Danton Verdict

Lima Persiapan Menjadi Investor Reksadana Tahun 2014 (By: Rudiyanto - Head of Operation and Business Development PT. Panin Asset Management)

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Mon, 06 Jan 2014 03:05:00 +0000

Berikut ini adalah 5 hal yang harus dicermati oleh investor agar siap menjadi investor reksa dana pada tahun 2014:

1. Tapering Off oleh The Fed

Kebijakan pengurangan stimulus secara bertahap memang menjadi salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan penurunan bursa pada tahun 2013. Sebelum kebijakan ini diumumkan asing secara bertahap menarik portofolio investasinya di Negara berkembang termasuk di Indonesia.

Per tahun 2013, data menunjukkan posisi net buy sell sudah – 25 triliun lebih. Artinya jumlah investasi yang ditarik bukan hanya dana yang masuk pada tahun ini saja, tapi juga dana yang ditarik pada investasi tahun-tahun sebelumnya.

Apakah hal ini berarti investor sudah mengantisipasi tapering yang lebih besar? Bisa jadi, sebagai informasi sejak isu digulirkan, pasar memprediksikan pengurangan sebesar 10 – 20 Milliar USD. Pada saat diumumkan baru dilakukan sebesar 10 Milliar USD. Dengan demikian, kondisi IHSG sekarang bisa dikatakan sudah mencerminkan kondisi tapering dalam skala yang lebih besar.

Rasa-rasanya tidak mungkin juga asing menarik “seluruh” investasi dari Indonesia mengingat tidak semua investasi dilakukan menggunakan dana stimulus, dan Indonesia sendiri masih merupakan tujuan investasi yang menarik dengan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang termasuk tinggi dibandingkan Negara lain.

Pengurangan stimulus (tapering) ini bisa dilihat dari 2 sisi, pertama berkurangnya dana untuk investasi bursa. Di sisi lain, terjadi pemulihan di Amerika Serikat sebagai ekonomi terbesar di dunia. Terjadinya pemulihan pada akhirnya akan merangsang konsumsi dan permintaan ekspor dari Negara berkembang seperti Indonesia.

2. Pajak Obligasi Pada Reksa Dana

Di luar hal yang bersifat makro ekonomi, permasalahan pajak pada reksa dana juga menjadi perhatian sebagian besar investor. Dalam peraturan pemerintah no 16 tahun 2009, disebutkan bahwa atas penghasilan berupa bunga (kupon) dan atau diskonto obligasi yang diterima oleh reksa dana dikenakan pajak penghasilan 0% dari tahun 2009 – 2010, kemudian 5% untuk tahun 2011 – 2013 dan baru 15% (normal) pada tahun 2014 dan seterusnya.

Pemerintah dalam hal ini Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) memang berkomitmen untuk memperjuangkan keringanan pajak reksa dana dengan tetap memberlakukan besaran pajak sebesar 5% hingga 2020, namun hingga artikel ini ditulis, belum ada peraturan resmi terkait hal tersebut. Mudah-mudahan pada saat artikel ini dipublikasikan, hal tersebut sudah terealisasi.

Namun yang saya cermati, ada sebagian investor yang salah dalam menerjemahkan peraturan perpajakan ini. Sebagian malah mengira reksa dana yang sebelumnya bukan objek pajak, malah akan dikenakan pajak pada tahun 2014.

Perlu diluruskan bahwa yang dibahas dalam peraturan ini adalah hasil investasi reksa dana di obligasi. Artinya sebagai orang-perseorangan, ketika berinvestasi di obligasi, atas penghasilan kupon dikenakan pajak 15%. Namun jika peraturan tersebut berhasil diwujudkan, maka jika reksa dana membeli obligasi, penghasilan kupon yang diterima hanya dikenakan pajak 5%. Hal ini akan membuat reksa dana lebih menarik karena mampu menghasilkan imbal hasil yang lebih tinggi.

3. Kondisi Inflasi dan Suku Bunga

Ada 2 hal yang menyebabkan kenaikan suku bunga pada tahun 2013. Pertama, imbas kenaikan harga BBM dan kenaikan beberapa harga barang kebutuhan hidup pada tahun lalu seperti harga daging sapi, kedelai dan cabe. Kedua, kondisi defisit neraca perdagangan membuat pemerintah ingin memperlambat laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan harapan dapat menekan laju impor.

Secara historis dan teoritis, kenaikan suku bunga berefek negatif terhadap pasar saham dan obligasi dan sebaliknya ketika kondisi suku bunga turun, efeknya sangat positif. Oleh karena itu, apakah tahun 2014 suku bunga bisa turun atau tidak.

Mengacu ke pengalaman sebelumnya, efek inflasi akan mereda 1 tahun setelah terjadi kenaikan BBM. Dengan demikian, diperkirakan pada bulan Juli atau Agustus tahun depan, inflasi bisa menurun sehingga suku bunga berpeluang turun.

Sementara untuk kondisi Current Account Defisit (CAD), meski belum bisa pulih dengan cepat, namun kondisi terburuk sudah lewat. Diperkirakan permintaan ekspor bisa meningkat pada tahun depan karena pelemahan Rupiah dan Negara importir besar seperti Amerika dan Uni Eropa juga akan memasuki masa pemulihan.

4. PEMILU dan Pilpres 2014

Meski PEMILU dan Pilpres menjadi kekhawatiran, saya malah menemukan suatu statistik yang menarik tentang kinerja IHSG di tahun Pemilihan Umum. Pada tahun PEMILU tahun 1999, IHSG naik 70.06%. Kemudian pada tahun 2004 yang menganut PEMILU dan Pilpres, IHSG kembali naik 44.56%. Tahun 2009 juga menjadi tahun yang gemilang untuk bursa karena naik 86.98%.

Dalam 3 periode PEMILU yang terakhir yang juga dilingkupi dengan ketidakpastian, ternyata IHSG mengalami kenaikan yang cukup signifikan. Saya menduga, hal ini disebabkan karena kekhawatiran yang berlebihan, investor memilih wait and see.

Setelah pemenangnya sudah bisa dipastikan, investor mendapatkan kepastian sehingga bisa menjalankan kegiatan investasinya. Hal ini yang menurut saya membuat kenaikan IHSG cukup tinggi di tahun PEMILU. Meski demikian, perlu diingat bahwa kinerja masa lalu tidak menjadi acuan akan kembali terulang di masa mendatang.

5. Valuasi dan Kinerja Emiten

Sebagai investor yang berbasis value investing, faktor valuasi merupakan hal yang penting. Untuk kinerja emiten 2014, diperkirakan tidak akan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan kinerja pada tahun 2014 karena kebijakan perlambatan ekonomi yang diambil oleh pemerintah.

Tingkat kenaikan laba bersih perusahaan yang berkisar antara 15% – 20% per tahun mungkin akan turun menjadi sekitar 12% – 15% pada tahun depan. Namun di satu sisi, pergerakan IHSG sudah stagnan selama 2013.

Dengan asumsi kinerja IHSG akan mencerminkan kenaikan laba bersih perusahaan yang terkandung di dalamnya, maka logikanya IHSG akan menyesuaikan kenaikan laba bersih 15% – 20% di tahun 2013 dan kenaikan 12% – 15% di tahun 2014. Berdasarkan asumsi tersebut, saya cukup optimistis kenaikan IHSG bisa naik minimal 20% pada tahun kuda ini. Untuk obligasi, apabila terjadi penurunan tingkat suku bunga, potensi kenaikan juga bisa di atas 10%.

Demikian artikel ini semoga bermanfaat bagi anda untuk lebih siap dalam menjadi investor reksa dana di tahun 2014 ini.

Sumber: http://rudiyanto.blog.kontan.co.id/2014/01/02/5-persiapan-menjadi-investor-reksa-dana-2014/#more-4014

Attitude

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 09:33:00 +0000

The longer I live, the more I realized

Will influence attitudes in the life

Attitude is more important than knowledge, rather than money, than an opportunity, rather than failures, than successes, than whatever may be said or done somebody.

Attitude is more important

than appearance, gift, or skill.

The most amazing thing is we have the option to generate the attitude we have on that day.

We can not change the past

We can not change people's behavior

We can not change what would happen

One thing we can change

is one thing we can control, and that is our attitude.

I am increasingly convinced that life is

10 percent of what is actually happening to us, and 90 percent is how we deal with it attitude.

Finally: All the choice lies in your hands, there is no IF or BUT. You're the driver. You decide ... YOUR WAY OF LIFE!

Reksadana Indeks Versus ETF

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 04:21:00 +0000

ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) merupakan wahana investasi yang relatif baru di negeri kita ini. Produk ETF yang ada saat ini ada dua, yaitu ABF IBI Fund dan Premier ETF LQ-45. ABF IBI Fund menggunakan portfolio indeks obligasi sebagai patokan sedangkan Premier ETF LQ-45 menggunakan indeks LQ-45 sebagai indeks patokan.

Sebelum ETF muncul, kita telah terlebih dahulu mengenal reksa dana indeks, yaitu Danareksa Indeks Syariah. Reksa dana ini menggunakan indeks JII (Jakarta Islamic Index) sebagai acuan. Baik ETF maupun reksa dana indeks berusaha menirukan kinerja dari indeks acuannya. Lalu apa perbedaan keduanya?

Reksa Dana Indeks

Reksa dana indeks adalah reksa dana yang portfolionya terdiri atas saham-saham penyusun indeks tertentu. Proporsi kepemilikan saham oleh reksa dana indeks sebisa mungkin disamakan dengan komposisi indeks acuan tersebut sehingga diharapkan kinerjanya akan menyamai kinerja indeks acuan.

Proses pembentukan reksa dana indeks sama dengan reksa dana pada umumnya. Mari kita perhatikan gambar berikut:

Manajer investasi akan membeli saham-saham di pasar sampai dengan komposisinya menyamai indeks. Tentu saja dalam perjalanannya nanti akan terjadi sedikit perbedaan kinerja dengan indeks acuan. Perbedaan ini disebut dengan tracking error. Setiap beberapa bulan sekali, manajer investasi akan menata ulang portfolionya untuk meminimalisasi tracking error ini. Manajer investasi kemudian menjual membeli unit penyertaan kepada para investor.

Pembelian reksa dana indeks sama dengan reksa dana pada umumnya. Kita dapat membelinya di agen penjual reksa dana atau langsung ke manajer investasinya. Begitu juga jika kita ingin menjual unit reksa dana kita. NAB reksa dana indeks dapat kita lihat setelah berakhirnya sesi perdagangan harian.

Karena reksa dana indeks memerlukan pengawasan yang relatif sedikit, maka management fee untuk MI biasanya cukup rendah. Untuk Danareksa Indeks Syariah, management fee tahunan maksimal 0.3% dari NAB. Biaya ini jauh lebih murah dibandingkan dengan biaya pengelolaan reksa dana saham biasa yang bisa mencapai 2.5% per tahun.

