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	<title>Dodger Blue Blog</title>
	
	<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com</link>
	<description>Just another Fanball Blogs weblog</description>
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		<title>Not the Groin!</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/07/not-the-groin/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/07/not-the-groin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Mar 2010 02:08:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Dodgers Recap and Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[20+ lbs of muscle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AJ Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brad Ausmus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Glove]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[groin pull]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inexperience]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mRI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[only 13 ABs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pitchers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[under 38 innings caught]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1174</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Russell Martin will likely miss opening day with a pulled groin. The current diagnosis is that the Dodgers&#8217; starting catcher will be out for four to six weeks, but only time will tell how long he&#8217;s actually sidelined.
Martin came into camp with over twenty additional pounds of muscle in the hopes of increasing his power, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Russell Martin will likely miss opening day with a pulled groin. The current diagnosis is that the Dodgers&#8217; starting catcher will be out for four to six weeks, but only time will tell how long he&#8217;s actually sidelined.</p>
<p>Martin came into camp with over twenty additional pounds of muscle in the hopes of increasing his power, an area of his game that wasn&#8217;t at its strongest in 2009.</p>
<p>According to team sources, Martin felt discomfort running days before the team&#8217;s first spring game on Friday. The groin pull was misjudged as a normal ache and pain that comes in the spring after not running as much in the off-season. On Friday, after playing five innings, Martin knew something was wrong.</p>
<p>In Martin&#8217;s absence, A.J. Ellis and Brad Ausmus will see increased playing time. The starter will be A.J. Ellis, who will turn 29 in less than a month. Ellis has only caught 37.2 innings in his entire career. On the offensive side, he&#8217;s only come up to the plate a total of 13 times. He has one hit in 13 career at bats.</p>
<p>In my mind, A.J. Ellis&#8217; hitting is not much of a concern. The Dodgers are a very deep and talented offensive team. I could see A.J. Ellis batting eighth for a very solid hitting team without much of a problem at all. Russell Martin didn&#8217;t do much offensively last year, anyway.</p>
<p>The problem is how A.J. Ellis will handle pitchers. Russell Martin is one of the best defensive catchers. In fact, he won a Gold Glove in 2007. While Martin is, admittedly, not the best at throwing out base-stealers, he is very effective at calling pitches, dealing with pitchers (e. g. calming down pitchers), and blocking pitches in the dirt. He&#8217;s also very accomplished at blocking home plate on a &#8220;bang-bang play.&#8221;</p>
<p>A.J. Ellis is nearly 29, but in MLB service, he&#8217;ll be like a 21 year-old starting at catcher. The lack of experience is definitely something to be concerned about, but let&#8217;s delve a little bit deeper. Russell Martin&#8217;s injury comes at a pretty good time, considering we&#8217;re still in early March. Martin figures not to miss too much time. If Ellis can do a decent job with the pitchers, the Dodgers probably won&#8217;t be hurt too badly by the Martin injury.</p>
<p>What are your thoughts on what Martin&#8217;s injury means for the team?</p>
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		<title>Welcome Back to Southern California, GA!</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/06/welcome-back-to-southern-california-ga/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/06/welcome-back-to-southern-california-ga/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Mar 2010 06:39:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dodgers Recap and Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predicitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[11 or 12 pitchers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[4 outfielders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[5 OF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Braves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Giles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug M]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fatigue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Torre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reed Johson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Garret Anderson, who years ago was expected to be a lifelong Angel, is being courted by the Dodgers, as the LA Times is reporting.
