Daily Stock Trading Weblog

1/24/05

2005-01-24T17:08:00.000-08:00

1/24/05
the market is drifting lower everyday...
Many stocks are cheap compared to a month ago... and you should selectively pick the one to enter...
low-mid caps stocks are probably the way to go...
although most of the time, the larger cap stocks should go first...
as you can see the break down of expensive stocks like SNDA, JOBS are huge and fast.... they are probably not going to see those highs anytime soon...but we still like some of the smaller one
we still own LONG ECST AIRN AIRT NINE BWNG CYD
other stocks i would buy at this level (WITH STOP)
JDSU NT TASR RIMM GOOG(DEFINITELY STOP) CYBX EYET PLMO AAPL
after the earning is over, we may probably see some positive movement from the market.... stay tuned.

1/24/05

2005-01-24T16:59:00.000-08:00

Trade Alert

2005-01-20T09:34:00.000-08:00

We covered our GOOG share at 193.5 this morning...(gain of $10/share in 2 day)
Covering SIRI here at 5.6 (short originally at 6.5 and 9)
Bought NT at 3.1
current holding:
BWNG NINE ECST LONG AIRT
we added CYD AIRN yesterday
we added NT today

Raj, SYMC is going to spend some time here...if you don't want to tie up your money here... wait til a break out of 26 to buy... but long term it should be fine...
CREAF is not doing so good today....

Trade Alert

2005-01-19T09:38:00.000-08:00

We entered our short position on GOOG yesterday around 204. See if this reversal will continue.
Alert on CYD: a bounce from 9.7 looks quite good... we are buying it here at 10.3
Alert on AIRN: falling back on the last support area... we are in at 4.25...

Stocks to watch!

2005-01-18T17:00:00.000-08:00

After the bell, YHOO MOT JNPR CHKP all delivered pretty good reports...though the afterhour reactions for these stocks are quite different, the internet sector may get a minor boost tomorrow...
GOOG: watch this carefully as GOOG is breaking its high... we think it is pricey, but who knows if YHOO's result will push GOOG higher tomorrow...GOOG's float is getting larger and larger, so becareful with the selling pressure to mount...
JOBS: disaster today... watch to see if 25 can hold... expect it to see 20 until the dust settle! this is another lesson to learn when you long or short high valuation company... before the drop, the company is really expensive, but momentum is going forward, so the momentum crowd leads... i believe SNDA is expensive as well... but it really depends how long the company can substain its growth rate...TASR is another example .... SIRI is the same, and the drop should soon happen...but you have to look at example like TZOO, sometimes it may take a long time for the market to adjust itself....!!!
EYET: i would pay attention to EYET right now..after a bit of correction, it may worth to look at this again! if it can stay above 40, its a good sign!
the market acts quite boring lately, stay both at long and short to hedge yourself...
at this point, i would consider the following for long:
XMSR NINE LONG ECST OSIP PLMO AIRT AAPL CYD FNSR INSP EYET DITC TERN (CREAF worth to watch right now) SYMC
short:
GOOG SIRI MSTR SNDA NVDA
NOTICE: i don't mean its a good time to long or short on these stocks right now, getting in at the right timing is very critical...watch these carefully!

Monday 1/17

2005-01-17T16:54:00.000-08:00

several names to watch next week, watch the big internet names like YHOO EBAY, both crossed the 50MA. The result should be good, but we will see if profit taking will continue!
NGPS: we have been watching this, don't catch a falling knife, watch the MA, and around 16 area...
AIRT: let's wait and see if this area will hold.. its temporarily oversold, and we need to see a break of 15 for another up trend though!
MSTR: short candidate..temp. oversold, on the upside, it is right where the last gap up area...if it holds 58 area, it may bounce up..but resistance at 60-62
FNSR: volume increased and now at 1.6... just crossed the 200ma...watch and see if this support will hold...
JOBS: becareful at this level... a break below this level may test level around 35...
SNDA: unless it breaks above 40 level...it may continue its downtrend from here...35 is an improtant level here.... expect another side trade around 28-34 level if it breaks down from here...
XMSR: any bounce may become a short opportunity.....
continue to look at RIMM AAPL GOOG AVNX BKHM SIRI NINE
we are in the earning season... after a quick correction at the beginning of the month, are we going to see some bounce? we are right at the 20MA... and temp. oversold ...we need a break above 2111.... let's see what happen....
please let me know if you are looking at any stocks!

