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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 13 2009

2009-11-13T23:56:00.000+13:00

USD strong as Stocks pull back

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained across the board as USD shorts covered on the back of falling stocks and comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the global recovery road will be bumpy. Also supporting the dollar was very weak Oil and comments from US Treasurer Geithner about a strong US dollar policy and the cutting of US deficits. Weekly Jobless claims were 502k vs. 510k forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10197, S&P -11 points closing at 1087 and NASDAQ -17 points closing at 2149. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -31bn vs. -30bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) was heavily sold against the greenback and the Pound as Oil and stocks slumped in the US session. EUR/JPY held up well though as the Yen was also sold against the USD quite aggressively. EUR/GBP slipped back through 0.9000 as the recent pound weakness provided a buffer against further losses overnight. September Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% was slightly weaker at 0.3%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4820 and a high of 1.5018 before closing at 1.4850. looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.3% previously. EU Q3 GDP forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the USD as the key 90 Yen level was broken on the topside and senior MOF officials stated that exit strategies were still some time away as the Japanese consumer remains weak. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.63 and a high of 90.63 before closing the day around 90.35 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Industrial Output previously at 1.4%.

The Sterling (GBP) held up surprisingly well to USD strength with EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying offsetting to keep cable relatively unchanged. Ongoing support from M&A activity and general investment in to UK firms is providing an undercurrent of support for the Pound. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6513 and a high of 1.6629 before closing the day at 1.6570 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hurt the most as the market was caught wrong footed after surging to fresh year highs in Asia to 0.9370 on the back of strong October Employment numbers showing +24k jobs vs. -10k forecast. When US stocks turned south and Oil crumbled the market liquidated and reversed the days direction to plumb 4 day lows. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9210 and a high of 0.9372 before closing the US session at 0.9230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) pulled back nearly $20 an ounce from fresh year highs as the USD strengthened across the board. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1123 before ending the New York session at USD$1104 an ounce. Was sold heavily after US oil inventories rose more than expected. Crude Oil was down -$1.73 ending the New York session at $77.55.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4800	1.4811	1.4850	1.5063	1.5163
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	90.35	90.60	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6519	1.6532	1.6580	1.6843	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9196	0.9211	0.9255	0.9476	0.9637
XAU/USD	1087.00	1095	1105.00	1129.00	1136.00
OIL/USD	74.00	75.00	76.90	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4850

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4800 (Key Level). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 90.35

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6580

Initial support at 1.6532 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6519 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9255

Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 31 high).

Gold – 1105

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985).

Oil – 76.90

Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 11 2009

2009-11-11T21:33:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Markets Consolidate Gains

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained in Asia as profit taking set in but this proved short lived as stocks in the US eked out small gains to bring the rally into its 7^th day. Little data was released but five Fed officials did speak throughout the day with the general message of prolonged low rates helping to support the market on dips. In US Stocks, DJIA +20 points closing at 10246, S&P +0 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ -3 points closing at 2151. Looking ahead, Bank holiday for Veterans Day.

The Euro (EUR) struggled to hold above 1.5000 as profit taking in Asia and Oil losses in the US session capped gains. Support at 1.4950 emerged and the pair kept to a tight range for the rest of the day. EUR/JPY selling ahead of 135 Yen is also posing a challenge for the bulls. November German Zew Survey at 51.1 vs. 55 forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4937 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4980. looking ahead, French Bank Holiday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept to a very tight range around the 90 level as bouts of USD weakness was countered by fresh cross demand. Support at 89.70 is proving solid but attempts above the 90 level are equally short lived. AUD/JPY remains well supported with most of the volatility as usual seen on the GBP/JPY. October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.67 and a high of 90.21 before closing the day around 89.80 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Machine Orders are forecast at 2.9% vs. 0.5% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was shunted lower at the start of Europe on the back of a Fitch sovereign downgrade warning. The pair spent the rest of the day recovering off lows. September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn came in weaker at -7.194bn. EUR/GBP briefly popped above 0.9000 but later slipped back below the key handle. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6600 and a high of 1.6791 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Claimant Count forecast at 20k vs. 20.8k previously. September ILO Unemployment forecast at 8.0% vs. 7.9% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated Monday's gains nicely with dips being well supported and risk appetite remaining strong. October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously. AUD/NZD is a cross in play with the pair trying to break through resistance at 1.2650 on route to the key 1.3000 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9254 and a high of 0.9326 before closing the US session at 0.9300. Looking ahead, November Consumer Confidence previously at 1.7%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was quiet but closed above the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1096 and high of USD$1109 before ending the New York session at USD$1103 an ounce. Came off on profit taking and the downgrading of storms threatening production. Crude Oil was down -$1.13 ending the New York session at $78.30.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4811	1.4853	1.4975	1.5063	1.5163
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	89.75	90.86	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6467	1.6519	1.6735	1.6843	1.7043
AUD/USD	0.9092	0.9196	0.9295	0.9329	0.9476
XAU/USD	1080.00	1087	1103.00	1111.00	1129.00
OIL/USD	75.00	78.00	79.00	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4975

