Cubs f/x

Cubs First Cuts of Camp

2010-03-14T11:05:00.004-05:00

Carrie Muskat, Cubs.com beat reporter, just had this update via Twitter:

[C]ubs trim nine on Sunday; Atkins, Patton optioned. Clevenger, Lalli, Kennard, Vitters, Camp, Jackson and Perkins assigned to Minors

They'll still be around in Spring Training, especially in road and split-squad games.

Arm Check: Cactus f/x

2010-03-11T18:50:00.007-06:00

The Cubs hit the road from Mesa to Peoria today, facing the Padres at the Peoria Sports Complex. Along with Surprise, Peoria is home to one of the PITCHf/x installations that first came online during the Arizona Fall League. What a perfect chance to see how some Cubs arms are shaping-up in camp.

David Patton

Patton is destined for AA Tennessee in 2010. He survived Rule 5 status with an even balance of shorting the Cubs bullpen and rehab time for a strained groin.

What we saw in 2009 was a young, short-arming pitcher with decent stuff. Very rough, but he may have some upside. Or we may never see much of him again. Patton's outing on Thursday was interesting from a stuff perspective -- we saw nothing but two-seam fastballs and a few of his curveballs.

While Patton did use the sinking fastball a bit in 2009, it was just 78 of his 300 total fastballs thrown. So, the focus on that pitch today is very telling -- he's looking for weaker contact. His stuff is about 4-6 MPH off full-speed, with his sinkers just under 87 mph (compared to 92.5 last year) and his curves around 75 (79 last year).

Esmailin Caridad

Well, Mr. Caridad. Angel Guzman's bad fortune may be your big break. Caridad looks headed towards later innings than expected, barring a move by Trader Jim. Caridad is a little stronger at this point than Patton, just about 2 mph off his 93+ average fastball from 2009. He did crack 94 a couple of times, so he's not far from his 95 that makes me so giddy. He threw a couple of his slow slurvey sliders, one sinker but no change-ups. Of the nearly 300 pitches he threw in the majors in 2009, only six were change-ups, so the lack of those today is no surprise.

The big takeaway from Cardidad's day is he warmed up twice. Finishing off the 8th for a struggling Jeff Stevens (see below), Caridad struggled himself in the ninth. Still, his two fastest pitches (94.6) both came in the ninth, and one was his penultimate offering of the game. Looks like he's rounding into shape nicely. Keep in mind, he broke 95 mph 39 times last year, 97 seven times, including his top pitch of 98.2 mph.

Carlos Silva

Talking about round shapes .... sorry, I'm miffed that Silva showed up to camp out of shape. However, since then, he's been doing and saying the right things. He seems fairly humbled and willing to be a student. He's also modified his delivery (thank you Larry) and had a much better outing against the Padres than his miserable debut against the White Sox.

Silva hasn't touched 92 mph yet, but I have a sneaky feeling he may be getting back some lost velocity. Silva's sinker went from an average speed just over 92 mph in 2007 down under 91 mph each of his two seasons in Seattle. Averaging just under 90 today, he's already closing in on his 2009 version of full strength. His splitter is already full speed.

Unless I'm just being overly optimistic, he may be stronger than his physique suggests. If he can make 20-something starts, and have that sinker working, he will be a Jason Marquis-esque fifth starter, which is not a bad thing at all.

Carlos Marmol

The Rubberband Man is almost full strength. He ripped one fastball of at 96.4, so he hasn't reached his peak of 97.5 to 98.5 yet. But he's getting close. It's just one game, but these numbers are pretty funny -- Marmol's average fastball speed by year:

Six fastballs don't get into stamina testing land, but it's nice to know he's coming out of the box at full strength. If nothing else, two of the Cubs young late inning power arms are already showing plenty of power. Control? Oh well, that's for another day.

J.R. Mathes

Finally, some PITCHf/x on J.R. Mathes! And I'm just a nonplussed as I suspected I would be. Just a handful of fastballs (three of which I believe were two-seam sinkers), 84 to 86 mph. It's hard to say what that means on March 11, given the lack of prior PITCHf/x on Mathes. He has always been a ground ball pitcher, and he's left-handed, so he's got that going for him.

Vince Perkins

Last I saw Perkins (in PITCHf/x), he was working at full strength in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. The Canadian journeyman averaged 93 mph with his sinker then, but was just around 89+ on Thursday.

Perkins is another ground ball pitcher, even more than Mathes, but makes things way to hard for himself by walking guys. Sure, ground ball pitchers can get away with that, but he has a sketchy K:BB ratio in the minors, well, enough said. And that he's 28 and just made it to AAA during the 2009 season.

Jeff Stevens

Stevens struggled in his Major League debut in 2009, after putting up a long string of deceptively good ERAs as a reliever in the minors. He struggles with walks, and that showed as a Cub. Stevens has reasonably good stuff, with a 93 mph fastball (not quite 90 on average on Thursday) and a very pure 12-6 curveball.

What looked like a cutter in 2009 looks more like a slider now, possibly due to the low velocity (79, as opposed to 84 last year). He did throw some similar pitches in 2009, slow and slider-like, but, with his overhand delivery I'm not sure they're really different pitches, then or now. We'll see what that pitch looks like as he builds up strength -- right now he seems to be in Patton's situation, and not up the pace Marmol and Caridad look to be setting.

Summing it Up

Despite some uneven performances, I'm finding some good signs in the PITCHf/x data from this single Spring game. Marmol and Caridad look strong. Silva may actually be in pitching shape sooner than later/never. Stevens and Patton aren't that strong yet, and were both having trouble throwing strikes. Perkins and Mathes probably have Break Glass in Case of Emergency written on them.

Things to Read

2010-03-04T10:19:00.004-06:00

First Spring game for the Cubs is today! It's been a busy off-season, even if this space wasn't filled very much. If you're so inclined, you can check out some other stuff that I've contributed to. Yes, this post is almost 100% shameless self-promotion.

Amazin' Avenue's 2010 Mets Annual (link) covers our mortal enemy (and my favorite team in the 80s, yes, I am a convert and confused). I covered some of the new arms acquired by the Mets this winter, along with a look at their top hitting prospects. Other contributors include Dave Studeman, Matthew Cerrone, Tommy Bennett and many others that you may already know. It's about 300 pages of PDF (available on Kindle and in print, too) goodness. Kudos to Eric Simon for putting it together (and giving me absurdly generous deadlines).

THT Forecasts (link) is a revised format for the book that The Hardball Times has published in the past. Instead of doing a 2010 Preview book, THT has put it all online, and it's even better.

