The Diageo | Hotline Poll

Obama Job Approval Rating Drops Nine Points

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, July 15, 2009 - The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 U.S. registered voters conducted by FD from July 9-13, 2009, finds that the percentage of American voters who approve of the job President Obama is doing has dropped nine points to 56%. The previous Diageo/ Hotline Poll, conducted from June 4-7, found that 65% of voters approved of the job he was doing.

Obama's Job Approval Ratings

With 56% of voters approving of the job he is doing, the Poll finds President Obama's job approval rating is at its lowest level recorded in the six monthly Diageo/Hotline Polls since President Obama took office.

President Obama's Job Approval Ratings - January - Present

Interestingly, compared to June, the decrease in Obama's job approval ratings is being driven primarily by decreases among male voters (-15 points), Independent voters (-15 points), and rural voters (-15 points).

President Obama's Job Approval Ratings among Males, Independent Voters and Rural Voters

Other Key Opinion Metrics Seeing Dips

The Poll also finds that the percentage of voters who say that "things are seriously off on the wrong track" has increased 12 percentage points from a record-low of 43% in last month's Poll to 55% in today's Poll.

Furthermore, recent shifts in the public's confidence in Obama to "bring real change to the way things are done in Washington, D.C." indicate a dip in confidence among voters. In the February Poll, a record-high of 70% of voters indicated that they were confident in Obama to bring real change, compared with 56% four months later in today's Poll. This current confidence rating of 56% also represents a nine-point percentage drop since the June Poll (65%).

Additionally, in looking ahead to 2012, the Poll finds that 42% of voters say they would vote to re-elect President Obama, while 39% say they would vote for someone else. The June Poll found that 46% of voters said they would vote to re-elect President Obama and 30% of voters would vote for someone else.

Decreasing Levels of Confidence in the Stimulus Package

The Diageo/Hotline Poll also finds a significant decrease in voter confidence in the stimulus plan passed in February. Specifically, the Poll finds only 39% of voters are confident the stimulus plan will be successful in turning around the economy, a decrease of 13 percentage points from the 52% of voters who expressed confidence in June.

Commenting on the connection between the drop in President Obama's job approval numbers and decreased confidence in the stimulus plan, Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline noted that, "To revise the infamous Colin Powell ‘Pottery Barn' rule, President Obama didn't break the economy, but he now owns it."

Strong Opposition to Additional Stimulus and Quicker Recovery vs. More Debt

In the context of decreasing levels of confidence in the current stimulus package, coupled with discussion about the viability of another one, the Poll shows very little support for a proposal for another stimulus package, with only 36% saying they would support such a proposal and 52% saying they would oppose it, with 40% saying they would strongly oppose it.

At the same time, it is clear that concerns over the prospect of greater deficits trump concerns over economic recovery. When given the choice, voters would prefer a slower economic recovery that incurs smaller deficits than a quicker economic recovery with greater deficits. Specifically, 71% of voters say they would choose a slower economic recovery with a lower deficit, compared with 23% of voters who say they would prefer a quicker recovery with a higher deficit.

Congressional Ratings

A closer look at congressional ratings reveals that the approval ratings of both parties in Congress have suffered drops since the June Poll. Specifically, Congressional Democrats' approval ratings have dropped 8 percentage points from 49% in the June Poll to 41% in today's Poll. What's more, approval ratings of Republicans in Congress have decreased 9 percentage points from 38% in the June Poll to 29% in today's Poll.

Congressional Approval Ratings in June and July

Despite several shifts in public opinion since last month, the generic ballot between Democrats and Republicans in Congress has not experienced a notable change from recent past polls. The Democrats still lead Republicans in the generic ballot, with 39% of voters indicating that they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 32% for the Republican candidate, (compared with 39% and 30% in the June Poll, respectively).

To obtain complete Poll results, please see www.diageohotlinepoll.com.

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Selin Kent at (212) 850-5735 or Selin.Kent@fd.com.

Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from July 9 - 13, 2009, among a random, representative sample of 800 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

About Diageo: Diageo (Dee-AH-Gee-O) is the world's leading premium drinks business with an outstanding collection of beverage alcohol brands across spirits, wines, and beer categories. These brands include Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, J&B, Baileys, Cuervo, Tanqueray, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards wines. Diageo is a global company, trading in more than 180 countries around the world. The company is listed on both the New York Stock Exchange (DEO) and the London Stock Exchange (DGE). For more information about Diageo, its people, brands, and performance, visit us at Diageo.com. For our global resource that promotes responsible drinking through the sharing of best practice tools, information and initiatives, visit DRINKiQ.com. Celebrating life, every day, everywhere. For more information about Diageo, its people, brands, and performance, visit us at www.diageo.com.

About The Hotline & National Journal Group: The Hotline is National Journal's daily briefing on politics. National Journal Group Inc. is a leading publisher of magazines, newsletters, books and directories for people who have a professional interest in politics, policy and government. Based in Washington, D.C., National Journal Group Inc. is committed to providing publications and services that are non-partisan, reliable and of the highest quality. www.nationaljournal.com

About FD: One of the most highly regarded consultancies in the communications industry, FD employs more than 750 staff and advises more than 1000 clients worldwide through its hub offices in London and New York, as well as its network of wholly-owned offices in Bahrain, Beijing, Bogota, Boston, Brussels, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Los Angeles, Manchester, Melbourne, Moscow, Panama City, Paris, San Francisco, Shanghai, Sydney and Washington, DC. With a 20 year history of advising clients in both the private and public sectors, FD's services include financial public relations, capital markets communications, public affairs, crisis and issues management and corporate, business-to-business and business-to-consumer communications. FD is also a market leader in M&A advisory work. FD is structured around specialist sector teams operating on an international basis, covering consumer industries, financial services, basic industries, business services, life sciences & healthcare, media, real estate, technology and telecommunications. FD is a division of FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN), the global business advisory firm. For more information, please visit www.fd.com.

About FTI Consulting: FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business advisory firm dedicated to helping organizations protect and enhance enterprise value in an increasingly complex legal, regulatory and economic environment. With more than 3,000 professionals located in most major business centers in the world, we work closely with clients every day to anticipate, illuminate, and overcome complex business challenges in areas such as investigations, litigation, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory issues, reputation management and restructuring. www.fticonsulting.com

High Public Support for Major Overhaul of Health Care

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, June 10, 2009 - With President Obama's push for health care reform stirring debate about the costs of a plan, the Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from June 4 - 7, 2009, finds that the majority of voters support a major overhaul of health care.

High Public Support & A Sense of Urgency for Health Care Reform

The Diageo/Hotline Poll finds that 62% of voters support "the President enacting a major overhaul of the U.S. health care system," with 38% of voters strongly supporting a major overhaul.

For the most part, support for major reform is strong across the board, though there are differences in support based on partisan affiliation, age, and income levels.

Specifically, one-third (35%) of Republican voters, 64% of Independent voters, and 87% of Democratic voters support a major overhaul of health care.

