Cubs Stats

Beyond The Boxscore: The Cubs' Contract Window

2012-02-09T16:49:00.002-06:00

The Chicago Cubs, unlike teams in win-now mode, were waiting for contracts to end, not hoping to sign extensions or win it all before the All-Star leaves.

Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein worked some magic earlier this offseason, sending SP Carlos Zambrano tot he Miami Marlins, but they still have OF Alfonso Soriano — whose albatross contract does not end for another three more seasons — and OF Marlon Byrd, who is still really useful, but is blocking top prospect OF Brett Jackson.

Beyond the Boxscore's David Fung has a great visual to show the Cubs' current contract obligations:

Click to en-large-a-size.

Want to know more about the prospects at the bottom of the chart? Jonathon Mayo has you covered with his latest top 10 prospects, complete with videos.

So, You Wanna Host The Superbowl, Eh?

2012-02-07T20:44:00.000-06:00

I've always been interested in the effect of big sporting events have on local economies. One of the reasons is that I'm not entirely sold that it has the positive effect that is mostly spun to the public by local politicians and large sporting organizations (e.g.- NFL, IOC).

Recently, out favorite economic journalists at NPR's Planet Money spoke with a Sports Economist regarding the Super Bowl's effect on Indy's local economy:

[Victor Matheson] argues hosting the Super Bowl pushes out the economic activities that occur on normal, non-Super Bowl hosting weekends. No conventions are held. Museums are closed. Local residents do not come downtown simply because it's too crowded.

We luuuuuvvvzzz sports and we luuuuuuuuuuvvvzzzz economics -- when combined, they produce unstoppable powers. And, if you listen closely to said podcast, you'll hear about such awesome powers in terms such as "multiplier," "equity," "efficiency," and the implication of substitute goods. See? Unstoppable.

(I just had an econgasm, but I digress)

Good job, Planet Money crew!

P.S.-If any of our readers are from Atlanta and are familiar with the economic effects of the '96 Olympics, please do leave a comment!

Welcome To The South Side, Dan Johnson!

2012-02-01T12:40:00.001-06:00

Word broke this morning that the Chicago White Sox have signed 1B Dan Johnson to a minor league contract. Which is funny, because it was less than a year ago, White Sox fans were mercilessly booing me and Johnson after he cracked this homer, giving the Tampa Bay Rays their first win of the season and the Chicago White Sox one of their first losses.

I make little pretense about my team affiliations. They are as such:

1. Chicago Cubs
1. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Chicago White Sox

As such, the White Sox were SOL that night because I was elated. Johnson is one of my favorite all-time Rays — and not just because he cranks seriously clutch homers (do a video search on MLB's website for "Dan Johnson" — the majority of the results will be about game-tying home runs), but because I like his approach at the plate — wait, wait, wait... wait... HOME RUN SWING! (strikeout).

At the same time, though, Johnson is getting up there in age and is going to be stuck behind DH Adam Dunn (whom I anticipate will play MUCH better in the 2012 MLB Season) and 1B Paul Konerko (who's only moving if he gets traded, and I am not confident that will happen).

Nonetheless, I am excited to see Johnson alive and kicking. Here's to a great year, Pumpkin!

Bulls v. Miami — Part 1

2012-02-01T10:35:00.000-06:00

With Deng out, the Bulls find themselves with 18ppg missing from their lineup. And unfortunately, the only player on this Bulls team that can compensate missing Deng’s productivity is Derrick Rose. But there’s a problem with this: Rose ~~isn’t~~ cannot be a high-volume shooter — especially against Miami:
I know, I know, if it wasn’t for Derrick’s higher volume, the Bulls wouldn’t have been in the game — this is true. And if there’s one guy that I want on my team that can create and carry a team, it’s DRose. But someone needs to step up (liked what I saw from Noah) like, say, Rip Hamilton?

The Kind Of Photo You Know You Will See In Your Dreams Soon

2012-01-27T08:59:00.000-06:00

Thanks to Big League Stew for populating my nightmares for me.

Derrick Rose: Fun With Monopoly Money

2012-01-24T09:35:00.000-06:00

Taxes

Though taxes are a burden for us (shrinking) middle class workers (about 33-41%), 80% of our government's revenue comes from personal income taxes and payroll taxes. But what is the difference between these two? Assuming that Derrick's tax rate stays at 15% -- though Warren Buffet thinks this should be higher --

Salary + Shoe Deals = Swimming In Cash

Rose signed a 5-year extension with the Bulls at the beginning of this season that will pay him approximately $94 million. This is roughly $18.8M per season.

But as we all know, Derrick Rose has endorsements and if what Marc Stein is reporting to be true, Derrick Rose will have a "lifetime deal" from Adidas that will pay him $250M over the next 10 years.

Fun With Numbers

Let's keep things simple and just assume averages in these calculations. And for more simplicities sake, I'll just use his salary and lifetime deal numbers.