ETF

Pada tulisan ini, saya hanya akan membahas mengenai ETF saham karena memiliki underlying portfolio yang saham dengan reksa dana indeks yaitu saham.

Hampir sama dengan reksa dana indeks, ETF berusaha untuk mereplikasi indeks tertentu agar kinerjanya sama dengan indeks acuan tersebut. Pembentukan ETF berbeda dengan reksa dana indeks. Mari kita perhatikan gambar berikut:

Dealer partisipan akan membeli saham-saham di pasar dengan komposisi yang saham dengan indeks acuan sampai dengan jumlah tertentu. Saham-saham yang telah dibeli ini kemudian ditukarkan dengan unit kreasi yang dibuat oleh manajer investasi ETF. Setelah memiliki unit kreasi yang dimiliki oleh dealer partisipan dapat disimpan sendiri atau dijual ke pasar setelah dipecah-pecah dalam bentuk unit penyertaan. Satuan penjualan di pasar adalah lot (500 unit penyertaan).

Jadi, perbedaan pertama antara ETF dengan reksa dana indeks adalah bagaimana cara pembentukannya. Pada ETF, yang berhak untuk bertransaksi dengan manajer investasi hanyalah dealer partisipan yang sering disebut juga dengan market maker.

Sama halnya dengan reksa dana indeks, pengelolaan ETF juga bersifat pasif sehingga management fee nya pun relatif rendah jika dibandingkan dengan reksa dana saham pada umumnya.

Perbedaan kedua adalah pihak yang menjual dan membeli unit penyertaan. Investor ETF hanya dapat membeli dan menjual unit penyertaan dari investor lain melalui pasar sekunder. Proses transaksinya sama persis dengan transaksi saham. Jadi saat membeli atau menjual unit penyertaan, kita tidak dikenai subscribe atau redeem fee melainkan komisi broker yang jumlanya bervariasi antara 0.2%-0.3% untuk pembelian dan 0.3%-0.4% untuk penjualan. Kesimpulannya untuk dapat berinvestasi di ETF, kita harus terdaftar sebagai nasabah suatu sekuritas.

Perbedaan ketiga adalah penetapan harga unit penyertaan. Jika pada reksa dana indeks, NAV nya ditentukan berdasarkan nilai wajar dari aset yang dimilikinya, maka pada ETF, harganya tidak harus sama dengan NAV nya. Di samping itu, harga ETF akan diupdate secara kontinyu selama perdagangan di pasar berlangsung. Hal ini berbeda dengan reksa dana indeks di mana NAV nya hanya dapat kita ketahui 1 kali setiap harinya yaitu saat perdagangan di pasar telah berakhir. Harga unit penyertaan ETF ditentukan oleh transaksi antar investor di pasar.

Perbedaan keempat adalah periode settlement. Jika kita ingin membeli reksa dana indeks, kita harus menyediakan dananya terlebih dahulu. Jika kita membeli ETF, kita tidak harus memiliki dananya saat itu juga, akan tetapi diberi waktu hingga 3 hari setelah transaksi (T+3). Adanya perbedaan ini disebabkan karena ETF diperlakukan sama dengan saham yang memiliki periode settlement 3 hari.
Walaupun terdapat beberapa perbedaan, ETF dan reksa dana indeks memiliki persamaan:

Portfolionya mengacu pada suatu indeks tertentu

Biaya pengelolaan yang relatif rendah

Lalu mana yang kita pilih?Jika kita adalah investor pasif, maka baik ETF maupun reksa dana indeks sama saja. Namun jika kita adalah investor aktif, maka ETF merupakan pilihan yang lebih baik karena dapat diperdagangkan secara real-time tanpa harus menunggu berakhirnya sesi perdagangan. Baik ETF maupun reksa dana menawarkan satu keunggulan yaitu memiliki kinerja yang menyamai indeks acuan dengan biaya pengelolaan rendah.

Namun ada hal lain yang harus kita perhatikan. Saat ini volume perdagangan ETF sangat rendah sehingga mengakibatkan lebarnya spread (perbedaan) antara harga bid dan offer di pasar. FYI, ’bid’ adalah harga yang kita dapatkan jika ingin menjual ETF saat itu juga sedangkan ’offer’ adalah harga yang kita dapatkan jika kita ingin membeli ETF saat itu juga.

Selain itu, karena tidak ada keharusan bahwa harga unit penyertaan ETF sama dengan NAV nya, maka terkadang terdapat perbedaan yang cukup besar antara harga dengan NAV nya. Jika kita jeli, maka kita dapat memanfaatkannya dengan membeli ETF jika harganya di bawah NAB dan menjualnya jika harganya lebih tinggi dari NAV nya. FYI, NAV ETF seharusnya sama dengan nilai indeks acuannya.

Hal yang serupa dapat pula dilakukan oleh dealer partisipan untuk menambah keuntungan. Saat harga ETF lebih tinggi daripada indeks acuan, maka dealer partisipan akan membeli saham-saham penyusun portfolio ETF di pasar dan kemudian menjual unit kreasi yang dimilikinya kepada manajer investasi ETF. Demikian pula jika harga ETF lebih rendah daripada indeks acuannya, maka dealer partisipan dapat menjual saham-saham penyusun portfolio ETF dan menggunakan dana yang didapat untuk membeli unit kreasi dari manajer investasi ETF. Tindakan ini disebut dengan arbitrage.

Demikian sedikit paparan mengenai ETF dan reksa dana indeks. Selamat berinvestasi!

Source : www.parahita.wordpress.com

Indonesian Outlook 2013 from Econophysics Perspective

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 01:04:00 +0000

Indonesian Outlook 2013 from bandungfe

Kolaborasi

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 22:50:00 +0000

Dahulu setiap pebisnis berusaha mencari lokasi yang jauh dari kompetitor. Namun, sekarang para pebisnis yang ada dalam satu industri berlomba untuk berkumpul bersama di sebuah sentra usaha. Maka sekarang kita lihat seperti sentra bisnis dengan produk atau jasa spesifik dan sejenis, ada sentra bisnis produk elektronik, pusat perdagangan tektil, sentra kuliner, bahkan sudah mulai ada sentra jasa lawyer yang berdampingan bersama-sama.

Orang tak takut lagi bersaing dengan tetangga, justru hidup berdampingan secara sehat. Dengan kata lain, orang tak sibuk lagi berkompetisi, tetapi dengan senang hati ingin berkolaborasi. Para pelaku bisnis tahu persis bahwa pasar terlalu kecil untuk diperebutkan satu sama lain, namun justru terlalu luas dan terbuka lebar untuk dikembangkan bersama-sama.

Ketika ekonomi dunia sedang mengalami turbulensi maha dashyat, tak satu negara pun sanggup menyelesaikannya sendiri. Termasuk negara adidaya seperti USA sekali pun sepakat bahwa semua negara harus bergandengan tangan mengatasi persoalan ini. Tiap individu, korporasi, dan juga pemerintah harus keluar dari semangat ultrakompetisi yang saling membunuh satu sama lain. Sebaliknya, hanya kolaborasilah yang mampu menciptakan inovasi terobosan untuk menyelesaikan pe rsoalan multidimensi.

Khususnya bagi dunia usaha, semangat kolaborasi bukan sekadar sebuah pilihan, melainkan sudah menjadi keniscayaan. Jika ingin tetap eksis, sebuah perusahaan harus membangun jejaring yang terbuka dengan pesaing, pelanggan, pemerintah, asosiasi pengusaha, komunitas akademisi, serta mitra bisnis mereka.

Model inovasi tertutup yang ditempuh oleh sebuah organisasi tunggal adalah pendekatan masa lampau. Inovasi terbuka lewat kolaborasi antar institusi akan menjadi daya saing baru. Masalahnya, bagaimanakah bentuk kolaborasi yang cocok bagi perusahaan kita?

Pakar manajemen inovasi, Gary P. Pisano dan Roberto Vergantti, dalam tulisan Which Kind of Collaboration is Right for You? (HBR, Desember 2008), memperkenalkan empat model kolaborasi.

Elite Circle
Sebuah perusahaan memilih sekelompok orang tertentu yang diminta merumuskan masalah sekaligus juga mengajukan usulan pemecahannya.

Innovation Mall
Wahana bagi sebuah perusahaan untuk menempatkan masalahnya dan mengundang orang untuk mengusulkan pencerahan. Setelah itu, perusahaan akan memilih solusi terbaik diantara ususlan yang ada. Salah satu contoh wahana ini dapat berupa website yang berfungsi menempatkan berbagai problem. Setiap orang bebas masuk ke website untuk memberikan komentar dan alternatif solusi atas problem yang diposting tersebut.

Innovation Community
Cara ini memungkinkan setiap orang mengajukan masalah apa pun, sekaligus menawarkan solusi apa pun. Secara kolektif mereka memutuskan solusi yang akan digunakan bersama. Contoh populer model ini adalah komunitas peranti lunak linux open source.

Consortium
Memilih beberapa perusahaaan mitra secara selektif untuk merumuskan masalah, menentukan mekanisme kerja, serta memutuskan solusi yang akan ditempuh. IBM memakai pendekatan ini dengan memilih beberapa perusahaan mitra untuk mengembangkan teknologi semikonduktor.

Setiap pemimpin harus memiliki pengertian tentang strategi perusahaan secara keseluruhan, sebelum memilih model kolaborasi yang akan ditempuh. Demikian juga setiap perusahaan harus mampu menawarkan sesuatu yang unik bagi proses kolaborasi tersebut, agar mampu terlibat secara aktif sebagai pelaku.

Namun, apa pun model kolaborasi yang dipilih, saatnya dunia usaha sepakat membangun sinergi kolaborasi dalam memburu inovasi. Sudah bukan jamannya lagi perusahaan menutup diri dan sibuk menggarap inovasi seorang diri.

Source: Ekuslie Goestiandi, Kontan, 23 Februari 2009

Belajar dari 'LEM'

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 22:19:00 +0000

Lem......ya lem atau perekat.....sesuatu yang sangat berkaitan dengan keseharian kita.....bahkan sangat penting.....hanya saja kita hampir-hampur tak sadar akan kegunaan kehadirannya...kecualiiii.....tentu saja saat kita membutuhkannya, kesannya pragmatis banget, ya! Tapi memang lem diciptakan sbg alat untuk membantu umat manusia dalam berkembang, sekarang bayangkan jika kita tak punya lem, bisa jadi tak ada surat rahasia, bisa jadi tak ada yang namanya sakuran air rumah tangga, bisa jadi tidak ada banyak mainan kecil seperti yang ada saat ini......sifatnya yang dirancang untuk bisa menyatukan serpihan-serpihan kecil sekalipun menjadi berdampak besar untuk keoraktisan hidup sehari-hari kita. Sifat dia yang likuid, merekatkan dan tak nampak secara kasat mata.........sungguh mencerminkan sesuatu yang tak nampak, seringkali tak drasakan kehadirannya namun berdampak pada kehidupan kita, merupakan sifat-sifat yang bisa kita aplikasikan dalam kehidupan kita dalam berorganisasi dan berteman.

