Cubs f/x

Converging Marmol

2011-08-17T15:45:00.000-05:00

A picture is worth a 1000 words, right? This picture plots over 6300 pitches thrown by Carlos Marmol since 2007. Notice the drop in velocity followed by an increase in his slider velocity only (lower clusters).

While his fastball velocity has dropped, his slider has picked up speed and is back to as-fast-as-ever. One key for Marmol is having separation between his two pitches. Speed is just one aspect, movement is another.

PITCHf/x gives us both vertical spin deflection (or movement, when gravity is added back in as shown below) and lateral spin deflection (or movement). Guess what? Convergence.

Lateral:

Vertical:

This can't be good when combined with historically bad command. It's at least unsettling, especially when guys have teed off and taken Marmol deep at relatively alarming rate in 2011.

While Marmol's whiff rate on his slider is not horrible and actually "normal" (from 2008-2011: .34 .34 .47 .34) it isn't being put on the ground (GB rates: .48 .46 .46 .39) and isn't yielding pop-ups, his most under-rated weapon (IFF rates: .13 .12 .10 .06). As far as gopher balls, he's given up some on his slider for the first time since 2008.

Fastballs are a similar situation for Carlos. Whiff rates have returned from 2010's fantasy land (.23 .21 .31 .21) and remain exceptional for a heater. Balls in play have been a mixed bag and erratic against Marmol's fastball, except pop-ups which have evaporated this year (.26 .19 .16 .04).

Put it all together and you end up with a pitcher with a quality whiff rate (.31) which may not be as amazing as 2010 but still very good. Even his ground ball rate ends up being a wash, but there are has been a doubling in home runs per FB+LD and a halving of pop-ups per ball in play.

Take away those automatic outs in the infield, combined with a return from otherworldly whiff rates, and Marmol has fallen off the elite closer stack. Regain the separation, stop getting squared-up? I hope we get to find out sooner than later.

Vance Worley Preview

2011-07-20T12:04:00.000-05:00

On the hottest day Chicago has seen in a decade, rookie Vance Worley will take the ball for the Phillies against the Cubs. Worley was drafted after high school and again three years later, both times by Philadelphia, signing the second time around as a third round pick in 2008.

Worley's big league debut was just about one year ago and this will be his 12th Major League start.

He's a big guy, listed at 6'3" 230. He has two base hits this year but no successful sacrifice bunts. As a Sacramento product, he may be able to brush off the heat.

Worley is not a big strike out pitcher, but he limits walks and is just above average in producing ground balls. His sinker does less than I'd expect in terms of killing worms (so far), but his slider and even his curveball are doing their part. His four-seam fastball has a good pop-up rate and he fills the zone with it. He'll throw his slider for a strike more often than not, and is anything but a bat misser with it (or any of his offspeed pitches).

Four-seam fastball: 92 mph
Two-seam fastball: 91
Slider: 85
Change-up: 85
Curveball: 76

Next Challenge: The Resurgent Pirates

2011-07-08T12:44:00.001-05:00

I was born in 1971 and went to my first Major League game in 1979. I graduated from college in 1993. By virtue of my age, the quality baseball being played by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011 is not a shock to my system--I've seen it before.

The Pirates of the 1970s were always first or second in the National League East, with the exception being the lone sub-.500 season of the decade in 1973. And that was the season following the tragic death of Roberto Clemente. Barry Bonds was a Giant by the time I put on my cap-and-gown, but he had two MVPs as a member of the Pirates by that time, too.

While the 80s weren't exactly a heyday for the Bucs, it was more of a space between two eras in my mind. The bookend champions of '71 and '79 (with the We Are Family club occupying a permanent space in my brain) gave way to some lean years under Chuck Tanner, but Jim Leyland and Barry Jr. showed-up and things came back to life. Briefly. 1992 was the last time the Pirates had a winning record.

Since the wonderful 1990-1992 stretch, things have been historically ugly. Only three times have the Pirates finished over .450 and they've been under .400 just as often. Their last two seasons under John Russell were rock bottom, so the turnaround under Clint Hurdle has been hard to miss. Perhaps harder to anticipate.

The Cubs, struggling with the .400 mark themselves, are in town. There's not too much good news in this match-up for the North Siders, but if there is an edge it's actually their good health. The Pirates are without their top two catchers, a few infielders, pitchers and an outfielder.

Pirates DL as of July 8, 2011

7-day
Ronny Cedeno

15-day
Pedro Alvarez
Joe Beimel
Ryan Doumit
Evan Meek
Steven Pearce
Jose Tabata

60-day
Kevin Hart
Ross Ohlendorf
Chris Snyder

Our old buddy Ronny is eligible to come off the concussion DL this weekend, but he won't return until after the break.

The active Pirate catchers (Eric Fryer and Michael McKenry) have a combined big league experience of 28 games, with only six by McKenry coming prior to this season (2010 with Colorado). They're handling a staff that's been the key to their success, along with an improved defense. Both the pitching and defense are top 5 in the NL this year after being dead last in 2010 (ERA+ and DER, per Baseball Reference). The offense has gone from bad to nearly average, but the pitching and defense are leading the way.

Let's check-out the Buc's pitching staff, as currently assembled for the weekend. Pitch data is for 2011 only. First # is average MPH, second #, in parentheses, is times thrown. All pitch classifications are my own, speed is measured at 55ft from home plate.

As a staff, the 2011 Bucs have not struck out a ton of guys, but they've limited the walks giving them a better than average K:BB ratio. They're also good at getting ground balls and have (so far) been well better than average at limiting home runs.

Starters

James McDonald (Friday)

Fastball 93 (874)
Curveball 77 (333)
Sinker 93 (231)
Change-up 82 (138)
Slider 80 (5)
Cutter 89 (4)

And right off the bat we get the exception to the staff. McDonald is a decent-ish strike out pitcher but he struggles with the base on balls. He's also a fly ball pitcher who has picked-up a lot of infield pop flies along the way. So he's got that going for him.

Kevin Correia (Saturday)

Fastball 91 (445)
Sinker 91 (443)
Cutter 88 (434)
Curveball 79 (218)
Change-up 87 (135)

Typical of this staff, Correia pitches to contact. Not many walks or strike outs, he does get plenty of ground balls but it's not like he limits the fly balls. In 2011 his line drive rate has been superb, probably reflecting some combination of poor contact (good pitching) and good luck (line drives that are caught don't always get called a line drive).

Paul Maholm (Sunday)

Sinker 88 (674)
Change-up 82 (277)
Fastball 88 (265)
Curveball 73 (190)
Cutter 84 (152)
Slider 80 (129)

The veteran lefty, Maholm is having a solid season but is getting away with too many free passes. Being a ground ball pitcher helps mitigate that flaw, so he's fitting the crafty lefty mold nicely these days.

Charlie Morton (not scheduled)

Sinker 93 (1012)
Curveball 79 (175)
Fastball 93 (158)
Change-up 86 (128)
Cutter 90 (39)

Similar to Maholm, Morton is on the wrong side of the K:BB ratio (well below average) but is a Ground Ball Machine^TM.

Jeff Karstens (not scheduled)

Sinker 88 (456)
Fastball 90 (338)
Curveball 71 (207)
Change-up 81 (206)
Slider 79 (202)

Karstens is yet another pitch to contact guy. He doesn't walk many batters, but he's prone to the deep fly.

Right-handed relievers

Joel Hanrahan (closer)

Fastball 98 (451)
Slider 87 (79)

Hanrahan may also throw a two-seam sinker, but what ever. Not as extreme as Morton, but Hanrahan is another worm killer. He rarely walks batters and strikes out plenty. He's just nasty, and no one seems to be able to lift his pitches with any authority.

Chris Leroux

Fastball 95 (36)
Slider 84 (15)

Not much to go on, but he's been effective in limited work this year (11 batters faced).

Daniel McCutchen

Sinker 91 (338)
Slider 85 (141)
Change-up 84 (128)
Curveball 80 (18)

Not to be confused with snubbed All Star and emerging super star Andrew McCutchen, Daniel is ... wait for it ... a pitch to contact guy! Doesn't walk many, hasn't been getting as many ground balls as you'd expect so far.

Chris Resop

Fastball 94 (490)
Curveball 80 (134)
Sinker 92 (28)
Change-up 83 (20)

Power pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. Looks to be trending towards fly ball territory.

Jose Veras

Curveball 79 (226)
Fastball 95 (216)
Sinker 95 (103)
Change-up 84 (80)

Strike outs, walks and fly balls. Kinda scary if things don't go his way. Good stuff, though.

Left-handed relievers

Danny Moskos

Sinker 92 (79)
Fastball 93 (75)
Slider 84 (75)
Change-up 85 (25)

Another pitch to contact arm, this one a southpaw. Does not seem to be a ground ball pitcher.

