dailymarketadvice

Weekly review 10/11/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 11 Oct 2010 08:51:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

We will start our review with a market overview.

Last week, we saw a slight downward trend in the majority of markets but, this week, we’ve seen a slight upward trend within this market which is quite SPECIAL, as we have commented over the last few weeks. Here is current data to support our claim:

The least number of Open Interest in the Ibex in the last few years.
The lowest monthly volume for September since 1999.
The largest gain in September for the SP since 1939
Volumes way below the monthly averages of the last several months which were very poor in all markets.
The Fed purchasing in the market this past Tuesday and Wednesday.
The HFS in the US literally destroying values with movements more typical of OTC.

With these indicators in mind, take a look at the following chart of the last 20 sessions for the Dax to see how the market is now.

Lacking tendency
Strong intraday movements

FUTURES & STOCKS: Dax

Now we will review the Dax technique which we trade via our Trading Room at 2am EST (8am GMT +1). For the year, we have made 23 positive trades versus 5 negative ones for a success rate of 82.15%. The last 11 operations have been positive for a gain of 231 points (5,775 € per contract).

This past week, our technique indicated only one trade from which we gained 125 Euros per contract. It was a shame we didn’t trade on Thursday and Friday as well, even though the gap were small, as our technique would have worked.

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again.

We hope the market begins to move a bit more with expirations in October and US business financial reports.

FOREX

These were our operations this past week:

We had 3 positive operations versus 4 negative ones for a loss of -28 Pips. There isn’t much new about the market. We continue with intra day movements which are quite flat. Now we’ll summarize what was most interesting for the week.

Weekly review 10/04/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 08:00:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

The following is our review of the past week.

FUTURES & STOCKS: Dax

Last Thursday, our trading for September came to a close. For the month, we made only 10 Dax futures trades and all 10 were positive for a gain of 134.5 Dax puntos or 3,362.50 € per contract. In August, a month we normally don’t operate a lot, we executed 17 operations.

Our results for Dax trading in this third quarter of 2010 were 22 positive operations versus 5 negative ones for a gain of 231 points which is the equivalent of 5,775 € per contract.

Here are all our operations:

MiniSP

For the MiniSP futures, the good news is that we closed the quarter with 79 positive operations versus 6 negative ones for a gain of 139.25 points or $6,962.50. The bad news is that we haven’t traded since August 27th.

As we have mentioned in other review, it’s not as if we don’t want to operate. We don’t trade because the market conditions don’t allow us to do so. Take a look at the last several sessions. There was only movement when macroeconomic reports were made and then the market would return to being flat and the Sp returned over and over again to the 1140 level.

They way the market is right now, we believe trading the Sp would be like throwing away our money. Therefore, until the market changes, we won’t operate.

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again.

FOREX

This past week, we only executed the following two operations.

As we have commented, over the last several sessions, our pairs are at levels which make it difficult to operate our techniques. The range is very narrow which doesn’t permit us to place our usual targets. Take a look at our trade of the Eur/Jpy from the 27th. We hit the stop by only 5 pips, the price then remained static for almost 24 hours in a +25/-25 range and, 24 hours later, the pair would have hit our target of +50.
As we have stated before, we can’t force ourselves to continue taking risks while this sort of this continues to occur. The advantage our techniques is that one doesn’t have to spend the day in front of their monitor. But, while the markets lack strength and, especially, tendency during the opening of the European and US markets, we won’t be able to find good opportunities for this trading style.

As we mentioned last week, we are currently executing a technique which is similar to our FX techniques but applied to the DAX futures and with resounding success. This technique is simple to follow as you only have to enter the Trading Room 5 minutes before the European opening at 1:55am EST and, if there is a gap, we will trade either long or short and you will see our entry price, target and stop which normally don’t change throughout the rest of the session. We are trying to replicate these trades for FOREX, the only problem being that, as you might expect, there are not gaps every day. The up-side is that the success rate when there is a gap is very, very good (this month, we were 10 for 10 in Dax trade for a profit of +3,362.5 euros per contract). Therefore, if Forex traders are not comfortable trading futures, we will try to replicate this technique for FOREX as all markets are more or less correlated, depending on the cycle. Before we launch this new technique, we will advise you by email with the trade’s characteristics.

Have a great weekend!

