Conor Jackson – .571/.625/.929, 8 for 14, 2 2B, 1 HR, and 4 RBI. Jackson is showing no effects from the Valley Fever that ruined his 2009 season. He will be the starting LF, and should be back to his typical .290 AVG, .370 OBP, .450 SLG season.

Tony Abreu – .471/.471/.824, 8 for 17, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR,  4 RBI, 5 R. Defensively, Abreu has been playing SS for the first week, and has looked solid.  Offensively, he’s been spraying the ball around the yard, although he still doesn’t walk much.  With Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, and Mark Reynolds expected to be starting at 2B, SS, and 3B, respectively, there is no place for Abreu to play.  Gerardo Parra, Chris Snyder and Ryan Roberts are expected to grab three bench spots, but there may be room for both Abreu and Ojeda on the 25 man roster. Or, if Abreu continues to impress defensively, he could push Augie Ojeda out of the utility IF role.

Brandon Allen – .333/.500/.778, 3 for 9, 4 BBs, 2 2B, 1 3B.  Allen has looked much better in the first week of spring training than he did in the Arizona Fall League. Still, with the signing of Adam LaRoche, Allen is destined for AAA this year.

Dan Haren – 0.00 ERA, 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. Haren looks in good form already, and will be the Opening Day starter for the Diamondbacks.

Edwin Jackson – 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 1 K, 0 BB. Jackson will be the #3 Starter for the D’backs (or #2 if Brandon Webb isn’t ready for Opening Day).

Ian Kennedy – 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 0 K, 1 BB. Kennedy will be the #4 Starter for the D’backs (or #3).

Billy Buckner – 7.20 ERA, 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 7 K. Buckner has had trouble with the Home Run ball, giving up two already. But he has struck out 7 while walking only 1. He should be the #5 starter (or #4).

Kevin Mulvey – 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K.  Mulvey has only pitched 2 IP in a split squad game so far, but he’s the front runner for the #6/#5 slot in the rotation, mainly because his competition (Rodrigo Lopez, Bryan Augenstein) has struggled so far.

Chad Qualls – 0.00 ERA, 2 IP. Qualls has pitched 2 perfect innings for far, with 1 strikeout. Qualls will be the closer for the Diamondbacks again this year.

Juan Gutierrez – 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 1 BB, 3 K. Gutierrez has emerged as the likely setup man for Chad Qualls, as both Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman are off to slow starts.

Roque Mercedes – 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 0 BB, 4 K. Mercedes will probably start the season in AAA, but he’s got the stuff to be an impact reliever down the road.

Hanley Ramirez is one player who helps in every fantasy baseball category, and does it while playing the position of shortstop. Ramirez has hit over .300 for three consecutive seasons, including a league leading .342 in 2009. He has scored over 100 runs for four straight years, leading the league in 2008. Over the last four years, he has averaged 26 HR and 41 SB, and even drove in 106 runs last year. Ramirez should be the top fantasy SS in the National League once again. Jimmy Rollins slumped to a .250 average in 2009, after batting at least .277 every year from 2004-2008. But even in a down year, Rollins still contributed 100 runs, 21 HR, 77 RBI, and 31 SB.  I think the batting average will edge back up, while the other stats should stay around the same level.  Troy Tulowitzki rebounded from a 8 HR season in 2008 to slug 32 HR in 2009, along with a career high 20 SB.  Tulowitzki’s fly ball rate was virtually the same over the last three seasons (38.3%, 37.3%, 39.8%) but last year 18.5% of his fly balls turned into home runs, while only 6.7% did in 2008. I expect his home run rate to return closer to his career rate of 13%, which will bring his HR total back in the low-to-mid 20s. Jose Reyes is definitely a wild card in 2010. Reyes only played 39 games in 2009 because of a hamstring injury. This year, the hamstring appears OK, but Reyes has been sidelined with a thyroid condition. Fortunately, doctors say that the condition is easily treatable, so Reyes should be back on the field soon. If he’s back, Reyes should lead all SS in stolen bases.  The Mets were also talking batting Reyes in the #3 slot while Carlos Beltran is out, so he may see a bump in his RBI numbers as well.

