Down 'N Dirty Sports

NFL Championship Weekend Review

2012-01-25T12:36:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Well, I was wrong only for the second time this post-season. Sunday was a fairly frustrating day and I didn't even have my team involved.

First, the Pats/Ravens game looked perfect. They were within a score of each other the entire game, and the halftime total was on pace to go over in the teaser. However, a stupid attempted fourth down by the Ravens and a missed field goal at the end cost us the tease by a half point. Brady uncharacteristically threw two interceptions in the second half and couldn't convert a red zone possession into a touchdown. Joe Flacco added a second half interception and couldn't lead the Ravens to a touchdown after earning a short field when recovering a fumble on a kickoff.

So as you can tell, everything had to go perfectly wrong in this game. Brady got completely outplayed and posted his lowest passer-rating since the Pats 2009 Wild Card loss to the Ravens.

The 49ers/Giants game went relatively how I expected. I was hoping to see more from the 49ers' receivers due to the mediocrity of the Giants secondary; however, it was just Vernon Davis that torched the secondary. The 49ers defense was unable to contain Victor Cruz, and surprisingly, Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw had 70 yards on 20 carries, which is decent considering San Fran's run defense is superb. However, Bradshaw had six catches for 50 yards, including a 30-yarder.

The first turning point in the game was when Kyle Williams let a punt bounce and hit him in the leg. Apparently, Williams didn't know the ball hit him, made no attempt at a recovery, and the Giants recovered. On a short field, the Giants converted two third-downs on their way to scoring the go-ahead touchdown. San Fran did respond, but had to settle for a field goal after getting inside the 10-yard-line. Both teams traded punts for the rest of regulation and into overtime.

After the Giants advanced the ball just passed midfield, the 49er defense held strong and forced another punt. Kyle Williams, doing his best to screw his team over, had a five-yard return before once again being the cause of a turnover. The Giants were able to play it safe, get a little closer, and Lawrence Tynes once again kicked the Giants into a Super Bowl match-up with the New England Patriots.

The Giants won the game outright, which I said I wouldn't be surprised if they did. The Giants obviously covered the tease, but I was still disappointed that I picked San Fran, and in my opinion, they should have won and covered the two. Well, at least the games were eventful.

Disappointing fact: The Ravens (my girlfriend and friends' team) and Jets (my team) have lost in the AFC Championship game each of the last four seasons. Ravens '08, '11 - Jets '09, '10

I don't know about you, but I didn't want this Super Bowl. However, it should at least be an exciting one with a lot of story-lines.

Rodgers That

NFL Championship Weekend

2012-01-22T11:26:00.004-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Well, we're down to the Final Four and while many could have predicted the AFC's participants before the season started, not many people had the 49ers and Giants in mind to be the NFC's final two participants.

The spreads for both games have been moving since they were first released last week. However, I don't think it has changed my opinion on them. If you aren't listening to me by now, you probably never will. However, if you are, you are experiencing quite a successful post-season thus far. I am 7-1 ATS, including 4-0 this past weekend.

I'll admit I was having a tough time reading the games when the lines were first released. I have a better feel now, and you'll find my thoughts below.

Early Game
(2) Baltimore Ravens (+7) at (1) New England Patriots

This is clearly a game between two polar opposites. The Ravens love to play defense, and the Pats love to play offense. However, the Patriots put together a very complete game last week in their 45-10 drubbing of the Denver Broncos. The Ravens didn't look very good on offense against the Texans second-ranked defense, but didn't commit any penalties or turnovers. Baltimore should obvious find more success against an abysmal New England defense, but their lack of execution leaves me wanting more.

I think Ravens fans need to recognize a lack of execution and stop putting the sole blame for the offensive woes on O-Coordinator Cam Cameron. If the Ravens can execute today, the Pats will struggle to stop them due to their balance. With a top running back and receivers that can stretch the field, we will likely see an offensive battle in this game. I think there is no question that the Ravens should cover, pending a crazy amount of turnovers, penalties, or injuries (of course), but coming away with a trip to Indianapolis will solely rely on the offensive execution.

Of course, if the Ravens can't stop the unique combination of Welker and Gronkowski, it will take at least 30 points to beat Brady and the Pats. However, I have faith that Baltimore can at least slow down Brady. The key to stopping Brady is getting pressure with the front four. If the Ravens can effectively rush Brady with their d-line and drop seven into coverage, it will clog the passing lanes and should frustrate Brady. We've seen evidence of this against the Steelers this season and the Jets in the playoffs last season.

Unfortunately, I think the Patriots are too good on offense and their defense will step up in this big game. It should be a close one though, and it would not at all surprise me if Baltimore won outright.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 27 (+7)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2)

I'm much less confident on this game. I think that the 49ers will win, but if the Giants do, they'll win the Super Bowl. Both teams have very good defenses, but both offenses have played very well as of recent. In my opinion, the Giants are the hottest team in the playoffs, but the 49ers are the most complete team.

The Giants defensive line is the best I've ever seen. All of the players: Tuck, Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, etc. are all strong, athletic, and fast off the line. They are the reason the Giants are so successful. If they can't get pressure, any above average quarterback should be able to pick apart their mediocre secondary. However, the 49ers love to play physical and should give the Giants d-line all they can handle. San Fran likes to run the ball should have no problem using multiple tight end sets to help block.

There is nothing special about the 49ers offense. They like to methodically move the ball down the field, focusing on the run game. I see this game being decided by offense because both defenses should find success. I think Eli Manning is clearly the superior QB, but Alex Smith has been playing well and doesn't make many mistakes.

Like I said earlier, I think the 49ers will win, but wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pulled it out. I'm picking San Fran to cover, but the real play with this game is teasing the Giants to +8.5.

Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 23 (-2) New York Giants 20

Money teaser: 6.5-tease Ravens +13.5, OVER 43.5 (Bal/NE), Giants +8.5 (5 units)

Enjoy what should be another fantastic weekend of playoff football. Make sure you set your NFL Playoff Fantasy Challenge lineups!

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Sunday

2012-01-14T16:09:00.004-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) Houston Texans (+9) at (2) Baltimore Ravens

This is a very interesting game, and fortunately for the Ravens, they get to face a very talented Texans team whose without their starting quarterback and best defensive player. Even so, Houston was able to dominate last week against Cincinnati. I think the Texans will need to get their running game going if they want to have any success. Arian Foster and Ben Tate combined for 190 against a good Cincy defense, and they'll need to find their holes to open up the passing game for Yates. The Ravens typically feast on rookie quarterbacks, but they don't usually face rookies with such a strong supporting cast.

The Ravens offense will need to make sure they have a balanced attack and don't forget to get their best offensive player, Ray Rice, the touches he deserves. The Texans must pressure Joe Flacco and force him into check downs to make sure they don't get burned by Torrey Smith or Lee Evans. Stretching the defense will be a key for Ray Rice to find some running room.

I think if Ray Rice gets 17-23 carries and a few catches, the Ravens should be balanced enough to move the ball against Houston. While I don't see the Ravens shutting Houston down, unless Haloti Ngata and the Ravens defense can't contain Foster, I think Baltimore will pull this one out and makes their second AFC Championship game in four years. This will be a close one though.

Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 20 Houston Texans 16 (+9)

Late Game
(4) New York Giants (+8) at (1) Green Bay Packers

The Packers are, by record, the NFL's best team this season, and they were a let down against Kansas City away from going 16-0. This game is a rematch of a game in New York earlier this season. The game was before the Giants hit their stride, but they did keep the game close before losing by a field goal.