Weekly review 9/26/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 08:11:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

We are going to start by reviewing the Dax futures technique that we trade at 2am EST. As you can below, we have made 21 positive trades versus 5 negative ones with an 80.76% success rate and with 9 straight positive operations.

This week, our technique gave us a signal each and every day, which had not happened in quite some time, and we gained 59.5 points or 1,487.50€ per contract. Our results could have been much better it we hadn’t been within only 0.5 points of the 30 point target on Friday only to later hit the stop profit for a 5 point gain. Had we hit the target for that trade, we would have gained 84.5 points or 2,112.50 € per contract for the week.

As we mentioned previously, on Friday Dax technique gave us a short trade at the opening at 6182 with a target at 6152 and, as we can see below, the price made it to 6152.5, 0.5 points from the target and then rebounded to the stop profit we had placed for +5 points. It was a shame but these things happen

As you can see, maybe we shouldn’t have adjusted the target so much but the price came right up to it.

In the following chart, you can see how the technique would have fared since March, 2009. We would be close to 4 thousand points per contract which would be incredible.

MiniSP

So, you ask, how the week was for the Sp? We had the same story as always: noise, noise and more noise.

They way the market is right now, we believe trading the Sp would be like throwing away our money. Therefore, until the market changes, we won’t operate.

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again.

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

We had 2 positive operations versus 4 negative ones for a loss of -57 pips. This was a modest loss given the number of problems we are running into.

Have a great weekend!

180.5 points or 4,512.5 in the Dax future

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 07:27:00 +0000

Good morning,

This morning we gained another points in Dax futures which means that, in the past two months, we have made 1780.5 points, or 4,512.50€ , with 19 positive and 5 negative trades.

Keep in mind that we are trading in a difficult market that is both quite stagnant and with low volumes. This forces us to trade slowly and cut short targets on many occasions. What is important is to keep making gains; in this case, 4,512.50€ in two months!

176.5 points or 4,412.5 in the Dax future

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:05:00 +0000

Good morning,

This morning we gained another points in Dax futures which means that, in the past two months, we have made 176.5 points, or 4,412.50€ (approx. $5,736), with 18 positive and 5 negative trades.

Weekly review 9/19/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 08:51:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks and specifically with the Dax Futures

FUTURES & STOCKS

Dax

Here is how the Dax technique has fared for us. This week, we executed two operations and made 13 points. To date, we have gained 160.5 points or 4,012.50 euros ($5,216.25) per Dax contract.

MiniSP

And so what happened with the Sp this past week? Take a look at the following chart from Monday to Thursday. There was a strong upward gap on Sunday night and then movement without any tendency making it impossible to trade.

The problem is that on Friday, except for an initial movement lasting 15 minutes between 1127 and 1118 it was more of the same: A lateral with a range of only 4 points for 16 hours until the close.

Therefore, we can’t even touch the Sp at the moment and, as you may remember, the previous two weeks were identical.

With regards to the MiniSP, here are our numbers for the past 6 weeks. We executed 81 positive operations against only 4 negative ones for a total profit of 142.75 points ($7,137.50 per Sp contract).

If you take under consideration that we have made these gains in August, when volumes are low, we consider these to be very good results but the problem we have now is that since Thursday, August 26th, the market has completely stopped and we only saw volatility when macroeconomic reports were announced. This is why we have not made any trades for the MiniSp future for the past 16 sessions. We hope that starting on Monday, we will begin to trade normally once again.

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
July 26-30	10	1	19
August 2-6	18	1	27.5
August 9-13	13	0	15.75
August 16-20	26	1	47.5
August 23-27	14	1	33
TOTAL	81	4	142.75

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again.

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

We had 2 positive operations versus 3 negatives for a loss of -45 pips.

Weekly review 9/12/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 08:09:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks.

FUTURES & STOCKS

To start, we want to share the following data with you:

- Ftsee volume is 43% below the 10 session average.

- Dax volume is 39% below the 10 session average.

- Cac France volume is 51% below the 10 session average.

- Nyse volume is 34% below the 3 month average.

- Nasdaq volume is 17% below the 3 month average.

This past week was identical to the previous one. We expected more volume and movement after the US holiday this past Monday but there was none possible due to the change in contracts from September to December for the SP. Except for the movements you can observe in the below chart which are due to macroeconomic reports, we have only seen long laterals for the Sp that do not allow us to operate as they signify movements of 1 to 3 minutes of a couple points only to later go lateral for half an hour. These market conditions made it impossible to be productive and, therefore, we didn’t trade the Sp this past week.