GA played 15 seasons with the Angels before spending the 2009 season as a part the Atlanta Braves’ organization. At the age of 37, the Dodgers are looking to bring Garret on [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><a title="Garret Anderson" href="http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/player/386" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/www.rototimes.com');">Garret Anderson</a>, who years ago was expected to be a lifelong Angel, is being courted by the Dodgers, as the LA Times is reporting.</p>
<p>GA played 15 seasons with the Angels before spending the 2009 season as a part the Atlanta Braves’ organization. At the age of 37, the Dodgers are looking to bring Garret on as the team’s 4th outfielder in place of <a title="Juan Pierre" href="http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/player/3824" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/www.rototimes.com');">Juan Pierre</a>.</p>
<p>From 2000 to 2003, Anderson drove in 116 or more runs each and every season. He obviously doesn’t have the power he once had, but the Dodgers won’t mind. If the Dodgers can work things out with agent Scott Boras, the team would be thrilled to add a player of GA’s caliber. As the 4th outfielder, he’d mainly play in order to give Manny’s old bones an occasional rest. GA would also fill in for Ethier or Kemp, but very very rarely.</p>
<p>The good news for the Dodgers is that Boras won’t be likely to ask for too much money. Wait! Has that sentence ever been uttered in the history of Scott Boras’ career as an agent? Probably not, but it’s true in this case. He’ll probably be happy to get somewhere in the range of 1.5-2 million for his client. Last year, GA’s salary was $2.5 million. He was decently productive for the Braves, but didn’t do anything special to warrant more money. In fact, his SLG% did drop to a career low  at .401 (besides in 1994 when he only played in 5 games). Now, he’s a year older.</p>
<p>The Dodgers don’t mind that he’s lost that power. He’s still a pretty good outfielder, would be a solid pinch hitter, and could be placed 6th or 7th in a solid batting lineup.</p>
<p>Beware though! The Angels have also been rumored to be in the mix for Garret’s services.</p></blockquote>
<p>What&#8217;s quoted above is what I wrote on January 30th, a little over a month ago <a href="http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/01/30/dodgers-courting-hometown-product/" >here</a>. Well, now the Dodgers don&#8217;t have to worry about the Angels stealing their guy. The Dodgers have got their man.</p>
<p>The Dodgers signed GA to a minor league deal Friday. It is widely believed that one of the following left-banded bats will make the Dodgers&#8217; 25-man roster, come Opening Day: Garret Anderson, Brian Giles, and let&#8217;s just call the final option &#8220;Doug M&#8221; so this article doesn&#8217;t span 53 pages. We all know his name is ridiculously long with lots of unnecessary letters.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t see why that wouldn&#8217;t be the case. The Dodgers need a left-handed hitter off the bench. It&#8217;s also believed that the Dodgers may go with five outfielders as opposed to four. If they do, Torre would have to live with eleven pitchers, not the twelve that he had envisioned.</p>
<p>Personally, I&#8217;m torn with regard to the number of outfielders the Dodgers should start with on the Big League club. I have a sneaking suspicion that Reed Johnson will be very good off the bench if he gets the chance. I&#8217;d like to see Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson in the Majors, to back up Andre, Matt, and Manny, but that would come with one major problem. With only eleven pitchers, the Dodgers might be too thin in the bullpen. Last season too many guys, including but not limited to Broxton, Belisario, and Troncoso, threw more innings than they should have. I would really hate to see any of Dodger relievers burn out their arms. For now, I&#8217;ll say that the Dodgers should go with only four outfielders, but if Reed Johnson and GA are hitting out of their minds in Spring Training, then I would likely change my opinion on the issue.</p>
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		<title>Does Joey Votto Ring a Bell?</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/03/does-joey-votto-ring-a-bell/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/03/does-joey-votto-ring-a-bell/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:02:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albert Pujols]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[first basemen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[great]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joey Votto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OPS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prince Fielder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ring a bell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sleeper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[who?]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wOBA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;That&#8217;s not ringing a bell. Who is this Joey Votto guy?&#8221;
The above reaction is a very common one. Many baseball fans, especially those who plan on fielding a fantasy baseball team in 2010, should acquaint themselves with Joey Votto, a very talented first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds.
Votto is only 26 years old as he [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s not ringing a bell. Who is this Joey Votto guy?&#8221;</p>
<p>The above reaction is a very common one. Many baseball fans, especially those who plan on fielding a fantasy baseball team in 2010, should acquaint themselves with Joey Votto, a very talented first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds.</p>
<p>Votto is only 26 years old as he prepares to play his fourth Major League season. In 2007, Votto recorded 17 RBIs in just 24 games. Because he didn&#8217;t get much at bats in 2007, Votto was still considered a rookie in &#8216;08.  In 2008, Votto nearly won National League Rookie of the Year honors. In fact, he just fell short, finishing second to Cubs&#8217; catcher, Geovany Soto.</p>
<p>Soto went on to have a very disappointing season, following his Rookie of the Year award-winning season. Votto, on the other hand, improved upon virtually all of his numbers.</p>
<p>In 2009, among batters who qualified with 502 plate appearances, Joey Votto finished third in the National League OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) rankings with an OPS of .981. The only better National Leaguers, in that department, were Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder (both way better known players). Even more remarkable, Votto finished third in slugging percentage, while only slugging 25 home runs. That&#8217;s a decent amount of home runs, but not as many one would guess, given his .567 slugging percentage. By comparison, Pujols and Fielder hit 47 and 46 home runs, respectively. Part of this can be explained by the fact that Votto only played in 131 games last season.</p>
