Dancing Naked On Wall Street

J.R.'s Earnings Watch This Week......

2012-02-13T12:46:00.000-05:00

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap...Take it back....and it did!!!

2012-02-12T17:31:00.000-05:00

Take it back, take it back, take it all back! Rah! For those of us who still have FEB ITM calls, another day like Friday would be heaven sent. With expiration coming up at the end of the week be careful not to fold your hand too late.

TR1 1370
TR2 1381
TS1 1325
TS2 1285
POI 1313
Summary:
Daily SPX: Four days up and the last day ends up less than where it closed last week. Also looking at that lower wick it wanted to give up even more. That keeps my targets for support close to the same ones I called last week and my point of interest remains 1313.
Weekly: MoBo is still green and riding the upper rail but the pullback back below the TR1 of 1345 shows some signs of weakness. Watch that rail closely and the 1325!
Monthly: Has developed a solid body with the reach of 1370 still in sight but is there enough steam to keep it rising after this long?
Weekly VIX: Big mean greenie showing up here. The close above the 20 says there still could be some fear withing our midst. The overseas action and the media's interpretative regurgitation of it will play a big factor this coming week. No matter, just see it for what it is.
Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and passion. J.R.

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap....Orbiter Grind...........

2012-02-03T17:18:00.000-05:00

Talk about your slow grind, unless you are long on everything this is getting old. Most of the slow grinds I have known always ended in some sort of a climatic finish. Brings to mind the cafe scene from "When Harry Met Sally" . Time to roll over and have that smoke now.

TR1=1365

TR2=1381

TS1=1313

TS2=1285

POI=1313

Summary:

Daily- As we see the action pulled away from the 1313 but was it media driven from the good numbers on Friday and or the covering of shorts at the end of the day. Don't know, don't care but what I do see is opportunity on the short side. Look what happened last November after October's run up.

Weekly- MoBo still green but the last candle top is stretching tight away from the upper rail. Notice how it stopped at a previous rail high. Hmmm. That was last weeks TR1

Monthly- Three days in and looking solid but last month failed at the 1333 so watch out for any action below that area. TR2 is still the 78% fib line.

VIX Weekly- Today's action really put the drop to Mr. VIX but it did see some time above the 20 mark so it is not that far removed just yet.

Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and passion. J.R.

WAG the dog...........

2012-01-31T13:15:00.000-05:00

Swimming naked across the Amazon.......

2012-01-30T12:52:00.001-05:00

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap....I've got a feeling.....

2012-01-27T18:07:00.000-05:00

....that's right! I've got a feeling, it's called an assumption. But I am not going to tell you what it is because I would not want to bias you on yours. Everybody has an assumption even if that assumption is that there are no assumptions to have. And I want you to find your own. But having an assumption is only worth having if you act upon it. So what's in your wallet? Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and passion. J.R.

Summary:
Daily: the SPX jumped up 13 points through the week but the last two days action only netted a one point gain since my last wrap. all else looks the same.
Weekly: the momentum shown by the MoBo is still green and the action is riding on the top rail but that one point move almost gave us a doji. Feel some hesitation?
Monthly: still have a full figured body on this candle but have a nice size wick on the top. If that gets lit that candle could melt very quickly.
Weekly VIX: kissed into the sweet sixteens but also smacked its head on the 20. Any action above the 20 could start a much needed correction for the more recent rally to keep things in perspective.
Targets:
TR1 1345
TR2 1370 - 1381
TS1 1300
TS2 1260
POI 1313

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap

2012-01-22T22:31:00.000-05:00

Hope everyone's log sheet posted profits for the first expiration of 2012.

Starting with this post I am going to change the weekly wrap a bit to give it a little structure. I have realized I am getting close to 100 hits a day and several of you have began to ask questions as to whether I am bullish or bearish or just crazy. Neither of which should be relevant to your trades as you must trade your money with your strategies and with your bias. What I will try to give each week are some primary and secondary targets of support and resistance that I see and use in my bias. I will continue to give a brief summary of each SPX and VIX chart I use. With that let's roll.

