Dogcrap Green - betting methods

Betting the Big Game

2010-02-02T17:23:00.000-08:00

Vegas is filling up with Superbowl bettors. What to do?

I made a good bit of change wagering on sporting events. I'm one of the few on the web that year after year I won. Those of you with blogs know that those counters on the bottom of the page not only track general locations of the hits, but when someone from a major corporation hit your site "General Motors" or some other name will show up on the IP address. Me I was getting hits from The Department of Treasury in PA, GA, and Washington. Had me a loyal reader from the Attorney Generals office in Saint Louis and one from DC. These people don't watch you if you lose.

Those of you that had follow me those years. Know I won and they know my style. Last March I pounded the college basket tournament. Who else would win multiple thousands while risking a few hundred?

What my readers also knew is... I had disturbingly little knowledge of the sports. I knew more than your average Joe. I was more objective than most. But when you read the other blogs... Those people know everything. And they use all that knowledge to just barley keep their head above water - Which is something to brag about.

This is what I do know. Money flows in predictable streams. I know I'm not the only one that can predict the stream location and the direction of flow. So can the sportbooks.

There are a thousand and one cappers giving advise for this weeks Superbowl. Saints? Indy? I don't know. What I'm more interested in is how the money is played Thursday through Saturday. And then again Monday. This money will flow down pre dug canals. A line shift of 3 points won't change how the money is wager. So why not shift the lines?

Think about where all this new money is being played. There are plenty of eager folks ready to roll. On Monday 1/2 will think they are immortal. You may think your smart enough to outsmart the bookie on Sunday, but the smart money is playing the days around Sunday.

''Vegas Rules'' - Blackjack

2010-01-04T16:54:00.000-08:00

Where the F is this casino called Vegas Rules? I always remember people dealing cards out in a neighborhood poker game calling for Vegas Rules.

Here are some Vegas Blackjack Rules:

The El Cortez and Four Queens pays 3:2 on single deck when you hit blackjack - Most others pay 6:5

Most pay 3:2 on a blackjack with Double Deck. The Golden Nugget pays 6:5

Four Queens allows Surrender - Most don't

The Vegas Club allows Doubling Down after splitting on any two cards. Most only allows doubling down after splitting if you pull a 11

Most allow you to double down on any two cards. Some only on 9, 10, 11

I'm actually with you

2009-11-10T17:11:00.000-08:00

If you are reading this blog - You just might have a problem

2009-03-14T09:37:00.001-07:00

The standard list of types of gamblers are:

Social (recreational) Gamblers
Frequent Gamblers (also called "heavy" or "serious" gambling
Problem Gamblers
Pathological Gamblers (also called Compulsive Gamblers)
Professional Gambler
Action Gambler
Escape Gambler
Antisocial Gambler
Binge Gambler

For more information click Stop Gambling Now
http://www.stopgamblingnow.com/types_of_gamblers.htm

Dogcrap Green's gambling problem test:

If you ever bought a lottery ticket - You are either one dumb mother fucker or you have a problem.
If you ever played Keno - You are either one dumb mother fucker or you have a problem.
If you believe that despite the fact that the house has a clean cut advantage over every signal dice combination that you can beat the house in craps because you have a system. You are ONE DUMB MOTHER FUCKER WITH A PROBLEM
If you believe that three tails in a row increases the chance the next coin toss will be heads. You are ONE DUMB MOTHER FUCKER WITH A PROBLEM
If you believe that three tails in a row increases the chance the next coin toss will be tails. You are ONE DUMB MOTHER FUCKER WITH A PROBLEM
If you believe that you can beat the house by studying games of skill such as handicapping sports, going up against other less skill poker players, learning the real game of blackjack - GOOD FOR YOU. I'm here to help.

Seriously. If you need help. Get help. As long as you are doing your wagering with a neighborhood bookie, the neighborhood bar, a brick and mortar casino, or an off shore Internet site. You will find the level of ethics and morality of those taking your money to be extraordinary high. Talk to them and setup some guidelines. They will insure that you don't destroy yourself.

If on the other hand you are doing your gambling against a Democratic politician selling lottery or keno tickets with a house advantage of 60%.

He has a budget crisis to "fix"
By destroying your life he drives you to welfare and all welfare receiptans vote Democratic - You'll come to understand why power hungry Democrats strive to destroy society.

You are screwed and you do need. professional help.

