DC Home and Condo Prices

MRIS October 2009 Housing Report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:45:00 +0000

MRIS released its data for October signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District yesterday. As in the reports for the preceding few months, sales and dollar volume are up and prices are lower than the same period last year. More is selling, but for less. I must repeat: remember that we're now into the one year anniversary of the financial collapse kindly brought to us by the Bagatelle brunching idiots who work on Wall Street so YoY numbers right now (sales and dollar volume) reflect the effects of last year's near economic meltdown.

Key points in October's data:

YoY, aggregate dollar volume jumped 17.02%. Condo dollar volume leapt 30.52% and that of homes grew 10.49%.
Sales volume was strong, increasing 40.58% YoY. Condos and homes both shared in the positive growth, increasing 33.88% and 45.89%, respectively.
Prices continue their tailspin. Average prices fell 16.76%. Condo prices fell 2.51%, while home prices dropped 24.26%. As in September [and August], not a single home category experienced higher prices YoY.
At October's sales rate, there is a 6.11 month's supply of condo units on the market, 14.23% more than September. For homes, 5.27 months, 17.53% less.

By the way, if you ever want to hear what Bagatelle brunching idiots who work on Wall Street sound like, tune in to Sirius Radio on Saturdays from 3-6PM to listen to dance channel BPM's "Bagatelle Brunch" broadcast. If you listen real close between the sounds of David Guetta [turn off the sound before you click or you'll be rocking the house] and Paul van Dyk [someone is still using MySpace], you'll hear them laughing at us.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

MRIS October 2009 Sales Report: Preliminary data

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:39:00 +0000

MRIS released October's data for sales of existing homes in the District today. Prices continue to fall while more units are sold. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume up 17.02%
Average price is down 16.76%, median is down 3.66%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] is up 40.58%
Home unit sales up 45.88%
Condo unit sales up 33.87%

Sales prices were 93.36% of list. At October's sales pace, there is a 6.11 month supply of condos [an increase from September] and 5.27 month supply of homes listed for sale [less than September].

Analysis forthcoming.

District Sales: August 2009 uploaded

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:50:00 +0000

District sales data for August 2009 have been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com. Analysis forthcoming.

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:30:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for August 2009 was released yesterday. The report show "that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s [July] reading. This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009."

“Broadly speaking, the rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two Composites and 19 of the 20 metro areas showed an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, 17 of the MSAs and both Composites saw price increases in August over July. While many of the markets remain down versus this time last year, the relative rate of decline has shown some real improvement."

But there is a caveat.

"Once again, however, we do want to remind people of the upcoming expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November and anticipated higher unemployment rates through year-end. Both may have a dampening effect on home prices.”

YoY, DC area prices are 8.22% lower, with prices increasing 1.43% July to August.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

Repeat after me...

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 11:00:00 +0000

I've begun processing August's sales data. Based on what I've seen so far, I must ask the District government to repeat after me: it's TODD Place NE, not TOOD Place NE.

Thank you. You may now resume awarding contracts to our mayor's fraternity brothers.

MRIS September 2009 Housing Report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:26:00 +0000

MRIS released its data for September signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District a few days ago. As in its August [and July and June and May] report, sales and dollar volume are up and prices are lower than the same period last year. More is selling, but for less. Plus ça change... Before we get excited and go shopping, remember that we're now into the one year anniversary of the financial collapse kindly brought to us by the Bagatelle brunching idiots who work on Wall Street. So it ain't as good as it looks.

Key points in September's data:

YoY, aggregate dollar volume jumped 18.56%. Condo dollar volume surged 29% and that of homes grew 11%,
Sales volume was robust, increasing 34.96% YoY. Condos and homes both shared in the positive growth, increasing 41.75% and 28.84%, respectively.
Prices continue their tale of woe. Average prices fell 12.15%. Condo prices fell 8.98%, while home prices dropped 13.82%. As in August, not a single home category experienced higher prices YoY.
At September's sales rate, there is a 5.35 month's supply of condo units on the market, 8.82% more than August. For homes, 6.39 months, 15.9% more.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

MRIS September 2009 Housing Report [preliminary]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:00:00 +0000

MRIS released September's data for sales of existing homes in the District over the weekend. As in my District sales data, it shows that prices are falling, but volume is up. We're at the point where, at least in terms of dollar and sales volume, the metrics should be significantly higher than last year's, since we're marking the first anniversary of the financial collapse delivered to us by the Bagatelle brunching "kings" of Wall Street. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume up 18.56%
Average price is down 12.15%, median is down 4.7%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] exploded 34.96%
Home unit sales up 28.8%
Condo unit sales up a whopping 41.76%

Sales prices were 91.78% of list. At September's sales pace, there is a 5.35 month supply of condos and 6.39 month supply of homes listed for sale, slightly higher than the previous month.

Analysis forthcoming.

District Sales: August 2009 [preliminary]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:00:00 +0000

I've begun processing the District's sales data for August 2009. While I'm in the early stages, here's an early [unadjusted] peek at the data.