Update

2005-01-14T15:04:00.000-08:00

Will come back and update on some stocks this weekend...
Monday is holiday...hope everybody has a nice holiday weekend!

I would like to invite some of you to post/write comments on the main body...please email me with your info... there are many visitors here, and i encourage you to let us know your trading ideas, comments....most importantly, help us to promote our weblog to your friends!
thanks!

Briefing.com

2005-01-14T14:59:00.000-08:00

Recap from Briefing.com

EPIX -36%, ANTP -35%, DNDN -33%, INTX -27%, OLED -26%, AMD -24%, CREE -24%, MPWR -24%, RJET -22%, HDTV -21%, NGPS -21%, SYPR -20%, HRT -20%, GOAM -19%, NWK -17%, ZICA -17%, ISTA -17%, LDIS -16%, GMTN -16%, MGAM -16%, ABMD -16%, ANGO -16%, CRM -15%, TASR -13%

VRST +49%, LCBM +41%, APPX +37%, NEOF +34%, SLNK +33%, HLIT +31%, FARM +28%, AEPI +27%, CLHB +26%, LPL +26%, WLS +25%, RATE +24%, TGA +23%, FOXH +23%, IMAX +23%, LMLP +23%, GMXR +21%

Companies reporting earnings the week of Jan 18th-21st include: Tuesday, Jan 18th: CRAI, FAST, PCP, STT, ABT, BAC, FITB, NCC, RF, SCH, ACO, FRX, MMM, AMTD, ASO, FCX, PH, USB, WFC, FLWS, JCI, HTLD, AMD, LLTC, YHOO, DRL, JNPR, RMBS, CHKP, IBM, FSL, MOT, PLT, SOV, STX, TSS, WSTL, KMI, KMP, RYL, TER, VIRL... Wednesday, Jan 19th: ASML, GM, HIB, LUV, RDC, WB, ETH, EXAR, JEF, MEL, SAFC, APH, BK, CVG, JPM, LU, NTRS, NWAC, PFE, PMTC, CIT, FHN, XJT, SLM, KNX, AMR, RJF, SYMC, QLGC, JKHY, ACXM, COF, DSS, EBAY, EXTR, MACR, PLNR, RDN, SNV, TK, WM, HUMC, IIVI, FFIV, SWKS, DOX, ISSC, QCOM... Thursday, Jan 20th: ISCA, HDI, IONA, MRCY, UNH, DPH, CAL, CMA, F, CBSS, AD, LRCX, WERN, CKFR, ASPT, ELY, MRX, STEL, PVN, AACE, ACS, CAMD, CYT, ELX, HLIT, KLAC, KRB, SFA, SYNA, XLNX, TRID, HTCH, MROI, KANA, CHTT, PLAY, VIGN, DAL, KNSY, NITE, PRXL, AFCO, BEBE, CCBL, CHIC, GDW, IEX, RESP, SIRF, SUN, T, PPG, IGT, REY, PGR, DHI, HDWR, STI, SUN, PGR... Friday, Jan 21st: GE, AOS, KEY, HBAN, WIT, PNC, UTX, AT, BGG, FPL, FO, WL, WY, ADP, CRS, LAB, ICST, AWA, CCUR.

1/13/05 HIGHLIGHT

2005-01-13T18:18:00.000-08:00

SIRI: today's volume is not impressive, although it manage to end up in positive territory. currently at 50MA, it really needs a lot of strength to break 7 to go back and test the high...otherwise, it should continue its downward slide.
NINE: need some ground works here...hope this area can hold, and it should manage to work its way up...one firm upgraded with 13 price target.
JOBS: looks like current downtrend may continue...only if it can break above 45, and hold above 46.5, then it may have a chance to move up...another scenario is to fill the gap, which it did yesterday and today...and bounce right above the 50MA...today's selling volume has decreased..look for the move and volume...
SNDA: watch and see if this area at 37.5 will hold...if it fails to bounce, it should continue to slide to low 32...
AAPL: a black candle, the key is going to be tomorrow's action...minor pullback may happen but i expect 67.5 is the most it will retreat to...if it sucessfully holds up at 70...it should continue its way up....
CREAF: a fail of break out above 16...
SONS: looks like a good follow through... any pull back to 6 is a buy...
LONG: looks like the bottom is in...but too soon to tell...hope to see some bigger volume day...
AIRT: trade back down from yesterday's high, but hope to see a base to develop here... oversold territory...
JUPM: if you still have the short... congrat...it traded down from 24 when we recommended...we closed out early...and its a 25% gain if you cover now...
FNSR: looks like 200MA is getting closer...oversold and they reported good earnings in Dec, unfortunately it came back down and now filled the gap...
also take a look at these stocks:
AVNX BKHM NTE UTSI NILE GOOG RIMM

UP DAY!