Taxes and Inflation

Rose's salary, adjusting for the 15% tax rate will equal around $16M per year. This brings us to about $80M for his salary from the Bulls. But we're missing something here and that something is inflation (we'll say it will be 2%) his $80M salary "shrinks" even further to about $72.5M. This brings his salary to about $14.5M per year.

We can do the same with the Adidas deal: That $250M "shrinks" to about $174M (when adjusting for taxes and inflation) and brings us to about $17.4M annually. And this is just one endorsement deal, he has several.

Putting The Money To Work

Making about $32M per year is, well, speechless -- I wish I was a little bit taller, I wish I was a baller. DRose and his generational wealth will eventually have to be invested. And for someone of his capital, hedge funds will probably offer the better strategies. But hedge funds don't always beat the market, and that's not the goal of investing, anyway; the goal is to not lose money. To me, if Rose owned an index fund (S&P 500) and commodities (oil, gold, silver, and water), he'd be hedged enough. He could also take some play money and invest in real estate (now's a great time to buy) and businesses. Heck, DRose could buy Englewood and call it "Rosewood" (patent pending).

Regardless of his investment approach, Rose's investment advisers will have to know the importance of valuation. And shoe deals. Gotta love the shoe deals.

Idaho Cubs: Dancing

2012-01-23T16:14:00.000-06:00

Submitted without comment:

...[W]ho knew the [Cubs] culture would slant so young and goofy? Here's footage of the Idaho Cubs being taught the dance moves to LMFAO's hit song "Party Rock Anthem" at a recent prospect camp practice. (Admittedly, the connection here is kind of a stretch: The Idaho Cubs are sponsored by the Boise Hawks, Chicago's short-season Single-A affiliate. But it doesn't mean we can't have fun with it in the middle of January.)
The video shows the Idaho Cubs receiving dance instruction the entire time — no, seriously, it actually does — but the youngsters really start to be sorry for party rocking around the 1:45 mark.
Anyway, remember that you saw it here first: Shuffling skills are the new inefficiency.

Maychance the major league club will finally t—teach me how to Dougie?

Yes, Bulls

2012-01-23T10:00:00.000-06:00

This Bulls post is long overdue. This is what happens when one starts a new job, generating new business models, and thinking about ways I could use my Ka-Bar on my next camping trip. Ayways, this season is going by quick and it seems like the Bulls are playing almost every night (hooray!) which is a blessing because I was getting maxed out on YouTube videos — The Wire clips (Omar listenin'!), Marketplace Whiteboards (more Junk Bonds, please!), and Brules Rules (foryourhealth!) can only do so much.

(yes, this is what I do in my free time — God, help me)

Luol Deng
In the first game against the Lakers, after a horrendous third quarter (where I believe the Bulls shot an abysmal 18%) I tweeted the following:

Although DRose made that unbelievable floater over Gasol, the player of the game was really Luol Deng:

We saw the benefits of a healthy Deng last season, producing a 9.9 Win Share — the second highest of his career (he had an 11.3WS in 06-07):

I wrote last season that as Luol Deng and the Bench Mob goes, as goes the Bulls. I think Deng (Dengbang, anyone?) is the most important player on this Bulls team. I won't change my stance on this. He can do a lot of things: defend, score, rebound, pass and I do not think that we have the depth at the 3 to compensate him going down for an extended period of time (though I yearn for Jimmy Butler). Let's hope he stays healthy the rest of the season.

Which brings me to my next point...

No DRose? We'll be aaaiiight... For a little while
With Derrick Rose being shelved for turf ~~tow~~ toe, C.J. Watson and John Lucas III have seen increased playing time. This got me thinking about the Bulls output at the point with DRose sitting on the bench. The results are, for the most part, encouraging:

The Basics - PPG, Assists Per Game, Turnovers Per Game

The Percentages - Turnover%, TrueShooting%, EffectiveFieldGoal%

Win Shares - Offensive, Defensive, TotalThis is a team that, despite Rose being hurt, continues to find ways to win. Most teams in the NBA would be envious of the Bulls depth. And this is exactly why a trade DOESN'T need to happen — because every night, a trade of sorts happens, and that is playing some of the guys on the bench who would be starters for other teams.

With Rose out, we'll survive and we'll find ways to win. And if I'm Coach Thibs, I rest Rose for as long (and often) as possible — this season is a season of attrition — the team with the most depth, less injuries, best coaching will win the NBA championship.

Boozer and Joakim
Last month I talked about the Narrative Ninja associated with Carlos Boozer and it's true; Boozer gets blamed for everything:

Boozer has a win share of 2.1 and is tied for second on the team with Luol Deng.

But Joakim? That's a different story. It seems like our center is getting off to a not so good start.

