Diagonal View

Corona Lock down and Schools

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Wed, 01 Apr 2020 11:33:00 +0000

Corona Lock down and Schools

Dr Nasir Javed

The revelation of Quran started with the word Iqra. Read.

The schools and all educational institutions are closed for 3 months at least, may be more. Loss of students’ time might be a bigger collateral damage than even the economy.

In the current scenario, apart from health (including the psychological issues of anxiety, depression and stress), the two key sectors of society and government that are worst affected by the lock down are economy and education.

First the Education:

While schools were closed abruptly, there was no preparation, like we have prior to summer vacations and thus students and their parents are at a loss as to how to compensate for this loss of time. And this is irreparable loss. We also need to keep in mind that the quantity and quality of our education as a nation, is one of the lowest, even when the schools are open. Hence the worry is more serious. Presence of directionless kids at home is a cause of considerable stress for the parents as well, especially when the young & immature minds are being constantly bombarded with morbidity & death related news & discussions.

Some of the higher learning institutions and high-end private schools are resorting to e-learning through online modules and lectures. Well done. While this is certainly appreciable, what about the more than 95% schools that won’t / can’t arrange this. Even Government is talking about e-learning. Not all students would have the luxury of net or computers to benefit from e learning. This elite thinking is similar to the one of city planners, who build just underpasses & signal free corridors and no pedestrian walkways. Same elite thinking is working here as well. The divide between the haves and the have-not’s shall further widen. Justified?

By the way, do we have any idea of the way majority of the schools in Pakistan are functioning? The quality of teaching, teachers, facilities and learning techniques? I am referring to around 100,000 public schools and another 100,000 private schools. Now whenever someone talks of private schools, we only think of The City school, Lahore Grammar, the Beaconhouse and the likes. Again the same elite mindset. This type of schools cater to less than 10% (max), of the private school students. More than 90% of private schools (around 90,000+) are pseudo English medium schools, where quality of content and teaching is pathetic, with most of the teachers, just educated and untrained. Majority have a lower standard than most of the public schools. We need to cater for this 90% as well, may be on priority.

Starting April 01, the Government of Punjab has initiated the Taleemghar online and cable series. I have seen some of the ‘animated videos’ on Youtube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSqvoxWiOwA as cable TV in my area still has no such channel. Honestly speaking, found these quite boring with unnecessary music and lifeless animations. Who plays music in a class room? These might be good for pre-school & KG kids. But here we are talking about very serious curriculum to be covered from class 1-12, and these animated cartoons are certainly not suitable.

Why do we jump straight to hi-end IT based systems, when simple tools and technologies are available, much less expensive and many times more accessible. Let’s approach the problem, in a more practical manner, closer to reality, with a wider access.

Government should plan for a Television based learning program. Setting up a satellite channel is not a rocket science, and neither requires any World Bank Loan. There are already many channels and government can even lease some of these. (Would have side effect of reducing some anxiety and tension, if we close some of these fear spreading channels!).

Am sure we do realize that TV is the most powerful & pervasive medium that we have. In many cases, even more powerful than internet and social media. So let’s make use of this simple tool that is available in most of the houses. If we can afford full time channels for sports, cricket, old movies, drama, music and what not, why not these five or six channels for the most critical necessity.

We have the experience of Allama Iqbal Open University and the Virtual University. All we need is a good teacher, a few students, a green board and a chalk. A couple of students in the room, sitting at a distance, would be needed for question answer as this improves learning. A teacher in an empty room is less effective. The teacher should teach these students, just like in a normal school. Video record these and make a library, cataloged class wise, subject wise, chapter wise and session wise. These should be exactly in accordance with the syllabus and text books, so students can relate to these and cover their syllabus. Some of the good examples are https://www.youtube.com/edkasa , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dci5dbTpWwA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAedHfzkuM8 , or even this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pncGpyOin_M .

We need six satellite channels to broadcast these lectures, according to a fixed time table. One channel for class 1-5 Urdu Medium. Second for class 6-10 Urdu medium. Third for class 1-5 English medium. Fourth for class 6-10 English medium. And fifth channel for Intermediate classes.

There is also a serious need for teachers’ training. The teachers are free for these 3 months. Let there be a sixth TV channel dedicated to teachers training, with a structured curriculum for these 3 months. Once the situation returns to normalcy, the teachers be asked to appear for an examination, based on this curriculum, with an incentive for those who pass.

The TV schedule shall keep students under a regime and they would follow these time schedules and this discipline is critical. The flexibility of online modules is not suited for school level. The scheduling should be such that every student gets a 30 min session followed by a 30 – 60 minute break. This scheduling shall facilitate that if a family has students of different classes, each one should be able to get around 2-3 hours a day, with breaks. We can start at 8 am and continue till 6 pm.

Every day the sessions should end with some homework as well, like a normal school. Parents would be happy to supervise this home work.

On a weekly basis, there should be a test, based on what is taught and on Monday, the solution should be shown on TV. Thus students can self-mark the test, or seek help from parents and elder siblings. Weekends could be used for revision of sessions, in case someone has missed or is a slow learner.

Once the system is settled, this can continue during summer vacations and even after that, to make up for the lost time and even as a permanent feature for improving the overall quality of learning. We certainly need desperate measures to improve the quality of our education, not only for the elite classes, but for everyone.

Quality education is the best social equalizer, in the long run.

University students are mature and educated enough to be catered through online learning modules and lessons and HEC can support and regulate them.

