Deep Commodity Expert

Will Gold Continue to Fall? | gold markets | Stock markets

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 14 Sep 2015 08:40:00 +0000

Over the last year, gold markets have had a very difficult time in gaining bullish momentum.

There are a few different reasons for why this has occurred. Stock markets have rallied (garnering most of the market’s attention), and this has lifted sentiment at the expense of precious metals.

Additionally, we are likely to start seeing a rising interest rate environment and this is something that, historically, have done little to benefits assets that are tied to the value of gold and silver (this includes stock ETFs and commodity currencies, as well).

When we look at metals market from an historical perspective, positive trends start to emerge when stock prices are in decline,” said Tony Davis, metals sector analyst at Atlanta Gold and Coin. “This has helped gold prices stabilize over the last few weeks.”

Crude oil markets recovered more than a percent & China stocks slumped about 4% on Tuesday

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 25 Aug 2015 06:11:00 +0000

Crude oil markets recovered more than a percent on Tuesday after a sharp drop in the prior session, although prices held near 6-1/2-year lows as continued weakness in Chinese equities triggered fears of an economic tailspin in the region.

China's economy continues to slow and the (U.S.) Fed may still hike rates before the end of the year. That puts further cracks into the two main growth pillars for the world economy of recent years: Chinese demand (including commodities) and easy money," he said, but added that a re-run of Asia's financial crisis in the late 1990s was unlikely.

China stocks slumped about 4 percent on Tuesday, touching eight-month lows, as investors dumped shares after a grim "Black Monday" that battered global markets but failed to prompt fresh rescue measures from Beijing.

After opening 6.4 percent lower, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) trimmed some losses to end the morning down 4.3 percent at 3,071.06 points.

Agri - Commodity Market Update 24 AUG 2015

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 24 Aug 2015 07:59:00 +0000

24 AUG 2015 :-

Chana kept trading with high volatility last week as the initial uptrend from rising demand was followed by profit booking at the higher levels. Reports of further imports too kept pressure on the rising rates. Falling stocks and rising domestic demand would likely support the prices in coming weeks. Availability of chana is falling in Jalgaon, Gulbarga and Akola apart from Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra. As per traders, fall in stocks is seen gradually and moreover, there is much time for new crop arrival. Daal mills demand is also likely to increase in coming days.

Mentha Oil continued to find some strong support last week as demand started rising in the mandis . The downtrend may be limited as rising demand amidst lower arrivals supported the prices. Sources indicate rates have fallen to low levels over last few weeks and further fall may be limited as domestic and export demand rise.

JEERA : -As per the Agriculture Ministry, around 2.14 lakh ha crop has been damaged in Rajasthan, while 9,000 ha was damaged in Gujarat. In Gujarat, the total acreage is down 42% to 2.64 lakh ha compared to 4.54 lakh ha in 13-14. Jeera lost ground to coriander, fennel and fenugreek seed on comparatively lesser profit realisation in jeera during the last 2 years.

GUARSEED : -Fall in exports in April-June 2015-16 estimated at 61,821 tonnes vs 1.18 lakh tons same period last year—a fall of 48% have been noted, as per Govt reports. In 2014-15, guar production is estimated at around 20-22 lakh tonnes, as per Ministry of Agriculture, down 18-20% vs last year production of 25-27 lakh tonnes. With India exporting to European countries, the present financial crisis in Greece may adversely affect export demand from some European nations.

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TODAY GOLD AUGUST CONTRACT EXPIRY

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 05:26:00 +0000

GOLD:Gold steadied not far from a 5-1/2-year low early on Wednesday after comments from a Federal Reserve official backed investor expectations that the U.S. central bank would hike interest rates as early as next month.

MARKET NEWS UPDATE 20 july 2015

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 20 Jul 2015 09:40:00 +0000

1. Ahluwalia Contracts bags Rs318 crore orders
Ahluwalia Contracts has secured new orders aggregating Rs317.65 crores for construction of Institutional/Residential building, including Electrical, Plumbing and firefighting services.

