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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 20 2009

2009-11-20T16:05:00.001+13:00

Big pull back in Global stocks

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 20th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong for most of the day as stocks around the world suffered from heavy profit taking and concerns of new bubbles in assets. Weekly Jobless claims were at forecasts of 505k whilst the November Philly Fed was stronger at 16 vs. 11.5 previously. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10332, S&P -15 points closing at 1094 and NASDAQ -36 points closing at 2156.

The Euro (EUR) was very heavy as USD strength and EUR/JPY selling that continued for much of the day. A slight reprieve at the end of the US session allowed the pair to reclaim the 1.4900 level. A much touted 1.48-1.51 DNT option is though to expire today which could allow for a break of the recent range next week. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4842 and a high of 1.4958 before closing at 1.4900. Looking ahead, October German PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.5% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency yesterday on risk aversion demand. Liquidation of AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY guided the USD/JPY below 89 Yen. Stock markets and US bond yields are the main factors affecting the Yen at the moment. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.63 and a high of 89.46 before closing the day around 88.95 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting today.

The Sterling (GBP) was under pressure on most pairs as the risk sensitive currency struggled in a souring global market. Oil was under pressure and continued bad press about UK banks weighed on the Pound. October Retail Sales were at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6604 and a high of 1.6744 before closing the day at 1.6640 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slumped for the second day as traders booked profit from the recent rally and commodities apart were very weak. AUD/JPY selling and a mixed technical outlook are beginning to weigh although should sentiment improve the Aussie is prone to bounce first. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9130 and a high of 0.9285 before closing the US session at 0.9180.

Oil & Gold (XAU) held up well as safe haven flows offset gains in the USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$1130 and high of USD$1146 before ending the New York session at USD$1141 an ounce. Weakened as investor sentiment turned 'risk off'. Crude Oil was down -$2.12 ending the New York session at $77.46.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4786	1.4808	1.4920	1.5016	1.5048
USD/JPY	88.36	88.64	89.00	89.75	90.60
GBP/USD	1.6516	1.6572	1.6640	1.6878	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.8971	0.9092	0.9180	0.9406	0.9476
XAU/USD	1118.00	1127	1141.00	1152.00	1165.00
OIL/USD	76.00	78.00	78.30	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4920

Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high)

Yen – 89.00

Initial support is located at 88.64 (Nov 19 low) followed by 88.36 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high).

Pound – 1.6640

Initial support at 1.6572 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.6516 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9180

Initial support at 0.9092 (Nov 6 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9337 (Nov 18 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1141

Initial support at 1127 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 high). Initial resistance is now at 1152 (Nov 18 high) followed by 1165 (1.618 of 985 - 1070.80 from 1026.60).

Oil – 78.30

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 19 2009

2009-11-19T19:30:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Gold Trades above $1150

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 19th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased for most of the day as the recent strength proved temporary and US stocks remained well supported near highs. Fed Speaker Bullard did little to help the USD with his comments that US rates may stay low until 2012. October CPI at 0.3% vs. 0.2% forecast. October Housing starts -10.6% vs. 1.9% previously. In US Stocks, DJIA -11 points closing at 10426, S&P -1 points closing at 1109 and NASDAQ +10 points closing at 2193. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 505k vs. 502k previously. Also released, November Philly Fed forecast at 12 vs. 11.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) was once again very strong as USD strength subsided and constant buying kept the single currency in demand. Good rallies in the EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP also provided solid support. September Current Account came in at -5.4bn vs. 0.6bn previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4868 and a high of 1.4992 before closing at 1.4965.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was a mixed bag as USD/JPY managed small gains but GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY remained on the back foot. Risk appetite is still strong but most pairs are sticking to well know ranges whilst the USD/JPY remains very quiet. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.99 and a high of 89.51 before closing the day around 89.40 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was sold aggressively against the EURO and USD as the MPC minutes showed a split in the vote of how much the QE asset purchase program should be extended. MPC Member Miles called for a greater amount of 40bn vs. the 25bn Pounds eventually agreed too. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6712 and a high of 1.6849 before closing the day at 1.6745 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.0% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied on the back of Euro's and Golds gains but was capped by weaker US stocks. The pair is consolidating gains as the market takes a breath from the relentless rallying over the past 2 weeks. Most AUD crosses have been treading water as fresh buying is being offset from profit taking. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9264 and a high of 0.9340 before closing the US session at 0.9295. Looking ahead, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks.

