Doppler Dale's Weather Posts

Severe Weather Season Is Here: Stay Safe with WeatherCall

2013-03-18T08:56:00.000-05:00

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Another BIG Winter Storm To Bring Heavy Snow/Severe Storms

2013-02-23T19:13:00.000-06:00

Another very strong late winter storm system will be digging into the 4-corners late this weekend. With it will come yet another round of very heavy snow across many of the same locations that just saw 6"-12" on Wed/Thu. The snow will be falling first across the mountains of Utah, Colorado, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona and New Mexico, today/Sunday. The storm will begin to strengthen on Monday and as it does the intensity of the snow will increase across the panhandles of TX/OK and through Kansas into Nebraska.

On the southern end of this system, a wide swath of moderate to heavy rain will be found. By Monday morning, heavy rain will be found from southwest Georgia into the Ozarks of southwest Missouri. Along the Gulf Coast is where we could find some severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will be for damaging winds and hail.

As Monday progresses, the precipitation shield will expand over Missouri. At the same time cold air will be crashing further east. I expect the rain to change over to heavy snow along the I-70 corridor from Topeka back into central Missouri. Additionally, the system will be deepening and that means strong winds will become a threat. Mixed with the heavy snow a blizzard is potentially setting up for this region. The colder air will make it to the Mississippi River by Tuesday morning changing over lingering rain to a wintry mix and then snow for the St. Louis Metro area eastward into the western Ohio Valley.

A Strong Push to End Meteorological Winter

2013-02-21T14:05:00.002-06:00

Mother Nature is going to remind you that while the end of February brings a close to meteorlogical winter, the official end is not until the 20th of March. Today, we are seeing the first of several strong waves of energy that will bring wintry weather to much of the nation. The center of the nation is being whitened out with heavy snow from Kansas to Illinois. When it is all done a very large swath of 6" of snow will be on the ground including the areas around Wichita, Kansas City, northwest St. Louis and into central Illinois.

This is only round, one, though of a return taste of winter. The next storm system is already entering into the picture in the Gulf of Alaska. This upper wave will drop southeast into the 4-Corners region this weekend. More mountain snows will be possible with this wave of energy. The storm will progress into the center of the nation on Monday bringing another round of wintry precipitation possible from Missouri into the Upper Midwest. This round; however, will be much lighter but will add to the snow pack. This will help aid intensify the cold air that will be following in behind it.This shot of cold will follow all the way to the Atlantic coast and as far south as the Southeast.

The pattern that is setting up will have a large trough encompassing most of the eastern U.S. The center of the trough will be over Quebec/eastern Ontario Canada and this will help spin additional waves of energy ouf of the Plains of Canada through the Plains of the U.S. and into the Southeast through the next 10 to 12 days. That means a cold and active period is likely to occur from the Plains to the Midwest and even into the Southeast.
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January Will End On a Wild Side

2013-01-27T18:14:00.001-06:00

The end of this January is going to be full of all types of weather from rain, snow, warm and cold to some tornadoes, too. A full outlook is provided in the below weather briefing video.
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Where Was the FREEZING Rain?

2013-01-25T12:58:00.001-06:00

Waking up this morning I was reminded that no matter how much education and experience one gains in the meteorological field that the weather will do as it wishes, rehumbling those of us in the field. I, like many of you, awoke expecting to see at least wet conditions if not a bit icy and chilly. But to instead find it dry and milder with temperatures no where near freezing, around 40, was a surprise. As a result, I decided a good work out was needed to regain my thoughts and disgust over my forecast.

I will admit, I believed, yesterday, this was a tough forecast in where we (TN Valley) were on the bitter edge of the icing issue. But the strength of the cold and dry air that had just arrived and was in place, I felt, was going to do its dirty work. My experiences over the past 16 years have shown how hard it is to erode arctic air in a "wedging event" when the flow remains easterly at the surface. I have also been bitten, this time not being the first, when the air is quite dry. I have been bitten in both directions. One in where the dry air is so that it keeps any precipitation from ever reaching the ground. One case in particular comes to mind. I was working the overnight shift and we had several inches of snow in the forecast (3"-7"). As the early morning hours ticked away we watched the radar light up brightly but nothing was reaching the ground. Every hour that passed we realized one less inch was going to accumulate. By sunrise, the echoes were diminishing. Nearly 6-8 full hours of solid radar returns had occured with just a flurry making its way to the surface. The other situation was in which no frozen precipitation was expected by the dry air instead created enough evaporational cooling that, SURPRISE, snow/sleet was falling. And yes, it accumulated and caused trouble. This was an event in which it was somewhere in the middle of these two.