2005-01-12T17:25:00.000-08:00

I believe everybody is happy about how the overall market performed... finally we see a better, stronger closing than opening!
Individual stocks perform differently..with sell off on most china stocks....SNDA, JOBS, NINE.. see some strength on LONG!
SNDA: technically speaking, snda is going through its downtrend now...it is hitting its channel low as we outlined yesterday... it may bounce again, but watch any strength to fade with the upper channel ... next support is 35...
JOBS: touched its MA today, and bounced to stand at its previous support...looks weak at this point...play with caution!
SIRI: as expected, a bit of bounce came today...
NINE: ugly... can't really predict what's going to happen next...let's see when the reversal will happen!
BWNG: UGLY! hope a turn around again at last support at 7...
ECST: encouraging sign seen today as volume went up and a nice turn around... although not much gain was seen today..this last gap up area is important for the next move up.... AAPL news may help it tomorrow!
LONG: nice reaction today, its hard to predict the low on these IPO..if overall market starts to improve, it should be okay...
AIRT: nice volume here, hope to see a cross tomorrow above its 200MA... large short interest ...it drops like a rock from 20, hoping for a quick bounce up to 17 area..
just looking at AAPL's chart, stock gap up afterhour to 72, once it digests the gain, it will probably move higher to 90s like what other analysts had suggested...very strong numbers....

Comments and recommendations from our friends

2005-01-11T20:08:00.000-08:00

CREAF: very clearly defined channel, the MA support happen to be just under the support at 14...watch for entry if it breaks 16...

Howard, SNDA all of a sudden looks quite depressing... i looked at its 3 months chart, looks like a down channel is forming it hits 45 in Jan...now the high of the channel is 42.5...if it doesn't break this point, it is going lower, the lower channel stands at 37.5....if it breaks 42.5, things will look better and wait to clear 45....
good luck!

RECAP

2005-01-11T16:32:00.000-08:00

INTC report may save the tech sector tomorrow... let's see what will happen!
basically, our strategy works well, holding some shorts, and pick up a few bargains here and there...
if you have shorted the one that i mentioned at the beginning of the year: wgat siri mstr ostk, you would have made some good money.
some stocks broke its trendline and support and move substantially lower, including: airt cyd ecst long nvec nine
some high flyers got beaten down after a stellar rise over the last few months, including antp, tzoo, ngps, tasr
we have made some purchase today, absorbing soem ECST, LONG, AIRT... all of which looks very oversold...though AIRT is not quite
to its next support yet...again, we are going into our position in order...
as we pointed out, XMSR long, SIRI short is a good strategy to go... also, some optical stocks look like bargain again: avnx, jdsu, bkhm...
we are thinking about closing our short temp. soon... since the bounce is overdue....
let's see how the market react tomorrow...
good luck!

Selling pressure continues

2005-01-11T13:47:00.000-08:00

Just want to drop a quick note now, many high flyers like TZOO ANTP TZOO SIRI are getting hit hard today. As we have pointed out last week, beware of any sell off from AAPL, it did today...ipod sales met the expectation, but not brilliant....good product line though, especially like the new mini iMAC...check it out at www.apple.com
now, XMSR and SIRI are going the opposite way, i suspect this correction will continue. SIRI and XMSR will somehow adjust themselves to reflect the appropriate market cap...
AMD is down big today, we expected AMD to come back down to 20 while it was at 24 last month...this drop certainly caught us by surprise!
We entered NVEC yesterday, stock is benefited from one newsletter today...notice the high short interest ratio on this stock. Beware, its volatile...we will close this position pending the movement of the stock.
Another profitable one is SIRI, continue to trade down...we may close half of our position here, again, you may hedge your position with XMSR. we believe 6 may have some support here...

stock has been trading down, it is a short sellers market, the only thing that worries me here is the lack of big sell off on the big cap stocks... we have seen most mid-small cap back down to earth now... look at TASR! but pick the one that may have potential to run up again...
we will keep an eye on INTC tonight....