Daily: This week the SPX took out the 1300 and closed at 1315. It has yet to put in a test for conformation. note all the oval areas I have on the chart, they are all gathered around a point of interest I call the 1313 which I refereed to many times the first half of last year.

Weekly: I look at the weekly to confirm what I see on the daily but mostly I look at momentum here. Currently I am using a MOBO which is very simple and easy to read. It has turned green a few weeks ago thus the intended direction is bullish for now.

Monthly: I look at the monthly for historical direction and where the SPX is in relationship to where it has been. I like using the FIB retracement to show this when it is below it's all time high. Note the strong candle for January with no wicks. Could it be looking for the 78% fib line?

Weekly VIX: Has dipped down into the teens for the first time since last July. I don't use the VIX as a directional measure but I do use it as a fear and greed indicator. More importantly I use it as a gauge for selecting the best strategy to get the best bang for my buck.

Targets:

TR1=1345

TR2=1381

TS1=1300

TS2=1260

POI=1313

Enjoy the video, these pups are great, good to know there are some in the new generation that appreciate real music,,,,trade to trade well with patience, persistence and passion. J.R.

J.R.'s Weekly Watch List

2012-01-16T11:17:00.001-05:00

The market presents us with many stocks reporting out their earnings this week. Most notably the are Financials. Here is a list I am watching along with a few of the more traded stocks in general. If you have a bias one way or the other a vertical spread might reward you with a big move in your favored direction. If you feel you know what the expected move might be then lock it in with an iron condor and if you are really confident then just strangle the SOB. Either way trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice.

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap...streaking out of 2011....

2012-01-15T23:41:00.000-05:00

Well as anticipated the Daily SPX headed up towards the 1300 this week but couldn't quite get there. It brushed up against the 1297 but fell away on Friday. Looking at the daily chart I still see the shaded oval area as a playground this coming week, again somewhere between the 1260 and the 1300. If the reports due out this week are manipulated by the news media as being over positive we could see the 1300 flirted with if not actually taken out. The weekly is in it's second week of the glow of the green lantern and riding on the upper band. On a long term note the monthly so far is making a higher low and has made a higher high for the first time since October. Old Mr VIX still refuses to close below the 20 mark on the weekly and is setting a firm bottom in place over the last few weeks. So where am I this week? The market has had a nice run up since entering 2012 and I will be watching for some pullback but as a whole I will stay neutrally bullish. What the heck is that you say? Selling a lot of iron condors with a lot of extra puts that may be in need of a clothing store. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice.....J.R.

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap.......a new beginning...........

2012-01-08T23:10:00.000-05:00

What a nice beginning for the new year. All that resistance that was holding the SPX daily back has been broken for now. Look now for a short term target of 1300. Support will be the close of 2011 (as well as 2010) around the 1257-60 range. The bullish stance this week is supported by the MoBo on the weekly changing from red to green. This week also shows a higher high on the monthly giving the 68% Fib line a little more solid ground to stand on. Mr VIX has a close enough double bottom on it's weekly to keep the makket from becoming too complacent and retain a little volatility with a tad of premium. So what direction am I trading? Closely neutral with some room for the upside. To get an edge on the market for 2012 watch the video below. If you can grasp the concept it portrays then you will understand how I will be trading this year. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice.

The concept is keep going no matter what hits you. That is your edge.
Combine this with small, high probability, managed risk trades and you will
have a profitable year in 2012

Let's Get Naked.........

2012-01-02T18:48:00.000-05:00

MELI

Feb 70 Put 2.30

Happy New Year!....and Goodbye to another year....

2012-01-01T20:19:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year to all and thanks to all those who have taken the time to stop by and check out this blog even if you were looking for naked dancers because if you were then maybe I sparked some interest in you for taking control of your own finances by understanding some basic chart porn.

I exploded the four square chart I normally use so that you can see each time frame a little better for this end of year snapshot.

