Deep in the Hole

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Fri, 20 Jan 2017 10:59:00 +0000

Greg Jelks

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Fri, 06 Jan 2017 10:37:00 +0000

There are certain pieces of news that affect you more than you think they would or should.

Learning that Greg Jelks passed away today was one of those instances.

When the Defensive Specialist received notification that Jelks had passed this morning, the day took on a strange opaqueness, full of feelings of mortality, confusion and sadness. Sure, as one ages, the loss of those in your sphere takes on added weight because you begin to realise that you are not immortal. But why did the Defensive Specialist feel so dented?

Upon reflection it was because the man was part of the fabric of Western Australian and Australian baseball. It would be so simple to regurgitate the numbers to highlight how good he was. But it was his PRESENCE that made him stand out from the crowd. Unlike many other imports that graced our shores, Greg Jelks stuck around. Year after year, he was the guy you showed up to see. It was this aura that outshone just the numbers.

The man was beast mode before any of us knew what beast mode was. He was swag before swag was a thing.

As a youngster, he was the dude that only buttoned two buttons on his jersey, wore high tops (when wearing high tops with pants that were too short was kind of cool), splashed the gold chains and hit the angriest fucking line drives you’ve ever seen! His home run trots seemed like they took 35 minutes and the way he fielded ground balls was smoother than soft served ice cream.

As the Defensive Specialist got a little older, Greg Jelks became a team mate. He still hit the angriest fucking line drives you’ve ever seen but it also became apparent that he was a pretty good team mate too. He was still as cool as they come, but also a great teacher who wanted to help you get better. As strange as this may be for some of you to believe, there was a time when the Defensive Specialist was struggling at the plate, only to have Jelks say “move your hands back a little” after one particularly tough at bat. The next time up the Defensive Specialist went big fly. Maybe the advice worked, maybe it was luck – more likely it was the confidence that came with having a dude with that much gravitas pay attention to your swing and take the time to share his thoughts.

Today was spent reflecting on the impact Greg had on the baseball community. So many people shared their memories of nights spent watching him dominate the ABL. So many more told stories of him showing up at teeball clinics, training sessions and coaching clinics.

Rest in Peace Greg Jelks, you impacted the game in this country both on and off the field.

Against All Odds

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 12:38:00 +0000

By Tom Fee

Defensive Specialist's note: Due to technical issues with the Deep in the Hole super computer, this article comes a day late - apologies

Not sure about you, but I’m always glued to coolstandings.com pretty much from day one of any MLB season.

It might be because I’m a probability nerd, but it’s always amazing to see how teams consistently defy the odds and reach the playoffs out of no-where.

Who can forget Boston’s 2011 epic collapse? On the 3^rd of September 2011 Cool Standings gave the Red Sox a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs thanks to their nine game lead over Tampa Bay with only a month to play. Even after an unlikely comeback to tie with the Sox, the Rays looked done in a must win game 162, facing a 7-0 deficit in the 7^th inning to the Yankees while the Red Sox held a late 3-2 over the Orioles.

Against all odds, the Rays pulled back the most unlikely comeback, within the most unlikely comeback.

Fan-graphs puts it best with their summary of the event here.

The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3
The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.

With that, the ABL’s number-crunchers face a tough task of putting five teams into three places for the coming weekend. No percentage odds exist on the ABL website, and the reason behind this is that it’s actually quite time consuming to calculate, especially when considering tiebreaker scenarios! But with little much of a life (ie. A boring job) I’ve managed to perform a feat almost as impressive as the Ray’s 2011 comeback and present two scenarios for you to consider.

Not being an employee of Fan Graphs or Cool Standings, I am not actually aware of how these odds are calculated. A decent approximation would be to assume each game is equivalent to a coin flip, or a 50% chance to go either way. Since the league’s best sides sit on a 57% winning percentage, I thought this wouldn’t be too bad.

In each series there is a possibility of 5 results ie:

Home Sweep

Away Sweep

Split

3-1 Win to Home Side

3-1 win to the away side

For out three series this weekend we are given five different possibilities, leaving us with 3⁵= 125 possible different scenarios to consider at the end of the season.

Running these possibilities though my computer program and giving each team a 50% chance of winning spits out the following playoff chances:

Sydney	98%
Canberra	97%
Brisbane	84%
Perth	16%
Adelaide	5%

Being a Heat fan, I wasn’t too pleased with the 16% chance of having the ability to defend the Claxton Shield in the playoffs, so I thought I would use each team’s current win/loss records to skew the results. After all, Brisbane faces a much tougher task in facing Sydney away from home than the Heat have facing the cellar dwellers Melbourne Aces on their home patch.

Canberra	98%
Sydney	98%
Brisbane	77%
Perth	24%
Adelaide	3%

While I find a 24% chance a bit more palatable, it doesn’t tell the full story. Since I can’t tell my computer “by the way, Travis Blackley is pitching this weekend, and the Heat’s win loss record is skewed by the fact they were in form at the start of the season but currently resemble the Red Sox circa September 2011.”

Either way, even if I take a middle ground and give the Heat a 20% chance of winning, it’s still quite a few million times more likely than the Rays 2011 comeback, so I might as well book my flight over east for the Championship Series now!

Other interesting tid-bits:

There is a 0.39% chance of a 4 way tie for first, with Perth, Canberra, Brisbane and Sydney on 25 games each. In this scenario the ABL will utilise tiebreakers and declare Brisbane to take first place and Perth to be eliminated.

MEL	0	PER	4
CAN	1	ADE	3
BRI	3	SYD	1

Canberra holds the all-important tiebreaker over Sydney thanks to their controversial bang-bang play at the plate in the 12^th inning on Sunday. To the eye the play looked out, but slo-mo replays suggest the foot *might* have been off the bag. Sydney certainly didn’t think so, and losing the tiebreaker gives Canberra a much better chance of taking first and hosting the ABLCS.

The moment the ball was caught. With the bases loaded, all Sox catcher Geoffrey Klein needs to do is put his foot on the plate!

Instead Klein mistakenly goes for the tag! Ryan Stovall beats the tag (which is irrelevant), but perhaps was enough to confuse the umpire on his call of whether Klein got his foot on the plate in time.

The ABL’s tiebreaker rules favour teams who do well against the top teams and punish teams who fail. Thanks to Canberra being the most likely top-ranked team, the Heat lose almost any tiebreak scenario thanks to their 2-6 record against the Cavalry, while the Bandits win almost every tiebreaker thanks to their 7-4 record against the Cavs.

The ABL’s tiebreaker rules are kind of ridiculous but necessary with a tight schedule preventing one-game playoffs. The in some cases the tiebreaker ruling will punish or reward teams based on results of games that had absolutely no bearing on that specific team. There is a 0.39% chance of the below results occurring and will result in a deadlock for the first five places.

MEL	1	PER	3
CAN	0	ADE	4
BRI	3	SYD	1

Brisbane 25 Wins

Sydney 25 Wins

Canberra 24 Wins

Perth 24 Wins

Adelaide 24 Wins

Brisbane and Sydney cannot be separated at the top thanks to a tied season record of four wins each. Instead top place will be determined by who has the best record against the 3^rd place team – which cannot be determined due to a 3-way tie for 3^rd!

Taking the season records between Canberra, Perth and Adelaide we get

Canberra 9-7

Perth 9-10

Adelaide 9-10

With Canberra taking the tiebreaker for 3^rd with their superior record against Perth and Adelaide, Brisbane is deemed to be the host of the ABL Championship Series over Sydney thanks to their superior record against Canberra who had the better records against Perth and Adelaide!

Confused? We are - but we shouldn’t be. We thought the last season’s 4-way tie debacle was bad enough, but this season’s could be just as confusing. Fortunately the punished teams from last year (Brisbane & Canberra) look to gain the most in the tiebreakers this year. With the top three teams going through in a six team division, it seems that the past two years are not an aberration, and calculating hundreds of different scenarios during the final week will become some kind of late-January tradition.

Flawed system or not, expect some agonisingly close baseball over this weekend, and don’t blame the commentators when they get confused!

The Dope

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 13:05:00 +0000

As you can probably imagine, the Defensive Specialist was shrouded in performance enhancing drug speculation throughout his stellar career – it’s difficult for mere mortals to see spectacular physical tools and sustained excellence on the field and not suspect the use of performance enhancing drugs. The Defensive Specialist could only ever answer – “it’s all natural” (and then promptly raise his shirt and flex the 8 pack abdominal set up).

On the 9^th of January, the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) decided that despite a ballot stuffed with at least 8 legitimate Hall of Fame worthy candidates, no one was deserving of enshrinement in 2013. This shutout was even more flabbergasting because only 2 men on the ballot had either been caught using or admitted to using performance enhancing drugs (Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire). In fact, McGwire’s use of PED’s came at a time when they weren’t outlawed in the sport. In effect, the rest of the ballot was shut out because they were suspected of drug use: guilty until proven innocent.

Numerous writers have made great points about the Hall of Fame process (The DS particularly liked this piece) but Old Hoss Rayburn (who operates a wildly amusing twitter feed) put it best with this nugget:

“It was nice to hear from journalists who earned Pulitzers for their hard-hitting Steroid Era reporting opine on the HoF vote”.

In other words, the BBWAA are punishing ball players by not letting them into the Hall of Fame when the same writers said and did nothing to expose drug use when it was rampant.

Seven days later, we’re getting ready to learn the true (or as much of the truth that his legal and public relations teams are prepared for you to hear) story behind Lance Armstrong’s performance enhancing drug usage.

Where’s your old pal going with this? Quite simply, why are we surprised?

Top-flight athletes have been seeking a competitive edge ever since, well ever since competition was invented. The strong survive and in this day and age the strong get paid! What continually stuns the Defensive Specialist is journalists and old timers coming out and saying that the cheats shouldn’t be recognised for the achievements. Delve into the Hall of Fame a little deeper and you’ll find players who doctored baseballs and admitted to amphetamine use. Aren’t both of those performance enhancers? Cheating has taken place since Jesus was a lad!

As long as the media and the fans worship at the altar of athletes, these competitors will look for any edge to get to the top and stay there.

The Defensive Specialist would love for baseball and sport in general to be drug free, but how can we expect athletes to not push the limits when so much money is at stake? Advances in equipment and rehabilitation (Kobe Bryant having blood work completed in Germany to aid his knees!) has seen performance levels increase across most sports.

We’re also dealing with a sub section of humanity geared differently than your average Joe from a mental perspective. Everyone has heard the stories of what a maniacal competitor Michel Jordan was. He would use any advantage to beat his opponent (the DS is not suggesting MJ used PED’s) Top flight athletes are more often than not mentally predisposed to winning or beating their opponent. It comes as no shock to the Defensive Specialist that people wired this way would look to PED’s as a means to win or compete.

The Defensive Specialist is in no way condoning drug use. What the Defensive Specialist is condoning is understanding. Top flight athletes will look for advantages - not all will cheat – but all will look for ways to win and stay on top. Lets try and understand that and act less surprised and outraged when those that cheat are caught.

Corey Adamson gettin’ lucky down under: BABIP, Part 1

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 12:39:00 +0000

Despite a sizeable support function, Deep in the Hole has always been a one-man band led by the indomitable Defensive Specialist…until now. Big data is all the rage at the moment so the Defensive Specialist decided it’s about time that some of the behind the scenes number crunchers at Deep in the Hole got air time – after all, we’ll be reporting to these stat geeks at some point in time. Without further ado, the Defensive Specialist would like to welcome Tom Fee to the Deep in the Hole writing team. Tom begins his Deep in the Hole sabermetric journey by taking an interesting look at BABIP, over to you Tom.

I suck at gambling.

There’s been a trend at the Heat lately where winning games results in trips to the Casino for much fun and frivolity. What I have found is that not only do I lose my money, I lose it immediately.

Later, when sober, I realise the great connection gambling has to baseball. Sometimes that line drive you hit just happens to dart straight into an open glove. That certain triple down the right field line lands just foul, or Mike Trout is the centerfielder.

Mike Trout - where flyballs go to die

Thanks to nerds, there is a statistic that exists to judge exactly how lucky a player is on the baseball field, and it’s called BABIP – or Batting Average on Balls In Play. The rules of BABIP state that on average, if a ball is hit in play then the batter has a 30% chance of being safe and a 70% chance of being out.

In other words, to calculate the stat you calculate a batting average that ignores at bats outside the field of play such as strikeouts, walks and home runs, but include “non at-bats” that are in-play such as sacrifice flies.

BABIP = H-HR

AB - K - HR +SF

So, if a hitter puts 10 balls in play and nine of them are outs, he’s been unlucky. Similarly, a batter is lucky if five of these balls land safe.

Looking for aberrations like these might be able to explain some statistical anomalies that exist in the ABL, such as how a guy who hit .111 through 100 plate appearances this season in A ball is leading the league for average.

I am talking of one of my favourite Heat players in San Diego prospect Corey Adamson. Last week, Adamson was knocking on the door of a .400 season after struggling last year for the Fort Wayne Tin Caps. While only having two hits against the Bite this week has lowered this average somewhat, the 20 year old still leads the ABL with an average sitting at an impressive .352.

Corey Adamson

So while a decent hitter picks up a hit for 3 out of 10 balls in play, how many times out of ten does Adamson get a hit?

3.96 times out of ten.

With a BABIP of .396 this season, Adamson is getting an extra hit in every ten balls he puts in play than the average. Out of Adamson’s 160 plate appearances, 124 of these have been in play equating to an extra 12 “lucky” hits, which adds approximately 70 points to his batting average!

