While there is no definitive answer, I’d like to present some empirical evidence that argues this:

Spring Training success or lack thereof is a generally a good predictor of regular season success.

With that said, there are a number of exceptions to the above-stated rule. Without further ado, let’s go through the evidence with the help of 2007, 2008, and 2009 spring training and regular season wins-loss records:

2007

1. The Dodgers went 17-16 in Spring Training (will be referred to as “ST” going forward) and 82-80 in the regular season. In each “season”, the team was very mediocre.
2. The eight playoff teams went a collective 125-108 (.536 winning percentage) in ST. Seven of the eight playoff teams went .500 or more in ST with the Phillies as the only exception (11-18).
3. The ten worst teams of 2007 went 134-163 (.451 winning percentage) in ST. Seven of the worst ten teams lost more games than they won in ST.
4. The eventual World Series Champions, the Boston Red Sox, went 15-12 in ST.
5. The eventually NL Champions, the Colorado Rockies, went 13-12 in ST.

2008

1. The Dodgers finished a miserable 11-18 in ST, but went a respectable 84-78 during the regular season.
2. The eight playoff teams went a collective 112-112 (.500 winning percentage) in ST. Only three of the eight playoff teams had a record over .500 in ST. The White Sox were one team that stunk in ST, but went on to make the playoffs. The Phillies and Dodgers, who ultimately squared off in the 2008 NLCS, both had miserable records in ST, as well.
3. The ten worst teams of 2008 went 130-161 (.447 winning percentage) in ST. Six of the ten worst teams finished below .500 in ST, but it’s also true that each of the six worst teams finished below .500 in ST. Of the poor teams, the Giants and Orioles were notably bad in ST at 9-23 and 10-17, respectively.
4. The eventual World Series Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies, went 12-18 in ST.
5. The eventual AL Champions, the Tampa Bay Rays, clocked in at a strong 18-8 in ST.

2009

1. The Dodgers had a poor ST performance, winning 15 games, while losing 22. During the regular season, as I’m sure you all know, the Dodgers had the best record in the NL (95-67).
2. The eight playoff teams finished with a collective ST record of 153-115 ( .571 winning percentage), but two teams, the Yankees and Angels inflated this winning percentage. The Yankees were 24-10, whereas the Angels were a supernatural 26-8. Still, six of the eight playoff teams were .500 or better in ST. The two playoff teams that failed to reach .500 in ST were the Phillies and Dodgers. These teams went on to face off in the NLCS, so I guess their poor STs didn’t matter much.
3. 2009’s worst eleven teams finished a collective 156-201 (.437) in ST. Eight of these eleven teams finished under .500 in ST. The three exceptions were the Mets, Royals, and Pirates.
4. The eventual World Series Champions, the New York Yankees, went 24-10 in ST, as previously mentioned.
5. The eventual NL Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies, only won 13 of their 32 ST games. Their ST struggles didn’t prove to matter much as they emerged as the last NL team standing in 2009.

If you’re a Lakers’ supporter, you obviously believe your team can win another Championship this season, but they haven’t been playing too well lately either.

The Clippers just fired their general manager, Mike Dunleavy Sr. (that link will lead you to his NBA player son) and promoted Neil Olshey, who has no experience as a GM, to be speak of. The Clips have lots of cap room to play with next off-season, but may be too naive to realize that their chances of landing a big-name free agent are dwindling quickly with such dumb moves by ownership. I won’t go too deep into this discussion, but my main point is that the Clippers have frustrated me beyond belief. As baseball season gears up, this should bring a nice change of pace.

The Lakers will clearly be in the thick of things come May and June, but right now they’ve lost 3 of their last 4. In fact, they would have a 4-game losing streak if Kobe Bryant didn’t make a clutch shot to beat the Raptors.

If either of these Los Angeles teams are frustrating you, take a brief break. I’m not saying you should venture to Arizona, but feel free to daydream about the baseball season. Even with starting pitching deficiencies and Russell Martin’s early injury, with spring baseball, there is always hope. There’s especially hope when you follow a team that’s made their league’s championship series for two years running.