PARIMUTUEL WAGERING

2009-03-12T18:27:00.000-07:00

My first time blogging was with a horse handicapping blog. I am damn near the only person out there that was handicapping horses and winning. I had numerous people emailing me with request to handicap the races of their track and rarely let them down with poor picks. Years later I still get hits on my old blog with one of my post rank number one with google pertaining to the tote board. I don't bet on horse though anymore. The last straw for me was when Barbaro broke is leg and they didn't throw that cripple "farm" animal on the barbecue. Apparently most horse people are "animal lovers", because the day after I went off with my outrage that Barbaro wasn't slaughter and served to the people my readership to the old blog went from 500 plus loyal readers checking in everyday to two people.

So what. I still know how to pick and if you want to learn you'll read on.

First off the odds at the track are fucking insane. The only thing worse are the degenerate gamblers that buy lottery tickets from whore governor that are so morally bankrupt that they will exploit the poor to balance their "social justice" budget. If you want to play them - expect to be beaten down by the whores that own the race tracks. The payoff comparisons on the photo are comparing what a horse should pay to win based on the wager pool to what they actually pay to win after the house takes its cut. Only the government has the balls to give more horrific odds. and most casino games are 1/10 the race tracks take.

But if you are a fool you will try to beat the horse track. Here are some tips.

First off I'm always amazed at how many people don't know and understand how to identify the horse with the average fastest speed. I go into this in far more detail with my old blog, but one key number to look at is the paces behind the LEAD horse. The times posted on the program are for the lead horse - NOT the horse your looking at. A horse runs 5 1/2 lengths in 1 second. So if the lead horse came in at 1:18.50 and your horse shows a finish of 8 lengths 1:18.50 the horse's actual time is about 1:19.95. The significance of this information is few and far between people can tell you what the horse is likely to run on a typical day, a good day, or a poor day. They just don't know. If the majority doesn't know and this knowledge is useful. Then it should be the cornerstone of your handicapping method.
The next thing to look at is the tote board. Go for the best value bet for your horse. If your horse owns 25% of the win pool, 30% of the place pool, and 15% of the show pool. Bet the horse to show. If the horse owns15% of the win pool and 25% of the place pool, and 24% of the show pool. Bet the horse to win.
And most important quick tip is - IN PARIMUTUEL WAGERING THE MAJORITY IS ALWAYS WRONG. If everyone at the track is wagering the "speed factors" The pool of money of the best speed factor horse will destroy the value of the wager. If they are all betting the purse winnings - same thing. If everyone is to totally focus on how to pick a horse based on medication - you know what I have to say. Every track has it's own personality and it is an evolving personality. You want a sound system of picking horses that is out of step with the track's prefer system. Adjust the weight you placed on the issues that control a horses likelihood of winning and compare it to the historical payouts.

The name of the game in horse racing is to seek out value despite the track whoring 30 to 40% from the betting pool. When you realize most races don't have a fair value horse - your on the right track. Be patient and wait. It is because of this cat and mouse game that I really love horse handicapping. I enjoy the constant need to update and change my handicapping programs. But I've had it with the whores.

Blackjack - Going up Against the Shoe

2009-03-07T14:16:00.000-08:00

This is my third post on playing blackjack. Ideally you should first read "By the Book, then "The advance technique for the Double Deck", and finally this one.

The principles of when to bet large and when to bet small and how to play your hand are the same with the 4 and 6 deck shoe as they are with a double deck. The difference though of course is you have far more to keep track of.

Here are some simplifying techniques to keep you on course.

A shoe is much more difficult to shuffle than single or double deck. If two 3 of diamonds are displayed on the table - remember the cards before and after it. If two 6 of spades pop up a few hands later - remember the cards dealt before and after that. After the deck is shuffled if two 3 of diamonds and two 6 of spades pop up - Based on what you taught yourself from my "Advance playing techniques" post you know how to wager the next hand. The presents a different type of mental skill. When going up against the shoe you place more focus on memorization than actual "card counting" as done with the single and double deck. You wager based on how the tag cards are combining with one another to help identify the make up of the deck.