2. Eros to fetch Rs100 crore from ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ release
Eros International: Eros’s much anticipated film of the year ‘ Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ hit the theatres and the film had an excellent first and second day at the Box Office. As per the trade sources, box office collection of the movie will cross Rs100 crore in the first weekend. Positive read-thru for Eros International.

3. Maruti Suzuki plans to hire 2,500 relationship managers for Nexa outlets
Maruti Suzuki planning to hire 2,500 relationship managers for its Nexa outlets; company plans for a premium buying experience with Nexa . Domestic passenger vehicle market leader ie Maruti Suzuki plans to hire upto 2,5000 relationship managers for its upcoming Nexa otlets.

4. Government planning to start work on 10 express highways
Government planning to start work on 10 express highways – Positive for IRB Infrastructure, IL&FS Transportation, Ashoka Buildcon, Sadbhav Engineering, KNR Constructions among others . As per media reports, the government is planning to start work on 10 world class express highways on the pattern of Mumbai Pune express highways. These include Nagpur-Mumbai, Bangalore-Chennai, Baroda-Mumbai, Katra-Amritsar and Ludhiana-Delhi

Intraday, F&O, Option, Delivery, Jackpot, Nifty indices, Commodity.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 11 Jun 2015 08:42:00 +0000

STOCK

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COMMODITY

Futures' trading is organized in such goods or commodities as are permitted by the Central Government. At present, all goods and products of agricultural (including plantation), mineral and fossil origin are allowed for futures trading under the auspices of the commodity exchanges recognized under the FCRA. The national commodity exchanges have been recognized by the Central Government for organizing.

Headlines Of Mcx-Commodity News

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 21 May 2015 08:22:00 +0000

Mcx-Commodity News

· Investors offloading positions for Lead

In the futures market, prices of Lead was weakened as speculators were seen offloading their...

· Futures of Natural Gas seen to be declining

Natural Gas was seen to be declining in the future markets with speculation rising about...

· Rising pricing predicted for Crude Oil

Crude Oil might be seeing a surge in the near future with growth in the Japanese economy – which...

· Copper prices fall along with other base metals

Base metals are seen to be on a downward trend today, and copper has also joined in the retreat.

· Nickel flat at the MCX; no signs of positivity

At the MCX, the metal was trading almost flat and hasn’t been showing any signs of positive trend....

· Silver not showing signs of growth at MCX

In the morning session, Silver was not seen trading positive at the MCX. Trading was almost flat in...

· Will gold prices drop to INR 25000 by December this...

With speculation rife on Gold, it seems that the yellow metal may hit a new low in this year and...

· Range-bound market for Aluminium, prices to mostly...

At the MCX, this commodity is seen to be trading flat with no signs of prices going high in the...

Natural Gas was seen to be declining in the future markets

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 20 May 2015 13:24:00 +0000

Natural Gas was seen to be declining in the future markets with speculation rising about stockpile.

As per media reports, in the US, gas inventories have risen by 99 billion cubic feet in the previous week and this stockpile might have negative impact on the commodity.

Also, with this, the demand of the commodity has not seen any positive trend, further resulting in the downfall in the prices in the international market.

In the domestic market, at the MCX, the commodity hasn’t been giving any positive trend and remains to trade almost flat. The demand in the Asian market hasn’t seen any uptrend and this may have had negative impact on the metal.

MCX plans to launch spot trading in gold?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 24 Apr 2015 18:43:00 +0000

Traders started building bullish bets on gold early Friday, a day after short covering pushed up the price by 1% to Rs 26,900 per 10 gm.

The build-up in intraday bullish bets is borne out by options data on US bourse Comex. At about noon India time, traders on Comex purchased more call options of the $1,200 strike price for June, while open interest in the $1,200 put options declined.

The $1,200 'out of the money' call added 131 contracts against a decline of 46 contracts in ..

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Rate hikes, Dollar strength will weaken Gold: Barclays

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 11 Nov 2014 05:55:00 +0000

Any cuts in production in the current environment are unlikely to tighten the gold market immediately, given weak demand. But cost pressures are mounting, as prices have fallen faster than costs.

LONDON(Commodity Online): The scope for rate hikes and a stronger dollar present insurmountable hurdles for gold. Although physical demand has picked up, it has not been sufficient to stem the tide of disinvestment. Risks to gold remain to the downside but ETP holdings could weaken the floor, a report by Barclays stated.

