blog.dlewis.net

What Captain Sullenberger Meant to Say (But Was Too Polite to Do So): A Guest Post - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:13:32 -0400

What Captain Sullenberger Meant to Say (But Was Too Polite to Do So): A Guest Post - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com

Kobe's Double-clutch vs. Michael Jordan's Hand Switch

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:50:14 -0400

Kobe's Double-clutch vs. Michael Jordan's Hand Switch

Marginal Revolution: How to follow current events

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:08:47 -0400

Marginal Revolution: How to follow current events

Marginal Revolution: How to disappear

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 08:40:37 -0400

Marginal Revolution: How to disappear

This is Photobomb - Two Thumbs Up

Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:28:46 -0400

This is Photobomb - Two Thumbs Up

Same Sex Couple Married in New York City - Even though it’s not legal there

Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:22:35 -0400

Same Sex Couple Married in New York City - Even though it’s not legal there

Beat The Path: Great Minds

Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:21:38 -0400

Beat The Path: Great Minds

Moving off Tumblr, to WPress

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 15:18:17 -0400

Not sure why. http://dlewis.net now.

The Future of Newspapers, According to Me

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:30:31 -0500

I wrote a column on the topic for CenterNetworks about a week ago.

It’s a bit long but, I hope, an easy read. The Cliff’s Notes version:

1) Let the Web product dictate the content of the paper, not the other way around.

2) Focus on verticals.

3) Expect to sell content.

Giant Dunkin' Donuts Tragedy

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:19:43 -0500

friarblog:

A picture of the Giant Dunkin’ Donuts cup that used to grace Shea Stadium, on its side during the demolition of the […] stadium.

I think I want that more than the Ryan Gomes bobblehead.

Via Stadiumpage.com

My take on the Pajamas Media ad network collapse.

Sun, 01 Feb 2009 12:10:27 -0500

I just posted this comment on a blog elsewhere, but it’s stuck in a moderation queue. Here’s the full text. I will probably go into more depth later, but the core point is that ad networks such as PJM use early capital to acquire ad space on many properties, aggregate that space, and then resell it. As the volume grows, they can command higher CPMs, and at some point, are no longer burning capital. It looks like PJM just didn’t get to that point.

***

I have no affiliation w/PJM whatsoever. I follow ad networks, though, having negotiated a number of contracts there. There is *no way whatsoever* that PJM was able to fork over $4 to $7 CPM and not do so at a loss. If you need evidence of that, check out the history of Glam, a fashion/lifestyle network, and specifically http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/03/29/glam-makes-big-cuts-in-publisher-payments-up-to-80-drop-in-revenue/ The basic idea behind these networks is to buy exclusive rights on a blog at a premium (that is, at a loss for the network) in order to get to scale. You aggregate millions of unique visitors per month, targeting a specific demographic. Once you hit scale, everything is easier, including selling ads and finding ways to get more impressions for a lower CPM from publishers — that’s the sweet spot. Then, and only then, are you going to profit. Given the numbers — $4 to $7 CPM and only 29MM pv/month — I’d be shocked if PJM were running anything other than a horrific loss. Let’s say they had a well-optimized remnant chain ($1 CPM) and in a below average month, sold 50% at $3 CPM. (I think those assumptions are on the high end, for what it’s worth.) Let’s also assume that they paid out $4 CPM that month, also assuming best case scenario for PJM’s profitability. That’s a loss of 29k*$2 = $58,000 that month. One could imagine that happening 4x a year, with few if any significantly profitable months. Even conservatively, PJM was probably running a loss in the hundreds of thousands of dollars **just to acquire ad space**.

Call This. Now.

Sun, 01 Feb 2009 10:54:34 -0500

718-971-5245

Ollie Has Nothing on Derek Lowe

Thu, 08 Jan 2009 09:39:00 -0500

Over at Hot Foot, Andrew Beaton makes the case for Oliver Perez over Derek Lowe.

I don’t buy it. Lowe is the better pitcher and will likely continue to be the better pitcher for the next three years. Here’s why.

1) A Lot of Inconsistency Yields Mediocre Results.

We Mets fans remember fondly Ollie’s 2006 playoffs. Others recall his 2004 season with the Pirates — a 2.98 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 196 IP, for a league-leading 10.97 K/9. And we saw glimmers of domination in his two-plus years at Shea. As they say, hope springs eternal.

But here is the outstanding fact:

Oliver Perez was a league average pitcher in 2008. Yes, league average, with an ERA+ of 100.

He was better in 2007 (120 ERA+) but for his career is slightly below average at 96.

Derek Lowe, on the other hand: 177, 104, 90, 114, 124, 118, and 131 last year, in seven years as a starter. Including his relief experience, he has a career ERA+ of 122.

2) Count the Outs.

Over the last two years, Perez started 63 games for the Mets, racking up 177 innings in 2007 (29 starts) and 196 last year (34 starts).

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Derek Lowe has only put up sub-200 IP seasons twice: in 2005 he hit 199.3, and in 2004 he was at 182.7. In fact, excepting that 2004 season, Lowe’s lowest seasonal IP (199.3 in ‘04) is still higher than Perez’s best output.

Let’s just focus on 2008 though, because they both put up 34 starts. Perez: 196 IP. Lowe: 211. Lowe pitched 15 more innings. This additional output comes at a clear savings: there’s less need to tax the bullpen.

3) “Consistent” Does Not Mean “Average.”