Belajar dari lem:

- Dalam berorganisasi:

1. Berwawasan kerjasama yang erat ketimbang bersaing tidak sehat

2. Berkecenderungan kolaborasi

3. Luwes dan lugas dalam satu unit atau antar unit kerja

4. Mementingkan tujuan bersama ketimbang menonjolkan diri sendiri

5. Bersifat mempersatukan daripada memecahbelah

- Dalam berteman:

1. Berkecenderungan mendahulukn teman daripada kepuasan diri semata

2. Lebih ikhlas dalam berinteraksi

3. Mementingkan hububgan jangka panjang dan berusaha menjaga persahabatan yang ada

4. Cenderung menjaga suasana damai dan ketentraman bersama ketimbang memihak salah. satu pihak

5. Kehadirannya dapat menjafi pemersatu kelompok

Lem..... ya lem.....

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Kompleksitas Kesuksesan dan Kebahagiaan

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 01:33:00 +0000

Anda seorang orang tua yang ingin dicintai anak-anak Anda. Karena itu, Anda meminta mereka untuk mencintai Anda. Mereka justru semakin menjauh.

Anda seorang yang sedang mencari cinta sejati. Karena itu, Anda menghabiskan waktu untuk perawatan kecantikan, berusaha menampilkan diri Anda yang terbaik dan sebisa mungkin menutupi kekurangan Anda. Anda ingin menunjukkan bahwa Anda lebih istimewa dibanding kandidat lainnya. Cinta sejati justru tidak pernah datang.

Anda seorang pemilik usaha yang ingin mencapai sukses setinggi-tingginya. Anda berusaha mencari segala cara untuk menurunkan biaya dan menaikkan harga. Dalam jangka pendek, cara tersebut kelihatan berhasil, namun perlahan-lahan pelanggan mulai meninggalkan produk-produk Anda.

Anda seorang pencari kebahagiaan. Anda berusaha menciptakan lingkungan yang bisa memberi Anda kesenangan terus menerus. Anda justru merasa bosan dan hampa.

Sementara itu, Anda melihat orang-orang yang kelihatannya tidak berupaya sekeras Anda justru berhasil menggapai apa yang Anda idam-idamkan.

Bila Anda (atau orang-orang yang Anda kenal) pernah mengalaminya, menurut John Kay, seorang ekonom terkemuka Inggris, hal itu adalah hasil dari prinsip obliquity. Kay berpendapat, hal-hal penting yang melibatkan partisipasi orang lain — seperti kekayaan berlimpah, cinta kasih, kebahagiaan — dan yang melibatkan sistem yang kompleks seperti kelestarian lingkungan hidup, lebih baik dicapai dengan cara-cara tidak langsung. Pencapaian yang dilakukan secara langsung, walau mungkin bisa memberikan sukses sesaat, namun dalam jangka panjang bisa menjadi bumerang.

Sepintas pendapat tersebut kedengaran kurang masuk akal. Bukankah orang-orang yang berusaha kaya akan berusaha lebih keras dibanding orang yang tidak melakukan apa-apa? Bukankah kerja keras sangat dihargai? Bukankah orang yang secara spesifik mencari pasangan hidup akan memiliki probabilitas lebih tinggi untuk mendapatkan pendamping hidup?

Menurut Kay, dalam batas-batas tersebut, jawabannya adalah “YA”. Orang-orang yang berusaha untuk kaya secara rata-rata pasti lebih kaya dari yang tidak berusaha. Dan demikian juga untuk hal-hal lainnya. Namun, bila Anda ingin benar-benar kaya, benar-benar sukses, benar-benar bahagia, Anda dianjurkan untuk tidak mengejar tujuan tersebut secara langsung. Tentu saja Anda tetap harus bekerja keras, namun kerja keras tersebut dilakukan demi alasan lain.

Lihat saja daftar orang-orang kaya versi Forbes atau Fortune. Bill Gates, yang selalu menempati ranking orang terkaya di dunia selama beberapa tahun terakhir, tidaklah menghabiskan waktu untuk menghitung penghasilannya setelah mendirikan Microsoft. Apa yang ada di pikirannya adalah membuat sistem operasi dan perangkat lunak komputer yang lebih baik dan mengejar mimpinya untuk melihat setiap orang memiliki satu komputer. Demikian juga partnernya, Paul Allen. Setelah menjadi super milyuner, kedua orang ini tetap tidak mendewakan uang. Gates dan Allen adalah penyumbang aktif untuk organisasi-organisasi sosial. Kegiatan-kegiatan filantropis Gates dan Allen benar-benar tulus dan keluar dari lubuk hati terdalam mereka, bukan sekedar untuk membangun public image yang bagus. Pierre Omidyar dan Jeff Skoll, mendirikan eBay bukan karena berharap menjadi milyuner suatu saat nanti. Mereka melakukannya karena percaya pada kekuatan pasar bebas yang direplikasi di dunia maya. Baik Omidyar atau pun Skoll sekarang lebih aktif dalam dunia filantropis dibanding mengurusi eBay.

Dan orang kedua terkaya di dunia? Warren Buffett, sang investor nomor satu di Amerika Serikat. Buffet sampai saat ini masih tinggal di rumahnya di Omaha yang sudah ditempati 50 tahun. Mobilnya juga masih mobil lama meski kekayaannya hanya bisa diimbangi oleh Gates. Buffett sendiri mengaku dia tidak tertarik dengan uangnya, tapi proses penciptaan nilai lewat perusahaan-perusahaan yang dibelinya. Sekitar 90% kekayaan pribadi Buffett disumbangkan untuk tujuan amal.

Berbeda dengan pandangan umum, orang-orang yang super kaya tidak memikirkan uang, uang, dan uang. Bagi mereka, uang justru merupakan hasil sampingan dari pengejaran mimpi mereka dengan gairah dan kepercayaan. (Untuk para wirausaha, kejarlah mimpi Anda, bukan uang.)

Dan siapa yang lebih berbahagia dan sukses menurut Anda: Bunda Theresa atau Michael Jackson? Dalai Lama atau Suharto? Negara paling bahagia sedunia? US? Prancis? Jepang? Australia? Italia? Bukan.. bukan.. Menurut World Values Surveys (WVS) yang dilakukan oleh University of Michigan, peringkat negara-negara paling bahagia tidak berkorelasi langsung dengan rata-rata pendapatan perkapita penduduknya. Memang di peringkat atas terdapat negara-negara kaya seperti Denmark dan Finlandia, tetapi negara-negara berkembang seperti Nigeria, Meksiko, Venezuela, El Salvador, dan Puerto Rico juga sering menempati posisi atas. Indonesia? Kita menduduki papan tengah dan masih lebih baik dari beberapa negara maju lainnya seperti Italia, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan. Yang menarik dari ranking ini adalah: negara-negara yang menjunjung tinggi nilai kekeluargaan, tidak terlibat konflik bersenjata, dan tidak terlalu materialistis adalah negara-negara paling bahagia di dunia. Negara-negara maju yang aman dan memiliki tunjangan sosial yang baik (seperti Denmark dan Finlandia) juga memiliki peringkat yang tinggi. Sementara negara-negara maju yang menunjukkan kompetisi yang tinggi atau hedonis seperti Jepang tidak memiliki ranking yang terlalu baik. Paling parah adalah negara-negara yang masih dilanda konflik bersenjata di dalam negeri atau dengan negara lain seperti Irak atau Zimbabwe.

Prinsip obliquity ini masuk akal karena kita hidup di dunia yang digerakkan oleh sistem yang kebanyakan komponennya di luar kendali kita. Logika sederhana “Bila A lalu B” tidak laku di sini. Yang terjadi umumnya adalah: “Bila A, lalu B dan C; B mempengaruh C dan D; D mempengaruhi A, dst…” Belum lagi bila kita berhadapan dengan sesama manusia yang tingkah lakunya sukar diprediksi. Karena itu, pengejaran tujuan yang bersifat langsung kadang sulit diprediksi keberhasilannya.

Lalu apa yang harus dilakukan untuk mencapai hal-hal penting tersebut?

Kita jelas tidak bisa menemukan jawaban lengkap. John Kay juga tidak berani menawarkan jawaban. Tapi, hal-hal yang diajarkan oleh agama dan orang-orang bijak sejak ribuan tahun lalu mungkin bisa dijadikan titik awal (paling tidak, bila ajaran tersebut mampu bertahan ribuan tahun, pasti ada alasannya). Berdoa dan percaya pada Tuhan. Kenali dan jadilah diri sendiri. Bersikap jujur. Berilah sebelum meminta. Berilah cinta tanya syarat. Kerja keras. Tekun. Temukan tujuan hidupmu dan jalankan. Tidak mudah memang, tapi bisa jadi itu juga alasan mengapa sedikit dari kita yang bisa benar-benar mencapai hal-hal penting tersebut.

Kompleksitas Dan Kecerdasan (Sebuah Perenungan)

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 00:19:00 +0000

Dalam buku In Search of Excellence (Tom Peters & R.H. Waterman), ada secuil cerita menarik yang mereka dengar dari Gordon Siu. Siu menceritakan tentang eksperimen di mana beberapa ekor lebah dan beberapa ekor lalat ditempatkan di dalam sebuah botol. Botol tersebut lalu diletakkan horisontal (memanjang) dengan bagian pantatnya yang tertutup dihadapkan ke jendela yang terkena sinar matahari, sementara bagian leher botol yang terbuka membelakangi jendela.

Lebah-lebah, yang terkenal sebagai salah satu serangga tercerdas, mati-matian berusaha keluar dari botol dengan terbang menuju ke arah cahaya (jendela). Karena cerdas, mereka berusaha mencari jalur terdekat untuk pulang ke rumah. Karena itu, mereka bertekad terbang menuju ke arah jendela apa pun resikonya. Namun karena arah tersebut tertutup bagian belakang botol, usaha mereka berakhir tragis. Para lebah akan mencoba terus sampai mati kecapaian.

Sementara lalat, yang terkenal sebagai serangga bodoh dengan otak secuil, terbang kesana kemari tanpa tujuan yang jelas. Walau demikian, perlahan-lahan tapi pasti, satu per satu dari mereka berhasil menemukan jalan keluar melalui leher botol.

Apa artinya hasil eksperimen tersebut buat kita?

Kecerdasan dan ketekunan belaka ternyata bukanlah modal utama buat sukses, terutama bila kondisi berubah drastis. Tujuan kita boleh tetap, tetapi kita terkadang harus mengambil jalan memutar bila ingin sampai di tujuan. Lebah yang cerdas memang akan mencapai tujuan lebih cepat dibanding lalat bila tidak ada halangan, tetapi bila ada halangan menanti atau lingkungan berubah (terperangkap di dalam botol yang diletakkan membelakangi jendela), sikap keras kepala mereka akan berbuah bencana. Justru upaya coba-coba yang dilakukan lalat adalah strategi yang lebih tepat.