Tony Watson

Sinker 93 (151)
Change-up 85 (30)
Slider 85 (26)

A left-handed Veras, but worse.

What to Expect from Ramon Ortiz

2011-07-05T10:52:00.000-05:00

With Big Z on the DL, Ramon Ortiz will make his first big league appearance since last May. He'll face Ross Detwiler, who is also making his first start of 2011 (a quick note on his stuff is at the bottom of this post).

Ortiz's 30 innings as a Dodger in 2010 were his first in the show since 2007. He spent 2008 in Japan pitching for Orix, returned to the States as a Fresno Giant in 2009, and bounced around AAA for the Mets and Rays after parting ways with the Dodgers in 2010. The Cubs will be his seventh major league team--not including the three clubs that never called him up.

Ortiz, to me, looks like a reliever. Sinker/slider without a ton of velocity. He doesn't walk many guys but has been more adept and getting ground balls outside of the majors. He's just average through his 2007 and 2010 stints, but solidly above average when pitching abroad or in AAA.

Look for a guy who will throw a lot of strikes, fool some guys with the off-speed stuff (on occasion), but generally gets hit harder than desired--more liners than grounders when things are not going his way.

From left to right, this next table shows league relative value for a few ratio stats. From left-to-right: strike outs per plate appearance (batter faced), walks+hit batters per PA, strike outs per walk+hit batter, and ground balls, line drives, fly balls and pop ups per ball in play, ending with home runs per fly ball+line drive.

The numbers are rolled-up by season (2008 does NOT include Japan) and give a fairly decent picture of how Ortiz has performed across winter ball, minor leagues and major leagues.

season	PA	KpP	BHpP	KpBH	GB	LD	FB	PU	HRFL
2007	409	57	78	80	99	118	94	100	125
2008	211	70	110	68	105	112	93	76	64
2009	687	107	48	221	114	92	88	74	51
2010	658	97	64	170	106	102	98	75	71
2011	531	119	55	233	115	87	90	65	89
	2496	96	64	174	109	100	92	77	78

He's done well for Iowa this year.

Putting aside most of the data, the rest is major league and PITCHf/x-based.

Raw numbers:

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	118	86.5	0.483	0.175	0.333	2.8	0.390	0.319	0.233	0.500	54%	25%	14%	7.1%	9.1%
Fastball	112	91.7	0.384	0.000	0.465	1.5	0.491	0.228	0.422	0.652	26%	26%	39%	8.7%	13.3%
Sinker	377	92.3	0.406	0.137	0.458	2.2	0.472	0.246	0.388	0.613	50%	18%	26%	6.5%	7.4%
Slider	424	85.4	0.526	0.269	0.350	2.3	0.517	0.337	0.247	0.588	42%	12%	29%	16.5%	20.0%
	1031	88.8	0.462	0.191	0.393	2.2	0.483	0.289	0.316	0.591	44%	17%	27%	11.1%	13.6%

"+" style with 100=average, 10 pts.=10% of league average

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	118	104	96	59	114	78	89	95	90	107	110	139	54	108	125
Fastball	112	99	90	0	107	88	88	100	117	122	72	124	115	93	185
Sinker	377	101	95	115	121	116	87	102	105	124	96	95	108	148	110
Slider	424	102	112	84	111	96	106	105	71	119	93	71	100	194	256
	1031	101	104	91	105	105	93	108	89	117	98	89	93	150	192

Scouting style with 50 as avearge, 10 pts.=1 standard deviation

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	118	56	47	38	55	56	44	48	47	48	54	39	38	51	47
Fastball	112	49	43	34	54	52	41	50	57	43	42	42	55	49	40
Sinker	377	52	47	52	60	48	41	51	52	43	48	52	52	54	49
Slider	424	53	58	45	55	51	54	52	39	44	48	58	50	64	30
	1031	53	56	46	56	47	39	56	40	40	49	56	47	61	29

In the limited big league sample, Ortiz has more pop-ups but gave up home runs. Strike throwing declined and he was really just average. Hopefully for the Cubs his AAA success will carry over, but I don't get a real warm-and-fuzzy feeling about this.

Detwiler is a tall and lanky lefty from St. Louis. He throws four pitches and will be making his 20th big league start.

Jordan Zimmermann, Two Years Later

2011-07-04T11:26:00.000-05:00

Happy 4th of July. Here's a look at two young starters facing off in DC today. Casey Coleman is filling in for Ryan Dempster and he's got his work cut out for him today.

The Nats' Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting pitcher. He has power stuff with finesse results. The real story his he's a first class strike thrower, a Wisconsin kid who, at age 25, is now pitching in phase two of career, post-Tommy John surgery.

If you go back just about two full years, you'll find Zimmermann's final pre-surgery start for the Nationals was against the Cubs. That was an eight strike out, one walk loss for the rookie Zimmermann. A few days later Zimmermann felt soreness during a side session. He didn't pitch again until late 2010, which was a fast comeback from the injury.

Zimmermann has had 16 starts in 2011, most of them good ones. He can be counted on--or so it seems--to get you into the seventh inning no more than 100 pitches, give or take a couple.

A couple starts stick out, especially in light of the "finesse" remark. These starts stick out in a good way and may be less oddballs than semi-regular events as Zimmermann develops.

In 14 starts Zimmermann has struck out six or fewer opponents. Of those 14, there was actually just a single 5 and 6, so it's a full dozen with four or fewer strikeouts. The oddballs mentioned above had 10 and 11 strike outs (one in May, one in June).

In short, you could get a strike zone filling Zimmermann that doesn't walk or strike out many batters. That kind of game would feature his defense. Alternatively, on a good day he'll mow down nearly half the guys he faces. All things being equal, a double-digit ground ball game is far more likely than a double-digit strike out game.

What hasn't changed from start-to-start is his control--he just fills the zone whether you can hit it or not. Zimmermann hasn't walked more than two hitters since his first start, so just pencil him in for a single free pass and leave some wiggle room on your scorecard.

Raw numbers

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	86.6	0.494	0.085	0.354	4.9	0.422	0.354	0.246	0.435	46%	26%	26%	2.2%	0.0%
Curveball	488	78.8	0.441	0.233	0.326	2.2	0.500	0.307	0.408	0.516	56%	20%	21%	3.2%	12.8%
Fastball	2249	93.8	0.467	0.155	0.490	1.6	0.612	0.221	0.321	0.515	41%	21%	30%	8.1%	7.4%
Slider	663	86.5	0.498	0.276	0.303	1.8	0.569	0.353	0.355	0.468	40%	24%	27%	9.4%	4.3%
Total	3566	90.0	0.470	0.185	0.426	1.8	0.580	0.269	0.335	0.499	43%	22%	28%	7.2%	6.8%

"+" style (100=average, 10 pts=10% of league average, higher is more but not always better)

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	104	98	29	121	136	96	105	95	93	94	144	100	33	0
Curveball	488	102	113	83	103	105	108	111	88	105	112	105	84	55	178
Fastball	2249	102	109	95	113	94	109	97	89	96	114	100	88	86	103
Slider	663	103	106	87	96	75	117	110	101	95	89	141	93	111	55
Total	3566	102	106	89	114	86	112	101	94	99	96	116	97	97	96

Scouting style (50=average, 10 pts=1 SD, higher is better not not always more)

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	56	49	30	58	40	48	52	49	52	48	38	50	42	62
Curveball	488	53	58	45	51	49	55	54	44	48	55	48	46	45	41
Fastball	2249	53	56	49	57	51	57	49	46	51	54	50	46	48	50
Slider	663	54	54	46	48	55	61	54	51	52	46	39	48	52	56
Total	3566	56	59	45	65	60	68	51	44	51	48	42	48	49	51

Giants Return

2011-06-28T10:39:00.000-05:00

Barry Zito is coming off the DL to make his first start since April. Ryan Vogelsong opens the twin bill with his second appearance against the Cubs. Vogelsong will face Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez will get the ball from Mike Quade for the nightcap.

Tim Lincecum has matured/developed/changed, but it is still a power game. He'll face Ryan Dempster. The final game of the set will feature Matt Cain and Carlos Zambrano.

Images are clickable. Pitch speeds shown in parentheses are 2011 only. I'm lazy, but I'll add some notes and what-not during the series. I'll annoyingly retweet the link when I do.

Ryan Vogelsong
Fastball (92), Sinker (92), Curveball (77), Cutter (88), Change-up (84)

Barry Zito
Fastball (84), Sinker (84), Curveball (70), Change-up (75), Slider (81)

Tim Lincecum
Fastball* (94), Change-up (85), Slider (86), Sinker* (93), Curveball (80)

*both are variants of two-seam fastballs, neither sinks but one tails the other cuts.