Granted, the Dodgers have not been to a World Series since 1988, but we should consider ourselves lucky to follow a team that competes year in and year out. The poor Pirates have not had a winning season since 1992 when Barry Bonds left Pittsburgh. By comparison, the Dodgers have performed at .500 or better in 15 of the last 17 years.

Four times since 1995, our beloved Blue didn’t even make it out of the first round, but at least we’re getting to watch post-season play. Also, there’s an obvious sign of progress as the team has made the NLCS in each of the last two years. The young players have matured and are ready to do some major damage. The future is bright. This season is even brighter.

Stay blue, my brothers and sisters!

*Speaking of a former Pirate, Brian Giles will wisely call it a career, because his arthritic knee would just not cooperate. He’ll retire at the age of 39, after 15 Major League seasons. He had great seasons in Pittsburgh and found mild success in San Diego. This now leaves GA and Dougie M to compete for the left-handed pinch hitting role that may or may not be available this season. Stay tuned.

Martin came into camp with over twenty additional pounds of muscle in the hopes of increasing his power, an area of his game that wasn’t at its strongest in 2009.

According to team sources, Martin felt discomfort running days before the team’s first spring game on Friday. The groin pull was misjudged as a normal ache and pain that comes in the spring after not running as much in the off-season. On Friday, after playing five innings, Martin knew something was wrong.

In Martin’s absence, A.J. Ellis and Brad Ausmus will see increased playing time. The starter will be A.J. Ellis, who will turn 29 in less than a month. Ellis has only caught 37.2 innings in his entire career. On the offensive side, he’s only come up to the plate a total of 13 times. He has one hit in 13 career at bats.

In my mind, A.J. Ellis’ hitting is not much of a concern. The Dodgers are a very deep and talented offensive team. I could see A.J. Ellis batting eighth for a very solid hitting team without much of a problem at all. Russell Martin didn’t do much offensively last year, anyway.

The problem is how A.J. Ellis will handle pitchers. Russell Martin is one of the best defensive catchers. In fact, he won a Gold Glove in 2007. While Martin is, admittedly, not the best at throwing out base-stealers, he is very effective at calling pitches, dealing with pitchers (e. g. calming down pitchers), and blocking pitches in the dirt. He’s also very accomplished at blocking home plate on a “bang-bang play.”

A.J. Ellis is nearly 29, but in MLB service, he’ll be like a 21 year-old starting at catcher. The lack of experience is definitely something to be concerned about, but let’s delve a little bit deeper. Russell Martin’s injury comes at a pretty good time, considering we’re still in early March. Martin figures not to miss too much time. If Ellis can do a decent job with the pitchers, the Dodgers probably won’t be hurt too badly by the Martin injury.

What are your thoughts on what Martin’s injury means for the team?

Garret Anderson, who years ago was expected to be a lifelong Angel, is being courted by the Dodgers, as the LA Times is reporting.

GA played 15 seasons with the Angels before spending the 2009 season as a part the Atlanta Braves’ organization. At the age of 37, the Dodgers are looking to bring Garret on as the team’s 4th outfielder in place of Juan Pierre.

From 2000 to 2003, Anderson drove in 116 or more runs each and every season. He obviously doesn’t have the power he once had, but the Dodgers won’t mind. If the Dodgers can work things out with agent Scott Boras, the team would be thrilled to add a player of GA’s caliber. As the 4th outfielder, he’d mainly play in order to give Manny’s old bones an occasional rest. GA would also fill in for Ethier or Kemp, but very very rarely.

The good news for the Dodgers is that Boras won’t be likely to ask for too much money. Wait! Has that sentence ever been uttered in the history of Scott Boras’ career as an agent? Probably not, but it’s true in this case. He’ll probably be happy to get somewhere in the range of 1.5-2 million for his client. Last year, GA’s salary was $2.5 million. He was decently productive for the Braves, but didn’t do anything special to warrant more money. In fact, his SLG% did drop to a career low  at .401 (besides in 1994 when he only played in 5 games). Now, he’s a year older.