Kecerdasan dan keahlian sering juga membutakan kita dengan membuat kita melihat masalah melalui kaca mata kuda. Bila kita memegang palu, semua kelihatan seperti paku. Kita hanya bisa melihat satu arah saja tanpa mempertimbangkan kemungkinan lain, sementara untuk menghadapi perubahan, fleksibilitas lebih dibutuhkan.

Hal yang sama juga berlaku untuk penentuan strategi perusahaan dan rencana masa depan pribadi. Dalam konteks dunia yang berubah cepat ini, apakah strategi yang Anda jalankan mengikuti cara lebah yang keras kepala, atau lalat yang mencoba berbagai alternatif lain ketika menemui kegagalan?

The 2013 Verdict

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 21:47:00 +0000

Tahun baru......it's become an annualy habit said some people.....some people said "Hari gini masih ngerayain tahun baru!!!".......Dan kita masing-masing punya beragam cara, aktivitas utk menutup akhir tahun. Bagi saya ndak masalah kalau kita merayakan tahun baru, kedatangan suatu awal baru, hanya saja yang terpenting adalah kita sungguh mendapatkan manfaat positif dari aktivitas dalam menyambut tahun baru tersebut.

Nah, melalui perenungan akhir tahun 2012 lalu saya bertanya- tanya sendiri kenapa sich kita harus ada perayaan tahun baru?

Esensi yang saya dapatkan dari hasil perenungan tentang hal ini adalah kita butuh suatu awal yang mengesankan, kita butuh semangat yang diperlukan untuk mengisi periode satu tahun akan datang, kita terbiasa dengan kebiasaan mengawali dan mengakhiri dengan sesuatu yang mengesankan, dan di atas segalanya seperti yang Abraham Maslow katakan kebutuhan tertinggi manusia bukanlah materi belaka tapi apresiasi terhadap diri kita (Self Esteem), maksudnya untuk menghargai diri kita sendiri, menghadiahi diri sendiri untuk menjadi semangat mengisi tahun yang baru.

Jadi di sini yang terpenting apa sich makna perayaan itu sendiri bagi kita? Kalau aktivitas perayaan tahun baru semata-mata untuk menghabiskan waktu akhir tahun bersama keluarga, teman, ataupun rekan kerja dan kita sendiri hanya mendapatkan diri kitadi tanggal 1 Januari tahun baru hanya rasa kantuk berat, cape, dan lebih-lebih ada semacam perasaan kekosongan atau datar untuk menjalani tahun baru, menurut saya kita perlu instropeksi bagaimana cara kita menghabiskan waktu akhir tahun.

Betul, saya setuju bahwa periode satu tahun telah lalu dengan segala kepenatan, stress kerjaan, atau seribu alasan lainnya. Namun walaupun Abraham Maslow bilang kebutuhan tertinggi kita adalah self esteem, tentunya kita harus menempatkan arti penghargaan diri dalam arti positif. Maksudnya disini adalah ......"Kesinambungan pengembangan diri kita dalam mencapai potensi optimum kita dalam segala aspek kehidupan"..... itulah esensi dari perayaan tahun baru menurut saya yang dalam segala bentuknyaa jangan sampai hilang ketika kita menyambut tahun baru......So itulah yang saya dapatkan kemarin....Selamat mengisi dan menjalani tahun 2013 dengan segala keindahannya!!!

PwC Wealth Tax Management Guide 2013

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Sun, 18 Nov 2012 09:29:00 +0000

Pwc Wealth Tax Management Guide 2013

Infographic: Critical Thinking

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 02:29:00 +0000

Kahneman on the storm of doubts surrounding social priming research

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 02:00:00 +0000

Daniel Kahneman issued an open letter to researchers doing social priming research, which has become the subject of skepticism after some studies were found to be fabricated and others were not able to be independently replicated. His letter offers advice to scholars about how to address the situation: Find out the truth through extensive replication and announce it.

The text of the letter is below:

From: Daniel Kahneman
Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2012 9:32 AM
Subject: A proposal to deal with questions about priming effects
Dear colleagues,
I write this letter to a collection of people who were described to me (mostly by John Bargh) as students of social priming. There were names on the list that I could not match to an email. Please pass it on to anyone else you think might be relevant.
As all of you know, of course, questions have been raised about the robustness of priming results. The storm of doubts is fed by several sources, including the recent exposure of fraudulent researchers, general concerns with replicability that affect many disciplines, multiple reported failures to replicate salient results in the priming literature, and the growing belief in the existence of a pervasive file drawer problem that undermines two methodological pillars of your field: the preference for conceptual over literal replication and the use of meta-analysis. Objective observers will point out that the problem could well be more severe in your field than in other branches of experimental psychology, because every priming study involves the invention of a new experimental situation.
For all these reasons, right or wrong, your field is now the poster child for doubts about the integrity of psychological research. Your problem is not with the few people who have actively challenged the validity of some priming results. It is with the much larger population of colleagues who in the past accepted your surprising results as facts when they were published. These people have now attached a question mark to the field, and it is your responsibility to remove it.
I am not a member of your community, and all I have personally at stake is that I recently wrote a book that emphasizes priming research as a new approach to the study of associative memory – the core of what dual-system theorists call System 1. Count me as a general believer. I also believe in a point that John Bargh made in his response to Cleeremans, that priming effects are subtle and that their design requires high-level skills. I am skeptical about replications by investigators new to priming research, who may not be attuned to the subtlety of the conditions under which priming effects are observed, or to the ease with which these effects can be undermined.
My reason for writing this letter is that I see a train wreck looming. I expect the first victims to be young people on the job market. Being associated with a controversial and suspicious field will put them at a severe disadvantage in the competition for positions. Because of the high visibility of the issue, you may already expect the coming crop of graduates to encounter problems. Another reason for writing is that I am old enough to remember two fields that went into a prolonged eclipse after similar outsider attacks on the replicability of findings: subliminal perception and dissonance reduction.
I believe that you should collectively do something about this mess. To deal effectively with the doubts you should acknowledge their existence and confront them straight on, because a posture of defiant denial is self-defeating. Specifically, I believe that you should have an association, with a board that might include prominent social psychologists from other field. The first mission of the board would be to organize an effort to examine the replicability of priming results, following a protocol that avoids the questions that have been raised and guarantees credibility among colleagues outside the field.
The following is just an example of such a protocol:
* Assemble a group of five labs, where the leading investigators have an established reputation (tenure should perhaps be a requirement). Substantial labs with several students are the most desirable participants.
* Each lab selects a recent demonstration of a priming effect, which they consider robust and most likely to replicate.
* The board makes a public commitment to these five specific effects
* Set up a daisy chain of labs A-B-C-D-E-A, where each lab will replicate the study selected by its neighbor: B replicates A, C replicates B etc.
* Have the replicating lab send someone to see how subjects are run (hence the emphasis on recency – the experiments should be in the active repertoire of the original lab, so that additional subjects can be run with confidence that the same procedure is followed).
* Have the replicated lab send someone to vet the procedure of the replicating lab as it starts its work
* Run enough subjects to guarantee power (probably more than in the original study)
* Use technology (e.g. video) to ensure that every detail of the method is documented and can be copied by others.
* Pre-commit to publish the results, letting the chips fall where they may, and make all data available for analysis by others.
This is something you could do quickly, and relatively cheaply. The main costs are 10 trips, and funds to cover these costs would be easy to get (I have checked). You would have to be careful in selecting laboratories and results to maximize credibility, and every step of the procedure should be open and documented. The unusually high openness to scrutiny may be annoying and even offensive, but it is a small price to pay for the big prize of restored credibility.
Success (say, replication of four of the five positive priming results) would immediately rehabilitate the field. Importantly, success would also provide an effective challenge to the adequacy of outsiders’ replications. A publicly announced and open effort would be credible among colleagues at large, because it would show that you are sufficiently confident in your results to take a risk.
More ambiguous results would be painful, of course, but they would still protect the reputations of scholars who sincerely believe in their work – even if they are sometimes wrong.
The protocol I outlined is just an example of something you might do. The main point of my letter is that you should do something, and that you must do it collectively. No single individual will be able to overcome the doubts, but if you act as a group and avoid defensiveness you will be credible.

In response to Ed Yong’s article in Nature in which Kahneman’s letter is published, Norbert Schwarz, has written a response, saying “There is no empirical evidence that work in this area is more or less replicable than work in other areas.”

REFERENCE

Nobel laureate challenges psychologists to clean up their act

Infographic: FOREX Mechanism

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 01:07:00 +0000

This infographic is provided to you by CMS Forex.
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Infographic: Card Fraud - Are You In A high Risk Category?

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 02:35:00 +0000

Operational Risk : An Infographic

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 05:42:00 +0000

Infographic: Sitting Is Killing You

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 06:36:00 +0000

Via: Medical Billing And Coding

Sepotong Roti Manis dan Nikmat - Sebuah Kisah

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 03:53:00 +0000

Bob Butler kehilangan kedua kakinya pada tahun 1965 akibat ledakan ranjau di Vietnam. Ia kembali ke negerinya sebagai pahlawan perang. Dua puluh tahun kemudian dia sekali lagi membuktikan kepahlawanan yang murni berasal dari lubuk hatinya.

Butler sedang bekerja di garasi rumahnya di sebuah kota kecil di Arizona pada suatu Hari dalam musim panas ketika dia mendengar jeritan seorang wanita dari salah satu rumah tetangganya. Ia menggelindingkan kursi rodanya ke rumah ini, tetapi semak-semak yang tinggi di rumah itu tidak memungkinkan kursi rodanya mencapai pintu belakang. Maka veteran itu keluar dari kursinya Dan merangkak tanpa peduli debu Dan semak yang harus dilewatinya.

“Aku harus sampai ke sana,” ucapnya dalam hati. “Tak peduli bagaimanapun sulitnya.”

Ketika Butler tiba di rumah itu, dia tahu bahwa jeritan itu datang dari arah kolam. Di sana seorang anak perempuan berusia kira-kira tiga tahun sedang terbenam di dalamnya. Anak itu lahir tanpa lengan, sehingga ketika dia jatuh ke dalam kolam dia tidak dapat berenang. Sang ibu hanya bisa berdiri mematung sambil menangisi putri kecilnya. Butler langsung menceburkan diri dan menyelam ke dalam dasar kolam lalu membawanya naik. Wajah anak bernama Stephanie itu sudah membiru, denyut nadinya tidak terasa dan tidak benapas.

