Dateline Tbilisi

Manas no más (no more)

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 06:30:00 +0000

Kyrgyzstan delivered an eviction notice for the U.S. Manas air base to the embassy in Bishkek last Friday, Feb. 20.

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The Kyrgyz parliament supported President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's announcement on Feb. 3, 2009, that the U.S. would no longer be allowed to use the airport to support operations in Afghanistan.

Saban Kardas, of the Jamestown Foundation, wonders if closing Manas will strengthen U.S.-Turkish relations?

Dateline Tbilisi gets new direction

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 23:17:00 +0000

Dateline Tbilisi is refining its purpose, and taking a slightly new direction. The blog began as a way to complement my reporting from Tbilisi this past fall. However, the blog is now embarking on a more ambitious path.

In the interest of encouraging a deeper, more diverse understanding of Georgia and its place in the 21st century, Dateline Tbilisi will publish news analysis, commentary and policy analysis and recommendations. To help in this endeavor, I have invited several friends, colleagues and mentors to contribute to the blog. Some are in Georgia, while others are in the U.S. Each contributor brings a valuable experience and insight to the community of people interested in Georgia, the Caucasus and U.S. relations with the area.

Time for Obama to step up

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 08:05:00 +0000

It is time for President Barack Obama to get serious about stepping up operations in Afghanistan, a key promise of his campaign platform.

U.S. and coalition forces fighting Afghanistan's resurgent Taliban are in danger of losing a critical support facility -- the Manas airbase in nearby Kyrgyzstan.

Recently, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said the base would be closed. The announcement came while he was in Moscow, which said it would be giving the impoverished Central Asian country $2 billion in a credit package, greatly trumping the nearly $170 million the U.S. sends to Kyrgyzstan every year ($20 million for the lease on Manas). It isn't difficult to see who was pulling the strings.

Now is not the time for the U.S. to simply hit the "reset" button on relations with Russia, as Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference.

Losing Manas will hurt U.S. and coalition forces' ability to make good on Pres. Obama's promise to American voters and Afghanistan to subdue a reinvigorated Taliban.

The base near Bishkek is a transfer point for supplies and U.S. and European troops moving into Afghanistan. U.S. and French tankers fly refueling missions to aircraft fighting in Afghanistan. Spanish transport planes also use the facility. The U.S. had planned to expand the fbase when the announcement came.

In 2008, U.S. tankers flew nearly 3,300 refueling missions to over 11,400 aircraft above Afghanistan. More than 170,000 coalition personnel passed through Manas going to and coming from Afghanistan, along with 5,000 short tons of cargo, including uniforms and spare parts.

Now is not the time to let Russia buy off Kyrgyzstan.

The Pentagon has said it is negotiating with Bishkek, and a compromise is possible. Bakiyev made a pragmatic decision, and might reconsider it for more money. But the U.S. cannot think it can simply buy its way out of the problem, because it is about more than simply money.

Geography is a real factor in the matter. Find Kyrgyzstan on a globe. Russia is much closer to it than the U.S. What good can an ally half-way around the world do for a landlocked country in Russia's shadow? The U.S. showed its shortcomings this past summer when it was unable to help Georgia.

Overreach is partly to blame. As operations in Iraq are scaled back, the U.S. will recover some tactical flexibilty to respond to pressing issues. But a deeper issue is that the U.S. does not have a clear idea of its relationships with would-be allies in Russia's "Near Abroad."

Moscow knows exactly what are its expectations for its relations with those countries, and what it is prepared to do to preserve its influence in the "Near Abroad." Russia is the only country in the world that has such a clearly defined sphere of influence, which it wants the U.S. out of.

However, despite the many wrinkles in U.S.-Russian relations, the two could find common ground that would allow the U.S. to remain in Manas - counter-terrorism. It would mean the U.S. might have to condone or turn a blind eye to some of Russia's very questionable behavior classified as "counter-terrorism." And it is a longshot.

Regardless of what happens with Manas, the U.S. must a clear idea of what its goals are and what it is prepared to do to achieve those goals whenever it engages a country that Russia considers to be in its backyard.

Opposition agrees on ousting Saakashvili but not much else

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:41:00 +0000

Twelve opposition parties called for Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation, but there appears to be little concerted momentum behind their declaration.