The Giants pass rush is what makes their defense so effective. They should be able to get pressure on Rodgers, and while he is a good scrambling QB, it will have some impact. New York's run defense is fairly irrelevant because the Packers don't run much, but they have to make sure they don't let Ryan Grant or James Starks break a long run. The Packers offensive effectiveness will be determined by the protection. If the Giants rush is ineffective, this game will probably turn into a blowout. However, like I said earlier, don't expect that to happen.

You can throw away the regular season statistics for the Giants offense because they are playing extremely well. They rushed for over 170 yards and Eli Manning threw three touchdowns in last week's blowout win against Atlanta. They should find success against a weak Packers defense. However, Green Bay's defense does have a knack for making big plays when it matters most, so expect them to come up with a big stop late in the game.

I think this will be an exciting game and the Giants should be able to stick with the Pack most of the way.

Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 30 New York Giants 23 (+8)

Enjoy what looks to be an awesome weekend of the Divisional Round Playoffs.

Rodgers That

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Saturday

2012-01-14T13:34:00.006-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Early Game
(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

This is a game between polar opposite teams. The 49ers are one of the few defensive teams left in the playoffs, and the best defensive team in the NFC. They face the one of the best offensive teams in the Saints. Drew Brees broke the single season record for passing yards, and the Saints are still sixth in the NFL in rushing.

San Fran is the underdog and they are playing at home. There is one key to this game for the San Fran offense: score touchdowns, not field goals. David Akers broke a ton of records this season with all of this field goals for the 49ers, but that won't fly today against the Saints. If Alex Smith can get his team in the endzone, they will definitely have a chance because of their defense. The key for the Saints defense is clearly to bend but not break, something they've done fairly well this season.

The 49ers defense has to take away the New Orleans running game. I know you would think they should focus on Brees, but the running game is something that Brees uses to be so successful. If the 49ers front four can limit the rushing attack, they should see some success in slowing down Brees. The Saints should come out with play action and assume that the 49ers defense will immediately respect the run.

I think this will be a close game at the end even if it's not throughout. The Saints will probably win because they are more experienced and come up with big plays at big times, but I like San Fran at home with the points.

Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 23 (+3.5)

Late Game
(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots (-13.5)

This is another game between two very different teams. The Patriots love to throw the ball and use that to open up the run game. The Broncos play decent defense and use a college-type option offense to run the ball well. The problem for the Broncos is they are extremely inexperienced and are about to play a team that is not injured or inconsistent on offense.

While I hate him, Tom Brady should shred this defense like he did in their regular season meeting in Denver. It took a little while for the Pats to get going, but when they did, Denver couldn't keep up with them. The problem with Denver falling behind is that they aren't built for huge comebacks. We saw them comeback down one or two possessions earlier this season, but the Pats won't let them stick around.

If Denver's defense wants to have any success they should rely on their front four or five to stop the run and devote everyone else into stopping the pass. Tom Brady will pick apart a blitz, so the most effective way to stop him is to clog to passing lanes and drop a ton of guys into zone. Brady's success is all about timing, so if you jam the receivers at the line or get into the passing lanes, he will have to adjust.

Regardless, I don't think it matters. I hate the Pats as much as anyone, and I think they are going to absolutely stomp the Broncos. Denver got lucky in their last game that it took Brady a while to get going and Denver's offense was functioning fairly well. However, they were kicking field goals and started turning the ball over. I think New England wins big, but I wouldn't be surprised if I got screwed by a backdoor cover by Tebow.

Prediction:
New England Patriots 44 (-13.5) Denver Broncos 17

Check back later today, tonight, or tomorrow morning for Sunday's picks.

Rodgers That

Tebow's Time is Up

2012-01-12T23:27:00.004-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Sorry for not posting my picks last week. I did tweet that I was picking the Giants, who covered easily with their win over Atlanta. I also picked Houston (win), Saints (win), and Pittsburgh (awful loss). I did post my picks through a video on YouTube, so hopefully you were able to catch that and go at least 3-1 last weekend.

Let's get to the hottest topic there is because everyone else is talking about it. Tebow. If you haven't heard me complain about him yet, get ready because it's about to come.

Tim Tebow is, in my soon-to-be professional opinion, an absolutely terrible quarterback. Please keep in mind: we aren't comparing him to me or you but to his peers. Let's start with a simple statistic that all young QBs are judged on: completion percentage. For example, Mark Sanchez is often criticized because his completion percentage isn't over 60 percent, the point where QBs are expected to be. Sanchez had a career high this season at 56.7 percent, while Tebow completed 50 percent or more in just four of the 14 games he started. That's awful, especially because if you watch him play it is evident that many of the throws he is way off on appear basic, short passes.

Before I continue, let me specify: Tim Tebow is an awful QUARTERBACK. He is a phenomenal athlete and a winner, the guy one the BCS National Championship with Florida in 2008 and the Sugar Bowl in 2009. He only lost one game each season. However, being an athlete and a college QB doesn't always translate in a successful NFL QB (note Michael Vick 2001-2006).

Now, another Tebow is unlikely to be successful in the long run is that I compare him to the Wildcat. The Wildcat package shocked the NFL, specifically the Patriots, and the Dolphins experienced a lot of success with it. However, soon other teams developed their own package and defenses wised up on how to defend it. Now, teams rarely use it and only do so in small amounts. Tebow has surprised the NFL with his ability to be fairly successful as an option quarterback in the NFL. However, other teams will bring in QBs with similar abilities and teams now have tape on how to stop Tebow (note 7-3 loss to Kansas City, one interception and 27.3 completion percentage). Tebow shocked the Steelers with his decent accuracy on deep throws, but now it appears that we've seen everything Tebow has to offer, and you should have success against Denver if you can shut down the Broncos rushing game with putting nine in the box.

Another thing that bothers me with the public's perception of Tim Tebow is how amazing he is at winning games for his team. What you all need to recognize is that the defense has played an incredibly large role in Denver's chances at staging a comeback. When Tebow brought the Broncos back in the fourth quarter against the Dolphins, Jets, Chargers and Bears, the defense did a great job and held those teams to 15 points or less to keep them in the game.

In conclusion: Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback. Tim Tebow is a good athlete and a winner. Tim Tebow will not be successful in the NFL by the 2013 season. Tim Tebow was not the first player to get on one knee and pray before, during, or after a game. Tim Tebow shouldn't get so much credit for Denver's wins. Tim Tebow will once again get destroyed by a(n unfortunately superior) New England team. (Remember, that just came from a Jets fan.)

Check back later as I get more into the NBA and college basketball. I'll also post my picks for the Divisional Round playoff games tomorrow.

Rodgers That

Happy New Year and Happy Week 17

2012-01-01T11:08:00.000-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

OK, the fantasy championships didn't go quite as expected. I came in second in one of them and I just got owned because everyone chose not to perform. I came in second in another one because my opponent got 20 points over his projection, had his kicker (Rob Bironas) get 15 points and Larry Fitzgerald and Matt Stafford both got double their projections. The only thing I could have done to win would have been to play Detroit defense over Tennessee. I figured Tennessee is a decent defense and Jacksonville's offense sucks. Of course the Jags put up 17 points and Detroit gave up 10 and scored a touchdown of their own.

The last league is ESPN.com and their fantasy playoffs are two rounds each. So I'm up 28 points and I'm really not concerned. The Saints have been playing great so I think Cam Newton won't score his usual 25-30 points and the only player on his team I'm worried about is MJD against Indy defense.

Well, now we move on to picks. This is always a tough week because certain teams have clinched everything so they bench their players. Other teams play their guys because they want to stay hot going into the playoffs. Other teams bench their slightly injured players because they have no chance at the playoffs so they don't want to worsen the situation. I have really leveled off from my hot start and have just been flirting with .500 most weeks; however, I did tie for the week this past week.

