Daneric's Elliott Waves

E-minis

2012-01-27T05:13:00.001-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 January 2012

2012-01-26T16:26:00.002-05:00

Primary count is the market is tracing out a corrective wave iv of (c) of [y] of Minor 2. Today's high of SPX 1333.47 would mark the price top of wave iii.

There are 4 things to watch and all can be seen in the SPX chart below:

1. The support zone (marked as Key Price Zone) should hold for wave iv. It has so far.

2. The lower channel line should, in general, hold for wave iv.

3. Wave iv should take the form of a corrective pattern [a]-[b][c] either a flat, zigzag or triangle or a combination.

4. An impulse 5 wave pattern to the downside would indicate a trend change to bearish. So far at least the wave pattern from today's early high does not count well as an impulse down. Therefore we assume the market is tracing Subminuette wave iv with wave v to come after the corrective is over.

Fib calculations for wave v:

This is getting ahead of things but since wave i is the proposed longest wave of the structure, wave v will be shorter than wave iii. A good target for v would be .618 times the price length of wave i in this case.

Suppose wave iv's price low is 1310 SPX. You would then take 82.25 (price length of i) multiplied by .618 and you get a projected wave v price length of 51 points. 1310 + 51 points = a top of 1361 which would just break Prechter's announced stop of 1360.

The "minimum" requirement for wave v is just to make a higher high above today's 1333 mark. So our target range for wave v would be 1334 to roughly 1361. This is very much subject to change depending on our ability to identify a completed wave iv, but I wanted to show how the thought process works in EW theory.

E-minis

2012-01-26T05:22:00.001-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 January 2012 [Update 10:40PM]

2012-01-25T16:27:00.002-05:00

Update 10:40PM: Long term daily Wilshire 5000 chart. Watching the trendlines both down and up.. Overbought. Total volume low.

Update 7:17PM: Updated Apple chart. This is a very satisfying EW pattern. Mature in its waves, channeling and technicals. Sentiment is so freaking high on Apple I cannot imagine it getting higher. Thats how a top is supposed to be where one cannot imagine any downside.

Perhaps it has some Minute squiggles left in it, I don't know. but I do know they are definitely the rage of the media at the moment surpassing everything before.

Update 6:20PM: The last "unfinished" business is the dollar filling its gap up. Its getting closer.

Update 4:40PM: One of my very favorite yield counts. Quietly building pressure to break back upwards. The FED does not control rates as much as they think they do. "Rates to be low til 2014". And you know the amazing thing? Not one soul has even questioned this. Not even EWI as they are "enamored" with US treasuries too much in my opinion.

I say its bunk and a "top-tick" moment so-to-speak. I dare say rates may go up quicker than anyone can imagine. I can imagine it.

You know what? Both Stocks and Bonds are overvalued by far in my opinion.

ORIGINAL POST
The best count has the SPX and Wilshire5000 near the top of wave iii of (c) of [y] of Minor 2 up. Minor 2 up cannot make a new high above the 2011 high. I use the Wilshire 5000 for arbitration purposes. The SPX should also not make a new high.

Prices maintained above the 1296-1307 support range and it was suggested that if this zone can be used as support, prices are free to make a move higher. So far that is exactly what has happened.

Wilshire has the best form. Comprising some 5000 stocks and practically the entire market, it is probably the best index to use for counting waves.

SPX is almost always identical count to the Wilshire. I'll keep putting up an "ALT 2" as there are enough waves and price and sentiment and technicals to say Minor 2 may be over. But its not the best count at the moment. Wave iii "looks" better for now.

Again using the Wilshire keeping an eye on the upper down-sloping trendline from 2011:

VIX closed that big gap finally:

E-minis

2012-01-25T05:38:00.000-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 January 2012 [Update 8:15PM]

2012-01-24T16:24:00.003-05:00

Update 8:15 PM: Double long term divergence of Price-Volume-Trend of the DJIA.

Update 6:22PM: For those who think the DJIA can "never" fall below "such and such", I present two charts that should make you realize that indeed declines can and do happen.

China:

Japan's long term count and it doesn't appear to be over just yet.

And a closer inspection of the last few years:

Its got that (W) - (X) - (Y) look about it with the ol' tricky triangle (descending in this case) in the final wave (Y) position.

Update 5:05PM: Apple is due at least another wave up. Pretty gosh darn exuberant in A/H's.