So now I have single handedly pish poshed all over one of my favourite player’s outstanding seasons, I’m going to explain why these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

Plenty of great players have high BABIPs and never have the come down effect. Mike Trout managed a BABIP of .383, which is massive over a 162 game season. Does this mean we should expect Trout to be a one hit wonder and fall back to grace next season? Don’t count on it. Over his four seasons in Professional Baseball, Trout’s averaged a BABIP of .358.

What it means is that some players are good enough to rig the system. Let’s run Corey Adamson through some of the ways a player might be inherently lucky, and why BABIP isn’t the best indicator for all situations:

Corey Adamson might be really fast

If you’re a faster than average runner, you’re going to get to first base safely and beat out quite a few more throws than Prince Fielder. Adamson is known for being zippy around the bases; so let’s give him the benefit of the doubt that Adamson’s elevated BABIP may be partially contributed by some extra speed to gain a few extra hits, but probably not all 12.

SPEED – 3 extra hits this season than average

The ABL isn’t the Major Leagues

Having to endure the 12 errors put up by the Heat’s defence over the four game series this weekend, I can categorically say that the defence of the ABL is not near the standards on display in the Majors.

The Major Leagues BABIP in 2012 = .297

ABL BABIP This Season = .305

Clearly the ABL leaks quite a few more hits on balls in play thanks to a significantly lower standard. This eight-point difference gives Adamson an extra hit this season against the ABL defence than if teams were putting out big leaguers.

POORER LEAGUE DEFENCE – 1 extra hit

Line Drives

It’s doesn’t take a genius to see that hitting a ball really hard is going to get through a gap more often than a roller up the middle. Therefore one of the problems with BABIP is that it doesn’t take into account that a player might be a good contact hitter and be significantly better at hitting line drives over fly balls.

In 2012 a line drive landed safe almost 70% of the time in the Majors, whereas groundballs will only get you to first safely 22% of the time. Unfortunately for batters, line drives are much less common.

In the ABL, only 7.5% of balls in play are line drives, whereas almost 50% are grounders. Adamson’s line drive percentage is much lower than the league average – so you know those four hits I conceded to Adamson above? I’ll have to take a few of them back.

LOWER LINE DRIVE RATE – 3 less hits

	FLY	LD	GB	POPS
League	35.36%	7.56%	48.84%	8.24%
Adamson	33.33%	3.45%	57.47%	5.75%

So to summarise, Adamson’s great league average is not ONLY due to a great amount of skill from a talented youngster, he’s also been riding his luck along the way.But it’s not that bad for Adamson.

The “jibe” I made about him being a .111 hitter in A ball this season should also be brought into context. With a BABIP of only .126 at the Tin Caps, Adamson suffered dearly at the hands of the baseball gods. Not only is labelling Adamson a “.111 hitter” unfair, he’s clearly showing in the ABL why he’s going to be a great player for the Padres this season.

Applying the leveller that BABIP provides, my very rough calculations for Adamson for his polarising luck in America and Australia show a bit more consistency and that at only 20 years old we still have a great prospect on our hands.

	Avg	BABIP	Estimate of Avg if he had a .300 BABIP (Dosage: 1 grain of salt after meals)
ABL	.352	.396	.280
A Ball	.111	.126	.260

And before anyone starts to think the Heat’s been getting lucky with their best hitter, take a look at these BABIPS of some of this season’s luckiest guys:

TEAM	PLAYER	BABIP
CAN	Adam Jacobs	0.556
CAN	Antonio Callaway	0.444
BRI	Hirotoshi Onaka	0.435
CAN	Ryan Stovall	0.413
MEL	Josh Davies	0.408
MEL	Elliot Biddle	0.400
PER	Corey Adamson	0.396
PER	Allan de San Miguel	0.379
SYD	James Robbins	0.378
ADE	Adam Kam	0.375
ADE	Chris Adamson	0.373
CAN	Jeremy Barnes	0.364
CAN	Jack Murphy	0.356
CAN	Kody Hightower	0.353

To come: Who’s been unlucky? Who’s the luckiest team in baseball? Who’s on first?

Identity Crisis

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 14:21:00 +0000

After a refreshing 398-day break between posts, the Defensive Specialist thought it was about time to get back on the horse. On top of that, being harassed on a daily basis by a legion of loyal fans begging/ demanding that the Defensive Specialist contribute to their intelligence by imparting baseball related knowledge started to become tiresome. So here we go.

Sitting back and being awesome at other things over the past year had its advantages:

Nobody roasts a chicken like the Defensive Specialist
The Defensive Specialist has his front lawn currently resembling the infield of the Oakland Athletics
The Defensive Specialist’s kid may in fact be baby Einstein
The Defensive Specialist has had plenty of time to sit back and observe the Australian Baseball League from afar

As Deep in the Hole devotees will attest, a well studied Defensive Specialist is a lethal weapon.

So what did your old pal come up with in all this time?

The Australian Baseball League doesn’t know what it is. Quite simply it has an identity crisis. Let the Defensive Specialist ruminate on the subject. A good starting point is a series of questions:

Should the ABL be a league filled with international talent sent Down Under by their big league clubs (American or Asian) with a view to continuing their professional development during the offseason?
Should the ABL be filled with professional Australian talent along with international professional talent?
Should the ABL be a development site for young Australian players?
Should the ABL teams be filled with local players so that fans have names they recognise to support?

In the Defensive Specialists opinion, the ABL should be a league comparable to the South American offseason leagues – stocked with high calibre professionals. In posts past the Defensive Specialist has listed the many appealing reasons why a league Down Under is a great option for Major League teams to send their prospects for extra seasoning. In an ideal world, rosters would be made up with solid professional internationals playing alongside their Australian counterparts. Non-professional players should be youngsters deemed as potential pro guys.

However, as the Defensive Specialist castes his eye around the box scores all he see is a mish mash of talent and space fillers that has no rhyme or reason to it. While the Defensive Specialist is not privy to the inner workings of each roster’s construction (in an effort to remain impartial the Defensive Specialist has turned down numerous consulting gigs), it seems amazing that in a league sponsored and sanctioned by Major League Baseball that each franchise is not aligned heavily to one or two big league clubs with a steady pipeline of talent being supplied for the offseason. Instead we have more comings and goings than a whorehouse during a US Navy visit. Clubs are hitching their hopes on pro’s who come down for half a season and vanish and or fill out their line-ups with local club ball talent.

Quick sidenote - As an up and coming prospect and then throughout a career as a superstar, the Defensive Specialist continually rolled his eyes when he heard old timers say “back in my day” in reference to what they perceived as the game or players not being as good as they believed it was way back when. This annoyed the Defensive Specialist to the point that the Defensive Specialist vowed to never say it. Except that it seems like there’s less talent running around now than there was in the DS’ day.

Which takes us back to the Defensive Specialist’s original point – the ABL doesn’t know what it is. It definitely can’t be everything to everyone – high quality baseball that appeals to the local communities because the line-ups are loaded with local names. Why? Because most states don’t have the talent to fill out a roster with enough quality to ensure high calibre baseball. Fans aren’t going to turn out to see a State League All Star team. The Defensive Specialist had heard gripes about the Canberra Cavalry being loaded with Americans – well guess what, Canberra isn’t exactly a hot bed of baseball talent and the Pony Riders are currently sitting on top of the league! Fans love winners and I bet no one in Canberra (other than the mother of some local club ball guy who cant get a run this year because a yank is playing in his spot and hitting a hundred points higher) is complaining about Team USA representing in the nations capital.

The ABL and the franchises in it need to bite the bullet and sell themselves as a premier destination for off-season baseball to US Major League teams. Load up rosters with prospects and semi prospects, entice Australian professional players to participate and ensure that the best possible baseball is being showcased.

The fan issue is difficult because name recognition in sport is important – the Defensive Specialist acknowledges that. Unfortunately baseball is a different beast in that younger players typically take longer time to develop and therefore are often recognizable as big leaguers 3 or 4 years after they left our shores. You end up with fans watching a big league game saying – “I remember that guy, he played in the ABL 3 years ago!”

Of course the other issue is pitching and having enough quality arms available to get through a full season, as professional guys must balance their workload and ensure they are ready to go for their “real” season. The Defensive Specialist may just have an answer to this but doesn’t want to blow his wad in his first post back from his sabbatical.

Anyway, the Defensive Specialist is sick of the ABL being Dean one day and Deandra the next. Decide what you want to be, get the augmentation surgery and be proud of your chosen identity!

Savin’ Me

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 09:25:00 +0000

What an interesting week in Australian baseball. We had the upstart Canberra Cavalry landing in Perth and stealing 3 out of 4 from the previously undefeated Heat. We had the Blue Sox taking steps to right their season by winning 3 out of 4 against the Bandits (with a little hand from their fans) We had Adelaide and Melbourne split even though slugger Denny Almonte dropped 12 rbi’s on the Aces across the 4 game series.

Unfortunately, all of that was over shadowed by even bigger news – Aussie big leaguer Peter Moylan getting into a Twitter stoush with the rock band Nickelback. Seems Moylan was suitably inspired by a recent Foo Fighters gig to call out Nickelback:

"Note to @nickelback please attend a @foofighters concert. That's how's it should be done chad,"

Unfortunately for Moylan, Nickelback fired back and fired back in style!

"@PeterMoylan Foos are killer for sure. We're doing just fine too thanks. ? for you Pete, is watching Kimbrel better from the bench or on TV?"

Zing!

Nickelback 1, Moylan 0

Anyway, enough injured relief pitchers and Canadian soft rock bands; lets get back to the ABL.

Heat V Cavalry

The Defensive Specialist suggested in a recent post that the Heat’s recent foibles in Asia could lead to a Cavalry upset. Unfortunately your old pal also predicted that the winless trip abroad would fire the Heat up and lead to a demolition of the Canberra outfit… Canberra were having none of that, shutting down the Heat offensively in the first 3 games and having their way with the Heat pitching staff to the tune of 25 runs in the first 3 games.

Blue Sox V Bandits

Keen meteorologists will tell you that Sydney is currently in the midst of the coldest December in recent memory. As a result, the Blue Sox faced the proposition of playing the Bandits in wet and wild conditions. While the inclement weather threatened the contest across the weekend it also allowed the Blue Sox to expand their roster to 145 as the local fans came out onto the field to assist pulling the field tarp across the diamond. In more serious news, the weekend saw the Blue Sox take steps towards respectability by adding 4 games to the win column. The key additions of Mitch Denning, Joe Hage and Brandon Barnes paid dividends immediately and manager Kevin Boles will hope and pray this newfound offense can be sustained.

Bite V Aces

Adelaide will be less than impressed after splitting a home series with the last placed Melbourne team although centerfielder Denny Almonte definitely gave the home fans something to talk about, exploding for 12 rbi’s across the series The highlight was obviously game 2 when he hit a grand slam, mixed in an RBI single and them ended the game with a walk off 3 run blast. That’s the sort of game you hang your hat on!

Denny Almonte enjoying a big series

After 5 years of continued success and prosperity in Sydney, the Defensive Specialist is pleased to announce that the entire Deep in the Hole operation will be relocating to Western Australia as of next week. While the logistics of moving a franchise are daunting, the Defensive Specialist is confident that a seamless transition can be made. The Defensive Specialist has a a single Blue Sox season membership available to anyone who’s interested, simply drop the Defensive Specialist an email with your mailing address and it’ll be sent through at no cost – well actually there will be a cost, you’ll likely be accosted by autograph hounds who’ll mistake you for Australia’s preeminent baseball blogger – don’t worry, you’ll grow to love it!

Stinky Tofu and Baseball – The Asian Series

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 10:34:00 +0000

With no baseball taking place in the Emerald City this weekend, the Defensive Specialist was forced to camp out in front of the Deep in the Hole Super Computer with a bowl of Stinky Tofu to watch the Perth Heat take part in the Asian Baseball Series. Aside from the fact the commentary was in Taiwanese, it was a surprisingly pleasant experience. The camera work was professional, the graphics were solid and best of all there was a message board in real time next to the screen which allowed the Defensive Specialist to road test all of the gags you’ll read throughout this post.

(Editors note: the message board was non-English speaking)

The Asian Series came at an interesting time for the Heat – smack bang as they’ve reeled off 11 consecutive wins and shaped as the form team of the competition. While the Defensive Specialist is sure Heat Manager Brooke Knight would have liked to stay downunder to continue punishing the local teams, the Asian Series did present an opportune time to showcase the Australian Baseball League and to measure up against Asia Pacific’s best teams.

Unfortunately the Asian holiday didn’t run to script as the Heat dropped all 3 of their games. Other than a blow out late in game 1, the contests remained fairly close and the WA lads will take some comfort out of knowing that they can compete at that level. What the series did do was raise a couple of questions that your old pal has some thoughts on:

1) How will losing 3 games affect the Heat when they get back to business in the ABL?

Interesting question and one that the Defensive Specialist is glad he asked himself. Momentum is a HUGE thing in baseball and the Heat had a whole lot of it after they finished boat racing the Blue Sox in Sydney last week. The vast majority of the offensive line up was hotter than hell fire and the pitching staff had looked sharp throughout the series. The jaunt to Asia probably didn’t come at the best time and may have 1 of 2 results when the Heat return to action

A) The 3 losses will shake the Heat’s confidence and Canberra will ride into town to steal a couple of ballgames from the Heat on their home turf;

B) The Heat will return home, somewhat embarrassed after dropping all three games and drop a severe beat down on the Cavalry in revenge.