Matt Cain
Fastball (92), Change-up (86), Curveball (79), Slider (86), Sinker (92)

Middle Game in KC - Danny Duffy Preview

2011-06-25T17:53:00.000-05:00

Danny Duffy will face Carlos Zambrano in just a few minutes. The skinny on Duffy: high three-quarter delivery, left-handed, throws hard, rookie. He was a 3rd round pick in 2007, right out of High School.

Level       IP   G   GS
Rookie     46.1  15  13
Low-A      81.1  17  17
High-A    140.2  27  27
Double-A   39.2   7   7
Triple-A   36.0   7   7
Majors     34.0   7   7

Kinda green.

His Spring Training PITCHf/x data from 2009 and 2010 don't show a slider, but he is throwing one this year. This goes with his curveball and change-up, and of course his bread-and-butter four-seam fastball. I haven't ruled out (or in) two-seamers in the margins.

Although Duffy was a high-K low-BB pitcher in the minor leagues, he has struggled since his promotion. But his last outing was well in line with his minor league numbers.

Gcar	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	BF	Pit	GB	PU	GSc	SB	CS	PO
1	May 18	KCR		TEX	L,4-5	4.0	4	2	2	6	4	0	0	21	94	6	1	44	4	0	0
2	May 24	KCR	@	BAL	L,3-5	5.1	5	2	2	3	6	0	0	23	97	5	0	53	2	0	0
3	May 29	KCR	@	TEX	L,6-7	6.0	5	3	3	1	4	2	0	23	95	7	0	53	0	1	0
June		Tm		Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	BF	Pit	GB	PU	GSc	SB	CS	PO
4	Jun 3	KCR		MIN	L,2-5	5.0	7	3	3	3	3	1	0	23	96	9	1	41	1	1	1
5	Jun 8	KCR		TOR	L,8-9	4.0	8	5	5	4	1	1	0	22	96	8	1	23	1	2	2
6	Jun 14	KCR	@	OAK	W,7-4	6.0	4	2	2	4	2	1	0	26	104	6	3	54	0	0	0
7	Jun 19	KCR	@	STL	L,4-5	3.2	6	2	2	1	9	0	0	18	90	3	0	49	0	0	0
		KCR				34.0	39	19	19	22	29	5	0	156

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/25/2011.

Playing the Slots with Bruce Chen

2011-06-24T17:37:00.000-05:00

Bruce Chen is coming of the disabled list* to face the Cubs tonight. Chen has been with the Royals for a couple of years, they're his eighth team and approximately third life in baseball.

*left lat strain per numerous Google search results

Chen was a free agent from Panama and signed by the Braves way back in 1993. He's now 34-years old, and the hard-throwing left-handed prospect is a distant memory. He remains left-handed.

These days Chen throws in the 80s--topping out over 90--and likes to cut the ball and change arm angles.

He seems to (for the most part) throw a two-seam fastball and a curveball from a low position to lefties but just the sinker from down low to righties. The higher position includes a four-seam fastball, the curveball, a change-up and the cutter.

He'll occasionally mix the grip/angle pairs but he's seemingly settling on these. Oh, sometimes the curve or cutter may look like a slider, but it's been a pretty clear separation since April.
He is just of the DL so maybe he changed things up (again) while rehabbing.

Now for Chen 2011 in pictures.

For the flat view (side and top) I made the curveball bubble bigger for the low-angle pitches to lefties. For the catcher's views you'll have to cope with the rudimentary format and use your imagination a little.

Put it all together and you have a guy who gets a lot of fly balls, throws a medium number of strikes and doesn't miss many bats.

Mark Buehrle: World Class Nibbler

2011-06-21T11:51:00.000-05:00

To appreciate Mark Buehrle you really need to do one thing--look at where he puts the ball. To set the stage, however, a quick refresher on his stuff.

First and foremost, he does not throw hard. He throws five pitches--the rare slider (crammed into his cutter and curve below) and possibly a second look on his change-up (crammed into his change-up and cutter below) aside.

His pitches can be a pain to classify at times, but it's worth the effort to get to the heat maps shown below.

Fastball (FA)  87.0 mph
Cutter   (FC)  82.6
Sinker   (SI)  86.0
Change   (CH)  79.5
Curve    (CU)  71.6

Buehrle is throwing fewer sinkers these days, and fewer groundballs are coming as a result. His pop-up rate has increased, but that's for another day.

See what I mean?

Keep an Eye on Ben Wells

2011-06-21T11:05:00.000-05:00

Ben Wells of the Boise Hawks will be on MiLB.tv Wednesday night. The Hawks' Opening Day starter gets the home opener, too.

Wells was selected by the Cubs in the 7th round of the 2010 draft and signed for $530,000. Barely 18 now (born 9/10/92), the big righty could be a fun one to watch as he develops. A graduate of Bryant High School and a native of Alexander, Arkansas, he's at least 6'4" and 220 lbs. He is listed at 6'1", but he's grown.

Both the money and talent say third round. Committed to Arkansas, he was going to be a Razorback and was far from a sure thing. Put it all together and the Cubs had good reason to go over slot (which is normal, anyway).

"Ben, who grew to about 6-4 in the last six months was clocked at 95 miles per hour on his fastball late in the high school season. He was consistently around 92 or 93 with a knee-buckling slider and a developing split-finger for a change of pace."

"I only struck out six or seven and my pitch count was way down. I let them hit ground balls. That’s when I really felt like I developed a lot more as a pitcher."

His reputation also grew.

Perfect game in state 7-A final, with 92-94 FB, propelled stock upwards; was just in mid-80s earlier in year

He's a kid, just 17 when signed, but he seems mature at comfortable with himself in these interviews.

According to a high school bio his favorite subject was math and he likes tacos. And he enjoys pitching. A lot.

"I’m just trying now to throw to contact a lot because with my off-speed stuff and my fastball’s got a lot of run, I can get a lot of groundballs."

"I’ve been working on a change-up a lot. At the beginning of the season, I really wasn’t throwing it a whole lot. I was just fastball, slider, which was working fine but when you don’t have a third pitch like that, the batters can really get used to that. They can lay off your one off-speed pitch and just hit your fastballs. And, if you’re not locating either one of those, it’s going to raise your pitch count up a lot. So I’ve really been working hard on getting a change-up, locating it and being able to throw it when I want and being able to throw it for a strike every time. I started throwing it against Van Buren and that’s when everything kind of fell together that game."

Prospect gawking is always fun, and Wells should be one to keep watching. His first start wasn't bad, but wasn't great. He got through five innings, walked two and hit a batter. He also struck-out four and was credited with seven ground outs. Working like that could get him moving quickly.

Gavin Floyd's Subtle Changes

2011-06-20T18:29:00.001-05:00

Crosstown series starts tonight at The Cell. Gavin Floyd is Ozzie's game one starter against Big Z.

Floyd's been a solid part of the White Sox rotation for four years now, even making ten starts back in 2007. His numbers are coming out just fine again, despite some slight changes in his pitch mix and results.

Year	Age	W	L	W-L%	ERA	GS	GF	CG	IP	ERA+	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	25	17	8	.680	3.84	33	0	1	206.1	119	8.3	1.3	3.1	6.3	2.07
2009	26	11	11	.500	4.06	30	0	1	193.0	116	8.3	1.0	2.8	7.6	2.76
2010	27	10	13	.435	4.08	31	0	1	187.1	106	9.6	0.7	2.8	7.3	2.60
2011	28	6	6	.500	3.94	13	1	1	89.0	102	8.5	0.9	2.2	6.7	3.00

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/20/2011.

After a two year period of missed bats, Floyd has dropped back towards 2008 levels. His ground ball rate has regressed, too, but he's getting getting better calls on takes.

Taking a look at his pitch types (Fastball and sinker around 92, slider and changed around 85, curveball about 80) you'll notice a drop in sinkers in 2011, down to 6% of his selection (19,11 and 16 percent in the preceding years).

OK, so less sinkers means fewer ground balls ... but why the missed bats? Floyd is actually down on all four of his pitches in this area.

Whiff Rates by Pitch Type, 2008-2011

Change-up
0.200
0.246
0.255
0.115

That's a precipitous drop.

Curveball
0.354
0.316
0.281
0.217

That looks like a steady trend.

Slider
0.307
0.327
0.415
0.296

Call that one good year.

Sinker
0.106
0.092
0.087
0.051

That's is more of a to-contact pitch and barely thrown this year, so wtvr.

Fastball
0.105
0.132
0.126
0.091

Again, a to-contact pitch (to a lesser extent), but this makes five out of five pitches dropping whiff rate in 2011.