The Dodgers don’t mind that he’s lost that power. He’s still a pretty good outfielder, would be a solid pinch hitter, and could be placed 6th or 7th in a solid batting lineup.

Beware though! The Angels have also been rumored to be in the mix for Garret’s services.

What’s quoted above is what I wrote on January 30th, a little over a month ago here. Well, now the Dodgers don’t have to worry about the Angels stealing their guy. The Dodgers have got their man.

The Dodgers signed GA to a minor league deal Friday. It is widely believed that one of the following left-banded bats will make the Dodgers’ 25-man roster, come Opening Day: Garret Anderson, Brian Giles, and let’s just call the final option “Doug M” so this article doesn’t span 53 pages. We all know his name is ridiculously long with lots of unnecessary letters.

I don’t see why that wouldn’t be the case. The Dodgers need a left-handed hitter off the bench. It’s also believed that the Dodgers may go with five outfielders as opposed to four. If they do, Torre would have to live with eleven pitchers, not the twelve that he had envisioned.

Personally, I’m torn with regard to the number of outfielders the Dodgers should start with on the Big League club. I have a sneaking suspicion that Reed Johnson will be very good off the bench if he gets the chance. I’d like to see Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson in the Majors, to back up Andre, Matt, and Manny, but that would come with one major problem. With only eleven pitchers, the Dodgers might be too thin in the bullpen. Last season too many guys, including but not limited to Broxton, Belisario, and Troncoso, threw more innings than they should have. I would really hate to see any of Dodger relievers burn out their arms. For now, I’ll say that the Dodgers should go with only four outfielders, but if Reed Johnson and GA are hitting out of their minds in Spring Training, then I would likely change my opinion on the issue.

The above reaction is a very common one. Many baseball fans, especially those who plan on fielding a fantasy baseball team in 2010, should acquaint themselves with Joey Votto, a very talented first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds.

Votto is only 26 years old as he prepares to play his fourth Major League season. In 2007, Votto recorded 17 RBIs in just 24 games. Because he didn’t get much at bats in 2007, Votto was still considered a rookie in ‘08.  In 2008, Votto nearly won National League Rookie of the Year honors. In fact, he just fell short, finishing second to Cubs’ catcher, Geovany Soto.

Soto went on to have a very disappointing season, following his Rookie of the Year award-winning season. Votto, on the other hand, improved upon virtually all of his numbers.

In 2009, among batters who qualified with 502 plate appearances, Joey Votto finished third in the National League OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) rankings with an OPS of .981. The only better National Leaguers, in that department, were Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder (both way better known players). Even more remarkable, Votto finished third in slugging percentage, while only slugging 25 home runs. That’s a decent amount of home runs, but not as many one would guess, given his .567 slugging percentage. By comparison, Pujols and Fielder hit 47 and 46 home runs, respectively. Part of this can be explained by the fact that Votto only played in 131 games last season.

Votto missed 21 games due to depression and anxiety related to his father’s untimely death. He also missed games due to an ear infection. In light of these problems, Votto was able to persevere. Still, he wasn’t completely right, as he’s said, at all last season. There have been no reported setbacks in his psychological state, and he claims to be feeling much better emotionally. As far as fantasy baseball goes, Votto’s concentration on defensive improvements is not important, but it should help the Reds in 2010. We’ll see if Votto’s off-season defensive work will prove to be successful in the coming season.

Another reason why Votto finished with such a slugging percentage is his ability to double regularly. He finished with three more doubles than Prince Fielder despite having 175 less plate appearances. There’s no doubt that Votto would have slugged at least 28 HRs and 42 doubles if he had played 150 games rather than 131.