Short selling regulation

2005-01-10T16:32:00.000-08:00

I am sure you have heard about the new short regulation rule... here are some of the stocks that i think you should watch (concluded from nasdaq's list):
AAII ANTP APPX BKHM BOOM CAAS CMTN ECST GOAM INFY ISON MWAV NFLX NGEN NVEC TASR TAYD TZOO VERT XING
many of these stocks are down today...but are we really going to see some short covering on these names? illegal or naked short selling are usually done by those big accounts...not you and me...cause brokerage won't let you short if they have no shares to borrow... now they are forced to cover these naked shorts...its common sense that it should create a flood of short covering wave...not quite... i doubt we will see big actions here but fundamentally it may help many of the stocks, even the stocks not listed... less downward selling pressure, these illegal short sell create an imbalance of equity movement, so some equity (especially small float company) can be shorted pretty heavily to drive the price down...and allow them to profit on the long side again..i would anticipate more positive movement on some of the names listed... look at the short ratio of NVEC, TASR, TZOO...imagine the legal + illegal short selling= very big selling pressure that drives the price down... again, don't expect a big run, but i would expect the stock will perform much better than it usually behaves... pick the company carefully, cause some of these stocks got beaten down for reasons!
Best regards!

NINE SIRI ECST LONG JOBS AIRT SNDA NGPS RATE GOOG

2005-01-10T16:00:00.000-08:00

Today's market is quite interesting....although we ended up positively, but the strength died down going to the end of the session. Investors are nervous about the upcoming earnings season...the support here for nasdaq is quite shaky... it can go down and test the next support at 2040-2050 area, or it will move up from here. technically it is oversold and hopefully we will see the gains sustain until the close....
our watch list is not quite pretty today...
our siri short is doing good... if you trade short term only, siri may due for a quick bounce at this support level...but if it trades down below 6.5, reenter again...midterm trend is down right now...
NINE is right at its 10 mark again.
ECST LONG JOBS are all losing ground today.. we have entered some position in ECST LONG today...JOBS currently looks weak, and since its support has broken, we will avoid it now...
AIRT: as we pointed out...once it broke its support, it continues its free falling...stock is very oversold...smalll float with huge short interest...make sure to watch this as short covering should drive this stock higher when it starts to turn... solid support at 10, you can plan your entry from here now to play the bounce...
SNDA is acting very strongly today... look for another leg up if market continues its uptrend.
I would also buy PLMO now, showing very strong strength, and poise to go up...
NGPS has broken its support, and down big again... any bounce is imminent but is very risky...no trend line to support. small float and a very volatile stock.
short candidate to consider: RATE-quite strong, but watch if it will reach 20, its resistance area...if it breaks from here, will enter just below 16...
GOOG: short again if it reaches 200? it should start its run up again if history repeats...lockup is close by, and if there is no downward pricing pressure, short will cover....but next month's lockup share is huge..the total pool will be much bigger...i would anticipate a bigger pressure starting late Jan...