Was/Phi 9 I think Philly has clearly found their stride and will be determined to finish the season at .500
SF 10.5/Stl The 49ers are playing for a first-round bye and should destroy the most-likely Kellen Clemens-led Rams
Chi/Min 1 Two terrible teams, Minnesota at home is the safe pick
Det 3.5/GB It was just announced that Rodgers isn't active so this spread will probably jump... but Detroit wants to lock up the five seed
Car/NO 9 New Orleans has to pray the Rams win so they can get the two seed, so I think they'll play hard
Ten 1/Hou I know the Texans are locked into the three seed, but I think they'll want to knock Tennessee out of the playoffs
Ind/Jax 3.5 The Colts will play tough and keep it close but won't jeopardize their chance at the No. 1 pick
NYJ/Mia 3 The Jets are underdogs so I can't not take them because they are USUALLY good with their backs against the wall... wouldn't be surprised if this pushed though Jets SU
Buf/NE 10.5 The Pats are playing to lock up the one seed, they'll blow Buffalo out
TB/Atl 10.5 Atlanta will know whether or not they have anything to play for by game time, but Tampa is so terrible and the Falcons will want to correct all of the things that went wrong last week
Bal 1/Cin The Ravens play at the same time as the Pats and Steelers so they are still playing to lock up a bye
Pit 6.5/Cle The Steelers can pray for a Cincy win which would make Pittsburgh the two seed, and I think the Steelers win big here
SD/Oak 3 I'm digging the upet here because the Chargers definitely want to knock Oakland out, and San Diego typically plays well with no pressure SD SU
KC/Den 3.5 I like that extra half point but I actually like the Orton factor and I'm thinking another upset here KC SU
Sea/Ari 3 I think Seattle will keep it close if not win outright...
Dal/NYG 3 The Giants are just the better team at this point, I think they'll cover easy

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 13: 8-8 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 14: 9-6-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 15: 7-7-2 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 16: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Total: 132-98-9 ATS 167-72 SU

Bold Prediction: Jets make the playoffs? Haha, I can only pray... not impossible though: Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Oakland or Denver have to lose...

My favorite lines are SF -10.5, Philly -9, NE -10.5, Pitt -6.5, SD +3

Rodgers That

NFL Week 16 Picks and Fantasy Championships

2011-12-24T08:39:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Well, I hope you're ready for some Saturday football. Let's jump right into the picks and I'll talk about fantasy after them.

Oak/KC 2.5 The Chiefs are fighting for the slim playoff lives... I think they pull this one out
Den 3/Buf The Bills have to be upset at the way they are finishing a season that looked so promising... I'm sure they will get up to play Tebow and be a spoiler BUF SU
Jax/Ten 7 Two really bad games in a row for the Titans, but it shouldn't matter who starts at QB. However, if your rookie is playing well, why not start him?
Pit 16/Stl With Charlie Batch starting, I think the Rams can keep this game within two touchdowns
Ari/Cin 4 Everyone thinks this is a trap game for Cincinnati, but I think they will be prepared because a loss would be devastating to their playoff dreams
Mia/NE 9.5 Now this is a trap game. Miami has been playing much better of late on both sides of the ball, and I look for Reggie Bush to have a huge game. Upset Alert
Cle/Bal 12.5 The Ravens owned the Browns last time and only won by 14. Cleveland has been playing well against the run since giving up 200+ to Rice and I think they stick around
NYG/NYJ 3 "The Fight Before Christmas"
Min/Was 6.5 We'll see if the Skins can put together two complete games in a row...
TB/Car 7.5 I hate that extra half point... and this is a divisional game... but TB is awful
SD/Det 2 The Lions are win and in today... I think they'll make it happen
SF 2/Sea A lot of people think this is a trap and I can't believe the line is so low after what SF did on MNF... the 49ers need to win this game to have a chance at a bye so I think they'll give it everything they've got
Phi/Dal 1.5 Since I have the Jets winning, the Eagles will certainly get up for this one... and win outright
Chi/GB 12 I originally had Chicago but I decided they are just too bad with Cutler and Forte gone...
Atl/NO 6.5 Five of the last six games between these two teams were decided by four points or less

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 13: 8-8 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 14: 9-6-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 15: 7-7-2 ATS 10-6 SU
Total: 124-91-8 ATS 155-68 SU

It's fantasy championship time in most leagues. If you aren't yet convinced, I made the playoffs in all five leagues and the championship in three leagues.

Unfortunately, I have Stafford and McCoy in one league and I'm facing them in another. If you think I must have had great drafts and not had any injuries, you are definitely wrong. I made a trade in one league: I traded Romo, Dez Bryant and Ray Rice for Stafford, LeSean McCoy, and Jordy Nelson. McCoy is having an MVP season and Stafford gives me a nice combo with Calvin Johnson. Not to mention, in that league I have Forte who recently got hurt and has been out and is still out. I had Mark Ingram on the bench but he's been hurt as well. I was able to pick up Roy Helu, who is been OK, but a Mike Shanahan running back is never a sure thing. Thankfully, my team is just so all-around good, I haven't had to worry about that... yet.

In another league, I've had QB issues all season and been going back and forth between Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. I also have Forte in that league, but I still have Rice and Ryan Mathews. However, there is a flex spot that has always been some crazy player for me. Today I have Kahlil Bell, the Bears third-string running back who is starting because of injury. I also have Roddy White and Antonio Gates, and I've been going back and forth on who to start today between Jeremy Maclin and Malcom Floyd. I'm leaning towards Floyd.

I have no idea how I made the championship in this last league. My starting QBs are Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer. My receivers are very good with Roddy White and Marques Colston, and my running backs have been hot recently: Chris Johnson and Ryan Mathews. Willis McGahee has been a pleasant surprise in the flex spot, and 49ers defense has played a huge role this season for me.

I know my stuff for fantasy football, but I will tell you that it has a lot to do with luck. In the first round of the playoffs, both teams in the other match-up scored more than my team and my opponent. However, I've come through in the end and hopefully I can bring at least one championship home. I hope you're rooting for me.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 15 Christmas Miracle Part 3

2011-12-22T23:45:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Before I go into this, just another quick congrats to Kellen Moore and the Boise State Broncos on their victory and Moore getting to 50 wins.

I did pick Houston on TNF because I figured they would dominate. TJ Yates looked decent and Foster had a great game. Somehow the Texans couldn't score and Indy made them pay. Now Baltimore is back in the driver's seat for the first-round bye.

Well, the night games followed suit. The Ravens were in prime position to go into San Diego and win on the road, further prove they are an elite team, and move one step closer to earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. However, they decided to suck and the Chargers looked like the 10-3 team looking for a first-round bye.

San Diego is 7-7 and somehow still alive in their division. Oh wait, they play in the AFC West, the worst division ever (biggest competition is the NFC East).

Well, the Ravens lost, which means the Steelers are in prime position to steal away the No. 1 seed in the playoffs because they would have a better record and the tiebreaker over the Pats. But wait, just when you expect the Steelers to take advantage of everyone else messing up, they get spanked (like I predicted they would).

The 49ers more than dominated the game and all but knocked the Steelers out of the division race. With Big Ben hurting, the Steelers probably won't try to aggravate the injury. Luckily for the wild card teams, the division winner they will face in the first round will be an apparently bad Texans team, and whichever terrible team represents the AFC West (probably Denver).

Events like week 15 are the reason the NFL is so incredibly popular. They aren't helping their cause with all of the stupid rules and the refs sucking, but the competition is incredible.

Not a good start to this week... I'll be getting my swag back the rest of the season since the semester is over.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 15 Christmas Miracle Part 2

2011-12-21T19:14:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

We will start with my team for Part 2. The Jets were in prime position to make the playoffs after needing help, yet again. Just like two seasons ago, the Jets needed a lot of help to make the playoffs, and took advantage of the help they got.