Last week, the NY Times came out with a damaging article against Apple. Apple is clearly at the "top of its game". The huge gaudy profits reaped on the backs of near slave labor has finally gotten some major media attention. And now this quarters numbers are downright obscene.

When your at the top, you have nowhere to go but down. And Apple has no control over their products anymore.

Here is one such scenario for those who forget that we live in a real world:
If China were to say, invade Taiwan, and things got dicey with the U.S., and embargoes started to occur, what do you think would happen to Apple's stock price?

Or how about this:
Steve Jobs was the true engine of Apple. Apple's product line stales. The moat is not that wide in the "gadgets" category. Social mood declines and Apple's pricey gadgets suffer sales.

Either way, this chart is a very mature chart. Stocks don't go up forever folks. And on the technical side, OBV is a warning. After all, who doesn't own Apple already?

Exuberance is how a top should be and clearly everyone is exuberant on Apple tonight.

ORIGINAL POST
Today's gap down was the second serious test of the resistance - now-turning into support - zone of approx 1295-1307. Prices responded with a steady rally.

Therefore the alternate chart posted in yesterday's update appears to be moving front and center. Bears need a 5 wave pattern down for a confirmation of a trend change. From yesterday's high to today's low counts best as a corrective zigzag, not an impulse.

Wilshire hourly:

E-minis

2012-01-24T05:22:00.000-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 January 2012 [Update 9:03PM]

2012-01-23T16:42:00.002-05:00

Update 9:03PM: Dollar long term weekly chart is in excellent position to eventually take off in a Primary wave 3 of (3) of primary [1] of cycle wave III up.

As a side discussion, I always ask myself why people conclude the dollar will collapse as more and more bonds are issued. Would not the bonds themselves collapse first? And if the bonds collapse first, would that not make the dollar attractive?

Nobody ever seems to think this thing through. But if they (Fed, corporations, government, etc) keep issuing more and more debt, sooner or later interest rates will go up as supply overwhelms the current Ponzi schemes in place (shuffle-the-money-between-empty-pockets-game). And since the entire corporate/governmental bond scheme is leveraged beyond hope, any significant rise in interest rates will cause massive bond defaults. This will cause a demand in payment in dollars.

And if the credit bubble finally busts once and for all (which it will), then the dollar should do pretty well as there will not be inflation, but deflation.

Regardless, the long term dollar chart is in excellent position although I think this wave [ii] pullback needs to cover that gap up.

Update 8:37PM: Via Sentiment Trader, the CSFB "Fear" barometer is an example of how things are getting toward a bullish extreme, but may have more room to run and even diverge prior to a top.

The indicator chart is not quite at the 28 - 30 level where the last 4 price peaks in 2011 occurred. (But it need not be of course!) Note the barometer topped out just before prices in each case with the 1370 top having the largest time between top-out and actual price high.

An extrapolated conclusion here is the CSFB Fear barometer for instance might move into the 28-30 zone and peak just prior to prices peaking. It will probably take even higher prices to produce those final moves on the baromoter. So that may support a Minor 2 topping in the 1334-1356 range. Not what bears want to hear, but its just an educated guess based on this top alt chart(s) I posted tonight.

Also note how the pullbacks toward 1158 SPX and 1202 SPX, the barometer fell quickly to the 18 - 19 range levels and was suggesting the current rally legs in each case.

Update 7:38PM: Here is the top alternate count in which bears get skewered slowly for a few more weeks. Note that, like many bear market rally waves of any size since 2009, the wave one is the proposed longest wave. This count wave v projection happens to coincide with 1346-1347 SPX.

Keys to the count is 1) major support holds (lets say above 1295-1300 SPX to be charitable) 2) wave channel holds.

Update 6:45PM: Dollar still has that big gap up. A closure of it would make for a nice wave 2 to form a huge series of ones' and twos'.

Update 5:10PM: Here is that SPX chart posted again to get a better look at internals. Also note that this count is invalid if prices get higher than 1325.6 as wave iii can never be the shortest.

ORIGINAL POST
There are a few areas I would like to hone in:

1295-1307 RESISTANCE ZONE
1292 - 1309 represents the buffer zone for the 1300 SPX level.

It was surmised that Minor wave 2 up would more or less "die" in this resistance zone and that it would not be held for support in which to launch another series of assaults on higher prices further above. Today was the first serious test of that price zone as support.