<p>Votto missed 21 games due to depression and anxiety related to his father&#8217;s untimely death. He also missed games due to an ear infection. In light of these problems, Votto was able to persevere. Still, he wasn&#8217;t completely right, as he&#8217;s said, at all last season. There have been no reported setbacks in his psychological state, and he claims to be feeling much better emotionally. As far as fantasy baseball goes, Votto&#8217;s concentration on defensive improvements is not important, but it should help the Reds in 2010. We&#8217;ll see if Votto&#8217;s off-season defensive work will prove to be successful in the coming season.</p>
<p>Another reason why Votto finished with such a slugging percentage is his ability to double regularly. He finished with three more doubles than Prince Fielder despite having 175 less plate appearances. There&#8217;s no doubt that Votto would have slugged at least 28 HRs and 42 doubles if he had played 150 games rather than 131.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve discussed wOBA before. Also known as weighted On-Base Average, wOBA, is a good indicator of offensive output and importance to ones team (offensively speaking). It is far less biased than batting average and is, as I&#8217;ve covered <a href="http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/15/new-season-new-stats-woba/" >here</a>, a more accurate statistic than OPS. Going with our previous criteria that considers .340 about the average when it comes to wOBA and .400 to be great, let&#8217;s see how Votto fared in 2009:</p>
<p>wOBA= (.72BB+.75HBP+.90Singles+.92RBOE+1.24Doubles+1.56Triples+1.95HRs) divided by # of Plate Appearances</p>
<p>Votto&#8217;s woBA= 235.7/544=.433</p>
<p>Well, according to the criteria, Votto was &#8220;great&#8221; in 2009. That&#8217;s not too surprising, considering his .981 OPS. Still, before I call Votto a great player, he&#8217;ll have put up these amazing numbers for an entire season. With that said, I expect him to. Now that Joey Votto is healthy and ready to go, I see no reason why the promising 26-year old won&#8217;t improve on his numbers once again.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re playing fantasy baseball, Joey Votto is a sleeper that fellow owners may not know about. If I were you, I&#8217;d keep the secret and then select Votto in a later round than his 2009 stats would warrant. Again, he&#8217;s a guy who not too many people know much about. At the same time, I would strongly advise against waiting too long to snatch him up. Some other savvy owner may know what you know.</p>
<p>Beware&#8230;don&#8217;t &#8220;reach&#8221; for Votto either. He&#8217;s only had 2 solid Major League seasons. More proven players are always less risky, but (and I can&#8217;t stress this enough) Joey Votto is more likely to hang much, much longer than household names, such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, or Ryan Howard.</p>
<p>In closing, have fun with your fantasy team if you choose to go that route. If not, just enjoy the season and keep an eye on Joey Votto. I&#8217;m telling you&#8230;he&#8217;s going to be something special. In fact, he kind of already is!</p>
<p>*Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres is another fantasy sleeper at first base, but even he is better known than Joey Votto.</p>
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		<title>Justin Upton Gets 6 Years</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/03/justin-upton-gets-6-years/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/03/justin-upton-gets-6-years/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2010 06:59:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Around the NL West]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[5-tool player]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[51 million]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[6 years]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andre Ethier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BJ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[high expectations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OPS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SLG%]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strike outs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Justin Upton has reportedly agreed to six seasons for $51 million with the Diamondbacks. I felt the need to pass this along, given that Upton figures to be a fixture in the NL West for some time now.
Upton is a consensus 5-tool player, who is only 22 years old. The right fielder reminds me a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Justin Upton has reportedly agreed to six seasons for $51 million with the Diamondbacks. I felt the need to pass this along, given that Upton figures to be a fixture in the NL West for some time now.</p>
<p>Upton is a consensus 5-tool player, who is only 22 years old. The right fielder reminds me a lot of Matt Kemp. He also has the same problem as Kemp: both guys strike out too much.</p>
<p>Last season, Upton led the D-Backs in hits. In fact, 63 of his 158 hits went for extra bases. That helps to explain his stellar slugging percentage of .532, which was better than Adam Dunn, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and a host of others. Justin Upton placed 13th in the NL in slugging percentage among those that qualified with 450 plate appearances.</p>
<p>Upton was also in the NL&#8217;s top 20 in OPS, finishing 17th. Upton&#8217;s .899 OPS was great for a player who was only 21 years old much of the season. If he can improve his OPS to .925 and top 10 in the National League, you can bet the Diamondbacks will be thrilled.</p>
<p>Justin Upton only drew 55 walks last season, but that number should go up as Arizona figures to produce more runs this year. Besides Upton and Mark Reynolds, no one really hit last season.</p>
<p>As the first overall pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft, expectations are through the roof for this Upton. By the way, his brother B.J. still plays for the Rays and actually hit for the cycle near the end of last season.</p>
