Dev Weather

The End is the Begining

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 01:02:00 +0000

As of today, DevWeather will cease its blogging operations. We will continue as a twitter feed, and continue to respond to all questions emailed to us and given to us on Quora.

Thank you, this past year has been a great experience.

DW

Asia Update #47: Heavy Rains Slam China, Southeast Asia

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 23:38:00 +0000

Heavy rainfall returned to China, although it shifted further north, flooding remains a major concern. In southeast Asia, onshore flow out of the South China Sea continued pump moisture into Laos and Vietnam causing localized flooding. Rainfall is starting to taper off across south Asia as the season is coming to a close.

Flooding rains from two weeks ago continued into this past week across China. Heavy rainfall soaked the region stretching from just west of Wuhan towards Qingdao. Flooding has remained isolated, and generally away from areas impacted by the last round of heavy rain, although there is some overlap in the area north of the Yangtze. Light rains are expected to continue into next week from the Yangtze river southward. Providing an opportunity for clean up.

In southeast Asia, moisture has continued to flow in from off the South China sea, causing flooding along the northern Vietnam coast, and areas westward into Laos. Lighter rainfall has benefited the rest of Vietnam, Laos and into northern Cambodia. Lighter, but consistent rainfall has continued across Thailand and Burma.

In India rainfall has begun tapering off across the country, as well as Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. In Pakistan all significant precipitation has pulled out. Moisture deficits have not been completely erased from Bhutan, Bangladesh and northeast India. The most significant deficits have been pushed back into Arunachal Pradesh, with more minor deficits radiating out into Assam and other Indian states as well as eastern Bangladesh, Bhutan and northern Burma. It is now highly unlikely that these deficits will be made up, but ultimately this will not cause major damage nationally to India or Burma's crop production. Bhutan and Bangladesh will have a noticeable drop in food availability.

Seasonably dry weather expected to continue across the Middle East.

Africa Update #47: Heavy rainfall continues across central Africa

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 01:25:00 +0000

Precipitation continued to come down heavily from eastern Niger down to Lake Victoria. Meanwhile season-long deficits are starting to get too high to ignore across Cote d'Ivorie and Ethiopia. Continued poor rainfall in North Sudan and Eritrea has caused major damage to cropping activities. Most of west Africa, however has maintained good ground moisture throughout the season.

Heavy rainfall soaked a section of Africa covering eastern Niger, Chad, western North Sudan, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Uganda and western Kenya. The precipitation is welcome across most areas, but in Uganda and western Kenya, the excessive moisture has triggered localized flooding, especially close to Lake Victoria. The lake itself has not flooded, but the small rivers and marshes near Lake Victoria have become inundated with water flowing towards the lake.

The heavy downpours in central Africa, have pulled moisture away from locations further east. Eritrea, and nearby parts of North Sudan, have had poor here all season long. In Ethiopia rainfall has been well distributed, but sub-par. The past two weeks have ended hopes of making a season that had below-average rains make up for it with well distributed moisture. Minor crop damage is now likely scattered across the country.

In the west rainfall has declined too, however it will take a more extended period of dryness to make substantial dent into what has been a relatively good season. The major exceptions to this are Cote d'Ivorie and Nigeria. In Cote d'Ivorie, rainfall began slacking off in August, and that has continued into September. This is putting subsistence farming and the cocoa crop at risk. In Nigeria, rainfall has actually improved from early season deficits, receiving moderate rainfall that has spilled over from the higher totals that have fallen further east.

Latin America #46: Heavy rain, possible flooding in southern Brazil

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 01:12:00 +0000

Heavy precipitation has caused flooding in southern Brazil. Moderate rains have continued to pound Guatemala and Mexico, as dry conditions creep into Honduras and points southward in Central America. Rains have continued steadily across northern South America.

Very heavy rain fell in the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina triggering widespread flooding and putting 10 towns underwater. It is very likely that additional towns will be flooded. 500,000 people have been affected and numerous fatalities have been reported. Damage is widespread and the clean up- once the rains stop- will take months. Light rainfall is likely to persist into the coming week.