Civil.ge reports Davit Gamkrelidze, the leader New Rights (Conservative) Party, said all parties were united behind removing Saakashvili, but their tactics might vary.

As a friend of mine once said: "Even if all Georgia wanted to throw Misha away, how would they agree on a date?"

Nonetheless, the concensus among the opposition is that Saakashvili will be gone by year's end. However, they don't seem to know how it'll happen.

Many believe U.S. Pres. Barack Obama will help by tying aid to democratic reform.

"Maybe it will take a year or two, but I am sure these reforms (media, electoral code, law enforcement agencies, human rights) will lead to the resignation of Saakashvili, because he can't act under free political environment," Kahka Kukava, leader of the Conservative Party, wrote in an e-mail to me recently.

Also, Kukava wrote, as Obama tries to restore America's standing abroad, he will not tolerate allies who might undermine his efforts, such as Saakashvili.

Of course, this assumes that the Obama administration believes Tbilisi (and especially Saakashvili) was responsible for starting the August war.

On the other side, as talks about Nabucco come up again, the U.S. will want stability above all else in Georgia, be it from Saakashvili or someone else. Saakashvili has appointed former-PM Lado Gurgenidze to lobby for Nabucco. Gurgenidze was very successful in attracting foreign investment to Georgia.

Joshua Kucera at Eurasianet.com reports that Turkey (and Russia, of course) might be a roadblock to U.S. energy policy (including Nabucco) in the Caspian Basin.

On another note:
The recent alliance between the Republican Party and New Rights Party was somewhat surprising. Both certainly want to see Saakashvili go, but the Republicans have focused more on institutional reform while Gamkrelidze has focused more on changing the head of state. Of course, the New Rights Party has a bigger support base.

US-Georgia sign charter before Bush departs

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 18:39:00 +0000

Israel isn't the only country attending to its agenda in the waning days of the Bush administration. Georgia and the United States signed a strategic partnership charter today, reiterating U.S. support for Georgia's territorial integrity and NATO membership aspirations.

“The U.S. supports and will always support Georgia’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity, as well as its Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice said, according to Civil.ge.

The charter is non-binding, but emphasizes US security and economic ties with Georgia. Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze stressed the importance of these connections during a teleconference with international press this morning.

The military ties seem to shift U.S. support towards more traditional military aid. Prior U.S. aid had focused a great deal on training Georgian troops to serve as peacekeepers in Iraq, which was not very useful during fighting in South Ossetia in August. The charter pledges U.S. support to helping Georgia increase its self-defense capabilities to NATO standards.

Vashadze did not specify what form the aid would take. In the past, the U.S. has not given Georgia some of its most advanced defensive weapons system, such as Stinger ground-to-air missiles or Javelin anti-tank missiles.

While the charter is non-binding, Vashadze said "military cooperation [will begin] in the very, very near future."

No doubt Georgia's leadership was eager to sign the charter before U.S. Pres. George W. Bush leaves office later this month. Pres.-elect Barack Obama has indicated he is less willing than his successor to send U.S. military aid overseas.

"The charter was agreed upon with the incoming administration," Vashadze said, but he declined to specify which officials from Obama's administration were involved.

Ossetian activist accused of ties to KGB

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 05:16:00 +0000

Lira Tskhovrebova is an unconventional woman. In South Ossetia for over a decaed, she has brought Ossetian and Georgian residents, mostly women, together in conflict-resolution workshops. After the war in August, she sought to engage the Georgian diaspora in conflict resolution. This month she traveled to Washington, DC, to directly take on the United States' support of Georgia and Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili. But Ms. Tskhovrebova might have ties to South Ossetia's KGB, according to materials The Associated Press received from the Georgian government.

Senior US State Department official Matthew Bryza canceled a meeting with Ms. Tskhovrebova after the AP asked him about the allegations. The State Department is trying to set up another meeting, according to the AFP.

The Georgian government gave the AP transcripts of intercepted calls between Ms. Tskhovrebova and Vasily Guliyev, deputy director for counterintelligence for the South Ossetian security agency still known by the Soviet-era acronym KGB.

Ms. Tskhovrebova said she talked regularly with Mr. Guliyev, who she told the AP is a family friend.

The AP's video of their interview:

Head of Russian Church's death rocks Russia

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 03:52:00 +0000

Alexiy II, the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, died this morning in his Moscow residence, leaving many across Russia in mourning.

