in small, but meaningful ways. Pretty much all of them are going to be the kind of fringe players toward which I am inexorably drawn.

No. 5: Ian Stewart

2012 Numbers:

.201/.292/.335
65 wRC+
0.1 WAR through 202 PA

Ian Stewart is probably not a great third baseman. Defensively, his numbers are not bad. UZR, Total Zone, and the Fan Scouting Report all say nice things. But a good defensive third baseman is kind of easy to find. And on a rebuilding team like the Cubs, a good defensive third baseman can be a 25-year-old with strong minor league numbers looking for a chance to prove himself. He doesn't need to be a 28-year-old with 1620 PA at the MLB level already.

Also, through those 1620 PA, Stewart has an 84 wRC+. Third basemen tend to be around 100 wRC+. He's got catcher numbers at a corner position.

So why the heck am I excited about Ian Stewart entering the season? Well, this is his last chance. Not just at a starting job; it very well could be one of his final opportunities to prove he can (a) stay healthy and, more importantly, (b) hit. If he struggles this season, he will likely spend the final years of his career getting long-tossed around various minor league orgs until injuries necessitate he fill a bench role for a week or two.

For Stewart, the stakes are high. His impact to the Cubs is minimal, though. If he succeeds, it means his career continues, but probably not with the team toting around Javier Baez, Junior Lake, Jeimer Candelario, and Starlin Castro. His ceiling in Chicago is stopgap, but I think the 2013 squad -- with a vat of lucky breaks (like Stewart playing well) -- could be in Wild Card contention late in the season.

If Stewart can hit well (at this point, think: 100 wRC+), maybe he adds a run or two on offense, five runs on defense, and a win through replacement value. That puts him near 2.0 WAR, which is about an average starter in the MLB. I think that would be great for Stewart, and a huge bounty for the 2013 squad.

No. 4: Scott Feldman

2012 Numbers:

5.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.95 SIERA
116 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 94 xFIP-
2.3 WAR, 0.3 RA9 Wins through 123.2 IP

Feldman, in my humblest of opinions, is the 2013 version of Paul Maholm. Feldman, like Maholm, is a pitcher whom I admired from a distance -- and a possible trade deadline bait. If the Cubs are exceeding expectations, and he himself does well too, they could keep him. His price for additional years should not be overly expensive -- certainly not beyond the Cubs' budget -- but if they decide to ship him for prospects, they still have Carlos Villanueva, Travis Wood, or Arodys Vizcaino ready and waiting for a rotation spot (depending on how Spring shakes out).

Steamer, arguably the best projection system for pitchers, forecasts a 4.21 ERA and 3.98 FIP for Feldman in 2013. If he can pitch just 175 innings in 2013 and maintain a 4.21 ERA, that would be good enough for about 2 wins. If he can do what I hope he can do -- bring the ERA to match his FIP -- that would put him in the 2.5 win region. And if he can put his knee problems far behind himself, then maybe 190 or 200 innings would not be impossible? That's close to a 3 win pitcher, all for $6 million. Not the biggest bargain, but more than great for a November pitcher (most bargain bin players come in January and February).

No. 3: Edwin Jackson

2012 Numbers:

4.03 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 3.75 SIERA
102 ERA-, 99 FIP-, 97 xFIP-
2.7 WAR, 2.5 RA9 Wins through 189.2 IP

In the 2007 season, Jackson -- then pitching for the Devil Rays -- lost 8 consecutive decisions; he began the season 0-8. I suffered through every one of those games, including the no decisions in between. My good buddy Cole, a Braves fan (what did he have to be proud about in 2007?), ribbed me about having faith in Jackson. Maybe I still have too much faith in him. But, heaven help me, I still like Edwin Jackson.

His fastball is about 1.5 mph slower now than it was in that wild 2007 season -- a wild season in more than one respect -- and his reputation has taken a decidedly positive turn since that 0-8 start, but I still like Jackson and I still feel like his back is against the wall. Pundits on both sides of the analytical aisle made uneasy remarks when the Cubs signed Jackson for four years at $13 million per year. Yes, the 2013 free agent market for pitchers should be slim, but Jackson strikes most people as an altogether unspectacular pitcher.

Jackson is changing, though, and as he enters his age-29 season, I think Cubs fans will benefit from his growing control of the strike zone. Not only is he get early strikes more often, but he is missing more bats as his slider and changeup offerings improve:

I think Edwin could not only fill the Ryan Dempster innings-eater role, but I suspect he could turn a corner over the next four years and become a solid No. 2 pitcher behind Jeff Samardzija.

No. 2: Nate Schierholtz

2012 Numbers:

.257/.321/.407
98 wRC+
0.5 WAR through 269 PA

Over his last two seasons, Nate Schierholtz has around a 125 WRC+ against right-handed pitchers. We expect Schierholtz will assume a large platoon job in right field, swapping out with the equally platoontastic Scott Hairston (another acquisition I quite appreciate).