The resulting drop in strikeouts is offset by the drop in free passes, but, as shown above, Floyd's league/park neutral performance (ERA+) has taken a dip. Again.

Yankee Staff Overview

2011-06-17T10:07:00.008-05:00

Note: this will be updated a few times today as I add notes and charts. The overview and details on Freddy are up already -- HP 10am 6/17
Charts for Marquez and Logan up, adding Ayala who was left out by mistake -- HP 4pm 6/17
AJ and more -- HP 8am 6/18
Notes on yesterday's relievers added with their charts; last batch coming soon -- HP 9am 6/19

Interleague play round 2 starts today, the Cubs host the Yankees before a series against the White Sox on the South Side next week. The Yankee pitching staff has been in flux with lots of injuries and roster moves. As of Thursday night, this is who the Cubs expect to face over the three-game series at Wrigley.

Starters
Freddy Garcia Fastball (88 mph)/Cutter+ (81)/Splitter (80)/Change-up (81)/Curveball (72)/Slider+ (75)
A.J. Burnett Fastball (93)/Curveball (83)/Change-up (89)/Sinker (93)
CC Sabathia Fastball (94)/Slider* (82)/Sinker (93)/Change-up (87)

Closer
Mariano Rivera Cutter (91)/Sinker (92)

LHRP
Boone Logan Fastball (93)/Slider (82)/Sinker (93)/Change-up (89)

RHRP
Luis Ayala Sinker (92)/Cutter (86)/Fastball (92)/Change-up (85)/Slider (81)/Curveball (74)
Jeffrey Marquez Sinker (89)/Slider (85)/Curveball (75)/Fastball (89)/Change-up (81)
Hector Noesi Fastball (94)/Slider (85)/Curveball (79)/Sinker (93)/Change-up (85)
David Robertson Fastball (94)/Curveball (81)/Change-up (88)
Cory Wade Fastball (89)/Change-up (82)/Curveball (74)/Sinker**/Slider**

+Garcia's "cutter" is what you'd recognize as his "slider"; the short curves in the 70s took the slider label ... but those may be something else, too
*CC throws a few curveballs, too
**Wade has only thrown one of this pitch so far

The Cubs won't see starters Ivan Nova and Brian Gordon.

The bullpen is interesting--Mo is obviously one of the all time greats and you probably know Logan from his days with the White Sox. Otherwise a fairly anonymous group.

The first game of the series will feature Venezuelan veteran Freddy Garcia. Freddy has been in the big leagues since 1999 when he won 17 games and worked over 200 innings for the Mariners. Since his heyday with Seattle, Freddy has pitched for the White Sox (twice), Phillies, Tigers and now the Yankees. He hasn't thrown over 200 innings since 2006 but he did throw more innings in 2010 than he had over the previous three seasons combined.

If Garcia gets the first out of the sixth inning against the Cubs, take note. He'll have completed 2000 innings pitched in his career at that point.

Garcia's stuff isn't what it used to be, but he throws a ton of different pitches. Lefties see a whole mess of stuff, mostly off-speed. Freddy clearly likes to work the outer half of the plate, which is advisable with his velocity, or lack thereof. His fastball is running sub-90 and down towards 85 these days. Freddy will be facing Doug Davis, an opponent that will keep the radar gun readings in the same range.

First update: with Garcia struggling early, Marquez gets up in the pen in the bottom of the third. He made his big league debut last year for the White Sox.

Basically a sinker/slider guy, Marquez barely pushes the velocity up from the low readings Freddy and DD have been putting up so far. He'll throw some four-seam fastballs, but mostly the sinker, throws a change to lefties and mixes in curveballs. This is his second stint in the Yankee organization, he was originally drafted by them in the 41st round in 2004.

Marquez didn't get in, Logan could be next in the seventh if Garcia falters.

Garcia survived the seventh, but Logan is still someone the Cubs will see this weekend, if not today--he's the only southpaw at Joe Girardi's disposal.

Ayala came on for the 8th inning.

Game two is set for later this afternoon. It will be hard to match Friday's opener in terms of excitement. Burnett will face Ryan Dempster and a pretty well rested bullpen. Marmol got four outs and threw nearly 30 pitches, but he'll surely be available.

Burnett is going to be a big switch from Garcia, featuring a hard four-seam fastball and a power curve. A.J. throws change-ups to left-handed batters and a smattering of sinkers to both left and right.

He'll work away from righties but isn't scared to attack the zone when the platoon effect is supposedly hurting him. Guess what, he has essentially no platoon split advantage. Stack your righties as much as you want, it makes no difference.

I	Split	PA	H	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HBP	BAbip	tOPS+
	vs RHB as RHP	3715	767	103	351	764	2.18	.236	.316	.383	.699	44	.274	99
	vs LHB as RHP	4195	901	80	427	922	2.16	.246	.330	.374	.704	48	.305	101

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2011.

Fun game, despite the bad decision to send Carlos Pena on what turned into a 7-2 LDDP. Burnett was tough on the Cubs, but didn't get out of the sixth inning. First man out of the rightfield bullpen was Cory Wade, who picked-up what could have been a double play grounder (E4) but was the beneficiary of the aforementioned windmilling.

Wade last saw action in 2009 with the Dodgers (if you remember him facing the Cubs you have a better memory than I do, which may or may not be a very low bar). His fastball went from just over 90 (on average) to just under between '08 and '09, and he's been over 89 but still not even at the middling velocity he had before shoulder problems sidelined him in Spring 2010 (more on Wade can be dug up at MSTI.

Noesi took over in the seventh, making quick work out of Tony Campana and Kosuke Fukduome. Starlin Castro battled for 10 pitches before flying out.

Robertson took the eight, and was overwhelming. He struck out Blake DeWitt and Pena on three pitches with a ground out by Aramis Ramirez sandwiched in between. Robertson threw eight of his cutting four-seam fastballs (how's that for a hedging pitch classification?) in his inning of work, along with three curves. The fastballs yielded two called strikes, one foul ball strike, four whiffs and the ARam grounder. Yikes. Seven were up in the zone, with the lone knee height heater being the called strike.

Mo closed it. What can I say about Mo. Besides this.

The last pitcher is none other than CC Sabathia.

The Cubs Offense So Far

2011-06-13T08:47:00.000-05:00

What a road trip. 10 games, only two wins, merely 28 runs scored. The Cubs were actually in the Philadelphia games, but walked away with three straight losses after taking the opener.

The trip closed out with a second straight, but still rare, rough outing from Sean Marshall and news of a blister shutting down Kerry Wood.

Now the first place Brewers are meeting the team at Wrigley for a four-game set. Doh.

Meanwhile, Jeff Baker is set to return from the DL. He'll probably take Wood's spot since the Cubs currently have an extra pitcher in the form of Casey Coleman. Reed Johnson won't be back quite yet, thanks to being hit in the head by a pitch while rehabbing. Alfonso Soriano is supposed to be a few days away, meaning the Cubs' offense will be back to full strength before long.

Not that "full strength" is going to overwhelm anybody, but it will be better than what we've seen over the past two weeks. Heck, regression to the mean would predict an impending improvement in offense.

So far

For no reason in particular (beyond wanting to do something with the massive amounts of 2011 pitches I've classified), let's take a look at some of the Cubs' hitters via PITCHf/x. There's just about enough data to talk about pitch type performance at the hitter level, at least in a few cases.

These tables are sortable.

Hitter	Fastball/Sinker	Change/Splitter	Curveball	Slider/Cutter
Dewitt	60%	13%	6%	16%
Campana	58%	15%	10%	14%
Barney	58%	9%	8%	18%
Fukudome	57%	15%	9%	13%
Colvin	56%	12%	13%	18%
Byrd	56%	11%	9%	21%
Ramirez	56%	10%	8%	20%
Hill	55%	12%	10%	11%
Castro	52%	10%	10%	23%
Pena	50%	16%	11%	16%
Soto	49%	12%	17%	22%
Johnson	47%	9%	11%	17%
Soriano	45%	7%	17%	24%
Baker	44%	12%	8%	24%
Zambrano	41%	15%	21%	21%

Hitter	Pit.	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
Soriano	629	0.566	0.272	0.402	2.3	0.442	0.479	0.303
Pena	872	0.453	0.316	0.377	3.7	0.459	0.242	0.221
Zambrano	125	0.600	0.307	0.427	4.1	0.464	0.478	0.111
Soto	628	0.393	0.308	0.259	2.1	0.533	0.191	0.418
Byrd	610	0.556	0.218	0.381	2.2	0.548	0.377	0.298
Hill	229	0.402	0.359	0.152	1.7	0.546	0.250	0.352
Baker	200	0.485	0.165	0.309	2.2	0.505	0.303	0.272
Colvin	311	0.531	0.261	0.388	2.3	0.469	0.382	0.267
Ramirez	735	0.546	0.180	0.357	3.0	0.536	0.337	0.224
Dewitt	216	0.463	0.090	0.340	1.6	0.546	0.276	0.356
Fukudome	796	0.349	0.158	0.363	1.8	0.510	0.167	0.387
Castro	925	0.479	0.140	0.348	1.9	0.529	0.317	0.353
Barney	902	0.429	0.085	0.380	1.3	0.573	0.314	0.443
Campana	124	0.403	0.220	0.300	1.9	0.484	0.266	0.333
Johnson	132	0.432	0.140	0.439	1.6	0.576	0.304	0.475