Among age groups, while a majority all age groups support reforming health care, senior citizens age 65+ are the least supportive, with 56% of them supporting reform.

Likewise, a majority of income categories support reform, but those earning $100K+ in annual income are the least supportive, with 58% supporting reform.

Support/Oppose Overhaul of Health Care System Among Partisans

Support/Oppose Overhaul of Health Care System by Age Group

Support/Oppose Overhaul of Health Care System by Income

"President Obama and the Democrats start with strong public support for their desire to make major changes to health care in this country," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline. "Even so, those who are likely to be the happiest with the status quo - or at least most worried about change (those over 65 and those in the upper income bracket) - are probably the first to abandon reform once the details are revealed."

The Poll also finds supporters of health care reform bring a sense of urgency to the issue: among those who do support a major overhaul, the vast majority (94%) says that it is "important" for "Congress and the President to pass health care legislation this year."

Controlling Costs vs. Expanding Coverage

The Poll finds that, despite broad agreement on the need for health care legislation, there is some division over which aspect of reform should be more of a priority. In other words, voters (49%) say that "controlling the cost of health care" should be a bigger focus than "expanding coverage for Americans without health insurance" (35%).

Furthermore, there is some divide on the specifics, based on partisan affiliation. Specifically, 58% of Republican voters say that "controlling the cost of health care" should be a bigger focus than "expanding coverage," compared with 49% of overall voters, 54% of Independents, and only 36% of Democrat voters. Conversely, 52% of Democrats say that "expanding coverage" should be the larger focus, compared with 35% of overall voters, 26% of Republican voters, and 30% of Independent voters.

Controlling Costs of Health Care vs. Expanding Coverage among Partisans

The Poll also finds an age dynamic to priorities of reform. Specifically, the older the voter, the less likely they are to put priority on expanding coverage.

Controlling Costs of Health Care vs. Expanding Coverage by Age Group

Taxing Benefits to Pay for Health Care Reform Is a "Non-Starter"

While public support for health care reform is strong, when it comes to paying for health care reform, voters are decidedly against the idea of taxing health benefits. Specifically, only 26% support taxing health benefits, while 68% of voters oppose, with 51% strongly opposing taxing benefits.

The Poll finds opposition to taxing benefits spans the partisan divide. Specifically, taxing health benefits is opposed by 79% of Republicans, 73% of Independents, and 51% of Democrats.

General Direction of the Country, Obama's Ratings

For the first time since the Diageo/Hotline Poll began fielding (January 2005), the percentage of voters who say that the country is generally going in the 'right direction' (45%) has surpassed the percentage voters saying it is on the 'wrong track' (43%).

President Obama's ratings have remained high since his Inauguration, with over two-thirds of registered voters (67%) saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 65% saying they approve of the way that he is handling his job as president.

Despite these high ratings, there is a steadily decreasing sense of confidence around whether Obama "will be able to bring real change to the way things are done in Washington D.C." In the January Poll, 75% of voters were confident in his ability to bring real change, compared with 65% in today's Poll. While the current confidence level is still high, it does represent a 10 percentage point drop since the beginning of Obama's presidency.

Confidence in Obama to "Bring Real Change": January - Present

Obama's Approval Ratings on Most Issues are High

President Obama's approval ratings on most issues are high, as he has a 62% approval rating on the way he is handling Foreign Affairs, 61% for his Energy Policy, and 60% for the way he is handling the Economy and Terrorism. Obama's approval rating on health care is relatively lower at 55% and his lowest approval rating is "social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage," at 45%.

President Obama's Approval Rating on Issues

To obtain complete Poll results, please see www.diageohotlinepoll.com.

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Selin Kent at (212) 850-5735 or Selin.Kent@fd.com.

Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from June 4 - 7, 2009, among a random, representative sample of 800 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

About FD:One of the most highly regarded consultancies in the communications industry, FD employs more than 750 staff and advises more than 1000 clients worldwide through its hub offices in London and New York, as well as its network of wholly-owned offices in Bahrain, Beijing, Bogota, Boston, Brussels, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Los Angeles, Manchester, Melbourne, Moscow, Panama City, Paris, San Francisco, Shanghai, Sydney and Washington, DC. With a 20 year history of advising clients in both the private and public sectors, FD's services include financial public relations, capital markets communications, public affairs, crisis and issues management and corporate, business-to-business and business-to-consumer communications. FD is also a market leader in M&A advisory work. FD is structured around specialist sector teams operating on an international basis, covering consumer industries, financial services, basic industries, business services, life sciences & healthcare, media, real estate, technology and telecommunications. FD is a division of FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN), the global business advisory firm. For more information, please visit www.fd.com.

At “100 Day” Mark, President Obama is Living Up to Expectations

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

As President Obama completes his first 100 days in office, the Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from April 23 -26, 2009, finds that his job approval ratings have remained high and stable and that he is largely living up to the public's expectations of him.

Obama's Approval Ratings Have Remained High

Obama's favorability ratings have remained high, with 64% of respondents saying they have a favorable opinion of him, and 31% of voters holding an unfavorable view. His job approval ratings have also remained high and stable since his Inauguration, and reflect very similar proportions, with 62% of voters saying they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, and only 33% saying they disapprove.

Looking closer at Obama's approval ratings reveals that the group of voters that is largely driving Obama's high approval ratings are those aged 18 - 34. Obama's approval rating is 76% among voters which fall within this age group, while it is significantly lower for those aged 35 - 55 (55%) and 55 and over (60%).

Obama's Approval Rating among Different Age Groups

The Poll also finds that there has been a mild polarization of opinions with regards to how voters are saying Obama is handling his job as president. Among Democrats, Obama's approval rating has experienced a 16 percentage point jump from the January Poll (76%) to today's Poll (92%). Conversely, his approval rating has decreased by 11 percentage points among Republicans from the January poll (42%) to the April Poll (31%).

Obama's Ratings on Specific Issues

The Poll also finds that Obama's approval ratings on most issues are high, with the "War in Afghanistan" (64%), "War in Iraq" (61%) and "energy" (59%) leading the way. Obama's approval rating on "the economy," which 69% of voters say is the most important issue facing the country, is also high, at 56%.

While 58% of voters say that Obama has focused "the right amount" on "the economy" thus far, 42% also say that "the economy" is the one issue they would like to see President Obama spend more time focusing on for the rest of 2009. The top issue that voters feel Obama is paying too little attention to is "immigration," at 52%, followed by "terror" (44%).

Obama is Realizing Expectations

The first 100 days of every new president are scrutinized and measured with the expectations of the public. Confidence in Obama to bring "real change to the way things are done in Washington, DC" is still very high (65%). While this confidence level in Obama to bring change has decreased by 10 percentage points since the January Poll, it nonetheless indicates that expectations of him are still somewhat high.

The Diageo/Hotline Poll finds that President Obama is largely living up to expectations, with 60% of voters saying that he is doing the kind of job they expected him to, based on their expectations of him before he took office as president. Voters are evenly split between saying that he is doing a better job than expected (19%) and a worse job (18%).