More Butler, Please
Yes, I know he's a rookie but, as a Marquette Alum, seeing Jimmy Butler on the bench is absolutely killing me!

My Pick
I have the Bulls meeting Oklahoma City in the Finals — Bulls in 6.

Man, it's good to have the Bulls back.

Chicago Cubs, Matt Garza Far Apart; Cubs, Rodrigo Lopez Much Closer

2012-01-19T16:41:00.001-06:00

In a weird some of duopoly of events, the Chicago Cubs have reached a major impasse with their ace RHP Matt Garza and meanwhile re-signed the minor league fodder that is RHP Rodrigo Lopez.

The Garza news is pretty disconcerting:

A gap that big ($4.5M) shows a major difference in expectations between Garza and the Cubs. Honestly, given that Garza earned about $6M in 2011, the midpoint seems like the only sensible number of the three out there. Oh well.

On Thursday afternoon, news broke that the Cubs had re-signed Rodrigo Lopez, who played a round of roulette in the Cubs' 2011 Rotation of Death, twirling to the tune of a 4.42 ERA, 5.36 FIP, and 4.62 SIERA.

In the past, Lopez's FIP has best predicted his ERA, so, y'know, that's not good. But at the same time, Lopez is coming in on a minor league contract and could potentially eat some low-leverage innings as a spot starter or long man. So, hey, why not?

Personally, I'd take my chances with someone younger like Kyle Davies or a minor leaguer Dirk Hayhurst, but whutevs. In the grand scheme, it's probably not a huge difference.

Stop SOPA, Stop PIPA

2012-01-18T09:46:00.001-06:00

A humor cartoon from the great TheOatmeal.com.

We like to follow the rules here at Cubs Stats, at least as much as we can, but as Americans we have that awesome ability and duty to set and change the rules.

Well, we wanted to black out Cubs Stats today in solidarity with sites like Wikipedia, Google, Wired.com, Reddit, icanhascheezburger, and — as seen above — The Oatmeal. Unfortunately, my HTML magic just made a sad little puff from my hands instead of the dramatic lightning bolts I had intended, so instead I'll just post about SOPA and PIPA today and refrain from writing about the Cubs or White Sox or Bulls and such.

Consider going to the Wikipedia page, typing in your Zip Code, and then promptly contacting your congressman. Never underestimate the power of annoying politicians and their interns.

Why are SOPA (the Stop Online Piracy Act) and PIPA (the Preventing Real Online Threats to Economic Creativity and Theft of Intellectual Property Act of 2011 or PROTECT IP Act — good lord!) so evil?

Well, for me, it is two reasons:

1) SOPA and PIPA border dangerously close to censorship. At Cubs Stats, we try to use only our own photos, photos with Creative Commons licenses, or photos in the public domain. So we are not at any real threat of being shut down — from my understanding. But the fact that so many other sites, such as my YouTube page which has used other's photos in the past, could get shut down without due process.

PIPA will also dramatically effect which foreign sites we can visit. Yes, like China and North Korea and Iran, the US government (no doubt at the behest of some landed gentry) have taken ir upon themselves to imitate the most closed and oppressive governments — y'know, to protect the people from the evil pirated stuff.

A little bit of history: I play guitar.

For a long time, I got my guitar tabs (basic written forms of guitar music) from an American guitar tab website — I'm ashamed to say I've forgotten its name now — but at some arbitrary point, guitar tab publishing companies (the people who printed the physical books of guitar tabs, y'know, those dozens of books I own but would have never purchased had I not learned how to play guitar first from online sources) realized they were losing money. So, they dressed their lobbyist in a nice suite, lined his pockets with Benjamins, and sent him teary-eyed to a congressman.

Before long, the site had to shut down. Why? Apparently the user-generated guitar tabs (as in: People listened to the songs, then transcribed them themselves) were deemed a breach of intellectual property rights. Bye-bye American guitar tab sites.

Enter: GuitarTabs.cc and GuitareTab.com.

Yes. Foreign sites. All in English, soaking up the spilled readership from the American sites. Naturally, enter the lobbyist again. And now here comes SOPA and PIPA.

Basically, this process of stifling American websites only to see foreign competitors appear has got the American businessmen pissing in their fifteen-hundred dollar suites, c'mon! (I just quoted Arrested Development. I hope we don't get shut down.)

2) SOPA and PIPA reflect the broken perspective of American businesses. Instead of inventing something new, many prominent American businesses have taken to buying weird copyrights and suing over technology they didn't invent, or they find similar products and try to shut them down instead of making their product better.

I'm a reclusive economist. Will's a consummate businessman. We like new, innovative business models. And what SOPA and PIPA represent is the backwardness of American businessmen and the lack of innovation that has stunted American growth since the 1990s.

Instead of finding a new business model, American companies — from the print media to the car makers — have become litigious and frightened. They turn to their congressmen instead of their visionaries.

