Dow Live Report

Dow and global market drop expected.

elmaco — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 16:22:42 +0000

Once again, the Dow inches toward the 10′ milestone. The week in decline is expected.

Those who follow us, will have noticed our tweets about premature optimism throughout this year.

Are you ready for US GDP at 1.4%?

elmaco — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 19:33:43 +0000

The last two months have been a bit of a rollecoaster ride. Ok, maybe not a ride with huge ups and downs but still.. the trend has been shifting from day to day. The sum of it, though, is that we are backtracking again. It is only 10 days ago that we closed above the 10,700 mark.

The markets have been trying to breathe life into the Dow supported by positive corporate reports but at the same time, the general economic news and forecasts are anything but upbeat. As we have been proposing for quite a while now, the optimism that was broadcast before summer was premature.

If you look beyond the national borders, the outlook is in many places even gloomier for the fall and winter of 2010.

Trading on hope (specially if it is someone elses hope) is never a good idea. If you trade, do so safely and capitalize on the current turbulence. We propose that news and the big, national/regional fundamental numbers will have a more marked effect on the direction of the Dow and other markets, that corporate gains.

Little has been said about the state of the European Union after the bailouts earlier this year but EU has more troubles which we expect to surface during fall 2010.

Conference Board indicates Lower Consumer Confidence

elmaco — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 17:37:25 +0000

The private research group Conference Board has pointed to a lower consumer confidence index with as much as 4 percent compared to June this year.

This is the second month that consumer confidence index falls. June showed around a 9 percent drop.

Futures were high this morning but current trading is once again sideways as the market weighs in the fact that the consumer – which means the source of all economy – is not too happy about what the future (6 months) might look like on the job market.mm

Markets are looking stronger this week

elmaco — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 12:42:26 +0000

Futures are up and we expect Dow Jones to open with an extension of the rally we have seen these last market days. Do we gain another 100 points?

There are a lot of indicators supporting a gain with US housing data lifting most Asian markets. European markets are also up. The S&P index is above it’s 200 day average and there are a host of earning reports due such as US Steel, Lockheed, Lexmark, Cit Group, DreamWorks and several others.

Keep an eye on the July consumer confidence report offered by Reuters and Michigan University that is due on Friday.

Seems like a Bull week

Microsoft report lifts Asian friday markets

elmaco — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 08:27:15 +0000

Asian markets ended the week up helped by the Microsoft report coming in at 51 cents per share which is better than analyst projections at 46 cents per share. Sales amounted to 16 billion dollars.

High demand for computers and Microsoft products fuels the good figures but Microsoft still battles for a foothold in the online search market. The current involvement with Yahoo has still to produce results, something that may improve Microsoft´s standing even further by end of 2010.

On the other end we find Amazon who reports a severe profit hit as expenses rise by 40%.

Obama turns Wall Street reform bill into law

elmaco — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 11:04:26 +0000

US President Obama signed the Wall Street reform bill into law on Wednesday. The Wall Street reform now provides regulators with a effective waeapon against the biggest financial groups that may jeopardize the inner workings of our financial systems. These systems loose their true responsiveness when affected by concentrated financial power. In short, the current financial system can be, and is being, manipulated.

What President Obama has now put into place establishes the right of regulators to affect and stop for example massive mergers. During the ceremony in Washington, President Obama said: “Because of this law, the American people will never again be asked to foot the bill for Wall Street’s mistakes. There will be no more taxpayer-funded bailouts. Period.”

It is about time this kind of instrument is installed in the US – many nations in Europe have had similar financial and legislative tools in place for a long time. This has of course not stopped the whole of EU from being hijacked by faltering nations and in effect, the EU taxpayer is footing the extensive bailouts within their community. However, keep in mind that these bailouts do not have much to do with the machinery of stock trading, such as the Wall Street problem.

Considering the global impact that Dow Jones Industrial and the other US markets have, we hope the Wall Street Reform bill now in effect will curb at least the most offensive Wall Street manipulations.

Here´s the official Wall Street reform presentation video

How will the markets react? Whichever way they go, this has already been discounted, and will not be the fundamental reason for movement.

Bernanke calls financial future unclear

elmaco — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 18:57:25 +0000

Wednesday: In a testimony to Congress, Ben Bernanke said that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain”. If you had any doubts that the “recovery” is not doing well, the Fed Chairman with this and other signal mantains a unusually cautious tone regarding the state of the economic recovery process.

Dow Jones took a marked turn down and once again, the magic 10,000 is under threat. Those who follow our Twitter channel will hopefully have benefitted from our tweet Monday on playing the futures.

Follow Asia closely the rest of the week. Our position is further turbulence coming up.

Weak Dow opening on mixed global markets?

elmaco — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 09:20:31 +0000

Last week limped along as per our expectations but seems to have surprised quite a lot of traders. Once again, we hover dangerously around the 10.000 mark with weak reports coming in somewhat under projected results.

On Monday Asia continued backtracking while European markets a couple of hours into trading are treading water around the flatline mark, some slightly up.

With the disappointing numbers from BAC, GE and Citigroup, China continuing to slow down and the EU woes of membership credits still clouding the skies.. the coming weeks may be very turbulent. Good openings for the short traders.

If the US continues to go sideways, China may see fit to further downgrade the US credit rating. Sound too harsh? Time will tell.