If you remember, the previous week was identical: The previous Tuesday the Sp went from 1040 to 1104 at the close on Friday. But take a look at how it rose, due to 4 macroeconomic reports: Tuesday from 1040 to 1052; Wednesday from 1060 to 1080; Thursday from 1080 to 1085 and Friday from 1088 to 1100. As you can see, they were really difficult sessions to operate in as there was practically no movement during the session except that related to the macroeconomic reports.

Dax

And what happened with the Dax? The same as the Sp: We traded only once, on Friday, in 5 sessions, as it was the only one with an opening gap.

We analyzed last year’s data from these dates and, last September, we would have been able to trade everyday except for 6 sessions but it was the month with the least number of signals, until this year. Take a look at Friday’s session: There was an upward gap at the opening, then it was covered, then a long lateral during which it was impossible to do anything and we hit the 3 point stop. This was the only Dax operation this past week: +3 points and 75 € made per contract.

To summarize our Dax performance to date, we have a profit of 147.5 points since we started and this week we executed one trade for a gain of 3 points. In 8 weeks, we have made an excellent gain of 3,696.50€ per contract.

MiniSP

With regards to the MiniSP, here are our numbers for the past 6 weeks. We executed 81 positive operations against only 4 negative ones for a total profit of 142.75 points ($7,137.50 per Sp contract).

If you take under consideration that we have made these gains in August, when volumes are low, we consider these to be very good results but the problem we have now is that since Thursday, August 26th, the market has completely stopped and we only saw volatility when macroeconomic reports were announced. This is why we have not made any trades for the MiniSp future for the past 11 sessions. We hope that starting on Monday, we will begin to trade normally once again.

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
July 26-30	10	1	19
August 2-6	18	1	27.5
August 9-13	13	0	15.75
August 16-20	26	1	47.5
August 23-27	14	1	33
TOTAL	81	4	142.75

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again.

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

What a week! The numbers were not bad: 5 positive operations versus 1 negative one for a total gain of +27 Pips. But, it could have been even better as there were at least 2 operations that missed their targets of 50 pips by only a couple of pips, then hitting the stops profit of +10 only to later reach their original target.

It is very complicated to find market movements which are clean and with a tendency of at least 50 pips. In addition, for Wednesday’s USA morning operation, we had to apply a stop profit as an exception as we were 20 pips from the target which, in the end, saved us from ending up with a loss. This is not the norm but we continue to make gains and to protect our capital which is what counts.

Have a great weekend!

Weekly review 9/4/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 07:09:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks.

FUTURES & STOCKS

In last weeks review, we made this statement at the beginning of the review: “We had a very good week until Thursday when the market began to move with very little volume, without any tendency and with strong up and down oscillations which made trading like a trip to the casino.”

Well, this past week, the same thing happened. We did expect it as it was the first week of the month, it was full of macroeconomic reports, it was also the last week of summer and this Monday is a US Holiday (Labor Day). Given all of these factors, it is normal that we had difficult sessions. And, if we add the fact volumes were really poor, it was truly not a good week to be in the market, just as we expected. We hope that, starting on Tuesday, we finally start to see a bit of freshness. In any case, we continue to be in the middle of a clear lateral ever since the end of April as the Sp has been in a range of a bit more than 100 points, as you can see in the chart below.

As you can see in the following Emini chart, since last Tuesday the Sp went from 1040 to 1104 at the close on Friday. But take a look at how it rose, due to 4 macroeconomic reports: Tuesday from 1040 to 1052; Wednesday from 1060 to 1080; Thursday from 1080 to 1085 and Friday from 1088 to 1100. As you can see, they were really difficult sessions to operate in as there was practically no movement during the session except that related to the macroeconomic reports.

Dax

Let’s first review the Dax technique were we gained 144.5 points since July 20th but this week we only operated in two sessions and we lost 16 points due to some pretty bad luck. As you can see, in a bit over one month, we have made and excellent gain of 3,621.50€ per contract.

