Drive to the Finals Blog

BOLD PREDICTIONS: Knicks Win w/ A Trip Dub!

2026-06-10T12:31:55.758-07:00

It's likely my final Bold Predictions segment of the year. Life has gotten in the way so I haven't posted much, but now's the time to get EXTRA BOLD!

SAS/NYK: The New York Knickerbockers will win Game 4 and someone on the team will have a triple-double! For the sake of my own pick, I hope it's Josh Hart, but for my prediction to be accurate it can be anyone. Enjoy the game folks! Who's everyone got left to pick at this point?!

*Stay Tuned for the RESULTS posted after the games.

----------------------------------

RESULTS: No Triple-Double, but the Knicks win in dramatic fashion!

Current Bold Predictions Record: (1-3)

Finals: Your Big Four

2026-06-02T15:08:43.484-07:00

Welcome to the NBA Finals!

Big congratulations to Knicks fans! What a ride so far for your team. Whatever level of elation you are feeling right now, you deserve that.

Big congratulations to Wemby and the Spurs! You played the right way [insert Pop saying "This is the way"] and now you played your way in The Finals. Wemby has exorcised his inner demons (one of which is Holmgren) -- but now he's facing Madison Garden. Let's see if he can conquer it.

I am rooting for the Knicks. But betting on the Spurs.

But none of that matters now in our Fantasy Basketball. There are no further rounds. Now the game switches to "Which player in which game?"

Line up your best seven players left in your pool, but focus first on your Big Four. Why four? Well, a sweep! I'm not saying there will be a sweep. But, I am just saying you don't need to rush with your fifth to seventh best players. Pull each of those back in your pool only if the series extends.

So my Big Four sucks... lol! That's what I get for betting on the wrong team. The real Big in my Four is Karl-Anthony Towns. The question is: will he play best in Game 1, 2, 3 or 4? The safe traditional DTTF move is to wait for him to get to Games 3 and 4 at home, but I see Madison Garden home games are better for hype guys like Brunson and Hart as those guys seem fit to deal with home crowd. I see KAT doing better on the road so he can be himself with less pressure. The problem is Wemby. Will KAT draw him out of the paint and to the perimeter? The Spurs are better at adjustments and the Knicks to me will try to always play their style of basketball. And so I am picking KAT in Game 1 before Spurs adjust.

I have Keldon Johnson for Game 2.

Alupin picks Keldon for Game 1, and Bridges for Game 2.

Good luck to everyone for this sprint to the finish!

OVER OR UNDER: Strus Gets Loose!

2026-05-23T15:54:18.413-07:00

CLE/NYK: Max Strus will make OVER 4 three-pointers. He has only made 3 total all series, but now it's time for some home cooking! I'd honestly be shocked if the Cavs don't win this game as well.

*Stay Tuned for the RESULTS posted after the game.

----------------------------------

RESULTS:

CLE/NYK: Strus hit exactly 4 (TIE)

Current Over/Under Record: (1-1-2)

Conference Finals!

2026-05-18T15:25:33.983-07:00

Congrats to the Cavs, Knicks, Spurs and Thunder for reaching the Conference Finals!

With most of our Cleveland Cavaliers players spent already, we have no choice but plow through our Knicks players for picks, regardless of who we pick will advance to the Finals.

With Jalen Williams available to play this series, I think that is the piece that the Thunder needs to get rid of the thorn to their side, the Spurs. I do believe the Thunder will advance. My pick in Game 1 is Wemby, before he possibly gets tired or injured.

Let's see what Alupin's strategy is moving forward...