RIMM GOOG SIRI SONS NINE SNDA JOBS AIRT ECST SYMC LONG SNDA WGAT NGPS ANTP NVEC

2005-01-07T16:59:00.000-08:00

RIMM: bounced off from its last turn around point in NOV... looks like a trading buy here... stock is way oversold, solid support at 70 with 200MA at 68 as a cushion..
SIRI: continue its run down..stock is approaching its 50MA and may have some support there...
GOOG: very positive bounce during this trading day, watch out for another run before the lockup...
SONS: can't get in cause it didn't hit our target, but its up 10% today...strong!
zapz: may be another opportunity for a quick trade...this stock is driven by news...
NINE, SNDA, JOBS: nothing new here, still right around the support...looking for its way, one way or the other!
AIRT: looks oversold, but its trendline act as an resistance now.. a quick trade could be made to 17...downside support at 15, then around 12...
ECST: right on its last gap up level... short term oversold, see if the small float will help propel the stock up...
SYMC: stock should have plenty of support here... short term it would be volatile... if you don't want your money to tie up, wait til it breaks 25... but its a long term buy here...
SNDK: looks a bounce from 22.5 signals a start of another run...watch for plenty of resistance around 25-27 area... i think it will stay around that area before the earning...
LONG: strong support at 15...expect a quick turn around from here depending on the market...very oversold.
WGAT: we are closing our short here, hit our target at 4...short at 6.4 when we featured it couple days ago... this may continue to go down to 3 as CES is wrapping up... but as always, we take profit when we think it hits our target.
NGPS: continue to monitor its movement, check out another similar stock with low float: ANTP.... high violatility... NGPS is approaching it 50MA...
NVEC: this speculative play has been beaten down...with high short interest (86%), i won't be suprised to see a quick short covering soon... stock is at its turn around support zone now... two small insider transactions just traded in Jan...
next week we will see more earning news... and no doubt it is going to determine the trend of the overall market...
our strategy at this support/resistance is to get in some stocks that are right at support level, i.e. NINE, LONG, SYMC, SNDK... try to avoid ones that may break down substantially...but those may be the one that bounce first and hard, so either you get in and set stop loss, or get in when the market turns up... i.e. SNDA, JOBS, ECST, NGPS, ANTP, GOOG, RIMM. continue to keep shorts in mind...we are still holding core short SIRI, because of the valuation...you may hedge yourself by buying XMSR...3 times more subscriber, but 2/3 of SIRI's market cap...again. We like the satellite radio/audio business, but currently, the market is ahead of itself... also other short candidate: GOOG (either way..depending on the trend, expensive stocks but high short interest), OSTK, MSTR, RATE (recent run up to its resistance, it may continue its run, so watch for weakness).
For those of you trying to find long term buy, take a look at JDSU, AGR, of course, our long term play: BWNG.

ECST LONG SNDA JOBS CYD NINE ZAPZ SYMC RIMM GOOG SONS JMDT UTSI

2005-01-06T17:05:00.000-08:00

another boring day today on the market, some stocks are temporarily in oversold position. Technically, it is due for a bounce, but the enthusiasm that we saw before the holiday seems to fade quite a bit. The overall market has tried to bounce from its support, after yesterday and today's testing on support, tomorrow we should know if the next step for the market is up or down....watch the support level closely...
short term bounce play:
ECST LONG SNDA JOBS
they are all still showing signs to be the first to bounce if market improves...all right at the pivotal point...note that ECST and LONG both have very small float
CYD is slowly breaking down, watch for the solid psychological $10 level....NGPS: high risk play, today's bounce has failed, but this stock has a very small float, short covering may soon come in at this level...
NINE: very disappointing, just waiting on its support again...
zapz: this otcbb stock is an interesting one to watch... we have been watch it going back and forth between 3-4-5 for a while... they are the sole distributor of smart car here in US, i believe they have more news coming regarding that...also other fuel efficient cars news that may propel the stock higher.. i would advise to buy for quick trading only at this point...
mid term play:
SYMC: technically doesn't look good, but at 21-22, the down side is very limited. Recommend for longer term buy...
RIMM, GOOG: RIMM's support is coming again, last time it bounced from here around 74 back to 90 with some positive news...without any news, i am quite concern about RIMM's ability to move back up to 90 from here. but we will play for a bounce if it hits 72 area.. GOOG is showing some weakness, market's weakness is causing some downward pressure on this big cap, again, the pattern tells us that GOOG may stablize soon and back up when the lock up day hits...
SONS: looks for a reentry if you like VOIP...plenty of support at 5-5.2 level...
JMDT: with favorable guidance, it may start its run from here, watch for any move above 20...
UTSI: after the bell, UTSI warns, this is not the first time, but keep this stock in mind, we picked this up when they warned last time, hit 15 and climbed back up... very solid business, but i think they have problems with giving guidance...
note that earning season is coming again... beware of those high flyers like AAPL, OSTK, EBAY, AMZN, etc...