You often hear teams that are running off a ridiculous winning streak state that the first loss was almost necessary. That’s an easy thing to say immediately after an L but when you think about it, it does make some sense. Winning multiple games in a row can often allow complacency to creep in and see teams going through the motions. The advantage the Heat has is that the games they’ve lost mean nothing (other than a blow to the Australian baseball psyche). The net result may be that the Heat evaluate some of their weaknesses, make the necessary adjustments and get back on the horse this weekend (and yes that was a clever metaphor about the Heat pumping the Cavalry).

2) What did the 3 losses expose in the Perth Heat?

Defense, defense, defense

The Heat may swing it with the best of them but their defense hurt them at almost every turn. 9 errors in 3 games is just not going to get it done when you’re playing a quality opponent and with a pitching staff that relies on command and control rather than brute force, additional outs are not so easily overcome with the strike out.

Mitch Graham's hitting is outperforming his defense

While shortstop Mitch Graham has been a revelation at the plate early in the season (.435 AVG, 4 HR, 16 RBIs, 10 runs), his unreliability in the field (6 errors on the season, 2 during the Asian Series) at a premium position is something that the team cannot afford. Manager Knight obviously saw about as much as he could stomach as Graham finished out the Asian Series at second with Mychal Givens taking over at short. Moving forward second base may be a much better fit for Graham (assuming Givens can handle short) but this poses a problem with Luke Hughes returning eventually. If Graham continues to hit, it’s a nice problem to have!

3) Was the Heat pitching staff exposed in Taiwan?

Simply – No

As stated above, the Heat doesn’t have a staff full of guys who blow 94mph but what they do have is a bunch of guys who can pitch. By pitch the Defensive Specialist means they throw strikes, work quickly and limit the damage. Both Ben Moore and Trevor Caughey yielded only 1 earned run (unearned runs were a different story) and while Daniel Schmidt was a little less effective than normal he only gave up 3 unearned. The Heat bullpen could really do with a power arm or two because the plethora of finesse guys has a tendency to all blend into one meaning that hitters can sit on a certain speed however the return or Brendan Wise at some stage definitely boosts the Heat pen. At the end of the day, the Heat proved last year that the control guys who ate up innings were the way to the Championship so why deviate from a proven formula?

Ben Moore provided another solid outing

No matter the result, the Asian Series is a great opportunity to showcase baseball and specifically the ABL. While it would have been great to win a couple of ball games, the break from regular competition could be the revitalizing shot the Heat need…… or it could completely derail their season. We’ll soon see.

Laser Show

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 09:47:00 +0000

As you could probably tell from the absolute lack of activity here at Deep in the Hole, the Defensive Specialist has been suffering from a serious motivational issue. When you’ve been at the top of your game for a countless number of years, it’s tough to keep finding challenges to spur you on. If anything was going to get your old pal back behind the keyboard, it was a visit to Sydney by the league champs – the Perth Heat.

The Defensive Specialist has been hearing the hype regarding the offensive juggernaut brewing over in the West so this was a chance to get a look first hand, especially since they’d be squaring off against the usually pitching rich Sydney Blue Sox. The Defensive Specialist definitely got to see the Perth boys roll the pole as they exploded in game 1 of the Saturday double header for 24 hits, and then backed it up in the Sunday session with another lazy 20 knocks. Instead of a comprehensive review, the Defensive Specialist is going to keep it fresh and real with a number of key insights:

Key Insight 1

There wasn’t a great deal happening during the offseason regarding the ABL – well unless you count fraudulent player movements as interesting, but one thing that caught the Defensive Specialist’s attention was the news that the Heat had snagged last year’s MVP Jamie McOwen. Either McOwen was a clubhouse cancer with a body odour problem or the Heat paid a king’s ransom to get him – how else could you explain the Bite allowing him to move? Turns out McOwen is a good dude who paid his own way down under just so he could keep playing during his off season. It’s a good thing table setting lead off hitters grow on trees……. The Defensive Specialist was left scratching his head as to what the Adelaide brains trust was thinking especially as McOwen scored 8 runs in 4 games. Rumour has it they had no spots available with a new set of imports being sent down, so McOwen was forced to shop himself around and foot the bill.

Have MVP award will travel

Key Insight 2

After handing out a pasting last year regarding some of the uniforms, it was great to see Major League Baseball take the Defensive Specialist’s sartorial advice and splurge on some new sets. The Blue Sox looked virginal in their all white home uni’s and the new red road jerseys the Heat were sporting looked pretty damn good!

The virginal Blue Sox

The Heat rocking the red

Key Insight 3

Regular readers will recall the Defensive Specialist lamenting the lack of offensive firepower from the Sydney line up last year. In a busy off season they went out and added…..1 bat. Granted, Mitch Dening has not returned to active duty but his bat alone is not going to dig the Blue Sox out of the offensive quagmire they currently reside in. There was not a single Blue Sox player who could have cracked the Heat line up over the course of the weekend. There – the Defensive Specialist said it!

While the Defensive Specialist is all for allowing the Aussies to play, surely Sydney could find a big league club prepared to send down at least a few prospects to beef up their line-up? With every club adding international talent, it’s baffling to see Sydney stick with locals who don’t necessarily match up to the level of talent on offer from other teams.

Key Insight 4

Speaking of the Heat line up, it’s stacked. The team bangs 1 through 9 especially with the addition of Brenden Webb who arrived just in time to play in game 1 of the series. In fact Webb was lucky to play at all since no one was at the airport to pick him up from the US. A charming smile enabled him access to a hire care computer terminal where he used the internet to locate the ABL phone number and managed to make contact with someone who then arranged a pick up - after a 3 hour wait.

To make matters worse for opposing ball clubs, Luke Hughes is still to play meaning that the Heat are able to add a major weapon to an already potent line up. It will be interesting to see how manager Brooke Knight manages his men with so many bats at his disposal.

Key Insight 5

The Blue Sox have made some reasonably major changes to their field with the addition of primo seating directly behind home plate and down the foul lines. The new seats are a really nice addition that allows fans to get much closer to the action and the Blue Sox to expand their fan base with additional vantage points. Of course if the Sox continue to get swept on their home turf, they may need to take them out quick smart because there will be a lot of spare seats.

Key Insight 6

With last year’s no-hitting ace David Welch no longer on the roster and stalwart Chris Oxspring working out of the pen, the Sydney rotation is currently thinner than rice paper. The Heat essentially took batting practice in games 2 and 4, lacing balls all over the yard and taking advantage of a series of arms lacking velocity and control (not a good combination). A rotation headed by Oxspring and Wayne Lundgren will allow the Blue Sox to be competitive but they need another big arm if they hope to get through the season in any sort of winning form.

Key Insight 7

The Heat are trying something unique with their imports this season. As the Defensive Specialist discussed last year, having pro arms can be more troubling than it is useful with pitchers on strict inning counts and often not available come playoffs. The Heat have obviously read the Deep in the Hole SWOT analysis and this year invested their import allotment towards the offensive side of the game. With 5 bats in the line up they are set to score a plethora of runs. The approach to pitching is right out of the Defensive Specialist playbook – find a bunch of solid non pro arms and ride them to the play offs. The Heat managed to bring back Trevor Caughey and Matt Zachary to play for them and then work their relationships with local clubs to borrow the likes of Jacob Clem and Geoff Brown. When you add these pitchers to local arms like Daniel Schmidt and Warwick Saupold you have a bunch of solid inning eaters that are available all year and who keep their team in the contest.

All in all it was an interesting series to attend, mainly to see the stacked Heat line-up go to work. The old adage goes “good pitching beats good hitting” but the Defensive Specialist is prepared to suggest that there may not be enough pitching in this league to stop the Heat bats in a 3 game finals series.

The Rumour Mill

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 09:11:00 +0000

The hustle and bustle of living a double life is absolutely impacting the Defensive Specialist’s ability to provide content – who’d have thought being a highly successfully business man would take up so much time? Anyway, a couple of interesting rumours have come to the Defensive Specialist’s attention that may make for interesting discussion.

Despite a long relationship with the Baltimore Orioles, it appears that the talent pipeline has been severed and the Perth Heat will be looking for a new source of imports. This will be a disappointment to the fan base who have enjoyed watching high level talent come through Perth via the Oriole organization. The team suffers as they relied heavily on the output generated by Widlansky, Curry and Welty. Many will speculate that Don Kyle’s move back to the corporate sector was the trigger for the relationship breakdown but the Defensive Specialist was informed ‘off the record’ that the ABL requested more funding from the Orioles (likely to assist with housing and supporting the players) and the Orioles decided to spend their money elsewhere. Whatever the reason it’s a huge blow to the reigning champions who’ll either have to find another source of professional talent or rely on an array of former pro’s to fill the gaps.
Word on the street is that the Sydney Blue Sox will be appointing a new manager for the upcoming season. The Defensive Specialist is unsure as to why Glenn Williams is not continuing but the replacement manager is likely to be Kevin Boles who’s currently managing the Portland Sea Dogs – the Double A affiliate of the Boston Red Sox. The upside to such a move for the Blue Sox and their fans is greater access to Red Sox affiliated professionals who may aid in boosting last seasons anemic offense.

The Defensive Specialist should reiterate that these nuggets come from a series of networks that have no true link to either franchise so make sure you have ample water available to assist with the ingestion of the grain of salt.

Is More Less?

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 11:43:00 +0000

After making the foolish promise to up the output from a blogging perspective, the Defensive Specialist has been pacing back and forth in front of the Deep in the Hole super computer desperately trying to come up with decent ideas to waffle on about. Mired in the dead of winter is not helping the creative juices flow and the Defensive Specialist fights a daily battle against the urge to comfort eat. Fortunately Tuesday saw a breakthrough with the genius idea to talk about the 2011/2012 schedule!

Before you click off the page in disgust, remember the Defensive Specialist also committed to shorter posts (in order to avoid repetitive strain injury after a lengthy lay off). So even if it’s a crappy topic, you’ll only have to endure 500-750 words on the matter as opposed to the usual 1500-2000. That’s a win win right?

The biggest change from last season is the addition of 6 more games, increasing from 40 games (20 home / 20 away) to 46 (23 home / 23 away). Regular readers of this fine, upstanding site will know that the Defensive Specialist has long championed the idea of playing more games. For those disinclined to read through the archives to find these well-written gems and in order to pad the word count, let your old pal quickly rehash the topic.

If Major League Baseball wants to run an offseason league that’s taken seriously by its franchises then it has to offer more games. The reason? MLB teams who want their prospects to play offseason baseball are looking for 3 things: 1) quality competition, 2) quality standard of living and environment and 3) volume. We all know that you get better at baseball by playing it a lot (hence the 162 game MLB schedule). Teams want to get games into their prospects against solid competition. The more games they play (particularly offensive players who don’t need to rest their arms as pitchers do), the greater the benefit. There is a huge advantage to Australian professional players as well as they now have a legitimate offseason league to continue their development in. Think back a couple of years when an Australian kid’s offseason program included club ball and a week long Claxton Shield tournament. Now compare that to a 46 game season with games running 5 days a week!

So this new schedule is a good thing right?

Yes and no.

Obviously from a players perspective it’s a great thing. As outlined above, playing every day is only going to ratchet up the development time and skills of all players involved. It’s going to expose Australian youngsters to good baseball and allow our professional players to hone their talents. From an imports perspective, they get to continue their growth in Australia during summer while drinking better beer.

So what’s the downside you ask? Well there are a couple of issues the Defensive Specialist sees:

Firstly, playing more games actually impacts the ability of both non-professionals and professionals to hold down regular jobs. We all know that minor leaguers are not paid any sort of princely sum and require off-season work to survive. We also had a decent level of non-professionals / amateurs taking part in the league last year who work first and play baseball second. With games now taking place on Wednesdays, players are effectively only able to work 2 days per week (when on the road). There aren’t many gigs around that A) support working 2 days per week and B) pay enough. What we’re likely to see is the number of mature non-professionals / amateurs decline and an increase in younger players (bankrolled by mum and dad!) and non-professional imports (sponsored by local clubs).
The effect of extended series on crowd support. When contacted by the Sydney Blue Sox to continue membership, one of the selling points to re-up was the addition of games. “Instead of 4 games per series, you get 5!!” went the spiel. That looks good on paper until you consider the thought of attending 5 games a week from Wednesday to Sunday. In fact attending that many games in a week would lead to divorce papers, which wouldn’t look so good. Obviously most people wont be attending all 5 games in a series unless they have a child or loved one playing so the effect on crowd numbers will be interesting to study. Will more games allow fans greater accessibility and options or lead to apathy? You know what they say -increasing supply decreases demand.
From a revenue perspective, franchises will be expected to give fans and supporters a great show no matter the day of the week. You’d expect numbers to suffer on Wednesday and Thursday nights which means that the bottom line may hurt as teams aren’t pulling $$$ from concessions, alcohol, parking and the gate. Teams can’t afford to cut back on the bells and whistles on Wednesday and Thursday because they cant afford to give fans a reason (other than the night of the week) to not show up.

Another interesting scheduling curiosity to note is the ABL continuing with the New Years Eve / Day scheduling. The Defensive Specialist can think of nothing better than bringing in a new year watching baseball. Unfortunately not all family and friends may agree. Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne are the teams scheduled to host the games over the New Year period, which is also interesting. A case can definitely be made for Adelaide who have a rapid fan base that are likely to turn out in droves (plus there’s bugger all else to do in Adelaide anyway). Both Melbourne and Brisbane had sketchy attendance numbers last season so when you couple that fact with a tough date are they asking for trouble (or did they have a huge offseason membership drive that influenced the scheduling?)? Surely teams with stronger attendance figures (Canberra and Perth) would have been better choices to host on these dates as they have a better chance to at least pull a crowd.

The Defensive Specialist has blown out his target of 500-750 words and is starting to cramp up. At the end of the day, more baseball games is a good thing for the players involved and for the perception of the league. It’s the hard to measure things that bare watching as the season progresses.

102 Days

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sun, 17 Jul 2011 11:08:00 +0000

102 Days....

That’s how long your old pal has been off the interweb much to the chagrin of the loyal readership. That’s more time off than someone on long service leave! There’s a plethora of conspiracy theories as to why the Defensive Specialist has been absent floating around so this is probably the best forum to debunk a number of them:

No – the Defensive Specialist was not leading Seal Team 6 in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden.

No – the Defensive Specialist was not busy creating the wedding gown for Kate Middleton.

No – the Defensive Specialist was not working with the Australian Prime Minister to draft the new carbon tax.

In all honesty, the Defensive Specialist was side tracked by a 10-month-old baby who decided that she flat out did not enjoy sleeping. Long time readers probably just regurgitated their morning lattes hearing the news that one of the games sharpest minds was waylaid by an infant. In response to your snort, the Defensive Specialist offers this statement:

“There is a reason why sleep deprivation is used as torture”

Anyway with the sleep issues now in the past, the Defensive Specialist thought it was time to ease himself back into the drivers seat and start pumping out some content. Today, lets take a look at a couple of Aussies in the big leagues.

Luke Hughes

Back when the Defensive Specialist used to write more, you may remember a post outlining how tough Hughes plight was going to be playing the role of utility man. Inconsistent at bats makes keeping ones swing fine-tuned pretty tough to do. Fortunately Hughes managed to pick up some regular playing time before being demoted back to AAA. The stint in the minors lasted briefly and Hughes was back in the show playing predominantly at first base but also filling in around the infield. The thing that really stood out in the early days of Hughes season was his steadfast desire to get on the fastball ASAP (and who can blame him, it beats the hell out of flailing against hellacious breaking stuff). The downside to this approach is that you don’t really give yourself much of a chance to walk resulting in a paltry on base percentage. While Hughes is not being confused with Rickey Henderson of late (second all time base on balls), the number of pitches he is seeing each at bat is increasing which means he’s either developing more of a discerning eye or his manager has gone all junior baseball on him and told him not to swing until he has a strike!

Josh Spence

Spence was the second person from the 2010 MLB draft called to the big leagues, which is pretty damn impressive when you consider the feat. Making things more interesting is that he doesn’t fit the mould of a “quick to the big leagues” reliever. Instead of a polished power arm, Spence comes at hitters from numerous arm angles with an array of breaking balls and a reliance on touch, feel and command. In 12 appearances Spence has allowed a solitary run (a big fly to Andre Either of the Dodgers) while punching out 7. It seems he’ll play the role of LOOGY (lefty one out guy) meaning that he’ll take on the opposition’s big lefty bats late in the game. The Defensive Specialist is intrigued to see if Spence can survive as a reliever without power stuff at the big league level.

Before the Defensive Specialist develops RSI from all this typing, it’s important to make you aware of an outstanding show featuring the San Francisco Giants currently playing in the US. Called “The Franchise” it chronicles the Giants trials and tribulations during the 2011 season. So far the Defensive Specialist has only been able to find the show on YouTube. Check it out:

Send in the S.W.O.T Team (Part 4)

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 11:48:00 +0000

Well the Luke Hughes watch fizzled out from about the time the Defensive Specialist hit the “post” button on the last offering. You’re old pal isn’t suggesting that he put the kybosh on Luke’s push to make the Twins big league roster but if you reflect back on the Defensive Specialist’s efforts to pick winners and forecast the future you’d see a trail of despair and destruction. The good news is that Hughes is one twanged hamstring away from a call up to the Big Leagues!

Today’s post is the final instalment of the SWOT analysis the Defensive Specialist has been working on for what seems like the past 8 weeks. The topic for consideration on this occasion is the threats to the growth and success of the ABL. The Defensive Specialist isn’t one to typically dedicate a post to anyone, but today seemed an appropriate time to recognise arguably the most unpopular man in Australian baseball – Matt Tolbert, the guy who beat out Hughes. Here’s to you Matt!

Arguably the biggest threat to the success of the ABL is a lack of fan support. Without punters coming through the turnstiles, the league will never be self-sustaining and eventually Major League baseball will grow disgruntled, cutting the cheques and severing the purse strings. Individual teams and league administrators have to build on year 1 attendance figures and drive customers through the gates with creative marketing and solid on-field entertainment. MLB cannot and will not play the role of sugar daddy forever so it’s imperative that teams set up solid fan bases and generate consistent revenue streams to ensure long-term viability.

Recently the Defensive Specialist received a friendly email from Sydney Blue Sox administrators informing him that foundation members had to re-up their memberships before April 30 if they wished to maintain their existing seats. The reason for the push so early in the year? Apparently demand for memberships is so high that there’s a chance all seating will be taken up by members in 2011 / 2012. While the Defensive Specialist is sceptical of the demand for memberships after seeing a multitude of empty seats during the playoffs, it does pose an interesting question: “Is it a good thing to use up all seating on members?”

On one hand the franchise is guaranteed revenue (even if the total amount is less than what would be generated if seats were sold to casual fans) for the season which allows efficient and accurate budgeting and franchise management from a financial perspective – you have a fixed revenue stream from the outset of the season even if people don’t show up to the game. On the other hand, you are denying the casual fan who shows up for a game a premium experience because they’re likely to land a seat in a less than optimal position down one of the baselines (for those unaware, the Blacktown Olympic facility does not have seating down the foul lines). Would this experience result in them not returning?

Personally the Defensive Specialist would take the guaranteed full house and a thriving membership book any day of the week!

While expansion is most definitely an opportunity for the ABL, it also poses a serious threat. The thought of taking the game to different markets (NZ, regional Australia) is exciting but also fraught with trouble. While baseball fans would love to double the numbers of teams in the competition, serious questions have to be asked first:

Can the location support the team from a fan and spectator perspective?
Will local sponsors get on board?
Can the Australian pool of talent support more teams?

Obviously the first 2 points relate to the financial wellbeing of clubs. The last point is just as salient as the availability of quality Australian players is finite and if clubs cannot field competitive teams then fans and sponsors will not show up.

Adding additional teams also increases cost – travel and accommodation being the most significant. While it sounds great in theory to have a team in New Zealand, the cost of getting a team there from Perth is substantial (mind you the strength of the Australian dollar reduces accommodation expenses!). The same can be said for having teams in Asia or tougher to reach Australian locations. Careful consideration has to be given to a multitude of factors before any new franchise can be added.

While every existing team was able to secure their own home, questions have to be raised over the quality and location of some of them. Quality plays a role not only in fan experience but also in determining whether or not MLB teams will send down their better prospects. The higher quality prospects we have in Australia, the better the standard of the game and the more fans that will be drawn. There is no way that a Major League team would look at the Melbourne Showground sandpit and sign off on one of their upper echelon prospects playing on it – there is simply too much to risk health wise.

Location is surely a factor in attendance. In places like Western Australia and NSW the facilities are located some distance from the CBD, which works for part of the general public, but add in lack of public transport and it causes problems for the remainder. Crowd numbers may be strong at the moment, but location may impact each franchise’s ability to increase these figures.

While it was important to have a MLB representative heading up the new ABL in year 1, eventually the lack of Australian leadership may prove to be detrimental. It is yet to be proven that an Australian can effectively administrator a competition like the ABL. At some stage Major League Baseball is going to want to take the training wheels off and see if this thing can walk on its own. While the jury is out on the management style of the current regime, the fact remains that the league got off the ground and ran successfully in its first year. Moving forward and to be truly self-sustaining, Australians need to step up in to management roles and administer the league in a profitable manner and the biggest threat is that they’re not being groomed and prepared to do so.

If you see any potential threats that the Defensive Specialist may have missed, add them in the comments section below.

Send in the S.W.O.T Team (Part 3)

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 11:41:00 +0000

Apologies for the lack of activity last week – the rigours of travel and a Luke Hughes vigil consumed the Defensive Specialist’s time and prevented any form of creative output. Hughes is obviously getting a lot of press at the moment with his scorching hot Spring Training (second in homeruns and RBI’s) but the Defensive Specialist wanted to spare a paragraph or two to discuss his plight. For those of you unaware, Hughes is currently in a battle to win the utility infielder role with the Minnesota Twins. His plight seems to resonate with the Australian baseball community because we’ve not seen a position player earn a roster spot out of Spring Training for some time and because it would be totally cool to have an Aussie hitter on a big league roster with some regularity!

Ideally what you’re looking for in a utility guy is someone who plays multiple positions (to cover for injury and provide a rest to the regulars) and who can swing it a little. While his manager indicated that he’d never be a gold glover, he’s given Hughes time at second, third, leftfield, first base and short stop to get a real look. The knock against him is that he doesn’t profile as a guy who could handle shortstop (primarily due to a lack of range and arm) but that may be purely academic as the Twins have other options to mitigate that problem. If you scan big league rosters, the back up infielder is generally an “all field, no hit” type of player so Hughes flies in the face of this by being more offensively minded which provides another weapon to his skipper.

Baseball fans will know all of the above so as per usual, the Defensive Specialist wants to take things a little deeper by discussing just how tough it is to play the role of a bench guy. If you look at Hughes’ numbers this spring, you’ll see that he is at the top end of at bats on the Twins. This indicates that he’s getting plenty of game time and the repetitions necessary to keep his bat going. And herein lies the rub – as a bench guy, he may only play 2-3 times per week meaning that it will be tougher to find a rhythm and stay in tune with his swing. No measure of batting practice makes up for the daily live pitching that regulars see. If Hughes takes an 0-4 in AAA, he’s back in the line-up the next day ready to make amends. At the major league level, he may sit on that 0-4 for a couple of days before he gets a chance to get back out there which makes it very difficult to work out the kinks and maintain any semblance of timing.

The Defensive Specialist doesn’t raise this point to poo poo his effort – the fact is, being a bench guy is a tough job that requires a special sort of resilience to be ready when the manager pencils your name in. Of course, the 400k+ salary makes swallowing that pill a little easier!

All right, lets get back on track and continue the in-depth SWOT analysis that your old pal has been cooking for a few weeks now. Today’s instalment is probably the Defensive Specialist’s favourite section – Opportunities. In this component, its time to look at the avenues the ABL could take to improve and grow the competition moving forward.

The Defensive Specialist has mentioned it repeatedly but it bears stating again – television coverage. Telecasting the Grand Final series and doing it well highlighted the opportunity to take the game to a wider audience if done properly. As much as it pains the Defensive Specialist to say it, its pretty obvious that trying to broadcast every game would be financially ruinous, but strategically showing big games, key matchups or final series is definitely a way to market the competition. The Defensive Specialist has spent plenty of time thinking about the best format to showcase the game on TV and surely it has to be a “game of the week” and then a highlights type show that is lighter on content but higher on razzle dazzle. The benefit of doing something like this is that it reduces the cost (a game of the week requires only one crew and on air talent), which then allows a more polished production. The ultimate goal of this strategy is to capture the casual observer and keep baseball front of mind for the kids who the ABL desperately need to draw into the game.

Expansion. On one of the Defensive Specialist’s many jaunts to New Zealand over the past 6 months there was a back page news story on softball, which referred to Baseball New Zealand’s quest to have a team in the ABL. With 6 teams currently in play in Australia’s largest markets there is a definite opportunity to expand into other regions such as New Zealand, Asia and regional Australia. Logical expansion destinations would include northern NSW and New Zealand (although that would be a killer road trip from Perth). Asia is probably the biggest jewel in the expansion crown due to the passion incited by baseball in that region and the money that sponsorship and crowds could generate.

Playing more games is a definite opportunity for the ABL, and arguably it’s the lack of games that currently prevents some of the better MLB professionals being sent down under to get their offseason works in. If the ABL could present 5-6 games per week and effectively recreate a professional environment (in terms of volume of games) then there is significant value to prospects participating in the competition. Obviously there is significant cost and effort involved in staging that many games per week for each team as well as travel and accommodation expenses but the opportunity to be a premier offseason league is not too far off. The benefit of having higher profile prospects taking part is that they bring with them “higher ups” from their respective clubs, which has the carry on effect of exposing more Australians to the eyes of key decision makers.

With year one under the belt and reasonably solid crowd numbers in play around Australia, there is a definite opportunity to ramp up the marketing and suck more and more kids into the sport. Baseball saw fantastic growth in the halcyon days of the first ABL with teeball seeing robust participation rates. Now is the time to leverage the ABL by pumping up the profiles of local talent, promoting our professionals and showcasing Australian Major League players to junior competitions. It’s obviously tough promoting the ABL when the season runs through the school holidays and the offseason (the time when school visits and camps would normally be conducted) sees our talent ship off to their US seasons, but nonetheless, the time is right to promote the game hard and jack up the number of kids taking part.

The carry on effect from this marketing is a growth in crowd numbers. Increased promotion to children as well as a television presence will surely increase the number of punters pushing through the turnstiles. More fans in the stands equals greater club profitability, which allows teams to invest both on and off the field and improve the product.

Leverage the relationship with Major League Baseball and run more sanctioned events like camps and coaching seminars. Flying out a couple of MLB stars, running educational coaching sessions or conducting skills camps is only going to benefit the game. The ABL was successful in using mostly home grown coaching staffs but how much access does the average coach have to their skills and expertise? Imagine having an MLB hitting or pitching coach run a session on their specific skill set and the value it would bring to the Australian baseball community? It’s these big ticket names that will draw more and more people to the ball park and inspire kids, coaches and parents to be involved in the game.

The Defensive Specialist promises to come back with the 4^th instalment in a more timely fashion – unless of course Luke Hughes lands himself a starting gig, then all bets are off. As usual, if the Defensive Specialist has missed any opportunities, hit the comments section below.

Send in the S.W.O.T Team (Part 2)

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 10:37:00 +0000

If you’re just tuning in you’ve landed smack bang in the middle of a complex SWOT analysis designed to peer deep inside the ABL after its inaugural season. Before you scramble to click off the page, today the Defensive Specialist is covering “weaknesses” which generally seems to hold people’s attention more than any other part of the breakdown. As with any start up venture, there are ups and downs – before you’re old pal dives into the downs, a couple of strengths were sent in by reader Wagga Mick that the Defensive Specialist kicked himself for missing:

Internet streaming – the ABL did a great job of bringing real time scores and plays to baseball fans around the country through their own and each club’s website.
Using the MLB website format as a platform for local teams’ sites. The upgrade happened overnight and absolutely took the accessibility and professionalism to another level (although content was sometimes lacking but this can be attributed to lack of resources available to produce content).

All right, lets roll up the sleeves and get into the juicy stuff…

WEAKNESSES

Although another anonymous reader suggested that the marketing was good, the Defensive Specialist has to disagree. Readers only need cast their mind back to mid 2010 when baseball fans were scrambling for information about the ABL and the Defensive Specialist was receiving thankyou emails for speculating on team names. Baseball people were genuinely excited and the ABL could have played on that by strategically and creatively dripfeeding information. It’s undeniable that teams absolutely made the best of a poor situation in terms of promoting themselves but it’s also undeniable that overall publicity and marketing was probably not where it should have been. Having said that, it’s worth considering who the ABL was trying to market to. If the first year goal was to get the baseball community buzzing, then it’s fair to say that was achieved. If the goal was to draw in the uninitiated then the view would be significantly different. The Defensive Specialist is surmising here that the year 1 goal was to get baseball people on board and then leverage that group to attract feeder groups like teeball, softball etc. Once you have a solid fan base then you can expand to a broader market and hope that Joe Public shows some interest and gets hooked on the product, but until you have the baseball community involved there’s no point even bothering for the uninitiated (either way, you’re old pal has just invented a sweet excuse for the ABL if ever questioned on publicity “yeah, our first year goal was to get baseball people….”)

The powerbrokers at ABL HQ have to have concerns about attendance in a number of key states. The Blue Sox failed to sell out numerous games in a final series and attendance appeared to be an issue in Melbourne throughout the season. While franchises like Canberra and Adelaide enjoyed solid numbers and enthusiastic crowds, the league will never be considered sustainable until fan support is consistently high across the board. The only ways for teams to break even is to have sponsors on board and punters streaming through the gates… or a bunch of poker machines. With the two largest markets having splotchy attendance figures, the viability of the league has to be questioned. Speaking as a season ticket holder, the Defensive Specialist can attest to the quality of the product both on and off the field as well as the affordability of the event in Sydney – so there must be other factors keeping fans away (location, brand, venue etc) that have to be addressed.

(File this one under minor weakness) The Defensive Specialist lives by numerous credos, none more important than: “the body is a temple”. So you can imagine the Defensive Specialist’s dismay when the healthiest options on a ballpark menu were green apples and bottled water. Seriously, the Defensive Specialist took to packing a picnic dinner so as to avoid greasy burgers, chips and myocardial infarctions. Obviously catering to everyone’s dietary tastes is not the easiest and cheapest thing to achieve but surely you’re old pal isn’t the only person who doesn’t have the tastes of the morbidly obese? Why kill the fans you’re attracting to games?

Professionals on the roster. HOLD UP!!!! Ok, so professional hitters are fantastic to have on your ballclub, it’s the pitchers that seem to cause a problem. Let the Defensive Specialist explain. Professional arms are typically on a fairly strict innings restriction, meaning that by the last month of the season their workloads are being reduced or they’re being shut down. This is all well and good if you’re team isn’t going to make the playoffs, but if the ABL Championship is a goal then not having your best arms available is definitely detrimental. We saw the Perth Heat win the flag on the backs of 2 former pros who were neither restricted by pitch counts nor inning restrictions. There isn’t really any way around this issue unless you play it like the Bite did with Brandon Maurer which was to start him out with a small workload and gradually build him to a 5 inning starter. Fortunately for the Bite they mashed early in the season and had some decent arms to cover the load. So how do you fix it? The Defensive Specialist uncharacteristically doesn’t have a clear-cut answer. If a team brings out an import they are here to get their work in and will do so under instruction from the parent team. Australian pro’s are governed by the same rules so you cant even rely on home-grown talent to fill the innings.

Which leads us to the next weakness – imports being pulled from local competitions. Teams will evaluate how the Heat won the championship and see that they relied heavily on imports that came from the local leagues to fill out their roster and play key roles during the finals campaign. While its safe to assume that local teams consented to their imports being made available (its important to remember that the vast majority of local imports are flown out and supported at the clubs’ expense), there may come a point when local teams refuse participation. What we saw with the Heat is that former pro’s are durable, proficient, reliable and a huge asset. Expect franchises to explore this resource in greater detail next year.

The number of games played across the course of the year (40 plus finals) was a step up from the Claxton Shield in years past but may actually be counterintuitive to attracting the very best professional prospects to our shores. As baseball fans know, baseball is a sport best played on a daily basis, which means that until the ABL can offer more than 4 games per week, the best talent will elect to play elsewhere. The problem we face in Australia is A) the cost of teams playing 6 out of 7 days per week (travel, accommodation, meals etc) and B) getting crowds to midweek games. If teams could count on solid attendance mid week then the idea of a 60 game season becomes more palatable although it severely impacts the availability of non-professional players who still have to pay their bills by working regular jobs.

Finally, a lack of television exposure is definitely a weakness for a professional league trying to get a footing in a busy sports calendar. The Defensive Specialist has discussed on a number of occasions ways that the game could be promoted without televising entire series or multiple games per week (featured game of the week and a highlight show as examples) and while it is unrealistic to expect a huge television presence, it is critical in capturing non-baseball people. The impressive ads that hit the screens before the season commenced really didn’t drive people anywhere and this is where some television presence would have filled the void and allowed those not familiar with baseball to turn.

As per usual, the Defensive Specialist is interested in hearing the readers thoughts on perceived weaknesses from year 1 of the ABL. Part 3 of the SWOT analysis will cover Opportunities – stay tuned.

Send in the S.W.O.T Team (Part 1)

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 11:13:00 +0000

Right, 2 weeks seems an appropriate amount of time off between the conclusion of the ABL Grand Final series and the Defensive Specialist switching into off-season coverage mode. The past 14 days were a great opportunity to recharge the batteries after the inaugural season and attend to the many goals and objectives the Defensive Specialist sets for himself on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis – like reading the entire Harry Potter series! (Don’t laugh, that’s 4,176 pages in total or 298.28 pages per day!) Anyway, loyal readers will know that inactivity and the Defensive Specialist cannot coexist in a mutually beneficial relationship, which is why your old pal has decided to cast an analytical eye over the first ABL season and conduct a SWOT analysis.

For those less academically inclined, a SWOT analysis is traditionally a planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats involved in a business venture or project. Before you role your eyes and click off the page fearful of some egghead style analysis, please consider that the Defensive Specialist will not be adhering to any sort of structural guidelines (like internal or external factors) and promises to inject his rapier like wit wherever possible. So let’s get the ball rolling by considering the Strengths of the Australian Baseball league after its first season:

STRENGTHS

Well first and foremost the fact that the league actually commenced has to be considered a strength doesn’t it? They say the first step is often the most important on a difficult journey (see the Defensive Specialist drawing Harry Potter like analogies onto this??) so getting the ABL up and running was a huge achievement. The baseball community had been whispering about the reappearance of a MLB backed baseball league in Australia for quite some time, but as each year passed it looked to be fanciful talk. By actually pulling teams together and getting the ball rolling there is every chance that the competition will go from strength to strength (assuming careful management and planning) and become an integral part of the game and its development in Australia. On top of getting teams out on the field in every major Australian market, the ABL and its franchises managed to create a reasonably sound product (quality of games, entertainment etc) that will only continue to grow.

You’d have to say that fan support was a real strength in season 1 with towns like Adelaide and Canberra drawing consistent numbers, especially when you consider that games were spread across 4 days and often included a Thursday night event. It must be disconcerting that Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane had splotchy numbers across the season but with a year under its belt, venues bedded down and hopefully television coverage the crowds will increase.

While the Defensive Specialist wasn’t able to attend games in each location (the Deep in the Hole budget is still feeling the effects of the GFC), the general consensus was that franchises put a good product on the field every week. It was obvious that a lot of time and effort had been put into in-game entertainment, game day activities and the team in general (solid uniforms, conditions, travel) which once again creates a solid foundation for development.

Each team has a home. As amusing as that sounds, establishing facilities for each franchise was critical and although it came down to the wire in Melbourne and Brisbane, they found homes. While many would say that the Melbourne Showgrounds is a poor excuse for a baseball field, what were the alternatives? Road trips to Geelong again or worse yet Altona? The fact that hitters can hit pop ups that drift out of the yard for homeruns is both a pain in the backside and a quirk (much like Boston’s Green Monster) that needs to be embraced and incorporated into a team’s game plan. On the other hand, all reports suggest that the field in Canberra has an amazing playing surface and the makings of a fantastic facility.

A definite strength of the ABL was the level of local talent. While every team had an infusion of imported talent (some more than others), the vast majority of squads were primarily constructed around local Australian talent. For too many years our professional players returned home to Australia and the only preparation they had for upcoming professional seasons was to play in local competitions that in all likelihood did not present the development opportunities that they needed for advancement. By forming a league that operates across the US / Asian offseason our young talent has the forum to compete against their peers and enhance their skill sets. On top of this, non professional players now have the opportunity to compete and measure themselves against the best our baseball community has to offer.For too long we’ve been forced to trumpet the success of long retired players like David Nilsson and Graeme Lloyd because we haven’t had the stage to showcase our current players. While guys like Grant Balfour and Peter Moylan are probably past their ABL used by date (meaning they’re unlikely to ever play in it), the next wave of young players is given the opportunity to creep into the consciousness of children who can say they watched them as a nobody now that they’re in the big leagues – that’s how you build and promote Australian baseball legends (wow, that was getting seriously deep).

Confirming the point on local talent was the fact that players actually signed professional contracts while competing in the ABL. That may not have been the primary objective of the competition but it has to make the league powerbrokers warm and fuzzy in the trousers to see a number of guys extend their baseball careers. In what other way would 33 year old Chris Oxspring get an opportunity to sign with the Detroit Tigers if he didn’t have the ABL? With greater access to high quality games, we can expect more signings as players are able to showcase their skill sets.

The quality of imports has to be considered a real upside for the most part as each franchise benefitted in some way, shape or form by having foreigners on their roster (as evidenced by the Heat winning the championship behind the efforts of 2 import pitchers in game 2 &3). The Defensive Specialist mentioned many moons ago how appealing a strong league down under has to be to professional organisations who know its safe (not considering natural disasters), similar in culture to player’s homes (more so the US) and has brilliant weather. While the imports definitely lifted the quality of competition, you’d have to think that the 40 additional games in Australia assisted in their development. The Defensive Specialist will talk more on imports in some of the other sections but for the most part, their addition to the league was a real benefit.

Ok, the Defensive Specialist is heading into novel territory as the word count reaches 1200. Hit the comment section with any other strengths you saw in the ABL’s inaugural season while the Defensive Specialist sets to work on the next phase of the SWOT analysis – Weaknesses, which should appear later this week.

The Wrap Up

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 11:19:00 +0000

The one advantage of playing the 3^rd and deciding game of the ABL Grand Final series at 12pm (West Coast time) is that when you win, you can get a solid 6-8 hours of partying under your belt compared to a regular 7pm start! You can rest assured that the Perth Heat will be tilting numerous cold ones right about now as they celebrate their resounding win against the Adelaide Bite in the inaugural ABL season. As per the rest of the series, let the Defensive Specialist highlight a couple of key points:

You can bet ABL coaches around the country will be scouring the local competitions looking for the next Trevor Caugheys and Ben Moores. We discussed Caughey yesterday and we need to pour out some ink on his teammate who took the hill in game 3 and submitted a complete game, 10 strikeout performance to lead his team to the Championship. Aside from a 9^th inning blast from Stefan Welch, Moore was in complete command surrendering only 4 hits (1 was a can of corn pop-up that second baseman Luke Hughes should have caught). The performances of Moore and Caughey highlight the kind of talent floating around in local leagues and demonstrate how club teams have thrown their support behind the ABL by allowing the talent that they’ve bankrolled to participate.

Moore needs more than one paragraph! the righty befuddled the Bite with his funky ¾ delivery, Frisbee slider and roadrunner change up that had good hitters utterly confounded (see Latimore, Quincy as the prime example). Moore’s ability to get ahead and throw any pitch in any count proved to be the difference as he quieted a fearful lineup that beat up numerous pitchers throughout the season.