Moderate rainfall in Guatemala and Mexico has continued benefit crops. Drought in Mexico has been pushed back out of the Yucatan as well as back from Veracruz and into the Central Highlands. Lee, which made landfall this past week, caused very minor damage, but brought needed moisture into the central parts of Mexico. Relief is still need from north of Mexico City all the way to the Rio Grande. Meanwhile a persistent dry patch in central Honduras has continued to be problematic, it's not severe yet, but moisture needs to make its way into the central valleys around the capital. Patchy dryness also continues in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

South America has continued to have a typical season with moderate rainfall from Colombia eastward towards French Guiana, and only scattered dryness in Amazonas state in northern Brazil. Seasonal precipitation has also continued across Uruguay and Paraguay as well as nearby parts of Brazil and Argentina, with the exception of Santa Catarina and the aforementioned flooding.

Asia Update #46: Moisture Moves into Vietnam and Causes Flooding in China

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 00:24:00 +0000

Rainfall has pushed into Vietnam from the South China Sea, some of the moisture made it as far inland as Laos and Cambodia. Precipitation has continued steadily from Thailand westward across south Asia. Moisture deficits in China increased only in the coastal regions, further inland a flooding event has cause fatalities and destroyed property.

Moisture has begun flowing into eastern parts of southeast Asia. The rain was needed, although not desperately, and will improve ground moisture in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. What allowed this to happen is winds over the South China Sea have shifted westward bring warm moist air into the region. Further west, Thailand and Burma continue to have plentiful amounts of precipitation. However, in northern Burma, near the India and Bangladesh border, has not had as plentiful amounts of rainfall, and season-long deficits remain problematic. More recently there has been a change for the better.

That same dry area extends northward out of Burma and into northeast India and eastern parts of Bangladesh. Last week deficits in this region ticked slightly upward as below average amounts of moisture made its way in from the Bay of Bengal. The rest of India, and western parts of Bangladesh continue to see what deficits remain drop, including the greater Delhi area. The area around the capital has had season-long deficits, although those have been dropping over the last several weeks. Last week heavy rainfall from here southward towards Mumbai and Pune caused localized flooding, though nothing severe and I have seen no reports of damage.

The southern coast of China continued to see deficits climb, from Shanghai southward towards the border with Vietnam. Interior areas, however, got slammed with very heavy rainfall, which have triggered widespread floods. Moisture that had pushed its way into southeast Asia, also surged northward. An area of especially heavy rainfall in moved into the area north of the Yangtze river, has causing major flooding along the regions rivers. Additional moisture is expected to move into this region during the coming week, and that will likely cause additional floods.

Tropical Storms Maria and Nate are likely to Strengthen and make Landfall

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 15:24:00 +0000

Let's start with Nate, not a particularly well organized system, it developed over the Gulf of Campeche and has drifted around the gulf ever since. At the moment it nearly stationary for the last six hours. That's about to change as the storm is starting to get pushed westward towards the Mexican coast. As it has wandered around, Nate has caused some minor flooding along the coastal parts of Campeche and Tabasco states. With it's westward trajectory Nate will pull away from these areas and head towards Veracruz state, gaining strength as it goes. It will have winds as fast as 100 mph (160 km/h) when the storm center passes near the city of Poza Rica on Sunday afternoon. Heavy rainfall will likely also impact Hidalgo, Puebla and Tiaxcala. The wet weather from the storm will also make its way into the Mexico City metro area. Nate will bring drought relief to these areas, and other than along the immediate coast should be beneficial.

Maria, currently well out in the Atlantic, is heading towards the Leeward Islands, and is likely to move through the archipelago during the coming weekend as a tropical storm. There is a slight chance that as it passes through the island chain that Maria will achieve hurricane status, however it is more likely that hurricane status will not be achieved until after it moves to the north of Puerto Rico. Islands from Dominica northward to Puerto Rico will experience moderate winds and heavy rain. After exiting the Leeward Islands, Maria could clip the Turks & Caicos as well as the Bahamas. Landfall is possible in the United States, perhaps in areas impacted by Irene, such as North Carolina, Virgina and Maryland states.

Africa Update #46: Rainfall Pattern Flips

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 23:57:00 +0000

Thus far this season, precipitation has been plentiful from the Nigeria-Benin border westward, with a few isolated exceptions. Meanwhile, eastward from that point, rainfall has been generally lacking, with a few exceptions. This arrangement of precipitation has flipped around this axis suddenly, and for the most part, that is a good thing.

