Dismal.com: Indicators, Global

Switzerland: Consumer Price Index

Fri, 3 Jul 2009 08:15 GMT

Deflationary pressures are persisting in Switzerland. Although the consumer price index rose a modest 0.2% m/m in June, in annual terms prices contracted a further 1%. The Swiss National Bank will forge ahead with currency interventions in a bid to deter imported deflationary pressures.

Malaysia: Foreign Trade

Fri, 3 Jul 2009 06:00 GMT

Malaysia recorded a 10.02 billion ringgit surplus in May, after a 7.36 billion ringgit trade surplus in April.

Euro Zone: Retail Trade

Fri, 3 Jul 2009 05:00 GMT

Retail sales fell by more than expected in May. Sales contracted 0.4% m/m, after rising by a revised 0.1% in April. Moody's Economy.com and the market had expected a more moderate contraction of 0.1%. In annual terms, the drop in sales accelerated to 3.3% in May from a revised fall of 2.5% in the previous month. Retail sales will remain weak in coming months, as household spending is weighed down by rising unemployment and still-tight credit conditions.

Spain: Industrial Production

Fri, 3 Jul 2009 03:00 GMT

Spain's industrial output contracted by more than expected in May. Manufacturing output declined by 20.5% in year ago terms after dropping by a revised 19.4% in April. Moody's Economy.com had expected an 18% contraction, while the market was expecting a more moderate decline of 16.4%. The downturn in the housing market and in fixed investment spending has crippled output of durable consumer goods and capital goods. With joblessness rising quickly and credit conditions in the business sector tight, demand for manufactured goods will continue to unravel.

United States: ECRI Weekly Leading Index

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 10:30 GMT

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index remained at 117.6 for the week ending June 26, with no revisions to the prior week. The smoothed, annualized growth rate rose to 4%, from an unrevised 2.1%. The growth rate has been steadily heading higher, indicating a return to growth later this year.

United States: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 10:30 GMT

Working gas in underground storage rose by 70 billion cubic feet during the week ending June 26. The consensus estimate was for an increase of 75 bcf.

United States: Factory Orders (M3)

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 10:00 GMT

New orders for manufactured goods rose 1.2% in May, following a 0.5% increase in April. The 1.8% increase in durable goods orders was unrevised, and nondurable goods orders rose 0.7%. Shipments of durable goods fell 2.5% over the month, revised to show a larger decline than the 2.1% drop reported a week ago. Unfilled orders fell 0.2%, and inventories were down 0.6%. The I/S ratio held steady at 1.45 months.

Canada: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-North America

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 09:40 GMT

The U.S. future inflation gauge for June increased to 81.9, from its previous 79.7. The smoothed annualized growth rate rose to -18.5% from -27.1%. The U.S. FIG has recorded three straight gains, and though remaining low by historical standards may be starting to point to some budding inflation pressures down the road.

United States: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-North America

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 09:40 GMT

United States: Employment Situation

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 08:30 GMT

The labor market performed considerably worse than had been expected in June. The disappointing report highlights the severity of the downturn and suggests a bottom for employment is not near. Payroll employment fell by 467,000, following a loss of 322,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged higher, to 9.5%. Goods-producing industries contracted by 223,000 jobs, while private service-producing industries shed a net 192,000 positions. Government payrolls fell by 52,000.

United States: Jobless Claims

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 08:30 GMT

Initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased 16,000 to 614,000 for the week ending June 27. Continuing claims fell 53,000 to 6.702 million for the week ending June 20, though this overstates labor market improvement due to benefit exhaustion. There are signs of mild labor market improvement, but there remains a significant way to go.

Brazil: Industrial Production

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 08:00 GMT

The pace of the industrial contraction is slowing as the domestic market responds to policy stimulus. The index of industrial production reported a contraction of 9.9% in May, after a fall of 12.2% in April, according to seasonally adjusted figures. National industry is still influenced by the weak external demand.

Euro Zone: Monetary Policy

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 07:45 GMT

As expected, the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged. Since May, it has kept its key policy interest rate at a historical low of 1%. Despite some positive signs of economic stabilization, the central bank remains cautious over the outlook and is unlikely to change its forecast for GDP and inflation. We expect the ECB to keep its main interest rate unchanged through the rest of the year.

Western Europe: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-Europe

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 05:45 GMT

Price pressures fell further in the euro zone and the U.K. in May. The ECRI future inflation gauge for the euro zone declined to 81.7 in May from 82.3 previously, whilst the U.K. gauge fell to 98.6 from 98.7. Tight monetary supply and a rise in the number of unemployed were seen as major factors in easing price pressures. We expect a short period of disinflation to occur during the summer.