Hearing about how “inconsistent” Perez is, one gets the idea that he dominates games when he’s on. That’s mostly correct — in the past two years, he has ten starts with a game score of 70 or higher, peaking with a 79 against Milwaukee in early 2007. That’s quite good — ten 70+s in, again, 63 starts.

But the second inference is that Lowe, by being “consistent”, is not as dominating as Perez on Ollie’s best days. Untrue. In the same two seasons, Lowe put up eleven 70+s in three more starts. His best game: last July, versus Washington, spotting an 83. He followed that up with an August win over Arizona, sporting an 80.

It’s clear:

Derek Lowe gives you better quality throughout the season, and more of it. And you don’t lose anything on the upside.

My year in cities, 2008

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:16:27 -0500

A great idea from Jason Kottke:

Every city I’ve spent at least one night in, 2008. Kottke includes Waitsfield, VT — population 1,969! — so I’m being as liberal.

New York, NY
Fairfield, CT
Stamford, CT
Colts Neck, NJ
Miami, FL
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Westlake Village, CA
Beverly Hills, CA

Not a bad list, I guess. How’s yours?

How The Economy Went Poof (via The Big Picture)

Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:23:00 -0500

How The Economy Went Poof

(via The Big Picture)

Revisiting My Mets Wish List: The Bullpen

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:39:40 -0500

Three weeks ago, I said:

Bullpen

Ye gods.

It sucks, we all know it. Except for Joe Smith, I’d be okay if not a single Mets reliever came back. That’s not happening.

We need a closer and an 8th inning guy, at bare minimums. We also need four to five other bodies. We need to dump Aaron Heilman, which I say as a die-hard Heilman apologist. And finally, we need to dump either Pedro Felciano or Scott Schoenweis (which I misspelled, surely), as both are best suited as LOOGYs and you don’t need two of those.

So let’s see:

Heilman? Gone.

Scho/Feliciano? One gone, one staying.

Closer? K-Rod.

8th Inning? Putz.

Joe Smith? Gone, but replaced by Sean Green, who is basically an older version of Joe Smith, ROOGY.

Everyone else? We’ll see, but it’s shaping up good so far. Wish: Granted.

Etymology of a Meme

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:44:23 -0500

Story 1:

In Maryland, high schoolers are pulling a creative new prank: They print up copies of their target’s license plate number (using glossy paper and laser printers) and speed past anti-speeding cameras. The camera takes a picture and sends a $40 ticket to the (innocent) registrant assigned to the license plate.

Story 2:

The story, above, is a “WEB EXCLUSIVE” of The Sentinel, a Maryland publication — which before today, I had never heard of. Quantcast estimates it has roughly 521 monthly visitors.

The story was picked up by TheNewspaper.com, a journal of driving-related stuff. Again, I had never heard of it. Quantcast: 13.1K monthly visitors.

TheNewspaper’s report was hit on by GeekPress, which cited a mailing list its editor subscribes to as the source, but not The Sentinel (through no fault of GeekPress). GeekPress, which I had heard of and read occassionally, is not listed in Quantcast, but it has roughly 400 Google Reader subscribers. I am not one of them.

I, and an estimated 165,000 others, do subscribe to Marginal Revolution, which noted the story on GeekPress (but again, as is common, did not trace back to the source or the root source). Quantcast suggest that nearly 60,000 people read MR monthly, which does not mesh with the Google Reader data, but whatever.

A Google search on “montgomery county license plate scam” returns this page as a top result. (The Sentinel, itself, does not use the word “scam”.)

The page:

Notes that “The Sentinel” brok the story
Has three ads
Is skeptical of The Sentinel’s report
Does not link to The Sentinel (or to any other source)

***

Lesson 1: Even the smallest newspaper (or whatever The Sentinel is) can start a fire.

Lesson 1a: That newspaper probably won’t get credit, or enough credit. All the links should go to the root story, but it’s too hard for downstream readers/bloggers to find the right link. It took me a click from my RSS reader to GeekPress to TheNewspaper to The Sentinel, and the value add was minimal.

Lesson 1b: When links are currency — that is, when links spread “Google Juice” and therefore traffic — something is amiss.

Lesson 1c: But Google is pretty smart, after all.

Lesson 2: I clearly found the story about the prank interesting.

Lesson 2a: But I found the story about how the link spread to be much more fascinating.

My recent post is a link to MLB Trade Rumors. If you go to the...

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:54:47 -0500

My recent post is a link to MLB Trade Rumors. If you go to the page, you may get to see what I saw, pasted above.

Check out the ad.

Uh…. you’re welcome?

Putz, K-Rod... and Lowe? Sweet.

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:50:47 -0500

Putz, K-Rod... and Lowe? Sweet.:

Query:

Do we still need a bat if we have a rotation of Johan, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, ____, with an 8th/9th of Putz/K-Rod?

I think “yes”. But before, I was saying “absolutely.”

Yeah, Because Stalin LOVED Bankers and Private Industry

Sat, 20 Dec 2008 16:29:00 -0500

meiko December 19th, 2008 9:38 pm ET

This country is so out of wack that traders and CEO in the name of free enterprise can make 10, 100 and 1000 times more than the President and the Secretary of State. Freedom does not mean that you can do whatever you want. TAX ALL those making more than 500,000 90% or give them the option of donating all their EXTRA pay to the homeless and the ones without health insurance.

GuyInVA December 19th, 2008 10:57 pm ET

You tell’em Meiko. Stalin would be proud.

Source