Depressed Fan

Sixers Head to etroit

2009-11-08T13:22:09Z

Get it, no "D." It's not technically true, they're a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, statistically, and their numbers are much better than the Sixers, but they aren't what they used to be. Not even close. Check out the preview after the jump.

It looks like both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince will miss this game, which means the Sixers will probably face this lineup:

PG: Stuckey
SG: Ben Gordon
SF: Charlie Villaneuva
PF: Jonas Jerebko
C: Ben Wallace

If you don't know who Jerebko is, click the link. I didn't either. If you don't know what happened to Jason Maxielle that he can't even get a start with this depleted front court, ask John Kuester.

My guess is that the Sixers and Pistons will flip-flop their defensive assignments at the guard spots, with Lou checking Ben Gordon and Iguodala against the bigger, and more physical, Stuckey. The wild card among the guards is Will Bynum, he's the NBA equivalent of a scatback in the NFL, and he can change the game with his penetration off the bench.

On the offensive end, the Piston startling lineup is basically playing 3 on 5 with the Swede at PF. Gordon and Villaneuva certainly aren't shy about gunning from deep, even though the latter should be. Stuckey's jumper is a work in progress, at best. Bynum will also put up threes, and can hit the shot.

When the Sixers have the ball, there are definite mismatches. In fact, there are probably mismatches at every position. Brand against a rookie. Dalembert against a decrepit Ben Wallace. Thad against a guy who can't spell D. Iguodala is too strong for either Gordon or Stuckey, whoever they decide to put on him. Lou is too quick for either of them as well. The Sixers should be able to exploit whatever matchup they want, outside of Dalembert, whose advantage should present itself in offensive rebounds.

The Pistons are countering their relative dearth of talent by playing at a snail's pace. They're averaging only 88.3 possessions per game, dead last in the league.

I had this game down as a win before the season began, and I'm going to stick with that prediction. The Pistons are 2-4, having lost to OKC, MIL, TOR and ORL. They did have one solid win, over a depleted Magic team, but I just don't view them as a good team, especially not without Prince to put on Iguodala.

Here's a fun fact from the stats: Wallace + Jarebko = 9/20 from the line so far this season. That's 45%. If either of those guys gets anywhere near a dunk, just wrap him up.

Key to the Game: Defensive rebounding. Don't give the Pistons extra possessions.
If _______________ the Sixers will win: Stuckey + Bynum = less than 30 points.

This is our game thread, I'll be here throughout the game, so join me for the matinee.

Game 5 Advanced Stats and Reconciling Differences

2009-11-08T01:55:29Z

Be forewarned, this is one of the most geeky posts ever to be written on this blog. I spent way too much time this evening trying to figure out why my advanced stats didn't mesh with a few different sites. Check out the updated chart after the jump, and feel free to skip the part where I explain the differences in the numbers if you aren't into it.

As you can see, the pace was way down last night, mostly because the Sixers were extending pressure at various times throughout the game, and neither team was in much of a hurry to run offense. The Sixers performed a little above their season average in offensive efficiency and held the Nets below their typical defensive efficiency rating, although you would've hoped they could've performed much better on the defensive end.

Two trends continue through the first five game: 1) When the Sixers beat their opponents in eFG, they win the game. When they don't, they lose. 2) The only area the Sixers are truly dominating right now is free throw rate. They're producing almost twice as much from the charity stripe as their opponents. This might be a mixed blessing stat. Getting to the line is obviously very good, and very important for this team. But on the other side, not sending the other team to the line could be a mixed bag. On the one hand, you aren't giving up free points. On the other hand, why aren't you fouling? Is it because you're playing sound fundamental defense, or is it because you're giving up a ton of uncontested shots? Too early to tell, but I'm leaning toward the latter.