Schierholtz enters his age-29 season in 2013, but unlike last year's fun (and mildly successful) experiment with Bryan LaHair, Schierholtz has proven MLB success on his resume. He was only worth half a win in limited playing time in 2012, but with a lefty-killer like Hairston on the bench, the Cubs could conceivably limit Schierholt's lefty exposure to even less than the 26% lefty pitcher rate he saw in 2012 (NOTE: 26% is already a low rate).

I think there is enough data to suggest Schierholtz could blossom into a useful, wholly inexpensive platoon guy in right field. And his advanced fielding numbers (UZR, TZ, FSR) all beam about his right field defense. He probably will never be an All Star, but he can help a team win while allowing money to go into different positions (like extending Samardzija or Anthony Rizzo).

No. 1: Kyuji Fujikawa

2012 Numbers:
From my FanGraphs article:

Year	Age	Tm	G	SV	IP	Fujikawa ERA	Fujikawa FIP	ERA-	FIP-
2007	26	Hanshin	71	46	83.0	1.63	1.43	42	35
2008	27	Hanshin	63	38	67.2	0.67	1.63	18	41
2009	28	Hanshin	49	25	57.2	1.25	1.95	35	49
2010	29	Hanshin	58	28	62.2	2.01	3.26	49	75
2011	30	Hanshin	56	41	51.0	1.24	1.40	41	39
2012	31	Hanshin	46	22	45.2	1.38	1.97	48	55

The minus stats are not park adjusted.

Fujikawa was Japan's Mariano Rivera. Moreover, he pitched for Matt Murton's team -- currently my favorite team, even though they are not managed too terribly well -- the Hanshin Tigers. Fujikawa, say I, is legit.

ZiPS projects a 3.38 ERA and 3.37 FIP over 50.7 IP. In terms of WAR and total team effect, Fujikawa may mean even less than Ian Stewart (somehow). But in terms of sheer awesomeness and late-career success stories, the 32-year-old reliever has me most excited. I fully expect him to wrest the closer job away from Carlos Marmol, either through trade (Marmol being traded, that is) or by means of steady success.

But, alas, as is always the case for relievers, he could bomb his way right into the minor leagues or back to Japan faster than Bryan LaHair reaches 20 homers and 50 strikeouts in Japan (I'm thinking that will take one solid week).

For now, though, he is the most exciting storyline in the Chicago Cubs camp.

With Hairston In The Fold, Cubs Appear Quite Close To .500

2013-01-24T12:20:00.000-06:00

My latest projection for the 2013 Chicago Cubs has them once again near the 79-win mark. Even after replacing my production guesses with ZiPS projections, the team appears to still have a decent chance of even making the playoffs, if — like — everything breaks the right way:

But as it stands now, the Cubs appear to be around 77 to 79 wins (depending how we treat that pesky league wOBA issue). That certainly puts them in the crazy luck range. Sky’s calculation gives them a 3% chance of reaching 91 wins, which has historically been a playoff spot. Can the Cubs do it? I’m just saying there’s a chance.

You never know, right?

Jackson, Villanueva Push Cubs Closer To 80 Wins

2012-12-21T08:30:00.000-06:00

So, big news on Thursday: The Chicago Cubs added a pair of starting pitchers, Carlos Villanueva and Edwin Jackson. Like many around the sabersphere, I applaud these acquisitions. I think Dave Cameron's writeup on FanGraphs captures the heft the wisdom:

But we should note that Edwin Jackson makes them better, and this price for Edwin Jackson is still completely reasonable based on his established performance level. That the Cubs aren’t yet obvious contenders shouldn’t cause us to tell them to stop trying to improve. By bringing in Jackson and Carlos Villanueva today, while already adding Scott Baker and Scott Feldman, the Cubs have now acquired four interesting starting pitchers this winter. They’ve rebuilt their entire rotation, essentially, and have set themselves up to be able to trade Matt Garza...

The only key item Cameron (full disclosure: my boss) leaves out of his analysis is the 2014 free agent pitcher market, which is bare in comparison to how the 2013 shook out.

So where does this put the Cubs at in 2013, though? According to my, shall we say, napkin predictions, they are approaching 79 wins.

This set of predicted outputs and innings -- based largely on Bill James projections, my own estimations, and average outputs from the last three seasons -- suggest the Cubs have a 79-win talent roster.

That is barring a breakout from Anthony Rizzo, Brett Jackson, Ian Stewart, Welington Castillo, or Starlin Castro. That is also barring a continued maturation of Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, and Nate Schierholtz.

I think the only truly generous prediction here is my hero, former Hanshin Tigers closer Kyuji Fujikawa, who I expect to be nails in his rookie campaign. There's a good chance I end up looking dump for predicting a 3.20 ERA for him, but predicting reliever ERAs makes most people look dumb, so whutevz.