Yunel Escobar leads the next group of NL shortstops. Escobar showed nice improvement across the board in 2009, and should make another small step forward in 2010. Escobar doesn’t have the speed or power to reach the Top 4 group, but should be a solid #5. Ryan Theriot has scored at least 80 runs with 20+ SB for three straight years, and should continue that in 2010. Stephen Drew has seen his batting average fluctuate greatly from year to year – .316, .238, .291, .261.  His slugging percentage has fluctuated in a similar way, and his on-base percentage has been disappointing low.  What to expect in 2010? Drew should be batting leadoff this year, and I think we’ll see a little more patience this year. He’ll be 27 in 2010, and I think he’ll start putting it all together this year. As a Rule 5 pick for the Padres, Everth Cabrera had a surprising season in 2009, showing outstanding speed and a decent walk rate.  I think he played a little over his head last year, and might struggle with the bat in 2010. But he will still steal a lot of bases. Alcides Escobar is another SS who can steal some bases, but like ECabrera, he needs to improve his on-base skills.  His solid defense should keep him in the lineup as the Brewers work to improve his plate discipline.  Orlando Cabrera should continue what he has done for the last several years – decent batting average, good number of runs, and double figures in stolen bases. At the age of 32, Rafael Furcal is no longer a 30+ SB threat, but he should be an everyday player for the Dodgers near the top of the lineup.

The last group of shortstops includes many players who will need to battle for playing time. One whose job is probably safe is Edgar Renteria, although his offense really fell off in the 2nd Half (.233/.290/.331) and he has struggled to hit in San Francisco (.238/.307/.308 at Home). But the Giants don’t have any other options at SS with Emmanuel Burris injured, so Renteria should play. As discussed in the 2B section, Brendan Ryan should be the regular SS for the Cards, but they do have Felipe Lopez and Julio Lugo battling for playing time. In Washington, Cristian Guzman is expected to get the starting job over Ian Desmond, but Desmond should provide more pop and speed, and may take over by the end of the season. Ronny Cedeno should be the starting SS in Pittsburgh, and has certainly shown flashes on both offense and defense. But he needs to keep the batting average and OBP respectable to hold off Bobby Crosby. In Houston, Tommy Manzella is the current starter, and should be solid defensively, but might not hit well enough to keep the job. His only competition right now is Jeff Keppinger and Geoff Blum. Juan Uribe and Jerry Hairston should all be utility players this year with a small chance of becoming starters, while Emilio Bonifacio, Alex Cora,and Craig Counsell should be nothing more than backups this year.

Byrnes emphasized that the goal for Webb is to be healthy for the season, not just Opening Day. Webb has had eight bullpen sessions over the last 6 weeks, but is not scheduled to face live batters until Sunday or Monday, and will not appear in Cactus League games until mid-March. That may be enough time for Webb to be ready by Opening Day, but if it isn’t, Byrnes doesn’t want to rush things. “If you have to concede a little bit of time on the front end of the schedule to keep him healthy for the long haul, then that’s what we’ll do,” Byrnes said. “But we haven’t had to make that decision yet. We’re taking the longer view of six months and how to get the most out of him over the length of the season.”

Webb himself is a little anxious, and said he feels “stagnant.” “I just need a little more intensity,” he said. “I need to jack myself up, I need something. I don’t want to overdo it either, I don’t want to set myself back. That’s like the thing that’s in the back of my mind always. I’m set up right now to be where I need to be and one little setback would probably push me back to where I don’t want to be. Still a little cautious.” We’ll see how Webb feels after throwing to batters in the next few days.

Some other things to note from the first days of Spring Training:
Tony Abreu – Abreu has played SS in both games so far, going 2 for 5 with 1 Run Scored and 1 RBI, and no errors. If Abreu shows that he can an adequate SS, it greatly increases the chances of him making the Opening Day 25-Man roster. If Abreu can’t handle SS, then Augie Ojeda will certainly make the team as the backup SS to Stephen Drew.