Well that, frankly, is not intelligent. It's dumb. It's cowardly. It's the mark of sad little fools who have forgotten or never learned how capitalism is supposed to work.

Look: I like intellectual property rights. Without them, my words (which is my job) can easily be stolen and sold. That's a pretty large bummer (though, if I'm properly attribute, maybe I don't care).

Still, like the Oatmeal cartoon said, this is like trying to catch the lion that escaped from the zoo by taking a flame thrower to a basket of kittens.

And that's not just dumb, it's evil.

2012 Cubs Convention: Videos And Afterthoughts

2012-01-17T09:54:00.000-06:00

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I've said it before, and it remains true: The Chicago Cubs have one of the most handsome front offices in baseball history. Frankly, it's a bit eerie.

Anyway, I was out of town for the Cubs Convention, so some of this footage is the first I'm seeing of the what Theo and the gang had to say last weekend. And mostly, they're saying all the right stuff.

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I remember when Will and I went to the 2011 Cubs Convention. A sort of pall hung over the place. We enjoyed and greatly appreciated the Ron Santo memorial events and memorabilia (he had died about a month earlier), but the rest of the convention felt like quiet desperation as Jim Hendry assured us everything was okay. But everyone could tell his seat looked uncomfortably hot.

This year, no one is assuring us everything is okay. Svuem (in the first video) says the team is not as young as it appears (which is a good thing?) and that they are building, not re-building. I buy both suggestions, and I think the second is an excellent political move — because, let's face it, the Cubs need a few miracles in order to reach to the playoffs in 2012, but on the other hand, they still have a few legit stars on the roster including Starlin Castro and Matt Garza (for now).

All this to say: I wish I had gone this year.

Wrigley Field Renovations Are Good, So Shut Up

2012-01-16T16:32:00.001-06:00

Look, I understand Wrigley Field is a beautiful place. Most ballparks are on the outskirts of industrial parks or surrounded by asphalt parking lot deserts. Wrigley has a neighborhood charm and an old-timey feel. It also has pretty bricks and ivy. And urinal troughs. Oh, and those bricks, though pretty, are also an idiotic safety hazard in the name of aesthetics and tradition, but whutevz.

Anyway. The 2012 Cubs Convention came with the announcing of the Cubs' plans to give more than just a lipstick refresher to the ol' stadium. They plan to do this in right field:

That's right. A digital scoreboard / jumbotron thingy in right field.

I'll let my man McGinnis take it from here:

I have news for people. Wrigley Field is not a museum. It is a functioning major league ballpark whose job is to maximize revenues for the team so that it can have a strategic edge over the other teams that don't make as much money. That is the system as it stands, so those are the rules the team should play by. Voluntarily leaving revenue uncollected because a few fans want to remember what Wrigley looked like in years past is stupid.

Wrigley was originally built without an upperdeck, that was added in 1927. The permanent bleachers weren't added until 1937. Those additions were necessary to keeping Wrigley Field as the home of the Cubs. If they couldn't have done those additions, then the Cubs would have had to move. But now, all of a sudden, any time the Cubs want to simply keep up with the economics of the game, they have to fight fans for the right to make a change in their own ballpark. It took a threat from the Commissioner of Baseball that the Cubs would not host home playoff games if they didn't get lights to finally have have lights installed.

Emphasis mine.

Frankly: There is no reason to let the New Thing scare you.

Wrigley (you know, that stadium named after the gum magnate) is not magical. Our experiences there may be magical, but that's got a lot more to do with the humans on the grass, on the clay, and in the seats — and almost nothing to do with whether or not there is a Bud Zone.

Can The Chicago Cubs Trade Alfonso Soriano?

2012-01-16T09:49:00.000-06:00

Yes. Of course. Anybody can be traded. If the Chicago Cubs eat the entirety of Alfono Soriano's contract and then throw even more money on top of that, even the Japanese teams would be clamoring for his rights. Any one player is tradeable — but paying other teams to take players away does not make sense.

So the question is more: Who would want Alfonso Soriano if the Cubs demand a reasonably fair trade?

And that, frankly, is crazy difficult to answer.

My colleague at Fangraphs, Eric Seidman, took a look into Soriano's value this morning, and I'm sad to report he did not find any secret, over-looked gem — some secret stat that makes Soriano an asset to the Cubs.

The truth is Soriano is more fourth outfielder than starter now, which is a bummer because the Cubs are paying him top dollar. Still, Soriano has great value. Seidman puts it perfectly:

If Soriano was on the free agent market right now, a number of teams would seek his services. He can hit lefties and field well, and that is usually enough for a team to have interest in a one- or two-year deal at $2-3 million per season.

So, if we think of Soriano as a free agent, the 36-year-old looks like an undervalued asset, not an overpaid albatross. Smart teams — that is, teams who like to platoon outfielders and are familiar with advanced fielding statistics like UZR — will no doubt understand how Soriano's value could easily exceed that $2-3M mark. But, given Alfonso's age, it would need to be a team in contention as well.