As a 79 true-talent team, the Cubs are -- as Cameron says -- in the 70- to 90-win range, a crucial window where some good luck (both on field and/or in player development) can push them over the edge. More than that, these two pitchers put the club in even better position in 2014, when names like Javier Baez and Jorge Soler could be quite relevant and quite exciting.

Good signings. Good timing. An exciting new era in Cubs offseasons. :)

Cubs 2013 Projection: Another Sub-.500 Season On The Horizon

2012-12-12T09:00:00.000-06:00

For fun, I threw together a napkin projection for the 2013 Cubs. I'm probably wrong here and there about the playing time -- for instance, I don't think Luis Valbuena will be a super sub, even though that's the bench MLB Depth Charts suggests -- but as a whole, I think the results are in the ballpark.

Which is a bit of bummer, because I'm forecasting 77 wins:

This projections system comes courtesy of Sky Kalkman and Beyond the Box Score. Last year, I used it to quite accurately predict the Marlins needed a several lucky breaks just to be .500 (naturally, those breaks broke the other way and they only won 69 games).

What kinds of breaks do the Cubs need to be a winning team? Anthony Rizzo making a bigger offensive leap than I'm predicting. Alfonso Soriano having another great season. Scott Baker pitching 30 games; Scott Feldman repeating his strong peripherals; Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija continuing their breakouts (Garza had a huge letdown year in 2012).

And, obviously, everyone stays healthy. Maybe Ian Stewart goes nuts and starts hitting homers like mad?

Obviously, the Cubs still have time to execute a few roster-rearranging trades. Not the least of which includes the possible trades of Soriano and Marmol, and both should net prospects. Carlos Marmol could even bring an MLB-ready prospect back, though likely one with a pretty low ceiling.

But that is the beauty of the MLB. The Cubs may be a 77 or 78 win team according to true talent (or projected talent), but true talent levels change, players break out, seasons go crazy, and anything can happen. And who knows, maybe we won't have to be waiting for next year's next year?

In 2008, the belief around the sabermetric blogosphere was that the Tampa Bay Rays were on the cusp of greatness, but still another year away. But Evan Longoria turned out to be great immediately; James Shields improved upon his strong sophomore season; and Matt Garza exceed expectations.

The Cubs, it is obvious now more than ever with Rizzo, Castro, and a cadre of near-MLB prospects, have stepped even closer to that crest, that precious turnaround season.

But don't expect it to be in 2013.

Hitter BABIP, Explained

2012-12-03T14:01:00.002-06:00

This morning, around 12:30 a.m. Chicago time, I finished the final luck video in the Saber Primer Series.

I'm not quite decided what I want to make a video for next, but I'm leaning towards wRC+. I have been toying with a wOBA video for over a year, but I can't get the musical element just right, so I may keep it tabled. Also, I use wRC+ way more than wOBA these days.

Cubs Sign Dioner Navarro; Nary A Cause For Celebration

2012-11-15T15:49:00.000-06:00

News broke this afternoon that the Chicago Cubs had signed catcher Dioner Navarro. My buddies at Cubs Den said:

...Navarro would be the veteran the Cubs have been looking to back up Welington Castillo.

Navarro is an excellent defensive catcher with a good arm and solid contact skills at the plate.

And our friends at World Series Dreaming said:

Based on what we know of Navarro he's probably as good as or better than Clevenger would be anyway. Most likely inexpensive. Details to come but wouldn't be surprised if it was a minor league/spring training invite type of thing.

But as a fan of the Tampa Bay Rays since Dioner Navarro's MLB debut, I can say with conviction that Navarro is neither a good hitter nor a good defender -- and if the reports of a $1.75 million MLB deal are true, then the Cubs unfortunately overpaid for him.

Navarro, 29-years-old next season, has a career slash of .245/.306/.357 with a 76 wRC+ through 2239 PA. Since 2004, when Navarro debuted, catchers have averaged about 88 to 93 wRC+ in a given season. So Navarro is a below average hitter.

The reason he was ever considered a prospect -- a top prospect in Baseball Prospectus' evaluations -- was that he had a killer on-base percentage in the minors. But, we have since realized that a hefty OBP in the minors can be a product of passivity just as much as patience. For Navarro, he was passive and light-swinging.

Defensively, he is a mess too.

I watched a good majority, if not most, of the games he played with the Rays. The television crew would spend whole innings critiquing his lackadaisical pitch blocking, his uninspiring pitch framing, and his ever-mediocre arm.

In 2011, in just 1768 PA at catcher (less than half a full season), Navarro cost teams 4.3 defensively, according to Matt Klaassen's defensive ratings, and according to data compiled by Max Marchi, his pitch framing cost another half run per full season.

I'm pretty sure people think he is a good defender simply because he cannot hit. Go figure.