Initial support at 1.4853 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.4811 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.75

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6735

Initial support at 1.6519 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9295

Initial support at 0.9196 (Nov 9 low) followed by the 0.9092 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high).

Gold – 1103

Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1111 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80).

Oil – 79.00

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 10 2009

2009-11-10T18:50:00.000+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Global Stocks Rally, USD Weak

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a global stock rally led most pairs to gain against the greenback as investors searched for higher yielding investments. AUD and NZD were especially strong with the highest interest rates of the major currencies. Gold rallied past $1100 for fresh all time highs. In US Stocks, DJIA +203 points closing at 10226, S&P +23 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +41 points closing at 2154. Looking ahead, FOMC members Yellen and Lockhart speak.

The Euro (EUR) grinded higher for most of the day as the USD was under pressure finally breaking above the key 1.5000 level in the US session on remarks from ECB's Stark that in the December meeting they will discuss exit strategies. September German Trade at 9.9bn vs. 11.5bn forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4852 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4995. looking ahead, November ZEW Index forecast at 55 vs. 56 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was unchanged against the USD trading around the 90 Yen level. Crosses were all higher as risk appetite kept AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY in strong demand. EUR/JPY found strong resistance at 135 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.72 and a high of 90.29 before closing the day around 89.90 in the New York session. UPDATE October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) surged past Friday's high as the market sold the USD aggressively in Asia. The pair struggled to hold above 1.6800 and pulled back to the low 1.67's by the end of New York. EUR/GBP hit 6 week lows below 0.8900. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6615 and a high of 1.6846 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn vs. -6.24bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong along with its cousin the New Zealand Dollar. The Aussie opened above 0.9200 and rallied as Home Finance surged 5% in October. AUD/NZD reversed from above 1.26 as Kiwi rebounded nicely from last weeks sell off. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9194 and a high of 0.9321 before closing the US session at 0.9290. UPDATE October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) traded at fresh year highs above $1110 on continued USD weakness. Overall trading with a low of USD$1095 and high of USD$1111 before ending the New York session at USD$1102 an ounce. Gained with the large rally in US stocks. Crude Oil was up $2.37 ending the New York session at $79.80.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4702	1.4811	1.4995	1.5063	1.5163
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	89.85	90.86	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6467	1.6617	1.6755	1.7043	1.7332
AUD/USD	0.9026	0.9092	0.9300	0.9329	0.9476
XAU/USD	1080.00	1087	1103.00	1129.00	1136.00
OIL/USD	75.00	78.00	79.30	80.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4995

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.85

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6755

Initial support at 1.6617 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.7043 (Aug 5 high) followed by 1.7332 (50% retrace of 2.1161 - 1.3503).

Australian Dollar – 0.9300

Initial support at 0.9092 (Nov 6 low) followed by the 0.9026 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high).

Gold – 1103

Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985).

Oil – 79.30

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 9 2009

2009-11-09T16:26:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

US Unemployment Rate passes 10%

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a surprise jump in the October Unemployment Rate to above the psychological 10% barrier kept the rebound in investor confidence contained on Friday with the stock market ending unchanged and the Dollar on the back foot. The actually figure of -190k was only slightly worse than forecasts of -175k but enough for commentators to agree that the Fed will not be raising rates in the next 6 months. In US Stocks, DJIA +17 points closing at 10023, S&P +3 points closing at 1069 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2112.