Butler segera berusaha melakukan pernafasan buatan untuk menghidupkannya kembali sementara ibunya menghubungi pemadam kebakaran melalui telepon. Dia diberitahu bahwa petugas kesehatan kebetulan sedang bertugas di tempat lain. Dengan putus ASA, dia terisak-isak sambil memeluk pundak Butler.

Sementara terus melakukan pernafasan buatan, Butler dengan tenang meyakinkan sang ibu bahwa Stephanie akan selamat. “Jangan cemas,” katanya. “Saya menjadi tangannya untuk keluar dari kolam itu. Ia akan baik-baik saja. Sekarang saya akan menjadi paru-parunya. Bila bersama-sama Kita pasti bisa.”

Beberapa saat kemudian anak kecil itu mulai terbatuk-batuk, sadar kembali Dan mulai menangis. Ketika mereka saling berpelukan Dan bergembira bersama-sama, sang ibu bertanya kepada Butler tentang bagaimana ia yakin bahwa anaknya akan selamat.

“Ketika kaki saya remuk terkena ledakan di Vietnam, saya sedang sendirian di sebuah ladang,” ceritanya kepada perempuan itu. “Tidak Ada orang lain di sekitar situ yang bisa menolong kecuali seorang gadis Vietnam yang masih kecil. Sambil berjuang menyeretnya ke desa, gadis itu berbisik dalam bahasa Inggris
patah-patah, “Tidak apa-apa. Anda akan hidup. Saya akan menjadi kaki Anda. Bersama-sama Kita pasti bisa.”

“Ini kesempatan bagi saya untuk membalas yang pernah saya terima,” katanya kepada ibu Stephanie.

Kita semua adalah malaikat-malaikat bersayap sebelah. Hanya bila saling membantu Kita semua dapat terbang ( Luciano De Crescenzo. )

Matrix Mapping: the easiest and best way to map internal controls

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:11:00 +0000

Stop and check!

The most common format for documenting internal controls (i.e. format for "control matrices") takes far too long to write and produces huge documents of little practical use. It's so inefficient that people naturally cut corners, giving a distorted view of controls and risk. I should know; I made the wrong choice myself once. Never again!

If your company has documented its internal controls using some kind of matrices or has to do so in future it is well worth getting the right format in place. This is one of those details that makes a huge difference. If you already have matrices check them and, if they are the wrong style, plan to reformat them as soon as possible. If you have still to start them or have just started a project to write control matrices, stop, check, and restart your project using the right style of matrix. If you don't you will regret it later.

Wrong and right formats

The format most people think of first when asked to map internal controls to risks is the obvious one: a list of risks, with controls written against each risk to show the risk is covered. The layout is some variation on the one below, with other columns added for extra information and cross referencing:

Risk/control objective	Controls
Risk A	Controls addressing risk A
Risk B	Controls addressing risk B
Risk C	Controls addressing risk C
Risk D	Controls addressing risk D
etc	etc

At first glance this seems sensible and there is no obvious objection in principle. However, this is a disastrous choice. If the format your company uses, or plans to use, is like this then read on.

A vastly superior format is to list controls down the left hand column, and risks across the column headings, then mark off where controls address risks within a matrix of small cells, like this:

Control	Risk A	Risk B	Risk C	Risk D	etc
Control 1		1	1
Control 2			1		1
Control 3	1				1
Control 4			1	1	1
etc

In this example, Risk A is covered by Control 3 only. Risk B is covered by Control 1 only. Risk C is covered by Controls 1, 2, and 4. And so on.

At first glance this seems unpromising. Surely there will be lots of wasted space? Won't the column headings be difficult to read? What if there are too many risks to fit across the page?

All these are minor issues whose impact can be minimised, and they are insignificant next to the hidden drawbacks of the more obvious approach. The next section looks in more detail at the advantages and disadvantages of each type.

Why this is so much better

The big problem in designing control matrices is that the relation between risks and controls is many-to-many. Each risk is typically addressed by several controls, and each control typically contributes to covering several risks. This cannot be eliminated by choosing a special set of risks or controls, so the format has to support these many-to-many relations conveniently.

The obvious format fails to do this, leaving matrix writers with a choice between repeating the same control wherever it applies, or not repeating it every time, to save space and avoid repetition, and so recording the mapping innaccurately. In practice most people try to fudge the risk descriptions to reduce the repetition problem, then mention each control only once unless that would leave a risk with no controls against it.

The result is a distorted picture that under-states the actual level of control and encourages people to place too much trust in individual controls instead of seeing the control system as have multiple lines of defence. Real control systems are made from multiple layers, but this is almost impossible to see or understand if the wrong matrix layout is used.

There are a number of other factors, summarised here:

Obvious format	Correct format
Does not conveniently represent many-to-many relations between risks and controls, leading to distortion and repetition of control descriptions.	Very easy to show many-to-many relations. Avoids distortion. Controls are described only once, saving space.
Does not provide a list of controls.	Provides a list of controls, which can be neatly organised into control types.
Repetition of controls makes it hard to record extra information about controls, while their disorganised distribution through the matrix makes specific controls hard to find quickly.	Extra information can be put against each control and the controls can be grouped meaningfully. For example, it is easy to give each manager a list of the controls he/she is responsible for, or produce a list of all control reports needed from a new system, or pull out the rules for segregation of duties.
Hard to automate.	Easily automated on a spreadsheet giving dramatically smaller matrices and the ability to sort controls. (See below for a full explanation.)
Does not prompt people to think of controls.	Provides ideas for controls.
Almost useless for designing controls.	Ideal for designing controls.

Different types of analysis

The most common type of analysis is one that goes through accounting processes (e.g. sales from sales order through to collection of cash) looking at controls that help ensure the accounts are correct, or at least acceptably accurate. In this analysis it is not important whether the company is trading successfully, so long as the accounts accurately reflect performance.

As corporate governance rules have developed in various countries it is these matrices that are usually among the first requirements, directly or indirectly.

However, other types of analysis are also possible. For example:

Revenue and cost assurance: Mistakes and system flaws cost businesses dear through incomplete billing and over-payment for goods and services received. Systematic mapping of internal controls is one way to identify where this might be happening and find ways to reduce it.
Data conversion: When data is moved from an old computer system to a new one a set of checks is needed to ensure that data is not lost or damaged in the process.
Profitable trading: This kind of analysis is concerned with objectives like selling the right goods at a good price and getting paid for them.
Compliance with laws and regulations: This can be quite a lengthy analysis, even in overview.
Support processes: For example, people in a company's computer department carry out processes that support others. The computer department's processes can also be analysed for error and fraud risks.
IT security risks: e-business processes need careful security design and a detailed analysis is needed to confirm that the design is adequate, in principle at least.
Business unit overview: This is the level at which top level analyses are usually pitched for compliance with corporate governance regulations such as the UK's Turnbull guidance.

Risk frameworks and control objectives

The ideal framework of risks to use as column headings in a control matrix is one that omits nothing significant within the scope of the analysis and matches conveniently with the effects of the internal controls. If the risks are too broad it is difficult to show coverage accurately. (A control has to be put against the risk but it is not clear that the control only covers part of that particular risk.) On the other hand, if the risks are too fine the matrix becomes large unnecessarily.

If the scope of the analysis is to ensure correct accounting there is a simple and systematic way to generate a framework of risks. Here it is, step by step:

If many accounting cycles are being analysed, decide how to divide up the cycles e.g. "purchases" or "purchases and payables"? It is usually best to go with the longest, most inclusive processes possible. Do not forget to include processes like returns and adjustments that may be infrequent and low value, typically, because these are often weakly controlled areas.
Identify the underlying information processing, excluding internal control steps. Most people find it helps to draw diagrams but with practice this can be omitted. Look for the physical stores of data (e.g. paper forms, computer databases, and computer files), physical transfers of data, data capture steps, and calculations. Exclude internal control steps such as checks and authorisations, which are things done to ensure that the underlying information processing is done correctly. It is not usually necessary to identify every data movement that happens within a single database used by a single computer application, though this can sometimes be helpful. Be sure to list all the data capture steps including things like bad debt provision entry, and obscure reference data edits.
Carve up the underlying processing into steps. Typically there will be data capture steps, data transfer steps, and calculation (including summary) steps. It is not necessary to list the steps in any particular order but it is clearer to work in the order of processing transactions, with reference data done last or interleaved with transaction processing steps. There are choices in selecting the steps but aim to minimise the number of steps while maximising the precision of the mapping.
Apply a standard set of "control objectives" to every step. The traditional control objectives are Completeness, Accuracy, and Validity, to which Uniqueness should be added. (See below for an explanation.) The effect of this is to divide up all possible errors at each step into a small number of standard categories.

Control objectives are just the flip side of risks. If the risk is "Incomplete posting of sales to the sales ledger", then the objective is "Complete posting of sales to the sales ledger." The traditional trio of Completeness, Accuracy, and Validity is based on the idea that accounting processes mainly involve copying information from one place to another, item by item (e.g. sale by sale). "Complete" means that all items that should have been copied across have been. "Accurate" means that all items copied across kept their value or any calculation is correct. "Valid" means no items are inserted without having been copied from the previous stage i.e. nothing has been made up. There is one further error that could occur, which is for an item to be copied across more than once. Traditionally, this is included under either Completeness or Validity, but neither approach is satisfactory as many controls confirm Completeness or Validity without helping on duplication. It is best to introduce a fourth control objective, "Uniqueness."

These control objectives are always with respect to the previous stage of processing, rather than to original truth. For example, controls often ensure that some data has been copied Completely from one database to another, but not that the data are a complete record of the business activities they represent. So, Complete, Accurate, Valid, and Unique always mean compared with the data at the previous step.

Some data flows are "structured" in the sense that they are made of units, each of which is itself composed of smaller units. For example, the data flow may be made of a series of files, each of which is composed of a number of records, each of which is made up of a number of fields of data.

If some of the controls apply to one or more levels but not all it is possible to show this distinction on the control matrix by using multiple Steps (i.e. columns) for the data flow, one for each level of the structure you want to analyse separately.

Debt management is often included as an extra control objective. Strictly this is not directly an issue for financial reporting, provided bad debt provisions are accurate. However, it is comforting to know that doubtful debts are not taken on as this reduces the risk of provisions turning out to be incorrect.

Three other control objectives that might be used are confidentiality, auditability, and non-repudiation. (Non-repudiation relates to electronic records of contracts. Suppose a customer places an order but later claims not to have done. If you provide an ordinary computer record of the order the customer could say you made it up. However, modern cryptographic techniques allow you to retain a record of an order received electronically from a customer in such a way that you could not have made it up, and so the customer cannot "repudiate" the order.)