The Tampa Bay Rays might be a good fit, but their roster already has a few Soriano types in OF Justin Ruggiano and former Cub OF Brandon Guyer. So, they would be dis-inclined to pay for a more pricey and older version of what they already have.

The Toronto Blue Jays look poised to start the young LF Eric Thames in left field, and given how poorly he performed against lefties in his limited 2011 PAs (67 wRC+ in 91 PAs), Soriano could offer a nice balance as the Jays ease Thames into more full-time appearances.

We would expect the Seattle Mariners would want a platoon partner for LF Mike Carp, but he has mashed lefties up to this point in his career (132 wRC+).

The San Diego Padres have RF Will Venable, who sports a disgusting 60 wRC+ against lefties. However, the Padres already have OF Chris Denorfia who can pummel lefties and play all three outfield positions — as far as we know, Soriano can only be effective in left field, though right would not be a huge stretch, I imagine.

One possible fit would be the Cleveland Indians. If they are ready to call LF Michael Brantley a lost cause against lefties, then Soriano could make a clear upgrade over their current RHB backup, OF Shelley Duncan. Duncan is a great 4th outfielder, but he's not really a killer against lefties.

The Chicago White Sox might be a good fit personnel-wise, but they are in a massive rebuilding mode right — one the likes of which I have neither seen nor expected — so they obviously would have little interest in giving a prospect in exchange for an aging part-time player.

The Boston Red Sox have LF Carl Crawford in left — and he's nothing great against lefties — but his contract and defense necessitate he remain a full-time starter until knee problems render him, well, Soriano'd.

The New York Yankees might actually have a place for a Soriano home coming. They currently have OF Brett Gardner in left with OF Chris Dickerson as his backup, both of whom struggle against LHP. Soriano cannot replicate Gardner's fielding by any stretch, but he could offer some hitting assistance as well as insurance in case CF Curtis Granderson becomes Curtis Granderson again, and loses his ability to hit dingers off lefties (a bet I would happily hedge if I were the Yankees).

Regardless of how it all shakes out, they are not really many (or any) teams clamoring for Soriano's services. He does come with the small chance of regaining his former glory, but in all likelihood, Soriano is nearing the end. Hopefully the Cubs can get one last asset out of him before he leaves.

Carlos Zambrano Traded To Miami Marlins

2012-01-05T07:30:00.000-06:00

Welp, Theo Epstein / Jed Hoyer have done it. They have answered the biggest question heading into the 2012 MLB Season — they have trade RHP Carlos Zambrano to the Miami Marlins for 25-year-old RHP Chris Volstad.

It is no coincidence, I brazenly assume, that I just wrote a piece about Zambrano in the Venezuelan Winter Leauges, mentioning how his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching statistic) and peripherals were ugly, to say the least.

The timing of this trade is good: Volstad is cheap, even though the Chicago Cubs have essentially bought out the remainder of Zambrano's contract, and Volstad is six years younger.

My colleague Chris Cwik is on the trade analysis:

All told, the Cubs and Marlins swapped fifth starters. Zambrano just hasn’t been all that good — or consistent –over the past couple of seasons. And he caused huge headaches for his coaching staff and the Cubs’ front office. Volstad might offer little upside, but he’s been nearly as good as Zambrano — minus the drama. At the very least, Epstein spends less money on Tylenol this season. At best, he also gets the better pitcher.

I love Zambrano, and I hope he does well in Miami. But there's no denying: This was the right trade and a good one for the Cubs.

Chicago Bears Fire Jerry Angelo

2012-01-03T10:53:00.000-06:00

The Chicago Bears have fired Jerry Angelo, their general manager since 2001.

Maybe I am a touch more sensitive then most, but I rather dislike how volatile the employment structure of the NFL is. For instance, if a man is good enough to earn an extension one year, then what can possibly change in his level of ability a few years later?

I guess maybe you can learn more about him, but still, his process for player evaluation and acquisition should be clear within the first few years.

When Tom Ricketts first took over the Chicago Cubs, I hoped for a sabermetric revolution (as we are witnessing now), but at the same time, I felt Jim Hendry could be successful (with a stronger, more robust quantitative analysis department) because he had shown an ability to produce occasionally successful teams in the past.

I think Ricketts handled the whole process expertly — giving Hendry time to prove himself before instituting an overhaul.

I realize this makes me wildly unpopular, but I will admit: Jerry Angelo was nowhere near the worst GM in the league.

Yesterday, the Indianapolis Colts fired their top executive Bill Polian and his son GM Chris Polian. The St. Louis Rams fired GM Billy Devaney too. For Bill Polian, a long-time GM, maybe we can say the game has passed him by. That seems like a crazy thing to say for a GM who just presided over one of the most successful decades in Colts history.

