Share Investor Blog

OCR cut puts pressure on investors seeking better returns

2008-12-02T00:01:00.002+13:00

The OCR rate cut coming this Thursday varies from 1-1.5% depending on which financial media commentator you are following but what is clear is that this cut isn't going to immediately stimulate any sector of the economy because most people have put their wallet away thinking there are cheaper bargains to be had.

What it will do is put pressure on many who have money to invest to go out and find a better return than the gross 6% (and dropping) interest rate they maybe getting for a term investment and the meager real returns still to be found in residential real estate for rentals-values for that sector still have a long way to fall and then will become more attractive return-wise.

I would contend that there are many good stocks on New Zealand's NZX that will find an attractive home for the vast amount of billions currently tied up in term investments in our three major banks.

With a 1.5% point cut on December 4 the OCR rate would be 5% and another likely cut early in 2009 would see our OCR fall below 5% putting pressure on investors coming back from holiday to go hunting for better returns in the stockmarket.

Look for higher yielding and safer large capital stocks to benefit from rate cuts.

A dozen or more Kiwi stocks are paying more than a 10% gross yield and companies like Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ] should do well from those bailing out of banks.

Eventually the rate cuts will work to stimulate our economy, just as tax cuts do.

I am hoping against hope that since the previous Government has guaranteed finance companies that no more term deposit money goes after their higher rates.

Related Share Investor reading

Time for OCR intervention by Dr Cullen
Alan Bollard's indecision over OCR a worry to NZ INC
Bollard sits on his hands

Related links

Labour backs dodgy finance companies
Interest.co.nz

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c Share Investor 2008

Dominos poised for another slice of Pizza Hut

2008-12-01T17:39:00.001+13:00

With the latest push by Domino's Australia [DMP.AX] for more market share released today it might well be worth another look at the hapless Pizza Hut.

Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] the operator of the Pizza Hut Brand in New Zealand, must be wondering what they can do next to stem the flow of customers from their doors to that of their main competitor Domino's Australia which operates 76 stores in New Zealand.

Their American style advertising, where they compare the size of a large Domino's pizza to theirs(see below) smacks of a little desperation and,well, it isn't working. Domino's are still kicking Pizza Huts oily little backside in the food quality, service and price areas of the pizza business.

Customers simply like the way Domino's does its business and they are voting with their feet.

This leaves Pizza Hut management with a big problem.

What do they do next to regain their lost sales?

I doubt whether management have the answer, for they have been trying to regain their lost mojo since Domino's entered the New Zealand market in 2003 and started getting a big slice of the action from the get-go.

I do recall a rather blase' reaction to Domino's arrival along the lines that Pizza Hut was such a dominant and strong player any new entrant was going to find things very difficult in "their" market.

This has been the hallmark of their reaction to competition until very recently and it seems it has been increasingly hard to shake that complacency.

Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

Domino's Australia Dominant in Australasia
RBD consider slicing off Pizza Hut
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
The dots get the hots
2007 FY profit analysis

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c Share Investor 2008

NZX Hangover from 1999 possible

2008-12-01T14:52:00.008+13:00

Looking at charts for the beginning my Long vs Short series I got a bit sidetracked-but still related- as you can on the internet and found to my horror that the chart for the NZSX50 index for the last 10 years(above) looks like the kind of chart that would plot the course of the Hindenburg shortly before it crashed.

To be fair the New Zealand stockmarket pretty much reflects the sad performance of the Dow Jones index when you compare the 5 year chart (below) but when you look back a further 5 years that is when things look as ugly as Paris Hilton having it off with her shih tzu.

The NZSX50 is currently at early 2005 levels and only has 800 points further to fall to get back to 1999 levels. It has lost 750 points in the last 3 months, so it is not beyond the bounds that our index will be having a flashback hangover early 2009 inspired by New Years Eve 1999.

Time to resurrect Prince.

Related Links

NZX50
NZX 15
NZX 50 Portfolio
NZX SmallCap
NZX MidCap
NZX Blog

Related Amazon reading

New Zealand Investor Monthly
Buy new: $53.70

c Share Investor 2008

Long vs Short: Mainfreight Ltd

2008-12-01T11:14:00.006+13:00

In the first of a series of 17, I am going to take look at the chart comparisons for stocks from the Share Investor Portfolio when comparing the 5 year return (above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view and will compare against the NZX50.