As is often the case, to take a major resistance zone such as this, prices lurch high above and then come back down to test the top of the zone for support. Today was the first serious test of this zone and it held as support.

If this resistance zone fails to support prices, then prices are likely starting Minor 3 down. See SPX squiggle count below.

If this resistance zone successfully supports prices, then prices are free to lurch ever higher toward previous pivots such as 1347 SPX. See Wilshire squiggle count below.

CHANNELING
The current wave up starting at 1202 SPX is in a channel up. As long as this channel remains in place, one has to respect the potential for higher prices. Once the channel breaks, we can surmise the wave structure - as far as from 1202 SPX start point - is struggling for either a significant local top or of course something far more substantial.such as Minor 2. So far the channel is well intact.

SQUIGGLE COUNTS
The first count supposes that Minor 2 is very nearly over and that "support" (and the channel) will soon fail. UPDATE: It would need to fail pronto for this count to be valid as wave iii can never be the shortest.

The second count implies that prices will hold support and work their way higher. In this instance, I used the Wilshire 5000 to show the top alternate count. Minor 2 would finish much higher, with a preliminary target zone of 14000 - 14100. Note that the May 2011 top occurred at Wilshire 14,562. So 14000 can still be considered a wave 2.

E-minis

2012-01-22T21:18:00.000-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 January 2012 [Update 5:14PM]

2012-01-20T16:52:00.001-05:00

Update 5:14PM: Update on the apex situation. It is met today. These things are usually accurate within 1 day if they work. So we'll know by Tuesday if its valid.

Also note the SPY chart down in the original post shows the 50 DMA crossing the 200 DMA in a "bullish" manner. No doubt this is viewed as a universally bullish event. A pop up Monday would "cross" the lines yet with the 200 DMA in a "flat" mode at best, you never know how the algos will react.

ORIGINAL POST
Price action is cementing bullish sentiment to extreme levels on various indicators as was expected.

Last few weeks it was suggested that the resistance zone from 1295 to roughly 1307 would be the "breaking" area for Minor 2. After slicing through resistance in a low volume melt up this week, prices have indeed managed to stay above this zone and use it as support for a day or so. Price finished near the high this week for maximum punishment to bears. Now the bulls are looking to keep plowing prices higher. A continuing melt up will only end bad in my opinion.

Market internals are indeed waning and getting weaker with each stab upward. We have seen this before and what takes the market 6-7 weeks in gains is wiped out in less than 1 week or even a few days. Recall the flash crash in May of 2010 was under similar melt up situation in which sentiment was extreme, volume was low, and everyone was just "watching" after a certain point.

Only this time around the "authorities", in their infinite wisdom, have implemented circuit breakers which will only aggravate the situation should it happen again. Imagine a 1200 point DOW plunge and they stop trading. Part of the reason the market recovered that day was the roller-coaster effect. Imagine a roller coaster that is purposely stopped at the bottom of a drop-off. When its turned back on what energy will it have to make it up the next incline? Stopping the market may induce an even greater liquidity lockup.

But I am getting ahead of things and thinking out loud here.

Lets go to the best squiggle count:

SPY gap is closed:

VIX closed beneath its BB and challenging the open gap. Thats good to have those pesky gaps closed.

A follow-up on yesterday's MUB chart. Bearish engulfing on high volume. Its a bearish setup. A severe municipal bond sell-off will probably not be a viewed as a "bullish" long term event.

Now the DJIA has closed above its BB. How many are convinced the DJIA is making a higher (intraday) high than 2011 soon? I would bet that sentiment is now widespread and very high in that it will. My take is that it won't and will still be a wave 2.

E-minis

2012-01-20T04:52:00.001-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 January 2012 [Update 5:14PM]

2012-01-19T16:54:00.000-05:00

Update 5:24PM: The market has a way of always catching the majority off-guard. As all eyes have been fixed on Europe for well many months now, I have a feeling the good ol' USA is about to take its turn again in the spotlight. The automatic debt ceiling raise will soon occur. How appropriate would it be to see bonds sell very hard off and everyone do a ? In fact thats my call here. I think TLT is in a major topping process and is on the cusp of breaking down violently.

Update 5:12PM: MUB painted an interesting candle today again on volume.