We’ve discussed wOBA before. Also known as weighted On-Base Average, wOBA, is a good indicator of offensive output and importance to ones team (offensively speaking). It is far less biased than batting average and is, as I’ve covered here, a more accurate statistic than OPS. Going with our previous criteria that considers .340 about the average when it comes to wOBA and .400 to be great, let’s see how Votto fared in 2009:

wOBA= (.72BB+.75HBP+.90Singles+.92RBOE+1.24Doubles+1.56Triples+1.95HRs) divided by # of Plate Appearances

Votto’s woBA= 235.7/544=.433

Well, according to the criteria, Votto was “great” in 2009. That’s not too surprising, considering his .981 OPS. Still, before I call Votto a great player, he’ll have put up these amazing numbers for an entire season. With that said, I expect him to. Now that Joey Votto is healthy and ready to go, I see no reason why the promising 26-year old won’t improve on his numbers once again.

If you’re playing fantasy baseball, Joey Votto is a sleeper that fellow owners may not know about. If I were you, I’d keep the secret and then select Votto in a later round than his 2009 stats would warrant. Again, he’s a guy who not too many people know much about. At the same time, I would strongly advise against waiting too long to snatch him up. Some other savvy owner may know what you know.

Beware…don’t “reach” for Votto either. He’s only had 2 solid Major League seasons. More proven players are always less risky, but (and I can’t stress this enough) Joey Votto is more likely to hang much, much longer than household names, such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, or Ryan Howard.

In closing, have fun with your fantasy team if you choose to go that route. If not, just enjoy the season and keep an eye on Joey Votto. I’m telling you…he’s going to be something special. In fact, he kind of already is!

*Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres is another fantasy sleeper at first base, but even he is better known than Joey Votto.

Upton is a consensus 5-tool player, who is only 22 years old. The right fielder reminds me a lot of Matt Kemp. He also has the same problem as Kemp: both guys strike out too much.

Last season, Upton led the D-Backs in hits. In fact, 63 of his 158 hits went for extra bases. That helps to explain his stellar slugging percentage of .532, which was better than Adam Dunn, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and a host of others. Justin Upton placed 13th in the NL in slugging percentage among those that qualified with 450 plate appearances.

Upton was also in the NL’s top 20 in OPS, finishing 17th. Upton’s .899 OPS was great for a player who was only 21 years old much of the season. If he can improve his OPS to .925 and top 10 in the National League, you can bet the Diamondbacks will be thrilled.

Justin Upton only drew 55 walks last season, but that number should go up as Arizona figures to produce more runs this year. Besides Upton and Mark Reynolds, no one really hit last season.

As the first overall pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft, expectations are through the roof for this Upton. By the way, his brother B.J. still plays for the Rays and actually hit for the cycle near the end of last season.

• Broxton finished sixth in the NL with 36 saves.
• Of these 9 guys, Broxton’s opposing batting average (.165) was clearly the best. Trevor Hoffman was next best at a clip of .183 for the Brewers.
• Trevor Hoffman (Mil) and Huston Street (Col) were the only 2 to beat out Brox in WHIP, but each of the three finished with a WHIP of under 1.
• Broxton pitched the most innings of any NL full-time closer. He logged 76 innings.
• The Ox was the only pitcher (of the 9) to strike out over 100 batters. With 114 K’s, he struck out 1.5 batters per inning. That’s amazing. That also comes out to 13.5 K/9.
• At the same time, he struck out 3.93 times as many batters as he walked. Only the Rockies’ closer, Huston Street, had a better K:BB ratio. Street struck out 70 and only walked 13 (5.38 K/BB).
• Huston Street was phenomenal for the Rockies, but he had to be sidelined with biceps tendinitis (for a crucial stretch during the latter part of 2009), because he was overused by Jim Tracy. Joe Torre should keep this is mind with Broxton though JB is probably a lot more durable than Huston Street.
• The only member of the top 9 (in 2009) NL save club, who absolutely stunk was Brad Lidge. He was able to notch 31 saves simply because of his team’s talent. With an Opp BA of .301, a WHIP of 1.81, and an ERA upwards of 7, you can bet that Charlie Manuel will be prepared to explore other options in that closing role if Lidge can’t right the ship.
• Broxton converted a reliable 36 of 42 save opportunities (85.7% of the time). The only problem is that many people will remember Broxton’s blown save in Game 4 of last year’s NLCS. The blown save resulted in a loss that would extend the Phillies’ lead to 3-1 in the series. Among way other (way more important) reasons, the Dodgers will aim to get back to the NLCS in order to give their closer a shot at redemption.