Hitter	Pit.	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Soriano	629	0.741	31%	16%	44%	8.6%	17.1%
Pena	872	0.570	39%	21%	31%	9.9%	14.5%
Zambrano	125	0.700	55%	25%	20%	0.0%	11.1%
Soto	628	0.505	42%	21%	28%	8.4%	7.5%
Byrd	610	0.529	53%	29%	13%	5.1%	5.3%
Hill	229	0.511	44%	27%	22%	6.7%	4.5%
Baker	200	0.588	51%	33%	14%	2.0%	4.2%
Colvin	311	0.211	47%	12%	30%	10.5%	4.2%
Ramirez	735	0.446	37%	23%	30%	10.8%	4.1%
Dewitt	216	0.491	37%	21%	28%	14.0%	3.6%
Fukudome	796	0.477	55%	23%	20%	1.5%	3.5%
Castro	925	0.458	56%	19%	20%	4.8%	1.1%
Barney	902	0.401	50%	23%	20%	7.2%	1.1%
Campana	124	0.375	67%	21%	13%	0.0%	0.0%
Johnson	132	0.750	42%	25%	25%	8.3%	0.0%

Philly Staff Overview

2011-06-09T14:31:00.000-05:00

Cubs are riding a one-game win streak into Philadelphia. They'll miss Cole Hamels and face the sixth starter (Joe Blanton is on the DL) in game one. The Big Three of Four remain over the weekend.

Click images for larger versions, the table between the image sets is sortable (summary, images, table, images ... go forth and scroll). All pitch classifications are my own.

Starters
Kyle Kendrick Sinker/Change/Cutter*
Roy Halladay Cutter/Sinker/Change/Curve
Cliff Lee Sinker/Cutter*/Change/Curve/Fastball
Roy Oswalt Fastball/Change/Curve/Sinker/Slider

Closer
Ryan Madson Sinker/Change/Fastball/Cutter

LHRP
Antonio Bastardo Fastball/Slider
J.C. Romero Fastball/Sinker/Slider/Change

RHRP
Jose Contreras Sinker/Cutter/Forkball/Fastball
Michael Stutes Fastball/Slider/Change
David Herndon Sinker/Slider/Change
Danys Baez Fastball/Curveball

*will throw some sliders

last	cfx	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB	LD	FB	PU	HRFL
Baez	CU	93	77.2	0.301	0.250	0.321	3.3	0.398	0.143	0.455	0.250	0.50	0.08	0.25	0.167	0.000
Baez	FA	345	92.5	0.493	0.118	0.371	2.2	0.594	0.257	0.345	0.460	0.54	0.21	0.20	0.057	0.057
Baez		438	89.3	0.452	0.136	0.364	2.4	0.553	0.224	0.362	0.434	0.54	0.19	0.20	0.071	0.051
Bastardo	CH	3	86.7	0.333	0.000	0.000		0.333	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.000	0.000
Bastardo	FA	243	93.6	0.543	0.265	0.455	3.0	0.535	0.292	0.165	0.405	0.22	0.22	0.41	0.162	0.087
Bastardo	SL	130	84.5	0.508	0.515	0.333	3.6	0.385	0.388	0.268	0.300	0.40	0.30	0.10	0.200	0.000
Bastardo		376	90.4	0.529	0.347	0.412	3.3	0.481	0.328	0.192	0.396	0.25	0.25	0.33	0.167	0.071
Contreras	FA	28	93.7	0.464	0.154	0.462	2.0	0.571	0.167	0.231	0.600	0.20	0.60	0.20	0.000	0.000
Contreras	FC	52	88.4	0.346	0.500	0.278	2.8	0.462	0.250	0.450	0.500	0.75	0.25	0.00	0.000	0.000
Contreras	FS	15	80.8	0.600	0.778	0.111	2.0	0.133	0.538	0.000	0.000	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.000
Contreras	SI	71	93.1	0.380	0.111	0.296	2.1	0.394	0.326	0.520	0.250	0.25	0.19	0.25	0.313	0.000
Contreras		166	90.6	0.404	0.313	0.299	2.3	0.422	0.313	0.417	0.346	0.35	0.27	0.19	0.192	0.000
Halladay	CH	240	83.8	0.646	0.432	0.271	2.0	0.354	0.626	0.333	0.457	0.70	0.17	0.11	0.022	0.077
Halladay	CU	199	77.8	0.447	0.427	0.236	1.5	0.467	0.387	0.453	0.267	0.60	0.07	0.13	0.200	0.000
Halladay	FC	718	91.8	0.461	0.169	0.474	1.6	0.625	0.175	0.312	0.432	0.42	0.17	0.25	0.161	0.061
Halladay	SI	330	92.6	0.470	0.155	0.342	1.7	0.530	0.277	0.305	0.462	0.63	0.13	0.21	0.038	0.077
Halladay		1487	88.8	0.491	0.253	0.374	1.6	0.539	0.333	0.329	0.426	0.55	0.15	0.20	0.107	0.064
Herndon	CH	16	83.3	0.438	0.286	0.286	8.0	0.313	0.273	0.200	0.000	0.67	0.00	0.33	0.000	0.000
Herndon	SI	180	92.7	0.433	0.064	0.423	2.9	0.422	0.269	0.283	0.600	0.65	0.08	0.23	0.050	0.250
Herndon	SL	51	83.1	0.373	0.316	0.211	2.2	0.471	0.259	0.429	0.333	0.44	0.11	0.33	0.111	0.000
Herndon		247	90.1	0.421	0.125	0.375	2.8	0.425	0.268	0.314	0.519	0.62	0.08	0.25	0.058	0.176
Kendrick	CH	96	84.0	0.531	0.255	0.353	13.7	0.375	0.367	0.158	0.211	0.42	0.26	0.21	0.105	0.000
Kendrick	FC	113	87.4	0.460	0.135	0.385	3.4	0.531	0.226	0.292	0.520	0.28	0.32	0.36	0.040	0.000
Kendrick	SI	291	90.2	0.464	0.133	0.363	1.7	0.581	0.254	0.327	0.515	0.53	0.12	0.31	0.044	0.103
Kendrick		500	88.4	0.476	0.160	0.366	2.6	0.530	0.277	0.304	0.464	0.46	0.19	0.30	0.054	0.055
Lee	CH	165	85.4	0.533	0.284	0.330	2.2	0.503	0.366	0.240	0.618	0.38	0.18	0.29	0.147	0.063
Lee	CU	110	76.4	0.500	0.400	0.400	3.4	0.491	0.393	0.362	0.273	0.64	0.27	0.09	0.000	0.000
Lee	FA	78	92.1	0.372	0.103	0.552	1.2	0.551	0.171	0.432	0.300	0.60	0.10	0.30	0.000	0.000
Lee	FC	314	86.8	0.541	0.229	0.365	1.3	0.627	0.342	0.323	0.710	0.45	0.20	0.29	0.058	0.118
Lee	SI	687	92.4	0.445	0.203	0.435	1.4	0.626	0.237	0.340	0.477	0.41	0.23	0.32	0.054	0.050
Lee		1354	88.9	0.479	0.233	0.404	1.5	0.596	0.291	0.331	0.549	0.43	0.21	0.29	0.064	0.068
Madson	CH	122	85.1	0.533	0.538	0.215	8.5	0.221	0.463	0.176	0.125	0.50	0.13	0.19	0.188	0.000
Madson	FA	172	95.3	0.465	0.188	0.475	1.8	0.535	0.275	0.368	0.407	0.44	0.26	0.22	0.074	0.000
Madson	FC	41	92.5	0.293	0.083	0.500	2.2	0.610	0.250	0.667	0.600	0.60	0.00	0.40	0.000	0.000
Madson	SI	80	94.7	0.588	0.149	0.447	1.5	0.388	0.531	0.400	0.421	0.68	0.05	0.26	0.000	0.000
Madson		415	91.9	0.492	0.284	0.387	2.4	0.422	0.400	0.393	0.358	0.54	0.15	0.24	0.075	0.000
Oswalt	CH	197	82.8	0.574	0.106	0.407	2.0	0.548	0.371	0.264	0.545	0.55	0.16	0.15	0.145	0.059
Oswalt	CU	86	70.6	0.500	0.349	0.256	9.5	0.279	0.371	0.118	0.529	0.59	0.18	0.12	0.118	0.000
Oswalt	FA	400	92.3	0.480	0.161	0.432	1.5	0.620	0.257	0.344	0.500	0.47	0.14	0.31	0.077	0.057
Oswalt	SI	130	91.3	0.362	0.128	0.404	2.6	0.477	0.191	0.395	0.045	0.73	0.09	0.18	0.000	0.000
Oswalt	SL	48	84.3	0.333	0.188	0.125	1.1	0.688	0.067	0.480	0.364	0.45	0.09	0.36	0.091	0.000
Oswalt		861	87.4	0.477	0.163	0.392	1.9	0.552	0.282	0.331	0.454	0.54	0.14	0.23	0.093	0.044
Romero	CH	54	79.5	0.444	0.167	0.292	3.3	0.611	0.238	0.375	0.615	0.46	0.23	0.15	0.154	0.000
Romero	FA	38	89.4	0.342	0.077	0.462	1.3	0.632	0.071	0.500	0.667	0.17	0.33	0.50	0.000	0.000
Romero	SI	119	89.9	0.454	0.259	0.333	3.8	0.538	0.145	0.222	0.227	0.73	0.05	0.23	0.000	0.000
Romero	SL	40	79.3	0.250	0.400	0.200	2.2	0.325	0.185	0.615	0.500	0.25	0.00	0.50	0.250	0.000
Romero		251	85.9	0.402	0.228	0.327	2.7	0.534	0.162	0.354	0.422	0.53	0.13	0.27	0.067	0.000
Stutes	CH	3	83.0	0.667	0.000	0.500		0.667	0.000		2.000	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.000	0.000
Stutes	FA	136	93.4	0.412	0.179	0.357	2.5	0.485	0.186	0.309	0.269	0.31	0.08	0.35	0.269	0.091
Stutes	SL	102	82.4	0.412	0.381	0.310	1.9	0.500	0.314	0.472	0.692	0.46	0.15	0.23	0.154	0.200
Stutes		241	88.6	0.415	0.260	0.340	2.2	0.494	0.238	0.374	0.450	0.35	0.13	0.30	0.225	0.118