1/5/05

2005-01-05T16:28:00.000-08:00

Nasdaq closed right at the support that we pointed out yesterday... it did bounce intraday at this level, unfortunately, it cannot resist the selling pressure...
let's take a quick look on our list:
short term play:
PLMO-at support now,
zeus-pay attention to 25, if it holds, it should have another leg up,
ECST: just inch above last gap up in Nov, large short interest, it will be interesting to see, repeat of OSTK's run?
JOBS, SNDA: looks like current sell off have put these stocks back to its initial support...if they don't break down from this level, for sure it will bounce big with the market...
SNPS: right on its trend line and inch above its large support area...
FNSR: right above its large break away gap area, bounce from here, or a break to below...
LONG: oversold, 15 is a better support, but this minor support may serve as a base for a bounce
Midterm:
AVNX, BKHM
Long term:
SYMC-after hour downgrade may put some pressure on the stock, if it breaks hard from here, watch out the next level at 22.5. stock is oversold and we doubt it will create too much selling...
watch list:
WGAT: if you shorted this stock, you have made pretty profit in 2 days... watch for any rebound from here...but i expect this stock to come back down to 3-4 level after the CES.
JUPM: continue to drop, if you have this on your short list, also a 20% profit in a week...
AIRN, AIRT, CYD: still watching to get in...
XMSR, SIRI: both making news, but XMSR slowly losing its momentum, while siri continues to stand out... now there is a 2.5 billion gap in their market gap....
i like XMSR a lot here, but even with 5.5m as projected for next year, the business is still not profitable yet, and stock is still expensive... it may take up to 2-3 years for them to reach 10M customers, and at that point, this stock valuation will make more sense... siri should be standing at 5 if there is no hype or "momentum" ....
the overall market is very weak, but there are bright areas... many stocks are coming down hard during the last few days and are sitting at their support level...
watch for those momentum stocks to move again.

NINE GOOG JOBS WGAT SNDA PLMO SYMC CYD AIRT TONS ZEUS LONG AVNX MSTR ECST

2005-01-04T17:32:00.000-08:00

very interesting day today, two big down day in a row...are you going to see some lights?
watch for the MA support at 2092 level... we may see some carry over from today, but i expect a bounce back after hitting this support tomorrow...
NINE: bounced back from its low at 10 today, closed down 22 cents...not bad considering the intraday drop, continue to watch this..
GOOG: very weak today, short is playing for the next lockup, bulls are playing with another bounce from its large pivotal point...and also the larger and larger short interest position...
JOBS: looks like the support will hold... this looks like a short term buy for a bounce...
WGAT: some weakness during the close with the broad market, wait for the real weakness to short...
PLMO: buying for a quick bounce from here....
SYMC: back down to its trend line.. mid term buy for this stock...
CYD, AIRT: look to see if the entry target is reached...
TONS, ZEUS: interesting and low float steel stock, looks like ZEUS hasn't had its run compared to TONS... ZEUS looks more promising at this point,
some stocks for you to check:
short term bounce:
LONG, ZEUS, CHINA, BKHM, FNSR, PLMO, JOBS, SNDA, ECST
midterm play:
SYMC, NINE,
short:
MSTR(trendline broken, wait for bounce to short), WGAT,
WATCH:
AVNX (broke its trendline), ostk(touching the trendline),

2005-01-04T01:00:00.000-08:00

just to touch on some stocks briefly...market is really ugly..if you have some short, good...!
wgat: we offered cautions if you want to go short..watch for first sign of weakness before shorting it...
bwng: really weak..our long term hold has pull back almost 20% if a matter of week..let's see
NINE: surprisingly weak, after opening strong, it slumps to 10.1 level...previous support...and bounced
GOOG: can't hold the 200 mark, shorts are coming in strong today...watch for a bounce back up though! becareful if you play this either way...
SNDA: the trend is broken, but previous support may hold...see if a bounce will come up ...
JOBS: dropped quite a bit intraday to 46, looks very weak at this point. the bouncing point today is right where the trend line is, so see if JOBS will bounce from here.
CYD: looks weak here...initial support is broken, wait to see a buying opportunity will come or not...
AIRT: same here, target entry price: 15...
TONS: big move today...along with other steel group...
PLMO: we are entering PLMO at 29.5 today... touched 200MA and see if this major support will hold...