And now for my battle with formulas. Here's the issue, I obtained the formula I use for possessions from Dean Oliver's book, Basketball On Paper. This is the same formula listed by basketball-reference.com, and this formula is the building block for Offensive and Defensive ratings as well. Somehow, the numbers I was coming up with, using the same formula they list in their glossary, were different than their numbers. I had 108.26 for offensive rating, they had 107.3. I had 111.4 for defensive rating, they had 110.4. I had 93.56 for pace, they had 94.4.

First, I checked, double checked and triple checked my formulas. I assumed I had simply made a mistake somewhere, maybe misplaced a parenthesis. That wasn't the problem, though. Then I thought maybe Basketball-Reference.com had made a mistake in their calculations, so I went to another source for pace and OR/DR ratings, Knickerblogger.net. Their results were exactly the same as B-R.com's.

At this point, I decided to look at methodology. The formula for possessions is basically an estimate, a fairly accurate estimate, but still, it's not perfect. Teams should have an equal number of possessions throughout the game (This is Oliver's assertion, but I think teams probably wind up a possession or two apart in most games, but that's neither here nor there), so what you do is run the formula for each team, then average the two numbers. They're never exactly the same. When I run my OR and DR numbers, I use this average number for both.

Let's use last night's Nets' game as an example:

The formula tells us the Sixers had 87.12 possessions, while the Nets had 90.46. The average of the two would be 88.79. To get the offensive rating for the Sixers, I then divide points scored (97) by possessions (88.79). This gives you the number of points per possession (1.0924). Then you multiply that number by 100 to get the offensive rating (109.24).

My first step in questioning methodology was to see if maybe B-R.com and Knickerblogger were using the raw formula for each team to determine the OR & DR. It can make a pretty big difference. If we use the number the formula gave us for the Sixers alone (87.12), their offensive rating would jump up to 111.34. So I plugged all of those numbers in to see if that made up for the difference. It did not.

At this point, I was completely at a loss, so instead of figuring out how what numbers they used to derive their formulas, I looked at their results and tried to reverse engineer the numbers. The only variable here is possessions. The points are a constant, no matter what math they used, the Sixers have still scored 517 points and allowed 532. So I used simple algebra to figure out how many possessions they were using. It looks like this:

Offensive rating

(517/x) x 100 = 107.3

Defensive rating

(532/x) x 100 = 110.4

The answer to both was roughly 481.9. Here are the total possessions using the various formulas, according to my math:

Sixers possessions: 473.15
Opponents possessions: 481.94
Average possessions: 477.55

So the mystery was solved, sort of. It looks like both B-R.com and Knickerblogger use the opponent's possessions to calculate OR & DR, although I'm not sure why. Unfortunately, there was still a problem with the pace calculation.

Pace is possessions per 48 minutes, rather than possessions per game. It's an important distinction when you have an overtime game in your sample. There's a convoluted formula for it, using total team minutes, but you can easily get pace by dividing possessions by the number of minutes in a game (53 for a single overtime game), then multiplying by 48. The Sixers possessions/game (using the average of pos. and op. pos.) is 95.51. Their pace is 93.36, by my math, because of the overtime game in New York. Unfortunately, both B-R.com and Knickerblogger had their pace at 94.4. When you break out the algebra again, you find out they're both using opponent's possessions to calculate pace, again, rather than the average.

I can't explain why they're doing this, but that's the only way I can come up with their numbers. Personally, I don't like the methodology at all and I'm going to stick with the average number of possessions going forward.

This is just a long-winded explanation of why my pace, offensive rating and defensive rating numbers differ from those at B-R.com and Knickerblogger.

You Ain't Got No Alibi...

2009-11-07T08:04:12Z

Three wins, two losses. I've been chanting those four words to myself since the game ended to remind myself that the Sixers won a game they should've won tonight. That's a positive. Whenever the loop ends, I'm left with nagging thoughts about a lackluster performance in front of a pitiful crowd. Still, the Sixers came away with a 97-94 win over the depleted New Jersey Nets. Rotations, thoughts and a bonus graphic after the jump.