Voters were also asked to evaluate how they think Obama has performed compared to other recent past presidents. The majority of respondents (55%) say that he has done a "better job compared to past presidents, 24% say he has done a "worse job," and 15% say Obama has fared about "the same as" his predecessors.

Congress and Congressional "Brands"

Even though the generic congressional ballot between Republicans and Democrats is tightening, congressional Democrats, in general, are perceived more positively than their Republican counterparts. Most voters still say that they would vote for the Democratic candidate if elections for U.S. Congress were tomorrow (39% for Democrats, 31% for Republicans, +8 for Democrats), though the gap has narrowed 16 percentage point difference since the January Poll (46% for Democrats, 22% for Republicans, +24 for Democrats).

That said, congressional Democrats' approval rating stands at 44%, compared with only 32% for their Republican counterparts. Further, 80% of Democrats approve of their Party's congressional leaders, while only 54% of Republicans approve of Republicans in Congress. Republicans have yet to completely repair the "brand" of their Party among their base, as 56% of those voting for the Republican in the generic ballot approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, compared with 82% of those voting for the Democrat in the generic ballot saying they approve of the job their congressional leaders are doing.

Among Independent voters, it is clear that their view of 2010 congressional elections is driven more by their opinions on President Obama than by their opinions of Democrats or Republicans in Congress. Specifically, 56% of Independent voters who plan on voting for the Democratic candidate in the 2010 congressional election do so because they support President Obama's agenda and policies. Likewise, 52% of Independent voters who plan on voting Republican do so because they oppose President Obama's policies. "Even as President Obama continues to draw strong support from independent voters, his party has not fared as well with this key group of voters," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline. "Yet, it's also clear that independents support for congressional Democrats or Republicans is driven more by their views of Obama. For them, 2010 is a referendum on the President, not Pelosi or GOP alternatives."

MOST VOTERS CONFIDENT IN SECRETARY GEITHNER, BUT HE RECEIVES MIXED REVIEWS

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, March 31, 2008 - With the recent unveiling of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plan to address "toxic assets" held by banks, the Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from March 26 - March 29, 2009, finds that a majority of voters express confidence in Secretary Geithner.

Secretary Geithner and Economic Turnaround

A majority of voters (51%) have confidence that Secretary Geithner will be successful in turning the economy around, while 39% are not confident he will be successful. By comparison, the Poll finds that voters have higher levels of confidence in "President Obama and his team of economic advisors" to successfully turn around the economy (61%).

Moreover, this month's Poll finds that more voters hold a favorable opinion (37%) of Secretary Geithner than an unfavorable opinion (30%), and 30% of voters don't register an opinion of him at all. The Poll also finds that there is a partisan divide in how Geithner is perceived, with 58% of Democrats saying they have a favorable opinion of him, compared with only 20% of Republicans who say the same.

When it comes to the recently enacted stimulus package, over half of voters (57%) are confident that the stimulus package will be successful in turning around the economy, up from 53% in last month's Poll.

Impact of Bonuses on Opinions of Government's Role.

As a result of news coverage of "bonuses for employees and executives of financial services companies," 63% of voters are LESS likely to support future financial assistance by the government for other industries. However, they are also MORE likely to support "increased government oversight and regulation of companies in the financial sector" (46%).

Has what you have seen, read or heard about bonuses...make you more or less likely to...

	More Likely	Less Likely
Support government programs to spend money to financially help companies in other industries (n = 396, margin of error = +/-4.9%)	11%	63%
Support increased government oversight and regulation of companies in the financial sector (n = 404, margin of error = +/-4.9%)	46%	34%

Pessimism Gap Closing; Obama's Ratings Remain High

The Poll finds more voters say the country is on the "wrong track" (49%) than say the country is headed in the "right direction" (39%). However, the percentage of those saying "right direction" is up seven points from 32% in last month's Poll and the percentage saying "wrong track" is down six points from 55%.

President Obama's personal ratings remain high, with almost two-thirds of voters (64%) holding a favorable opinion of him and 63% of voters approving of the job he is doing as President. Furthermore, a similar proportion of voters say that they are confident that he will bring "real change" to the way things are done in Washington (67%).

"One of the best ways to gain leverage in Washington is to come to the table with good numbers. And, Obama's still got them," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline. "Even more importantly, there's also been an increase in the percentage of people who see the country headed in the right direction, as well as increased support for the stimulus. While voters may not be seeing tangible evidence of economic turn-around, they may be rewarding Obama for what they view as a solid effort."

To obtain complete Poll results, please see www.diageohotlinepoll.com.

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Selin Kent at (212) 850-5735 or Selin.Kent@fd.com.

Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from March 26 - March 29, 2009, among a random, representative sample of 800 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

Overall, Voters Support Obama's Economic Plans, But Those Following Them "Very Closely" Have Doubts

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, March 5, 2008 - With the recent announcement of President Obama's plans for a home foreclosure relief plan and proposed plans to increase taxes on affluent individuals and to spend money on health care, education and energy, the Diageo/Hotline Poll of 803 registered voters conducted by FD from February 28 - March 2, 2009, finds that majorities of voters support his proposals.

Obama's Economic Proposals

The Poll finds a majority of voters (56%) support Obama's $75 billion home foreclosure plan, and a similar proportion (57%) say it will help bring stability to the housing market. The plan is supported by 78% of Democrats and 56% of Independents, but is opposed by 60% of Republicans.

From what you have read or heard about President Obama's proposed $75 billion plan in which the government would help prevent foreclosures on individual homes, do you support or oppose this proposal?

$75 Billion Home Foreclosure Plan	Democrats (n=261, MoE=+/-6%)	Independents (n=287, MoE=+/-5.9%	Republicans (n=223, MoE=+/-6.6%)
SUPPORT	78%	56%	31%
OPPOSE	12%	38%	60%

However, the Poll also finds that voters who say they are following news and information about the various economic proposals "very closely" are split on the proposal (48% support and 47% oppose), and those who are paying less attention support the proposal by a greater margin (59% support and 30% oppose).

How closely have you been paying attention to and reading about the details of the various economic plans being discussed in Washington?

$75 Billion Home Foreclosure Plan	Somewhat Closely/Not Closely (n=552, MoE=+/-4.2)	Very Closely (n=250, MoE=+/-6.2)
SUPPORT	59%	48%
OPPOSE	30%	47%

Likewise, most voters (57%) believe the programs in education, health care and energy that President Obama proposed to Congress in late February will help the economy by investing in the country's future, saving money and creating jobs. Meanwhile, more than one-third of voters (37%) disagree and believe that, while important, these issues should be handled at a later time because government is spending too much money already. Again, the Poll finds significant differences in attitudes towards the proposal based on how much attention voters say they are paying to the discussion of economic plans.

How closely have you been paying attention to and reading about the details of the various economic plans being discussed in Washington?

	Somewhat Closely/Not Closely (n=552, MoE=+/-4.2)	Very Closely (n=250, MoE=+/-6.2)
ADDRESS NOW	61%	50%
HANDLE LATER	32%	46%

There is also strong support for President Obama's proposal to raise taxes on the affluent (67%) in 2010 to help pay for the programs, but little confidence that this measure will actually be sufficient to cover these programs while, at the same time, cutting the deficit in half (45%).