Last night when I was calling it a night, temperatures across northeast Alabama and southern-middle TN had fallen to near freezing with many locations reporting 32-35 degrees. Dewpoints were also still in the teens indicating the existence of the dry air. The first radar echos were also just being detected between Memphis and Jackson Tennessee and all things appeared on course as forecast. However, as the next 8 hours evolved the forecast quickly became erroneous.

Midnight

At midnight, the echoes were intensifying over western Tennessee and beginning to propogate eastward, as forecast. Temperatures were still on course, too, holding near to even below freezing in a few spots of Madison County. Surface flow also continued from the east allowing the advection of even more colder and drier air from southeast Tennessee (temps in the upper 20s) and northern Georgia (temps near freezing). It did appear, at this time, that the chances for freezing rain in northwest Alabama was looking less likely. All in all, at this time frame the forecast still looked rather good.

3am

At 3am, this is where we begin to see the makings of a busted forecast. By this time, I was anticipating a wider coverage area of radar echos across Tennessee and northwest Alabama. In stead, there were only a few pockets of radar returns, mainly in Tennessee. In turn, the dry air was not being allowed to do its work with evaporational cooling. This was expected to be occurring around this time and in doing so would have helped to retard the arrival of the warmer air from the west. Since the evaporational cooling was not taking place, compressional heating from the approaching cold front was being able to easily warm the dry air at the surface without obstacle. Temperatures had now risen into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees as far north as the Alabama-Tennessee State line. In fact, a few stations in Madison County were now reporting temperatures in the lower 40s.

6am

By 6am, there was no doubt that FREEZING rain was no longer a concern across the Tennessee Valley. Even the mountains of northeast Alabama was seeing the cold air eroding out as temperatures were rising into the upper 30s to near 40 in the valleys and into the middle 30s at the ridge tops. Additionally, there still was no wide spread echos shown on radar to help indicate the possibility of evaporational cooling. It would not be until 9am, almost a full 6 hours behind schedule, that we would see the radar light up as a broad area of rain was moving into and through the Valley.

9am

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Icy Start to Friday in The Southeast/TN Valley

2013-01-24T14:16:00.001-06:00

A complicated weather situation is developing across the Tennessee Valley. An arctic cold front has slid through northern Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia with a sharp temperature spread from north to south. As of 10 AM, temperatures in central Alabama were in the 50s while along the AL/TN border temperatures were around 35. Additionally, much drier air is filtering in, too, with dewpoints down into the teens across southern-middle TN. This will come into play with regards to the weather expected Friday morning.

Yet another cold front , currently over the Dakotas, will be sliding eastward into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In its advance, it will push warmer air from the west towards the Southeast. This warmer air will have an easier time progressing eastward in the upper levels of the atmosphere than at the surface because of the stubborn, more dense arctic air that will be trying to hold its position, especially east of I-65 and into the valleys of northeast Alabama, northern Georgia and southeastern Tennessee.

FRI AM Low Temps & Possible Glazing Area

The warmer air will begin to slide up over the top of the shallower, denser cold air at the surface later this evening across the Mississippi Valley (AR/MO) and through the early morning hours across western Tennessee and Alabama. This will allow for light precipitation to begin to develop across the Ozarks by late evening with most of it likely being in the form of rain and freezing rain. By about 3 am, icy freezing rain will likely be falling, light in nature, across much of western Kentucky, Tennessee and into northwest Alabama. By 6 am, the light freezing rain will likely be falling across much of Kentucky southward through Tennessee and into northeast Alabama. The freezing rain will continue to lift east-northeast into northern Georgia and eastern Tennessee through Friday morning. As temperatures continue to rise above freezing, the freezing rain will transition over to just plain, cold rain.