A few weeks ago, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Tennessee lost to give the Jets the lead for the sixth seed. They controlled their own destiny to make the playoffs, but instead they felt like making it interesting by losing and giving the teams a chance. Not only did they lose to the Eagles, whom they've NEVER beaten (0-9), but they got incredibly embarrassed on offense and defense. Santonio Holmes got a taunting penalty after catching a touchdown to cut the lead to 28-10. All of this after the receiver let a ball go through his hands that was intercepted and fumbled the ball that was returned for a touchdown.

The Jets play the Giants in a game that will most likely decide both team's playoff fate. Surprisingly enough, the Jets still control their destiny based on a lucky tiebreaker with the Bengals. The Giants play the Cowboys in the final week of the season, if they win both games, they are playoff bound.

This madness was just the beginning of the late games. The Raiders scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to take a 13-point lead on the Lions. Matt Stafford led the Lions on a 71-yard drive in under three minutes to cut the lead to six. After forcing a punt, Shane Lechler did what he does best, and pinned the Lions at the two yard-line with just over two minutes to play. Unfortunately, that was way too much time for Detroit.

The game-winning touchdown drive included a 48-yard completion to Calvin Johnson. Megatron also caught the game-winning touchdown, his second on the day. The Lions left over a minute for the Raiders to attempt the tying field goal, which they did. Sebastian Janikowski attempted a 65-yard field goal, which was blocked. If Oakland had won the game, they would have the tiebreaker over the Jets, so New York caught another huge break.

The Cardinals were wetting the bed against Cleveland, but were able to come back and kick the game-winning field goal in OT. I'm not going to spend too much time on this, but it was an incredible game, and the Cards kept their playoff chances alive by getting to 7-7.

The final late game was Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow, and the game did not live up to the hype. The Broncos actually took a 16-7 lead in the second quarter, but we all know that you can't kick field goals if you want to beat the Pats. After the 16-7 lead, the Pats responded with 20 unanswered points, with three Denver fumbles in the mix. The Denver offense isn't built for huge comebacks, especially when the defense is struggling to stop the opposition.

The Pats scored a touchdown in the third, and everyone thought it was "Tebow Time" when the Broncos cut the lead back to 11. Brady responded with a touchdown drive of his own that killed way too much clock. Tebow and two other Broncos lost fumbles, and the Pats didn't turn the ball over. I hate the Pats, but they shut up the Broncos, Tebow and all of his followers of Tebowism.

The night games only made everything else even more interesting... but we'll get to those tomorrow.

Rodgers That

NFL Week 15 Christmas Miracle Part 1

2011-12-20T12:49:00.004-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Week 15 in the NFL was absolutely out of control. Nothing too out of the ordinary happened in the two games before Sunday, but then things let loose.

Carolina went into Houston and just owned the Texans. There is no reason that the Texans, with a bye on the line, should have let down against a team that has made headlines all season.

Staying in the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts played incredibly well against the Titans and will not be the second team ever to 0-16. Donald Brown dominated the Tennessee defense, including an 80-yard touchdown run.

Speaking of a one appearing in place of a zero, the Packers pursuit of perfection was put to an end by the... Kansas City Chiefs. I kid you not, the same team that lost to the Jets by more than 20 beat the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers.

I couldn't get over the fact that KC won the game. Seriously, throughout the rest of the day and all day on Monday I was so stunned. The Packers just couldn't get anything going offensively and the Packers defense was bad enough to let the Chiefs score 19.

Lastly, the New York Giants decided to wet the bed after putting up impressive offensive performances against the Packers and Cowboys. In a game that would have put the Giants in great position to make the playoffs, they couldn't get it together at home against a below average Redskins team.

The Giants loss has set up an ever-so-important game on Christmas Eve. But we'll get into that in the next post.

RECAP: The only undefeated team lost and the only defeated team won. Two teams who could have used a win lost to below average teams.

All of this commotion is just what happened early on Sunday. Ugh... I lost on GB, HOU, and TEN...

Rodgers That

NFL Week 15 Picks

2011-12-17T22:07:00.005-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Well, I nailed Atlanta on Thursday night and Dallas looks good tonight. 2-0 is not a bad way to start the week before getting to Sunday.

I am out of town visiting family so I'm just going to post the lines and my picks and not get in to much else.

Was/NYG 6.5 The Skins suck, but they will play the Giants tough. NY SU
GB 13.5/KC The Jets beat KC by four possessions and there is no reason for the Packers to do less than that
NO 7/Min I can't quite figure out why this spread is only a touchdown, but I'll take it...
Sea/Chi 3.5 Clearly Chicago isn't at all good without Cutler and/or Forte, Seattle will at least keep it close if not pull this one out
Car/Hou 6 I have faith in T.J. Yates
Ten 7/Ind The Titans must be pissed about last week and the Colts are beyond lucky they covered last week
Cin 7/Stl Sources say Kellen Clemens is starting for the Rams, and you know Cincy will play their hearts out considering the heartbreaking loss last week (SURVIVOR 11-3)
Mia/Buf 1.5 I have no comment on this game...
Det 1/Oak The Lions are the better team and the Packers really exposed Oakland's defense
NE 7.5/Den I think that New England's defense is bad enough and Denver's defense is good enough to keep this game within a touchdown, but the Pats probably win
NYJ/Phi 3 I can't believe the Jets are underdogs... I love them in this spot
Cle/Ari 6.5 Cleveland is just a terrible team and Arizona is playing well, let's see how they respond as favorites
Bal 3/SD Flying across the country is always tough and Ravens don't do it well. See Seattle game earlier this season
Pit/SF 1 If Big Ben doesn't play, San Fran should take care of business

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 13: 8-8 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 14: 9-6-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Total: 117-84-6 ATS 145-62 SU

I love Arizona and Cincy this week... I also like Green Bay and New Orleans, but you will have to make a judgement call on whether their offenses will be on full blast.

Rodgers That

Reppin' 716

2011-12-13T15:30:00.005-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

The New York Knicks have been busy in this brief time since the agreement of the new CBA. They pulled a deal with the defending champion Dallas Mavericks to get Tyson Chandler. One new clause in the CBA is called the "Amnesty Clause." Over the length of the deal (10 years), every team can cut one player without any of the usual financial repercussions to the salary cap, etc. The Knicks already used their amnesty on point guard Chauncey Billups (who has since been claimed by the Los Angeles Clippers). Billups was due over $14 million this season.

The New Orleans Hornets have been attempting to deal Chris Paul to any Los Angeles team, but the league (David Stern) apparently doesn't want Paul to go to L.A. There have been rumors linking Paul to the Knicks but nothing as of recent.

The Knicks made another temporary fix by signing Mike Bibby, who will likely split time with Toney Douglas. Second-year shooting guard Landry Fields will try to build off of successful first half last season, and the Knicks brought in more youth at guard by drafting former Georgia Tech shooting guard Iman Shumpert.

Of course, all of these signings are to complement superstars Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. If you haven't gotten the title yet: Melo is No. 7, Amar'e is No. 1 and TC is No. 6.

The Knicks made the playoffs last season but were swept by the Celtics. Now, with a revamped frontcourt, and a good mix of youth and experience at guard, the Knicks are hoping to battle it out with the Heat, Celtics, and Bulls to represent the Eastern Conference. The Hawks usually compete but they just aren't good enough. However, if the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets keep Deron Williams and can workout a deal for Dwight Howard, they will more than likely contend.

It should be a crazy 66-game season, and I can't wait.