Now comes identifying the table to play at. Again you want the sharp seasons versus the shuffle deck. 20 years ago Vegas made this easy. The casinos cheated all the time. It's been over ten years since I witness this happen in Vegas. But many of you play your blackjack outside Nevada. Fact is nobody has more ethics than a Vegas casino owner, you might get lucky and go up against a cheating casino. If so keep your mouth shut and just take their money. Why would it be good news if your casino is a cheat? A skilled blackjack dealer or "Mechanic" understands human nature. When someone bets and lose they bet a little more. When someone bets and win they "manage" their money like the good books tells them and protect their profits.(Have I mention I don't believe in money management crapolla?). Anyways what the Mechanic will do after collecting the cards is make three hand movements. The first pulls the players cards apart by stretching them out to supposedly get a clear view prior to paying or collecting. The second is to swipe through the hands after money is settle. In this swipe all the 10s are pushed towards her discard pile. In the second swipe the remaining cards are swept to the discard pile. (or vise versus) And in fact the next hand dealt it will be vice versus. What she is doing is creating strong seasons. Knowing when the dry spell hits the player will keep upping his bets. A good mechanic can easily create a 5 hand losing streak. do this often and she will bust out the whale. But this is the table YOU WANT to sit at.

The mechanic makes your job easy. You will see the wet and dry seasons. You will know when to let your winnings roll and to tighten up on your loses. Just don't bet bigger than the whale their busting out.

Whores, Gamblers, Politicians and the Balls of Steel nobody has a use for

2009-03-07T05:56:00.000-08:00

The love hate relationship between the government and the gaming industry will never end. with whores now running the political offices you should expect the philosophy of whoring more money from the people through creative methods as an answer to all budget problems.

Here are some interesting tidbits to keep in mind.

Las Vegas Slots has about a 1.5% house advantage

Las Vegas Sport Books have a 4.7% advantage for the dart thrower. Keep in mind first they post their fix odds and then the people decide what to bet. College basketball is a money loser for them. The NBA is a money loser for the house. Baseball all depends on the winning and losing streak of the 4 favorite teams. College football the house squeaks by on. And thank god for the idiot wagering on the NFL, or there would be no point for casinos to enter into the sports wagering business.

Downtown single and double deck blackjack casinos have about a .65% (that's right less than 1 percent) house advantage.

The Govenor of new Jersy needs money so Atlantic City improves the house odds - these casinos are hurting.

River Boats (don't blame them blame your governor's greed) try to make more money by increasing the odds against the palyer even more. These casinos are really huring.

Horse tracks demand a 33% or HIGHER house advantage per race. The horse track owners then approach the govenor with their balls of steal offer of "give us bailout money or we are closing shop because your citizens won't let us whore them out of 33% per race".

The whore Donald Trump took Atlantic City odds to Vegas (a town that doesn't whore the gamblers) and went bankrupt.

Here in Maryland whore Govenor O'Mally sought to bailout the 33% advantage horse industry with a slot bill to scam the Maryland residents with worse odds than most River Boats scams. The casinos knew he was too greedy and did not bid on the right to build slot houses.

The people need hope. The casinos need to lose money to make money. Losing is the key to profits. Before you waste a vote voting on a gambling bailout bill to whore money out of your state's residents, first ask yourself are they proposing to provide a good entertainment package for the people of your state or are they proposing to whore away money.

Whores die alone with nothing in their pockets.

If a buss load of senior citizens goes to the horse track and nobody wins. Nobody gets on that buss for the next senior trip. When a buss load of 60 senior citizens jumps on a bus in LA and goes to Las Vegas. That buss comes back to LA with 25 winners. Those 25 winners keep the bus full trip after trip after trip, because they provide hope for the people and long term profits for Nevada.

I voted against O'Mally's scam to whore Marylanders out of their money because I knew the people were smarter than he thought. The casinos knew it too. We now have legalize slots, but the Casinos refused to bid on the rights to operate the slots. The casino industry knew that if they went along with Governor O'Mally's plan to whore the people out of their money. They would just end up like a whore race track owner stuck paying the bills, the mortgage and taxes on an empty building.

Just because you believe in the right for a casino to exist does not mean you should vote for every money skimming scam dreamed up. If the Govenor's plan does not add value to the community it becomes nothing but a burden to society. Even if you live across the street from a Govenor's budget saving slot house, your better off flying to Las Vegas.

Fix Odds Wagering & Handicapping

2009-02-21T08:30:00.000-08:00

Back when my head had hair on it I went up to Vegas with my bookie. I never understood why he always went up there. He was under 21 and never cover the wagers at the sportbooks. Instead he always phoned in to his Nebraska connection what he could not handle. We hung out outside what was then the birth place of the sport wagering lines. THE STARDUST. The Stardust had a row of pay phones outside near the sports book entrance. Lined up by these phones would be about a dozen or so wise guys in there 60s to 80s with a young kid in his early twenties by his side. We watch as some of them sent their kid into the sports book and others didn't. And as each kid went into the Stardust my bookie then told which city was receiving the heavy bets. "I get it!!!" I understood why he hung out there every weekend.