Tuesday’s session was a shame, as we saw, as we lost 64 points by hitting a stop of 0.5 points when we would have made 42 points and this week, with two operations, we would have registered a gain of 90 points. But, we lacked a little bit of luck and, on top if it all, it was a double trade. On Thursday, we didn’t trade because the Sp was erratic but we would have made 29 points. Now let’s see what would have happened on Friday.

The opening gap on Friday was 7 points with an opening price of 6097 while the previous day’s close was 6104. Therefore, our technique prescribes not trading.

MiniSP

With regards to the MiniSP, here are our numbers for the past 5 weeks. We executed 81 positive operations against only 4 negative ones for a total profit of 142.75 points ($7,137.50 per Sp contract).

If you take under consideration that we have made these gains in August, when volumes are low, we consider these to be very good results but the problem we have now is that since Thursday, August 26th, the market has completely stopped and we only saw volatility when macroeconomic reports were announced. This is why we have not made any trades for the MiniSp future for the past 7 sessions. We hope that starting on Tuesday, we will begin to trade normally once again.

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
26-30 Julio	10	1	19
2-6 Agosto	18	1	27.5
9-13 Agosto	13	0	15.75
16-20 Agosto	26	1	47.5
23-27 Agosto	14	1	33
TOTAL	81	4	142.75

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

Have a great weekend!

+48 points in the Dax this morning. 1200€ per contract

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 08:07:00 +0000

This morning in the Dax , +48 points. Short at 5936 - closed at 5888

Have a nice day.

This Evening: +35 Pips in the Eur/Jpy pair

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 20:18:00 +0000

Today 2 trades, +65 Pips

This Morning: +30 Pips in the Eur/Jpy pair

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 10:02:00 +0000

Weekly review 8/29/2010: +10 points in the Dax (250€ per contract), +33 Sp ($1,650 per contract), +127 pips Forex

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 17:20:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks.

FUTURES & STOCKS

We again had a very good week for both the Dax future technique and the Sp. For the Dax this week, we only made one trade for a gain of 10 points or 250€ per contract. As you can see, for August to date, we have only made 6 Dax trades, which is much less frequent than last year when we had 15 signals. But, this summer, the market is nothing like last year.

In any case, once the summer has ended, the market will surely recover. In any case, eventhough we operated the Dax infrequently in August, our gain of 75.5 points or 1,887.50€ per contract more than pays for our services.

Below are the statistics of the technique from March, 2009, until July, 2010, when the technique would have registered a gain of close to 3500 points which, given that every Dax point is worth 25 euros, represents a gain of 87,500€ ($118,100) in one year and three months.

MiniSP

With regards to the MiniSP, our results for this past month have been spectacular. We executed 81 positive operations against only 4 negative ones for a total profit of 142.75 points ($7,137.50 per Sp contract).

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
26-30 Julio	10	1	19
2-6 Agosto	18	1	27.5
9-13 Agosto	13	0	15.75
16-20 Agosto	26	1	47.5
23-27 Agosto	14	1	33
TOTAL	81	4	142.75

If you take under consideration that we have made these gains in August, when volumes are low, we consider these to be very good results. And while we have market volatility, we expect these results to continue.

Look at the results for the week below and you’ll see that our results were great despite the fact that we operated well through Wednesday and we only made one trade between Thursday and Friday.

Therefore, we just closed ANOTHER really good week for futures: we made 250€ for the Dax with one trade and, for the Sp, we gained 33 points this week. The Sp gain for the last 5 weeks is 142.75 points or $7,137.5 per contract.

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

We also had a good week for FOREX with a gain of 127 pips with only 5 trades; 3 positive operations versus 2 negative ones.

Have a great weekend!

Wednesday's Summary (all gains): +10 Dax ($317.50), +4.25 Sp ($212.50),. +110 pips Forex

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 06:20:00 +0000

Good evening,

This morning, we gained 10 points with the Dax technique when we hit the stop profit we had set. The target was 31 points and, although in the end they were achieved, the market made some strange movements between 1051 and 1052 at the opening, like the Sp did yesterday, and this made us decide to define a stop profit, which was hit by 2 points before making the target. We even considered closing the operation, once the gap had been covered, for a gain of 21 points because last week, on two occasions, the price made it to within 2-3 points from covering the gap only to then go the other way. But, what matters is we have made 12 positives against only 3 negative ones and we have gained 160.5 points this month for the Dax (4,012.50€ or $5,095.87 per contract).