Don’t get me wrong, here. I’m very hopeful with regard to Clayton Kershaw’s career. It’s just that he’s only 21 years old (he’ll be 22 in less than a month), and it’s awfully early to be branding the guy the next coming of a legendary Hall of Famer.

Before having to retire at the age of 31 due to an arthritic condition, Koufax won four World Series rings (twice, he was the WS MVP), three Cy Youngs, the 1963 NL MVP (he finished 2nd in NL MVP voting in each of his last 2 seasons), and notched six all-star selections. If that wasn’t enough, Koufax even threw a perfect game on a historic, yet wacky night (there was only 1 combined hit in the game) in Los Angeles. The legendary left-hander also led the league in K’s on four separate occasions.

Now that we’ve established the prematurity of such a branding, not to mention the added pressure it would put on the kid, let’s look at Kershaw’s 2009 performance, and the implications, for him, going forward. First, I’d like to link an informative piece written by Ray Flowers of Baseball Guys. Flowers writes from a fantasy baseball perspective, so some of his angles may not be applicable, but the vast majority of the piece is very relevant to Kershaw’s future prospects. Here it is: Flowers’ Kershaw Piece.

In the article, Flowers makes a number of arguments, which he bolsters with strong statistical evidence. To sum up his points, Kershaw:

• was barely unhittable following a “shaky April” (lefties did the worst, but righties were not immune)
• K’d the living daylight out of the league (finished 7th in K/9 among all qualifying pitchers)
• was very inefficient with his pitches, which helps to explain why he didn’t go too deep in many of his starts
• walked way too many batters (averaged 4.79 walks per nine innings)
• was lucky to surrender such few home runs, given his below average ground ball: fly ball ratio

These are all great points, but I honestly believe that Kershaw’s G:F ratio should not be a major concern. Given his live fastball and phenomenal strike out rate, I think a below average rate is to be expected. Even with Kershaw’s nasty curveball, hitters either whiff on it or get under the ball and pop it up.  While I agree that Kershaw could very well give up more than last year’s total of 7 home runs, I’m not worried about that at all.

What I am worried about, however, are Kershaw’s dual problems of walks and pitch count inefficiency. These two problems go hand-in-hand and are almost like the chicken and egg story. Walks lead to problems with pitch count inefficiency and vice-versa, as a tired pitcher is more likely to walk batters. Like Ray mentioned, Clayton Kershaw was virtually unhittable in 2009. Batters hit .199 against him before the all-star break and .200 thereafter. The problem was that he was walking batters at an alarming rate. Even in the at-bats, which did not result in walks, Kershaw was inefficient. Ray cites an interesting stat in the article: Kershaw averaged the most pitches per plate appearance (4.32) and second most pitches per innings (17.7)  in the league. Of course, if Kershaw were less of a strike-out pitcher, these stats wouldn’t look as bad, but still, the aforementioned statistics should be cause for genuine concern.

Before I let you ponder the 21 year-old pitching enigma that is Clayton Kershaw, I’ll leave you with my 2010 CK predictions: Kershaw will win 15 games (only won 8 last season) and post an ERA of around 3.07 (2.79 was his 2009 ERA). He will give up more home runs than he did a season ago, but walk less batters. The strike outs should be slightly increased from 185 to around 200. Finally, Kershaw won’t figure to be as inefficient as he was in 2009, but he’ll still be pretty inefficient, if we remain mindful of the nature of his pitching style. Although he obviously hopes to improve his control, a good deal of Kershaw’s inaccuracy is purposeful in order to confuse the batter. So many of his strike outs come from batters chasing that 12-6 curveball that  seems to drop from the sky to the dirt.

That’s it. I could talk about this promising pitcher for the rest of my life, but I’ll cut myself off now.