ORIGINAL POST
The upper bollinger band on the Wilshire 5000 today was breached. If thats what the market wanted to do, it did it.

SPY had its breakaway gap down challenged and pretty much closed. If thats what the market wanted to do, it did it.

There is an interesting APEX point that will be reached tomorrow. Perhaps it was met today. Oftentimes these APEX points mark major turns. In this case Minor 2 would be topping.

Waves i, iii and v connect cleanly on a channel as does ii and iv. Despite the market meltup, there is no need yet to even alter this count at even the subminuette level (black). Again, 1277 is a "control" for now. Note also again waning up volume, etc.

The daily VIX bollinger bands are getting tight. Yet there is an open gap just below. If the market means to close it, then it hasn't done so yet. And yeah the whole VIX looks like a giant falling bullish - bullish for volatility - wedge.

SENTIMENT DATA:
Sentiment data is hitting extremes on all time scales. I'll show some update charts tonight as data rolls in.

There is no use in pondering other wave counts. Minor 2 has the freedom to retrace as high as it needs as long as its not 100%. SPX is about 80% so its a moot point now.

But I said this was going to be a powerful wave 2 as a Zweig Breadth Thrust event was triggered in October.

Then it was suggested a double zigzag would occur due to time factors. But double zigzags usually only occur due to price factors. It seems both were in play. Simply put, 1292 SPX was not a high enough price on the first zigzag. Now the second zigzag has carried prices higher. How high? One wonders if the market will just squeak out a break of Prechter's 1360 "Stop". It has been cruel that way. But even if 1360.04 is the Minor 2 high, it would still qualify as Minor 2.

And thats about my take on things.

E-minis

2012-01-19T05:35:00.001-05:00

Volume has been dropping.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 January 2012 [Update 5PM]

2012-01-18T16:30:00.002-05:00

[Update 5PM: The dollar looks like it wedged. There is still that pesky gap down below.

ORIGINAL POST
(c) = (a) @ 1310.77 SPX within zigzag [y] of Minor 2 up. On the Wilshire 5000 (c) = (a) @ 13,783. 13,783 is a long-term important price zone.

Sentiment measures are no doubt screaming today on short, medium and intermediate time frames.

Lets go to the best case counts:

Wilshire squiggles:

Long term Wilshire5000 shows a key resistance zone:

Current hourly Wilshire:

Double long term negative divergence exists on the NYAD.

Even Apple has a potentially complete wave count in place:

What about the banks? Are they now tipping their hands in leading down a bit?

DJIA upon the long-term line from 2007 top:

Up close look at the same lines:

It may just all come down to a simple SPY gap challenge/close:

SPX daily. The apex is coming up tomorrow perhaps.

E-minis

2012-01-18T05:23:00.001-05:00

Huge buying volume spike.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 January 2012

2012-01-17T16:34:00.000-05:00

There are again enough squiggles in place to consider Minor 2 complete. 1277 is a key price marker for the bearish case.

Intraday count of the micro waves may reveal a slight truncation.

Daily candles shows a potential shooting star.

E-minis

2012-01-17T06:50:00.001-05:00

E-minis

2012-01-16T05:32:00.001-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 January 2012

2012-01-13T16:06:00.003-05:00

Best guess squiggle count below. We'll assume Minor 2 has not yet topped.

1265 is the key pivot. A close below that would be bearish.

E-minis

2012-01-13T05:32:00.001-05:00

Long weekend with Monday a holiday for the US stock market. The bulls would like to end the week at the high of week.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 January 2012

2012-01-12T16:41:00.002-05:00

The premise of a Minor 2 count retrace is that its price should be stopped in the resistance zone of 1295-1307. That doesn't mean prices won't pop higher than 1307, its just that this zone will not be successfully used for "support" again. It should fail to re-conquer this zone and use it as a launch for higher prices. That is my firm opinion based on the wave count, technicals and sentiment measures. I am basically saying if this is Minor 2, then the price must stop in this general area.

So far the market keeps making stabs into the zone, even closing higher today.

The best squiggle count is probably something like this below. There are some nice Fibonacci relationships with this count.

The Industrials are starting to under-perform perhaps. That is probably required as they have retraced quite a bit more than the other indexes.

The Wilshire - the total market - shows a very long-term resistance line that is a bit different than the SPX and DJIA.