One benefit of watching a game entirely on DVR is that I can pause, rewind, and more accurately track something that strikes my fancy. Tonight, I decided to take a close look at where Elton Brand was getting the ball in the offense. I also wanted to track where Dalembert got the ball, to see if swapping their positions on the offensive end might make some sense. You'll notice the touches are color-coded by quarter and the totals are included.

The dots in the charts represent where each player received a pass within the offense. This doesn't include offensive rebounds or loose balls, only where they were standing on the floor when they caught a pass.

For the time being, forget that Brand was benched for the final 17+ minutes of the game, and let's just take a look at this chart. For the record, Brand was 4/7 for 8 points with 5 boards and 1 assist in 19 minutes of action. OK, now what does this chart tell you? The first thing that jumps out to me is that more than half of the time, Brand caught the ball in a position where he was not a threat. He was simply a way station for the ball as it passed from one perimeter player to another. Second, he got the ball on the low blocks twice. Once because he wound up with Terence Williams covering him on a switch (he got the ball, Sam's man left to help, he hit Sam with a nice pass for a dunk). The other time he quickly scored over Josh Boone with a nice lefty hook.

He took a couple of those shots from the elbow, hitting two of them. I honestly don't know what to make of this. The Sixers had a clear advantage in Brand vs. anyone who was guarding him, yet they refused to take advantage. He was little more than a decoy when he did get the ball. I'd understand a pattern like this if his shot was off, but he hit 4/7 from the floor.

Meanwhile, Dalembert was essentially ignored on offense. When he did get the ball, he was in a position to make an easy play. This is good offense in my opinion. He only converted one of his three shots, but on the other hand, he only took three shots.

The question I came in trying to answer was whether it would make sense to switch Brand and Sammy's responsibilities on the offensive end of the floor. The chart probably doesn't do a great job of depicting it, but Sam sets up on the blocks pretty much every time down the floor. The ballhandlers basically ignored him down there for most of the game, but what if the option down there was Brand instead? It's not like he's contributing anything catching the ball 28 feet from the hoop, Sammy could play that roll, all he needs to do is catch an uncontested pass, then hand it off to one of the guards.

Whatever the problem is, coach, players or system, this team needs to find a way to get the ball to Brand in a position where he can do something with when they're in their half-court sets. Doubly so when he has a blatant mismatch, like they did tonight.

Now let's take a look at the rotations:

Two quick notes about the rotations, then I'll move on because I don't feel like banging that particular drum tonight. (1) There's no way Elton Brand deserved to be benched for the remainder of the game when he was taken out with 5:23 left in the third. He wasn't the reason for the -9 the starters suffered through to start the third. He wasn't exactly part of the solution, either, but he didn't deserve to be singled out. And as I said before, he was effective in his minutes on the floor. (2) The game was won/saved when Jordan put Dalembert into the game with 7:53 left in the fourth. This begs the question of why it took that long to get him back into the game, but Jordan realized the defense improved dramatically when he got Sammy back in there, and Sammy responded with game-changing play down the stretch.

I jotted down a few notes during the game, here goes:

My Note - Jason Smith!!! Translation - Smith looked infinitely better on the floor tonight. His shot looked comfortable, and effective, he was active on the boards and on defense.
My Note - Reversible Jerseys? Translation - The Sixers crowd was absolutely, positively pathetic. Probably the worst regular season crowd I've seen in the past 5 years. But, at least the Sixers haven't taken part in the depravity that is the New Jersey Nets marketing plan. I watched the game on YES and one of their promos was for a 10-game pack of tickets. The package included 5 premium games, I believe against the Cavs, Lakers, Magic, Heat and Celtics. Here's the kicker. If you bought tickets, you got free jerseys. The jerseys, however, were reversible. Worn the proper way, they were Nets jerseys. Worn inside out, they were the jerseys of the visiting star of each respective team (Wade, Kobe, LeBron, Garnett and Howard). Just pitiful.
My Note - 5 Deep, heh. Translation - Great timing with my post about how the bench players completely submarine this team when too many of them are on the floor. 5 bench guys threw up a +5 in the second. Then four bench guys followed that up with a +2. Willie led the team with a +10.
My Note - 2:30 left in the fourth. Translation - On this offensive possession Lou nearly threw a pass away, recovered the ball, pounded it into the ground at the top of the key, then tried a lean-in jumper as the shot clock wore out. This was notable, because it was the only mistake he made on the offensive end all night. Lou played every second of the second half and really played a marvelous offensive game (he still didn't put up any kind of a fight to stop penetration, but I think we should just expect that at this point). He finished with 18 points on 6/14 from the floor, 2/5 from three, 4/4 from the line, 9 boards, 6 assists, 0 turnovers and 1 steal.
My Note - F Me. Translation - One day after Jordan said there's an open audition for the role of first guard off the bench, he taps Willie Green to be the guy, and Willie actually doesn't play half bad. Jrue gets a DNPCD against a team that played a rookie at the point for about 10 minutes.

That's all I have for tonight. The defense did look a little better to me, but the Nets had no shooters and very little talent on the floor. This should've been a much bigger win, but again, it's a process and picking up wins when you're supposed to early in the season is something the Sixers haven't done in the slightest over the past couple of seasons. So far, Eddie Jordan is 3-0 in games the Sixers should've won. Keep that streak alive for the entire season and we're going to the playoffs, no matter what we do against the good teams.

Player of The Game: Lou
Team Record: 3-2
Up Next: @ Detroit, Sunday afternoon. 1 p.m. The Eagles play Sunday night, so no excuses.

Three more quick notes:

Great job in the game thread tonight in my absence.
The Cavs are having serious problems with their offense, even against the hapless Knicks. LeBron scored 33 tonight, and I'd say he hit at least six just ridiculous deep jumpers with a hand in his face. Against the Knicks, the Cavs struggled for open looks for most of the game. Oh, and the Knicks are still pitiful.
Thanks to Rob for the pic from the Wach. Take a close look, that picture wasn't taken during warmups, that's the 100 level during the game.

Sixers vs. the Walking Wounded

2009-11-06T20:00:13Z

Last season the Sixers finished 41-41, 6th in the Eastern Conference, 2 games behind the Miami Heat for 5th. The difference between a first-round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks or the Orlando Magic was two games. If you're looking to point a finger as to why the Sixers dropped to sixth, look not further than the New Jersey Nets. The Sixers were 0-4 against New Jersey, a split of those four games would've made all the difference in the world. Tonight, it's time to make sure history doesn't repeat itself.

The Nets will be without the services of Devin Harris, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Jarvis Hayes, Tony Battie, Yi Jianlian and Keyon Dooling. They're expecting to have only 9 guys dressed for the game. They only have one active point on the roster.

If this game winds up being about winning or losing in the fourth quarter, I will be greatly disappointed. It should be decided early. It should be a blowout before the fourth quarter even starts and we should spend the entire game worrying about things like Holiday's minutes, Willie Green's garbage time shots and a second chance for Jason Smith after a DNPCD.

Early on, keep an eye on the defensive rotations, as usual. Courtney Lee is among the select few who will be active tonight, and he can shoot it. If Iguodala is on him, I expect his impact to be minimal. Rafer Alston is the only PG on the active roster, I'd like to see Jrue and Ivey play the point and extend their pressure into the backcourt to make Alston work. The guy is 33 years-old and I just don't see him being able to handle 30+ minutes of intense pressure.

Sammy needs to handle Brook down low (which sounds like something that would cost you extra at a strip club), and keep him off the offensive glass. Lee, Alston and Williams will all fire from deep, with varying degrees of success, but if the Nets are going to put points on the board, Lopez is the threat.

Short-handed, bereft of talent. This is exactly the type of game the Sixers would lose last season. Let's see if they've turned the page or if they'll play down to their competition, again.