The big question is can the money flow be predicted?

Lets pretend there are 100 people in a sportsbook and the Earthworms are playing the Maggots. Based on the background of the people there may be 12 people that may or may not bet on the Earthworms and 14 people that may or may not bet on the Maggots but what these people won't do is bet on the other team. There also may be 20 people that are up for the year betting on the Maggots, but lost last week betting the Maggots. And 30 people that are down for the year betting on the Earthworms, but won last week betting the Earthworms.

So who would you bet on? Or what wager did Vegas take as to how you would be betting?

There are eight ways to handicap a game.

1) Crunch the numbers and see who is mathematically superior. (Being an old horse handicapper this is my fundamental technique).

2) Understand that Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. (the birth place of many sporting lines) not only handicaps the sport, but also handicaps the gamblers. All games have the lines shifted a few points knowing in advance that people are human and will react as a mob in predictable fashion to the line. (After I fundamentally handicap 7 or so games using the number crunching technique. I look for a pattern in how the lines appear to be shifted, and never fight the patten on who I select).

3) Have a good grasp of the teams and an ability to conceptually estimate a games outcome. (Everyone claims this is them).

4) A combination of two of the above. (Number crunchers are rarely conceptual handicappers and vice versus).

5) Knowing the "Skinny, or angle". I have no insight info, or even enough interest in sports to know the latest angle. These people can make money by chasing a rumor before it hits the mainstream media.

6)Give way to human nature and money management crapola theories. These people are Doom to Lose. (God bless these people. Without them the casinos wouldn't have the balls to post a line).

7) Toss a coin - You are far better off than the people in group 6 that are being out smarted by the odds maker.

8) Then there are the lazy Me's of the world. They think all they need to know is what side of the line has the largest number of people. There are services that claim to have this information. In my opinion, you are far better off second guess the direction of the line adjustment versus looking at the results. It is possible that the Las Vegas Sports Consultants over pushed a line and swing the crowds onto the winning side. And believe it or not Vegas wants the money of those hedging their lines just like they want everyone elses. All you have to do is beat out each style of bettor once a year - and you beat them all of all they got.

I like to check out various local radio stations in the Internet for team sentiment. Keep an eye on ticket sales. Check what the scalpers are asking for. Watch the win loses against the spread. Studying the stats - not to bet on them, but possibly against them. Trends... Watchout the strange thing is on a Monday or Thursday night football game. People are pulled into betting on a game in which they don't care about the teams. Guess what they use? Guess what you shouldn't do. I use to check flight out to Vegas. I counted the number of empty seats on various specif flights every Thursday. Not see easy to do that now since 9-11. I like knowing who is in Vegas for a convention. The week before is interesting too. It's the teaser week where everyone says "Imagine how much we would have won." Next thing you know their buddies are asking for favors before heading off to their convention.

Keep this in mind though. People tend to favor one method of wagering over the others. Some like dogs, others like the favors, some go for the home team, others go for the away team. Many like rank teams. And on and on. Because the wagers are often so heavily leverage, you only have to have a clean sweep of one side of these bets once a year to bust most people out and have all the gambler's money.

Don't think the odds of you losing 12 in a row are possible - GUESS AGAIN. You are going up against a free thinking human. Not random numbers. And for every 9 people that don't bet like me. One does. And the bastards at LVSC are gunning for me too!!!! Sometimes all the obvious bets will butcher you alive. But if you wager on parlays a 12 game losing streak is no worse than any other bad day. And as a parlay bettor I have them all the time. But the winning days make up for them.

BlackJack by the "Book" - click on image to enlarge

2009-02-07T14:19:00.000-08:00

I stole this from"Instructional Services" you can call them at 702-897-1008 to learn how to order a plastic playing card with this information on it. You can also buy these cards at the CVS that is at the top of the Fremont Street across from the movie theater and kitty corner from the El Cortez. They cost about $2.00

I don't hold much stock in playing by the "book". The book is design to slow down your pace of losing. It does not swing the odds into your favor. But if your looking for a good time and are interested in the free drinks. What the hell.

With your hand being the left column and the dealer up card being the top. You are suppose to hit on the yellows, stand on the purple, double down on the reds, and split on the blues. And the books says don't ever buy insurance.