The Aftermath of the Stimulus

Against this backdrop, the Diageo/Hotline Poll finds that voters have lukewarm confidence in the recently-passed stimulus bill and its ability to successfully turn around the economy. A majority of voters (53%) are confident that the stimulus bill will help turn the economy around, while 44% are not confident.

However, in terms of the stimulus bill's impact on the 2010 congressional elections, more voters say they are more likely to vote for the candidate who supported the stimulus bill (48%) and 35% say they are more likely to vote for the candidate who opposed it, with 10% saying they are unsure. In the meantime those who say that more government involvement in the economy is a good idea have slightly decreased from 55% in the January Poll to 49% in this month's Poll.

Likewise, the percentage of voters holding an unfavorable view of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi increased from 35% in the January Poll to 44% in this month's Poll. What's more, although Republicans continue to trail Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, 34% say they would vote for the Republican candidate if U.S. Congress elections were held today, up from 22% in the January Poll.

Obama's Ratings Remain High

Regardless of voters' support for one economic plan or the other, President Obama's favorability ratings remain high, with more than two-thirds of voters (68%) expressing a favorable opinion of him. What's more, the Poll finds that similar proportions of voters (67%) say they approve of the way he is handling his job as president, and are confident that he will be able to bring "real change" to the way things are done in Washington (70%). Additionally, voters are encouraged by the group of economic advisors surrounding him, with 64% of voters express confidence in Obama's economic team of advisors to help turn the economy around.

"President Obama's job approval ratings remain solid, even as his policies have been under significant attack by Republicans," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline. "Even so, this should not be taken as a sign that the Obama Administration and Democrats have ‘carte blanche' when it comes to government spending. Voters are less supportive of more government spending on the economy than they were in January, which suggests that GOP attacks on Democrats as runaway spenders could start to take root."

To obtain complete Poll results, please see www.diageohotlinepoll.com.

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Selin Kent at (212) 850-5735 or Selin.Kent@fd.com.

Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from February 28 - March 2, 2009, among a random, representative sample of 803 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

CONGRESSIONAL RATINGS: DEMOCRATS SEEN AS DOING A BETTER JOB THAN REPUBLICANS

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

Now that Democrats control both the White House and both Houses of Congress, Democrats in Congress currently find themselves as beneficiaries of President Obama's high favorability and job approval ratings.

Specifically, The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from January 21-24, 2009, finds that 49% of voters say they approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, while only 26% of voters who approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing.

And, while the 111th Congress has been in session barely three weeks, the Poll finds that the Democratic candidate leads the Republican candidate 46%-22% in a generic 2010 congressional election match-up, with 27% of voters saying they are undecided.

However, the Poll also finds that voters are pragmatic and want action, regardless of which party is in power. Specifically, a majority of voters (51%) say it does not matter who is in power, as long as things get done.

"It is clear that voters are not in the mood for partisan posturing," commented Brent McGoldrick, Vice President of FD. "Given the challenges facing the country and the wave of high approval ratings President Obama is currently riding, individual Republicans and Democrats in Congress would do well to find common ground with the President where they can."

Feelings About Democratic Control of White House and Congress

It does not matter to me who is in power, as long as tehy can get things done for the country	51%
I am excited that, for the first time in a long time, the Democrats are in charge of both the Presidency and the Congress	28%
I am concerned that the Democrats will control both the Presidency and the Congress	20%

Jan 27 Diageo/Hotline Poll Release:

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB APPROVAL RATING IS AT 63%

Voters Have Enormous Confidence in Obama to Bring "Change" and are "Inspired" by His Election and Inauguration

Poll Finds Broad Support for and Confidence in Stimulus Package

But Most Don't Expect Economic Recovery until Mid-way through Obama's First Term

With one week into a new presidential administration, a substantial majority of Americans approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president.

The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from January 21-24, 2009, finds that 63% of voters say they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, with 42% saying they "strongly approve."

Voters Are Confident He Will Bring "Real Change" to Washington

The Poll finds that 75% of voters are "confident" that President Obama will bring "real change to the way things are done in Washington, D.C." This represents a nine-point increase from the 66% of voters who said they were "confident" in his ability to bring real change in the Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted immediately after the Presidential Election.

The Poll also finds that 76% of voters hold a favorable impression of President Obama, while only 15% of voters hold an unfavorable impression.

President Obama's Inauguration Address is Rated Highly and Inspired Both Optimism and Activism

More than two-thirds of voters (68%) said they watched his Inauguration speech last week. And, among those who watched the speech, 78% of voters said that, compared to Inaugural speeches given by past presidents in their lifetimes, it was either the "best Inaugural speech" or "better than most." Furthermore, the Diageo/Hotline survey finds that 83% of those who watched the speech said it made them "more optimistic" that the U.S. will meet its challenges.

"How would you rate his speech, compared to past Inaugural speeches given by previous presidents in your lifetime?"

Inauguration Speech Rating	Total
The best inaugural speech	33%
Better than most but not the best	45%
About the same as past speeches	16%
Worse than most but not the worst	1%
The worst inaugural speech	1%

Moreover, the Poll finds that the election and Inauguration of President Obama has inspired Americans to become more involved in civic life: two-thirds of all voters (67%) say they are now inspired "to become more involved in helping the country meet its challenges."

The Economy Remains the Top Issue and Voters Don't See Recovery from Recession for a Couple of Years. There Is Substantial Support for the Stimulus Package. But, the Second $350 Billion of TARP is a "Bad Idea."

Not surprisingly, "the Economy" remains at the top of voters' minds. A whopping 76% of voters say it is the most important issue facing the country. And, most voters do not see a quick road to economic recovery. Specifically, nearly seven-out-of-ten voters (69%) think that recovery will take longer than one year but less than four, virtually the length of President Obama's first term.

Expected Length of the Recession

Length of Recession	Total
Less than 12 months	3%
More than 12 months but less than 2 years	26%
Between 2 and 4 years	43%
More than 4 years	25%
Don't know	3%

Against this backdrop, the Diageo/Hotline Poll finds that a majority of voters approve of the proposed $825 billion stimulus package, even if that means increasing the deficit to pay for it.

Specifically, when voters are asked if they support or oppose the stimulus package and no details of the plan are given to them, 54% of voters support the stimulus package. When voters are given the specifics of the stimulus package, 66% of voters support it.

Additionally, substantial majorities of voters are both confident that, if passed, the money allocated to the stimulus package "will be spent and managed wisely" (57% say they are confident) and that it also "will be effective in turning around the economy" (65% say they are confident).