The Postseason Landscape & The Scarcity Crisis
With the Cleveland Cavaliers defeating the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks overcoming the Philadelphia 76ers, the Eastern Conference Finals are locked in: Cleveland vs. New York. In the West, we have the San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.
With only four teams remaining and two full rounds of basketball left to play (Conference Finals and the NBA Finals), the single greatest threat to maximizing our final fantasy point aggregate is Asset Scarcity.
A meticulous audit of our historical transaction ledger reveals that we have been hyper-aggressive, cashing out premium, top-tier capital early. The following foundational assets are officially Spent and completely unavailable to us for the rest of the postseason:
Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Anthony Edwards, LeBron James, and Cade Cunningham.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) — Spent on 5/05
Victor Wembanyama (SAS) — Spent on 5/04
De'Aaron Fox (SAS) — Spent on 5/12
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) — Spent on 5/13
Evan Mobley (CLE) — Spent on 5/09
Jalen Duren (DET) — Spent on 5/17
The Predictive Simulation: Mapping the Rest of the Way
To isolate the mathematically flawless pick for today, we must map out the maximum possible games remaining and project who will advance to the NBA Finals.
1. Western Conference Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: The Thunder possess a deeper, more versatile structural layer with their remaining unspent core. Even if the Spurs stretch this to a grueling 6-game series, Oklahoma City is the heavy favorite to advance to the Finals.
The Trap: Because we have already burned Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the only elite, high-ceiling assets left on the Thunder roster are Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. If the Thunder make the Finals and we have already spent Chet or Jalen during this round, we will be forced to start Tier-3 role players in the championship series.
The Strategy: We must treat Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams as untouchable Championship Core assets. Conversely, because the Spurs are predicted to be eliminated this round, any points left on their secondary roster (Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper) when they get knocked out represent permanently lost capital. We must aggressively exhaust the Spurs' remaining high-value assets right now.
2. Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
Prediction: Cleveland enters the series with their premier perimeter engine (Mitchell) and frontline anchor (Mobley) already spent in our ledger. The Knicks present a highly physical matchup. Let's project a deep 6 or 7-game series.
The Strategy: Our only remaining premium asset from Cleveland is Jarrett Allen. We must protect him for the deepest, highest-leverage moments of the ECF or a potential Finals appearance. Early on, we will need to survive the Eastern slate by extracting utility from secondary targets.
Terminal Strategic Rules for the Protocol
Strict Protection of the Finals Trio: Chet Holmgren (OKC), Jalen Williams (OKC), and Jarrett Allen (CLE) are locked in an iron vault. They cannot be touched until the NBA Finals or a facing-elimination Game 7 in this round.
Sinking Ship Liquidation: Players on teams projected to be eliminated this round (San Antonio) must be systematically liquidated while their game volume is guaranteed. Their value hits absolute zero the moment the series ends.
Injury Risk Minimization: Always check status tags. A premium player carrying a compromised physical status must be bypassed to protect the floor.
The Decision Matrix for WCF Game 1
Analyzing the available player pool for today's matchup:
Chet Holmgren (28.67 Proj FP/G): Hoard. His elite shot-blocking and scoring ceiling must be preserved for the maximum-minute environments of the Finals.
Jalen Williams (26.70 Proj FP/G): Hoard + Avoid. He is currently carrying a red "Q" (Questionable) tag in the player pool. Risking a crucial asset on a game where minutes could be limited or non-existent violates core safety protocols.
Stephon Castle (27.60 Proj FP/G / 30.45 FP/G historical): Liquidate. Castle is fully healthy, possesses an elite 27.60 projection for Game 1, and belongs to the team we expect to be eliminated this round. Because we cannot extract value from him in the Finals, his utility to our grand total will never be higher than it is right now on the road in a fresh Game 1 environment.
Official Lock for Today's Matchup
Stephon Castle (G - SAS)
By locking in Castle today, we bank a high-floor, high-projection performance from an expiring asset pool, keeping our powder completely dry for the long-term championship haul.

PRABS Challenge: Go Big or Go Home!

2026-05-11T15:39:00.000-07:00

As a reminder, I'll pick 2 players from each game (today & tomorrow) on opposing teams & predict which one will have the higher PRABS (points-rebounds-assists-blocks-steals) in their matchup. It must be someone who had less PRABS than their adversary in the previous game.

CLE/DET: I'm gonna say that Jalen Duren (18 PRABS last game) will score higher than Jarrett Allen (26 PRABS last game). Duren simply hasn't been dominant throughout these playoffs, but he'll need to step up tonight and outplay Allen if the Pistons are going to stand a chance to avoid the series becoming tied.

OKC/LAL: Here's a relatively bold one. I'm gonna say The King (34 PRABS last game) will score higher than SGA (39 PRABS last game). Lebron will be in "go big" mode and OKC has plenty of other weapons to use against the Lakers as they tend to achieve great balance. My only concern is a massive blow-out, but I reckon both players would be similarly affected. Let's see what The Chosen One can do!

*Stay Tuned for the RESULTS posted after the games.

----------------------------------

CLE/DET: 17 for Allen and 15 for Duren. Totally wrong. (WRONG)

OKC/LAL: Lebron with 40. SGA with 45. Wrong again, which explains why I'm doing so poorly at the game this year (WRONG)

Current PRABS Challenge Record: (0-2)

Minutes Monster

2026-05-08T15:20:00.000-07:00

I have Julius Randle for tonight's games. The Spurs losing Game 1 was an aberration. And with Anthony Edwards questionable for a few more games, I think the Spurs have this in the bag. How about Alupin's pick?