Oliver projections for the next six years for over 7,000 major and minor league players. These projections include hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics (the latter based on Brian Cartwright’s own play-by-play system), wins above replacement (WAR) projections, and coming soon, base running as well. You can read more about Oliver here.
Raw statistics for the past three years, including all the statistical categories listed above.
Major league equivalencies (MLEs) for the past three seasons, so you can see not just a player’s raw past statistics, but also how his numbers look adjusted for context.
Depth chart projections to tell you just how much of an impact a player will make at the major league level this season.
Over 1,300 player comments (and counting) from the best team bloggers on the internet, to give you a more subjective look at just about every player that matters.
And all of the above, updated each and every week, from now until October.
Plus, many more features, such as projected standings and personal player watch lists, with more to come very soon.

The comments on the Cubs players are from yours truly.

Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual 2010 (link) is available online and at newsstands now. My contribution is a chapter about Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. It covers everything from Cy Young voting to HITf/x.

Blogs: if this place seems desolate, you may be able to find me in one of these places:
Hardball Times where I run a weekly piece on Tuesday mornings, and, as of last night, the occasional hit to THT Live.
Baseball Daily Digest where I'll be posting at least once a week
Beyond the Box Score where you can find my weekly New Arms piece, starting back up again very soon

Is Andrew Cashner a Ground Ball Pitcher?

2010-03-02T17:49:00.003-06:00

I keep reading about Andrew Cashner being a ground ball pitcher. In the sense that every pro pitcher is a ground ball pitcher, it is true. He's been just average at each professional level, for the league (non age-adjusted).

For each stop on the way to where ever he ends up in 2010, here's how Mr. Cashner fared in terms of actual ground ball rate and league adjusted (100 being average, each point above or below is 1% above or below average, a la OPS+).

2008

GCL Cubs (Gulf Coast League, Rookie)
Batters Faced: 4
GB%: 0%
GB+: 0

Boise Hawks (Northwest League, Short Season A)
Batters Faced: 85
GB%: 49%
GB+: 97

Daytona Cubs (Florida State League, Advanced A)
Batters Faced: 39
GB%: 53%
GB+: 112

2009

Cactus League Cubs (Spring Training)
Batters Faced: 5
GB%: 50%
GB+: 112

Daytona Cubs (Florida State League, Advanced A)
Batters Faced: 171
GB%: 49%
GB+: 104

Tennessee Smokies (Southern League, Double A)
Batters Faced: 277
GB%: 49%
GB+: 107

Mesa Solar Sox (Arizona Fall Leauge)
Batters Faced: 85
GB%: 45%
GB+: 99

Grand Total
Batters Faced: 666
GB%: 48%
GB+: 104

OK, so he is above average so far. Barely. But can we stop calling him a ground ball pitcher?

Getting to Know Kiko Calero - Just in Case

2010-01-21T00:06:00.000-06:00

Hendry and Lou want to round out the bullpen with a veteran set-up guy. Kiko Calero, despite having some shoulder issues, is a possibility. His success seems, in part, to come from an ability to avoid the long ball. Of more interest is a strange pitch he occasionally throws.

Calero has a verrrry slow "slider" and a more conventional one, which is somewhere in between Carlos Marmol and Esmailin Caridad in terms of speed and sweep/snap, but with less sink on average. Let's call it a slurve, and I'll just use the plain slider to refer to the slow poke.

What the heck is that?

I had to check some literature on Mr. Calero when I found these slow sliders, leaping out of my PITCHf/x graphs. This is from the Neyer/James web extras from their book on pitchers:

Kiko Calero (2003 2007)
Report: "RHP Kiko Calero relies heavily on a slider he throws at two different speeds, which gives it two kinds of breaks -- one hard and one [sic] sharp and the other more looping. Calero, a reliever, throws one of his sliders on more than half of his pitches overall and on about three-fourths of them when he has two strikes on a hitter. If he gets ahead in the count, the at-bat is all but over."
Source: The Sporting News (8/11/2006, Mychael Urban)

How slow? 50 to 65 mph, that's how slow. But he barely throws it. Of the 11 I found, they could all be data errors, but they're too frequent (yet spread out over years) to dismiss out of hand. I will, however, mostly ignore them and his rarely thrown third pitch, a change-up.

The more conventional slider (or sliders?) has been his choice 52% of pitches since the end of 2006, but more like 66% with two strikes.

Time traveler

Calero's PITCHf/x trail goes back to October 2006 when he was with the A's. He happened to be in front of one of the first PITCHf/x installations -- Minnesota -- for the 2006 ALDS. Before arriving in Oakland, and eventually the post-season, Calero was a Cardinal. Most recently, a Marlin after a stop in Texas on a minor league contract. He spent most of 2008 in the Rangers' farm system. so most of the PITCHf/x data for Calero will come from Florida and his 2007 with the A's. Gameday has more complete coverage, but I'll be sticking to the last three years, and just his time in the Majors.

Calero's stuff isn't overwhelming, although his slurve looks nice. His fastball averages around 89 mph, his slurve 80, his "slow slider" averages 59, and the change-up around 84. That change may be nothing more than a slightly throttled two-seamer, a la Randy Johnson.

Yes, I just compared Kiko to Big Unit. So far, he's a mix of Johnson, Marmol and Caridad. I've gone off the rails.

First impressions and a trip to the park

Here are two things I like about Kiko Calero.

His name is Kiko Calero

He has whiff rate is .291 since 2007 (avg. is .206)

And some that I don't

He's not a strike thrower -- .459 in the zone rate (avg. is .520)

His fly ball rate is high -- .375 (avg. is .291)

Despite the fly ball tendencies, his home run rates are low -- just 0.3 per 9 IP since 2007. He's not a ground ball pitcher, and his line drive rate (.178) is just better than average (.194) since 2007. How does he do it? He doesn't fit the profile of a pitcher who can keep home run rates down -- is it all luck and/or park factors?

Part of it is ballparks, although he hasn't been tagged on the road in a couple years. Some of it is small sample sizes, although he's been tough to take deep since 2006. His career HR/9IP is 0.7, so it wasn't a major issue for Calero at any point in his career, from what I can tell.

Last note on the parks: since 2007 and in terms of home runs, Oakland has been a pitcher's park, Florida a hitter's park -- despite the dimensions.

At the plate and in the air

Pitch location can help keep home runs down. Take a look at Calero's pitch location on fly balls (including home runs, all two of them) in PITCHf/x from 2007.

In the first pane, you can see the consistent outter-half placement of fastballs, sliders and a few changes against lefties on pitches that resulted in fly balls. In the middle pane, you can see the slider away against righties, but more pitches over the inner half (fastballs) and no change-ups. The last pane shows the two home runs PITCHf/x has (it's missing one). A rare slider down and middle-in to a lefty and a fastball up and middle-in to a righty. Both notoriously dangerous locations.

