DC Home and Condo Prices

MRIS June 2009 Sales Report: Preliminary data

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:42:00 +0000

MRIS released June's data for sales of existing homes in the District today. A huge number of properties sold for more than $1MM, 51 of 612 sales. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume up 4.49%
Average price is down 6.25%, median is down 1.67%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] up 11.27%
Home unit sales up 16.67%
Condo unit sales up 5.34%

Sales prices were 92.51% of list. At June's sales rate, the condo market has a 6.07 month supply listed for sale, which is actually a sign of a normal market.

Analysis forthcoming.

MRIS May 2009 Housing Report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:17:00 +0000

It's been almost a month since MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District during May 2009. Since June's data will be released in 5 days, here's an abbreviated synopsis of May's data. The condo market is on life support. Home prices are being propped up by the high end market; 27 homes - 10% of all home sales - sold for more than $1MM. If it weren't for those homes, I suspect average home prices would have been even lower.

In May's data we see:

A huge drop in dollar volume, down more than 20%. That of condos fell 29.25% YoY and dropped 16.34% for homes.
Overall, 9.19% fewer units sold. Condos fell 20.66% while homes rose 2.67%.
Average prices fell 13.34%. Condo prices were 10.82% lower, homes fell 18.51%.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

S&P/Case-Shiller: April 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:29:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for April 2009 was released yesterday. The report says "that, although still negative, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved." Left unsaid was that some of the lowest mortgage rates on record were available in April, rates that have increased since. May and June's data will be crucial to determine whether strength is really returning to the market

"The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here."

YoY, DC area prices fell 16.88% and, from March to April, prices increased 0.78%. The DC area's home price index is close to that of December 2003 and January 2004.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

Lessons Learned

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:50:00 +0000

Now that we've moved into the new house with newly chipped glazing and newly scuffed/gouged paintwork, I thought I'd offer some lessons learned from our experience in buying our home, with the understanding that we made our purchase in a market where mortgage rates had hit record lows.

Know the market

DC's market is segmented by quadrant, zip code, neighborhood, and price range. For example, we were looking for a place with a minimum 2 bedrooms in NW DC, preferably not a fixer upper. I searched in zip codes 20005, 20007, 20008, 20009, 20011, 20015, and 20016. The magic number appeared to be $600K: below it, condos; above it, rowhouses or semi-/detached housing. Detached homes generally started in the $700s, although there were a few in the mid to upper $600s.

I know people are waiting for home prices to fall. I did. However, understand that not all homes are alike. My experience was that condo prices are falling; wait and see is probably a good strategy. For single family homes, I found that if it's priced right and in move in condition, it'll sell in a week at list price. Homes with problems - original 1930s kitchen, oddly flowing rooms - will sell, but not at the original list price and they'll take longer to sell.

But, I never met anyone who simply wanted to give away their house. Base your offer on your estimate of the home's market value, not on some "always offer 20% less than asking price" rule your old Uncle T-John used to tout.

Condos are Challenged

The main problem I had with condos, size and design aside, was the condo fee. I can't possibly imagine facing a non-deductible, open-ended [in the sense that it could increase ad infinitum] monthly fee ranging from $500-800/month on top of my monthly note. If I can swing a note and that fee, then maybe I can afford a house. I have to believe many buyers are turned off when they discover the beautiful condo fee attached to the gorgeous condo.

And then there are the poor folks in these massive complexes in the Cathedral/Mass Ave area whose units are reasonably priced, but carry monthly fees in excess of $2000.

Get Data

You can never get too much information. Use all the internet resources available. I relied heavily upon FranklyMLS.com, Redfin, and Sawbuckrealty.com to understand current price trends, to track specific properties, and to be alerted when new properties hit/left the market or took pricing actions. FranklyMLS.com rocked: I could slice/dice the data any way I wanted and the email alerts were very handy.

Money

Talk to a loan officer before you start your search, before you talk to a real estate agent. Know what you can truly afford and what your options are.