The Heat managed to get on top of yet another team in the fifth inning, this time putting Paul Mildren to the sword (who was on a short leash in game 3 as Manager Harris could not afford to let the game get out of hand). Mitch Graham was extremely lucky with 2 strikes as he took a fastball down and in that could very easily have been strike 3. Mildren bounded off the mound expecting to get the call. The very next pitch Graham drove a 2 run double into the right centre gap to put the Heat ahead. As Al Pacino said in “On Any Given Sunday” – it’s all about inches!

Luke Hughes must have something going on with the official scorers because he was credited with a double in the bottom of the 8^th when he singled to centre fielder James McOwen. Tim Kennelly running on second base was waved home by manager Brooke Knight on Hughes’ ground ball up the middle. McOwen’s throw was cash money but Kennelly executed an outstanding slide that saw him hook his foot around to touch the plate ahead of the sweeping tag (that actually missed making contact). Hughes being smarter than your average bear continued around first and cruised into second base. A very intelligent piece of base running but not something worthy of a double.

Kudos to umpire Brett Robson who got the bang bang call just right in signaling Kennelly safe at the plate.

Robbie Widlansky took some almighty hacks all series and finally brought the thunder in the 8^th inning as he blasted a Darren Fidge fastball out to centrefield. Widlansky is best described as a professional hitter for 2 reasons 1) he swings it pretty good and 2) he is a butcher defensively as evidenced by the fly ball that he dropped in left field. Interestingly though, Widlansky’s ball would have been a long out 2 years ago – when the decision was made to bring the fences in by about 40 feet in centrefield. The shed viewers could see behind the centrefield wall actually sits inside where the old fence was. Talk about Death Valley.

So we have our first champion in the new Australian Baseball League. It’s been an interesting season and the Defensive Specialist has thoroughly enjoyed having baseball back on the big stage. For all the skepticism before the season commenced, it’s been a pretty solid product that can only continue to get better. While this sounds like the Defensive Specialist signing off for the offseason, do not fret – your old pal has a couple of rock star blog posts up his sleeve that will be sure to keep you engrossed for at least 15 minutes per week.

Well done to the Perth Heat – 2010 / 2011 ABL Champions

An Abbreviated Look

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 23:35:00 +0000

The Heat and Bite went at it again and in somewhat of a surprise the Heat put a beat down on the Bite and their ace Brandon Maurer, taking the contest 9-2. Let’s take a look at a couple of key points:

The Defensive Specialist was furiously ironing shirts when he commented at the top of the 5^th inning that the Heat could be in big trouble. After all Maurer was serving up 94 mph fastballs and complementing it with a hellacious slider on his way to striking out 6 through 4 innings. Mrs The Defensive Specialist looked up from whatever it was she was doing and responded to her husband’s comment with “baseball is a funny game, you can score 6 runs in one inning”. And wouldn’t you know it, the Heat came out and hung a 7 spot (Perhaps Mrs The Defensive Specialist should be writing this blog!). It was startling how quickly the wheels fell off Maurer who had been absolutely dominant until the point when Ronnie Welty went big fly to lead off the 5^th. Whether it was fatigue or a mental breakdown, Maurer was unable to get back on track and his good work through 4 came undone in one foul inning.

The Defensive Specialist has seen his fair share of games at the Barbagallo Ballpark and can honestly say that even some of the best lefthanded hitters have had a tough time getting balls out of that yard to rightfield. All of a sudden a right handed hitter takes two balls out to that very area – one of which he was completely out in front of! So either some ungodly jet stream decided to show up for game 2 or Welty has some serious juice in his bat. Despite Welty’s wiry frame, he has demonstrated the ability to hit the long ball (18 in his last minor league season) and this was on display in the top of the 5^th where he appeared to sit on a fastball and drove it with authority out to right field. The second at bat with the bases drunk was a little different as he got out in front of a breaking ball and managed to flip a fence scraper out to right for a grand slam. Either way, the fact that he could put two out to the usually dead part of the ballpark is a testament to his bat speed and strength.

The Foxtel camera work is still a step behind the action and some of the camera angle decisions are probably not the best but once again the quality of the product has been very strong and definitely a building block for future broadcasts. The more the Defensive Specialist thinks about it, the more it makes sense to show a ‘series of the week’ (assuming MLB and Foxtel have plans to continue their television coverage of the ABL). For the series of the week, Foxtel goes all out like this and really showcases the contest. Single cameras could be dispersed to the other series in order to capture highlights which could then be combined to form a highlight / baseball show during the week which would be a great way to keep the game growing.

Trevor Caughey has proven that the local baseball competition can be a fertile ground for finding replacement players. The lefty has been lights out since joining the Heat and held the formidable Bite line-up to just 1 run through 7 innings before conceding a junk run in the 8^th. Working backwards (breaking balls in fastball counts), kept the Bite line-up off balance (particularly James McOwen and Quincy Latimore) en route to his 2^nd playoff victory.

The Adelaide outfield seems to be having a very tough time with balls in the air at Barbagallo Ballpark. Tom Brice in particular would be better served with a shotgun rather than a glove as he continually stabs at the ball and makes routine fly balls an adventure. Fortunately the ball he dropped did not end up hurting the Bite at the time but he can’t be doing much for his manager’s stomach lining. The wind does appear to be howling at the ballpark (Welty’s second home run will attest to that) which is clearly moving the ball around in the air.

Interestingly (and as part of the Defensive Specialists global reach), when the Defensive Specialist was in New Zealand last week, there was a back page story in the newspaper about softball and how it needs to work with baseball. Anyway, that was a little boring but as the Defensive Specialist read on, mention was made of the Boston Red Sox signing a softball catcher to a professional contract. Further reading also indicated that Baseball New Zealand had hopes of having a team competing in the ABL in the next 2 years of so! While your old pal is sceptical of the quality of team that a New Zealand franchise could put on the field, the possibility of expansion is always exciting.

Right, so where does this all lead us? Well we’re at game 3 for all the marbles! The Heat storm back to grab the momentum and the Bite are left with the challenge of rebounding from a beat down (of their ace no less). The Heat will send Ben Moore to the mound, who was 1-1 during the regular season with a 3 ERA and 14 k’s in 12 innings. The Defensive Specialist’s advance scouting team suggests that Moore owns one of the funkiest change ups you’ll likely ever see so look out for that. It would appear that Adelaide will counter with lefty Paul Mildren who started the season as the Bites ace but has been consigned to number 3 guy late in the season. Mildren contributed a 2-6 record with a 4.58 ERA in 57 innings of work. Caughey spared the Perth bullpen last night by gobbling up 7.2 innings so almost every arm will be available in game 3. The Bite do appear to have the advantage if it becomes a battle of the bullpens with Dushan Ruzic, Darren Fidge and Tom Becker all fresh and ready.

Game 2 drew a crowd of approximately 3000 so you’d have to assume that the Perth faithful will be out in force to push that number up even higher (with local competition wisely rescheduled to accommodate the deciding game). Since the Defensive Specialist has been firing blanks all season long on the prediction front, let’s turn things over to the brains of the operation”

Defensive Specialist: “Who’ll win game 3?”

Mrs Defensive Specialist: (with resolve) “The Heat”

There you have it!

Quick Hits

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 01:41:00 +0000

Quick hits from game 1 of the ABL Grand Final Series between the Perth Heat and Adelaide Bite that saw the Bite take a 1 – 0 lead in the best of 3 contest.

The ABL and Foxtel went with the “Entertainment Approach” and in general the coverage was really good. There were some early problems with graphics (both teams had multiple DH’s listed in their line ups), and the side-line reporter revealed a lack of baseball knowledge in the post game interviews by asking Mark Brackman if he would be starting in game 2. Warren Smith was very good as the play-by-play man with the only major issue occurring when his colleagues referred to him as ‘Waz”. John Deeble was serviceable as the ‘colour’ guy but could have armed himself with more information on some of the players – particularly the professionals. The real down side with the production was the lag between pitch and the cameras switching to pick up where the ball actually went. This is obviously as a result of the production team being inexperienced at putting baseball to air and would surely improve with practice. All in all it was an enjoyable broadcast and both the ABL and Foxtel should be pleased with the package they presented.
If you told the Defensive Specialist that both teams would combine for 25 hits and only score 7 runs, you’d be laughed at. Both teams came out swinging, only to see potentially large innings extinguished through a lack of clutch hitting. The Adelaide 8 & 9 hitters (Wigmore and Cakebread combined for 6 hits) while the Heat received major contributions from De San Miguel (4-5) and McArthur (3-5).
It appeared that Aaron Bonomi was safe at home plate on a bang bang play in the 8^th, which would have been the tying run. The ball clearly beat Bonomi to the plate although the throw from Jamie McOwen drew Brandon Bantz up the first base line preventing the catcher from properly blocking the plate. To the Defensive Specialist’s highly trained eye, Bonomi’s leg went through Bantz’s leg before the tag was applied. This may all be a moot point if Bonomi hadn’t slowed down after rounding third. With 2 out and a runner on second, every third base coach is going to wind the runner home so there was no excuse for Bonomi slowing.

Bonomi wondering "why'd I stop?"

Neither starters had their best stuff with Brackman surrendering 10 hits and 3 runs in 5.2 innings and Schmidt giving up 9 hits and 4 runs in 4.1 innings of work. Schmidt in particular appeared to lose his way in the 5^th as he gave up 3 runs when his usually outstanding control deserted him and he began elevating his fastball.
On the other hand, both teams received stellar support from their bullpens. Adrian Burnside was fantastic over 3 innings while Cameron Lamb provided a sublime 4.2 innings of relief. Both pen-men held their opponents scoreless for the remainder of the game.

So where to from here? Well Adelaide are most definitely in the driver’s seat heading into game 2 with their most dominant pitcher Brandon Maurer set to take the ball. The Heat will likely send Trevor Caughey to the hill in the hope that he can continue his season-long excellence. It’s hard to envision another 25 hits but both offenses are hot at present and a slugfest is not out of the question.

The Big Dance

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 10:20:00 +0000

So here we are, Grand Final week – the Big Dance! The Defensive Specialist finds himself sitting in a New Zealand hotel pouring over line ups, statistics, scouting reports and tea leaves trying to find an edge. Of course both managers (Knight & Harris) have desperately sought the Defensive Specialist’s insight which has made a business trip to our neighbour timely as it would be unfair to assist one team over another. Buoyed by the successful series prediction last week (don’t kid yourself, your old pal was concerned after David Welch tossed a no no), the Defensive Specialist is ready to break down the series and spell out a winner for one more time this season.

With the series going live to air on cable television, it’s a big weekend for the ABL and baseball in general and nothing would be better than an action packed contest that stretches over 3 games. Both teams have a legitimate shot at the title and in a move away from the norm, both teams would be considered offensive ball clubs first and foremost. Following on from last week’s winning formula, let’s take a look at what factors could win or lose it for each team:

Why Perth will lose

2 weeks off without baseball is never a good thing! The inactivity will allow the pitching staff to freshen up but the last thing a highly functioning offense wants is a lengthy break – and in baseball 10 days is an eternity. You can play all the simulated games and two pitch you want but the best way to keep the bats hot is to swing them in anger. Manager Knight has to be anxious about the layoff and the effect it will have on his hitters timing. 1 through 9 the Heat line up had been popping and this break has the potential to put a number of the bats on ice. Sure a hitters may have found their way into local competition line ups but there is a significant difference in the sloppy seconds they’d be seeing down there from a pitching perspective and the higher level offerings they’ll see in the ABL

Why Adelaide will win

Momentum. We’ve discussed how powerful having the “MO” in your dugout can be and the Bite are riding a wave of it after taking it in the back passage in game 1 of the Preliminary finals and then storming back with 2 courageous wins to claim the series. Anytime you steal a 15 inning barn burner on the road you thank your lucky stars and look for your next challenge. Perth saw its own momentum stifled by a 2 week break and will need to get an early jump on the Bite to regenerate the buzz they built up after sweeping the Blue Sox on the road.

Why the Heat will win

They’re playing at home! Ok, that doesn’t guarantee the series win like you’d expect. The Heat were a .500 ballclub at their home park this season and decidedly better on the road. Earlier in the season, Manager Knight indicated that he liked his team on the road because they were free of the distractions and commitments generally associated with playing at home (work, study, family etc). Getting away as a unit is beneficial because the only focus is baseball. You’d like to think a thumping crowd plus a grand final series provides the edge that the Heat should have by being at home.

Why Adelaide will lose

Inconsistency around their pitching staff. Mark Brackman looked shakier than bambi on ice in game 1 of the preliminary finals which may have been a splash of bad luck or simply because his anus cramped under the bright lights of playoff baseball. The Adelaide trainer will be working around the clock to keep him loose so that the Bite doesn’t get a repeat performance. Brandon Maurer has evolved into the ‘sure thing’ for Manager Harris and it is somewhat surprising that he didn’t get bumped up to game 1. After these guys it looks like Paul Mildren gets the ball in game 3 but there is no certainty there.

Maurer has been a 'sure thing' for the Bite

Why Perth will lose

Uncertainty around their pitching staff. We know Daniel Schmidt will get the ball in game 1 and the lefty has shown that he deserves the honour. After him, it’s a bit of a crapshoot and you can be sure that Manager Knight has spent plenty of time this week calling local competition coaches asking if he can borrow their imports (Caughey & Zachary). Caughey has been a revelation for the Heat in limited appearances and if he is available Knight can then employ “Johnny Allstaff” to fill out game 3. If he isn’t available God only knows who gets the ball in game 2 which is a huge concern this late in the season.

