tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55169002303330645942024-11-08T09:15:41.634-06:00A Minnesota based economist with a broad range of interests and ideas.Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-26521643718350991262020-09-27T21:59:00.010-05:002020-10-17T12:27:07.808-05:00

The newest synonym for money printing in the Fed's ever-expanding Mad Libs book is average inflation targeting. Whereas prior to their August 27 announcement, the Federal Reserve had a hard stop when inflation hit 2.00%. Now the Fed is allowing itself to run "hot" or over 2% for a time until the average is 2%. A single read of inflation over 2% will not trigger a rate hike. What that means for

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13459941265534247255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-25642687012631245682019-07-21T20:19:00.002-05:002019-07-21T20:19:49.349-05:00

As I write this the CME FedWatch Tool has an 80% chance of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate bounds down 25bps to a 200-225 range from its current range of 225-250. There is another 20% chance that they cut even more by 50bps. Taking my calculator, it is telling me we have a 0% change of leaving rates as-is. A zero percent change we don't cut rates with the economy booming? I

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-10241103237921267542012-06-10T23:17:00.001-05:002012-06-11T00:14:53.790-05:00

Right now, and probably for the last year or so the biggest black eye for Europe and even the world economy has been Greece. I think, along with many others, that Greece will eventually leave the Euro monetary union. That is no longer the question being asked, how they leave is the hard part. As to how Greece leaves the Eurozone I look to Brazil and it's Real Plan from 1994 for inspiration.

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13459941265534247255noreply@blogger.com0Minneapolis, MN, USA44.949249266611531 -93.295898437543.520347766611529 -95.8227539375 46.378150766611533 -90.7690429375tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-19989470224419326712012-02-27T11:05:00.001-06:002012-02-27T11:05:35.145-06:00

Coming later this week I will compile the first release of the Minnesota Manufacturing Inventories Index (MMII). This will be an aggregate inventory of United States manufactures current holdings. Hopefully this statistic will provide some insight as to how the US manufactures are doing and also the economy as a whole. The statistic release will go back to pre-2008 financial crisis level so the

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13459941265534247255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-53924761854953727912011-11-08T22:36:00.001-06:002011-11-08T22:36:54.210-06:00

So I haven't had a blog post since school started because I have been very busy with my last year here at the University of Minnesota. Right now I am deep into research on the trade between the US and EU in Large Civil Aircraft (interesting right!) Well I think so. I will put up my results in a shorten post but also my final paper as well. Hopefully you will find it as interesting as I do. Quick

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13459941265534247255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-14274457502069754972011-08-17T20:52:00.001-05:002011-08-17T20:53:29.255-05:00

A few weeks ago the rating agency, Standard & Poors downgraded the United States' credit rating from perfect triple-A to AA+. The effects of this downgrade were very serious as the markets reacted negatively towards the news and interest rates in the US are expected to go higher in the near future. Fitch rating agency reaffirmed on Tuesday that in their mind the United States has no

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-6642981004429430932011-07-28T18:06:00.000-05:002011-07-28T18:06:22.984-05:00

This post will be brief If the politicians can't come to a decision on the debt ceiling the United States will default and the stock market will fall at levels on par with 2008. I personally am going 100% cash in my United States portfolio but maintaining my Asia and European positions. This situation is very scary in that it is 100% preventable, all congress has to do is raise the ceiling.

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-36252781340381934082011-07-28T17:58:00.000-05:002011-07-28T17:58:37.996-05:00

Wal-Mart is an engine that shows no sign in slowing up. Now that it has swallowed up all the Mom and Pop stores it is looking for its next target to take down. It has zeroed in on dollar stores like Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR). Wal-Mart has now opened up 3 Wal-Mart Express stores near its headquarter in Bentonville, Arkansas that look to compete directly with the dollar stores.

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-13947365493353992872011-06-29T22:34:00.000-05:002011-06-29T22:34:31.577-05:00

The Unemployment numbers in the United States have remained high for 2 years and all the stimulus spending have not been able to bring it down. While the unemployment rate has always been known to economist as a trailing statistic to GDP it is still not tolerated to be this high by the American public for this long. Looking more closely at the numbers we can see that the bottom three industries

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-58893770258389691012011-06-20T01:01:00.000-05:002011-06-20T01:01:30.979-05:00

Big news this week: New federal funds rate comes out in the United States on Wednesday. Expected to be between 0 to 0.25% change. I don't expect it to change much. The rate is already very low however the Feds might want to keep money flowing between banks to avoid another Lehman Brothers crisis where the banks stop lending to each other. It is still way to early to worry about controlling

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-16499096189677058542011-06-17T20:25:00.000-05:002011-06-17T20:25:05.292-05:00

Last week, talks between member nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were described as the worst ever as the Saudi representative commented. The group could not come together and set a target production for the future. Could a breakup of OPEC be in the future? OPEC is a cartel no matter how much they hate being called one. They limit the production of crude oil to

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-47523468047740433622011-06-13T01:38:00.000-05:002011-06-13T01:38:20.867-05:00

A look back at last week: Last week the market as a whole was sold off and lost about 1.7%. For my picks I was bullish on DE and POT while bearish on LCC. DE beat the street and stayed flat due to a rise in the price of corn. US supply of corn came out this week and my prediction for a tight supply was right, corn prices shot up on flooding concerns. POT faired similarly and was flat on the week.