How to decide if a control applies to a step

A control should be shown as applying to a step if it increases the probability that any of the control objectives have been met for that step. The set of steps a control applies to can be called the "span" of the control. Here are some examples to show the principle:

e.g. A hash total is used to check that a file of data has been copied without alteration from one computer to another. (Let's assume the interface is one step in the process break down.) The control should be shown as applying to that interface step only.
e.g. A reconciliation is performed between data at one point in the processing and another point, three steps later. The control should be shown as applying to all three steps.
e.g. A control is used to ensure that software programs within an application are not changed by accident. This slightly reduces the risk of error and fraud of various types for all steps performed using that application.
e.g. A computer checks data to see that it matches a business rule, such as that customer ages should be between 0 and 150 years old. Some mistyped dates of birth will be caught by this check. The assurance applies to all steps prior to this point, because an error at any of these steps could be caught by the check (unless of course exactly the same check is also performed earlier on).

Compressing control matrices using control objectives

If the risk framework uses a small set of standardised control objectives as discussed above it is possible to produce a rigorous but extraordinarily compact matrix.

The control objectives addressed by an internal control are a property of the control, and do not change depending on where it is applied. Therefore, it is enough to provide a column for each step in the processing cycle and show in the matrix which steps each control provides assurance over. To capture the analysis at the more detailed level of control objectives, use the spreadsheet to record the control objectives addressed by each control and then summarise the overall assurance on each step for each control objective.

Here is the basic format to use. The spreadsheet formulae are simple, using nothing more sophisticated than the sumif() function in the summary cells. The new elements of the layout are coloured.

	C	A	V	U	Step A	Step B	Step C	Step D	etc
Control 1	1	1				1	1
Control 2	1	1	1				1		1
Control 3				1	1				1
Control 4		1	1				1	1	1
etc
Summary
Completeness					0	1	2	0	1
Accuracy					0	1	3	1	2
Validity					0	0	2	1	2
Uniqueness					1	0	0	0	1

In practice it is better to put the summary cells at the top of the page so they can be frozen on screen as you scroll around the matrix. This way you can always see the summarised position as you work.

It is also helpful to set up rows to show the perceived risk of each type of error for each step - think of it as a target for the total coverage score. In the example above the assurance provided by each control for each control objective is shown as all or nothing i.e. 1 or 0. However, controls vary greatly in their effectiveness and this can be shown by using factors other than one.

The difference between the coverage target and the coverage achieved can be calculated by the spreadsheet and on some spreadsheet programs it is possible to colour code the differences automatically using conditional formatting to show where weaknesses lie.

Here is an example showing these techniques:

Targets					Step A	Step B	Step C	Step D	etc
Completeness					0.5	1.0	0.2	0.6	1.0
Accuracy					1.0	0.5	0.2	2.0	1.0
Validity					1.0	1.0	0.2	0.2	1.0
Uniqueness					0.5	1.0	1.0	2.0	1.5
Differences					Step A	Step B	Step C	Step D	etc
Completeness					-0.5	-0.5	0.5	-0.6	-0.8
Accuracy					-1.0	0.5	2.8	-1.0	1.0
Validity					-1.0	-1.0	0.6	-0.1	-0.2
Uniqueness					0.0	-1.0	-1.0	-2.0	-1.0
	C	A	V	U	Step A	Step B	Step C	Step D	etc
Control 1	0.5	1.0				1	1
Control 2	0.2	1.0	0.7				1		1
Control 3				0.5	1				1
Control 4		1.0	0.1				1	1	1
etc

In this example there are obviously some problems with the coverage. There are many gaps but also some over-controlled steps where it may be possible to cut out some work and complexity from the controls.

These numbers are all subjective judgements, but this is still better than unquantified judgement. In some cases it may be possible to support judgements with data and calculations based on data, but this is unlikely to be worthwhile except with the most costly processes.

One problem with this technique is to calibrate the targets correctly. You can get a feel for targets by scoring actual controls on a process that is thought to be well controlled and where performance has been good (i.e. errors known and tolerably low). These scores provide a guide for setting targets on other processes.

This kind of sophistication is helpful if you can do it but not essential. Even without targets and coverage factors the spreadsheet analysis is still far more precise than it would be with the conventional approach.

Another enhancement to the basic spreadsheet is to add another worksheet to show a coloured version of the original matrix, for each control objective individually. This can be done using a sheet for each control objective or a single sheet with a cell into which you type the one letter abbreviation of the objective whose analysis is to be displayed.

Helpful control frameworks

The ideal control framework groups all possible controls into a set of layers, or lines of defence, on the basis of the nature of the control. By finding or designing controls under each category it should be possible to produce a complete system covering all relevant levels of management control. If it is difficult to design effective controls at one level it should be easy to see the other levels at which compensating strength can be designed.

It is pointless to try to group controls according to the control objectives they address, though many people do this, or are taught to.

Here's the multi-layer model I like and recommend for controlling financial cycles, starting at the top:

Management monitoring

Process monitoring

Monitor past effectiveness of the controls and take corrective action, for example by tracking error rates, transactions via exception streams, and lost revenue and changing the process to make it inherently more reliable, or adding checks.
Monitor future events and adapt the process and its controls in good time, for example through capacity planning, looking ahead for high risk changes and spreading them out, and checking for forthcoming contract changes that will be difficult and time consuming to implement.
Monitor the controls to ensure they are operating, for example through audit work, reviewing reports of control performance, and control self assessment. Where reliance is placed on exception reporting no news is good news - or the controls have stopped operating. This is particularly important for controls that aim to cover risks that rarely occur.

Business monitoring

trading performance

Control activities

Protect the process from interference, using physical and software security measures.
Make the process recoverable, for example through data backups, disaster recovery planning, and building resilience and recoverability into every interface.
Make the process inherently reliable, for example, by assuring software quality, testing the usability of software which interacts with humans, and using reliable hardware.
Put checks on data and processing in place, with associated corrective action, to detect process errors, interference with the process such as fraud, and attempts to pass fraud through the process.
Put audit trails in place, so that auditors can gain assurance of correct functioning, and so that errors can be investigated and corrected easily.

	Sort	C	A	V	U	Step A	Step B	Step C	Step D	etc
MONITORING	A
BUSINESS MONITORING	AA
Weekly margin analysis and meeting	AA1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PROCESS MONITORING	AB
Downtime analysis and meeting	AB1	1	1	1	1		1	1
Quality review statistics	AB2		1			1
End-to-end reconciliation summary	AB3	1		1	1	1	1	1	1	1
CONTROL ACTIVITIES	C
PROTECTION	CA
Building security guards and alarms	CA1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Computer room security	CA2	1	1	1	1		1	1
Operating system level passwords	CA3	1	1	1	1		1	1
RECOVERY CONTROLS	CB
Nightly backups of main servers	CB1	1		1	1		1	1
etc

Adding information about controls

Design and implementation information: e.g. name of developer, whether software needs to be written, whether the control already exists or not. Obviously, this is relevant if controls are still being developed.
Manager responsible for operation of the control: Useful for various review and confirmation exercises. Processes almost always cut across departments but people naturally want to know what they are responsible for.
Frequency of operation of the control: This can sometimes be useful where there is a choice and you want to make the most economic set of decisions about frequencies.

Formatting to print

Stay electronic: Avoid hardcopy altogether if possible. You can get more text on a spreadsheet if you use comments for extended descriptions and comments. These cannot be printed at all.
Turn the risks through 90 degrees: This allows the columns to be narrower.
Hide columns: Hide any columns not needed by the person who wants the hardcopy.
Set column and row headings so every page has them: Possible on some spreadsheet programs. If not, split the matrix by splitting the set of risks/steps.

Finally

Source: http://www.internalcontrolsdesign.co.uk

Shocked by the possibility of centralized AI

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 02:52:00 +0000

Two figures above is comparing Human Synapse activity with Internet activity. And the result shows surprising similarity....

At the first, I've not surprised with the figure...but when I began to continue tracking in my mind, I've found something ineterest that could't make me stop thinking about it. In fact I knew the similarity since a few years back. I've known it but never try to think it more.

Without any reason, I figured :" Yeah...it's possible if our brain neural network be the same as internet traffic visualization since neurons, or nerve cells, each have a pair of projections—the axon and the dendrite, which transmit and receive impulses, respectively. On the other hand the internet especially in P2P sharing have Client Servers and each have pair of projections - the suppliers and the consumers of resources. Yap, it was a suitable analogy...I thought.

But....suddenly, without any reason, I've a question in my mind....Is it possible if once time in the future of the world will have one centralized artificial intelligence ( i called it) that can fully control all the network ( all the brain) using internet or other form of electronic device ( like immersed nano chip or internet network program which can penetrate and fully take control our mind, etc).

Nowadays the possibility of one mandatory artificial intelligence which can control the human brain increasing since the nano technology discovered. The application of nano technology influence in neuro science, biotechnology, information technology significantly.

Imagining it, I can say my negative perception is more dominate my mind than positive perception...I knew it was not fair .... this happened to me because since I was young I have raised in Christianity Doctrine that said in the end of days there will appear deceivers that will use the immersed chip in human body to control us....

Later I decided not to use that doctrine again since I grew up in maturity and my reading experience.. so I prefered to compare this matter wisely...when I did it, I got one sentence to conclude my thought about it :

In a dynamic and uncertainty thing, there will always be a chance that a new thing can be exploited to have the positive impact or negative impact. And we are human become the decision maker to it.

So back to my spontaneous reaction to this matter, I must observe this matter with all the possibilities impact to us as a human being. And I got whatever the new thing arise before us, it is our decision as a human being to bring it to the positive thing for human kind or vice versa....

And I decide to believe that both of neuro science or information and communication technology progress/ improvement will bring the positive impact for humand kind....

Finally I decide not to fear about the negative impact from the possibbility emergence of centralized artificial inteligence that can control our mind.

15 Styles of Distorted Thinking

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 05:54:00 +0000

Filtering: You take the negative details and magnify them while filtering out all positive aspects of a situation.
Polarized Thinking: Things are black or white, good or bad. You have to be perfect or you're a failure. There is no middle ground.
Overgeneralization: You come to a general conclusion based on a single incident or piece of evidence. If something bad happens once you expect it to happen over and over again.
Mind Reading: Without their saying so, you know what people are feeling and why they act the way they do. In particular, you are able to divine how people are feeling toward you.
Castastrophizing: You expect disaster. you notice or hear about a problem and start "what if's". What if tragedy strikes? What if it happens to you?"
Personalization: Thinking that everything people do or say is some kind of reaction to you. You also compare yourself to others, trying to determine who's smarter, better looking, etc.
Control Fallacies: If you feel externally controlled, you see yourself as helpless, a victim of fate. The fallacy of internal control has you responsible for the pain and happiness of everyone around you.
Fallacy of Fairness: You feel resentful because you think you know what's fair but other people won't agree with you.
Blaming: You hold other people responsible for your pain, or take the other tack and blame yourself for every problem or reversal.
Should: You have a list of ironclad rules about how you and other people should act. People who break the rules anger you and you feel guilty if you violate the rules.
Emotional Reasoning: You believe that what you feel must be true-automatically. If you feel stupid and boring, then you must be stupid and boring.
Fallacy of Change: You expect that other people will change to suit you if you just pressure or cajole them enough. You need to change people because your hope for happiness seem to depend entirely on them.
Global Labeling: You generalize one or two qualities into a negative global judgment.
Being Right: You are continually on trial to prove that your opinions and actions are correct. Being wrong is unthinkable and you will go to any length to demonstrate your rightness.
Heaven's Reward Fallacy: You expect all your sacrifice and self-denial to pay off, as if there were someone keeping score. You feel better when the reward doesn't come

Source: http://www.surrenderworks.com

Taking Criticism Effectively

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 00:07:00 +0000

“Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary.
It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body.
It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things.”
~ Winston Churchill

Criticism is crucial for personal improvement. It’s the most direct way to find out what you should improve on. However, accepting criticism can be emotionally challenging. Afterall, we’re only human, who wants to hear bad stuff about ourselves?