Precipitation has generally been favorable in west Africa, at times there have been flooding events, but they have been widely scattered and remained localized. The last seven days have seen what had been abundant rainfall turn into light to moderate rains across the region. This, if it is short lived, will be good for crops. It allows people to get into the fields to conduct weeding and other work that is better done during dry weather. A few areas, however, continued to see week-long surpluses, mainly in central Mali and nearby areas of Burkina Faso. Also, seeing a less severe drop off in moisture, are the west and south coasts. Here moisture has been slightly off, especially along the Gulf of Guinea coast, and so maintaining near normal rainfall in these areas is more important than an opportunity to do field work.

The eastern areas of the Sahel have generally had below average precipitation this season, but in concert with the west, here too there has been a u-turn. Heavy rain blanketed most of the region with the exception of eastern North Sudan extending into much of Eritrea, as well as a swath of central Chad southward into northern Central African Republic. The rains are likely too late to help out with long season crops, but shorter cycle grains will greatly benefit from this precipitation.

One area of ongoing concern that has been on the dry side for much of the season is western Niger, along the river of the same name. This region, the breadbasket of Niger, has had below normal rainfall all season long. Although the greater regions abundant rainfall this season will mitigate things, this will put upward pressure on markets in the region. Also of concern is secretive Eritrea, where season-long below average rains have likely caused crops to fail, but because the government does not broadcast such information, and few outsiders are allowed in, there have been no ground reports on crop conditions. Eritrea having problems with food availability could compound, complicate and allow for the spread of the Somali Famine.

In the north, moisture remains plentiful in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia as seasonal light rains continue. Libya remains seasonably dry, although the sowing season is approaching, and a continuation of the civil war into that period will complicate farming activities.

Latin America Update #45: Very large dipole set up across Latin America

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 01:23:00 +0000

Moisture remains plentiful around the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, excessively so in southern Guatemala. This extra moisture has pushed back the drought in Mexico. In South America, around the greater Pampas and Rio de la Plata basin area, has been dry this past week.

Rain is coming down in buckets across most of the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America. The precipitation has been particularly heavy in Guatemala, where flooding has been reported in the south. The only area not seeing excessive moisture is the east coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and parts of Panama, where for the most part moisture is slightly below normal. These areas are generally either uninhabited or not significantly dependent on agriculture. Colombia and Venezuela are also continuing to do well, although rainfall has been consistently moderate here. To the north the Mexican drought has been eased, although it remains severe, especially near the United States border.

Further south northern Brazil, Guyana and Suriname had a dry week, as have Uruguay, Paraguay and nearby parts of Brazil and Argentina. None of this dryness is critical as it only represents one week in what has generally been a good season.

Asia Update #45: Nanmadol brings short-term relief to southeast China

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 00:57:00 +0000

The remnants of Typhoon Nanmodol have slightly reduced the rainfall deficit in southern China. Meanwhile south Asia continues to rebound, with areas of significant rainfall deficits restricted to greater Delhi, and northeast India. Poor rainfall in parts of southeast Asia is a growing problem as moisture has not been moving onshore from the South China Sea.
Typhoon Nanmodal soaked parts of southeastern China last week, bringing additional relief to the region. Nanmodol also made landfall in southern Taiwan, after clipping Luzon in the Philippines. The added rainfall will help improve moisture conditions, but it won't be until winter that there will be a sign of significant turnaround. If this winter, the snowpack starts building across the regions headwaters, then conditions will improve and the 2012 growing season would be closer to normal.

A lack of (preferably weak) typhoons moving into southeast Asia, from the South China Sea, has continued to allow deficits to climb across Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Some weak onshore flow has kept those deficits at bay thus far, but without westbound tropical systems, river levels may drop to critical levels. Elsewhere, Burma and Thailand have had a generally productive growing season with moisture abundant and flooding events kept to a minimum.

Most of India, Bangladesh and other nearby countries have recovered from earlier deficits. Only northeast India, and adjacent parts of Bangladesh and Bhutan remain seriously in the red. The area west of Delhi, mainly in Haryana has also had continuing problems with precipitation. Nepal has generally recovered from its earlier poor totals, while Pakistan has had well distributed near normal rainfall throughout the season.