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		<title>Broxton is Dodgers’ Anchor</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/01/broxton-is-dodgers-anchor/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/03/01/broxton-is-dodgers-anchor/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Mar 2010 04:23:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contributors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dodgers' anchor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game 4]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Huston Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Rollins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Broxton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NLCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[starting rotation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Ox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trevor Hoffman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;re all aware that the starting rotation will have to prove itself this season, but the Dodgers&#8217; rock appears to be their closer, Jonathan Broxton. Nicknamed, &#8220;The Ox,&#8221; Baseball Reference lists Broxton at 6&#8242;4- 295 lbs and somehow this doesn&#8217;t surprise me. In fact, Broxton may be pushing 300 pounds. Regardless, he is the most [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;re all aware that the starting rotation will have to prove itself this season, but the Dodgers&#8217; rock appears to be their closer, Jonathan Broxton. Nicknamed, &#8220;The Ox,&#8221; Baseball Reference lists Broxton at 6&#8242;4- 295 lbs and somehow this doesn&#8217;t surprise me. In fact, Broxton may be pushing 300 pounds. Regardless, he is the most reliable pitcher the team has. Let&#8217;s compare Broxton to other top NL closers (the other 8 closers who saved at least 30 games) from 2009:</p>
<ul>
<li>Broxton finished sixth in the NL with 36 saves.</li>
<li>Of these 9 guys, Broxton&#8217;s opposing batting average (.165) was clearly the best. Trevor Hoffman was next best at a clip of .183 for the Brewers.</li>
<li>Trevor Hoffman (Mil) and Huston Street (Col) were the only 2 to beat out Brox in WHIP, but each of the three finished with a WHIP of under 1.</li>
<li>Broxton pitched the most innings of any NL full-time closer. He logged 76 innings.</li>
<li>The Ox was the only pitcher (of the 9) to strike out over 100 batters. With 114 K&#8217;s, he struck out 1.5 batters per inning. That&#8217;s amazing. That also comes out to 13.5 K/9.</li>
<li>At the same time, he struck out 3.93 times as many batters as he walked. Only the Rockies&#8217; closer, Huston Street, had a better K:BB ratio. Street struck out 70 and only walked 13 (5.38 K/BB).</li>
<li>Huston Street was phenomenal for the Rockies, but he had to be sidelined with biceps tendinitis (for a crucial stretch during the latter part of 2009), because he was overused by Jim Tracy. Joe Torre should keep this is mind with Broxton though JB is probably a lot more durable than Huston Street.</li>
<li>The only member of the top 9 (in 2009) NL save club, who absolutely stunk was Brad Lidge. He was able to notch 31 saves simply because of his team&#8217;s talent. With an Opp BA of .301, a WHIP of 1.81, and an ERA upwards of 7, you can bet that Charlie Manuel will be prepared to explore other options in that closing role if Lidge can&#8217;t right the ship.</li>
<li>Broxton converted a reliable 36 of 42 save opportunities (85.7% of the time). The only problem is that many people will remember Broxton&#8217;s blown save in Game 4 of last year&#8217;s NLCS. The blown save resulted in a loss that would extend the Phillies&#8217; lead to 3-1 in the series. Among way other (way more important) reasons, the Dodgers will aim to get back to the NLCS in order to give their closer a shot at redemption.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>2/26 Updates</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/26/226-updates/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/26/226-updates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Feb 2010 02:15:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Dodgers Recap and Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cactus League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don Mattingly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Stults]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Torre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Kemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rihanna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vicente Padilla]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[White Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
As announced earlier this week, Joe Torre fully intends on managing the 2011 season. After that, Don Mattingly is expected to take over for Torre, who will be in his 70s by then.
According to second baseman Ronnie Belliard, he came into camp around 210 -211 pounds. If Belliard doesn&#8217;t reach the 209 weight target, as [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>As announced earlier this week, Joe Torre fully intends on managing the 2011 season. After that, Don Mattingly is expected to take over for Torre, who will be in his 70s by then.</li>
<li>According to second baseman Ronnie Belliard, he came into camp around 210 -211 pounds. If Belliard doesn&#8217;t reach the 209 weight target, as previously agreed upon, his contract is no longer guaranteed. He&#8217;ll reach 209 or lower once he starts running with the team. Don&#8217;t worry.</li>
<li> Vicente Padilla is scheduled to start the Dodgers&#8217; first Cactus League game next Friday. He&#8217;ll face the White Sox.</li>
<li>Padilla has completely healed from the off-season accident, in which he was accidentally shot.</li>
<li>Left-handed pitcher, Eric Stults, will get the call on Saturday against the White Sox as well. Stults hopes to pitch his way into the #5 spot in the regular season rotation.</li>
<li>Matt Kemp gave the worst non-denial, non-acceptance of the Rihanna rumors. It&#8217;s pretty funny how Kemp keeps saying that they&#8217;re very good friends: <a href="http://tinyurl.com/yj8f94l" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/tinyurl.com');">Matt Kemp Radio Interview</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>Clayton Koufax Anaylsis</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/24/clayton-koufax-anaylsis/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/24/clayton-koufax-anaylsis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Feb 2010 04:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contributors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dodgers Recap and Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predicitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BB/9]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Kershaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Koufax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[G:F]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hall of Fame]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inefficient]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[K/9]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Perfect Game]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandy Koufax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strikeouts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unhittable]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1142</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The above title is in jest. Many have compared young Clayton Kershaw to Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax. Kershaw wears #22 on his jersey; Koufax wore #32, which has since been retired by the Dodgers. Both are lefties, and Kershaw certainly does have nasty stuff, but I&#8217;m here to say that those comparisons are premature.
