These two disaster activities are entirely different in scope, function, goals, and timing. The main and most important difference is in timing.  Warnings come BEFORE a disaster event impacts, and first “response” comes AFTER a disaster event impacts. This difference may seem obvious, but is often ignored by media and in general discussions.

Both activities are very important when disaster occurs to minimize population impacts. When effective early warnings are in place, the need for first responders becomes less important. Unfortunately most communities place all of their resources and attention on first response activities because of tradition and misunderstanding of the important differences. There are many reasons for this including:

A) Most communities allocate resources based on political considerations rather than economic or technical factors. First Responders are almost universally governmental or quasi-governmental and have high degrees political and historical clout with communities. These are expected and understood influences on community decision making.
B) Finally and maybe most importantly, there is often a high degree of “condescension” from political decision makers about the ability of general population groups to receive and act properly to the delivery of disaster early warnings.

The hard truth is that this unwillingness to trust general populations to “act appropriately” to the delivery of disaster early warnings is the primary reason those early warnings are unavailable in almost all areas.

Under the public mask of caring lies an inability or unwillingness to trust the general public.
- People will panic and not know what to do !
- People will panic and do the wrong thing !
- They hurt others with their actions !
- We might send warnings to the wrong people !
- What if we warning them and they die anyway !
- Just a few of many typical comments from public decision makers.

So, even if these fears are sometimes true, how do we as a society justify withholding effective early warnings for general populations in the event of natural and manmade disasters?  What do you think ?

Any truly effective disaster warning system will need
to transmit warnings through wireless point to multipoint networks.

Successful implementation of this system will have a tremendous impact
on the size, scope, and usage for today’s wireless industry.

The implemented warning system will:

1. Eliminate mobility as the prime rationale for wireless usage.
2. Create a huge public safety rationale.
3. Minimize tower siting, regulatory, and licensing issues.
4. Provide a huge number of strategic partner opportunities.

An effective disaster warning system will need to aggregate real time information about disasters as they occur from a wide variety of sources, and will transmit early warning signals to exactly, and to only, those users in danger before they are impacted.  These early warning signals will create both human and automated responses well before disaster impact to people, businesses, schools, hospitals, and public places.

The technology model will integrate remote sensing, localization, geographic information systems, embedded intelligence, and networked wireless communications. The model will work with any or all point to multi-point wireless networks.

The wireless industry will see a dramatic increase in devices, users, and applications far outstripping current usage.  Implementation of the patents will drive truly universal wireless usage and create entirely new markets for both mobile and fixed wireless devices.  Wireless carriers will finally have a universally used value added application that will dramatically reduce churn, increase market size, and provide tower site and public service justification. And, all of this will happen without requiring any major new infrastructure for carriers.

An effective disaster warning network will allow new device applications that will quickly be enabled by manufacturers because of the high value added to the products with almost no additional manufacturing cost. It will allow duplication of the universal success and implementation of fire and smoke alarms in homes, businesses, and public places. Fire and smoke alarm systems quickly became mandatory more than 40 years ago because they effectively and efficiently saved lives and property during fires.   A truly effective disaster warning network will be an order of magnitude more effective and efficient as a highly scalable wireless network protecting lives and property from a wide variety of natural and manmade disasters.

What do you think?

Disaster Early Warnings

We do have the technology and the social and economic need to create effective disaster early warning systems in all modern societies.  And yes,  the “conventional wisdom” is that Governments or insurance companies should build them!  The fact remains obvious that neither governments nor insurance companies have built suchs systems nor are they ever likely to do so. 

Governments will not do this because the people who actually make government policy and spending decisions have very little political incentive to create a disaster warning network that can save lives and reduce property damages.  The risks and challenges in actually creating such a system far exceed the small potential political gain by decision makers. Governments do however achieve substantial political benefit from disaster planning and repeated calls for future action.  Politicians always find that disaster recovery funding gets a lot more political support for them than prevention of death and property loss.  Standing on a soapbox and writing disaster relief checks is the long preferred method of dealing with disasters.  Long term actions required for implementation of an effective early warning network create minimal political gain and therefore are not likely to ever be accomplished.  This is the sad reality, but reality is not an optional choice. 