Key to the Game: Defensive rebounding, mainly because the Nets are going to miss so many shots.
If __________________ the Sixers will win: Willie Green plays more than 12 minutes. Extended garbage time is the KPI for the night.

I'm going to have to watch this one on DVR tonight. For the first time in several years I'm going to an NBA game that I don't have a rooting interest in. A friend of mine scored tickets to the Cavs/Knicks game at the Garden. Hopefully LeBron will score 70 and the Cavs will lose. I'll be watching the Sixers when I get home and you can expect a wrap and the rotations chart sometime in the wee hours.

This is your game thread, you guys are on your own tonight.

Stand On Your Own Two Feet

2009-11-06T13:53:25Z

Bob Cooney had an interesting article on Philly.com yesterday and I'd like to talk a little bit about a few points he brought up. It was the first concrete glimpse into the Sixers' defensive scheme that I've seen and I have a few issues with it.

The story does a good job of explaining help and recover, which is a pretty simple principle of helping to stop penetration, then recovering to your man on the perimeter. Eddie Jordan explains it as such:

"You're supposed to be in a help position off the ball," said coach Eddie Jordan following yesterday's practice at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. "There are positions on the floor where you're supposed to be when the ball's on the side of the floor. [Tuesday night] we didn't get those positions. The most important thing in help defense is your posture. Are you standing the right way? Second of all is your positioning. Are you in the right position when the ball is on the wing or in the corner or at the top? And then there's your vision. Are you seeing the ball and your man? Those are the most important things in help defense."

It's a sound theory, especially if you have deficient defenders at a couple of positions. It allows you to draw on the defensive abilities of the entire unit to collectively keep opponents out of the paint. The problem, as far as I can tell, is two-fold: (1) It's used far too much with this team. (2) The priorities. Let me explain.

Help defense, on the entire team level, is kind of a nebulous idea. Honestly, it's like the defensive equivalent of the Princeton offense. A ton of reading and reacting, constantly hedging against a teammate getting beaten off the dribble. Attention split between your man, and the man with the ball. That split favoring the ball rather than your man the further your man is from the ball. As I said above, it's an excellent way to cover up for the weaker defenders on your squad, and it's also an excellent option when you're playing a team who can't shoot, like the Sixers. Someone actually brought a similar point to this up in the comments the other day, and it makes sense.

Think about consequences for a second. In practice every day, the Sixers play against the Sixers. They run this helping defense, and their primary concern (penetration) is exactly what the offense is trying to do, for the most part. Over-helping may lead to an open look, but it's more than likely going to be an open look for a guy who's shooting 30% from three. Now apply the same principles to a game against the Celts or the Magic. It's not going to be Willie Green taking the open three, it's going to be Eddie House, or Ray Allen, and the shot is going to hurt you a lot more.

That's an overly-simplified explanation of the problem, but it should point out to you the fault in running a defensive scheme that calls for all five players to essentially be help defenders. Check out this quote from Jrue:

"I think it's about the rotation," said Holiday. "I think we help too much. I know there were times when I was stuck down low with a big man because I was waiting for my man to come back. Maybe sometimes we need to be a little more selfish and keep our eye on those outside shooters."

That's the point exactly. Personal responsibility. Here's the thing, the Sixers have a few things not too many teams have. They have an elite wing defender, who can take the other team's best offensive threat completely out of the game. They also have two bigs who can block shots in Dalembert and Brand. They don't need to have every player on the floor worried about help defense. They don't really have to have anyone worried about it, but the big closest to the rim. Thad shouldn't be cheating off his man (especially if his man is a legit threat from three) to help stop the driver from getting into the lane. That's Lou's responsibility, initially, and then Sammy's, or Brand's, whoever the big on that side of the floor is.

