One of the big surprises for me while reflecting on the hysteria at CES was the total absence of 3D still cameras. Digital still cameras have been a runaway success, even if the change in consumer behavior (no more printing) has led to the reshaping of the industry more than expected.

However, bearing in mind that consumers are clearly very happy to view their pictures electronically, I would have expected that stereoscopic cameras would have appeared.  So far, I can find only one, the Fuji FinePix W1.

Figure 1:  Fuji FinePix W1 Stereoscopic Camera

 I was unable to find any other products launched, although a slide by Sony appears to hint at some 3D DSC’s in 2010, as reported by Engadget at the end of last year in “Sony working on 3D Alpha DSLR cameras?”

3D home photos are a wonderful way to bring memories back to life and should have real emotional impact and value.  However, it’s another example of how TVs are still significantly ahead of available content.

It will be an interesting question in the coming months: Will the upcoming 3D TVs and Blu-ray players with USB or card slots decode the .JPS Stereo JPEG format?

Nearly a year ago, we at DisplaySearch blogged about what Apple’s rumored (now launched) tablet would be, including what features it might have and what the display technology would be used.  We hypothesized such a device would use a  ~10″ LED-backlit TFT LCD display, have high color saturation, and “…a wide viewing angle both horizontally and vertically.” We also ruled out OLED and sunlight readability as possibilities. In November, we commented publicly on these eventualities. So how did things turn out?

Apple’s iPad was officially launched today and features a 9.7″ 1024 × 768 LED-backlit, IPS (In-Plane Switching) TFT LCD display. It is quite apparent that the display technology was of paramount concern to Apple, who noted that they chose it “because it uses a display technology called IPS (in-plane switching), [and] it has a wide, 178° viewing angle. So you can hold it almost any way you want, and still get a brilliant picture, with excellent color and contrast.” In addition to highlighting the display technology, Apple claimed that they have the largest capacitive multi-touch display, with “thousands of sensors” to provide the same touch sensing accuracy that the iPod Touch and iPhone have.

What was not noted in the Apple presentation is that the display is not a wide aspect ratio. It is neither 16:10 nor 16:9, but rather 4:3. In a display world that has “gone wide,” this is unique. More than 99% of notebook PCs use wide displays; you would have a difficult time finding an LCD TV with anything other than a 16:9 display, and more than 80% of desktop monitor displays are wide aspect ratio. So why did Apple choose not to use a wide aspect ratio display? Perhaps they were trying to find a middle ground between the requirements for books, magazines and newspapers and the requirements for video and gaming.

Apple also notes that the iPad uses “arsenic-free display glass” (which is now standard from Corning) and a “mercury-free LCD display” (which is one of the benefits of LED backlights). The front surface of the display is coated with a “fingerprint-resistant oleophobic coating,” which was introduced in the iPhone 3G S.

In his presentation, Steve Jobs highlighted a product gap between smart phones and notebook PCs, stating that netbooks are slow, have low-quality displays and PC software, and that the iPad was designed to fill this gap. The iPad will run a version of iWork (Apple’s equivalent to Microsoft’s Office Suite) specifically designed for the iPad, as well as running the hundreds of thousands of apps from the Apple App Store, including games and something called iBooks. The device functions as an e-reader for books, newspapers and magazines. Jobs noted that, “Amazon has done a great job of pioneering this (the e-reader market)… We’re going to stand on their shoulders.” Like the iPhone (a handheld computer that also allows makes phone calls), the iPad is a platform that runs a multitude of applications. It is an expansion of Apple’s portable computing platform, not a single-function device like most e-readers.

The average price for 10″ mini-notes based on the Intel Atom architecture and Windows XP or Windows 7 Starter Edition is $300-350. (Some telecom providers offer subsidized models for much less.) Pricing for the iPad starts at $499 and increases to $829 depending upon the amount of storage and whether it has built-in 3G connectivity. Entry-level iPads will have 16 GB of flash storage and Wi-Fi, while the $829 model will have 64 GB of flash and built in 3G connectivity. All of the 3G-equipped models “…are unlocked, and they use the new GSM microSIMs.” Apple has also worked out a deal with AT&T for no contract data plans at $14.99 per month for 250 MB of data or $29.99 per month for unlimited data.

Much as Apple’s notebook PCs are more expensive than products with similar specifications, it should come as no surprise that the iPad is priced significantly higher than the average mini-note. But Apple positioned the iPad as combining the features of mini-notes, e-readers and handheld gaming devices into one package (platform). What market segment does the iPad fit into? Is it an e-reader? A mini-note? A tablet PC? A handheld gaming device? All the above? Or, is this a brand new device category?

Without a major US tech conference devoted just to personal computers or IT products, many brands take liberties with the “C” in CES and showcase commercial products as well. In doing so, many fail to differentiate between consumer and commercial products, rather showing any product that promotes what they consider hot technologies. This approach often marginalizes features and trends that are truly relevant to the personal computing space. Let’s look at areas where there was too much hype and then where there was not enough emphasis.

Overused

1. 3D: Too much written about this already…. Quite naturally, the focus was on TVs, so monitor and notebook companies seemed to feel compelled to jump on the bandwagon and show 3D for gaming, watching video, etc.
2. Slate: While the industry often recycles terms and technologies, it seems that everything was being labeled or re-labeled a “slate”. From tablet PCs, which are less than 1% of the total notebook PC market, to new products like the convertible hybrid IdeaPad U1 from Lenovo (very innovative!), to e-readers such as Samsung’s new entry, “slate” seems here to stay. Apple’s January 27 announcement can’t come soon enough.
3. LED: Most monitor and PC companies promoted their forthcoming LED-backlit LCD monitors. Samsung even showed their LED backlit 46″ and 55″ digital signage products.
4. AIO: All-in-one desktop PC (AIO) portfolios are growing significantly with companies from Lenovo to MSi showing a wide variety of new offerings. Interestingly, ViewSonic noted strong adoption of their AIOs in commercial, as opposed to consumer, environments.
5. HDMI: Notebook and monitor companies were quick to point out the addition of HDMI ports on their 2010 products. Most companies stated that they did not have plans to have different connectivity solutions for consumer vs. commercial products (see DisplayPort).

Underused

1. Touch: While there was much hype (and debate) surrounding touch as a interface for AIOs, notebooks and monitors with the announcement of Windows 7, it seemed that most product pitches noted touch as an option rather than as a primary feature.
2. Monitor: Not much new in the way of PC monitors-with two exceptions:
   • Samsung indicated that in addition to expanding their notebook portfolio, they will also extend their “LapFit” displays (which have a low profile to enable them to be viewed seamlessly next to a notebook display) and begin bundling them.
   • LG’s IP displays allow 30 or more monitors to run from one host. While impressive, this solution is hardly for consumers, and was lost in the noise of CES
3. Desktop PC: Q4′09 showed stronger than expected desktop PC sales, but when people at CES said “PC” they meant notebook PC.
4. Convergence: While there were many AV and PC dual-functionality products, I did not hear “convergence” at all. Monitor brands are pushing display sizes up (Dell introduced a 27″ display), yet there are indications that some retailers are hesitant to carry monitors larger than 24″, as a way of avoiding confusion over multi-function monitors.
5. DisplayPort: While there has been significant development work on this new digital interface, and there was a press conference at CES, DP seems to have little awareness from brand and marketing managers, let alone the general public.

Someone once said to me, “If it’s got a battery and a hinge, it’s a notebook.”  Well, that is no longer exactly true.  At CES this week, I saw a plethora of devices that have taken the traditional concept of a notebook PC and pushed it into new areas. 

Some changes were on the subtle side, like the launch of the 11.6″ Dell Alienware m11x. Instead of the typical 11.6″ CULV-based sub US$500 Ultra-portable with embedded graphics, this is a full-featured gaming rig with 1 GB of graphics memory with lots of battery life and in a package that is light enough to make it easily portable.  Another unique product with a battery and a hinge was the Lenovo IdeaPad U1 hybrid.  This device has a hinge and two batteries and two CPUs.  At first glance, it appears to be a small form factor notebook.  Upon closer inspection, the slate-style tablet with its own Qualcomm Snapdragon processor and a Lenovo-developed, Linux-based OS (Skylight) can be detached from the upper part of the clamshell.  In slate mode, it operates as a mobile internet device and media player.  In clamshell mode, the Intel processor and Windows 7 take over and it acts as a more traditional notebook PC.  Like the Alienware machine, this too has a roughly $1,000 price tag.  Or, if you want a more dedicated device, Lenovo is offering the upper detachable piece in an extremely thin clamshell design running only the Snapdragon processor and Skylight OS.

3G was also a popular topic in the notebook world. Several brands announced partnerships with telecom providers to offer subsidized netbooks and notebooks when signing up for data plans.  While these plans have been quite successful in Europe and Asia, they are still relatively new here in the US.

Touch screens are also starting to appear in more places in the notebook market.  Lenovo launched a convertible tablet PC built from a typical 10.1″ netbook.  Other brands are also including touch in one or two, larger, mainstream models.

Dell also showed a prototype Studio XPS notebook equipped with a 1366 × 768 OLED display from LG Display.  While the PC brand does not, at this time, plan to bring the product to market, it was another stunning demonstration of OLED display technology.  There were even one or two portable devices that are in development that I was shown-but cannot yet discuss-that should hit the market in the next 3-6 months that will create even more excitement in the world of portable computing.

The portable computing market is continuing to heat up and gain momentum. Long-standing players are re-discovering what got them their leading market share positions, and up-start brands are trying to grab their own piece of the market with cutting-edge designs.  Whether it’s LED backlighting, 3G, 3D, tablets or finding new ways to attach monitors to notebooks, the mobile computing market now has a product to fit almost anyone’s requirements.

It is hard to walk the show floor at CES 2010 and not be inundated with 3D. There have also been a flurry of announcements on the content side, including Sony’s partnerships with the Discover Channel and ESPN to develop 3D networks, Panasonic’s strategic relationship with Direct TV, and Samsung’s partnership with DreamWorks and Technicolor.

On the hardware front, Panasonic is continuing to differentiate itself via PDP, with a 150″ 3D PDP demonstrated. Samsung showed both its 3D AMOLED and 3D 240 Hz LCD. Toshiba is promoting its Cell technology for 3D processing. On the PC front, Intel and NVIDIA are prominent.

Figure: Major Brands Promoting 3D at CES 2010

 

  Many people remember that 3D was also a hot topic at CES 2009. However, it turned out that 2009 was not a good year for 3D display at all in terms of revenue. According to our newly-released 3D Display Technology and Market Forecast Report, 3D display revenue dropped over 50% in 2009 from 2008. But 2009 was a very good promotional year for 3D with several leading consumer electronic brands and display manufacturers are all committed to 3D, including Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, AUO, CMO and Sharp. Also a couple of TV broadcasters have committed to 3D broadcasting in 2010. 3D content is increasing rapidly; 3D standards are being put in into place by several organizations. All these factors have paved the way for 3D to take off in 2010 and 2011. We forecast that the 3D display market will grow to $22 billion by 2018.

In another area of research into 3D, NPD’s Snapshot Report: 3D Television found that consumers interested in 3D want 50%+ of the content they currently watch to be available in 3D. So, the provision of content, through broadcast, game consoles, Blu-ray players, and on-line sources is going to be very important.

Major TV themes at the 2010 CES include 3D, connectivity and LED. LED is a major area of focus that could account for a large percentage of the TV market in 2010 after a modest 2009 result.

LG has no fewer than six new series of LED-based LCD TVs among their total of 11 series of LCDs, totaling 41 models that are 32″ or larger, which should account for a large portion of their lineup.

Samsung used their press conference to take the wraps off of a number of super-slim edge-lit LED TVs. The thinnest is the 9000 series, which is just 0.3″ thick (the width of a pencil) with a brushed aluminum frame and detachable touchscreen controller that will play video! Samsung also debuted the 8000, 7000 and 6500 series of LED TVs using a new industrial design and ranging from 19″ to 65″ in size.

Sharp rolled out three series of LED-backlit LCD TVs, all edge-lit, with some incorporating their newly announced Quadpixel sub-pixel structure using red, green, blue and now yellow sub-pixels. Sharp also announced that they are targeting 50% of their LCD TV sales volume in 2010 to be from LED models.

Sony launched eight series of LED backlit LCD TVs, seven edge-lit and one direct-lit with dynamic backlight control, highlighting their new Monolithic industrial design and ranging in size from 32″ to 60″, all full HD 1080p.

Toshiba spent its press conference concentrating on re-launching their feature-packed Cell LCD TV, which uses a wide array of advanced technologies: full local-dimming direct LED backlight with an incredible 512 zones for very fine gradation. Again, its product range is heavily LED biased, with seven of its 11 series being LED-backlit.

2010 is going to be a very big year for LED indeed.

At CES 2010, Samsung has already made a flurry of product announcements in TV, cameras, projectors, printers and mobile phones.

One theme that is noticeable is an increased use of AMOLED displays. Samsung announced these products, all with AMOLED:

• The 700Z, a digital photo frame with a 7″ 1024 × 600 pixel display: Perhaps this makes up for the fact that Sony is releasing its new “dash” internet appliance which also has a 7″ display, but despite Sony’s promotion of AMOLED for TV, uses a TFT LCD.
• The CL80, a digital still camera with a 3.7″ WVGA AMOLED touch screen
• The Ice Touch PMP, with a 2″ transparent OLED display: This one seems like it might not be a finished product, as Samsung provided little information about it.

Samsung was also promoting a new phone based on the Moment, its Android-based mobile phone with an AMOLED display, which will now be capable of receiving the (ATSC) Mobile Digital TV standard. Of course, the biggest splash for Android was in Google’s own Nexus One, which has a 3.7″ WVGA AMOLED display. Another Android device being released at CES is the Inbrics MID M1, which also has an AMOLED. Seems like Android is a good thing for AMOLED.

At our 2008 TV Supply Chain Conference, I formulated the longer-term challenge for TV setmakers as being how to face the internet revolution-otherwise they would end up in the monitor business.

At the opening day of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, some of the press conferences revealed that choice.  Toshiba have clearly embraced the idea of the smart TV with their Cell TV: not only is it a conventional TV, but also a terabyte server that can play back to other sets around the home.  An hour earlier, Netgear showed its Stora consumer network storage device, which not only allows content sharing around the home, but also has video processing functions.

For Toshiba the TV is central; in Netgear’s view it is merely a big monitor. This to me is the big battle for TV. Such matters as LED backlighting and 3D are by comparison squabbles between set makers, but do not address the real competition to the TV industry from the coming disruption of content delivery.

In December, I wrote about the most important challenges for the FPD industry in 2009. Now we are in 2010, the year of Tiger, which represents a vigorous spirit and a ferocious mind-either positive or negative. If the energy of the Tiger fuels FPD market growth, then the whole supply chain will have a prosperous year. The downside risk is that panel or set prices fall in a ferocious way. What are the top questions to be answered in the year of the Tiger?

1. Panel prices are set to increase in January 2010, and it is likely that they will rise through Q1′10 due to the strong demand to build inventories. How long can prices stay strong?
2. When will we see new fabs and capacities? Encouraged by strong demand, panel makers are starting to pull in their new fab schedules and capacity additions.
3. Will there be more consolidation and alliances? If so, who will swallow whom?
4. Most TV brands are targeting 30-50% LED backlight penetration in their 2010 business plan; will they be able to achieve that? How fast will LED backlight LCD TVs grow?
5. E-book readers are a promising new application category, attracting new entrants and stimulating technology evolution. However, there are still doubts about consumer acceptance of these devices. Will e-book readers become an accepted consumer electronics device? Or it will be just a fad? Is color required for broad acceptance?
6. 3D can provide inspiring and thrilling experience, but there are uncertainties about the availability of content, the technological readiness, and acceptance in the living room. Can we move away from the requirement for glasses?
7. Except for Panasonic and Chinese makers, plasma panel makers have stopped investing in new capacity. Even Panasonic is shifting resources into LCD. What can change PDP’s destiny in 2010? Can plasma survive in the TV market? Or can it find a new niche?
8. Among the many potential projects for Gen 7/8 fabs in China, which ones will eventually come true? How will they influence the 2011 supply/demand balance?
9. Panel costs fell sharply in 2009 due to depreciation and changes in components. Will this reduction continue in 2010? How profitable will companies in the LCD supply chain be?
10. Will the small/medium FPD panel price collapse due to the newly ramped Chinese Gen 4 fabs and the Korean/Taiwanese Gen 5 fabs shifting to the <10″ production?

Certainly, there are many questions to be answered, such as the mini-note outlook, touch panel development, LCD monitor market maturity, Windows 7 influence, high transmittance technologies, glass substrate capacity constraints, TV specifications and roadmaps, mobile phones, pico projectors, 21:9 aspect ratio, and so on. You certainly have your own list of questions for 2010: let us know what they are! At DisplaySearch, the most exciting part of our job is to help you explore the answers of all of these questions. Stay tuned, within this year, DisplaySearch will give you definite answers and in-depth analysis.

On December 24, the Korean government announced that it had officially approved direct investment by Korean TFT LCD companies in China. The specific projects at issue are Samsung’s Gen 7 project in Suzhou and LG Display’s Gen 8 project in Guangdong.

With China emerging as the largest LCD TV market and in consideration of possible import tariffs, Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese panel makers have been proposing investments in China, and LG Display, Samsung and Sharp have all taken steps towards those investments. Political concerns about technology leakage and domestic employment have led to extensive government review.

The, Korean government’s approval included several conditions, including the continuation of domestic investment, the use of Korean equipment in the Chinese plants, and prevention of technology leakage.

Both Samsung and LG Display’s projects will still need to China’s governmental approval, which is necessary for any foreign companies investing there.

Several impacts of this approval are likely:

• The Taiwanese government will feel pressure to approve AUO, Chi-Mei InnoLux or other smaller panel makers’ investments in China.
• Gen8 investment projects by domestic companies like BOE and TCL will accelerate.
• Glass substrate makers will see the need to build tanks in China to support the emerging TFT LCD fabs.
• China’s share of TFT LCD capacity and shipments will rapidly increase within two years when most of these Gen7 and 8 fabs are built and ramped up.
• Component and materials production will start to move to China, and build a more complete supply chain.
• The Samsung and LG groups will continue investment in Korea, especially AMOLED and the Gen 8+ fabs.

What do you think? Do companies have to build in China in order to win in China? Is the China TV market big enough to digest the panels from so many new investments ramping up at the same time? The possible investments in China include BOE (Gen 6 and 8), TCL (Gen 8), Samsung (Gen 7), LG Display (Gen 8), the Sharp CEC Panda joint venture (Gen 6 and 8), and Kunshan (Gen 7).