EVOL ERTS CALL SNDA BWNG NINE JUPM AIRN GOOG RIMM XMSR WGAT SIRI AIRT

2005-01-03T18:08:00.000-08:00

EVOL: close at our recommended entry price...put a stop at 4 if you want to play the move...
ERTS: dropping volume is larger, the stock may bounce from here, it is sitting on its trend line established from Dec... if it bounces, don't short...if it breaks down from here, enter short! stock is still overbought.
CALL: dropped at the opening of the trading day...the stock broke its trend line today...next support at 13, then stronger one at 11....
SNDA: the trend line is now right at 40... MACD will also cross over if it breaks from here...
BWNG: again at support level here at the trend line...
NINE: breakout coming? looks like a converging pattern is forming, and we should see a move soon!
JUPM: did you short? we did at 24, and we covered today... these are our short play, and we are happy with a $2 profit on a quick trade... initial support at its trend line at 21...stock is still overbought...
AIRN: we booked a profit at 5.4(preset sell price), a profit of $1 (20%) in a week or so...not bad...
take profit if it continue to drop tomorrow.... we continue to like its long term prespective though....
GOOG: did we say GOOG will challenge 200 and break out from its previous high...? you bet! it did it today.... look at today's chart, and you see how many people put a stop cover or stop buy at 200... a surge in volume and surge in price once it hit 200.... driving the price up above 202...
remember two more lockups are coming, Jan's lock up may not be strong enough to drive the stock price down...i would be very careful to short at this level...
RIMM: doesn't look good, RIMM broke its trend line from oct... any bounce from now would be considered as a short opportunity... i would buy for a quick trade at 75 level...volume has increased substantially....
WGAT: another opportunity to short? becareful for this breakout, i would short if it reverses...but since it closed above the previous high...i would watch it carefully.... very volatile!
XMSR looks worse than SIRI today... again, too much support for SIRI...and it is really insane ...
XMSR is right at the support on it MA....
AIRT: looks like a buy is very close to us...watch it carefully....

EVOL ERTS CALL MSTR--BWNG SIRI NINE SNDA JOBS CYD AIRN AIRT

2005-01-02T19:37:00.000-08:00

MSTR: after coming back down from its 50MA trend line at 62, it may prove that the trend will start from here... if you go short from here, put a stop just right above 62... but it looks like the next move is down...
EVOL: big volume up day and it broke its trading range....strong resistance at 5, previous 5reistance around 4 now serves as support, if you are waiting for a pull back to get in, try the 33% retracement at 4.2..it may dip a bit on monday and watch for the bounce at these period... stop near 4
ERTS: stock was rising with declining RSI and MACD... that's negative... stock is way overbought... looks like a break from here is possible...
CALL: very low volume stock callwave, this stock has doubled since Nov. after a break out at last high at 12, the stock was trading along the 10MA line, the trend is still up, but RSI is looking weak...and way overbought! if trend line at 15 is broken, it should start its downtrend soon....

we continue to look at our stock watch lists: siri, bwng, nine, jobs, snda, cyd, airn, airt, xmsr, and more...
Jan usually has an upside bias...so plan your trade, don't trade against the overall market...

2004 Gainers and Losers

2005-01-02T17:06:00.000-08:00

2004 Biggest Gainers
Stocks over $1 posting the largest percentage gains over the last year include: IOTN +2,040%, TZOO +1,056%, TRFDF +967%, CGM +723%, ANTP +646%, RIV +641%, DCAI +473%, NGPS +472%, HWG +441%, LNG +439%, GRA +431%, JUPM +428%, CNLG +412%, CFS +400%
2004 Biggest Losers
Stocks over $1 posting the largest percentage loss over the last year include: AAII -87%, NTPA -86%, GNTA -84%, BEL -83%, TRPH -83%, ITIG -82%, CHR -82%, FLYI -82%, BKHM -81%, WTSLA -79%, TWH -77%, TORC -77%, PROX -77%, LENS -76%

Our readers' pick

2005-01-02T16:47:00.000-08:00

ALT: the bounce off its 200MA looks good with great volume. I would keep a support stop at 1. Looking good for another bounce from here....
ENMD: range bound trading between 3-3.5...looks a bit overbought, but the cross over of MA is positive. resistance is at 4...support at 3, if you are looking to get in 2.4 is a stronger support...

Comments from Servant Merchant- our reader

2005-01-01T22:25:00.000-08:00

well written thought, i will start to repost some valuable comments to the main page, so nobody will miss it. If you are interested in contributing to our daily blog, please comment here, i will contact you. I look forward to have more commentators here so we will be able to learn more, and profit more from the market!

