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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 24 2009

2009-12-24T07:50:00.001+13:00

New Home Sales Slump

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 24th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) November Home Sales slumped to 355k vs. 442k forecast and invited traders to rethink the recent Dollar rally and the timing of US interest rate hikes. This combined with a significant rally in Oil to push most pairs higher against the Greenback. DJIA +2 points closing at 10466, S&P +2 points closing at 1120 and NASDAQ +16 points closing at 2269. Looking ahead, Weekly jobless claims are forecast at 470k vs.480k previously. Also Released, November Durable Goods forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) rallied above 1.4300 on dollar weakness more than Euro strength. The pair will need to reclaim the 1.4500 level before downside pressure is relieved. Underpinning the move was a push higher in the in the EUR/JPY above Y131. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4232 and a high of 1.4368 before closing at 1.4330.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY rally finally ground to a halt but the pull back was shallow as Yen crosses then took up the slack. Key Resistance is seen at Y92. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY edged higher for most of the day. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.30 and a high of 91.89 before closing the day around 91.80 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ minutes released.

The Sterling (GBP) failed to capitalize on USD weakness as the market is still cautious but the downside was also limited. The pair spent the whole day inside the 1.5920-1.6000 range. EUR/GBP rallied towards the key 0.9000 level. The BoE minutes added little to what was a quiet day of trading. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5922 and a high of 1.5997 before closing the day at 1.5960 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied off multi month lows at 0.8740 to regain the 0.8800 handle. Commodities rallied across the board and risk appetite remained strong. AUD/NZD jumped back above 1.2500 as New Zealand Q3 GDP came in worse than forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.4% expected. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8733 and a high of 0.8821 before closing the US session at 0.8800.

Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced but failed to break above the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1079 and high of USD$1096 before ending the New York session at USD$1094 an ounce. Rallied on bullish Weekly Crude Inventories. Crude Oil was up +$2.27 ending the New York session at $76.67.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4178	1.4218	1.4335	1.4366	1.4373
USD/JPY	90.16	91.00	91.70	91.87	92.32
GBP/USD	1.5903	1.5922	1.5965	1.6100	1.6165
AUD/USD	0.8570	0.8647	0.8800	0.8834	0.8925
XAU/USD	1055.00	1074	1092.00	1119	1141.00
OIL/USD	74.50	75.00	76.80	77.00	78.00

Euro – 1.4335

Initial support at 1.4218 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.4178 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4366 (Dec 23 high) followed by 1.4373 (Dec 21 high)

Yen – 91.70

Initial support is located at 91.00 (Dec 22 low) followed by 90.16 (Dec 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.87 (Dec 22 high) followed by 92.32 (Oct 27 High).

Pound – 1.5965

Initial support at 1.5922 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6100 (Dec 22 high) followed by 1.6165 (Dec 21 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8800

Initial support at 0.8647 (Dec 22 low) followed by the 0.8570 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8834 (Dec 22 high) followed by 0.8925 (Dec 21 high).

Gold – 1092

Initial support at 1074 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1055 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1119 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1141 (Dec 17 high) .

Oil – 76.80

Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday support) followed by 74.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 77.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 78.00 (Intraday resistance).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 23 2009

2009-12-23T18:10:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

US GDP Slows Down

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 23rd December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) more Dollar strength was seen as the market ignored weaker than expected Q3 GDP to +2.2% from +2.8%. November US Existing Home Sales were +7.4% m/m at 6.54mln vs. 6.25mn forecast. DJIA +50 points closing at 10464, S&P +3 points closing at 1118 and NASDAQ +15 points closing at 2252. Looking ahead, November New Home Sales are forecast at 0.44mln vs. 0.43mln previously. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are forecast at -1.5mln vs. -3.7mln previously.