Navarro had good numbers in Triple-A in 2012 and then spent 24 games in the MLB as a reward. But putting up good minor league numbers were never a problem for Navarro. Moreover, Klaassen's 2012 defensive numbers suggest his -4.3 defensive runs are about on par with Steve Clevenger, who likely has a better offensive upside, despite his 44 wRC+ season in 2012.

Navarro is a nice guy. A good guy, even. Every special I saw on him filled me with compassion. But the Cubs either needed to pay Navarro minor league rates, or find someone else.

All The Scott Baker Analysis You'll Ever Need

2012-11-15T10:18:00.000-06:00

Dave Cameron is on it:

But, just like with Paul Maholm last winter, this is exactly the kind of guy that the Cubs should be filling out their rotation with. Decent, young-ish starter with upside and no long term commitment who can provide solid results and potentially serve as a nice trade chip at the deadline. Or, if things go really well, they get a leg up on re-signing him before he hits the market again next winter.

For a rebuilding team, this is how Major League payroll should be used. Use available jobs and cash to sign guys who can offer some upside without locking yourself into any long term risk, and position the roster to offer the fans a decent product without giving up any of the long term assets that the team is building around. The cost isn’t so low that it would have made sense for every team to do this deal, but for a club like the Cubs, this is exactly the kind of move that makes sense.

Scott Baker will wow nary a scout or fan in 2013. That is almost a certainty. But he will be a good gamble, even if he Chris Volstad's his way out the door.

Will 42 Be The Best Baseball Movie Ever?

2012-11-09T09:00:00.001-06:00

Hellifiknow how good this movie will be, but I do know Will and I are quite eager to see this film -- not just because it has Harrison Ford and baseball and Jackie Robinson -- but also because it has one of the forefathers of sabermetrics, Mr. Branch Rickey, who used OBP about 60 years before it was cool, who invented the minor league system, and who also happened to be the GM who broke (technically re-broke) the color barrier by signing the Mr. Robinson.

If 42 does not look at least promising so far, I am not sure what to say. Brian Helgeland wrote and directed the piece, and though he certainly has a few stinkers on his resume, an L.A. Confidential credit rings well, so does having executive producers from Cabin in the Woods and The Hangover franchise.

Here's hoping this one hits a -- wait for it -- home run. Or at least steals of home.

The Bears On The Cusp Of Greatness

2012-11-06T09:02:00.000-06:00

So the Chicago Bears won, like, big on Sunday. And so it is very much time to start thinking about the bigger aspirations for this team. Playoff-type aspirations.

Which means comparing the Bears to the the other top teams around the league. One of the easiest ways to take an advanced look at the Bears versus other elite teams is considering the EPA (expected points added) and WPA (winning probability added) offered on the NFL Advanced Stats visualization page.

Here's the executive summary:

The advanced stats agree with the talking heads: The Bears have a great defense, hampered by a poor offense. It's not that Jay Cutler is making terrible decisions, or that Brandon Marshall isn't a legit receiver, or that Matt Forte isn't one of the league's better all-around backs. It falls all directly on the o-line's inability to pass block.

The Bears offensive line is not actually a bad run-blocking unit (ranked No. 13 entering Week 9, according to Football Outsiders), but they are horrid at stopping a pass rush (No. 31, says FO). Considering the league is moving towards an even more pass-heavy system (what with additional protections offered to wide receivers and quarterbacks every year, this makes sense), the Bears really need to prioritize pass defense above run blocking.

They have the skill players for a successful passing system -- Marshall and Earl Bennett have great hands and after-the-catch skills, Devin Hester could become a screening demon, Forte does everything, and Cutler has the arm of a demigod. The missing component is pass blocking, but unfortunately, that is something they may not be able to correct until 2013.

Jay Cutler Is The Problem

2012-09-27T14:02:00.002-05:00

Here is a great piece from Grantland's Bill Barnwell concerning Jay Cutler:

Compare Cutler to Brett Favre, for example, and it tells us a lot about why we get down on Cutler. Like Cutler, Favre was prone to awful games in which he'd toss up a bunch of interceptions, get down on his teammates, and generally look like a disaster. Just like with Cutler, we'd project our images of how Favre looked and acted onto our opinions of how he played. Because Favre was emotional and fiery, we saw him as a team leader. Cutler's aloof stoicism and smugness have become the calling card for his critics, despite the fact that his teammates love him.

Has there ever been a quarterback surrounded by as much Narrative Ninja as Jay Cutler? I cannot think of one. I cannot think of any player outside of maybe Barry Bonds whose every expression was dissected like Shakespeare sonnet.

He's different. He does not a Brett Favre or Peyton Manning personality -- nor their ability -- but he's a dang good quarterback and the best thing going going for the Bears offense right now.

If Cutler had a ring or two, whether he deserved it or not (a la Brad Johnson), his detractors would likely have a lot less to say.

Chest bump to Manu Mishra for passing this along.