Elected in 1990, Alexiy II steered the church through the chaotic years following the Soviet Union's collapse, when the church saw a resurgence.

This fall Alexiy II sought to live up to the idea that blessed are the peacemakers, or at least blessed are those that don't instigate, when he kept the Russian Church out of the conflict in Georgia. Following the August war between Georgia and Russia, Georgian Orthodox churches in South Ossetia asked to come under Moscow's jurisdiction. But Alexiy II said the church would not get involved in a political issue.

Georgia's own patriarch has been ill lately, and had to receive major surgery recently.

Russian Ruble: dropping...and still dropping

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 00:16:00 +0000

Russia weakened the ruble for the fourth time in a month as crude oil fell under $40 a barrel this week, according to Bloomberg.

The Kremlin has been fighting to shore up the ruble, drawing heavily on its vast foreign reserves. However its piecemeal attempts to strengthen the ruble could undermine its own efforts. This gradual approach has primed expectations of further devaluation. Companies and individuals have been converting rubles into foreign currencies, which could exacerbate the situation.

Russia is facing its most severe economic and financial crises since 1998. Window on Eurasia's Paul Goble thinks the actions of Russia's leaders are worried the situation could spark social and political unrest.

Putin rules out early Kremlin bid

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:25:00 +0000

Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ruled out an early return to the Kremlin as the country's president. Putin was Russia's president until May 2008, when he was succeeded by Dmitry Medvedev.

Despite leaving the presidency, many analysts and Russians see Putin as still in charge of the country's vast territory. Russia's legislature recently lengthened the president's term to six years, a move which Western media widely saw as a precursor to Putin's return to the presidency.

Putin did not run for re-election in 2008 because the Russian constitution limits the president to serving two terms. Putin's supporters have questioned whether the limit is two terms in total or merely consecutively. If it were the latter, Putin could potentially return as Russia's president. Such a move would undoubtedly be welcomed by the public, among who Putin is widely popular.

Rest assured that until that day Putin will continue to run the Kremlin unofficially.

Report: Abkhazia to UN: don't leave us alone with Russians

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:53:00 +0000

Abkhaz officials have told Western diplomats they want United Nations observers to remain in some capacity so they are not left alone with Russian troops, according to a report issued recently by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

The future of the current UN observer mission is uncertain. Its mandate was extended four months in early October, but Moscow wants a new mission for Abkhazia, which it recognizes as an independent country.

Georgia has cut ties with Nicaragua, the only other country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries.

Who fired at presidential convoy?

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 19:03:00 +0000

SEATTLE -- Both Pres. Mikheil Saakaskvili and his guest, Poland's Pres. Lech Kaczynski, have said Russia is responsible for the gunfire that their convoy came under. Russia firmly denies the allegation.

Tbilisi has declared the shots to be an act of "terrorism." (The shooting occurred near a checkpoint I reported from in October.)

There is an unconfirmed report that Russia might have orchestrated the shooting. Supposedly Kommersant has printed an admission from a Russian official, but I didn't see anything during a quick check of their website (in Russian or English).

Timeline of August war

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:45:00 +0000

This timeline is for the preceding post about the outbreak of the war. It was compiled from news sources and my reporting.

2008:

July: Increase in shootings between separatists and Georgian forces across South Ossetia’s de facto borders. Both sides improve military positions. Georgia and South Ossetia’s de facto government accuse each other of escalating the situation.

Aug. 1: Convoy carrying Dmitry Sanakoev, leader of Georgian-controlled South Ossetia, is attacked, injuring 5 policemen.

Aug. 1-2: Intense fighting overnight in South Ossetia leaves at least 6 dead and 22 injured on both sides. Heavier mortars are fired than previously used.

Aug. 3: Sporadic shelling and shooting continues.

Aug. 5: Increased shooting and shelling in Georgian- and separatist-controlled villages around Tskhinvali, de facto capital of South Ossetia. EU and US call for negotiations.

Aug. 6: Georgian combat troops begin moving towards front lines near Tskhinvali.

Aug. 7: Shooting and shelling continue in the morning and early afternoon. Georgian military observers are ordered to leave posts of joint Russian-Georgian peacekeeping forces.

1 PM: Part of Georgia’s National Security Council meets to discuss situation. On Sept. 15, Georgia says it had intelligence that Russians troops had illegally entered South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Council tells Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili that a “red line” has been crossed, according to several members.