Here are some suggestions on shaking the book up. If your playing a single deck and you pulled two 10s the odds of the dealer having 21 are much less than if you pulled a 5 and a 9. "Insurance" is not insurance. It is a bet on whether the dealer has 21. you should be more incline to buy when crap cards are dealt to you and your friends and less incline to buy when your at the table all sitting on 20s - yet people always "insure" their good hands and take the risk on their poor hands.

Next is how to play off the dealer's Ace after the round of insurance passes. This is where the "book" is flat out wrong and so are the people. YOU KNOW THE DEALER DOES NOT HAVE A 10. The odds are fairly high that the dealer is sitting on a crap hand that may even bust. DO NOT CHASE IT LIKE THE OTHER FOOLS AT THE TABLE. 8 is the middle of the deck with the tens. Remove the tens from the equation and the middle of the deck becomes a 5 with 8 becoming the middle of the deck on the dealer hit card. Add that all up and an Ace showing for the dealer after the dealer proves she did not have a ten in the hoe adds up to fairly high chances she will bust. I would normally be incline to play against a dealer's Ace the same way the book says to play against a dealer's 8.

I also believe the book is wrong when is says never double against an Ace. Again you know the dealer does not have the ten in the hole. Now that you know the dealer does not have the 10, it is as safe to double down against the Ace as it normally would be against the dealer with an up 8 card. Like wise you should be as aggressive with the splitting of cards against an Ace as you are against an 8. In my opinion the book does not properly recalc the odds on the cards with the knowledge the dealer has no 10 down. You have to take the appropriate risks at the right time if you want to win.

The next issue I have with the book is on splitting Aces. Unless your card counting and know it's a good time - It's not as good as one would think. You get one card and one card only. Spilt Aces and your likely to have one hand 18 or under and another hand 19 or over with a net result of a push. the 6,7,8,9 s account 30% of the deck gives you a winning hand out of the gate. Pull a crap card and you are guarentee another shot. With round two of your remaining 70% chance you now have 48% chance of pulling a winning hand. The two round option puts you well over the 50% chance of winning versus odds on push with the split. Where the book goes wrong is most Vegas casinos modified their rules and only allow one hit on splitting Aces. It wasn't always like that.

Where I think the book comes in handy is in taking breaks from card counting. If you count every deck the house then starts counting themselves. If you are in a position where the house reshuffles on all your good counts - your screwed. By playing by the "book" for a couple of decks and card counting a couple of decks and keep switching back and forth. You will be able to play uninterrupted for hours.

Many of you love to ask questions while at the table. Unlike poker the players all have a common enemy, so the comradely/animosity is much greater. If your looking for guidance, it's human nature to take it from the loud mouth know it all at home plate. He is only pretending to know how to play. The mild manner sociopath at first base is the real card counter. When he bets large he is betting that the dealer will bust. When he bets small he is betting the dealer won't bust. If you pull a 14 against the dealer's seven. You stand if he has a large bet large and you hit if he has a small bet. When your at the transition points in the book you basically want to play more aggressively on hitting on a low count and give the dealer a chance to beat herself on the high count. Likewise you split and double down more aggressively on a dealer's high count versus the low count. This way you can get your sound advise without disrupting the card counter's concentration (or more importantly calling attention to the pit boss) and get to play and drink at the same time.

Sport Wagering MoneyLines

2009-01-31T11:04:00.000-08:00

Click on Image to Enlarge

Money Lines are payout and cost of a bet based on out right winning the game. A negative moneyline is the amount a person has to put up to win 100 and positive money line is the amount a person wins if he wager 100.

The attached are the fair values between favor and underdog money line that I calculated using the standard 10 point juice. If your book has a larger spread - look around for a better book.

Internet Wagering

2009-01-25T10:41:00.000-08:00

Things are fucked up. And it's going to get worse.

Once upon a time we all knew our neighborhood bookie. And there were plenty of them. Then came Internet gambling. It was allowed to flourish until all neighborhood bookies were gone. Then comes the crack down on Internet gambling. Then the Feds earned the right to monitor banking transactions thanks to 9-11.

With sports wagering brought to its knees by the fat bitch. Now is the time for the death blow from those that despise it.

Be careful. Right and left people are getting arrested for booking bets.

For most of us. A round trip ticket to Vegas is about $200. Other places that have sports wagering are: Mexico, the Bahamas, Most Caribbean Countries, European Countries, Australia.

You don't have to be in Vegas to collect from Vegas. Most books will mail you a check if you mail them the winning ticket. If you know someone going - just have them place a bet for you and bring the TICKET back and for God's sake if the work for the government don't ask them to bring your cash back. If you plan on flying out within 120 days of your wager. you can always cash in your own ticket to help fund the trip. And be sure to return the favor and place a few wagers for friends.

