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2014-02-06T23:01:00.001+08:00

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Jamie Coleman and Gerry Davies join the FXstreet.com Family

2013-10-15T21:31:00.000+08:00

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2013-10-03T19:02:00.000+08:00

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ForexLive.com Daily Digest

2013-08-30T17:02:00.001+08:00

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08/30/2013

Syria: Hollande says France can take military action without Britain

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:57 am

It's never stopped them in the past ! * France supports "firm"action against Assad

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AUDUSD orders 30 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:54 am

Currently 0.8926 Sellers 0.8965 0.8980 0.8990 0.9000 0.9010 0.9020 0.9050 Buyers 0.8900 0.8890 0.8880 0.8865 0.8850 0.8830 0.8800

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UK mortgage approvals july: 60,624 vs 59k exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:31 am

* 58,238 prev revised up from 57,667 * highest since march 2008 * mortgage lending GBP +0.7 bln vs 1.1 bln exp * M4 money supply growth m/m +0.6% vs +0.1% prev * y/y +1.8% highest since aug 2010 * consumer credit GBP +0.6 bln as exp vs +0.4 bln prev revised down from 0.5 bln Encouraging mortgage approvals data which supports stronger house price trend Not so cheery on the lending front though GBPUSD sold initially to test 1.5500 again.. currently 1.5502

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GBPUSD orders 30 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:29 am

Currently 1.5514 Sellers 1.5530 1.5540 1.5550 1.5570 1.5590 1.5600 1.5610 1.5620 1.5650 Buyers 1.5490 1.5480 1.5465 1.5450 1.5425 1.5400

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EURUSD orders 30 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:19 am

Currently 1.3244 Sellers 1.3260 1.3280 1.3300 1.3310 1.3330 1.3350 1.3380 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 Buyers 1.3210 1.3200 1.3185 1.3160 1.3150 1.3130

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USDJPY orders 30 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:15 am

Currently 98.03 having posted lows of 97.89 Large ( USD 1 bln ) expiry at 98.00 today (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/30/large-usdjpy-expiry-today/) Sellers 98.25 98.40 98.50 98.80 99.00 99.15 99.30 99.50 Buyers 97.85 97.65 97.50 97.25 97.00 96.50

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Italian unemployment july: 12% vs 12.2% exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 04:00 am

* 12.1 prev A welcome improvement/respite albeit a small one EURUSD 1.3237

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Syria: UK's Osborne says parliamentary defeat will spark debate over Britain's role in world affairs

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 03:50 am

That's no bad thing then! The UK chancellor from an interview on BBC radio just now There will be a national soul-searching about our role in the world and whether Britain wants to play a big part in upholding the international system * says talk of damaged US-UK ties after the vote against military action is " hyperbole" My own thoughts are that it's a sobering reminder of the need for caution in the wake of the Iraq debacle PM Cameron will come under increasing pressure from within his own ranks For more on the vote and the potential fall out here's the take of The Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10275158/Syria-crisis-No-to-war-blow-to-Cameron.html)

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ECB's Nowotny says emerging market turmoil not having impact on EZ economy so far

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 03:46 am

* repeats that inflation the main focus and forward guidance (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/29/ecbs-nowotny-says-forward-guidance-assures-market-of-low-rates-for-foreseeable-future/) means low rates for some time

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Swiss KOF leading indicator august: 1.36 vs 1.33 exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 03:39 am

* 1.25 prev revised up from 1.23 Out a little earlier but had no impact

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USDJPY trades through 98.00

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 03:28 am

Low post 97.95 Difficult to see it trading too far away from 98.00 but plenty of time yet before option expiry (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/30/large-usdjpy-expiry-today/) USD generally lower USDCHF 0.9301 from 0.9322 highs earlier

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European equity markets open mixed

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 03:10 am

* FTSE +0.04% * DAX +0.03% * CAC40 – 0.03% * IBEX -0.2% * FTMIB -0.2%

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Indian PM Singh says rupee fall is part of needed adjustment

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 02:43 am

Speech to parliament that he promised yesterday * but says its "a matter of concern" * expects rupee decline to be positively reflected in exports in coming months * says India must reduce its appettite for gold and consumption of oil * rupee fall caused by large current account deficit and other domestic factors * govt will take all possible steps to keep c/a below $70 bln * not contemplating capital controls * govt will do more to improve economic fundamentals * will contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% in 2014 * depreciation in rupee will put upward pressure on inflation * fundamentals of Indian economy remain strong * banks are well capitalized to pay for non-performing assets * there may be short term shocks to the economy which must be faced That would appear to be all Quite how he intends to curb gold and oil imports to improve c/a he doesn't say Perhaps our Indian readers can shed some light?

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Japan's GPIF fund posts april-june investment gain of JPY 2.21 trln

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 02:21 am

* vs JPY 7.63 trln gain jan-march * april-june gain helped by strong domestic equities but hurt by record loss from yen bond investments of aJPY 945.1 bln Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund which has JPY 1 trln under management

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Eurostoxx 50 futures +0.1% in early trading

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 02:14 am

* FTSE futures -0.1% * DAX futures +0.2% * CAC40 futures +0.1% Bund futures flat at 140.60 Add: now up 15 ticks after weaker German reatil sales data

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Nikkei closes down 0.53% at 13,388.86

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 02:03 am

* -70.85 * high 13,615.98 * low 13,335.91 * USDJPY 98.17 Down 2% on the week and 2% on the month (fourth monthly decline in a row)

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German retail sales july: m/m -1.4% vs +0.5% exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 02:00 am

* -0.8% revised up from-1.5% prev (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/07/31/german-retail-sales-june-1-5-vs-0-0-exp/) * y/y +2.3% vs +2% exp Lower than expected but prev revised higher Little change in EURUSD AT 1.3243

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Large USDJPY expiry today

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 01:55 am

Further to my earlier post (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/30/option-expiries-10am-ny-cut-93/) I hear that the large expiry at 98.00 today is worth USD 1 bln which is likely to have some impact in keeping the price close by Just letting you know

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Nikkei clawing back some losses into the close

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 01:41 am

Currently -0.24% at 13, 423.92 USDJPY steady at 98.24

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Japan housing starts july: +12 vs +13.6 exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 30, 2013 01:02 am

* +15.3 prev (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/07/31/japanese-housing-starts-june-yy-15-3-vs-15-8-exp/) USDJPY still 98.25

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ForexLive.com Daily Digest

2013-08-29T17:01:00.000+08:00

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08/29/2013

AUDUSD orders 29 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:55 am

Currently 0.8935 Sellers 0.8955 0.8970 0.8980 0.9000 0.9010 0.9020 0.9050 Buyers 0.8930 0.8920 0.8900 0.8880 0.8865 0.8850 0.8830 0.8800

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GBPUSD orders 29 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:49 am

Currently 1.5511 Sellers 1.5530 1.5550 1.5570 1.5590 1.5600 1.5610 1.5620 1.5650 Buyers 1.5500 1.5485 1.5465 1.5450 1.5425 1.5400

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USDJPY orders 29 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:37 am

Currently 98.12 Sellers 98.35 98.40 98.55 98.80 99.00 99.15 99.30 99.50 Buyers 98.00 97.85 97.65 97.50 97.25 97.00 96.50

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EURUSD orders 29 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:30 am

Apols for the delay this morning but hopefully my other posts have been equally as informative, and have, after all, been order related ! And my little typing fingers are on fire. Let's hope we get no more news out while I put up all the orders Currently 1.3266 Sellers 1.3280 1.3300 1.3310 1.3330 1.3350 1.3380 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 Buyers 1.3250 ( option related as posted earlier. stop loss selling if breached) 1.3230 1.3210 1.3200 1.3185 1.3160

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ECB's Nowotny says forward guidance assures market of low rates for foreseeable future

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:21 am

Out just now on Reuters * says central banks have shown they can act reasonably if required * says large amount of deposits at ECB reflects uncertainty but money markets starting to work * seeing trend for market paticipants to hold more liquidity lasting for some time More of the same No impact EURUSD 1.3265

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Italian consumer confidence august: 98.3 vs 97.8 exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:17 am

* 97.4 prev revised up from 97.3

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German unemployment total august: nsa 2.946 mln vs 2.9 mln exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:13 am

* 2.9 mln prev * unemployment rate remains at 6.8% Out just now but I'm sure you've all seen it anyhow EURUSD still holding above 1.3250 and a little higher now at 1.3264

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Large option expiry for EURUSD today

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 04:04 am

Further to my earlier options expiry post (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/29/option-expiries-10am-ny-cut-29-august/) ( which I have now updated ) I'm now hearing talk that the EURUSD expiry at 10 am NY for 1.3250 could be worth at least USD 500 mln It's a vanilla option so will still be in play regardless, but judging by the current price action someone seems keen to defend it as a barrier too Low post 1.3254 before a weak rally to 1.3258

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Vodafone deal talk supports the pound

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 03:57 am

Vodafone shares have this morning jumped on confirmation that they're in talks to sell their 45% stake in US operator Verizon. Shares have posted a 12year high of 205.31 up 8% on the day This has been a widely talked about deal for some time and has attracted the obvious connection of a demand for pounds if the deal goes through. Final cash amount/impact still to be revealed but traders once again citing the potential demand as a reason for the perky pound this morning Add: My wise and learned friend who heads a major London equities desks tells me the stake is worth c. USD 130 bln GBPUSD holding onto 1.5500 still at the moment EURGBP has taken out bids at 0.8550 to post 0.8546

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US and UK governments face increasing opposition to Syrian strike

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 03:40 am

At least not yet, and not without UN support This is the background to my recent posts on the reduced safe-haven demand President Obama has scaled back his rhetoric (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/28/obama-syria-strike-chemical-weapons-29-august-2013/) in the face of increasing opposition, and UK PM Cameron has to contain his gung-ho approach as the danger of losing a parliamentary vote becomes more apparent. Today the UK's House of Commons will debate the Syrian crisis but not vote on any motion to intervene with military action, in the face of losing support of the opposition parties as well as many within his own ranks. The memory of Iraq rings ever louder and justifably so. The BBC here carries more on today's UK parliamentary debate (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23862114)

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Swiss Q2 NFPs: 4.166 mln vs 4.152 mln prev

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 03:28 am

USDCHF unchanged at 0.9270 EURCHF 1.2300

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Shine comes off gold as threat of Syrian strikes subside

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 03:23 am

Further to my previous post talking about the reduced safe haven demand we're naturally seeing a fall in the shiny stuff this morning after its recent surge higher With US and UK lawmakers now unlikely to approve any immediate strikes on Syria despite govt wishes gold has fallen to USD1405 before finding a few bids to rally to 1409 On Wednesday gold posted 3 1/2 month highs of 1433.31, 21% higher than the 3 year lows of 1180.71 posted in June. http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Gold-H1-29-August.gif XAUUSD H1 29 August

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European equity markets open higher

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 03:07 am

* FTSE +0.1% * DAX +0.4% * CAC 40 +0.3% * IBEX +0.3% * FTMIB +0.5%

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Stop loss orders accelerate USD move higher

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 03:02 am

EURUSD stops through 1.3290-00 triggering general USD move higher as fears of imminent strike in Syria subside,reducing safe haven demand USDJPY has taken out offers at 98.00 with stop loss buying to 98.19 so far USDCHF up to 0.9279 GBPUSD clinging onto bids around 1.5500

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French business climate august: 98 vs 96 exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 02:49 am

* 95 prev Better than expected but not helping the euro EURUSD now down at 1.3372

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EU's Rehn says EZ GDP data confirms beginning of gradual but still subdued recovery

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 02:46 am

* premature to say crisis is over * banking union in coming months is key to making progress EU Commission's chief economist speaking at a conference at Alpbach Let's be clear, especially in view of the dramatic levels on unemployment in many parts of Europe there is no room for complacency.Pronouncements that the crisis is over are premature to say the least Euro lower on the dovish/cautious talk EURUSD triggered stops below 1.3300 Currently 1.3286 EURGBP slapped through bids at 0.8565 to post 0.8557. currently 0.8560 EURJPY took out bids at 130.00 to post 129.97.. currently 130.16 Thin markets exacerbating the moves

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Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.2% in early trading

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 02:05 am

* DAX futures down 0.1% * CAC40 futures down 0.2% Bund futures down 2 at 140.28

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Nikkei closes up 0.91% at 13,459.71

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 02:02 am

* +121.25 * high 13,463.14 * low 13,364.82 * USDJPY 97.80

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Indian PM will make statement on economy on Friday

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 01:58 am

Out on reuters Also * Indian trade minister denies he has said that India should mortgage or auction gold I doubt whether either comment will have any immediate impact Let's see if they announce any new measures tomorrow. Unlikely though.

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BOJ's Morimoto says Japan's economy moving in line with forecast

By Mike Paterson on Aug 29, 2013 01:52 am

The dep gov's reply when asked if BOJ needed to ease more to cushion effect of prompt sales tax hike * will scrutinize capex, household income data to determine whether Japan's economy is recovering * global economic outlook remains biggest threat to domestic recovery More of the same from Mr Morimoto USDJPY a little higher at 97.80 as Nikkei pushes up toward the close

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ForexLive.com Daily Digest

2013-08-28T17:01:00.001+08:00

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08/28/2013

Syria: UN's Ban Ki-Moon says UN inspection team "needs time to do its job"

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:57 am

UN sec gen on Reuters The inspection team has now arrived on site after 2 days of delays (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/27/un-inspectors-face-further-delay-in-visiting-chemical-weapons-site/) Whether the US, UK and France wait for their findings remains to be seen

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Cable breaks down through 1.5500 again

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:46 am

GBPUSD now 1.5493 as EURGBP demand, exacerbated by the usual month-end front running, now tries to take out sell interest at 0.8630 More behind that to 0.8650 as I've already highlighted Cable buyers next at 1.5480

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EURJPY orders 28 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:30 am

Currently 130.32 Sellers 130.80 131.00 131.20 131.50 131.80 132.00 Buyers 130.00 129.80 129.65 129.50 129.20 129.00

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EURGBP orders 28 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:24 am

I posted on this pair earlier (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/28/eurgbp-still-trying-to-forger-higher/) Currently 0.8621 having chewed its way to 0.8629 Sellers 0.8630 0.8640 0.8650 0.8985 0.8700 Buyers 0.8600 0.8585 0.8550 0.8540 0.8520 0.8510 0.8500

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GBPUSD orders 28 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:19 am

Currently also going nowhere fast at 1.5516 Sellers 1.5530 1.5555 1.5570 1.5590 1.5600 1.5610 1.5620 1.5650 Buyers 1.5500 1.5480 1.5460 1.5450 1.5425 1.5400

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EZ M3 annual money supply growth july: +2.2% vs +2.1% exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:08 am

* +2.4% prev revised up from +2.3% * M3 3month moving average +2.5% vs +2.8% prev * private loans -1.9% vs -1.6% exp/prev Not a lot here either to cause any impact EURUSD 1.3380

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AUDUSD orders 28 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:05 am

Currently 0.8924 having failed to penetrate stops below 0.8900 earlier Sellers 0.8940 0.8955 0.8975 0.8990 0.9000 0.9020 0.9050 Buyers 0.8895 ( stop loss selling if breached) 0.8880 0.8865 0.8850 0.8830 0.8800

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Italian retail sales june: m/m -0.2% vs +0.1% prev

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 04:02 am

* y/y -3.0% vs -1.2% prev revised down from -1.1% June data not going to make any impact here EURUSD still 1.3379

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EURUSD orders 28 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 03:56 am

Currently going nowhere fast at 1.3380. Offers still building up above 1.3400 Sellers 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3450 1.3470 1.3500 Buyers 1.3365 1.3350 1.3330 1.3320 1.3310 1.3300 1.3285

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USDJPY orders 28 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 03:51 am

Currently on the rise at 97.54 Sellers 97.70 97.90 98.00 98.35 98.55 98.80 99.00 99.15 Buyers 97.25 97.10 97.00 96.85 96.65 96.50 96.30 96.00

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AUDUSD under pressure again

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 03:29 am

Not a lot happening in the other major pairs but the aussie dollar has come in for another slap this morning as Syrian-led risk off trades continue to dominate Low post just now of 0.8898 before finding some support again Buyers reported at 0.8890 , 0.8880, 0.8865 Currently 0.8907 AUDJPY 86.76

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Shanghai comp index closes down 0.11% at 2101.30

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 03:10 am

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European equity markets open lower

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 03:08 am

Still weighed by Syrian crisis * FTSE -0.2% * DAX -0.5% * CAC 40 -0.3% * IBEX -0.4% * FTMIB flat

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BOJ's Iwata says they will continue with QE until inflation stabilizes at 2%

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 02:41 am

BOJ dep governor on reuters * aims to achieve 2% target as soon as possible in the 2 year time frame * there are sign that some prices are bottoming out or rising * gains in stocks and declines in yen are necessary for BOJ policy to spread through economy * will take some time for BOJ policy to work so fiscal policy is needed to support growth * increase in inflation expectations can spur demand for foreign currencies and weaken yen * decline in real expected interest rates can lead to higher capital expenditure * may take 1-2 years to see real increase in bank lending due to large cash reserves in corporate sector Blah de blah Nothing new here USDJPY 97.25

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Syria: What are the military options?

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 02:25 am

As foreign military intervention looms large the BBC has this informative piece (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23849386) on the options available

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Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.7% in early trading

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 02:10 am

* FTSE futures -0.5% * DAX futures -0.6% * CAC 40 futures -0.3% Bund futures up 25 at 140.79

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Nikkei closes down 1.51% at 13,338.46

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 02:06 am

* -203.91 * high 13,392.57 * low 13,188.14 * USDJPY 97.24 3rd day in a row of losses caused by concern over Syria and the subsequent flight into yen Lowest close since June 27

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Swiss UBS consumption indicator july: +1.41 vs +1.44 prev

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 02:01 am

Not a game changer USDCHF 0.9185 EURCHF 1.2287

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German GFK consumer sentiment september: +6.9 vs +7.1 exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 02:00 am

* +7 prev (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/07/30/german-gfk-consumer-sentiment-july-7-vs-6-9-exp/) * import prices m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% exp -0.8 prev * y/y -2.6% vs -2.5% exp -2.2% prev EURUSD little changed at 1.3377 on the slightly worse than expected figure

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Nikkei trying to retrieve session losses

By Mike Paterson on Aug 28, 2013 01:29 am

Now 13,334.16 just off recently posted highs of 13, 355.12 Down 1.53% on the day though still USDJPY responding and firmer again at 97.33

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ForexLive.com Daily Digest

2013-08-27T17:03:00.001+08:00

Your daily digest of ForexLive.com articles.

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08/27/2013

EURJPY orders 27 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 04:51 am

Currently 0ff its 130.43 session lows at 130.67 Sellers 131.00 131.20 131.50 131.80 132.00 Buyers 130.20 130.00 129.80 129.65 129.50 129.20 129.00 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/EURJPY-orders-27-aug.jpg EURJPY orders 27 aug

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Indian rupee breaks new highs through 66.00 as emerging markets get battered again

By Ryan Littlestone on Aug 27, 2013 04:50 am

66.07 the high on a mixture of foreign exit flows and importer month end demand demand. No sign of intervention yet. Stock markets are crumbling around the region also with the Indian Sensex down 3.31% or 613 points to 17945. The Nifty 50 also off 3.32%, down 181 pts and the Indonesian stock market down 3.89% or -160pts. http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Nifty-27-08-2013.png

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AUDUSD orders 27 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 04:44 am

Currently 0.8945 just off its session lows of 0.8937 Sellers 0.8960 0.8975 0.8990 0.9000 0.9020 0.9030 0.9050 Buyers 0.8930 0.8920 0.8900 0.8890 0.8880 0.8865 0.8850 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/audusd-orders-27-aug.jpg AUDUSD orders 27 August

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Gold still climbing the trendline

By Ryan Littlestone on Aug 27, 2013 04:36 am

http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/goldh4-27-08-2013.png Gold daily chart 27 August 2013 Breaking through $1400 and looking to push on as it touches a high of $1412.75 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/goldh4-27-08-2013-2.png Gold H4 chart 27 08 2013 On the H4 chart we're above the trendline and it should provide minor support. With Syria problems front and centre we can expect increased volatility.