You gotta have cash. The days of second mortgages are gone for a while so you must be able to put at least 10% down. When I applied for a mortgage, second mortgages were out of the question - the market had dried up. And don't forget that you'll still need cash for closing; I was told to expect closing costs equal to about 3% of the transaction value.

Which leads to seller subsidy! Talk to your real estate agent, it may be a way to get the seller to help pay for your closing costs. Include it in your pricing strategy.

Know what you can borrow and what it's going to cost you. Your credit score really does dictate your options.

Find out if you can get lender paid mortgage insurance; my loan officer suggested it and although it cost me a few points on the front-end, it's saving me thousands in PMI every year.

It's a business transaction

Buying a home can be an emotionally trying time. However, you have to drop the emotion or you'll make bad decisions. Treat the purchase as a business transaction. Develop a pricing strategy and set limits before you look. Know the property's comparables before you make an offer. Be willing to walk. When I bought my home in Dallas, I walked away from the deal when the sellers became too intransigent after I'd conceded on almost every point of their counter. They were shocked when I walked, they were scolded by their agent, they conceded on the "walking" point, and I got the house.

Which also leads to: it's about getting the house, not putting the screws to someone. Win-win, good; win-lose, no deal.

Ignore the drapes

You're buying a house, not the seller's furniture, art, and drapery. You have to turn a blind eye to it - look at the room sizes, the flow of the house, and its condition. That brown bathtub - it can be replaced. That pink bathroom - it can be reglazed and re-equipped for less than $2500. That cranberry dining room - it can be repainted. That awful furniture - it'll be gone once the seller leaves. I didn't care for the house we bought when I first saw it. When I saw it the second time, I realized it was a solid house, all the problems were cosmetic and easily fixable. The home's true value was that it offered a relatively low entry price into a desireable neighborhood. If I have to paint a bathroom "Belgian Sweet" to get that, show me the roller!

Other stuff

Know that reported sales data may not be telling the entire story. Seller subsidies result in overstated market pricing data. In other words, a home that's recorded as selling at $700K may actually have sold for $650K with a seller subsidy of $50K. The home's true market value is $650K, the rest was necessary to seal the deal.

When you write a contract, for any event that must occur within a set number of days, specify "business days", e.g., "15 business days." Better to be specific than not. One part of my transaction - the appraisal - took an inordinately long time and we blew past the 15 day limit. While my agent said not to worry, I worried thanks to the Dallas couple I'd dealt with in 1993.

Don't assume your real estate agent or loan officer is tracking your transaction's progress once it's gone to contract. You have to manage it and stay on top of it.

Don't assume that the loan documents are error free. Read them and question anything that doesn't seem right. Are recordation fees included in the Good Faith Estimate (GFE)? What about escrow amounts? Don't be afraid to ask questions.

Good luck!

Moving Day!

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 01:52:00 +0000

This is it! We move to the new house Saturday.

In the past three weeks, everything on the task list for June has been accomplished:

PMP: passed.
Floors: refinished.
Door locks: changed.
Window sash locks: installed.
Painting: completed except for one bathroom.
Pink toilet and sink: removed and recycled.
Yellow toilet and sink: removed and recycled.
Granite countertops: installed.
Pink tile and tub: reglazed and then chipped by the painter's crew.
New neighbors: met.
Soon to be former neighbors: addresses exchanged.
Rental house close out: scheduled.
Comcast: don't ask.
Partner's grandkids: welcomed to DC with kisses and loving arms.
Job: kept [so far].

And somehow, our relationship remains intact.

I'm ready for the beach!

No T-shirt for me

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 20:35:00 +0000

I went to Savannah and all I got was...

MRIS May 2009 Sales Report: Preliminary data

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:37:00 +0000

OK. I've closed on the house, the floors have been redone, and hopefully the rest of the interior touch up will be completed by the end of next week. And let me tell you, preparing for the PMP test isn't a walk in Logan Circle, either.