For the Sp this morning, we had one negative operation and one positive one for a loss of -0.75 points. At the opening, we gained 5 points. For the week, we have executed 14 trades for a gain of 33.75 points for the Sp. We did not operate the evening technique as the market was stagnant.

For FOREX, today we execute two European Morning trades: one Eur/Jpy long which closed for a gain of +50 Pips and the other Gbp/Usd long which hit the stop by only 2 or 3 pips for a loss of 30 pips, only to later rebound and remain for the rest of the day above our entry price (bad luck). For the USA Morning, we execute one trade, +90 pips in the Eur/Jpy.

Tuesday's Summary: +17 Sp points; +50 pips Forex

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 07:30:00 +0000

Good evening,

Yesterday, we made 12.5 points with 3 trades for the Sp and today went even better with 17 points from 6 trades. Therefore, our statistics for the week to date are 9 trades for a gain of 29.5 points.

We did not operate the Dax technique as the gap was very small.

For FOREX, the Eur/Jpy short for the European Morning technique hit the target for a gain of +50 Pips.

+10 poins in the Emini in the Opening 1079-1069, 500$ per contract

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 14:58:00 +0000

Today 3 trades +12.5 points +625$ per contract.

Weekly review 8/22/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 11:34:00 +0000

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks.

FUTURES & STOCKS

DAX

We just completed another excellent week for both Dax and Sp Futures. Last week, we made 40.5 points (1,012.50€) for the Dax. This week, we only made two trades but they added up to 15 points (375€). For the month of August, we have made 65.5 points (1,637.50€ per contract) for the Dax with the following operations:

August is not the best month to execute this technique as there usually is not an opening gap for the majority of sessions. Never-the-less this past week we executed two positive trades with some very attractive benefits.

With regards to the MiniSP, our results for this past month have been spectacular. We executed 67 positive operations against only 3 negative ones for a total profit of 109.75 points ($5,487.50 per Sp contract).

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
July 26-30	10	1	19
August 2-6	18	1	27.5
August 9-13	13	0	15.75
August16-20	26	1	47.5
TOTAL	67	3	109.75

LAST WAVE

We did not trade this technique this past week and we probably won’t trade it until the end of August as closes have been flat and there is no force in the market to allow large variations in the stocks we would recommend. We have been trading this technique in our Spanish web since 2005 and we have never traded it in August although, this year, we will execute an operation only if we see a clear opportunity. In other words, we won’t trade just to trade.

Therefore, we just closed ANOTHER really good week for futures: we made 375€ for the Dax with two trades and for the Sp we gained 47.5 points this week. The Sp gain for the month is 109.75 points or $5,487.50 per contract.

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

Have a great weekend.

Thursday Summary: +19 for Sp ($950 per contract)

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 05:39:00 +0000

We had a great day trading MiniSP futures with a gain of 19 points ($950/contract) from 6 operations. For the week, we have executed 21 trades, 20 positive and 1 negative, for a gain of 41.5 points ($2075/contract) with the following operations:

This morning, there was no Dax trade due to a lack of range at the opening.

With regards to FOREX, we only operated the European Morning Technique, hitting the stop for the shorts when England reported that retail sales will rise 1.1%, when the market expected a rise of only 0.4%, making the pair rise more than 100 pips in one minute. It was a shame as the technical aspect of the short was very good.

Regards,

Daily Market Advice

www.dailymarketadvice.com

Wednesday Summary: +9 for Sp and +10 for Dax +60 Gbp/Usd..

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 22:43:00 +0000

Good evening,

Today we executed 4 Sp operations for a gain of 9 points. For the Sp this week, we have made 15 trades, 14 positive and 1 negative for a gain of 22.5 points or $1,125 per Sp contract with the following operations:

This morning, we made 10 points (250€ per contract) trading the Dax. For the week, we have gained 375€ per contract and for the month of August we have gained 60.5 points (1,487.50 €). Remember, the Dax trade is at 8 am from our Trading Room.

With regards to FOREX, today the long trade for the Gbp/Usd pair of European technique hit the target for a 60 pip gain. As you know, while the market is week, we are only going to execute operations with the best possible risk/reward ratio. During the last couple of USA morning sessions, the pairs haven’t moved more than 50 pips. During the session today, the Eur/Jpy spent 7 horas in a range of 40 pips.