The first stock we will look at is Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] the global logistics company.

As one can see from the two large comparison charts if you have been a Mainfreight stockholder for 10 years your return has been over 300%. A magnificent return by anyone's standards.

Conversely if you look at the one year chart and bought Mainfreight a year ago your return is negative 30%.

Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
MFT.NZ	$4.80	$15000	$-7218.75

You own 3125 [MFT.NZ] shares purchased at $7.11 [$22218.75]

I have held Mainfreight shares for 2 years and as you can see from the chart above my 2 year return is around negative 33%.

Clearly the long-term view is the winner here and I would contend that if I hold for another 8 years the opportunity to gain similar returns to the last ten remains only if I continue to remain a shareholder.

I will also guess at this point that the next 16 posts in this series will show a similar story.

Keep checking back to see if my hunch is wrong!

Related Share Investor Reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Shareinvestorforum.com- Discuss this Share Investor Post

Related Links

Mainfreight Financial Data

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c Share Investor 2008

Share Investor now at Findata

2008-11-28T22:43:00.006+13:00

The guy in charge of content at Findata asked me to contribute some pieces for that site and so you can now find teasers of blogs from the Share Investor Blog if you are already a member of that site.

No money has passed under the table-mores the pity-so I am still going to be my occasionally objectionable self and "criticise" those individuals that don't pass financial muster.

The "community" part of the site is new but I have been using the data, news and analysis part of Findata for nearly a year.

Go take a look and if you like what I have to say ask the cheapskates there if they can pay me for my occasional gems of wisdom.

While I am here I highly recommend a blog called Trading Goddess It is irreverent, insightful, sexy and on the ball-give it a go why don't ya!

Related Links

Share Investor @ Findata
Findata
Trading Goddess Blog

c Share Investor 2008

Long-term gain, short term pain

2008-11-27T22:36:00.000+13:00

The 3 month chart for Sky City Entertainments stock price doesn't tell the full story.
As a long-term investment it has managed to hold up well during one of history's
greatest market downturns.

OK readers, this piece isn't about Sky City it is about the benefits of investing for the long-term.

My critics-and I have quite a few because not everyone has the same approach to investing- would say holding onto shares long-term is a losers game and while every share in my portfolio is currently losing money, except for Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, ASB Preference shares and Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ]- Fisher and Paykel was added to and ASB Prefs have only been in the portfolio for a short term, Sky City was the first share in the portfolio and has been the base since its inception in 2002.

I would silence my critics simply by saying my Sky City holding has still remained positive during one of histories great market downturns and that is simply because it has been in my portfolio for a reasonable time.

Granted, the stockmarket has further to fall but Sky City has been the bedrock of the Share Investor Portfolio and will continue to provide a safety net in the current market turmoil.

My other losing stocks will recover-a couple may fail entirely-and looking at the long-term again (and I would contend that you must) they will provide a good return for my hard earned shekels.

Keep in mind if you are brave enough (some would say stupid but not me)to buy stocks in the next few months that your stocks may fall further in prices but as long as you have done your research and picked a solid company you will come out the winner in the long-run.

Related Share Investor reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Long-term portfolio view wins the investing battle
10 Basic Buffett questions to ask before investing

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c Share Investor 2008

Marketwatch: Michael Hill International

2008-11-26T00:01:00.000+13:00

As you can see from the chart, Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ], the 200 plus store jewelry chain with stores in Australasia, Canada and most recently the United States, the share price is not looking great.

From a NZ$1.22 high over the last year down to a 59c closing price today, the company's shares are looking like a good buy.

What has kept the share price up consistently over many years was the regular increase in sales growth and profit that has historically just kept on coming.

Until now.

By no means is the slowdown due to anything else except recent rumblings over the global economic slump and various financial crises, so the negative impact on share price is nothing material about the viability of the business over the long-term but a macro economic factor that just cant be controlled by any business at the moment-sales and profit will be affected in the short to medium term.

This represents an opportunity rather than anything negative because once this economic slowdown is managed through Michael Hill should be back on its upwards trajectory again.

Now I am not saying go out and buy Michael Hill stock at current prices because the share price may well go further south before it goes north again but all financial indicators mark the company stock out as a screaming buy.

A current P/E ratio of 8.34 and a gross dividend payout of 8.68% alone make for attractive reading and historical financials should make any accountant leap for joy.