Africa Update #45: Moisture Returns to Gulf of Guinea Coast

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:36:00 +0000

Moisture is picking up, and deficits are dropping, all along the Gulf of Guinea coast. Precipitation was light this past week in marginal parts of North Sudan and Chad. Across the rest of the Sahel and Ethiopia, rainfall has continued to be reasonably consistent. Seasonable rains continue in the Atlas Mountains, as dry weather continues over most of Libya.

After two weeks of almost no rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea coast, precipitation has slowly picked up again this week across Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Liberia. Cote d'Ivorie still hasn't returned to normal, but some moisture has already returned. Temperatures did not rise as fast as they could have, and damage to crops, and cases of heat stroke attributed to the dry spell, are likely to be very widely scattered if they are present at all. Rainfall deficits have already started dropping and that trend is likely to continue. In land areas of Nigeria, however, continue to have widespread deficits. Here scattered areas of wilted crops are likely and concerns of the overall harvest are likely to stick out. This is not part of the issues with the Gulf of Guinea dryness, but more an issue with poor early season rains. As moisture has picked up since then, shorter cycle crops, and late planted long cycle crops should generally be unaffected.

North Sudan and Chad continue to have small to moderate rainfall deficits. This past week saw poorer totals in Darfur, North Sudan and areas north of N'Djamena, Chad. The worst of the dryness is in North Sudan and over the border into western Eritrea. Eritrea is contending with drought, however the government there is rather secretive and little is known about the drought. Ethiopia meanwhile has experienced a rainy season with well distributed rainfall and if precipitation totals have been slightly off, there should be no major consequences.

In the Sahel, the only location of significant concern is western Niger, near Niamey. Here rainfall started off the season poor, and has had the occasional dry spell. The area is not large, but it is the breadbasket of Niger, and a slight disruption here, could have larger consequences.

North Africa has had as typical a season as can be imagined. Moisture has remained steady in the Atlas Mountains from Morocco through Algeria and into Tunisia. Meanwhile, Libya has remained seasonably dry.

Nanmadol soaks Taiwan, heading for China

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 02:19:00 +0000

Severely weakened Nanmadol has crossed over southern Taiwan yesterday, causing flooding, damage to infrastructure and a few fatalities. The damage is mainly focused in Taiwan's far southern counties and cities. The storm is now in the straits that separate Taiwan from Mainland China. The storms third, and likely final, landfall will occur in the next 12 hours in Fujian province. Although the damage, which will be minor, won't be welcome, the rainfall is badly needed in southern China which continues to suffer from long-term drought. Jianxi and Guangdong provinces may also get a bump in ground moisture as Nanmadol moves inland. The Philippines, where the storm left major damage late last week, continues to clean-up.

Latin America Update #44: Canicula Overwith in Central America

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 02:02:00 +0000

The mid-summer easing of the rains, better known as the Canicula, has passed in Central America. Hispaniola, and nearby islands, continue to clean-up after Hurricane Irene passed them. Venezuela is either having a major flooding event, or major problems with its rain gauges, I'm going with the latter. Precipitation continues to be plentiful in the Pampas along the Rio de la Plata.

The break in the rains that separates the Primera growing season, from the Postrera growing season, has occured. The end of the Canicula means that rainfall will now shift back to the Pacific side of the subcontinent. Thus far the season has progressed well, although the Nicaragua Atlantic provinces and Costa Rica have been a little dry, but nothing severe. Hispaniola, mainly Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas have begun the clean-up process from Hurricane Irene, which ripped up the region.

Venezuelas rain gauge network has gone off the wall. After under reporting for weeks, it has now over reported, causing a massive bulls-eye across both itself and Colombia. That bulls-eye is not realistic in anyway. Seasonable conditions continue in Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. Dry weather persists in Colombia along the border with Brazil, and into the Brazilian state of Amazonas.

To the south rainfall continues along the Rio de la Plata basin, with moisture plentiful across Uruguay with lighter totals in nearby parts of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.