Rodgers That

Fantasy Football and Week 14 Picks

2011-12-11T10:06:00.005-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

I hope everyone is ready because the fantasy football playoffs should be starting in your leagues. I am in the playoffs in all five leagues. Check out the video for more on fantasy football and some quick hits on this week's games.

Ind/Bal 16.5 I learned my lesson last week. Baltimore won't give up too much, but they probably won't do that much
Hou/Cin 3 I still have faith in Houston, especially after how badly Cincy got pounded last week
Oak/GB 11.5 The Packers can't lose, but they can't cover either as of recent
KC/NYJ 10.5 The Jets are a different team at home and shouldn't let up, I would be surprised if KC scored in the double digits SURVIVOR (10-3)
Min/Det 10 The Vikes will be able to score since Suh isn't playing... breakout game for Gerhart
NO 4/Ten Everyone says trap game, I say: big game for CJ but Brees doesn't let up
Phi/Mia 4 I said I would never pick Philly again...
NE 8/Was I don't think we will see a repeat of last week's backdoor cover
Atl 3/Car Atlanta needs this game to have any chance at the division, they want it more than Carolina
TB 3/Jax Two of the toughest teams to read because sometimes they play way above their ability and sometimes they just flat out suck
SF 4/Ari The 49ers are 10-1-1 ATS this season and they should want to knock the Cards out of the playoffs
Chi/Den 3 I think Marion Barber will be able to keep the Bears in the game; expect a big play from the defense and/or special teams
Buf/SD 7 I expect the Bolts to blow out the Bills
NYG/Dal 4.5 The biggest game of the season for the Giants, who knows if they'll show up...
Stl/Sea 10 The Rams suck

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Week 13: 8-8 ATS 10-6 SU
Total: 108-78-5 ATS 133-58 SU

The Jets won't lose to KC, this is the part of the season when they usually play their best ball (not by dominating, just by winning).

This is a huge game in my pick 'em book. I am in first by a game and the three people closest to me have at least eight games different from me this week. There are three games in which I have a team and the other three took the opponent (Jets, Bears, Rams). This is obviously the most important week in the book that I've had all season. As you can see by my record, I have not been anything other than average the past couple weeks, but I am 30 games over .500 so hopefully I'll have another breakout week.

My favorite picks this week are: 49ers -4/Chargers -7

Best value: Miami -3 (+100) and Atlanta -3 (+110)

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

Heisman: RGIII, No Luck, Montee and his TDs

2011-12-10T21:34:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Tonight, less than an hour ago, was the Heisman Trophy ceremony. QB Robert Griffin III won the prestigious award, the first Baylor player in history.

Below is the list of the first, second, and third place finishers for the award and their season statistics:

1. Robert Griffin III, QB 9-3 Baylor 3,998 p-yards 72.4% 36 TD 6 INT - 644 ru-yards 9 TD
2. Andrew Luck, QB 11-1 Stanford 3,170 p-yards, 70.0% 35 TD 9 INT - 153 ru-yards 2 TD
3. Trent Richardson, RB 11-1 Alabama 1,583 ru-yards 20 TD - 27 rec 327 rec-yards 3 TD

It appears that RGIII has the best statistical season of the three top vote-getters. However, for much of the season, Luck was playing with a few walk-on receivers and his tight end. Trent Richard "led" his team to a more-than-likely berth in the BCS National Championship game and had over 160 total yards in the team's only loss: 9-6 OT to LSU (the kicker missed multiple FGs). Take a look at two other players I feel were deserving of consideration:

Russell Wilson, QB 11-2 Wisconsin 2879 p-yards 72.5% 31 TD 3 INT - 320 ru-yards 5 TD
Montee Ball, RB 11-2 Wisconsin 1759 ru-yards 32 TD - 20 rec 255 rec-yards 6 TD

Wilson had a comparable season to RGIII, and the only reason his passing yards are so long is because Wisconsin often pulled him from the game when they were killing their opponent. They also would be playing for the National Championship had they not lost on a hail mary in back-to-back games. Even more impressive is the job Ball did carrying to load when Wilson need a pick-me-up. It is even scarier to think of what Ball's totals would be like if he did split some carries with James White, who stole over 600 yards and 6 TDs.

I am probably not as educated as I should be in Heisman voting, how they choose the top candidates, etc. I would like to think that each player is evaluated similarly. I would have expected the fact that RGIII didn't lead his team to a conference championship to hinder his chances. Baylor was blown out twice and RGIII was completely outplayed in one of the games. I guess the voters didn't feel as if the other players had a good enough season statistically speaking, for that to come in to play.

Look out tomorrow for NFL picks...

Rodgers That

Week 13 Picks

2011-12-04T08:50:00.004-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

OK, so I was hoping to get this out earlier but the Towson game was nuts. As a Jets fan, I thought I had seen all of the possible ways of losing, but my Towson Tigers showed me something new.

Anyway, I am actually supposed to be in Virginia right now because I'm going to the Jets @ Redskins game today. I couldn't find my wallet so I couldn't leave last night, but I finally found it so I'm going to spit out my picks and then hit the road for some tailgating and football.

Ten/Buf 2.5 It's games like this you think the Titans would be favored...
KC/Chi 7 This SHOULD be a slaughter, but we saw what happened with Pittsburgh
Oak/Mia 3 You might be thinking, "Why isn't Oakland favored?" You're about to find out why
Cin/Pit 6.5 Cincy didn't play that well last week against Cleveland and I think Pittsburgh will rebound from last week's game
NYJ 3/Was Huge letdown spot for the Jets, but if they want to make their late season playoff push, they will get the job done
Atl 3/Hou Good team playing with rookie QB, look for the defense to step up big: Houston SU
Car/TB 3 Freeman is better than Newton, even if he isn't playing that way
Den/Min 1 I can't wait to see how many people took Denver in my book
Ind/NE 20 I didn't think I would ever pick a team favored by this much, but Indy takes losing to a whole new level... (SURVIVOR 9-3)
Bal 6.5/Cle I can't believe I'm picking the Ravens, on the road, against a bad team
Dal 5/Ari For some reason, everyone loves Arizona here. This is a huge game for Dallas as they can pull ahead of the Giants by two games...
Stl/SF 13 This matchup isn't even fair
GB 7/NYG This is why the Cowboys can go ahead by two games... I can't believe this line is so low considering how good Green Bay looked against Detroit, how bad NY looked, and the extra time to prepare for the Pack
Det/NO 9 I can't pick against Brees when he is as on fire as he is, the defense better step up
SD 3/Jax New owner, new coach, the team should get up for this game on MNF: JAX SU

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Week 12: 8-7-1 ATS 12-4 SU
Total: 100-70-5 ATS 123-52 SU

You can tell that I didn't feel like actually picking a survivor, so I just went with New England...

As you can tell, the last time I had a solid week was back in Week 7. I have a good feeling about this week though.

Rodgers That

Week 12 Review, 13 Preview

2011-12-02T15:07:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

OK, sorry this is out so late, but I can give you any number of people as proof that I had Seattle. It should also be proof that I said a few weeks ago that I was never picking Philly again.

First off, Thanksgiving started out decent and ended awfully. Even though the Pack covered with ease, my fantasy players in the game didn't accomplish much. Then, the Cowboys let the recently relentless Dolphins stick around long enough to get the cover. And at night the 49ers offense can't do anything and the Ravens only needed 16 points for the win and cover.

So I started off 1-2 ATS and 2-1 SU.

Then on Sunday, I forgot that whenever I pick the Rams, they suck... especially against the Cards. For the second time this season, the amazing Patrick Peterson had a punt return touchdown against St. Louis. This was incredibly frustrating.

Then the Jets game: they won, so I don't care...