Getting Beat by Pujols

2011-06-05T12:03:00.000-05:00

Albert Pujols is good at baseball, as was obvious yesterday. He hit a two-run home run off a Randy Wells fastball early in the game and won the game with a walk-off shot off a Jeff Samardzija ~~cutter~~ slider.

The fastball was up in Albert's sweet spot--he kills the high pitch down the middle, usually to right-center field, usually into the bleachers. The slider was down below the zone, a full two-feet beneath the fastball (3.3 feet vs. 1.3). Both pitches were 2-1 offerings. Both were down the middle.

Will Demp Keep on Track? Will Jaime Bounce Back?

2011-06-03T09:52:00.000-05:00

Ryan Dempster and Jaime Garcia kick-off a three game set between the Cardinals and the Cubs tonight. Garcia has been solid-to-outstanding this year, until a disastrous outing against the Rockies. Dempster has been solid-to-awful, with the awful almost washed away.

Check out the game scores posted by the two starters this season.

The Cubs are reeling, so a good outing to open this road trip would give Demp the stopper label for at least a little while. But I'd expect Garcia to be as tough, if not tougher, despite the blip last week.

Hello Rodrigo

2011-05-26T21:44:00.001-05:00

In a move that's sure to put Ramon Ortiz into a deep funk, the Cubs sent Ryan Buchter to Atlanta for veteran inning eater Rodrigo Lopez. I don't like the term inning eater, but it applies. He'll get you into the sixth inning, throw strikes and get hit hard.

Lopez is a 35-year old native of Mexico who has been in pro ball since 1993. The Padres signed him in 1995 after he had been pitching as a teenager in the Mexican League. 16 years later the Cubs will be his seventh big league franchise and sixth Major League team. The Braves gave him a shot this Spring, but that ended after a March 31 exhibition start in Turner Field.

The Cubs faced Lopez twice in recent years, once seeing him in a Phillies uniform and more recently as a Diamondback. So this is now the third annual Rodrigo Lopez post. Really not much to say, as we already learned about his new fifth pitch (curveball) last year.

Click images to enlarge. PITCHf/x data is from MLBAM but the pitch classifications are my own.

On a scouting scale, derived from PITCHf/x metrics moving 10 points per standard deviation from the mean, Lopez is a 65 strike thrower but 35 bat misser--his stuff is not very good, but it's in the zone.

Contact quality is another problem, he's around 40-45. Clearly a step below average, the ball is usually in the air but, well, let's just say it's not like pop flies are dominating the mix. Whatever the type, his nkSLG adds up to .586 and 9.7% of his flies and liners clear the outfield fence.

Let's put that together. Throws strikes. Pitches to contact. Gets hit harder than average.

Lopez's fastball is his best pitch, rating closer to average. That's right, his best pitch is his meh fastball. Put this guy out there back-to-back with Doug Davis and enjoy!

Buchter moves on to his third organization, having been acquired from the Nationals for Matt Avery in 2008. The lefty has averaged 10.7 strike outs and 6.0 walks per nine innings in his minor league career.

This makes the cost of acquiring Lopez seem very low. The cost of feeding Lopez innings is another question.

Aww Gee Whiz

2011-05-25T10:24:00.000-05:00

Here's a graph and data dump on Dillon Gee, the Mets starter for tonight's game. Of course his name makes me think of old number 10.

I'm too stunned by Tuesday's blowout by the Cubs to do much more than this. It's Casey Coleman against Gee, hopefully nobody gets hurt. And hopefully the weather cooperates.

Actual values:

Pitch	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	151	82.8	0.530	0.388	0.263	2.0	0.457	0.439	0.339	0.500	54%	25%	18%	3.6%	8.3%
Curveball	53	73.6	0.358	0.421	0.263	2.1	0.415	0.323	0.611	0.833	17%	17%	50%	16.7%	25.0%
4seam FB	150	90.3	0.413	0.194	0.468	3.9	0.507	0.243	0.380	0.619	29%	10%	43%	19.0%	9.1%
2seam FB	165	90.3	0.406	0.060	0.388	1.5	0.503	0.293	0.444	0.216	54%	11%	22%	13.5%	0.0%
Slider	27	81.6	0.407	0.000	0.364	2.8	0.407	0.313	0.500	0.286	29%	43%	29%	0.0%	0.0%
Total	546	86.1	0.438	0.230	0.356	2.2	0.478	0.326	0.413	0.424	44%	17%	27%	11.1%	6.8%

League relative (100=avg)

Pitch	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	151	100	106	131	90	56	104	130	131	107	110	139	69	55	114
Curveball	53	96	92	150	83	100	90	117	131	170	34	89	200	288	347
4seam FB	150	98	96	118	108	229	91	107	105	116	81	48	126	202	126
2seam FB	165	99	95	50	102	79	93	122	120	44	104	58	92	307	0
Slider	27	97	86	0	116	117	84	98	143	58	64	253	100	0	0
Total	546	98	99	110	95	105	92	122	116	84	98	89	93	150	96

League relative by z-score*10 (50=avg)

Pitch	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	151	50	54	59	46	62	52	63	59	48	54	39	42	45	48
Curveball	53	44	45	64	43	50	44	56	66	28	24	53	75	70	21
4seam FB	150	47	48	53	55	33	43	52	52	45	45	67	59	67	47
2seam FB	165	49	47	44	51	53	45	56	58	68	52	62	48	66	61
Slider	27	46	40	19	56	47	40	49	66	63	37	10	50	35	63
Total	546	45	48	54	45	47	37	66	64	59	49	56	47	61	51

Samardzija Devolves

2011-05-25T07:44:00.001-05:00

Tracking Jeff Samardzija's development from college wide receiver to big league reliever has been somewhat of a hobby over the past few years. From figuring out what he threw, to the change from slider to curve and, most recently, optimism over the curveball/cutter combo.

I started to see signs of what I would call "progress" earlier this year--in terms of his stuff. His curveball got some depth and he was working on a cutter.

Here you can see which pitch he was throwing over time. Barely any overlap.

Now the Shark hunt brings us full circle. His cutter has slowly become slower. Barely a cutter and more of a slutter from the get-go, it now quacks like a slider, walks like a slider and should just be called a slider.

These three graphs compare each of his three pitches to his fastballs from the same game. With one exception, the fastballs are four-seamers (click the image to enlarge). The timelines have been shifted so it's Day 0 for each pitch on the left. As shown above, they didn't actually overlap like this.