The precious metals complex has started to stabilise and rebound after gold prices have suffered a sharp decline and tumbled to levels last seen in April 2010. The rest of the complex has also been unable to escape unscathed. Platinum prices have breached $1200/oz again, testing levels last seen in July 2009 while silver prices have closed in on $15/oz and levels last seen in February 2010.

“As we have highlighted previously, the strength of the dollar is an insurmountable hurdle for gold and indeed, combined with the last FOMC meeting, the dollar strengthening to levels last seen just over a year ago has placed significant pressure on gold.

Gold, silver tumble to four-year lows on rocketing dollar

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 03 Nov 2014 04:47:00 +0000

Gold and silver slumped to their lowest since 2010 on Friday as the dollar and stock markets soared following a new round of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan and data showing a robust U.S. economy.

Spot gold slid 3 percent to its lowest since July 2010 at $1,161.25 an ounce in earlier trade and was down 2.8 percent at $1,164.64 by 1344 GMT.

The metal breached important support levels at $1,200 and $1,180, where stop losses -- automatic sale orders -- were placed and was on track for a 4.7 percent drop this week, the biggest weekly decline since June 2013.

U.S. gold futures were down $34.00 an ounce at $1,164.70.

"Spot gold is at its lowest for four years ... and it could fall further towards the $1,120 level if the dollar strengthened even more significantly," ActivTrades analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said.

"More stop losses could be triggered if we consistently broke below $1,170, but the downside seems limited by the fact that we are close to cost of production above $1,000."

Spot silver fell 4 percent to its lowest since February 2010 at $15.76 an ounce and was poised for a fourth monthly drop in a row. It was down 3.1 percent at $15.92.

Gold and silver were already facing some heat after the U.S. Federal Reserve earlier in the week largely dismissed financial market volatility, a slowdown in Europe and a weak inflation outlook as factors that might undercut progress towards its unemployment and inflation goals.

The hawkish comments and strong U.S. gross domestic product data on Thursday dulled gold's appeal as a hedge against risk.

how a retail investor can get started trading ?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 19 Sep 2014 09:31:00 +0000

Here's how a retail investor can get started:

Where do I need to go to trade in commodity futures?

You have three options - the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd and the National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. All three have electronic trading and settlement systems and a national presence.

How do I choose my broker?

Several already-established equity brokers have sought membership with NCDEX and MCX. The likes of Refco Sify Securities, SSKI (Sharekhan) and ICICIcommtrade (ICICIdirect), ISJ Comdesk (ISJ Securities) and Sunidhi Consultancy are already offering commodity futures services. Some of them also offer trading through Internet just like the way they offer equities. You can also get a list of more members from the respective exchanges and decide upon the broker you want to choose from.

What is the minimum investment needed?

You can have an amount as low as Rs 5,000. All you need is money for margins payable upfront to exchanges through brokers. The margins range from 5-10 per cent of the value of the commodity contract. While you can start off trading at Rs 5,000 with ISJ Commtrade other brokers have different packages for clients.

For trading in bullion, that is, gold and silver, the minimum amount required is Rs 650 and Rs 950 for on the current price of approximately Rs 65,00 for gold for one trading unit (10 gm) and about Rs 9,500 for silver (one kg).

The prices and trading lots in agricultural commodities vary from exchange to exchange (in kg, quintals or tonnes), but again the minimum funds required to begin will be approximately Rs 5,000.

Do I have to give delivery or settle in cash?

You can do both. All the exchanges have both systems - cash and delivery mechanisms. The choice is yours. If you want your contract to be cash settled, you have to indicate at the time of placing the order that you don't intend to deliver the item.

If you plan to take or make delivery, you need to have the required warehouse receipts. The option to settle in cash or through delivery can be changed as many times as one wants till the last day of the expiry of the contract.

What do I need to start trading in commodity futures?

As of now you will need only one bank account. You will need a separate commodity demat account from the National Securities Depository Ltd to trade on the NCDEX just like in stocks.

What are the other requirements at broker level?