Daniel Schmidt gets the ball in game 1

Why Adelaide will win

Because they bang! The Defensive Specialist knows that you shouldn’t start a sentence with because but it is as simple as that. Jeremy Cresswell, a rejuvenated Stefan Welch, Jamie McOwen, Quincy Latirmore, Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice give the Bite a legit 1-6. Cresswell works the count and grinds out AB’s, Welch is a nice 2 hole hitter who feasts on fastballs and McOwen, Latimore, Bantz and Brice provide the grunt. Not much in the way of a let up in that group which will definitely tax the Heat staff.

McOwen leads the Bite offensively

Why Perth will win

Because they bang harder! Based on end of season form, it’s safe to suggest that the Heat go 9 deep (which also sounds like the title of a porn film). The season numbers may not show it but a line up of:

Tim Kennelly
Alan De San Miguel
Luke Hughes
Robbie Widlansky
Evan McArthur
Ronnie Welty
Matt Kennelly
Lachlan Dale / Ryne Price
Mitch Graham

Luke Hughes needs to keep his eyes open and BANG

Is pretty damn solid and brings the noise! While the Bite line up drops away from 7 through 9, the Heat attack is unrelenting, especially with Graham finding form late in the season. Against the Adelaide pitching staff, the Heat offense could explode.

So who is the this baseball brain putting his weight behind in the 2011 ABL Grand Final? The Defensive Specialist will be fidgeting in his first class international seat on the flight home tomorrow evening, eager to get in front of the television (pending a late call from ABL CEO Peter Wermuth asking for the Defensive Specialist’s expertise on the broadcast) to watch these two offensive minded ball clubs tee off on each other. When your old pal gazes into his crystal ball he sees the Heat taking game 1, Maurer maintaining his hot streak to guide the Bite to a victory in game 2 and the local boys rallying to win game 3. Perth Heat inaugural ABL champions!

Television Adds 10 Pounds

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 11:06:00 +0000

MLB commissioner Bud Selig must be reclining in his plush leather office chair, feet perched proudly on his desk as he thinks about the little old league he has running in some far fetched country called Austria / Armenia / Australia. After all, its had decent press throughout the season and as the competition has headed towards its conclusion we’ve seen some hard fought victories, a playoff no hitter and to wrap up the Sydney / Adelaide Preliminary final a 15 inning barn burner that had both teams selling their souls to the baseball gods for a victory. To make things even better in Bud’s world, the final series is being televised nationally! He can definitely check “establish an MLB out posting in a foreign country” off his things to do list while commissioner of baseball.

It’s definitely an exciting time for Australian baseball and a buzz abounds with the final series being televised. However with national exposure comes a big stage to expose both the good and the bad that our sport has to offer in a time when getting buy-in is absolutely critical to the league’s viability and growth. The Defensive Specialist thought now would be a good time to consider a number of key points as the ABL and Foxtel get ready to package this product.

Are the ABL and Foxtel showcasing or educating?

There is a big difference between slickly packaging the broadcast and allowing the game to speak for itself, or running an ‘idiots guide to baseball”. Let the Defensive Specialist flesh this one out:

Showcasing the game – solid and informed commentary, slick camera work, timely replays and polished production (stats and packages) – think ESPN’s Sunday night baseball.
Educating the masses – explaining the rules of the game, increased talking, basic information. More like a teaching the session, detailing every play.

In the Defensive Specialist’s esteemed opinion, it’s difficult to do both well which is why you see cricket broadcasts do the ‘teaching’ bit during lunch breaks or in packages rather than trying to do so during the actual game. The ABL really has a 3 game trial with Foxtel and the viewing masses so it makes sense to put a polished package together that showcases the game rather than trying to bring people up to speed with the ins and outs of baseball. You’d have to think that the vast majority of people tuning in will be baseball fans, however Foxtel and the ABL will hope to catch the attention of casual viewers who may stumble across the broadcast. Surely these people don’t want to listen to commentators drone on about ‘tagging up’ and ‘how to grip a bat’ when there is a chance to see a well produced performance of baseball.

Peering into the future, perhaps next season the league could feature a weekly highlights type show – 30 minutes of action, interviews, top plays etc that grabs viewers attention. This could be supplemented with a game of the week (which would reduce cost by limiting the number of games broadcast) and then to bring the casual fan up to speed maybe even an educational type show that zeroes in on kids (although the Defensive Specialist believes that these would be better in cut down versions inserted into some form of pregame show).

Will the commentary be up to standard?

This really ties in to the above point regarding production. The Defensive Specialist hopes and prays that the commentary can be polished and informative rather than inane and pointless conversation that we’ve seen on other occasions. We’ve seen MLB bring out US expertise to assist in running the franchises and in game day preparation and it would be great to see some influence around commentary with well informed and educated people behind the microphones. A good broadcast team includes a play-by-play announcer who provides a running overview of the game and a colour man who contributes analysis and opinion. With other American sports played in Australia, we’ve seen numerous instances where the commentary team simply couldn’t provide a professional and interest-holding dialogue for the duration of the contest.

The great thing about baseball is that it’s timeless. The worst thing about baseball from a commentary perspective is that it’s timeless! What does this mean? Well because baseball can be somewhat on the slow side, commentators have to deftly fill time without becoming a talking head that fills up the space with words. The real art is letting the game speak for itself and using the words to fill the gaps (that was almost poetic in it’s beauty!).

It’s not easy broadcasting baseball!

Think about the experience you have when you watch an MLB game on Foxtel or ESPN. Multiple camera angles, immediate tracking of the action and almost instantaneous replays provide for an outstanding experience. In order to provide a close approximation of such an experience, you’d have to think that Foxtel will require at least 5 camera’s (1 behind the pitcher, 1 behind the hitter, 1 behind first, 1 behind 3^rd and 1 on the field). You can see right there the cost associated with broadcasting baseball games, especially across a 3 or 4 game and why it’s a big deal if the league gets more games on air in coming seasons. It will be interesting to see how inexperienced camera operators and production crews (from a baseball perspective) handle the cut and thrust of a game. Can they get the broadcast in the right place at the right time?

What about the bells and whistles?

Being the first time the ABL has gone to air, will we get slickly produced player profiles, graphics and packages? If the ABL is aiming to showcase the product then you’d hope so. Baseball fans want to see averages and statistics. In order to promote the game, pre-packaged player features can be used adroitly to add value and launch local players into the public’s consciousness. A brief pregame show would be an interesting wrinkle and allow the BAL to show case local stars or leading baseball figures in Australia. The more effort that’s put in around these types of features, the better the product will be.

At the end of the day, if the ABL and Foxtel can put together an outstanding broadcast, the game will benefit. The ABL has a small window of opportunity to promote the game on a grand stage – lets hope that they’re able to do it right so that televised games become the norm rather than a bonus.

NO!

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:55:00 +0000

Under normal circumstances the Defensive Specialist would bang out this post on Saturday morning. Tonight wasn’t a normal circumstance. How often do you get to witness a no hitter? More importantly, how often do you get to witness a no hitter during a playoff game (don’t answer that Phillie fans)?

Sitting at Blacktown Olympic Park it truly felt like the Defensive Specialist was inside a barbeque with all 4 burners on high heat. Seriously, it was ridiculously hot with stifling humidity to boot. Perhaps it was the weather but the crowd for a playoff game was once again disappointing with numerous empty seats along the third base line section of the stands. The conditions seemed to be taking a toll on the home side as well. They contributed one of the sloppiest pre games the Defensive Specialist had seen in a long time, which didn’t bode well.

Your old pal was left scratching his head at the wholesale changes that Manager Glenn Williams had made to his Blue Sox line-up. Gone was the uber hot January bat of Trent Schmutter, replaced with Moko Moanaroa. Gone was Mark Holland, replaced at second by Trent D’Antonio. Josh Dean was added to the line-up at third and rightfielder David Kandilas was promoted to the two-hole. Drastic alterations like these are often deemed panic moves and not what you’d expect from a league leading team in a playoff series.

Fortunately the one constant all season for the Sydney team has been starting pitching and no one has been steadier than David Welch. The lefty had an outstanding season and was expected to shoulder the load for a Blue Sox team that just couldn’t find a way to manufacture any runs.

Mark Brackman was given the starting assignment for the Bite and things did not get off to the start he or his manager were hoping for. D’Antonio led off with a crisp single to centre which was followed by a Kandilas walk. Mitch Dening then took 35 seconds to stroll to the plate but wasted no time in punching a 2 run double down the left field line. Alex Johnson punched out and clearly demonstrated that he and sliders can never be in a serious relationship. Brendan Kingman and his bandaged together body dumped a fist shot into right to put runners on first and third for Dean who grounded out to short to score Dening.

3-0 Blue Sox.

The second inning provided no respite for Brackman as Michael Lysaught singled to right with one out and D’Antonio mashed a homerun to straight away rightfield. Kandilas grounded out and Dening picked up his second knock before Johnson made the final out of the inning

5-0 Blue Sox.

Brackman went out for the third and after a Kingman groundout he surrendered a singled to Dean and a walk to Moanaroa before he was lifted for Dushan Ruzic. Ruzic immediately gave up a scorched double to the right centre gap off the bat of Stone Hands Maat. Dean scored on the double while Moanaroa advanced to third. Lysaught grounded out with the infield in and D’Antonio picked up his third knock with a line drive to right that scored Moanaroa. Assuming that Maat would be waved home (he wasn’t) , D’Antonio continued to second. He would have been out easily if the Bite first baseman had cut the ball but by this stage the Bite’s wheels had well and truly fallen off.

7-0 Blue Sox.

Both pitchers settled into a groove and began working their way through the innings. The Defensive Specialists sent his first “Welch = dealing” text message during the 5^th inning and by the 6^th the Defensive Specialist had moved to the edge of his seat sensing that Welch was on the cusp of something special. The 7^th inning was interesting because there was a noticeable drop in Welch’s velocity (the stadium radar gun made a welcomed return!) which obviously indicated that the veteran was tiring (not surprising considering that he may have sweated 15-20 litres of body fluid).

The Blue Sox crowd started to dial in on the occasion by the 8^th when Welch forced Josh Cakebread into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning.

The atmosphere in the park took on a whole new turn in the 9^th with Welch on the verge of a no no and the heart of the Adelaide line up at the plate. Jeremy Cresswell struck out to get things going. Stefan Welch then popped out to second. With Jamie McOwen striding to the dish, the crowd was on its feet. Welch managed to get McOwne flailing which resulted in a high chopper back to the mound. The pitcher leapt and snagged the ball as McOwen hustled down the line, desperate to break it up. Perhaps not realising he had more time or perhaps experiencing some severe sphincter tightness, Welch rushed himself and launched the ball down the line.

ERROR!

What should have been a routine final out to complete a no hitter all of a sudden became a farcical mistake that resulted in a runner on base and the big hitting righty Quincy Latimore at the dish. Welch was clearly running on empty as his fastball was now at 82 (he had it up to 88 earlier in the contest) and was almost solely reliant on his breaking ball. After falling behind 0-2, Welch pumped a slurve for a strike and then followed with another. With the count 2-2 he went to it again and Latimore pounced sending a towering fly ball to left that immediately sucked the sticky air out of the ballpark. Replacement leftfielder Trent Schmutter drifted back to the wall and the fans held their breath. And then all of a sudden the ball dropped from the sky into Schmutters glove on the warning track.

Game over – no hitter!

The Blue Sox mobbed their starter (who didn’t seem to know who to hug first - finally settling on his catcher Stone Hands) on the field, performing a very nice dog pile on the mound in celebration.

Obviously the Defensive Specialist Player of the Game goes to David Welch who not only tossed a complete game no hitter, but also racked up 10 strikeouts in a game that Sydney really had to have in order to get them off their recent schnide and put them in a commanding series position. All momentum sits in the Blue Sox dugout now as the mighty Adelaide line up must now find a way to get two wins on the road against Craig Anderson and Wayne Lundgren as well as a newly confident Sydney attack. Not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination!

Wait til I get my money right

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 10:11:00 +0000

Things have gotten so bad that playoff team members and supporters have been writing in to Deep in the Hole asking the Defensive Specialist to pick against them in the playoffs because if things hold true to form they’ll end up winning. For a certified “expert” at picking horseflesh, you have to know that this run of bad form truly troubles the Defensive Specialist. Your old pal has spent countless hours evaluating the process:

Rock solid analysis: CHECK
In-depth research: CHECK
Numerous hours of study: CHECK
A healthy dose of gut instinct: CHECK

Baseball is one of those sports that can totally derail a player if he can’t ride the storm and keep his emotions in order. As you can imagine the Defensive Specialist is unwavering in his self-belief but still turned to a mentor to get an assessment of the state of play:

Defensive Specialist: “I’m concerned that my analysis is off the mark”

Mentor: “It’s not”

Defensive Specialist: “But I’ve faltered on numerous occasions this season”

Mentor: “You’ve got to keep swinging the bat my young apprentice”

Defensive Specialist: “I could be in a slump”

Mentor: “Stop that. In the words of the great Kanye West – Wait til you get your money right”.

And with that, the Defensive Specialist felt a sense of calm. If the Defensive Specialist keeps doing the hard yards, the universe will correct itself and the Defensive Specialist will be an unstoppable force once again.

With Adelaide visiting Sydney this weekend, let the Defensive Specialist channel Kanye and tell you why each team can win and lose this contest.

