Dragonfly Capital

Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 20, 2013: The Rest

Greg Harmon — Sun, 19 May 2013 21:16:42 +0000

Here are the Rest of the Top 10:

Baidu, Ticker: $BIDU

Baidu, $BIDU, is building a bull flag at the 100 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after a move higher out of a base at 84.75. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and rising and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) is also rising. Both support more upward price action.

Dana Holdings, Ticker: $DAN

Dana Holdings, $DAN, is back at resistance at 18.25 after a pullback just beyond the 100 day SMA. The RSI is rising and bullish with a MACD that is rising, both supporting further price action higher.

Express Scripts, Ticker: $ESRX

Express Scripts, $ESRX, is also building a bull flag under resistance at 62 after a touch at the 100 day SMA. It has a RSI that is rising and in bullish territory with a MACD however that is pulling back. It did confirm a hammer reversal higher Friday with a bullish Marubozu candle.

Interactive Brokers, Ticker: $IBKR

Interactive Brokers, $IBKR, is building a bull flag between 15.60 and 15.90 after a run higher off of a dip to 13.75. It has a bullish RSI that may be turning back higher after a pull back from being technically over bought. The MACD is rolling lower though and it is extended from the 50 day SMA. Look both ways.

ExxonMobil, Ticker: $XOM

ExxonMobil, $XOM, has moved on a broad channel between 84.75 and 92 since September 2012. It is now testing the top of that channel with a RSI that is bullish and rising and a MACD that is also rising, in support of more upside.

Up Next: Bonus Idea

The Best

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which, running into the Memorial Day Weekend sees the equity markets continuing to look strong but with the potential for rotation into the small caps noted last week still. Look for Gold to continue the trend lower while Crude Oil is biased higher in its neutral channel. The US Dollar Index sins on the verge of a full blown bullish move higher while US Treasuries are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite also looks to be ready to move back higher while Emerging Markets are biased to the downside as they consolidate. Volatility looks to remain a non factor and should be ignored until it breaks above 22 keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite the moves to new highs. Their charts agree although the SPY is showing the most signs of caution as the IWM and QQQ plow forward. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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The post Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 20, 2013: The Rest appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 20, 2013: The Rest Premium

Greg Harmon — Sun, 19 May 2013 14:45:43 +0000

Here are the Rest of the Top 10 with Premium Content in Bold:

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Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 20, 2013: The Best

Greg Harmon — Sun, 19 May 2013 00:52:18 +0000

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early.

The post Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 20, 2013: The Best appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

SPY Trends and Influencers May 18, 2013

Greg Harmon — Sat, 18 May 2013 13:06:50 +0000

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, as we headed into the options expiration week for May that the equity markets remain strong. Look for Gold ($GLD) to continue its correction while Crude Oil ($USO) might consolidate with an upside bias. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) seemed content to move sideways but now with a upward bias as US Treasuries ($TLT) moved lower in the broad consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) was building towards a break of consolidation higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) looked to pullback in their uptrend. Volatility ($VIX) looked to remain subdued keeping the wind at the backs of the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ, despite their moves to new highs. Their charts agreed with a continued upward bias but with the IWM the strongest on the short term basis and the QQQ strongest on the intermediate term. Rotation into small caps might result.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower while Crude Oil bounced and moved higher in the range. The US Dollar took that upward bias and ran while Treasuries bounced around in a lower range. The Shanghai Composite continued to consolidate before popping Friday while Emerging Markets went flat as a pancake, consolidating. Volatility remained stable before making lower lows Friday. With this positive backdrop the Equity Index ETF’s continued their march higher with the SPY and IWM making new all-time highs and the QQQ multi-year highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

SPY Daily, $SPY

SPY Weekly, $SPY

The SPY continued higher on the week ending at new all-time highs. The steps higher off of the November low have averaged between 11 and 14 points and this move would end at 167.50 if it obeyed that limit. Pullbacks have averaged about 6 points. As it stands today the RSI is bullish and only just at the 70 level, technically overbought, but leveling. Not a problem yet. The MACD is continuing to rise as well with no sign of fading. These point higher still on the daily chart. This market does not want to make it easy to get in on this timeframe. Out on the weekly chart the move up off of the wedge break continues with the RSI reaching multi-year highs and the MACD rising to new highs as well. Some cautious signals here as well. There is no resistance higher and support below is found at 163 and 159.72. Continued Upside, But with Caution in the Short Term.