Oil & Gold (XAU) traded at fresh year highs above $1150 before settling on profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1135 and high of USD$1153 before ending the New York session at USD$1145 an ounce. Oil was higher on a drop in US crude Inventories. Crude Oil was up $0.40 ending the New York session at $79.50.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4786	1.4808	1.4950	1.5016	1.5048
USD/JPY	88.36	88.74	89.45	89.75	90.60
GBP/USD	1.6572	1.6670	1.6725	1.6878	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9211	0.9237	0.9290	0.9406	0.9476
XAU/USD	1118.00	1127	1143.00	1150.00	1165.00
OIL/USD	76.00	78.00	79.60	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4950

Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high)

Yen – 89.45

Initial support is located at 88.36 (Oct 9 low) followed by 88.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high).

Pound – 1.6725

Initial support at 1.6670 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1.6572 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9290

Initial support at 0.9237 (Nov 17 low) followed by the 0.9211 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9406 (Nov 16 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 '08 high).

Gold – 1143

Initial support at 1127 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 high). Initial resistance is now at 1150 (Key Level) followed by 1165 (1.618 of 985 - 1070.80 from 1026.60).

Oil – 79.60

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 18 2009

2009-11-18T21:51:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

EURO bows to resurgent USD

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) took charge of the market with Bernanke's comments being endorsed by ECB President Trichet to send the EURO lower and USD stronger across the board. Even as US stocks closed at year highs, risk was taken off the table as US data was weaker than expected. October Industrial Output was 0.1% vs. 0.4% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +30 points closing at 10437, S&P +1 points closing at 1110 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2203. Looking ahead, October Housing starts forecast at 0.6mn vs. 0.59mn previously and October Building Permits forecast at 0.58mn vs. 0.575mn previously. Also released, Weekly Oil Inventories is forecast at 1.2mn vs. 1.8mn previously. Also released, October Core CPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously m/m.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.5000 in early Asia before the mood soured and the pair fell back due to profit taking. This pullback turned in a rout in Europe with Trichet's comments that Bernanke's strong USD comments were 'very important'. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4805 and a high of 1.5001 before closing at 1.4875. looking ahead, September Current Account previously at -1.3bn.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the resurgent USD but was strong on the crosses as risk aversion from falling stocks saw AUD/JPY liquidation from recent highs. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are also treading water as the market trying to decipher the next direction. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.72 and a high of 89.56 before closing the day around 89.30 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was support on dips as EUR/GBP selling underpinned cable and buyers gained the upper hand. 1.7000 is the natural target for the bulls, last traded in August before the BoE started increasing the Asset Purchase program. October CPI was 1.5% vs. 1.4% y/y. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6753 and a high of 1.6876 before closing the day at 1.6820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC minutes forecast at 9-0 on recent meeting decisions.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very heavy as the market took profit from lofty heights after the RBA minutes failed to inspire. The minutes left the decision to raise rates in December open with further data releases look set to decide. Providing continued support however is the commodity rally and already wide AUD-USD interest rate differential. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9310 and a high of 0.9379 before closing the US session at 0.9236.

Oil & Gold (XAU) dipped with USD strength but was bought back up quickly underpinning the support the precious metal is receiving. Overall trading with a low of USD$1127 and high of USD$1145 before ending the New York session at USD$1143 an ounce. Tracked Stocks and Metals higher. Crude Oil was up $0.24 ending the New York session at $79.14.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4786	1.4808	1.4875	1.5016	1.5048
USD/JPY	88.00	88.36	89.25	89.75	90.60
GBP/USD	1.6572	1.6670	1.6820	1.6878	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9196	0.9211	0.9310	0.9406	0.9476
XAU/USD	1101.00	1118	1143.00	1143.60	1150.00
OIL/USD	76.00	78.00	79.50	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4875

Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high)

Yen – 89.25

Initial support is located at 88.36 (Oct 9 low) followed by 88.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high).