Don&#8217;t [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The above title is in jest. Many have compared young Clayton Kershaw to Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax. Kershaw wears #22 on his jersey; Koufax wore #32, which has since been retired by the Dodgers. Both are lefties, and Kershaw certainly does have nasty stuff, but I&#8217;m here to say that those comparisons are premature.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t get me wrong, here. I&#8217;m very hopeful with regard to Clayton Kershaw&#8217;s career. It&#8217;s just that he&#8217;s only 21 years old (he&#8217;ll be 22 in less than a month), and it&#8217;s awfully early to be branding the guy the next coming of a legendary Hall of Famer.</p>
<p>Before having to retire at the age of 31 due to an arthritic condition, Koufax won <strong>four World Series rings</strong> (twice, he was the WS MVP), <strong>three Cy Young</strong>s, the 1963 <strong>NL MVP</strong> (he finished 2nd in NL MVP voting in each of his last 2 seasons), and notched <strong>six all-star selections</strong>. If that wasn&#8217;t enough, Koufax even threw a perfect game on a historic, yet wacky night (there was only 1 combined hit in the game) in Los Angeles. The legendary left-hander also led the league in K&#8217;s on four separate occasions.</p>
<p>Now that we&#8217;ve established the prematurity of such a branding, not to mention the added pressure it would put on the kid, let&#8217;s look at Kershaw&#8217;s 2009 performance, and the implications, for him, going forward. First, I&#8217;d like to link an informative piece written by Ray Flowers of <a href="http://baseballguys.com/" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/baseballguys.com');">Baseball Guys</a>. Flowers writes from a fantasy baseball perspective, so some of his angles may not be applicable, but the vast majority of the piece is very relevant to Kershaw&#8217;s future prospects. Here it is: <a href="http://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2010/2/Breaking-Down-Clayton-Kershaw" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/ownersedge.fanball.com');">Flowers&#8217; Kershaw Piece</a>.</p>
<p>In the article, Flowers makes a number of arguments, which he bolsters with strong statistical evidence. To sum up his points, Kershaw:</p>
<ul>
<li>was barely unhittable following a &#8220;shaky April&#8221; (lefties did the worst, but righties were not immune)</li>
<li>K&#8217;d the living daylight out of the league (finished 7th in K/9 among all qualifying pitchers)</li>
<li>was very inefficient with his pitches, which helps to explain why he didn&#8217;t go too deep in many of his starts</li>
<li>walked way too many batters (averaged 4.79 walks per nine innings)</li>
<li>was lucky to surrender such few home runs, given his below average ground ball: fly ball ratio</li>
</ul>
<p>These are all great points, but I honestly believe that Kershaw&#8217;s G:F ratio should not be a major concern. Given his live fastball and phenomenal strike out rate, I think a below average rate is to be expected. Even with Kershaw&#8217;s nasty curveball, hitters either whiff on it or get under the ball and pop it up.  While I agree that Kershaw could very well give up more than last year&#8217;s total of 7 home runs, I&#8217;m not worried about that at all.</p>
<p>What I am worried about, however, are Kershaw&#8217;s dual problems of walks and pitch count inefficiency. These two problems go hand-in-hand and are almost like the chicken and egg story. Walks lead to problems with pitch count inefficiency and vice-versa, as a tired pitcher is more likely to walk batters. Like Ray mentioned, Clayton Kershaw was virtually unhittable in 2009. Batters hit .199 against him before the all-star break and .200 thereafter. The problem was that he was walking batters at an alarming rate. Even in the at-bats, which did not result in walks, Kershaw was inefficient. Ray cites an interesting stat in the article: Kershaw averaged the most pitches per plate appearance (4.32) and second most pitches per innings (17.7)  in the league. Of course, if Kershaw were less of a strike-out pitcher, these stats wouldn&#8217;t look as bad, but still, the aforementioned statistics should be cause for genuine concern.</p>
<p>Before I let you ponder the 21 year-old pitching enigma that is Clayton Kershaw, I&#8217;ll leave you with my 2010 CK predictions: Kershaw will win 15 games (only won 8 last season) and post an ERA of around 3.07 (2.79 was his 2009 ERA). He will give up more home runs than he did a season ago, but walk less batters. The strike outs should be slightly increased from 185 to around 200. Finally, Kershaw won&#8217;t figure to be as inefficient as he was in 2009, but he&#8217;ll still be pretty inefficient, if we remain mindful of the nature of his pitching style. Although he obviously hopes to improve his control, a good deal of Kershaw&#8217;s inaccuracy is purposeful in order to confuse the batter. So many of his strike outs come from batters chasing that 12-6 curveball that  seems to drop from the sky to the dirt.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s it. I could talk about this promising pitcher for the rest of my life, but I&#8217;ll cut myself off now.</p>
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		<title>Eric Gagne is Back. Maybe?</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/20/eric-gagne-is-back-maybe/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/20/eric-gagne-is-back-maybe/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Feb 2010 04:43:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contributors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[152 saves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2003 Cy Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[84 straight saves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Can-Am League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Gagne]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monsieur Gagne]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vin Scully]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1137</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Eric Gagne will return to the team where it all began for him&#8230;that is, if he makes their Major League roster. Gagne signed a minor-league contract with the Dodgers. He will earn $500,000 if he makes the team and can potentially earn another half-million in incentives.