What makes this forecast so difficult is pinpointing exactly where the precipitation will fall, the exact temperature at the surface and the amount of precipitation. At this time, it appears for the Tennessee Valley, the bulk of the precipitation will be generally light and likely in the form of mainly cold rain. However, the further north and east one goes, the threat increases for more significant ice glazing occurring. The dry air and lower dew point temperatures mentioned above will become KEY to this forecast. This dry air will first act to inhibit precipitation from reaching the ground. This will help keep amounts down. But at the same time, as precipitation falls and evaporates in this drier air, evaporational cooling will take place. This could cool the entire atmospheric column enough to allow for the precipitation to initially begin as a brief period of sleet. Additionally, it would likely help to lower surface temperatures to below freezing for many locations across northern Alabama with some locations reaching into the upper 20s. The coldest temperatures will likely occur across eastern Madison County into Jackson County and DeKalb County in Alabama and in Lincoln, Franklin Marion and Moore Counties in Tennessee.

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Southern Ice Today, Snow for Thursday?

2013-01-15T10:58:00.000-06:00

The cold front that has brought much colder conditions back to the TN Valley has basically stalled from north-central Georgia into east-central Alabama down to near Mobile along the Gulf coast. Air still remains very warm ahead of the front with temperatures back into the 60s/70s while they quickly drop into the mid 30s across the TN Valley and into the upper 20s back into the Mid-South.

This frontal boundary will remain the focus to allow a couple surface waves to ride northeastward along. These surface waves will help bring yet more rainfall to much of South for another 24 hours. This continues to bring the concern for additional flooding and also icing. It appears that another 0.50" to 1.0" rainfall is possible across the Tennessee Valley. Flooding is already occurring on the Paint Rock River in Woodville and on the Big Willis Creek in Ft. Payne. Additionally, the Flint River in Brownsboro will likely climb out of its banks over the next day or so.

Besides the flooding the threat for icing is also a concern. As of now (10am Tue), temperatures are above FREEZING across all of north Alabama and generally also across southern-middle Tennessee. Looking at the temperature profile of the atmosphere this morning, an abundance of warmer air is just above the surface and it is basically saturated through the atmospheric column. This should translate to just rain for the daylight hours in the Tennessee Valley. However, if you have travel west into northern Mississippi and western Tennessee be prepared from some rough travel possibilities. An area of rain developing over Arkansas will move into this region where temperatures are generally 28-30 degrees. This will bring about a significant icing event with ice accumulations greater than 0.25" likely. An ICE STORM WARNING has been issued by the National Weather Service until Wednesday AM.

For the Tennessee Valley, the concern would come this evening/tonight as the last of the surface waves lifts northeast past the region and into eastern Tennessee. As this happens, it could draw through some of this colder air across the Mid-South into the Valley, especially west of I-65. This would cause the threat for additional icing in northwest Alabama into southern-middle Tennessee. It remains a border line event and in turn is still difficult to nail completely down.

A brief quiet and dry period is likely to occur across the Valley Wednesday PM. The only fly in the ointment would be the possibility of some drizzle but I think we will be able to dry out, briefly. Then comes a rather vigorous upper level wave diving through Texas. It will move into Louisiana during the early morning hours, Thursday. In response, another surface wave will spin up out of the northern Gulf of Mexico and likely lift northeast into central Georgia. As this happens and the upper level wave rolls into the Tennessee Valley, an additional wide swath of precipitation is likely to break out. First across central Alabama and lifting in and through the TN Valley. The BIG CONCERN is the lingering cold air already in place and the likely enhancement of the cooling aloft as a result of the strong upper wave. I am concerned of the possibility of some pockets of heavy snow with ACCUMULATION across portions of the Valley on Thursday. I feel pretty confident that some snow will fall across at least a portion of the TN Valley but narrowing down the exact location is still a difficulty.

I will be watching both of these events very closely and providing updates here and on Facebook. Please continue to follow my updates. -->

Icing a Concern Into Tuesday for Northern Alabama-Southern TN

2013-01-14T15:43:00.003-06:00

A very complex situation is setting up across the Tennessee Valley with temperatures (as of 3pm) down to freezing in several locations and just above in others. Several reports of freezing rain have already been reported along and west of I-65 through northwest Alabama and throughout southern-middle Tennessee. Reports of glazing in the trees and on powerlines have been common in these locations with some reports of up to 1/4" of an inch already reported.