Regards,

Daily Market Advice

www.dailymarketadvice.com

Tuesday Summary: +5.5 points for the Sp & +5 points for the Dax

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 05:54:00 +0000

Good evening,

The start of this week continues to go well. We gained another 5.5 points with 4 trades during the Opening of the Sp which means we have made a total of 11 Sp trades this week, 10 positive and 1 negative, for a gain of 13.5 points or $675 per contract. These were the trades:

For the Dax this morning, we made a gain of 5 points or 125€ per contract. We had gained 40.5 last week, therefore, for August to-date we have made a total of 50.5 puntos (1262.50€) for Dax trades. Remember the Dax trade is at 8 am from our Trading Room.

With regards to FOREX, the market is still lacking a bit of strength. We only traded the European Morning technique today. We had a stop profit for the Eur/Jpy long for a profit of 10 pips after coming to within 10 pips of the 50 pip target, and we had a stop for the Gbp/Usd where we also traded long.

Regards,

Daily Market Advice

www.dailymarketadvice.com

Yesterday Summary: +8 points for Sp ($400/contract)

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 06:34:00 +0000

Good evening,

We’ve started the week for the Sp in the same place we ended last week, even though the market in August has low volume and tendency.

Today, we executed 7 Sp trades, 6 positive and 1 negative, for a gain of 8 points or $400 per contract. For the quarter, we have 47 positive trades versus 3 negative ones for a gain of 66.75 points or $3,337.50 per contract.

There was no signal for the Dax trade this morning as the opening gap was smaller than necessary to generate an operation. With regard to forex, this morning we experienced a bit of bad luck for the Gbp/Usd short. We came within 2 pips of the 50 pip target only to have the price rebound and hit the stop.

Regards,

+4 points in the opening MiniSP, $200 per contract

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 14:15:00 +0000

In the opening Emini, 2 trades, one positive and one negative. +4 Points +200$ per contract

+3 points this morning in the E-mini, 150$ per contract.

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 12:34:00 +0000

See you in the US Opening!

Weekly review 8/15/2010

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 18:17:00 +0000

http://www.dailymarketadvice.com

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks.

FUTURES & STOCKS

DAX

As we commented last weekend, this past week we introduced our new German futures trading technique in the Trading room. This trade is perfect for European and Asian residents because of the trading time which is at the opening of the German Dax at 2am EST (8am GMT +1). The technique is based on gaps in the opening of the Dax.

This past week, this technique gave us 2 trades which, in turn, earned us 40.5 points or 1.012.5€ ($1,316.25).

This past Friday, we didn’t place a trade as we doubted about the outcome but it turns out it would have been positive for another 30 points.

Below are the statistics of the technique from March, 2009, until July, 2010, when the technique would have registered a gain of close to 3500 points which, given that every Dax point is worth 25 euros, represents a gain of 87,500€ ($118,100) in one year and three months.
August is not the best month to execute this technique as there usually is not an opening gap for the majority of sessions. Never-the-less this past week we executed two positive trades with some very attractive benefits.

Let us remind you of the main characteristics of this technique:

This technique provides us with a trade if the Dax future opens with a gap at least 10 points larger than the previous day’s close. Normally, we set a target of the gap’s close plus 10 points with a stop equivalent to the gap size. If we hit the stop, we open a contrary position with a target of the gap plus 10 points.

Let’s review the following example:

Let’s imagine the Dax closed yesterday at 6300 points and today is opening at 6320.

The technique would call for us to trade short at 6320 points with a stop at 6340 points (20 points – the size of the gap) and a repurchasing target at 6290 points (20 + 10 points).

If we hit the target of 6290, we would gain 30 points and the trade would end for that day.

On the other hand, if we hit the stop at 6340, we will open a long position with a target of 6370 and a stop at 6320 points.

In case you aren’t sure you’ve correctly understood this example, every day we will clearly publish the signals from our trading room.

SP

With regards to the MiniSP, as of three weeks ago we have been placing Sp trades from our Trading Room in the private part of our web. The following are our results since we began to publish signals for this technique via the Trading Room. We executed 41 positive operations and only 2 negative ones for a gain of 62.25 points in three weeks which represents a monetary profit of $3,112.50 per contract.