Confidence in the Stimulus Package

Confidence that Stimulus Spending will be Spent Wisely (n=401, Margin of Error = +/-4.9%)	Total
TOTAL CONFIDENT	57%
TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT	41%

Confidence that Stimulus Spending will be Effective (n=399, Margin of Error = +/-4.9%)	Total
TOTAL CONFIDENT	65%
TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT	32%

"Coming into his first significant challenge in getting his stimulus package passed, President Obama is in the driver's seat. He has the confidence of the American public and they not only support his stimulus plan, but they overwhelmingly believe it will help turn the economy around," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline. "The question is: 'Can he sustain this goodwill through what could be a vigorous fight over the specifics of this plan?' "

Voters' positive feelings evaporate, however, when it comes to the second half ($350 billion) of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Specifically, 56% of voters say it was a "bad idea" for the Senate to pass the second half of TARP spending, while only 32% of voters say it was a "good idea."

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Selin Kent at (212) 850-5735 or selin.kent@fd.com.

AMERICAN VOTERS “CONFIDENT” OBAMA WILL BRING ABOUT “REAL CHANGE”

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

One week after his historic election as President of the United States, The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from November 6-9, 2008, finds that 66% of voters say they are "confident" that Barack Obama will bring real change to Washington, D.C.

Top Priority for New President & New Congress

Overall, voters are fairly evenly split when it comes to the top domestic priorities they would like to see a new administration and a new Congress pursue. There is equal support for a plan to make America energy independent (24%), a plan to oversee and regulate financial markets (22%), and a plan for a middle class tax cut (21%).

TOP PRIORITY FOR OBAMA AND NEW CONGRESS Among all voters, n=800
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE	24%
FINANCIAL MARKET REGULATION	22%
MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUT	21%
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE	15%
INFRASTRUCTURE	8%

The Poll finds that, among Democratic voters, priorities for the next administration and next Congress are somewhat different. Specifically, a tax cut tops the list of priorities (29%), followed by financial market regulation (22%) and a national health care plan (19%).

TOP PRIORITY FOR OBAMA AND NEW CONGRESS Among Democratic Voters, n=310
MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUT	29%
FINANCIAL MARKET REGULATION	22%
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE	19%
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE	13%
INFRASTRUCTURE	10%

Leadership Style

The Poll finds that voters are extremely eager to see bipartisanship both in the approach and the make-up of the incoming administration.

By a large 25-point margin, voters would rather see Obama compromise and cooperate with the Republicans (58%) than see him pursue his agenda with few changes and potentially engage in conflict with Republicans (33%).

Likewise, 61% of voters say they want to see Obama's cabinet and close advisors reflect an equal composition of Democrats and Republicans. Only 24% said he should surround himself mostly with Democrats and only 6% said he should surround himself only with Democrats.

"President-elect Obama ends this campaign with very high approval ratings but also very high expectations that he'll be able to translate his campaign themes of bipartisanship and ‘change' into action," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of The Hotline.

Images of Key Figures

The Poll finds that Barack Obama is now perceived favorably by 65% of voters, and John McCain is perceived favorably by 58% of voters.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is perceived favorably by 31% of voters and is perceived unfavorably by 40% of voters. Meanwhile, 26% of voters could not rate her either way.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is perceived favorably by 12% of voters, perceived unfavorably by 22% of voters and 62% of voters could not rate him either way.

Final Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Finds Obama Leading 50%-45%

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - On the eve of the Election, the final Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket with a solid lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters, showing little change from the weekend Polls.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 50%, McCain-Palin is at 45%, and 5% of likely voters are still undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden* **

Today's Poll shows that 27% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by seven percentage points, (51% - 44%).

Among Independent likely voters, Obama leads McCain by approximately the same margin as he does among all likely voters.

General Election Ballot Among Independents: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

N=153 likely voters, MoE=+/-7.9%

The Poll also shows that GOP support for McCain-Palin has been solidifying, up from 83% in the October 31 Poll, to 87% in today's.

General Election Ballot Among Republicans for McCain-Palin*

N=320 Republican likely voters, MoE = +/-5.5

The Economy

In terms of expected performance on the economy, which remains the top national issue cited by likely voters (at 56%) the Poll shows that McCain has gradually closed in on Obama's lead, (47% - 42%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Among those who have already voted, the two candidates are at par in terms of expected performance on the economy, (McCain, 46% - Obama, 45%).

In addition, among Independent likely voters, the two candidates are also at par on this issue, (Obama, 43% - McCain, 42%).

Preparedness to Lead

Today's Poll shows that McCain continues to dominate Obama on his preparedness to lead, with a six point advantage over Obama, (49% - 43%).

Preparedness to Lead*

Among those who have already voted, the gap between the two candidates on this measure is narrower than it is among likely voters, (McCain, 47% - Obama, 45%).

And, among Independent likely voters, McCain leads Obama on this measure by an even larger margin than he does among likely voters of 13 points, (50% - 37%).

Regional Breakdown

The Poll also shows that two candidates are neck and neck in the West, with McCain-Palin only two points ahead of Obama-Biden in this region, (49% - 47%). Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin in the highly contested region of the Midwest, (53% - 42%). McCain-Palin leads Obama-Biden by three points in the South, (49% - 46%), and Obama-Biden is ahead of McCain-Palin by 12 points in the Northeast (53% - 41%).

Table 1: Head-to-Head Ballot by Region

Candidates	West	South	Midwest	Northeast
McCain-Palin	49%	49%	42%	41%
Obama-Biden	47%	46%	53%	53%

N=887 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.3%

* data presented in charts based on rolling 3-day average of 800+ likely voter interviews (out of 900+ registered voter interviews) concluded the previous day. This is based on at least 300 interviews conducted daily.

** Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates' images, partisan identification and demographics, "Refused" responses in the head-to-head question were assigned either to Obama, McCain or Undecided.

Obama Leads McCain 50%-45%; More than One-Quarter of Voters Have Already Voted

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 50%-45%, with 5% undecided. The Poll also finds that 27% of voters have already voted. Among these voters, 51% support Obama and 46% support McCain.

Presidential General Election, McCain-Palin v. Obama-Biden, November 2, 2008*

	Likely Voters**
Obama-Biden	50%
McCain-Palin	45%
Undecided	5%

n=882 - Margin of Error = +/- 3.3%

* Based on 904 interviews conducted October 30- November 1.

With 72 Hours Left Until Election Day, Obama Leads McCain by Seven Points

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 51%-44%, with 5% undecided.

	Likely Voters**
Obama-Biden	51%
McCain-Palin	44%
Undecided	5%

n=876 - Margin of Error = +/- 3.3%

* Based on 902 interviews conducted October 29-31.
** Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates' images, partisan identification and demographics, "Refused" responses in the head-to-head question were assigned either to Obama, McCain or Undecided.

Latest Polls: The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll, Monthly Poll, Poll of Southwest Hispanic Voters

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

October 31, 2008

New York, NY - With only a few days remaining until Election Day, today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket maintaining its lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 48%, McCain-Palin is at 41%, and 6% of likely voters are still undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

Today's Poll shows that 23% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 18 percentage points, (55% - 37%).

Spotlight on Enthusiasm

Today's Poll shows that 61% of likely voters are supporting their candidate enthusiastically, with Democrats reporting higher enthusiasm for their candidate than Republicans by a 21-point margin, (72% for Democrats, 51% for Republicans).