If a win-loss record tells us all we need to know about a GM, then it is easy to say Billy Devaney was a poor GM, Chris Polian was an outstanding GM (which is highly debatable, given that the Colts' success appeared tightly tied to Peyton Manning's success), and Jerry Angelo was an alright/average GM:

So, if Angelo is at least average, then why replace him? "Only to become elite," has to be the answer.

Look at the New England Patriots. Unlike the Colts, the Patriots have succeeded in times without their franchise quarterback, Tom Brady. Also, they have typically build (this year being an exception) strong-to-average defenses to compliment their elite and innovative offensive structures.

From what I understand, the Patriots have the most innovative and progressive front office in the NFL.

ASIDE: But at the same time, they kind of seem like villains to me — what with the cheating and whatnot. Not to accuse the New York Yankees organization of cheating, but they kind of remind me of the Patriots, doing whatever it takes to get ahead. I dunno, maybe that is just some narrative ninja getting to me?

If the Bears hope to upgrade, pulling someone from the Patriots organization would not be a bad idea. Or, heck, maybe Angelo was shown the door because Polian became available? It is hard to say what the thought process was.

I think we can say for certain the Bears — who have sold out all their home games since Ditka was the head coach — did not make the change because fans were clamoring for it.

Fans clamor. That's about all they do outside of purchase tickets and gear. And with the Bears seemingly incapable of leaving a single, ultra-expensive seat empty at Soldier Field, the only real incentive for changing the GM would be to upgrade, not a appease a mob of fickle, uninformed fans.

So here's to an upgrade. May it come not at the expense of Lovie Smith, whom I think is a wildly underrated head coach.

*dives for cover*

Reed Johnson: Average Is Cool Again

2011-12-22T10:55:00.000-06:00

My latest FanGraphs piece looks at Reed Johnson, whom I despised last off-season for stealing Fernando Perez's roster spot (Perez went on to lose his job with the Cubs entirely, so maybe Johnson isn't entirely to blame here).

Anyway, my most recent assessment of Johnson has him looking, hey, pretty average — which is alright in my book:

He’s not a stellar base runner (11 steal, 10 caught stealing, and 0.4 BsR in the last four season). He’s not an amazing fielder (0.3 UZR over his last four seasons). He’s not a great hitter (.330 wOBA and 98 wRC+ since 2008).

He’s just Johnson. Average.

But, since he has displayed no particular weaknesses since getting relegated to part-time duty (where he can focus on mashing lefties, which is his specialty), Johnson has become a relatively valuable asset. Which is nice, especially since he is pretty cheap these days.

Good News For The Astros Is Bad News For The Cubs

2011-12-20T08:00:00.000-06:00

It looks like the Houston Astros have in Jeff Luhnow a proper brilliant GM:

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111219&content_id=26202260&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

Jeff Luhnow, the new Astros GM, is a great, smart guy who is all about using all available resources to build and maintain a successful franchise. As well, he is very fan friendly, as you can see from this chat.

Astros fans should be very excited.

When asked in the chat about web sites he frequents, this blog was mentioned along with BP and THT, so we know that he has great taste in baseball blogs!

The Astros under Gerry Hunsicker were crazy good. Why they ever let that man go to Tampa Bay is beyond me.

Well, it looks like Houston may have their Hunsicker 2.0 now.

Ray Emery: The Blackhawks #1 Goalie Until Further Notice

2011-12-19T08:00:00.002-06:00

In December, Ray Emery has been in net for the Blackhawks for 8 games... Helping the Hawks gain points in 7 of them. But how good has Emery been in this surge? Let's take a look at GVT (Goals Versus Threshold):
Surprisingly, Emery's GVT is -1 -- he's allowed one more goal than the average goaltender. This does not mean he has played average during the recent Hawks surge. In fact, his GVT on November 26th was -6. This is a +5 GVT improvement. Emery's save percentage is on par with his career (90.8% ... current NHL save percentage is 91.2%) and his current 2.50 GAA (goals against average) is less than his career average (2.66) and on par with the league (2.58).

But what if Emery hovers around the average (0)? Do the Hawks have enough offensive firepower to survive average goaltending? Right now, that answer seems to be "yes." The Hawks have four players in the top-ten of GVT. But the struggles of Corey Crawford could be a concern if Emery slumps. Crawford has the talent. His save percentage last season was 91.7%, his GAA was 2.30, and his GVT was top-fifteen in the league. But right now, with the superb goaltending in the Western Conference, you go with the experience and play of Emery. He'll keep the Hawks in the game, giving them a chance to win...

... And that's all the Hawks need their goaltender to do.

