Culture Snob

Does Oscar Have a Growing Problem?

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:30:00 -0600

Question: Do you like or dislike the idea of expanding the number of Best Picture Oscar nominees from five to 10?

Choices: I like it. I don't like it. I'm reserving judgment until I see it in action.

See the results (9 vote[s]) or vote.

The announcement that the Academy Awards will double the number of Best Picture nominees this year has certainly generated buzz, although it has mostly led to jokes about the length of the awards telecast. (And while we're at it: What's the deal with airline peanuts?) The Film Experience's Nathaniel Rogers summarizes the reactions and remains doubtful that the move will broaden the appeal of the nominees:

"Mostly the expanded competitive field will just mean more slots for the type of movies Oscar likes to nominate — i.e., serious dramas, message movies, period pieces, war films, and films that smell of prestige in some way (lauded source material, famous auteurs, you know the type)."

I'm skeptical of his skepticism — at least looking backward.

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Box Office Power Rankings: May 1-25, 2009

Thu, 28 May 2009 15:22:51 -0600

The conventional wisdom says that among the early entrants in the summer 2009 sweepstakes, Star Trek is a hit (and a winner in its first three weekends in our Box Office Power Rankings), Wolverine is a disappointment, and nobody cares about Angels and Demons. Yet X-Men Origins: Wolverine had the biggest North American opening of the three: $85 million.

These evaluations are muddied by so many variables — buzz, expectations, marketing, screen saturation, critical assessment — that it's difficult to cut through the crap. This leads to some conventional wisdom that is anything but wise, such as the idea that the 2008 Hulk reboot was, in box-office terms, a triumph over its nearly identically performing 2003 forebear.

But I think we can say with some quantifiable certainty that our first impressions of the 2009 summer movie season are correct.

One simple measure is second-weekend drop-off, generally considered a reliable indicator of a movie's staying power.

So: Wolverine dropped 69.0 percent from $85 million; Star Trek dropped 42.8 percent from $75 million; and Angels and Demons dropped 53.0 percent (not counting the Monday holiday) from $46 million.

The combination of opening box office and relative performance in the second weekend seems to support the consensus. Solid openings for both Wolverine and Star Trek suggest excitement about the titles, and they diverge from there. Angels and Demons debuted 40 percent lower than The Da Vinci code, confirming apathy.

But you can't take either factor independent of the other. The Dark Knight's second-weekend percentage drop (52.5) is rubbing up against Angels and Demons', but you must consider the height ($158 million) from which it fell.

And these numbers probably work best in one-on-one comparisons. Last summer, both Iron Man and Indiana Jones had three-day opening grosses around $100 million; identifying which dropped 55.3 percent the next weekend and which dropped 48.1 percent would just confirm what you already know in your gut.

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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A Life More Ordinary

Mon, 11 May 2009 15:55:32 -0600

(A submission to Counting Down the Zeroes, a project by Ibetolis at Film for the Soul.)

Much to my surprise, I can find no reference to the nearly universal cinematic "wedding-ring rule": Any time a wedding ring is a prominent prop or visual motif in a movie, infidelity will be a central theme. The obverse: Any movie with infidelity as a central theme will feature the wedding ring as a prop or visual motif.

I could offer dozens of examples, but the best might be Lantana, which is obviously about sexual straying but has a greater interest in marriage overall, especially the underlying, intertwined issues of trust and honesty. Although it's nearly too blunt in its themes, the movie feels continuously right, nailing not only relationship dynamics but interred grief and pain. Throughout, it gets the tone, nuance, and scale of life correct.

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Box Office Power Rankings: April 17-26, 2009

Tue, 05 May 2009 10:06:50 -0600

Thank Gods (I've been watching Battlestar Galactica, although to say I've been enjoying it would be an overstatement) that with X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the summer movie season is finally here. Normally, I would need Entertainment Weekly to tell me this, but our subscription lapsed. So I have to rely on the Wolverine television ads, which actually claim that those muttonchops are the first sign of the season.