Alexei Ramirez 2012: A Terrible, But Useful Year

2012-08-30T12:48:00.001-05:00

James Fegan of the White Sox Observer had an insightful article on Alexei Ramirez today, pointing out something I would not have guessed in a bajillion eon. That is, Alexei Ramirez is killing it with runners in scoring position this season:

In 120 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Alexei Ramirez is hitting .355/.381/.476, for 46 RBI.

.355/.381/.476 !!!

That's the breakout season we dreamed of, and then a fair bit more. But, this doesn't validate RBI [as a statistic] either. We have no reason to believe Alexei Ramirez is especially capable of turning it on during run-scoring situations, certainly not to this absurd degree.

Fegan is quite right -- doubly right, in fact! -- to predict this production will not continue.

But at the same time, the Sox are very fortunate to have it & and Ramirez could regress to his career norms (which are rather good for a shortstop, especially of his defensive talent), which could provide a boost to a post-season hunting / rebuilding White Sox team.

Chicago Bears Uniforms Ranked No. 2 By Uni Watch

2012-08-28T08:00:00.000-05:00

Look, I think these uniform rankings are a no-win situation. In the world of art -- and sports art -- the only surety is disagreement and subjectivity. I personally think it's nuts the Yankees rank No. 9 with a black and white yawner, but the Rays -- who sport a similar, pinstripe-less blue and white alternative -- get ranked No. 68.

Nonetheless, the Chicago Bears and their strait impressive blue and orange get reasonable due, ranking No. 2 out of 122 teams:

True, the helmet design is starting to look a tad dated. But the striped sleeves, striped socks (now a rarity in the NFL, alas), unique number font, and even the perma-memorial to Papa Bear all score major points, and the Bears may be the only team in the league who look as sharp on the road as they do at home. The cream of the NFL crop.

I actually think the Bears look much better at home than away, and the Colts -- who rank pretty low themselves -- look better on the road than any pro sports team.

Astros Assault On Traditional Fielding Continues

2012-08-27T08:40:00.001-05:00

As before, here is this:

To listen to while watching these:

Look friends, I fully believe the Houston Astros are going to be a straight dynasty in the AL West at some point in the next 10 years -- I really like their leadership group, and the trades they have made over the last 10 months have already set them apart as an organization.

But this current iteration of folly is nearly bad enough to get the MLB to cancel the remainder of their games. Which would be a tragic loss, quite obviously, for the GIF-making community.

(By the way, that is 37-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey legging out the infield explosion RBI error there.)

Don't Like Starlin Castro's Offense Or Contract? Just Wait

2012-08-21T07:00:00.000-05:00

So the Cubs signed SS Starlin Castro to a whole mess of extension. Had Jim Hendry not promoted Castro from Double-A — in an apparent effort to extend his own tenure with the Cubs — maybe Castro would still be earning the MLB minimum. But alas, he has been extended.

And though he led the league in hits last season, many of those were for singles. And this year, he has a not-impressive 90 wRC+ (though the defense has improved considerably) and the concerns are mounting as his discipline numbers continue to move away from the Cubs Way and toward the Corey Patterson Way.

Fear not, though, as Dave Cameron (full disclosure: my boss) has a list of brow-wrinkling (in a good way) comparables:

The list of shortstops who have posted better offensive numbers than Castro in 1,000+ plate appearances through age 22 is very, very short. In the last 60 years, in fact, the list is only four players long – Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, Jim Fregosi, and Wil Cordero. Shortstops who got to the Majors early and hit worse than Castro has to date? Gary Sheffield, Alan Trammell, Robin Yount, and Jose Reyes all fall in that category. These are the kinds of history lessons that make you want to lock up Castro now, before he takes a big step forward offensively and starts seeing free agency looming in the near future.

Even if Castro is just the second-worst guy on that list — and he's not — then the Cubs have themselves a quality infielder.

The Houston Astros "Defense"

2012-08-08T15:32:00.000-05:00

Play this:

While watching this on mute:

Your browser does not support iframes.

No matter what, at least we're not Astros fans this season.

Hat tip NotGraphs.

Jeff Samardzija On FanGraphs Audio

2012-08-03T11:24:00.000-05:00

David Laurila gets the single best interviews in all of sports right now, and he recently took a trek to Wrigley Field, where he sat down with Jeff Samardzija and talked about his season stats, his pitches and velocity, and Ryan Dempster.

It's a great listen:

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The Aftermath Of Bloody Monday

2012-07-31T10:12:00.000-05:00

This is the last time I get to use this picture, I guess.

So Reed Johnson, Paul Maholm, and Geovany Soto are gone. I am a big fan of all three players -- though Soto was probably my favorite, Maholm second, which is the opposite order for most Chicago Cubs fans. Still, they needed to be traded given their contract status and the Cubs' overwhelming pitching needs.

I had the pleasure of reviewing this trade for FanGraphs. Here's the juicy bits:

The Braves trade feels a bit like a fleecing for the Cubs; the Rangers trade is at best a wash.