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Fund seller of EURUSD

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 04:33 am

Further to Ryan's post (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/27/eurusd-crashes-to-1-3336/) I'm now hearing that a speculative fund used the IFO-led rally to unload a long EURUSD position Not huge size but enough to trigger stop loss selling from short-term/intra-day longs Currently still looking heavy at 1.3330 but buying interest down to 1.3300 with larger interest at 1.3280 as per my orderboard post (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/27/eurusd-orders-27-august/) I'm sure the general risk-off sentiment from Sryia concerns playing its part too

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Summer doldrums

By Jim Trott on Aug 27, 2013 04:27 am

So, the FX market is in the middle of the summer doldrums. This has happened many times before, and will do so again. The best reaction is always `when in doubt – stay out`. But in the mind of traders, periods like this just sharpen the senses; there is a sense of an impending move and everyone wants to be on it. This should always be a warning signal, and come with a government health warning attached, because often a move can get exaggerated as the market tries to make `something happen`. So, it is usually worth scrutinising this `break out` as and when it occurs, perhaps a little more thoroughly. I get the sense that Cable may just be that animal. The (perhaps) counter intuitive bulls, have tried hard to push the pair higher, but now one senses that a generally weaker $ may be needed for that to happen. Ideal circumstances I would think for the Governors remarks tomorrow to possibly be interpreted in an overly bearish fashion. It looks to be the line of least resistance, and with the market as twitchy as it is………

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EURGBP orders 27 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 04:26 am

Currently back down to 0.8590 after 0.8617 highs earlier Sellers 0.8620 0.8630 0.8640 0.8650 0.8685 0.8700 Buyers 0.8585 0.8565 0.8550 0.8540 0.8520 0.8510 0.8500 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/EURGBP-ORDERS-27-AUG.jpg EURGBP orders 27 August

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EUR/USD crashes to 1.3336

By Ryan Littlestone on Aug 27, 2013 04:18 am

It's all going south. EUR/USD tumbles to 1.3332 now from 1.3385. European stocks are in the red and on the lows, USD/JPY falling alongside AUD/USD, EUR/CHF. Not seeing any news but there are some comments coming out from an IFO economist. * Economic recovery of eurozone could be an extra stimulus * Euphoria in construction sector fading but business remains solid Nothing in that to trigger the moves but EUR/USD falls further to 1.3323. Cable down to 1.5507. USD/JPY tacks on 13 pips to 97.89 from the low 97.76 USD/CHF is up to 0.9225 from 0.9184 EUR/CHF below 1.2300 touching 1.2287

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GBPUSD orders 27 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 04:12 am

Currently 1.5526 as EURGBP runs into 0.8620 resistance and EURUSD dragged lower Sellers 1.5560 1.5570 1.5590 1.5600 1.5610 1.5620 1.5650 Buyers 1.5520 1.5510 1.5500 1.5485 1.5460 1.5450 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GBPUSD-ORDERS-27-AUG.jpg GBPUSD orders 27 August

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Technical levels 27 August

By Ryan Littlestone on Aug 27, 2013 04:11 am

Good morning. Here are today's levels. http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/27-08-2013-09-08-47.png Technical levels 27 August 2013

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German IFO business climate august: 107.5 vs 107 exp

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 04:01 am

* 106.2prev (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/07/25/german-ifo-business-climate-july-106-2-vs-106-1-exp/) * IFO current climate 112 vs 11o.9 110.1 prev * IFO expectations 103.3 vs 103 exp EURUSD 1.3384 from 1.3373 on the slightly better than expected news Currently back down to 1.3376

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EURGBP breaks higher and triggers stop losses

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 03:46 am

I highlighted the potential attack on 0.8600 a little earlier (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/27/cable-posting-new-session-lows/) Stops triggered through 0.8610. High post so far 0.8617 in a rush More sell orders noted at 0.8620 through to 0.8650 Currently 0.8613 Cable lower again at 1.5526 after 1.5522 low post

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USDJPY orders 27 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 03:42 am

Currently 98.08 Sellers 98.35 98.55 98.80 98.90 99.00 99.15 99.25 99.50 Buyers 98.00 97.90 97.80 97.70 97.50 97.30 97.00 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/usdjpy-orders-27-aug.jpg USDJPY orders 27 August

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EURUSD orders 27 August

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 03:34 am

Currently 1.3375 Sellers 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3430 1.3450 Buyers 1.3350 1.3335 1.3320 1.3310 1.3300 1.3280 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/eurusd-orders-27-aug.jpg EURUSD orders 27 August

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Shanghai comp index closes up 0.34% at 2103.56

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 03:11 am

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European equity markets open lower

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 03:03 am

* FTSE -0.1% * DAX -0.7% * CAC40 -0.5% * IBEX -0.6% * FTMIB -0.4%

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Cable posting new session lows

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 02:50 am

Not off to a good start so far More GBP selling ahead of expected dovish tones from speech tomorrow by BOE governor Carney GBPUSD down to 1.5548 from 1.5580 as EURGBP launches another attack on 0.8600 Currently 0.8595

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Indian rupee hits record low vs USD

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 02:44 am

The pair traded through 65.56 earlier as India's woes continue Add: Further decline has prompted RBI intervention around 65.90 Currently 65.68

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AUDUSD bounces off new session lows but not convincing just yet

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 02:41 am

Aussie feeling the Syrian heat again it would appear AUDUSD posted new session lows 0.8946 just now and currently 0.8956 Good size support between 0.8900-20 behind last week's low of 0.8932 but sellers still seen on any rally to 0.9000 and above AUDJPY just off session lows at 87.93 EURAUD off 1.4940 highs at 1.4922

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Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.5% in early trading

By Mike Paterson on Aug 27, 2013 02:11 am

* DAX futures down 0.5% * CAC 40 futures down 0.6% Bund futures down 5 at 140.00

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Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-26T17:06:00.001+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Buba’s Weidmann says EU crisis is far from over
BOE’s Bean says sending clear signal rates will not increase anytime soon
EUR/USD back below the 200 wma
ECB’s Liikanen sees a relatively strong US recovery
European session orders 26 August
European stock market open 26 August
Technical levels Monday 26 August
Syria’s Assad warns America over possible attacks
USD/JPY slipping as Nikkei slides
UBS sees AUD/USD at 0.8800 in 3 months
Moody’s keeping an eye on German banks
Option levels 26 August
ForexLive Asia-Pacific wrap: Aussie shakes off early stumble
Chinese stocks underpinning Australian dollar climb
Book recommendations from a solid source
EUR/USD orders and technical analysis August 26, 2013
Germany stops pretendings Greece won’t need more money
Chinese stats chief points finger at QE for high commodity prices
Japan to decide on sales tax increase by October 7
The last place you want to look for an honest assessment of the Chinese economy

Buba’s Weidmann says EU crisis is far from over

Posted: 26 Aug 2013 01:46 AM PDT

Bundesbank head, Jens Weidmann was interviewed by Germany’s Handelsblatt.

The news has been out over the weekend so I’ll just summarise the main points.

With strong words on the EU crisis he says;

The structural problems in the crisis countries have built up over a long period of time. They can’t be resolved in just a few quarters, but will need years. It’s factually wrong to say the crisis is over and will only lead to an easing up of reform efforts

On the subject of low rates;

My assumption is not that interest rateswill remain low for years, not least because the economic impulse of ultra-easy monetary policy will fade with time and the risks for financial stability will increase

He also spoke about Greece and the possibility of another round of aid and debt restructuring saying that;

another restructure would only see us facing the same problem in 5 years and is counterproductive and a wrong signal to program countries

Further comments are just crossing the wires from a speech he is giving in Berlin

ECB nond purchases would weaken countries own responsibility to solve problems
ECB should preserve price stability to contribute to crisis solution
Monetary policy has entered unknown dangerous ground and can only provide time to solve crisis
Banks must be allowed to fail
ECB Monetary policy has already made significant contribution

BOE’s Bean says sending clear signal rates will not increase anytime soon

Posted: 26 Aug 2013 01:45 AM PDT

Further to Jackson Hole comments yesterday via CNBC and Bloomberg/Reuters, deputy governor Charlie Bean has more to say.

QE always an option on the table
A little but surprised on market reaction to guidance
BOE not trying to manipulate market
BOE giving clear signal rate rise not imminent
7% unemployment threshold is sensible
Guidance valuable when recovery gathering pace
Sees no sign of UK housing boom emerging

The problem with these lot is that they never see a “boom” until they are in the middle of it. Even if we do get a boom, if the guidance thresholds aren’t met then they will be able to do little about it.

Cable taking a little run up to 1.5580 on the blurb about low rates.

EUR/USD back below the 200 wma

Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:52 AM PDT

Not closing above the 200 wma has seen some downward pressure come in and we’ve fallen below it early in the European session.

EUR/USD weekly chart 26 August 2013

We fell into bids at 1.3365 and while there is minor technical support at 1.3333/37 the broken May 2011 resistance line will be a fairly good test for support with strong bids seen at 1.3300.

1.3400 is still containing the long running range despite quick breaks above but the break of the May trendline could open the door for a push higher. With a raft of US data out this week we could have some wild moves as the taper mob start fine tuning the FOMC expectations.

ECB’s Liikanen sees a relatively strong US recovery

Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:35 AM PDT

Says EU showing uncertain positive signals
Market situation has eased slightly
Finland’s structural problems deep even as crisis eases

European session orders 26 August

Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:29 AM PDT

As Mike’s off today I’ve just knocked up the orders on one page.

FX market orders 26 August 2013

European stock market open 26 August

Posted: 26 Aug 2013 12:24 AM PDT

FTSE Eurofirst +0.1%
Dax +0.1%
Cac +0.1%
Ibex -0.2%
FTSE Mib -0.3%

Technical levels Monday 26 August

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 11:13 PM PDT

Here are the levels for today.

Technical levels Monday 26 August 2013

Syria’s Assad warns America over possible attacks

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 10:33 PM PDT

Says failure awaits the United States if it attacks Syria and that western statements on chemical weapons use are illogical and politically motivated.

Russia also voices it’s concern over possible US military action and urges restraint.

Further ramping up of possible military talk will obviously see oil and gold higher but I don’t think the US is interested in a fight. Given the current ill feeling between Russia and the US I’d be more worried about that heating up further with Syria as the excuse.

USD/JPY slipping as Nikkei slides

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 10:16 PM PDT

Down to 98.58 as the Nikkei falls into the red down at 13642 and is just 56 odd ticks from the low at 13586.

UBS sees AUD/USD at 0.8800 in 3 months

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 09:50 PM PDT

They drop their 1 month and 3 month forecasts to 0.88 from 0.90. Back in Feb their Q3 2013 was 1.000.

They also say that the RBA may cut if the currency fails to decline further

Moody’s keeping an eye on German banks

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 09:30 PM PDT

Moody’s say that German Q2 GDP of 0.7% and low rates isn’t credit positive and is leading to weak loan demand and hurting banks.

German companies relying on own internal cash flows, diversifying funding in debt capital markets.
Lending margins are the lowest in Europe for German banks

Option levels 26 August

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 09:12 PM PDT

Morning all.

Hope you all had a good weekend?

Here are today’s option levels at play for expiry at the NY cut 14.00 gmt.

EUR/GBP 0.8555

AUD/USD 0.8925, 0.8930*, 0.9050*, 0.9150

EUR/USD 1.3315, 1.3335, 1.3350, 1.3360, 1.3420

USD/JPY 97.00, 98.00, 98.50, 100.00

USD/CHF 0.9350

USD/CAD 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0460, 1.0465, 1.0570

*Updated

ForexLive Asia-Pacific wrap: Aussie shakes off early stumble

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 08:49 PM PDT

Forex headlines for August 26, 2013:

China stats chief: Seeing clearer signs of growth stabilization
New Zealand trade deficit $774 million vs $16 million deficit expected
ECB's Demetriades says a rate cut is 'still in the cards'’
Japan July corporate service price index +0.4% y/y, as expected
S&P sees New Zealand current account deficits up to 6% of GDP by 2015
Japan to decide on sales tax increase by October 7
Amgen/Onyx pharmaceutical merger announced
Nikkei +0.1%
Shanghai Comp +1.4%
NZD and AUD lead, CAD lags

Early indications pointed to a large drop in USD/JPY to start the week. The pair touched 98.17 in pre-market trading from 98.72 at the close on Friday. From there it was a steady climb higher and the pair touched as high as 98.85 before sliding back to unchanged.

The euro was in a deep slumber, scaling between 1.3378 and 1.3395 with the latest move another failed attempt at 1.3380. Not sure I would read too much into that because there hasn’t been any urgency so far. Cable has similarly ranged from 1.5563 to 1.5589.

The Australian dollar struggled in early trading, falling to 0.9012 and hitting some weak stops but an upbeat tone in Chinese stocks is lending the Australian dollar a hand and the latest push extended to 0.9044.

Gold sent out a head fake to start the week. It climbed to $1407 minutes after the weekly open but was slammed down to $1391 shortly after. Potential conflict in Syria was the reason for rises in gold and oil.

The UK is closed and the European calendar is thin so the potential for fireworks is low. I’ll be back for US trading and the durable goods orders report. The WSJ has a solid preview here.

Chinese stocks underpinning Australian dollar climb

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 08:35 PM PDT

The Aussie close to the highs of the day as Chinese stocks gain momentum.

Soothing words from the Statistics chief have led to a 1.4% rally in the Shanghai Composite and that’s lending a hand to AUD and NZD. Friday’s high of 0.9050 is the near-term resistance level to watch. Spot at 0.9040.

Book recommendations from a solid source

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 08:24 PM PDT

I often get asked for book recommendations and I usually point people the Market Wizards series but The Big Picture blog has a nice list of alternatives. I’ve read everyone one on the list and they’re all solid except Reminiscences of a Stock Operator which is entertaining but I always thought lacked a certain authenticity. Freakonomics is also more of a pop book than anything particularly interesting to a trader.

EUR/USD orders and technical analysis August 26, 2013

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 07:45 PM PDT

The euro has been quiet so far in Asian trading, stuck in a range between 1.3378-1.3395.

Bids at Friday’s low of 1.3334, more at 1.3300 and just below. Better demand at 1.3285/80 with stops below
Offers at Friday’s high of 1.3410, stretching to 1.3420 (good size). A mix of buy stops and offers up to the 6-month high at 1.3452

Technically, EUR/USD wasn’t able to take advantage of the break of the June high of 1.3416 but the fall back after the breakout was hardly a rejection. Every time the euro begins to struggle it finds new life, making it very difficult to bet against.

One factor slightly working against longs is the positioning data from the CFTC. It shows us that euro longs are suddenly en vogue, meaning the short-squeeze rallies of the past are probably over. At times, when sentiment on the euro shifts to neutral, it’s time to go the other way.

Germany stops pretendings Greece won’t need more money

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 07:34 PM PDT

Earlier today German fin min Schaeuble was out saying Greece will “most likely” need another aid program while saying it will be “much lower” than previous ones.

Merkel & Co have been grilled about Greece ahead of Sept 22 elections. They have been saying no more money was coming but opponents attacked them because of the complete implausibility of Greek finances improving.

Chinese stats chief points finger at QE for high commodity prices

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 07:18 PM PDT

Chinese statistic bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun, in addition to his earlier statement:

QE raises commodity prices and pressures emerging markets
Overcapacity is still a serious problem in China
Overcapacity keeps PPI in negative territory
US QE exit should consider emerging markets

The Fed’s Lockhart isn’t making any friends in political or central banking circles with this comment:

"You have to remember that we are a legal creature of Congress and that we only have a mandate to concern ourselves with the interest of the United States," Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, told Bloomberg Television's Michael McKee. "Other countries simply have to take that as a reality and adjust to us if that's something important for their economies."

Japan to decide on sales tax increase by October 7

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 06:57 PM PDT

Japanese advisory panels are meeting this week to discuss a planned increase of the sales tax to 8% from 5% and then officials will huddle to make a decision.

The Prime Minister hasn't decided yet whether [a decision] will come in late September or early October. At the latest, I think it will be before the APEC leader's summit that starts in Indonesia on Oct. 7,” Economy Minister AkiraAmari said on NHK television's Sunday Debate program.

Amari said sticking with the planned sales tax increase is best but the potential problems need to be examined.

On Thursday, there were reports that Japan is considering a tax break on factory equipment which could be something to offset the effect on companies.

The last place you want to look for an honest assessment of the Chinese economy

Posted: 25 Aug 2013 06:45 PM PDT

But we’ll entertain the headlines from Chinese statistic bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun anyway:

Chinese economy showing positive changes
Seeing clearer signs of growth stabilization
Sees some improvements in the external environment
China PPI shows improving demand for commodities

I would love to dispute these comments but Chinese stocks are 11% from the June bottom so something good might be happening there. When did I get so cynical?

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-25T17:05:00.001+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

High Frequency Trading algorithms are not exotically advanced machine learning techniques, they’re shockingly simple
Japan’s PM Abe facing resistance over third arrow medical reforms from doctors’ lobby
Jackson Hole: More from BOJ’s Kuroda
Jacksone Hole: Fed’s Kocherlakota: Says the weak economy is to ‘be with us for some time’
US bulls running rampant
Tip from a billionaire: going to the bathroom wastes too much time
Jackson Hole: Emerging countries must be able to control capital flows -study
Italy politics: Berlusconi’s party says his removal from parliament is ‘unthinkable’
ECB’s Asmussen: Greece must press on with reforms despite pain
Jackson Hole: Kuroda says Bank of Japan’s policy measures are working
Jackson Hole: Federal Reserve’s Lockhart says he is ‘comfortable’ with cautious September taper
Jackson Hole – debate on the risks of withdrawing global liquidity
Jackson Hole: Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean says jobless threshold should temper yield tightening
Australia election: 2 weeks to go and polls swinging more towards the current opposition
Forward guidance: The latest fall fashion from your central bank
ForexLive Americas wrap: New home sales plunge
CAD or NZD, which commodity currency will bottom first?
NZD/CHF was the worst performing trade this week
Bank of Italy sees first signs of a slow economic recovery
Caption contest: Bernanke after finding out QE has been ineffective

High Frequency Trading algorithms are not exotically advanced machine learning techniques, they’re shockingly simple

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 08:28 PM PDT

Here’s an interesting little weekend item on High Frequency Trading algorithms, in which the writer says that the best HFT firms now trade in around 2 microseconds (“context: sound takes about 150ish microseconds to travel from the back of your throat to your mouth”) in signal to trade time, and that doing advanced calculation work on a computer takes a lot longer than that… and thus

The strategies employed by the most advanced HFT firms are shockingly simple in terms of Maths or Stats: think exponential moving averages, with a handful of if statements and safety checks…

when faced with the decision to produce a reliable, stable strategy that provides good liquidity, or simply the fastest adequate one possible, speed wins every time.

More here

Japan’s PM Abe facing resistance over third arrow medical reforms from doctors’ lobby

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 07:46 PM PDT

Not surprisingly, the most difficult of Abe’s three arrows is proving to be reform of the Japanese economy. This time its resistance to medical sector reforms from within Abe’s constituency, in this case Japan’s doctors:

The reform plans include changes to Japan’s universal health insurance system.

Says Reuters:

On one side of the argument is the 165,000-member JMA and health ministry officials, who say they want to protect the cherished principle of universality in a system that has been the envy of much of the developed world.

Lined up against them, and pushing Abe to go further, are advocates of more radical reform who accuse the small family doctors who make up the bulk of the JMA’s membership of wanting protection from competition from larger clinics and hospitals.

The JMA also worries that Abe’s push for Tokyo to join the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact would give impetus to such changes if Washington pushes in negotiations for market-oriented reforms to healthcare

Jackson Hole: More from BOJ’s Kuroda

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 07:38 PM PDT

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said monetary easing by a central bank does not necessarily lead to cross-border capital outflows from that country, saying:

“Almost all base money provided through monetary policy will be accumulated in the form of deposits with a central bank”
“Even if a country eases monetary conditions, this does not necessarily mean that money being provided directly ‘spills over overseas’”

There is (a little) more here at Reuters.

Kuroda’s comments are interesting in light of the falling markets and currencies in emerging markets, which has blamed on imminent winding-back of Federal reserve asset purchases

Jacksone Hole: Fed’s Kocherlakota: Says the weak economy is to ‘be with us for some time’

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 07:09 PM PDT

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Naryana Kocherlakota said:

it is “really a stretch to think” that the Fed has lowered rates too much
Given the high rates of unemployment and low levels of inflation, “I think what we’re seeing is that we have not been able to lower rates as much as we’d like to”
Says the Fed will need to maintain a highly stimulative monetary policy for some time to come

More at MNI

US bulls running rampant

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:59 PM PDT

4,000 people have taken part in a US version of Spain’s running of the bulls in Pamplona.

Its part of a 10-city bull-running tour
It cost $30 to take part in the run ($30 is really cheap to dodge the bulls, just ask all the stockmarket bears over the past 4 years )
The run is over a quarter mile dirt track

More here: Four thousand run from the bulls in Virginia event

Tip from a billionaire: going to the bathroom wastes too much time

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:53 PM PDT

Michael Bloomberg has handed out some tips on his formula for success:

You make your own luck
The harder you work, the luckier you get
Try to be the first one in in the morning and the last one to leave at night
Take the fewest vacations
Take the least time away from the desk to go to the bathroom or have lunch

More: Mayor Bloomberg: Bladder Control Helped Me Become A Billionaire

Jackson Hole: Emerging countries must be able to control capital flows -study

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:49 PM PDT

A paper presented at the Jackson Hole central banks symposium on August 24 2013says emerging market nations “can be adversely affected by large swings in investment, and must therefore develop tools to control credit flows or risk relinquishing any independent monetary policy”.

Quite a timely paper given the fall in emerging markets and their currencies since the imminent Fed ‘taper’ has come to broad market acceptance.

More here at Reuters

Italy politics: Berlusconi’s party says his removal from parliament is ‘unthinkable’

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:44 PM PDT

Angelino Alfano, secretary of Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PDL) warned Prime Minister Enrico Letta this week that the party could bring down the government if the center-left Democratic Party (PD) voted to throw Berlusconi out
There is a vote due in September on whether to expel Berlusconi from parliament

More threats and intimidation here

ECB’s Asmussen: Greece must press on with reforms despite pain

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:40 PM PDT

European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen has told Greek newspaper To Vima that Greece can achieve a primary budget surplus this year and growth in 2014 if it sticks to economic reforms.