The Poll also shows that black likely voters are more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate than white likely voters by a 21-point margin, (80% of black likely voters say they "will vote enthusiastically" for their candidate, 59% of white likely voters say the same).

Moreover, likely voters in the 18-29 age group report less enthusiasm about their candidate (55% say they will "vote enthusiastically") than likely voters in the 55-64 age group (69% say they will "vote enthusiastically") and likely voters who are over 65 years of age (64% say they will "vote enthusiastically").

Yet looking at the October 16 Poll reveals that the enthusiasm levels of all age groups have increased, except for likely voters between the ages of 30 and 44, (whose enthusiasm levels decreased from 67% in the October 16 Poll, to 59% in today's Poll). Reported enthusiasm levels for those between the ages of 18 and 29 went up 8 points since the October 16 Poll, (from 47% of likely voters saying they would "vote enthusiastically" for their candidate, to 55% of likely voters saying the same today). The largest shift in enthusiasm is reported by likely voters aged 55-64, (whose enthusiasm levels increased from 56% in the October 16 Poll, to 69% in today's Poll).

Table 1: Enthusiasm by Age

Enthusiastically Supporting Candidate	Aged 18-29	Aged 30-44	Aged 45-54	Aged 55-64	Aged 65+
October 16 Poll	47%	67%	53%	56%	54%
October 31 Poll	55%	59%	55%	69%	64%

Oct 16 (N=736 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.6%)
Oct 31 (N=775 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.5%)

Regional Breakdown

The Poll also shows that Obama-Biden is leading McCain-Palin in most regions of the United States in the head-to-head ballot, including the highly contested region of the Midwest, (51% for Obama-Biden, 38% for McCain-Palin). McCain-Palin is leading Obama-Biden by 4 points in the South, (46% - 42%), and Obama-Biden is ahead of McCain-Palin by 20 points in the Northeast (53% - 33%), and by 8 points in the West (51% - 43%).

Table 2: Head-to-Head Ballot by Region

Candidates	West	South	Midwest	Northeast
McCain-Palin	43%	46%	38%	33%
Obama-Biden	51%	42%	51%	53%

N=870 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.3%

Issues/Preparedness

In terms of expected performance on the economy, the Poll shows Obama maintaining his lead over McCain, (48% - 37%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Today's Poll shows that McCain has re-gained ground in terms of perceived preparedness to lead since the beginning of the week, (46% - 42%). The two candidates were at parity on this measure in both the October 27 and 28 Polls.

Preparedness to Lead*

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Smriti Sateesh at (212) 850-5749 or Smriti.Sateesh@fd.com.

Methodology: From September 2 - September 30, 2008 the Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll has been conducted via telephone among a random, nationally representative sample of registered voters, age 18 and older. As we move closer to the general election, we have focused our sample on those considered to be most likely to vote. Therefore our release of daily tracking results will now be lead by our likely voter results. Results are released daily. As of the October 25 Poll, in light of the increasing proportion of the population that has reported to be early or absentee voters, FD has decided to include those defined as "voters who have indicated they are extremely likely to vote, very likely to vote or have already voted absentee or early" in the likely voter sample. Today's results are based on combined data from Oct 28 to Oct 30, 2008, with n=870 likely voters (margin of error +/- 3.3%) and n=902 registered voters (margin of error +/- 3.3%).

Latest Polls: The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll, Monthly Poll, Poll of Southwest Hispanic Voters

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll:

Obama-Biden Hold 6-Point Lead; Older Voters Report Higher Enthusiasm for their Candidates than Younger Voters

New York, NY - With only a few days remaining until Election Day, today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket maintaining its lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 48%, McCain-Palin is at 42%, and 6% of likely voters are still undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

Today's Poll shows that 19% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 19 percentage points, (55% - 36%).

Enthusiasm

Today's Poll shows that 60% of likely voters are supporting their candidate enthusiastically, and that Democrats remain more enthusiastic about their candidate than Republicans by a 21-point margin, (71% for Democrats, 50% for Republicans).

The Poll also shows that black likely voters are significantly more enthusiastic about their candidate than white likely voters, (80% of black likely voters say they "will vote enthusiastically" for their candidate, 58% of white likely voters say the same). In addition, likely voters in the 18-29 age group report less enthusiasm about their candidate (53% say they will "vote enthusiastically") than likely voters in the 55-64 age group (63% say they will "vote enthusiastically") and likely voters who are over 65 years of age (65% say they will "vote enthusiastically").

Issues/Preparedness

In terms of expected performance on the economy, the Poll shows Obama maintaining his lead over McCain, which has increased from a 9-point gap in the October 26 Poll, to a 13-point difference in today's Poll, (49% - 36%).

Further, among those who cite the economy as the most important issue facing the country (59%), Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 17 points, (53% - 36%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Today's Poll shows that McCain has re-gained ground in terms of perceived preparedness to lead, (47% - 43%). The two candidates were at parity on this measure in both the October 27 and 28 Polls.

Preparedness to Lead*

THE DIAGEO/HOTLINE MONTHLY POLL:

WITH ONLY DAYS REMAINING, OBAMA-BIDEN HAS 7-POINT LEAD;
OBAMA DOMINATES ON TOP ISSUE OF HANDLING FINANCIAL CRISIS

McCain Seen as More Prepared to Lead than Obama,
But Most Voters Say Obama has Personal Skills, Qualities to Succeed as President

New York, October 30, 2008 - While the U.S. economy and global financial crisis have been looming on voters' minds for the past couple of months, and the economy is currently seen as the top issue facing the country (with 58% of voters saying this), voters remain relatively split on the direction of the economy moving forward.

The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 804 registered voters conducted by FD from October 23 - October 26, 2008 shows that almost half of voters say that their personal financial situation will "remain the same" (48%) with almost the same amount of voters saying either their personal situation will get "better" (26%) or "worse" (21%).

Specific economic concerns for voters are varied, with the financial market crisis in general (17%), followed by health care costs (17%), and gas/utilities (14%) cited as the top economic anxieties. And, in terms of solving the financial crisis, voters are relatively split on whether there should be a short-term fix (47%) or longer-term government oversight (44%).

Head-to-Head

In this context, Obama-Biden enjoys a 7-point lead over McCain-Palin with only a few days remaining in the race.

Table 1: Vote Results among Top Presidential Candidates

	Obama-Biden v. McCain-Palin
October 2008	49% - 42%

Overall, Obama and McCain enjoy comparable favorability ratings (58% and 53%, respectively), and enjoy similar favorability ratings among Independent voters (53%, McCain v. 52%, Obama).

On economic matters, Obama is leading McCain in his perceived trustworthiness to handle today's financial market crisis (49% to 40%).

When it comes to Obama's tax plan and voters are presented with detailed "pro" and "con" arguments, voters' sentiments mirror the head-to-head race: 49% say his tax plan is a "good idea," and 42% say it is a "bad idea."