Asia Update #44: Drought relief on the way for southern China

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 01:11:00 +0000

Typhoon Nanmodal, now weakened, may provide some drought relief for coastal sections of southern China. Taiwan and the Philippines, however have taken the brunt of the storm. South and southeast Asia continue to see better rainfall totals and better rainfall distribution. Seasonably dry weather continues in the Middle East.

Typhoon Nanmodal slammed into the Philippines, causing flooding and storm surge problems across Luzon. As of now 10 people are reported dead, but that number could rise. Manila seems to have been largely spared. Nanmodal is now approaching Taiwan, and the storms remnants will likely cross the straits into mainland China, where rainfall is desperately needed. That makes Nanmadal a welcomed visitor in mainland China.

Moisture has continued to be plentiful across Burma and Thailand. There have also been notable improvements across parts of Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. These areas are generally reliant on (preferably) weak typhoons coming in from the east. Those have not been common at all this season. Unusual inflow of moisture from the west has held off any drought.

Another place where moisture is being welcomed, is India, Nepal and Bangladesh, where rainfall has brought most of south Asia close to the normal range. Heavy precipitation, this past week, stretched from Konkan & Goa east towards Orissa. With rainfall close to normal across almost all of the subcontinent, the harvest has a very good chance of being near normal across most of the region.

Seasonably dry weather continues across the Middle East, although typical showers along the Black and Caspian Seas, have been slightly heavier than normal. This likely will have no significant impact on Iran or Turkey.

Typhoon Nanmadol closes in on Taiwan

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 00:09:00 +0000

Typhoon Nanmadol is going to make landfall on Taiwan during the next few hours. The counties of Taitung and Pingtung along with the cities of Kaohsiung Tainan will be the most severely impacted. Nanmadol has winds in excess of 90 mph (145 km/h) and is likely to maintain that until landfall. After passing Taiwan, Namadol will be much weaker, but may still managed a second landfall in mainland China. In the Philippines clean-up has begun as Namadol's heavy rainfall causing flooding and winds caused a very destructive storm surge. More than 10 people are now being reported dead in the Philippines and that number is likely to rise.

Typhoon Nanmadol pounds the Philippines, heading for Taiwan

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 16:55:00 +0000

Typhoon Nanmadol has lost some strength over the last 24 hours, but it is still one of the strong storms so far in 2011. Currently it is battering northeastern Luzon in the Philippines with winds over 125 mph (200 km/h). As it pulls away from the Philippines it will regain a bit of intensity, before a possible landfall on Taiwan. If Nanmadol misses Taiwan, which is possible, landfall is almost certain to occur somewhere along the southeast China coast. At the moment Shanghai is not a likely target of the typhoon. Right now flooding, rough surf and high winds are battering the Philippines and that will continue for the next 12 to 18 hours before wind and rain start to rise in intensity across Taiwan.

Typhoon Nanmadol to clip Luzon, head for Taiwan

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 11:36:00 +0000

Typhoon Nanmadol, which so far had been wobbling around east of the Philippines, is now a major storm. With winds estimated at 149 mph (241 km/h), the storm is slowly making its way towards northeastern Luzon in the Philippines. At the moment, landfall is possible (though not likely) in the sparsely populated northeastern areas of the island. Nanmadol's effects, however, will continue to be felt across much of the Philippines. After clearing the Philippines, the storm will make its way towards Taiwan, but here also, landfall is unlikely. Flooding, rough seas, and high winds are likely to contribute to fatalities, erosion and property damage in the Philippines and Taiwan.

Africa Update #44: Improvement over the Sahel, Rains Faulter near Gulf of Guinea

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 22:33:00 +0000

Improved moisture has all but eliminated precipitation deficits in Niger and Chad, although concerns still linger about dryness in North and South Sudan. Precipitation has almost shut off across some Gulf of Guinea countries and ground moisture remains anomalously low across Nigeria. In the east, precipitation remains steady over Ethiopia. Seasonable hot and dry weather continues in Libya.

Moderate to heavy rainfall across Niger and Chad has all but eliminated rainfall deficits from earlier in the season. Places like Mali and Burkina Faso never really had any deficits to begin with, so the added moisture has padded their totals without causing any widespread flooding concerns. North and South Sudan, primarily the North, has not had quite enough moisture for crops. The deficits aren't severe, and could be corrected, although time is short as the rains will soon begin their seasonal retreat southward. Heavy rainfall may have caused flooding last week along the Mali-Senegal border. Upwards of 200 mm (8 inches) of rainfall inundated the area.