Asmussen was in Athens this week to meet senior government officials.

Jackson Hole: Kuroda says Bank of Japan’s policy measures are working

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:35 PM PDT

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking during a panel discussion on unconventional monetary policy at Jackson Hole said:

Bank of Japan’s policy measures have already started to exert their intended effects

The BOJ embarked on a policy of "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing" back in early April, part of which involves buying around 7 trillion yen ($US70.9 billion) in bonds each month to expand the monetary base by 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen per year.

Jackson Hole: Federal Reserve’s Lockhart says he is ‘comfortable’ with cautious September taper

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:34 PM PDT

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart, speaking on the sidelines of the annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole said:

“I can get comfortable with September, providing we don’t get any really worrisome signals out of the economy between now and the 18th of September”

“The data are essentially a way of testing a basic set of assumptions. And I can get comfortable with an initial step in terms of tapering, as long as I am comfortable that we are on that basic flight path for the economy,”

There’s that data-dependency talk again.

The next FOMC meeting is September 17-18. Primary dealers expect the Fed to slow the pace of asset purchases by $15 billion in an announcement after this meeting.

Jackson Hole – debate on the risks of withdrawing global liquidity

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:33 PM PDT

The second day of the two-day Jackson Hole symposium was devoted to central bankers debating the threats posed by global liquidity.

Reuters have an interesting article covering some of the points made, with much focus on the flood of money into emerging markets courtesy of ultra-cheap liquidity, a flood that is now receding and triggering slides in emerging markets their currencies.

Jackson Hole: Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean says jobless threshold should temper yield tightening

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:32 PM PDT

Plenty of comments out of Jackson Hole this weekend:

Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean said a tightening in U.K. gilt yields should be restrained by its pledge not to consider raising interest rates before unemployment falls to 7 percent.

Also:

The knowledge that monetary policy will not be tightened until the U.K.'s fledgling recovery is secured should boost confidence

The Bank of England gave forward guidance by projecting it will keep its benchmark rate at 0.5 percent until late 2016 as it waits for the jobless rate to fall from 7.8 percent.

Bloomberg, and Reuters

Australia election: 2 weeks to go and polls swinging more towards the current opposition

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 06:31 PM PDT

Australia's opposition Liberal-National coalition has been in front for all of the campaign so far, and is widening its lead, according to a Herald-Nielsen poll published in the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper Saturday:

Support for the coalition rose to 53 percent on a two-party preferred basis (from 52 percent two weeks earlier), putting the ruling Labour party down one point to 47 percent

As I’ve said before, market perceptions are that a win for the current opposition will give a sentiment boost, which should be a positive for the economy (at least in the short-term), and that the market also wants to see a clear win for a majority government. The current Australian government is a minority government, and has run a full 3 year term in government with support from a handful of independents

Forward guidance: The latest fall fashion from your central bank

Posted: 24 Aug 2013 12:36 AM PDT

for·ward [pronounced: fawr-werd]

adverb Also, forwards.

1. toward or at a place, point, or time in advance; onward; ahead: to move forward; from this day forward; to look forward.

2. toward the front: Let’s move forward so we can hear better.

3. into view or consideration; out; forth: He brought forward several good suggestions.

4. toward the bow or front of a vessel or aircraft.

5. ahead

guid·ance [pronounced: gahyd-ns]

noun

1. the act or function of guiding; leadership; direction.

2. advice or counseling, especially that provided for students choosing a course of study or preparing for a vocation.

3. supervised care or assistance, especially therapeutic help in the treatment of minor emotional disturbances.

4. something that guides.

5. the process by which the flight of a missile or rocket may be altered in speed and direction in response to controls situated either wholly in the projectile or partly at a base.

Forward Guidance is this season's must have accessory. Adopted by central bankers all over the world, FG (let's call it by an acronym as finance is full of them), is all the rage.

And yet like so many fashions (harem pants, ponchos, juicy tracksuits, UGG boots, jeggings) in retrospect it will be dammed. History has been unkind to many must-have-it-fads, FG is likely to experience the same.

: harem pants

: The must have item of the fall

So what do I have against FG?

In my opinion:

It does not work to bring down long rates.

Its effect even on future expectations of short rates is limited.

I am sceptical in its ability to stimulate demand.

And it doesn't provide much forward guidance either.

Apart from that it may be a marvellous!

According to the Federal Reserve, forward guidance supports the economic recovery by putting "downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and thereby lower(ing) the cost of credit for households and businesses, and also help(ing) improve broader financial conditions."

Remember of course that Central Bankers only control short rates, not the longer rates that are set by the market. So forward guidance is an attempt by central bankers to influence the long end of the yield curve, of which many financial products are priced.

Effect on long rates:

At its December meeting of last year, the Fed moved from date based guidance (Fed Funds rate would stay low until at least through to mid 2015) to guidance based on economic variables (unemployment staying above 6.5% and future inflation "no more than 0.5% point above the committee's 2% long run goal"). And yet the 10 year UST rate has gone from 1.75% at the beginning of the year to 2.89% on Friday. The market is much more worried about Fed tapering and ignoring Forward Guidance on tightening.

In the UK, Mark Carney arrived at the beginning of July and by August had officially announced forward guidance based on the unemployment rate too. And yet the 10 year gilt yield – like the UST – has also increased from 2.4% on 1^st July to 2.7% on Friday. Buyers of long dated gilts are worrying that forward guidance (low interest rates for longer) will allow a higher inflation rate.

In Europe, the big moves in long term rates have been driven by another policy altogether – the OMT. At the height of the EZ crisis 10 year borrowing costs for both Italy and Spain went to around 6.5-7.5%. That's despite a 0.5% rate set by the ECB. It was Mario Draghi's "Whatever It Takes" speech that has really brought these rates down and not his latterly adopted policy of forward guidance.

Effect on short rates:

Clearly the arrival of Mark Carney has had a dramatic effect on the expectation of future base rates in the UK. Before he arrived markets were just about pricing in the first rate rise by the end of this year. His speech 4 days into office changed all that, together with his forward guidance speech in August. At one point markets were pricing in the first rate rise in 2016 as Carney proclaimed. But after the stronger recent economic data, markets are now pricing in a rate rise by the end of 2014 – much sooner than Carney's 2016. All the thousands of market players don't believe Carney's Forward Guidance either. I am not alone in my scepticism.

And in the eurozone, Mario Draghi has a term for markets ignoring his FG –"passive tightening". When rate markets react to stronger EZ economic data, Draghi gets irritated and tries to talk them out of it. And of course, Draghi's recent Forward Guidance was driven by the markets anticipating tightening sooner than he sees.

Effect to stimulate demand:

Fed: "forward guidance helps to make monetary policy more transparent and predictable to the public". This is also what Mark Carney believes but I am a little more skeptical.

Does FG stimulate companies to spend? An educated Finance Director will know far more about central bank policy and rate expectations than an ordinary citizen. But what we know from the downturn is that companies have en masse paid back debt, strengthened their financial position and refinanced debt to low interest rates. What we haven't seen is a boom in capital expenditure – quite the opposite – profit margins are high because money has not been invested. What businesses bosses really need to see is signs of a stronger economy to get them to spend their cash.

So does the General Public react to Forward Guidance? Does Carney speak to the people? Again I am sceptical. And that is because time and time again we discover that most ordinary citizens are remarkably financial illiterate. This week saw another bank mis-selling scandal in the UK. 23 million card and identity fraud protection policies were mis-sold to 7mn customers. Well there are only 63mn people (including children) in the UK. Almost a third of households bought a policy that was not needed as once a credit or debit card is reported stolen or lost, then it's the bank that takes the losses, not the individual. With such a lack of financial knowledge, can central bankers really speak to ordinary consumers on forward guidance? A Markit survey of approximately 1500 individuals suggests that Carney's words have effected people's expectations of future interest rates. The number of households anticipating a rate rise within the next two years fell to 40% compared with 53% in July. But note that most are still expecting a rate rise sooner than Carney's 2016 – again a bunch of non FG believers. And the survey does not indicate whether that change to rate expectations has actually increased the household's spending. And also a quarter of those surveyed had no idea whatsoever on rates!

And then of course, forward guidance is not forward guidance if it is data dependant which it is. It is just old fashioned interest rate policy (dependent on economic news) but dressed up in a new way (much like any new fashion). But the biggest problem I have with forward guidance is that it may prove to be the name under which inflation is tolerated and rates not raised quickly enough.

However like all fashions, it does not matter what FG does or does not do, its all about being in on the latest thing. Judging FG on that basis, it is terrifically trendy.

I was having difficulty finding a song or video this week. And so I have chosen a Monty Python sketch – Vocational Guidance Counsellor. Clearly it has a tenuous link to FG but it is very funny.

Monty Python – Vocational Guidance Counsellor:

ForexLive Americas wrap: New home sales plunge

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 12:10 PM PDT

Forex headlines for August 23, 2013:

Surprise 13.4% plunge in July US new home sales
Canada July CPI +1.3% vs 1.4% expected
Fed's Lockhart 'would be supportive' of Sept taper if data strong
Fed's Bullard sees no rush to taper
Fed's Williams expects 'significant' uptick in GDP later this year and in 2014
Bean says QE remains an option for Bank of England
European August consumer confidence -15.6 vs -16.5 expected
‘New Normal’ downgraded
Gold gains $21 to $1397
US 10 year yields down 6 bps to 2.82%
AUD was the top performer while NZD lagged

The US dollar puked up the new home sales headlines. Not only was the July number bad, the three previous months were revised lower. The talk is that rising mortgage rates could snuff out the housing recovery, which is the only real sign of strength in the US economy.

The euro was quick to take advantage, climbing in a straight line to 1.3411 from 1.3340. It’s drifted back but a close above 1.3346 would be the highest since early February.

USD/JPY dropped on the new home sales headline but a strong layer of real money bids down to 98.40 cushioned the blow. Eventually the dollar rebounded to 98.70.

USD/CAD touched a multi-week high at 1.0568 but couldn’t climb higher despite softer-than-expected Canadian CPI numbers. When USD/CAD couldn’t rise on good news, the selling started and it was compounded by the US home sales flub.

CAD or NZD, which commodity currency will bottom first?

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 11:30 AM PDT

There’s a commodity currency race to the bottom underway.

USD/CAD up 6 straight days in 2.66% rise
NZD/USD down 5 straight days in a 4.9% decline

The Canadian dollar decline has been longer but the kiwi decline is a much larger magnitude.

Looking at the charts, both fell from the 100-day moving average and are nearing support/resistance.

USDCAD daily chart. The June high was 1.0610.

NZD/USD daily chart. 0.7692 was the June/July low

If you had to pick one, it’s tough and if you want to trade NZD/CAD, your broker will love you.

A few thoughts.

Both are overdue for a rally but CAD looks a bit better to me.
A good trade may be to wait for a break of 0.7692 in NZD/USD and sell it.
This comes in a period where USD hasn’t been particularly strong so if that side of the equation gets moving, this could be just the tip of the iceberg.

NZD/CHF was the worst performing trade this week

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 11:01 AM PDT

The Swiss franc was the best performer this week while the kiwi lagged. In the past 5 trading days, the pair gained a whopping 4.26% or 306 pips.

I don’t think I’ve ever looked at the NZD/CHF chart but it’s an interesting one as the kiwi tests the bottom of the recent range.

NZD/CHF weekly chart

What do you think will be the best trade next week?

Bank of Italy sees first signs of a slow economic recovery

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 10:38 AM PDT

Let’s wait until we see what the politicians have in store to scuttle it.

Caption contest: Bernanke after finding out QE has been ineffective

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 09:48 AM PDT

Bernanke is a few months from retirement and academic economists are now dumping all over his signature policy — quantitative easing.

“You mean to tell me I spent $3.65 trillion for nothing?”

Write a funny caption — one that will at least make me exhale forcefully through my nose — and I’ll mail you a ForexLive mug.

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-24T17:05:00.001+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

USD/JPY climbs higher as dollar finds a footing
Bean says QE reamins an option for Bank of England
Hint from the Fed’s Williams on where tapering will be focused
This is the headline the Bernanke didn`t want to see
Talk that rising rates are undercutting housing recovery
Fed’s Williams expects ‘significant’ uptick in GDP later this year and in 2014
Nearby orders as the US dollar rout continues
US dollar slumps and gold breaks out after new home sales crumble
European August consumer confidence -15.6 vs -16.5 expected
US July new home sales 394K vs 487K expected
S&P 500 treading water, technical analysis
Windows 8 is terrible, Steve Balmer finally falls on his sword
Normal is getting worse and worse
BNP still forecasting big GBP/USD decline, says Carney will be dovish
Canada July CPI +1.3% vs 1.4% expected
Fed’s Bullard sees no rush to taper
Fed’s Lockhart ‘would be supportive’ of Sept taper if data strong
Cable still clinging to support around 1.5550
UK’s Hague says chemical weapons attack in Syria perpetrated by supporters of Assad
US Fed’s Lockhart sees GDP growth of 2-2.5% for remainder of 2013

USD/JPY climbs higher as dollar finds a footing

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 09:27 AM PDT

USD/JPY was able to slide one pip below a thick set of bids at 98.40 but no lower. The pair has turned around to 98.73 as we see some back-and-fill heading into the weekend.

For ‘dead’ Summer week there were some pretty good moves over the past 5 days. It will get even better from here and the fireworks will next week. No one will want to show bond on month-end books and understaffed desks will begin to wake up to the stress in emerging markets.

Bean says QE reamins an option for Bank of England

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 08:54 AM PDT

Forward guidance is an evolution at BOE
Clear guidance is a useful policy tool
Not surprised by long Gilt response to Fed
UK recovery to continues in the second half

He spoke with CNBC.

Hint from the Fed’s Williams on where tapering will be focused

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 08:50 AM PDT

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, the Fed’ Williams says the MBS part of QE is ‘obviously’ helping.

Look for a disproportionate taper in Treasuries.

This is the headline the Bernanke didn`t want to see

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 08:38 AM PDT

‘Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes’ – Bloomberg

This is some great Monday morning quarterbacking from the economists in academia. The wonks have now decided, with the Fed balance sheet at $3.65 trillion and nearly at its peak that maybe this wasn’t such a great idea.

"The portfolio balance channel of QE works largely through narrow channels that affect the prices of purchased assets, with spillovers depending on particulars of the assets and economic conditions," Northwestern University finance professor Arvind Krishnamurthy and University of California-Berkeley professor Annette Vissing-Jorgensen wrote in the paper. "It does not, as the Fed proposes, work through broad channels such as affecting the term premium on all long-term bonds."

Here is the full story.

Talk that rising rates are undercutting housing recovery

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 08:00 AM PDT

There is some chatter that the drop in new home sales is a reflection of higher US mortgage rates. This week the 30-year fixed rate rose to 4.58% from 4.40%.

Relief may be coming quickly as the bond market starts to have a re-think on tapering. Yields are dropping fast with 10-year yields down to 2.84% from 2.92% before the data.

US 10-year yields intraday

The downdraft in yields is pulling down USDJPY.

Fed’s Williams expects ‘significant’ uptick in GDP later this year and in 2014

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 07:52 AM PDT

San Fran Fed President Williams appeared on CNBC:

Market expectations are largely in line with the Fed
Low level of inflation a concern but progress encouraging
Current level of bond purchases by Fed doesn’t create any dysfunction in financial markets

CNBC will also interview Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean at about 11:25 ET (1525 GMT).

Nearby orders as the US dollar rout continues

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 07:38 AM PDT

The dollar is under assault as a slump in new home sales point to a muddling economy. The first taper might not be pushed back beyond September but it may be a token move and the horizon for QE could be extended.

USD/JPY low of 98.47 was bid up by strong real money demand that extends to 98.40. It suggests buying the dip here with a tight stop. More demand at 0.98.10/00
EUR/USD the 20-week MA at 1.3386 broke. Offers at 1.3400 with stops above. Strong offers from 1.3410-20.
AUD/USD medium sized offers at 0.9045/50 more at 0.9075/80
Gold is through the mid-June highs with resistance at $1400 and the June high of $1425

US dollar slumps and gold breaks out after new home sales crumble

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 07:09 AM PDT

EUR/USD rose to a session high of 1.3374 after the 13.4% drop in new home sales. Gold catapulted above resistance at $1384 to $1389 which is the highest since mid-June.

This pretty much sums up the market’s reaction.

European August consumer confidence -15.6 vs -16.5 expected

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 07:02 AM PDT

Data from the European Commission:

Prior reading was -17.4
Best reading in two years

US July new home sales 394K vs 487K expected

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 07:00 AM PDT

Prior revised to 455K from 497K
Prior three months were all revised lower
Month’s supply rose to 5.2 from 4.3

Huge miss in home sales, falling 13.4% compared to a 2% decline expected.

New home sales rolling over

S&P 500 treading water, technical analysis

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 06:43 AM PDT

The S&P 500 climbed back above the 55-day moving average with a 4 point gain shortly after the open.

I expect resistance in the 1676 zone to cap any rebound as tapering and 10-year yields near 3% continue to add uncertainty. I look for an eventual test of the zone of support between 1617-1635.

SP 500 daily chart with 55-day and 100-day moving avgs

Windows 8 is terrible, Steve Balmer finally falls on his sword

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 06:07 AM PDT

Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer announced he will step down within 12 months after repeated failures in just about everything the company has tried in the past two years.

You know you’re a bad CEO when Microsoft shares rise as much as 8.2% on your retirement announcement.

Normal is getting worse and worse

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 06:02 AM PDT

The new normal of 2% US growth has just been downgraded by economists at JPMorgan. They say the new, new normal is long-run US growth of 1.75%.

The "U.S. future isn't what it used to be," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan in New York. Declining productivity gains and a slower expansion of the labor force "should limit the U.S. average growth pace" in the long run.

Feroli cites an aging workforce and lower productivity.

The current consensus for 2013 is 1.60% and 2.70% for 2014. With the Fed basically out of bullets and Congress utterly dysfunctional it’s growing difficult to see how 2014 will be much better than this year.

BNP still forecasting big GBP/USD decline, says Carney will be dovish

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 05:48 AM PDT

FX analysts at BNP re-iterated their expectations for a big drop in cable this year, targeting 1.43 at year end (spot at 1.57). They say Carney will push back against rising UK yields with dovish rhetoric and the focus on upbeat UK data will fade. Rather than cable shorts, they prefer to take advatage of pound weakness with EUR/GBP longs.

Canada July CPI +1.3% vs 1.4% expected

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 05:30 AM PDT

Prior was 1.2% exp
Overall CPI at 123.1 vs 123.2 exp
Core CPI 1.4% vs 1.5% y/y exp
Core CPI 0.0% vs 0.1% m/m exp

Nothing is working for the Canadian dollar these days as USD/CAD rises for the sixth consecutive day, touching 1.0569 but it has quickly come off, down to 1.0546.

relentless USDCAD as shown on the hourly chart

Fed’s Bullard sees no rush to taper

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 05:18 AM PDT

St. Louis Fed President Bullard says the FOMC need not be ‘in any hurry’ to taper QE and that the Fed should take its time when assessing QE taper.

Bullard dissented at the June FOMC because of disinflation concerns.

Update: Bullard adds that QE3 has been very successful in easing market conditions but the effect on the economy has been less clear.

That comment speaks to the academic debate on the effectiveness of QE that’s the underlying focus at Jackson Hole. I wouldn’t say conditions were tight at the start of QE3.

Fed’s Lockhart ‘would be supportive’ of Sept taper if data strong

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 05:17 AM PDT

Lockhart doesn’t have a vote this year
‘Confident’ in moderate growth path for US
I can’t anticipate what Fed will do in Sept
First step to taper is not pledge to final end

The usual wait-and-see rhetoric.

Cable still clinging to support around 1.5550

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 05:10 AM PDT

Buy orders at 1.5550 now soaked up

Low traded so far 1.5547 but the under-pressure pound is hanging on for dear life still at 1.5550

General USD demand still adding to the pair’s woes as is EURGBP which is still trying to chew through the raft of offers through to 0.8630

USDJPY having another look upstairs at 99.10 ahead of the strong sell interest between 99.20-50 that I’ve been highlighting

UK’s Hague says chemical weapons attack in Syria perpetrated by supporters of Assad

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 05:01 AM PDT

will seek stronger mandate from UN if inspectors not allowed to investigate attack site in coming days
says the attack is not something the civilized world can ignore

You can follow the ongoing Syria thread here

US Fed’s Lockhart sees GDP growth of 2-2.5% for remainder of 2013

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 04:52 AM PDT

Being interviewed on CNBC

needs to see data showing ” sustainable”economic growth in order to reduce QE3 in september
too early to tell whether recent private-market rate rises will create economic contraction
pending leadership change at Fed is not a factor in policy-setting

More of the same from the dovish Lockhart

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-23T17:04:00.000+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Pound pops up after Q2 GDP revision
UK BBA mortgage approvals july: 37.2k vs 37.3 prev
UK Q2 GDP 2nd reading: +0.7 % vs +0.6% exp
EURJPY orders 23 August
AUDUSD orders 23 August
EURGBP orders 23 August
GBPUSD orders 23 August
ECB’s Nowotny sees no immediate reason for a rate cut
UK Q2 GDP second-reading view
European equity markets open mixed
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.47% at 2057.46
AUDUSD finds support at 0.8985
EURUSD orders 23 August
USDJPY finds fresh legs
Eurostoxx 50 futures +0.3% in early trading
German final Q2 GDP: q/q +0.7% vs +0.7% prev reading
Nikkei closes up 2.21% at 13,660.55
German fin min Schaeuble says its good that ECB will raise interest rates when economy improves
Nikkei turns lower again
USDJPY orders 23 August

Pound pops up after Q2 GDP revision

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:55 AM PDT

We’ve seen traders clamour for the pound on the release of the confirmation of Q2 GDP second reading to +0.7% vs +0.6% prev

Cable jumped from 1.5601 and took out the sell interest around 1.5625 but has found plenty of initial supply to 1.5638 with traders positioned long into the release.