I read the battle of Ohio game perfectly. However, due to the Browns being stupid enough to attempt a 55-yard field goal with less than two minutes left and the game tied, the Bengals almost got the push with an awesome play by AJ Green. Thankfully, he was pushed out at the 2-yardline and the Browns held Cincy to a field goal. Cleveland easily should have won the game as they outplayed Cincy the whole game, but at least I got the cover. The Houston game was easy even though Leinart got hurt and they played with their third-string quarterback. Carolina and Tennessee went back and forth, but I came out on top.

In my book, I had Atlanta at 9.5 but on here I have them at 10. That is frustrating considering the Falcons were owning Minnesota the whole game and out of no where it was a three point game. The Chicago game was just as frustrating. I don't remember Caleb Hanie sucking so much in last season's NFC championship. Of course, the Bears should have won outright but missed the cover by a point. Seattle was playing fairly well. Washington got a 50-yard bomb on third and forever. The momentum immediately shifted and Seattle was screwed.

New England and Denver were easy choices and I even got Denver SU. Pittsburgh's defense played extremely well and forced a ton of turnovers, but the offense looked really out of sync and couldn't capitalize on anything. New Orleans destroyed New York.

The covers I missed, I was fairly close and seemed to get screwed on a few instances. It was really frustrating.

Philly sucks and had to travel on a short week. Seattle is a tough place to play and Lynch absolutely owned the Philly run defense.

A few notables this week:

The Patriots are favored by more than 20 points over the Colts, and this is only the tenth time since 1989 that a team has been a favorite of 20 or more. Favorites in the previous nine contests are 2-7 ATS. However, Indy is so unbelievably terrible I don't know if I can pick them.
There are four teams favored even though they are playing a team with a better record, three of them are at home.
13 of the 16 games this week have a line of a touchdown or less.
The 49ers can clinch the division this week with a win over the Rams.
Could we have an 0-12 and 12-0 team?

A few games I think are interesting:

I know Houston lost two quarterbacks but they are still at home. Teams that play their first game with their backup quarterback usually try to play well for them. I think they will beat Atlanta outright.
I know Detroit has been struggling but I was surprised to see New Orleans favored by nine. I will definitely have to do some research that game because that is a big spread for a team in the Lions who scores a lot.
San Francisco is coming back home and has extra rest. The defense played great against Baltimore and now they face divisional foe St. Louis. They are only favored by 13 and they should cover easy.
My favorite game is Green Bay vs. New York. The Giants are clearly in their usual late-season tailspin. The Packers are still on fire and there is no reason they shouldn't win by 20, just like New Orleans did last week. For some reason, the Pack is only favored by 6.5 and I like them to cover that from the first quarter through the game.

I'll post my picks tomorrow before I go to the Towson vs. Lehigh game. I'm pumped for the game because it is the first meaningful game since I've been at school.

Rodgers That

The Rest of Week 12

2011-11-27T10:02:00.002-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

OK, so I didn't give you my Thanksgiving recap, but I'll include that with the rest of the games early this week. Unfortunately, I didn't have a lot to be thankful for, football-wise.

Ari/Stl 2.5 For some reason, whenever there is a battle of bad teams, I just have to go with the home team
Buf/NYJ 9.5 The spread is probably big because of the last game between the teams, so let's hope for a repeat
Cle/Cin 7 Cleveland plays these games tough and this will probably be a push
Hou 6.5/Jax Houston will win this easy because they will want to show they can compete without Schaub
Car 4/Ind The Colts are awful, I just can't pick them...
TB/Ten 3.5 Tampa sucks, hopefully we will see Jake Locker again
Min/Atl 10 No AP, not All-Day... Falcons win easy
Chi/Oak 4 Caleb Hanie is starting, but I think the Bears defense will step up
Was/Sea 3.5 Washington sucks, they played Dallas tough because that's what they do, but it's always difficult to play in Seattle SURVIVOR (9-2)
NE 3.5/Phi I told you I wasn't taking Philly, even though I can't describe to you how much I hate that extra half point
Den/SD 6 Denver has been playing well, the last game was decided by 5 and Rivers is struggling
Pit 10.5/KC Repeat of last week's game against NE, Steelers win big
NYG/NO 7 The Giants had a huge let down last week against Philly, I think they'll have a hard time rebounding against the Saints

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Week 11: 6-5-2 ATS 11-2 SU
Total: 92-63-4 ATS 111-48 SU

These lines are interesting because you've got the Jets coming off an embarrassing loss who are almost double digit favorites, and Houston just lost their starting quarterback and they are on the road in the division and favored by just under a touchdown. I don't care about the extra half point, the Steelers need to make a statement and the Chiefs are a good team to do it against. If Orton plays then I won't feel as good, but Tyler Palko sucks. Unfortunately, there are a ton of lines with an extra half point, but most of them aren't changing my opinion (i.e. Seattle, Tennessee).

The fantasy playoffs are right around the corner, and I'm going to be in them in every one of my leagues (I think). One league I'm dominating and in first place, and I'm just in the mix in the rest. Don't hesitate to ask any fantasy football questions.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

Happy Thanksgiving

2011-11-24T10:26:00.004-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

So, in my eyes, I've been struggling with my picks. I've been around .500 the last few weeks which is below average in my mind because I know what I'm capable of doing. I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksgiving because this is one of the greatest American traditions, eat as much as possible and watch football from noon until midnight. I'll post today's games now and the rest tomorrow or Saturday.

Green Bay Packers -6 at Detroit Lions

The Pack is unstoppable... offensively. Fortunately for the Lions, their defense is suspect at best. A mediocre Josh Freeman and LaGarrett Blount kept it relatively close against Green Bay last week, who at two separate times in the fourth quarter cut the lead to two points. I think that it is tradition for the Lions to play, and lose, on Thanksgiving. While Detroit's offense looked good in the second half last week, they aren't going up against a defense as bad as Carolina's. Also, keep in mind that Detroit gave up 35 points to Cam Newton and Steve Smith. I think that means we are looking at about 50 points from Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley... (and the list goes on).

It should be a better game than we've seen in recent years, but I don't think Detroit will be able to have the offensive success they had last week to the tune of 49 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see a backdoor cover by either team.

Packers (-6) 31 Lion 23

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys -7

I'll start by saying that the Miami Dolphins have won three games in a row. That in itself is absolutely amazing, but let us consider the competition (Kansas City, Washington, Buffalo). Dallas played down to their opponent last week as it took overtime and a few missed field goals to beat Washington. However, the Cowboys always get up for Thanksgiving and Tony Romo is 4-0 ATS on Thanksgiving. For some reason, they are the anti-Lions. While the Lions stink it up every year, we can always count on Dallas to take care of business. This year shouldn't be any different. While Dallas' defense might have some issues with Miami's newly impressive passing game, there is no way Miami can stop Romo, Murray, Bryant and Witten.

I like DeMarco Murray to have a good game even though Miami has played well against the run recently. Also, Brandon Marshall is in for a big day because Dallas' secondary has been decimated by injuries.

Cowboys (-7) 34 Dolphins 24

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens -3.5

I will be at this game, and it should be a great one. Of course, it has been dubbed the Harbaugh Bowl, or the Harbowl, or whatever you want to call it. The first game in NFL history where the teams are coached by brothers. In my opinion, the NFL shafted the 49ers this week, similar to how they did the Jets last week. The 49ers have to travel from coast to coast (already very difficult), and now they have to do it on a short week.

San Fran has been outstanding this year defensively. They have yet to give up a rushing touchdown, and that will most definitely be put to the test tonight as they face off against Ray Rice. This game will be determined by whether or not San Fran's offense can do anything against Baltimore's defense. This should be a low-scoring affair, but I don't expect sloppy football. Whichever way it goes, it won't be a happy Thanksgiving in the Harbaugh home.