Concerning the Maholm/Johnson trade:

So, in many ways, this trade cost the Cubs nothing. Johnson and Maholm were brought in purely on speculative purposes — in speculation of a potential run at the Wild Card and, more importantly, in speculation of a possible trade deadline deal. And considering what they received in exchange, that speculation appears to have paid dividends.

...

For all the sensation that Anthony Rizzo has become on the north side, [Arodys Vizcaino] has the potential to be the same on the pitching side.

And concerning the somewhat disappointing Soto trade:

All told, though, the Cubs traded from a strength — their catching situation, which had three decent options — to build on their weakness and achieve their stated goal. It is just a little surprising that Brigham was all they got in return, but who knows? In 10 years, this may be the Infamous Brigham Trade, and my descendants will come back to this spot and put a placard on where I stood to say, “That’s it?” And Brigham’s descendants will write movie scripts and include mentions of how nobody thought a young man from central Florida could become THE Jacob Brigham.

Good on Theo and Hoyer for finding trade partners, but — man! — it feels like we just traded for Casey Coleman 2.0.

Chicago Bulls And The Perfect Storm

2012-07-08T16:07:00.000-05:00

Seeing Derrick Rose go down with a minute left in Game 1 against the 76ers, not only did my heart sink with sadness but I started to think of the Bulls window of opportunity. Having your franchise player, native son clinch his knee in pain is not a good sight and I started to question the Bulls ability to win a championship within the next three years.

The Bulls seem to be heading into a perfect storm: Injured franchise player (Rose), bad contract (Boozer), stagnant offense, and financial concerns.

The Art of War, NBA Style
Houston made a $24m/3yr offer to Omer Asik. That offer, as Robert Mays of Grantland points out, handcuffs the Bulls financially:

For Houston, Asik’s cap hit each year would be the total money evenly split over three seasons. For the Bulls, it would mean having to pay that $14 million in the final year, a figure that would put them way over the luxury tax threshold right when the tax penalties are slated to become even more severe for repeat payers. That difference in $6 million makes matching the Rockets’ offer go from irresponsible to nearly impossible.

The $14m the Bulls would have to pay in year three is quite a lot of money -- especially for a backup center. This strategic move the Rockets made would make Sun Tzu proud.

Financial Handcuffs
Here's a quick look at how much the Bulls owe going into next season:

Rose | $15m
Boozer | $15m
Noah | $11.3m
Deng | $13.3m
Hamilton | $5m
Gibson | $2m
Butler | $1m

Total: $62.6m

That's seven players under contract next season. Let's assume that the salary cap is set at an even $62.6m next season. This means that the Bulls still need to fill 5 spots and they're already breaking even with the salary cap.

The luxury tax states that a team over the salary cap will have to pay a dollar surcharge (tax) for each dollar over said cap. So the Bulls, as of now, would owe $0 dollars in a luxury tax.

If the Bulls sign Asik, add $5m over the cap (now $5m in luxury tax). Oh, and don't forget, you'll need to resign Taj Gibson at some point as well as 4 other roster spots. Without some type of trade of a big money contract, paying a luxury tax seems inevitable.

As passporthoops points out there were some teams who were waaaaaaaay over the salary cap last season: Lakers ($30m over), Heat ($20m over), and Knicks ($8m over) but going over the cap and paying a penalty depends on how loss averse an owner is.

A Lesson In Losing Money

“The first rule of investing is don't lose money; the second rule is don't forget Rule No. 1.” - Warren Buffet

I can imagine Jerry Reinsdorf sitting in his plush, leather chair deciding where to throw money away: paying the luxury tax or amnesty Carlos Boozer. If the Bulls retain Asik, the Bulls will have to pay a luxury tax of $5m next season and somewhere in that area for 2013 because of a Gibson deal. But wait -- we still need to fill four more spots on the roster!!! If the Bulls do sign Asik, I expect the luxury tax to increase to a good $8m next season. Whether it's the luxury tax or amnesty Boozer, Jerry Reinsdorf is losing money. And Jerry doesn't like to lose money... he's in the business of getting a return. And although the Bulls have been in the top 5 in the league for profits, I highly doubt Jerry is just going to sit there and lose money.

The way I see it, there's two ways out of this:

Amnesty Boozer in 2013: although Boozer's salary doesn't count against the Bulls salary cap, it does HOWEVER count against Reinsdorf's pocket. Reinsdorf will still have to pay that salary -- the problem of him losing money isn't solved. Boozer had a win share of 7.6 last season and played in all 66 games. We'll need every bit of those 7.6 wins next season while Rose and Deng are on the mend.
Trade one of the core players: Deng, Noah or Boozer. This is why there was trade talks of Deng, he's versatile but only offered a 5.8 win share last season (he played 54 games). The Bulls brass were approaching the Deng situation correctly: trade him now while he still has some value. Noah and Deng are the only tradeable assets the Bulls have -- any investigations of trading either should happen.