If you check out Dave Allen's home runs by pitch location maps, you'll see how safe a play that down and away slider is against righties, and how dangerously located the two gopher balls were.

Where it flew

Keeping the ball away from lefties worked out very well. Of the 32 fly balls Calero gave up when facing a left-handed hitter, 6 were pulled, 14 hit to center and 12 the other way. He was 22, 29, 22 against righties. These are based on the fielder who played the ball, not the location of a ball in play, but the approximate location it cleared the wall (left- and right-center home runs count as center) according to Gameday's descriptions.

Let's see that again as a rate, and compare to Marmol and Aaron Heilman for kicks. Calero, or whomever, will be replacing Heilman essentially.


                 Pull    Center   Opposite
Calero v LHH     .19       .43      .38
Marmol v LHH     .46       .40      .14
Heilman v LHH    .29       .46      .25

Some small samples, but Calero beats Heilman, and they both stomp Marmol. Rubberband Man is actually a little scary in this picture.


                 Pull    Center   Opposite
Calero v RHH     .30       .40      .30
Marmol v RHH     .26       .29      .45
Heilman v RHH    .28       .36      .36

Here Calero is actually the poorest of the bunch, Marmol the best.

Gratuitous graphic

Last, here's a look at Calero's fastball and slurve in flight:

Compare that with sliders from Marmol, Jake Peavy and more as well as Caridad.

Numbers Support Maddux Plan

2010-01-14T15:01:00.004-06:00

Greg Maddux is the newest member of the Cubs' front office. Old 31 plans on making at least one significant change to the organization, according Rick Sutcliffe, via this TCR tweet.

Sutcliffe on XM said he's hearing that with the hire of Maddux, Cubs plan to push for minors to learn how to pitch deep into games

Well, Maddog, good call. The Cubs' minor league starters rank dead last in making it to the sixth inning.

Going back to 2007, I found the rate at which each team in minors (those leagues the Cubs participate in, from short season A on up) worked their starters past the fifth inning. The results speak for themselves.

% of starts where starter went beyond 5th inning (2007-2009)
Pacific Coast (AAA)

     
Tacoma            62%
Salt Lake         61%
Round Rock        60%
Memphis           60%
Las Vegas         59%
New Orleans       57%
Fresno            57%
Oklahoma City     57%
Nashville         57%
Colorado Springs  57%
Portland          56%
Albuquerque       55%
Sacremento        55%
Reno              53%
Omaha             48%
Iowa              47%

Southern (AA)


Birmingham        65%
Mobile            63%
West Tennessee    59%
Mobile            58%
Huntsville        56%
Montgomery        54%
Carolina          53%
Chattanooga       52%
Jacksonville      51%
Tennessee         44%

Florida State (A+)


Clearwater        62%
Fort Meyers       56%
Jupiter           54%
Dunedin           53%
Sarasota          49%
Lakeland          49%
Charlotte         48%
Tampa             47%
St.  Lucie        46%
Brevard County    41%
Palm Beach        40%
Daytona Beach     25%

Midwest (A)


Cedar Rapids      63%
Beloit            55%
West Michigan     53%
Kane County       49%
Clinton           46%
South Bend        45%
Dayton            44%
Burlington        43%
Lansing           42%
Wisconsin         41%
Great Lakes       38%
Fort Wayne        31%
Quad Cities       31%
Peoria            20%

Northwest (As)


Everett           38%
Yakima            32%
Salem-Keizer      29%
Vancouver         26%
Tri-City          24%
Eugene            24%
Spokane           18%
Boise              4%

No, it's not your imagination. The Cubs' affiliates rank dead last in each league, and it is extreme in the lower levels.

Nowhere to go but up—good call, Professor.

Cubs Campers - 29 Pitchers (So Far)

2010-01-13T11:49:00.002-06:00

As we sit about one month from that magical day (Pitchers and Catchers Report), it's time to take stock of the Cubs' pitching roster. Al just posted a list of non-roster invitees at BCB, which includes seven pitchers. Adding in a Rule 5 pick, a couple trade acquisitions and the rest of the 40-man roster, the Cubs will have 29 pitchers in the big league camp in February.

Over the next couple weeks I'll be covering each group listed below (with some mixing and matching, groupings subject to change), along with any new additions and Hendry trolls the markets. Check back here for a list'o'links as I create the posts.

Camp Fodder (NRI)
J.R. Mathes
James Russell
Andrew Cashner
Casey Coleman
Thomas Diamond
Jeff Kennard*
Vince Perkins

Newbies
Mike Parisi
Carlos Silva
Jeff Gray

Various Kids
Mitch Atkins
Rafael Dolis
John Gaub
Marcos Mateo
Blake Parker
David Patton
Jeff Stevens

Kids with Expectations
Justin Berg
Esmailin Caridad
Jeff Samardzija

Lefties in Limbo
Tom Gorzelanny
Sean Marshall

The Locks
Ryan Dempster
John Grabow
Angel Guzman
Ted Lilly
Carlos Marmol
Randy Wells
Carlos Zambrano

*Kennard was recently signed minor-league free agent

Carlos Silva to the Cubs - Baggage Included

2009-12-18T17:00:00.002-06:00

It finally happened. The Cubs, painted into their own corner, traded Milton Bradley. The Cubs' best projection batter for 2010 moves to Seattle. Coming back are none other than Carlos Silva, and what I understand amounts to $6 million in payroll flexibility over 2010 and 2011.

Even with the cash back, we're talking nearly $20 million for a pitcher best suited, at this point, for middle relief. Against right-handed hitters, preferably.

A Brief and Recent History

Let's take a stroll down Carlos Silva Memory Lane

8/9/2008

The wall of silence that has so often surrounded happenings inside the Mariners' clubhouse was finally shattered on Friday night by the frustrated voice of Carlos Silva.

His anger evident, fresh off a listless, 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the pitcher more or less accused some teammates of mailing it in and trying to pad their statistics. Silva said the selfish play of some Mariners lately has been making the entire starting rotation look bad, and he's had enough.

8/9/2008

Mariners manager Jim Riggleman said he was "very disappointed" with some of the comments right-handed pitcher Carlos Silva made Friday night during a postgame media session, and would address them during a meeting with the pitcher.
"A couple of things I read didn't make any sense," Riggleman said on Saturday. "It was very strange to me. Convoluted."

8/16/2008

Carlos Silva was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with what the Seattle Mariners called tendinitis in his elbow....Silva declined to comment, as he did on Friday night.

3/21/2009

Venezuelan manager Luis Sojo was approached by several reporters individually on Saturday before his team's 10-2 semifinal loss to Korea.
Each had the same question.

