Currency Thoughts

Next Week

larrygreenberg — Sat, 19 May 2012 00:40:35 +0000

The summit of G8 leaders in Maryland winds up on Saturday, May 19. An EU summit is scheduled for Wednesday, the same day that the OECD Economic Outlook will be published and that minutes from the Bank of England early-May meeting are being released. Some of the central bankers with public appearances include ECB President [...]

Chile

larrygreenberg — Fri, 18 May 2012 19:27:55 +0000

Officials at the Central Bank of Chile did not change the 5.0% monetary policy rate. This was the fourth consecutive monthly meeting to conclude with a decision of no interest rate change. From a Great Recession low of 0.50%, 275 basis points of increase were implemented in 2010 and a further 200 bps of increase [...]

Big Storm Coming and No Place to Hide

larrygreenberg — Fri, 18 May 2012 19:01:30 +0000

The euro’s increasing vulnerability is the main topic of currency market chatter. It has taken 2.5 years for the euro to depreciate about 23 U.S. cents or some 15%. Over this span, a familiar sequence of crisis intensification, slow policy response, and eventual announcement of measures to preserve the euro has kicked the problem down [...]

More Angst about Europe as G8 Leaders Gather at Camp David for Annual Summit

larrygreenberg — Fri, 18 May 2012 10:44:33 +0000

Pacific Basin equities took another deep dive, falling 3.0% in Japan, 2.7% in The Philippines and Australia, 3.4% in South Korea, 2.8% in Taiwan, 1.6% in Thailand and Indonesia, 1.5% in China and Singapore, and 1.3% in Hong Kong. In the epicenter of worry, stock prices are down 2.1% in Stockholm, 1.0% in London, but [...]

Fresh Decline in European Share Prices after Better Tone in Asia

larrygreenberg — Thu, 17 May 2012 11:23:12 +0000

Asian markets were supported by the FOMC minutes and Japanese first-quarter GDP. Equities around the Pacific Rim rose 3.1% in The Philippines, 1.7% in Taiwan, 1.5% in China, and 0.9% in Japan. FOMC minutes released Wednesday indicated a preference not to stimulate further yet but a willingness to do so if outlook deteriorates appreciably. Japanese [...]

Iceland’s Interest Rate Hike

larrygreenberg — Wed, 16 May 2012 21:12:26 +0000

Many analysts were surprised by today’s announced increase of the Bank of Iceland’s 7-day collateralized rate to 5.5%. The three prior increases on March 21, November 2, and August 17, 2011 were by 25 basis points, and the escalating euro debt crisis dissuaded some from expecting any Icelandic move now. A statement on the Sedlabanki [...]

Pacific Rim Share Prices Clobbered on Escalating Greek Crisis

larrygreenberg — Wed, 16 May 2012 11:49:38 +0000

Equities fell 3.2% in Hong Kong, 3.1% in South Korea, 2.4% in Australia, 2.2% in Taiwan, 1.8% in India, 1.6% in Singapore, Indonesia and China, and 1.1% in Japan. The British Ftse and German Dax have lost 0.7% and 0.6%, but the Paris Cac is 0.7% firmer. Sterling reacted poorly to the Bank of England [...]

Last Effort to Avert Greek Election Do-over in June

larrygreenberg — Tue, 15 May 2012 11:46:28 +0000

Released European data overnight were mixed. The United States releases many economic indicators as well today. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande meet today, and there is a meeting too of EU finance ministers. The dollar has lost 0.3% against the Australian dollar, 0.2% versus the loonie and 0.1% against the yuan, euro and [...]

Rising Possibility of Greece Leaving EMU Sends Euro to Multi-Month Lows as Stocks Also Plunge

larrygreenberg — Mon, 14 May 2012 11:37:27 +0000

The euro fell to its weakest dollar level ($1.2861) since January 19 and lowest yen value (102.94) since February 16. Share prices have tumbled 2.4% in Paris, 2.2% in Frankfurt and 1.8% in London. Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields sank by seven and nine basis points. The 10-year Treasury futures suggests an opening [...]

Next Week

larrygreenberg — Fri, 11 May 2012 21:24:56 +0000

An interest rate meeting is scheduled next week in Iceland, and the FOMC releases minutes from its last meeting. EU finance ministers meet Monday and Tuesday, and the G7 leaders hold their annual summer summit at Camp David on Friday and Saturday. Important state elections in Germany’s most populous region, North Rhine Westphalia, are set [...]