Wolverine did well enough in its opening weekend, with $85 million domestically, but I'm afraid it might actually be an appropriate opener for summer 2009: the next installment of an established brand, and a movie that seems to excite very few people. Yes, they show up and pay their money the first weekend, but I think it's out of habit. Call it obligation cinema.

Perhaps I'm just being old and sour, because it's not like this is a new trend. But this summer seems particularly grim from a movie perspective. A Transformers sequel and G.I. Joe mean that we're long past my nostalgia period, while Land of the Lost as a summer movie seems like an unfathomably bad idea. We have the fourth Terminator, the sixth Harry Potter, the 11th Star Trek, the 10th Halloween, the third Ice Age, the second Night at the Museum, and the Da Vinci Code prequel Angels and Demons.

How many people actually loved the most-recent chapter in any of these series? I'm not complaining that the season is sequel-heavy, in other words; I'm complaining that the summer tent poles belong to franchises that should have been allowed to die with a modicum of dignity. (Yes, I recognize that one can't euthanize Harry Potter before J.K. Rowling intended, but I've been underwhelmed since that which we call Ass Cabin.)

Remember Godzilla, from 1998? It stank, and was heard from nevermore. But with a worldwide gross of almost $380 million, it would certainly merit a sequel or the fashionable "re-launch" these days, because the name recognition is simply too high.

All this has nothing to do with the two sets of Box Office Power Rankings included here, won by State of Play and Earth.

Unless, of course, you want to make a joke about these Box Office Power Rankings being completely unnecessary and unwanted sequels.

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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Box Office Power Rankings: April 3-12, 2009

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:06:59 -0600

A run of sequels is supposed to die a slow death, with waning interest as a series progresses. What, then, explains the $71-million opening-weekend take of Fast and Furious?

I know everybody has already forgotten the damned thing exists, but I'm still awed by that number. It's a third sequel in a franchise nobody gets excited about, and it tops the series' previous best start by $20 million.

Given the relatively dim star power of Vin Diesel, Paul, Walker, Michelle Rodriguez, and Jordana Brewster, it can't be attributed to their returns. So what is it?

Here's my hypothesis: Fast and Furious isn't a spring movie; it has marked the beginning of summer 2009.

Consider that its opening weekend was just $17 million short of Spider-Man 2's summer 2004 debut. It's also the biggest April opening ever — by nearly $30 million. You shall know it by the company it keeps, and these are not just summer numbers, but good summer numbers. The two Fantastic Four movies opened with $56 million and $58 million.

I had assumed that the season this year would start May 1 (X-Men Origins: Wolverine, followed the next weekend by Star Trek), but my calendar is apparently all screwed up.

You might remember that Fast and Furious was originally slated for a June 12 release. Perhaps this is evidence that summer is an attitude, not a date range.

Alas, neither Fast and Furious nor Hannah Montana: The Movie could translate their box-office wins into Box Office Power Rankings victories. With the lowest winning scores since early January (32 out of 40) and December (31), Monsters Vs. Aliens notched two more titles. This is a demonstration of the field's weakness rather than that movie's strength.

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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The Form Is the Function

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:11:00 -0600

(A submission to Counting Down the Zeroes, a project by Ibetolis at Film for the Soul.)

Memento is such a triumph of tricky narrative structure that it's difficult to get (and keep) a grip on what happens, let alone the objective truth of its protagonist's past. Christopher Nolan's second feature, which he wrote and directed based on his brother Jonathan's short story, seems perpetually slippery and elusive.

I've seen it at least six times since it was released in the U.S. in 2001 (it debuted at festivals in September 2000), and even though I know it well, each time it repeatedly throws me off. The movie's closing line — in context, a sick joke by Nolan — is an excellent summary of how I feel watching it: "Now ... where was I?"

Yet with enough familiarity and perspective, it becomes clear that there's no great mystery: Leonard killed his wife by accident because of his "condition," and he will hunt down one "John G." after another knowing, somewhere in the dark well of his mind, that he's done it before and will do it again. Once you accept that — and therefore discount ambiguity as the source of the movie's lasting appeal — you can see that Memento's magnificence is its structure: a near-perfect match of form with content.

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Counting Down the Zeroes

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:01:10 -0600

Ibetolis, the man behind Film for the Soul, has undertaken a massive project called "Counting Down the Zeroes," in which he devotes a month to the movies of one year in the current decade.

I don't understand the mechanics of his bending of space and time, but apparently 2000 ends on April 19, after which 2001 begins.

One goal is to offer "as many differing voices as possible to commentate on a decade of film." To that end, he has accepted a 2004 essay I wrote on Requiem for a Dream into the project.

To see all the entries, you can visit Film for the Soul or the new Counting Down the Zeroes blog.

Box Office Power Rankings: March 20-29, 2009

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 16:03:26 -0600

Question: How do you feel about 3D movies and the current 3D technology?

Choices: I try to see every 3D movie that comes out. I enjoy them occasionally. I enjoy them but won't pay extra for 3D. If it's 3D it's not for me. I miss the red and blue glasses.

See the results (8 vote[s]) or vote.

The $59.3-million opening-weekend domestic take for Monsters Vs. Aliens is being touted as proof that 3D is a viable way to pry people off their couches and get them into the damned movie theater. Nearly 56 percent of that amount came from 3D theaters, even though 3D projection accounted for only 28 percent of the movie's screens.

That all sounds impressive, but consider that WALL·E took in $63.1 million its first weekend, Kung Fu Panda $60.2 million, and Cars $60.1 million. Yes, those were all summer movies, but they didn't benefit from the higher ticket prices for 3D that inflated the take of Monsters Vs. Aliens. They also didn't have the aid of a massive and well-timed handjob (in 3D, of course) from Time Inc.

Monsters Vs. Aliens admittedly did well; on the strength of its box office and solid reviews, it won this past weekend's Box Office Power Rankings — unseating I Love You, Man.

But its success doesn't herald the dawn of a new era, no matter what 3D messiahs Jeffrey Katzenberg and James Cameron say. Their sermons amount to wishful thinking on the part of the speakers and the converted.

Here's my argument, having seen Monster House and some IMAX movies in 3D:

The supposed value of 3D is immersion. Yet surround sound already effectively and cheaply provides that illusion without the damned glasses and all the negatives that go along with them.

If you've ever watched a plunge on an IMAX screen (say, in The Dark Knight), you know that scale can also create the illusion of immersion without the glasses.

Great painters aren't necessarily great sculptors, and the extra dimension requires different skills. 3D movies suck (or the 3D is superfluous) because those making them don't know how to appropriately use the extra space. We'd have to unlearn more than a century of filmmaking to do it right.

3D is antithetical to one of the major trends in cinema: the decreasing shot length. 3D effects must be set up with a stable perspective, which runs counter to the current cut-cut-cut culture.

3D will be best employed in mindless entertainments, but isn't one of the goals of mindless entertainments to maintain a safe distance — and a wall — between the consumer and the entertainment? An immersive movie — no matter the genre — will likely be too intense to allow escape; it would replace one set of stressors with another.

Obviously, the novelty will wear off.

Remember how we were all supposed to be living in our virtual-reality suits by now, and having virtual sex, and flying virtual planes?

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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Favorite Film Characters

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:07:34 -0600

Squish created what he called the "Favorite Film Characters Meme," and he was unkind enough to tag me. And while I'm skeptical that anything can be called a "meme" at the outset, I'm game. Slow, but game.

As somebody who generally connects with movies on the structural, story, and thematic levels, this task is quite the challenge. It's not that I don't pay attention to characterization, but I fall in love with a work as a whole rather than a particular aspect of it. Hence, this list overlaps significantly with my favorite movies.

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Apple of My I

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 11:13:27 -0600

She dreams of them. She fills her computer screen with digital drawings of them. One is left on a swing at her house. Snow White is poisoned by one in her daughter's play just before the abduction. In her kitchen are dozens of them that she chucks into the kitchen sink, which then explodes with brown muck. She cannot escape them, but she also surrounds herself with them.