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A sustainable model for Shelter Homes Dr Nasir Javed

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Mon, 03 Feb 2020 18:13:00 +0000

A sustainable Model for Shelter Homes

Dr Nasir Javed

While the Government’s vision for building shelter home in cities is a commendable initiative, there are fears that an incomplete evaluation of viability and lack of attention to details may hamper the long term sustainability of the project. As is the case with countless well-meaning initiatives past administrations have taken, the question is often raised of a future when the Prime Minister is gone or is tasked with more pressing matters?

Considering the rapid rates of urbanization and population growth, are these shelter homes meant only for a few thousand or aim to scale over a given period of time? While answering these questions, it is also imperative to study, analyze, and import sustainable practices from similar models abroad while mapping the institutional design. The following key elements of the design need to be addressed, upfront:

Sustainability is the fundamental concern. This could stand a better chance, if simplicity seeps into every rung of the supply chain. It is imperative to favor standardization by choosing simple building designs over lavish photo-opportunities that boast concealed piping, cosmetic touchups, and require high energy costs. Architectural insights need to play a role in designing weather-protected and well-ventilated spaces that minimize maintenance costs. High ceilings, thick walls, ample fly-proof windows and preferably verandahs on east & west are some of the energy saving factors.

The same approach would also favor the usage of cotton-filled razais over blankets as they are easier to sanitize and re-use over a longer period of time. The fancy razais we see in the photo shoots would be difficult to store and wash.

Some of the shelter homes are being furnished with foam mattresses, which again would become smelly and unhygienic in less than a season. Charpais offer benefits while remaining versatile, easily moveable and storable.

Attached bathrooms with concealed piping are difficult to maintain, even in private homes. It is easier to build and maintain a row of separated bathrooms, with open pipelines instead of attached bathrooms which requires more complex plumbing.

Determining the criteria for occupants is critical for these facilities. The most important element of these homes is the people living there. We need to have a robust system to manage entry and exit. Who is allowed to live there? Some people would be random visitors, like for a night or two, while some are likely to be permanent residents, like handicapped, old and mentally unwell. A third category is daily laborers, who would find it less expensive than renting a room. This would perhaps mean having a diverse category of homes, depending upon the inmates’ categories ranging from permanent destitute homes to emergency night stay places during extreme weather.

We need to a daily monitoring of every inmate, to make sure that everyone is not only properly looked after but to ensure that the neediest benefit, as demand would always outnumber supply. In addition, we need to avoid these homes from becoming hideouts for criminals. We need some skill building activities for able bodied job-less adults. We need to have a program for graduation of these able bodied men to move out, once they can afford to and are made capable of. A networking with appropriate programs and NGOs would be necessary.

A simultaneous step that is absolutely essential is to strict enforcement of the ban on beggary. While most of the street beggars form part of organized mafias, who need to be just removed, the small category of genuine destitute should be accommodated in long stay shelter homes, with plans for skill building and job opportunities. This could be a major step if we can make our streets and signals beggar free.

Keeping all this in mind, the management of these homes is as important as the facilities being provided. Who shall run these homes is a big question mark. The traditional mode of dumping this function to the DCs and ACs might work as a campaign and offer short term political mileage, but we all know is not sustainable. Perhaps the best option could be to make a role for registered and well reputed NGOs, CBOs and even Mosque committees of the nearby mosque. The work requires empathy and a regard for higher human values, than mere bureaucratic management. A formula for making payments on type of facilities and number of beds could be worked out for payments. However, a supervisory committee, under some local minister, MPA, Mayor or even DC could be formulated for monthly inspections and complaints redressal etc.

All said and done, the million dollar question still remains, as to how to finance the whole initiative with a sustainable model. The government won’t be able to finance it, we all know. Pakistan is one of the countries with the highest charity rates. The government can place separate charity boxes at mosques, mazaars, markets and even roadside for people to donate. Once we all see the system working and no beggars on the streets, there would be no shortage of funds. Let the Government provide seed money of a few billions from the poverty alleviation & ehsaas fund, make a trust of the same and enhance it on charities. Transparency and quality of service is the best bet, with a central Trust Committee to manage the funds.

Last but not the least, this all requires some institution to manage this huge system. But institutions requires regulatory framework. The past history shows that we often forget to make this framework and just rely on verbal orders, PowerPoint presentations, minutes of meetings, directives and increasingly, social media tools. This is never enough. So we need real good rules, regulations and SOPs. Let’s spend some good time and effort with expertise to develop a sound set of these rules that govern all this system.

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Heart or the Mind ; Where do our Thoughts Originate

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Mon, 18 Nov 2019 19:01:00 +0000

Heart or the Mind

Where Do Our Thoughts Originate

Dr Nasir Javed

Human beings are blessed that they can think. Psychologists say that in a normal day the number of thoughts is anything from 50,000-60,000. Most are repetitive, and many are new. Cognitive psychologists and neurologists believe that all this happens in the Brain or the Mind. However, there is a competitor in the body…. Our Heart. Yes. The latest scientific research is gradually discovering that the real ‘conscious human being’ resides in the heart and may be that is also the seat of the human soul. And that is where our thoughts originate and perhaps reside. The mind is just a processing machine.

Does this debate have any practical implication or is it just a theoretical research? The answer is yes, it has a practical aspect. A subsequent blog would attempt to show, how conscious thought management can lead to cure for many psychological & physical ailments. And a happy & successful life.

Human brain has more than 100bn specialized cells called neurons. The interaction and communication between these neurons process the intellectual functions and regulate the body functions. Brain has a conscious mind and a subconscious mind…. But these aspects in a later blog.

The Heart itself has around 40,000 neurons within it and this is the main connection with the brain, with which it has a two way communications. The traditional concept has been that brain regulates the functioning of the heart, which we were taught was just a mechanical pumping equipment. However, the latest research shows that there is more than this. It may be that the heart regulates the functioning of the brain.