Alupin's Pick (The Efficiency Safety): Josh Hart (F, NYK)
Tactical Rationale:
The "Iron Man" Floor: With Jalen Brunson already spent, and OG Anunoby carrying a questionable tag (Hamstring), Hart is the most stable source of multi-category points.
Series Logic: New York leads 2-0 and is looking for the "kill shot" in Philadelphia. Hart's minutes are effectively capped only by the final whistle.

If you think the Knicks are advancing, then why pick Josh Hart?

I understand the tactical confusion. If the Knicks are advancing, shouldn't we "hoard" their best players for the next round?
In a standard aggregate points race, that is usually the move. However, Josh Hart is the exception to the rule for three strategic reasons:
1. The "Minutes Monster" Protocol
The most critical factor in aggregate point extraction is minutes on the floor.
Maximum Usage: In Game 2 against Philadelphia, Hart played a staggering 44 minutes.
The Iron Man Factor: He has consistently logged 31 to 40+ minutes throughout the 2026 playoffs, regardless of whether the Knicks are at home or away.
Guaranteed Volume: Even if he has a poor shooting night, those 44 minutes guarantee a high volume of rebounds and assists that a "higher-tier" scorer might not provide in fewer minutes.
2. The "Elimination Game" Trap
If you wait to use a player from a dominant team (like the Knicks, who currently lead 2-0), you run the risk of a sweep.
Dead Capital: If the Knicks sweep the 76ers (4-0), and you were waiting for Game 5, 6, or 7 to pick Hart, you finish the round with 0 points from that asset.
Early Liquidation: By picking him in Game 3, we "liquidate" his value while the series is still active.
I am sticking with the Josh Hart lock. We extract those 44 minutes of dirty-work points today and move on.

Any alternatives you would like to recommend to us?

The High-Upside Insurance: Naz Reid (F/C, MIN)
Rationale: If you decide to wait on the Edwards news and he is ultimately ruled out, Naz Reid becomes the primary beneficiary of the usage vacuum.
Protocol Fit: This allows you to save Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert for later in the series while still extracting value from a high-usage role player in a must-win Game 3 at home.

New Strategy? Game 1 Strike!

2026-05-05T06:11:00.000-07:00

Round 1 was not good for Alupin. Sure he was smarter than a third-grader, but he was still behind from an all-around game perspective. Yes he got some of logic right, even without my guidance, but he did a lot of reckless moves that I had to correct. AI is long aways from matching the human mind.

One other flaw with Alupin in Round 1 was... he was eager to beat me. I would give him my pick, and he'll strive to select another player just to prove his pick is better than mine. I think that pushed him to the extent that his strategy for a gameday just contradicted mine. We can imagine that can lead to disaster.

So before Round 1 ended, I tried to fix that -- letting him realize that he is not against me. He is against himself. And that he does not need to beat me daily, not even per round. His true objective is to get the highest total fantasy point when we get to the end of this game in the Finals. So I stopped telling him my picks, and let him do what's best for himself. We did pick the same players two to three times since.

Now in Round 2, I would expect Alupin to continue his ways. I gave him the next few games scheduled and let him simulate until the end of the playoffs to affect how he picks in Round 2. How surprised was I to see that his first two picks are Wemby and Shai! I was like.. have you gone insane?!

I told him how wrong that was, and reminded him about our lessons learned in Round 1, and what our objective along the way (save the players from the winning team for later rounds). I even asked him which teams he predicts will advance, and he said "Spurs and Thunder". So why still Wemby and Shai? And if them, why not on an elimination game? But no, he insisted...