Pound – 1.6820

Initial support at 1.6670 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1.6572 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9310

Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9406 (Nov 16 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 '08 high).

Gold – 1143

Initial support at 1118 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1101 (Nov 13 high). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1150 (Big Level).

Oil – 79.50

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 17 2009

2009-11-17T19:57:00.000+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Bernanke Comments on Dollar

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 17th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot for most of the day as Global equities remained buoyant in the wake of the APEC meeting confirming stimulus and declining to comment on the USD. Fed Chief Bernanke did however support the dollar and for a short period in the US session the USD surged off fresh year lows as the market digested his comments. Doubts about the conviction of the FED to support the dollar though saw these gains pared back into the close with stock markets finishing at fresh Year highs. US retail Sales were strong at 1.4% in October vs. 0.9% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +136 points closing at 10406, S&P +15 points closing at 1109 and NASDAQ +29 points closing at 2197. Looking ahead, US October PPI is forecast at 0.6% vs. -0.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) had a wild trading day gaining heavily with stocks and oils but was pummeled lower on Bernanke's pro USD comments before reversing these losses to make fresh highs above 1.5000. October EU CPI was at 0.3% as forecast. EUR/JPY struggled to track the improved risk appetite as USD/JPY dived to month lows. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4879 and a high of 1.5018 before closing at 1.4975. looking ahead, September EU Trade Balance forecast at -0.9Bn vs. 1.0Bn previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was broadly strong as the USD/JPY melted on Dollar concerns below the 89 Yen level. Most crosses struggled to hold gains with even the risk trade AUD/JPY struggling to maintain gains whilst stocks were at year highs and gold continued to surge. Japan Q3 GDP at 1.2% vs. 0.7% forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.73 before closing the day around 89.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was very solid rallying up to fresh month highs above 1.6800 on continued cross recovery and generally strong risk appetite. EUR/GBP broke below 0.8900 support and GBP/JPY continued to test the 150 Yen level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6667 and a high of 1.6881 before closing the day at 1.6830 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October CPI is forecast at 1.4% vs. 1.1% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke above 0.9400 for fresh year highs as risk appetite and the weak USD pushed the commodity currency higher. Adding to the rally was Oil and golds large moves higher with the only risk stemming from the speed of the recent AUD rise and the technically overbought conditions this brings. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9315 and a high of 0.9408 before closing the US session at 0.9375. Looking ahead, RBA Minutes released from November's meeting are important for clues of December potential rate rise.

Oil & Gold (XAU) rallied with little reprieve all day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1122 and high of USD$1144 before ending the New York session at USD$1138 an ounce. Played catch up with commodities and general risk appetite. Crude Oil was up $2.55 ending the New York session at $78.90.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4786	1.4822	1.4975	1.5048	1.5063
USD/JPY	88.00	88.73	89.10	90.60	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6519	1.6572	1.6825	1.6843	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9196	0.9211	0.9375	0.9476	0.9637
XAU/USD	1095.00	1101	1138.00	1144.00	1150.00
OIL/USD	76.00	78.00	78.90	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4975

Initial support at 1.4822 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high)

Yen – 89.10

Initial support is located at 88.73 (Nov 16 low) followed by 88.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6825

Initial support at 1.6572 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.6519 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9375

Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (Jul 31 ' 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 24 '08 high).

Gold – 1138

Initial support at 1101 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1095 (Nov 9 high). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1150 (Big Level).

Oil – 78.90

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 16 2009

2009-11-16T21:06:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

USD Weakness Resumes

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gave back most of the gains from Thursday as US stocks rebounded and Gold led the charge higher. US Trade deficit in September widened to -$36.5bn vs. -$31bn forecast. University of Michigan Consume Sentiment was also weaker at 66 vs. 70.6 previously. In US Stocks, DJIA +73 points closing at 10270, S&P +6 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +18 points closing at 2167. Looking ahead, September Business Inventories forecast at -0.6% vs. -1.5% previously.