Air Temperatures 3pm CT

Going through the remainder of Monday
evening, I expect temperatures to hold nearly steady but they could fall another degree of two in a few spots. This will allow for a mix of rain and freezing rain to be common throughout Madison County and as you head north and west the chances of freezing rain increase.

My biggest concern is the amount of potential rainfall overnight. Another 1/2" to 1" of rainfall is possible by 8 am, Tuesday. If temperatures hover closer to the 30-31 range then a wider range of issues will occur with icing even possible on elevated roadway surfaces.

As of now, the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory with additional accumulations of ice up to 1/10 of an inch. This is a fluid situation and can easily change. I will provide updates as needed. -->

Christmas Day Severe Weather Potential: Tornado Risk

2012-12-23T17:19:00.002-06:00

I am tracking a powerful Christmas Day storm system that will impact the southern U.S and the Tennessee Valley on Christmas Day. It will track from Louisiana to the Tennessee Valley and as it does, it will deliver the Tennessee Valley waves of rain, some heavy, beginning during the early afternoon hours. Further south, along the Gulf Coast from eastern Texas into southern Alabama, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with the potential for tornadoes. This should be taken into consideration if you are planning Christmas Day travel southward along I-65 or southwest along I-20.

As the center of the storm system lifts out of Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley, Christmas evening, the more unstable atmosphere from southern Alabama will lift towards the region. As it does, our thunderstorm chances will increase, especially along and east of I-65. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong, yet once again; even a few severe storms could occur from Cullman County into Marshall and DeKalb counties.

The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a large area of enhanced severe weather potential for Christmas Day for the Gulf Coast into Alabama.

Christmas Day Snow Looking Likely with Significant Accumulations Possible

2012-12-22T08:47:00.000-06:00

Click for Storm Timeline Annimation

Watching for the likely development of a strong storm system to lift northeastward out of eastern Texas on Christmas Day. This storm will bring with it holiday traavel issues as it will have with it rain, thunderstorms and snow. It will likely bring a band of accumulating snowfall from Oklahoma through the Ozarks and into the western Ohio Valley on Christmas Day. This will impact travel along interstates: 40, 44, 35, 57, 55 and 24.

Further south, rain will be expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. Even thunderstorms will be possible along the Gulf Coast with some of these potentially becoming severe. This will slow your travel along interstates: 10, 20, 55 and 65.

The low pressure system will lift over the TN Valley and into lower Ohio Valley during the overnight hours, Wednesday. As it does, it will take the accumulating snow further east into the Ohio Valley. Travel impacts will spread to impact I-70, I-64, I-69 and I-65. Some freezing rain/sleet will also be possible across West Virginia.

During the day Wednesday, the storm will continue to lift northeast into Virginia and will drag colder air behind it. Snow will be a problem from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania with even a few snow showers wrapping behind the storm as far south as the Tennessee Valley.

With regards to snowfall amounts, I am feeling more confident that a band of up to 6" or more is possible with this storm system but I remain unconfident on pinning it down exactly. However, it does look more likely that a wide swath of 2"-4" will streak out from northeast Oklahoma, across the Ozarks and into the Ohio Valley. It is within this swath that a higher accumulation band is expected but it will be highly dependant on the exact track of the storm center itself.

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Watch a video time series of this storms forecast progression
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Christmas Day Storm To Watch

2012-12-21T11:16:00.002-06:00

A busty weather pattern is setting up for the eastern U.S. for the Christmas week and even up through New Year's Day. A large storm sytem that brought several inches of snow from the Rockies to the Midwest and nw the Great Lakes will be exiting the Northeast by Saturday morning. However it will still leave behind lake effect snow bands in its wake across the eastern Great Lakes.

Otherwise, it will be much quieter for just a couple of days. By late Saturday, yet another wave will spin up out of southeastern Colorado. This wave will travel into north Texas on Sunday and begin spreading clouds and a few rain showers into the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. It time for midnight church services, some of these rain showers will become snow showers along and north of I-70 from near St. Louis to Indianapolis. This storm system will likely not be that strong and will only provide for light snow accumulations through Christmas Day from the Ohio Valley into portions of New England.