Let's start with a look at the daily SPX. The purple line is the close of 2010 at 1257.64 The close for 2011 was 1257.60 We have not seen this small of a difference since Harry S. Truman was in office. Remember we are talking the SPX here and not the DJI which finished out this year at 5.5% positive but is only 30 stocks verses 500 which I believe gives a better representation. The daily has struggled since it's high in May and has continued to make a solid downtrend especially after loosing the 200ma in August. Note how the 200ma, the downtrend and last year's close all converged together at the end of 2011. Look at how many times the daily flirted with the 1257 line this year. I guess this is as good of any place to begin 2012.

Looking at the weekly SPX we see the MoBo is still blushing red. One bullish sign might be that the previous week broke to the upside of the downtrend line and last week came back to test it and held. The first week back may show us a near term direction but being a four day week I want to see the action of all the players when the show up in the 9th.

On the monthly there seems to be some sideways action since the close of October. It has made higher lows but has not made higher highs. I am sure the bulls are waiting to jump on this and surf the wave back into the channel but the 78.6% Fib must be scored to do so and that's where it fell off to begin with last year.

My dear friend Mr. VIX like the rest of us was on a quest for stranger tides but could not find the youthfulness of his teens either. That makes it interesting for the options trader as we do love an older VIX.

So what's the point of all this? Where are we going in 2012? Will it be an up year because it is an election year? Will it double dip due to the strain of global finances? Will it all end on December 21? All I can say is WHO CARES!! All I know and can predict is that I will take advantage of every opportunity as it presents it's self to me. Whether long, short or somewhere in between there is money to be had from these charts when applying the probabilities of success to manageable risk/reward. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice.....Jimmie

2011-12-25T14:11:00.000-05:00

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap....Yes Virginia there really is a Santa.....

2011-12-23T17:26:00.000-05:00

What a nice little rally on the end of the day! That pushed the SPX above the 200ma on the daily as well as over the downtrend line. The most significant break through is it is 8 points above the close of last year's end for a less than a 1% gain. I hope all you self directed traders are beating that figure for the year! But don't pop the cork on the champagne just yet, there are still four more trading days left this year and we have yet to get a conformation on today's action with a higher high or a bounce off the newly formed support. The weekly SPX still has not turned green on the MoBo even though the candle has poked its head through the upside of downtrend. The monthly however has done a good job of maintaining the 61.8% Fib line and is establishing a nice hammer to ring in the New Years with. Mr VIX settled down toward the 20 mark but keep in mind most of the players are taking a hiatus right now so the action will be down. So until next week have a Merry Christmas and trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice. Jimmie

J.R.'s Weekly Watch List....what's in your stocking....

2011-12-19T09:33:00.000-05:00

Here are a few stocks that have earnings to post this week. might be several angles to play options on these that could put a nice ROI in your stocking with a HPT.

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap

2011-12-18T16:14:00.000-05:00

Looks like Santa will need to clone Rudolf and the rest of the herd to take the SPX to the green zone by the end of the year. That 200MA on the daily is one rooftop Ol' St. Nick might not land on this Christmas. The red box seems to be the more appropriately wrapped present for now. Look at the weekly SPX and note the MoBo is still bleeding red as well. The monthly has finally moved off and closed below October's finish and has lost the 61.8% Fib line as well. What has me concerned is that the VIX has had a 25% drop over the last three weeks but the SPX only rose a tad over 5%. Not much of a Santa rally if you ask me. However it is still Christmas and there could be a miracle on 34th street yet but since most of the good little trading boys and girls are all tuck in their beds with visions of sugar plums in their head, I don't look for much action this week or next week. But be very careful as it is precisely times like this that the Grinch sneaks in and steals everything. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice. Jimmie

J.R.'s Weekly Watch List

2011-12-12T10:34:00.000-05:00

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap...HO HO HO did Santa lose his mojo.......