EURGBP is back to 0.8552 after dipping to 0.8541

Other GBP pairs little changed

I think the jury’s still out on a further rally, with both bulls and bears happy with the outcome so far.

UK BBA mortgage approvals july: 37.2k vs 37.3 prev

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:37 AM PDT

gross mortgage borrowing GBP 9.1 bln

Not a game changer

Cable chewing through the offers

Now 1.5634

UK Q2 GDP 2nd reading: +0.7 % vs +0.6% exp

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

+0.6% prev
y/y +1.5 % vs +1.4% exp/prev

In line with some of the forecasts that I highlighted earlier

GBPUSD up to test sell interest around 1.5625

High post 1.5630

Currently 1.5620

EURGBP down to 0.8540

EURJPY orders 23 August

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:25 AM PDT

Currently 132.04

Sellers 132.35 132.50 132.75 133.00 133.20 133.50 133.80 134.00

Buyers 131.80 131.50 131.10 131.00 130.80 130.50

AUDUSD orders 23 August

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:22 AM PDT

Currently 0.8993

Sellers 0.9030 0.9040 0.9050 0.9075 0.9090 0.9100 0.9150

Buyers 0.8985 0.8970 ( stop loss selling if breached ) 0.8950 0.8935 0.8920 0.8900 0.8880

EURGBP orders 23 August

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:19 AM PDT

Currently 0.8556

Sellers 0. 8575 0.8585 0.8600 0.8610 0.8620 0.86230 0.8640 0.8650

Buyers 0.8540 0.8520 0.8510 0.8500 0.8485 0.8475

GBPUSD orders 23 August

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 01:15 AM PDT

Currently 1.5588

Sellers 1.5610 1.5620 1.5625 1.5640 1.5650 1.5685 1.5700 1.5720 1.5750

Buyers 1.5575 1.5565 1.5550 ( stop loss selling if breached ) 1.5525 1.5510 1.5500 1.5490 1.5475 1.5450

GBPUSD orders 23 August

ECB’s Nowotny sees no immediate reason for a rate cut

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 12:37 AM PDT

Quoted on Bloomberg

Says the recent good news from Eurozone has removed any need for a interest rate cut
says he also rules out ECB tightening

Nothing new in his position

EURUSD 1.3335

UK Q2 GDP second-reading view

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 12:29 AM PDT

There’s been a lot of talk over the past few days that we will see an upward revision to the preliminary reading from +0.6% to +0.7% due to better than expected data in the interim.

My view is that this level of revision has been factored in and we could yet again see a buy rumour/sell fact scenario today with the release at 08.30 GMT

There’s no doubting that an upward revision is a GBP- positive and of course if it’s better than +0.7% we’ll all applaud loudly and the pound will soar in the short term at least. If it comes in at 0.6% as previously then we’ll see a dip on the immediate disappointment even though it’s a decent number. Any downward revision will definitely cause a big slap lower.

There’s strong resistance at 1.5700-20 still despite popping the barrier earlier this week. Good buy interest still at 1.5550 but with stop loss selling below if breached with more demand seen at 1.5500. Currently 1.5596 with immediate offers reported at 1.5625

Strong sell interest at 0.8585-0.8610 on EURGBP may well come into play if the pound does get sold off, putting a brake on immediate further cable decline.

Of course, it may all just turn out to be an end of week anti-climax.

Let’s hope not.

European equity markets open mixed

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 12:11 AM PDT

FTSE -0.1%
DAX +0.02%
CAC40 -0.1%
IBEX +0.2%
FTMIB +0.1%

Shanghai comp index closes down 0.47% at 2057.46

Posted: 23 Aug 2013 12:07 AM PDT

AUDUSD finds support at 0.8985

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:51 PM PDT

Early Europe selling on this pair has run into support at 0.8985

More buy orders reported at 0.8970 with stop loss selling if breached into more bids at 0.8950

Sellers noted at 0.9040-50

Currently back to 0.9004

EURUSD orders 23 August

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:38 PM PDT

Currently 1.3340

Sellers 1.3350 1.3365 1.3380 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 ( stop loss buying if 1.3425 breached ) 1.3450

Buyers 1.3325 1.3310 1.3300 1.3285 ( stop loss selling if 1.3280 breached) 1.3265 1.3250 1.3210 1.3200

EURUSD orders 23 August

USDJPY finds fresh legs

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:24 PM PDT

Early Europe picking up a few on this pair

Bouncing from the 98.85 level I reported earlier where some buy orders were lurking

Now posting new session highs at 99.14 ahead of good sell interest at 99.20 and 99.50

Currently 99.09

Eurostoxx 50 futures +0.3% in early trading

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:20 PM PDT

FTSE futures +0.3%
DAX futures +0.4%
CAC 40 futures +0.2%

Bund futures up 4 at 139.77

German final Q2 GDP: q/q +0.7% vs +0.7% prev reading

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:06 PM PDT

y/y +0.9% vs +0.9% prev
Q2 q/q exports + 2.2% imports +2.0%

Nothing of note in the headline but EURUSD a little lower again at 1.3336

Nikkei closes up 2.21% at 13,660.55

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:05 PM PDT

+295.38
high 13,774.66
low 13,575.40
USDJPY 98.96

German fin min Schaeuble says its good that ECB will raise interest rates when economy improves

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 11:01 PM PDT

Quote comes from a newspaper interview cited by Reuters

No great surprises here

EURUSD taking a little comfort though and up slightly to 1.3343

Nikkei turns lower again

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 10:52 PM PDT

Dragging USDJPY with it down to 98.85

I noted strong offers at 99.20 and Guitar 7 in the comments refers to a Kumo cloud- linked sell signal with a bit of % retracement thrown in for good measure between 99.06/15 for those of you who follow the analysis

Nikkei currently down to 13,619.57 as we approach the final bell

USDJPY orders 23 August

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 10:32 PM PDT

Currently 99.00 off session highs of 99.11

Sellers 99.20 99.30 99.40 99.50 99.70 99.90 100.00

Buyers 98.85 98.65 98.40 98.30 98.10 98.00 97.85 97.50

USDJPY orders 23 August

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2013-08-22T17:02:00.001+08:00

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Why devaluing the pound hasn’t been such an easy fix for the UK trade balance
Yen pairs at key levels
EURJPY orders 22 August
Pound lagging behind again
Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI august: 51.3 vs 50.8 exp
EURGBP orders 22 August
USDJPY orders 22 August
AUDUSD climbs back above 0.9000
German Markit flash manufacturing PMI august: 52.0 vs 51.2 exp
Euro knocked back by weaker French PMI data
European equity markets open firmer
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.28% at 2067.12
French Markit flash manufacturing PMI august: 49.7 vs 50.3 exp
GBPUSD orders 22 August
Swiss trade balance july: CHF +2.38 bln vs 2.82 bln prev
Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.2% in early trading
Nikkei closes lower at 13,365.17
AUDUSD orders 22 August
EURUSD orders 22 August
Nikkei quiet moving into the final hour

Why devaluing the pound hasn’t been such an easy fix for the UK trade balance

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 01:53 AM PDT

I’ve long argued, here and elsewhere, that devaluation of the pound was never going to be the sole answer to increasing our trade balance, especially when we’re net importers.

The FT has similar thoughts today

Exports should be booming but it takes more than a currency depreciation to reshape an economy

Article may be gated but available on basic free subscription, or search “UK Trade: One way traffic”

Yen pairs at key levels

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 01:45 AM PDT

USDJPY challenging strong barrier related sell interest at 98.50. More behind that

EURJPY trying to chew through sell orders from 131.50 but plenty more all the way up to 132.50

If the intitial levels break we can expect some knee-jerk follow through

It could still be a big “if” but neither of them are exactly retreating in a rush at the moment

EURJPY orders 22 August

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 01:38 AM PDT

Currently 131.47 banging against strong sell interest around 131.50. more offers behind that

Sellers 131.50 131.70 131.80 131.90 132.00 132.20 132.50

Buyers 131.10 131.00 130.80 130.60 130.20 130.00 129.85

Pound lagging behind again

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 01:23 AM PDT

Ok, this is the sort of headline I really prefer writing !

Euro demand is driving EURGBP higher to 0.8570 forcing GBPUSD to stay below 1.5600 after the earlier rally to 1.5615 ran into good sell interest

I’m hearing Asian demand down here at 1.5580-85, probably taking profit from that rally.

More bids down to strong interest at 1.5550

EURGBP has good sell interest from 0.8585 which might cap this current rally so be aware

GBPAUD lower at 1.7275 from o/n highs of 1.7487

GBPCHF on session lows at 1.4395 from 1.4457

Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI august: 51.3 vs 50.8 exp

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:59 AM PDT

50.3 prev
services flash PMI 51 vs 50.2 exp 49.8 prev
comp flash PMI 51.7 vs 50.9 exp 50.5 prev

Euro higher again on better data

EURUSD 1.3364 EURGBP 0.8563 EURJPY 131.28

EURGBP orders 22 August

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:58 AM PDT

Currently 0.8557

Sellers 0.8565 0.8575 0.8585 0.8600 0.8610 0.8620 0.8630

Buyers 0.8535 0.8525 0.8510 0.8500 0.8485 0.8475 ( stops below 0.8470 if breached ) 0.8450

USDJPY orders 22 August

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:54 AM PDT

Currently 98.20

Sellers 98.35 98.45 98.50 98.65 98.75 98.90 99.00 99.20

Buyers 98.00 97.85 97.65 97.50 97.00 96.90

AUDUSD climbs back above 0.9000

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:41 AM PDT

Reports of its death are greatly exaggerated, for the moment at least

A decent recovery from the post-FOMC lows of 0.8932

Currently 0.9015 heading into offers between 0.9220-50

German Markit flash manufacturing PMI august: 52.0 vs 51.2 exp

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:28 AM PDT

50.7 prev
services flash PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 exp 51.3 prev
comp flash PMI 53.4 vs 52.8 prev

Euro now higher on the better than expected data

Keep up out there !

EURUSD 1.3347 EURGBP 0.8556 EURJPY 131.07

Next up EZ flash PMI at 07.58 GMT

Euro knocked back by weaker French PMI data

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:11 AM PDT

EURUSD has fallen to 1.3322 from 1.3350 on the weaker than expected data

Bids around here but stop loss selling seen below 1.3320 with more buyers lined up at 1.3300 as per my earlier orderboard

EURGBP finding a few buyers in the dip to 0.8535 and EURJPY holding at 130.80 for the moment having dropped back through 131.00

Next up is the German flash mgtg PMI at 07.28 GMT

European equity markets open firmer

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:06 AM PDT

FTSE +0.1%
DAX flat
CAC 40 +0.2%
IBEX +0.4%
FTMIB +0.3%

Shanghai comp index closes down 0.28% at 2067.12

Posted: 22 Aug 2013 12:03 AM PDT

French Markit flash manufacturing PMI august: 49.7 vs 50.3 exp

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 11:58 PM PDT

49.7 prev
services flash PMI 47.7 vs 49.2 exp 48.6 prev
comp PMI 47.9 VS 49.1

Euro lower on the weaker than expected data

EURUSD 1.3332 EURGBP 0.8538 EURJPY 130.87

GBPUSD orders 22 August

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 11:41 PM PDT

Currently 1.5606

Sellers 1.5625 1.5650 1.5665 1.5675 1.5685 1.5700 1.5725 1.5750

Buyers 1.5580 1.5570 1.5560 1.5550 1.5525 1.5500

GBPUSD orders 22 August

Swiss trade balance july: CHF +2.38 bln vs 2.82 bln prev

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 11:11 PM PDT

prev figure revised up from CHF 2.73 bln
USDCHF steady at 0.9241 after the weaker than previous data

Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.2% in early trading

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 11:09 PM PDT

DAX futures -0.3%
CAC 40 futures -0.2%

Bund futures down 34 at 139.80

Nikkei closes lower at 13,365.17

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 11:06 PM PDT

-0.44%
-59.16
high 13,447.38
low 13,238.73
USDJPY 98.24

AUDUSD orders 22 August

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 10:58 PM PDT

Currently 0.8987

Sellers 0.9005 0.9020 0.9040 0.9050 0.9070 0.9090 0.9100 0.9150

Buyers 0. 8975 0.8965 0.8950 0. 8930 0.8920 0.8900 0.8880

AUDUSD orders 22 August 2013

EURUSD orders 22 August

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 10:49 PM PDT

Currently 1.3341

Sellers 1.3375 1.3385 1.3400 1.3420 1.3450 1.3475 1.3485 1.3500

Buyers 1.3330 1.3325 ( stop loss selling below 1.3320) 1.3300 1.3285 1.3250

EURUSD orders 22 August

Nikkei quiet moving into the final hour

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 10:05 PM PDT

Hopefully that headline should get it moving now at least!

13,410.13
-0.11
USDJPY off its highs at 98.27

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-21T17:04:00.001+08:00

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July UK PSNB -£1.635bn vs -£4.65bn exp m/m
NZDJPY stop loss orders trigger further falls
Bundesbank’s Weidmann: Exit of Euro countries would have serious effects
Technical levels 21 August
EURJPY orders 21 August
AUDUSD orders 21 August 2013
EURUSD breaks back below 1.3400
European equity markets open mixed
Shanghai comp index closes up 0.02% at 2072.96
EURGBP orders 21 August
GBPUSD orders 21 August
Japan’s Aso says sales tax hike should go ahead as planned next year
Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.1%
Nikkei closes up 0.21% at 13,424.33
USDJPY orders 21 August
EURUSD orders 21 August
EU’s Rehn does not rule out a third bailout package for Greece
Nikkei turning positive into the final hour
Data coming up in this session
Option expiries 10am NY cut 21 August

July UK PSNB -£1.635bn vs -£4.65bn exp m/m

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Prior +£10.23bn. Revised to +£10.483bn
PSNB ex finance £0.062bn vs -£2.450bn exp. Prior +£8.47bn revised to +£8.722bn
PSNCR -£19.640bn vs +£3.10bn prior revised to -£0.98bn

ONS say the public deficit is being driven by increased central government spending.

An interesting titbit from the ONS release is that the UK has coined in £600m of taxes from Swiss bank accounts under a tax agreement agreed in Jan.

NZDJPY stop loss orders trigger further falls

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 01:27 AM PDT

I’m hearing that the move down on this and associated pairs just now was triggered by a large stop-loss sell order

NZDUSD has posted lows of 0.7891.USDJPY hit 97.28 before bouncing. NZDJPY down to 0.7686 . now 0.7701

Sources also citing good size Japanese supply on USDJPY forcing EURJPY lower to take out buying interest at 130.50. Low post 130.33

Bundesbank’s Weidmann: Exit of Euro countries would have serious effects

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 01:25 AM PDT

Monetary union is not a club one could join or leave without any problems
An exit would have grave consequences
ECB bond buying endangers ECB independence, blurs the line between monetary and fiscal policy
Forward guidance won’t change ECB course of action
Publication of minutes bears risks but would welcome timely release of minutes
Minutes would convey main lines of arguments, may hinder free discussion

The comments come in an interview with German Capital magazine

Technical levels 21 August

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 01:17 AM PDT

Hi folks

Here are Wednesdays levels.

Technical levels 21 August 2013

EURJPY orders 21 August

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 01:16 AM PDT

Currently 130.70

Sellers 131.00 0 131.10 131.20 131.50 131.75 131.80 131.90 132.00

Buyers 130.50 130.30 130.00 129.80 129.60 129.50 129.20 129.00

AUDUSD orders 21 August 2013

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 01:12 AM PDT

Currently 0.9009 having just tried 0.9000

Sellers 0.9020 0.9030 0.9040 0.9070 0.9090 0.9100 0.9120 0.9150

Buyers 0.9000 ( stop loss selling if breached ) 0.8980 0.8970 0.8950 ( stop loss selling if breached) 0.8920 0.8900 0.8880

EURUSD breaks back below 1.3400

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 12:22 AM PDT

And now threatening to trigger the stops below 1.3390

Offers now building up at 1.3420 in addtion to the other levels posted earlier

Currently 1.3393

European equity markets open mixed

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 12:16 AM PDT

FTSE -0.3%
DAX -0.1%
CAC 40 +0.4%
IBEX +0.4%
FTMIB +0.4%

Shanghai comp index closes up 0.02% at 2072.96

Posted: 21 Aug 2013 12:04 AM PDT

EURGBP orders 21 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 11:50 PM PDT

Currently 0.8561

Sellers 0.8580-85 0.8600 0.8610 0.8620 0.8630 0.8640 0.8650

Buyers 0.8545 0.8525 0.8510 0.8500 0.8485-80 0.8465

EURGBP orders 21 August

GBPUSD orders 21 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 11:46 PM PDT

Currently 1.5668

Sellers 1.5680 1.5695 1.5700 1.5710 ( stop loss buying if breached) 1.5720-25 1.5750-55

Buyers 1.5650 1.5640 1.5630 1.5620 1.5600 1.5580 1.5555 1.5525

GBPUSD orders 21 August

Japan’s Aso says sales tax hike should go ahead as planned next year

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 11:32 PM PDT

Japan’s fin min out on Reuters

says he has not heard any convincing reasons why govt should not proceed as planned

Repeating his previous position amidst talk that the hike may come in increments

Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.1%

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 11:07 PM PDT

DAX futures flat
Cac 40 futures +0.2%

Bund futures down 9 at 140.52

Nikkei closes up 0.21% at 13,424.33

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 11:04 PM PDT

+ 27.95
high 13,499.99
low 13,250.36
USDJPY 97.51

USDJPY orders 21 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 11:01 PM PDT

Currently 97.52

Sellers 97.80 97.90 98.00 98.10 98.20 98.30 98.50

Buyers 97.10 97.00 96.80 ( stop loss selling if breached ) 96.60 96.50 96.20 96.00

USDJPY orders 21 August

EURUSD orders 21 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 10:57 PM PDT

Currently 1.3412

Sellers 1.3430 1.3450 1.3475 1.3485 1.3500 1.3520

Buyers 1.3400 1.3390 ( stop loss selling if breached ) 1.3375-70 1.3365 ( stop loss selling if breached) 1.3350 1.3330 1.3310 1.3300

EURUSD orders 21 August

EU’s Rehn does not rule out a third bailout package for Greece

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 10:53 PM PDT

But says that the country’s lenders have other options to keep the aid programme going

EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner quoted in Finnish newspaper today

Yesterday German fin min Wolfgang Shaeuble said that Greece will need another bailout triggering storms of protest from German opposition parties.

Nikkei turning positive into the final hour

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 10:03 PM PDT

+0.15% at 13,416.73

From Fukushima-led lows of 13,250.36

USDJPY firmer at 97.47

Data coming up in this session

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 09:50 PM PDT

Good day one and all

So EURUSD finally breaks 1.3400, Japan admits it’s got serious issues at Fukushima and the aussie and new zealand dollars continue to look under threat

But there’s no prizes for guessing today’s main event at 18.00 GMT

Firework or dud ? No point in pondering too much until we get the facts

In the meantime we’ll continue to get the pushes and pulls, and there’s been plenty of opportunity from which to carve a few pips whatever side of the tracks you sit

Oh, and England/Australia start the 5th and final Ashes Test of this series at The Oval. Doesn’t time fly fast when you’re having fun!

Good luck out there

Times GMT

Economic data 21 August

Option expiries 10am NY cut 21 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 09:31 PM PDT

USDJPY 97.00 97.50 97.60 99.00
EURUSD 1.3325 1.3350 1.3400
GBPUSD 1.5575 1.5650
USDCHF 0.9200 0.9300
AUDUSD 0.9050 0.9100 0.9200
USDCAD 1.0315 1.0370 1.0380 1.0400
EURJPY 131.00

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2013-08-20T17:02:00.001+08:00

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June EZ construction output +0.7% vs -0.3% prior m/m
USD/CHF bounces from 0.9200 Jan support line in sight
EURJPY orders 20 August
Stop loss orders triggered on USDCHF
USD/JPY takes a dip below 97.00
AUDUSD orders 20 August
USDJPY orders 20 August
Technical levels 20 August
EURJPY selling drives pairs lower
EURGBP orders 20 August
GBPUSD orders 20 August
EURUSD orders 20 August
European equity markets open lower
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.62% at 2072.59
BHP Billiton gets battered
Rupee under pressure again
Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.5% in early trading
Nikkei closes down 2.63% at 13,396.38
German producer prices july: m/m -0.1% vs +0.2% exp
USDCHF stop loss sellers reported close by

June EZ construction output +0.7% vs -0.3% prior m/m

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior revised to +0.5%
-3.0% vs -5.1% prior y/y

USD/CHF bounces from 0.9200 Jan support line in sight

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 01:44 AM PDT

The low is ~~0.9200 exactly~~ 0.9180 as the dollar comes under pressure.