"So why are you starting Carlos Silva instead of Felix Hernandez?" each reporter asked.

Sojo smiled and responded each time, "He's been my best pitcher."
...
"This is his riskiest move of the tournament," one Venezuelan reporter had said.

Sojo's decision immediately flopped...When the inning ended, Silva walked to the dugout and threw his glove against the wall in frustration. Less than an inning later, Silva was knocked out... This time, Silva walked to the dugout and did not shake the few hands of teammates who offered their support. He simply walked into the clubhouse and disappeared.

3/28/2009

Right-hander Carlos Silva insisted on Saturday afternoon that everything from his neck down is pretty much ready for the regular season to begin.

The mental part of his game needs some work.
...
Silva said his bullpen sessions between and before his starts go well. But for some reason he has been unable to carry that success into a game. He ends up trying to do too much, throws too hard, and when power doesn't work, he backs off and uses finesse. That hasn't worked any better.

To say he's befuddled barely touches the surface.

4/15/2009

"The crowd is very important," he said. "I respect the crowd 100 percent. But it's one thing I've got to take out of my mind. I've got to pitch. I don't have to worry about crowds, I don't have to worry about anything. That's one of my biggest problems. I worry too much about the outside stuff."

Silva was asked whether anybody from the team has tried to talk to him about blocking out external factors.

"There are a lot of people talking to me, man," he said, bursting into laughter. "[Monday, manager Don] Wakamatsu talked to me a little bit, [pitching coach] Rick [Adair] talked to me, the mental [coach] guy talked to me."

5/6/2009

Silva has put too much pressure on himself. All of that criticism last year? The fans going at his weight, his pitching, his attitude? It's caught up to him. The media blasting him regularly? That's caught up to him as well. He's a mess. I wasn't sure about him last year, but having gotten to see him in action behind the scenes, I can tell you, he's one guy who takes this whole contract thing to heart. He's not running off, laughing at the Mariners for having paid him $48 million. He's losing sleep over it every night. He's tearing himself apart internally trying to make things right. Trying to please teammates he feels he's disappointing on a daily basis.

You can hear it in his voice, See it in his face, He's a rich man because of that contract. But he's not having a fun time. The pressure he's putting on himself, I think -- and so do many team officials -- is making him a worse pitcher than he truly is. And at this stage, as with any high pressure situation in life, it's sometimes good to take a step back. To absorb the situation going on in front of you.

5/20/2009

An MRI done on Carlos Silva on Tuesday revealed an impingement in his right shoulder. The MRI also showed fraying of both the labrum and rotator cuff.

Yadda yadda yadda, now he's a Cub. Aren't you glad the Cubs traded away the clubhouse, media and fan problem? I think there's an old adage about not trading your bag of problems for someone else's. Someone else's problems and six million bucks maybe not be covered.

I'll share some PITCHf/x data on Silva later. Short story: sinker/slider/change.

An Interview with Mike Parisi - Cubs Rule 5 Pick

2009-12-10T11:19:00.003-06:00

In this morning's Rule 5 draft, the Cubs selected right-hander Mike Parisi from the St. Louis Cardinals. Mike is back from Tommy John surgery and had an impressive run in the Arizona Fall League.

I was fortunate enough to get a few minutes of Mike's time on the phone this morning to get his reaction. We also talked about his stuff. Here is a rough transcript/notes from our conversation.

Questions in bold, answers in quotes/plain text, my comments in italics

Parisi got a call from his agent and a text from the Cardinals with the news. Knowing he was exposed to today's draft, the news was not a surprise altogether, but very exciting in the details. He used the word "pumped" at least once to describe the feeling.

Congratulations. How does it feel to be picked by the Cubs and being given a shot to make the rotation?

"Feels amazing. Rule 5 is very tricky, like the regular draft. You never really know what's going to happen."

What do you know about Lou and Larry? Or any coaches/players in the Chicago organization?

"I don't know any of them, I just know of them. I'm excited to start working and hopefully impress them."

Parisi had good success in the AFL with a cutter. It was a pitch I thought he added after his surgery, but it actually goes back to when the Cardinals sent him down, prior to the elbow injury.

You've started throwing a cutter. Along with it, more ground balls. What led you to this pitch, and where are you going with it?

"In 2008 Tony LaRussa sent me to Dave Duncan. He said I needed to add a cutter or slider to go with my two-seamer, something I could throw for strikes. He was 100% right."

Parisi started using the cutter in the Minors, but didn't get far before he was hurt. He picked it right back up upon his return.

"During rehab in Palm Peach, I worked hard at it for two weeks. I threw it in the Gulf Coast League, got some guys out with it."

Mike took the pitch with him to the AFL, and it had a big impact on his approach

"I'm not throwing as many curveballs. But the cutter has opened up the rest of my pitches, so, yes, it's definitely had an impact."

We talked a bit about his fastballs. Parisi's main pitch is his two-seamer, but he did confirm that he throws a few four-seamers

From looking at your PITCHf/x data, your two-seam fastball looks like a tailer more than I sinker. Is that accurate?

"Definitely more of a tailer. If I get it down in the zone, more of a pitcher's pitch, it gets more sink. Normally it fades into a righty. That isn't bad now that I have the cutter. I can run it in on their hands and run the cutter the other way, at similar speeds."

Are you trying to add speed to the cutter?

"I guess I am a little"

I'll have to paraphrase the rest of this answer - the idea of adding speed is to have the option to straighten it out a little. Parisi likes to be able to work the pitch from small cutter to big cutter to small slider. Sounds like a slutter to me.

Looking at PITCHf/x it appears your arm slot my lower with your off-speed and breaking stuff. Is that true?

"Yes. It's not something I try to do, it's something that happens. I try to get on top of the fastballs as much as I can. I don't know if you can really tell with a naked eye. You're the first person to ever bring that up in six years of professional ball."

Good luck to Mike Parisi, and thanks for being the first Cubs f/x interviewee.

You can read a little more about Parisi in my brief Rule 5 preview at The Hardball Times.

Updating the Cubs' Center Field Picture

2009-12-09T22:24:00.003-06:00

Just a few days ago I took a look at some in-house and outside candidates for the Cubs' center field job. With Curtis Granderson going to the Yankees, things have already shifted to the second tier. More changes could come Thursday morning (by the time you read this, actually), as the Cubs could lose or gain relevant pieces in the Rule 5 draft.

Two more names to consider, not that I want to. Scott Podsednik and Melky Cabrera. Cabrera could be available now that New York has Granderson, and Podsednik just won't go away.

CHONE gives Podsednik a -10 for batting runs in 2010, Jeff Zimmerman's UZR150 projections a -3 on defense. CHONE also has defensive projections now, and TotalZone disagrees with UZR, giving Pods a +4.

Melky gets a +6 from CHONE for batting and a -3 from UZR. TotalZone comes up with a -1 projection for Cabrera.

Put it all together, with your grains of salt, and here's where things sorta stand.


Acceptable  Cabrera, Byrd, Cameron, Crisp 
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel, Podsednik
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Me thinks Melky is now the Cubs' best option, amongst those I've considered so far. Be sure to check out the first post for links and more details.

Soft in the Middle: Center Field Options for the 2010 Cubs

2009-12-05T12:40:00.001-06:00

Update: check out part two

Let's just assume Milton Bradley officially vacates right field, handing the spot back to Kosuke Fukudome. Reed Johnson, as we already know, hasn't been offered arbitration. This leaves center field open for the 2010 Cubs.

Counting out Fukudome and Johnson, the Cubs are left with two returning center fielders from 2009 -- Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin. The glut of rumors around center fielders coming to Chicago, by trade or free agency, should be no surprise.

Including the two returning options, there are a few center fielders in the Cubs' system and the trade and free agent markets.

Returning	Minors	Free Agents	Trade Mentions
Tyler Colvin	James Adduci	Rick Ankiel	Curtis Granderson
Sam Fuld	Matt Camp	Marlon Byrd	Aaron Rowand
	Brandon Guyer	Mike Cameron
	Brett Jackson	Coco Crisp

There are other outfielders who have played center for a Cubs minor league affiliate, including Tony Campana (who played the position regularly in Daytona), but none worth mentioning. Including Tony Campana.

Hitting Projections

These r150 values are from CHONE. Here's Sean's explanation of the stat

The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in.


Colvin      -18
Fuld        - 7

Adduci      -25
Camp        -28
Guyer       -27
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      - 8
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 5
Crisp       - 3

Granderson   13
Rowand      - 9

Let's group those another way. As a rule of thumb, 10 runs equals 1 win.


>  1 win  Granderson

>  0 win  Byrd

<  0 win  Crisp, Cameron, Fuld, Ankiel

< -1 win  Colvin, Jackson (being generous here)

< -2 win  Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Taking CHONE at face, it's about a one win gap from Granderson to Byrd. From there, it's a smaller step, but close to a win, to the next group. It's another win down to Colvin and Jackson, and yet another down to Adduci, Camp and Guyer. But we haven't considered defense yet.

Roaming Center Pasture

Starting with the players with sufficient MLB service time (Fuld barely), we can apply Jeff Zimmerman's uzr150 projections (age adjusted). Similar to the r150 for batting runs, this reflects the approximate number of runs saved (positive) or allowed (negative) compared to the average center fielder.


Cameron       4
Crisp         4
Granderson    1
Byrd          0
Rowand        0
Ankiel      - 5
Fuld        - 5

With just 162 innings of big league time in center, Fuld's projection should be taken with a grain of salt.

Where does this put our run totals so far?


Colvin      ???
Fuld        -12

Adduci      ???
Camp        ???
Guyer       ???
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      -13
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 1
Crisp         1

Granderson   14
Rowand      - 9

Granderson still stands alone, while Byrd, Cameron and Crisp bunch closer together. Fuld and Ankiel fade away with Rowand.


Awesome     Granderson
Acceptable  Byrd, Cameron, Crisp
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Camp's defense is well regarded (he also plays shortstop), but he's not Willie Mays. Based on what little I know about Colvin and Jackson's defense, they're probably closer to Please No than Not Likely.

If I'm Jim Hendry

The Cubs have to go outside the organization. Rowand or Ankiel would be an utter waste, Byrd, Cameron or Crisp fine for a year at a good price. Granderson is appealing, but the cost (in terms of young talent) is probably prohibitive.

2010 Cubs Rookie Bullpen Candidates

2009-12-04T21:00:00.001-06:00

The 2010 Cubs don't look to have too many set spots in their bullpen. Assuming guys like Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija are considered starters first, you're left with Carlos Marmol, John Grabow and Angel Guzman as returning veterans (of sorts). Neal Cotts hopes to come back from Tommy John surgery, but don't hold your breath. I'm not counting David Patton, who lost his rookie status on service time, not innings.

With Ted Lilly's season starting late and Rich Harden's elsewhere, it's likely only one of Marshall/Gorzelanny/Samardzija trio will fall into the bullpen. That leaves two to four spots open for Gcompetition.

This creates opportunities, or renews them, for a variety of young pitchers. It also makes your eyes wander to the trade and free agent market. We'll stick to the first group today.

Gang of Eight

I've selected eight rookie pitchers that all have a shot at a bullpen spot. All but James Russell occupy a spot on the Cubs' 40-man roster, and each has some PITCHf/x coverage (either in MLB or AFL play). This is by no means an exhaustive list of candidates. Just a group that lends itself to digital scouting. It includes Jeff Gray, recently acquired from Oakland and still under the rookie limits for innings and service time (by my reckoning).

Introductions are in order, and include 2010 seasonal age, height/weight, total Major League innings pitched (or highest level pitched), number of pitches available in PITCHf/x and their projected 2010 ERA from CHONE. Age etc. taken from Cubs.com. Six are right-handed, Russell and Gaub are southpaws.

Pitcher	2010 Age	H/W	MLB IP	PITCHf/x	CHONE
Jeff Gray	28	6'3"/190	31.0	477	4.64
Esmailin Caridad	26	5'10"/195	19.1	285	5.47*
Jeff Stevens	26	6'2"/205	12.2	234	4.13
Justin Berg	26	6'3"/230	12.0	133	4.85
Mitch Atkins	24	6'3"/230	2.0	21	5.96*
Blake Parker	25	6'3"/225	AAA	67	4.62
James Russell	24	6'4"/205	AAA	39	6.05*
John Gaub	25	6'2"/200	AAA	26	4.50

CHONE projects Caridad, Russell and Atkins as starters, so knock a run off their projected ERA in your mind.

Speed and Strikes

Let's start with something simple - average fastball speed. Lumping two- and four-seam fastballs together, here's what you get -- fastest to slowest.

Average Fastball Speed (mph)
Gray     95
Caridad  93
Parker   93
Gaub     92
Berg     92
Stevens  92
Russell  91
Atkins   90

Keep in mind the small samples, especially for Atkins, Gaub and Russell. Parker is short, too, but not quite as egregiously as those three.

The ability to throw strikes will be big factor in any bullpen decision, especially with younger pitchers. Nothing Lou hates mores than rookies who walk guys. And Scott Eyre. And Chad Gaudin.

In Wide Zone (IWZ) measures the rate a pitcher hits a zone defined by the batters' individual vertical limits (average across all PITCHf/x operator defined values) and two-foot wide plate.