Leaning On The Future
The help the Bulls receive can be in the development of their younger players like Jimmy Butler and Marquis Teague.

The draft pick of Marquis Teague was a gift in the Bulls lap. He's a player that can break down defenses off the dribble. Whether he starts or not in Rose's absence, I'm less concerned with, as we'll need this ability from someone next season. If Teague picks up the offense, I like having that insurance policy behind Rose and occasionally having Teague run the point and Rose the two-spot. Yes, it will be a small backcourt, but I like having two guards that can break you down with speed, athleticism and making the play on the floor at the same time.

We'll also be leaning on Jimmy Butler who the Bulls are high on and who comes cheaper than Ronnie Brewer. I think Jimmy can contribute more, offensively, than Brewer.

But make no mistake about it, Bulls fans -- the next three or four years are predicated on the progression of Teague and Butler. If they struggle to find a rhythm offensively, it could set the organization back a season or two. This is not a good thing if Miami keeps retooling.

Reversing The Window
The Bulls can reverse the window by thinking strategically on how much Reisndorf is willing to lose, losing $15m on Boozer's contract seems out of the question. But paying $7-10m in luxury tax the next couple of seasons doesn't seem reasonable either. Keep in mind, the Bulls also need a potent two-guard to even compete for a title... and those don't come cheap.

Cubs 2nd In Bidding For Darvish, 1st In Non-Crazy Bidding

2012-07-04T11:56:00.001-05:00

Remember when the Rangers snuck into the U.S. Mint and stole the necessaries to print their own currency, and then used all of the currency they printed to purchase merely the rights to negotiate with SP Yu Darvish?

Yeah, well, before that happened, I had hoped the Chicago Cubs would try to get into the bidding — namely because the team was woefully lacking starting pitching depth and Darvish is young and elite.

So it turns out, according to Buster Olney's sources, the Cubs had the best not-insane bid:

3. Source: Remember how the Jays were expected to be such big players in the Yu Darvish bidding? Well, one official said that Toronto actually finished third in the bidding, behind the Rangers and Cubs, and that no bid was within $35 million of what Texas tendered.

Man, what a bummer that he ended up in Texas. But I'm still glad the Cubs didn't shell out the $35,000,001 necessary to outbid the Rangers.

Everything's bigger in Texas, I guess.

Lebron James: Not The GOAT... Yet?

2012-06-22T09:18:00.000-05:00

I'm nervous.

I'm nervous because I think Lebron James has figured it out and has taken that evolutionary step in his game. If he continues this play, he has the potential to usurp Michael Jordan as Greatest Of All Time (GOAT).

So, I performed a sanity check: comparing Lebron's player efficiency rating (PER) and his win shares to Jordan's. I gathered data from their first nine (9) seasons, respectively (omitting Jordan's second year because he only played 18 games) as well as their first seven (7) years in the playoffs. I figured that I would find that A) Jordan's dominance would shine through (it does) OR B) that Lebron's greatness is emerging (it is):

Lebron v. MJ (PER)

Lebron v. MJ (PER, Playoffs)

Lebron v. MJ (Win Shares, Regular Season)

Lebron v. MJ (Win Shares, Playoffs)

I'm not saying that Lebron is GOAT right now BUT he's getting closer. I think it's a given that he will go down as a Top 5 player in the company of Wilt, Jordan, Bird, and Magic.

But taking a closer look at the accolades, he has an uphill battle to go down as the GOAT. Many of my friends think Lebron needs to surpass Jordan in every category. Some think he needs to surpass Jordan in championships. Assuming that Lebron will play for another 8 years, I think he will either match or pass Jordan in a couple of these categories (MVPs, All-Star Selections, All-Star MVP, All-NBA First Team, Gold Medals):

Assuming Lebron and Team USA win the Gold, Lebron would have accomplished the following in one year:

NBA MVP
PER Leader
Win Shares Leader
All-NBA First Team
All-Star MVP
NBA All Defensive First Team
Championship
NBA Finals MVP
Gold Medal (pending)

This is an amazing feet. The last player to do this?

Michael Jordan in 1992.

Hat tip to Lebron, he had an amazing year. And maybe he's closer to Michael Jordan than this Bulls fan would like to admit.

Drinking The White Sox Kool Aid

2012-05-30T10:06:00.000-05:00

It's hot.

As I was walking from the North Face store, beads of sweat were dripping from my face. I thought to myself: "Self, I could go for some Kool-Aid right about now." Typically, kool-aid is the summer drink for kids -- and some adults -- during those blistering summer days. I would come home, mix a pitcher of the cherry goodness with about three extra cups of sugar. It was delicious.