Negotiations between Georgia, South Ossetia and Russia fall apart.

7 PM: Saakashvili announces unilateral ceasefire on television.

Several Georgian-controlled villages are shelled. Russian peacekeepers say separatist-controlled village of Khetagurovo is shelled.

11:30 PM: Georgian artillery opens fire on Tskhinvali without announcing end of cease fire. Saakashvili orders military to stop Russian military units entering Georgia, suppress separatists artillery and protect civilians.

Aug. 8: Additional Russian forces begin moving into Georgia following shelling of Tskhinvali.

Morning: Georgian forces assault Tskhinvali. They control most of city by early afternoon. Russian jets bomb Georgian positions and towns.

10:30 PM: Georgian forces retreat from Tskhinvali after clashing with advance Russian troops.

Aug. 9: Russian military planes bombarded the Georgian port Poti and its military base in Senaki.

Abkhazia started a military operation against Georgia in Kodori Gorge.

Aug. 10: Russian patrols enter Gori, and pull out before city is bombarded by planes and artillery.

Aug. 11: Russian planes bomb outskirts of Tbilisi. Russian troops gain control of Gori.

Aug. 12: Russia and Georgia agree to peace plan proposed by French Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy.

Russian Pres. Dmitry Medvedev declares end of Russian peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Aug. 13: US humanitarian aid arrives in Tbilisi.

Aug. 15: Saakashvili signs peace plan.

Aug. 16: Medvedev signs peace plan. Russian forces enter Georgian-controlled Akhalgori District.

Ex-Monitor: Georgia's response disproportionate

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:38:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- The former head of a European monitoring team in Georgia says the Tbilisi government is responsible for escalating violence in the Caucasus that led to the deaths of hundreds of civilians in August.

Georgia asserts that it began shelling the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali after four villages under Georgian control came under attack after a cease-fire declared on Aug. 7.

Ryan Grist, head of a team of monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said that while his team members had not visited the villages, they did not hear any shelling in the one closest to Tskhinvali.

"If there had been any provocations, the response from the Georgian side was disproportionate," Mr. Grist said.

A human rights monitor in conflict zones for 16 years, Mr. Grist resigned shortly after the August war. He would not give a reason.

Rights groups have accused both Georgia and Russia of using indiscriminate force that killed and injured civilians.

Both sides said they were aiming at specific military targets, but they used non-precision weapons.

Russia has reported 159 civilian and 64 combatant deaths including South Ossetian forces. Georgia said 220 civilians and 185 soldiers died and 2,234 were wounded, of whom 1,964 were combatants.

The London-based rights group Amnesty International said in a report released last week that "serious violations of both international human rights law and international humanitarian law were committed by all parties."

Human Rights Watch reached a similar conclusion, but has not published its report yet, said Giorgi Gogia, a researcher in its Tbilisi office.

Residents of the region were used to violence after 15 years of intermittent shelling and shooting, but neither Georgians nor Ossetians were prepared for cluster bombs, massed artillery barrages and bombing.

Georgia and Russia disagree over who started the fighting.

Georgia says it broke a self-imposed cease-fire — announced by President Mikhail Saakashvili at 7 p.m. on Aug. 7 — to respond to Russian firing on Georgian-controlled villages from South Ossetian lines.

"Russia started the shooting; Russia started the invasion," Mr. Saakashvili said in a recent interview with The Washington Times.

However, there is no definitive evidence of when Russian soldiers and armored vehicles entered South Ossetia. The Georgian government claims they arrived by midday Aug. 7. Russia says its forces entered on Aug. 8 only after Georgia shelled the South Ossetian capital.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a Sept. 18 speech, said the fighting began "following repeated violations of the cease-fire in South Ossetia, including the shelling of Georgian villages." But she continued, "the Georgian government launched a major military operation into Tskhinvali and other areas of the separatist region."

The Georgian government has not said that Russian combat troops were in the capital, Tskhinvali, when it began its artillery barrage.

Three OSCE monitors and local staff were in their homes around Tskhinvali when the barrage began. Mr. Grist said they told him over the phone that there were explosions every 15 to 20 seconds.

At 11:40 p.m., "explosions of undistinguishable origin" buffeted Lira Tskhovrebova's house in Tskhinvali. She and her husband crouched in the corners of a hallway until the shelling stopped the next morning.

"I understood that God loves me, because my children were not with us," she said.

Alexandre Lomaia, secretary of Georgia's national security council, told a parliamentary commission that Georgian forces fired at military targets using precision weapons.

However, Amnesty International reported that Georgia used "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers and found damage a quarter-mile away from any military target.

In the week before full-fledged fighting erupted, both sides exchanged light arms and mortar fire. Small skirmishes have kept the conflict simmering since a 1992-93 war between separatists and Georgia.

Kurta, a Georgian-controlled village, was the target of mortar and light arms fire from South Ossetian lines on Aug. 6 and 7, including after the cease-fire had been announced, according to several villagers.

"What cease-fire? It was announced, but there was no cease-fire. There was still fighting," said Gocha Nabardinshvili, 29, who lived in Kurta with his parents and two brothers.

Budiko Kandelaki, a former second secretary of the Communist Party in Tskhinvali, said a mortar shell from South Ossetian lines on Aug. 3 ripped through his house in Nikosi, about half a mile south of Tskhinvali. Nikosi came under heavier shelling from South Ossetia on Aug. 6, he said.

"There'd never been anything like on the 6th before," he said.

A combined patrol by peacekeeping forces and the OSCE confirmed "isolated incidents" of mortar fire on Nikosi before the war, Mr. Grist said.

The Russian government acknowledges that it bombed military targets in Gori and Georgian villages from Aug. 8 to 11.

Kelly Uphoff, a Peace Corps volunteer living in Gori, was on the street when jets passed overhead on the morning of Aug. 8. She heard the whistle of falling bombs, and started running.

"You didn't know which way to run. You couldn't see where the bomb was going," said Ms. Uphoff, 25. She and her co-workers hid in the basement of their office.

Amnesty International found several instances of bombing of civilian areas in Gori. Ms. Uphoff said bombs hit a wedding hall, three apartment buildings and a furniture storage building for Gori University.

"Either their intelligence was off or their aim is terrible," she said. She left before the town was occupied by Russian and South Ossetian forces on Aug. 11.

Russia has recognized South Ossetia and another breakaway enclave, Abkhazia, as independent states. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in Washington last week that Russia would have nothing to do with Georgia while Mr. Saakashvili is in charge.

The United Nations says nearly 200,000 people were driven from their homes by the fighting. Most have returned, but Amnesty International estimates 24,000 people are still displaced and says the atmosphere along the border remains tense.

Many of these people are ethnic Georgians who had lived in South Ossetia.

In Nikosi, Mr. Kandelaki held a bottle of pills for calming his heart while he showed a reporter the battle scars of his home.

During the fighting, South Ossetian paramilitary fighters tied him to a tree in his yard, and Russian soldiers found and untied him later, he said.

"The ones in uniform were fine. Ossetian, Russians ... in a uniform, they were decent. But the ones in civilian clothes, they were different," he said.

They stole most of his possessions.

"I'd offer you wine, but I have none," he said. "Not even glasses."

What I learned about Georgia

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 16:52:00 +0000

SEATTLE, Washington -- I returned from Tbilisi late Wednesday night. It'd been nearly two and a half months since I'd seen my wife. Needless to say, it was amazing when I saw her at the airport, waiting at the top of the stairs where arrivals come out. I sprinted up the stairs, and we threw ourselves into each others arms. It's good to be home.

My time in Georgia was incredible. It's an amazing country with wonderful people. Hopefully, one day I'll be able to visit South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and I'm sure I'll be able to say the same about them.

Here are four things I learned about Georgia:

1. The Georgian national anthem is a car horn honking;
2. Restaurants only use bendy straws;
3. Sidewalk = parking lot; and
4. The hardest thing for a visiting foreigner to do in Georgia is pay for a meal.

Georgia is one of the few places where a person can still be a 'Renaissance Man', and nearly anything is possible for a Westerner in Tbilisi.

I have a lot of material to post that I haven't gotten around to, so please stay tuned. I will also do some reporting from here (as much as possible over the phone) and regular news wrap ups concerning Georgia, the Caucasus and Russia.

For the time being I'll be keeping the blog's name - Dateline Tbilisi - and just ignore the geographical discrepancy. Space and time are relative, after all.

Please stay tuned.