The Euro (EUR) traded at new month lows after breaking through support at 1.4250. The market bounced later in the US session but is still very heavy. Targets on the downside include the key psychological level of 1.4000. EUR/JPY continued to grind higher but was contained by resistance at Y131. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4216 and a high of 1.4334 before closing at 1.4250. Looking ahead, German November Imports are forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.5% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) more selling was seen throughout the day as markets continue to take a dovish view of the recent BoJ actions in the market. Speculation remains that to counter deflation in Japan the government stimulus will have to expanded significantly beyond the current levels and this will put downside pressure on the Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.98 and a high of 91.89 before closing the day around 91.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) fell against most major currencies as the market reacted to poor Q3 GDP revisions of -0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast. The Key 1.6000 level in cable was broken and the pair also fell through the 200 day MA in a bearish technical sign. One measure of support was seen in the GBP/JPY which bounced off the Y146 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5919 and a high of 1.6103 before closing the day at 1.5960 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December Bank of England Minutes released.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strong risk appetite did little to stem the pressure on the Aussie with the market buying the USD aggressively against all currencies. Support at 0.8750 held and AUD/JPY buying helped to stem the downside. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8741 and a high of 0.8837 before closing the US session at 0.8760. Update New Zealand Q3 GDP at 0.2% vs. 0.4% forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) continued to fall but support at $1080 allows the precious metal to bounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$1074 and high of USD$1098 before ending the New York session at USD$1084 an ounce. Bounced as the Oil market remained resilient to recent USD strength. Crude Oil was up +$0.68 ending the New York session at $74.40.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4178	1.4218	1.4255	1.4373	1.4412
USD/JPY	88.97	90.16	91.80	91.87	92.32
GBP/USD	1.5903	1.5922	1.5965	1.6165	1.6248
AUD/USD	0.8647	0.8751	0.8765	0.8925	0.9011
XAU/USD	1055.00	1074	1084.00	1119	1141.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	74.50	75.00	76.00

Euro – 1.4255

Initial support at 1.4218 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.4178 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4373 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1.4412 (Dec 18 high)

Yen – 91.80

Initial support is located at 90.16 (Dec 21 low) followed by 88.97 (Dec 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.87 (Dec 22 high) followed by 92.32 (Oct 27 High).

Pound – 1.5965

Initial support at 1.5922 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6165 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1.6248 (Dec 18 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8765

Initial support at 0.8751 (Dec 22 low) followed by the 0.8647 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8925 (Dec 21 high) followed by 0.9011 (Dec 17 high).

Gold – 1084

Initial support at 1074 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1055 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1119 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1141 (Dec 17 high) .

Oil – 74.50

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 76.00 (Intraday resistance).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 22 2009

2009-12-22T18:56:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Dollar Rally Continues

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 22nd December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the new dollar trend extended gains in quiet holiday trading. Not even a solid performance from US stocks could induce Dollar weakness in a dangerous sign for the bears still out there. Little Economic data was released and traders took their cue from a sharp drop in Gold Prices. DJIA +85 points closing at 10328, S&P +11 points closing at 1114 and NASDAQ +25 points closing at 2237. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP is forecast to be unrevised at 2.8% and November Existing Home Sales are forecast to increase to 6.25mln vs. 6.1mln previously.

The Euro (EUR) bounced around the 1.4300 level but was ultimately under pressure for most of the day and finished near multi-month lows. Some ECB members did little to help with Stark commenting he expects further European Bank Write downs and Orphanides comment that it was unthinkable that Greece would default. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4264 and a high of 1.4375 before closing at 1.4270. Looking ahead, October Industrial Orders forecast at -1.1% vs. 1.5% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weak across the board as the improving risk appetite was expressed by Yen weakness rather than through the USD. USD/JPY broke above Y91 and EUR/JPY above Y130. The market is continued to focus on the difference in yields between US and Japan Government Bonds. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.22 and a high of 91.26 before closing the day around 91.20 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was under pressure for most the day losing ground against the Euro and GBP but was relatively unchanged against the Yen. The market is looking to the MPC minutes and any clarification of the Quantitative easing program. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6028 and a high of 1.6168 before closing the day at 1.6040 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.3% initially.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to be extremely weak as markets questioned the speed of Interest rate hikes over the last 3 months and going forward. Combined with a strong USD the market pushed the Aussie lower against all except the Yen. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8782 and a high of 0.8907 before closing the US session at 0.8810.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell $20 as the market continued to pare back long gold positions. Overall trading with a low of USD$1089 and high of USD$1118 before ending the New York session at USD$1094 an ounce. Nigeria and Iraq pipeline bombs supported but failed to inspire fresh gains. Crude Oil was down -$0.89 ending the New York session at $73.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4178	1.4262	1.4275	1.4412	1.4536
USD/JPY	88.58	88.97	91.15	91.23	91.32
GBP/USD	1.5973	1.6031	1.6040	1.6248	1.6341
AUD/USD	0.8647	0.8760	0.8785	0.9011	0.9070
XAU/USD	1084.00	1090	1094.00	1141.00	1147.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	73.60	75.00	76.00