Week

Positive

Negative

SP Points

July 26-30

10

1

19

August 2-6

18

1

27.5

August 9-13

13

0

15.75

TOTAL

41

2

62.25

Given that these gains were made in August, that this past Tuesday there was a Fed meeting, that Monday we only were able to make 0.25 points and Tuesday only 2 points, we believe these are excellent returns. And these returns should only improve when market volume rises.
LAST WAVE

We did not trade this technique this past week and we probably won’t trade it until the end of August as closes have been flat and there is no force in the market to allow large variations in the stocks we would recommend. We have been trading this technique in our Spanish web since 2005 and we have never traded it in August although, this year, we will execute an operation only if we see a clear opportunity. In other words, we won’t trade just to trade.

Therefore, we just closed ANOTHER really good week for futures and stocks: we made 1,012.5€ ($1,316.25) for the Dax and a 15.5 point gain for the Sp. For the SP over the last three weeks we have gained 62.25 points or $3,112.50 per contract.

FOREX

Now let’s review our week in Forex.

Trades this past week:

We had a good week with 5 positive operations and no negative trades for a gain of +145 Pips. This past week, the pairs had tendency which we had been hoping for. This allowed us to break the lateral market which only permitted us to enter at the same level each day.

As we continue to work on the improvements we will put to work soon, we encourage you to take a look at the futures markets. This month and only from signals from the trading room, we have made a profit of $2,000 for the MiniSP. It is one of the futures with the greatest liquidity. The guarantees necessary to operate with it are between $500 and $3,500 depending on the broker. Obviously, it is not FOREX in that the economic requirements are somewhat superior. Never-the-less, we try to be where the money is. By the way, speaking of where the money is or where it is going, this week we read two interesting articles; one bad and one good. Or so they say because they both may be horrible...

The “good” news; FOREX volume increases and returns to pre-crisis levels.

Foreign Exchange Committee Releases FX Volume Survey Results.

– The Foreign Exchange Committee today released the results of its twelfth Survey of North American Foreign Exchange Volume. For the April 2010 reporting period, key findings are featured below.

 Average daily volume in total over-the-counter foreign exchange instruments (including spot transactions, outright forwards, foreign exchange swaps, and options) totaled $754 billion in April 2010, up 11.8 percent from the $675 billion reported in October 2009 and just below the record $762 billion reached in October 2008.

 Following the sharp decline in turnover evidenced in the April 2009 survey, average daily volume has resumed its historic upward trend, with rising volume across all instrument types and execution methods as well as most counterparty types and currency pairs.

 Average daily volume in spot foreign exchange transactions rose relative to the prior survey, but remained below the record reached in October 2008. Average daily volumes in both outright forwards and foreign exchange swaps, however, registered new highs of $104 billion and $203 billion, respectively, in April 2010.

 Since the survey’s inception in 2004, the average trade size declined steadily from $4.3 million to roughly $1.8 million in October 2008. It has remained near this level in all subsequent surveys.

After the dive in October, nothing was the same; not for FX, not for any other market and not for the “real” economy. This was the good news (it is really not good and later we’ll explain why). And now, the bad news. Many of you read us from the USA or Asia where there are many new regulations such as leverage reduction, hedge prohibition (long and short for the same pair), etc.

The bad news; Obama wants to prohibit the FX Spot.

Obama Threatens Forex; Says Goodbye to OTC Gold Trading
James identified four key points which may severely affect OTC forex in the US:
Elimination of OTC Forex: Effective 90 days from its inception, the Dodd-Frank Act bans most retail OTC forex transactions. Section 742(c) of the Act states as follows: “…A person [which includes companies] shall not offer to, or enter into with, a person that is not an eligible contract participant, any agreement, contract, or transaction in foreign currency except pursuant to a rule or regulation of a Federal regulatory agency allowing the agreement, contract, or transaction under such terms and conditions as the Federal regulatory agency shall prescribe…”

Elimination of OTC Metals: As for OTC precious metals such as gold or silver, Section 742(a) of the Act prohibits any person [which again includes companies] from entering into, or offering to enter into, a transaction in any commodity with a person that is not an eligible contract participant or an eligible commercial entity, on a leveraged or margined basis. This provision intends to expand the narrow so called “Zelener fix” in the Farm Bill previously ratified by congress in 2008. The Farm Bill empowered the CFTC to pursue anti-fraud actions involving rolling spot transactions and/or other leveraged forex transactions without the need to prove that they are futures contracts. The Dodd-Frank Act now expands this authority to include virtually all retail cash commodity market products that involve leverage or margin – in other words OTC precious metals.