Gagne is now 34 years old and has been out [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Eric Gagne will return to the team where it all began for him&#8230;that is, if he makes their Major League roster. Gagne signed a minor-league contract with the Dodgers. He will earn $500,000 if he makes the team and can potentially earn another half-million in incentives.</p>
<p>Gagne is now 34 years old and has been out of the league since 2008, where he struggled mightily for the Brewers. He was released by Milwaukee in spring training of 2009.</p>
<p>As a Dodger, Eric Gagne was an average starting pitcher at best, but is known and loved for the record-breaking Dodgers&#8217; closer he came to be. Between 2002 and 2004, Gagne saved 152 games for Los Angeles and even won a Cy Young award in 2003.</p>
<p>Back then, Gagne was untouchable. In that historic 2003 season, he recorded a WHIP of 0.69 and an opposing batting average of .133. In 82.1 innings, Monsieur Gagne notched 137 K&#8217;s and issued just 20 walks.</p>
<p>He&#8217;ll even wear his old jersey number, 38. Ramon Troncoso was nice enough to surrender the number, noting, &#8220;He made that number for the Dodgers. It&#8217;s his.&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s the same guy, wearing the same number, but don&#8217;t be fooled.</p>
<p>If Eric Gagne makes the team, and that&#8217;s a big if, this will NOT be the same dominant closer last seen in 2004. This Gagne is NOT the same one, who trotted to the mound with &#8220;Welcome to the Jungle&#8221; blasting through the Chavez Ravine speakers. He&#8217;s NOT the same guy. Don&#8217;t be fooled by the nostalgic feelings you have about his three unbelievable seasons.</p>
<p>Still, if Gagne sticks on, it will be an extraordinary story. Eric Gagne was playing in the Can-Am League a season ago. From his days atop the baseball world, Gagne sure has fallen and fallen quickly at that. From what I&#8217;ve heard, Gagne&#8217;s time spent in Canada has allowed him to refuel and consequently regain his passion for the game.</p>
<p>Gagne is saying all the right things. He&#8217;s made it very clear that he&#8217;d like to play three or four years in the MLB, but that he&#8217;d be grateful to play just one more day. I hope that he&#8217;s able to get back to the Bigs, where he electrified countless fans just over half a decade ago.</p>
<p>Bienvenu Monsieur Gagne! I mean welcome back.</p>
<p>Stay blue, my sisters and brothers!</p>
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		<title>2009 Walk Rate Leaders</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/19/2009-walk-rate-leaders/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/19/2009-walk-rate-leaders/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Feb 2010 04:37:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albert Pujols]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Babe Ruth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barry Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lefties]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark McGwire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[plate appearances]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[steroids]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[switch-hitters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[testing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[walk rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[walks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1128</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Before we begin to list the top players in drawing walks per plate appearance, let&#8217;s briefly run through my three hypotheses of the findings:
1.) National League batters should walk more than their American League counterparts, because in the NL, the pitcher hits, making NL lineups overall weaker and seen as less dangerous. With a less [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Before we begin to list the top players in drawing walks per plate appearance, let&#8217;s briefly run through my three hypotheses of the findings:</p>
<p>1.) National League batters should walk more than their American League counterparts, because in the NL, the pitcher hits, making NL lineups overall weaker and seen as less dangerous. With a less dangerous lineup, why not just walk the &#8220;big gunz&#8221; such as those potentially listed below to get to the pitcher? The Designated Hitter, on the other hand, adds strength to AL lineups.</p>
<p>2.)  Players with a better supporting cast (more specifically a dangerous hitter behind them) will tend to walk less. On the other hand, batters with less support should walk more.</p>
<p>3.) Players with a better conception of the strike zone will tend to walk more.</p>
<p>With 430 plate appearances set at the minimum-qualifying barrier, here&#8217;s the top 15 walks rates (BB/PA) of 2009 with some record-setting walk rates (from other years) listed first:</p>
<ul>
<li>2004 Barry Bonds- 232 Walks in 617 Plate Appearances (37.60%)</li>
<li>1923 Babe Ruth- 170 Walks in 699 Plate Appearances (24.32%)</li>
<li>1998 Mark McGwire- 162 Walks in 681 Plate Appearances (23.79%)</li>
</ul>
<ol>
<li>Adrian Gonzalez- 17.47%</li>