Claire is torturing herself with the fucking apples.

Overripe and finally fetid, Neil Jordan's In Dreams goes very, very wrong as a thriller in its final act (and even wronger in its epilogue), but if you fall asleep the first time you see Robert Downey Jr.'s face, you might think you've seen something weirdly special.

Actually, it is pretty special, but you need to dive below the silly surface.

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Box Office Power Rankings: March 6-15, 2009

Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:44:41 -0600

How do we evaluate Watchmen's box-office performance, given that most of the assessments so far are based on unrealistic expectations that it would do Batman or Spider-Man business?

Fear not: I am watching those watching the Watchmen. Even though I haven't watched Watchmen.

Zack Snyder's adaptation of the legendary comic won the Box Office Power Rankings in its first two weekends, but it's widely considered a commercial disappointment. As Box Office Mojo put it:

"Watchmen disintegrated 68 percent to $17.8 million for $85.8 million in 10 days, trailing all previous superhero movies that debuted in the $50-million range through the same point. ... [A]mong major comic-book movies, only Hellboy II: The Golden Army and Hulk had steeper drop-offs."

That sounds damning, but notice the caveats: "superhero movies that debuted in the $50-million range," "major comic-book movies." Notice the quick-read contradiction of "trailing all previous superhero movies" with other superhero movies then performing worse.

Box Office Mojo concluded that its box-office performance

"further cemented Watchmen's status as a movie with much more limited appeal than other superhero pictures, rooted in its non-mainstream source material and its diffuse storyline and marketing."

But isn't all that self-evident, and hasn't it always been? Anybody who expected Watchmen to be a mainstream hit probably also envisioned big things for Speed Racer.

Watchmen will cross the $100-million mark domestically in the next few days, and no movie that makes that much money in three weeks is a flop.

Yes, its second-weekend performance was weak, compared to other comic-book movies not attached to a holiday weekend in their first two weeks: Iron Man, down 48 percent; The Dark Knight, 53 percent; The Incredible Hulk, 60 percent; Spider-Man 3, 62 percent.

So Watchmen dropped 68 percent. Given the vaunted status of the graphic novel and its devoted audience, should anybody be surprised that those who wanted to see it had to see it on its opening weekend? Given the ambivalence about Snyder's meticulous re-creation, and given the challenges of translation from page to screen, should anybody be surprised that it generated more curiosity than excitement?

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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Feeling Blu, Ray?

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 11:08:48 -0600

Question: Poll: What best describes your relationship with Blu-ray?

Choices: I own a player, and I love it. I own a player, and I'm unimpressed. I desperately want one. I'll buy one when player prices come down. I'll buy one when disc prices come down. I'll ask for one as a gift. I shan't stray from DVD. No one will remember Blu-ray in three years.

See the results (26 vote[s]) or vote.

Up to six times the resolution of DVD! Perfect picture and sound! Sparkling high definition!

The marketing push for Blu-ray players and discs has been full of these and similar pronouncements, trying in a shitty economy to get you to upgrade your DVD player and (ideally) replace your current movie collection with this relatively new format. Concurrent with that has been the debate about whether Blu-ray will "survive" after winning the "format war" with HD DVD in February 2008. Concurrent with that have been silly partisan arguments using adoption rates and sales figures to show that Blu-ray reigns victorious! or that Blu-ray is already dead!

If you're anything like me — and my sincerest condolences if you are — that's a lot of noise to filter, and experts only add to it. Read a wonky review of a Blu-ray disc, and it's easy to be baffled by jargon such as "edge enhancement" and "DNR." Read enough of them and you'll get sick of the phrase "inky blacks." Read reviews of players and you'll be buried in technical specs, from supported sound formats to analysis of upconversion to connection types.

But you want an answer to a simple question: Should I upgrade to Blu-ray?

A simple answer from this layperson's perspective: not yet, unless you have cash to burn.