Bullpen – In the first two games, veteran pitchers Bob Howry (1 IP, 4 H, 2ER) and Aaron Heilman (1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) struggled in their first outings. Youngsters Clay Zavada (0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER) and Esmerling Vasquez (0.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER) also had rough first appearances.

On the bright side, Justin Upton hit a grand slam against the Cubs, Dan Haren threw two scoreless innings, and Ryan Roberts also hit a HR. Battling for an opening day roster spot, Cole Gillespie has gone 2-3 with a HR.

This looks like a great deal for the Diamondbacks, averaging out to around $8.5M per season. Although Upton is inexpensive right now, his salary would have been expected to rise significantly in 2011-2013 during his arbitration years. And as a free agent in 2014-2015, he may well have become one of the league’s highest paid players. For Upton, he now has great financial security, and he can also look forward to a nice free agent contract for the 2016 season when he will only be 28 years old.

A good comparison contract is that of Nick Markakis, who signed a 6 yr, $66M deal with the Orioles in 2009. Markakis had already completed three seasons when he signed, unlike Upton’s two, so his contract was for 3 arb-eligible years plus three free agent years. If we replace Markakis’ third FA-eligible year at $15M with that of a 3rd year player, and take out his 7th year option year buyout of $2M, his contract would be around $50M for the same service period.

Two players are at the top of the position rankings at second base – Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips. Utley has had five consecutive seasons around .290-30 HR-100 RBI-100 Runs, and is a safe bet to do it again.  Utley even throws in double figures in Stolen Bases too. Phillips is just a notch below in 4 of the 5 categories, but has averaged 26 SB for the last 4 years. That’s good enough to make Phillips a strong number two at the position.

The next group of players all make contributions in a few categories, but just not in all five. Dan Uggla and Ian Stewart should provide good power numbers, but with a low batting avergage and little speed.  Placido Polanco and Martin Prado will hit for average and should score and drive in some runs, but won’t help much in HR or SB.  Two second basemen should exceed 20 SB, Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui. Kelly Johnson is one player that could provide decent numbers across the board. He has had seasons with 16 HR, 91 Runs Scored, 11 SB, and a .287 AVG, but just not all in the same season.  After last year’s disastrous .224-8 HR-29 RBI, Johnson is looking to bounce back with the Diamondbacks in 2010.  Felipe Lopez has had even more impressive totals in the past – 23 HR, 44 SB, 98 Runs, and a.310 AVG, but the big power and speed totals are four or five seasons in the past. Lopez is also moving into a crowded Cardinals infield with Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan, David Freese, and Julio Lugo.

This next group of players should at least get regular playing time. Akinori Iwamura and Luis Castillo should provide some runs, steals and batting average help, but with few HR and RBI. Over the last eight seasons, Castillo has hit between .291 and .314 seven times.  He only managed 22 HR in those seasons combined, but did steal 181 bases. He should still be able to get on base and score some runs. Casey McGehee is a bit of a wild card, coming off last year’s .301/.360/.499 season. But McGehee had never hit .300 in the minors, and had a career .410 SLG in AAA after 286 games for Iowa. Adam Kennedy is another player who surprised in 2009, stealing 20 bases while hitting 11 HR and batting .289. I expect both McGehee and Kennedy to regress back a little.  Ronnie Belliard was discarded by the Nationals in September, and ended up batting .351 with 5 HR in 24 games with the Dodgers. He should be the starter in 2010, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him revert back to his usual .270/.330/.420 performance. Clint Barmes did hit 23 HR with 76 RBI in 2009, but only had a .245 AVG and a .294 OBP. He was much worse in the second half of the season, batting only .205, and away from Coors Field, his average slipped down to .207 for the year, with 67 K and only 12 BBs. Freddy Sanchez should continue doing what he usually does – solid batting average, but not much else. In 2006 and 2007, Sanchez added 40+ doubles and 80+ RBI, but the last two seasons haven’t had enough of that.  Although eligible at 2B, Brendan Ryan will likely be the starting shortstop for the Cardinals, and should contribute in the stolen base category. Mike Fontenot slumped to a .236/.301/.377 season in 2009, and now has to hold off Jeff Baker for playing time.  Fontenot’s superior defense should give him the playing time edge, but he needs to get his bat closer to his 2008 (.305/.395/.514) stats.  David Eckstein is expected to start at 2B for the Padres, and will probably bat in the second slot.  He’ll score some runs, but don’t expect much more.