New Tbilisi-NYC flight starting by 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:49:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- An American-Georgian company, Sky Georgia, is planning to begin a direct flight from New York to Tbilisi by the end of the year, according to NewsGeorgia. No details on frequency or price of flights.

Activists entreat Obama to bring change

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 06:59:00 +0000

Opposition activists called on US President-elect Barack
Obama to press for democratic reform in Georgia.

TBILISI, Georgia -- Opposition protesters demonstrated Friday against President Mikheil Saakashvili's government and urged President-elect Barack Obama to help bring political change to Georgia.

The protests were the first since Georgia lost a war with Russia in August and occurred on the first anniversary of a similar demonstration the government dispersed with tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets.

An estimated 10,000 demonstrators assembled outside the parliament building. Several thousand more joined a rally outside the presidential residence.

The numbers were about a fifth of those who turned out a year ago, highlighting the fractured nature of the opposition. Two opposition parties - the Christian Democrats and the Republican Party - did not participate, citing the need for postwar unity.

Those who did take part accused the Bush administration of ignoring election fixing and media suppression by the Georgian government. Several protest leaders said they hoped Mr. Obama would pressure Mr. Saakashvili into holding early elections next spring.

"In the name of the tens of thousands here, we want to congratulate the American people with the choice of Barack Obama," Conservative Party leader Kakha Kukava told the crowd outside the presidential residence. "It's a new hope for people all over the world,"

"We believe in Obama. We trust Obama," one poster declared in Georgian.

Read the rest at the Washington Times.

Russia: Congrats Obama; look at our missiles

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:41:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- In case you haven't heard, Russia welcomed the new US president, Barack Obama, by announcing it would deploy a short-range ballistic missile, the SS-26 Iskander, in the Kalingrad region between Poland and Lithuania.

The missiles could be used "to neutralize, if necessary, the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe," said Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, according to RIA Novosti. He was referring to the US efforts to deploy a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Medvedev was speaking to Russia's Federal Assembly. He did not congratulate Obama in his speech, but the Kremlin said he sent a congratulatory telegram.

Here is video of the SS-26:

Georgia's opposition hope to catch West's attention

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:03:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia – The United States’ closest ally in the Caucasus will face its most severe test since losing a war with Russia when thousands of protesters gather today outside Georgia’s parliament to call for democratic and media reforms.

Georgia’s political opposition planned the protest for the first anniversary of the government’s violent suppression of rally with similar demands. Last year’s rally was estimated to have drawn over 100,000 people.

This year’s protest comes as the country is still reeling from its defeat by Russian and separatist forces from its two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia’s economy has been battered by war and the global financial crisis.

Battered by the war and global financial crisis, Georgia’s economy is dependent on $4.5 billion of aid money promised by international donors.

Georgia’s opposition hopes today’s protest catches the West’s attention.

Georgia needs “huge support from the West to push on Saakashvili to hold normal, fair elections,” said David Gamkrelidze, leader of the New Rights Party, which is participating in the protest.

“It’s impossible to reach lasting stability here without real democracy,” he said.

Georgia’s stability is critical to US interests in the region, said Zeyno Baran, a regional analyst with the Hudson Institute.

The US is competing with Russia for access to Caspian Sea and Central Asia’s energy resources, Baran said. The only way for the US to reach those resources is through Georgia.

Outside Parliament, members of the United Opposition tested a sound system and stage for Friday's protest. Louie Armstrong played over the speakers.

"Good or bad, the people will come here tomorrow," said a police officer watching the small crowd from behind a barricade on Parliament's steps. He would not give his name.

"Tomorrow is just the start of the protests, and we're hoping to achieve new presidential elections in the spring," said Kakha Kukava, leader of the Conservative Party.

Like other opposition leaders, Kukava hopes the new US administration will push the Georgian government to institute more democratic reforms.

"The [US] Republican administration failed to promote real democracy in the post-Soviet regions," he said.

Kukava estimated at least 30,000 people would attend the rally.

Makacaria Lia plans to attend. The 45-year-old Abkhaz woman went last year, but doesn't expect the government to crackdown this year.

"I think [the protest] will change things economically. We need property rights," Lia said.

More than democratic reforms, she wants the West to pressure Russia into respecting Georgia's territorial integrity.

Territorial integrity has consistently far outranked democratic reforms in Gallup's twice annual polls.