Candidate Characteristics

In terms of candidate qualities, Obama is seen as having the "personal skills and qualities that it takes to succeed as President" by a 6-point margin over McCain (48% to 42%).

While McCain is overall seen as more "prepared to lead" than Obama, the majority of voters still say that Obama is "prepared to lead", (73% - 59%). McCain's perceived preparedness has decreased slightly since the last Diageo/Hotline Poll (conducted post-RNC in September 2008) from 77% in September 2008 to 73% today, while Obama's performance on this measure has remained at par since that same poll (59% in September 2008 and 59% today).

"The fact that the same percentage of voters see him as ‘prepared to lead the U.S.' today as they did in August, suggests that voters saw Obama up to the job of President long before the economic crisis hit," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Hotline.

Table 2: Key Presidential Characteristics

	Prepared to Lead the Country (Very/Somewhat)	Has Personal Skills/Qualities to Succeed as President	Trust to Handle Financial Crisis
Obama	59%	48%	49%
McCain	73%	42%	40%

When asked what their biggest hesitations are for voting for McCain, the top two responses are "his policies would be too similar to those of President Bush" (at 28%) and "his running mate Sarah Palin is not prepared to serve" (at 17%). For Obama, the top hesitation reported is that "he doesn't have enough experience to be President" (at 30%).

Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from October 23 through October 26, 2008, among a random, representative sample of 804 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

THE DIAGEO/HOTLINE POLL OF SOUTHWEST HISPANIC VOTERS:

HISPANIC VOTERS IN SOUTHWESTERN BATTLEGROUND STATES FAVOR OBAMA OVER MCCAIN, 67%-24%

Democrats Seen As More In Sync with Values & Priorities of Hispanic and Latino Voters

New York, October 30, 2008 - A Diageo/Hotline poll conducted among 800 Hispanic voters in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, finds that Barack Obama leads John McCain among Hispanic voters in the race for the Presidency by a 43-point margin, with 6% of voters saying they are undecided.

HEAD TO HEAD
Obama-Biden	67%
McCain-Palin	24%
Undecided	6%

The Poll finds Hispanic voters in these three important Southwestern battleground states view Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party in a significantly more positive light than they view John McCain, George W. Bush and the Republican Party.

Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Hotline commented: "That McCain is unfavorably viewed by an overwhelming majority of Hispanics in the Southwest is bad news for his election chances in this fast growing part of the country. But the worst part for the GOP is that the party as a whole is seen unfavorably by these voters."

IMAGES	John McCain	George W. Bush	Republicans in Congress	Barack Obama	Democrats in Congress
Favorable	30%	18%	24%	73%	59%
Unfavorable	62%	77%	61%	21%	28%

SHARES VALUES & PRIORITIES OF HISPANIC & LATINO VOTERS LIKE YOURSELF	John McCain	George W. Bush	Barack Obama	Democrats in Congress
Great Deal/ Some	38%	34%	78%	76%
Not Much/ Not At All	55%	61%	15%	16%

Issues

Consistent with findings in the Diageo/Hotline national monthly Poll and the Daily Tracker Poll, with one week until Election Day, Hispanic voters overwhelmingly cite "the economy" (63%) as the most important issue on their minds when deciding for whom they are going to vote.

When it comes to the crisis in the financial markets, the Poll finds that a majority (55%) of Hispanic voters think that the financial market crisis merits more regulatory oversight over financial markets, compared to 34% who think that only a short-term fix is required and government should stay out of the private sector.

On the issue of immigration (cited by 5% of respondents as the most important election issue) 74% of Hispanic voters in the three states support "giving illegal immigrants now living in the U.S. the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements."

The Poll finds the images held of the candidates and parties directly translate into their perceived ability to manage key issues. Specifically, similar majorities of respondents say they trust Barack Obama more than John McCain on social issues and immigration and trust Democrats over Republicans on these issues.

	Social Issues	Immigration
Barack Obama	58%	60%
John McCain	25%	23%

Asked of Half Sample, Overall N=397, Margin of Error = +/- 4.9%

	Social Issues	Immigration
Democrats	56%	59%
Republicans	25%	19%

Asked of Half Sample, Overall N=403, Margin of Error = +/- 4.9%

Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-26, 2008, among a random, representative sample of 800 Hispanic registered voters, age 18 and older (overall margin of error +/- 3.5%). In Colorado, 266 Hispanic voters were surveyed (margin of error = +/- 6%); in Nevada, 267 Hispanic voters were surveyed (margin of error = +/- 6%); in New Mexico, 267 Hispanic voters were surveyed (margin of error = +/- 6%).

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Smriti Sateesh at (212) 850-5749 or Smriti.Sateesh@fd.com.

Obama-Biden Hold 7-Point Lead: "Undecided" Voters Slightly Advantage McCain-Palin

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket maintaining lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 49%, McCain-Palin is at 42%, and 6% of likely voters are still undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

Today's Poll shows that 18% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 16 percentage points, (54% - 38%).

Spotlight on Undecided Voters

In aggregating the "Undecided" extremely likely or very likely voters over the past two weeks (October 14-28) into a subsample of 275 voters, the Poll finds that these undecided voters tend to slightly favor a Republican candidate over a Democratic candidate.

Specifically, this analysis find that 29% of undecided voters identify themselves as Republicans, 38% self-identify as Independents and 22% self-identify as Democrats.

In looking at who undecided voters intend to vote for in Congressional elections, the analysis finds that a solid majority (61%) have no preference, 21% support the Republican candidate for Congress and 18% support Democratic candidate for Congress

On the measure of who is "more prepared to lead the country", John McCain leads Barack Obama 39%-11% (+28), with 51% unable to choose either candidate

And, on the measure of who better understands the need and priorities of voters, Barack Obama leads John McCain 34%-17% (+17), with 49% unable to choose either candidate

"There are no clear indications based on demographics or attitudes that undecided voters will break significantly for one candidate over the other," said Brent McGoldrick, Vice President of FD. "However, when it comes to measures of self-identification, congressional vote preference and attitudes regarding who is more prepared to lead, McCain enjoys a slight advantage among undecided voters."

Issues/ Preparedness

In terms of expected performance on the economy, the Poll shows Obama expanding his lead over McCain, which has increased from a 9-point gap in the October 25 Poll, to a 13-point difference in today's Poll, (49% - 36%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Today's Poll shows that the two candidates are at parity in terms of preparedness to lead, as McCain's 2-point lead on this measure (46%-44%) is within the margin of error.

Preparedness to Lead*

Poll Finds Obama Leading McCain by 8 Points for Third Straight Day

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket maintaining its 8-point lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 50%, McCain-Palin is at 42%, and 5% of likely voters are still undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

Today's Poll shows that 17% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama and McCain are neck and neck, with 48% supporting Obama and 47% supporting McCain.

Focus on Campaign Outreach

As the campaigns enter the final days, the Poll finds that almost one-third (29%) of likely voters has been contacted directly by either or both of the campaigns.