This is one of the stocks that I am looking at to add more of to the Share Investor Portfolio and will bide my time in current market conditions to hopefully get my fill at a lower price.

Related Share Investor reading

Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles

Essential Links:

Michael Hill Investor Information

From Amazon

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c Share Investor 2008

Pumpkin Patch buy-back shows confidence in future

2008-11-24T19:46:00.007+13:00

I was in the process of writing something about the obvious merits of buying Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] shares at prices of around 85c when I heard the news that management have decided that their shares are a bargain too.

Pumpkin Patch are planning a share buyback of up to 8.5 million shares beginning 28 November ending on 23 November 2009.

This is good management of shareholders capital at a time when the share price has slid more than 80% to the pre-IPO level of NZ$1.25.

It also shows managements long term faith in the company's future and from the amount I have written about the subject I clearly agree.

It makes me wonder whether Jan Cameron and and Rod Duke are going to add anymore shares now that their large stakes 1.Cameron 2. Duke in the Pumpkin have nearly halved in value since July and March this year.

Pumpkin Patch shares have been marked down recently because of the slow down in the global economy, especially affecting the retail sector, and their big hit in full year profit announced in September.

The news of the share buyback today sent shares rocketing more than 10c or 13.5% on low volume.

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying
Why Did you but that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Related links

2008 Full Year Profit

Pumpkin Patch- Investor relations
Pumpkin Patch- The clothing

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c Share Investor 2008

Follow Share Investor's Portfolio

2008-11-24T13:14:00.006+13:00

You can follow the Share Investor Portfolio now by scrolling down the left hand side of any page of the blog and go to the "Share Investor's Portfolio" module. Each stock in my portfolio is listed there with a 20 min delayed feed of prices from Yahoo Finance and associated charts, news and NZX releases for the day.

See how badly or well it is doing.

Here is what it looks like:

ASB Capital No.2	0.85	-0.007	(-0.82%)
Auckland International	1.66	0.05	(3.11%)
Briscoe Group Ltd	0.75	0	(0.00%)
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare	3.01	-0.04	(-1.31%)
Fletcher Building	5.55	0.13	(2.40%)
Freightways Ltd	2.9	-0.03	(-1.02%)
Goodman Fielder Ltd	1.8	0	(0.00%)
Hallenstein Glasson	2.28	0	(0.00%)
Kiwi Income Property	1.04	0	(0.00%)
Mainfreight Ltd	4.25	0.04	(0.95%)
Michael Hill International	0.57	0.02	(3.64%)
Postie Plus Group	0.3	0	(0.00%)
Pumpkin Patch Ltd	0.93	0.13	(16.25%)
Ryman Healthcare	1.45	0.05	(3.57%)
Sky City Entertainment	2.98	0.01	(0.34%)
Steel & Tube Holdings	2.7	0	(0.00%)
The Warehouse Group	3.6	0.03	(0.84%)

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c Share Investor 2008

Ruminations, meanderings and recriminations

2008-11-24T07:40:00.008+13:00

So many bargains!!

Come one, come all, its a giant pre-Christmas sale of listed NZX and foreign stocks.

Ah, Mainfreight's shares might be traveling south, Michael Hill's may have lost their sparkle and Pumpkin Patch's share price looks like it could reach the same figures as some of its clothing sizes but if you think stocks are cheap now just wait until the New Year sales.

To be fair markets have now overreacted-they always do whether up or down- to the credit crunch and its associated impacts and we now seem to be running on negative emotion caused by over zealous finance media ready to make a name for themselves and their media owners whose headlines grab at sensationalism in order to sell advertising.

This media inspired negativity is set to continue well into 2009 and the New Zealand stockmarket is unlikely to see any stability until next spring with an upturn looking promising for the 2010 year.

I thought I would be a smart arse sort of guy and buy beaten down stocks a few months back but my Pumpkin Patch purchase back in June at NZ$1.53 has nearly halved on Fridays closing price, my Michael Hill purchase of the same month went from 82c to below 60c and my Briscoes "bargain" is back in the high 70 cent range.

The only upside buy was my clear expertise led delve back into Fisher and Paykel Healthcare[FPH.NZ] Bought at $2.33 this stock is currently above 3 bucks and has at times been above $3.20, just going to prove that timing the market isn't the easiest thing to do-for me anyway.