It’s hard to not take it personally. Our instinctive reaction is to become defensive and we shut out potentially helpful and life-enhancing tips. By doing this, we miss out on what could supercharge our improvement.

So how can you take criticism without getting self-conscious and defensive?

Answer: An effective way to accept criticism is to externalize it.

When you externalize criticism, you escape the defensiveness trap. You stop being self-conscious and take criticism objectively, which lets you reap the benefits of the helpful tips that the criticism contains.

The criticism isn’t directed at you personally, but at a writer, artist, worker, developer (or whatever else you’re getting feedback for) that just happens to have the same name as you. When you take criticism objectively, your initial defensiveness fades away, simply because you’re not taking it personally anymore.

Externalizing criticism lets you extract helpful tips from even the most critical feedback. You take the bits that make sense to you and discard the rest. You don’t risk getting defensive or even feeling bad or self-conscious.

Externalizing criticism is also a shield from bad and unhelpful criticism. It doesn’t matter how much or what kind of comments and criticism you get: you look at it all objectively. You can take what makes sense to you and discard the rest.

When you externalize criticism, you can easily take and use it to supercharge your personal improvement.

5 Steps to Effectively Taking Criticism

Ready to improve your taking of criticism? Good.

Next time you ask for feedback, follow these 5 steps to externalize criticism:

1. Wait for your gut reaction to pass before doing anything – let your emotions disappear, so you don’t take the criticism personally and become defensive
2. Imagine the criticism is directed at someone else – some person who happens to have your name and does exactly what you do
3. Keep your mouth shut – listen, don’t defend
4. Discuss the person’s points – asking questions will a) help you to get even more useful tips from them, and b) externalize the criticism more (you’re seeing it even more objectively this way)

Rinse and repeat every time you get feedback until externalizing criticism becomes a habit.

(Bonus) How to even more effectively take criticism:

1. Be confident – believe in what you do, so that even the most critical comments don’t sway your direction
2. Have a clear goal in what you’re doing – so when you ask for feedback on it, you can take criticism to improve the key areas rather than let others dictate the direction and get lost

Why It’s So Hard to Take Criticism

The reason we get defensive when taking criticism is because we’re tied to our ego. So when someone is giving tips on how we can improve, that person is indirectly acknowledging that we’re not great at something. And our ego gets bruised.

As Dr. Leon F. Seltzer explains in his Psychology Today article on why criticism is so hard to take:

“Criticism, even well-intended criticism, can be understood as a direct assault on our ego. When (however unconsciously) we’ve come to associate our very selves with our ego or point of view, then whenever our perspective is questioned, disbelieved, or disputed, we cannot but experience ourselves in jeopardy – our mental and emotional poise at once thrown into disequilibrium.”

Even if it’s made clear that the criticism is not to criticize but instead show how you can improve, you naturally want to defend yourself. And when you go into defensive mode, you don’t get the tips from the criticism that could really supercharge your improvement.

So detach yourself from your ego – at least when you take criticism. Externalize the criticism so you look at it objectively, rather than as a critique of yourself (and thus your ego).

An Experience with Criticism

Back then, I don't really care what people think of me. When they told me that they don't like my attitude or the way I handle things, I think that I'm right, and they should be able to accept it.

But as I grew up, I am able to take criticism more openly. I will never get mad to the person who criticized me. I thank them for telling me my minus point. Only true friend are able to do that.

After they criticized me, I will listen and never argue. But if I had my reason, I will tell them. But then I guess, it is in our instinct to be defensive. But I do take note and on my own free time, I will think it thoroughly and think of ways to improve whatever it is that has been bothering them.

So friends, if you had anything about me you want to critic, feel free to contact me. I welcome criticism, that's the only way one can see oneself from another person's eye :)

How to Take Criticism

Having trouble taking criticism? Know that the useful tips can help, but you block yourself from them by taking criticism personally and getting defensive? Don’t worry – it’s a natural reaction, and there’s a solution: Effectively accept criticism by externalizing it.

You’ll supercharge your personal improvement by being able to easily get useful tips from people’s feedback. You’ll look at the criticism objectively and take away what makes sense to you, using it to improve what you’re doing. And by listening and discussing instead of defending, you’ll get even more use out of the criticism.

Now go out there and ask for some feedback. Take the criticism, externalize it, and supercharge your improvement.
Source: http://jessymclaren.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-to-take-criticism.html

Dysfunctional Math

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 09:48:00 +0000

A defining characteristic of our age is the unusual math. Today's unprecedented numbers and figures are matched with graphs increasingly exponential in nature--especially the hyper-exponential, purely vertical Profusion Curve. What makes this disconcerting is that plotting the math into the future leads to dysfunction in nearly all directions. Simply stated, the math no longer works in a variety of critical settings.

This math problem arises inevitably from the process of progress. Progress always gives us more and more of everything faster and faster. In the past, when more is what we needed, it was glorious to receive such profusion almost automatically. Now, however, progress is mathematically uncontrollable and volatile. Modern progress has a math problem, and in many ways it will dominate our future. When history decided to explode, it chose to do so on our generational shift.

Following is a representative list to help illustrate this profound mathematical growth. It's important to realize that this is but a partial list and that any single number is not the problem. It's only when all the dots are connected through integration that the true picture of dysfunction comes into view.

More video is uploaded to YouTube in 60 days than all 3 networks created in 60 years.
Google scientists counted over 1 trillion URLs (resources, documents, domain names) on the Web.
The average American is exposed to 10 hours of media per day.
Half of this is television at 34 hours of TV per week on average.
Go to college and you can choose from over 500 baccalaureate degrees.
Get a satellite dish and choose from over 1,000 movies a month.
The average grocery store has 30,000 different products.
There are 55,000 configurations of coffee at Starbucks.
We each must learn to operate 20,000 pieces of equipment in our lifetime; In the next century, we'll have a million times more technology than we do now.
400,000 books per year are published in US and Great Britain.
Amazon.com offers 24 million consumer products of all kinds, and has sold over 7.5 million unique titles.
WebMD, with 22 million visitors per month, has a privacy statement link at the bottom of their home page. Click and read their 30-page explanation of how they'll use your personal data.
"There are 35,000 publications a year in neuroscience, and no single researcher knows even 1% of that."
Artificial intelligence is increasing ten million times faster than human intelligence.
Knowledge workers check email 50 times a day, instant messaging 77 times a day, and visit 40 websites per day.
The average desk worker starts something new every 3 minutes.
Information overload costs businesses $650 bil/yr and stress costs $300 bil/yr.
Information is increasing at a compound annual 60%.
One third of us live with extreme stress and 48% believe it has increased over past 5 years.
There was more change in the last century than in all of recorded history prior to 1900.
There will be a thousand times more change in this century than the last.
Apple offers 225,000 apps in its Apps Store, and ten billion were downloaded in just two years.
The new Fiat 500 subcompact has one-half million combinations to choose from.
Malicious spam (daily) jumped from 600 million to 3 billion during a recent six-month span.
3.5 million words of legislation and 8,694 bills introduced in the 2009 Congress.
There are 90,000 governmental bodies in the US.
U.S. businesses and households will spend 7.5 billion hours complying with tax laws this year.
In 1800 there was just one city with a million people; now there are 381.
The percentages of households in the US that are married couple households: 1950 - 79%; 1960 - 74%; 1970 - 70%; 1980 - 61%; 1990 - 56%; 2000 - 52%; 2010 - 50%
CERN, the new particle accelerator on the border of France and Switzerland, is the largest information generator in history, generating one billion particle interactions/sec and creating one trillion bytes/sec of information. This must be algorithmed down in 3 microseconds by a series of computers to a few hundred bytes which are saved for future examination. All other bytes must be immediately jettisoned forever, to make room for the next second's worth of data.
Economist Mary Meeker, a securities analyst and venture capitalist with Merrill Lynch, Salomon, and Morgan Stanley, and "One of the ten smartest in tech" according to Fortune 2010: "I took a deep dive into these questions a little more than a year ago, and I'm finally up for air....By our rough estimate, USA Inc. has a net worth of negative $44 trillion. That comes to $143,000 per capita. Negative." (Business Week, Feb 2011)
USA Today, 6-7-11: "The government added $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations in 2010, largely for programs such as Medicare and Social Security, to bring the total of unpaid financial promises to a record $61.6 trillion."

Healthcare Math dysfunction

Healthcare costs are now $2.6 trillion/yr. In 1970, when I began medical school, this was $74 billion/yr.
Healthcare as a percentage of GDP: 1960 - 5.2%; 1970 - 7.2%; 1980 - 9.1%; 1990 - 12.3%; 2000 - 13.8%; 2011 - 17.6%
Doctors graduating from medical school owe an average of $155,000, while a quarter of new med school grads owe over $200,000. It's not uncommon to hear of med student debt over $400,000.
Medicare expenditures last year reached $523 billion but with income of only $486 billion--a gap of $37 billion in one year.
10,000 baby-boomers will become eligible for Medicare every day for the next 19 years, causing the Medicare fiscal discrepancy to widen rapidly and unsustainably.
The PDR (Physician Desk Reference) has 3,300 pages; when first created in 1948, it had 300 pages.
If I read two healthcare related articles every day for a year, next year at this time I would be 1,000 years behind in my reading.
The 1965 Medicare/Medicaid bill was 137 pages; Thirty years later, there were over 130,000 pages of rules to comply with.
The 1993 Clinton Healthcare Reform Act had 1,432 pages, called by one Democratic Senator "overwhelmingly complex, almost frighteningly complex."
The current healthcare reform act (Patient Protection & Affordable Care Act) is twice as large, at 2,800 pages, and will be the most complex and expensive issue in U.S. history--and, if the multiplier holds, will result in millions of pages of regulations.

We should be both alarmed and assured.

Alarmed, because there's no way we can handle numbers like these--particularly when they'll only continue to increase vertically. In the past, the math was mild, manageable, and comprehensible. Now, none of these descriptors apply. The math has gotten away from us, the numbers have gone rogue. Dysfunction? You want to see dysfunction? Stay tuned.