The Euro (EUR) traded briefly above the 1.4900 level as traders shrugged off the disappointing US jobs data to focus on the USD and US FED rates. Without heavy selling in the equity markets the Euro remained firm and closed at the 1.4850 level. EUR/JPY did struggle however as the Yen was broadly strong. September Industrial Orders were at 0.9% vs. 2.1% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4815 and a high of 1.4913 before closing at 1.4846. looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 11.5bn vs. 10.6bn previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained heavily against the dollar as the market began to once again favor the USD as the funding currency of choice. A weak US jobs number and lackluster equities meant crosses were at the mercy of the major and AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY slipped. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.62 and a high of 90.85 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was very contained tracking the euro down then up again after the US data but sticking to a tight range. The Pair is struggling to gain above the 1.6600 level but is finding solid support below 1.6500. EUR/GBP is also staying in a tight range within the 0.8900 figure waiting for further direction. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6521 and a high of 1.6635 before closing the day at 1.6615 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as the market seized upon hawkish comments in the Quarterly Monetary Policy statement to argue for faster rate rises. Also noted in the report was the help that the strong AUD was having in keeping inflation down. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9093 and a high of 0.9197 before closing the US session at 0.9174.

Oil & Gold (XAU) broke above the $1100 level briefly in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1088 and high of USD$1101 before ending the New York session at USD$1095 an ounce. Fell heavily on concerns US consumer demand will be weaker as Unemployment grows. Crude Oil was down $2.19 ending the New York session at $77.43.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4702	1.4811	1.4870	1.4927	1.4959
USD/JPY	89.20	89.62	89.85	91.32	91.62
GBP/USD	1.6402	1.6467	1.6650	1.6693	1.6742
AUD/USD	0.8971	0.9026	0.9210	0.9218	0.9329
XAU/USD	1080.00	1084	1098.00	1101.00	1107.00
OIL/USD	75.00	76.50	77.80	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4870

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.4959 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.85

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6650

Initial support at 1.6467 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9210

Initial support at 0.9026 (Nov 5 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).

Gold – 1098

Initial support at 1084 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1101 (Nov 6 high ) followed by 1107 (905.10 plus 1.618 of 864.97-990.00).

Oil – 77.80

Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 6 2009

2009-11-06T08:32:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

US Unemployment Data Looming

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 6th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with stocks rallying for a 4^th day the market went back into 'risk on' mode and the USD was on the back foot. Weekly Jobless claims were 512k vs. 530k previously. Q3 Productivity at 9.5% was very strong vs. 6.5% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +203 points closing at 10005, S&P +20 points closing at 1066 and NASDAQ +49 points closing at 2105. Looking ahead, October Non Farm Payrolls forecast at -175k vs. -263k previously. The October Unemployment rate is forecast at 9.9% vs. 9.8% previously.

The Euro (EUR) continued to find strength on dips as US stocks soared and the ECB was relatively upbeat at their ECB meeting were they held rates at 1.0%. The pair failed to track the gains completely on Wall st. as the market pauses ahead of the US Unemployment data tonight. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4810 and a high of 1.4920 before closing at 1.4880. looking ahead, September Industrial Orders are forecast at 1% vs. 1.45 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong is Asia as the Nikkei fell but then was sold for most of the day as the US had its biggest rally in 2 months. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY led the rebound but the market was well contained again as the event risk of the NFP today contained risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.97 and a high of 90.84 before closing the day around 90.75 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Leading Indicators previously at 0.8%.

The Sterling (GBP) shot higher as the BoE increased the Asset purchase program by 25bn vs. 50bn forecast. The BoE held rates at 0.5%. The market found resistance above 1.6600 and settled below the figure. EUR/GBP support was in the low 0.89's. GBP/JPY reclaimed the 150 Yen level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6639 and a high of 1.6464 before closing the day at 1.6580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK PPI Output prices are forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.5% m/m previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) good data could not help the Aussie rally in Asia as AUD/JPY selling dragged the pair to day lows before a change in sentiment pushed the pair higher once again in the US. September Trade Balance at -1.85bn vs. -2.1bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9023 and a high of 0.9127 before closing the US session at 0.9105. Looking ahead, RBA Monetary Policy Statement.

Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated gains settling just under $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1083 and high of USD$1095 before ending the New York session at USD$1091 an ounce. Fell back below $80 a barrel on profit taking after recent 3 day rally. Crude Oil was down $0.78 ending the New York session at $79.62.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4626	1.4702	1.4875	1.4917	1.4927
USD/JPY	89.20	89.99	90.85	91.32	91.62
GBP/USD	1.6241	1.6402	1.6575	1.6693	1.6742
AUD/USD	0.8907	0.8971	0.9110	0.9144	0.9218
XAU/USD	1055.00	1080	1091.00	1097.00	1100.00
OIL/USD	78.00	78.50	79.80	81.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4875

Initial support at 1.4702 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.4626 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4917 (Nov 5 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)

Yen – 90.85

Initial support is located at 89.99 (Nov 5 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6575

Initial support at 1.6402 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.6241 (Oct 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9110

Initial support at 0.8971 (Nov 4 low) followed by the 0.8907 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9144 (Nov 4 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high).

Gold – 1091

Initial support at 1080 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1055 (Nov 3 high). Initial resistance is now at 1097 (Nov 4 high ) followed by 1100 (Psychological level).

Oil – 79.80

Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 81 (Nov 5 high) followed by 82 (October High).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 5 2009

2009-11-05T22:33:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

FED remains Dovish, USD Weak

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot as stocks rallied around the world and the Federal Reserve left rates at 0.25% and stating that rates would remain low for an extended period of time. ADP October Employment Report was -203k vs. -188k previously. Also released, ISM Services forecast at 50.6 vs. 51.6 forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +30 points closing at 9802, S&P +1 points closing at 1046 and NASDAQ -2 points closing at 2055. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 523k vs. 530k previously.

The Euro (EUR) rallied for most of the day on continued strength in commodities and a rebound in stocks. September PPI was as forecast at -0.4%. EUR/JPY enjoyed solid gains although a late sell off in stocks induced profit taking. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4701 and a high of 1.4911 before closing at 1.4880. Looking ahead, ECB rate announcement forecast to remain at 1.0%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very weak as the crosses began to rally and technical's turned against the Yen. USD/JPY struggled to hold above 91 Yen on a mixed response to the FOMC but remains supported on dips. EUR/JPY returned to the 135 figure. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.03 and a high of 91.34 before closing the day around 90.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied above 1.6500 on improved risk appetite and strong GBP/JPY buying. October PMI Services was 56.9 vs. 55.4 previously. 1.6600 capped the topside but the market is well supported ahead of today's BoE meeting. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6600 and a high of 1.6399 before closing the day at 1.6550 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BoE Rate meeting. Also released, September Industrial Production forecast at 1% vs. -2.5% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was dented in Asia from poor September Retail Sales of -0.2% vs. +0.4% forecast. The dip below 0.9000 proved short lived and when the market continued to push higher the Aussie rebounded. AUD/JPY enjoyed the Yen weakness combined with the ongoing rally in gold. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8970 and a high of 0.9146 before closing the US session at 0.9105. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -2100mln vs. -1524mln previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) continued to push higher on yesterdays momentum nearing the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1079 and high of USD$1098 before ending the New York session at USD$1092 an ounce. Broke above $80 a barrel as the rally accelerated. Crude Oil was up $0.80 ending the New York session at $80.40.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4581	1.4626	1.4875	1.4909	1.4927
USD/JPY	89.20	89.87	90.80	91.62	92.32
GBP/USD	1.6126	1.6241	1.6560	1.6604	1.6693
AUD/USD	0.8866	0.8907	0.9100	0.9144	0.9218
XAU/USD	1035.00	1055	1091.00	1100.00	1114.00
OIL/USD	78.00	78.50	80.40	81.00	82.00

Euro – 1.4875

Initial support at 1.4626 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1.4581 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4909 (Nov 4 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)

Yen – 90.80

Initial support is located at 89.87 (Nov 3 low) followed by 89.20 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.62 (Oct 29 high) followed by 92.32 (Oct 27 high).

Pound – 1.6560

Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6141(Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9100

Initial support at 0.8907 (Nov 2 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9144 (Nov 4 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high).

Gold – 1091

Initial support at 1055 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1035 (Oct 30 high). Initial resistance is now at 1100 (Key level ) followed by 1114 (1.382 of 930.34 to 1024.28 from 985).

Oil – 80.40

Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 81 (Nov 5 high) followed by 82 (October High).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 3 2009

2009-11-03T23:02:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

US Manufacturing expands

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 3^rd November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed as stocks remained volatile with good data not generating substantial gains in the stock markets. October ISM Manufacturing was 55.7 vs. 53 forecast. September Pending Home Sales gained 6.1%. The Dollar hit day highs at the start of Asia as the market opened Monday on a very shaky footing. In US Stocks, DJIA +76 points closing at 9789, S&P +7 points closing at 1043 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2049. Looking ahead, September Factory Orders are forecast at 0.8% vs. -0.8% previously.

The Euro (EUR) tested below 1.4700 in Asia but rebounded well as stocks lifted off lows and China's PMI at 55 showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months. The rally continued on similar data in the US before stocks once again came under pressure and pushed the Euro lower. EUR/JPY was especially volatile rallying from 131 to test 134 in New York. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and a high of 1.4847 before closing at 1.4765.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely volatile with sharp selling in thin volume at the start of Asia leading to a test of low 89 Yen area before bouncing for the rest of the day. Crosses exaggerated the movement with all having 3+ Yen ranges. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.18 and a high of 90.72 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in Japan.

The Sterling (GBP) was pressured at the start of the European session as the market focused on propsed UK bank break up plan and potential for the BOE to expand QE by up to 50bn pounds more on Thursday. October PMI Manufacturing at 53.7 vs. 50.1 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6327 and a high of 1.6481 before closing the day at 1.6395 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) touched fresh multi-week lows at .8905 before rebounding with the improving sentiment and manufacturing PMI's around the world. The commodity currency also enjoyed gains from the bounce in Oil and Gold seen overnight. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8904 and a high of 0.9125 before closing the US session at 0.9040. Looking ahead, RBA Interest rate meeting forecast to raise rates to 3.5% from 3.25% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced as the USD weakened over the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1041 and high of USD$1063 before ending the New York session at USD$1059 an ounce. Also bounced on improved global manufacturing data. Crude Oil was up $1.13 ending the New York session at $78.13.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4646	1.4683	1.4770	1.4859	1.4927
USD/JPY	88.01	88.84	90.35	90.69	91.82
GBP/USD	1.6252	1.6330	1.6400	1.6604	1.6693
AUD/USD	0.8760	0.8866	0.9040	0.9218	0.9329
XAU/USD	1026.00	1035	1058.00	1067.00	1070.00
OIL/USD	75.25	76.20	78.20	78.50	80.00

Euro – 1.4770

Initial support at 1.4683 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.4646 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)

Yen – 90.35

Initial support is located at 88.84 (Oct 14 low) followed by 88.01 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.69 (Nov 2 high) followed by 91.82 (Oct 28 high).

Pound – 1.6400

Initial support at 1.6330 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1.6252 (Oct 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9040

Initial support at 0.8866 (Oct 7 low) followed by the 0.8760 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).

Gold – 1058

Initial support at 1035 (Oct 30 low) followed by 1026 (Oct 29 high). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high).

Oil – 78.20

Initial support at 76.20 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.25 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78.50 (previous support) followed by 80 (Major Level).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Nov 2 2009

2009-11-02T22:01:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Dark Clouds Return, Dollar Gains

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2^nd November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong as risk aversion came back into the market as concerns about CIT bankruptcy and weak personal spending -0.5% in September sent US stock markets down over 2.5%. Also of note to traders was the largest jump in the VIX index this year, up over 20% on the day. In US Stocks, DJIA +199 points closing at 9712, S&P -29 points closing at 1036 and NASDAQ -52 points closing at 2045. Looking ahead, October ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 53 vs. 52.6 previously.

The Euro (EUR) after opening above 1.4800 in Asia the rebound stalled and profit taking turned in heavy Euro selling as US stocks fell heavily. October EU Inflation was -0.1% y/y as forecast. EU Unemployment Rate was 9.7% as forecast in September. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4712 and a high of 1.4858 before closing at 1.4713. Looking ahead, October PMI Manufacturing is forecast 50.7 vs. 49.3 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was once again the strongest currency outpacing the USD as the safe haven of choice when heavy unwinding of crosses dragged the major below the Key 90 Yen level. BOJ held at 0.1% but cut back the corporate bond buying program. September Unemployment at 5.3% vs. 5.5% forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.93 and a high of 91.57 before closing the day around 90.00 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) held up better than most risk currencies but was still on the back foot as GBP/JPY selling weighed. October Nationwide House Prices were at 0.4% vs. 0.9% previously. Support at 1.6500 finally gave way and the pair finished below 1.6450. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6410 and a high of 1.6578 before closing the day at 1.6415 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October PMI Manufacturing forecast at 50 vs. 49.5.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was down sharply after opening above 0.9150 but ending below the key 0.9000 level. The markets still trade the AUD with a strong correlation to equities, and even the spectra of a rate rise as Tuesday's RBA meeting failed to provide much support. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8980 and a high of 0.9180 before closing the US session at 0.8995.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was stronger than other commodities as fresh safe haven demand was sparked in a financial based risk aversion mood. Overall trading with a low of USD$1035 and high of USD$1049 before ending the New York session at USD$1045 an ounce. Was sold heavily on risk aversion and traders second guessing the strength of the stimulated US economy. Crude Oil was down $2.87 ending the New York session at $77.00.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4646	1.4686	1.4730	1.4859	1.4927
USD/JPY	89.28	89.93	90.00	91.82	92.53
GBP/USD	1.6252	1.6339	1.6450	1.6604	1.6693
AUD/USD	0.8866	0.8944	0.9015	0.9218	0.9329
XAU/USD	1024.00	1026	1045.00	1059.00	1067.00
OIL/USD	75.25	76.40	76.90	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4730

Initial support at 1.4683 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.4646 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)

Yen – 90.00

Initial support is located at 89.93 (Oct 30 low) followed by 89.28 (Oct 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.82 (Oct 28 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).

Pound – 1.6450

Initial support at 1.6339 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.6252 (Oct 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9015

Initial support at 0.8944 (Oct 29 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).

Gold – 1045

Initial support at 1026 (Sept 29 low) followed by 1024 (Sept 17 high). Initial resistance is now at 1059 (Oct 25 high) followed by 1067 (Oct 20 high).

Oil – 76.90

Initial support at 76.40 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.22 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (previous support) followed by 80 (Major Level).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Oct 29 2009

2009-10-30T00:30:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Market Plunges, Dollar Soars

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 29th October (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was second only to the Yen as markets around the world were deep in the red and risk aversion came back into play. September Durable Goods Orders 1.0% vs. -2.6% previously. Hurting sentiment was the large drop in September Home Sales at 402k vs. 440k forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -119 points closing at 9762, S&P -20 points closing at 1042 and NASDAQ -56 points closing at 2059. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP is forecast at 3.3% vs. -0.7% previously. Also released Weekly jobless claims forecast at 521k vs. 531k previously.

The Euro (EUR) found support in Asia from sovereign buying but as US stocks continued to plunge and EUR/JPY selling intensified through the 135 level the market shunted another leg lower to the 1.4700 figure. German Import Prices were -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4691 and a high of 1.4841 before closing at 1.4700. Looking ahead, October German Unemployment Forecast at 8.3% vs. 8.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained across the board as traders took risky trades off the table with the mounting global equity losses. USD/JPY reversed back through 91 Yen and AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY fell over 3% each. After a large run up over the past three weeks the markets were caught long. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.55 and a high of 91.73 before closing the day around 90.60 in the New York session. Update September Industrial Output Preliminary at 1.4% vs. 1.0% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was surprising resilient from very heavy EUR/GBP selling through the 0.9000 level. Cable held above 1.6300 and rallied at the start of US through 1.6400 before falling as US stocks slumped. GBP/JPY succumbed to Yen strength but was not as weak as expected. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6286 and a high of 1.6467 before closing the day at 1.6380 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Mortgage lending data forecast 0.8bn vs. 1.01bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was crushed under risk aversion even as CPI data came in stronger than expected. Q3 CPI 1.0% vs. 0.8% forecast. Heavy selling on AUD/JPY came through in Asia and continued throughout the day. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8963 and a high of 0.9207 before closing the US session at 0.8970.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell in the face of USD strength but safe haven flows stemmed the loss. Overall trading with a low of USD$1026 and high of USD$1042 before ending the New York session at USD$1029 an ounce. Fell heavily on recovery concerns. Crude Oil was down $2.09 ending the New York session at $77.46.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4674	1.4691	1.4720	1.4927	1.5063
USD/JPY	90.08	90.49	90.70	92.53	93.30
GBP/USD	1.6120	1.6252	1.6380	1.6467	1.6533
AUD/USD	0.8866	0.8963	0.8990	0.9218	0.9329
XAU/USD	1024.00	1026.8	1028.00	1043.00	1067.00
OIL/USD	75.00	76.50	77.30	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4720

Initial support at 1.4691 (Oct 28 low) followed by 1.4674 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high)

Yen – 90.70

Initial support is located at 90.49 (Oct 21 low) followed by 90.08 (Oct 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.53 (Sept 21 high) followed by 93.3 (Sept 7 high).