If you are pushing the limits of legality - I suggest you keep your mouth shut and keep your banking transactions to a minimum. When cashing out keep this in mind. By law your banks must report any deposit over $10,000. Many banks keep re cords on $5,000 deposits. If the check you deposit is the exact same size as your paycheck - NOTHING STANDS OUT. And an unfortunate lesson learned from experience YOUR BANKER is FAR MORE TRUSTWORTHY than your stock broker.

The Birth Place of the Sport Lines

2009-01-17T16:16:00.000-08:00

LVSC risen in stature to fill in the Stardust shoes following their closure.

In business since 1982, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. (LVSC), the world's largest oddsmaking company, blends online technology with personal service to provide odds and pointspreads to all major Las Vegas and international sports books. The LVSC consensus line remains the most valued commodity for sports gaming all over the world.

http://www.lvsc.com/index2.html

BlackJack - Advance playing techniques for double deck

2009-01-04T06:55:00.000-08:00

There are books out there that teach you how to lose 1/2 a bet per hour. If that's your goal stop reading this and buy those books.

And then there is the classic approach to card counting. Supposedly the MIT folks made this famous - but they and Hollywood are liars. No big deal. I lie all the time when folks ask me questions they have no business asking. For whatever reason people will ask a gambler things they would never ask anyone else. Screw them I lie. I move that decimal point all over the place. No big deal. lying is easier than refusing to answer.

If you want to believe the MIT method of card counting here is the catch. With $10,000 and no deviation from the plan, you will make $10.00 per hour. Who the fuck walks into a casino with $10,000 and goals to make $10.00 per hour? Now if you walk into a casino with $4,000 your goal would have to be $4.00 per hour. But wait a minute your low betting limit would be below the houses minimum bet. So they got you beat already. Now that the casinos had time to reflect on the "MIT Method" it's no wonder they just don't care as much about card counters as they use to. Hollywood and the liars from MIT did them a favor. They sent fools down the wrong path in learning how to beat the house. I'm not saying the folks at MIT can't card count. I'm just saying they lied on their methodology of card counting. And I ain't going to tell you how too either.

Teach yourself.

The way to learn how to play blackjack is to learn how to teach yourself. I usually play at the two deck tables in Downtown Vegas. Learning how to play at these casinos requires that you buy two decks of cards. Are you with me so far?

Take those cards and remove all the 2,3,4 Take the remaining cards and shuffle them. Now take 10 cards at random from the remaining card pile and add it to the 2,3,4 pile. This is important. When your sitting at the blackjack table - you know, but you don't know what's in the deck. Don't make the mistake of training with all precise answers, or you will be sitting at the table staring at the lights trying to calculate the wrong answer to the third decimal in your head. You're teaching yourself both how to play with various ratios of cards within a deck and how to recognize what those ratios are when playing. You should have 34 cards in your new deck. Practice repeatedly with this deck.

Repeat this process this time isolating the 4,5,6. Repeat that with 7,8,9. Repeat that with face cards. Repeat it again with low card and face cards. Repeat it again with every off balance ratio you can think of.

You will see a pattern - With some decks the dealer is more likely to bust than with other decks.

Now repeat the process again and play against the dealer.

Again you will see a pattern. With some decks you are more likely to win than with other decks.

Next you need to learn how to recognize what the ratio of cards are with the dealers remaining cards. To do this repeat the whole process again. This time take your discard pile a quickly deal them up. Put them aside and now go back to practicing your playing technique and betting strategy. You ain't done yet. You have to do everything again and again and again.

Next step is to buy a whole lot more deck of cards. Combine the the decks in twos and repeat the process of separating the cards within each of your double decks for every card ratio you have practiced. Now deal the cards up quickly from the discard pile and then put those aside - guess which ratio of cards you have selected in the remaining cards to be dealt. Do this for every double deck you have over and over and over again and again until your able to recognize the ratio of cards in the playing by reviewing the disk card pile.

Now take a fresh whole double deck and practice. Hopefully you know when to bet large, when to bet small, when to play your cards aggressively, and when to be conservative. Just keep practicing.

In blackjack the house has a .5% to 1% advantage. It varies from casino to casino because they all have their own little twist to the rules.

Guess why I like Fremont Street Casinos?

