Dave's Geopolitical Market Update

Specific Stocks

2012-01-25T11:31:00.000-08:00

Charts: Correlation between individual stocks has plunged in the past couple months from 80% to 15%. For the first time in years it is a stock pickers market. Support for the S&P 500 is at 1308 and resistance is at 1320. We want the index to bounce between these levels and consolidate. If that happens, then it will remain a stock pickers market.Wabtec (WAB): This company makes locomotives, brakes

Several Mice Are Roaring

2012-01-23T13:17:00.000-08:00

Charts: As growth investors, what we want to see is apathy, where volatility is so low nobody cares about the stock market. When this happens correlation between stocks disappear and at long last we have a stock pickers market. The first hints of apathy are emerging.Fundamentals: The European Central Bank is funneling billions into European banks, who in turn are buying Italian and Spanish debt.

Going Rogue Is So Good

2012-01-20T14:53:00.000-08:00

Charts: The euro reached an all-time low against the New Zealand dollar. The euro is not down nearly as much against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar is a carry trade destination and the US dollar is not. So there must be at least a bit of a euro carry trade going on. Maybe a full blown euro carry trade will evolve. This would be very good news (when and if it happens) and means we should

Long War Gets Religion. Al-Qaeda Makes A Mistake

2012-01-18T18:42:00.000-08:00

Long War: I was pretty shaken up at the realization that Israel is now openly fighting alongside America in the Long War. What a sea change. Since the early days after 9/11, the US has had a policy of keeping religion out of the global conflict. US Generals were fired for saying things like,"My God is bigger than Allah." Not only had Israel been kept out of the conflict but African Christian

Bad Analysis Becomes Good Analysis

2012-01-16T12:05:00.000-08:00

Long War: I've given you all a raft of bad analysis concerning the brewing Iran crisis. Sorry. But now we have the good stuff on tap... For the last two years there has been a two pronged covert campaign against Iran's nuclear weapons development program: 1) Assassination of top scientists. 2) Sabotage of Iranian centrifuges and other nuke devices by computer virus and perhaps other means. We

CIA or Mossad?

2012-01-13T11:58:00.000-08:00

Charts: The S&P 500 has been meeting fierce resistance at 1292, its October peak. Support is at 1285. At midday this Friday it has moved in and out of this support level about ten times. It needs to hold above support or we could see further technical damage.Fundamentals: The S&P rating agency is set to announce downgrades on France, Austria, and maybe a few other EU countries after the bell

I Am Sure It Is The CIA

2012-01-12T12:01:00.000-08:00

Fundamentals: The European Central Bank says it is not using QE (printing money) to solve the Euro-crisis and it is only purchasing small amounts of Spanish and Italian debt. If it used QE to buy huge amounts of bad Euro debt, then the weak sisters in Europe would stop all free market restructuring and austerity programs and go back to sponging off Germany. But the ECB is engaged in currency

All CIA Channel

2012-01-11T14:04:00.001-08:00

All CIA Channel: CIA drones attacked and killed three low ranking militants in the Pak tribal region. With all the intel the CIA has gathered recently it could surely have attacked a higher ranking target. The drone moratorium has been getting a lot of press recently and this is the CIA's way of saying there is actually no moratorium. There is a moratorium but this little flea bite of a drone

Taliban Peace Talks

2012-01-09T13:18:00.000-08:00

Long War: Everyone concerned is furiously preparing for the coming peace talks with the Taliban. The host country, Qatar, has made the sale of pork and alcohol illegal in much of the country. This is an important gesture to the bad guys, making them feel important and welcome. Qatar has also made office space and other accommodations available to the evil ones. Supposedly the Taliban is happy

Are We Winning The Long War?

2012-01-06T14:52:00.000-08:00

Long War: Pres. Obama and Def. Sec. Panetta gave speeches yesterday explaining what they will do with the Pentagon's budget and overall LW strategy in the years ahead. Since Obama will almost certainly win the next election this is a pretty big deal and it begs the question: Are we winning the LW?Obama says he will slash troop levels and expand the Reserve. The Navy and Air Force will be held

Straits of Hormuz

2012-01-05T14:55:00.000-08:00

Charts: Because of bad news from the Euro-crisis, in early going, the S&P 500 crashed down through the 1270 breakout level we talked about yesterday. The index crossed above and below 1270 six times in a hard fought battle for support throughout the morning. At midday support finally held and this technically driven market crawled fitfully up for a modest gain. So the nascent bull market is still

CIA Titan

2012-01-04T15:11:00.000-08:00

Charts: On the last day of 2011 the S&P 500 was a whisker below its 200-day moving average, indicating that it was still in a bear market. In the last few months of 2011 it was displaying a coiling pattern, where volatility comes down and the spread between highs and lows tighten. The Nasdaq and the all-world index over that time period were both forming a clear wedge pattern. Both wedge and

Bloodhound Tries To Sniffs CIA Trail

2011-12-21T13:23:00.000-08:00

The CIA: Each paragraph represents a geopolitical event that bears CIA fingerprints.As America has pulled troops out of Iraq, Iraqi oil production has soared. Oil contracts are very clean and well enforced. Clean contracts in the second most corrupt country in the world. Two weeks ago Al-Qaeda hit two pipelines in the south. The pipelines were fixed in record time. Oil exports were not affected.

Let's Talk Turkey

2011-12-15T19:07:00.001-08:00

Long War: Assad's Syrian Army (bad guys) lost about 40 soldiers this week to the rebel FSA (good guys), this was highest number of losses yet in the Syrian Civil War for the bad guys. The rebels initiated four separate battles over the week, knocking Assad's army back hard each time with coordinated rocket propelled grenade attacks. There are now Syrian towns where Assad's soldiers cannot go. It

Turkey Steps Up

2011-12-14T10:00:00.000-08:00

Charts: The S&P 500's 200-day moving average is between 1264-1267. The 50-day is 1224. The index is currently below both moving averages and since the 50-day is below the 200-day the index is still experiencing a death cross. An honest look at the charts indicates that we are in a bear market. So we have a new set of Fibonacci retracement levels. 1210-1212 is the new 50% retracement. So far today

We Give You All CIA All the Time

2011-12-06T13:10:00.000-08:00

Charts: Today the S&P 500 advanced, hit its 200-day moving average, found resistance, and retreated in higher volume. In the last few weeks it has touched the 200-day line dozens of times and found resistance. The 200-day line is a technical battlefield. A victory or defeat after a hard fought battle like this magnifies the importance of either the victory or the defeat.Last week's gigantic rally

Welcome To The All CIA Channel

2011-12-05T10:00:00.000-08:00

Charts: The S&P 500's 200-day moving average is 1264. The broad index is struggling with the 200-day line today. If it trades above 1264 for several days in a row, then chartists will say the summer's bear market is over. If not, we are still in a bear market.The CIA and The Long War: Libyan oil production is ramping up ten times faster than experts predicted. The conventional war is over and

CIA Short of $

2011-11-23T12:30:00.000-08:00

Charts: Over the summer the All-World index dropped 26%. A bear market begins with a 20% drop. So the bull market that started in March of 2009 is over and a new bear has begun. One sign that this new bear has ended would be the S&P 500 trading above its 200 day moving average for several days in a row with other technical indicators turning bullish. The recent rally met savage resistance at the

Libya War Rages On

2011-08-26T12:02:00.000-07:00

Fundamentals: The stock market wants the Federal Reserve to implement QE3, printing money out of thin air to buy government bonds. Bernake knows QE3 is a horrible idea but he doesn't want to spook the markets with honesty, so he essentially said,"Probably no QE3, but maybe, we'll see in September." In a childish mood, the market took maybe as yes and rallied. Also on Friday, Euro-zone ministers

ASS Wins War

2011-08-23T12:07:00.000-07:00

Long War: Media reports gave the impression that the Libya War had ended yesterday, with the rebels victorious. The war still rages as of today, but the rebels are winning. As I write, the rebels are attacking Gaddafi's main command and control complex in Tripoli, Bab al-Azizya. Reports indicate they are successfully tearing apart this complex. Right before the big rebel push into Tripoli, the

The CIA

2011-08-22T10:07:00.000-07:00

Libya: The Free Libya Army has assaulted and taken Tripoli. This should spell the end of the conventional phase of the Libya War. Over the weekend a sophisticated pincer movement engulfed Tripoli as a massive number of sleeper cells were activated within the capital city by imams giving a coded message through the traditional call to prayer. The sleeper cells were installed months ago. The entire

All Eyes On Libya

2011-08-19T13:26:00.000-07:00

Charts: The S&P 500 has executed a death cross. Please go to the blog below this one to reference the significance of this chart formation. Fundamentals: Advanced economies equal 60-70% of world GDP. As a group they are currently growing at about 0.7%. Economists call this "stall speed," which means that a global recession is likely. The only hope is for emerging market economies to start

Don't Count Chickens Before They Hatch

2011-08-16T07:41:00.000-07:00

Charts: The stock market is in a rally attempt. This attempt needs to succeed or we could be in big trouble. Earlier in the year the S&P 500 battled with its 200-day moving average. The loss of this battle knocked stocks down a good 10%. The line in the sand right now is with the formation of a death cross, where the 50-day moving average plunges through the 200-day moving average; when this

Cut Butter, Not Guns

2011-08-12T11:06:00.000-07:00

Charts: Earlier this week the all world index at one point registered a 20% decline from its April highs, nipping into bear market territory. Despite that, the market is not technically driven, rather fundamentals and geopolitics are the driving forces. Fundamentals: China is trying to ride to the rescue again as the world economy teeters on the brink of a horrific double-dip recession. The

Through The Lens of The Long War II

2011-08-08T08:10:00.000-07:00

Long War: Through QE2, the Empire (America) tried to tax its provinces by debasing its currency; exactly as its predecessor (ancient Rome) did so many times. The only way a tax like this can stick is if the Empire keeps winning its wars. Is the tax hike sticking? Is America forcing its debt down the world's throat? The S&P downgrade of America's debt was followed by the biggest one day combat