Running into the Memorial Day Weekend the equity markets continue to look strong but the potential for rotation into the small caps noted last week still exists. Look for Gold to continue the trend lower while Crude Oil is biased higher in its neutral channel. The US Dollar Index sins on the verge of a full blown bullish move higher while US Treasuries are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite also looks to be ready to move back higher while Emerging Markets are biased to the downside as they consolidate. Volatility looks to remain a non factor and should be ignored until it breaks above 22 keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite the moves to new highs. Their charts agree although the SPY is showing the most signs of caution as the IWM and QQQ plow forward. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview May 17, 2013

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through May 2013 Expiry and sign up here.

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Cleveland’s Best Linkfest!

Greg Harmon — Sat, 18 May 2013 12:08:55 +0000

Charts/Markets/Business/Economy You Might Not See Otherwise

Investing now? Nervous? Here’s what to do USAToday

Do you have enough money to retire? New study notes problems for young baby boomers cleveland.com

Exchange-traded funds entering new phase Ohio.com

Drought causing beef prices to skyrocket The Columbus Dispatch

Transocean chairman voted out, Icahn dividend plan rejected Reuters

Whole Foods raising standards for grocery and household items to new level The Columbus Dispatch

Possible Corruption in NJ? Fugetaboutit! New Jersey Hospital Has Highest Billing Rates in the Nation NYT

Clveeland Success: Sherwin-Williams’ colorful 10-story banner, “Our Vibrant Home Town,” pays tribute to downtown Cleveland cleveland.com

Cleveland Flair

The Orchestra has a special guest, as part of the Celebrity Series – Patti Austin: Music of Ella and Ellington.

Looks like the last show of the season for the Philharmonic Orchestra, Sunday a Tri-C Western Campus in Parma, playing Rachmaninoff and Dvořák.

For some rock’em sock’em with lots of scoring, the Gladiators are at the Q Saturday.

The Rhododendron Discovery Garden opens at Holden Arboretum Saturday as well.

The Rite Aid Marathon is Sunday, but you can get by with the Kid’s Run or 5k as well.

At the Museum of Art , Forty-Part Motet, by Janet Cardiff is ongoing through June 9.

Around Shaker the added activity is looking out for the lies of Kevin Costner, Jennifer garner and others filming Draft Day.

Dragonfly Facts

A dragonfly is an insect and so has three main body segments and six legs. However, unlike other insects, the dragonfly relies entirely on flight for its movement.

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Macro Week in Review/Preview May 17, 2013

Greg Harmon — Sat, 18 May 2013 01:30:01 +0000

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, as we headed into the options expiration week for May that the equity markets remain strong. Look for Gold to continue its correction while Crude Oil might consolidate with an upside bias. The US Dollar Index seemed content to move sideways but now with a upward bias as US Treasuries moved lower in the broad consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite was building towards a break of consolidation higher while Emerging Markets looked to pullback in their uptrend. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the wind at the backs of the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite their moves to new highs. Their charts agreed with a continued upward bias but with the IWM the strongest on the short term basis and the QQQ strongest on the intermediate term. Rotation into small caps might result.

The post Macro Week in Review/Preview May 17, 2013 appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through May 2013 Expiry

Greg Harmon — Fri, 17 May 2013 22:01:10 +0000

Below is a synopsis of Dragonfly Capital Views Portfolio performance from inception September 14, 2011 through May 2013 Expiration. A positive month gaining 6.53%, and now just under 173% since inception. Each trade making up the performance was given to premium users with detailed triggers, profit points, stops and adjustments along with full analysis of why the trade was interesting from a technical perspective. For individual trade performance detail send me an e-mail request through the contact page above and I will send it right out. (100bp = 1%).