Small Pool Exemption Eliminated: Pursuant to Section 403 of Act, the “private adviser” exemption, namely Section 203(b)(3) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (“Advisers Act”), will be eliminated within one year of the Act’s effective date (July 21, 2011). Historically, many unregistered U.S. fund managers had relied on this exemption to avoid registration where they: (1) had fewer than 15 clients in the past 12 months; (2) do not hold themselves out generally to the public as investment advisers; and (3) do not act as investment advisers to a registered investment company or business development company.

Accredited Investor Qualifications: Section 413(a) of the Act alters the financial qualifications of who can be considered an accredited investor, and thus a qualified as eligible participant (“QEP”). Specifically, the revised accredited investor standard includes only the following types of individuals: 1) A natural person whose individual net worth, or joint net worth with spouse, is at least $1,000,000, excluding the value of such investor’s primary residence; 2) A natural person who had individual income in excess of $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of those years and a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year; or 3) A director, executive officer, or general partner of the issuer of the securities being offered or sold, or a director, executive officer, or general partner of a general partner of that issuer.

Talking to Bart Mallon from Mallon P.C. it seems that there is actually little new in this bill and that the CFTC will need to complete its own rules within the next 2.5 months or so. These rules include the infamous leverage and guaranteed IB requirements however Bart feels that the final rules will not be as bad as some may think.
Whatever the case is I advise US forex traders once again to shift their accounts to more sane regulatory locations, as even Obama himself may ‘have a tooth against’ retail forex. I wonder which broker hunted his stops.

You can find more information and opinions at http://forexmagnates.com/obamas or http://www.fxstreet.com/education/markets-regulation/obama-forex-otc-gold-trading/2010-08-05.html.

Let’s return now to the question of volumes and analyze if it is good or bad news. If we keep in mind that these volumes have increased due to desperate bank interventions - USD/JPY AT HISTORIC LOW, EUR/USD PUSHED TO 1.30, NATIONAL SWISS BANK INTERVENED AND LOSING 14 MILLON FRANKS (APPROX. 13 MILLON DOLLARS) - is the recovery of volume really "good news"? Whose money is increasing these volumes? It is definitely not coming fro the majority of investors or speculators like us.

FX intervention may be a losing game. Link to Reuters

Does this mean that we are doing well and the economic recovery has started? You be the judge. But this money is coming into Fx only to avoid the unavoidable… The US wants to make access to FX difficult for the individual trader by having institutions inject public fund… And losing them… Maybe they will be successful, but we are clear that neither of the articles harbors good news.

Thursday's Results: 6 point gain for Sp, 30.5 points for Dax & +50 pips for Forex

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 06:28:00 +0000

Good evening,

Today we made 30.5 points for the Dax which means a profit of 762,50€. As you know, the Dax trade is at 2 am EST in the Trading Room and it is therefore conveniente for traders living in Europe and Asia as well as those in the US with insomnia... As we commented this past weekend, we are making great profits recently with this technique.

For the Sp, we made 5 trades for a profit of 6 points or $300 per contract. For August, we have executed 31 operations, 30 positive and 1 negative, for a total profit of 40.75 points in 10 sessions ($2037.50 per contract). We are pleased with these numbers, as we hope you are as well, and we expect they will improve as market volatility and volume grow.

For FX, we made only one trade via email today, which just closed for a 50 pip gain after having been only 20 pips from the 100 pip target. We are trying to execute more trades from the trading room now. As you know, they are rapid scalping operations and we haven’t always had time to place the trades. We are going to continue to improve this aspect over the next few weeks.

Wednesday's profits: 5 points for Sp and 60 pips for FX

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Dosil) — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 06:23:00 +0000

Good evening everyone,

Yesterday we executed the following trades:

- For the Sp, we made two trades for a 5 point profit, or $250 per contract. For the month of August, we have executed 26 operations, 25 of which were positive and only 1 negative, for a total profit of 34.75 points, $1737.50 per contract, in 9 sessions. These numbers are very good but just wait for when market volatility and volume increase; then they will be even better.

For Fx, today we made 60 pips: 10 pips in an operation Eur/Jpy made in the Trading Room as well as +50 pips for the Gbp/Usd trade.