Nonetheless, democratic reforms is one of the main issues of the opposition. But many say Georgia's territorial integrity can never be guaranteed by current Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili. Some opposition leaders, including Gamkrelidze and Kukava, have called for his resignation.

The West will not support calls for Saakashvili’s removal, said Dato Usupashvili, leader of Georgia's Republican Party, which is not participating in Friday's protest.

Since Georgia cannot reform without Western support, the Republican Party is pushing for parliamentary rather than presidential elections, he said.

The West turned a blind eye to problems with Georgia’s last parliamentary and presidential elections, but now “they see the danger that an unpredictable Georgia can pose,” Usupashvili said.

If the West makes the $4.5 billion pledged in international aid conditional on democratic reform, and the opposition reaches a consensus on a reform strategy, Georgia’s chances for becoming a democracy are high, he said.

Usupashvili and other opposition leaders have already met separately with representatives from donor countries to discuss making aid money conditional on democratic reforms.

Georgian, Russian church leaders hold joint mass in Moscow

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:08:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- Leaders from the Georgian and Russian Orthodox Churches performed a joint mass in Moscow today to honor the arrival of relics.

After the war between Russia and Georgia, orthodox churches in South Ossetia asked to become part of the Russian church. However, the Russian patriarch denied the request, saying that the church didn't want to get involved in a political struggle, and was respecting the territory of the Georgian church.

Headlines on US election from Russia and Georgia

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:39:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- Here is a snapshot of some headlines about the US presidential election from some Russia and Georgia.

Komsomolskaya Pravda writes: Now is not the time for Obama to rest on laurels. Russia's largest newspaper notes that Obama faces more challenges than perhaps any president since either FDR or Lincoln.

RIA Novosti reports that Russian MPs more balanced US administration under Obama. The Russian news agency reports that several leading MPs expect more conciliation from the US because Obama will be focused on domestic issues. However, with the price of oil being cut in half from its former high over $140 a barrel to under $60, Russia might likely have to become more conciliatory as well.

InterPress News Agency writes: Medvedev Hopes Obama Presidency will Strengthen Ties with Russia.

Georgia's television network Rustavi2 reports on Georgian ministers comments on Obama victory. Georgian ministers are sure that the foreign policy of the United States and relations with Georgia will not change after the election of democratic candidate Obama in the U.S. presidential race.

The English-language Georgian Times writes that Prime Minister of Georgia Congratulated Americans with New President. Georgia's new Prime Minister Grigol Mgaloblishvili said he expects US-Georgian relations will be strengthened under an Obama presidency.

The American Experiment

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 09:26:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- I have never been more proud to be an American citizen than I was this morning when I watched the election returns come in. All Americans should be proud of their country today, not because of any political agenda, but because of what this election represents. This presidential election breathed new life into the ideal on which the United States founded themselves, representative democracy.

"America has showed the world what real democracy is," said my friend, Eduard Atoev.

This election is not only about President-elect Barack Obama. It is also about Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. Hilary Clinton and even Rep. Ron Paul. The first three are obvious: the first black US president, or if he had lost, the first female US vice-president, and the first woman to be a serious candidate for her party's presidential nomination.

Paul's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination was driven by his supporters, who crafted his message nearly as much as he did. It was a decentralized campaign stripped of the traditional hierarchical power structure. It happened to some degree with every major campaign through things such as viral videos, blogs and Facebook. But Paul's campaign was the only one driven by this dynamic.

This phenomenon is here to stay and represents an opening up of the political system unparalleled in American history. In the past, campaigns set an election's agenda by picking up issues they hoped would resonate with voters. Today, US citizens have the capacity to set the agenda as well. In some ways, Paul's campaign demonstrated a greater fundamental development in American democracy than Obama, Palin and Clinton.

My first reaction to Obama's election was that it signalled the fulfillment of representative democracy in the US. But that is simply not true. It demonstrated that 232 years after it was established, America is still striving to reach the ideals it set for itself. The US has always been an imperfect democratic republic. It exists in an imperfect world in which ideals are inherently unattainable. But the great promise of the American experiment has been that we set high ideals as our goal, and have strove to reach them ever since.

American democracy is flawed, but Obama, Palin, Clinton and even Paul demonstrate that we are still trying to do better.

Music stops halfway around the world

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:28:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- I received some sad news from Seattle via IM this evening. One of Seattle's most beloved and most unique institutions, Tuba Man, had died after being beaten by five muggers several days earlier.