Value of $100,000 Traded

Number of Winners vs Losers

Contribution from Winners and Losers

Performance by Trade Duration

Distribution of Trades by Performance Against Portfolio

Performance by Options Cycle

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About the Service

The premium service starts with an in depth Technical Analysis of the Macro Markets and their influencers. Reviewing the Equity Indexes, Gold, Oil, Bonds, The Dollar, Foreign Markets and Volatility and assessing the upcoming week. This is delivered Saturday morning. On Sunday you get 5 exclusive trade ideas culled from reviewing over 900 individual charts. Additionally there are 5 more ideas that I offer high level analysis to the public, but then expand with detailed triggers, stops, support and resistance levels and profit targets and how to adjust them only to premium users. The Top 10 Trade Ideas are screened against the potential to provide a 5 – 10% return in under 10 trading days. During the week I offer updates when pertinent to these trades or the market mood. I also offer 1-3 additional trade ideas daily, with the same detailed trading plan. These could also be good set ups from the charts but often are earnings related. Most of these mid week ideas are options focused. Many trades are proposed with both stock and options idea, and sometimes several options trades so you can choose according on your risk tolerance. Finally, you get access to me, to ask about these trades, the market or anything else.

All premium material is posted to the blog under the premium page. You can subscribe to receive it via e-mail or RSS feed. I also post it with a link on both StockTwits and twitter.

In summary you get at least 40 – 50 trade ideas and an expert technical review of the macro market each week. What are you waiting for. Come join!

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Premium Earnings 5-17-13

Greg Harmon — Fri, 17 May 2013 15:50:12 +0000

The post Premium Earnings 5-17-13 appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Which Way is Up?

Greg Harmon — Fri, 17 May 2013 11:52:23 +0000

Earlier this week I commented to one of my partners that the market felt like it was reaching the acceptance phase. More and more commentators that have either been bearish or have moved to the sidelines because of the ‘froth’ have been showing up as on board the train to higher prices. Is it that the Transports are confirming the Dow higher? The rest of the world markets joining in? Just tired of being wrong for six months and need some new clients? I do not know. But for the last few of you that still want to piss into the wind let me try to change your perspective. You know who you are. The people that when I point out a hint of an upper shadow at a Measured Move on an index ETF start to go Tasmanian Devil crazy about shorting Google or some other major uptrending stock. If I have mislabeled you, because you are not really looking for a long downtrend reversal, but just to capture a short for a few points, then I apologize. You cannot be helped. This is asinine looking for 1 or 2% reversals in a raging bull market. I have said it before. You do not get paid with extra special bonus dollars if you make them from being short instead of long. Dry yourself off and go with the trend. If you are having trouble identifying the trend here are a few simple Renko charts of the Dow 30 ($DIA), S&P 500 ($SPY), Russell 2000 ($IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ). I added some notes to make it even easier.

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through April 2013 Expiry and sign up here.

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Cicso Kid Was a Friend of Mine

Greg Harmon — Thu, 16 May 2013 21:11:25 +0000

The last time Cicso, $CSCO, was a popular stock this song was hitting its stride. But following the Dot com crash it has been in a rut trading nearly exclusively between 12 and 26 for 10 years. Many are excited about large cap tech companies now though and with their earnings report yesterday the stock jumped 12.6% Thursday. Could it be time to break that channel? Let’s take a look.

The daily chart above shows that heading into earnings it was stalling near completion of a bearish Butterfly, but also trying to break above a Diamond Consolidation. The Diamond prevailed and the move Thursday to 23.89 is still short of the target of 25.40 on the pattern break. The gap up leaves a big open window below and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) now technically overbought but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) is rising and the volume was huge. With some consolidation in this area the RSI can work off and it will look attractive. But what about a longer term scale? The monthly chart below looks good. It is moving out of consolidation higher, and over the

Simple Moving Averages (SMA) with the MACD starting to rise. These are all positives for the stock. The RSI is rising as well. It still has the hurdle at 26 and then 32.50 to get over before you can set it and forget it, but it is looking up. Over that 32.50 area and the upside targets move higher very quickly with 53.40 and then 67. Maybe the Cisco Kid will be your friend again soon.

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through April 2013 Expiry and sign up here.

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