Euro – 1.4275

Initial support at 1.4262 (Dec 18 low) followed by 1.4178 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4412 (Dec 18 high) followed by 1.4536 (Dec 16 high)

Yen – 91.15

Initial support is located at 88.97 (Dec 18 low) followed by 88.58 (Dec 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.23 (Dec 21 high) followed by 91.32 (Nov 4 High).

Pound – 1.6040

Initial support at 1.6031 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1.5973 (Oct 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6248 (Dec 18 high ) followed by 1.6341 (Dec 17 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8785

Initial support at 0.8760 (Oct 6 low) followed by the 0.8647 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9011 (Dec 17 high) followed by 0.9070 (Dec 16 high).

Gold – 1094

Initial support at 1090 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1084 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high) .

Oil – 73.60

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 76.00 (Intraday resistance).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 21 2009

2009-12-21T22:05:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

EUR/CHF Testing the Swiss National Bank's Resolve

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 21st December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) bouts of strength were seen throughout the day with EUR/USD breaking below 1.4300 and USD/JPY pushing higher into the Y90's. Other currencies were mixed with risk improving throughout the day and commodities bouncing off lows. DJIA +20 points closing at 10328, S&P +6 points closing at 1102 and NASDAQ +31 points closing at 2211.

The Euro (EUR) the market was still looking to sell rallies with a relief rally in Asia been sold back in the US session as traders looked to break the 1.4300 level. Once the level broke there was little follow through and the pair rallied off lows once again. Some focus still remains on Greece as they try and tackle a burgeoning debt crisis. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4262 and a high of 1.4411 before closing at 1.4340.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) closed above 90 in a very bullish tone after repelling the Y89 level aggressively in Asia. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY led the rebound as the market turns more bearish on the medium term outlook of the Yen. The BOJ held at 0.1% as expected. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.96 and a high of 90.91 before closing the day around 90.28 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was a little more volatile than usual breaking to the downside in New York below 1.6100. GBP/JPY buying and strong Oil helped the pair to rally earlier in the day. Major Medium term support is seen in the 1.5950-1.6050 zone. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6053 and a high of 1.6249 before closing the day at 1.6140 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was well supported after suffering major losses during the weak with bargain hunters in the low 0.88's helping propel the Aussie back above 0.8900. The short USD trade in recent months was a major reason why the AUD has been so supported and the unwinding is hurting the pair more then most. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8812 and a high of 0.8911 before closing the US session at 0.8904.

Oil & Gold (XAU) reclaimed $1110 in a bullish day for the heavily beaten back precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$1097 and high of USD$1117 before ending the New York session at USD$1112 an ounce. Was Buoyant on IRAQ/IRAN border tensions. Crude Oil was down +$0.71 ending the New York session at $73.36.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4178	1.4262	1.4335	1.4536	1.4591
USD/JPY	88.20	88.58	90.40	90.91	91.32
GBP/USD	1.5903	1.5973	1.6140	1.6411	1.6516
AUD/USD	0.8647	0.8760	0.8905	0.9011	0.9070
XAU/USD	1080.00	1095	1116.00	1141.00	1147.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	74.50	75.00	76.00

Euro – 1.4335

Initial support at 1.4262 (Dec 18 low) followed by 1.4178 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4536 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1.4591 (Dec 16 high)

Yen – 90.40

Initial support is located at 88.58 (Dec 15 low) followed by 88.20 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.91 (Dec 17 high) followed by 91.32 (Nov 4 High).

Pound – 1.6140

Initial support at 1.5973 (Oct 15 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6411 (Dec 16 high ) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8905

Initial support at 0.8760 (Oct 6 low) followed by the 0.8647 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9011 (Dec 17 high) followed by 0.9070 (Dec 16 high).

Gold – 1116

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1084 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high) .