2011-12-10T11:25:00.000-05:00

With Christmas right around the corner I half expected Ol' Saint Nick to give us a little more of a run for the money. But as you can see the SPX has yet to take out the 200MA on the daily or breakout of the current downtrend and the support remains at 1230. The weekly MoBo has Santa and his reindeer flying in the red clouds where Rudolf's nose is not much help. December continues to hang above the 61.8% Fib line but is having a hard time making a higher high. One positive is that Mr. VIX got the snow kick out of him this week. So is there hope for Santa and a big rally? Of course there is, after all it is Christmas time. But don't go opening those presents just yet 'cause it ain't over till the fat man makes it down the chimney. This could be the week of a breakout but be wary of any huge moves to the upside as they may not be sustained. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice. J.R.

J.R.'s Weekly Watch List....who's watching who......

2011-12-05T08:10:00.000-05:00

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap.......push it real good.....

2011-12-05T00:17:00.000-05:00

Okay, now here we are right back where we were two weeks ago, pushing the 200MA and the bottom side of the downtrend line. So what's changed? The perceptions of those trading and their view on the global markets. But that changing process never changes now does it? ONce again I have to be mechanical in trading what I see as I see it. The daily shows me resistence to overcome before continuing to ride the young bull and I see conformation on the weekly along with the MOBO still showing a down signal even with last weeks big green candle. The monthly shows November closing where October left off and no higher high but yet hanging on to the 61.8% fib line. The VIX weekly managed to close below the 30 mark but the previous week's closing near it's high still concerns me some. If the media maintains a positive outlook on the global condition and Santa gets his fat ass out the sleigh and pushes we could see a break above the 200MA and possibly go as high as the 1300 range. Just keep a close watch out for the nay sayers because they could head it right back down to the 1150 area. Either way, trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice. J.R.

J.R.'s Weekly Wrap.......falling down....

2011-11-25T14:19:00.000-05:00

Stuffed? I am. Need to clean the cobwebs off the tread mill now. What a week! After breaking down support from last week the SPX continued to fall down even with a short week and lower volume. It is now back in the middle of the range it created between August and October. There might be some minor support at the 1150 but if that does not hold we could see the 1100 again this next week. On the weekly SPX you can see where I pulled the 1150 support from. Also note that the 10ma has pulled away from the 40ma as well.. The monthly has a week to go yet but has made a very nice piercing candle so far to last month's bullish candle. Looking at the VIX makes me believe that the SPX downtrend could continue for awhile as the VIX has closed in the upper range of where it has wanted to be over the last few weeks but just could not hold it until now. So all this said I am still bearish for now but ready to cover on a solid reversal. We'll have to wait and see what the market brings as it get back into full swing come Monday. Hope you all had enough turkey. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice. J.R.

Happy Thanksgiving from Dancing Naked On Wall Street...

2011-11-23T16:22:00.000-05:00

.....remembering the humor of Thanksgivings past.

J.R.'s Weekly Watch of stocks with earnings reports.....

2011-11-21T08:15:00.000-05:00

MDT

HPQ

Occupy this.........

2011-11-20T16:57:00.000-05:00

JR's Weekly Wrap.........Pay me my money down..........

2011-11-19T11:46:00.000-05:00

As we came into this expiration week the market had set up a pennant for us to ponder. Would it break up, down or continue sideways? Well Thursday's action showed us a sign of what may be to come especially if it continues below the 1200. that would confirm us back into the 1230-1100 range we were in for so long. On the weekly we see the convergence of the 40MA and the 10MA but with this weeks action any further movement towards each other may be postpone for a while. The monthly candle although small in comparison to last month has finally taken a direction opposite of where it left off. Dropping below the 61% fib line creates yet another resistance hurdle to climb back over. As I ponder the weekly VIX it still remains above the 30 mark but what gets my attention most is the upper wicks (in the highlighted oval) and where it keeps reaching toward. As if saying I am ready to explode again, just give me a good reason! With this I am cautiously bearish with some call spreads but still have a few short puts far enough out of the money to be useful yet. As long as the probabilities are in my favor and they pay me my money down then I am in. Trade to trade well with patience, persistence and practice. J.R.