Rip Hamilton Takes His Talents, And His Mask, To Chicago

2011-12-14T21:27:00.002-06:00

The Bulls finally addressed their issue of finding a two-guard by signing Richard "Rip" Hamilton (and his mask). Although this will improve the Bulls offense, I find the move a little perplexing. Rip will fit nicely with what the Bulls are trying to accomplish on offense, but his DRating (points allowed per 100 possessions) is absolutely atrocious (115):

I would expect 14ppg from Hamilton as well as an increase in his assists (playing alongside Rose, Boozer, and Deng is better than anything Detroit has) but I do not know how Thibs plans on improving Rip's defensive acumen at this point in his career -- he's never been known as a great defender. Maybe Thibs defensive scheme really is that good.

Overall, I like the move. This solidifies the two-guard for a couple of seasons with a veteran, offensive player while Jimmy Butler progresses (I have my Optimism Goggles engaged on Butler). I just hope Rip's defense doesn't become a liability on the other end of the floor.

The Extra Point: Apparently Rip's mask isn't just for protection. It serves as a Nasal Oxygen Provider, which is like an extra pair of lungs ... but on your face:

Carlos Zambrano: Venezuelan Winter League Stats

2011-12-14T11:45:00.000-06:00

Hey, so Carlos Zambrano is pitching in the Venezuela Winter Leagues, a place Quad-A guys and comeback hopers go to keep fresh and prepare to impress in Spring Training. Zambrano is, in truth, neither of those — Qaud-A or a comeback candidate.

Well, he's kind of, but not really a comeback candidate. Comeback guys are like Dmitri Young, who is out of baseball, without a contract, and hoping to catch on with some team. Zambrano is under contract. He will be with some team during the 2012 Spring Training unless he elects to retire.

Anyway, Big Z has tossed three games for the Caribes de Anzoategui and has thus far culled some impressive stats:

Pitcher GS IP ERA FIP
Zambrano 3 13.2 3.29 2.63

Note: I've calculated his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) myself, but the MLB does not have IBB data, so if there is an error there, it would only mean Z has pitched better than I have calculated.

So Zambrano's Winter League stats are good, close to great so far. Which is only right. He's facing vastly inferior competition. Also, according to MLB Trade Rumors, he's apparently working out like crazy:

"I'm preparing like when I was a rookie, climbing mountains, running on the beach, and exercising hard so that I can arrive at Spring Training in optimal shape," he said, as relayed by Joiner Martinez at Líder en Deportes. "I want to stay in Chicago for the two seasons I still have with the team. I'm not a coward who would take the back door out of the majors."

Tack onto that, the Cubs may very well be in legit contention for the second NL Wild Card in 2012. The latest Oliver projections have the Cubs within reach of an 85-win season. I have been saying for a while that the Cubs need at least two years to rebuild into a winning team, but honestly, a few prudent acquisitions and they may be in the playoffs in 2012.

And that, frankly, is stunning. Maybe they acquire Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder? That would be another huge bump and frankly not a bad long term move either, because both are relatively young (Darvish moreso than Fielder). A bit more pitching depth, a big year for Zambrano (think: 3.50 FIP; great, but not amazing) and suddenly the Cubs look legitimate.

Get ready Cubs fans. The Big Zanta Clause is coming back to town, and he may be bringing presents.

Narrative Ninja: Carlos Boozer

2011-12-09T11:50:00.001-06:00

What do the Bulls Need?
There's two camps when it comes to this topic: one side doesn't believe the Bulls need a two-guard but rather Carlos Boozer playing up to his career average numbers in the Playoffs. The other side of the argument is that the Bulls needed a two guard, like, yesterday.

In regards to Boozer, there was a decline but was it substantial enough to warrant scapegoat status?

I believe we suffer from Narrative Ninja when it comes to Boozer -- we remember more bad than good. It's true, he did not have the best playoff performance, but neither did Derrick Rose -- yes, I went there. Hey, we love scapegoats in Chicago so hellwithit... Boozer is our scapegoat.

Personally, I'll take a guy that can score 17 points, grab 11 boards, and have a true shooting percentage of 52% against the Heat any day:

In Game 1, vs. the Heat Boozer played decently (a tad below his average) and in Games 3 & 4, Booze actually played very well (the Bulls lost both of those games):

Our Narrative Ninjas remember Game 5 from Boozer and we shiver. Yes, it was bad. But the problem isn't that Carlos Boozer is a bad player as I have heard on these windy streets... nay. There's something underneath the surface that didn't improve last season. Nick Friedell points out:

People can talk about how the Bulls' biggest weakness is the need for a scoring two guard who can take some pressure off of Rose. While that is certainly the team's biggest issue heading into the new season, the other big one, which has gotten lost in the hoopla for another perimeter scorer, is the fact that two of the Bulls' best players didn't complement each other very well on the floor last season. If the Bulls want to take the next step in their progression next year, Thibodeau must find a way for Noah and Boozer to coexist on the floor together on both offense and defense. If they don't the Bulls still won't be able to win a title ... no matter who the two-guard is.