To be fair the upside for Fishers was clear to the market because sales were going to be up and the US dollar strength meant that repatriated funds back to head office in New Zealand would be well up, so the only mistake I made there was not to buy more.

This will be one stock whose sales and profit will hold up during this economic downturn and any substantial stock slump below $2.35 will see me back in.

Having spilt my guts about some of my stock meanderings over the last few months I am nevertheless in it for the long haul and my purchases fit my investment profile and ability to eat should everything become worthless in 12 months time.

Having said that I am still very tempted to get the checkbook out again for some more "bargains" but human nature being what it is I am going to wait until prices drop further latter on in 2009.

I am looking at buying more Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] which is still doing well, Pumpkin Patch[PPL.NZ], which is struggling in North America, Britain and New Zealand, Michael Hill International[MHI.NZ], which is holding up so far, Fletcher Building [FBU.NZ] which is in the middle of a residential building slump and Briscoe[BGR.NZ]which is having the Christmas sale to end all sales at present.

So I am still optomistic for the economy and the stockmarket long-term. Short term?

Its a fools game.

Related Share Investor reading

Share Investor Portfolio: Taking a beating
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building]

Shareinvestorforum.com-Discuss this Share Investor Post

From Amazon

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c Share Investor 2008

Hanover's "White Knights" are really daylight robbers

2008-11-23T09:30:00.008+13:00

Some of the tripe written recently about how positive the "rescue package" that owners of Hanover Finance have put forward this week has me concerned because it presents a false picture of what is going on at Hanover now, and what has happened with the company in the past.

This from Phillip Macalister of Good Returns, a company that used to advertise on its websites and magazines for Hanover:

"It has been pretty open about its situation and its plans. That is a major plus." Phil's Blog, Nov 2008

When asked if he thought that the deal would silence all the critics he said: “I don’t think there’s any solution which would deliver that.”

The package being put forward though is designed to show that the “shareholders are standing up and supporting the business in its time of need.”

Also it makes sure that there is a future for the business. Good Returns, News Centre Sept 2008

Macalister contends that Hanover and its two top monkeys, Eric Watson and Mark Hotchin have been "pretty open" about the situation of the company but nothing could be further from the truth.

If one did just a little googling one could find a plethora of writing from credible investigative journos that would give lie to Phil's assertions. Unfortunately many of the 16000 investors in Hanover are of an age that they think googling might be related to self abuse rather than information that they would find illuminating about Hanover.

As far back as 2004, Deborah Hill Cone-ironically writing in a piece originally written for the National Business Review but reprinted in one of Macalister's websites-discovered there was trouble brewing for Hanover and its 16000 investors:

But if you want to write anything about Hanover Group itself why it has more than $100 million tied up in related party loans, say, or why it lent money to the sad sacks signing up for conman Henry Kaye's seminars or even the seemingly simple question of why it doesn't file consolidated accounts that's not considered quite so charming. Deborah Hill Cone, The Secretive Rise of the House of Hanover, Sharechat, March 2004

Just in the last two years alone the NZ Herald reports that $NZ86.5 million in dividends were creamed from Hanover and went to Watson and Hotchin:

Hanover Finance yesterday told the Herald that of $86.5 million in dividends it had paid out to Mr Watson and Mr Hotchin over the last two years, just over $70 million had been used by them or their companies to repay "related party" loans. Investigators swoop on Hanover, NZ Herald, July 2008.

But as Deborah wrote back in 2004, financial figures supplied by Watson and Hotchin for Hanover don't show the full picture because of the vast amount of inter-party lending and the complex nature in the way Hanover and its dozens of interrelated companies are structured is able to disguise inter-party lending so that Eric and Mark could even buy a super yacht with depositors money.

Why aren't accounts filed for Hanover that would show the consolidated picture for the whole group?

Karen Toner, one of the authors of KPMG's Financial Institution survey laughs when I say I'd like to see the consolidated figures for Hanover Group.

"Wouldn't we all? I think everyone in the industry would like to know that."

The group has a complex structure, with Hanover Group Holdings as the overall holding company and Elders Finance and Nationwide Finance subsidiaries of Hanover Financial Services. Elders is the parent company of subsidiaries United Finance, Leasing Solutions and FAI Finance.