Think back to any team Pat Riley coached in New York or Miami. They had an insanely simple, yet effective, defensive scheme. His guards pushed their men to their weak hand on the drive, funneling them right into the weak-side help from the shot blocker. Everyone else stuck with their men. The rules have changed to make it harder to force the offensive man in one direction or the other, but the theory should still work. That's what the Sixers need to do.

This over-helping and hedging is also very, very hard to sustain against a team that runs efficient half-court offense and has the ability to hit the three. It's downright suicide against a team whose offense is already designed to free shooters. It's way too easy to get caught out of position, it requires way too much recovery. Patient teams with weapons will pick it apart late in the shot clock. It's time for the Sixers to play to their strengths on defense.

Dalembert and Brand can, and do, handle their business down on the blocks. Nine games out of ten there won't be a gross mismatch on the floor except maybe at the point, but it's time for the Sixers to shift their way of thinking. Penetration alone won't kill them. They have two guys who can alter, block or deter point guards from converting at the tin. The problem with penetration against the Sixers is that you have 5 defenders collapsing down to do the work that Sammy and Brand can handle on their own, leaving their men open on the perimeter to do so. Stay at home, let the bigs take care of the paint and cut off the kick out opportunities if/when penetration occurs.

Rule changes, the level of competition and elaborate offensive schemes make defending extremely hard in the NBA. The Sixers have a leg up on most other teams in their personnel, it's about time they start using that advantage and stop running a scheme that teams with lesser individual talent need to rely on.

This is obviously an overly-simplified look at team defense, but we're talking about the underlying philosophy that dictates how the team handles the finer points, like pick-and-roll defense. Take another look at Jrue's quote above and I'll give you an example. I remember the exact play he's talking about. He was on the weak side, with his man, the ball was outside the three-point line on the strong side. His man sucked down to the baseline, with Rasheed at the elbow on the weak side. Jrue had to hedge against a lob to Sheed and basically stay in the vicinity of the basket because three defenders were hedging to the strong side, worried about penetration. When House made his break for the three-point line, he had to hesitate a second, to make sure Wallace wasn't wide open for a backdoor lob, allow Wallace's man to recover from his help on the strong side. That half-second delay was enough to let Wallace set the down screen and free House for the open look from three. If the Sixers are staying at home on their men, instead of hedging against penetration, Sheed's man is there to prevent the lob and Jrue can stick with House, fight over the screen and be there to contest the shot.

Now this example could also point toward Speights being out of position, helping too early, or just way too far off his man, but I think the problem is exacerbated by a faulty philosophy. If Speights is in Sheed's hip pocket, on the strong side, he's in position to challenge a layup if the ball beats the man on the perimeter, and he's right there to stop the lob. Instead, you've got perimeter guys assuming weak side responsibility on a big and losing a shooter in the process.

Again, it's early, but this is something I'll definitely be keeping my eye on.

In other news, Tom Moore has a good piece on the open competition for the role of first guard off the bench. We really, really need Jrue to step up and take that spot.

PSA: The Ty Lawson Fan Club

2009-11-05T23:33:03Z

This is a quick note about a new rule here at Depressed Fan. Actually, it's pretty much the first rule, but I think it's important for a couple of reasons. From this day forward, all comments regarding Ty Lawson, unless the Sixers are playing the Nuggets, will only be accepted on this post. Explanation after the jump.

The draft is over. Ty Lawson is a Denver Nugget. Jrue Holiday is a Philadelphia 76er. I believe the team made the right decision. Some of you do not. These are all facts. We've spent way too much time debating it, I don't want every post to turn into a "Wow, did you see what Ty Lawson did today," back-and-forth. I'm setting aside this post, and this post only, for people to keep up with Ty Lawson's career and revisit this debate as often as they want. I'm also putting a button on the sidebar so you'll have easy access to it at all times. Any comments on any other posts about Lawson will be moved to this post from this point forward, or just deleted if I don't have the time or energy.

This is 50% about keeping the comments focused on the team and the games at hand and 50% based on my sanity. Thanks, and sorry if it's an inconvenience.

Five Deep

2009-11-05T20:44:55Z

The Sixers have problems which need to be worked out, on both sides of the ball, not the least of which is how to get any kind of consistent production from their bench. A look at a few splits from the first four games after the jump.

I picked a few stats based on perceived trends from the first four game. A few things seem meaningful, but we don't have enough data to draw any concrete solutions. This of these numbers as a good way to look at what's happened up to this point, not as a definitive indicator of what is/is not working.

A few really interesting things to my eye:

Speights + either Brand or Dalembert in the front court has been very effective.
Iguodala has played the two almost exclusively.
The starters have actually been a net plus through the first four games, everyone else...not so much.
One thing not shown here, the starters have been at worst even in their initial runs in all 4 games. They were tied vs. Boston (after 11:57 in the first quarter), they were tied @ Orlando (19-19), and they held leads in the other two games.

I've also uploaded the rotations chart, and I'll continue to update it as the season progresses, just in case you want to do your own analysis. You can find the link the black column on the home page, or just click here.

By the way, the "Speights With" chart above depicts how Speights fared with each player as the second big on the floor with him. So Sammy at the five and Speights at the four, Speights at the five, Brand at the four and so on. Sorry for any confusion.

Three-Point Mirage

2009-11-05T13:33:28Z

Jason Kapono and Rodney Carney were suppose to come in and help the Sixers at least compete from three-point range. Kapono is a marksman of the highest order, Carney is at least league average, which makes him a vast improvement over the guys on the roster. How have these guys helped through the first four games?

I don't want to talk about percentage or differential in the three point category, frankly because that conversation would be too depressing. Instead I just want to look at the raw number of made threes. It's 17, through 4 games (as a point of reference, Danillo Gallinari has made 19 threes, all by himself):

Kapono - 5
Iguodala - 3
Lou - 3
Carney - 2
Jrue - 1
J. Smith - 1
Ivey - 1
Thad - 1

Kapono is the only Sixers averaging more than a made three per game, and honestly, I don't think he's taking enough threes. It's partially his fault for passing up shots with a pump fake and a dribble in for a long two. If you paid attention during the Knicks game, Gallinari did an excellent job of using the pump fake to get his man out of position, then dribbling to the side, still behind the arc, and hitting three from there. I'd like to see more that of that from Kapono, but that's neither here nor there.

At this early point of the season, the Sixers are about .75 threes per game off the arbitrary goal of 5 made threes per game Tony DiLeo set last year. It was a modest goal by any team's standards, yet unattainable on many nights by that squad. This squad was supposed to be better from three, however.

So here's my question to you: Are you worried the three-point shot will continue to be a bugaboo for the Sixers offense?

Game 4 Advanced Stats and the Return to Mediocrity

2009-11-04T17:29:38Z

Needless to say, last night's game threw a monkey wrench into the Sixers advanced stats. A look at the numbers and a statistical oddity after the jump.

The defensive rating has gone from bad to pitiful. The offensive rating is dropping back to pre-Princeton offense levels. Through four games, this is not a pretty picture.

The oddity I mentioned is in the four factors. The Sixers are winning every single one of them except eFG. This isn't really that big of a surprise, considering the team can't defend the three-point line and they can't shoot the deep ball either. I was a little surprised to see that they held an edge in all the other categories, though.

If there's one thing that I'd like to see changed, it's the pace. So far this season, the other team has dictated the pace in every game. Orlando and Boston prefer to play at a slow pace, so the game was played at a slow pace. Milwaukee and New York play fast, so it was a fast pace. The Sixers haven't controlled the tempo of a single game yet. I'd like to see them impose their will on a game at some point.

FPR: Celtics @ Sixers

2009-11-04T06:08:00Z

I'm happy to welcome Mike back for his second season as a contributor to Depressed Fan. You never get the full picture watching at home, that's where the First-Person Report comes from. If you were wondering exactly how annoying the traveling band of loser Celtics fans were, he's got your answer. Enjoy after the jump, and also thanks to frequent reader Rob for the photo above.

PREGAME SHOOTAROUND:

- I know we're in the middle of the World Series & no one cares about the Sixers anyway, but considering the Celtics were in town I thought attendance would be a little better. That's not to say there weren't a ton of green jerseys in the stands. Until '07 the Celtics weren't much of a draw, but all the same people who own pink Red Sox hats were in full force tonight. Between all the Yankee fans I had to deal with across the street on Sunday & all the Boston fans tonight, I wasn't sure how much more I could take.

- Dalembert & Dick Bavetta met up at halfcourt before the game & joked around for a few moments. I noticed last season that just about everyone in the league loves Sammy. I guess if I was an opponent I'd love playing against him too.

- The organization is really trying to sell the fans on nostalgia. They have a new pregame montage set to jazzy swing music with footage of old Sixers. And then the video they played last year, set to the Dark Knight theme music which they play just as the pregame clock is ticking down, now has barely any footage of the current team. The biggest reaction though is still when Iverson steps over Lue in the finals.

- The Celtics, in particular Garnett, absolutely adore Rasheed Wallace, who does the "I have huge balls" dance after the team is introduced.

- Last year Royal Ivey was strangely dancing in the center of the Sixers' pregame huddle. Equally as strange, it seems that this year it's Jrue Holiday. I can't even imagine being in the NBA at 19. Should be an interesting season from him.

ONTO THE GAME:

- Over the past few years it's been adopted as tradition that the bench will stand until its team hits its first basket. Because of a new rule the league passed banning teams from standing in front of the bench, the Celtics all kneel. So if it wasn't before it's now become completely pointless.

- Brand seems okay defensively, but offensively he looks lost. No explosion, no ability to get past any defender. When his jumper isn't going down it's really rough to watch. I know he played okay the other night, but we are probably going to have to get used to 1 out of every 2 games where he just looks old. Not something I thought I'd be saying when he signed that contract.

- I had a perfect angle on Rondo's buzzer beater that he launched over the side of the backboard, and it was utterly ridiculous.

- Eddie House spends a good portion of each timeout gazing into the crowd, I assume to scan for hot chicks. I am always amused by these guys during huddles, and I am now positive that each team has at least 1.

- Phillies' montage in the 2nd Quarter gets a nice response.

- During one of those "get to know the Sixers" pieces they play on the Jumbotron, Jason Kapono is asked to name his favorite singer. His response, Miley Cyrus, because her songs are catchy & "I like to sing along to my girlfriend." I just googled her to confirm that she doesn't turn 17 until later this month. I don't know how the Sixers' let that out in public, during a game, but I am very glad they did.

- It's always interesting for me when Speights plays against Sheed, because ideally that's the type of player I'd like to see him evolve into. Sheed was hot from beyond the arc tonight, and I have a feeling if Eddie Jordan ever let him Speights' range would extend that far too. I don't think Speights has his basketball IQ, but I hope there is something he can learn from his game.

- Chants for Brian Scalabrine were started by a row of young Sixers' fans behind the basket, which led to a pretty funny moment when the small crowd still left erupted when he was finally introduced with about 6 minutes left in the game. Not sure how I would feel if I was Scalabrine, the only player in the NBA with noticeable beer gut. Who am I kidding, that dude is having the time of his life.

- I know everyone will be disheartened by this loss, but keep in mind that before the season Doc Rivers said he wanted his team to become one of the greatest defensive teams of all-time. Not that the Sixers are a great barometer, but judging by tonight they are well on their way. No doubt the Sixers were cold. Thad had one of the roughest shooting nights I've ever seen from him. A lot of that however, especially in the first half, was due to Boston's terrific defense. What does worry me is the inconsistent play of Brand. Additionally, it doesn't look like anyone on this team knows what their role is. It takes more than 4 games to adjust to a new coach, but I'm not sure this is something Jordan can fix.