District Sales: July 2009

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:00:00 +0000

I've finished processing, geocoding, and uploading sales data for July 2009. The table below shows July 2009 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code and the percentage change from July 2008. This blog is starting to sound like "99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall" - each month's verse is the same, it's just the month that changes. Once again, sales volume up, prices down. "Sell one more, for a lower price..." I think I'll stick to my day job.

I noticed our Canadian friends have bought another property, a rowhouse near the Capitol, paying slightly more than $2.2M. I guess the toonie goes further down here now.

State of the Market

In July the District recorded 760 residential sales. Overall, prices were down, sales volume was up. District-wide, average sales price fell 9.93% and the median sales price fell 10.2%. Unit sales were up 8.57%. The condo market suffered a 1.48% increase in unit sales and dollar volume declined 8.21%. The number of homes sold grew a healthy 15.19% and dollar volume was up a slight 1.58%. However, average and median sales prices for homes fell sharply, down 11.82% and down 19.57%, respectively. By my estimation, foreclosures accounted for 68 of the recorded sales, about 8.9% of sales.

All but two Wards saw declines in average and median prices; two (Wards 3 and 6) had positive price growth. Despite that, all but three had an increase in unit sales.

Condo sales ruled Wards 1 and 2, constituting 74.49% and 78.57% of units sold, respectively.

Almost all neighborhoods saw declines in average and median prices.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of July's recorded sales by sales price.

Detailed Data

Sales by Neighborhood

Category by Zip Code

Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

Fair warning to all home owners

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:00:00 +0000

Happy Friday!

S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:00:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for July 2009 was released Tuesday. You could almost hear the champagne bottles popping all over the country, considering how the media reported it. The report show "although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading."

“The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two composites and all metro areas are showing an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, the 10-City and 20-City Composites and 18 of the 20 metros areas increased in July. In addition, both Composites and 13 of the MSA have had at least three consecutive months of positive prints. These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.”

The report's chart shows that nationally, home prices are back to "the autumn of 2003" level. YoY, DC area prices are 9.81% lower. While prices continue to rise in the DC area, the price increase June/July was less than that of May/June.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

District Sales: July 2009 [by neighborhood]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:00:00 +0000

I've begun analyzing the District's sales data for July 2009. If all goes well, I should complete the analysis by week's end. Below is a table showing sales by District neighborhood. As usual, Old City I and Old City II dominate sales.

District Sales: July 2009 uploaded

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 02:34:00 +0000

District sales data for July 2009 has been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com. Analysis forthcoming.

District Sales: July 2009 [preliminary]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 11:00:00 +0000

I've begun processing the District's sales data for July 2009. While I'm in the early stages, here's an early [unadjusted] peek at the data.

MRIS Analyses: Year to date sales trends

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:00:00 +0000

Using MRIS's 2009 data published to date [August], I thought it'd be interesting to see the sales trends for sales of existing homes and condos in the District.

Price Trend

Generally, prices are flat to slightly negative for the year. Compared to January, August's aggregate sales prices are 5.86% lower. Condos are down 6.33% and home prices are essentially flat, down 0.7%.

Price Change

Except for three months when condo prices spiked, YoY prices are in negative territory compared to 2008.

Sales Volume

What's particularly quite striking is the significant increase in sales volume as the year progressed, which I'm sure results in no small part from the Fed's efforts to create market liquidity through its purchase of $1.45T in mortgages. Despite the surge in sales, though, prices continue to slide.

MRIS August 2009 Housing Report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:00:00 +0000

MRIS released its data for August signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District last Thursday. As in its July report, sales and dollar volume are up and prices are lower than the same period last year. However, August's data were slightly weaker than July's. Where it was positive, it was not as positive.

Key points in August's data:

Overall dollar volume was flat, ticking upwards a slight 0.59%. Compared to July, Ausgust was a more temperate month for condos, with a 7.58% upward movement. Homes were down by 3.7%.
Sales volume was good, increasing 20.16% YoY, but, again, not as strong as July. Condos and homes both shared in the positive growth, increasing 16.54% and 23.89%, respectively.
Prices told a sad tale, each metric almost exactly matching July's performance. Average prices fell 16.29%. Condo prices fell 7.68%, while home prices tanked, dropping 22.27%. Not a single home category experienced higher prices in August.
At July's sales rate, there is a 4.92 month's supply of condo units on the market, 6.64% less than July. For homes, 5.51 months, 7.29% more.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

District Sales: June 2009

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:00:00 +0000

Hello, how are you? Long time, no data! Ever since I returned from Australia last December, I keep falling into the trap of having to process three month's worth of data at a time. It's a killer. Anyway, I've finished processing, geocoding, and uploading sales data for March through June 2009. I don't plan to perform an analysis of March - May's sales data, but I will soon post sales listings for purchase, yours for the incredible price of $0.99!

The table below shows June 2009 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code and the percentage change from June 2008.

There are still a lot of foreclosures working through the system. I counted 47 probable foreclosures in the data.