X-Factor: Whether or not Ray Lewis plays tonight.

San Francisco (+3.5) 20 Ravens 17

Once again, enjoy your Thanksgiving and all of the games today.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 11: Quickie

2011-11-20T09:12:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Unfortunately, I have a project for school that I have to do from 10 a.m. until around game time, so I have to throw my picks in now because I wasn't able to earlier in the week. I will only have my picks and I'll do post-game analysis.

Obviously I took the Jets at -6 because I forgot they feel like sucking as of recent.

Buf 1.5/Mia Buffalo is reeling and Miami is playing well, they will win outright at home
Cin/Bal 7 This will be a defensive game and like most Ravens games, it will be a possession game
Jax/Cle 1 Jacksonville is playing their third straight road game, Cleveland will get it done SURVIVOR (8-2)
Oak/Min PK The Vikes are coming off a pounding from GB and can't get up for Oakland
Car/Det 7 So much offense, expect a ton of points... Carolina should keep it close
TB/GB 14 Green Bay is amazing, Tampa is no match for them
Dal 7/Was Washington is terrible and Dallas has been playing really well as of late
Ari/SF 9.5 I know this is a division game but San Fran is too good and Arizona is not as good as they played last week
Sea/Stl 2.5 Both teams suck so the home team gets it done
SD/Chi 3.5 The Chargers need this game so I wouldn't be surprised if they got it done
Ten/Atl 6 Atlanta is better than Tennessee who has struggled
Phi/NYG 6 I told you I am done picking the Eagles
KC/NE 14.5 The Pats will absolutely destroy KC... Tyler Palko sucks

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Week 10: 9-7 ATS 9-7 SU
Total: 86-58-2 ATS 100-46 SU

Note to self:

2011-11-16T11:43:00.001-05:00

The Philadelphia Eagles suck, so stop picking them to cover.

NFL Week 10: picks and preview

2011-11-11T11:50:00.005-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

Last week was frustrating because of all the backdoor covers and terrible play by some of the teams. I still ended up over .500 ATS and SU. So far, I'm picking about 60% ATS and 70% SU. I would like to up both of those by at least five percent by season's end.

The reason I'm posting the games so early is because there was a death in the family and I will be out of town. I'm not sure if I will be able to post or update these, but this is how I feel about them right now.

Oak/SD 7 So this game was last night, but honestly I thought San Diego was going to cover ... They clearly suck
Hou 3/TB I'm hearing a lot of mixed opinions on this game, but I think Tampa is so inconsistent and Houston is the better team...
Ari/Phi The line has yet to be released for this game, but it doesn't matter because the Eagles should kill the Cards (SURVIVOR 8-1)
Was/Mia 4 The Skins have shown their true colors recently and I think Miami gets two in a row
Den/KC 4 This is divisional game in a division that sucks and is sometimes tough to predict. Denver SU
Jax 3/Ind Another awful game this weekend that people have mixed opinions about. This is one of four games left that I think Indy has a chance to win... but they won't
Buf/Dal 5.5 I love the Cowboys in this game. Buffalo is coming off a bad loss and is not good on the road
Stl/Cle 3 As I said right above, another awful game. I think St. Louis is going to be pissed about last week and will take this one SU.
NO 1/Atl Finally, a better game... people have mixed opinions on this one as well. I think Atlanta needs to get back on track at home
Ten/Car 3 Tennessee doesn't have much going for them and I think Carolina should take care of business at home... Cam makes plays
Pit 3/Cin While this is a good game, it is tough to read. Cincy has only played one good team, a 5-point loss to San Fran... I think Pittsburgh is too good for them
Det/Chi 3 I was confused by this because Detroit is young and talented and the Bears are inconsistent. I think it will be a close game and I like the upset Detroit SU
NYG/SF 3.5 The 49ers are playing fairly well and I think the Giants are a bit overrated. I think San Fran will pull this one out
Bal 7/Sea Seattle usually plays tough at home and Baltimore might come out flat after an emotional last second win against Pittsburgh... Ravens SU
NE/NYJ 1 A lot of people are not sure why the Jets are favored here, but New England is struggling and the Jets are playing well... I think they take the division lead
Min/GB 13 Last time these two played Minnesota came back and only lost by six, and I think they play them tough again. The Packers defense isn't that good GB SU

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Week 9: 8-6 ATS 9-5 SU
Total: 77-51-2 ATS 91-39 SU

This is a tough week for survivor, but the Philly spread should be more than seven and I think they are safe even though they are struggling. Arizona is just plain bad, which I am surprised by, but they've be consistently bad so we must take advantage of that.

This should be an interesting week and unfortunately, I don't feel too confident. We shall see.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 9

2011-11-06T09:45:00.003-05:00

By Dan Rodgers

So last week was another sub-par week by my own standards. However, I'm feeling another weird week this week because a lot of the lines seem off from what you might have thought they would be.

Atl 6.5/Ind I was giving the Colts some respect and they have been tough to read this season, but Matty Ice should get it done by at least a touchdown.
TB/NO 8.5 I can't believe the Saints are favored by over a touchdown after Tampa beat them earlier and they let down against the Rams. NO SU
Cle/Hou 10.5 Houston is a much better team, but you know how I feel about double-digit spreads Houston SU (SURVIVOR 7-1)
NYJ/Buf 2.5 Do or die for the Jets, and the Bills need this win to prove they are legit Jets SU
Mia/KC 4 Kansas City has come to play this season (not including the first few games)
SF 4/Was This is by far the most awkward line of the afternoon, but it's not enough to make me sway from San Fran
Sea/Dal 11 I hate Seattle, but you know how I feel about double-digit lines
Den/Oak 7.5 Divisional game should be within a touchdown Oakland SU
Cin/Ten 2.5 The Bengals are the better team so I like them as an underdog Cincy SU
Stl/Ari 3 This is a battle of backups and AJ Feeley proved he is a decent backup. Rams SU
NYG/NE 8.5 Rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl, the Giants should keep it close and watch for the upset if Manning can pick apart the New England secondary
GB 5.5/SD Rivers is clearly not in his element and the Packers are healthier coming off the bye
Bal/Pit 3 The Steelers are playing well and want to prove week 1 was a fluke
Chi/Phi 8 I'm not sure about this one yet because Philly is playing well and sometimes Chicago is tough to read

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 8: 7-6 ATS 9-4 SU
Total: 69-45-2 ATS 82-34 SU

Survivor: Obviously now that I already messed up, I'm killing it and even though I'm picking Cleveland, Houston should have no problem winning. Unfortunately (for my fantasy team) Andre Johnson is still out, but that shouldn't matter.

Week 9 bold prediction: Wow... I picked 11 road teams to cover...

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

MLB MVP races

2011-11-03T08:27:00.005-04:00

By Dan Rodgers

They haven't announced awards yet, but I'm going to offer my soon-to-be-considered expert opinion.

So, in my soon-to-be-considered expert opinion, pitchers should not be eligible for the Most Valuable Player award. The MVP award goes to the most outstanding, or valuable, player in each league. The Cy Young award is to honor the best pitcher in each league. Why should pitchers be eligible for both awards when there is no MVP-type award specifically for position players.

NOTE: The Hank Aaron Award is given to the player with the best offensive season, but was initially introduced in 1999 to commemorate the 25th anniversary of Hank Aaron surpassing Babe Ruth and becoming the home run king. I don't think of this award on the same level as the MVP or Cy Young Award.

Because of my feelings on this, I will not be including pitchers in the decision for MVP.

The National League MVP is really only between two players: Matt Kemp, OF Los Angeles Dodgers and Ryan Braun, OF Milwaukee Brewers.