Why Sydney will win:

Starting pitching. The Defensive Specialist feels like a broken record having spoken about the combination of Oxspring, Welch, Lundgren and Anderson ad infinitum this season but the fact is, no team can line up 4 front line guys like them. Of course the spanner in the works here is that Oxspring has been pushed into the bullpen in an effort to prepare himself for spring training. His departure dents things somewhat for the Blue Sox but the vast majority of teams would take a three headed monster featuring Welch, Lundgren and Anderson. Welch really is the key this series as he presents the best chance of a win for the Blue Sox. His season has been flat out dominant and he has shown that he can lock down even the best hitting teams. Manager Glenn Williams will be counting on Welch getting a win and eating innings so that he can throw the rest of his staff at the Bite in games 2 and potentially 3.

David Welch

Why Adelaide will win:

Because they’ve got an edge and they’re hungry. The Bite are riding a solid wave of momentum after pounding Melbourne at home in the minor semi final and winning 7 of their last 8 games. Momentum can be a powerful force, especially during the playoffs (and if anyone doubts that, take a look at the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers who both ended up in the World Series despite being severe underdogs entering the playoffs). Numerous readers have commented that the Bite just appear determined and edgy. It’s obvious that they can taste a championship and will do what it takes to achieve that goal (and yes, don’t be surprised if we see some physical fireworks) which means we will see some boys selling out physically to win ball games which makes for compelling viewing.

Why Adelaide will win:

The Bite bang the ball around the yard. With James McOwen in the 3 hole and Quincy Latimore in the clean up position the Adelaide team has some serious punch. Stefan Welch finally seems to have found some form with the bat and with Jeremy Cresswell leading off, the Bite have runners on board in front of their boppers. Brandon Bantz and Tom Brice have both been hot of late which means the Adelaide line up is dangerous 1-6 at the very least.

A frequently occurring event for the Bite offensively

Why Sydney will lose:

They just can’t hit. Ok, that’s a bit hard but why beat around the bush? Mitch Denning got it going against Perth (4-7), which is absolutely critical to the cause but the Blue Sox need Alex Johnson supplying some thunder and more importantly Trent D’Antonio and Trent Schmutter have to find a way to get on base in front of these two. After the top four it’s all question marks although Brendan Kingman has managed to run into a couple of balls for clutch homeruns. If Dening or Johnson can be shut down, the Defensive Specialist doesn’t see anyone else shouldering the burden.

Holy white man line beard!

Why Adelaide will lose:

Inconsistency in the starting pitching. Brandon Maurer really found his groove late in the year and despite not having his best stuff in his first play off appearance still managed to punch out 8 in 6 innings while giving up 3 runs. Mark Brackman will take the ball in game 1 and the big man will need to replicate his performance against Melbourne, especially when you consider that he’s going up against the miserly Welch. Knowing that his opponent wont give up many, Brackman will need to be dialled in and prepared to keep the Blue Sox to 2 runs or less. After those two, Manager Tony Harris has a quandary – does he use Paul Mildren (who’s been buried on the shelf for 2 weeks after a poor outing against Brisbane on January 20^th)or Dushan Ruzic (who could be a weapon out of the pen, especially against righties) should a game 3 start eventuate? The Bite pitching has been up and down this season and the worse case scenario for their skipper is a bumpy outing from a starter that forces the pen into action early in the series.

Why Sydney will win:

Home field advantage! Ok, so that was a cheap shot. Aside from being swept in the first round of the playoffs at home, the crowd support was less than optimal with large sections of the seating area empty for game 1 last week. Adelaide reportedly had 3000 people at their 2^nd playoff game while Sydney struggled to crack 1000. Without rapid home support, the Adelaide momentum will be allowed to run unchecked.

Why Adelaide will lose:

Good pitching beats good hitting. If the Blue Sox staff performs at its expected level they’re a tough group of arms to contest. Remember a few weeks back when the Blue Sox shut down the Bite in 4 games (granted Latimore and McOwen were missing). If the Bite can’t manufacture runs early and grind it out they’ll face a tough challenge offensively because Williams can employ the lights out and rubber armed Dae Song Koo to close things out.

Why Sydney will win:

They’re the regular season league leaders who pulled Adelaide’s pants down in their last meeting. The Blue Sox finished in first place for a reason and may relish the fact that they enter this series as underdogs with the vast majority of baseball fans jumping on the Bite bandwagon for this preliminary final. The underwhelming expectations for the team may lift some of the pressure and allow them to play better baseball. Stranger things have happened!

So does the Defensive Specialist have his money right? Adelaide momentum + big bats Vs Sydney pitching + home field advantage. In the Defensive Specialist’s esteemed opinion, Adelaide wants it too much and will take the series convincingly, setting up a grand final contest between the Heat and the Bite.

(Sydney fans now rejoice and start wagering heavily on their team to win!)

Ace in the Hole

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 11:14:00 +0000

With a big couple of weeks on the cards, the Defensive Specialist thought he’d kick things off by dipping into the Deep in the Hole mailbag. The Defensive Specialist has already mentioned that pitching is often the key in playoff baseball and for an offensively challenged ballclub like the Blue Sox it’s going to be critical – especially as they square up against one of the scarier clubs in the competition, the big hitting Adelaide Bite. Today’s question centres on one of the Blue Sox real strengths, having an Ace (or Aces) leading the staff.

Defensive Specialist,

I’ve been reading your website for a while now and you’ve referred to guys like Welch and Oxpsring as aces on a number of occasions. As a father of a baseball mad son, I was interested to know what makes an ace and what my boy can do to build arm strength and develop other pitchers like sliders and curveballs.

Cheers

BT,

Thanks for writing in. It’s timely that you raise the topic of aces, as those in Sydney will have the chance to see a couple this weekend. While the Defensive Specialist is generally a font of knowledge, it seemed appropriate to tap into your old pal’s extensive network to provide a more “pitcher centric” take on the above question. The Defensive Specialist dialled up the US Correspondent for his thoughts:

Solid question BT, let me break it into 2 parts:

1) What makes an ace?

Felix Hernandez

Cliff Lee

Personally I don't think an Ace pitcher can be "made". Traditionally a team’s Ace is the best guy on the staff, notice I didn't necessarily say the guy with the best "stuff". I honestly believe that being a true Ace is just as much a mental mindset as it is having a set of physical skills. As coaches we identify guys who we believe fit the mould of staff Ace and try to make them into that pitcher. But an Ace in my opinion truly separates himself with his leadership skills and his ability to be mentally tougher than his opponent and competition. With that being said an "Ace" does need to possess a certain set of skills that will separate him from the rest of the pack - whether that is unbelievable command like Cliff Lee, or flat out dominating stuff like a Felix Hernandez (or a combination of both like Roy Halladay!). On the flip side there are plenty of big leaguers who have potentially better stuff but can't reach the elite status of being relied on as staff Ace. AJ Burnett doesn't have many peers in terms of how hard he throws and the movement he gets on his offfspeed stuff, but what separates him from being a 10-15 pitcher on one of the best teams in baseball compared with becoming the dominant ace that everyone would expect? You’d have to say what’s between his ears.

The same concept translates over to the amateur ranks. We've all played with, coached, or watched a game where you can immediately recognize the guy you want to have the ball when a game must be won. Staff Ace's possess the aura that immediately lets their teammates and opponents know that they are confident in their skills and are going to give their team the best chance to win that day. Whether that mentality is something that is taught or something that individual is born with is the big question.

As a coach I think the important thing is being able to put individuals who you identify as potential "Aces" in competitive/challenging situations that will show how they separate themselves from the rest of the pack both from a mental and competitive standpoint. These challenges/competitions can be conducted in a baseball setting but it’s also good to see how these individuals attitude and competitive nature translates to a non-baseball situation (i.e. in the weight room, during conditioning and even in school and jobs). Everyone has heard about Roy Halladay’s work ethic and desire to keep getting better – that’s part of his makeup. As a coach I think it’s our responsibility to identify the “Aces” out there and put them in positions where they can demonstrate the qualities that we want in the role. Unfortunately, I don’t think you can just appoint a kid as an Ace and then teach them how to be one.

2) How do you build arm strength and refine secondary stuff (curveballs, sliders etc)?

I think these two topics are directly correlated with each other. Building arm strength is one of the biggest components to having a successful pitching staff. Arm strength obviously has many benefits with the two primary reasons being 1) it allows pitchers to throw harder and for a longer duration of time and 2) it helps prevent injury. With that in mind, refining secondary pitches is all about getting repetitions and practicing that skill. In order to do that, your arm needs to be in the type of shape that allows you to actually use it on a regular basis.

You get better at baseball by playing it as often as possible - big revelation there (that’s why the big leagues play 162 games). This can be a double-edged sword for pitchers, as pitchers can only tax their arm so much. Unlike hitters and fielders who can take hundreds of repetitions a day (ground balls/batting practice) and then come back out and do it again the next day, pitchers can realistically only get on the mound 2-3 times a week for an extended amount of time, especially when you’re in-season and you’re preparing to be at your best every 5-7 days.

This is where the role of building arm strength is the core of a pitchers preparation. I certainly believe playing long toss is the number one component to building arm strength and maximizing the abilities your body has (whether that’s 85mph or 95mph). Many people have throwing programs that spell out how far and how many times you should throw the ball per session, but bottom line is throwing the ball as hard and far as you can with proper mechanics will help build the muscles that you actually use in throwing a baseball. People argue the specifics of long toss (is it okay to put a rainbow on it or do I need to keep it on a line?) and I honestly can't say which one is better. What I do know is that throwing the ball to max capacity will help condition your arm to do that in a game setting. As a starting pitcher you are training to throw the ball at max capacity presumably 90-120 times per game.

Some people will argue that weight training builds more arm strength but throwing a baseball requires specific muscles that are very individual to that specific skill. I think weight training supplements a good throwing program but if weight training is the sole indicator to throwing hard and building arm strength then why isn't Major League Baseball littered with 300 pound lifting champions? I am a huge believer in doing shoulder exercise routines (tubes, light weights, etc.), building a strong core through different exercises and being as functionally strong as possible, but would encourage young pitchers looking to make a jump to play as much long toss as possible in their training.

As far as refining secondary pitches I think the more time you can spend doing them the better, which is why arm strength is directly correlated to the topic. Your arm needs to be in shape so you can use it, and not be on the shelf for 3 days after you throw. I believe getting on the mound as much as possible is a big contributor to enhancing your pitches whether that’s a change, slider, split, curve, etc. That doesn't necessarily mean you have to throw a full 60 feet every time - having the catcher in front of the plate is beneficial too, as it really makes you get out front with your release point. If getting on the mound is not an option then flat ground (pitching just on a flat surface, 50-60 ft apart) is another way to work on these pitches. One of the biggest factors in making your offspeed pitches effective is ensuring it looks like your fastball (from a release point, arm slot, arm speed perspective) so practicing throwing your off speed with that in mind will help blend all those components together. Hopefully the end result will be that your mechanics look identical with the only difference being your grip – that creates real deception for hitters who cant pick up early what’s on the way to the plate..

Pitching like any other skill is something you get more confidence in the more you do it. Malcolm Gladwell theorises in his book "Outliers" that you can’t master a skill until you perform it for 10,000 hours. So being in peak physical condition (arm strength and health) will at least give you the opportunity to master your craft.

Shedding Light on the Subject

noreply@blogger.com (The Defensive Specialist) — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 01:39:00 +0000

A spousal illness on Friday meant the Defensive Specialist had to switch into his role as Superhusband / father and was unable to attend Game 2 of the Blue Sox / Heat series. Fortunately it played out just as the Defensive Specialist predicted – a dominant sweep by the Heat on the road……….

Yeah ok, so perhaps the Defensive Specialist screwed the pooch on that call but it’s not like the predictions offered here at Deep in the Hole have been close to accurate all year anyway. One call your old pal did get right was the Adelaide Bite / Melbourne Aces result which was kind of a no brainer anyway.

The Heat roll straight into the Grand Final to be held at their home ballpark (which may or may not be a good thing when you consider their .500 record at the Barbagallo Ballpark) with their offense humming and some resilient efforts on the mound from the pitching staff. The Sydney team have to have a case of the tight sphincter now, knowing that they’ll play host to the hard hitting Bite who have won 7 of their last 8 games. The Blue Sox will be buoyed by the fact they pulled the Bite’s pants down the last time they played in Sydney, sweeping the series 4-0. Two big problems facing the Sydney team are:

1) Chris Oxpsring is now a reliever, which means that team is now down an ace

And

2) The Blue Sox offense is even more exposed now that playoffs are here and the pitching is above average. On the upside, Mitch Dening seems to have found his stroke in the 2 games against Perth clearly leading the way offensively in a losing effort.

Adelaide welcomed Quincy Latimore and James McOwen back into the fold after both took some time off due to injury which makes the Bite line up all the more potent. Mark Brackman took the ball in game 1 of the semi finals and was solid and although Brandon Maurer didn’t appear to have his best stuff in game 2, he did manage to punch out 8 in 6 innings of work. The Defensive Specialist will have more detailed thoughts on the next round of playoffs later in the week.

As many ABL fans know, Foxtel will be showing the grand finals series, which is a coup for the sport and an exciting development. Many will be scratching their head at the 4.30pm start times for the games and wonder why on earth the schedule has been changed. Well let your old pal tell you why. Apparently the quality of lighting in the ballparks is not conducive to the broadcast being in high definition, hence the need to play the games in daylight to avoid this technical issue. So that means on the east coast we’ll be watching games at 7.30 pm due to Western Australia’s backwater mentality of not having day light savings. No word yet on who’ll be commentating but lets just hope and pray that its someone with half an idea.

The Defensive Specialist isn’t really too worried about the broadcast anyway since he fully expects MLB / ABL to bankroll Australia’s preeminent baseball blogger’s trip to the Grand Final series anyway…….