Remember, with all these numbers, I'm mixing levels of competition (AFL and MLB).

IWZ Rate, All Pitches
Atkins   .667
Caridad  .558
Berg     .534
Gray     .524
Russell  .513
Parker   .478
Stevens  .453
Gaub     .269

For Atkins, that's 14 IWZ out of 21 pitches in the majors. Gaub was 7 for 26 in the AFL.

PITCHf/x Profiles

These pitch classifications are my own, not Gameday's. They're subject to change, but here's what I've got for the eight prospects:

Parker	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	9	87	-10	8
2-seam fastball	7	93	-8	7
4-seam fastball	30	93	-5	8
Cutter	1	90	-1	5
Slider	20	81	0	0

Parker's low IWZ was courtesy of his change-up, which he threw for exactly zero strikes in his AFL games covered by PITCHf/x. Otherwise, he was around .56. Parker's ground ball rate was just .23 in the same set of games. That seems flukey, as he just posted a .50 GB rate in AAA. And his overall AFL GB rate was .38.

Nothing stands-out about Parker, for me at least. Except his walk rate. From AA to AAA to AFL, he walked 41 batters in 75.1 innings. He did strike-out 88, but he's not on my list for 2010. He'll probably close games in Iowa, again.

Caridad	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	6	85	-9	5
2-seam fastball	45	92	-7	6
4-seam fastball	169	94	-5	9
Slider	65	78	8	-2

Despite his small size, Caridad can throw as hard as anyone in this group, outside of Gray. His slider is a slow version of Marmol's in terms of spin deflection. It has a little bit of sink and a ton of sweep, making it very slurvey, and checks in at curveball speed rather than the slider speed of Marmol's. It's unremarkable whiff rate (.261) is no different than the rate on his fastball. That, by the way, says a lot more about the heater than the slider. It's very unusual to miss that many bats with a fastball, Caridad's whiff rate is about double the MLB average for fastballs.

I expect Caridad to be back in the thick of things in the mid/late innings come April. His name has been on the radar for at least a couple years, and he seems ready to step up.

Russell	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	6	81	4	7
Curveball	2	77	-5	-2
4-seam fastball	22	91	6	10
Slider	9	83	-1	3

Russell was one of the most effective pitchers in the AFL. It's a hitter's league, but the lefty dominated in relief, posting a 1.26 ERA with 14 K and 2 BB in 14.1 innings. In the PITCHf/x covered games, his GB/LD/FB/PU rates were bizarre (small sample, thank you) at .29/0/.42/.29. Overall in the AFL he went .44/.23/.23/.10. That's close to his AAA line, but with a few more grounders.

Being effective in the AFL is impressive, but it's not the end of the story. Still, given the lack of left-handed options in the system, Russell should be in the running for a job come March.

Gray	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	6	91	-9	6
Curveball	45	79	4	-6
2-seam fastball	250	95	-9	6
4-seam fastball	95	95	-6	9
Slider	81	87	-1	2

Gray was the key piece of the Jake Fox/Aaron Miles trade. He looks good, with one glaring issue. On the plus side, he gets a ton of ground balls with everything but his 4-seam fastball, which is intended to miss bats (.225 whiff) and get pop-ups (.10). His slider has a gaudy whiff rate of .417 and I have to admit I have a innate appreciation for 95 mph 2-seam fastballs. Problem: the curveball can't find the zone (.2 IWZ), but he uses it when ahead on lefties. Tends to give up pitcher's counts by throwing it for a ball. I'll have more on Gray in a separate piece, too much to go into here.

Gray did well in the American League and the NL Central shouldn't pose as many challenges. His chances for a job in April are as good, if not better, than anyone's in this group.

Stevens	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Curveball	45	73	3	-10
2-seam fastball	2	91	-8	9
4-seam fastball	167	92	-3	9
Cutter	18	84	2	4
Slider	2	79	4	1

Stevens came up for about a month in the summer, and was sent back down when everyone realized he needed something besides a fastball and a curveball. He came back when rosters expanded with what morphed into a cutter (I think). He didn't throw any curves in his last three outings. His low GB rate (.31) isn't too surprising, considering his best/favorite pitch is the 4-seamer, but could come up as he works on his stuff.

Stevens has been pitching in Mexico the past couple weeks so maybe we'll get some news on what he's been working on. Obviously a guy the Cubs will give a shot, but a work in progress who will probably spend more time on the farm than with the big club once again.

Gaub	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
4-seam fastball	16	92	7	10
Cutter	10	87	-1	5

Gaub struggled in the AFL. In the PITCHf/x games his whiff rate (.63) stands in contrast to his minuscule IWZ rate. Both extreme, but not a bad hint at his overall numbers. In AAA, Gaub walked more than 4 per 9 innings, while striking out more than 11. In 9.2 AFL innings, he walked 6 and struck out 15.

With his history of control issues, I find it hard to picture this guy getting the call from Lou. Still, he's left-handed. He's got that going for him.

Berg	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
2-seam fastball	93	92	-9	4
4-seam fastball	14	92	-7	6
Splitter	4	86	-2	3
Slider	22	84	0	4

Throwing mostly sinking fastballs, Berg made a good impression in his 2009 call-up. His 0.75 ERA looks nice, but over just 12 innings it means next to nothing. Seven K and 1 BB are more important, and a .55 GB rate (.61 in AAA) says his sinker is working. He did have trouble throwing his slider for strikes, and barely used his "splitter", if that's what those were.

Berg got the job done, in limited time, in 2009. His track record of racking up ground balls may push him into the front of the pack, even if his secondary stuff is still rough.

Atkins	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Curveball	3	75	8	-5
4-seam fastball	6	90	-5	9
Cutter	1	91	-2	7
Slider	11	85	3	4

The softest tosser of the group, Atkins is sometimes billed as the second coming of Randy Wells, for whatever that's worth. During his brief MLB stint, he didn't throw that all important sinker, but he might have used it in Iowa. Probably not, his 2009 AAA GB rate was just .34. His velocity is below Wells', but his slider is similar. And Wells had a lot of success with that slider.

Atkins has received some accolades as a minor league, mostly thanks to high win totals. He didn't get many looks in 2009 (two innings plus an exhibition start in Yankee Stadium, sans PITCHf/x) and will probably find himself on the same back burner in 2010.

Ranking This Part of the Field

There are plenty of pitchers who will also get looks in Mesa. Some are pitching in the Caribbean and will get a look-see later on this off-season.

From this group of eight, I think three have a legitimate shot at the Opening Day roster:

Gray

Caridad

Russell

Two have a long shot:

Berg

Gaub

And three are destined for Des Moines:

Atkins

Parker

Stevens

So, it will probably be the opposite of what I'm predicting. I could have easily flipped Berg and Russell (hedge), too.