MRIS released May's data for sales of existing homes in the District yesterday. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume collapsed, down 21.3%
Average price is down 13.34%, median is down 10.24%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] down 9.19%
Home unit sales eked a small gain, up 2.67%
Condo unit sales tanked, down 20.66%

Sales prices were 91.4% of list, about the same as April. Based on my recent experience, without having access to real MRIS data there's no way to tell how omitting seller subsidies would affect this statistic, i.e., it could be much lower, ditto average/median sales price. At May's sales rate, the condo market has a 8.1 month supply listed for sale, homes 7.2 months.

Analysis forthcoming.

Adieu, indeed

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 00:59:00 +0000

I received this friendly, positive comment from Arcticrose today:

I am moving out of DC all together! This city has unrealistic prices, very horrible weather and lots of crime.
I am going back to southern France. Enjoy your muggy summers.
Adieu :)

Yeah, you bet. Real estate prices in Paris are extremely reasonable, the weather there is reminiscent of a tropical paradise, and there are no prisons in France [surely this article is a work of fiction].

I speak four languages: English, Texan, New Orleanian, and French (a little). Since Articrose is obviously not fluent in English, I'll communicate my response in the other three:

New Orleanian: Bitter, table for one!
French: Il n'y a ni l'hiver ni la pluie ni l'humidité au sud de la France? C'est incroyable, ça. Mais je pense qu'il y a plus d'ignorance maintenant.
Texan: Don't let the door hit you on the way out, pardner!

Setting expectations

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:41:00 +0000

My parents recently celebrated their 51st wedding anniversary. When asked the secret to their marriage's longevity, my mother replied, "Low expectations!" My partner has taken that comment to heart [we celebrate 25 years in August].

So, to set your expectations appropriately, I have a busy June ahead of me:

I close on my house Friday.
I'll then be hiring painters, floor finishers, reglazers, countertop folks, plumbers, and locksmiths to touch the place up before we move in.
Until we move in, I'll be acting as de facto general contractor, managing all those folks I listed above.
I go to Savannah, GA for a family reunion.
I study for and [hopefully] pass the PMI PMP test.
Occasionally I'll go to work.
And then we move to the new house!

So forgive me if I don't update as frequently as I have in the past. Rest assured, I've collected and processed sales data and, when the storm passes, will post it here.

Wish me luck!

Now we're talking REAL money

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Fri, 29 May 2009 18:22:00 +0000

Saw this news report a few minutes ago. It addresses the key weakness I saw with the $8000 first time home buyer credit, which was that it provided no immediate help to potential home buyers - you couldn't use it for a down payment or closing costs.

The Federal Housing Administration will allow the new $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit to be applied directly toward home purchase costs when using an FHA-insured mortgage, the Department of Housing and Urban Development said on Friday.

S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 26 May 2009 17:54:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for March 2009 was released today. The report says "the U.S. National Home Price Index continues to set record declines, a trend that began in late 2007 and prevailed throughout 2008."

"Declines in residential real estate continued at a steady pace into March,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “All 20 metro areas are still showing negative annual rates of change in average home prices with nine of the metro areas having record annual declines. Seventeen metro areas recorded a monthly decline in March, with Minneapolis, Detroit and New York posting record monthly declines. On a positive note, nine of MSAs are reporting a relative improvement in year-over-year returns and nine of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to February. Furthermore, this is the second month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City Composites did not post a record annual decline. Based on the March data, however, we see no evidence that that a recovery in home prices has begun...
As of March 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in the fourth quarter of 2002. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 32.2%."

YoY, DC area prices fell 18.36% and, from February to March, prices declined 1.2%. Compared to previous months, the steepness of the price decline slope appears to be lessening. The DC area's home price index is close to that of December 2003.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

MRIS April 2009 Housing Report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 19 May 2009 12:00:00 +0000

Last week MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District during April 2009. In a nutshell, sales volume up, prices down.