But who knew that the White Sox would bring heat of their own this summer and make baseball relevant in Chicago? The Southsiders have been on a tear as of late and are producing some interesting subplots for this season:

Will Paul Konerko Hit .400?
I'm much more bearish on this narrative than most of my White Sox friends. Paul Konerko hitting .400 for the season will undoubtably be a great story. But it will mean less if the Sox don't make the playoffs. I expect Paulie to come back down to earth but what I'm keeping my eye on is his WAR -- which is currently at 2.8 (he had a total WAR of 3.1 last season) -- his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), and his Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).

The average BABIP for hitters is around .290-.300. Paulie's career BABIP (prior to this season) is .290 this is important to know because if a player's BABIP is extreme (very high, low) a player will regress back to the average. Konerko's current BABIP is .430. (wowza.)

Paulie's wOBA has been other-worldly: an excellent wOBA is .400, he is at... .473.

This why I'm bearish on Konerko. Regression will eventually catch up with him. When? I don't know. Updated ZiPS projections have Paulie with a WAR of 5.7, BABIP of .354 and a wOBA of .418 -- all great numbers. If Paulie does finish with these numbers, it will be fun to watch and bring more hope to the Southside.

Hello There, Adam Dunn
I was quite bullish on Adam Dunn last season. I mistakenly predicted he would have 50 (yes, 50) home runs at mobile phone park last season. I was egregiously incorrect.

But Dunn has bounced back from what seemed to be just an unfortunate outlier on a very good career. He has experienced an increase in both his fly ball and line drive percentage and a decrease in his ground ball percentage -- perfect ingredients for a new kool-aid flavor: BABIP Blueberry Blast (copyright pending). His current BABIP (.313) is higher than his career BABIP of .288.

Will Dunn regress? Probably. But it's good to see the Adam Dunn we hoped we would get on the Southside.

NOTE - Bill Petti at Fangraphs wrote an excellent piece explaining Dunn's resurgence and offers a cautionary tale about his performance against lefties. It's a recommended read.

Who's this De Aza Guy?
Alejandro De Aza is quietly becoming my third favorite White Sox player (behind my boy Alexei Ramirez (who is having not so good of a season) and Paul Konerko. Mainly because I like the two aspects of his game that are most commonly overlooked: defense and speed.

To be a good leadoff guy, one must A) see pitches B) get on base and C) run well

And De Aza does those three things decently.

His current pitch count per at bat is around 5 pitches. I like this.
De Aza currently has 9 stolen bases for the season with an updated ZiPS projection of 25... I think this will be around 30.
His OBP is .361 and I'm hoping he can get this to around .380.

Will the White Sox cool off? Eventually. But the key for the White Sox will be to mitigate this regression. If Konerko, Dunn, De Aza, and AJ cool off simultaneously (which I don't see happening), then the White Sox may finish slightly above average, but fall short of winning the division to make the playoffs.

But considering the Detroit Tigers were everyone's darling to win the AL Central, the White Sox came into this season with a new manager and lower expectations. Perhaps Kenny Williams and Robin Ventura already dipped into the punch bowl and are laughing together as the White Sox compete to win the division.

So pour me a glass of this White Sox kool-aid... extra sugar, please.

Are Epstein And Hoyer Above Reproach?

2012-05-26T09:52:00.000-05:00

The alternate title of this post is: Two Smart Guys Argue With One Other Guy:

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune strikes me as somewhat of a troll. As I noted on the Cubs Den article that brought this video to my attention, the Cubs front office is not above reproach, but if you are going to criticize them, DON'T DO SO LIKE AN IGNORANT FAN WHO KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT THE SPORT AND BUSINESS OF BASEBALL, SULLY.

Here is comment, reproduced in full:

Only Sullivan, who attacked Zambrano like a racist, who lambasted the man for leaving during the season to adopt a needy, South American child, would say, "We trade Zambrano too hastily."

Each one of the organization's moves has been easily defended -- and even the moves that for the Red Sox have since become problems (Lackey, Crawford, etc.) were defendable at the time (which means they are still defendable because you evaluate trades when they happen, not fifteen months later when, say, Chris Volstad struggles to start the season).

Sullivan is and likely shall remain a Published Troll. Such has become the fare of major media outlets of the Old World Press as they scramble to retain the dying business model.

Thanks, Tom, for bringing a little logic to the matter. And I agree that Epstein/Hoyer should not be overly praised or undoubted. There are sound counterarguments to the contract they gave Crawford.

Fans and writers need to post a sign over their television / game-watching device that says, "This is what rebuilding looks like." Not a soul in the front office said we were in contention for the NL Central in 2012. Being terrible right now is part of what will make the team great later.

(And no, "defendable" is not a word. At least it wasn't until I made it one.)

I do disagree with the Two Guys about Carlos Zambrano. I am not against the trade because I think the book is yet written on Chris Volstad. Also, I'm high on Michael Bowden who has a decent SIERA right now and could potentially edge towards the rotation someday. And Ian Stewart is among the top Cubs poised for a strong regression.

But I think we can say with certainty it is dumb to criticize the results of a trade just two months post facto. Extra dumb.