The speed and movement relationships between his sliders and fastballs of old look no different than those of his cutter and fastball of new. The gradual change in the cutter is interesting, as it began slowing down and sinking more, as opposed to the "new pitch" events that can be pinpointed in the past.

Now we've got a guy who rarely throws a sinker (despite early season flashes of it), has settled on a splitter for his offspeed pitch, and has gone full circle with the breaking pitch.

Finally, we can say Samardzija is a reliever with a fastball/slider/splitter instead of saying he is the Cubs' best third down option. Which is still true.

Mets Better Than They Look, Cubs Worse, Notes on Niese

2011-05-24T15:34:00.001-05:00

The Mets are in town as the Cubs return home from a 3-4 trip that sure seemed a lot worse than that. The North Siders are coming home without the services of Marlon Byrd for the foreseeable future, opening the door for Tyler Colvin's return ... but Hendry and company chose door number two, Lou Montanez.

The former first round pick joins Tony Campana and Reed Johnson, giving the Cubs three (below) replacement level outfielders. Sorry, but Colvin should have a spot. This is not a contending team, unless you count trying to stay closer to the Pirates than the Astros as a race of some kind.

Pending roster moves could include Matt Garza to the 15-day DL (to make room for Montanez on the 25-man roster) and Andrew Cashner to the 60-day DL (to make room for Montanez on the 40-man roster) (update: Brian Schlitter was moved to the 60-day instead...yes, he's a Cub again because his injury allowed the Yankees to reverse their waiver claim). Did I mention Jeff Baker's groin injury? The only remaining question seems to be will Bobby Scales bat lead-off or clean-up in June.

While the Cubs come apart on the field, the Mets are coming apart from the front office. They've actually played pretty well since a being 5-13 on April 20. So a 17-11 stretch (including two straight losses to the Yankees this weekend) should be the story as this team arrives from New York, not Fred Wilpon's musings.

Jonathon Niese gets game one for the Metropolitans. It will be career start 48 for the righty from Ohio. 2010 was his first full season in the majors for the ground ball pitcher. Niese started showing signs of missing bats (.2 whiff rate in 2010 was nearly league average) but has seemingly reverted to a pitch-to-contact guy (.16 whiff) with extreme ground ball tendencies (52% in 2010).

In "+" metrics (relative to a league average of 100), Niese's 2011 ground ball rate is 116. Equally impressive is his IWZ+ of 112 (he's in the wide zone roughly 58% of the time, three 'seasons' running).

The small shifts in pitch mix from 2010 to 2011 seem to corroborate the outcomes.

Once Every Century: Red Sox f/x Preview

2011-05-20T14:08:00.002-05:00

Interleague play, love it or hate it. Either way, might as well enjoy the Cubs visiting Fenway Park for the first time since the 1918 World Series. Saturday's game will feature throwback uniforms to mark the occasion.

The Red Sox are whittling down their pitching stock, resulting in spot starts for Alfredo Aceves on Saturday and ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on Sunday. Big Z will face Aceves in retro-togs and Matt Garza will offer primetime contrast to Wakefield's floater on Sunday night.

Friday's match-up is a bit of a reverse, with the Cubs reaching into pitching depth they didn't even have in March and Boston sending Jon Lester, who looks every bit the ace. An interesting twist and storyline emerges when you scan your memory for background on Lester and Doug Davis. Both are cancer survivors.

The Red Sox rotation isn't the only place where injuries have lurked. Wakefield and Aceves leave holes to go along with the DL-sized spots left by Bobby Jenks and Danny Wheeler. Hideki Okajima was designated for assignment on the eve of this series.

That's five relief pitchers out of seven somehow out of the bullpen. Closer Jonathan Papelbon and set-up man Daniel Bard remain and are joined by such luminaries as Matt Albers, Scott Atchison, and the now side-arming Rich Hill. Added to the roster in time for the series were Michael Bowden (called-up from the farm) and erstwhile Rockie Franklin Morales (acquired for cash and PTBNL).

Meet the starters. Wakefield throws a slow knuckleball, too, which is lumped in with the majority.

I haven't done full break-downs on the relievers, so Albers's sinkers and fastballs aren't split. Same for Bard and Morales (who throws two breaking pitches, also not split). Hill's sinkers and heaters are split apart, but the arm angles make it look a little strange. And there may be some two-seam sinkers in the side-arm mix that are still labeled four-seam. Wtvr.

The following numbers are a rate stat (whiffs per swing, pitches in wide zone per pitches thrown, ground balls per ball in play) converted to z-scores and then the scouting scale (50+10*z). Click to sort.

Pitcher	Whiff	IWZ	GB
Papelbon	63	47	42
Lester	54	47	57
Albers	46	31	58
Bard	59	52	54
Hill	50	53	39
Morales	47	46	44
Aceves	48	62	43
Atchison	42	49	51
Wakefield	46	59	40
Bowden	49	48	34

Volstad f/x

2011-05-19T08:18:00.000-05:00

The Cubs actually won. It contained ugly play, but Wednesday night in Florida ended up being a nice change of pace from the Ohio debacle.

Casey Coleman will match-up against fellow Floridian Chris Volstad in the second and final game of the series. Volstad, a former first round pick, will tower over Coleman in terms of height and stuff.

Volstad's most memorable moment in the Major Leagues came when he dodged a punch form Nyjer Morgan. It wasn't the dodge so much as the running clothesline delivered by Gaby Sanchez that was memorable. Especially for Morgan.

Volstad is a ground ball pitcher, and he's been throwing more sinkers (two-seam fastballs) and fewer heaters (four-seam fastballs) over time. A slider was added to the mix in 2010, bringing him to the standard five-pitch arsenal.

Peruse the numbers, a league relative version is below. And a some more charts.

Year	Type	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
2008	CH	114	83.8	.544	.290	.339	4.7	.439	.391	.205	.261	65%	22%	4%	8.7%	.0%
2008	CU	315	79.7	.378	.286	.361	1.7	.527	.282	.524	.262	69%	14%	14%	2.4%	.0%
2008	FA	410	91.1	.420	.116	.349	2.4	.551	.174	.305	.478	45%	17%	28%	9.8%	4.8%
2008	SI	451	91.1	.435	.138	.316	1.9	.494	.281	.422	.364	55%	19%	20%	6.5%	2.4%
2009	CH	413	84.3	.538	.351	.243	4.7	.380	.402	.238	.489	49%	17%	24%	10.0%	13.5%
2009	CU	489	79.9	.370	.249	.298	2.3	.487	.223	.480	.463	62%	13%	24%	.0%	6.5%
2009	FA	744	92.4	.410	.121	.416	1.6	.577	.238	.419	.603	40%	17%	35%	7.1%	14.9%
2009	SI	914	92.3	.428	.115	.432	2.3	.484	.263	.356	.667	54%	20%	23%	2.8%	14.3%
2010	CH	353	84.4	.482	.247	.300	4.8	.368	.345	.230	.403	53%	17%	25%	5.2%	3.1%
2010	CU	319	78.5	.436	.129	.331	2.7	.524	.230	.326	.413	56%	20%	21%	2.7%	3.2%
2010	FA	546	91.5	.408	.112	.457	1.7	.592	.211	.402	.542	26%	19%	48%	7.3%	7.8%
2010	SI	1093	91.6	.390	.092	.376	1.5	.566	.251	.448	.498	52%	20%	26%	2.6%	6.8%
2010	SL	407	84.9	.469	.257	.325	2.8	.464	.307	.317	.513	55%	11%	28%	6.3%	9.7%
2011	CH	89	84.5	.371	.273	.273	6.0	.315	.246	.381	.133	47%	7%	33%	13.3%	.0%
2011	CU	41	78.8	.439	.333	.222	2.3	.415	.292	.429	.250	50%	25%	25%	.0%	.0%
2011	FA	117	90.9	.410	.146	.458	2.0	.564	.235	.397	1.053	32%	26%	42%	.0%	23.1%
2011	SI	271	91.2	.387	.105	.305	1.7	.539	.208	.438	.565	55%	24%	21%	.0%	3.6%
2011	SL	132	84.4	.447	.322	.271	2.1	.470	.343	.404	.542	42%	17%	33%	8.3%	8.3%
ALL	CH	969	84.3	.503	.302	.277	4.9	.377	.364	.242	.405	52%	17%	23%	8.3%	7.4%
ALL	CU	1164	79.4	.393	.225	.322	2.2	.505	.243	.449	.396	61%	16%	21%	1.4%	3.8%
ALL	FA	1817	91.7	.412	.119	.416	1.8	.575	.215	.388	.578	37%	18%	37%	7.5%	10.9%
ALL	SI	2729	91.7	.410	.109	.378	1.8	.524	.256	.415	.532	53%	20%	23%	3.1%	8.0%
ALL	SL	539	84.8	.464	.272	.312	2.6	.466	.316	.338	.519	52%	13%	29%	6.7%	9.3%
ALL	ALL	7218	88.2	.424	.173	.358	2.1	.510	.268	.392	.505	50%	18%	27%	4.9%	8.4%
2008	ALL	1290	87.7	.426	.180	.339	2.1	.516	.261	.393	.379	55%	18%	20%	7.2%	3.0%
2009	ALL	2560	88.7	.429	.187	.368	2.2	.495	.277	.391	.582	50%	18%	27%	4.9%	13.2%
2010	ALL	2718	88.1	.423	.151	.366	2.0	.525	.267	.388	.483	49%	18%	29%	4.3%	6.5%
2011	ALL	650	88.1	.405	.198	.316	2.1	.491	.254	.418	.563	48%	21%	28%	3.1%	7.9%