Meanwhile, from Nigeria along the coast to Sierra Leone, precipitation has been somewhat off. In Nigeria rainfall has been suppressed all season long, although not severely enough to raise major concerns, but not minor enough that it can be ignored. Scattered and isolated crop failures are possible if moisture doesn't improve. The other countries, primarily Cote d'Ivorie, Ghana and southern parts of Togo and Benin, have had precipitation cut off sharply. It's normal for rainfall to decrease slightly here as the rains peak further north, however a sharp end to the rains could do damage to crops if temperatures get hot. Thus far temperatures have risen slightly, but not to extreme values.

Rainfall has continued across the highlands of Ethiopia. Rainfall has been sufficient and well distributed throughout the season.

Libya is typically hot and dry this time of year, and weather is not expected to play a significant role in the ongoing battle for Tripoli. Heat exhaustion and dehydration remain the biggest threats (weather wise) to civilians and military personnel.

Irene Stengthening, Moving Slowly Through the Bahamas

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 14:18:00 +0000

Hurricane Irene has continued to strengthen during its trek through the Bahamas. Now with winds approaching 115 mph (185 km/h), the storm is causing major damage to the island chain. Flooding, damage to infrastructure and numerous fatalities have all been reported and more such reports are likely as the storm is only half way through the island chain. Irene is also moving very slowly, and that is causing the impacts from the storm to be more extensive. That slow movement is expected to end as the storm will begin to accelerate towards the United States east coast during the next 12 hours. The Outer Banks and Long Island are the most likely landfall locations.

Please keep in mind the United States is not part of our coverage area, and for details please see the United States National Hurricane Center.

Irene continues to rip up Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 14:23:00 +0000

Hurricane Irene has maintained moderate strength, with winds approaching 110 mph (176 km/h). The storm is now making its way out of the Turks & Caicos and into the southern Bahamas. Very little has changed since our last update, although the track has shifted slightly to the east. The two island chains are currently experiencing high wind, heavy rain, and rough surf. This will cause large scale damage to infrastructure, significant beach erosion and unfortunately will cause fatalities. Some islands may briefly become entirely submerged as a result of the storm surge. After exiting the Bahamas, Hurricane Irene will likely clip the Outer Banks and other coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic, before landfall in New England. This storm is still gaining strength and could peak with winds over 120 mph ( 190 km/h).

Latin America Update #43: Two tropical systems impact the Caribbean Basin

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 02:07:00 +0000

Harvey and Irene smashed through Central America and Caribbean islands. Meanwhile moisture improves across northern South America, and in the south of the continent, seasonable rainfall continues across the Rio de la Plata basin in the Pampas.

It's been an active week for tropical systems around the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Harvey developed to the northeast of Nicaragua, and moved due west skimming the northern Honduras coast and making landfall in Belize before dumping heavy rainfall across northern Guatemala and nearby areas in Mexico. As Harvey spun out it's last energy over the Bay of Campeche, Irene was developing just to the southeast of the Virgin Islands. Irene gained strength quickly and made landfall on the eastern side of Puerto Rico. As it emerged on the northern side of Puerto Rico, Irene rapidly became a hurricane. It then grazed both the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Currently Hurricane Irene has winds over 90 mph (145 km/h), and is moving through the Turks & Caicos. Irene moves through the Bahamas during the next 24 hours and the storm will increase in strength. After exiting the island chain, Irene will take aim on the United States.

In South America things have been very quiet, rainfall is striking more of a balance across the north, including Venezuela and Colombia, where things had been somewhat dry. I'm beginning to distrust the data coming out of Venezuela. I'm not sure what has been happening, but the rain gauges in the country have not been matching well with the gauges in nearby countries, nor satellite data.

In the south, winter crop production continues to look good across Argentina, Paraguay, southern Brazil and Uruguay. Precipitation has been well distributed and sufficient for crops and pastures.