Now if you play by "the book" you will lose that .5 to 1% over the long run. But believe me that number of hands add up fast. Most people are not discipline enough to play strictly by "the book" and more importantly than all these things. The Casino can live through a 10 hand losing streak - Can you? Believe it or not if you play all weekend you will play enough hands to have a 50% of losing ten hands in a row.

But don't lose faith. the Casino is expected to win about 52 hands for your 48. There are places in America where it rains 48 days out of 100. Despite these odds no Sportbook is crazy enough to except bets on whether it will rain or not. By teaching yourself how to play blackjack you will come to understand that a deck of cards has seasons. A "good" table is not the one where everyone is happy. The table with the pissed of players are playing against a deck with sharp seasons. They win 4 in a row lose 4 in a row, and are getting slaughter. For most people seasons are the kiss of death, because human nature draws people into a progressive betting scheme of increasing the wager during the drought and cutting back the bets during the rainy season.

Blackjack is all about understanding the seasons before you place your bet. Bet large during the 49 day rainy season and small during the 52 day drought. As a rule of thumb when you are betting large you are are betting that the dealer will bust - in turn you should be playing your hand conservatively. When you are betting small, you are betting that the dealer won't bust - now you should be playing your hand more aggressively.

Rather than a million posts and 100s of bad books of BS crap that only models the Hollywood movies. The only real way to learn how to properly play the blackjack seasons is to teach yourself how to card count. I hope you will learn in the process why progressive betting is BAD BAD BAD. 10 loses in a row - it does happen. Bet big when your likely to win. Bet small when your likely to lose. Play conservative when the dealer is likely to bust. Push your luck when the dealer is likely to pull it off. Sometimes you hit on a 13 against a 3 and sometimes you stand. Don't bet based on whether you won or lost the hands before.

I will say just one thing. If nothing else when your practice blackjack hopefully you will learn why progressive betting is the kiss of death. If you're in Key West and it has been sunny for 5 straight days would bet 35 times your bet you placed at the beginning of the losing streak that it will rain tomorrow? If you are a progressive gambler you lost 1, 2, 4, 9, 20 or 36 total. So do you bet 40 that it will rain, after all it rains 180 days a year at Key West? If it didn't rain for 5 straight days - It's February you stupid shit. The middle of the dry season. Don't think I'm digressing from card counting - THIS IS IMPORTANT - Do not bet progressively irregardless of the card count!!!! Human nature is a powerful thing. It will break you if you give it a chance.

So now you are ready to play. Now comes the frustrating part. In all your practicing you have been playing against an imaginary casino. You will soon find out that the real casino is also playing against you. Now that you're a real card counter. You'll soon find out what I mean. They will start card counting too. If the casino deals 3/4 of the deck and buries the final 1/4 despite not pulling the Red marker. It's a bad sign. Don't fight it - go home and practice your techniques for flying under the radar. Step number 1) stop behaving like a sociopath. Its your personality that tips them off, not your card counting skills.

Simple - Stupid - Betting click on image to enlarge

2009-01-04T06:31:00.001-08:00

The tote board in a typical Vegas sport book is divided up into columns per type of sport. College basketball will typically list the school and professional basket will list the mascot. Professional football will normall have both the city and the mascot listed.

When selecting your wager. Simply rattle off the number. If you do not mention OVER, Under, or Money Line by default you wager the normal spread bet.

On the money line wagers, the negative numbers reflect how much needs to be wager to win $100. The positive numbers reflect how much will be won if you wager $100.

For example if you were to say $190 on the ML for 3331. You just put up $190 to win $100 on the Ravins to win. Few tourist bet the money lines in Vegas. But keep in mind the teams do not play to cover a spread.

Basketball Teaser - click on image to enlarge

2009-01-03T12:16:00.000-08:00

A teaser allows you to shift the line on the game in your favor. Multiple games can be teased at once. When this is done you must when all the bets just like in a parlay. Because of the advantages caused by shifting the line you would not collect as much as with a parlay, but your odds of winning are greatly improved.

For example if you wanted the Sacramento Kings +7 1/2 over the Indiana Pacers and the Charlotte Bobcats -1 1/2 over the Milwaukee Bucks. You can pick both teams and tease them 5 points.

Now your picks are:
Sacramento Kings +12 1/2
Charlotte Bobcats +3 1/2

with the odds at 10 to 13 or for every $130 wager you would win $100 plus get your $130 back.

Not all sportbooks offer competative odds. Check your odds to make sure they are fair.