This group includes several players who will probably be utility players, but will be battling for additional playing time. Juan Uribe can provide good power, but doesn’t have a place to play with Sandoval, Renteria, Sanchez, and Huff in the Giants infield.  Omar Infante will fill a similar utility role in Atlanta, and the addition of Felipe Lopez may move Skip Schumaker out of the starting lineup in St. Louis.  Jerry Hairston will play all over the infield and outfield for San Diego, and Jeff Baker will try to win the 2nd base start over Mike Fontenot. Eugenio Velez and Eric Young Jr. should provide stolen bases, even if they aren’t starters. Both Jamey Carroll and Blake DeWitt are options in LA if Ronnie Belliard falters. In Arizona, both Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu could make offensive contributions if they get an opportunity. Craig Counsell will be an option in Milwaukee if Alcides Escobar struggles or Rickie Weeks gets injured again.

* Dunn also eligible at OF, Sandoval at 3B.

First Base is a premier offensive position in the National League, with at least 10 players likely to earn $20 or more.   Albert Pujols should be the top 1B in 2010 once again. Pujols has been a model of consistency – batting over .300, slugging at least 30 HR, and driving in over 100 runs for each of his nine major league seasons. Last year, he bumped the HR up to 47, and even stole 16 bases. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pujols lead all NL 1B in every key offensive category. Prince Fielder is coming off his best season, leading the NL in RBI with 141, and putting up a career high 1.014 OPS and 168 OPS+. He should be an outstanding contributor again in 2010, but probably just a notch below Pujols in every category. Joey Votto only played in 131 games last year, but showed that he must now be considered an elite 1B, finishing in the Top 5 in the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Votto hit well against both RHP (1.000 OPS) and LHP (.931 OPS), as well as at Home (.968 OPS) and on the Road (.990 OPS). His power may be a notch below Fielder, Howard, Gonzalez, and Dunn, but he should hit for a much higher batting average than all of them. Ryan Howard has hit over 45 HR and 135 RBI for four straight seasons, leading the league in RBI for three of the last four years. However, Howard continues to struggle against LHP, batting only .207 with 6 HR in 222 AB last season. Adrian Gonzalez mashed the ball outside of Petco (28 HR away, 12 at home), and drew a career high 119 BBs last year as teams continued to pitch around him.  Expect more of the same in 2010.  Derrek Lee had a monster 2nd half in 2009 (.336/.436/.656), and also saw a spike in HR to 35 from 20 and 22 the previous years. A big factor was Lee’s fly ball rate, which jumped to 45.7% in 2009 from only 33.7% in 2008.  Adam Dunn has been very consistent for 40 HR, 100 RBI, and over 100 BBs for six consecutive seasons. However, his batting average has fluctuated a lot, from as low as .234 to as high as last year’s .267.  Dunn has never put together two decent batting average seasons in a row – I think he’ll finally do it in 2010.  Dunn continues to be one of the most extreme fly-ball hitters in the Majors, finishing with a 48.5% Fly Ball rate in 2009. Lance Berkman has a career .299 Batting Average, which leaves him just out of the career .300/.400/.500 group that includes Pujols, Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Todd Helton. He missed some time in 2009 with injuries, but should be back to his typical 30 HR – 100 RBI levels in 2010. Adam LaRoche has been remarkably consistent in his career, hitting around 25 HR with a .270 AVG every year. Now he is moving to a great hitters park in Chase Field, and I think we’ll see a bump up to a .280-27 HR level. Completing the Top 10 is Pablo Sandoval, who is also eligible at 3B. Sandoval had an outstanding rookie campaign, but he does play in a tough park (didn’t bother him in 2009 – 1.012 Home OPS) with a poor lineup around him.  There have also been some concerns about his weight, and his plate discipline isn’t that great. I have Sandoval taking a small step backwards in 2010.