Irene to miss Hispaniola, slam Turks and Caicos along with the Bahamas

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 11:33:00 +0000

Hurricane Irene is now expected to miss both Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Instead, the storm will move through the Turks and Caicos, along with the Bahamas. Wind speeds are now approaching that of a moderate Hurricane, and it will move through the islands as a very powerful storm. Damage to infrastructure, flooding and fatalities are very likely here. On Hispaniola, which is now expected to get a passing blow, heavy rains and rough surf is probably the extent to which Haiti and the Dominican Republic will be hit; with the Dominican Republic taking the brunt of the storm.

After clearing the islands, the storm is likely to brush the United States state of Florida, before making landfall in either North or South Carolina state. Hurricane Irene will likely still be very strong at that time.

Irene Shifts northward, Hispaniola Still at Risk

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 11:44:00 +0000

Instead of slipping to the south of Puerto Rico, Tropical Storm Irene is now in the process of passing over the island. Once the storm emerges, it will no longer be heading towards Santo Domingo, but instead the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Irene is expected to remain a tropical storm during its approach and landfall on Hispanoila, although there is a 50/50 chance that no landfall will take place and that Irene will simply pass between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos before grazing the western Bahamas. The east coast of the United States state of Florida is now the most likely to take the brunt of the storm as Irene may be a weak hurricane by the time it reaches the United States.

Asia Update #43: Much of Asia Coming into Balance

noreply@blogger.com (DevWeather) — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 01:20:00 +0000

Moisture deficits are falling across most of Asia, with the exception of southern China. South and southeast Asia continue to get pounded with rainfall, and that is likely to continue. The area around the Yellow Sea in both China and both Koreas has seen greatly improved rainfall. Next week should be very wet across most of Asia.

Heavy rainfall pounded India's Gangetic Plain this week, bring localized flooding to much of northern India. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal are also contending with the excessive precipitation. Perhaps the most important rainfall, however, fell in northeast India, where most states have seen high deficits. Those areas have been trending wetter more recently, and those deficits are now just outside what would be an acceptable, but still unusually dry, growing season.

While not having as dramatic and increase in precipitation, moisture has been increasing across southeast Asia. Burma has watched deficits plunge along with northeast India and Bangladesh. Some of that moisture is now spilling into northern Thailand and down to the coast of Cambodia. Laos and Vietnam have not seen the same cranking up of moisture, but those countries typically receive moisture from the South China Sea in the form of (usually weak) tropical cyclones. Those have not been as plentiful this year as they typically are.

China meanwhile continues to contend with a major drought across its southern regions. There does appear to be some relief on the way over the next seven days. This week, however rainfall has been concentrated around the Yellow Sea, bringing moderate rainfall to the northeast China coastal areas, along with North and South Korea.

Irene heading for Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 16:41:00 +0000

Tropical Storm Irene formed late yesterday just east of the Lesser Antilles. The storm is expected to pass through the Leeward Islands on its way towards the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. Irene may be a weak hurricane by then, and does have the potential to make landfall near Santo Domingo. From there Irene will continue westward over Haiti, possibly making landfall on Cuba. From there the storm will turn northward, possibly threatening the city of Miami in the United States. It is still early in Irene's development and this trajectory could change significantly. However, Santo Domingo, and all of Hispaniola are currently the most likely place to take the full brunt of the storm.

Tropical Storm Harvey threatens Honduras, Belize

noreply@blogger.com (Eric Wolvovsky) — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 00:20:00 +0000

Tropical Storm Harvey just formed in the Caribbean Sea. The storm will not strengthen significantly, but is very likely to make landfall within the next 24 hours in central Belize, after running along the northern coast of Honduras. The storm is rather weak, and although it is possible that Harvey will reach hurricane strength, it is unlikely. The storm will pass near Belize City, probably missing the city to the north. After crossing Belize, Harvey may hold together long enough to cross Petén department in Guatemala after which it would cross into Mexico, most likely Chiapas and Tabasco states. Any moisture that arrives in these areas would be welcome as most of Mexico is still trying to pull its way out of a drought. The Petén department is very sparsely populated, and no severe weather expected there anyway. Thus Belize will be taking the brunt of this storm. Damage will consist primarily of beach erosion, although even that is not likely to be significant given how weak Tropical Storm Harvey.