Recent data put through the ringer by my collaborator Will Page are suggesting the hopes and dreams of the Long Tail may be farther from reality than many have hoped.

Essentially, by way of transaction data from a large digital music retailer that shall go nameless, the tail wagged as follows:

Roughly 80% of the available inventory of music tracks sold nothing over the course of a year. Unfortunately, that outcome alone is enough to really question how life is for those artists operating in the tail.

Of the 20% of tracks that did sell something, the great majority of sales (more than 80%) came from a tiny sliver of tracks.

You end up with less than 5% of the available inventory accounting for more than 80% of the sales, during a year.

And unfortunately, that outcome is a far cry from “the future of business is selling less of more.”

Given the ongoing and at time spicy debate that surrounds the Long Tail, as presented by WIRED’s Chris Anderson, I believe its time we ask a very simple question:  Is “The Long Tail” a Theory or an Ideology?  If this question has already been asked, then consider this simply the time for me to ask this very simple question.

By Theory, I simply mean a statement of some causal relationship(s), and/or conditional process(es) that can be proven to be false.  Notice, I did not say that a theory is something that can be proven to be true.  This distinction – falsification – is fundamental to what it seems we call our scientific method.  Furthermore, as highlighted by the Oxford dictionary, a theory involves “general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”  The outcome and conditions are not the theory – the theory is in the spaces in between the cause and the consequent.

By Ideology, I simply mean “a system of ideas and ideals” that can be shown to be true.  Importantly, these principles may not be independent of the thing to be explained.  Instead, ideologies are alternatively explanations or interpretations.  The cause and the consequent are fused together, no longer independent.

For example, the various disciplines of the social sciences – economics, sociology, political science – are supported by various ideologies.  These disciplines are cornerstoned, and at times distinguished, by certain ideas and assumptions about the world such that explanations make sense. These ideologies then give birth to all sorts of theories about human behavior, at the level of individuals or the aggregation of individuals we call markets or societies.

The Long Tail may in fact be an Ideology – a system of ideas and ideals that once in place can be shown to be true.  I am coming to this conclusion given most challenges to the claims of the Long Tail are met with re-stated conditions and exceptions.  The objective of the Long Tail thesis appears to be to describe a set of conditions under which both the cause and the consequent would be shown to be true.

As such, the premise(s) of the Long Tail may not form a Theory to be tested, but an Ideology to be adopted and adapted.

So.  The Google comic made for the release of their browser is pretty nifty.  Clicking through each and every page in a browser however, is no real fun.  Therefore, I have pooled all of the images into a single PDF file.  I included the credits for this comic on the final page.  All rights involved ultimately belong to Google.  This is just a PDF of the images, easier to read.

Here is the link to the Google Chrome Browser Comic Book in PDF form.

Just a quick test of the iPhone app for WordPress.

Seems the blogoland is officially in a tizzy over the next iPhone.  Per protocol, the Apple Store is closed for “restocking,” and a flurry of fuzzy and poached screen shots have appeared in the last week.

Quite honestly, as an iPhone owner, I can say that this thing makes other phones just look like toys.  Not that toys are a bad thing.  But as more phones live and work like iPhones, social life will have to be impacted in unexpected ways.

A brief paper written by WIll Page (of MCPS-PRS Alliance, in the UK) and myself has been made publicly available.  The piece was meant to stir a larger discussion around alternative licensing structures rights societies might put to use, particularly in the context of new, music-related startups.  These startups usually (1) cannot afford the rates societies have set based upon the financials of more mature businesses, and (2) are trying to use music in novel ways, for which a collective license may not already exist.

The paper can be downloaded from the MCPS-PRS Alliance site for independent research. 

That’s the question that directs my research.  We have made a great many of assumptions, and produced a number of theories over the years regarding the relationship between technology, work and organizations.  Most of these assumptions and theories have run into a few bumps when information technologies are concerned.

So where are we headed, as our capacity to automate work increases?  Are we running out of things to do?  Or do increasingly capable, and (gasp) intelligent  technologies simply take our work and organizations in direction we never anticipated?

As someone who has been exposed to a fair amount of research in the management realm, I am often shocked/awed/dismayed by the use of psychological testing in the hiring process. These tests play a statistical game that really should only be played by those understanding the rules.

When I see these new products in the world of genetic data, like 23andME, I get a little concerned. We might as well accept at this point in time that someday, you will exchange these kind of data either before or after an employment agreement. Many people would consider the privacy factor too overwhelming to expect genetic information to be part of the employment process, but the facts of the reality suggest that private employers are not bound by the same rules for private data as many assume. We are often and quite legally monitored at work, depending upon the state in which we are employed, we can be fired for our political beliefs (even if those beliefs are expressed outside of the workplace).

Anyhoo. Arrington, over at TechCrunch, released some screen shots and thoughts on his test data courtesy 23andME. As the tests that underlie these kind of services grow in size and focus, the data will only get more “reliable.” Firms can and will hire on the basis of the odds expressed in these results.

A good test of a new pharmaceutical would rest upon whether or not the team who developed the drug would use it on themselves, or their children. Unfortunately, what’s good for the gander is not good for the goose, when it comes to being free.Long Tail Anderson (the editor in chief of WIRED) has been able to make use of Wired magazine to promote his upcoming book. Note: the particular WIRED magazine (in paper form) is only available for free to the first 10,000 people to sign away their right to a spam-free mailing address here (”You may at times receive e-mail offers or information from Wired or carefully selected third parties.”).Unfortunately, judging from the article in WIRED, and the article in The Economist, Mr. Anderson strings together a great many buzzwords, sufficient to distract anyone from paying attention to the strings being pulled behind the curtain.Right from the start, the whole things sounds a little wonky:(excerpt) “The new model is based not on cross-subsidies — the shifting of costs from one product to another — but on the fact that the cost of products themselves is falling fast. It’s as if the price of steel had dropped so close to zero that King Gillette could give away both razor and blade, and make his money on something else entirely.”(excerpt)Never mind that cross subsidies are later listed as one of the business models for free, described as “any product that entices you to pay for something else.” SO  the new business model is based upon cross-subsidies for those who keep their attention.Regardless. The real bummer here is the ease with which this whole article repackages the past as the future of business.  Nothing in particular is the future of business.  However, this future will always involve someone opening their wallet and paying for something.

One of the most frustrating challenges when working, researching or teaching around the subject of entrepreneurship is the “what” of entrepreneurship.  What the hell is it?  More important, how do those assumptions people hold about this thing that is entrepreneurship stack up to reality?

Scott Shane, at Case Western Reserve’s Weatherhead School of Management, has written a book, The Illusions of Entrepreneurship, that is (imho) an absolute must read.