Insurance companies will not build or fund disaster warning systems because they operate as individual entities. Each individual insurance company has no economic incentive to reduce overall deaths and property damages in society.  Insurance companies insure risk.  With less risk, there will be less to insure.  There is no “common” good served for any one company to create and implement a warning system and they have no framework for cooperative actions of this type.  It is not a core competency of insurance companies. Their profit motive is not served for all risk to be reduced, only the risk for each companies insured’s.

Opportunity is created by the ability and willingness to solve major problems in people’s lives. The time has come to build an effective Disaster Warning Network.  What do you think?

IN THE PAST -  warnings for natural disasters such as tornadoes, lightning storms, floods, tsunamis, or earthquakes, first came when a person saw looming danger in the nearby sky, watched water rise around them, or felt the ground move from under their feet.   

For most of mankind’s history, this is the way natural disasters were detected.  This method of detection gave very little opportunity for people to seek shelter and avoid death or injury.   Unfortunately, for most people in today’s world, this is still the only means of detecting and reacting to the occurrence of disasters. Even in modern “industrial” information economies we still have only rudimentary warning mechanisms for weather related disasters and no systems in place for warnings of seismic or other disasters to general populations.  

Disasters occur in all countries around the world with great regularity.  They are an accepted fact of life for all the peoples of the world. Natural disasters occur at unpredictable times and in unpredictable ways and have led to an acceptance of the results. As individuals, our main strategies are to hope we are lucky enough to avoid their occurrence, or failing this to mitigate the effects of the disasters by building stronger and safer structures for protection.  

Neither our hopes for luck nor our efforts to build stronger shelters have proved altogether successful. Most experts claim that the world’s population is at an ever-increasing risk of death, injury, and property damages from natural disasters.  As population and housing densities increase, the world will continue to experience ever increasing danger and damages from natural disasters.  Deaths, injuries, and loss of property will continue to increase around the world from the effects of natural disasters unless changes are made in the manner we respond.

TECHNOLOGY IS NOW AVAILABLE – Over the last several decades’ scientists have made great strides in understanding the causative effects of these natural disasters that so impact lives. Much of the mystery surrounding these events is now gone. Although we cannot yet predict these disasters with any degree of confidence, we now have the technical ability to detect and track them with a great deal of accuracy. Most modern societies have begun development of networks of sensors to detect the occurrence of these disasters.  

Lightning detection and warnings

For example; the USA has in place a large scale system of lightning detectors that can sense and record a wide variety of real time information about lightning strikes occurring over most of the country. There is in place or currently under construction a national system of Doppler radar installations which were primarily designed for airline traffic safety but also are well able to detect, track, and record the exact movement, direction, and magnitude of tornadoes.  

The USA also has in place a large system of ocean buoys and a satellite network that is able to detect even minor changes in ocean heights to track the movement of tsunami’s through the oceans of the earth. A national system of rainfall gauges is also able to measure real time rainfall amounts over large portions of the continental USA. A significant number of seismographic devices are currently in place in seismically active portions of the country to detect in real time all earthquakes as they occur.   

These technologies are tested, currently available, and in place in various locations, to detect these natural disasters as they occur in real time.  Analog sensors and detectors have made the same tremendous advances in sophistication and sensitivity that we have seen in the digital arena during the last twenty years.  Our ability to “see” the world and natural events around us has been greatly extended and enhanced with these new technologies. We now no longer need be restricted to viewing the nearby sky with our eyes to see the danger from weather events. We no longer have to wait for the ground under our feet to move to know that an earthquake has happened nearby.

A PARADIGM SHIFT IS NEEDED  -  We have witnessed an amazing transformation in our technical ability to detect, analyze, and communicate information about natural disasters during the last two decades.  In the digital world of computers, we have seen a tremendous increase in the amount and type of data that is available.   This same huge increase in “data” is also now available from the various analog sensor/detector technologies.   Data from a wide variety of sources is now easily obtainable with current technologies. We can now detect in real time a wide variety of natural disasters as they occur.  

A correspondingly large increase in the capabilities of today’s modern communication technologies also allows virtually instantaneous transfer of this information from anywhere to anywhere in the world.  All of the “data” that we can now collect on natural disasters must first be converted to “information” in real time as it happens.  The analysis of this data must be completely automated and done in real time to eliminate human errors and wasted time.   Finally, the information concerning these natural disasters must be communicated in real time without error or false alarms to provide advanced warnings to the maximum number of potentially impacted users that is possible.  When this is accomplished, we will have an effective warning system for natural disasters.

WHAT WE “KNOW” ABOUT NATURAL DISASTERS
1)  We know disasters cannot be predicted in advance of the actual occurrence.
2) We know the technology exists to detect these natural disasters as they first occur.
3) We know the technology exists to measure and record the magnitude, intensity, speed, and direction of these disasters in almost real time.
4) We know a multitude of actions that can be taken to lessen and mitigate the damaging effects of natural disasters if we can provide effective advanced warnings.  
5) We know that we can save many more lives and greatly reduce injuries and property damages with a more effective system of advanced warnings for natural disasters.

WHAT DO YOU THINK ?

Popular media are ripe with stories about technologies or individuals that are able to predict earthquakes.  Let us agree that you have developed the world’s best earthquake prediction method.

My “prediction” is that unless your predictive ability is 100 percent accurate and correct for every earthquake, your “discovery” will gather a lot of dust in your heir’s closets.  Bottom line is that most societies just will not allow the massive economic and social chaos that would attend a less than “100% perfect” prediction system.

• So you really are a “human sensitive” or,
• You have a barnyard full of “animal sensitives”, or
• You have developed a perfect and mathematically elegant analysis algorithm to correlate physical variables such as “moon phase”, “dew points”, planet conjunctions, occurrence frequency cycles, or some other “triggering” process that was previously unknown until you discovered it.
• Perhaps, you have developed the perfect stain/stress instrumentation device and correlated that with your heuristic neural network software program, or
• You rediscovered ancient shaman ”knowing” and can now predict earthquakes in advance of their occurrence.

What now??  What happens after you get the Nobel Prize and your hat size grows an inch or two? How will your new discovery help your fellow travelers on this ever-fracturing rock whizzing around the sun?

Even totalitarian states cannot continually evacuate large population groups without a perfect prediction system. Seismic predictive systems are great sources of  governmental grants, media discussions, debate, and entertainment, but will not become part of any real life mechanism to reduce deaths, injuries, or property damages resulting from earthquakes.  Like Horoscopes – have fun with them anyway. 

I urge concentrating our efforts on the possible and focusing on sending immediate early warnings when earthquakes are occuring saving lives and dramatically reducing property damages.

Governments everywhere feel a public mandate to protect populations from the dangers of natural and manmade disaster events.  To this end, modern societies are routinely delivered press release driven mass media puff pieces about how well they are protected against the various kinds of natural and manmade disasters.

How do we know when a government is truly delivering on its committments and promises? How do we know we have effective protection? What would be required if effective early warning systems were indeed in place? How can we know?

Any truly effective disaster early warning system must include the following elements in place and working in combination:

1. The primary delivery method for warning signals must be wireless (R/F), point to multipoint.
   It is imperative that the warning signals be sent and received in “real time” and over systems that will be the most robust and most reliable during large scale disaster events.Landlines (Public Switched Networks) do not have real time capacity or robustness required for directed real time warnings to large numbers of users during disasters.  Internet related (Ethernet) systems are subject to overload, power failures, and significant latency (delays) during disasters.
2. Receiving devices must be always capable of receiving early warning transmissions.
   Receiving devices must always to receive a signal and initiate immediate mitigation responses. R/F signal must have priority access over other transmissions with priority overrides and/or short burst packets. Receivers must have battery power capability during times of power interruptions.
3. The System must include a wide variety of receiving devices capable of generating both human and automated responses.
   Different disasters require different levels and types of responses. Some disasters such as earthquakes have very short warning times requiring completely automated responses between sensors, activators, and a hierarchy of controlling computers to properly mitigate damages without human intervention. With “quick twitch” short warning period disasters such as earthquakes, human responses need to be backed up with pre-programmed responses from devices to act when human responses are not available, reliable, or effective.
4. The System must perform real time data collection and pattern analysis for all types of natural and manmade disasters to enable effective early warnings for all potential threats.
    This creates an “All Hazard Warning” capability and provides a single delivery source to prevent duplication of hazard warning devices for users and standardized responses for more effective human interface.
5. The System must eliminate false warnings.
   Elimination of false warnings maximizes authenticity of warnings when received.  Effective warnings require those warned to have a high degree of certainty that their life and/or property are in danger so that warnings are not ignored. When warned, they respond. Warnings must be sent only to those users in actual danger from a disaster event in progress.
6. The System must eliminate failed warnings.
   Early warnings must always be given when needed. An effective early warning system requires users to have a high degree of certainty that warnings will always be issued when danger is present.  This requires:
   -  Real time knowledge of the magnitude, location, speed, and direction, of all disaster events.  
   -  Real time knowledge of location information (long/lat) for all system users. 
   -  Every type of hazard must be analyzed. 
   -  Real time processing capability must be available to determine all users, and only those users, in actual danger from a disaster event before impact to users.

What do you think? What is missing? What is unnecessary?

This post from a summaryof an earlier article entitled Effective Disaster Early Warning Systems in the 21st Century.

Posted from previous article on Disaster Early Warnings in the 21st Century

WHAT IF – you are in your home, workplace, shopping in a market, asleep in your bed, in a car or public transportation, or simply watching television, and

• An earthquake occurs in your area
• A tornado or violent wind storm is heading your way
• A severe lightning storm is nearing your location
• A tanker truck or rail car loaded with a toxic liquid overturns near you and the deadly fumes are heading your way
• A Tsunami has started 500 kilometers away and is going to impact the beach near your location

ARE YOU – likely to receive any kind of effective early warning that could save your life from the effects of these disasters ?

The simple and often tragic answer is NO… And now we have the chance to make a change.

FACTS – Billions of dollars are properly spent each year for necessary mitigation responses by police, fire, military, and emergency personnel to save lives and property from the damaging effects of both natural and manmade disasters. The vast majority of these efforts are all directed to reducing the impact on people and property after a disaster has occurred. These efforts are effective and have great real value.

Until this time, however, very little effort is made to mitigate disasters before their impact. All first responders’ claim the first few minutes after a disaster are the most important time to reduce the impact on people and property. Correct information and fast response are of utmost importance when responding to disasters after they occur.

We know from experience the last few minutes before the impact of a disaster are also of utmost importance to reduce the effects on people and property. It is the last few minutes before disaster impact when actions can be taken to avoid or lessen effects. Duck, cover, escape, hide, move, close up, slow, and stop, are some of the many responses we can take when confronted by disasters. Coal mine canaries, church & temple bells, air raid sirens, and smoke alarms, set the early warning standards for past generations. They were effective for their time and now it is time to create a truly effective early warning system for the 21st century.

How do we do this? -  Technology has changed – We now enjoy a convergence of enabling technologies allowing effective early warnings for almost all kinds of natural and manmade disasters. This intersection of existing technologies now makes it possible to receive warnings and respond to these disasters before their impact in a highly effective manner to dramatically reduce their impact on our lives.

 WHAT IS REQUIRED ? – A truly effective early warning system requires that we fully utilize our existing technologies. Failure to provide adequate early warning of disasters is a failure of of imagination and  of ALL societies to recognize their ethical and moral obligations to their members.

An effective early warning system requires ALL of the following conditions to be met:
Early warnings must be delivered:

• For all natural and all manmade disasters
• At all times, to all places, and most importantly, ONLY to those in need
• To any and all devices capable of creating a successful mitigation

Much more to come in a later post !  - What do you think ?

Tornado warnings

What would you do if you received a warning that a tornado was approaching  and was very likely to hit your location within the next 5 to 8 minutes?  Is this enough time to take effective actions?  Could these actions lead to saving your life or eliminating injuries to you and those around you?

What is an EFFECTIVE early warning ?  How should it be delivered to insure everyone has the warning in a timely manner?  

Why do most people who have been hit by tornadoes not receive tornado siren warnings or local radio/TV warnings ?  

Why do most people who have been hit by tornado and did hear a warning siren or local new/TV station alert admit that they ignored or did not pay attention to these warnings?

Earthquake Warnings - Why Not ?

Can we provide effective Earthquake early warnings?

As in Life, it always seems as if the “Questions” are the really important part of creating change.  The “Answers” appear to be easy once the right questions are asked.  

The certainty remains that the right answers will not be found if the right questions are not asked…..  And so we make use of “inquiry” to work toward solutions.  In keeping with this theme:

• Is it possible to provide effective early warnings for disasters that will reduce deaths and injuries?
• Why don’t we have effective early warnings for a large number of natural and manmade disasters that impact thousands of lives around the world each year?

This blog is intended to allow us look into these questions together. 
Please join in this endeavor to create a safer world for us all.

Here is my philosophy on Disaster Early Warnings. 

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ?