Distribution Trends

A Bad Q1 for Distributors, but the Worst is Over

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 21:21:00 +0000

The recession is not over, but we are at (or near) the bottom. Time to start getting ready for the emerging risks associated with the coming economic recovery. The first quarter of 2009 was horrible for wholesaler-distributors. The chart below shows the change in revenue from Q1:2009 compared to...

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My Mid-Year Economic Update: Free Webcast

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:41:00 +0000

The latest economic data show that many sectors of the economy are either stabilizing – or at least getting worse at a much slower rate. As I have been saying for some time now, we will probably look back on the past two quarters as the bottom of a very ugly recession by historical standards. Get...

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Stimulus Update + New Free Report

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 19 May 2009 12:07:00 +0000

Remember the economic stimulus bill? You know, the sprawling $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 that most wholesale distribution executives expect to have no impact on their business? Although the stimulus bill has dropped off most people's radar screen, the money...

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2009 Economic Growth and You

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 02:15:00 +0000

The latest economic forecasts from the Wall Street Journal's monthly survey were released a few weeks ago. See Economists See a Rebound in September. An important question for many wholesale distribution executives is how the economic conditions affect their industry. Here's some data for you to...

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Highlights from the new 2009 Economic Reports

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 16:13:00 +0000

My 2009 Wholesale Distribution Economic Reports for each of the 19 major industry sectors are now available for download from NAW's Institute for Distribution Excellence. Here's a look at the 2008 numbers and some thoughts on the 2009 outlook. Total revenues of wholesale distributors grew by 8.4%...

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Today’s Recession in Perspective

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 05:01:00 +0000

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has put together a nifty site called The Recession in Perspective. It places today's recession into historical context versus the other 10 post-WWII recessions. You can graphically compare the length or depth of today's downturn to your favorite recession...

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How to Benefit from the Economic Stimulus

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:05:00 +0000

I hope you will join me on Thursday for my live webcast The Economic Stimulus Package: Impacts & Opportunities for Distributors. The webcast is being sponsored in part by Infor. I developed this webcast because I could not find a straightforward, practical resource about this complex and...

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Finding Opportunities in the Stimulus

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:01:00 +0000

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 – a.k.a. the stimulus bill – is not as bad as you think. Seriously. In preparation for my March 26 webcast The Economic Stimulus Package: Impacts & Opportunities for Distributors, I have been going over the 407 page bill, section by section. ...

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Stimulus Skepticism

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:51:00 +0000

Well, I crunched the numbers for my quick economic stimulus survey and the results are unambiguous. Most of you are very skeptical that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will deliver tangible benefits to your companies. You can download the complete report (for free) here: Stimulus...

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Wholesale Distribution and the Economic Stimulus

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 18:26:00 +0000

We are nearing official approval of H.R.1 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the 1,073-page, $787 billion “stimulus” bill. Peggy Noonan recently described the legislation as “a big, messy, largely off-point and philosophically chaotic piece of legislation.” Oink! But put aside your...

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Technology in Distribution report (free download)

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 05:01:00 +0000

Last Fall, I partnered with Lawson Software to survey North American distribution companies about their technology spending and plans for 2009. The final report is now available for free download at the following link: Technology in Distribution: Trends and Challenges There’s a lot of data for...

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Strategies for Surviving the Recession

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 05:01:00 +0000

I was in Washington last week for the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors' 2009 Executive Summit. The overall mood was much more subdued than previous meetings given the economy and recent wholesale distribution sales trends. But as always, the real value of the meeting came from the...

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Free 2009 Economic Forecast Report!

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:01:00 +0000

Good news!IBM has kindly agreed to make my 2009 Economic Forecast for Wholesale Distribution report available as a free download. Just click the link below to get it. (Yes, you will have to register.) The 2009 Economic Forecast for Wholesale Distribution Keep in mind that the overall economic...

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An Ugly Q4 for Wholesaler-Distributors

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 11:05:00 +0000

Data from the fourth quarter of 2008 is starting to trickle in – and the news is horrible. As you all probably know from personal experience, the U.S. economy dropped sharply beginning in September. The speed and depth of the decline surprised almost everyone – including me. Below are the latest...

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Holiday Cheer

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 17:08:00 +0000

Well, here it is -- my 20th (and final) post for 2008.Thanks to everyone for your ongoing interest in my research and publications. I'll be back in 2009 with more fun stuff. In the meantime, here's a bit of multi-denominational holiday humor to brighten these bad economic times.All Spinal Tap fans...

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A few words about the NAW Executive Summit

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 01:58:00 +0000

I hope that you are planning to attend the 2009 NAW Executive Summit in January. I know that the economy is tough and many executives are cutting back on travel, but this is one meeting that I believe will pay for itself. I strongly recommend that you attend. NAW’s meetings are unique because they...

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Happy First Birthday, Economic Recession!

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:05:00 +0000

Breaking news from 12 months ago – the U.S. recession officially began in December 2007. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) released a statement on Monday stating a Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity. By way of...

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My 2009 Economic Forecast for Wholesale Distribution

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:18:00 +0000

Yikes! The latest economic data do not look good. More than half of the 19 major wholesale distribution sectors had negative (inflation-adjusted) year-over-year revenue growth through the third quarter of 2008. I also expect downward revisions to the Q3 GDP data that I discussed last week in Mostly...

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Mostly Bad News in Q3 Snapshot of U.S. Economy

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 11:05:00 +0000

Last week’s report on third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed what many wholesaler-distributors are feeling – economic growth was anemic. As the Wall Street Journal noted, these data will affect the the policy options available to our new President. See Data Stoke Campaign Battle Over...

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Phillies win!! Economy doomed?

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:43:00 +0000

Woo-hoooo!!! The Philadelphia Phillies, the hometown team of your friendly neighborhood blogger, are World Series champions for the first time since 1980! There were loud celebrations in the streets of Philadelphia last night, but few overturned cars and no mass arrests. Gosh, Adam, what could...

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Commodity Deflation is Closing the Growth Gap

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 11:05:00 +0000

POP! That’s the sound of the commodity price bubble popping. The implications for wholesaler-distributor’s revenue and profit growth will be significant in 2009. If you have Facing the Forces of Change®: Lead the Way in the Supply Chain, now is the time to reread the section in Chapter Five on the...

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How Economists See 2009

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 11:05:00 +0000

The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of 52 economists projects weak economic growth over the next few quarters. (See Economists Expect Crisis to Deepen.) Most economists expect GDP growth to be negative through the middle of next year followed by a slow recovery in the second-half of 2009....

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Get ready for a volatile 2009

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 02:15:00 +0000

Given the news headlines, you might assume that business has been uniformly weak for wholesaler-distributors. But in reality, revenue growth is varying more among the 19 major wholesale distribution sectors than anytime in recent memory. Check out annual growth rates below during the first eight...

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OUTLOOK 2009

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:24:00 +0000

The NAW just announced the availability of OUTLOOK 2009: An Executive’s Companion to Facing the Forces of Change, a new report that gives an interim update on the key issues identified in Facing the Forces of Change®: Lead the Way in the Supply Chain. I did not write OUTLOOK 2009; I am only the...

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How Suppliers View Channel Data

afein@pembrokeconsulting.com (Adam J. Fein) — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 01:08:00 +0000

Hey, wholesale distribution executives! Do you want to understand how your suppliers feel about data sharing by their channel? Or perhaps figure out how you can profit from the demand-driven channels trend from Chapter Two of Facing the Forces of Change®: Lead the Way in the Supply Chain? If so,...

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