AAA stats from minorleaguesplits.com

Notes on Recent Cubs Hot Stove Reports

2009-12-02T10:23:00.006-06:00

The hot stove is lit, and things should be crazy at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis. The Cubs have been in the news a lot lately, so I figured I'd take the blog out of hiatus and get cracking again.

Takashi Saito
Once an elite closer, Saito is turning 40 in February and has been in decline since 2007. Thing is, he's still serviceable and may not be a bad middle/late inning guy in 2010. The rumor mill says eight teams are kicking the tires, so that may make the price go up too much. I have more on Saito's decline at The Hardball Times.

Milton Bradley, Luis Castillo and Pat Burrell
This is one that keeps coming back. Milt and cash to Tampa, with a hopeful flip of Burrell to New York for Castillo.

Castillo would be about average in terms of overall value, but I can't get behind middle infielders in their middle thirties. Even though I can't see the Cubs getting fair value in any scenario involving Bradley.

Rick Ankiel
Twitter was popping about Ankiel recently. As in, the Cubs are "poised" to sign him once Bradley is gone. I found the origin at Hot Stove Cubbies. Sourcing seems weak, and I have no idea of that blog's track record on these things:

According to sources, the Cubs are poised to sign Rick Ankiel as soon as Milton Bradley is traded. The Cubs have been linked to Ankiel recently along with Crisp, Cameron, Byrd, among others....It is also rumored the Cubs will in fact offer Ankiel a multi-year deal so they can can make the money disperse more over years rather than him signing a one year deal worth a higher figure.

I really don't know what to make of this report, but who knows. Besides, Ankiel isn't much of a player. He's not a kid anymore (30) and even a rebound from last year's bomb wouldn't be much of a treat, on offense or defense.

Samardzija Done for the Winter

2009-11-05T13:33:00.003-06:00

Jeff Samardzija isn't starting tonight (although it may have been his turn) for Mexicali. As a matter of fact, he's no longer listed on their roster. Schlitter, Camp and Snyder are still there, but wtvr.

I checked Google News and, lo and behold, Cubs.com is already reporting it:

On Friday, [Thomas] Diamond, 26, heads to Mexico to join the Mexicali team and take pitcher Jeff Samardzija's spot on the roster.

No other mention of Samardzija in the article (which is about Diamond). I guess he got his innings in.

Steve Trout Suing Former Team

2009-11-01T08:47:00.003-06:00

Ex-Cub pitcher Steve Trout has filed a lawsuit against the company that owned a team he once managed:

Trout says he was severely beaten during an onfield brawl between the Texarkana Gunslingers and the Corpus Christi Beach Dawgs of the Continental Baseball League. Trout, who managed the Gunslingers in 2008, says the team had inadequate security and fired him for "insisting that he be provided with a safe working environment."

The CBL certainly won't be taking Trout's side - they suspended two games him for the fight. Only Trout and two Beach Dawgs were issued suspensions.

"The CBL doesn't condone this behavior and any future similar on-field acts can result in a player and manager receiving a one year ban from the league," stated CBL president Ron Baron...."the type of conduct that took place on Friday night in Texarkana is not acceptable, nor is it consistent with our family friendly environment. Both organizations have been put on notice that future altercations will result in more serious discipline."

Trout was fired a week later.

Will Paying $800k for Rudy Jaramillo Help Alfonso Soriano?

2009-10-19T15:38:00.003-05:00

Jon Heyman is reporting this:

Highly respected hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo is in serious talks with the Chicago Cubs about becoming their new hitting coach, and it appears likely that the sides will reach an agreement for Jaramillo to join the Cubs soon, SI.com has learned...It is believed he will receive a multiyear deal for about $800,000 per year. Dave Duncan and Mike Maddux are thought to currently be the highest paid coaches in baseball at about $750,000.

Hmm. That's a lot of cash for a coach. Well, I guess he's some type of super genius.

Jaramillo worked with Cubs LF Alfonso Soriano when Soriano was a Ranger. The Cubs are hoping their reunion will spark Soriano

Hmm (again). Soriano's slash line by team:


NYY 284/322/502   
TEX 274/316/498
WAS 277/351/560
CHC 275/328/508

If the Cubs want to spark Sori via a new hitting coach, they should hire Mitchell Page.

Dominican Winter League Cubs

2009-10-16T23:40:00.002-05:00

The 2009-2010 Winter League Cubs post has been updated with the first few Cubs added to Dominican Winter League rosters. Basically, Alfsono Soriano and a bunch of kids.

Update Esmailin Caridad and Aramis Ramirez are on Licey's roster.

Cashner Has Rough AFL Debut, Castro Keeps Hitting

2009-10-16T21:21:00.005-05:00

Andrew Cashner threw the first two frames of an Arizona Fall League match-up in Mesa this afternoon. A home run, one of three hits, a walk and three strike outs were enough for one day in the hitter friendly AFL. No PITCHf/x, that will only be in Peoria and Surprise.

Cashner opened his first inning with a strike out, a single and a walk. Cashner got the second out by striking out Ike Davis. Davis could get a look at first in 2010 for the Mets. Not quite out of the jam, Cashner gave up his gopher ball to another New York first base prospect, the Yankees' Brandon Laird. No further damage, beyond an infield single.

Two Cubs star prospects also started (but finished) the game. Starlin Castro knocked out three more hits, bringing his total to 7 in 14 at bats. He also stole his first base of the Fall season.

Castro shared the left side of the infield with Josh Vitters. We might see this combo in Wrigley before too long. Vitters was hitless with a walk in four trips. Yes, Josh Vitters took a walk.

Gameday

Update The Trib had a reporter at the game. Cashner was described as sharp, despite the first inning troubles. The prospect had this to say:

"I thought I threw the ball well except for one pitch,"...

One mistake, he acknowledged, was grooving a 3-2 fastball to Laird, who went opposite field to right for a three-run homer in the first.

"I left it up in the middle of the plate," said Cashner, the Cubs' first-round pick in 2008 out of TCU. "He hit it well, but it might not have been out at a lot of parks."

Cashner also said he's on a 40-pitch limit.

Samardzija Goes Six in Second Start for Mexicali

2009-10-15T23:06:00.002-05:00

Jeff Samardzija continued his questionable journey towards the 2010 Cubs rotation. Making his second start for Mexicali, Samardzija completed six innings while allowing one run on six hits. He struck out four and didn't give up any walks.

Hopefully he'll get a start at Mazlatan at some point, since they stream their home games online.

Don't Let Your Babies Grow-up to be Catchers

2009-10-13T14:30:00.003-05:00

One catcher, one off-season, three operations:

Mariners catcher Rob Johnson, who was right-hander Felix Hernandez's personal catcher for most of the season, will have surgery on Friday to repair a torn labrum in his right hip, the first of several surgeries he faces in the next several weeks.