I don't know if it can make it that high, but it should prove formidable if it does.

Wilshire hourly shows the long term resistance.

E-minis

2012-01-12T05:36:00.000-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 January 2012

2012-01-11T16:49:00.000-05:00

Unless prices collapse starting sometime tomorrow, the idea of an ending diagonal count does not appear to be panning out.

Instead today's price action appears to signal the market wants a shot at breaking the heavy resistance layer starting at 1295 SPX going up through around 1307 SPX.

Wave 2's do not want to be wave 2's, no matter what the size. Part of wave 2's personality is that they wish to be true bull waves. And true bull waves do not retrace partially - they make multi-year market highs.

But the nature of waves 2's, being what they are, is that they must be stopped by resistance within the retrace. This is a wave 2's logical nature. After all, if all resistance layers of wave one down were "reconquered" - then it wouldn't be a wave 2 would it? This seems elementary thinking but its a useful reminder that if this is wave 2, then somewhere its price rise will be stopped short of a 100% retrace.

This Minor wave 2 is a powerful wave 2. Remember it triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust event in early October which is a rare signal.

The biggest resistance layer left over from wave 1's downdraft from 1370 - 1074 is the current 1295 - 1307 resistance zone. Minor 2 has worked hard to just get back in position to try and recapture this zone and turn it into support once again. It has expended a lot of buying power to get here. And now it may want its shot at re-taking it.

Lately we have seen how futures manage to work overnight and gap up over pesky resistance zones as of late. 1267 and 1285 were 2 such minor zones. It took a bit of work but the morning futures gap worked like a charm.

1295-1307 is a much harder and deeper layer. A gap over this - if the market has enough left - is going to take all that it has to just get over it. And then it has to be held as support. This is equally important. It can pop its head above resistance briefly, but if it gets swarmed back down, things can reverse.

So Minor 1 chopped off 20% of the market in a nasty downturn and left people rattled. Minor 2 wishes to constructively erase that bad price action - and not be a wave 2. So it has reached the ultimate challenge zone.

My take is that this zone is roughly where the market will fail and Minor 2 price will be stopped. The SPX has already stabbed once into the zone yesterday at 1296. Not much of a stab. It backtested the 1285 area twice this morning and meandered the rest of the day trying to position itself for another shot to get through the zone.

Minor 2 does not have much time to attempt this resistance zone assault. It is on shaky technical and sentiment ground. It still has a gaping gap up in the e-mini futures unfilled and other gaps. It has expended a lot of energy in just getting here. It had to gap up over the last 2 minor resistance zones just to get here.

The squiggle count is messy. If the ED is not valid, then the next best count is probably something like this:

CONCLUSION:
Wave theory holds that Minor 2 can never 100 % retrace. Wave theory holds that Minor 2 must be stopped in price at some spot. My take is that the 1295-1307 resistance zone will break Minor 2's back. Maybe price can pop a bit higher to say 1310, but if this is wave 2 - then gosh darnit - this is the area it logically gets stopped. At what exact price and time will work itself out.

It has already had one stab into the zone - so the minimum has been met. But this market, being the stubborn market, doesn't ever seem to roll over nice and easy. It fights tooth and nail. And why wouldn't it? Once Minor 3 down begins - it ushers in the beginning of the end of the Ponzi bubble in my count.

E-minis

2012-01-11T05:23:00.000-05:00

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 January 2012 [Update 8:30PM]

2012-01-10T17:07:00.000-05:00

Update 8:30PM: FTSE has not confirmed the DJIA.

Update 8:03PM: Via the always excellent Sentiment Trader, here are some updated longer-term sentiment charts that support the notion of Minor 2 beginning a topping process:

"Intermediate" proprietary:

Composite. Even the 21 day MA is getting more mature. This is one indicator I said probably needed to recover prior to Minor 3 down. It has.

CSFB "Fear Barometer". This is one I watched during the selloff to 1158 SPX. Note how the indicator responded to that selloff. It was signalling the rally ever since.

For good measure, here is the Credit Default Swap indicator. Yes, risk on indeed.

"Smart Money Index". Note how it also went up during the selloff to 1158 SPX. This confirmed the CSFB Fear barometer and also signaled the rally that progressed ever since. But now? The smart money has been selling the rally recently.

And for some variety, here is the SPY liquidity premium. All 3 moving averages reaching bullish extremes.

And to round it out, the put/call ratio, equity-detrended.

CONCLUSION:

These various sentiment charts taken by themselves do not predict an exact turn, but collectively they suggest there is a great deal more risk for downside for equity prices than upside gains.

Some will surely respond, "But look at how your indicators responded from 2009 to the high in 2011, they just kept getting overbought, etc etc as prices went up."

That is a fair criticism however the market had been breaking out to higher highs particularly the breakout from 1219 to 1370 in Intermediate (C) of P[2] up. Since then, there was a 5 wave down move followed by a 3 wave correction. In the context of a wave 2 retrace, one cannot expect the same behavior of ignoring overbought conditions. In fact, one can expect the opposite. That high sentiment on a shaky technical three-wave "A-B-C" corrective structure foundation is a very good setup for a huge wave 3 down. That is the how sentiment data is supposed to tie in with wave counting.

The "troll" meter also was maxing out today which is another good sign for bears. This despite this was one of the few EW blogs that had a general bias toward topping 1292 SPX again as a minimum ina double zigzag count. I may have wavered a bit from time to time on that - particularly when support was broke on the selloff to 1158 SPX, but generally this blog has stuck to its gun on that principle and was proven correct.

One reason is adhering better to sentiment indicators such as the ones above. The SMI and CFSB charts caused extreme caution on the selloff to 1158. Even the CFSB chart I posted on 14 December was still too low and was signalling at least a wave (c) of [y] up. It proved correct. Now these charts are hinting that the price runup may soon be over - or is over.

ORIGINAL POST
The SPX finally made a higher high above 1292 and actually closed above it. The Wilshire5000 has not confirmed its high from 2 months ago.

There are enough subwaves in place to complete a double zigzag count to consider Minor 2 complete or almost complete.

There are a few variations on the squiggles but all imply the same thing: Minor 2 is swiftly coming to an end.

If the ending diagonal count is true, then a dramatic reversal to the downside is coming soon likely tomorrow.

The Advancers:decliners indicator support this view on the 10 minute scale:

Wave i peaked at 13 on its "kickoff"
Wave iii peaked at 10 on its kickoff.
Wave v peaked at only 8 today's opening.

So each stab up is less and less internally which is supportive of an ending diagonal.

Of course the alternate is that its not an ending diagonal and the market it free to run a bit more where it must:

Another variation. It channels nicely and i - iii and ii - iv connect on the channel lines. v would end in the middle line.

SPX hourly:

Wilshire hourly shows non-confirmation:

NYAD new highs shows a double divergence. My interpretation is that this is a bearish configuration. And I can quote Richard Russell on this I believe. This double non-confirmation has been in existence for 8 months which gives it a lot of weight.

DOW Theory:

I'll add some sentiment charts later tonight to support the overall picture that Minor 3 down is fast approaching.

CONCLUSION:
Minor 2 up is finishing up its wave structure. At what exact price level and time is an educated EW guess at this moment. This is why we count the waves.

Internals are certainly supportive of a market that is on shaky ground. Total volume has dried up including today. Each upward thrust is less than the last. We have a long-standing double non-confirmation in the NYAD chart and this shows a market that is buying and buying and not having prices confirm this HFT grinding.

In 2007, you had prices floating higher and the NYAD refusing to confirm. In my opinion the setup for a major down wave in 2012 is a bit different. Algos are grinding advancing stocks higher but prices are lagging and not confirming overall.

From a sentiment standpoint, many or most of all the short, medium and intermediate sentiment level indicators and such are near, approaching or above bullish extremes. Taken in the context of a Minor 2 retrace, this is a bearish configuration sentiment-wise. I'll show some examples tonight as data gets updated.

If the market is not in an ending diagonal (c) of [y] of 2 - thats fine - it just means it will take a bit longer for Minor 3 to arrive and it may grind out a few more percent up in the next days/week(s). The Minor 3 count down is my opinion of course. I respect the market and I respect that it is never wrong.

Overall, the thought that a second zigzag [y] - which was dreamed up in October due to lack of time - should finish higher than 1292 proved correct. Now that the market is "here", we have to let things finish out as they always do one way or another.

This blog has maintained a slightly "bullish" bias for the past few months because of double zigzag price guidelines. Now that it has been met, this blog is on the lookout for Minor 3 down. A close under 1257 would confirm.