The BIGGER storm of note will be brewing up on Christmas Day over Texas. It will begin spread wave of rains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tenessee Valley on Christmas Day. Towards Christmas Day evening, this storm will begin to intensify as upper level energy spins out of the southern Rokies and is
incorporated into it. This will allow for colder air to be pulled southward on the backside of the storm allowing for rain to change over to snow from the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma into Missouri. Snow is possible, Christmas Day evening from Witchita Falls, TX-Oklahoma City, OK-Tulsa, OK-Fayetteville, AR-Springfield, MO.

During the late evening hours, Christmas Day, the storm will be lifting into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley and as it does it will send warm, moist and somewhat unstable air northward. A threat for strong and possibly severe storms will be possible over Mississippi and Alabama. The storm will lift into the Ohio Valley on the 26th and allow for the snow to spread eastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, western Ohio Valley and the Mid-South during the early morning hours. After a cold front sweeps eastward, even a few lingering rain showers could change over to some snow showers or flurries as far south and east as Huntsville, Alabama.

The best chances of seeing significant accumulating snowfall with this storm, at this time, appears from the Ozarks through southern Illinois/Indiana. Too early, still, to put numbers to this storm but accumulations of 4 or more inches are possible.

Watch a video time series of this storms forecast progression
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European Advertising the Nearly Perfect Set Up for Midwest White Christmas

2012-12-19T10:20:00.002-06:00

ECMWF Forecast Midday Chrstmas Day

If you live in the mid section of the country and are hoping for a white Christmas then the model you hope is correct is the traditionally reliable ECMWF (European). All the major long range models are indicating that another rather large storm system will be coming together out of the southern Rockies on Christmas Eve. Continued.........
They differ though on the specifics, especially the strength and location of the storm itself. However, I thought I would help give you some hope of the possibility of seeing snow on Christmas Day.

ECMWF Snowcover Forecast Christmas Day

Dreaming of a White Christmas? Christmas Snow Outlook

2012-12-18T10:57:00.002-06:00

If you are dreaming of a white Christmas you may be in luck. Two large snow producing systems plus arriving arctic air will provide for a likely large area of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. The first storm will be delivering abundant snowfall from the mountains of Nevada into the Rockies and then through the Plains and into the Great Lakes, today through early Friday. In addition, it brings down a piece of arctic air that will help to keep much of the snow around this week. (Watch a video of the evolution of this 1st system)

A second system, will be spinning out of the southern Rockies late this weekend and will roll into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Christmas Day. It will deliver another round of snow across many of the same locations as storm 1 does plus additional a bit further south and east. As of now, it appears snow will fall during a part of Christmas Day in such cities as: Des Moines, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis and Dayton. Plus it appears snow will fall across both the Ozarks and Appalachians. -->

Big Storm Draws Down Cold and Delievers Snow

2012-12-17T11:28:00.000-06:00

A big winter storm will roll out of the Pacific NW and into the Rockies through Tuesday. As it does it will bring abundant snowfall to the western mountains with accumulations likely to be measured by the foot. The storm will pull into the center of the nation, Wednesday, where it will strengthen. It will track through Missouri and into the Great Lakes and as it does it will draw down a sharp shot of arctic cold behind it plus spread moderate to heavy snow from Kansas to Michigan. Some spots will receive in excess of 6" from Iowa into Wisconsin.
Stay tuned to the Doppler Dale Bader Facebook page for further weather updates.

Unsettled Through Christmas & a Turn To Much Colder, Too

2012-12-15T20:56:00.001-06:00

Watching several different storm systems over the next 7 day period, just a few of the several we will see in this unsettled pattern that will continue to remain through New Year’s Day. The first storm system is associated with a frontal boundary that will slide through the Valley and then weaken overnight. It will be the boundary for which several waves energy will pass and each will allow for showers and even a few thunderstorms to develop and spread across the TN Valley.

Several rounds of rain are expected on Sunday with a period likely in the early morning hours and again later in the day. Yet more rainfall is likely through Monday morning as finally, a last piece of energy associated with this storm system moves into and through the TN Valley. It will also drag a weak cold front through that will clear the rain out of the Valley for a few days. In total, some of the rainfall could be heavy and rainfall amounts of 0.75” to 1.25” are possible.