Another finance company, Onesource Finance, is owned by Hanover Group, a separate subsidiary of Hanover Group Holdings. Deborah Hill Cone, The Secretive Rise of the House of Hanover, Sharechat, March 2004

Now the way Hanover was structured and its vast amount of inter party lending-that is lending that personally lined the pockets of Eric Watson and Mark Hotchin-may not be different from the 2 dozen or so finance companies that have done investors dough over the last two years but for Greg Muir, the outgoing chairman of Hanover, to come out today on behalf of the dastardly duo to make them look like white knights coming to the rescue of investors and they should all be grateful and in awe of their generosity has got to be the joke of the year:

"I can't talk about their personal motivations, I don't know what they are...all I can say is I think the shareholders have dug into their pockets as deeply as they feel they possibly can and this is the best result they can deliver." Hotchin told the Star-Times that shareholders had no obligation to put in more money but had done so because they wanted the company to keep going and repay investors. "I personally don't owe that money [to investors], neither does Eric, the company does, but we're pledging fresh money to help ensure they get back their principal. Hanover Duo Dig Deep, Sunday Star Times, Nov 2008

Morally, the principal duo do owe investors in Hanover because they extracted at least NZ$300 million from the company since 2001 and possibly as much as half a billion, which puts this weeks offer of $56 million of cash and dubiuos "assets" in some context.

The most recent publicly available Elders accounts, for the year to June 2003, show related party transactions of $93.5 million, up from $83.6 million in 2002, and $67.7 million in 2001. ShareChat, March 2004

Hanover Finance yesterday told the Herald that of $86.5 million in dividends it had paid out to Mr Watson and Mr Hotchin over the last two years. NZ Herald, July 2008

This easy money went to themselves and other "related parties" but hey according to Hotchin there is nothing personal about it, it is the Hanover business that owes 16000 investors more than half a billion bucks.

Go figure.

Related Share Investor reading

Hanover collapse: It was just a matter of time
Money Managers Saga: 3 Story wrap
Money Managers gives First Step investors the middle finger
Greed is bad: Geneva Finance Folds
Financial 101: Learn before you leap
Kevin's Blog

Coke is it

2008-11-21T08:00:00.000+13:00

People love it, it is ones of the worlds most enduring and loved brands. Warren Buffett loves it and has a massive shareholding in the American icon.

In this day and age of dwindling fortunes and sagging sales this brand is a stalwart and Lion Nathan [LNN.NZX], the Australasian brewer, wants a piece of the Australian company that makes the black sticky concoction in this part of the world, Coca-Cola Amatil [CCL.ASX]

Lion Nathan previously owned the loss-making Pepsi franchise in Australasia so clearly see a non-alcoholic soda drinks company as integral to its alcohol brands.

Buffett calls companies like Coca-Cola Amatil "economic moats". That is, a company that has a strong brand and a product that is unique, enduring, easy to understand and sells, even during hard times.

Lion Nathan execs must have been reading some of Warrens screeds of pronouncements on his investing principles because they have their target right. The only problem being they haven't offered CCL Amital stockholders enough for their sweet black goldmine.

Lion have offered only AU$ 7.7 billion for Coca-Cola Amatil . The cash and stock bid, made at a 25 per cent premium to cokes share price, has been roundly criticised by CCA management as "unattractive" and "complicated". The offer from Lion gives Coke shareholders stock in Lion Nathan which is majority controlled by Kirin, the Japanese brewer.

The parent company and approx 30% shareholder in CCA will not comment on the matter but its CFO said last month to analysts:

"if the purchaser had the financial and the management resources to really grow that market for the long term, and that when selling we would sell if at fair value."

The stock and cash offer, even at a 25% premium is still below "fair value" and its is unclear as to whether Lion's management would grow the Coke brand and its other products long-term but of course the answer to that would be why wouldn't they?

The CCL Amital parent company, The Coca-Cola Company [NYSE: KO], wouldn't necessarily go for a higher price for their 30% shareholding but a company that would provide a higher return for their providing the syrup for finished product, which they get whoever owns CCL Amital.

Coke is a strong brand with a massive market share in this part of the world and that and its other strong brands; Fanta, Sprite, Lift, Lift Plus, Powerade, L&P and Schweppes make Lions initial bid too low by far.

Hang on CCL stockholders, don't sell yet.

Related Links

Buffett and Coke

CCA Shareholder centre

Complete
2007 annual report
PDF format (802kb)

Complete
2007 Shareholder Review
PDF format (2.6mb)

Notice of Meeting
PDF format (235kb)

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c Share Investor 2008