State of the Market

In June the District recorded 710 residential sales. Overall, prices were down, sales volume was up. District-wide, average sales price fell 11.67% and the median sales price fell 3.65%. The condo market suffered a 1.21% drop in unit sales and dollar volume declined 6.77%. The number of homes sold grew a robust 25.08% and dollar volume was similarly positive, up 2.11%. However, average and median sales prices for homes fell, down 18.37% and down 8.97%, respectively.

All Wards saw declines in average prices and only two (Wards 1 and 3) had positive median price growth.

Condo sales ruled Wards 1 and 2, constituting 71.3% and 76.72% of units sold, respectively.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of June's recorded sales by sales price.

Detailed Data

Sales by Neighborhood

Category by Zip Code

Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

MRIS August 2009 Sales Report: Preliminary data

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:48:00 +0000

MRIS released August's data for sales of existing homes in the District yesterday. As in my District sales data, it shows that prices are falling, but volume is up. Unclear how much of that is driven by foreclosures. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume flat, up a mere 0.59%
Average price is down 16.29%, median is down 7.59%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] surged up 20.16%
Home unit sales up 23.9%
Condo unit sales spiked up 16.54%

Sales prices were 92.49% of list. At August's sales rate, there is a 4.9 month supply of condos and 5.54 month supply of homes listed for sale, which would normally be an indicator of a tight market.

Analysis forthcoming.

District Sales: June 2009 [By Neighborhood]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 02:24:00 +0000

OK, I've started analyzing the sales data I just finished processing. The table below shows District prices and sales volume for June 2009, by neighborhood. Old City I and II had the lion's share of the month's transactions.

As you can see below, compared to June 2008, 73 more homes/condos sold in June 2009, but average/median prices fell and total dollar volume fell, too.

On another note, as you can see [waaaay down at the bottom right of this page] I've started investigating what I can do with this site and the "Facebooks". I've even started a Group, DCHousingPrices.com. Given that the NY Times is reporting people are leaving Facebook, maybe I've missed the boat on this one. Should I check out MySpace?

Sales data uploaded

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 10:40:00 +0000

Sales data through June 30, 2009 has been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com. Analysis forthcoming.

I gotta quit falling behind - this is killing me. It would be easier if the District quit misspelling its own street names, too. Repeat after me: Sedgwick, not Sedgewick. Runnymede, not Runnymeade.

S&P/Case-Shiller: June 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:45:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for June 2009 was released today. The report show "show that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the second quarter of 2009."

“The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded a 14.9% decline in the 2nd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2008. While still a substantial negative annual rate of return, this is an improvement over the record decline of 19.1% reported in the 1st quarter of the year. ”

The report's chart shows that nationally, home prices are back to "their early-2003 levels." YoY, DC area prices are 11.69% lower. However, prices have increased each month since March 2009. The DC area's home price index is close to that of December 2008.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

MRIS July 2009 Housing Report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 06:22:00 +0000

Despite my being on vacation last week, MRIS insisted on adhering to its schedule and last Monday released July's data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District. Sales and dollar volume are up and prices are lower than the same period last year. So, yes, sales are up and yes, the supply is dropping, but prices are still falling. Keep the champagne on ice [if you're a seller].

July's data are interesting:

Overall dollar volume was up 6.73%. It was an explosive month for condos, with a 22.35% upward movement. Homes ticked down by 0.91%. Attached homes were uniformly positive in their performance for the month.
Sales volume was tremendous, increasing a robust 28.06% YoY. Condos and homes both shared in the positive growth, increasing 29.29% and 26.97%, respectively.
However, all was not rosy if you were a seller: average prices fell 16.66%. Condo prices fared better, only declining 5.37%, while home prices tanked, dropping 21.96%. Not a single home category experienced higher prices in July.
Of all homes and condos sold, 46 units - 7.1% of all sales - sold for more than $1MM.
At July's sales rate, there is a 5.27 month's supply of condo units on the market, 13.86% less than June. For homes, 5.14 months, 6.97% less. Compared to July 2008, the number of condos listed grew 3.5% and fell 2.7% for homes.

Side note: I'm still processing District sales data for March - June. Before I can complete that work, upload the data, and post an analysis, I first need to attend to my "extensive" IT infrastructure and modify some Excel VB code that, quite honestly, makes this a more onerous task than it should be.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Vaca!

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 11:00:00 +0000

We're off to the beach for the next few days. Why let Congress have all the fun?

Don Rickles says it all!

What's a seller to do?

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:18:00 +0000

So let's say you're this seller and you're trying to sell a rowhouse in DC:

You read that home sales increased in June.
The S&P Index is up 11% YTD.
But, as of June 2009, the YoY US inflation rate is -1.4%.
And, foreclosures account for a significant proportion of all home sales, nationwide.
Your house, well situated a block from I-295, has been on the market for more than 90 days.
In fact, its construction hasn't even been completed.

What do you do? Raise its price by 4.76%, of course. That'll draw in the buyers!

Back in the saddle again

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:00:00 +0000

It's been a while since I've been able to do it, but I've begun processing sales data for the District. The table below depicts District sales for March - June 2009.

As you can tell, I've got a lot of data to process.