Just below 0.9200 we have the Jan 2013 support line at 0.9183 which has held on the last 2 occasions in June and August.

USD/CHF daily chart 20 August 2013

Last Friday I noted that there was potential for a further dip. USD/CHF bulls beware We had the Morgan call for longs and they’ve just been stopped out as it trades 0.9180. The reason I called out the MS shout was not because I didn’t believe in their strategy but because I couldn’t understand their entry level. For me it’s not about trying to be better than the banks or to shout it from the roof tops that they got it wrong or whatever, it’s about looking at the trade and seeing the risks. There are plenty of people who follow bank recs like sheep because they don’t have the ability or experience to see the trade themselves. That inexperience has now seen them out of pocket.

Even now as I write we’ve bounced from the support line back above 0.9200. I’ve taken a small long at 0.9185 and, unsurprisingly, hoovered up some EUR/CHF at 1.2305.

EURJPY orders 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 01:23 AM PDT

Currently 129.68 having triggered stops at 129.50 earlier and traded down to 129.29

Sellers 129.90 130.00 130.25 130.40 130.50 130.70 131.00 131.10 131.20

Buyers 129.20 129.00 128.80 128.50 128.40 128.20 128.00

Stop loss orders triggered on USDCHF

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 01:16 AM PDT

On the break of 0.9220

As per my previous post

Low 0.9204

Currently 0.9207

USD/JPY takes a dip below 97.00

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 01:11 AM PDT

96.98 the low and we’re back above to 97.10.

Swiss pair getting hosed early doors.

EUR/CHF runs stops through 1.2300 to 1.2286

USD/CHF holding just above 0.9200 at 0.9205 from 0.9236

GBP/CHF down to 1.4411 from 1.4450

AUDUSD orders 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 01:10 AM PDT

Currently 0.9046 having held above the 0.9020 support I highlighted earlier

Sellers 0.9070 0.9090 0.9100 0.9120 0.9150 0.9180

Buyers 0.9020 0.9000 0.8975 0.8950 0.8920 0.8900

USDJPY orders 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 01:03 AM PDT

Currently 97.04 having just posted o/n lows of 96.98

Sellers 97.35 97.50 97.85 98.00 98.30 98.50

Buyers 96.90 96.80 96.75 96.60 96.50 96.30 96.20 96.00

Technical levels 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:57 AM PDT

Morning all

Here are the levels for Tuesday.

Technical levels 20 August 2013

EURJPY selling drives pairs lower

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:40 AM PDT

Stop loss selling on the break of 129.50 has triggered further sales in USDJPY down to 97.06 and EURUSD down to 1.3324

Good buying interest seen at 129.20

Currently 129.32.

EURGBP orders 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:24 AM PDT

Currently 0.8528

Sellers 0.8535 0.8555 0.8570 0.8585 0.8600 0.8610 0.8620 0.8630

Buyers 0.8510 0.8500 0.8485-80 0.8465 0.8450 0.8420

GBPUSD orders 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:20 AM PDT

Currently near session lows at 1.5636

Sellers 1.5655 1.5670 1.5680 1.5700 1.5710 1.5720 1.5750

Buyers 1.5625 1.5610 1.5600 1.5585 1.5550 1.5520 1.5500

GBPUSD orders 20 August

EURUSD orders 20 August

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:17 AM PDT

Currently 1.3330

Sellers 1.3355 1.3365 1.3380 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3440 1.3450

Buyers 1.3320 1.3310 1.3300 1.3285 1.3275 1.3265 1.3250

EURUSD orders 20 August

European equity markets open lower

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:11 AM PDT

The knock-on effect continues into Europe

FTSE -0.6%
DAX -1.0%
CAC 40 -0.4%
IBEX -0.6%
FTMIB -0.3%

Shanghai comp index closes down 0.62% at 2072.59

Posted: 20 Aug 2013 12:06 AM PDT

BHP Billiton gets battered

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 11:59 PM PDT

H2 results out just now have shown a dramatic fall in profits for the six months to June to USD 6.12 bln vs 7.18 bln y/y

The losses come despite BHP slashing costs and raising output of iron ore, copper and coal in the face of falling commodity prices.

Earlier reports were more upbeat with forecasters expecting profits around USD 7 bln

Not good, and AUDUSD is back down to 0.9038 having tried valiantly to stage a rally through 0.9060 earlier.

Stop loss sell orders reported below 0.9030 before more bids between 0.9000-20

Rupee under pressure again

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 11:47 PM PDT

We’ve posted a few times on the crisis in the rupee and other emerging market currencies, most recently here.

The seemingly unstoppable slide since the Fed announced tapering intentions in May has continued today for the rupee and stock makets in Asia’s third largest economy

India’s inability to protect it’s currency has naturally led to concerns that foreign investors, who hold more than 50 % of freely traded Indian shares, will start to pull out in large numbers thus adding to the problems.

Recent measures to protect the currency, such as restrictive capital controls and increasing the import duty on gold, have had the opposite effect as traders and investors view these as acts of desperation rather than deterrant.

The Reserve Bank of India has a real job on its hands when it next meets in September on interest rates to try and strike a balance between protection of currency and restriction of growth.

Critics, including many of our Indian readers, are lining up to express dissatisfaction with the government and central bank intervention thus far and demanding that new measures are needed if the fall-out isn’t to gather pace even further.

Worrying times for India, emerging markets and the knock-on effect to the global economy.

Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.5% in early trading

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 11:11 PM PDT

DAX futures -0.5%
CAC 40 futures -0.6%

Bund futures up 32 at 140.25

Nikkei closes down 2.63% at 13,396.38

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 11:05 PM PDT

No late rally today

-361.75
high 13,7309.09
low 13,383.18
USDJPY on session lows of 97.20

German producer prices july: m/m -0.1% vs +0.2% exp

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 11:01 PM PDT

0.0% prev
y/y +0.5% vs +0.7% exp +0.6% prev

USDCHF stop loss sellers reported close by

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 10:58 PM PDT

I’m just hearing that stop loss sell orders are building up should 0.9220 break

Currently 0.9230

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2013-08-19T17:04:00.001+08:00

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Spain’s bad loans keep on growing
Greek current account balance june: y/y EUR +0.663 bln vs 0.073 bln prev
Technical levels 19 August
AUDUSD orders 19 August
London crane watch
EURJPY orders 19 August
USDJPY orders 19 August
EURGBP orders 19 August
European equity markets open mostly lower
Shanghai comp index closes up 0.83% at 2085.60
GBPUSD orders 19 August
UK’s CBI sees economy growing by 1.2% in 2013
EURUSD orders 19 August
Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.04% in early trading
Nikkei closes up 0.79% at 13,758.13
Nikkei still in positive territory but off its highs
Everbright Securities says human error caused mistaken bond trade in China morning session
Data coming up in this session
Option expiries 10am NY cut 19 August
PBOC governor says they will continue with prudent monetary policy in H2 2013

Spain’s bad loans keep on growing

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Despite shovelling billions in bad property loans and other assets to the Spanish toxic bank Sareb, Spain’s bad loans rose to 11.6% of all credit in June. This was up from 11.2% in May and it still looks like increasing further.

Spain’s property market is in a real mess. Unlike most normal recovering housing markets there was a lot going on behind the scenes with corruption, plenty of less than legit building firms and flouting of regulations. This was rife in the tourist areas. There were plenty of legitimate firms and businesses that suffered as well, but there is a lot still to unravel before a normalised recovery can take place. Prices are still very depressed and many Spanish and tourist home owners are underwater.

Greek current account balance june: y/y EUR +0.663 bln vs 0.073 bln prev

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:37 AM PDT

y/y June tourism receipts rise to EUR 1.591 bln vs 1.391 bln prev

Encouraging data from the struggling economy and with the rest of summer figures still to come in

Technical levels 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Hi all.

Hope you had a good weekend.

Here are the levels for a bright and breezy Monday.

Technical levels 19 August 2013

AUDUSD orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:28 AM PDT

Currently 0.9204

Sellers 0.9220 0.9230 0.9240 0.9250 0.9270 0.9300 0.9230 0.9240

Buyers 0.9175 0.9150 0.9140 0.9130 0.9110 0.9100 0.9090 0.9080

AUDUSD oders 19 August

London crane watch

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:26 AM PDT

Whilst in and around the City on Sunday – at a function, 15 floors up – I happened to notice the huge number of cranes dotted about the London skyline. Now like most people who live in a city, you tend to only see those things which are most familiar to you, until something catches your eye, and spurs you on to look again, but with a different focus. So I decided to try and get some perspective on this – after all, just because I noticed a large number of cranes, it didn`t necessarilly mean that they had magically appeared overnight.

So I did a little bit of research. As of mid May this year, building activity in London had trebled from its low in 2010, to reach a four year high – and by the look of things on Sunday, that activity had further gathered momentum. AND, of the building under construction, 33% of it is pre let, compared to only 1% back in 2011., so potential tenants are going ahead with plans now, rather than sitting back and waiting for things to improve/get cheaper.

I also managed to talk to a few friends who run businesses parallel to the building industry ie. making windows/doors/plastics etc. and all reported a surge in demand over, specifically, the last 6 months, with business levels now at or above pre recessionary levels.

I would sum this up by saying that economic activity in this part of the world, and in this particular sector, is booming. Not a true reflection on the UK as a whole, but cause for optimism that GDP may normalise perhaps a little faster than is currently envisaged.

Also, Carney……Crane……….make up your own mind, too similar for my liking AND, you never see them out together.

EURJPY orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 01:20 AM PDT

Currently 130.03

Sellers 130.30 130.40 130.50 130.75 131.00 131.20

Buyers 129.85 129.65 129.50 129.25 129.00 128.80

EURJPY orders for 19 August

USDJPY orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:36 AM PDT

Currently 97.60

Sellers 97.90 98.00 98.10 98.30 98.50 98.65 98.85 99.00

Buyers 97.35 97.20 97.10 97.00 96.80 96.60 96.50 96.40 96.20 96.00

USDJPY orders for 19 August

EURGBP orders 19 August

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:22 AM PDT

Currently 0.8525

Sellers 0.8535 0.8555 0.8570 0.8585 0.8600 0.8610 0.8620 0.8630

Buyers 0.8515 0.8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450

EURGBP orders for 19 August

European equity markets open mostly lower

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:07 AM PDT

FTSE +0.1%
DAX -0.1%
CAC 40 -0.1%
IBEX -0.1%
FTMIB -0.1%

Shanghai comp index closes up 0.83% at 2085.60

Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:04 AM PDT

GBPUSD orders 19 August

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:57 PM PDT

Currently 1.5617

Sellers 1.5640 1.5655 1.5680 1.5700 1.5720 1.5750

Buyers 1.5610 1.5600 1.5585 1.5550 1.5525 1.5500

GBPUSD orders for 19 August

UK’s CBI sees economy growing by 1.2% in 2013

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:43 PM PDT

The Confederation of British Industry, representing 240,000 businesses, has raised its forecast from 1.00%

It has also raised its forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 2%

Director General Sir John Cridland says

The economy has started to gain momentum and confidence is picking up, but it’s still early days

The CBI also sees the BOE’s forward guidance as having a positive effect

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2013-08-17T17:07:00.001+08:00

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Pour a vodka: Poland’s ratings affirmed by S&P
USD/CAD technical analysis 16 August
NZD/JPY longs were the best trade this week
It’s not all bad news for growth says BOAML
Euro and sterling falling like a feather
USD/JPY taking a look at the highs of the day
Don`t panic Mr Governor.
Options expiration was a bit of a dud
Merkel rules out cut in debt for Greece
University of Michigan August consumer sentiment 80.0 vs 85.5 expected
Spain-German spread narrows below 250 bps
US stocks open 16 August
The thing about those big reversals is they often continue
Mexican growth is the next one on the chopping block
Follow the flows
Cable breaks 1.5650 as dollar slumps again
Lots of talk about options today but USD/JPY is the only battleground
US Q2 2013 Preliminary productivity 0.9% vs 0.6% exp
July US Housing starts 0.896m vs 0.900m exp
Canadian June manufacturing sales -0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected

Pour a vodka: Poland’s ratings affirmed by S&P

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 09:09 AM PDT

Na zdrowie. Bet you’re glad you’re not in the eurozone.

Rating affirmed with a stable outlook.

USD/CAD technical analysis 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 08:37 AM PDT

The last time I visited the pair in depth was back in May where I was looking to catch a trade around 1.0400/45. My order went unfilled and the pair came off 300 odd pips.

The world and his dog would love another dip down to parity but that boat looks to have sailed for now as the trend is still looking up.

On the daily chart we have a support line coming from April through July which has kept losses caged. The 100 dma has also played a big role.

Much like my view with USD/CHF I can see the pair coming down before September and we have another longer term support line that will be of interest.

Currently at 1.0146 we have a trendline from Sep 2012 through Jan 2013. This also houses the 200 dma. Just underneath that we have a lovely confluence looking to form of the of the 55, 100 & 200 wma’s. At the moment there is only 40 odd pips between them.

USD/CAD when the stars align your profits will shine

This is potentially one of those “perfect moment” times where the tech lines up for a beautiful trade. Whether we get the chance remains to be seen and it’s probably quite a stretch. However, what we should note is that the 55 and 100 wma’s are looking to cross the 200 wma which in itself is a bullish signal.

As with USD/CHF I favour buying down below and down at that August trendline I’d fill my boots. Same warning as before though in that what happens in September could throw everything into disarray. If it does then it could be a case of trading the breaks rather than the bounces.

NZD/JPY longs were the best trade this week

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 08:37 AM PDT

The kiwi was the top performer this week followed by the pound and Aussie. The yen and CAD were laggards.

The RBNZ has adopted a hiking bias in a world where everyone is easing or flat, it’s as simple as that. For the yen, it fell hard this week but it was a retracement from big gains the week before.

Some bullish factors:

Holding the 38.2% retracement is bullish
Double bottom in March and June
Recent low was higher than the June low, suggesting basing underway
A break of 80.48 would be bullish

NZDJPY weekly chart

The main risk is that if the support at that double-bottom breaks, it’s a head-and-shoulders pattern that targets somewhere around 65.00.

It’s not all bad news for growth says BOAML

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 08:19 AM PDT

They’ve gone and raised their forecasts for for the Eurozone and Japan.

Japan is up 0.2% to 2.0% for 2013 and the same margin to 1.9% for 2014
The EZ is now at -0.5% for this year from -0.6%. 2014 is now 0.6% from 0.5%
The EU as a whole is up 0.1% to -0.1% 2013, 1.0% from 0.9% 2014

Italy get’s a good boost +0.3% to -1.7% for 2013.

Inflations forecasts are also marginally up around 0.1% across the EU nations.

Euro and sterling falling like a feather

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 08:00 AM PDT

EUR/USD has knocked off nearly 50 pips in the last hour or so down to 1.3321 from 1.3370.

Her Maj’s pound has peeled off around the same from the highs at 1.5657 down to 1.5608.

EUR/GBP topped out just over the 100 dma but just shy of the resistance and the 55 mma at 0.8565

Already a little bounce is in place and both are over 10 pips above the session lows.

I would suspect this is just profit taking as the European afternoon wears on. European stocks are holding the days highs and bonds are holding steady after drops in yields.

USD/JPY taking a look at the highs of the day

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 07:54 AM PDT

Maybe the option cut wasn’t such a dud after all. USD/JPY (and the dollar in general) has been creeping higher since expiration and is taking a loot at the 97.76 session high.

Offers are protecting the high so it might take a jolt from stocks or the bond market to get things moving.

Don`t panic Mr Governor.

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 07:46 AM PDT

It was only just over a week ago that Mr Governor gave his prognosis and forward guidance; meant to calm us all down, so that we could rest securely in the warm glow of cheap mortgages and low borrowing costs for the next three years.

WHAT HAPPENED ??? We get a couple of bits of good news about the economies both sides of the pond, and wacko, according to the UK press, rates are going up next Monday at the very latest, stock markets are tumbling and life – so good last week – is now futile !!!

So, what has happened to interest rates to spark this - 10 year gilt yields rose a few basis points to about 2.8%, not exactly armageddon is it. A couple of facts here in this silliest of seasons; firstly, we all know that rates are going up at some stage, and that QE will end, it`s just a question of when – but basically, rates are not going up by much and not just yet, thank you. Secondly, there are profits to be taken in equities, and September/October are regular down periods, so to take some profit seems a reasonably smart move (ps. hearing some of that cash going into gold ).

So, lets not get ahead of ourselves here, sure the stock market looks to me as if it can come down by another 5% or so, but that doesn`t mean diddly squit in the larger picture. Things are improving in a lot of the major western economies and perhaps the next three months will show that maybe the pace of that recovery is faster than anticipated. BUT, we need to see that this recovery has some legs before we start to put the brakes on – we`ve got at least until Tuesday…

Options expiration was a bit of a dud

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 07:13 AM PDT

There’s always Monday!

Merkel rules out cut in debt for Greece

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 07:09 AM PDT

Says Frankfuter allgemeine zeitung via BBG

Says a debt cut could bring uncertainty in Europe

Aside from the obvious, anyone would think there is an election around the corner.

University of Michigan August consumer sentiment 80.0 vs 85.5 expected

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 06:55 AM PDT

Prior reading was 85.1
Conditions 91.0 vs 98.0 exp
Expectations 72.9 vs 76.0 exp (lowest since April)
One-year inflation expectations 3.1% vs 3.1% prior
The WSJ had a story about how this indicator is often on the wrong side of the market

U Michigan consumer sentiment

Spain-German spread narrows below 250 bps

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 06:39 AM PDT

The 10-year yield spread between Spanish and German debt narrowed to less than 2.5%. Italian spreads are also at a cycle low at 2.33%.

Those are the kinds of headlines you would expect to read just before EUR/USD rises to a six-month high.

US stocks open 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 06:36 AM PDT

S&P -1.62 pts or -0.1% to 1659.70
Dow -21.35 pts or -0.14% to 15090.84
Nasdaq -2.39 pts or -0.07% to 3603.73

US 10 year yields 2.78% +1bp

The thing about those big reversals is they often continue

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 06:29 AM PDT

The dollar is going limp once again.

EUR/USD edged through minor offers at 1.3370 and is now eying the 200-week moving average at 1.3394. Large offers stretch from there up through the June high at 1.3417.

EUR/USD weekly – nice reversal this week

The Australian dollar also hit some buy stops above 0.9200. The weekly high is at 0.9221.

Mexican growth is the next one on the chopping block

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:58 AM PDT

Santander cuts it’s 2013 growth target to 2.2% from 2.6% citing slow construction and manufacturing spending.

All around they’re coming down.

Update - No sooner do I post that then Citi cut Brazil’s 2013 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.2% and 2014 to 2% from 2.5%

Follow the flows

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:52 AM PDT

Flows can steer you in the wrong direction sometimes because of seasonality but BofA flow data jives with what we’ve seen in the FX market recently:

European stock funds have $2.3B inflow, largest in more than 2 years
US stock funds have $1.9B outflow, first outflow in 7 weeks
The data reflects the week ended Wednesday

A flow of money follows the stream of good European data.

Cable breaks 1.5650 as dollar slumps again

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:47 AM PDT

Up to a high of 1.5657 breaking the resistance held this morning and yesterday.

EUR/USD following and now looking towards August 8 and 9 highs and the 200 wma at 1.3390. Currently at 1.3364.

USD/CHF sees Morgan Stanley further out of the money as it falls to 0.9226 from 0.9265

Lots of talk about options today but USD/JPY is the only battleground

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:45 AM PDT

There is some chatter about big option expirations rolling off at the NY cut (1400 GMT) for EUR/USD and GBP/USD but I’m skeptical.

The USD/JPY expiries, however, are huge and they’re real:

USD/JPY – 97.50 ($1.2B), 97.10 ($2B), 97.00 ($650m), 98.00 ($160m) 98.10 ($3.4B)

The cable option at 1.5650 is around $100m and the 1.5675 is even smaller and that’s just not big enough to have any kind of effect. The only other ones I can dig up that might influence markets are around 1.0400 in USD/CAD but with spot below 1.0330, that’s a stretch. Also keep in mind that U Mich consumer sentiment data will be released at the same time as the options cut so that could add some volatility.

US Q2 2013 Preliminary productivity 0.9% vs 0.6% exp

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:30 AM PDT

Prior 0.5% Q1 final
Q2 Labour costs 1.4% vs 1.2% exp. Prior -4.3%

Labour costs rising and above expectations will add to the inflation equation

In the sectors the biggest increase in labour costs was non durables which rose to 2.8% from -4.8%. In productivity the non-farm sector rose to 0.9% from -1.7% in Q1.

Given the swings from Q1 prelim figures to revisions you could probably drive a bus through the differences when they’re finalised.

US productivity and labour costs 16 08 2013

July US Housing starts 0.896m vs 0.900m exp

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:30 AM PDT

Prior 0.836m. Revised to 0.846m
Building permits 0.943 vs 0.945m exp. Prior 0.911m. Revised to 0.918m
Update: WSJ noting that all the gain was in multi-family starts with single family declining

Housing starts have been on a slide for the last couple of months. It’s nothing alarming after the robust gains but it is showing signs of flattening out

July 2013 housing starts

Canadian June manufacturing sales -0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 05:30 AM PDT

Prior reading was +0.7% (revised to +0.6%)

It’s a weak number and USD/CAD touched a session high after the data. It’s a volatile series so it’s not something to freak out about but it’s something to monitor.