Oil – 74.50

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 76.00 (Intraday resistance).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 18 2009

2009-12-18T18:59:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

USD Building Momentum

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed strength across the board as the biggest currency pair, the Euro saw a major break lower. USD/JPY also broke higher above the key 90 Yen level but failed to push too much further with risk aversion present in the US Equity session. Weekly Jobless Claims were slightly weaker at 480k vs. 465k previously. DJIA -132 points closing at 10308, S&P -13 points closing at 1096 and NASDAQ -26 points closing at 2180.

The Euro (EUR) ongoing concerns about Greece Debt and a break of the major support at 1.4500 led to major move on the downside. Heavy stop losses and weak gold saw the the Euro slide to 1.4300 supports where the market was finally able to rebound. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4303 and a high of 1.4533 before closing at 1.4345. Looking ahead, December IFO forecast at 94.5 vs. 93.9 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded above the 90 Yen level in Asia on a very strong Dollar but was unable to hold above the key level throughout the day as bouts of Yen buying emerged on fresh risk aversion. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY weighed the market down. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.54 and a high of 90.39 before closing the day around 89.90 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Rate Decision forecast to remain at 0.1%

The Sterling (GBP) held up well in the face of massive Euro losses until bad data in Europe led the GBP to play catch up. UK November Retail Sales fell -0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Cable fell to multi month lows below 1.6100. EUR/GBP fell under 0.8900 comfortably. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6078 and a high of 1.6337 before closing the day at 1.6160 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke down with the Euro to 3 month lows under 0.8900 as the USD strengthened and stocks tumbled. AUD/JPY selling also took the important cross below the key 80 yen level. The market mood has changed dramatically towards the risk currency in the past few days as interest rate predictions for 2010 are toned down. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8809 and a high of 0.9007 before closing the US session at 0.8870.

Oil & Gold (XAU) longs capitulated sending the precious metal over $40 an ounce lower during the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1095 and high of USD$1142 before ending the New York session at USD$1098 an ounce. Held up well as the market rebound continued from the recent downtrend. Crude Oil was down -$0.50 ending the New York session at $72.66.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4287	1.4329	1.4345	1.4591	1.4685
USD/JPY	88.20	89.39	89.95	90.77	91.32
GBP/USD	1.5903	1.5973	1.6162	1.6411	1.6516
AUD/USD	0.8647	0.8760	0.8870	0.9070	0.9175
XAU/USD	1080.00	1095	1098.00	1110.00	1147.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	72.70	73.50	75.00

Euro – 1.4345

Initial support at 1.4329 (Sep 8 low) followed by 1.4287 (Sep 7 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4591 (Dec 16 high) followed by 1.4685 (Dec 14 high)

Yen – 89.95

Initial support is located at 89.39 (Dec 16 low) followed by 88.20 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.77 (Dec 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Nov 4 High).

Pound – 1.6162

Initial support at 1.5973 (Oct 15 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6411 (Dec 16 high ) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8870

Initial support at 0.8760 (Oct 6 low) followed by the 0.8647 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9070 (Dec 16 high) followed by 0.9175 (Dec 14 high).

Gold – 1098

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1080 (Key support). Initial resistance is now at 1110 (Previous Support) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high) .

Oil – 72.70

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 73.50 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 75.00 (Intraday resistance).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 15 2009

2009-12-15T22:03:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Dubai Bailout Spurs Risk Appetite.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 15th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks shot to year highs as the market reacted to Abu Dhabi's $10bn backing of Dubai World. Risky currencies shot higher but the market failed to follow through with the USD remaining well supported as an aftershock to Friday's major gains. DJIA +29 points closing at 10501, S&P +7 points closing at 1114 and NASDAQ +21 points closing at 2212. Looking ahead, December NY FED forecast at 24 vs. 23.5 previously. Also released, November PPI is forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.3% previously.