You will have to enter into a normal account agreements with the broker. These include the procedure of the Know Your Client format that exist in equity trading and terms of conditions of the exchanges and broker. Besides you will need to give you details such as PAN no., bank account no, etc.

What are the brokerage and transaction charges?

The brokerage charges range from 0.10-0.25 per cent of the contract value. Transaction charges range between Rs 6 and Rs 10 per lakh/per contract. The brokerage will be different for different commodities. It will also differ based on trading transactions and delivery transactions. In case of a contract resulting in delivery, the brokerage can be 0.25 - 1 per cent of the contract value. The brokerage cannot exceed the maximum limit specified by the exchanges.

Where do I look for information on commodities?

Daily financial newspapers carry spot prices and relevant news and articles on most commodities. Besides, there are specialised magazines on agricultural commodities and metals available for subscription. Brokers also provide research and analysis support.

But the information easiest to access is from websites. Though many websites are subscription-based, a few also offer information for free. You can surf the web and narrow down you search.

Who is the regulator?

The exchanges are regulated by the Forward Markets Commission. Unlike the equity markets, brokers don't need to register themselves with the regulator.

The FMC deals with exchange administration and will seek to inspect the books of brokers only if foul practices are suspected or if the exchanges themselves fail to take action. In a sense, therefore, the commodity exchanges are more self-regulating than stock exchanges. But this could change if retail participation in commodities grows substantially.

Who are the players in commodity derivatives?

The commodities market will have three broad categories of market participants apart from brokers and the exchange administration - hedgers, speculators and arbitrageurs. Brokers will intermediate, facilitating hedgers and speculators.

Hedgers are essentially players with an underlying risk in a commodity - they may be either producers or consumers who want to transfer the price-risk onto the market.

Producer-hedgers are those who want to mitigate the risk of prices declining by the time they actually produce their commodity for sale in the market; consumer hedgers would want to do the opposite.

For example, if you are a jewellery company with export orders at fixed prices, you might want to buy gold futures to lock into current prices. Investors and traders wanting to benefit or profit from price variations are essentially speculators. They serve as counterparties to hedgers and accept the risk offered by the hedgers in a bid to gain from favourable price changes.

In which commodities can I trade?

Though the government has essentially made almost all commodities eligible for futures trading, the nationwide exchanges have earmarked only a select few for starters. While the NMCE has most major agricultural commodities and metals under its fold, the NCDEX, has a large number of agriculture, metal and energy commodities. MCX also offers many commodities for futures trading.

Do I have to pay sales tax on all trades? Is registration mandatory?

No. If the trade is squared off no sales tax is applicable. The sales tax is applicable only in case of trade resulting into delivery. Normally it is the seller's responsibility to collect and pay sales tax.

The sales tax is applicable at the place of delivery. Those who are willing to opt for physical delivery need to have sales tax registration number.

What happens if there is any default?

Both the exchanges, NCDEX and MCX, maintain settlement guarantee funds. The exchanges have a penalty clause in case of any default by any member. There is also a separate arbitration panel of exchanges.

Are any additional margin/brokerage/charges imposed in case I want to take delivery of goods?

Yes. In case of delivery, the margin during the delivery period increases to 20-25 per cent of the contract value. The member/ broker will levy extra charges in case of trades resulting in delivery.

Is stamp duty levied in commodity contracts? What are the stamp duty rates?

As of now, there is no stamp duty applicable for commodity futures that have contract notes generated in electronic form. However, in case of delivery, the stamp duty will be applicable according to the prescribed laws of the state the investor trades in. This is applicable in similar fashion as in stock market.

How much margin is applicable in the commodities market?

As in stocks, in commodities also the margin is calculated by (value at risk) VaR system. Normally it is between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of the contract value. The margin is different for each commodity. Just like in equities, in commodities also there is a system of initial margin and mark-to-market margin. The margin keeps changing depending on the change in price and volatility.

Are there circuit filters?

Yes the exchanges have circuit filters in place. The filters vary from commodity to commodity but the maximum individual commodity circuit filter is 6 per cent. The price of any commodity that fluctuates either way beyond its limit will immediately call for circuit breaker.