The Euro (EUR) Found support and recovered through the day to finish above the 1.4900 figure. Risk was tentatively put back on throughout the day although EUR/JPY struggled as USD/JPY losses matched the EUR/USD gains. EU GDP was slightly less than forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4826 and a high of 1.4936 before closing at 1.4915. looking ahead, October EU inflation is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the USD and was well supported against most pairs with investors less keen to buy crosses into the weekend. The 90 Yen level has been the key figure in the market recently with buyers below and sellers above creating a very tight range. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.47 and a high of 90.41 before closing the day around 89.63 in the New York session. UPDATE Q3 GDP at 1.2% vs. 0.75 forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied with the improvement in risk appetite after finding solid support inside the 1.65 figure on Thursday. The pair finished near 1.6700 with the EUR/GBP testing support at 0.8920 as the Pound recovery continued. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6572 and a high of 1.6705 before closing the day at 1.6690 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied the most of the majors as gold recovered and the high yielding pair took advantage of strong sentiment towards the AUD after recent strong economic data. The pair is still strongly correlated with the stock markets but dips are finding solid support keeping the bias higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9225 and a high of 0.9343 before closing the US session at 0.9341.

Oil & Gold (XAU) opened under pressure but found support near $1100 and recovered for the rest of the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1119 before ending the New York session at USD$1118 an ounce. Continued to slump as demand came into question. Crude Oil was down -$0.59 ending the New York session at $76.35.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4786	1.4822	1.4930	1.5048	1.5063
USD/JPY	89.20	89.46	89.60	90.60	90.86
GBP/USD	1.6519	1.6532	1.6710	1.6843	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9196	0.9211	0.9340	0.9370	0.9476
XAU/USD	1087.00	1095	1125.00	1129.00	1136.00
OIL/USD	74.00	75.00	76.80	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4930

Initial support at 1.4822 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 OF 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high)

Yen – 89.60

Initial support is located at 89.46 (Nov 13 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6710

Initial support at 1.6516 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9340

Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9370 (Nov 12 High) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 ' 08 high).

Gold – 1125

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985).

Oil – 76.80

Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 13 2009

2009-11-13T23:56:00.000+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

USD strong as Stocks pull back

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained across the board as USD shorts covered on the back of falling stocks and comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the global recovery road will be bumpy. Also supporting the dollar was very weak Oil and comments from US Treasurer Geithner about a strong US dollar policy and the cutting of US deficits. Weekly Jobless claims were 502k vs. 510k forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10197, S&P -11 points closing at 1087 and NASDAQ -17 points closing at 2149. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -31bn vs. -30bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) was heavily sold against the greenback and the Pound as Oil and stocks slumped in the US session. EUR/JPY held up well though as the Yen was also sold against the USD quite aggressively. EUR/GBP slipped back through 0.9000 as the recent pound weakness provided a buffer against further losses overnight. September Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% was slightly weaker at 0.3%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4820 and a high of 1.5018 before closing at 1.4850. looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.3% previously. EU Q3 GDP forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the USD as the key 90 Yen level was broken on the topside and senior MOF officials stated that exit strategies were still some time away as the Japanese consumer remains weak. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.63 and a high of 90.63 before closing the day around 90.35 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Industrial Output previously at 1.4%.

The Sterling (GBP) held up surprisingly well to USD strength with EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying offsetting to keep cable relatively unchanged. Ongoing support from M&A activity and general investment in to UK firms is providing an undercurrent of support for the Pound. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6513 and a high of 1.6629 before closing the day at 1.6570 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hurt the most as the market was caught wrong footed after surging to fresh year highs in Asia to 0.9370 on the back of strong October Employment numbers showing +24k jobs vs. -10k forecast. When US stocks turned south and Oil crumbled the market liquidated and reversed the days direction to plumb 4 day lows. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9210 and a high of 0.9372 before closing the US session at 0.9230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) pulled back nearly $20 an ounce from fresh year highs as the USD strengthened across the board. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1123 before ending the New York session at USD$1104 an ounce. Was sold heavily after US oil inventories rose more than expected. Crude Oil was down -$1.73 ending the New York session at $77.55.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4800	1.4811	1.4850	1.5063	1.5163
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	90.35	90.60	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6519	1.6532	1.6580	1.6843	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9196	0.9211	0.9255	0.9476	0.9637
XAU/USD	1087.00	1095	1105.00	1129.00	1136.00
OIL/USD	74.00	75.00	76.90	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4850

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4800 (Key Level). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 90.35

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6580

Initial support at 1.6532 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6519 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9255

Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 31 high).

Gold – 1105

Oil – 76.90

Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 11 2009

2009-11-11T21:33:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Markets Consolidate Gains

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained in Asia as profit taking set in but this proved short lived as stocks in the US eked out small gains to bring the rally into its 7^th day. Little data was released but five Fed officials did speak throughout the day with the general message of prolonged low rates helping to support the market on dips. In US Stocks, DJIA +20 points closing at 10246, S&P +0 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ -3 points closing at 2151. Looking ahead, Bank holiday for Veterans Day.

The Euro (EUR) struggled to hold above 1.5000 as profit taking in Asia and Oil losses in the US session capped gains. Support at 1.4950 emerged and the pair kept to a tight range for the rest of the day. EUR/JPY selling ahead of 135 Yen is also posing a challenge for the bulls. November German Zew Survey at 51.1 vs. 55 forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4937 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4980. looking ahead, French Bank Holiday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept to a very tight range around the 90 level as bouts of USD weakness was countered by fresh cross demand. Support at 89.70 is proving solid but attempts above the 90 level are equally short lived. AUD/JPY remains well supported with most of the volatility as usual seen on the GBP/JPY. October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.67 and a high of 90.21 before closing the day around 89.80 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Machine Orders are forecast at 2.9% vs. 0.5% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was shunted lower at the start of Europe on the back of a Fitch sovereign downgrade warning. The pair spent the rest of the day recovering off lows. September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn came in weaker at -7.194bn. EUR/GBP briefly popped above 0.9000 but later slipped back below the key handle. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6600 and a high of 1.6791 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Claimant Count forecast at 20k vs. 20.8k previously. September ILO Unemployment forecast at 8.0% vs. 7.9% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated Monday's gains nicely with dips being well supported and risk appetite remaining strong. October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously. AUD/NZD is a cross in play with the pair trying to break through resistance at 1.2650 on route to the key 1.3000 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9254 and a high of 0.9326 before closing the US session at 0.9300. Looking ahead, November Consumer Confidence previously at 1.7%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was quiet but closed above the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1096 and high of USD$1109 before ending the New York session at USD$1103 an ounce. Came off on profit taking and the downgrading of storms threatening production. Crude Oil was down -$1.13 ending the New York session at $78.30.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4811	1.4853	1.4975	1.5063	1.5163
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	89.75	90.86	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6467	1.6519	1.6735	1.6843	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9092	0.9196	0.9295	0.9329	0.9476
XAU/USD	1080.00	1087	1103.00	1111.00	1129.00
OIL/USD	75.00	78.00	79.00	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4975

Initial support at 1.4853 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.4811 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.75

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6735

Initial support at 1.6519 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9295

Initial support at 0.9196 (Nov 9 low) followed by the 0.9092 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high).

Gold – 1103

Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1111 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80).

Oil – 79.00

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 10 2009

2009-11-10T18:50:00.000+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Global Stocks Rally, USD Weak

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a global stock rally led most pairs to gain against the greenback as investors searched for higher yielding investments. AUD and NZD were especially strong with the highest interest rates of the major currencies. Gold rallied past $1100 for fresh all time highs. In US Stocks, DJIA +203 points closing at 10226, S&P +23 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +41 points closing at 2154. Looking ahead, FOMC members Yellen and Lockhart speak.

The Euro (EUR) grinded higher for most of the day as the USD was under pressure finally breaking above the key 1.5000 level in the US session on remarks from ECB's Stark that in the December meeting they will discuss exit strategies. September German Trade at 9.9bn vs. 11.5bn forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4852 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4995. looking ahead, November ZEW Index forecast at 55 vs. 56 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was unchanged against the USD trading around the 90 Yen level. Crosses were all higher as risk appetite kept AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY in strong demand. EUR/JPY found strong resistance at 135 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.72 and a high of 90.29 before closing the day around 89.90 in the New York session. UPDATE October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) surged past Friday's high as the market sold the USD aggressively in Asia. The pair struggled to hold above 1.6800 and pulled back to the low 1.67's by the end of New York. EUR/GBP hit 6 week lows below 0.8900. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6615 and a high of 1.6846 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn vs. -6.24bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong along with its cousin the New Zealand Dollar. The Aussie opened above 0.9200 and rallied as Home Finance surged 5% in October. AUD/NZD reversed from above 1.26 as Kiwi rebounded nicely from last weeks sell off. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9194 and a high of 0.9321 before closing the US session at 0.9290. UPDATE October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) traded at fresh year highs above $1110 on continued USD weakness. Overall trading with a low of USD$1095 and high of USD$1111 before ending the New York session at USD$1102 an ounce. Gained with the large rally in US stocks. Crude Oil was up $2.37 ending the New York session at $79.80.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4702	1.4811	1.4995	1.5063	1.5163
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	89.85	90.86	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6467	1.6617	1.6755	1.7043	1.7332
AUD/USD	0.9026	0.9092	0.9300	0.9329	0.9476
XAU/USD	1080.00	1087	1103.00	1129.00	1136.00
OIL/USD	75.00	78.00	79.30	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4995

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.85

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6755

Initial support at 1.6617 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.7043 (Aug 5 high) followed by 1.7332 (50% retrace of 2.1161 - 1.3503).

Australian Dollar – 0.9300

Initial support at 0.9092 (Nov 6 low) followed by the 0.9026 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high).

Gold – 1103

Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985).

Oil – 79.30

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 9 2009

2009-11-09T16:26:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

US Unemployment Rate passes 10%

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a surprise jump in the October Unemployment Rate to above the psychological 10% barrier kept the rebound in investor confidence contained on Friday with the stock market ending unchanged and the Dollar on the back foot. The actually figure of -190k was only slightly worse than forecasts of -175k but enough for commentators to agree that the Fed will not be raising rates in the next 6 months. In US Stocks, DJIA +17 points closing at 10023, S&P +3 points closing at 1069 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2112.

The Euro (EUR) traded briefly above the 1.4900 level as traders shrugged off the disappointing US jobs data to focus on the USD and US FED rates. Without heavy selling in the equity markets the Euro remained firm and closed at the 1.4850 level. EUR/JPY did struggle however as the Yen was broadly strong. September Industrial Orders were at 0.9% vs. 2.1% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4815 and a high of 1.4913 before closing at 1.4846. looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 11.5bn vs. 10.6bn previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained heavily against the dollar as the market began to once again favor the USD as the funding currency of choice. A weak US jobs number and lackluster equities meant crosses were at the mercy of the major and AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY slipped. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.62 and a high of 90.85 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was very contained tracking the euro down then up again after the US data but sticking to a tight range. The Pair is struggling to gain above the 1.6600 level but is finding solid support below 1.6500. EUR/GBP is also staying in a tight range within the 0.8900 figure waiting for further direction. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6521 and a high of 1.6635 before closing the day at 1.6615 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as the market seized upon hawkish comments in the Quarterly Monetary Policy statement to argue for faster rate rises. Also noted in the report was the help that the strong AUD was having in keeping inflation down. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9093 and a high of 0.9197 before closing the US session at 0.9174.

Oil & Gold (XAU) broke above the $1100 level briefly in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1088 and high of USD$1101 before ending the New York session at USD$1095 an ounce. Fell heavily on concerns US consumer demand will be weaker as Unemployment grows. Crude Oil was down $2.19 ending the New York session at $77.43.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4702	1.4811	1.4870	1.4927	1.4959
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	89.85	91.32	91.62
GBP/USD	1.6402	1.6467	1.6650	1.6693	1.6742
AUD/USD	0.8971	0.9026	0.9210	0.9218	0.9329
XAU/USD	1080.00	1084	1098.00	1101.00	1107.00
OIL/USD	75.00	76.50	77.80	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4870

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.4959 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.85

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6650

Initial support at 1.6467 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9210

Initial support at 0.9026 (Nov 5 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).

Gold – 1098

Initial support at 1084 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1101 (Nov 6 high ) followed by 1107 (905.10 plus 1.618 of 864.97-990.00).

Oil – 77.80

Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 6 2009

2009-11-06T08:32:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

US Unemployment Data Looming

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 6th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with stocks rallying for a 4^th day the market went back into 'risk on' mode and the USD was on the back foot. Weekly Jobless claims were 512k vs. 530k previously. Q3 Productivity at 9.5% was very strong vs. 6.5% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +203 points closing at 10005, S&P +20 points closing at 1066 and NASDAQ +49 points closing at 2105. Looking ahead, October Non Farm Payrolls forecast at -175k vs. -263k previously. The October Unemployment rate is forecast at 9.9% vs. 9.8% previously.

The Euro (EUR) continued to find strength on dips as US stocks soared and the ECB was relatively upbeat at their ECB meeting were they held rates at 1.0%. The pair failed to track the gains completely on Wall st. as the market pauses ahead of the US Unemployment data tonight. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4810 and a high of 1.4920 before closing at 1.4880. looking ahead, September Industrial Orders are forecast at 1% vs. 1.45 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong is Asia as the Nikkei fell but then was sold for most of the day as the US had its biggest rally in 2 months. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY led the rebound but the market was well contained again as the event risk of the NFP today contained risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.97 and a high of 90.84 before closing the day around 90.75 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Leading Indicators previously at 0.8%.

The Sterling (GBP) shot higher as the BoE increased the Asset purchase program by 25bn vs. 50bn forecast. The BoE held rates at 0.5%. The market found resistance above 1.6600 and settled below the figure. EUR/GBP support was in the low 0.89's. GBP/JPY reclaimed the 150 Yen level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6639 and a high of 1.6464 before closing the day at 1.6580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK PPI Output prices are forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.5% m/m previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) good data could not help the Aussie rally in Asia as AUD/JPY selling dragged the pair to day lows before a change in sentiment pushed the pair higher once again in the US. September Trade Balance at -1.85bn vs. -2.1bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9023 and a high of 0.9127 before closing the US session at 0.9105. Looking ahead, RBA Monetary Policy Statement.

Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated gains settling just under $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1083 and high of USD$1095 before ending the New York session at USD$1091 an ounce. Fell back below $80 a barrel on profit taking after recent 3 day rally. Crude Oil was down $0.78 ending the New York session at $79.62.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4626	1.4702	1.4875	1.4917	1.4927
USD/JPY	89.20	89.99	90.85	91.32	91.62
GBP/USD	1.6241	1.6402	1.6575	1.6693	1.6742
AUD/USD	0.8907	0.8971	0.9110	0.9144	0.9218
XAU/USD	1055.00	1080	1091.00	1097.00	1100.00
OIL/USD	78.00	78.50	79.80	81.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4875

Initial support at 1.4702 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.4626 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4917 (Nov 5 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)

Yen – 90.85

Initial support is located at 89.99 (Nov 5 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6575

Initial support at 1.6402 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.6241 (Oct 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9110

Initial support at 0.8971 (Nov 4 low) followed by the 0.8907 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9144 (Nov 4 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high).

Gold – 1091

Initial support at 1080 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1055 (Nov 3 high). Initial resistance is now at 1097 (Nov 4 high ) followed by 1100 (Psychological level).

Oil – 79.80

Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 81 (Nov 5 high) followed by 82 (October High).

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