Year	Type	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
2008	CH	114	101	108	98	116	131	100	116	79	56	133	122	15	132	0
2008	CU	315	104	97	102	114	81	114	102	113	53	138	74	56	41	0
2008	FA	410	99	98	71	81	141	98	77	84	90	125	81	82	104	67
2008	SI	451	100	101	116	83	100	91	117	114	74	106	100	83	148	36
2009	CH	413	102	107	118	83	131	87	119	92	104	100	94	92	152	185
2009	CU	489	104	95	89	94	110	105	81	103	94	124	68	96	0	90
2009	FA	744	100	96	74	96	94	103	105	116	113	111	81	103	76	207
2009	SI	914	101	100	97	114	121	89	109	96	135	104	105	96	64	213
2010	CH	353	102	96	83	103	133	84	102	89	86	108	94	96	79	42
2010	CU	319	102	112	46	104	129	113	83	70	84	112	105	84	47	44
2010	FA	546	99	95	68	106	100	106	93	111	101	72	90	141	78	108
2010	SI	1093	101	91	77	99	79	104	104	121	101	100	105	108	59	101
2010	SL	407	101	100	81	103	117	95	96	91	104	122	65	97	74	124
2011	CH	89	102	74	92	93	167	72	73	148	28	96	39	127	202	0
2011	CU	41	102	113	119	70	110	90	106	92	51	100	132	100	0	0
2011	FA	117	99	96	89	106	118	101	104	110	197	89	124	124	0	321
2011	SI	271	100	90	88	80	89	99	86	118	114	106	126	88	0	54
2011	SL	132	101	95	101	86	88	97	107	115	110	93	100	114	98	106
ALL	CH	969	102	100	102	95	136	86	108	94	87	106	94	88	126	101
ALL	CU	1164	103	101	80	101	105	109	88	97	81	122	84	84	24	53
ALL	FA	1817	99	96	73	96	106	103	95	107	108	103	86	109	80	151
ALL	SI	2729	101	96	92	99	95	97	106	112	107	102	105	96	70	119
ALL	SL	539	101	99	85	99	108	96	98	97	105	116	76	100	79	119
ALL	ALL	7218	100	96	83	96	100	98	100	110	100	111	95	93	66	118
2008	ALL	1290	100	96	86	91	100	99	98	110	75	122	95	69	97	42
2009	ALL	2560	101	97	89	99	105	95	104	110	115	111	95	93	66	186
2010	ALL	2718	100	95	72	98	95	101	100	109	96	109	95	100	58	92
2011	ALL	650	100	91	95	85	100	94	95	117	112	107	111	97	42	111

Please Find Some Mojo in Florida (Nolasco f/x)

2011-05-18T13:34:00.000-05:00

What a brutal stop in Cincinnati. The Cubs "embarrassed" Mike Quade on Monday, leading to a team meeting. Futility won over, as the Reds scored seven unearned runs in another cruddy loss.

Now it's off to Miami to face the Marlins, who are playing pretty good baseball. The Cubs will face Ricky Nolasco and Christopher Volstad and then head to Fenway for a three game weekend against the Red Sox.

In other words, things aren't getting easier. And Ryan Dempster (ex-Marlin) and Casey Coleman (Floridian) are targets of irrational, geography-driven expectations.

Nolasco has good stuff, a whole array of pitches. You can call his cutter a slider, his slider a curve, and his curve a slow curve. He throws a splitter and a fastball, along with a sinker and may be some straight changes along the way. I'll close my eyes and pretend he takes something of his fastball and walk away slowly.

The "sliders" that cap off the "curveballs" aren't always in the mix, 2011 being a season of just two "sliders" to date.

Did I mention he'll drop down to a lower arm slot? Extra fun.

Nolasco profiles as a swing-and-miss guy with fly ball tendencies. 2011, however, has seen a pick-up in his ground balls rate.

100+ SCALE (proportion of league average)

Season	Pitch	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
2008	ALL	3137	98	108	105	102	76	112	113	102	103	87	100	103	147	128
2009	ALL	3024	99	106	111	107	90	104	115	97	115	87	116	114	82	113
2010	ALL	2336	99	107	111	98	76	102	118	96	120	87	111	110	112	132
2011	ALL	715	98	108	112	88	86	97	141	114	105	102	111	103	46	113
ALL	ALL	9212	99	107	109	102	81	106	118	100	111	89	111	107	109	123

As usual, Nolasco isn't walking many guys, but he's going out of the zone (IWZ) more often while fooling batters in and out of the zone more often (Watch and Chase, respectively). Put it all together, and Nolasco is looking as effective as he was two or three years ago.

Garza and Volquez Rematch, Scott Maine Recalled

2011-05-17T16:27:00.000-05:00

The Reds and Cubs will send out the same pitchers they used against each other on May 6 in Wrigley Field. Matt Garza was on the wrong end of things against Edinson Volquez while defending his home field. So Volquez will be looking to do the same as his team and sweep a foe in a two-game set. Yea, false drama.

The Cubs made a few roster moves, sending Tyler Colvin and Marcos Mateo to Iowa and calling-up Scott Maine and Tony Campana. Maine was with the Cubs briefly in 2010 (93 mph fastball, 85 mph change, 80 mph curve) and adds a left-handed option to the bullpen.

Garza and Volquez Pitch Selections

Volquez v Cubs 5/6/11	#	Fastball	Sinker	Change	Curve
Aramis Ramirez	6	50%	17%	33%	0%
Alfonso Soriano	13	8%	23%	38%	31%
Carlos Pena	14	64%	0%	36%	0%
Marlon Byrd	11	36%	27%	18%	18%
Geovany Soto	10	20%	10%	40%	30%
Darwin Barney	13	31%	23%	15%	31%
Matt Garza	4	50%	0%	0%	50%
Kosuke Fukudome	11	64%	0%	27%	9%
Starlin Castro	16	50%	6%	31%	13%

Garza v Reds 5/6/11	#	Fastball	Sinker	Change	Curve	Slider
Edgar Renteria	11	9%	36%	0%	18%	36%
Ramon Hernandez	9	33%	22%	11%	22%	11%
Brandon Phillips	10	30%	10%	10%	20%	30%
Jonny Gomes	13	38%	23%	23%	0%	15%
Edinson Volquez	5	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Drew Stubbs	8	63%	0%	0%	38%	0%
Jay Bruce	9	22%	11%	0%	33%	33%
Paul Janish	9	33%	22%	0%	0%	44%
Joey Votto	12	50%	17%	17%	8%	8%

Double Dip Road Trip Opener

2011-05-16T15:15:00.000-05:00

Following a split it what turned into a 1.67 game series against the Giants, the Cubs are starting another short series tonight This two game set is as-scheduled against the Reds in Cincinnati. Same plan in Florida, two games and out the door. From there it's off to Fenway for interleague play.

Carlos Zambrano's tilt with Tim Lincecum was washed-out, moving Big Z into tonight's match-up with Homer Bailey. Bailey is making his third start of the season, coming off the DL to join the rotation in May. The Cubs will look to change the lanky Texan's fortunes.

Bailey's two starts were outstanding, totaling 13 innings with 12 strike outs and just one walk. Opponents have managed just one run on nine hits over the two starts. He's also thrown a ton of sliders in the process.

The differences in Bailey's pitch mix over this two games and his total PITCHf/x history is easy to see (pitch classifications are my own).

The sliders have been plentiful and effective. The 515 Bailey threw before 2011 yielded a whiff rate of .23 -- a big jump, from a league relative "+" rate of 72 all the way to 125. That's where league average is 100 and each point away if 1% of the average above or below average. If you prefer the scouting scale and z-scores, where 50 is average and 10 points is one standard deviation, he went from 40 to 60 whiff.

So, replace your pitches-to-contact template with a bat-misser template before watching tonight's game.