Little in the way of cooling is expected behind this frontal system. Highs on Tuesday will still remain above normal and in the upper 50s. By Wednesday, our next storm system we will be tracking will be winding up across the Colorado Rockies. In its advance, it will allow winds will begin to shift back towards the south and in turn temperatures will rebound back into the lower 60s. This storm system will be one we will notice, for sure.

By Thursday, this storm system will be moving into the Mississippi Valley and then the TN Valley. It will bring with it another round of showers and thunderstorms and then MUCH COLDER air will follow. The storm system will likely drag down the coldest air of the season, to date, to the region. It will also bring the season’s first snowfall as far south as the Ohio River.

Full video animation of forecast map click here

Finally, A Feel More Like December

2012-12-06T16:29:00.003-06:00

It has been quite a warm start to December for much of the eastern half of the nation but finally some change is on the way. A strong cold front will be dropping into the northern Rockies over the next 24-hours and it will continue to quickly drop east-southeast through the weekend. In its advance, it will remain quite mild but it will also moisten up as southerly winds draw Gulf moisture northward.

On Saturday, the upper level support that will help drive this system will help to begin triggering the first area of precipitation, snow, across much of MT/ID in the morning and spreading into ND and NW MN through the day. As the day wears on, too, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop along the cold front from the southern Plains northward into Iowa. The strongest storms will be confined to the southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The entire storm system will progress eastward on Sunday with snow likely from the High Plains of KS/NE/CO northeastward into the northern Great Lakes and rain further south along the cold front. Again, some strong storms are possible, mainly south of the Ohio River.

Monday, the system pushes to the Atlantic coast with storms pushing into the Southeast with some snow possible into portions of the Ohio Valley. This storm will only bring a short lived as the pattern will become very active. An active pattern is expected with storms digging into the West (Pacific Coast) and then gradually moving eastward up through Christmas. This will bring the potential for several locations to see a threat for snow before Christmas but it is definitely WAY TO EARLY to begin predicting White Christmases for anyone specifically. Just be ready for a wild ride for the next 2 to 3 weeks!
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The Perfect Storm Brewing? Damaging Winds, Flooding Rains, Coastal Storm Surge and Heavy SNOW

2012-10-26T18:40:00.003-05:00

I briefly eluded, earlier this week, the possibility that Hurricane Sandy could become a concern for the East Coast of the United States and now I am convinced that this will be the case. Sandy, still a hurricane as of 5pm ET (10/26) with minimal hurricane force winds of 75 mph. She is moving to the north at 7 mph and the minimum central pressure is rising based on hurricane hunter observations. This is good as it shows Sandy is beginning to weaken but don't let that fool you as she is still going to provide for quite a punch.

Model Forecast Tracks for Sandy

Over the next couple of days, Sandy will track to the north-northeast in response to an approaching trough and cold front over the eastern half of the U.S. She will predominately hold the strength of a category 1 hurricane but may briefly weaken into a strong tropical storm. That means winds will be generally between 65 to 80 mph. As a result of this track, the worst of the weather, strongest winds and heaviest rains, will remain just off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend.

Model Forecast of Potential Storm Surge

That will change as we head into Monday. At that time, Sandy will be drawn westerward into the base of the trough and she will merge with a piece of secondary energy diving southeastward out of Canada. This is when Sandy will morph into a potential PERFECT STORM with winds of 70-90 mph, flooding rains and a coatal storm surge of more than 6 feet whipping the coast. The precise track of Sandy will determine the exact location of the worst storm surge. As of today, the track is likely to cross southern New Jersey and head inland into Pennsylvania. This would push the worst surge up to Long Island back into the Hudson River basin and northern New Jersey.

Additionally, some heavy, early season snow is possible across the Appalachians of West Virginia and Pennsylvania with the potential for snowfall in excess of 12".

Tropical Storm Sandy Taking Aim on Jamaica

2012-10-23T13:52:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Sandy is lifting northward out of the southern Caribbean Sea and is on course for a direct fly over of the island of Jamaica, Wednesday. As of 2 pm ET (10/23), Sandy was located about 275 miles SSS of Kingston, Jamaica and was moving to the NNE (20 degrees) at 5 mph. Hurricane hunter observations indicated a minimum central pressure down to 993 mb (29.32") and a maximum sustained wind of 50 mph.

Forecast guidance indicates that Sandy will likely begin to lift northward a bit quicker over the next 24 hours allowing the center of the storm to cross the island of Jamaica during the afternoon hours,
Wednesday and around midnight Thursday, cross the southeastern coast of Cuba. In addition, forecast guidance indicates that Sand will continue to strengthen, too, and the NHC is forecasting Sandy to be a category 1 hurricane when it makes landfall in both Jamaica and Cuba. I; however, believe that Sandy will likely remain a strong tropical storm with winds 65 to 70 mph, just below hurricane strength.

Either way, the main threat of Sandy will be very heavy rainfall of 6" of more possible for Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola and that could lead to mud slides.

Sandy is expected to continue a northward movement through the end of the week, making its way into the Bahamas by Friday.

Obviously, this track will have a high impact on cruise travel. At the time of this blog post cruise lines still had not announced any changes to planned vacations; however, that will likely change.

Beyond Friday, there are quesions regarding Sandy's track and it is highly dependent on an approaching trough over the central U.S. that wants to head east. As long as the trough continues to push eastward it will end up pushing Sandy into the open Atlantic. However, if it would stall or slow down a continued northward track would take place and that could lead Sandy into the eastern U.S. coast. I will keep close tabs on this possibility over the next several days.
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Tropical Storm Sandy

2012-10-22T19:05:00.002-05:00

As I eluded to last week, I was concerned about the possibility of the tropics in the Gulf/Caribbean region heating back up. Earlier today, a tropical depression officially formed in the southern Caribbean Sea. That depression is now a Tropical Storm, Sandy, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

As of 5pm EDT, hurricane hunters located a circulation with a minimum pressure of 998 mb (29.47") about 385 miles SSW of Kingston, Jamaica. The movement is nearly stationary; however, it is expected to begin to slowly drift northward over the next 48 hours. As we head into late week, a strong cold front will be dropping southeast out of the center of the nation and this will aid in deflecting/pushing Sandy northeast-east with an expected track that would take the center of circulation over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas.

Regarding strength, I anticipate that Sandy will slowly increase intensity and by the time it reaches the Jamaica would likely be a strong tropical storm. Crossing the island and then crossing Cuba will weaken her some but still remaining a tropical storm. Sandy will likely try to regain strength as it moves into the Bahamas.

Folks living in Florida still need to stay weather aware. If the approaching front slows it actually could help direct Sandy more northward and towards the Floridian peninsula.

Winds Kicked Up Plains Dust and Carried It Into the Southeast

2012-10-19T19:41:00.000-05:00

For those living in the northern half of Alabama, much of Mississippi and southern Tennessee you may have noticed it was quite hazy looking. It may have also be a bit tough for you to breath at times. This would not have been what you normally would have expected behind a refreshing cold front as the northwest winds would typically clear out pollutants and haze leaving behind crisp blue sky.

But what you were seeing and even possibly tasting was in fact dust that was kicked up on Thursday, 10/18, across the Plains and blown southeastward into the Southeastern U.S. The dust was easily kicked up as farm fields had been recently harvested and plowed and conditions have continued to be dry. Then, mix in a strong storm system with strong, gusty winds and you have a dust storm. The dust was so thick on Thursday, at times, that interstate I-35 had to be closed in Oklahoma.

The dust should continue to filter out as it moves further east into Saturday.
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Tropics Not Dead Yet: Beware Gulf Coast Next Week

2012-10-18T20:13:00.003-05:00

Since August, it has been pretty quiet in the tropics with regards to the U.S mainland and the Gulf of Mexico; however, that appears ready to change. A ridge that is currently over the eastern Pacific will be shifting eastward into next week and will be center over the central Caribbean sea by late next week. As it does, it is very possible that an area of low pressure will develop and form into a tropical system in the Caribbean sea. Several models are now picking up on this possibility. If you live any where along the Gulf of Mexico coast to the Atlantic coast of Florida you need to stay weather aware over the next week. I will keep my eyes on the situation, too, and provide updates.
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Winter 2012-2013 City Snowfall Forecasts

2012-10-03T20:42:00.001-05:00

Here it is! Every year the one forecast I am asked for the most is "How Much Snow Will I Get?". So, here is the forecast you are asking for. I am providing the break down forecast by regions for key cities for the forecast snowfall for the winter of 2012-2013 (October-April). When you look at the tables you will see the city name followed by the forecast snowfall for this winter with the percent difference from normal in parentheses. Use the percent difference from normal to help figure above and below normal classification. I use this to decide:
<80%: Much Below Normal
80%-89%: Below Normal
90%-110%: Near Normal
111%-120%: Above Normal
>120%: Much Above Normal

Here are the regional forecast from East to West across the Nation

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Strong Cold Front = 1st Snows MT-Dakotas-MN-WI

2012-10-01T20:45:00.002-05:00

AccuWeather Image

A strong cold front will be pushing its way southward out of the Plains of Canada and into Montana, Tuesday. A developing low in southeastern Wyoming will help add additional lift and moisture into the cold air following the front to allow for snowfall.

The snowfall will spread eastward into North Dakota and western South Dakota impacting Grand Forks, Fargo and Rapid City late on Wednesday and into Thursday. The snow pushes even further east through upstate Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late Thursday into Friday morning.

Behind the snow and the cold front a sharp shot of cold air will follow with temperatures falling into 20s. A few spots may reach into the teens across Montana and western North Dakota. The front will reach the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and southeast Texas on Saturday. By Sunday it will exit the East Coast and Florida.

Departure from Normal Morning Temperature Forecast (SUN, 10/7/12)

Along the front, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley (FRI) to the Tennessee Valley/Southeast (SAT) and Florida on Sunday. Behind the front, the cold air will continue to sink southward. Widespread frost could occur from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley this weekend with sub freezing temperatures possible in spots, too. Morning temperatures into the 50s will even be possible as far south as the Houston metro area and along the Gulf Coast.
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Official Doppler Dale Winter Outlook 2012-13

2012-09-30T13:53:00.000-05:00

Back at the beginning of August I released my preliminary winter 2012-13 outlook. I am now releasing my official Winter 2012-13 forecast with a few tweaks. A few months ago, it appeared that we were heading towards a strong El Nino pattern for the winter season. Now, that appears NOT to be the case. Instead, neutral to weak El Nino conditions are now forecast. That does have implications on the forecast, most noticeably along the northern tier and Upper Midwest.

I have modified my analog years, too, and these now include the winter seasons of

2004-2005
2003-2004
1979-1980
1977-1978
1976-1977
1963-1964
1951-1952

Several of these seasons are pretty strong fits based on current and forecast trends with the winter of 1976-1977 the strongest. I have done a calculated blend of these analog years to comprise this years outlook.

In my preliminary outlook, I was forecasting temperatures to be slightly above normal from Washington to the U.P. of Michigan. Based on the fact the El Nino conditions will be weaker, the Slightly Above Normal temperatures have been squeezed to only encompass the Pacific Northwest. I am also increasing the coverage of the Slightly Below Normal temperatures to cover much of the eastern 1/2 of the U.S. I have also increased the area of Below Normal temperatures to encompass the Ohio Valley but I am forecasting the depth of the cold, with respect to normal, to not be as excessive.

With regards to snowfall, the biggest change to the forecast was in the northern tier, again. Snowfall will likely be near to a bit above normal for most locations from the Rockies eastward. I will provide a detailed breakdown of the snowfall forecast for several locations this week.

I will also provide a more detailed, site specific, breakdown to the temperature forecast later this week, too.

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Tate Farm Pumpkin Pik'n & North Alabma Forecast 9/29/2012: Heavy Rains Possible

2012-09-29T13:15:00.002-05:00

Pumpkin Pik'n Forecast: For the remainder of Saturday, a northerly breeze will help to dry the region out a bit. The cloud cover will also thin and some sunshine is expected. The afternoon temperature will be topping out around 77, at the farm.

On Sunday, an area of low pressure will be lifting northeast out of Texas and into Louisiana and Mississippi. It will bring with it a large shield of steady, occasionally heavy, rainfall. The rainfall will be spreading northeastward, too, and will enter into central Alabama during the late morning hours and then making it into northern Alabama late Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening.

The rain will continue into Monday with some periods being heavy. The entire process will be slow as the low lifts into northwest Alabama by Monday evening. Showers are even possible still into Tuesday.

Total rainfall amounts from Sunday afternoon through midnight Tuesday: 1.25" to 1.75"