Specifically, 5% of likely voters say that they have been contacted only by the McCain campaign either over telephone or in-person in the last two months, 8% say they have been contacted only by the Obama campaign, and 16% of likely voters say they have been contacted by both campaigns.

Among likely voters who have been contacted directly by both campaigns, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 10 points, (51% - 41%).

Voters who have been Contacted by the McCain and
Obama Campaigns in the Last Two Months*

Obama is maintaining his solid lead over McCain when it comes to who would better manage the economy, (49% - 38%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

In terms of expected performance on America's energy policies, the Poll finds that McCain continues to narrow Obama's lead on the issue: the gap between them has decreased from 15 points in the October 25 Poll, to only 5 points in today's Poll, (45% - 40%).

Who would do Best Job Managing America's Energy Policies?*

With Eight Days to Go, Obama Leads by Eight Points; Poll Finds 15% of Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

October 27, 2008

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket maintaining its lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters, which includes those voters who have already voted early or absentee.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 50%, McCain-Palin is at 42%, and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

Among Independent likely voters, Obama-Biden's has a 12-point lead over McCain-Palin, (48%-36%).

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

Spotlight on Absentee & Early Voters

As part of the Poll's Likely Voter sample, the Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll has been keeping track of those voters who have already cast early or absentee ballots. Specifically, today's Poll finds that 15% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama leads McCain 48%-46%.

Candidate Qualities

In terms of preparedness to lead, Obama has completely closed in on McCain's lead, (45%-45%).

Among Independent likely voters, the two candidates are also at par with one another in terms of preparedness to lead, (40%-40%).

Preparedness to Lead*

Obama has slightly expanded his lead over McCain in terms of expected performance on the economy, (51%-39%).

Among Independent likely voters, Obama's lead over McCain on this issue is significantly wider at 28 points, (54%-26%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

While Obama is still ahead of McCain in terms of expected performance on America's energy policies (47%-38%), today's Poll shows that the Republican presidential candidate is slightly closing in on his Democratic counterpart's lead.

The gap between the two candidates has closed by 6 points, from a 15-point difference in the October 25 Poll to a nine-point difference in today's Poll.

Again, among Independent likely voters, Obama's lead over McCain on this issue is even wider, (50%-33%).

Who would do Best Job Managing America's Energy Policies?*

Obama-Biden Lead McCain-Palin 50%-42%, 6% Undecided

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 50% - 42%, with 6% undecided.

Presidential General Election, McCain-Palin v. Obama-Biden,
October 26, 2008*

	Likely Voters
Obama-Biden	50%
McCain-Palin	42%
Undecided	6%
	n=878 - Margin of Error = +/- 3.3%

* Based on 909 interviews conducted October 23-25.

Obama-Biden Lead McCain-Palin 50%-43%, 5% Undecided

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 50%-43%, with 5% undecided.

Presidential General Election, McCain-Palin v. Obama-Biden,
October 25, 2008*

	Likely Voters
Obama-Biden	50%
McCain-Palin	43%
Undecided	5%
	n=869 - Margin of Error = +/- 3.3%

* Based on 905 interviews conducted October 22-24.

With 11 Days Until Election Day, Obama-Biden Lead McCain-Palin by 7 Points

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket expanding its lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 50%, McCain-Palin is at 43%, and 5% of likely voters are undecided. The Poll also shows a decrease in likely voters that are still undecided, from 9% in the October 21 Poll, to 5% in today's Poll.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

The Poll shows that Obama-Biden's lead as being largely driven by female likely voters. Among this group, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 16 points, and among male likely voters, McCain-Palin leads Obama-Biden by only one percentage point.

Table 1: Head-to-head among Males and Females

	Obama-Biden	McCain-Palin
Females	54%	38%
Males	46%	47%

While Obama-Biden has a 7-point lead in the head-to-head over McCain-Palin, the Democratic presidential candidate's favorability ratings are only 3 points higher than those of his Republican counterpart, (58% - 55%).

Today's Poll shows that Obama has slightly regained his narrow lead in favorability ratings, as the two candidates were at par in the October 22 Poll, and McCain was viewed more favorably than Obama in yesterday's Poll by one point, (57% - 56%)

Favorability: Obama v McCain*

Obama remains ahead of McCain in terms of expected performance on the economy, (46% - 40%). McCain has slightly closed in on Obama's lead on this issue since the October 20 and 21 Polls, in which the gap between the two candidates was 11 points.

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

* data presented in charts based on rolling 3-day average of 760+ likely voter interviews (out of 900+ registered voter interviews) concluded the previous day. This is based on at least 300 interviews conducted daily.

Obama-Biden Lead McCain-Palin, 48%-43%; McCain Now Leads By 8% Among Men

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows that the Obama-Biden ticket maintains a five-point lead over the McCain-Palin ticket among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 48%, McCain-Palin is at 43%, and 6% of likely voters are undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

While Obama leads McCain, 53% - 36% among likely women voters, the Poll finds that McCain has significantly increased his support among likely men voters in the last several days. As recently as October 19, McCain and Obama were tied 44% - 44% among men. However, in today's Poll, McCain leads Obama 51% - 43% among likely men voters.

General Election Ballot Among Likely Male Voters*

When it comes to overall perceptions of the candidates, the Poll finds that McCain has eliminated the gap in favorability ratings among all likely voters and now barely edges out Obama (57% - 56%). This represents a shift from the October 20 Poll which had Obama leading McCain 57% - 53% among all likely voters. The shift is also evident among likely Independent voters. The October 20 Poll shows that Obama led McCain 59% - 51%. Today's Poll finds that McCain now leads Obama 59% - 57%.

Favorability: Obama v McCain*

The Poll finds that Obama continues to maintain a lead when it comes to whom voters think would best manage the economy, but Obama's lead has shrunk to five points.

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Today's Poll shows that Democratic voters' enthusiasm is considerably higher than those of all voters or other partisan stripes.

Enthusiastically Support Candidate*

Obama-Biden Hold Five-Point Lead Over McCain-Palin

Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 EST

New York, NY - Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows that the Obama-Biden ticket holds a five-point lead over the McCain-Palin ticket among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 47%, McCain-Palin is at 42%, with 8% of likely voters undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

The poll finds that McCain's narrowing of the gap in recent days has come, in part, due to Independent likely voters. The October 19 Poll shows that Obama leads McCain 44%-33% (+11) among Independent likely voters. Today's Poll find that Obama leads McCain 43%-36% (+7) among Independent voters.

The Poll finds that Obama continues to maintain a lead when it comes to whom voters think would best manage the economy, but Obama's lead has shrunk to seven points.

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Today's Poll shows that voters' reported enthusiasm for their candidates continues to rise across party lines among likely voters. While Democratic voters' enthusiasm is considerably higher than those of all voters or other partisan stripes, most notably, the Poll finds the enthusiasm of Independent likely voters to be higher than that of Republican likely voters.

Enthusiastically Support Candidate*

* data presented in charts based on rolling 3-day average of 780+ likely voter interviews (out of 900+ registered voter interviews) concluded the previous day. This is based on at least 300 interviews conducted daily.