Euro Zone: Industrial Producer Prices

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 05:00 GMT

Industrial producer prices in the euro zone fell by the fastest pace on record in May. The headline measure fell 5.8% on a year-ago basis, the largest drop since the data series began in 1981, following a 4.6% decline in April. The main driver was a fall in energy prices. Industrial producer prices in the euro zone will remain weak for the rest of this year as the price of energy stays relatively low and the recession dampens domestic, demand-driven inflationary pressures.

Euro Zone: Unemployment Rate

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 05:00 GMT

Unemployment in the euro zone climbed in May and came in higher than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the highest rate in almost a decade, from a revised 9.3% in April. This was the 11th consecutive monthly rise, and joblessness is expected to increase into 2010 as the euro zone will remain in recession for most of 2009.

Sweden: Monetary Policy

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 03:30 GMT

Sweden's Riksbank cut its main repo rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% in July. The Swedish economy remains in a recession, whilst inflationary pressures are falling sharply. The bank hopes a cut in the interest rate to near zero will ease the sharp downturn in the economy.

Russian Federation: GDP

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

The Russian economy nose-dived in the first quarter of 2009. GDP contracted 9.8%, after growing 1.2% in the three months to December, and is well below the 8.7% expansion recorded in the first quarter of 2008. Exports and investment are contracting sharply amid weak global demand for key energy exports and tight credit conditions. Tight borrowing conditions combined with the loosening labour market are cooling consumption. Government spending will be an important driver of the economy this year. GDP is nonetheless expected to report its worst performance since the 1998 crisis.

Uruguay: Consumer Price Index

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

Uruguayan inflation grew 6.48% y/y in June down from 6.63% y/y in May. June marks the sixth consecutive month of decelerating inflation. The slowing increase in prices is being driven by the global recession that has lowered consumer demand. Slower price increases in housing and food led to the deceleration in prices.

Australia: Foreign Trade

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 21:30 GMT

Australia recorded its second successive monthly trade deficit in May. The balance on goods and services was a deficit of A$556 million, following from April�s (downwardly revised) A$282 million deficit.

United States: Oil and Gas Inventories

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 10:30 GMT

Crude oil inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels during the week ending June 26, according to the Energy Information Administration, below expectations of a 2 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels, a tad ahead of expectations of a 2 million barrel build. Distillate inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels, surpassing expectations. Refinery operating capacity unexpectedly fell from 87.1% to 87%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose modestly. This report supports higher oil prices.

United States: Case-Shiller� Home Price Indexes

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 10:00 GMT

The Case-Shiller� Home Price Indexes indicate great downward pressure on house prices in the first quarter. The CSI declined on a quarter-over-quarter basis in eight of the nine Census divisions, with the decline worsening compared with the previous quarter in five divisions. Prices in the Mountain and South Atlantic states fell the fastest. The only region where prices appreciated was the East South Central. The decline in the national house price index was marginally worse than the fourth quarter decline but is the worst on record.

United States: Construction Spending (C30)

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 10:00 GMT

Construction spending for May came in 0.9% below revised April totals and 11.6% below May 2008 totals. Both private and public construction spending decreased in May. Private construction spending was down by 1% from April, thanks entirely to a 3.4% decline in residential construction spending compared with the previous month. Public construction spending fell 0.6% below the revised April levels, as federal stimulus spending has not yet compensated for declining state construction spending. The construction numbers for May, partly due to undergoing an annual revision, indicate that total construction has not yet started to recover.

United States: ISM Manufacturing Index

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 10:00 GMT

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index gained 2 points in June to 44.8. The gradual improvement in the ISM index suggests that the worst of the manufacturing contraction is behind us. The details of the report were much more upbeat than the headline number would suggest. The most encouraging was a 6.4-point increase in the employment index. Also, production improved, while customer inventories fell in June. The ISM index should rise above 50 over the next few months, indicating a modest expansion in manufacturing.

United States: Pending Home Sales

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 10:00 GMT

Contracts signed to purchase existing homes were little changed between April and May, rising just 0.1% to 90.7. The slight rise follows an upwardly revised 7.1% surge in contract signings in April, one of the largest increases in the index's history. Pending sales rose in the Northeast and the West but fell in the Midwest and the South.

United States: Challenger Report

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 07:30 GMT

Announced job cuts fell to 74,393 in June�the lowest tally in 15 months. Job cuts have been falling every month since January, although cuts are typically lowest in the second quarter. The downward trend is nonetheless consistent with easing layoffs seen in other measures such as initial jobless claims.

United States: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 07:00 GMT

In the week ending June 26, the MBA mortgage application index slipped 18.9%. The composite index is posting a year-to-date low of 444.8. The refinance index fared just as poorly. Refinances fell 30% to 1,482.2. Meanwhile, the purchase index fell "only" 4.5% this week to finish at 267.7.

Indonesia: Foreign Trade

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 04:20 GMT

Indonesia�s trade surplus (inclusive of trade zones) fell in May to $1.4 billion from $2.1 billion in April. Rising commodity prices and a weak rupiah by historical standards have helped to boost Indonesia�s exports in recent months, while rebounding domestic demand has led to imports improving.

Vietnam: Foreign Trade

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 03:00 GMT

The General Statistics Office released preliminary foreign trade figures for the month of June, indicating Vietnam recorded a deficit of around US$1.2 billion during the month. This follows a (revised) US$1.254 billion deficit in May.

India: Foreign Trade

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 02:30 GMT

India's trade deficit widened slightly from US$5 billion in April to US$5.2 billion in May. Both exports and imports remained lacklustre. However, the sharper fall in import payments has helped to contain the trade deficit.

Germany: Retail Sales

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 02:00 GMT

Retail sales in Germany unexpectedly rose for the third month in a row in May, as low inflation and signs of economic stabilization boosted consumer confidence. Sales volumes rose by 0.4% m/m, following a rise of 0.5% in April. Moody�s Economy.com expected a 0.2% fall. However, with the German economy in recession and unemployment rising, household confidence and retail sales will be tested in coming months.

South Korea: Consumer Price Index

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 00:30 GMT

Consumer prices rose by 2% y/y in June compared with an increase of 2.7% y/y in the month prior.

United States: Monster Employment Index

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 00:05 GMT

The Monster employment index gave up 1 point between May and June, falling to a level of 117. The decline, which follows a 2-point decrease in May, brings the index 28.2% below its year-ago level. Over the month, online help-wanted ads fell in two of the nine census divisions. Further, online ads fell in nine of the 20 industries tracked by the index. The report suggests hiring will remain dormant in coming months.

Peru: Consumer Price Index

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

Peru's annual inflation decelerated faster than expected in June amid lower food prices. Lima's consumer price index�widely used as a proxy for Peru's consumer inflation�dropped 0.34% m/m in June, down from a 0.77% increase a year earlier. As a result, annual inflation dropped from 4.2% in May to just 3.06% by the end of June. Annual inflation now stands at its lowest level since October 2007. Moreover, the inflation rate moved closer to the central bank's target range of between 1% and 3%. Inflation will decelerate further in upcoming months as domestic demand remains weak.

United States: Vehicle Sales - AutoData

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT

June light vehicle sales were not only weaker than had been expected but were also lower than the May total. Auto manufacturers sold 9.6 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. While sales of cars picked up slightly from the previous month, sales of light trucks dipped. The second quarter average of 9.6 million units (SAAR) was only slightly higher than the first quarter average of 9.5 million units. The disappointing sales pace is a reminder of the severity of the recession both for households and for businesses.

Australia: Retail Sales

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:30 GMT

Retail sales advanced a further 1% m/m in May, as the second wave of fiscal stimulus cheques boosted household consumption. Retail sales have risen in month-on-month terms in seven of the past eight months, to be 6% higher than a year earlier.

South Korea: Foreign Trade

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:00 GMT

In June, South Korea produced the largest monthly trade surplus the country has ever recorded�a whopping US$7.4 billion. This compares with a surplus of US$5.2 billion in May.

Japan: Tankan Survey

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:50 GMT

The headline diffusion index of current conditions among large manufacturers in the Bank of Japan�s Tankan survey improved to -48 in the second quarter, from -58 in the first quarter. The rise of 10 percentage points is the first improvement since the fourth quarter of 2007 and comes following the worst reading on record during the first quarter. Improvements for medium- and small-sized manufacturers were extremely mild from their very low first quarter readings.

United States: ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:00 GMT

Confidence rebounded slightly following the prior week's large decline. According to the ABC News/Washington Post consumer confidence index, sentiment added 2 points, to -51 for the week ended June 28. The improvement keeps sentiment within its range of the past three quarters. Consumer confidence is still stuck at a low level, consistent with a deep recession.

United States: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 10:00 GMT

The Conference Board index of consumer confidence slipped in June, following May's large leap. The index fell 5.5 points, to 49.3 in June, from May's downwardly revised 54.8 (originally 54.9). The present-situation component more than reversed the prior month's gain, falling to 24.8, from 29.7 (previously 28.9). After surging in May, the expectations component dropped back to 65.5, from 71.5 (previously 72.3). Assessments of current labor market and business conditions declined in June.

United States: ISM-Chicago

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:45 GMT

Manufacturing in the Midwest is in the midst of a deep downturn, but there are signs that conditions are stabilizing. The ISM-Chicago index rose a larger than expected 5 points to 39.9 in June. Although this reading is consistent with a deep contraction, the details of the June survey were encouraging. Both new orders and employment improved over the month. Conditions should gradually improve over the next few months, as vehicle production schedules already point to an increase next quarter from severely depressed levels in the second quarter.

Chile: Employment

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00 GMT

Chile's labor market deteriorated in May amid the ongoing recession. The national unemployment rate averaged 10.2% during the March-May moving quarter, sharply up from 8% in the same period a year earlier. The unemployment rate has been rising since the second half of last year as the Chilean economy fell into its first recession since 1999. The labor force grew 1.6% in the 12-month period to May thus pushing the unemployment rate up. Labor conditions will not improve until the second half of the year. The government's ongoing effort to stimulate the economy and the central bank's aggressive monetary easing in recent months will start to yield results in the second half.

Chile: Industrial Production

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00 GMT

The industrial contraction started to moderate in May, indicating the economy is approaching a bottom. The index of manufacturing production reported a decline of 10.5% in May, after falling 11.1% in April and 2.4% one year before. The economy has been dragged down by the external downturn.

Chile: Retail Sales

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00 GMT

Chilean retail sales fell 1.6% y/y in the month of May after recording a 5% y/y drop in April. The Chilean consumer continues to demand fewer goods in the face of an economy that remains in recession due to the massive decline in exports caused by the global economic downturn. Declining consumer demand is focused on durable goods such as automobiles, hardware goods, and household appliances.

United States: NAPM - NY Report

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00 GMT

Business conditions in New York City's service sector contracted in June after posting an expansion in May. The business conditions index fell 2.6 points to 359. While businesses still feel optimistic about the outlook for the city, the current conditions index fell sharply from 61.3 to 44.8. The future conditions index rose 2.2 points to 58.3, the fourth consecutive month of an above-50 reading. The NAPM-NY index illustrates the shakiness of the city's economy and its struggle to find a bottom this year.

United States: S&P/Case-Shiller� Home Price Indexes

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00 GMT

Existing-house prices fell again in April, although the rate of decline was lower than expectations. The not seasonally adjusted 20-city index declined 18.1% from a year ago during the three months ending in April. The consensus had expected a decline of 18.6%. Likewise, the 10-city index fell 18% over the year in April, much slower than the 18.6% decline reported for March.

Canada: Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indices

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:30 GMT

The Industrial Product Price index fell 1.1% in May compared with April. This was the second straight month of decline in the IPPI and was due to the appreciation of the loonie against the greenback. The Raw Materials Price index edged up 2.2% in May as crude oil prices started rising again.

United States: Chain Store Sales Snapshot

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 07:45 GMT

Chain stores jumped by 1.6% in the week ending June 27, reversing most of the recent weeks' downward movement. Sales were 0.6% above their year-ago level, an improvement over the past several weeks. The ICSC attributed some of the gain to hotter than normal weather that led to modestly stronger customer traffic.

United Kingdom: Moody's Economy.com Debt Service Ratio

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 07:00 GMT

The Moody�s Economy.com debt service ratio for the U.K. fell sharply in the first quarter despite a sharp decline in household gross disposable income. The share of the average British household�s post-tax income going towards debt payments fell to 20.8%, down from 22.5% in the fourth stanza. A sharp pullback in the mortgage metric made the major contribution to the decline in the headline total DSR. The fall in the DSR for mortgages was driven by lower mortgage rates and a slowdown in the accumulation of new mortgage debt .

Ireland: GDP

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:00 GMT

Ireland's economy remained deep in recession in the first quarter of 2009. GDP contracted 1.5% q/q and 8.5% y/y. This adds to the 7.1% q/q and 8% y/y contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008. Ireland's recession will be among the deepest and longest seen in any industrialised nation since the 1930s. The Irish economy will be one of the worst performers in the world this year, shrinking by over 8%.

Italy: Producer Price Index

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 05:00 GMT

Italian producer prices remained on a downward trend in May. Producer prices fell 6.7% y/y, following a revised 5.2% drop in April. The outcome was in line with the Moody�s Economy.com forecast. The main driver was a decline in energy prices. Producer prices will remain weak in Italy in the coming months, as the crude oil price remains relatively low and domestic demand-driven inflationary pressures are weaker.

Euro Zone: ECB Monetary Development (Monetary Aggregates)

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 04:00 GMT

Loans to households and companies in Europe grew at the slowest pace on record in May. On a year-ago basis, M3 monetary supply rose by 3.7%, down from a rate of 4.9% in April. Although the central bank has loosened its monetary policy, the tension in lending markets since November 2007 is being extended by the recession in the euro zone. Banks remain reluctant to lend whilst households and businesses are reluctant to borrow.

Germany: Employment Situation

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:50 GMT

The number of unemployed persons in Germany rose in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of people out of work increased by 31,000, following a revised 7,000 rise in May. The outcome was below the Moody�s Economy.com and market consensus forecasts. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3.%, from 8.2% in May. Unemployment will rise into 2010 as Germany will be in recession for most of this year.

Denmark: GDP

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:30 GMT

Denmark remained in recession in the quarter ending March. Real GDP fell 1.1% q/q compared with the prior quarter's fall of 1.9% (revised down from 2%). In annual terms, the economy shrank 4.3%, after falling 3.7% in the prior quarter. Moody�s Economy.com expected a fall of 4.4%. The Danish economy weakened on the back of a sharp fall in household spending and exports.

Thailand: Foreign Trade

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:30 GMT

Thailand recorded a foreign trade surplus of US$2.3 billion in May, up from last month�s subdued $618 million surplus. Exports remain weak; however, an even larger decline in imports during the month contributed to the robust surplus.

Thailand: Industrial Production

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:30 GMT

Thailand's industrial production fell 10% y/y in May, after a 9.7% drop in April. Production of export-related goods picked up while passenger car production remained a drag.

Thailand: Private Consumption

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:30 GMT

Thailand's private consumption was down 4.7% y/y in May compared with a steeper decline of 5.3% in April. The deceleration was in line with Moody's Economy.com's expectations.

Turkey: GDP

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:00 GMT

The Turkish economy contracted in the three months to March for the second consecutive quarter. Real GDP fell 13.8% in year-ago terms, the largest drop since the data series began in 1987, following a 6.2% decline in the December quarter. Both domestic and external demand eased. Forward-looking economic indicators are still weak, which suggests that the economy will slow this year.

France: Producer Price Index

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:45 GMT

French producer prices are contracting. The headline measure of PPI in the domestic market declined by 0.3% m/m in May. In annual terms, the PPI dropped by 7.8%, after falling 6.4% in April. Firms are cutting prices amid low input costs and weak demand. Businesses' expectations are picking up, but squeezed profit margins are resulting in a continued rise in the number of people out of work.

United Kingdom: Nationwide Housing Price Index

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:00 GMT

According to Nationwide, the average house price in the U.K. rose for the second straight month in June, with the headline house price index rising 0.9% m/m following a 1.3% (revised) increase in May. On a year ago basis, the house price index came in 9.3% lower compared to a 11.3% decline in April. Despite the upward trend in house prices in recent months, rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are expected to weigh on the U.K. housing market in the second half of 2009.

Japan: Housing Starts

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:00 GMT

Japanese housing starts improved in May, with the pace of year-on-year decline moderating to 30.8%, from 32.4% in April. A base effect skewed the year-on-year change in May, with last year�s result a particularly poor one. On a seasonally adjusted basis, housing starts fell sharply in May, dropping 12.3%. A bleak economic outlook, deteriorating labour market conditions, and falling property prices have weighed on housing starts in recent months.

South Korea: Retail Sales

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:00 GMT

Sales of consumer goods expanded at a very strong 5.1% m/m seasonally adjusted in May, compared with an increase of 0.6% m/m in April.

South Korea: Industrial Production

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:30 GMT

Industrial production worsened in May, falling by 9% y/y, compared with a decline of 8.2% in the previous month.

India: Consumer Price Index

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT

India�s CPI for industrial workers climbed 8.6% y/y in May, compared with an increase of 8.7% in April. High consumer price inflation is still a concern to policymakers.