[Updated to correct condo data errors] What I'm seeing in April's data :

Despite a 13.32% increase in unit sales, dollar volume was flat, up 0.62%. Considering that 31 properties sold for more than $1MM, I interpret this to mean that prices at the market's low end are falling substantially.
More homes sold [up 17.82%], but at lower prices [down 21.17%]; overall dollar volume was 2.08% lower. 22 homes sold for more than $1MM.
YoY, condo unit sales were up 7.83%, dollar volume popped 16.76%. Average prices rose 8.28% to $453,037. I attribute much of the increase in dollar volume and average price to the 9 condos that sold for more than $1MM.
Based on March's sales volume, there is a 9.9 month inventory of condos listed [a 9.19% increase from March] and 8.34% month's supply for homes [a 7.38% decrease]. Compared to March 2008, the number of condos listed is up 3.2%, while home listings grew 4.42%.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

District Sales: February 2009

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Sun, 17 May 2009 01:42:00 +0000

I've completed my analysis of February 2009 sales of homes and condos, as recorded by the District. The table below shows February 2009 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code and the percentage change from February 2008.

Foreclosures were still a significant portion of the "sales" recorded in February, 72 of 372, 0r 19.35%. Deutsche Bank is really taking it on the chin; they "bought" 19 of those 72 properties.

The following table shows the change in prices and sales volume for each District neighborhood; few were in the black for the month. YoY, dollar volume fell by $32.7MM and 69 fewer units sold.

State of the Market

In February the District recorded 372 residential sales. The average sales price fell 1.76% and the median sales price fell 14.83%. The condo market was clobbered: unit sales were down 41.84% YoY and dollar volume tumbled 40.24%. The number of homes sold grew 2.38% and dollar volume was similarly positive, up 2.71%. Average and median sales prices for homes were flat to negative, up 0.32% and down 14.77%, respectively.

Wards 2, 3, and 6 had a positive month, experiencing price increases despite a precipitous fall in unit volume.

Condo sales ruled Wards 1 and 2, constituting 52.73% and 78.95% of units sold, respectively.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of February's recorded sales by sales price.

Detailed Data

Sales by Neighborhood

Category by Zip Code

Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

MRIS April 2009 Housing Report: Preliminary data

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 12 May 2009 01:25:00 +0000

MRIS released April's data for sales of existing homes in the District today. A huge number of properties sold for more than $1MM, 31 of 417 sales. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume flat, up 0.62% [flat is the new "growth"]
Average price is down 11.2%, median is down 10.98%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] up 13.32%
Home unit sales up 17.82%
Condo unit sales up 7.83%

Sales prices were 91.15% of list, about the same as March. At April's sales rate, the condo market has a 9.9 month supply listed for sale, a 10% slip from March.

Analysis forthcoming.

District Sales: February 2009 [By Neighborhood]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Sat, 09 May 2009 02:11:00 +0000

I've completed processing District sales for February 2009. As a first step, sales by neighborhood are displayed below. Old City II had the largest share of units sold that month, 16.94% of all unit sold in the District that month, and ditto dollar volume, 15.75%.

More to come.

I feel fine!

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:20:00 +0000

I'm utterly swamped at work and at home; a short non-swine flu illness hasn't helped, either. In my spare moments, I've completed the analysis of District sales for February 2009 and will post it when I get a chance.

S&P/Case-Shiller: February 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:49:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for February 2009 was released two days ago. Although prices continue to decline, the report says "the pace of the decline in residential real estate prices slowed in February."

"...shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 10 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 15 reporting declines in excess of 10% versus February 2008. For the first time in 16 months, however, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City composites did not set a new record."
“While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “All 20 metro areas recorded a monthly decline in February, but 16 of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to January. Nine of the 20 metro areas showed improvement in their annual returns compared to their returns in January. Furthermore, this is the first month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City Composites did not post a record annual decline. We will certainly need a few more months of data before we can determine if home prices are finally turning around.”

Unfortunately, the DC area's market was not one of the 16 metro areas showing improvement in monthly returns. YoY, prices fell 19.19% and, from January to February, prices declined 2.3%. The DC area's home price index is close to that of February 2004.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

District Sales: February 2009 [preliminary]

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 01:59:00 +0000

I've finally begun working on District sales data for February 2009. Please forgive the delay, work and house buying have taken all my spare cycles.

Analysis forthcoming.

Meet the Gazillionaire

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 20:25:00 +0000

There've been a number of articles about the sale I mentioned in my last post. The property was sold to this fellow for $7.295MM. With a living area of 4415 sq ft [$1652/sq ft], the condo has 4 bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms. The previous owner bought it for $4.5MM in December 2005. Whowuzat?

Car mogul Jamie Darvish bought a four-bedroom, six-bathroom penthouse apartment at the Ritz-Carlton in Georgetown for $4.5 million. The apartment listed for $6 million and has a master bedroom with a wall of windows overlooking the Potomac as well as a private terrace. Darvish, whose father, John Darvish, founded Darcars Automotive Group, is general manager of his family’s company.

It turns out a mere bazillionaire bought a unit in the same building for $4.6MM in March, too.

In terms of dollar volume, these two sales represent 13% of condo sales and 5.86% of all sales in March. Removing the gazillionaire and bazillionaire condos from the analysis, it turns out dollar volume for condos was up a slight 1.25% YoY and the average price for condos was up 14.2%.

MRIS March 2009 Housing Report: The Gazillionaire Effect

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 02:35:00 +0000

Last week MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District during March 2009. I have to say it was an odd month. As you can see below, all metrics - save transaction volume - were negative.

When you look at the data, you'd think there's a sudden boomlet in condo sales since MRIS' data show a 16.37% increase in dollar volume and an almost 30% increase in average sales prices for that market. However, a little investigation showed that ten condos sold for more than $1MM; two cost between $2.5-5MM and one sold for more than $5MM. The latter, located at the Georgetown Ritz-Carlton, sold for $7.295MM and was the subject of a story by my buddies at UrbanTurf. Since MRIS' data aren't granular enough for detailed analysis, it's difficult to determine the degree to which these particular sales skewed the market. At least until I analyze the District's sales data. Since the Ritz-Carlton sale clouds an effective analysis of the month's sales using MRIS data, I declare the month null and void thanks to the Gazillionare Effect.

What I'm seeing in March's data:

More homes sold [up 14.21%], but at lower prices [down 26.04%], so overall dollar volume was 15.52% lower. Nineteen homes sold for more than $1MM.
YoY, condo unit sales fell 10.34% and average prices rose 29.79%, which is is questionable thanks to the gazillionaire's purchase at the Ritz.
Based on March's sales volume, there is a 9.07 month inventory of condos listed [a huge 43.76% decrease from February] and 9 month's supply for homes [a 25.04% decrease]. Compared to February 2008, the number of condos listed is up 1.98%, while home listings grew 8.14%.

I wonder what the condo fee is at the Ritz-Carlton.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

MRIS March 2009 Sales Report: Preliminary data

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:54:00 +0000

Today, MRIS released March's data for sales of existing homes in the District. Although the market isn't improving, its precipitous decline has slackened, at least for now. Key points [YoY]:

Dollar volume down 3.6%
Average price is down 5.05%, median is down 6.13%
Unit sales volume [aggregate] up 1.53%
Home unit sales up 14.2%
Condo unit sales down 10.3%

Sales prices were 91.81% of list, much better than the previous two months. At March's sales rate, the condo market has a 9 month supply listed for sale, a significant improvement.

My own experience during la chasse has been that, for the most part, homes that are in move-in condition and are priced right move quickly. Otherwise, they sit on the market and experience the joys of periodic price reductions of up to $80K at a pop [the $400K price reduction yesterday of 2501 Wisconsin Ave NW #403 was quite spectacular].

Analysis forthcoming after a quick trip to Kansas to see the grandkids [and their parents].

Schadenfreude

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 19:15:00 +0000

Some of you may remember this golden oldie. It discussed the increasing difficulty Wall Streeters were having in obtaining mortgages for Manhattan apartments. Among the gems was this statement from a NYC real estate professional:

The problems facing buyers from Wall Street won’t necessarily cause Manhattan apartment prices to slide drastically, said Diane M. Ramirez, the president of Halstead Property, though they could result in slightly less competition for properties and prompt more sellers to negotiate.

Talk about a blown call. From today's NY Times:

...the Manhattan real estate market has just begun a steep slide. It parallels the decline in New York’s financial services industry, and housing analysts say it may continue long after other markets heal.
...housing analysts are predicting a prolonged slump in prices and sales that could last as long as four or five years.
In this year’s first quarter, sales of co-ops and condominiums in Manhattan plunged nearly 60 percent from the first quarter of 2008. Average co-op prices fell as much as 24 percent in the same period, according to various market reports released last week.

How far may prices fall?

[Jonathan J. Miller, an appraiser who prepares quarterly reports on Manhattan] said that during the last big real estate downturn, ... studio apartments were so cheap that he considered buying one on a credit card...

What's in your wallet?

District Sales: January 2009

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:00:00 +0000

I've completed my analysis of January 2009 sales of homes and condos, as recorded by the District. Compared to the last two analyses I performed, this was a piece of cake - only 432 sales to process. The table below shows January 2009 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code and the percentage change from January 2008.

By my count, 75 recorded sales - 17.36% of the month's transactions - were foreclosures; Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC were among the lucky "buyers".

The following table shows the change in prices and sales volume for each District neighborhood; few were in the black for the month. YoY, dollar volume fell by $62.2MM and 59 fewer units sold.

State of the Market

In January the District recorded 432 residential sales. The average sales price fell 15.97% and the median sales price fell 14.95%. The condo market was decked: unit sales were down 39.57% YoY and dollar volume tumbled 42.55%. Condo prices fell, too.The number of homes sold soared 23.94% and dollar volume was similarly positive, up 21.43%. However, average and median sales prices for homes fell 27.56% and 30.06%, respectively. Sixty of the foreclosures were of single family homes, which may explain the opposing direction of prices and volume.

Wards 3 and 6 had a positive month, experiencing price increases despite a precipitous fall in unit volume.

Condo sales ruled Wards 1, 2, and 6, constituting 59.18%, 76.79%, and 54.44% of units sold, respectively.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of January's recorded sales by sales price.

Download the Data

You can download a listing of the District's January 2009 home and condo sales discussed in this post for $2.50. Information in the listing includes [see below]:

Address
Sale price and sale date
Unit number [if a condo and if available]
Price per square foot
Square footage
The number of bedrooms and baths for each unit

Note: Data may not be available for all properties. My analysis is dependent upon the completeness and fidelity of the District's appraisal data.

January 2009 Sales Listings

Detailed Data

Sales by Neighborhood

Category by Zip Code

Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

Whee!

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 01:26:00 +0000

I know how Snoopy feels! I just found out that the Washingtonian [see page 2] has named this one of the best blogs in DC.

What follows are some of the Web sites that make us enjoy living in the area even more—from great new voices and observations about Washington to resources that make it easier to work, live, and play here.

Hit it, Schroeder!

S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2009 report

noreply@blogger.com (dchousingprices@gmail.com) — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 21:07:00 +0000

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for January 2009 was released two days ago. The headline says it all: "The New Year Didn’t Change the Downward Spiral of Residential Real Estate Prices"

"Home prices, which peaked in mid-2006, continued their decline in 2009,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “There are very few bright spots that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and nine of the MSA’s falling more than 20% in the last year. Indeed, the two composites are very close to that rate and have been reporting consecutive annual record declines since October 2007. The monthly data follows a similar trend, with the 10-City and 20-City Composite showing thirty consecutive months of negative returns."

The DC area's market continues to decline; YoY, prices fell 19.34%. Prices fell 2.48% from December to January. The DC area's home price index continues its backwards march; it's now about equal to that of February 2004. While you may think that's awful, it's worse elsewhere:

As of January 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in late 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, the 10-City Composite is down 30.2% and the 20-City Composite is down 29.1%.
...Seven metro areas and the 20-City Composite recorded a record monthly decline in January. In addition, seven metro areas (not always the same seven) reported declines in excess of 4% in the month of January alone. Phoenix led with a report of -5.5%. Every MSA has had at least five consecutive months of decline, dating back to September 2008.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.