The Euro (EUR) remained well supported above the 1.4600 level all day but struggled to trade near the 1.4700 level as concerns about Greece, Spain and Ireland contained the rebound for now. EUR/JPY responded to the Dubai news but failed to close above the 130 Yen level whilst EUR/GBP was very volatile as the Pound bounced around. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4607 and a high of 1.4687 before closing at 1.4655. Looking ahead, December ZEW sentiment survey forecast at 50 vs. 51.1 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was stronger against most currencies although gains were pared back after the Dubai news. USD/JPY was sluggish slipping below 89 to find support in the lower 88 yen region. AUD/JPY was able to finish roughly unchanged as the high yielder benefited the most from the improved risk appetite. Japanese December Big Manufacturing Tankan Index improved to -24 vs. -33 previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.31 and a high of 89.30 before closing the day around 88.60 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) gained initially on the Dubai news with the UK banking sector which is heavily exposed to the region's debt breathing a sigh of relief. Gains were capped however with the market extremely nervous about getting to long into a falling market. November House Prices showed a -2.2% drop with the higher end the most heavily affected. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6188 and a high of 1.6328 before closing the day at 1.6310 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November CPI is forecast at 0.25 vs. 0.25 previously. Also released, November RPI forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.35 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under pressure early in the day as AUD/JPY selling mounted before reversing sharply with stocks on the Dubai news. Gold also rallied and this helped underpin the rally in the US session. AUD/NZD is still on the offered side leading the NZD to outpace any gains of the Aussie. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9053 and a high of 0.9177 before closing the US session at 0.9170. Looking Ahead, December RBA minutes released.

Oil & Gold (XAU) managed to rally for most of the day as the market rebounded from heavy selling over the past several sessions. Overall trading with a low of USD$1112 and high of USD$1128 before ending the New York session at USD$1126 an ounce. Continued to trade under the $70 level although further losses were avoided. Crude Oil was down -$0.07 ending the New York session at $69.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4481	1.4586	1.4650	1.4782	1.4905
USD/JPY	87.37	88.20	88.60	89.81	90.46
GBP/USD	1.6126	1.6168	1.6310	1.6375	1.6516
AUD/USD	0.8947	0.9016	0.9170	0.9195	0.9323
XAU/USD	1101.00	1109	1125.00	1142.00	1147.00
OIL/USD	68.50	69.00	69.70	70.00	72.50

Euro – 1.4650

Initial support at 1.4586 (Dec 11 low) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.4905 (Dec 7 high)

Yen – 88.60

Initial support is located at 88.20 (Dec 11 low) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.81 (Dec 11 high) followed by 90.46 (Dec 7 High).

Pound – 1.6310

Initial support at 1.6168 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.6126 (Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6375 (Dec 10 high ) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9170

Initial support at 0.9016 (Dec 9 low) followed by the 0.8947 (Nov 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9195 (Dec 11 high) followed by 0.9322 (Dec 3 high).

Gold – 1125

Initial support at 1109 (Dec 11 low) followed by 1101 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1142 (Dec 11 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 09 high) .

Oil – 69.70

Initial support at 69.00 (Intraday support) followed by 68.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 70.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 72.50 (Intraday resistance).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 14 2009

2009-12-14T22:13:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Dollar Gains on US Economic Recovery Hopes

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 14th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) made gains across the board as US economic data surprised, helping to fuel speculation of early Fed action on US interest rates and a widening gap between the US and Eurozone's recovery speed. November US Retail Sales +1.3% vs. 0.6% forecast. December UoM Consumer Sentiment at 73.4 vs. 69.7. DJIA +65 points closing at 10471, S&P +4 points closing at 1106 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2190.

The Euro (EUR) was well supported in the Asian and European session creeping to day highs near 1.4780 before plummeting on the US data to break briefly below 1.4600. EUR/JPY was volatile but closed well supported above 130 Yen. EUR/GBP pivoted the 0.9000 as Euro weakness outpaced the Pound. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4587 and a high of 1.4776 before closing at 1.4620. Looking ahead, Q3 Industrial Production forecast at -0.7% vs. 0.3%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weak from the outset at USD/JPY started to move higher in Asia and USD strength in the US pushed the major close to 90 Yen before profit taking into the weekend. Crosses tracked the Major. Helping lift the Market in Asia was strong Chinese data which induced fresh risk taking in global markets. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.20 and a high of 89.81 before closing the day around 88.25 in the New York session. UPDATE JAPANESE BIG MANUFACTURING TANKAN INDEX -24 vs. -33 PREVIOUSLY.

The Sterling (GBP) was sold against the USD along with the rest of the market but held up relatively well with risk appetite quite strong and GBP/JPY buying providing support. UK PPI rose 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected in November. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6198 and a high of 1.6338 before closing the day at 1.6230 in the New York session. UPDATE November House Price at 1.7% y/y vs. 1.6% y/y previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to take advantage of the improved risk appetite as the USD was broadly strong and Gold and Oil were weak. AUD/JPY was the preferred option to express risk. Chinese data helped improve the mood but AUD/NZD sales were noticeable during the day. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9092 and a high of 0.9194 before closing the US session at 0.9116.

Oil & Gold (XAU) the market continued to sell rallies with the USD on the front foot falling $30 in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1110 and high of USD$1142 before ending the New York session at USD$1115 an ounce. Oil Fell below the Critical $70 and closed on a weak note. Crude Oil was down -$0.89 ending the New York session at $69.65.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4481	1.4586	1.4635	1.4782	1.4905
USD/JPY	87.37	88.20	88.85	89.81	90.46
GBP/USD	1.6126	1.6168	1.6225	1.6375	1.6516
AUD/USD	0.8947	0.9016	0.9100	0.9322	0.9406
XAU/USD	1101.00	1109	1118.00	1147.00	1169.00
OIL/USD	68.50	69.00	69.40	70.00	72.50

Euro – 1.4635

Initial support at 1.4586 (Dec 11 low) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.4905 (Dec 7 high)

Yen – 88.85

Initial support is located at 88.20 (Dec 11 low) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.81 (Dec 11 high) followed by 90.46 (Dec 7 High).

Pound – 1.6225

Initial support at 1.6168 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.6126 (Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6375 (Dec 10 high ) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9100

Initial support at 0.9016 (Dec 9 low) followed by the 0.8947 (Nov 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9322 (Dec 3 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1118

Initial support at 1109 (Dec 11 low) followed by 1101 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1147 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1169 (Dec 08 high) .

Oil – 69.40

Initial support at 69.00 (Major level) followed by 68.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 70.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 72.50 (intraday resistance).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 11 2009

2009-12-11T19:50:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

AUD and NZD lead Recovery

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was a relatively quiet trading day with most the majors staying within the range of the previous day tracking movements in stock markets. US equities finished on a positive note as jobs numbers continue to improve. Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 474k vs. 457k previously were not that impressive but Continuous Claims dropped to 5.15m vs. 5.44m forecast. DJIA +68 points closing at 10405, S&P +6 points closing at 1102 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2190. Looking ahead, November Retail Sales forecast at 0.7% vs. 1.4% previously.

The Euro (EUR) stayed within a 80 pip range for the whole day with improving risk being countered by concerns about some EU states and talk that the US economy will outpace the Eurozone during the recovery. Swiss held their rates at 0.25% and EUR/CHF was very quiet around the 1.5100 figure. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and a high of 1.4762 before closing at 1.4730. Looking ahead, ECB President Trichet speaks.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strong US data sales helped the USD/JPY gain a solid footing above the 88 Yen level in quiet trade. The market is very mixed on the outlook of the Yen although a median forecast of Bloomberg analysts for 2010 was for an average price at 98. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.72 and a high of 88.48 before closing the day around 88.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Chinese Trade Balance forecast at 24Bn in November.

The Sterling (GBP) the BOE proved a non event and the GBP/USD stayed within a contained range. Rates were held at 0.5% and the Asset purchase program was capped at 200bn as forecast. GPD/AUD was a major mover to the downside as the new theme of selective risk helped the higher yielder. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6213 and a high of 1.6350 before closing the day at 1.6270 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November PPI output forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.2% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was pushed higher after the November Unemployment report stunned the market. November Employment change was +31k vs. +5k forecast and the Unemployment Rate was 5.7% vs. 5.9% forecast. The only pair to outpace the Aussie was its neighbour the NZD which received a boost from a relatively hawkish monetary policy statement after their RBNZ meeting yesterday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9089 and a high of 0.9193 before closing the US session at 0.9170.

Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated recent losses in a tight range but finished on a firmer footing. Overall trading with a low of USD$1120 and high of USD$1137 before ending the New York session at USD$1131 an ounce. Crude Oil found Support under $70 a barrel but it still quite sluggish as oversupply fears mount. Crude Oil was down -$0.13 ending the New York session at $70.54.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4626	1.4668	1.4735	1.4768	1.4905
USD/JPY	86.59	87.37	88.30	88.69	89.52
GBP/USD	1.6126	1.6168	1.6280	1.6375	1.6516
AUD/USD	0.8947	0.9016	0.9170	0.9322	0.9406
XAU/USD	1101.00	1116	1130.00	1147.00	1169.00
OIL/USD	69.50	70.00	70.60	72.50	75.00

Euro – 1.4735

Initial support at 1.4668 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.4626 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.4905 (Dec 7 high)

Yen – 88.30

Initial support is located at 87.37 (Dec 9 low) followed by 86.59 (Dec 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 88.69 (Dec 9 high) followed by 89.52 (Dec 8 High).

Pound – 1.6280

Initial support at 1.6168 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.6126 (Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6375 (Dec 10 high ) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9170

Initial support at 0.9016 (Dec 9 low) followed by the 0.8947 (Nov 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9322 (Dec 3 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1130

Initial support at 1116 (Dec 8 low) followed by 1101 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1147 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1169 (Dec 08 high) .

Oil – 70.60

Initial support at 70.00 (Major level) followed by 69.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 72.50 (intraday resistance) followed by 75 (intraday resistance).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 10 2009

2009-12-10T17:51:00.002+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Oil's Slide Continues

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong for most of the day as risk aversion remained elevated and markets focused on bad news stories outside of the US. Stocks in the US session finished on a positive note and this led to the USD paring back gains. Helping sentiment was BoA announcement they had repaid $45bn in TARP money. DJIA +51 points closing at 10337, S&P +4 points closing at 1095 and NASDAQ +10 points closing at 2183. Looking ahead, Weekly jobless claims forecast at 460k vs. 457k previously.

The Euro (EUR) new 5 week lows in Asia were seen on stoploss runs before consolidation and a small bounce the rest of the day. Weak Oil and a negative rating watch on Spain are hurting sentiment towards the single currency. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4667 and a high of 1.4784 before closing at 1.4730. Looking ahead, Swiss Rate Decision forecast to remain at 0.25%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) with risk aversion again prevalent in the Asia and European sessions the downside was tested on most crosses and the USD/JPY. Q3 GDP was revised lower to 0.3% vs. 1.2% previously as Capex was very weak. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.35 and a high of 88.73 before closing the day around 88.00 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) came under pressure as the UK budget was put under the microscope and UK's Darling slapped a 50% tax on bankers bonuses. October Trade Balance was -7.1bn vs. -6.85bn forecast. The cable struggled to rally off lows with the rest of the majors in New York and was very weak on most crosses. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6165 and a high of 1.6379 before closing the day at 1.6260 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Rate decision forecast to remain at 0.5% and keep QE at 200BN.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found solid support at 0.9020 on three occasions but rallies were subdued as the market is nervous to buy too aggressively in the current market. October Trade Balance -2379mn vs. -1700mn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9021 and a high of 0.9116 before closing the US session at 0.9090.Looking ahead, Australian Unemployment Rate forecast at 5.9% vs. 5.8% previously and Employment change is expected at 5k vs. 25k previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) rallied in Asia but was sold off again with Oil in the US session before finishing broadly where it began. Overall trading with a low of USD$1115 and high of USD$1147 before ending the New York session at USD$1132 an ounce. Strong Crude numbers were ignored as Crude printed fresh multi month lows below $71 a barrel. Crude Oil was down -$1.95 ending the New York session at $70.67.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4611	1.4626	1.4735	1.4905	1.5091
USD/JPY	86.59	87.32	88.05	89.52	90.77
GBP/USD	1.5973	1.6126	1.6270	1.6516	1.6722
AUD/USD	0.8907	0.8947	0.9095	0.9189	0.9322
XAU/USD	1118.00	1124	1132.00	1199.00	1179.00
OIL/USD	69.50	70.00	70.80	72.50	75.00

Euro – 1.4735

Initial support at 1.4626 (November 3 low) followed by 1.4611 (0.382 of 1.3749-1.5144). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 high) followed by 1.5091 (Dec 4 high)

Yen – 88.05

Initial support is located at 87.32 (Dec 4 low) followed by 86.59 (Dec 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.52 (Dec 8 high) followed by 90.77 (Dec 4 High).

Pound – 1.6270

Initial support at 1.6126 (Sept 30 low) followed by 1.5973 (Oct 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6516 (Dec 7 high ) followed by 1.6722 (Dec 3 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9095

Initial support at 0.8947 (Nov 27 low) followed by the 0.8907 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9189 (Dec 7 high) followed by 0.9322 (Dec 3 high).

Gold – 1132

Initial support at 1124 (Dec 8 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1169 (Dec 8 high) followed by 1179 (0.236 of 1026.60 - 1226.56) .

Oil – 70.80

Initial support at 70.00 (Major level) followed by 69.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 72.50 (intraday resistance) followed by 75 (intraday resistance).

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Daily Forex Commentary: Dec 9 2009

2009-12-09T17:12:00.001+13:00

FOREX Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com

Greece Downgrade Rekindles Fear

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed the fruits of bad news with the Greece rating downgrade putting pressure on the Euro and fresh Dubai fears hurting the GBP. US stocks fell along with most global stocks as risk aversion increased. DJIA -104 points closing at 10285, S&P -11 points closing at 1091 and NASDAQ -16 points closing at 2172. Looking ahead, US Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 0.7M vs. 2.1M previously.

The Euro (EUR) the single currency was already under pressure from falls in Asian stocks before the rating downgrade of Greece to BBB+ from AAA- gave the market a reason to test lower. Support was found below 1.4700 but the pair is on a fragile footing with EUR/JPY dipping below the key Y130 level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4667 and a high of 1.4869 before closing at 1.4715. Looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 10.4b vs. 9.9b previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued falls in the USD/JPY and risk aversion are helping put pressure on the crosses leading to widespread Yen buying. Markets are slightly cautious about the provoking further government verbal intervention should we approach the Y85 level again. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.16 and a high of 89.47 before closing the day around 88.40 in the New York session. UPDATE Q3 GDP at 0.3% vs. 0.7% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was hurt more than the Euro as UK banking stocks slumped on fresh concerns about there exposure to the middle east debt market. Rumors of RBS board resigning and a break below 1.6300 support added to the downside momentum. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6222 and a high of 1.6480 before closing the day at 1.64 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Trade Balance forecast at -6.85bn vs. -7.19bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under fairly constant pressure with rallies being sold and the market tracking stocks and gold lower. AUD/JPY selling in Asia was aggressive and the pair ended the day below the Key 80 Yen level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.90 and a high of 0.9167 before closing the US session at 0.9040. UPDATE OCTOBER TRADE BALANCE -2379mn vs. -1700mn forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) the liquidation of longs continued with the market testing the downside support below $1130. Overall trading with a low of USD$1124 and high of USD$1169 before ending the New York session at USD$1130 an ounce. Continued with the recent downtrend but found solid support at $72.50. Crude Oil was down -$1.30 ending the New York session at $72.70.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4626	1.4681	1.4710	1.4905	1.5091
USD/JPY	87.32	88.00	88.40	90.77	91.32
GBP/USD	1.6241	1.6256	1.6270	1.6516	1.6722
AUD/USD	0.8947	0.9021	0.9040	0.9189	0.9322
XAU/USD	1118.00	1124	1130.00	1179.00	1212.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	73.00	75.00	77.00

Euro – 1.4710

Initial support at 1.4702 (November 4 low) followed by 1.4626 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5091 (Dec 4 high) followed by 1.5144 (Nov 25 high)

Yen – 88.40

Initial support is located at 88.00 (Dec 4 low) followed by 87.32 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.77 (Dec 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Nov 4 High).

Pound – 1.6270

Initial support at 1.6273 (Nov 27 low) followed by 1.6241 (Oct 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6516 (Dec 7 high ) followed by 1.6722 (Dec 3 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9040

Initial support at 0.9021 (Dec 8 low) followed by the 0.8947 (Nov 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9189 (Dec 7 high) followed by 0.9322 (Dec 3 high).

Gold – 1130

Initial support at 1124 (Dec 8 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1179 (0.236 of 1026.60 - 1226.56) followed by 1212.5 (Dec 4 high).

Oil – 73.00

Initial support at 72.50 (Dec 7 low) followed by 70.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 75 (intraday resistance) followed by 77 (intraday resistance).

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.

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