Braun: .332 BA 33 HR 111 RBI 33 SB .397 OBP .597 SLG 58 BB 93 SO - 1 E
Kemp: .324 BA 39 HR 126 RBI 40 SB .399 OBP .586 SLG 74 BB 159 SO - 5 E

As you can see, they have very similar statistics. A few things stand out to me, Braun has a higher average, less strikeouts and less errors. Clearly the differences aren't much, but that combined with Braun leading his team to the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and their first division title in over a decade makes me lean in his direction. Don't get me wrong, Kemp is a great player, but I think the Dodgers finishing in third in one of baseball's less competitive divisions is going to hurt his chances.

NOTE: Given that Matt Kemp has now won the 2011 Hank Aaron Award, chances are he will not win the MVP.

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, OF Milwaukee Brewers

The American League MVP is a bit more competitive. The Yankees have two candidates (Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson), the Red Sox have two more (Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez), and the Blue Jays have one more (Jose Bautista). That's five alone in the AL East. The last candidate is Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.

Granderson: .262 BA 41 HR 119 RBI 25 SB .364 OBP .552 SLG 85 BB 169 SO - 3 E
Cano: .302 BA 28 HR 118 RBI 8 SB .349 OBP .533 SLG 38 BB 96 SO - 10 E
Ellsbury: .321 BA 32 HR 105 RBI 39 SB .376 OBP .552 SLG 52 BB 98 SO - 0 E
Gonzalez: .338 BA 27 HR 117 RBI 1 SB .410 OBP .548 SLG 74 BB 119 SO - 4 E
Bautista: .302 BA 43 HR 103 RBI 9 SB .447 OBP .608 SLG 132 BB 111 SO - 6 E
Cabrera: .344 BA 30 HR 105 RBI 2 SB .448 OBP .586 SLG 108 BB 89 SO - 13 E

As you can see, all of the candidates had phenomenal seasons. Most voters take into consideration whether or not the player's team made the playoffs and how they did. The Red Sox and Blue Jays did not make the playoffs, and Boston's historic collapse might hinder the chances of Ellsbury and Gonzalez. Cabrera and Cano both had respectable postseasons, offensively, and Granderson made a few game-saving catches that kept the Yanks in it.

NOTE: Jose Bautista won the Hank Aaron Award for the AL, and Jacoby Ellsbury was named the Comeback Player of the Year so neither of them will probably win MVP.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 1B Detroit Tigers

@dhrodgers

Rodgers That

NFL Week 8: Double digits

2011-10-30T11:20:00.003-04:00

By Dan Rodgers

Note to self: If you want, look at trends and the opinions of "experts," but always make the final decision for yourself.

OK, now I'll explain that: Double digit underdogs cover the spread more often than not. I tried to find loopholes involving unbeaten and winless teams. Then, the Packers allowed a backdoor cover and the Ravens just flat out sucked. So we're looking into it. I'm coming up with a system similar to that of picking survivor teams. I'll let you know more about it next week because I'm testing it this week since there are so many big spreads.

In case you were wondering, I'm in first place in my

Ind/Ten 8.5 Tennessee has not been playing very well since they lost Kenny Britt, the Colts should keep it within single digits.
Jax/Hou 9.5 The Texans performed as expected last week against the Titans and Jacksonville gave the Ravens everything they had and won't get up for Houston.
Min/Car 3 Carolina is decent and Newton makes plays, they should win at home.
NO 14.5/Stl Ugh, another massive spread... I think we might get a backdoor cover from St. Louis - not a fan of the extra half point.
Ari/Bal 13 The Ravens were so terrible last week that I'm going to give themselves a chance for redemption. They better not mess it up.
Mia/NYG 10 The Giants should destroy Miami. They get Justin Tuck back and Miami won't do much in the cold.
Was/Buf 6 (in Toronto) I think Washington is decent enough to stick with the Bills. Teams have been flat coming off the bye.
Det 3.5/Den I think we're getting value because Denver came back to win and the Lions looked bad against Atlanta. Detroit should get back to work if Stafford plays.
NE 3.5/Pit The Steelers usually don't beat Tom Brady but they should at least keep it within a field goal.
Cle/SF 9 I love this game. I can't see the 49ers not killing Cleveland since San Fran is at home. SURVIVOR (6-1)
Cin 2/Sea Awkward spot for Cincy, coming off a bye and playing in Seattle doesn't bode well for them. Seattle SU
Dal/Phi 3 Philly is on their way to getting back on track and should win a nationally televised game at home.
SD 4/KC The Chiefs always seem to play San Diego tough... should be within a field goal and look for the upset.

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Week 7: 9-3-1 ATS 10-3 SU
Total: 62-39-2 ATS 73-30 SU

Survivor is pretty easy this week because San Fran is playing well and they are at home against a team that is mediocre at best. Not much else to talk about.

There are six spreads of over a touchdown. That is pretty crazy considering two of those are division games and one is a road team. Everyone talks about the awesome thing that is the NFL, "Any given Sunday." So it's surprising to see so many big lines.

Week 8 bold prediction: The Packers stay undefeated and the Dolphins, Colts and Rams stay defeated? Obviously I'm not feeling creative.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That

NFL Week 7: Bouncing back

2011-10-23T08:21:00.004-04:00

By Dan Rodgers

Just as I suspected, last week I bounced back fairly well from my dreadful week 5. If you're not yet convinced of my talent, I'm going to try to find the numbers for my previous seasons so you can see my consistency.

NCAA: Rough week for Top 25 as seven teams went down, including four to unranked opponents and two top 10 teams. Unfortunately, I was hit by a few of those because I didn't expect Wisconsin to only play in the first and fourth quarters

Chi 1.5/TB (in London) No home team, the Bucs got up last week for New Orleans and Chicago is playing better
Was/Car 3 Should be able to take care of business at home assuming Philly showed Washington's true colors last week
SD/NYJ 1 Weird spread and movement all week, Jets play well at home
Sea/Cle 3 Seattle still sucks and is a road team...
Hou/Ten 3 Curious spread, I think Houston is just the better team
Den 1/Mia Crazy movement in this line, and rightfully so...Denver should kill them
Atl/Det 3 This line dropped but I still like Atlanta, Detroit SU
KC/Oak 4.5 Who knows what the Raiders are getting from their QB, possible upset, Oakland SU
Pit 4.5/Ari Pittsburgh should be more than 4.5 points better than Arizona, weak SB rematch
GB 12/Min Aaron Rodgers is amazing (it comes with the last name)
Stl/Dal 14 Rams are defeated, so that allows me to take Dallas here SURVIVOR (5-1)
Ind/NO 13.5 Even though Indy is defeated, I think they'll cover, wish I had the extra half point though... NO SU
Bal 10/Jax There is a time and place for EVERY rule to be broken and this is it... There is no reason for the Ravens to not win this game by 30+ points

Week 1: 7-9 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 2: 10-6 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 3: 11-4-1 ATS 10-6 SU
Week 4: 9-7 ATS 13-3 SU
Week 5: 6-7 ATS 7-6 SU
Week 6: 10-3 ATS 10-3 SU
Total: 53-36-1 ATS 63-27 SU

I just realized I took nine out of 13 road teams to cover, that's pretty wild. Of course I'll probably go 16-1 with survivor but who cares because I screwed myself!

Anyway, this is an interested week because there are a lot of double digit spreads (4) and spreads of a field goal or less (7). I think it's about time we see some separation and the good teams rise to the top. I hate letting mediocre teams (Buffalo/Washington) hang around.

Week 7 bold prediction: The Broncos, Packers, Cowboys and Ravens all win by at least three touchdowns.

@dhrodgers52

Rodgers That