Continue reading.

Box Office Power Rankings: February 20-March 1, 2009

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:19:10 -0600

I've often pointed out in the Box Office Power Rankings when I've thought a movie had a poor release strategy, and in that spirit I have to wonder why Tyler Perry's movies are still only being released at 2,000 sites. His last five movies have opened in about that many theaters, and their first-weekend grosses have ranged from $17 million to $41 million.

The worst performer among those movies earned nearly $8,400 per theater in its opening weekend, which is just a hair shy of what The Day the Earth Stood Still did in its debut. The new Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail topped $20,000 per theater, better than anything since Milk the last weekend of November and barely eclipsed by Twilight in its first three days. Give Tyler Perry some damned screens!

Requisite negativity aside, has there been a movie in recent memory that's had a better release pattern than Slumdog Millionaire? It has earned $115 million on a production budget of $15 million, and its domestic gross has risen in 12 of the 15 weekends (80 percent) since its debut. Yes, it has been opportunistic, taking advantage of well-timed awards and nominations, but it takes a special touch to navigate the vagaries of the cinematic marketplace so well over such a long period of time.

For Best Picture comparison's sake, Milk's gross has gone up in eight of its 13 post-debut weekends (62 percent); The Reader six or eight (depending on whether you count holiday Mondays) of 11 (55 or 73 percent); Frost/Nixon five of its 12 (42 percent); and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button one of nine (11 percent).

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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Watchmen's Opening Weekend

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:55:49 -0600

Question: How much will Watchmen earn in the United States in its first weekend?

Choices: Less than $20 million. $20 million to $40 million. $40 million to $60 million. $60 million to $80 million. More than $80 million.

See the results (10 vote[s]) or vote.

A New Beginning for Opening Shots?

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 23:00:57 -0600

It appears that Scanners' Jim Emerson has a renewed interest in his fantastic Opening Shots Project, after a hiatus of more than a year for the series. In February he's published entries on Shotgun Stories, The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 2, and The Producers,

These short essays, with their microscopic attention to detail and narrow scope, are always insightful and instructive, and they're generally more enlightening than the vast majority of film criticism.

I've even tried a few myself, including on Krzysztof Kieslowski's Bleu, Atom Egoyan's Calendar, and Christopher Nolan's Memento.

A Quest for Joy

Thu, 26 Feb 2009 15:02:44 -0600

On the 1996 benefit album Sweet Relief II: The Gravity of the Situation, the songs of Vic Chesnutt were covered by everybody from Madonna to R.E.M. to the Smashing Pumpkins to the Indigo Girls. Early in his career, the singer/songwriter was championed by Michael Stipe, who produced Chesnutt's first two records, released in 1990 and 1991. PBS aired a documentary titled Speed Racer about his life. He had a small part in Sling Blade.

He has collaborated with a diverse slate of artists from Widespread Panic to jazz guitarist Bill Frisell to the Cowboy Junkies to members of Fugazi and Godspeed You! Black Emperor. Chesnutt's latest partnership is with the psychedelic-pop group Elf Power, part of the Georgia collective that spawned The Apples in Stereo and Neutral Milk Hotel. Chesnutt and Elf Power will be among the performers at a March 18 R.E.M. tribute concert at Carnegie Hall, at which they'll perform "Everybody Hurts."

I start with the résumé because even if you've heard Chesnutt's name, he's not exactly famous. He has an immense reputation but a relatively small audience.

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Box Office Power Rankings: February 6-16, 2009

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:22:11 -0600

Coraline won our Box Office Power Rankings for the past two weekends, and its success forces me to make two confessions: (1) I felt a touch ashamed and flawed for not adoring Henry Selick's two previous stop-motion features (The Nightmare Before Christmas and James and the Giant Peach), and (2) I loved his live-action/animation hybrid Monkeybone. My memories of those three movies are too faded to justify or explain myself, and I haven't seen Coraline, but my conscience is now clear.

Let's move on.