In approximately three weeks, Johnson will return to Colorado for an identical operation on his [left] hip.

After three to four weeks of rehabilitation, Johnson will return to Seattle, where he will undergo an operation on his left wrist. That procedure will be performed by wrist specialist Dr. Carlton Keck.

Johnson is also recovering from an ankle injury.

2009-2010 Winter League Cubs

2009-10-12T00:00:00.008-05:00

Here's the latest on the Cubs Winter ball participants. All roster information from MLB.com.

Cubs winter stats

Dominican Republic

Oriente: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Junior Lake, Alfonso Soriano
Cibao: Mario Mercedes
Licey: Esmailin Caridad, Aramis Ramirez
Este: Jeffry Antigua, Alberto Cabrera, Manolin De Leon, Jose Pina, Jose Made, Nelson Perez

Venezuela

Anzoategui: Eduardo Figueroa, Carlos E. Rojas, Carlos Zambrano, Jose Guevara, George Matheus
Magallanes: Robert Hernandez, Robinson Chirinos, Andres Blanco, Luis Rivas, Larry Suarez
Caracas: Marwin Gonzalez, J.R. Mathes
Aragua: Jonathan Mota
Margarita: Jhon Rodriguez

Mexico

Mexicali: Brad Snyder, Matt Camp, Jeff Samardzija, Brian Schlitter

AFL Cubs

Samardzija and Friends in Mexico

2009-10-10T09:08:00.003-05:00

Jeff Samardzija is meh in Mexico, too. Four innings (box score), two walks and two strike outs. He gave up a run on three hits as Mexicali got clubbed by Hermosillo.

Nothing special, but better than Brian Schlitter. Schlitter, who spent 2009 in Double-A Tennessee, gave up four runs (two earned) on three hits. He didn't retire a single batter.

Farm hands Brad Snyder and Matt Camp (who may be minor league free agents at the moment) started for Mexicali in the outfield.

Ted Lilly's Peak Velocity

2009-09-30T19:37:00.007-05:00

Ted Lilly lacked velocity in what is likely his last start of 2009. I'm not sure it's cause for concern. Looking at the three fastest four-seamers Ted threw in each start in PITCHf/x (back to 2007), we can see Lilly's done this before.

click to enlarge

I have to admit, his peak velocity does look a to be down, or at least erratic, late in 2009.

Here's a tab delimited text file containing the dates and speeds (including the reference # in the axis). Ted Lilly Peak Velocity

Is Lou Expecting Too Much From Zambrano?

2009-09-26T10:43:00.005-05:00

ACB raises a good question about Big Z's start last night:

from Gordon Whittenmeyer:

"This is somewhat what you expect from him on a consistent basis," said manager Lou Piniella after his team staved off division elimination for one more day .... "This is what this guy's capable of. We just want to see it more often."

.... No wonder Cubs fans expect too much out of the players. How on earth can you expect Zambrano to pitch as well as he did last night on a consistent basis? Lou has been around this game decades and he actually just said that they expect this from him on a consistent basis. So, Lou expects Zambrano to consistently go out there and throw 9 innings, allow 2 hits, no runs, walk only 1 and strikeout 8?

I just don't think, if you asked a follow-up, that Lou would take it so far. Actually, although Lou's kinda wrong, Lou is kinda right.

Huh?

What if I told you that last night's start was just in the top 17% of Z's starts since May 2007? What if I told you it was the best, thanks to some luck?

Top 4 by rv100, which is based on batted ball outcomes (hits/xbh/outs) directly, which includes last night (#1) and the no-no (#4)


2009-09-25     -6.58
2008-07-09     -6.33
2007-08-19     -6.00
2008-09-14     -5.68

Top 12 by rv100E, which uses batted ball type (line drive etc) and extrapolates expected hits/outs from there, which includes last night (12) and the no-no (4).


2007-06-22     -3.26
2007-08-19     -3.24
2008-07-04     -2.42
2008-09-14     -2.41
2009-06-10     -2.13
2008-07-09     -1.97
2008-07-29     -1.91
2007-07-29     -1.73
2009-09-04     -1.71
2007-09-28     -1.70
2008-04-06     -1.64
2009-09-25     -1.57

So, is it unreasonable to expect Carlos to pitch that way consistently? Maybe a little bit, but not egregiously. It's a high bar, but he can reach it. It just doesn't mean two hit shutouts every time. Not to me at least.

The no-hitter vs. the two-hitter

Ground ball %: 75% to 52%, in favor of the no-hitter
Fly ball %: 13% to 33%, again the no-hitter wins
Pop up %: 6% to 0, no-hitter had more grounders and more pop-ups
Line drive %: 6% to 14%, more hard hit balls in the two-hitter
In wide zone rate: .546 to .490, more strikes
Whiff rate: .245 to .298, better in the two-hitter, a first
Swing rate: .446 to .480, hmmm less strikes but more swings
Chase rate: .280 to .380, which makes sense given the IWZ/Swing/Whiff
Watch rate: tied at .417

Zambrano pitched very well against the Giants. The aggressive swinging, and a little bit of luck and help from the defense, took care of the rest.

How strong was he? (update)

Looking a the Tim Lincecum end of things, I also found Big Z was extra strong last night. Read it at Beyond the Box Score.

Cubs Release Seven Minor Leaguers

2009-09-25T20:42:00.003-05:00

This week's run-down of minor league transactions, thanks to Baseball America's Matt Eddy

Chicago Cubs
Released: RHP Ezequiel Astacio, LHP Ryan Sontag, C Juan Medina, 2B Jose Made, OF Glenn Cook, OF Jericho Jones, OF Jonathan Wyatt

Eddy provides a note on Cook:

A 46th-rounder this year from Miami, Cook is notable because he’s (apparently) the first ’09 draft pick to hit the release wire.

I'll try and hit the rest ...

Astacio, with the unfortunate nickname "Scarface" is a journeyman who last saw time in the Majors as an Astro in 2006. The Cubs purchased his contract from the San Angelo Colts.

Sontag converted from outfield to pitcher late last Summer in Boise. He lasted one "full" season of the Northwest league on the bump full time.

Medina is a catcher who signed with the Cubs, saw some time at other positions in the instructional league, at is now cut loose with less than two years in the system

Made was a 20th round pick in 2007. He made it as far as Daytona, but with a career average of .160.

Another 20th round pick, this time in 2008, goes as well—Jericho Jones. He also saw time in Daytona, but didn't impress. Or something.

Wyatt was a 2007 pick, 17th round out of Georgia, and another High-A and out.