Let me provide 3 pieces of evidence:

1: The Heart Develops 2 weeks before the Brain: In the embryo the heart starts beating in the 4^th week, while the brain develops in the 6^th week, thus showing that the heart is capable of functioning by itself. In human embryos the heart begins to beat at about 22-23 days, with blood flow beginning in the 4th week. The heart is therefore one of the earliest differentiating and functioning organs.[1]

3: Heart has a memory of its own:

Yes, the heart has a memory of its own, distinct from that in the brain. Let me share a true story, presented in an International Psychiatric Conference and verified independently.

The Heart That Found Its Body's Killer

‘’……. a psychiatrist came to the microphone during the question and …. struggled to speak through her tears…..

….she said, "I have a patient, an eight-year-old little girl who received the heart of a murdered ten-year-old girl. Her mother brought her to me when she started screaming at night about her dreams of the man who had murdered her donor. She said her daughter knew who it was.

After several sessions, I just could not deny the reality of what this child was telling me. Her mother and I finally decided to call the police and, using the descriptions from the little girl, they found the murderer. He was easily convicted with evidence my patient provided. The time, the weapon, the place, the clothes he wore, what the little girl he killed had said to him . . . everything the little heart transplant recipient reported was completely accurate." [2] (Published in the Book “ The Heart s Code”, by Dr Paul Pearsall )

2: Not only that it has a memory of its own, it has a very strong Electromagnetic Field that connects it with other human beings, with the EM Field of the earth and with the universal EM field.

The heart has an electromagnetic field which is 5000 times stronger than the brain and can be measured even 15 feet away from the body[3]. Thus every person has an electromagnetic field of around 15 ft radius. This electromagnetic field defines the ‘virtual body’ of a person. The electromagnetic (EM) field has the potential to interact with EM field of other individuals in the vicinity and also with the Universal energy field.

Another point to ponder is that thoughts not only originate in the heart but also ‘come from somewhere’… what the poets call ‘aamed’ , mystics call ilhaam, etc and all of us at some point in time must have felt. This also is the transmission medium for telepathy, clairvoyance and other Extra sensory perceptions. In other words, we are all connected with a really BIG universal network, where the heart functions as the SIM Card. The disconnection of service results in death…. There could be numerous sources of networks that keep sending signals to our heart.

No wonder, why the Quran mentions heart at 133 times, while there is hardly any mention of the brain.

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[1] https://embryology.med.unsw.edu.au/embryology/index.php/Cardiovascular_System_-_Heart_Development

[2] P A U L P E A R S A L L , P h . D.; The Heart’s Code. Braodway Books, New York; 1999

[3] https://www.heartmath.org/resources/infographic/mysteries-of-the-heart/

Domestic Commerce: Out of City Retail Parks

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Thu, 15 Aug 2019 05:33:00 +0000

Domestic Commerce:

Out of City Retail Parks

Dr Nasir Javed

As per the Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2018-19, the whole sale and retail services contribute around 18 percent of the GDP, almost as much as agriculture. It still has great potential for growth. A number of interventions can accelerate this growth.

While export oriented growth and foreign exchange reserves are vital for the economy, a much less emphasized & discussed sector is that of domestic commerce. A country with more than 220 millions of people offers a great opportunity for producing and selling domestically that would lead to value addition in goods & services and significant job creation.

Success of shopping malls like The Forum, Dolmen mall, Centaurs, Packages & Emporium etc in the large cities of Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and now even in smaller towns[1] (For example the Mall of Mandi Bahuddin… a 14 story complex in a town of less than half a million) is a proof of the growing demand for this kind of ‘shopping / eating / entertainment combo’. However, almost all of these malls are located on the most precious commercial city center areas, mostly occupied by top brands, that need to be air conditioned and have challenges of car parking & congestion in the neighborhoods. Let’s take this ‘shopping / eating / entertainment combo’ to the open areas.

Pakistan is blessed with at least three strong factors for rapid growth in domestic commerce. One, a very large consumer base of 220 m with at least 50% living in rapidly growing urban areas. Secondly, for most regions of the country our population centers are located close by; forming clusters. The 3^rd factor is the 2000 km of functional Motorways & another 2000 km in the pipeline. These three factors, put together, make a strong case for a flourishing opportunity of domestic retail. This is how it can be leveraged:

The motorways’ and the population clusters around Motorway interchanges offer a golden opportunity for establishing ‘Out of City Retail Parks’. The US, UK and many other countries have developed such parks which offer good attractions, especially over weekends. (The Cribbs Causeway Retail Park Bristol; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cribbs_Causeway). Compared to the west, we still have an advantage of the higher population densities and a large potential to reach a saturation point.

http://www.cushmanwakefield.co.uk/en-gb/case-studies/2017/10/sainsburys-west-end-retail-park

Along most of the built Motorways, we can have this kind of Retail Parks at almost every 200km. The concept is that it should be located close to a Motorway Interchange, within a ‘days trip’ of the major cities / towns. What we need is around 100-300 acres of land close to an interchange. Needed would be basic development of road network and plotting, into 1-3 acres plots, with ample paved surface parking, (paved with pavers like we have on the M2 interchange areas).

Development & Services: Connect the park area to the motorway. There would be large surfaces available for solar panels to generate local electricity. In most areas ground water can be provided. We can easily establish a small waste water treatment plant to make it fit for agricultural purposes for surrounding lands. Rain water could be saved and used for non drinking purposes, making the park a completely environment friendly green facility.

To reduce the ‘entry & exit barriers’, we can offer plots on 10-30 years lease to the retailers, provided they construct within a year. Sale and purchase of plots needs to be banned, to avoid getting investors and speculators into the market. Since it is usually single or double story construction, it could be pre-fabricated and quick to install.

The kind of stores: Clothing stores, factory outlets, furniture shops, handicraft stalls, door/windows and bathroom/kitchen accessory stores, super markets, farmer markets/ itwar bazaar, used car sale markets, car boot sale areas are some of the businesses that would jump to these places, being much less expensive than city center malls. Added would be food courts with outdoor (shaded & open) sitting areas. Even marriage halls can be built for nearby towns & villages.

In addition to the food court areas, there is a need to develop attractive public spaces, with ample free parking and free seating, where people can just sit & relax. On weekends and holidays; there could be other outdoor entertainment opportunities, like Street theater, Musical concerts, Outdoor movies, and much more. The entry would need good controls to provide security and avoid beggars and drug addicts. Shopping addicts would be welcome…. The architecture of the park and especially the entrance gates etc should be reflective of the regional & local culture and not bland western style.

For people who don’t have cars, comfortable buses could operate on regular basis from selected points of the cities in the region.

Each park could generate up to 10,000 direct jobs and many more indirect jobs, with a significant contribution to taxes and GDP. Interestingly, most of the investment is private investment, with minimal burden on the public funds, with much higher returns.

Site selection is a bit of issue that requires careful planning. A spatial analysis using satellite imagery would help in locating the most appropriate sites. Criteria should be that the region (a circle of around 100km radius) should have adequate population; land suitability in terms of water source, cost of land and flood vulnerability etc. Roughly speaking we can have one between Lahore & Islamabad, and one between Islamabad & Peshawar. A very rough estimate has shown that there is around 15-25m population that would be benefited by each of these retail parks…..what a consumer market. Similar areas can be planned for rest of the motorways.

Who would do it: The federal Ministry of commerce has just one bullet point on domestic commerce, which says:

Domestic commerce reforms and development in collaboration with other Ministries, provincial and local governments.[3]

At the provincial level, the Board of Investment and Trade could be made responsible for this kind of intervention that requires a fair amount of fast track processing and management. Local governments would need to be taken on board, for provision of services, master planning and land use governance.

This proliferation of organized retail markets would have a trickle-down effect into smaller towns and rural areas, where retail marketing would be benefited, in terms of the quality of services.

In due course of time, there would be developing small private housing schemes for the people who would have jobs in these parks. Therefore it is important that planning for these areas around the parks be made in the original plan, to avoid mushrooming & slums.

All these interventions can be managed within 2-3 years, and we don’t need any IMF, donors or any huge public sector investments.

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[1] http://www.alasarmallmbdin.com/

[3] Government of Pakistan Rules of Business 1973

Narrowing the Tax Net

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Wed, 10 Jul 2019 17:32:00 +0000

Narrowing the Tax Net

Dr Nasir Javed

Yes. I mean ‘Narrowing the tax net’… not broadening.

A teacher asked his class, what is a ‘Net’… The best answer was, ‘A large number of holes, tied together with many ropes’. In fact it’s the size of ‘holes’ that determines the efficacy of the net. If one wants to catch more fish, the holes are made smaller (narrow) and not wider. Making holes smaller, means putting some more ropes. In terms of Tax –Net, it means more data, data analytics and data integration.

There has been a plethora of discussion on bringing more tax payers into the FBR net and on documentation of the economy. Both these objectives are inter-related and require robust data.

By tax I mean all kind of ‘public dues’… from water rate, to property tax, to provincial duties to all FBR dues. We should target that everyone pays all such dues, user charges and taxes.

Who is a tax payer? In general, taxes are either:

1. Individuals (person based) or

2. Businesses (property based)

Almost all businesses (manufacturing, services, utilities etc) are ‘located somewhere’ in the country. So essentially all tax liabilities can be linked to either a Person or a Property.

Now that we have documented almost all ‘persons’, under CNIC and NADRA data bases, what is needed is to ‘create a similar database of all properties in the country. This requires a ‘central property registry’. That means a comprehensive data base of all properties in the country, just like NADRA has a registry of persons.

And it’s a fairly simple process. The Bureau of Statistics Pakistan has a comprehensive coding system for population census that includes a Province code, a district Code, a tehsil Code and a Mauza code for rural areas and a block code for urban areas. Based on this coding system we can develop a computerized Map based code for ALL property units in the country…. Including all land parcels and all buildings, houses, flats, shops, industries etc. This code would be something like this:

Province		District			Tehsil				City		Ilaqa			Ward		Block		Street		Plot
1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

This registration and coding of properties would be prepared using Satellite Imagery linked GIS based maps, so that NO land parcel / property is missed. Since this is a Spatial Database, we can establish a younger sister of NADRA, called SIDRA. (Spatial Information & Data Registration Authority).

Now all business transactions and dealings with the Governments and their authorities & agencies, (Local, Provincial & Federal) must be linked to this PIN code. The Electricity connection and bills, Gas bills, ptcl, water, bank loans, mortgage, sale-purchase, SECP registration etc MUST include this PIN code in all documentation, permissions, NOC, licenses etc….. just like we use CNIC for all personal transactions.

In Punjab, while computerizing the Urban Property Tax system, this kind of coding has been introduced for more than 4m property units, though currently being used for limited purposes. The SIDRA can easily replicate the system and achieve full documentation in a few years time. Just like CNIC, the SIDRA should issue PIN Cards. (Property Identification Number Cards) and in addition provide every property owner, with a metallic plate of the PIN card to be affixed at the gate / door.

Once this is achieved, we now need to integrate the NADRA data base, with this SIDRA database and that practically means ALL government transactions and business dealings are documented and mapped. So almost all databases and transactions and businesses would be comprehensively documented. Just imagine if an authority knew the location, area, use, utility bills, all business activities, kind of business, etc for each and every property in the country and that too mapped, providing innumerable data analytical opportunities. The data generated from all these data sets would provide excellent triangulation and cross checking that would make it very difficult to avoid any taxation.