The 2005 outlook should be quite interesting. I hate to sound vague without any support, however 2005 can go either way. The only outlook I have to say is "depends".I think the overall outlook of should be positive, even though Iraq does not look too optimistic so far. These are a couple reasons I think that may boost the overall over-the-counter (OTC) and derivative markets.1. Interest rate hike - that never sounded too good, but there are a lot of players in cash position. A rate hike might boost the confidence of "well-informed" investors.2. Though a lot of people do not like our President, but there are a few fiscal and monetary policies implemented during his first term, and we should see the benefits of those policies in our economy. Again, a lot of people might be saying, "those policies only benefit the riches." I think not, the economy is a sophisticated machine, and those policies take time to be effective. Therefore, we should see those policies working more vividly.3. The US Dollar has been going weak against other currencies, Euro in specific. And that will help the US industries in international trading. The EU has been yapping about how the Fed is letting the Dollar go weak, and I think that will be a good sign to counter the trading power of other countries, China to be specific, and the US firms will benefit on that.4. There has been pressure from the G8/G9, however you want to call them, on China's foreign exchange (FX) policies. China has been on a "locked in" FX rate, and that is creating some problems within the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy is facing problems of inflation because the economy has been white hot while the rest of the world soars, plus the Chinese economy is highly inefficient (meaning a lot of information is not public, and investors are not informed). So China will have to go into a floating FX rate to be a more efficient economy. If you were to play in NBA, you gotta follow the NBA rules; you can't have a 35-second high school regulation shot-clock in the pro.But these following things might cast a shadow on 2005's markets:1. Iraq goes completely wrong, US pulls out cuz we are losing too many boys out there, a repeat of Vietnam or Korea.2. Another corporate scandal, a repeat of WorldCom or Enron. We cannot afford another exploit in our own economy system.3. For strangest reasons, the airline industry starts a chaotic consolidation; mergers that do not create positive synergies. As we saw K-mart and Sears, that merger went extremely well, the investors believes that the merger created tremendous synergy. So were Nextel & Sprint PCS and AT&T Wireless and Cingular.4. Other unsystemmatic risks that arise, which they are not in anyone's power to prevent. i.e. a tsunami hits the east coast of US, or other unforecasted economic turbulances.I have a very positive opinion about 2005. If anyone wishes to discuss more with me, please feel free to contact me through the e-mail link on my profile through my personal blog, http://servantmerchant.blogspot.com/ I refuse to write out my e-mail address out right because it will get spammed like there is no tomorrow. I apologize for the inconveniences. Best of luck to all investors, let's be wise and well-informed.
At 10:00 PM, stockrabbit said...
well written post! thanks! yes, 2005 is going to be exciting...i agree with most of the points you raised:interest rate: i think the increasing interest rate environment is going to affect the market a bit...and that's why i think the market is going to be modestly higher in 2005. The only thing that i worry is when housing bubble starts to burst, and it is going to affect the spending pattern, indirectly affecting the economy...whether or not the housing market will start to go down, still a big ????Many stocks are quite overvalued at this level...picking stocks at this level require great skills... momentum trading is good but the key is to watch the overall market trend...Good luck!
At 12:58 AM, Servant Merchant said...
Nice thoughts about the housing market. I think the bottomline on that issue is you will not have mortage rates at 4% or 5%. I think that is not the major issue here. The historical average on the market return is about 7% to 8%, and even if uncle Joe gets a mortage rate of 6.5% today, he is still making good money on his investment strategy.I think a lot of the traders on banking on news, reports, or rumors. If God grants me a wish today on market timing or security selection, I will pick timing with a heartbeat. However, that will never come true. So most of us rely on security selection, and to gain that edge on one's investment compared to the overall rate of return is to be diligent. I cannot emphasize more on studying the industry. Know the industry, then you learn how to get the timing right.Cash position is what a lot of people are taking. The last trading day took a tiny dip, but I think it's just more people moving into cash position. The bond price went up a little, too. So we see two diverse ways of wealth management, literally today. One group backed out of the equity market, the other group went into the fixed-income market, and there is a third group that did both transactions today. I think people are trying to get the timing right, people are watching and waiting.I am curious to see Warren Buffet's stock pick for 2005 because he still has majority of his wealth in cash position. The big players are watching, they are being careful; so should we, because if we were that good, they would be following us, and our names will be on Wall Street Journal front-page everyday. In reality, that's not the case. So I conclude my corny "PIE" theory here:Patience - money doesn't grow on trees, and even if it does, it takes time. Investment takes time to return.Investigate - learn the industries before you enterExploit - be diligent, investment opportunies will arise if you have done the previous two steps.