<li>Adam Dunn- 17.37%</li>
<li>Lance Berkman- 17.26%</li>
<li>Nick Johnson- 17.25%</li>
<li>Chipper Jones- 16.95%</li>
<li>Manny Ramirez- 16.47%</li>
<li>Albert Pujols- 16.43%</li>
<li>Nick Swisher- 15.98%</li>
<li>Jim Thome- 15.90%</li>
<li>Kosuke Fukudome- 15.42%</li>
<li>Prince Fielder- 15.30%</li>
<li>Carlos Pena- 15.26%</li>
<li>J.D. Drew- 15.21%</li>
<li>Jack Cust- 15.20%</li>
<li>Ben Zobrist- 15.19%</li>
</ol>
<p>1.) As hypothesized, National League betters are generally higher on the list. In fact, the top 7 spots and 9 of the fist 11 spots belong to players who spent all, or at least most, of their time in the National League in 2009. The top AL player in walk rate, Nick Swisher, was only 8th best overall, when included on the same list as the National Leaguers.</p>
<p>Although Jim Thome, who is listed at 9th, finished the 2009 season with the Dodgers, a National League club, we should think of him as an American Leaguer, given that all of Thome&#8217;s 2009 walks (69) were as a member of the White Sox. In 17 plate appearances as a Dodger, Thome did not draw any walks. I believe Thome walked at a far higher rate as a White Sox player, because pinch hitters (his role as a Dodger) are not walked too often. Instead, pitchers tend to throw more strikes to pinch hitters, especially if the top of the order is on deck.</p>
<p>2.) The leader, Adrian Gonzalez, objectively-speaking had one of the worst supporting casts in the Majors and thus, led both leagues in walk rate. The Padres scored the second fewest runs of any team in the Majors. Lance Berkman, also known as #4 on our list, played for the Astros, who were fourth from the bottom as far as runs go. Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson, coming in at 2 and 4, respectively, were both members of the Nationals who also found themselves in the bottom third in team run production in 2009. Even when Nick Johnson was moved to the Marlins, they were still only in the middle of the pack in run production.</p>
<p>Nick Swisher is the best exception to this hypothesis, but even as he led the AL in walk rate, he still only finished 8th in the Major Leagues. Still, he played for the best offensive team in 2009, yet led the league in walk rate. To answer why Nick Swisher drew so many walks, let&#8217;s go to hypothesis number 3.</p>
<p>3.) Nick Swisher is one of the most patient hitters in the Major Leagues. For this reason, among others, A&#8217;s General Manager Billy Beane was enticed enough to take a chance on Mr. Swisher. Beane noticed that as a Buckeye, Billy Bean drew a great deal of walks. Even since his A&#8217;s days, this attribute has stuck with Swisher. The numbers back up this argument. Of Nick Swisher&#8217;s 97 walks in 2009, a mere two were officially listed as intentional. This makes sense if we think about it. With a line-up boasting the likes of Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, and Derek Jeter, would any sane pitcher have intentionally walked many of these guys? Not likely. Even Teixeira and A-Rod only combined for 16 intentional walks in 2009.</p>
<p>Another interesting feature of our list is that only two of the top fifteen guys are strictly right-handed hitters: Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols. Four of the fifteen are switch-hitters, and the final nine batters on the list are purely left-handed hitters. If one looks at the league leaders in home runs and slugging percentage, they are not necessarily made up of primarily left-handers, so why the one-sided pattern here? Lefties just tend to walk more. I think for some reason, pitchers have a tougher time finding the strike zone against left-handed batters. There&#8217;s got to be much more to this that I&#8217;ll hope to explore in the near future.</p>
<p>As a takeaway point, I&#8217;m not at all surprised that no Major Leaguer walked a rate of 20% or more. Whether or not they were only playing with their natural gifts (they probably weren&#8217;t), it&#8217;s indisputable that Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds had special seasons in the years listed above. Barry Bonds set all kinds of records for walks and fear struck into opposing pitchers&#8217; hearts (if that can be objectively measured by walks, that is). For this reason, we should not be at all surprised that walk rates topped out in the 17% range. Furthermore, for whatever reasons, possibly including but not limited to stricter performance-enhancer testing, walks have been decreasing across the Majors following the 2007 season. In 2007,  eleven Major Leaguers drew 100 or more walks. In 2008 and 2009 combined, only eight different guys have drawn walks in the three-digit range. Finally, in today&#8217;s baseball, there are no batters like Babe Ruth in the sense that he was feared as far and away the best power hitter in baseball. Yes, Albert Pujols is widely feared and respected around the league, but it&#8217;s not as if he is seen as a larger than life figure, who is by far the biggest home run threat. There are lots of other home run threats around the league.</p>