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2013-08-16T17:06:00.001+08:00

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Eurozone trade balance june: nsa EUR 17.3 bln vs 14.5 bln prev
July EZ final HICP 1.6% vs 1.6% exp y/y
EURUSD option expiries today
EURJPY orders 16 August
Swissy orders 16 August
EURGBP orders 16 August
AUSUSD orders 16 August
Technical levels 16 August
USDJPY orders 16 August
Eurozone current account june: sa EUR +16.9 bln vs +19 bln exp
AUDUSD rally seen running into offers too
EURUSD off its lows but sellers noted nearby
Morgan Stanley issue a USDCHF buy recco
European equity markets open softer
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.64% 2068.45
GBPUSD orders 16 August
SCI fickle finger of fat: Update
EURUSD orders 16 August
Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.1% in early trading
Nikkei closes down 0.75% at 13,650.11

Eurozone trade balance june: nsa EUR 17.3 bln vs 14.5 bln prev

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 02:01 AM PDT

prior reading revised down from 15.2

EURUSD still glued to the spot around 1.3350

July EZ final HICP 1.6% vs 1.6% exp y/y

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior 1.6%
-0.5% vs -0.5% exp m/m. Prior +0.1%
Ex-food/energy -0.7% vs -0.6% exp m/m. Prior +0.1%
1.3% vs 1.1% exp y/y. Prior 1.3%
Ex-ciggies -0.6% from 0.1% prior m/m. 1.5% from 1.6% y/y
Ex-food/energy/fags -0.9% vs 0.0% prior m/m. 1.1% vs 1.2% y/y

Not much to see here and Inflation holding steady and well within the ECB target of “On or close to 2%”

EURUSD option expiries today

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:38 AM PDT

Further to my post earlier I’m now hearing that there is also a large expiry at 1.3350

Haven’t got details of exact size but traders saying it might be enough to anchor the pair around the price until expiry

Just one to bear in mind as always

EURJPY orders 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:29 AM PDT

Currently 129.93

Sellers 130.40 130.50 130.75 131.00 131.20 131.50

Buyers 129.80 129.50 129.25 129.00 128.85

Swissy orders 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:29 AM PDT

USD/CHF

Offers

0.9400
0.9320, 0.9335, 0.9350

Bids

0.9250, 0.9235, 0.9220

EUR/CHF

Offers

1.2400, 1.2430, 1.2440, 1.2450 (stops on a break)
1.2390

Bids

1.2330, 1.2300

EURGBP orders 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:26 AM PDT

Currently 0.8531

Sellers 0.8565 0.8575 0.8580-85 0.8610 0.8620 0.8630

Buyers 0. 8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450 0.8420

AUSUSD orders 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:20 AM PDT

Currently at 0.9188 just chewing through some orders up to 0.9200

Sellers 0.9190 0.9200 0.9220 0.9230 0.9250 0.9260 0.9290 0.9300

Buyers 0.9145 0.9125 0.9110 0.9100 0.9080 0.9050

Technical levels 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:14 AM PDT

Good morning everyone.

Hope you’re all unscathed and in profit from the moves yesterday?

Here are today’s levels.

Technical levels 16 August 2013

USDJPY orders 16 August

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:11 AM PDT

Currently 97.33

I should also draw your attention to my option expiries post earlier which shows some very large contracts rolling off today

Sellers 97.75 97.85 98.00 98.25 98.50 98.65 98.75 99.00

Buyers 97.20 97.00 96.80 96.60 96.50 96.00

Eurozone current account june: sa EUR +16.9 bln vs +19 bln exp

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 01:00 AM PDT

EUR +19.5 bln prev revised down from +19.6 bln
nsa EUR bln +26.1 bln vs +9.5 bln prev
net investment flows EUR+ 18.1 bln vs 39.5 bln prev revised up from 30.1 bln

AUDUSD rally seen running into offers too

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 12:37 AM PDT

This pair has also had a perky start to the day but also has offers nearby

First tranche here at 0.9180 with real money placing orders into 0.9200

Currently 0.9179

EURUSD off its lows but sellers noted nearby

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 12:34 AM PDT

EURUSD has picked up a few buyers from the 1.3326 lows earlier

Currently 1.3348

Asian sell interest reported between 1.3360-70

Morgan Stanley issue a USDCHF buy recco

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 12:17 AM PDT

Like ‘em, loathe ‘em or just ignore ‘em but MS have issued a recommendation this morning to buy USDCHF

Gone long at 0.9290

Stop at 0.9160

T/P 0.9700

Well, their risk/reward ratios are ok at least

Says MS:

CHF is a cheap way to fund long USD positions. SNB Danthine’s comments earlier this week support our view that low Swiss rates and the SNB’s floor arelikely to remain in place for the foreseeable future

European equity markets open softer

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 12:08 AM PDT

FTSE flat
DAX -0.4%
CAC 40 -0.1%
IBEX -0.1%
FTMIB -0.6%

Shanghai comp index closes down 0.64% 2068.45

Posted: 16 Aug 2013 12:05 AM PDT

Having surged over 5% on the the Everbright “problems”

GBPUSD orders 16 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 11:56 PM PDT

Currently1.5622

Sellers 1.5650-55 1.5680 1.5700 1.5710 ( stop loss buying if breached ) 1.5725 1.5750-55

Buyers 1.5615 1.5600 1.5585 1.5550 1.5525 1.5500

GBPUSD orders 16 August

SCI fickle finger of fat: Update

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 11:48 PM PDT

Everbright Securities admit their system had

problems

when using their own arbitrage system

I reckon so!

China’s daily 21st Century Business Herald also reports that Everbright is applying to cancel all its morning trades

Nothing further as yet

EURUSD orders 16 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 11:30 PM PDT

Currently 1.3337

Sellers 1.3360 1.3370 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3450

Buyers 1.3325 1.3310 1.3300 1.3285 1.3270 ( stop loss selling if breached) 1.3250 1.3210 1.3200

EURUSD orders 16 August

Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.1% in early trading

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 11:08 PM PDT

FTSE futures -0.3%
DAX futures -0.4%
CAC40 futures -0.1%

Nikkei closes down 0.75% at 13,650.11

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 11:04 PM PDT

-102.83
high 13,739.52
low 13,532.61
USDJPY 97.58

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2013-08-15T17:05:00.001+08:00

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EURJPY orders 15 August
AUDUSD orders 15 August
July UK retail sales 1.1% vs 0.6% m/m
EUR/GBP orders 15 August
UK retail sales up at 08.30 gmt
Technical levels 15 August
USDJPY orders 15 August
Germany’s chambers of commerce see 2013 export growth of 2%
GBPUSD orders 15 August
European equity markets open lower
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.87% at 2081.88
EURUSD orders 15 August
BOJ’s Iwata: Japanese economy showing positive moves
Japan’s Amari says economy remains halfway through toward end of deflation
Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.2%
Nikkei closes down 2.12% at 13,752.94
USDJPY shrugging off weaker Nikkei
Data coming up in this session
Option expiries 10am NY cut
Currency rates are back!

EURJPY orders 15 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:54 AM PDT

Currently 130.06

Sellers 130.35 130.50 130.70 131.00 131.15 131.20 131.50

Buyers 129.70 129.50 129.25 129.00 128.85

AUDUSD orders 15 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:49 AM PDT

Currently 0.9183

Sellers 0.9200 0.9220 0.9250 0.9285 0.9300 0.9315

Buyers 0.9155 0.9120 0.9100 0.9085 0.9050 0.9020 0.9000

July UK retail sales 1.1% vs 0.6% m/m

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

June prior retail sales 0.2%.
3.0% vs 2.5% exp y/y. Revised to 1.9%
Retail ex-fuel 1.1% vs 0.6% exp m/m revised to 0.3%
3.1% vs 2.7% exp y/y

A massive jump in retail sales. Up 1.1% year on year from the revision and cable gets the excuse it needs to bolt towards 1.5600. High so far 1.5581.

EUR/GBP falls into bids at 0.8525. GBP/USD inching up at 1.5588

EUR/GBP orders 15 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:29 AM PDT

Offers

0.8675
0.8660
0.8640
0.8625
0.8580

Bids

0.8525 stops through 0.8520
0.8500
0.8485

UK retail sales up at 08.30 gmt

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:19 AM PDT

Retail sales have been looking strong in the last few months and forecasters are looking for another monthly rise at 0.6% from 0.2% with year on year sales moving up to 2.5% from 2.2%. According to my feet on the ground, July had a strong start but tailed off in the last week or so. Many schools broke up which can give mixed results of people heading to the airport or doing last minute holiday shopping.

The good weather has continued to be a strong factor also so we should see sales remain up on the whole.

Technical levels 15 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 01:09 AM PDT

Morning guys Mike’s had to step away for a minute so I’ve only got the support and resistance levels for today.

Technical analysis levels 15 August 2013

USDJPY orders 15 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 12:36 AM PDT

Currently 97.76

Sellers 98.00 98.30 98.40 98.50 98.75 99.00

Buyers 97.50 97.20 97.00 96.85 96.75 96.50

Germany’s chambers of commerce see 2013 export growth of 2%

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 12:33 AM PDT

DJHK chambers of commerce quoted on the wires

rising to 4% in 2014
says German share of world trade will shrink 2013/14

GBPUSD orders 15 August

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 12:26 AM PDT

Currently 1.5530

Sellers 1.5550 1.5575 1.5580 1.5595 1.5605 1.5610 ( stop loss buying if breached )

Buyers 1.5500 1.5485 1.5455 1.5425 1.5400 1.5390

European equity markets open lower

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 12:08 AM PDT

FTSE flat
DAX -0.2%
CAC 40 -0.1%
IBEX -0.2%

Shanghai comp index closes down 0.87% at 2081.88

Posted: 15 Aug 2013 12:04 AM PDT

EURUSD orders 15 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 11:49 PM PDT

Currently 1.3288

Sellers 1.3310 1.3320 1.3340 1.3350 1.3370 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420

Buyers 1.3280 1.3255 1.3240 1.3235 1.3230 1.3215 1.3200

BOJ’s Iwata: Japanese economy showing positive moves

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 11:45 PM PDT

expects financial markets to reflect that trend

Govt offiicial quoted on reuters

USDJPY still 97.70

Japan’s Amari says economy remains halfway through toward end of deflation

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 11:10 PM PDT

Econ min on the wires

says priority is tax breaks on capex and R&D rather than corporate tax cut
has not received instruction from PM Abe re corp tax cuts

The debate continues

USDJPY higher at 97.80

Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.2%

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 11:06 PM PDT

DAX futures -0.2%
Cac40 futures -0.1%

Nikkei closes down 2.12% at 13,752.94

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 11:03 PM PDT

-297.22
high 13,981.16
low 13,711.12
USDJPY 97.69

USDJPY shrugging off weaker Nikkei

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 10:36 PM PDT

Nikkei still down on the day at 13,765.04 but USDJPY still looking well supported at 97.74 currently

Can it hold ?

Data coming up in this session

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 09:50 PM PDT

Good day one and all

Lots going on in our sessions this week eh?

Plenty of opportunity, and given that it’s still summer we certainly can’t be complaining

Main highlight this morning is UK retail sales then US weekly jobless claims and CPI

Good luck out there

Times GMT

Economic data 15 August

Option expiries 10am NY cut

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 09:41 PM PDT

USDJPY 95.80 96.00 97.10 98.10 98.90
EURUSD 1.3140 1.3250 1.3305 1.3330
GBPUSD 1.5425 1.5515 1.5545
USDCHF 0.9240
AUDUSD 0.9100 0.9180
USDCAD 1.0180
EURGBP 0.8550 0.8640 0.8650
EURCHF 1.2395
EURJPY 131.85

Currency rates are back!

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 09:12 PM PDT

Justin Timberlake may well have brought sexy back, but Adam Button has gone one better and brought back the currency rates to the front page of ForexLive!

Just follow the big red arrows …

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-14T17:07:00.001+08:00

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Swiss ZEW investor sentiment august: 7.2 vs 4.8 prev
EZ Q2 flash GDP 0.3% vs 0.2% exp q/q
UK BOE MPC minutes in full
Sterling running with the data
UK BOE MPC minutes: 9-0 vote to leave QE unchanged as prev
July UK Labour report: Claims -29.2k vs -15.0k exp
AUDUSD orders 14 August
Technical levels 14 August
EURJPY orders 14 August
USDJPY orders 14 August
German BDI federation cuts 2013 growth forecast to +0.5% vs +0.8% prev
Cable testing strong buying interest
Yen firmer as Japanese exporters step in
Swissy on the slide still
Swiss producer import prices july: m/m 0.0% as expected
Shanghai comp index closes down 0.29% at 2100.14
European equity markets open a little firmer
GBPUSD orders 14 August
French CPI final july: m/m -0.3% vs -0.4% exp
EURUSD orders 14 August

Swiss ZEW investor sentiment august: 7.2 vs 4.8 prev

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 02:04 AM PDT

EZ Q2 flash GDP 0.3% vs 0.2% exp q/q

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior -0.2% revised to -0.3% (Q1)
-0.7% vs -0.8% y/y. Prior -1.1%

Well Europe is officially out of recession (until the revision anyway). EUR/USD celebrates by falling 10 pips.

UK BOE MPC minutes in full

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:47 AM PDT

I gave you the link but here’s the minutes in full

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 31 July and 1 August 2013

14 August 2013

The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that:

The Committee intends not to raise Bank Rate from its current level of 0.5% at least until the Labour Force Survey (LFS) headline measure of the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7%, subject to the conditions below.

The MPC stands ready to undertake further asset purchases while the LFS unemployment rate remains above 7% if it judges that additional monetary stimulus is warranted. But until the unemployment threshold is reached, and subject to the conditions below, the MPC intends not to reduce the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves and, consistent with that, intends to reinvest the cashflows associated with all maturing gilts held in the Asset Purchase Facility.

This guidance linking Bank Rate and asset sales to the unemployment threshold would cease to hold if any of the following three knockouts were breached:

In the MPC's view, it is more likely than not that CPI inflation 18 to 24 months ahead will be 0.5 percentage points or more above the 2% target;
Medium-term inflation expectations no longer remain sufficiently well anchored;
The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) judges that the stance of monetary policy poses a significant threat to financial stability that cannot be contained by the substantial range of mitigating policy actions available to the FPC, the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority in a way consistent with their objectives.

Regarding the proposition, eight members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher, Ian McCafferty and David Miles) voted in favour. One member of the Committee (Martin Weale), while supportive of the adoption of forward guidance, voted against the proposition in order to register his preference for a time horizon for the first inflation knockout that was shorter than proposed. He nevertheless intended to form his future judgements about the application of guidance and the knockout criteria in line with the framework adopted by the Committee.

The Governor then invited the Committee to vote on the propositions that:

Bank Rate should be maintained at 0.5%;
The Bank of England should maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.

Regarding Bank Rate, the Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.

Regarding the stock of asset purchases, the Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.

Sterling running with the data

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:41 AM PDT

~~1.5500~~ under pressure in GBP/USD with the positive jobs number although the unemployment rate remaining unchanged will emphasise the low rate forward guidance.

1.5500 goes and posts a high of 1.5506. 1.5523 the first point of decent resistance being the 200 dma and Dec 2012 trendline.

UK BOE MPC minutes: 9-0 vote to leave QE unchanged as prev

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

9-0 to keep interest rates on hold as prev
8-1 for fwd guidance framework ( Weale the dissident)

Full minutes here

Headlines to follow here

Martin Weale votes against the framework for forward guidance framework as set out by governor Carney
Weale wanted shorter term horizon for 2.5% inflation knockout
still some split between hawks and doves
doves saying there is still a need for further stimulus but will see what impact fwd guidance has
most members say short-term interest rates out of line with economic outlook

Generally more hawkish than dovish but GBP better bid more on the better jobs data

July UK Labour report: Claims -29.2k vs -15.0k exp

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Prior -21.2k. Revised to -29.4
Claimant count rate down to 4.3% from 4.4% and lowest since Feb 2009
June Unemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.8% exp. Prior 7.8%
June Average earnings 2.1% vs 2.0% exp

Nice revision and the biggest fall since May 2010. Unemployment rate unchanged though.

Cable bolts to 1.5496. GBP/JPY puts on 70 pips to 152.37. EUR/GBP down to 0.8556 from 0.8590.

UK labour report chart 14 August 2013

AUDUSD orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:23 AM PDT

Currently 0.9098

Sellers 0.9115 0.9135 0.9150 0.9160 0.9180 0.9200 0.9220

Buyers 0.9085 0.9050 0.9020 0.9000 0.8975 0.8950 0.8920

Technical levels 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:21 AM PDT

Morning folks

Here are today’s levels.

Technical analysis levels 14 August 2013

EURJPY orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:18 AM PDT

Currently 130.38

Sellers 130.90 131.00 131.20 131.50 132.00

Buyers 130.00 129.85 129.50 129.20 129.00 128.80

USDJPY orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:15 AM PDT

Currently 98.25 again after just posting 98.01 lows

Sellers 98.50 98.60 98.80 99.00 99.15 99.30 99.50

Buyers 98.00 97.85 97.50 97.20 97.00 96.85

German BDI federation cuts 2013 growth forecast to +0.5% vs +0.8% prev

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 01:05 AM PDT

Latest from the BDI

last forecast was in Jan
says it will be difficult for Germany to reach 3.5% export growth this year as per previous forecast

Cable testing strong buying interest

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:52 AM PDT

As per my earlier orderboard there is good demand between 1.5430-20

Low so far 1.5429

Currently 1.5437

MPC minutes and UK jobs data out at 08.30 GMT

Yen firmer as Japanese exporters step in

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:40 AM PDT

Decent sell interest from exporters up toward 98.50 has capped USDJPY and forced yen pairs lower

Currently 98.08

EURJPY 130.15

Swissy on the slide still

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:23 AM PDT

In the absence of any real trend elsewhere, but generally a firmer USD prevailing, we’ve seen traders switch their attention back to the Swiss pairs

Adding to the CHF weakness have been recent comments from SNB members re-iterating their position on the 1.20 EURCHF cap, plus good buying interest from Swiss corporate names as I highlighted yesterday.

At that time we were seeing some decent resistance but a further move this morning has seen EURCHF break higher through 1.2400 to 1.2427 and USDCHF up to 0.9368

We’ve been long-time advocates of buying the dips on these pairs, although admittedly it’s not always been easy to pick the base, and a certain degree of pain has had to be worn on occasion. But hey, whoever said forex is easy ?!

Good two-way action up here on EURCHF with funds earlier seen taking some profit around 1.2420

Currently lower again at 1.2406 and 0.9354

Swiss producer import prices july: m/m 0.0% as expected

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:18 AM PDT

0.1% prev
y/y +0.5% vs 0.0% exp.+0.2% prev

Shanghai comp index closes down 0.29% at 2100.14

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:10 AM PDT

European equity markets open a little firmer

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:07 AM PDT

FTSE flat
DAX +0.1%
CAC40 +0.2%
IBEX +0.1%
FTMIB +0.2%

GBPUSD orders 14 August

Posted: 14 Aug 2013 12:02 AM PDT

Currently 1.5443

Sellers 1.5475 1.5500 1.5510 1.5530 1.5550 1.5575 1.5580 1.5600

Buyers 1.5430 1.5420 1.5410 1.5400 1.5385 1.5375 1.5350

French CPI final july: m/m -0.3% vs -0.4% exp

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 11:45 PM PDT

+0.2% prev
y/y +1.2% vs +1.1% exp 1.00% prev

EURUSD orders 14 August

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 11:12 PM PDT

Currently 1.3273

Sellers 1.3300 1.3320 1.3350 1.3370 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420

Buyers 1.3255 1.3235 1.3230 1.3220 1.3200 1.3190 1.3180

EURUSD orders 14 August

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2013-08-13T17:04:00.001+08:00

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EURUSD orders 13 August
June EZ industrial production 0.7% vs 0.8% exp m/m
August German ZEW economic sentiment index 42.0 vs 40.0 exp
Cable takes a little 40 pip round trip after UK price data
June UK ONS house prices 3.1% vs 3.5% exp
UK CPI july: y/y +2.8% vs +2.8% exp
July UK PPI Input 1.1% vs 1.4% exp: Output 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m
UK data coming up at the bottom of the hour
Technical levels 13 August
USD in demand again
Cable finds early buyers
European equity markets open higher
Shanghai comp index closes up 0.23% at 2106.16
Spanish CPI final july: m/m -0.5% vs -0.1% prev
EURGBP orders 13 August
GBPUSD orders 13 August
Eurostoxx 50 futures open up 0.4%
Nikkei closes on session highs at 13,867.00
German CPI final july: m/m +0.5% vs +0.5% prev
Nikkei posting new session highs

EURUSD orders 13 August

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 02:01 AM PDT

Apols for the late posting but I’ve been a little busy this morning

Currently 1.3294

Sellers 1.3320 1.3330 1.3350 1.3370 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 ( stop loss buying if 1.3425 breached ) 1.3450

Buyers 1.3280 1.3270 1.3265 ( stop loss selling if breached ) 1.3230 1.3200

June EZ industrial production 0.7% vs 0.8% exp m/m

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior -0.3%
0.3% vs 0.2% exp y/y. Prior -1.3%

August German ZEW economic sentiment index 42.0 vs 40.0 exp

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior 36.3
Current conditions index 18.3 vs 12.0 exp. Prior 10.6.

Cable takes a little 40 pip round trip after UK price data

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 01:50 AM PDT

Down to 1.5436 then back up to 1.5476.

Inflation held steady and even though input prices came in below expectations they are still high on import costs which will underpin the main inflation rate.

UK Input price data 13 August 2013

The problem his royal Carneyness will have is if the recovery starts to be seen in wage rises and other “home grown” inflationary data points. We want consumers to spend, we want a healthy house market but it’s getting the right balance. We’re going from trying to spark life into an economy to making sure it doesn’t run away with itself.

Who’d be a central banker eh?

June UK ONS house prices 3.1% vs 3.5% exp

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 01:31 AM PDT

Prior 2.9%

UK CPI july: y/y +2.8% vs +2.8% exp

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

+2.9% prev
m/m 0.0 % vs 0.0% exp -0.2% prev
RPI m/m 0.0% as exp vs -0.1% prev
y/y +3.1% as exp vs +3.3% prev

All in line expectations which will be a relief to Carney & Co

Continued fall in clothing prices and footwear reduced overall gains

GBPUSD higher at 1.5463 after a pre-post dip to 1.5454

July UK PPI Input 1.1% vs 1.4% exp: Output 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Input prior 0.2%
Output prior 0.1%

Year on year

Input 5.0% vs 5.50%. Prior 4.20%. Revised to 4.0%
Output 2.1% vs 2.1% exp. Prior 1.0%.

Core output

0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%. Revised to -0.1%
1.1% vs 1.2% exp y/y. Prior 1.0%. Revised to 0.9%

Input prices highest since March 2012. Output highest since Feb 2013.

Still a big gap between Input and Output prices which weighs on profit margins.

UK PPI data chart July 2013

UK data coming up at the bottom of the hour

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 01:26 AM PDT

08.30 GMT brings us the main event of the morning , now that the cricket has finished a day early.

UK CPI is forecast to come in at +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% prev. The BOE inflation report predicted that the figure will stay close to that level.

We’ve had some discussion in the comments section this morning about the impact of higher inflation on the pound, and my take/rationale is that higher inflation means less chance of easing further and more likelihood of higher rates sooner it the trend continues. But therein lays a danger.

Whilst the knee-jerk reaction to a higher than expected CPI number will be GBP-positive on a yield basis my view remains that the UK needs low rates for a long while yet if it is to recover steadily. Should inflation start to creep higher and rates head higher then our chances of sustained recovery will be vastly reduced, and indeed could/would have a negative impact.

Perhaps I’m being myopic but I will sell into any decent rally on that basis.

Also coming out is UK PPI for which input is forecast to come in higher at +1.4% due to increase in oil price exacerbated by fall in GBPUSD over the month.

Full forecasts for the data can be found here

Technical levels 13 August

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 12:59 AM PDT

Good Morning

Here are the levels for today. Have fun.

Technical analysis levels 13 August 2013

USD in demand again

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 12:22 AM PDT

USDJPY up to 97.71

Cable rally being capped and back down to 1.5465

EURUSD lower at 1.3289

AUDUSD rally stalled and now back down at 0.9133

Cable finds early buyers

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 12:10 AM PDT

Up to 1.5482

I’m hearing that a UK clearing bank is the main buyer

EURGBP down to 0.8595

UK CPI,RPI and PPI out at 08.30 GMT

European equity markets open higher

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 12:07 AM PDT

FTSE +0.1%
DAX +0.6%
CAC40 +0.3%
IBEX +0.2%
FTMIB +0.4%

Shanghai comp index closes up 0.23% at 2106.16

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 12:05 AM PDT

Spanish CPI final july: m/m -0.5% vs -0.1% prev

Posted: 13 Aug 2013 12:03 AM PDT

y/y +1.8% vs +2.1% prev

EURGBP orders 13 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 11:44 PM PDT

Currently 0.8603 having held the strong support at 0.8580 that I highlighted yesterday

Sellers 0.8620 0.8630 0.8640 0.8675 0.8730 0.8745

Buyers 0. 8580 0.8575 ( stop loss selling if 0.8570 breached) 0.8540 0.8500 0.8485

EURGBP orders 13 August

GBPUSD orders 13 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 11:31 PM PDT

Currently on o/n highs at 1.5468

Sellers 1.5480 1.5525 1.5535 1.5550 1.5560 1.5575 1.5580 1.5595 1.5605 1.5620

Buyers 1.5440 1.5430 1.5425 1.5400 1.5390 1.5375 1.5350

GBPUSD orders 13 August

Eurostoxx 50 futures open up 0.4%

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 11:08 PM PDT

DAX futures +0.5%
CAC 40 futures +0.4%

Bund futures 33 lower at 141.90

Nikkei closes on session highs at 13,867.00

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 11:05 PM PDT

+ 347.57
+2.57%
high 13,867
low 13,689.49
USDJPY 97.50

German CPI final july: m/m +0.5% vs +0.5% prev

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 11:00 PM PDT

y/y + 1.9% vs 1.9%
HICP final m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% exp/prev
y/y +1.9% as prev
wholesale prices m/m -0.3% vs -0.4% prev
y/y 0.0% vs +0.7% prev

Nikkei posting new session highs

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 10:19 PM PDT

13,835.22
+2.34%
USDJPY higher at 97.51

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-12T17:05:00.001+08:00

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GBPUSD orders 12 August
AUDUSD orders 12 August
EURJPY orders 12 August
Technical analysis levels 12 August
USDJPY orders 12 August
Fund sellers seen on AUDUSD
USD demand as Europe kicks in
Swiss retail sales june: y/y +2.3 vs +1.8% exp
Aussie dollar slides in early Europe
Shanghai Comp Index closes up 2.39% at 2101.28
European equities open mostly firmer
EURUSD orders 12 August
French current account june: EUR -1.4bln vs -3.5 bln prev
Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.4% in early trading
Nikkei closes down 0.7% at 13,519.43
Nikkei trading higher into the last half hour
Data coming up in this session
Option expiries 10am NY cut 12 August
Japan capacity utilization index june: m/m -2.3 vs +2.3 prev
Japan industrial output june revised: -3.1% vs -3.3% prev

GBPUSD orders 12 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 01:52 AM PDT

Currently 1.5476

Sellers 1.5490 1.5500 1.5525 1.5535 1.5550 1.5580 1.5600 1.5610 1.5620 ( stop loss buying if breached )

Buyers 1.5450 1.5430 1.5420 1.5410 1.5400 1.5385 1.5375 1.5365 1.5350

GBPUSD orders 12 August

AUDUSD orders 12 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 01:34 AM PDT

Curretly 0.9154

Sellers 0.9185 0.9200 0.9220 0.9250 0.9275 0.9300 0.9320

Buyers 0.9140 0.9130 0.9120 0.9100 0.9080 0.9050

AUDUSD orders 12 August

EURJPY orders 12 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 01:27 AM PDT

Currently 128.65

Sellers 129.00 129.20 129.40 129.50 129.80 130.00

Buyers 128.30 128.00 127.90 127.50 127.20 127.00

EURJPY orders 12 August

Technical analysis levels 12 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 01:25 AM PDT

Hi all. Hope you all had a good weekend.

Here are today’s levels.

USDJPY orders 12 August

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 01:20 AM PDT

Currently 96.77

Sellers 96.90 97.00 97.20 97.50 97.70 98.00

Buyers 96.40 96.20 96.00 95.90 95.80 95.65 95.50 95.00 ( barrier related. stop loss selling below)

USDJPY orders 12 August

Fund sellers seen on AUDUSD

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 01:11 AM PDT

Pushing the pair even lower through good buying interest at 0.9150

Currently on lows at 0.9146

More bids seen at 0.9125-30

USD demand as Europe kicks in

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 12:35 AM PDT

Other pairs playing catch up now after the earlier AUDUSD slide

GBPUSD and EURUSD both on session lows of 1.5473 and 1.3309

USDJPY leading the way at 96.81 dragging most yen pairs higher with it

EURJPY 128.90 but good size sell interest seen at 129.00

Swiss retail sales june: y/y +2.3 vs +1.8% exp

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 12:19 AM PDT

+1.8% prev
m/m +0.5% vs -0.3% prev revised down from -0.1%

USDCHF & EURCHF little changed at 0.9240 and 1.2310

Aussie dollar slides in early Europe

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 12:14 AM PDT

I’m not hearing anything to explain why but I’m on the hunt for info

AUDUSD down to 0.9173 from 0.9210 when I sat down

Buyers seen at 0.9150. Sellers lining up at 0.9220

GBPAUD higher at 1.6880

AUDJPY holding up as USDJPY turns higher

Shanghai Comp Index closes up 2.39% at 2101.28

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 12:07 AM PDT

European equities open mostly firmer

Posted: 12 Aug 2013 12:05 AM PDT

FTSE +0.1%
DAX +0.04%
CAC40+0.1%
IBEX -0.1%
FTMIB +0.1%

EURUSD orders 12 August

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 11:58 PM PDT

Currently 1.3320

Sellers 1.3340 1.3350 1.3380 1.3390 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3435 1.3450

Buyers 1.3310 1.3300 1.3285 1.3265 1.3250 1.3230

EURUSD market orders 12 August

French current account june: EUR -1.4bln vs -3.5 bln prev

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 11:46 PM PDT

prev revised up from -4.1 bln

Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.4% in early trading

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 11:05 PM PDT

FTSE futures +0.3%
DAX futures +0.3%
CAC40 futures +0.3%

Bund futures up 16 at 142.44

Nikkei closes down 0.7% at 13,519.43

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 11:03 PM PDT

-95.76
high 13,658.86
low 13,430.64
USDJPY 96.50

Nikkei trading higher into the last half hour

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 10:27 PM PDT

13,528.19
-0.65%
low 13,430.64
USDJPY up to 96.57

Data coming up in this session

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 09:59 PM PDT

Good day everyone

I trust you all had a great w-e

Not a lot immediately to go on this morning, and little by way of data coming up

So let’s hope for a spark from somewhere

The cricket between England and Australia is beautifully poised with two days to go eh?

Have a fantastic week and I hope we can be of help along the way

Times GMT

Economic data 12 aug 2013

Option expiries 10am NY cut 12 August

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 09:51 PM PDT

USDJPY 96.00 97.10 98.00 98.85
EURUSD 1.3100 1.3300 1.3400 1.3450
GBPUSD 1.5600 1.5615
AUDUSD 0.9100 0.9150
USDCAD 1.0380
EURCHF 1.2275
GBPJPY 150.00

Japan capacity utilization index june: m/m -2.3 vs +2.3 prev

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 09:39 PM PDT

USDJPY still 96.43

Japan industrial output june revised: -3.1% vs -3.3% prev

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 09:37 PM PDT

Prelim release posted here

USDJPY little moved at 96.43

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2013-08-11T17:04:00.001+08:00

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Wall Street Journal: Data Suggest China’s Economy Stabilizing
“Spain’s banks are now, finally, blowing out bad real estate to bottom-feeding hedge funds”
Fortress, Blackstone, Apollo say now is the time to sell on surge
Fonterra pulls ‘DCD’ milk powder in Sri Lanka, disputes test
Swiss National Bank says the cap on the Swiss franc “is the top priority”
The Reserve Bank of Australia is growing confident about Australia’s economy over the medium term
Reuters article: China to let banks sell off loans in prelude to possible bailout
Bloomberg article: China Factories Turn to Undocumented Labor as Local Wages Jump
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America all hiring FX dealers
Bitcoin ticker being tested for inclusion on Bloomberg
Greece posts a budget surplus for January – July 2013

Wall Street Journal: Data Suggest China’s Economy Stabilizing

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 12:48 AM PDT

Just catching up on the Wall Street Journal over the weekend.

Data Suggest China’s Economy Stabilizing (The Wall Street Journal is often gated, so if you're unable to access the article try a search of Google news using the headline)

The main points:

China showed more signs of economic resilience in July
Economists are cautious about whether the fresh signs of strength are pointing toward a more sustained rebound in the months ahead

Mike posted on the better than expected Chinese industrial production data late in the Asian day on Friday:

Chinese industrial production July: y/y +9.7% vs +9.0% exp

“Spain’s banks are now, finally, blowing out bad real estate to bottom-feeding hedge funds”

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 12:39 AM PDT

A great little article from one of my favourite blogs. Admittedly I started reading this blog because of its title, and I only dip in from time-to-time.

It says that Spain’s banks are now selling distressed real-estate assets to hedge funds …

“And so the healing has begun in the Spanish real estate market”,

“Buy Spain, buy it now.”

The author quotes this article in the Wall Street Journal: Private-Equity Firm H.I.G. to Buy Spanish Real-Estate Assets (The Wall Street Journal is often gated, so if you're unable to access the article try a search of Google news using the headline)

Spanish officials managing soured assets from the country’s real-estate collapse announced their first big property deal, choosing Miami-based private-equity firm H.I.G. Capital to buy a majority stake in a package of 939 homes known as Project Bull.

Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

Mathews also adds that the UK economy is “already catching fire—believe me, it's on fire: just look at the data”

Fortress, Blackstone, Apollo say now is the time to sell on surge

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 12:27 AM PDT

One for the equity and equity-derivative traders:

Private-equity managers from Fortress Investment Group to Blackstone Group … say now is the time to exit investments as stocks rally and interest rates start to rise.
Fortress is preparing holding for public offerings
Says this is a better time for selling existing investments than making new investments
Apollo Global Management CEO said last month the environment is ripe for selling because credit markets are hot and equities strong

Bloomberg data shows a 20% decline in the number of private equity deals

Fonterra pulls ‘DCD’ milk powder in Sri Lanka, disputes test

Posted: 11 Aug 2013 12:11 AM PDT

Sri Lankan authorities ordered New Zealand-based Fonterra to withdraw milk powder
Authorities said testing showed traces of the toxic agricultural chemical dicyandiamide (DCD),
Fonterra has withdrawn to milk powder from sale, but has disputed the accuracy of the testing

It said two batches of milk powder had been removed from shops last month … But Fonterra’s chief executive said the product was clean and safe and it was contesting the Sri Lankan results and the ban.

“We are definitely fighting it, because we have clear certificates – DCD-free, stamped, when it was exported, when it was imported – all clear,” Fonterra’s chief executive Theo Spierings told Television New Zealand.

Swiss National Bank says the cap on the Swiss franc “is the top priority”

Posted: 10 Aug 2013 11:58 PM PDT

Jean-Pierre Danthine,the Swiss National Bank’s vice chairman, told Swiss Sunday newspaper Le Matin Dimanche

“At the moment, the cap on the franc is the top priority”

and that it will enforce its cap on the Swiss franc for as long as it is necessary.

He said that the SNB’s cap on the exchange rate limited its capacity to act on interest rates, but, in addition, “The opposite is also true: we’re intervening on exchange rates because interest rates are at zero”.

He added

“On the day the SNB decides to raise short-term interest rates, there can no longer be a cap that’s being enforced”

Said rates will rise again “one day”
Said banks are underestimating the risks, and that a rise in rates would have a “significant negative impact on banks”

Maybe the banks are underestimating the risks, but Swiss consumers seem to be more cautious, data on Wednesday showed Q3 Swiss consumer confidence coming in 10 points lower than economists forecast

The Reserve Bank of Australia is growing confident about Australia’s economy over the medium term

Posted: 10 Aug 2013 07:23 PM PDT

A good wrap-up from the Wall Street Journal (ungated). In summary:

In its Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia has subtly altered its language, no longer saying that benign inflation gave it "scope" to cut further, but that rates will be adjusted "as needed".
This altered language is a signal that policy makers are growing confident about Australia's economy over the medium term.
The RBA will not be on hold as they let previous cuts work their way through the economy and wait for signs of recovery to become more apparent.

It appears to me that the future path for interest rates in Australia is, as always, data-dependent. If the ‘transition’ (from mining investment to other sectors of the economy) slows, or does not produce economic growth sufficient to propel employment gains then its back to the chopping board for the bank (inflation allowing, of course)

Reuters article: China to let banks sell off loans in prelude to possible bailout

Posted: 10 Aug 2013 07:22 PM PDT

This is an interesting article from Reuters. China is developing a new trading platform to enable banks to sell off loans to a wider range of investors. At present banks have two choices for disposing of non-performing loans, sell “in private deals, mostly with big state-backed asset management firms, or keep rolling them over indefinitely to avoid booking a loss”. Hardly appealing.

But the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is working to introduce a system to allow for price discovery for loan transfers thereby increasing transparency in pricing, and so making it more attractive to potential investors.

Most analysts believe Beijing will eventually be forced to use some public funds to help peel off bad loans from state banks, but the ability to draw in at least some private capital could reduce the cost of that bailout.

More details at the link, and also more from the always-excellent Izabella Kaminska at FTAlphaville (read with free registration):

The idea is mainly for banks to be able to shed non-performing assets from their balance sheets and free them up to support the economy with fresh credit.

She also quotes one analyst as saying that if the initiative is successful it could pave the way for a significant boost to Chinese asset valuations as well as significantly revive Chinese commodity purchases.

Bloomberg article: China Factories Turn to Undocumented Labor as Local Wages Jump

Posted: 10 Aug 2013 07:22 PM PDT

Bloomberg reports that as wages in China have grown to help boost consumer spending factories along the east-coast export corridor are importing undocumented and lower-paid workers from Myanmar and Vietnam:

"Thousands" of workers from Vietnam and Myanmar were discovered working illegally in Shenzhen between 2010 and 2012, the state-run China News Service reported, citing a local prosecutor.

These workers are paid about what half a local makes
No health care
No pensions

Sounds familiar …

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America all hiring FX dealers

Posted: 10 Aug 2013 06:17 PM PDT

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and others are hiring FX dealers, taking on Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Barclays and JPMorgan Chase as volumes and volatility increase and the regulatory environment is seen as more favourable. Banks are seeking larger share of the market.

Volatility in major currencies has created opportunities for Wall Street banks to make money facilitating client trades… Competition is particularly intense among banks because the foreign exchange sector is under fewer new regulations than other areas of trading

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-10T17:02:00.001+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

The money is coming in on Larry Summers but tapering a better bet
ForexLive Americas wrap: Canadian dollar brushes off weak jobs report
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Speculators bet on the euro
Obama sounds like he’s hunting for a dove
Obama says it’s appropriate for US to take a pause in relationship with Russia and re-assess
It’s been awhile since I was able to say this: The Australian dollar was the best performer this week
Big week ahead for the euro – technical analysis
I get the feeling AEP doesn’t own any Japanese bonds
Any of you guys been to Panama?
Cable heads down the pub after crushing all in its wake this week
Ireland looking for the bailout exit door
Euro unimpressed by European stock market gains
AUD/USD breaks 0.9200
USD/CAD turns around like an unemployed Canadian looking across the Detroit River
Stocks falling further, S&P 500 down 0.4%
US ECRI weekly index 131.8 vs 131.8 prior
EUR/USD & GBP/USD Technical analysis 9 August
The #1 most under-reported story this year
June US wholesale sales +0.4% vs +0.7% exp m/m
US stocks open 9 August

The money is coming in on Larry Summers but tapering a better bet

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 03:44 PM PDT

Larry Summers is now a prohibitive one-to-two favorite to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, far surpassing Janet Yellen at two-to-one, according to Paddy Power.

Zero Hedge has been tracking the odds and their numbers show a quick shift to Summers that has continued since Wednesday.

I have to take that with a grain of salt because you have no idea what kind of volumes are at work. If they’re small, a single large bet on Summers (betting was closed for a period so it’s possible) could have driven Summers higher. The odds could simply be a reflection of them wanting to hedge by getting money in on Yellen.

The Paddy Power bets on tapering might be more interesting. They have a prop on “the first month of the implementation of reduction of quantitative easing bond buying currently set at $85bn per month.” The 7/4 odds on September imply a 36% chance which seems low but the word implementation is an important caveat. The Fed decision isn’t until Sept 18 and that might not give the Fed enough time to implement a stop to QE purchases. Even if they announce tapering in Sept, they might not implement it until October. With the October odds at 7/1 indicating only a 12% chance of tapering, that might be the better bet.

In any case, stuff like this makes me miss InTrade.

ForexLive Americas wrap: Canadian dollar brushes off weak jobs report

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 02:17 PM PDT

Forex headlines for August 9, 2013:

Canada loses 39.4K jobs in July compared to a 10K jobs gain expected
June US wholesale sales +0.4% vs +0.7% exp m/m
German GDP growth at 0.75% in Q2 2013
July Canadian housing starts 192.9k vs 193.5k exp y/y
Obama: Time to take a pause in relationship with Russia and re-assess
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Speculators bet on the euro
AEP says not to worry about Japanese debt, really
S&P 500 down 0.4% to 1691
Gold up $1 to $1314
WTI crude up $2.72 to $106.12/barrel
AUD leads, EUR lags

As the hours the week wound down the US dollar recovered some of its losses against the euro and pound but fell further against CAD and AUD.

The Canadian jobs report was the highlight on the calendar and it was an atrocious report. As you might expect, USD/CAD jumped a half-cent on the release. The surprise was that it didn’t continue higher. Instead, it turned around a fell to the lows of the week. As I told Reuters, “That sort of move on a data point makes people change their perspective on a currency.”

EUR/USD looked more like a round of profit taking, especially after the failure to take out 1.34001.3415. There is some major resistance ahead and the pair chopped lower, hitting some sell stops at 1.3340 on the way to a low of 1.3333.

It was a similar story for cable as it pulled back after a big week of agains. After topping 1.5560 it struggled at that level on Friday and profit taking took over afterwards. The pair slipped below 1.5500 several times but couldn’t break 1.5497, suggesting some heavy buyers were loading up just below the big figure. That’s something to watch at the open.

AUD/USD snuck above 0.9200 in its fifth consecutive day of gains. This week was the virtual mirror of last week and better days may be ahead for the Aussie. The high of the day was 0.9214.

USD/JPY couldn’t muster the same kind of bounce and has declined in 5 of the past 6 days. The pair started US trading at 96.45 and ends the day at 96.21, just a hair above the lows of the day.

Here is the performance of various currencies against the US ~~peso~~ dollar this week.

Bet against the US dollar? Everyone’s a winner!

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Speculators bet on the euro

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:40 PM PDT

Futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the close on Tuesday, August 6, 2013:

EUR net long 6k vs short 8k prior
JPY net short 80K vs short 82K prior
GBP net short 46K vs short 49K prior
AUD net short 77K vs short 73K prior
CAD net short 10K vs short 11K prior
NZD net short 1K vs short 1K prior
CHF net short 0.3k vs short 1K prior
Dollar Index net long 25K vs 25K prior

Speculators shift to euro net long position for the first time since late June.

I don’t do technical analysis on fundamental charts (because that’s straight voodoo) but this one looks like a ‘buy’.

EUR CFTC net positioning August 9 2013

Obama sounds like he’s hunting for a dove

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:37 PM PDT

Obama spoke some vague comments on the next Fed chairman, saying the nomination will come in the Fall and notes there are a range of candidates including Yellen and Summers. These

The other mandate for Fed is full employment
The challenge now is not inflation, it’s that there are too many people unemployed
Wants a Chairman who is able to look at those issues and have a perspective that keeps and eye on inflation while making sure the economy is growing robustly

Translation: I want a dove. Not exactly the kind of thing you want to hear if you’re an inflation-fearing bondholder.

Obama says it’s appropriate for US to take a pause in relationship with Russia and re-assess

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:25 PM PDT

That’s a major statement. Obama is seriously pissed about Edward Snowden.

Obama adds that the US made a lot of progress with Russian when Medvedev was President but when Putin came back to power there was more anti-American rhetoric. This is a spat that is turning into something a little more and could hurt some businesses.

It’s been awhile since I was able to say this: The Australian dollar was the best performer this week

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 11:20 AM PDT

AUD/USD longs were the best trade this week, gaining 3% or 291 pips. It was impressive gain after months of declines but it still wasn’t enough to wipe out the losses last week.

AUD/USD weekly chart

The important thing to note is that it came after some bad news, albeit better signals out of China mitigated some of the worries. Later today, we get the weekly positioning data from the CFTC and it shows the best reason to be long AUD. The market is extremely short.

Australian dollar net position COT

I have been short AUD/USD and argued for more shorts but when the market is so one-sided, you have to be on extra alert. It’s not time to go long AUD/USD but a rally above 0.9330 would likely kick off a long-awaited relief rally.

If you want to avoid the risk of a US dollar rally, look to AUD/CAD which is trying to break above its recent channel.

AUD/CAD daily chart

Big week ahead for the euro – technical analysis

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 10:54 AM PDT

The euro has been a technical trader’s dream for the past month. It bounced precisely from the annual lows in April and has climbed more than 500 pips. Resistance at 1.3300 proved to be a tough technical challenge but once EUR/USD finally scored a daily close above, it was a straight shot higher.

The euro is lower today but technically it’s in a good position for a breakout above the June highs and the 200-week moving average to a test of 1.37.

EURUSD weekly chart with 200-WMA

The week ahead is extremely light on economic data but Tuesday’s ZEW could get things moving along with Eurozone GDP on Wednesday. The threat might come from the US side of the equation of the dollar finally shakes of the slack. US retail sales are on Tuesday and CPI comes Friday.

An initial failure at 1.34 won’t be a big setback for the euro but it would bear close watching.

I get the feeling AEP doesn’t own any Japanese bonds

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 10:19 AM PDT

Like a thundershower on a sunny day, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard can put a negative slant on just about anything but today he takes on Japan’s enormous debt problem and says not to worry.

Japan's QE will never be fully unwound. Nor should it be. If a country can eliminate a large chunk of unsustainable debt without setting off an inflation spiral, or a currency crash, or the bubonic plague, there has to be a very strong reason not to do it. I have yet hear such a reason…. Japan has to pick its poison. Abenomics is surely the sweeter brew.

Just in case you thought he was turning over a new leaf with all the summer sunshine, he also wrote about Greek youth unemployment hitting 65% in data released today.

Any of you guys been to Panama?

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 10:10 AM PDT

I’m thinking of heading down to Panama for a few months. Good internet and good food is all I need to keep ForexLive rocking.

Good music helps too:

Cable heads down the pub after crushing all in its wake this week

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 09:16 AM PDT

Not a bad week for the old bird really. A hold above 1.55 into the weekend would be another positive sign but the way markets are at the moment either direction looks a slow slog. It may be a ghost of its past glory but it’s given a brief reminder of what cable used to be like to trade everyday.

Anyway, I’m clocking off for the week. With the new football season only a week away I need to get into pre-season training with a big session down the pub tomorrow. Got a long 9 months drinking ahead following my hapless team around the country.

Don’t worry though, I won’t bug you with it as much as Mike does with the cricket

(Only joking MP)

Hope you all have a spanking weekend and thanks for spending your daily grind with us.

Ireland looking for the bailout exit door

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 08:43 AM PDT

Aiming for precautionary credit line to replace bailout
Wants any new post-bailout conditions to focus solely on banking sector

So says a government source via BBG

Euro unimpressed by European stock market gains

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 08:37 AM PDT

The euro is at the lows of the day after running through the stops below 1.3340 that I mentioned earlier. There is some modest demand at 1.3320 and on either side of 1.3300.

Here are the closing changes:

UK FTSE +0.8%
French CAC +0.3%
German DAX +0.1%
Spain IBEX +0.5%
Italy MIB +0.2%

Small gains/losses on the week for European stocks with the periphery outperforming the core.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is at the lows of the day, down 9 points.

AUD/USD breaks 0.9200

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 08:08 AM PDT

0.9204 the high so far and it’s very touchy feely. Given the recent move down I suspect bulls will have one finger over the exit button at the first sign of big offers coming in.

A further move higher will bring the 55 dma into focus at 0.9282, ahead of the big 0.93 which held big resistance last time.

EUR/AUD is feeling the heat from the rise falling to strong support at 1.4500 which is holding for now.

EUR/AUD technical analysis chart 9 August 2013

USD/CAD turns around like an unemployed Canadian looking across the Detroit River

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 07:58 AM PDT

USD/CAD tried the upside and narrowly took out 1.0352 but it has been hammered back down toward the lows of the day at 1.0305.

I was skeptical of USD/CAD weakness yesterday but this move is harder to doubt. Key support is down in the 1.0280 zone and the July low at 1.0246.

USDCAD daily chart 100-day moving avg

Stocks falling further, S&P 500 down 0.4%

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 07:50 AM PDT

It’s starting to get interesting in the stock market with the S&P 500 down 7 points. There is scattered support down to 1685 but it could begin to weigh on USD/JPY.

US ECRI weekly index 131.8 vs 131.8 prior

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 07:30 AM PDT

Prior revised to 131.7
Annualised rate 5.3% from 4.9% prior

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Technical analysis 9 August

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 07:28 AM PDT

Well we’ve managed to get the days range to 41 pips in the euro and 62 in the pound but it’s slow going.

Bids cited by Adam at 1.3350 have held up for now but the slow grind lower looks to continue.

Support is minor on the way down with the first being tech support and the broken May 2011 trendline at 1.3338/40 then The Feb 2013 broken trendline and Tech sup at 1.3297/02.

EUD/USD technical analysis chart 9 August 2013

In what are quiet market conditions the tech at the edge of a 50 odd pip move may provide good levels to take profit or get into small positions.

It’s a similar story in cabel where we have not managed to gain a foothold above the 200 dma and Dec 2012 trendline at 1.5531/38. We’re back below and these levels are likely to bring in minor resistance on any move up.

GBP/USD technical analysis chart 9 August 2013

I’m liking the look of support in cable down at the 1.5303/25 region. There’s both 55 & 100 h4ma’s and dma’s. There’s obviously a way to go but if we do get any big moves next week those areas (particularly the dma’s) could provide some decent support.

The #1 most under-reported story this year

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 07:17 AM PDT

Emerging market growth is sputtering.

There has been plenty of chatter about China but the story is far bigger than one country. Is there a single emerging market country that’s put in surprisingly good growth this year? I’m sure there is one but as a whole it has been a parade of disappointment.

Today, Russian reported Q2 GDP growth at just 1.2% y/y compared to 1.6% in Q1. Brazil also cut its 2013 GDP estimate to 2.1% from 2.3% (and 2014 to 1.7% from 2.2%). Update: And now JPMorgan has cut its 2013 forecast for Mexico to 2.4% from 2.8%.

Here is the progression in IMF global and EM/developing world forecasts for 2013 since January:

Jan – World 3.5%, EM 5.5%
April – World 3.3% EM 5.3%
July – World 3.1% EM 5.0%

They’re now on the wrong side of the consensus in a handful of large EM countries, including a fanciful 7.8% forecast for in China and 2.5% for Brazil.

What’s one takeaway? Oil at $105 doesn’t make much sense. Commodity currencies are bouncing now but at some time in the not-to-distant future (Sept?) they’ll be a screaming sell.

June US wholesale sales +0.4% vs +0.7% exp m/m

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 07:05 AM PDT

Prior 1.6%. Revised to 1.5%
Inventories -0.2% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior -0.5% revised to -0.6%.
Inventory to sales ratio 1.17 vs 1.18 prior, lowest since April 2012

That’s the second straight unexpected fall. The inventory/sales ratio is dropping but that’s only a good thing if sales are picking up. They are but not at a great rate.

There were big drops in auto inventories but big increases in computer equipment. Excluding autos inventories were flat. It’s this component that goes into GDP so we could get economists marking down growth estimates

Sorry for the delay folks it all went a bit pear shaped round our back end.

US stocks open 9 August

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 06:35 AM PDT

S&P -2.38pts or -0.14% to 1695.10
Dow -24.66 pts or -0.16% to 15473.66
Nasdaq -4.37 pts or -0.12% to 3664.76

US 10 year yields 2.60% +1bp

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-09T17:03:00.001+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

AUDUSD orders 9 August
UK construction output Q2 :q/q +1.4% vs 0.9% exp
June UK trade balance -£8.08bn vs £-8.5bn exp
UK trade balance coming up at the bottom of the hour
July China M2 money supply +14.5% from 14.1% exp y/y
Italian trade balance june: EUR + 3.618 bln vs 3.926 bln prev
Technical levels 9 August
USDJPY orders 9 August
German econ ministry expects industrial production to continue growing
European equity markets open slightly firmer
Shanghai Comp Index closes up 0.36% at 2052.24
French budget balance june: EUR -59.3 bln vs -72.6 bln prev
French industrial production june: m/m -1.4% vs +0.1% exp
EURUSD orders 9 August
Greek fin min says Eurozone needs common debt market to exit crisis
AUDUSD on the march but running into sellers
GBPUSD orders 9 August
Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.4%
Nikkei closes up 0.07% at 13,615.19
Nikkei back into positive territory on the day

AUDUSD orders 9 August

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 01:54 AM PDT

Currently 0.9154 having taken out strong sell interest at 0.9150.German names buying

Sellers 0.9160 ( stop loss buying if breached ) 0.9190 0.9200 0.9210 0.9250 0.9280 0.9300

Buyers 0.9115 0.9100 0.9090 0.9080 0.9050 0.9020 0.9000

audusd orders 9 aug

UK construction output Q2 :q/q +1.4% vs 0.9% exp

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 01:32 AM PDT

y/y -0.5%
nsa m/m+0.7%

Not a prime mover as such but ONS says it implies no change to Q2 to one decimal place

GBPUSD little changed 1.5538

June UK trade balance -£8.08bn vs £-8.5bn exp

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 01:30 AM PDT

Prior -£8.49bn revised to -£8.668bn
Non Eu trade bal -£2.646bn vs -£3.80bn exp. Prior -£4.09bn revised to -£4.019bn

Total goods and services balance -£1.546bn vs May revised -£2.612bn, lowest since Jan 2013.

The trade balance has still been fairly choppy over the last few quarters but that drop takes it to the smallest deficit since Jan 2012. The non-EU deficit is the smallest since Oct 2005.

It indicates that trade to the EU is growing but trade outside the EU is fairing better.

UK trade balance deficit June 2013

UK trade balance coming up at the bottom of the hour

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 01:18 AM PDT

The main event of the morning at 08.30 GMT

June reading for global trade is expected to come in at GBP-8.5 bln vs -8.49 prev

Non-EU expected at GBP -3.8 bln vs -4.09 bln

Let’s hope for a wild one !

July China M2 money supply +14.5% from 14.1% exp y/y

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 01:10 AM PDT

July Yuan lending +14.3% from 14.2% exp y/y
July loans ¥699.9bn vs ¥665bn exp

Italian trade balance june: EUR + 3.618 bln vs 3.926 bln prev

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 01:06 AM PDT

prev revised up from EUR 3.895 bln

Technical levels 9 August

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:59 AM PDT

Good morning all.

Here’s the low down for today.

USDJPY orders 9 August

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:43 AM PDT

Currently 96.65

Sellers 96.90 97.00 97.15 97.20 97.45 97.80 98.00

Buyers 96.35 96.00 95.80 95.50 95.00

usdjpy orders 9 aug

German econ ministry expects industrial production to continue growing

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:26 AM PDT

although not too dynamically
says economic output probably increased notably in Q2
private consumption and construction investment likely to hsve driven Q2 growth

European equity markets open slightly firmer

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:06 AM PDT

FTSE +0.2%
DAX +0.2%
CAC40 +0.2%
IBEX +0.1%
FTMIB +0.1%

Shanghai Comp Index closes up 0.36% at 2052.24

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:04 AM PDT

recovered from negative territory after better Chinese data

French budget balance june: EUR -59.3 bln vs -72.6 bln prev

Posted: 09 Aug 2013 12:00 AM PDT

govt spending y/y +5.9%
revenues y/y +5.0%

French industrial production june: m/m -1.4% vs +0.1% exp

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:49 PM PDT

-0.3% prev revised up from -0.4%
mftg output m/m-0.4%
EURUSD a little lower on the weaker data 1.3380

EURUSD orders 9 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:44 PM PDT

Currently 1.3385

Sellers 1.3400 1.3410 1.3420 1.3450 1.3480 1.3485 1.3500

Buyers 1.3375 1.3350 1.3320 1.3300 1.3280 1.3265 1.3235 1.3230

eurusd orders 9aug

Greek fin min says Eurozone needs common debt market to exit crisis

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:34 PM PDT

Mr Stournaras on reuters

Greece needs primary budget surplus with growth before it returns to debt markets

Not wrong there !

AUDUSD on the march but running into sellers

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:31 PM PDT

Good buying interest on this pair after the Chinese data

First rally to 0.9131 got sold back down to 0.9111 on t/p trades but has climbed again to 0.9148 in a rush

Strong selling order interest at 0.9150 capping this latest rally though with more offers behind that all the way to 0.9200

Currently 0.9144

GBPUSD orders 9 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:26 PM PDT

Currently 1.5549

Sellers 1.5570 1.5580 1.5595 1.5605 1.5620 1.5630 1.5650

Buyers 1.5530 1.5520 1.5500 1.5480 1.5450 1.5435 1.5410 1.5400

cable orders 9 aug

Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.4%

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:05 PM PDT

DAX futures +0.3%
CAC40 futures +0.2%

Bund futures down 19 at 142.10

Nikkei closes up 0.07% at 13,615.19

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 11:02 PM PDT

+9.63
high 13,754.96
low 13,527.81
USDJPY 96.63

Nikkei back into positive territory on the day

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 10:42 PM PDT

13,611.27 up from lows of 13,527.81
+ 6.14
+0.05%
USDJPY up to 96.65

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

2013-08-08T17:04:00.001+08:00

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

EURGBP orders 8 August
EURJPY orders 8 August
ECB lowers growth forecast for 2013 to -0.6% from -0.4%
Technical levels 8 August
AUDUSD orders 8 August
GBPUSD orders 8 August
USDJPY orders 8 August
BOJ’s Kuroda:Will take appropriate action if tail risk threatens BOJ price target
BOE’s Carney: Doesn’t want to make “Japan style” mistakes on UK recovery
EURUSD pops higher again
European equity markets open slightly firmer
Shanghai Comp Index closes down 0.09% at 2044.90
EURUSD orders 8 August
Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.4%
German trade balance july: EUR +15.7 bln vs 14.9 bln exp
Nikkei closes down 1.59% at 13,605.66
Japan current account june: unadj JPY + 336.3 bln vs 393 bln exp
Nikkei off its lows into the close
EURUSD pops 1.3350 barrier
Swiss unemployment july: unadj 3.0% vs 2.9% exp

EURGBP orders 8 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:58 AM PDT

Currently 0.8608

Sellers 0.8625 0.8630 0.8645 0.8675 0.8700 0.8730 0.8750

Buyers 0.8595 0.8580 0.8565 0.8540 0.8520 0.8500 0.8485

EURJPY orders 8 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:53 AM PDT

Currently 129.56

Sellers 128.75 129.00 129.25 129.50 129.75 130.00 130.25

Buyers 128.00 127.90 127.50 127.20 127.00

ECB lowers growth forecast for 2013 to -0.6% from -0.4%

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:26 AM PDT

Lowers 2014 to 0.9% from 1.0%
2013 inflation at 1.5% vs 1.7% previously
2014 inflation at 1.5% vs 1.6%
Economic stabilisation tentatively seen in data
Monetary, credit dynamics remain subdued
Sees slow economic recovery in 2014
Expects interest rates to remain at present or lower levels

The forecasts keep coming down in the euro area. The last GDP read was -1.0% y/y.

Technical levels 8 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:23 AM PDT

Good morning

Quite a bit of re-writing on the cable levels and my sterling charts are all blown out wide. Pain in the bum is what it is.

AUDUSD orders 8 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:21 AM PDT

Currently 0.9057

Sellers 0.9090 0.9100 0.9115 0.9125 0.9150 0.9160 ( stop loss buying if breached) 0.9190 0.9200

Buyers 0.9020 0.9000 0.8975 0.8950 0.8920 0.8900 0.8880

GBPUSD orders 8 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:17 AM PDT

Currently 1.5493

Sellers 1.5520 1.5530 1.5540 1.5550 1.5580 1.5595 1.5605 1.5620 1.5650

Buyers 1.5485 1.5455 1.5435 1.5425 1.5410 1.5400 1.5370 1.5350

USDJPY orders 8 August

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 01:08 AM PDT

Currently 96.28

Sellers 96.50 96.65 96.75 96.90 97.00 97.20 97.50 97.75 98.00

Buyers 96.15 96.00 (possible barrier option ) 95.80 95.65 95.50 95.00 ( barrier related)

BOJ’s Kuroda:Will take appropriate action if tail risk threatens BOJ price target

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 12:34 AM PDT

Presser detail now being released after usual embargo

premature to discuss exit strategy for Japan
vital for govt to achieve fiscal consolidation
BOJ forecasts include effects of planned sales tax hike
Japan can recover even if exports don’t rise sharply
sees risks linked to overseas economy falling slightly
US economy is strong and there are signs of improvement in Europe
core CPI +0.4% in line with BOJ forecast
possible to raise sales tax and still escape deflation
even after sales tax hike Japan can expand sbove its potential growth rate
important in next fiscal year to reduce budget deficit
Chinese growth slowing but will stablize due to domestic demand
BOJ board members wanted to see more hard data showing improvement in Capex

The usual from Kuroda but USDJPY higher at 96.40

BOE’s Carney: Doesn’t want to make “Japan style” mistakes on UK recovery

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 12:28 AM PDT

Speaking on BBC radio’s Today show

UK in early stages of recovery from very weak position
2% inflation remains primary target
not binding successors to current decisions
unlikely MPC will change views outside “knockouts”
early stages of recovery does not appear credit driven
finds it striking that no women on MPC ( a back foot defence against his original stance not wanting women on uk bank notes which caused great protest )

GBP lower at 1.5490 fr0m 1.5519.

I stand by my view that yesterday changed little. And yes I’m now short at 1.5490 and 1.5512

Let’s see what happens in the clear light of day

EURUSD pops higher again

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 12:12 AM PDT

1.3369 from 1.3340

Not sure of reason why so far

Other euro pairs being dragged up too

Maybe EURJPY led but EURGBP also higher with cable trailing

On the case

European equity markets open slightly firmer

Posted: 08 Aug 2013 12:06 AM PDT