Couldn't agree more. The Bulls need to establish synergy between Boozer and Noah then add a complimentary piece at the two-guard. Until that happens, Boozer will continue to be the scapegoat for no apparent reason.

This is Chicago, after all.

Albert Pujols Signs With The Los Angeles Angels

2011-12-08T11:57:00.001-06:00

Albert Pujols signed with the L.A. Angels this morning.

Let's have some Nazi kids with Chinese subtitles sing my emotions:

Ron Santo Elected To Hall Of Fame, One Year Late

2011-12-05T11:19:00.001-06:00

Today, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced that former Chicago Cubs third baseman and radio commentator Ron Santo is a Hall of Famer. Santo died December 3, 2010 — a year and two days ago — from complication of the diabetes that made him play beneath his talents for 15 years, made him keep candy bars in his locker, made him end his career at the age of 34 (while most other Hall of Fame third baseman played into their 40s), and eventually made him begin life anew in a wheel chair.

I'm sick. Sick. That Santo could not have been elected during his life.

I don't care about the Hall of Fame. It's a stupid little club created by writers. It's full of cheaters and racists and New York Yankees who had whatever careers but just happened to be on the right team. Half it's members stood out only because segregation artificially kept the talent pool at a minimum; the other half benefited from cocaine, greenies, the clear, and HGH.

The only reason the Hall means anything to me is because it meant something to Ronnie. Santo spent his summers at my house, bumbling his way through a Cubs game, collapsing and moaning with each error and caught stealing, rising and flying with each Cubs homer and run.

Santo was part of Chicago; he was part of the family; he was what made the game good. A solid, hard-working man. A man who daily overcame unfair physical obstacles to play at an elite level. A company man who never gave up on his team.

Shame on the Hall of Fame voters. Shame on the Veteran's Committee. He's in there now. It was an inevitability; he was going to make it someday. Once the BBWAA is run by sabermetricians (a matter of time), Santo was going to be a stand-up triple, an easy run. He was in.

Shame on them for not giving Santo the pleasure of his one last hope.

Congratulations to Ronnie. Congrats to his family, who today probably feel somewhat stung like me. And congrats to the Golden Era Committee, who finally redressed the Hall's great error.

This heel-click goes out to you, Ronnie.

Cubs Sign David DeJesus, And Other Notes

2011-11-30T08:25:00.001-06:00

My wish is my command?

A New Right Fielder for Wrigley
News broke Tuesday morning that the Chicago Cubs have agreed to terms with right fielder David DeJesus.

I — and I imagine most saberists — rather like the move. DeJesus will earn $10M over the next two years with a club option for a third season in 2014. He's making half what the Cubs paid Carlos Pena, and given DeJesus's strong fielding and righty-mashing ways, he should easily be as productive or more-so than Carlos Pena, who earned (or, rather, will earn because of the contracts particulars) twice as much for just one season.

DeJesus will also be playing in the NL for the first time, a move that could very easily help his offensive production. The major drawback, of course, is that he'll be 32 in 2012, so he may start declining during his tenure with the Cubs, but his skillset (non-power, strong fielding) is the kind that typically ages well.

Hooray! I like the signing.

Ari Kaplan and Scouting Front Offices
Here's a rather good article from the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan wherein he sheds a little insight on Tom Rickett and his process of hiring Theo Epstein. He also spills the beans on what the Cubs lone stats guy, Ari Kaplan, was doing this past year:

After Jim Hendry's firing, Ricketts had statistical analysis manager Ari Kaplan and a consultant analyze all 30 teams on cost per victory, number of players developed, average value of their systems and other factors. He said he made about 20 calls to owners, GMs, former GMs and agents "to ask them what they would do in my situation."

And they said Get Theo Epstein. Go figure. Ari could've saved the time and asked me. :)

Double Maddux in Texas
Do you know who really needs help with their pitching staff? The Texas Rangers.

Yeah, they just keep churning out pitching superstars like the Tampa Bay Rays of brisket, but apparently they need more help because they just hired away Greg Maddux.

Thanks a lot, jerks.

Shoeless Joe, a Career Too Short
Yesterday I waxed historical and bemoaned the loss of perhaps 10 extra years of the great Joe Jackson.

I'm an unabashed Shoeless Joe fan, so remember that as you read the article, which does not share many kind words for ol' Pete Rose:

Frankly, I don’t care too much about Ol’ Rosey. Yeah, he leads the world in hits, but he certainly doesn’t lead the game in wOBA or wRC+ — in fact, depending on the plate appearances requirement, you might find him thereabouts of page 14 on that particular dispay (one sorted by wRC+, that is). To me, that screams empty batting average.

Sorry Rose fans, but I miss Jackson more than Head First Slide.

Chicago Cubs: Dream Team?

2011-11-29T08:00:00.000-06:00