For the better part of two decades, Tuba Man -- Edward McMichael -- has been a regular fixture outside major sporting events and the opera in Seattle, making music for the fans on his contrabass tuba.

I was shocked by how affected I was. It would be impossible not to be affected by such a senseless murder of someone who was so beloved by the community, but I'm usually a fairly reserved person. But not this time.

What made the news so much worse was hearing it halfway around the world. A part of the Seattle I left had died while I was away, and the Seattle I return to will be a little different.

One of the benefits of being a foreign correspondent is distancing yourself from the day-to-day world around you. The minor irritations that might bother me in Seattle, don't affect me in the least in Tbilisi. I can't stand the way many Seattleites drive. They are passive-aggressive idiots. Most Georgian drivers are simply aggressive idiots, but I don't care. Tbilisi isn't where I'm from. I'm just an observer here. Let the people do what they want, and I'll write it down. But many Georgians I know get very frustrated when they see other Georgians driving like idiots.

I suppose the flipside is the distance you feel when you get news like I did tonight. Of course, this probably doesn't apply to the foreign correspondents I've met who wrap themselves in the hard-living stereotype.

Living in no man's land

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:17:00 +0000

NIKOSI, Georgia -- The village of Nikosi is less than a kilometer from Tskhinvali, the capital of Georgia's breakaway province, South Ossetia. The area saw intense fighting during the war, and tensions remain high along the de facto border.

Many of the villages inhabitants live beyond the last Georgian checkpoint, in no man's land between South Ossetia and Georgia. I recently went there and talked with several villagers.

Democracy - foiled by snail mail, saved by e-mail

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:59:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- Six or seven weeks after being mailed, my absentee ballot arrived in Tbilisi today, on election day. That definitely qualifies as a day late, dollar short. Fortunately I had been able to get a ballot sent via e-mail, which I mailed through the US Embassy. (Interesting side note, domestic US postage rates apply to mail from the US Embassy to the US.)

So, I got to vote, and play my part. I felt very patriotic dropping my ballot off.

Last night a friend and I went to a hole-in-the-ground (literally) place that serves khinkali, Georgian dumplings. Two drunk brothers decided to sit down and start talking with us. (It's a very informal hole-in-the-ground place.) Turns out both were for Obama.

As the one with the wine bottle noted in broken English and Russian, Pres. George W. Bush loved Georgia, but the US and the world didn't love Bush. McCain loves Georgia, but is too closely associated with Bush to be that popular abroad. Obama will be a much more popular president, assuming he wins, and even if he doesn't love Georgia as much as McCain, his support will be much more effective.

Pretty astute observation from a sloppy drunk, I thought.

Then they showed us pictures of them "bear hunting," which mostly involved the two posing for pictures holding shotguns in front of waterfalls and other wonders of nature. No pictures of bears, though.

Another reason I love Tbilisi

noreply@blogger.com (Dan Catchpole) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:37:00 +0000

TBILISI, Georgia -- I forgot to mention that I wrote my post from a week ago sitting in a friend's office that also happens to be Lavrenty Beria's old apartment. Pudgy and with a dim-looking face, Beria helped Stalin orchestrate the Great Terror in the 1930s. As head of the NKVD -- the KGB's predecessor -- Beria was one of the most feared and powerful men in the Soviet Union; of course everyone lagged far behind Uncle Joe in those two areas.

Both Beria and Stalin were Georgian, but while Stalin is still widely revered in his hometown, Gori, Beria has been disowned by the entire nation.

Beria's former home in Tbilisi.

A brief biographical note on Beria: He didn't join the Bolsheviks until 1917, but quickly rose to prominence by showing his skill at running the original secret police -- the CHECKA. During his early years as a revolutionary in Tbilisi, Beria might have also been working for the British. This claim has never been proven, but it's more than just idle rumor. In the 1930s, he helped Stalin kill millions of peole, and people like Steinbeck showed up and declared it the 'Workers' Paradise.' (Hey, I love the man's writing too, but wow! Talk about being way off.) Beria outlasted Stalin, and was a part of the triumvirate that took over after Stalin died. Within a few years, though, one of the three leaders, Nikita Khrushchev, had pushed aside the other two.

But how many cities are there where you can update your blog from the old apartment of a mastermind of state terror?