Assured, because God is particularly good at math. Oxford's mathematical physicist, Roger Penrose, has calculated that the precision of the created universe is on the order of 10 to the 10th to the 123rd. "This is an extraordinary figure," he writes. "One could not possibly even write the number down in full...Even if we were to write a zero on each separate proton and on each separate neutron in the entire universe, we should fall far short of writing down the figure needed."

"The Great Architect of the Universe now begins to appear as a pure mathematician," said Sir James Jeans, a contemporary of Einstein. "The universe can be best pictured, though still very imperfectly and inadequately, as consisting of pure thought, the thought of what we must describe as a mathematical thinker."

"Such as say that things infinite are past God's knowledge," wrote Augustine, "may just as well leap headlong into this pit of impiety, and say that God knows not all numbers...What madman would say so?...What are we mean wretches that dare presume to limit His knowledge?"

As for me and my house, we'll stick with the One who knows all numbers.

Did you know?

That the number of electrons that pass through a filament of a light bulb in a minute equals the number of drops of water that flow over Niagara Falls in a century?
That the number of electrons in a single leaf is much larger than the number of pores of all the leaves of all the trees in the world?
That the number of molecules in a pint of water placed end to end would form a chain encircling the Earth over 200 million times?
That of the 1030 snow crystals necessary to form an Ice Age, each snow flake--comprised of a hundred million trillion water molecules--is unique in all the universe?

Source: http://www.richardswenson.org

The Virtue Behind The Word

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 11:17:00 +0000

The fish trap exists because of the fish. Once you've gotten the fish you can forget the trap. The rabbit snare exists because of the rabbit. Once you've gotten the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words exist because of meaning. Once you've gotten the meaning, you can forget the words. Where can I find a man who has forgotten words so I can talk with him? ~Chuang Tzu

First of all, by this quote, as though I am reminded that sometimes we should capture the meanings behind the words. Eventhough in fact we doesn't always get it but for the positive thing it can be a useful to catch quickly the meaning that be contained in our friend's words...Yes, I should learn it more and more...

Second thing, It is reminded me also to learn the words seen incisive and rude but the truly meaning in it are to reminded, awaken and resuscitate us from something wrong....sooo once again we have to wise to deal with this kind of words.....reserve it first...serach the meaning....if it is to awaken us...transform it for our virtue...and otherwise to blame us with no reason....reject it as soon as possible.....continue your way to live the life...That is.....

Complete Solutions: Classic Exercises On Lateral Thinking

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 00:28:00 +0000

1. There is a man who lives on the top floor of a very tall building. Everyday he gets the elevator down to the ground floor to leave the building to go to work. Upon returning from work though, he can only travel half way up in the lift and has to walk the rest of the way unless it's raining! Why?

This is probably the best known and most celebrated of all lateral thinking puzzles. It is a true classic. Although there are many possible solutions which fit the initial conditions, only the canonical answer is truly satisfying.

2. A man and his son are in a car accident. The father dies on the scene, but the child is rushed to the hospital. When he arrives the surgeon says, "I can't operate on this boy, he is my son!" How can this be?

3. A man is wearing black. Black shoes, socks, trousers, coat, gloves and ski mask. He is walking down a back street with all the street lamps off. A black car is coming towards him with its light off but somehow manages to stop in time. How did the driver see the man?

4. One day Kerry celebrated her birthday. Two days later her older twin brother, Terry, celebrated his birthday. How?

5.. Why is it better to have round manhole covers than square ones? This is logical rather than lateral, but it is a good puzzle that can be solved by lateral thinking techniques. It is supposedly used by a very well-known software company as an interview question for prospective employees.

6. A man went to a party and drank some of the punch. He then left early. Everyone else at the party who drank the punch subsequently died of poisoning. Why did the man not die?

7. A man died and went to Heaven. There were thousands of other people there. They were all naked and all looked as they did at the age of 21. He looked around to see if there was anyone he recognized. He saw a couple and he knew immediately that they were Adam and Eve. How did he know?

8. A woman had two sons who were born on the same hour of the same day of the same year. But they were not twins. How could this be so?

9. A man walks into a bar and asks the barman for a glass of water. The barman pulls out a gun and points it at the man. The man says 'Thank you' and walks out. This puzzle claims to be the best of the genre. It is simple in its statement, absolutely baffling and yet with a completely satisfying solution. Most people struggle very hard to solve this one yet they like the answer when they hear it or have the satisfaction of figuring it out.

10. A murderer is condemned to death. He has to choose between three rooms. The first is full of raging fires, the second is full of assassins with loaded guns, and the third is full of lions that haven't eaten in 3 years. Which room is safest for him?

11. A woman shoots her husband. Then she holds him under water for over 5 minutes. Finally, she hangs him. But 5 minutes later they both go out together and enjoy a wonderful dinner together. How can this be?

12. There are two plastic jugs filled with water. How could you put all of this water into a barrel, without using the jugs or any dividers, and still tell which water came from which jug?

13. What is black when you buy it, red when you use it, and gray when you throw it away?

14. Can you name three consecutive days without using the words Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday? (or day names in any other language)

15. This is an unusual paragraph. I'm curious how quickly you can find out what is so unusual about it. It looks so plain you would think nothing was wrong with it. In fact, nothing is wrong with it! It is unusual though. Study it, and think about it, but you still may not find anything odd. But if you work at it a bit, you might find out.

Solutions

1. The man is very, very short and can only reach halfway up the elevator buttons. However, if it is raining then he will have his umbrella with him and can press the higher buttons with it.

2. The surgeon was his mother.

3. It was day time.

4. At the time she went into labor, the mother of the twins was traveling by ship. The older twin, Terry, was born first early on March 1st. The ship then crossed a time zone and Kerry, the younger twin, was born on February the 28th. Therefore, the younger twin celebrates her birthday two days before her older brother.

5. A square manhole cover can be turned and dropped down the diagonal of the manhole. A round manhole cannot be dropped down the manhole. So for safety and practicality, all manhole covers should be round.

6. The poison in the punch came from the ice cubes. When the man drank the punch, the ice was fully frozen. Gradually it melted, poisoning the punch.

7. He recognized Adam and Eve as the only people without navels. Because they were not born of women, they had never had umbilical cords and therefore they never had navels. This one seems perfectly logical but it can sometimes spark fierce theological arguments. (Just what a HUMOR list needs!!) ;

8. They were two of a set of triplets (or quadruplets, etc.). This puzzle stumps many people. They try outlandish solutions involving test-tube babies or surrogate mothers. Why does the brain search for complex solutions when there is a much simpler one available?

9.. The man had hiccups. The barman recognized this from his speech and drew the gun in order to give him a shock. It worked and cured the hiccups--so the man no longer needed the water. The is a simple puzzle to state but a difficult one to solve. It is a perfect example of a seemingly irrational and incongruous situation having a simple and complete explanation. Amazingly this classic puzzle seems to work in different cultures and languages.

10. The third. Lions that haven't eaten in three years are dead.

11. The woman was a photographer. She shot a picture of her husband, developed it, and hung it up to dry.

12. Freeze them first. Take them out of the jugs and put the ice in the barrel. You will be able to tell which water came from which jug.

13. The answer is Charcoal.

14.. Sure you can: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow!

15. The letter "e," which is the most common letter in the English language, does not appear once in the long paragraph...

Alternate Solutions

4. Because one of them did not necessarily celebrate their birthday on the day they were born, but celebrated later or earlier. Much simpler than having Mom giving birth while crossing the International Date Line and tossing in a Leap Year and the like. Needlessly complicated.

6. Because he was the one who put the poison in the punch. Of course he wouldn't drink any *after* he poisoned it. Who goes to the effort of making poison ice cubes, except Bond villains and those bad guys in the "Encyclopedia Brown" mystery stories we read in elementary school?

8. Because they were adopted. It's a coincidence they were born on the same exact day. OK, so Occam's Razor could be applied equally to both solutions...

Once Again About Judgement - A Deep Thought

noreply@blogger.com (dantonverdict) — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 01:08:00 +0000

Judgement means a stale state of mind. And mind always wants judgement,because to be in a process is always hazardous and uncomfortable.

This story happened in the days of Lao Tzu in China, and Lao Tzu loved it very much:

There was an old man in a village, very poor, but even kings were jealous of him because he had a beautiful white horse. Kings offered fabulous prizes for the horse, but the man would say, "This horse is not a horse to me, he is a person. And how can you sell a person, a friend?" The man was poor, but he never sold the horse.

One morning he found that the horse was not in the stable. The whole village gathered and said, "You foolish old man! We knew that someday the horse would be stolen. It would have been better to sell it. What a misfortune!"

The old man said, "Don't go so far as to say that. Simply say that the horse is not in the stable. This is the fact; everything else is judgement. Whether it is a misfortune or a blessing I don't know, because this is just a fragment. Who knows what is going to follow it?"

People laughed at the old man. They had always known he was a little crazy. But after fifteen days, suddenly one night the horse returned. He had not been stolen, he had escaped into the wild. And not only that he had brought a dozen wild horses with him.

Again the people gathered and they said, "Old man, you were right. This was not a misfortune, it has indeed proved to be a blessing."

The old man said, "Again you are going too far. Just say that the horse is back...who knows whether it is a blessing or not?" It is only a fragment. You read a single word in a sentence - how can you judge the whole book?"

This time the people could not say much, but inside they knew that he was wrong. Twelve beautiful horses had come.

The old man had an only son who started to train the horses. Just a week later he fell from a horse and his legs were broken. The people gathered again and again they judged. They said, "Again you proved right! It was a misfortune. your only son has lost the use of his legs, and in your old age he was your only support. Now you are poorer than ever."

The old man said, "You are obsessed with judgement. Don't go that far. Say only that my son had broken his legs. Life comes in fragments and more is never given to you."

It happened that after a few weeks the country went to war, and all the young men of the town were forcibly taken for the military. Only the old man's son was left because he was crippled. The whole town was crying and weeping, because it was a losing fight and they knew that most of the young people would never come back. They came to the old man and they said, "You were right, old man - this has proved a blessing. maybe your son is crippled, but he is still with you. Our sons are gone forever."

The old man said again, "You go on and on judging. Nobody knows! Only say this, that your sons have been forced to enter the army and my son has not been forced. But only God, the total, knows whether it is a blessing or a misfortune."

Judge not, otherwise you will never become one with the total. With fragments you will be obsessed, with small things you will jump to conclusions. Once you judge you have stopped growing. Judgement means a stale state of mind. And mind always wants judgement, because to be in a process is always hazardous and uncomfortable.

In fact the journey never ends. One path ends, another begins: one door closes, another opens. You reach a peak; a higher peak is always there. God is an endless journey. Only those who are so courageous that they don't bother about the goal but are content with the journey, content to just live in the moment and grow into it, only those are able to walk in the total.