<p>*If I had to pick from these 15 guys, I would have to say that Jack Cust of the Oakland A&#8217;s had the most disappointing 2009 season. With a carer low OPS of .773, Cust only hit .240. He drove in a mere 70 runs, but struck out the most in the American League with 185 (only behind Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds for the league lead in that depressing statistical category.</p>
<p>*Nick Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome only hit 19 home runs combined, but both of them (especially Johnson) were salvaged by their OBPs. Nick Johnson actually finished third in the Majors in OBP a season ago.</p>
<p>*Carlos Pena struck out 163 times and only batted .227, but he did hit 39 dingers to tie for the American League lead with Yankee slugger, Mark Teixeira.</p>
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		<title>Weighted On-Base Average Update</title>
		<link>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/17/weighted-on-base-average-update/</link>
		<comments>http://dodgerblueblog.com/2010/02/17/weighted-on-base-average-update/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:18:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ahfischman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contributors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[adjusted]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albert Pujols]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[beyond great]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extra-base hits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Mauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Man Ram]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[walks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wOBA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dodgerblueblog.com/?p=1124</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It turns out that Baseball Reference keeps very reliable statistics on nearly everything imaginable. Now that I&#8217;ve found RBOE (reached base on error) stats, I will recalculate the wOBAs and simultaneously add the 2009 wOBAs for a couple additional players.
*Once again, .340 is considered about average. If one gets .300 or lower, that is poor. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It turns out that Baseball Reference keeps very reliable statistics on nearly everything imaginable. Now that I&#8217;ve found RBOE (reached base on error) stats, I will recalculate the wOBAs and simultaneously add the 2009 wOBAs for a couple additional players.</p>
<p>*Once again, .340 is considered about average. If one gets .300 or lower, that is poor. A great hitter will reach .400 or higher.</p>
<p>NL MVP Albert Pujols&#8217; 2009 wOBA= 325.94/700= .466 (Beyond great)</p>
<p>AL MVP Joe Mauer&#8217;s 2009 wOBA= 271.14/606= .447 (Beyond great)</p>
<p>Andre Ethier&#8217;s 2009 wOBA= 260.8/685= .381 (Very good)</p>
<p>Matt Kemp&#8217;s 2009 wOBA= 253.2/667= .380 (Very good)</p>
<p>Manny Ramirez&#8217;s 2009 wOBA= 179.44/431=.416 (Great&#8230;I&#8217;m a little surprised. A brief explanation will be included below.)</p>
<p>Rafael Furcal&#8217;s 2009 wOBA= 222.8/680 = .328 (Below average)</p>
<p>Russell Martin&#8217;s 2009 wOBA= 192.5/588= .327 (Below average)</p>
<p><strong>So why did Manny have such a great wOBA last season?</strong></p>
<p>First of all, I hope these findings don&#8217;t make you lose confidence in the statistic. It is undeniable that Manny Ramirez tailed off considerably after his return from suspension in 2009. I would, however, go as far as to argue that Manny Ramirez was one of the most valuable hitters in the Dodger line-up throughout the season.</p>
<p>To answer the question above, Manny Ramirez was feared by pitchers all over the National League. His 71 walks (21 of which were listed as intentional) were just 1 short of the team lead, yet Manny played in 56 fewer games than Ethier. In other words, Manny Ramirez drew nearly the same amount of walks as Ethier did last season, but came to the plate 254 fewer times. That&#8217;s remarkable efficiency and should be rewarded in the stats. In sum, those 71 walks really boosted his wOBA and deservedly so.</p>
<p>Manny&#8217;s power also ensured he would finish with a high wOBA. If we look at SLG%, Manny Ramirez was without a doubt the best power-hitter on the team at .531 assuming we exclude Ronnie Belliard, who was only a member of the team for the final 24 games (Belliard slugged .636). Simply put, a huge proportion of Manny&#8217;s hits were extra-base hits (44%). We have to remember that he was absolutely ripping the ball until the last third of July and even thereafter, Ramirez would still hit home runs occasionally.</p>
<p>Once again, Manny&#8217;s propensity to draw many walks and his ability to accumulate lots of extra-base hits explain why his wOBA was so high.</p>
<p>Finally, Manny Ramirez had a pretty good season if you objectively look at what he did over the course of 104 games. I feel that a large part of the criticism he&#8217;s gotten (besides of course the whole steroid issue) can be explained by high expectations. Manny Ramirez, no matter how old he is, will always be judged against himself. He simply set the bar too high for himself! I think as he ages Man Ram will find it increasingly difficult to hit like he used to.</p>
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