* Prado also eligible at 2B; Cantu at 3B; DMurphy and GJones at OF.

The next group of 1B-eligible players is led by James Loney. Loney doesn’t have the power of the Top 10 First Basemen, but he should reach double figures in HR with a decent batting average and RBI total.  Loney only has a career 35% Fly Ball rate, which is the lowest among the quality 1B, so his HR total should not increase significantly. Todd Helton has not had a 30 HR-100 RBI season since 2003, but seems to have settled into a .300-15-80 hitter.  Like Loney, his Fly Ball rate is low among 1B, and has been dropping steadily for several seasons. Martin Prado qualifies at 1B, but will most likely be drafted as a 2B, so will be discussed in greater detail in that article. Although Jorge Cantu has driven in 95 and 100 runs for the last two seasons, his low OBP and fading power make him a risky play.  With Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez ready to step in at 1B for the Marlins, Cantu can’t afford to drop any further if he wants to maintain his playing time. With Carlos Delgado out, Daniel Murphy will battle with Fernando Tatis for the first base job with the Mets. Although not a true power hitter, Murphy should get the bulk of playing time against RHP, and can probably contribute a league-average OPS.  Garrett Jones came out of nowhere to hit .293/.372/.567 (21 HR in 82 games) in 2009 as a 28 year old rookie. This came after playing almost 600 games at the AAA level with totals of .265/.321/.463, although he had shown improvement in each of the last three seasons.  What can we expect in 2010? I still put more stock in the 10 years of average minor league play than in the 3 great months with the Pirates, so I’m going with an average back in the 250s, although with decent power.  Jones may end up as a platoon player, as he really struggled against LHP (.208 AVG). Aubrey Huff followed 2008’s strong .304-32 HR-108 RBI season with a drop all the way to .241-15-85.  I think Huff’s 2010 will be similar as he moves to a tough hitting park in San Francisco.

* RHernandez also eligible at C and FTatis at OF.

The remaining players listed probably will not get significant playing time at 1B, although Ramon Hernandez will play considerably at Catcher.   Jeff Clement has an opportunity for playing time if Garrett Jones struggles.  Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez will see time if Cantu struggles or is traded, with Sanchez having more power while Morrison should be better at getting on base.  Fernando Tatis may become at least a platoon player for the Mets.  Ross Gload, Jason Giambi, and Chad Tracy will primarily serve as pinch hitters.

Brian McCann is the clear-cut leader among National League catchers heading into 2010. McCann has put together four consecutive seasons averaging 22 HR, 92 RBI, and a .295 batting average. He has even thrown in a handful of stolen bases the last two years.

After McCann, there is no clear-cut candidate for #2. There are at least five players who have shown flashes of brilliance, but haven’t shown the consistency yet. I have Ryan Doumit in the #2 slot. Despite an injury-plagued 2009 season, Doumit had a .274/.341/.472 season in 2007, and had improved to a .318/.357/.501 in 2008. I think Doumit will manage to stay healthy this time, and will end up as the 2nd most productive catcher. Russell Martin probably won’t return to his .293, 19 HR, 87 RBI campaign of 2007, but he should still rack up double figures in HR and SB, and will get enough playing time to accumulate good totals in Runs Scored and RBI. Chris Iannetta has hit 18 HR and 16 HR for the last two seasons, and should be able to repeat that level. Geovany Soto collapsed to a .218 batting average in 2009, after winning the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year with a .285, 23 HR, 85 RBI season. I think he’ll come closer to his 2008 totals, although there are many questions after Soto reported to camp 40 lbs lighter. Miguel Montero had a fine 2009 campaign, with a .294 AVG and 16 HR. I think that average will come down a little, but the power will stay. One concern with Montero is that his backup, Chris Snyder, will probably steal most of the ABs against LHP, and may play even more if he hits well.

This next group of catchers is a set of players that should have decent playing time, but aren’t terribly productive hitters. Yadier Molina has shown the ability to hit for a high average, and has even started drawing more walks, but won’t hit for much power. Ramon Hernandez has been fading for four straight years, but is still only 34, and should have one more double-digit HR season left. Bengie Molina still can’t draw 20 walks in a season, but he has been good for double-digit HR and has been batting in a good RBI slot. Molina also has to fend off rookie Buster Posey for playing time in 2010. Jesus Flores also should provide some power and few walks, and also has a battle for playing time, in this case with Ivan Rodriguez. If he’s healthy, he should get the bulk of the playing time. Carlos Ruiz showed some improvement at the plate in 2009, and should be the full time starter in 2010.

For this group of players, full-time playing status is more uncertain. In Florida, John Baker and Ronny Paulino will battle for playing time. J.R. Towles is hoping for another chance in Houston, and I think 2010 will be the year he finally starts to put it together. Nick Hundley has shown some power, but plays in a tough park and now has to battle Yorvit Torrealba. Can Gregg Zaun really be the starter for the Brewers? He hasn’t had over 400 ABs in a season since 2005, but his competition is only George Kotteras and Angel Salome. Miguel Olivo should benefit from playing in Coors Field, but may not get as much playing time as last year.

Buster Posey is the best catching prospect around, but may be back in AAA after the Giants re-signed Bengie Molina. Players like Brian Schneider, Chris Snyder, and David Ross have some proven ability, but are blocked from full-time status.  Yorvit Torrealba will also have to battle for playing time, and is moving to a tough hitting park. Josh Thole showed good on-base skills in AA last year, but may not be ready to jump to the Majors yet.

1) Starting Rotation – As expected, the front three of the starting rotation will be Webb, Haren, and EJackson. Byrnes mentioned five pitchers who will be competing for the final two slots – Ian Kennedy, Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Rodrigo Lopez, and Bryan Augenstein. It looks like Aaron Heilman will be used in the Bullpen and is not expected to compete for a starting spot.

2) NL West – Although the entire NL West is fairly balanced, Byrnes feels that the Rockies are the biggest threat, based on their youth and balance of offense, defense, and pitching. He mentions the Dodgers as the other main threat, but has them slightly below the Rockies due to some attrition in the offseason.

3) Opening Day Roster – Byrnes mentions that most of the 2010 opening day roster is set. He specifically mentioned four players where “we want to see what we’ve got” – Tony Abreu, Cole Gillespie, Rusty Ryal, and Brandon Allen. So it appears that these four need to have a strong spring training to make the team, while Ryan Roberts, Gerardo Parra, Augie Ojeda, and Chris Snyder seem to have four bench spots locked up.

4) Run Scoring - Byrnes feels that this year’s team “should score runs, as opposed to could score runs.” He speculates the offense should move up to 770-800 runs scored from last year’s 720.

5) Comeback Seasons – Byrnes feels that Chris Snyder and Conor Jackson should both be back at full strength, and that Chris Young’s strong 2009 finish was very encouraging for 2010. Byrnes compares Young to Mike Cameron and Franklin Gutierrez at the same ages.

6) The Trade – Byrnes states again that although Max Scherzer is a unique talent with great make-up, there are still questions about his pitching efficiency and durability. The Diamondbacks feel that Edwin Jackson has reached a level that Scherzer may or may not reach, and that Ian Kennedy will give the team six years of solid starting pitching.

Webb said that the session “went good,” according to MLB.com. “[The] ball came out well, but I was just thinking about arm slot on every throw. That’s to be expected, not having thrown on the mound in so long.”

Webb still expects to be ready for the start of the season. The Diamondbacks had picked up Webb’s 2010 option in November for $8.5M, and are expecting Webb to lead the Diamondbacks’ rotation along with Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson.