Doc's Harmonic Stock Clock, staying ahead of the curve

Facebook Fallacy : The Narcissist Network

2012-05-18T01:40:00.004-04:00

Facebook Fallacy : The Narcissist Network

by Doctrader

Hard to believe, just 12 short years ago I was watching the
CNBC cheerleading channel spectacle of Palm Pilot's IPO!

The CNBC's cheerleaders pumped Palm Pilot's IPO and dumped massive marketing dollars on every financial television network to bring in virgin internet day traders. I say virgin traders because they had yet to feel the effects of a Savage Bear Market that was coming. The crushing of the Nasdaq Composite Index, down over 80% over the next 3 years, is still being felt by those who rely on the Nasdaq market.

So, being a good trader, you have to develop a memory like a steel trap, so upon seeing the media frezy around Facebook's IPO, I had to Google the past to see if my memory was correct. After all, I watched the Palm Pilot Spectacle from my newly installed high speed Comcast internet connection. Trading from home... a new concept... lol... Anywhoo...the ipo's price was at $38... first trade print was $58..... then strait to the moon... $165. I believe I called it at $158 a share....and it fell back to earth to $95 a share by the end of the day. The sad thing about it... i don't think you could short it... there was just not enough shares to go around... with all the inside deals and private placement orders. I suspect history will repeat itself with Facebook's IPO.

As once blogger said just 12 years ago....
"...no matter the guest’s area of expertise may well have been offshore drilling. Or foreign policy. The hyperventilating, drooling, and shortness of breath was worthy of a brothel. I recall the “Countdown to Palm” timer, a little “bug” in a television’s corner which kept tabs — to the thousandth of a second —" Farewell To The Most Widely Anticipated IPO Ever?

So flash forward to today's Facebooks Fallacy as an investment. REALY? How many failed ipos have to happen before investors wise up? Facebook's billionaire insiders will sell to the public as as much as 57% of the offering! I suspect prices will mimic those of Palm Pilot's IPO on the first day. You will see all the happy smiling cheerleaders tell you how great Facebook is....

According to Birinyi analyst Kevin Pleines, 18 of the 30 stocks are below their IPO price and 24 of the 30 are below their opening price on their first day of trading.

This will be Wall Streets's biggest payoff since Google's ipo in the internet sector. I suspect they are planning something very Big on Friday, after all this is options expiration day. Looking for a 500 point move either up or down, depending the 100-200 millions shares of the Dow Jones Index which have to trade!.

When I log onto facebook... all my social friends want me to play the latest "time trap games". Maybe i am just anti-social...or i would rather play real golf and drink real beer and eat real food. I have blocked most updates on all those who annoy me with their narcisstic behavior.

Complete Control over your news feed!

For those who send me too many post in my timeline, i have chosen "i, except the "most important updates".... While this gives me more control....advertisers are losing market share because of these filters for messages. The future of Facebook is not very clear, it could be the next JDS Uniphase or another Palm Pilot.

I understand those over 50's are not really sure what the heck Facebook is used for. If that wasn't bad enough for those over 50, sometimes their smartphone's are reporting automatically where they are eating and drinking by "checking in" on Four Square!

The real value of Facebook is data mining, not advertising.
Advertisers "Like" the Narcissist Network ,Facebook, which changes it's privacy rules and term of service about as often as Mark Zuckenberg change's his hoodie.
So... expect more confusing Terms of Service changes to go along with Facebook's new IPO, after all... those greedy businessmen will want to sell you.... a car...?? a widget?? or something.....

Good Luck

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.This site should be used for Educational purposes only. No advice is given. No recommendations given. You are considered to be over 18 years old. Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog. Use all Information on this site at your own risk. Best Wishes Doctrader

Boomers May Lead Market Decline

2012-05-09T02:38:00.002-04:00

The First Secular Bear Market began with a short term cyclical crash in October of 1929. What made this cyclical crash different from previous crashed? Politics! The American political climate had changed from the rugged individualism of liberty and freedom, to a social collective-progressive thinking brought about by the rise of the American communist party, the American Civil Liberties Union, and the Progressive-Libertarian party.

Dow Jones 1996 to 2012

Politics aside, free markets have traditionally had cyclical booms and bust throughout history. These cyclical crashes happen every 3-4 years since the beginning of Trading markets. The Dutch Tulip Bulb Mania and market failure in the 1600's. The previous cyclical market crash in 1924, was barely noticed, and over in less than 1 year during the roaring 20's! The previous cyclical crash in 1924 was exactly the same type of short term cyclical crash the market experienced in 1987! These cyclical crashes spawn knee jerk reactions from politicians into doing something stupid in order to justify their reelections.

The last great secular bull market began in 1984 and continued till 2002, was caused by the baby boomers population explosion after World War II. The baby boomers are not just in the U.S., but are world wide, in every country after World War II.

First, the baby boom created demand for products from 1945-1965. The boomers are 76 million people between the ages of 55-70's! The Veterans became engineers and scientists and construction workers. The Veterans helped build all the new hospitals, schools, housing,factories, and consumer goods for the young baby boomers that were being born between 1948-1965.

Second, The early 60's spurred the space race, the arms race, and created the military industrial complex that we have today. There was an old saying, all you needed to get rich was to invest in the "Generals", General Mills for food, General Electric for consumer appliances, General Motors for transportation, and General Dynamics for defense.

Needless to say, the stock markets around the world began to grow rebuilding from World War II. The bull market began in earnest in 1948 and continued until 1966! The first Secular Bull Market after WWII was followed by a 18 year long Bear market. The post WWII babies were only consumers, not producers between 1965-1980's. After the 1980's the bulk of the post WWII boomers began to have their own baby boom. The baby boomers had approximately 30 million children, not enough to replace themselves and surely not enough to support themselves at retirement time.

However, there are estimates of 60-90 million abortions between Roe vs. Wade and today. The baby boomers may have doomed their comfortable retirement by aborting too many future social security tax payers.

Does this mean the end of world? No! It just means that you should not expect the same rates of return from the stock market like the last 18 years!

The problem we have today is that most people want to collect stocks and have their portfolios appreciate automatically like they did in previous bull markets. This will not be the case, and most 401k's, and long term stock investors will feel the pain of a bear market every 3-4 years when the market's corrects.

The Wall Street myth about "buying and holding" forever has never worked, and certainly not in bear markets. The problem with Wall Street Analyst is they never tell you when it is time to sell! For every market correction that has happened since 2001, investors have lost time and value. Every correction that and investor loses 33%, will take a 50% gain to break even. If an investor loses 50% of the value of his portfolio, he will have to gain 100% to break even.

Last week the Dow Jones hit a 4 year high, now would be a good time to sell 80-90% of your portfolio. Why? Jan 2008 the Dow Jones Index, was coming down from an all time high of 14,200 points set in Oct 2007! Within 18 months from the all time high, the Dow Jones Index was at new lows, surpassing the lows back to 1997!

Now, today, those who chose the buy and hold method, are almost back to break even. Should you continue to hold or will you take your modest losses now and wait for a better day?

The Baby Boomers are making that choice for you every day. There are 11,000 Boomers per day retiring! That is 330,000 jobs per month and every month for the next 15 years that will need to be replaced!

U.S. Dollar Index from 1996 to 2012

Since the economy is not hiring 300,000 people per month, one can only assume most people are staying beyond their retirement time. The baby boomers are largely underwater with their real estate holdings and more homes are coming on the market at distressed prices. Real estate may not recover for another 10 years or more and my be in a secular bear market lasting 18 years!

The market downside is so much greater than the potential upside! Europe has had some strong political and economical changes, with more to come. European debt crisis will be at the forefront of the American politics with the coming elections in November. Nothing has been fixed financially, the problems have just been pushed to the back burner. Wall Street is hoping you won't notice that every social IPO they have offered is down below the offering prices. Wall street is hoping you do not notice the lack of trading volume, they are hoping you do not notice 70% of the market trading is done by computers calculating when to buy and when to sell for maximum profit.

Maybe they won't notice if you take 80-90% of you money out of the market and put into a short term money market or treasury fund? Maybe you should buy a little silver coins, just in case the dollar collapses. Maybe you should buy a year's worth of food if you can afford it.

Then, after the elections, if there is sunshine and roses in the market you can dollar cost average back into market, but in the meantime you will have peace without having all your nest eggs tied up!

I mean.. .. i am just saying...

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.This site should be used for Educational purposes only. No advice is given. No recommendations given. You are considered to be over 18 years old. Doc's Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend and market reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been active in the financial markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.
Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Best Wishes and Good Luck
Doc

Market is Waiting with Baited Breath for the Massive Government Pork Barrel Bailout

2009-02-09T00:18:00.008-05:00

There are 480 stocks which qualify for buying long trading with the signal lines. But which ones do you buy for short term trading?

I have screened the list down to 60 stocks. These should be profitable if you buy long the stocks, sell covered calls to buy puts at the next strike price below the red signal line or the yellow signal line, which ever is first. You have to screen the options for the best price vs. your risk tolerance. I would choose the March or April options to for quick profits.

Those who do not want to risk money buying long the stocks, can simply do a "chicken straddle" with theses stocks. Then

write a "chicken straddle spread", once the stocks move up or down 20%.

I posted a quick chart for you to look for others in the list of stocks.

The following list of stocks for further research.

Alphabetical order:

abc, abt,abx,aem,alxn, amag,amzn,apei, avav, awh, azo, bbh,bpl,cai,ceph,che,cmp,
cpla,csc,cwt,dgx,dv,ed,esi,ew,ffh,ghl,gild,gmcr,gold,hae,hei,hsy,hum,iau,lanc,lg,mant,mhs,mygn,navg,new,nflx,njr,nnds,orh,osip,pcg,rah,rmd,sji,slgn,stra,sxl,tdg,wlp,ww,wye,xom

Now, DO NOT JUST BUY LONG ON THESE STOCKS WITHOUT USING PUT OPTIONS, DUE TO THE VOLATILE NATURE OF THE ECONOMY. YOU COULD MISS YOUR STOPS AND THE STOCKS OPEN MUCH LOWER.

Good luck hunting for some profits.

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Great Depression or Recession

2008-11-06T11:28:00.009-05:00

By Doctrader

Ask Doc a question:

Is there one more all time high coming or are we already heading into the " Great Depression"? When is the BOTTOM? Thanks Paul

Hi Paul, Is there one more all time high coming or are we already heading into the " Great Depression"? When is the BOTTOM?

Thanks for your question.

The Short Answer:

We are heading into a recession which could turn quickly into a depression depending upon the actions of the baby boomers. If Feds ignite inflation, the market will be trading between the past highs last year and the lows set this year. If the market falls below the current lows this year on the Dow Jones Index of 7800 points, "the great depression era" bottom for the Dow Jones Index will be around 3600 points. Think it can't happen? See the Japanese Stock Market Chart.

The Long Answer:

History has shown us that all financial bubbles collapse at some point in time. Looking at history reveals, that human nature has not evolved since the last great depression. The political and economics circumstances that created the great depression are still present today. The Federal Reserve Banking system was involved in the last depression, cutting interest rates 8 times. Still, the depression was solved by new innovations and a world war.

It took nearly 24 years for the stock market to make new highs during the depression. The Federal Reserve is trying to re-ignite inflation by printing more money. If they succeed at inflating the economy, the market will move higher up to the previous highs for the Dow Jones Index of 14,000 points. A stock market advance upward will cause inflation.

Unfortunately, the ability to stop inflation is not an exact science. Remember the NASDAQ dot.com bubble, and the housing bubble that is currently collapsing.

To stop inflation, the Feds will have to increase rates dramatically which will stop inflation, but collapse the stock market. If they fail to stop inflation, we will have a "Wiemar Republic" economy causing hyper-inflation.

Neither choice is simple, inflation or deflation, but the deciding factor will be the baby boomers. Their demographics will determine if we have a great depression or a recession.

Currently, the demographics are unclear relating to the baby boomers, yet by Nov. 4th, when the elections are closed will there be riots on main street or a selling riots on Wall Street?

You are living in historical times, witnessing the Death of Capitalism and the birth of World Socialism/Marxism, "when good men and women do nothing." The future belongs to those who can see history.

Doc's Harmonic Stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985.

No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless
Doctrader

Financial Markets Making You Nervous? Now What?

2008-10-20T11:02:00.019-04:00

If you ask me a question, I will answer it!

The categories include:

Financial : Stocks, Options, Commodities, Forex Trading...

Insurance: Life, Health, Auto...

Pension Plans: 401(k), Defined Benefits...

Financial Protection: Banks, Credit Unions, Mortgages

Legal Protection: Your Rights under the law...

Physical Protection : Legal system...

Firearms Training: Self-Defense training...

Survival Training: Urban Areas, Wilderness Areas...

Hi Doc,
I am interested in day trading the Emini S&P or Emini Dow. I have a copy of your book (HSC) and could use some help in trade entry and trade management. Is there anything you could help me with?

Hi Rod,

My underground trading book called the Harmonic Stock Clock ("HSC") explains how to make entry and exit points using 3 different methods. All three methods are calculated independent of each other, yet they should agree for the highest probability for profits.

The three methods listed in the Harmonic Stock Clock (HSC) are:

HSC Base Numbers
HSC Time Zones
HSC Heartbeat

Starting with the HSC Base Numbers and using the HSC Time Zones will give your starting points for each day. The HSC Heartbeat will give you the maximum range of trading during the day, gauging over bought or over sold conditions.

Trading is more an "art form" vs. a science. The HSC indicator will give you a guideline for each day of trading. There is no magic formula that will work 100% of the time, because of the many variables during the day.

I also encourage you to keep a daily diary of your trades. The free version of "I daily diary" will work just fine.

You find some interesting results by analyzing it at the end of the week.

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Politics | Profits | and | Protection

2008-09-11T09:15:00.031-04:00

Politics Profits and Protection
(website is developing)

by Doctrader

I have come to realize, no matter how smart you think you are, there is always some boggling politician there to take your profits and make life harder for you and your business. All the good intentions in the world mean nothing if you can't make a profit. As an American, I never thought I would be witnessing the Death of Capitalism and the rise of Socialism.

Image via Wikipedia

All the financial problems we have been facing lately are the direct results of governments interfering with the Free Market Capitalism. Since we have the biggest impact on the world's economy, comprising only 3% of the world's population, the world will blame The Next Great and Last Depression on the United States.

However, the world fails to realize that we also provide 25% of the World's Gross National Production.

The world's gross national production is estimated at $50 -$60 trillion dollars annually. The United states produces approximately $15-$18 trillion dollars. Given the political slant of the news services and the market media matrix, the first finger pointing will begin during the coming Dow Jones Death Spiral.

Those who have a vested interest in continuing the charade of "free market Capitalism" and those who feel the need for 'the government" to bail out the financial system. The Market Media Matrix includes all the advertisers on the financial shows who make daily comment on the market, like CNBC.

I can't tell you how many times I am yelling at the idiots on their shows. The teleprompter news readers are dumber than a box of rocks, unless they steal content from these blogs. You watch, they will be using "Dow Death Spiral" by the end of the week. I love when they use the term "investors!" Investors don't trade everyday, only wall street day traders! Investors for the most part, just ride the tide up and down in the market like a life boat without a paddle. Now the long term investor is beginning to feel the fear, but not from losing, but for selling before the next big rally! Ironic that the politicians are blaming Wall Street for their greed, but i see the greed on main street everyday. You know what they say when you point your fingers at someone? You have 3 more fingers pointing back at yourself. Everyone is to blame, not just Wall Street!

The Dow is down nearly 30% since last year's all time highs! That should have given you a clue to sell, but not to the idiots at CNBC! They told you to buy more, then when the market was down 3000 points, Jim Kramer told everyone that was the bottom! Oh, well, no one listens to me or Don Harold.

The people who have lost their jobs, homes, and businesses are shouting for HELP from "the government." The governments' response to their drowning constituents; throw them and anchor! One thing you can always count on is the "maximum level of incompetency' when dealing with the Government. The rules and regulations imposed by governments in order to protect the people has led to the financial pandemic meltdown. The voice of the people is ignored and the politicians are bagging bags of cash.

Democrats may have caused the banking crisis. check this out as reported by Sean Hannity's special report. Another excellent source of information is Fox News Special Report, "Saving our economy".

I hope everyone who reads this blog bailed out of this market when i posted my "Dow Jones Death Spiral" 3 months ago.

I feel what happens on Monday morning will be just the tip of the ice berg hitting the world's economy like the Titanic! At 2:30, the Dow Futures and U.S. Dollar is down over 2%! Asia and Europe are reeling from the bailout plan passed by the incompetent government

As you drive to work, see how many corporate offices and warehouse have "for lease" signs posted on their buildings. Those buildings were largely funded by insurance companies and pension funds. Those failures will make the sub-prime and Fannie Mae losses look like a drop of water in a ocean.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.When trading futures,
currencies, commodities, stocks, and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Dow Jones Index Death Spiral

2008-07-02T00:12:00.008-04:00

A video is priceless!
http://screencast.com/t/1y6GeaiZHH

The Dow Jones Index is on it's way to a Death Spiral, down below 10,000 points by this time next year! You should have taken your profits when the index hit the red signal line twice. Those of you who didn't take your profits on the rejection of the red signal line were probably lulled into complacency by the CNBC Cheerleaders. I recommend you watch this video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nkZ3eHeXlc&feature=user

The SP500 Index is very close to a 'death spiral" down leg also.
http://screencast.com/t/8DqH1fXiuH

The NASD Index also is faltering.

http://screencast.com/t/qpkjFCZN

Meanwhile, the Commodities Research bureau Index has increased a a parabolic rate. The next bounce off the 45 day moving average line will cause the stock market to capitulate into the last stages of the "Death spiral" decline. The Commodities Index will not peak until sometime after the elections are concluded in the U.S. The final decline could be as low at 45-54% below the all time highs.
http://screencast.com/t/umhivIVxoo

The safe harbors for liquid cash will be silver and gold.

God Bless
Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

New Training videos

2007-11-08T00:33:00.000-05:00

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational and Training purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Well, it's been awhile since i have posted anything. I have posted this scenario of this market back in Jan 04 with your homework assignments. The first wave of a financial attack on a nation is it's currency. The second wave, attacks it's financial institutions with bond bombs. The third wave attack is that of it's stock market. The first two attack waves have slowly materialized, far more slowly than I would have expected. The cyclical bull market has been given extended life thanks to the the "happy purple pills" everyone seams to be taking lately. As the financial house of cards begins to crumble, the talking head cheerleaders keep telling you "not to panic" as they scramble to slowly liquidate their holding into gold and silver. I was hoping Ben Bernanke would have had the wisdom of creating an inflationary bear market inside the secular bear market, however he choose to be a temporary hero for the stock market perma-bulls. Dr. Ben, aka, "Helicopter Ben" maybe flying to the rescue of wall Street by lowering interest rates at the peril of almost everyone else.

By lowering interest rates to save the credit markets, he has condemned the dollar to a "death spiral" against the Euro. Only by raising the prime interest rates can reverse the dollar's slide to oblivion.

The perma-bulls say a declining dollar will mean more profits for companies who export to Europe and abroad. The perma-bulls fail to mention the U.S. is a net importer of goods and services, not a net exporter.

If you have ever travelled outside the U.S. you would soon realize that most people don't like "American stuff" for a number of reasons, which i won't go into now. If the dollar continues downward, other nations will impose tariffs and quotas on American products, creating a trade war. Usually after trade wars, the real wars commence, trading hot lead. If the American consumer does not show up for the holiday season, expect militant leaders to impose
trade restrictions on American products. After all, Europe has the social concept of lifetime employment, no matter what the costs. The world has bought all of our "junk bonds" to finance our little stock market rally to record highs. Did you see the pictures of those in London, lining up around the banks to get their deposits? It was a picture out of the 1930's, which is the direction I feel we are heading.

When the U.S. has a Triple Triple Down Day, then you will see panic in the eyes of the cheerleaders, and we, the Americans, will be the blame for the next global depression.

Look at the videos and tell me what you think.

http://screencast.com/t/85vfHk3N60d
http://screencast.com/t/OqaDoc4Pi
http://screencast.com/t/925a7dFa8q

God Bless

Doctrader

July Highs for the Year

2006-07-23T14:33:00.000-04:00

July Highs for the Year

The nimble programmed trading that has been selling 7 to 3 has dramatically been reduced for the last 3 weeks. It seems that programmed trading has abated since the highs earlier in the month of June. Since the high volume spike on the club chart has not been matched with an equal number of share being bought, the market has turned decidedly bearish despite the “high faux earning reports” generated by accounting tricks and the market media matrix. In my previous post, I warned long term investors to liquidate 1/3 of their positions as prices crossed down through the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Dow Jones Index is struggling to keep the bull market attitude, however the yellow signal line above the red signal line should cross down this week completing a failed triple bottom. Unfortunately for the long term investors who have received their quarterly reports which ended in June, the market’s window dressing has not instilled a wide spread fear of losing all their paper gains over the last two years. Some individual stocks have retraced their advancement back to the 2002 lows, which should lead to some capitulation , mainly in the Nasd stocks. Looking at the Russell 2000 stocks, the bottom 500 stocks offer a glimpse in the future of the current leaders in the small capitalization stocks. The Russell 2000 Index is also testing a triple bottom with failure leading to a capitulation. The Standards and Poors 500 Index has 212 stocks trading be the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Nasd market is in capitulation phase which should conclude by the end of the year when 90% of the stocks are trading below the red signal. Currently there are 78 stocks out of 100 which are trading below the red signal line.

Traders have had a tough time because of the “volatility” and geopolitical ramification. Those who are trading should love this market, just follow the harmonic stock clock signals for the short term trend by either going short or long for quick profits. Pick any Nasd 100 stock and compare the chart with my Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines. You will see the direction of the trend, short and long term. When the signal lines cross downward, there is a harmonic relationship between the lines. Since a picture is worth 1000 words, the trend should be easily identified. The short term trend always is based on the green signal line. The yellow signal line will be the resistance or support of short term prices depending on the positive or negative slope of the yellow signal line. A positives slope using the hands of a clock will be pointing to 1,2, or 3 o‘clock. The long term sustained trend being in the 2 ‘o’clock range. A negative sloping signal line will have the hands pointing from 4, 5 or 6 ‘o’clock. The sustained long term down trend is when the yellow signal line pointing at 4 o’clock. Remember the market will use these signal lines as support and resistance, bouncing off these signal lines like a pin ball bouncing off bumpers. You should see prices touching the green signal line within 9-18 trading days for “grounding” as explained in my book. You will also see super bounces and super retractions when price trade through 1 or more of these signal lines.

Speaking of my book, I have not finished the updates and will plan for a September release, have been having too much fun trading. There are many changes with technology and electronic publishing and am thinking of doing an online tutorial program or using the website as a training tool.

Lastly, if you have been loosing money trading and are frustrated, take a break, go on vacation and relax, these are turbulent times.

Usually, 80% of the time the market has reached it’s high for the year in the July, then slowly sells off during the last part of the year. The Bernanke bounce should not attributed to his testimony, but on program trading covering their shorts with option expiration ending last Friday. The fact that there was no follow through on the next day indicates it was a short squeeze covering play, nothing else. Turn off the Market Media Matrix, and concentrate on following the signal lines either short or long. We are at a point in time, where some of the signal lines are crossing and beginning to turn negative, so there will be volatility until the after the August Fed’s meeting.

Some stocks to take note of for the next week are Yahoo, Intel, Dell, Microsoft, IBM, Citicorp, Proctor and Gamble, 3 M, Honeywell, Verizon, Walmart, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Exxon, Boeing, United Technology, Altria and Google.

Good Luck
God Bless
Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Still, No Capitulation For the Bulls

2006-06-11T20:26:00.000-04:00

Still, No Capitulation For the Bulls

Many have asked for help with their portfolios in view of the last two weeks of a minor correction. The simple answer is that for the last 3 years programmed trading has ruled the market. The derivative markets have artificially created the illusion of a bull market by supporting prices at the 50 day moving average. Now that the Fed has raised short term interest rates up for 16-17 consecutive times, institutional money managers are taking their profits. Meanwhile, small investors who have been late to the party are buying stocks on the dips trying to ride the bull to new 5-6 year highs. The small investor does not have a chance when swimming in the ocean of sharks, ie. (hedge funds and institutional money managers).

I am troubled that those who will be hurt by the coming capitulation are not paying attention to their long term investments inside their pension plans. The high level of apathy with these assets will lead to more “stock market” scandals in the months ahead. You should never trust anyone with your hard earned money, especially your stock broker, your insurance agent, and your financial planner.
The problems with these advisers is they all have their self interests in mind by selling you something. The stock broker sells you stocks to buy, which his firm probably “makes a market in” and he makes a commission. The insurance agent is the most devious of all, because his favorite arsenal of assault on your assets is his ability to sell you life insurance as an investment, called “variable life.” The insurance agent also has a “financial planning’ vehicle called an annuity with many hidden charges and withdrawal fees. Some insurance agents are even selling annuities as a “tax shelters” to roll over your pension plans if you are retiring, guaranteeing you a loss of principal when you activate your payment choices. Your financial planner will charge you for his time or he will receive a commission on any financial products as part of your financial plan. He may sell you a combination of insurance, stocks, and annuities to supplement his personal income.

Your financial assets are too important to let others steer you toward bad investment decisions, by using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, you can determine when to take a profit on your long term investments, not your broker, insurance agent or financial planner.

The following rules for stock brokers. Never accept phone calls with a “hot stock” tip. You determine your stop loss and when you should protect your profits.

The rules for insurance agents: Look at last month’s statement for your variable accounts, and call the 800 number to see what the values are today. If you can’t sleep at night because the value has dropped too much, then you should probably switch your money into a money market account instead of the stock portfolio you have been in. If you have a good stock charting program like telechart 2000, you can apply the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines to mutual funds and some of the major holdings within those funds to see how the prices are holding up.

Remember, if the yellow signal line has turned downward below the red signal line, institutional investors are selling forcing prices lower.

The rules for financial planners: Use only fee based planners, those who charge per plan or charge by the hour. Don’t let him combined two or more services in one product, like life insurance and investments, or savings, or annuities and tax shelters. This rule should apply to insurance agents also, who like to combine products like insurance and so called savings plans.
Looking at the Harmonic Stock Clock’s Signal Lines, you can see most of the Indexes are ready to capitulate below the red signal line. In most cases, once the yellow signal line crosses the red signal line, a cyclical bear market will begin, just like the 1973 cyclical bear. The result were a net loss for the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Index was in excess of 40% from the previous highs. The 1973 cyclical bear market lasted approximately 18 months from Jan 73 to Oct. 74. Long term investors failed to see it happening until it was too late to protect their profits from the 1970 short term cyclical bull market. I suspect things will be much worst today with the effects of programmed trading, hedge funds, and a derivatives, such as ETF’s, sector funds and options.

Good Luck to all
Doc

5 Day Market Forecast June 11- June 20th

Dow Jones Index Forecast: high 11445, low range 10808, pivot point 10951.

NASDAQ Forecast: High range 2198, low range 2114 pivot point 2149.
CRB Index Forecast High range 350 low range 338 pivot point 343.
S&P 500 Forecast: High range 1279, low range 1241 pivot point 1257.
U. S. Dollar Forecast: High range 86.69 low range 84.29 : pivot point at 85.14
Russell 2000 Index Forecast: High range 727, low range 690, pivot point 706.
Gold Index Forecast: High range 645, low range 607 pivot points 622.
Oil Service Index Forecast: High range 219 low range 197 pivot point 205
Nikei Index : High range 15798, Low range 148680, pivot point 15093

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock should be used for Educational and training purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

When Do You Take a Profit?

2006-05-17T23:41:00.000-04:00

When Do You Take a Profit?

You tell me if you are using the Harmonic Stock Clock system? I have posted some charts for you to see the same pattern works for all stocks or indexes. Once the price has crossed the green signal line, if prices don’t move higher by 3-5 days, then prices will fall to the yellow signal line. If prices don’t bounce off the yellow signal line, the green signal line will cross over below the yellow signal line and prices will fall to the red signal line. If the green and yellow signal line cross the red signal line, then and only then will the “bear market begin for the next 18 months. The market’s total volume was very weak today, for a capitulation, we will need 6 billion shares traded by noon and 8 or more billion shares traded during the entire day. Once the signal lines, green, yellow and red are trending down, buying on the dip will lead to frustration, because the hedge funds will be shorting on the dips, driving prices lower. All rallies will be met with a short selling once the signal lines are inverted, (meaning, red signal is top, then yellow, and the green will be on the bottom.)

Good luck trading, and watch for high volume over the next two days.

Doc
http://www.doctrader.com/
http://www.harmonicstockclock.com/

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Profits, Politics, and Protection

2006-04-09T17:30:00.003-04:00

Profits, Politics, and Protection

By Doctrader.com

Starting on Monday, Americans will find out how much illegal immigration will cost businesses in profits, who will be held politically accountable, and how much it will cost for real border protection.
The Market Media Matrix dictates that all activities revolve around producing a profit. The “Market” is all forms of businesses and profits. The “Media” dictates how you should “think and feel” about businesses and events. The “Matrix” is created out of the mass consciousness of people who are not free, logical thinkers.” The “Market-Media” has created the “Matrix Reality”. When I talk to people about the high rates of taxes they just shrug their shoulders and say, “what can we do about it?” They are living their lives out in quiet desperation not realizing that they have the power to hold the politicians feet to the fire and change the “Matrix.” Due to political correctness, the false Market Media Matrix reality of “Generation X” has increased the children’s confidence and self assurances without any evidence of competency with the rest of the industrial nations.

Profits:
A profit at any cost is the American business motto, right? You can only judge a tree by the fruits it bears. There are many examples and antidotal evidence offered by the liberal news media about the benefits of illegal immigrants who are doing jobs that no one else would do. What all these stories fail to mention is that most illegal immigrants are making much more than minimum wages. The average person still believes that illegal immigrants are picking strawberries and cabbages for less than minimum wages. Illegal immigrants are being used for high paying skilled jobs, such as carpentry and masonry, landscaping, and un-skilled factory work. Which according to an immigrant advocate are averaging $15 per hour! These are the jobs everyone would want not just an illegal immigrant. In all business the largest cost factor is labor. So, given the choice of hiring an American or an illegal immigrant the businesses will hire those who will work for less money. Choosing the lower labor cost has depressed all American wage earners and increased corporation’s profits. Since it is not the businesses’ job to investigate an employee’s legal citizen status businesses can in spirit of the law and the letter of the law hire just about anyone with proper paperwork. This leads to greasing the political palms to keep the charade up of guest workers, undocumented workers and a whole host of politically correct names.

Politics:
Years ago, back in the 1980’s when I was in college I had to produce papers that I was an American citizen. Being a fan of the World War II movies I can hear in my mind the Gestapo saying, “Papers! Papers please. Show us your papers!”. When in the 1980’s the requirement of verifying citizenship was increased from a mere social security card or green card I was not a fan. I could not figure out why I had to show papers which could easily be stolen, copied, or forged and sold for a profit to illegal aliens. It would have been much simpler for the illegal immigrants to produce a “green card” allowing them to work here. The politics of producing profits was conditioning us, the law abiding American, to carry personal identification papers. The Pavlov Conditioning effects of the Market Medial Matrix created political power and profits to the politicians who supported the law.

Flash forward twenty (20) years and we have an invading army within our borders destroying our language and culture.

After 9/11 the first act of congress was to nationalize airline security by creating another political agency to “protect the American people” from hijacking. Meanwhile, the borders were left largely unguarded! The first step that should have been taken was to close the borders and not leave them wide open. This demonstrates the political incompetence of our politicians, both Democrat and Republican. Or, was it a calculated risk to gain the fast growing minority’s votes at the expense of the complacent tax burdened American voters?

The politicians never act until there is a crisis situation. They “come to the rescue” by enacting “knee-jerk public opinion polls” to make their constituents feel better Ben Franklin said, “They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” We have been fooled again with the help of the Market Media Matrix. The immigration laws have not been enforced because of the large profit potential by employing illegal immigrants without the protection of the Labor Relation Laws. Liberal politicians would like for you to believe that every illegal immigrant is doing a job that no American would like to do. Never mind they are placing illegal immigrants in potentially abusive situations. Not only are the politicians failing to protect the immigrants they are failing to protect Americans by allowing open borders.

Let’s look at some simple numbers for a reality check.

If there are 15 million illegal immigrants within our country working hard and paying taxes “are we to believe that there are not deviants amount them”? “The Market Media Matrix dictates that all poor people are hard-working and honest“. Unfortunately, the Market Media Matrix reality bubble bursts with FBI statistics.

If we take the normal distribution of deviate behavior of the US population we know that at least 1% will have criminal tendencies ranging from child molesters to murders. If 99% of the illegal immigrants are law abiding and 1% are criminals. How much are these criminals costing us? The 1% represents 150,000 potential criminals who have to be caught, prosecuted, and incarcerated. The cost to the American tax payers include educating illegal immigrant’s children, welfare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, personal injuries, auto accidents, social security fraud, and a host of other expenses.

Protection:
Congress has failed to protect and uphold their oath of office. Congress should be recalled by the American people to hold their feet to the fire for allowing profits to come before this nation’s protection.

The first duties of the congressmen are to protect and preserve the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. Last year there were 80 different nationalities of illegal immigrants were caught crossing the border from Mexico along with illegal immigrants. This undoubtedly is the greatest of security risk we have ever faced in our nation’s history. Yet, the Market Media Matrix has glossed over this major security flaw.

The first reasonable act of congress during a time of war should be to secure the borders. But in typical knee-jerk reaction they have created another useless government agency to help the airline industry.

Profits come first in America at the expense of protection. They have created the Homeland Security Agency and the TSA to protect Americans. These agencies provide very little protection against the massive open border policies which have been in place for the last 20 years. Congress has been complacently incompetent by incumbency. Congress’ complacency has been caused by voter’s incompetence repeatedly returning 95% of the politicians to office year-after-year. Through the help of the Market Media Matrix conditioning the average American by polarizing the population with stereotypical one-line sound bites. They include rich vs. poor, Republican vs. Democrat, White vs. Black, etc…grabs the attention of the average adult reading at a 5th grade level.

During last week’s protest march for illegal immigrants I witnessed the silent invasion of our country’s borders by a foreign nation. Seeing all the Mexican flags paraded throughout our streets should sound the Paul Revere Alarm. There is nothing more stirring to the American flag being raised on Iwo Jima by the marines who liberated the island from Japan during World War II. The spirit of those who fought World War II is gone today. The only worries of the Baby-boomer generation is how much profit they are going to make on their pension plans, homes, and their stock portfolios.
Congress should not make any new laws. They need to follow those already in place.

The first step is having the guts to close the borders, enforce the immigration laws, and build a secure border. The next step should be to determine who and where illegal immigrants are. Once that is determined these people should be added to the waiting list of those who are legally petitioning to enter the US.

Protection of our borders should come first over politics and profits for corporations.

God Bless

Doc

Bernanke: Batter UP!

2006-03-27T21:05:00.000-05:00

Bernanke: Batter UP!

The market anticipates the next two Federal Reserves meetings with the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke to end raising interest rates. The recent stock market rise to 5 year highs despite higher inflation may continue with momentum players driving the Dow Jones to new historic highs. This same scenario happened in the early 70’s with rising inflation boosting the Dow Jones Industrial averages to new highs breaking the 1000 point barrier. The S&P 500 index was in it’s infancy as a broad diversified hedging instrument. The new S & P 500 index marched to new highs, despite the Dow Jones Index’s trading range from 400 points to 1000 points over previous 10 years from 1966 to 1976. The short term high of the Dow Jones breaking out of this trading range marked the rising tide of inflation. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 reached its high in 1973 only to have a major correction when the Dow Jones Index began its correction. When both of these indexes began to correct, the long term investors suffered a 40% loss, which would take another 10 years to recover to new highs. History is repeating itself in today’s market with the Russell 2000 index making new all time highs while the Dow may reach a temporary new historic high of 12455.

The interesting note about the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is his lack of experience in a leadership role. The logical candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship should have been Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson. He has submitted his resignation last month. Dr. Roger Ferguson has been at the Vice Chairman position longer than Dr. Bernanke has been a member of the Federal Reserve.

I can only speculate why Dr. Ferguson was not chosen over Dr. Bernanke, but there are only 3 logical conclusions why Dr. Ferguson was not selected.

The first reason is Dr. Ferguson’s political views. Whereas Dr. Bernanke resigned his position as a Federal Reserve member to serve on the President Bush’s economic advisor from June 2005 to January 2006. The Federal Reserve Chairmanship should not be tied to political payoffs. Is this another Presidential Mistake by appointing someone with obvious political ties?
Second, maybe Dr. Ferguson was asked to serve as chairman of the Federal Reserve, but declined for various reasons; maybe the economy’s outlook is not as great as the market media matrix is saying.
Third, Dr. Ferguson is Black, and if the economy fails, like the 70’s, he did not want provide convenient racial stereotype.

The market media matrix has a “cookie cutter” stereotype of “white businessmen” who have failed or involved in criminal activity. Remember, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac scandals, how many pictures of the President of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac has you seen on television? I know one of the two are black, but can’t find the other one’s picture. Can you find their pictures on the internet? Yet, the “cookie cutter” market media matrix shows numerous pictures of those “white guys” like Ken Lay, Frank Quattrone, Bernie Evers, etc… just search for “stock scandals” and you will see numerous pictures of white guys” being caught.

The market media matrix wants you to believe that only “white guys” are

Smart enough to commit white collar crime.
The Democratic Party’s stereotype of “greedy corporations vs. working class”.

Now there are many black CEO’s in the corporate world, but if the market media matrix publicizes this information, it would ruin the Democratic Party’s racial inequality stereotype.

So, what will Dr. Bernanke when he takes his place at home plate? Will he hit a single or a double? In my opinion he should hit at least a double, meaning a ½ point rate hike and then tell everyone in a transparent move that he will wait until the August meeting to see the effects. His best option would be to set a target for the Federal Reserve’s interest rates until the home buying season is off to a good start. The biggest problem I have always had with the Federal Reserve’s policy was that it was too slow and they have always over corrected when trying to tame inflation. Their slow and methodical approach does not work with human behavior, especially when dealing with irrational stock gamblers. Unfortunately, Greenspan has left Bernanke a tough act to follow, because the bases are loaded with 15 rate hikes already. Even if Bernanke tried to hit only a single, the bond gamblers may have committed errors by their complacency with an inverted bond yield. A simple base hit could clear the bases! Greenspan definitely left the game in time after loading the bases and brining in an un-tested designated hitter. This inning is ending, and the bond gamblers want to close this inning without “window dressing” on the stock market gamblers. If the bond gamblers have errors during this week, the stock market gambles will pay the price during the next inning.

God Bless
Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals.

Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985.

No system of trading can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

The Feds Liquidity Trap Part II, Inflation or Deflation?

2006-02-24T20:49:00.000-05:00

The Feds Liquidity Trap Part II, Inflation or Deflation?

The market is walking a fine line between higher inflation and a depression. The liquidly trap that the Federal Reserve has created with the housing market will resolve by the end of this year. On the other side of the line is a 1930’s depression era recession which could last beyond the retirement years of the “baby boomers. The depression era threat is real and the new Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has studied the depression era as a hobby. His recommendations for curing the depression earned him the nickname, “helicopter Ben”, since his recommendations are to drop money from helicopters to spur economic growth in face of a depression. But first, he will have to tighten monetary supply before inflation sparks a Jimmy Carter economy. The wild fires of inflation in the housing market has spread a temporary wealth effect among unsuspecting long term stock holders. The next few months will determine if there is inflation or deflation within the economy. The severity of the housing bubble collapse will determined the next phase of inflation or deflation. Even Greenspan issued a warning last year,
Alan Greenspan just said in his speech to National Association for Business Economics on September 27, 2005, '..history cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets. Such developments apparently reflect not only market dynamics but also the all-too-evident alternating and infectious bouts of human euphoria and distress and the instability they engender.'
Remembering 2001, businesses were spending furiously on R&D and building factories. Businesses always have an incentive to overbuild because any losses can be offset in later years if they are wrong about economic conditions with one time charge write offs. The Chip manufactures had $2 Billion dollars invested all over the world with building new facilities and they were completely blindsided by the falling prices of chips in the coming years. The same thing has happened before in the home builders, who have a notorious reputation of overbuilding their markets. Similarly homebuilders are continuing building houses at a furious pace despite the length of time for the average home being on the market, now over 5 months. Meanwhile, corporate insiders are selling their company’s stock at accelerated levels. Others insiders are moving nearly 1 billion dollars a day to off shore bank accounts according to trim tabs.com.The inverted yield curve is an ominous sign and should be the signal flare for everyone to lock in profits and move money into a cash position. You can buy a short term (2-3 months) treasury bill/bond that will pay a higher interest rate than 30 year bond! This is a clear sign that something is about to change, very drastically. I explained the global financial pecking order of the financial market as Forex, commodities, bonds, and lastly stock market where the effects of inflation or deflation can be measured.
The first stages of inflation have happened with the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. The second stage is occurring now with inflating commodity prices. The third stage will begin over the next 3 months by inflating long term bond yields. Lastly, the stock market will begin to feel the effects of inflation by October of this year. I hope you are prepared for the next coming bear market.
If you remember 2001, just before the bubble popped, there were several wild swings in market valuations before the final collapse. I warned members of the yahoo group about the coming collapse July and August of 2001. So the inevitable market cycle returns to The Fed has a Six Shooter Only posted on August 21, 2001. How many interest rate hikes have we had over the last year?

6 year market performance summary

The Dow Jones Index from Jan 2000 is down -4.5%
The S&P 500 Index is down - 11%
The NASDAQ Index is down -42%
The U.S. Dollar Index is down -18%
The SOX Index measuring computer chip manufactures - 30%
The Oil Service Index is up 128%
The Gold Index is up 98$
The Commodity Research Bureau Index is up 56%
The Russell 2000 small cap Index is up 46%

The special price will only last 4 more days until the end of the month. I will personally annotate 3 of your charts when you purchase the Harmonic Stock Clock book. Time is critical if you are a long term investor. The month of March has not been kind to the “buy and hold” investors. This is the longest cyclical bull market in history without a 10% correction, since rebounding off the lows in October lows in 2002. Yet, the market has failed to make new all time high over the last 6 years. I believe that programmed computerized trading has been the culprit of this sustained trading range. If I am correct, then the correction could have far reaching effects, back to the lows of 2002.

The market will have valuation gyrations and you can capitalize on these swings if you have a game plan. The Harmonic Stock Clock will give you clear signals when to take profits.
The last 4 days only, over $600 worth of information at this low price.
God Bless
Doc

http://www.harmonicstockclock.com/
http://www.doctrader.com/
http://doctrader.blogspot.com/
http://9aheadofthecurver.blogspot.com/

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Doctrader Harmonic Stock Clock Two Week Market Forecast

2006-02-21T10:31:00.000-05:00

Doctrader Harmonic Stock Clock Two Week Market Forecast

These last two weeks have been trying times for long term investors. Meanwhile, short term traders have been very profitable by using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines for quick gains. The total number of shares trading above their 200 day moving average has held steady around 65% of the stocks which are trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The lows of this key (t2107 in telechart2000) indicator reached 40% in October of last year. Programmed trading caused by foreign investors buying U.S. equities cause the majority of these indices to move higher. The computerized programmed trading is designed to keep the well publicized indexes higher while taking profits on stocks within the index. The Russell 2000 Index is composed of 2000 smaller capitalized companies. There are 500 stocks within the Russell 2000 Index which have 80% of their shares owned by institutions. The top 1200 stocks of the Russell 2000 Index have over 50% of their shares owned by institutions. The derivatives markets are controlling the futures market and commodity prices with short term computerized programmed trading, limiting individual investors’ profits. These derivative markets keep a tight reign on the trading range of prices during the day. Despite theses restrictions and the large volumes of computerized programmed trading, the Harmonic Stock Clock has allowed users to profit with these short term moves.

Harmonic Stock Market Forecast

If price targets are reached within the next two weeks, a new target prices will be posted for these important indices. All price ranges are based upon the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal Lines, using a combination of technical analysis and my proprietary signal, Harmonic Heartbeat” for short term and long term price targets. The Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines can be applied to stocks, futures, commodities, and currencies markets. You can see the support and resistance of my harmonic stock clock signal lines on these indices as a proxy to your trading vehicles. If you would like to know more about the Harmonic Stock Clock trading and investing, you can visit my website at: http://www.doctrader.comand www. harmonicstockclock.com.

Previous post:

Dow plus or minus 400 target points,
Start range of the Dow Jones Index: 10862, lows 10737, high 11131, total actual points 394 points.

New Dow Jones Index Forecast: target points 474 High range 11173, low range 10702

NASDAQ plus or minus 150 points, start range of the NASDAQ: 2311, .lows range 2232

High range 2294. Actual range 79 points
New NASDAQ Forecast: High range 2308, low range 2227 total points 81

Commodity CRB Index plus or minus 32 points, start high range 350, lows 319, actual total 31 points

New CRB Index Forecast High range 346.88 low range 315.67 total points 31

Sp500 plus or minus 55 points, start 1280, high range 1289 lows range 1253 total points actual 36 points.

New S&P 500 Forecast: High range 1289, low range 1253 total points 36 points

U.S. Dollar plus or minus 3 points, start 88.91, high range 91.01 total points 2.1

New U. S. Dollar Forecast: High range 91.72, low range 88.53 total points 3.19

Russ2k plus or minus 72 points, starting range 733, high trading range 735, low trading range 708, actual 25 points.

New Russell 2000 Index Forecast: High range 737, low range704, total points 33.

Gold Index plus or minus 104 points, start range 571, High range 575 lows 534, actual 41 points.

New Gold Index Forecast: High range 570, low range 530 total points 40.

Oil Service Index plus or minus 55 points, start 221, and High range 223, Low range
188 actual total points 35

New Oil Service Index Forecast: High range 219.41 low range 183.09 total point range 36

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Free Harmonic Stock Clock Training Charts for members of this Group

2006-02-08T23:51:00.000-05:00

If you are concerned about your long term or short term stock holding, I will annotate your stock charts to give you a free "docsstockclock" check up. All you have to do is send me a picture of your favorite stocks, futures, or currency, and I will demonstrated the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines on my charts to let you compare with your charts. I will give you a technical view based on the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines for educational and training purposes only. This free technical analysis of your charts is my way of saying happy Valentine’s Day to all the members of my yahoo group.

How to Send Me Your Charts

The best way to send me a picture of your charts is to do the following.
Bring up your trading charts. Now, just click the “print screen” button on you keyboard, near the F12 or scroll lock button. Then open your window's “paint” program". If case you don’t know where the paint program is, it is under “Start_ Programs_ Accessories_ Paint. “ Then open the paint program's window, then right click and “click paste”, the chart should appear in the paint program's window. Then click file and save your chart as a “jpeg” or “gif” file format. Then just send me an email with the chart attached so that I can see what you are looking at when you are trading. I can then review the chart and make notes comparing your charts with the Harmonic Stock Clock chart's signal lines. You will now have a second opinion based on the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines.

It is really that simple to copy your long term or trading charts. I would recommend that you have trader’s log program to keep track of your trading habits. I use a program called " I daily diary , which is a free program. You can then paste your own trading charts and comments for a daily diary of your trading record. By saving a diary of your trading, you will be able to spot repeated errors which may cost you serious money. I am looking forward to your charts.

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic Clock site is intended for Educational purposes only. The use of all charts, illustrations, and theories are based on the Harmonic Stock Clock Book. The purpose of this site is to use stocks, options, futures, commodities, ETF's, and currencies for short and long term investments. Examples used by this site may not be suitable for all investors, consult with your tax advisor for any ramifications of short term gains and or losses. No recommendations are given. You are considered to be over 18 years old. Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Doc's Harmonic Stock Market Forecast

2006-01-31T14:46:00.000-05:00

Doc's Harmonic Stock Market
forecast is based on using my harmonic stock clock signal lines. The
trend is your friend, any prices trading in a trend through 1 or more
signal lines will continue in the direction of the trend until hitting
resistance from another signal line. The U.S.Dollar index has the yellow signal line above all others, this
is a bearish indicator. The dollar's green signal and red signal line
are within 1 day's trading range and is offering temporary support. The
U.S. Dollar has been oscillating downward with resistance from the
yellow signal line in mid December. The first rejection sent the dollar
lower to the red signal line. The next test of the red and green signal
line may come this week. Failure of red signal line support could lead
to a cascade sell off to the 2005 lows. The U.S. dollar's weakness is
due to inflationary factors in the market, as express by the rising
value of the Gold index. My previous charts in the blog concerning
the value of stock prices and gold prices since 2003 will show the
inflationary period pushing stock prices higher along with the value of
oil. The strongest signs of inflation are within these charts, gold vs.
Dow last 9 years.

The Fed will continue to raise rates higher, until the market has become
unhinged with the rising price of gold, just as the market did in 1997.
The inflation problem will be compounded by rising bond prices, falling home prices, and the baby boomers reactions to these events. I feel the market has conditioned
the baby boomers to the "buy and hold" market theory to sit on the side
lines as the value of their pension plans and homes are eroded away by inflation.

Here is Harmonic Stock Clock History Lesson. I wrote this in March
2001.

Unfortunately for the techoholics who are hanging onto their tech
because "it can't get any worse than this," our technical forecast of
the last few weeks has proven to be deadly accurate.

Based on our new analysis of earnings growth rates and REASONABLE P/Es,
before summer is over you should expect to see a whole list of
"teenagers" and low-20 prices that you never thought possible.
Including:

Cisco (CSCO) $15-$16
EMC (EMC) $22-$25
Oracle (ORCL) $12
BEA Systems (BEAS) $18
Rational Software (RATL) $15
Siebel Systems (SEBL) $15
Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $12

God Bless

Doc

-------------------

Two Week's Harmonic Stock Clock Market Forecast

The Forecast says, plus or minus, depending on signal lines. Using two
signal lines or three to determine the long-term trend for long term
investors. If you are a day trader or swing trader, when prices cross
one or two signal lines, prices move explosively in the short term
trend, as defined by the green signal line. Following the Green signal
line for 3-6 days for the trend when supported by another signal line.

Dow plus or minus 400 points

Sp500 plus or minus 55 points

Nasdaq plus or minus 150 points

U.S. Dollar plus or minus 3 points

Russ2k plus or minus 72 points

Gold Index plus or minus 104 points

Oil Service Index plus or minus 55 points

Commodity CRB Index plus or minus 32 points

God Bless

Doc

Harmonic Stock Clock

Doc's Harmonic Clock is intended for Stocks, ETF's, options and Futures Index trading. This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock predicts market reversals.
When trading furures,currencies,commodities, or stocks in world markets.
Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless America

Doctrader

Google God is a False God

2006-01-20T13:08:00.000-05:00

The Google God is a False God

There are 4 problems that are plaguing Google. These are the same problems that are plaguing American society and our future involving the internet.

The first problem is that of privacy. The Market Media Matrix is everywhere, engrained in our lives, more than we care to realize.

The second problem, is who will determine the boundaries of our privacy. Either the government will ultimately control everything, or the Market Media Matrix will control everything. Given the relationships between government official and the lobbyists, those two imposters can be treated as one.

The average citizen’s complacency of security/safety over privacy. This generation is living in a “Mysterious Babylon” we call the internet. We have surpassed the invasion of privacy by living in George Orwell’s novel, “1984“. There is no place you can run or hide without being seen by a camera. Your emails are all saved and stored. All your search engines results and every website you have ever visited has been saved and catalogued by the Market Media Matrix on the internet. All chat room dialogues are saved and stored.

Third, every movement outside of the internet is watched, monitored, and achieved by your cellar phone companies. You car may be “low jacked” from the rental company or your own global position satellite (GPS) navigation unit installed in your car. Your credit cards are all monitored categorized. You are not even safe when you go to the grocery store. Do you have a super market check cashing card with an RF ID tag on your key chain? You grocery store habits are monitored, tracked, data mined for future purchases. You ever buy something without a “bar code” label on it? “Data Mined”, a term used for creating wealth out of non personal information for the purpose of future anticipated market needs. Sure, they say non identifiable information, but every communication comes from an identifiable computer name and a internet address.

Fourth, where is the off switch? How can we go back before internet growth curve was directly attributed to the growth of porn? You see, the biggest driving factor in the growth of the internet ia porn. Without porn, the internet’s growth would have still been in the hands of big corporations, it would have taken many more years for the general public to adapt to the internet. After all, who want to read just words? Look at the fax machine, invented during world War II, was adopted by the general public, but used as a business tool. I will be writing more the relationship of porn on the internet at 9 Ahead of the Curve.

Goggle Stock Price

Those who have been on the internet since 1997 have seen the simple buzz promotional efforts of another “dot com? stock like Google. In my chicken straddle alerts we have made huge profits trading in Google’s stock options. It looks like we are going to make huge profits on the Google bear-puts options too. Google in no way should be worth what some people are paying for it.

Since Google is not paying any dividends, what is the stock really worth? I have been monitoring the news groups on Google, and the complaints by webmasters who are trying to figure out why their websites have dropped or disappeared from the search results in Google. Building a company based on add revenue was tricky in the days before there was an internet. Now it is nearly impossible to build a company solely on ad revenue. The new changes that are sweeping through the internet world cannot be realized until they have reached the point of no return. Just a few years ago, most people were connected through the internet by a dial up connections. We have begun the next level of integration to the internet though our lives. Bypassing the wired internet connection to that of wireless broadband through our cell phones. No one could foresee the end of long distance telephone carriers being replaced by wireless cell phone and internet voip (voice of ip). People who are “true believers” that the Google God can re-make the world in 7 days will be sadly mistaken. I have maintained that earnings mean nothing, unless your are paid something for stock ownership. These Performa earnings can be anything the company wants. Remember Enron, Worldcom, Global Crossing and 2000 other stocks that are no longer trading? Remember the days when Yahoo was trading as high as Google? When the Google God fails, the beginning of the bear market will begin in earnest. You see, I doesn’t matter what Google does, there is competition between the Yahoo, and AOL, MSN, and the new kids on the block at, www. myspace.com The internet is evolving at the speed of light, and no one company can ever have the advantage that Microsoft enjoyed before the Feds closed the monopoly door.. The Market Media Matrix would love for you to still believe in the free enterprise and free capitalism, but those days are long gone with the internet growth explosion. The Market Media Matrix and the internet are merging into one super data mining and advertising machine. The mysterious internet Babylon never sleeps, never forgets, and is always watching you.

God Bless

Doc.

PS. I expect the Google God to fill the previous upside gap around $350, so time will tell how the Market Media Matrix will treat the fallen Google God.

Market Media Matrix

2006-01-12T14:04:00.001-05:00

The December 19, 2005 edition of Newsweek, an article by Jane Bryant Quinn titled "Investing Goes Back to Basics" includes the following text: “All-in-one funds are also the cure for people who think they can "time" the market by buying stocks when they start to rise and switching to cash before they fall. A new study by the University Of Michigan School Of Business, funded by Towneley Capital Management, throws a wet towel on those dreams.”

Now you have to stop and think about who is funding this study, a capital management company. In case you don’t know this either, the University of Michigan issues a report about consumer confidence on Friday mornings. What you may not know is that the University of Michigan sells the results of this report on Thursday to companies for advance release. When the report is released on Friday mornings, those with advance knowledge have already traded on the information through the futures market. The Market Media Matrix strikes again.

Getting back to the report of market timing versus long term “buy, hold, and hope strategy,” the article written by Jane Bryant Quinn’s says, “If you invested $1 in the market in 1963 and held through 2004, it would have grown to $75, with dividends reinvested“. Wow, I bet you just can’t wait for each dollar you have invested to “grow” to $75 in only 42 years!

The previous statement is called “the bait”, in the bait and switch selling technique. Here comes the switch. “But markets move in spurts. If you happened to miss the 90 best-performing days out of that 42-year span, you'd have earned only $2.70.” Not only is this the switch, but they have include a dire warning that if you try market timing, you will end up broke! My interest was peaked when I saw the 90 best performing days mentioned in the article. So, what this article is saying, you only needed to invest money for 90 days to make your money grow, the other (365 days X 42 years= 15,330) -90 days= 15240 days) 15240 days your money is just sitting there doing nothing.

The true purpose of this study is based in the next statement. “However, if you guessed right to avoid the worst 90 days, you'd have turned $1 into $1,694.” Are you scratching your head now? I guess my mind just works different than most people, because I try to see things logically, so this is what I am thinking.

Choices A, buy, hold, hope for 42 years for 90 good days in the market, results $75.
Choice B, time the market yourself and miss the best 90 performing days, results $2.70
Choice C, use market timing to avoid the worst performing 90 days of the market, results $1694.

Given the choices of A, B, or C, everyone would want choice C. So how does one go about learning how to time the market? The Harmonic Stock Clock uses simple rules to help you do your own market timing for your own stocks. How does the Harmonic Stock Clock help you do this? Look at the sample charts below, you will see the ideal time to buy a stock and the best time to avoid market tops.

Click here if you would like more info, coming soon at : the Harmonic Stock Clock

God Bless

Doc

Harmonic|Stock|Clock|

2006-01-12T09:33:00.000-05:00

The New Harmonic Stock Clock Book Website is up and running

Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence

2005-12-22T16:19:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year

Which stock would you buy? Chart # 1 or Chart # 2?
Doctrader introducing a new stock market term called, Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence.

Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence

This year’s market closing is a lesson in mediocrity at best with the market moves being dictated by the large volume of program trading. Making new highs in the market is dependent upon new retail investor’s money. I just love the excited looks on the teleprompter’s face as the market nears 11,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The teleprompter’s enthusiasm which is so infectious almost makes me think we went back in time to 1999. Remember 1999, it seemed like every week the Dow Jones Index hit a new century mark. The market moved from 10,000 to 11,000 in only 1 week! Everyday in 1999, the market started off like a NFL pre-game show. Maria creates viewer excitement in the morning. She was walking and shouting above the noisy trading floor when the opening bell rang. The ringing of the bell caused a buying frenzy with the Dow Index up 100 points in 5 minutes. The news reporters are on the floor, screaming above the market’s matrix noise. Ding, Ding, Ding, just as Pavlov’s dog training research dictates, buy low and sell higher before lunch. Traders after a 2-3 martini lunch were back on the floor buying more. The good “ole” days, of buying stocks like Rambus, watching it go higher by $50-$80 a day. The “dot.com” companies hopping on the greed bandwagon with Wall Street’s investment bankers to issue stock with public offerings. The “dot.com” companies had “Performa earnings“, waiting to be transformed into a “blue chip” company with a fairy tale ending. The “dot bombs” would be their names in the future. Those “good ole” days created “Urban Legends” of “day traders” being locked up all year long, only to emerge from their self imposed exile as millionaires. Then there were the commercials, showing a retiring tow truck driver who owned his own island (country) with the savvy skills of day trading. He used a newspaper and traded online to make his fortune! “Microstrategy” (MSTR) stock soared to $300 a share, sponsored “Super Bowl” ads! Yet, by August of 2002, this stock was valued at 44 cents! The dot bomb companies were going broke, dragging into bankruptcy some of the S&P 500 largest employers. Companies like Enron, World Com, and 3000 others. The “dot bombs” quietly faded away, to the dismay of investors who never learned any “technical analysis” sell signals. The long term investor’s motto was “it can’t go any lower” and “it is so cheap now” while the bear market swept through the NASDAQ market. The NASDAQ market lost 87% of it value, from 5000 points to a low of 1200 points. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 Index lost 45% of it’s value Those un-wittingly investors who believed in a “fairy tale ending“, were left holding empty bags of hot air as paper profits turned into lumps of coal.

It hard to believe those days were only 5 years ago…
When at this time of year, red eyed day traders were full of cheer
And their trading accounts had no fear.
They couldn‘t wait to hear the morning bell,
Only to hold for hours, then to sell.
They drove prices higher and higher,
Leaving the short sellers and the bears dryer.
Later that year, the bears and short sellers were the ones to fear,
As the markets sold off, year after year.
In 2003, when all hope was gone and there was nothing but fear,
Everyone climbed aboard the money train with cheer.
Like all bull markets, investors have no fear,
“Buy, buy, buy and hold“, is all they hear.
When Greenspan raises the alarm,
Investors believe they cannot be harmed.
Meanwhile, secular markets will continue churn,
As Harmonic Clock investors have learned.
There is no such thing as buy and hold,
By the time you earn a profit, you will be old.
Follow the Harmonic signal lines and save time,
So you can retire early with plenty of wine.
Pick up a copy of “The Harmonic Stock Clock” before it is too late,
Over the next 3 months, technical analysis will prove to be great!

In my last newsletter I talked about a possibility of the Dow Jones Index reaching 12,400. However, with 65% of the market’ trading volume caused program trading; I don’t see that happing this year. Three weeks ago the Federal Reserve raised rates again, and the Alcazar will raise interest rates again in January, February, and March. I expect the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates until the Dow Jones moves below 10,000 points. Natural gas has hit an all time high with the first major snow storm to sweep across the country. Gold has hit an 18 year high, just as the Harmonic Stock Clock cycle pattern predicts. The Federal Reserve is not concerned about the stock market; their fear is the housing bubble they have created by lowering rates in the face of deflation. That’s right, the Fed claims to fight inflation, but their fear is deflation. Today, the Feds claims to be fighting inflation, but in reality they are trying to re-inflate the economy and deflate the housing bubble. As usual the Fed rate cycle is behind the curve! The Federal Reserve raising rates higher now is adding fuel to the inflation fire.
Doing my stock scans this weekend, there will be intensified tax loss selling going into any rally during the first few weeks of January. I used a scan called that I call “cognitive pricing reminiscence.” The Standards & Poors 500 Index has only 266 stocks with a positive gain over the last 5 years. Meanwhile, 234 stocks are negative for the last 5 years. One of the top 5 performers in the S&P 500 Index is Reebok. The shoe company stock is up 616% since 12/31/1999. Now, Reebok is very important to our national economy, right? Which of these two stocks have had the best performance over the last 5 years using cognitive pricing reminiscence, GM or GE? The answer is…. (Keep reading) Where are the big winners from 1999? If you guessed at the bottom of the list, you would be right. Companies like, J D S Uniphase (JSDU) -98%, Amazon (AMZN) -40%, Gateway (GTW) -96%, Intel (INTC) -70%, Motorola (MOT) -82%, Corning (GLW) -83%, Sun Micro (SUNW) -94%, Ciena (CIEN)-94%, Cisco (CSCO) -83%, Merck (MRK) -50%, General Motors (GM) -73%, General Electric (BE) -77%, Time Warner (TWX) -77%, Yahoo (YHOO) -90%, Microsoft (MSFT) -75%), Oracle (ORCL) -89%, and Qualcomm (QCOM) -93% at the bottom 5th of the S&P 500.

What, your charts don’t agree?

There is cognitive pricing reminiscence which can be identified by looking at stock charts without adjustments for stock splits. Most stock charts reflect stock splits by adjusting the prices backwards, in order to make a smooth transition between stock splits and their post split prices. While this is convenient for charting and technical analysis, it doesn‘t reflect the power of cognitive pricing reminiscence. The real prices of stocks before stock splits are subconsciously remembered by investors. Looking strictly at stock price levels, most people don’t realize there have been stock splits unless they actually own theses stocks in their portfolios. The mutual fund holders don’t recognize when a stock has split, regardless if the mutual fund is inside a 401(k) plan or not. It has been said that 80% of the Americans are invested in the stock market through their retirement plans or by direct stock ownership. If you can look at a stock chart using my cognitive pricing reminiscence (CPR) screen, you can see the complete true picture of stock prices.

Looking at the two charts posted in this letter, which stock would you buy, chart #1 or chart #2? I can tell you they are both the same stock! Both charts are of General Electric, one is using the cognitive pricing reminiscence (CPR) and the other chart is adjusted for stock splits. Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence shows you the actual price of the stock. These are the prices that are quoted in newspapers and television.

For example, if I look at a chart of General Electric since 12-31-99 to the present, I have a negative -77% price appreciation over the last 5 years. Now, that is remarkable, because on the same basis, General Motors, which has not had any stock splits over these last 5 years has actually faired better on the rate of return, only down -73%. Now, Wall Street’s motives have to be questioned, because they say that stock splits don’t mean anything. I can’t remember time when the price of General Electric stock has ever traded in the $30’s. Last weekend, the former CEO of General Electric, Jack Welch, was on the financial shows saying the economy is the strongest he has every seen. I didn’t hear an answer about his former company‘s stock lagging performance. The last stock split on General Electric stock was in May of 2000, a 3 to 1 stock split, at $165 per share. Basically, you are given 3 shares of stock for everyone 1 share you owned before the split. Owning 1,000 shares before the stock split gives you 3000 shares after the split. The price of $165 is also adjusted by 1/3 to reflect the increased number of shares you own. The share price of $165 is divided by 3 = new share price of $55! This is where cognitive pricing reminiscence becomes a factor when looking at actual prices of General Electric‘s stock.. General Electric’s stock is currently trading at $35 per share. The current price of General Electric’s stock is still negative from the last post split value of $55 a share. If you would have bought GE’s stock 10 years ago, guess what? The price was higher 10 years ago! In fact, you would have to go back to Jan 1988, to buy GE stock below $35 a share! Throughout the 90’s, the stock never traded below $48 a share the majority of the time. However, if you were looking at a split adjusted chart you would see the price of General Electric’s stock was trading around $8.50 10 years ago, which is False because of stock splits!

See my Chart of General Electric cognitive pricing reminiscence 10 years ago.

Cognitive pricing

The market is experiencing cognitive pricing reminiscence because investors remember these higher prices 5 years ago. They watch television and read a few newspaper quotes in their daily paper. To see GE‘s stock with a 5 year high of $ 55 will not inspire anyone to invest. The general public is suffering cognitive pricing reminiscence because their subconscious mind remembers when these prices were much, much higher than they are today.

Charting Troubling Waters

Using the typical “split adjusted charting,” GE’s stock chart shows trading around $8.50 a share in 1995. General Electric’s stock never traded at $8.50 a share, but that price is used to adjust for stock splits. Using the typical split adjusted software; it appears you have had a big gain on the stock of (GE) over these last 10 years. The total rate of return of 318%! However, the 300% gain is still -50% less than what the post stock splits suggest, being 6 to 1 over the last 10 years. If GE’s stock had a stock value of $50 a share, you would have 6 times the number of shares; your gains should be 600%, not 318% over the last 10 years.
In 1995, the share price of General Electric’s stock price was at $50 a share, today the price is at $35. General Electric’s stock price is still down 30% after 10 years using cognitive pricing reminiscence. Stock Market cognitive pricing reminiscence affects people who are not shareholders, because they are seeing the prices quoted everyday in the newspaper. Hence, no one wants to own a stock if the high price was $165 a share 5 years ago and today is at $35 a share today. The cognitive pricing reminiscence can be seen on all stocks which have had multiple stock splits during the last secular bull market. Stock market cognitive pricing reminiscence is reflected by the small numbers of retail investors over these last 5 years. While program trading, (using a basket of 15 or more stocks with over 10,000 shares,) is ruling the market’s trading volume. Program trading is creating huge commission for Wall Street’s brokerages houses. Most of the program trading is being conducted by foreign investors and hedge fund managers, who may not, recognized cognitive pricing. These fund managers have never been involved in a secular bear market, like the one we experienced from 1966 to 1984. These foreign investors may also be using the typical split adjusted charting software, giving them false trading signals.

Harmonic Stock Clock Cycles Overcomes Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence.

Let’s take two examples of investors, one using the “buy and hold” strategy, the other one using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines. First the buy and hold investor.

You buy 1000 shares for $50,000 10 years ago, and with stock splits of 6-1 you now have 6,000 shares today. General Electric had 2 stock separate stock splits in those 10 years; the first split was on 5-12-97 for 2 to1. The next stock split was on 5-08-00 for 3-1, totaling 6 shares for every one that was held over those 10 years. (2 for 1 and 3 for 1 = 6 shares)
Total gain is 6000 shares X $50= $300,000 shortly after the last split. However, the value of these shares dropped to a new low, below $25 a share. If you multiple the shares by the low price, your account value would drop from $300,000 to $150,000. (6000 shares X $25= $150,000) At this low point of “maximum pain“, most people would begin to liquidate those shares… Most “buy and hold” shareholders are in “shareholders houses of pain“. Currently General Electric stock is trading at $35 a share times 6000 shares (post split) = $210,000. Now the buy and hold investor has seen his account draw down between $300,000 and a new low $150,000. Recently, the share prices have moved the account value up to $210,000 as GE’s stock is trading at $35 per share. The long term “buy and hold” investor might be tempted to continue to hold his stock, he is almost back to even. Now, every dip in stock prices reinforces his resolve to hold even longer into the house of pain. Sometimes, this conditioning is so great, that people will ride a stock down to bankruptcy.

However, active traders who are using The Harmonic Clock Signals lines would lock in any profits knowing that a cyclical bear market is approaching and no new highs will be reached over the next 18 to 36 months.

The second investor, The Harmonic Stock Clock investor, using the Harmonic Stock Clock signals, could have bought GE’s Stock at $50 a share and participated in the secular bull market. General Electric had 2 stock separate stock splits in those 10 years. The first split was on 5-12-97 and the next stock split was on 5-08-00. Harmonic Investor would have 6 shares for every one share that was held over those 10 years. (2 for 1 and 3 for 1 = 6 shares) As an active investor, using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, he would have bought GE’s stock at $50 a share, then sold them after holding the stock from 1-1-95 to 5-09-2000, collecting his stock split’s the just as the “buy and hold investor“. However, since the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines were flashing a warning signal for the end of the 18 year bull market, he would take profits at $50 a share. If he has sold his 6000 shares at $50 he would have $300,000 in cash. The Harmonic Stock Clock investor has two choices at this point in time. He could continue to sit in a cash position until the long term Harmonic Stock Clock signals another short term bull market or he could be more aggressive with his account.

Shorting Stock

Everyone that says shorting a stock is risky has never done it before. The purpose of buying any stock is to buy low and sell high. The only way you make money with this approach is when prices are going higher. What happens when prices move lower? You loose money, right. What if we could sell higher first, then buy low when the prices are lower? I know, you say you don’t have any stock to sell first, so let’s borrow some stock from our friendly broker. If we borrow the stock first, we are free to sell it to someone else in the market who wants to buy it, right? After a few days, months, or years, we buy the stock in the market at a lower price. If we sold GE’s stock for $50 two years ago, then we can buy the stock in the market for $25 dollars, right?
Sold high first for $50, then buy low for $25 = $25 profit. We are just reversing the adage, “buy low and sell high“, now we are “selling high and buying low.
Selling high and buying low is how we make money in bear markets (declining) markets.
This is called “shorting stock“.

Continuing on with the Harmonic Stock Clock investor…
He would sell short GE’s stock after the last stock split, because we are entering into a secular bear market. The trend is your friend; in this case, we have been in a long term bear trend which will continue for some time. He will only short 3000 shares of stock at post stock split at $50 a shares keeping the rest of his profits in reserve. Over the next 27 months, GE’s stock price moved to a new low below $25 a share. Shorting GE’s stock at $50 a share with 3000 shares and “buying stock to cover the short sell” at $25 a share would make a nice profit of $25 per share, or $75,000 profit on his 3000 shares he sold short. Now he has 150,000 in cash, plus $75,000 profit from shorting the stock, In addition he has the original $150,000 he used to short 3000 shares of GE’s stock. Total in his account is now $375, 000 in his account! The Harmonic Clock short term bull market began in March, 2003, he will use his money to buy long in the next mini bull market. He could go long, after GE’s stock traded to new lows below $22. Using his $375,000 to buy shares of GE’s stock at $25 per share, would give him control of 15,000 shares of General Electric’s stock. ($375,000/$25= 15,000 shares)
The 10 point move from $25 to $35 would make create another $150,000 of profits.

Now his account has $375,000 plus $150,000 more in profits should he sell his 15,000 shares at $35 per share? (15,000 X $35 = $525,000)

Should the Harmonic Stock Clock investor choose not to short the stocks, he would still have $300,000 in cash to buy long the stock of GE at $25 per share, giving him control of 12,000 share of General Electric stock. ($300,000/$25= 12,000 shares) After GE’s stock moved higher from $25 to $35, he could sell those 12,000 shares for $ $120,000 profit. This would bring his account up to $420,000 in cash. In both situations, the Harmonic Stock Clock investor has much more money in his account than the “buy and hold” investor. He has also avoided the sharp down drafts in his account, unlike the “buy and hold” investor. The Harmonic Stock Clock investor is able to profit in bear markets, accumulating more shares as prices fall. Notice, by shorting the GE’s stock at $50, and buying to cover, the Harmonic Stock Clock investor also earned money while everyone else was loosing money.

Meanwhile, the buy and hold investors is simply floating in a row boat, without a paddle subjected to the rising and falling tides of the market. Everyday, he wakes up hoping that prices will move higher. The buy and hold investor has significantly less shares than the Harmonic Stock Clock investor. (6000 vs. 15,000) The active Harmonic Stock Clock investor can control 12,000 to 15,000 shares of GE’s stock, whereas the buy and hold investor can control only 6000 shares of GE’s stock.

What happens in 2006?
If we are entering into a bear market, which type of investor do you want to be?

Investor A
$50,000 over 10 years, 6,000 shares X $35 = $210,000

Harmonic Clock investor
$50,000 over 10 years, 15,000 share X $35=$525,000

Ok, so the moral of this story, is stock splits do make a difference by diluting your actual rates of return. Hence Warren Buffet’s stock has never had a stock split. Number two, market timing is everything and the Harmonic Clock will help by identifying bull and bear market trends. Three, by understanding Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence, you will be able to identify truly the best stocks to own for the long term.

To help you with start off the New Year profitable, I have discounted the Harmonic Stock Clock book by 30% and have included 10 free bonus books to help you make smart investment decisions. This special pricing is only limited to the first 300 new orders only!
The free bonus books are:
Discovering Who You Are
Psychology of Trading
Day trading Mindset
Emotional Free Trading
Psychology of Trading
Winning Psychology
Forex short Trend Trading
Market Profile Basics
Intro to Candlestick Charts
Candlestick Charting Basics
Basic Fibonacci Principles
The Harmonic Stock Clock
Plus over 160 of my personal trading charts with notes on
Buy and sell signals on the Dow and E mini

I have also included a free month in my special “chicken straddle options and stock” premium site. Using options turbo charges profits when combined with the Harmonic Stock Clock Signals.
Notice, I have included books on the psychology of trading because the difference between trading and investing is only time. The trader’s time horizon is minutes to days, while the investor’s time frame my by months to years. The mental skills needed for day trading are the same skills needed for long term investing. There is always a battle in your mind about making the right decisions to buy, or sell, and that is where 90% of the traders and investors fail. Investments for long term are a bigger gamble than day trading. Did you read that right? I said long term investments are a bigger gamble than day trading!
Short term traders will know within minutes if they are right about a trend. Unfortunately, long term investors will not realize if they are right for months, years, and decades! If you have a “buy and hold” mentality, you are truly gambling on the future. Just looking at the past performances of the wining stocks 5 years ago and how they have performed in a bear market. The missed opportunity of time for long investors is the biggest gamble of all.

To receive the special package of trading and investing tools for 2006 click here:
http://www.freewebs.com/docsstockclock/harmonicclockbook.htm

God Bless
Doc

Hurry, this special pricing is only limited to the first 300 new orders only!

Face Off: Foolish Fed vs. Faithful Bull

2005-10-31T15:04:00.000-05:00

Face Off: Foolish Fed vs. Faithful Bull

The Federal Reserve, (Alcazar) will once again raise rates to curb inflationary fears spurred by high energy prices, unsustainable consumer spending, and un controllable government deficit spending. The Alcazar will give the stock market Bulls the “dirty dozen” rate hikes over the last 12 months, and they will probably continue to raise the prime rate as long as they see inflation on the horizon. In my article called “the Fed is not your friend”, (Jan 3, 2004) http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/docsstockclock/ message 504
I stated a fact about the Federal Reserve, they could care less what the faithful bulls want! Yet, I cannot understand the loyalty attributed to the Foolish Fed by the faithful bulls. Every money manager on Wall Street has the Fed’s play book, which says, you can’t expect new market highs when the Fed is raising interest rates. It has never happened, since higher interest rates cause long term capital withdrawal from the stock market. As interest rates move higher, stocks become less attractive to long term stock investors. Meanwhile bond interest rates increase, causing inflation and higher deficit spending by the government. Given a choice between a 6% return on the bond, or a 4% return on a stock, most will choose bonds. Bottom line, as the Foolish Fed raises interest rates, stocks will fall. No one knows at what point in time or what level of interest rate hikes will kill the desire to invest in stocks, but surely we are moving close to the breaking point than farther away. When the Foolish Fed was fighting inflation, (or was it deflation ,2001?), they killed the market faithful bull with rate hikes. Then after 9/11 attack, began a series of aggressive rate cuts, driving down the prime rate to a record low of .75%, making stocks attractive with their 3-4% earnings based on the S&P 500 index. The foolish Fed’s aggressive interest rate cuts caused a housing bubble, compounded with favorable tax treatment of long term capital gains treatment on the sale of a primary residence. If you were not aware of the change in long term capital gains treatment for homes, you have probably not sold a home over the last 5 years. If you had sold your home, you would have no taxes on your long term capital gains. The law was changed so that you can keep all the long term capital gains on a sale of a primary residence, as long as you lived in the home for 2 out of the last 5 years. There is no requirement to buy another home, nor any age restrictions, nor any one time exclusions, you were free to buy and sell 2 homes every 5 years as your primary residence. Upon the sale of these homes, all long term capital gains were excluded from taxes. Hence, the value of homes begin appreciating in double digits, just like the stock market double digit gains before the bubble collapsed. Some aggressive home buyers, have bought 2 homes within those 5 years, each time making substantial long term capital gains when selling the home, without paying any taxes. Recently, Greenspan warned of the creative financing of some of these homes with adjustable rate mortgages, piggy back mortgages, and interests only mortgages, which could back fire on the lenders. You see, the Foolish Fed is only concerned about banking, not about the faithful bulls, so if the mortgage lenders get into financial trouble with defaulting loans, guess who will be paying for collapse? That’s right, you the tax payer through FDIC insurance bailout. Some people may remember the savings and loan bailout, I hate to mention names, but at the center of that controversy wasn’t there a “Bush”.

The short term traders view of this market is great! The program trading gurus are keeping the market afloat using my harmonic stock clock signals lines, buying at just the right opportunity, and shorting the stocks at my resistance lines, doubling up on their profits. Meanwhile, the smaller short term swing trader are paying the costs with trading commisions and equity draw downs in their accounts. The wild swings in the indices were caused by the large money managers creating a opportunity by going long at key harmonic stock clock levels with the small investors and trader jumping on the bandwagon trying to catch the updraft one day, then taking the pain pill the next day. If you had been following the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, you could see the explosive buying activity as the indices crossed the green daily signal line, only to collapse when hitting the yellow executioner line. Since, 10-19-05, for the Dow index, the S&P500 index, there have been six major moves across the green signal line. There have been rejection of the yellow or red signal lines for shorting opportunities. As I am writing this on Monday morning, the faithful bulls playing their Trump cards, “Merger Monday”. I would challenge anyone to find me 1 stock who’s stock price is higher after the merger. I don’t know of any stock, so if you know of one, let me know in the comment section of this blog.

Why do mergers fail for shareholders? It is a simple tactic to hide the accounting trash that has accumulate with both company’s books, and after the merger, the company will site earning failure due to merging costs and one time earning exclusion charges. Yet, the faithful bulls believe in “cost savings”, “expanding markets“, “market share,” which is the same tired mantra perma bulls always use to create excitement for the un-informed investors.

Over the next few months, there will be a thanksgiving rally, and a Santa Clause rally, after all, the markets wouldn’t want to disappoint the faithful bulls. Although, these are called rallies, they will not set any new market highs, and the trading range will continue until next year. By the first of the year, the heating bills, the Christmas shopping season, and the higher interest rates will be weighing on the consumer, which could make for an explosive opportunity for those who are using the Harmonic Stock Clock indicators.

Good luck
God Bless

Doc

Ben Bernanke Bounce, NOT

2005-10-24T19:04:00.000-04:00

Ben Bernanke Bounce, NOT

Everyone, not just those who have losing money on the wrong side of the bear market, have been waiting for an excuse to manipulate the market to move higher ground. The Harmonic Stock Clock signaled to go long for the Dow index around 10280, letting you ride the bull for over 100 points.

The market tested the floor right after the master harmonic pivot time, then screamed higher over the next hour. It just took a little buying in the pre-market to get the market's fear going for a short squeeze. It is very funny, in my last post I warned about the market's fear of missing a rally. Well, if you had been using my Harmonic Stock Clock trading system, you would have recognized the "big move" upward crossing my key signal lines in this morning's trading. The Bernake bounce...lol had nothing to do with the market manipulators buying long future contracts on Monday morning to create an artificial bounce, one week before the Federal Reserves Fiddles again with the prime rates. Yes, that is right folks, the Fed will raise rates up again next week, and they will continue to do it in December's Federal reserve meeting. The sad truth is that no one, not even the Federal reserve can control inflation, and the fed has always been behind the curve gauging the economy's inflation /deflation curves. I pointed out in my post last week, the hedge funds would hold the markets at a stable area before the retiring Alcalde of the Federal Alcazar would be replaced by yet another "accommodating academic administrator."

Meanwhile, the Alcazar’s calculations for inflation are absolutely worthless to those who ingest carbohydrates and use hydrocarbons, yet, the government is increasing the social security benefits to retirees...maybe to offset the inflationary cost of food and energy.

The last time the Dow posted such a strong one day advances of plus 120 points, was on 10-19-05, 9-06-05, and 7-08-05, when crossing the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines. The biggest losses when crossing the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines were on, 6-23-05, 2-22-05, and 10-??-05. Even with two days of triple digit gains, the Dow the sp500 are still below 2 of 3 signal lines, while the NASDAQ and rus2k are above 2 out of 3 signal lines.

I don't know where we are going from here, but keep an eye on the signal lines for your short term trades and your long term investment bottom line. This is the perfect time for traders to trade, as long as we don’t hit the trading curves, this market is giving you a license to print money. The market’s direction is only temporary, if there is follow through on Tuesday and Wednesday, then going higher will be based on the greed factor of those who will have made a huge profit since the lows this morning in pre-market trading.

You can get more information on the Harmonic Stock Clock here. www.doctrader.com
Good luck,
God Bless
Doc

Ps. Check my blog out, I have posted market snap shot pictures there.

Market Built By Fear,

2005-10-20T02:45:00.000-04:00

Market Built By Fear,
not from falling prices, but from missing the next rally.

After Roflma with the cheerleaders comments, I had to look up the facts to help you balance the “new bull market” froth. If you are a trader, then have go with the signal lines, if you are “buy, hold, and hopeful,” the you love the pep rally every night on cnbc’s “Mad Money”. It’s funny, you need some humor at the end of the day of trading, I get my “captain and coke and watch the show. I thought about taking the show seriously, but you know, you just never get a “sell” on some stock picks., like.. EL, GP, PG, EPL, NFX, these were the picks 22 days ago. Just for giggles and grins, you should track all the “perma bull cheerleaders stock picks. Maybe it’s bad “karma”, as soon as a stock is recommended, people sell the stock. Or I could be more cynical… Oh well,.. Another note about a 1 day market move. The executioner’s line is still above most stocks, hanging over their heads until prices get close enough for the chopping block. I am talking about the 50 day moving average line, something that all money managers use to justify their holdings. The dirty little secret is that when the 50 day moving averages drop below the 200 day moving averages, the money managers fiduciary responsibility is to liquidate some or all his stock position.. Believe me when I say, the money managers are too lazy to go through the hassle, that is why we have been in a trading range. The other little dirty secret is that of program trading, if the market averages are controlled not hit the “trading curbs”, they can continue to churn their portfolios over until the next quarterly report.
Interesting... note.. when the bull market began in 10-‘82 to 10-‘85, market gains were up 35%. However, that was at the beginning of a new bull market, not like this secular bear market. The rates of return in 10-‘84 to 10-‘87 were up 83%, then just 1 day after the 10-19-‘87 crash, the Dow Index was up only 42%. There are so many hedge funds and program trading that makes this market very easy to manufacture a market rally by using the futures market leverage. You see, the Fed has protected the big hedge funds, just as they have done before in 1996,1997, 1998. The fed allowed the stock market bubble to inflate, fearing inflation, when had deflation in 1999 an 2000. and they have always been behind the curve when fighting inflation. In 1987, I was investing other people’s money in safe mutual funds for their IRA's, there were around 3,000 mutual funds then. Compare that to with over 30,000 mutual funds and variable annuity accounts by insurance companies. In 1990, there was $39 billion in hedge funds, now there are $972 Billion. All these markets are inter-connected with foreign financial markets, it will take just a push on the button to “sell“ as it is to push the button to “buy“. Hey, do you remember when they told you that a lowly employee at a hedge fund, pushed the sell button for 15,000 sp500 contracts? Caused the market to drop around the world. If you can find a source for that story, will give you a free “Harmonic Clock Stock Book“ . Just send me an email to Doctrader@nospamyahoo.com

Since 10-18-2002, the cyclical short term bull market rally, the Dow Index is only up 24%. So I have to concluded that this market is not a "new long term secular bull market, but just a fading bull market in the last gasp for higher ground. These hedge funds also owe an debt of gratitude for all that the Alcazar Greenspan has done for them, so they don’t want him to retire with another tulip bulb bubble collapse under his reign.

With all that said, I did go short this morning after the first red zone time, but after the oil inventory report, the "feds plunge protection team" started a systematic buying binge to squeezed all the "short out of the market above the harmonic green signal line. By the time the second red zone time, I was out of the shorts, the market was being supported by the red signal lines. By the time the master harmonic pivot time had arrived, price had moved too fast according to the harmonic heartbeat, so it was a good time to go short again, after I had two down candles. By 11;15, was out of the short and out till after 1 pm. After lunch, looked at the advance decline line, declining issues dropped from 2300 down to below 2000. That's a good indicator to watch, when there is a programmed turn around, this indicator will suddenly reverse directions starting at 1 pm, till the end of the day. This market is built on fear, not from falling prices, but from missing the next rally. They did, went long the rest of the day after the first harmonic time after 1 pm. If you look at the market on a 2 min chart, or higher timed framed charts, the index never touched the red signal line for the rest of the day! The velocity and tci indicator never dropped below the zero line either.

Usually when the market trades up through the green signal line on a daily chart, the market registers a triple digit gains. One thing that concern’s me about today's trading, is that some hedge funds are using my harmonic stock clock signal lines. They have programmed the signals into their computers, how can I tell? The big trades that come through the market during my harmonic clock times zones. The program trading starts the buying frenzy off in low volume time zones and the program traders are taking profits when prices exceed the harmonic heartbeat. That is good for you the small investors and for the swing and long traders. The more the harmonic stock clock system is used, the truer the signals are for everyone. The danger of program trading is that all these computer’s are competing against each other and the long term investors may be caught off guard with losses like what happened in 1987. If there is follow through for today, the market is slightly overbought, based on my Harmonic Heartbeat indicator. For Tele chart Gold users, the T2107 indicator and T2118 are still trending downward below all three signal lines. Good luck trading.

Past yearly performance of the Dow index during the month of October as measured from October the prior year.

10-19-04 to 10-19-05 4.3%

10-20-03 to 10-19-04 1,2%

10-18-02 to 10-17-03 16.8%

10-19-01 to 10-18-02 -9.5%

10-19-00 to 10-19-01 -9.3%

10-19-99 to 10-19-00 -.6%

10-19-98 to 10-19-99 20.%

Value of the Dow Index during the 18 year secular bear market
as measured on or near October 19th.
66---785
67---903
68---967
69---839
70---756
71---868
72---932
73---963
74---655
75---842
76---950
77---812
78---846
79---815
80---961
81---847
82---1014
83---1247
84---1226

For those interested in buying the Harmonic Stock Clock book, the alternate website is still running.
Doc

Harmonic Stock Clock extends Sale Price

2005-10-13T02:37:00.000-04:00

Harmonic Stock Clock extends Sale Price

Due to the massive number of book orders, I have decided to extend the final sale days until this weekend. I have been trading during the day watching if the news with amusement of the cheerleaders' faces as they report another down day in the market. The hedge fund managers are keeping the market sell off orderly and controlled. I expect that on Thursday, they will find some "good news" to make the market climb higher, by a simple "short covering" rally. The hedge fund managers can't have a sell off on Thursday, that will lead to margin calls, something they don't want to see happen. Browsing through my emails today I am hearing a common theme among the new letters. Here is the common theme: Toby Smith, changewave.com want investors to buy. (TobySmith@ChangeWave.com
Doug Fabian wants investors to raise cash. http://www.dougfabian.com
Richard Shaeferrer wants you to read "extraordinary Delusions and the madness of Crowds". http://www.schaeffersresearch.com
Louis Navellier wants you go think global markets not the u.s. markets.
Krammer on Mad Money, said to go to Japanese stock market for superior growth over the U.S. markets.

News Max Headlines “GM in Grave Danger: Delphi Chief The CEO of newly bankrupt Delphi Corp., Steve Miller, insists that General Motors Delphi's biggest customer - will be forced into bankruptcy unless the auto giant can get the United Auto Workers union to make considerable wage and benefit concessions, according to Bloomberg.

SectorTrade Subscribers Up 41.2%
In One Week If you have been following our commentary recently, you'll know that here at Money News and Financial Intelligence Report, we'd been bouncing around the idea that perhaps the price of crude had gotten ahead of itself. (Sidebar: Oil sector has been down on profit taking.)

Homeowners Dump ARMs for Fixed Rates
In the past, when you wanted a new home loan - or extra cash in the form of a refinance deal - you could play around with variable interest rates, secure in the knowledge that interest rates wouldn't be rising anytime soon. But that was about 11 interest rate hikes ago. (Sidebar: Congress is considering eliminating capital gains on home sellers)

Tax Pitfalls Hurt Second-Home Buyers:
Second-home purchases, with the heavy tax ramifications that accompany them, are the latest real estate sector experiencing a hangover. (Sidebar: 13% of the homes sold last year were for second homes. In California, one of the highest growth in real estate prices, a restriction of capital gains will crush the home market. The lending institutions would also falter, processing fewer loans.)

Analysts Bullish on Market
Analysts say that even though the stock market has been pummeled by natural disasters and unnatural energy prices, expectations remain bullish for the markets this week. (Sidebar: Too many analysts were bullish in 2000 also.)
$1 MILLION MORTGAGE DEDUCTIONS A THING OF THE PAST?
A recent article in the LA Times suggested that tax reformers were also foaming at the mouths to get their hands on $2.7 billion in tax revenue that would arise out of cutting the mortgage deduction ceiling from $1 million down to $500K as well as all mortgage deductions on second homes. This is an important development as many homeowners have entered into the market, especially in California, with big mortgages upwards of a million.”

Looking at the McClellan Summation Index,(telechart T2118) it is heading for the lows back in May 2005, along with the stock prices. Also the number of stocks trading above their 200 day moving averages (telechart T2107) to 43% from the high of 82% in Feb 2005.

What will these signals mean? Time will soon tell, if there is no bounce this week, the hedge funds may begin a capitulation sell off.

The stock market's horoscope says:
“Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it is -- especially with money. This isn't the right week to take financial chances, no matter how confident your advisors are. Your own instincts will tell you to hold back, anyway. Listen up. When was the last time they steered you wrong?”

How True. So I will be offering the Harmonic Stock Clock Book for the same price till this weekend. http://www.doctrader.com/harmonicclockbook.htm
I wish all the investors and traders good luck for the rest of the month.

God Bless
Doc
www.doctrader.com