Daily GJ Technical Analysis

mission 140 completed

2009-11-27T10:24:00.004+08:00

The beast dropped 400 pips within 30 minutes this morning and hit my TP as mentioned in my earlier post. Enough trading this week.....

Below is the daily chart as of 10.20 am Malaysia.

testing the daily lower trendline

2009-11-26T17:13:00.003+08:00

The beast is now approaching the daily lower trendline; a minor retracement could occur due to profit taking activities. I have closed some positions and will ride the profit with the remaining lots.

Below is the daily chart as of 5.09 pm Malaysia.

highway 140 next???

2009-11-24T18:04:00.002+08:00

The beast is now testing the last support at 146.30 area. Should this support is penetrated, the next target 140.xx should be hit in next couple days.

I have already covered my positions and now is riding the profit.

Below is the H4 chart as of 6 pm Malaysia.

at last, the beast waken up....

2009-11-19T10:49:00.002+08:00

After consolidating and hibernating within a tight range, the beast seems to move again. Price has closed below the H4 lower trendline.

However, the bears need to pull the price below 148.30 to gain proper control.

Below is the H4 chart as of 10.30 am Malaysia today.

break or hold???

2009-11-12T06:41:00.006+08:00

Last two weeks have been a nightmare for a swing trader like me...

Price kept ranging up and down like a teeter board. Being a die-hard bear, I kept looking for sell positions but was not able to make a big gain...

Now the price is testing the H4 lower trendline. Let see whether the price would break it or bounce from it....

Below is the H4 chart as of 6.40 am Malaysia today.

UPDATE (4 pm Malaysia)

The price has closed below the lower trendline on the hourly chart. Should the bears keep persisting, 147.0 will be my first profit taking target.

complex head & shoulders on the weekly chart???

2009-11-01T09:57:00.000+08:00

A possible complex head and shoulders pattern might be developing on the weekly chart. An aggressive trader, believing that a head and shoulders top has been in formation, will begin building short positions with stop loss placed above the previous swing high of 153.3x and the 1st profit taking objective at 139.00.

Meanwhile, a conservative trader will wait for neckline at 139.00 to be broken before jumping on the bandwagon.

Extracted from Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets (John J. Murphy)

Weekly chart as of market closing

it is a war zone out there!!!!!!

2009-10-31T05:56:00.009+08:00

The beast is now getting difficult to be traded as it is entrapped within the converging trendlines. Neither bulls nor bears could claim control on the beast right now...

Having said that, I am still bearish biased as the price is making a lower high on the daily chart and most likely will go down to test red lower trendline.

Below is the daily chart as of market closing.

retracement completed???

2009-10-24T06:04:00.007+08:00

Engulfing bearish candle on the daily chart shows that the price was rejected by the fib 50% level of the previous downwards move might signify that the bull rally might have been completed.

The price is now rests at the important psychological round number 150.00.

Daily chart as of market closing:

will the daily resistance holds???

2009-10-15T20:03:00.004+08:00

The bulls went amok and the beast shot up 412 pips today. I kept aside during the crazy rally and waited for the bulls to be exhausted.

Looking onto the daily chart, the price is now bouncing off the the daily resistance and a shooting star candlestick has been formed on the hourly chart. Should the first hour of New York session drags the price lower, this might means the bull rally have reached it's temporary top; at least for the time being...

Below is the daily and hourly chart at the beginning of New York session (8 pm Malaysia).

confirmed shooting star???

2009-10-14T13:06:00.002+08:00

Once again, the price was rejected by the declining immediate trendline on the H4 chart. A confirmed shooting star formation indicates that the bears are still persistent.

Let us see whether the price could break yesterday's low or not. Below is the H4 chart as of 1 pm Malaysia.

double bottom or descending triangle???

2009-10-13T08:01:00.006+08:00

The bull camp has been yelling "double bottom!!!" since a couple days ago; however, the failure of the price to make a new high seems to develop a variance of descending triangle which is usually an indication of trend continuation.

At best; as long as the price remains within the two immediate trendlines, neither the bulls nor the bears could claim victory....

One of the important trading rules says "Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise." Hence, I went short at the price rejection by the upper trendline and have already covered my position. Below is the H4 chart as of 8 pm Malaysia.

No trading today...

2009-10-12T04:13:00.003+08:00

Banks are on holiday in both Japan dan USA. Trading volume is expected to be low and price actions could be erratic. I am going to stay out whole day today....

bearish pennant is still intact...

2009-10-09T17:02:00.004+08:00

Price was rejected by the confluence of the significant round number (143.00) and the top trendline of the bearish pennant. Now a bearish tweezer top formation has developed on the H4 chart and the beast should now go down to re-test the bottom trendline of the pennant.

Only time will time whether the anticipated drop to 136.xx and then 130.xx will materialised or not. Until then, trade wisely, guys......

Below is the H4 chart as 5 pm Malaysia.

retracement due???

2009-10-08T09:35:00.003+08:00

A bullish hammer on the daily chart indicates that a retracement might be due; however since the overall trend is still downwards, I will stay out for the time being.

There is a possibility that the price might want to test the two upper trendlines as shown on the chart below. I will watch if the price bounces off the trendlines before going short again...

Happy trading.

calm before the storm???

2009-10-07T05:05:00.004+08:00

The inverted cup and handle that I mentioned on my previous post played out nicely as expected. The price is now stalled slightly above the lower trendline and moving within a very tight range - a sign that a big move is imminent.

Below is the hourly chart as of New York closing (5 am Malaysia)

Meanwhile, a bearish pennant is developing on the daily chart (see below). The chart is whispering loudly on the next direction. To know which direction that the beast will take, learn more here and here.

inverted cup & handle???

2009-10-06T10:59:00.005+08:00

An inverted cup and handle pattern might be in play on the hourly chart; an indication that the beast should continue southwards.

Broken support at the lower trendline should complete the pattern and confirms the sell entry. Minimum profit taking target can be determined by measuring the height of the handle. Below is the hourly chart as of 11 am Malaysia.

UPDATE: The beast is now testing the lower support. Should the beast keep persisting, the price might dive to 136.xx soon. Below is the hourly chart as of 9.40 Malaysia.

dull monday...

2009-10-05T21:33:00.003+08:00

After the crazy NFP's price action last Friday, today's price movement is a dull affair. No trade today as I was waiting all day for the price to break out of the no man's land.

Until a breakout occurs, the price will be in consolidation mode within the two yellow trendlines. Below is the H4 chart as of 9.30 pm Malaysia.

go bears go

2009-10-02T08:15:00.007+08:00

The bears are now in charge of the market. I have been selling on rallies even though the past fews days' price actions were quite annoying.

Now I will ride the profit from the half position from the shooting star set up that I mentioned here.

Simple rules in forex trading - in a bear market, just sell the rallies... in a bull market, buy the dips.

Below is the hourly chart as of 8.10 am Malaysia. Expecting a slight bounce at 142.00 before the the beast continues downwards journey....

bear flag???

2009-10-01T05:03:00.006+08:00

A bear flag formation has been completed on the H4 chart. The pole height indicates a possibility that the beast might begin it's southwards journey to 133.xx region..... scary, isn't it???

Below is the H4 chart at New York closing today (5 am Malaysia).

shooting star??

2009-09-30T08:51:00.005+08:00

A shooting star candlestick has formed on the hourly chart. I went short early based on the 15 min chart price action.

A stop is placed slightly above the swing high.... in case, I am wrong. Will trail the stop once the post is in green.

Below is the hourly chart as of 9 am Malaysia.

UPDATE: The beast keeps ranging with neither bulls nor bears are really in control. However, the bears camp has the slight advantage now as the bearish flag has been broken...

I managed to take partial profits and will break even should the stop-loss is hit on the remaining lot. Below is the hourly chart at 3 am Malaysia (17 hours later!!!!)

southwards again??

2009-09-29T15:07:00.005+08:00

Since the trend is down, I stayed out during the 300 pip upwards move and patiently wait for the bulls exhaustion.

I went short when the price broke the ascending wedge slightly before London opening; and now already in green.....

Below is the hourly chart at 3 pm Malaysia.

UPDATE: Price managed to drop about 90 pips before good CBI Realized Sales data at 5.30 pm pushed the beast up...

143.00 on the way???

2009-09-25T05:06:00.010+08:00

The beast has now closed slightly below the previous support and made a new low. A slight retracement upwards is due at lower TFs; however, the market sentiment is now favors the bears' camp and the pair should touch 143.00 soon.

I have already covered my profit and will accept whatever the market gives..... Below is the daily chart at the New York closing with some insight on the future moves (which might be wrong... LOL)

UPDATE: The market closed at 142.96. A new low was made at 142.73....

will the support be broken??

2009-09-24T20:13:00.002+08:00

The double top pattern that was mentioned on my previous post is now developing nicely. As of the beginning of New York session today, the beast has already penetrated the previous support at 146.74.

The price still need to CLOSE below the support significantly before the bears could claim full control. Remember.... a pattern is NOT a pattern until it is completed.

Below is the daily chart as of 8 pm Malaysia today.

possible double top???

2009-09-18T23:07:00.008+08:00

A possible double top pattern is developing on the daily chart. This pattern should be validated if the support at 149.7x is broken significantly.

Even though a slight pullback is possible, I am anticipating that the beast will dive to 136.xx area within a couple weeks.

Let's see how the beast play it out.....

traveling....

2009-07-29T05:02:00.006+08:00

Some personal commitments tied me up from updating this blog during the past couple weeks. I had also switched to long term trading as I am not able to stay in front of computer as before. Furthermore, this evening I have to travel for more than a month and might not be able to look to the screen for days.....

However, a bearish candle should formed on the monthly chart which might indicate that the bullish rally from the start of the year is merely a correction; and the beast should resume the southwards journey.

Hopefully I will be back in October 2009. Till then, take care and trade wisely....