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0Carlos, MN, USA45.935239387105533 -95.31032960595700845.891684887105534 -95.372694605957008 45.978793887105532 -95.247964605957009tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-86418627037214480462011-06-06T01:01:00.001-05:002011-06-06T01:29:53.192-05:00

Recap of last week. My picks were WY up SI up and PKN down and I am excited to report I was three for three. Also I was especially excited when MSNBC's Jim Craemer endorsed WY on his show Mad Money, good to see Jim is taking tips from my blog. For the week of June 6th to the 10th. Employment data came out last week for the month of May and it wasn't great. Unemployment ticked up to 9.1% and the

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-83667941343239668602011-06-03T00:39:00.001-05:002011-06-03T13:56:30.946-05:00

Recently all the talk has been about the United States reaching their $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. Moody's rating agency just announced today that the Aaa rating of the US's short term credit would be under review if no significant improvement had been made in reducing spending or raising the debt ceiling by this July. The government of the US is gridlocked with the conservatives stressing

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-50800466894121780882011-05-31T00:27:00.000-05:002011-05-31T00:27:25.729-05:00

So I think I am going to try something new. I will be covering major events coming up in the week and making my predictions on what the economy will do in the next 5 days (4 this week because of the Memorial Day holiday in the US). This week of May 30 to June 3. The first thing I would like to talk about is Germany's goal to abandon nuclear power by 2022. This is a very significant announcement

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-68845098178607817432011-05-14T00:56:00.001-05:002011-05-14T00:58:47.109-05:00

I decided my summer project will be to start a blog. After trying to sign up for one I realized that I already have one. The posts from 2008 are from my senior social studies class. It was kind of interesting to see my opinions then and how they have changed now. Blog posts after this one will be strictly about economic issues, maybe a few fun ones but they will all relate back to econ. What I

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-18135914221632756572008-01-04T08:39:00.001-06:002008-01-08T08:18:32.741-06:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses/index.htmlSenator Barack Obama for the Democrats and the New Mexico Governor Mike Huckabee for the Republicans came out on top at the Iowa Caucuses. Obama beat out his competition with 38% of the vote while 2nd for the Democrats was John Edwards with 30% and Hillary Clinton with 29%. The Democrats are voting for either change or

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-32182448400857231612007-11-30T08:04:00.000-06:002007-11-30T08:28:57.084-06:00

Article from http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/ Presidential hopeful Barack Obama always has nasty things to say when it comes to Hillary Clinton. But lately Obama has been complementing her husband Bill Clinton. He's even said there is a spot for Bill in his cabinet if elected President. Obama has been attacking Hillary about lack of experience and the only experience she has

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-34332460194347516172007-11-16T08:27:00.000-06:002007-11-16T08:44:54.550-06:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/law/11/15/bonds.indicted/index.html Barry Bonds the current holder of the all time home runs ever and in a single season has be indicted on charges of perjury. In 2003 Bonds said he had never knowingly taken performance enhancing drugs. Now the grand jury doesn't believe him and has him booked under 4 counts of perjury and 1 count of obstruction of

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-57222889398129260202007-10-31T08:29:00.000-05:002007-10-31T09:15:23.803-05:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/10/30/iraq.main/index.htmlOctober has been the best month fro troops since March 2006 when 31 Americans died. So far in October 37 Americans have died. Military officials don't want to declare victory just yet, fearing it could get worse again. But wait, didn't we already declare "Mission Accomplished"? Also good news is that the Iraqi civilian

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-60350441779191891272007-10-28T17:53:00.000-05:002007-10-28T19:07:15.633-05:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/10/28/israel.gaza/index.html?iref=mpstoryview In order to prevent rocket attacks from Hamas militants the Israeli Government is restricting oil shipments to Gaza. The Palestinian human rights group fears this will create a humanitarian crisis and is appealing the decision to the Israeli Supreme Court. The power plant in Gaza runs on fuel so

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-56953574781993992252007-10-21T18:19:00.000-05:002007-10-21T19:39:18.404-05:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/10/18/pakistan.bhutto/index.html#cnnSTCText The ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto made her return to Pakistan last week after leaving in self imposed exile for eight years. Huge crowds of people greeted her when she arrived. She vows to return to power and restore democracy to Pakistan and remove its image as a safe zone for

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-36530891177496584572007-10-15T07:56:00.000-05:002007-10-15T08:22:18.703-05:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/12/nobel.gore/index.html#cnnSTCTextFor his work on informing all of us has earned Al Gore and some of his associates the Nobel Peace Prize. I think Gore is very deserving of this award, he has raised the awareness of global warming with no personal gain from doing it. He donated half of the $1.5 million reward to raising awareness even more. Gore

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-12993755229878272722007-10-05T07:59:00.000-05:002007-10-05T08:26:37.127-05:00

Article from http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/10/04/space.race.ap/index.html50 years after NASA was first created during a time when a heated space race between the United States and the Soviets a new one is warming up. A NASA administrator said that China will most likely be able to put a man on the moon before the U.S. could get back. NASA's goal is to put a man on the moon by 2020. China

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5516900230333064594.post-68211280020036645182007-09-28T08:16:00.000-05:002007-09-28T08:34:33.588-05:00

Article from, http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/09/28/myanmar.protests/index.htmlChaos erupted in Myanmar, commonly known as Burma after months of protest of their militaristic government. The military started using deadly force to disperse crowds and reports that as many as 35 bodies were already lined up in the streets with people praying over them. The anti-government protests were

Doug Mantheihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14438850145823434466noreply@blogger.com0