Football Teasers Over/Under - click on image to enlarge

2009-01-03T11:56:00.000-08:00

A teaser allows you to shift the line on the game in your favor. Multiple games game be teased at once. When this is done you must when all the bets just like in a parlay. Because of the advantages caused by shifting the line you would not collect as much as with a parlay, but your odds of winning are greatly improved.

For example if you want Baltimore Ravens/Miami Dolphins Over with the point total of 38 and you liked San Diego/Colts under 49 and you were eyeing the Philadelphia Eagles/Vikings under 41 total. You can pick all three of your teams and improve your position on each game by 5 points.

Now your bet would be Ravens/Miami over 33, San Diego/Colts under 54, Eagles/Vikings under 45 at 17 to 10. Or for every $10 you wager you would win $17 plus get your $10 back.

Each sportbook is fre to have their own odds and they do differ. Shop around to make sure yours is fair.

Football Teasers - click on image to enlarge

2009-01-02T19:53:00.000-08:00

A teaser allows you to shift the line on the game in your favor. Multiple games game be teased at once. When this is done you must when all the bets just like in a parlay. Because of the advantages caused by shifting the line you would not collect as much as with a parlay, but your odds of winning are greatly improved.

For example if you want Baltimore Ravens over the Miami Dolphins with the Ravens favor by 3 1/2 and you liked San Diego over the Colts with the Chargers 1 1/2 point underdogs and you were eyeing the Philadelphia Eagles who were 3 point favor to the Vikings. You can pick all three of your teams and add 6 1/2 points to the lines in your favor.

Now your bet would be Ravens +3, San Diego +8, Eagles +3 1/2 at 3 to 2. Or for every $20 you wager you would win $30 plus get your $20 back.

Sportbooks are not obligated to pay the same odds. verify your odds to make sure your book is fair.

Parlay Wagering - Click on image to enlarge

2009-01-02T19:35:00.000-08:00

If a person were to bet three games in a row let his money run with each bet. It would pay close to 6 to 1 assuming he won. Of course you would only need to lose once to return zero. A parlay allows a person to let his money run even on concurrently played games.

If you have to lay 110 to win 100 the parlay would be calculated by dividing 100 by 110. With money lines the same principle applies.

For example a three team money line parlay based on the following teams:

Crap +135
Piss -180
Maggots +260

1 x 135/100 = 1.35+1 returns 2.35
2.35 x 100/180 = 1.31+2.35 returns 3.66
3.66 x 260/100 = 9.5+3.66 returns 13.16

odds = 13.16-original 1 = 12.16 the 12.16 odds will be the result irregardless of the order in which you run your calculations.

Just because the odds say you should be paid x number of dollars does not mean the casino actually pays it. Normally they round down. You are already compounding your juice, plus they round down on top of that. The one exception is typically the three game parlay. This one is normally rounded up by .04 of 5.96 or less than a percent.

Parlays can be a mixture of straight bets and moneylines. You may also blend multiple sporting venues. Just tell the person behind the counter you want a parlay and then rattle off the team number and state moneyline each time you prefer the money line.

There is no law on how much a casino pays on a parlay and they do very a lot. If the name of the casino draws in the tourist - They normal don't pay well. The ones off the beaten path will sometimes bump the payoff up a bit. Fremont Street normally pays better than the Strip. Two of my favorite books are The El Cortez on Fremont Street and the Las Vegas Hilton on the Strip.

If you throw a money line into the parlay often the sportsbook will revert to the formula calculation. For those of you going for a large number of teams I strongly advocate a moneyline pick. For example. With a 6 team parlay you might win 40 to 1. But if there is a team that has a line of -1 1/2 or a money line of -120. If you bet all 6 teams straight you would get the 40 to 1. Take 5 teams straight and the moneyline at -120 and your odds are 45 to 1. You increase your payoff, plus increase your likelihood of winning, since now your ticket would be a winner even if that 6th team squeaks by with a one point win. But again there are no laws. Some places even have formulas to round down the money line picks. If you are a sports bettor, there is no reason to be in the sportsbook of the typical casino you would see in the movies.

The spreadsheet I have above can quickly be setup by any simple idiot. I'm sure you can figure out how to replicate it. Another quick way to check what is a fair payoff. Is to look on the internet. Intertops.Com lets you play with your wagering options even if you don't have an account. If you are in a sportsbook that talks in terms of payoffs instead of odds. A red flag should be trip. 12 to 1 odds means you win 12 plus get your 1 back. A payoff of 12 for 1 means they pocket your dollar and you only get 12 back.