This system shall have other benefits as well, in regulating the land and property markets, eliminating fraud and embezzlement and improving revenues of local governments as well. Not only that but mapping and time series analysis of the businesses would help us achieve economic planning and evidence based policy making, including regional GDP and disparities.

Last but not the least, every property owner should be made to pay for the issuance of this PINC, so no loans or public funds are needed and only those would pay who can afford it.

PS: The PIN Card is ONLY for Identification of property and would not be a replacement for ownership documents / Registration deed etc….in the beginning at least.

Going High Rise in Cities

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Sat, 22 Jun 2019 07:35:00 +0000

Going High Rise in Cities

Dr Nasir Javed

The Prime Minister Imran Khan has directed the cities to save agricultural land from further urban development and focus on building high rise instead of urban sprawl.

In principle very good guideline for smart urban planning.

As in most cases, translating a policy principle into corresponding zoning & building regulations is a challenge. It is highly probable that without much expert advice or any kind of analytical work, the Local Governments and Development Authorities would amend the existing bye laws, relaxing the height restrictions in many zones across the city…. The result might be a bigger problem.

It is also probable that some experts and NGOs would start lobbying against this change in bye laws, and insisting on low rise developments, in the name of poor infrastructure, environment and culture. And one conclusion is for sure that both would be just lobbying, with little data or evidence.

The current blog doesn’t offer space for a detailed discussion on the subject, being a complex one and requiring much work. However, I would like to highlight just 2 relevant points.

1: The issue of urban services & utilities: The argument against going high is the lack of urban services and facilities, like road, water, sewerage, drainage and parks etc. Yes. That is a constraint. But in most cases of urban re zoning & redevelopment, the most critical constraint is that of road and mobility, especially in car based cities. All other services can be managed / upgraded.

2: How to prioritize high rise zoning. Currently the LDA regulations permit height on the basis of road width…. unfortunately not a very efficient formula. The solution is to link high rise zones with the routes of mass transit. The Orange line and the BRT lines have the capacity to carry thousands of passengers per hour. However, the most probable commuters on these lines are people who can walk to and from the BRT / OL stations, while commuting from their homes to offices / shops. The evidence suggests that if people have to take multiple vehicles (from home to stop, Speedo, BRT Speedo, walk etc), they are not likely to use the BRT.

Almost all over the developed world, areas within the walking distance of BRT stations are most expensive for this reason and are permitted mix use high density development. The Ahmadabad BRT lines are a classic example, where building bye laws were revised and within five to ten years, the entire landscape transformed into medium to high rise re developments. So did happen in Vancouver and in many other cities.

Lahore has more than 50 BRT/OL stations. Area within a circle of 0.4 -0.6km radius is the golden zone. What the LDA need to do is to carry out a survey of the existing land use for each of the zones around these stations and make a proposal for allowing upto no limit height constructions in this zone. Each of the 50 circles would need to be identified and selected as residential, commercial or mix use, depending upon the location and other factors of urban planning. Each of these zones would be around a 1000 -2000 kanals, of which at least half could be built up area.

Thus we get a high Rise zone of almost 20 - 40,000 kanals of high rise mix use buildings. And the beauty of this development is that since it would be very close to these mass transit lines, would make passenger counts attractive and won’t cause as much car congestion, as would be if high rise are allowed across the city.

Last but not the least, government won’t have to spend money, as enhanced taxation on these lots should be more than enough to pay for the infrastructure upgrade. In fact, the real cost of infrastructure upgrade (the BRT & OL) has already been paid. Now is the time to reap dividends. Perhaps there would be hardly any need for new hosing colonies on green lands for a decade at least.

PS: This doesn’t preclude allowing other areas as medium to high rise zones, but their need would be limited and should be well planned.

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Sun, 14 Apr 2019 18:22:00 +0000

Jobs Creation Strategy:

Linking the Dots

Dr Nasir Javed

The Government had announced creating 10m jobs for the unemployed. Almost a year down the road, we hardly have any strategy or a plan, at least nothing has been stated. A few announcements here and there like Insaaf Rozegaar scheme, some run-of-the-mill loaning program in KP, BISP program, Skill development etc are there, but as they say, ‘business as usual shall lead to results as usual’. What we need is a well thought out comprehensive national level strategy and a well coordinated integrated program that makes a real dent in the unemployment and underemployment at the national level. A full scale game changer and not an NGO led pilot.

What we need is an innovative approach, using all the competencies and positives that we have, woven smartly into a comprehensive plan through a Strategy. What I call Linking the Dots. Dots that we already have and can compete globally and require minimum of government funds and encourage private investment.

Dot 1: Data; As is more often than not the case in Pakistan, we jump to the solution, without adequately defining the problem. So let’s first define the problem of unemployment / underemployment, before we suggest the solution. And here by defining the issue, I mean Data… i.e. numbers and geography. Who is unemployed and where is he/she. There are at least 3 sets of data needed to define the issue.

We need to who is unemployed, know what is their education, what is their skill set, where do they live, and what are they doing now and what are their aspirations. How can we plan to create the jobs, in the absence of this data?

How do we get this data? The answer is let the people tell, and they would, as it’s their need. No traditional route of census, survey or consultancies. Let’s use IT & Web. We need to create a National Database of Unemployed and underemployed population. This requires good software and a Form uploaded on a website, where everyone can enter his/her data. The unique key would be the CNIC number to avoid duplication. Entry Forms should be in English as well as in Urdu and even in Sindhi & other regional languages. For illiterate people, some one can enter data on their behalf, provided CNIC of the verifying person is also entered to ensure correctness of data.

We can complete the database, in less than 3 months, using aggressive marketing through electronic & social media. Government only needs to develop the software and maintain a team for data maintenance.

We can develop all kind of analytics based on this data, to see how many unemployed we have, along with statistics on education, skills, age, sex, & geographical location up to Tehsil level. Looks strange in this era of communications, but the fact is NO Government agency has this kind of figures…. Only guess work.

Once these analytics are available, we can have geographically and thematically targeted job creation strategies.

2nd Dot: Vacancies available, both in the public as well as private sector. The second portal we need is the Vacancies Portal. ALL government jobs must be advertised on this portal, and this would ensure widest publicity and the unemployed won’t miss a chance, as currently the employer may advertise in any of the newspapers, making it difficult to keep a track of the opportunities. Similarly all registered private companies, firms, industries be bound to advertise on the portal, though they would be free to hire and select as per their liking. But the portal would help us develop accurate data about supply & demand.

3rd Dot: Supply side data: We all know that one of the reasons for unemployment is the very serious and significant mis-match between the graduates being produced and the jobs available.

So, another portal should require that all educational and skill development institutions, both in the public as well as in the private sector offering, degree, diploma and certificate level programs and their yearly enrollment data should be entered yearly. This shall help us coordinate the future jobs and the expected new entrants into the job market and for making evidence based policies & strategies.

4th Dot: Identify Niche Market: Let’s focus on one of the sectors. Our Handcrafts potential in the country. This is our competitive advantage, as we have a large rural population and there are hundreds of skills in handcrafts, many of which are unique to us. Starting in the south from Tharparker to the Northern FATA, every district has a unique product. Some examples being Brass work, leather products, wood carving, bamboo baskets, carpets, embroidery, jewelry, salt lamps, truck art decorations etc. This potential has never been utilized to the full rather many of these arts are dying because of lower returns. Let’s develop this sector through an integrated, innovative & aggressive approach.

Yes, we know that even now, many of the websites, NGOs, and even government programs are supporting these handicrafts, but the scale is very limited and not likely to create a national level impact. What we need is innovation in approach. This is the area, where are already have a critical mass of skilled workforce with limited competition, even globally. Here is a portfolio of products that have reasonably high rates of return, even now. With added quality assurance and better designing, packaging & marketing we can take these returns to a still higher rate.

5th Dot: Pak Handcraft Marketplace What the government needs to do is to provide a platform, where the products are marketed and sold across the world. The internet provides an ideal platform. Let the Government sponsor the establishment of a platform like Amazon Marketplace. This is one of the many components of Amazon and here private entrepreneurs sell directly to customers while Amazon is just a connecting platform, providing services. Another example is the Uber & Careem, where all investment in cars is private and they provide a connecting platform. So the handcraft marketplace (www.PakHandicraft Market.com) would provide a similar platform. The artisans would be producing the products and selling on the Marketplace by themselves or through a large number of entrepreneurs, kind of SMEs.

6th Dot: Skill Improvement of Artisans We also need to improve the design and quality of our handicrafts to compete with other countries, like India, Thailand, Vietnam and others. This would require a team of designers and master trainers. We need to use both physical training at skill development centers and TV for lessons. Professionally made training videos in Urdu & regional languages and played extensively on TV would certainly be helpful. Since there would be a demand & competition for quality, these trainings could be provided by the private sector, with some facilitation by Govt.

7th Dot: Entrepreneurs: At universities, we are just producing ‘employees’. Let’s produce entrepreneurs. We need a whole new generation of young entrepreneurs, trained in e-commerce and facilitated through loans and incentives and connected on the PakHandicraftMarketplace. This training program needs innovation. In addition making it as a part of university / college curricula, the lessons developed be placed on the net, as well as on a special TV channel that should just be teaching people, how to use the marketplace and how to sell the products. This TV channel /s should be telecasting these lessons in all languages. TV is such a powerful medium of education and we are not using it.

8th Dot: Marketing Network: We also need to develop a team of professional marketing agents, working for the entrepreneurs & artisans, trained in e-marketing, producing high quality marketing tools and products for the World. This would create numerous jobs / businesses for young graduates.

9th Dot: Supply chains. Once we launch this program, we need to ensure that raw materials & allied products and services are available in abundance. Once a comprehensive & integrated supply chain, from the production of the raw materials, to manufacturing, packing, shipping, marketing etc is developed, there would certainly be many allied jobs giving the program a multiplier effect.

10th Dot: Safeguards: We would need to develop a feedback mechanism from customers, to ensure that our exporters don’t cheat and quality is maintained. This is easy to do on an e-commerce platform, where customers post their feedback.

Handicraft sector be made tax free for at least five years. No GST & no Income Tax.

The beauty of this program is that almost all the investment would be made by the private sector and by small investors. We really don’t need billionaires to invest, rather a very large number of small SMEs spread across the country, would sum up to billions of dollars. These entrepreneurs and network once created and trained, would be able to diversify into other products.

Japan, Thailand, China and Vietnam all had developed One Village One Product type programs and are earning billions of dollars in exports. Why can’t we? Yes, we also started a program by the name of AHAN (Aik Huner, Aik Nagar), a few years ago. But it is just another typical government project, and has made hardly any impact. In fact the website is one of the most pathetic ones and the company is close to bankruptcy, as per latest audit reports. (www.ahan.gov.pk).

We can develop similar programs for other sectors also, provided we have the data and of course the will.

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noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Thu, 28 Mar 2019 13:42:00 +0000

Public Transport in Karachi, The Promises of Bus system

Dr Nasir Javed

A few days ago, there has been a yet another announcement for brining in thousands of buses on the Karachi roads. In the last five years or so, we have seen at least half a dozen public statements, by the provincial ministers and at times by the federal government. In fact, as way back as 2012 perhaps, the Federal PSDP had an allocation of around 8bn for brining in 8000 CNG buses for Karachi, which never arrived. In each case, the Government allocates funds for the purchase of buses, and operations in the public sector. In a few instances, the project did not take off, as the price negotiations failed, for reasons not difficult to guess.

Now, the issue is how to solve this riddle. In my opinion, the Government should not ‘purchase’ buses, rather should leave this to the private sector. One thing that always baffles me is the direct role of ‘operator’ that the Government assumes, and starts running services. Whereas in almost all trading services, where consumers are supposed to pay, the operations should be left to the private sector and the government should regulate the service and may subsidize, if needed.

In case of public transport, if the private sector can provide thousands and thousands of trucks and trailers for transport of goods across the country and even beyond, freely available to the citizens, why is it impossible for it to invest in public transport? The reason is that government tries to regulate the routes and fairs and this leads to chaos, as we see in Karachi. The issue is one of public policy.

The Solution: The Government should strengthen the department of public transport, with the right kind of professionals, data and IT tools. The department should carry out a comprehensive survey of potential bus routes in the city. With the use of mobile apps and social media, it should not take more than a couple of weeks to come up with a reasonable good quality of data that can help us map the routes. Just for clarity, in most of the cities of this kind, there are usually hundreds of routes and thousands of buses. For example, Shenzhen in China has around 19 Metro Light Rail lines, and around 20,000 buses on 1100 routes. The thumb rule is to have one bus for every 2000 of population. By this formula Karachi needs around 8-10,000 buses.

Once the routes are mapped and numbered, the private sector be invited to run the buses on these, after conducting auction of the routes. Every route would have different financial feasibility, depending upon the area and passenger load. The government should fix the fare for all routes, on a per km formula. Since the objective is to provide high quality AC buses across the city, and to keep the fare affordable, there would obviously be need for a subsidy. The basis of auction of the routes would be the amount and level of subsidy asked for each route. The operator asking for the least subsidy gets the route. This of course would be subject to some feasibility study and a benchmark figure.

The department should have a Video wall and IT based monitoring system of every bus movement, using commercially available trackers. This shall ensure that the operator runs the buses as per schedule and covers the full route. Mobile Apps and technology be used for public facilitation and information.

As a rough estimate, operating an AC bus within city costs around 150PKR /KM and an average bus covers around 200km / day. Now assuming that we start with 2000 single Deck AC buses in Karachi, the per day running cost is Rs 30,000/ bus. This includes all operational expenditure, and cost of capital and return on equity and operator s profit etc. This makes almost Rs 10m / bus per year, assuming a slightly reduced operation on holidays. A total of 2000 buses would cost us 20bn rupees per year, providing high quality affordable transport to millions of passengers. Now assuming that the fare can recover at least half of it, the government needs a subsidy of just around Rs 10 bn / year; actual to be decided on the basis of auction. Is this too much for 2000 AC buses?

As a policy, we should encourage the local manufacturers to upgrade their facilities and provide us with high quality buses, comparable to imported ones. This would further boost our industry and employment. If can imagine the public benefit of these 2000 buses in Karachi, which later on can be increased to 8,000 in over say a period of five years, so that we can significantly reduce the traffic load and pollution. And all investment would be private, with of course loans from the banks, which should discourage car loans and prefer public transport.

What we need is right kind of public policies and private sector investments and operations, and empower the Government to act as regulator and not operator, that takes ages to just purchase buses.

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5 Million Houses

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 04:26:00 +0000

The first 100 days plan of the PTI Govt says ‘Launch the Prime Minister’s Housing program, to build 5 million housing units for the middle and lower income segments in 5 years through the private sector. This will boost industry, create jobs and provide shelter.

Very good intentions. The challenge is how to do it?

First, let’s define and analyze the Problem / Issue that we need to solve. More often than not, we start discussing and even implementing the “solution’ before stating the problem. The State bank (2015) and other agencies estimate a ‘shortage’ of around 9 m houses in the country, with an additional yearly unmet demand of 300,000. My question is, ‘Where are these people living at the moment? On the street. Perhaps NO. This is actually a latent demand, people living in slums, low quality housing, overcrowding, make shift tin sheet roofs in lower income areas, men working in cities and families in village etc etc. The point is that whatever housing we develop should be of at least a reasonable quality / standard and yet affordable. Creating poor quality and crowded houses in the shape of 2 marla units, incremental housing & such like make shift schemes are more likely to end up in slums, as have many initiatives in the past.

2^nd; the Housing Market; most of the housing in Pakistan is provided by the private sector through a semi regulated (I would say, wrongly regulated ) market mechanism. The market however, caters mostly to the upper middle and upper segments of society, where there is abundance of developed plots / houses available, while for middle and lower income families, there is a dearth of affordable units. It makes more sense to analyze and initiate policy & Regulatory reforms in the Housing & Land market that should tilt the balance in favour of middle and lower income segments. This could be supported by a program of providing housing units in the lower range, using some targeted subsidies, either in land development or financing. My suggestion is that both Policy & Regulatory reforms and housing projects need to be implemented simultaneously, with a time horizon of five years, to achieve the objective.

3^rd; we have promised Providing Houses which should be differentiated from ‘plots’’. A house could be a standalone unit, or a rented apartment in a multistory building. Since cost and availability of developed land at suitable places are key challenges, I would strongly advise to build apartments, on state land, which s lent on 50 years lease. Providing affordable shelter should be the objective, including rental apartments; against the erstwhile dream of a plot and owned house, that has created the shortage. In most of the developed world, upto 50% families live on rental housing, while we have around 10%. We need to facilitate & encourage rental housing.

4^th; we should be clear, houses for whom? As per the 100 days plan, it’s for middle and lower income segments. Very well targeted, as this is the segment with the highest gap between the supply and demand, while there is abundance of housing options for the higher income families which being the most profitable segment, is the darling of formal private sector. So we need to build houses of a range of income from lower to middle and hence careful market segmentation is needed.

5^th; point is where to build these houses. Two step analysis; which cities and where within the city? My suggestion is to carry out a brief study on assessment of the need, as probably it’s more acute in large cities, compared to smaller ones and rural areas, so focus these cities rather than spreading across the country. Within the Cities, there is less likelihood of finding state land for housing, and whatever is available is at the peripheries or away from jobs. This location would be less attractive and would lead to further sprawl and hence counterproductive. Much better option is to use already developed land that should be within the city boundaries and closer to jobs and markets.

6^th; point is to opt for Urban Redevelopment rather than green field projects. Wahdat Colony Lahore is a prime example, where 2000 kanals of state land is occupied by just 1800 very low quality 70 years old quarters. This should be redeveloped, into medium and hi rise apartments and commercial properties. This would not only provide thousands of houses, including the current occupants, but significant economic activity and would pay for itself. This kind of derelict housing and underutilized lands are available in almost all the cities. Target families like Government officers of BPS 1-14, in Education, Railways, Health etc could be preferred, especially on departmental lands. This would also help to target lower income families. Dozens of Kachi abadies on state land also exist, which could be redeveloped in the second phase, once the occupants get a confidence that if they vacate, they would get a house.

7^th; point is the kind of housing. Suggested that instead of single story houses, it should be apartments, ranging from 1000 to 2000 feet, as any housing below this would not be quality housing. If the land is state land, and is not charged to cost of housing, the average cost would be from 2m to 4m @ 2000 /ft. An apartment building of G+4 is possible without lift, while a 2000 ft apartment can be managed even in G+8 buildings, as maintaining lifts and amenities could be affordable for this segment. Most of these buildings could be multi use, with shops at ground floor and offices at 1^st & 2^nd floors & apartments on 3^rd, 4^th & 5th. Good design is needed to ensure quality of social life. Even some manufacturing activities could be allowed in some buildings, like garment stitching, software houses, call centers, computer assembly etc; largely non polluting, non noise producing units, where females can commute and work in safety. This mix use would not only add to economic activity, but would also reduce load on commercial activity in residential areas. Jobs and shopping at walking distance would reduce burden on traffic and congestion. For complexes of more than a 1000 apartments, all associated amenities like Mosque, schools, Marriage halls, Gym, and playing grounds etc would be ideal and would generate revenue. All commercial development within the Project would be subsidizing the redevelopment cost, if done smartly.

To make sure that the smaller units remain with the lower income people, a 3 bedroom flat should have just one or maximum 2 Washrooms, and absolutely no facility for car parking, just for cycles and motor cycles. Exposed wiring and pipes also reduce the cost of maintenance, and can look quite decent, if properly done.

8^th; issue is the financing of these houses. In my opinion, this should be from prospective owners, some down payment, and installments after Bank financing. Considering the current land & housing markets, a decent house in PKR 2-4m @ Rs 2000 / sq ft; and that too with financing is quite affordable, especially if within city limits. However to make it more affordable, Government may just subsidize the cost of financing, bringing it to the range of 5-7 %. In case of Government employees, their Pension / Gratuity etc could add to the financing.

9^th; point is the Institutional Reforms; Instead of jumping to making a new authority (Pakistan Housing Authority etc), we should carefully assess the existing institutions, which are numerous, with overlapping functions and idle capacities. Let’s try to refurbish / use existing ones, after suitable reforms and capacity enhancement.

For maintaining multistory apartments, an absolute must is the Condominium law, that protects their ownership rights and makes Owners’ associations mandatory, regulated by a Divisional level registration authority. This will prevent these units from becoming derelict and dirty, as usually happens.

10^th; is the Policy reforms that would not only facilitate this project, but would expand the Housing & land market in general and make it affordable for majority, ushering in a large scale construction boom, which in the medium to long term should minimize the shortage. Reforms include; Computerized Urban Land records to improve the quality of titles and make them bankable. Making the property tax rate same for self occupied and rental properties, which is currently five times higher. Incentivizing house building and renting and discouraging / taxing open land and plot hoarding for speculation. Reforming the building regulations in the large cities to allow medium and high rise development, unlike the current 38 ft restriction. Declaring special development zones within a radius of 400m around all mass transit stations in major cities. Master planning of all cities above 100,000 population, and promulgating provincial Planning Act. Reforming and updating the National Reference Manual & National Building Codes which are outdated. Reforming the Building Control & Zoning Regime, using private sector Licensed Building Control officers for meaningful implementation. Making Fire Insurance mandatory for all commercial and high rise buildings, to ensure that standards are implemented. A kind of comprehensive Urban Land & Housing Reforms is need of the hour.

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Nasir Javed) — Sun, 30 Sep 2018 11:57:00 +0000

Dear Friends,

I have created this blog "DIAGONAL VIEW" to share my thoughts and ideas on some of the most serious issues that our country faces today. In my experience of over 30 years practical life, mostly in the Development sector, what I have observed is that in general, the Political, Bureaucratic and even professional decision makers take a straight line view of the world and try to follow the path of least resistance in decision making. The result is that 'business as usual' would of course lead to result as usual. There is a need to look at our problems, and issues in a non traditional manner and hence the title, Diagonal View.

I plan to post a daily blog on a different development issue.