Pound – 1.6380

Initial support at 1.6252 (Oct 26 low) followed by 1.6120 (Oct 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6467 (Oct 28 high) followed by 1.6533 (61.8% retrace 1.7043 - 1.5708).

Australian Dollar – 0.8990

Initial support at 0.8963 (Oct 28 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).

Gold – 1028

Initial support at 1026.8 (Oct 27 low) followed by 1024 (Sep 17). Initial resistance is now at 1043 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1067 (Oct 20 high).

Oil – 77.30

Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (major level). Initial resistance is now at 79 ( previous support) followed by 80.00 (Major Level).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Oct 28 2009

2009-10-28T23:24:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Euro Continues lower

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 28th October (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong in general as US stocks remained on the back foot. Risk sentiment was also dented by a large fall in US consumer Confidence with October dropping to 47.7 vs. 53.4 previously. August Case-Shiller House prices rose 1.2% vs. 0.7% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +14 points closing at 9882, S&P -3 points closing at 1063 and NASDAQ -25 points closing at 2116. Looking ahead, September Durable Goods Orders forecast at 1% vs. -2.6% previously. Crude Oil Inventories released forecast at 1.4mln vs. 1.3mln previously.

The Euro (EUR) took the full force of USD and Yen strength falling below 1.4800 and breaking the key 1.4840 support level. EUR/JPY also fell heavily below 136 yen. September Private Loans forecast at -0.3% was at expectations. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4770 and a high of 1.4928 before closing at 1.4810. Looking ahead, German Import prices forecast at -0.6% vs. 1.3% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained across the board on increasing risk aversion and a drop in US yields after a strong treasury auction overnight. USD/JPY slipped from the 92 figure and EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY were under pressure. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.61 and a high of 92.33 before closing the day around 92.25 in the New York session. Update September Retail Sales -1.4%, forecast at -1.6% vs. -1.8% y/y previously.

The Sterling (GBP) continued to find strength as traders ignored the rest of the market and supported the pound. EUR/GBP continued lower after October CBI Distributive Trades are forecast at 5 vs. 3 previously, came in strong at 8. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6286 and a high of 1.6440 before closing the day at 1.6380 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled above 0.9200 as the Euro fell and AUD/JPY also came under pressure. A rise in Oil failed to offset and the pair tested 0.9120 support again. Attention is still focused on RBA next Tuesday and CPI today. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9122 and a high of 0.9219 before closing the US session at 0.9160. UPDATE Q3 CPI 1.0% vs. 0.8% forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was weak again testing support in the low 1030's. Overall trading with a low of USD$1032 and high of USD$1043 before ending the New York session at USD$1038 an ounce. Gained as the market rebounded from two days of heavy selling. Crude Oil was up $0.87 ending the New York session at $79.55.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4762	1.4770	1.4820	1.5083	1.5163
USD/JPY	90.49	91.28	91.70	92.53	93.30
GBP/USD	1.6120	1.6241	1.6380	1.6533	1.6693
AUD/USD	0.8985	0.9113	0.9170	0.9347	0.9476
XAU/USD	1000.00	1024	1040.00	1067.00	1070.00
OIL/USD	77.50	78.00	79.60	80.00	81.10

Euro – 1.4820

Initial support at 1.4770 (Oct 27 low) followed by 1.4762 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5083 (Oct 21 high) followed by 1.5163 (76.4% retrace 1.6038 - 1.2330)

Yen – 91.70

Initial support is located at 91.18 (Oct 23 low) followed by 90.49 (Oct 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.53 (Sept 21 high) followed by 93.3 (Sept 7 high).

Pound – 1.6380

Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6120 (Oct 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6533 (61.8% retrace 1.7043 - 1.5708) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9170

Initial support at 0.9113 (Oct 19 low) followed by the 0.8985 (Oct 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9347 (Aug 4 08 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 08 high).

Gold – 1040

Initial support at 1024 (Sep 17 low) followed by 1000 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high).

Oil – 79.70

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 ( Major Level) followed by 82.00 (October High).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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