What could possible explain Friday the 13th's $43.6-million holiday-weekend take? Let's be honest: The first one sucked — yes, I have seen it as an adult — and the movies didn't exactly improve as the franchise progressed. The series proper (1980's first installment through 2002's Jason in Space [I know, I know]) has gotten less popular as it's gone on, with its domestic gross shrinking in spite of inflation. (The order, from highest box office to lowest, is 1, 3, 4, 5, 2, 6, 7, 9, 8, 10.) Sure, Freddy Vs. Jason opened with $36.4 million in 2003, but it's a special case of synergy.

To the surprise of no one, a remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street is in pre-production. So what's next on the 1970s/’80s horror/sci-fi list? Poltergeist? RoboCop?

I'm generally not bothered by remakes/reboots/re-imaginings, and I certainly believe fresh eyes and contexts can find new uses for recycled material. But Friday the 13th was a threadbare knock-off of a movie that skated by (quite well, admittedly) on technique over originality.

And audiences reward this shit by showing up.

Incidentally, Monkeybone barely made $5 million in theaters in the United States — about $8 million less than the lowest-grossing Friday the 13th. But I'm not bitter.

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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Devouring the Oscars: Best Animated Short Film

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:17:40 -0600

Part of the "LAMB Devours the Oscars" series at the Large Association of Movie Blogs.

I'll start with an admonition: You have no reason not to have a horse in the short-film categories for the Oscars.

These should be your favorite races, because they require relatively small investments of time. If you see and hate The Reader, you've lost 124 minutes of your life. If you see and hate Lavatory - Lovestory, you're out 10 minutes. And the chances of you hating Lavatory - Lovestory are much smaller.

Alas, each has about the same chance of winning the top prize in its category.

My point is this: In 20 minutes, you can see all five nominees in the Animated Short Film category — three in full, one trailer, and one excerpt. On the plus side, it doesn't appear that there are any stinkers here. On the down side, the movies that seem to be the most interesting are the ones that you can't see in their entireties.

Here's another reason to watch these movies: Given the high level of prognosticator consensus in major categories, your best chance of winning your Oscar pool is to make smart picks in the minor categories.

I present the Best Animated Short Film nominees from least likely to win to most likely.

Continue reading.

How Sure Is the Sure Thing?

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:15:09 -0600

Question: I offer you Slumdog Millionaire, and I would get the remainder of the Best Picture field. What stakes would make you say "no"?

Choices: I wouldn't take that bet, period. $10. $25. $50. $100. $200. More! More!.

See the results (25 vote[s]) or vote.

Box Office Power Rankings: January 30-February 1, 2009

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 13:35:42 -0600

Rotten Tomatoes has a feature called "Average Tomatometer by Year," and the default screen for Renée Zellweger looks grim. From 2005 to 2009, her score drops for two years (from 80 to 52), recovers a little (to 64), and falls off a cliff (to 19).

This is completely meaningless, of course. If you expand the time frame, the line jumps up and down mercilessly. If you've ever heard of the trouble with a "small sample size," this is prime evidence, with most actors being in one or two movies a year. And Renée is but one person in movies containing (and made by) multitudes.

Still, there's the sneaking suspicion that Ms. Zellweger is on a downward trajectory. Her latest, the romantic comedy New in Town, finished in last place in our Box Office Power Rankings (won by Slumdog Millionaire), and new releases only landed in that spot eight other times over the past year. Entertainment Weekly's recent "Recall the Gold" survey wanted to steal her Oscar for 2003's Cold Mountain.

Has the world soured on the ... errrr ... unique charms of Renée Zellweger? She has arguably been asked to "carry" four movies, and the combined Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores for those are 146 (2001's Bridget Jones's Diary [$71.5 million in domestic box office]), 70 (2004's Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason [$40.2 million]), 123 (2006's Miss Potter [$3.0 million]), and now 48 with New in Town ($6.7 million after one weekend). It's hard to call it a trend, but those numbers don't portend good things for her career.

Continue reading for the methodology and the week's full rankings.

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