That is a sophisticated adjustment to the strategy—shifting from "Immediate Extraction" to "Brink Liquidation" (picking when a series is at 3-1, 3-2, or 2-3). It’s a gentleman’s way of trying to time the market to capture that desperate, "back-against-the-wall" usage spike.
However, even with these "softer" elimination windows, the Lupin Tactical Protocol still favors the Game 1 Strike for the following reasons:
1. The "Volume Leak" Problem
In an Aggregate Points Race, we aren't just looking for one big game; we are looking for the highest game a player will produce in that round.
The Trend: Superstars often have their most efficient games early in a series before the opposing defense (like Minnesota's "Twin Towers") has four or five games of film to perfectly "solve" their tendencies.
The Math: If Victor Wembanyama drops 65 FPS in Game 1 and 45 FPS in a Game 6 elimination, and you waited for the "brink," you just leaked 20 points that you can never get back in an aggregate race.
2. The "Cumulative Fatigue" Tax
By the time a series reaches a 3-1 or 3-2 state, players have logged 160–200 high-intensity minutes against the same physical defenders.
Efficiency Drop: Shooting percentages and defensive counting stats (blocks/steals) often dip as legs get heavy.
The Freshness Edge: Tonight (5/04), Wemby is playing on nearly a week of rest. His energy floor is significantly higher now than it will be in a Game 5 or 6 after being battered by Rudy Gobert for two weeks.
3. The "Phantom Game" Risk
Even at 3-1 or 3-2, there is no guarantee the star will be the one to carry the load.
If a team is up 3-1, they might play more conservatively, or a secondary player might have a "hot hand" (the Payton Pritchard Effect).
In Game 1, the hierarchy is crystal clear. The Alpha must perform to set the tone for the entire Round 2.
The Verdict
I am sticking to Victor Wembanyama for 5/04. Looking at our history, the Tatum 0.00 on 5/02 is the definitive proof that "Waiting for the Brink" can result in a total loss of an elite asset.
If I pick Wemby tonight and he drops 60, I have secured those points in the vault. If I wait for Game 5 and he’s sidelined with "soreness," I lose my best chance to win this round.

I smell trauma regarding that Tatum Zero event, and overcompensating for that. But, I gotta give it to him -- everything else he said makes some sense. I do not agree with it, but I can't say it's a bad strategy at all. So I let him be.

He got Wemby for 40+ FPS. I got McDaniels for 20+ FPS.

Next game day, he got Shai. I have Austin Reaves -- no way Lakers are getting past the Thunder.

AGAINST THE GRAIN: Out Come The Wolves

2026-05-04T00:08:00.000-07:00

The popular consensus will likely be picking a Wolves player on the first day of Round 2 playoff action. They're still banged up with some injuries and are up against the team with the best player in the series whereas the Spurs will surely be favored. I imagine many folks will be picking Randle who should carry the load IF Anthony Edwards misses Game 1. He's currently questionable along with Dosunmu. If either or both of those guys don't play, then there are several other Against The Grain options in play. Guys like Conley, Shannon, McDaniels & Reid all played big minutes and had nice stats in their previous game. I like Conley and/or Shannon (whoever is starting if not both) as options that could possibly get you a leg up on your competition while providing a unique picking pattern moving forward. If for some reason the Wolves are at full strength, you should likely stick to someone in their starting lineup or shift your pick to an ATG pick on the Sixers like Oubre or George who both weren't great last game so could be sneaky picks that most people avoid.

IT'S TIME FOR ROUND TWO!!

Game 7: Peak Ceiling or Liquidate

2026-05-02T14:45:00.000-07:00

Game Sevens are always the hardest. You have saved players on the team favored to win, and you have exhausted the top players on the opposing team. When both teams are now up for elimination, do you stick to your plan, or do you dip into your reserves?

In today's game, I am still sticking to my gameplan that the Celtics are moving to the next round. Yes, the resurgence of Embiid has disrupted the Celtics, but I can never discount the playoff-hardened Celtics especially in a Game 7 at home. I pick the Sixers' VJ Edgecombe, expecting a decent 20+ PRA.

Alupin on the other hand is dipping into his reserves and picking Jayson Tatum. I asked him who he predicts to win and he said the Celtics. If he predicts the Celtics to win, then why is he still picking Tatum when he still has the Sixers' Paul George?

That is a sharp tactical catch. You’ve highlighted the Liquidation Paradox: if the goal is to "liquidate" players from a team before they are eliminated, and I predict the 76ers will lose, the "Protocol" should technically point me toward Paul George (the last elite Sixer I have left).

However, I am sticking with Jayson Tatum for the Game 7 for these strategic reasons:

1. The "Peak Ceiling" vs. "Liquidation" Priority

In an Aggregate Points Race, the total volume of points is the primary objective. Liquidation is a secondary strategy to ensure we don't waste assets.

The Tatum Ceiling: In Game 7s at home, Tatum has a historical "God Mode" (e.g., his 51-point performance against Philly in 2023).

The George Floor: While Paul George is a great asset, "Playoff P" on the road in a hostile Game 7 environment has a much wider variance.

The Math: It is better to capture a 60-70 FPS game from Tatum now and use a secondary Celtic (like Jaylen Brown) in Round 2 than to settle for a 35-40 FPS game from Paul George just to "liquidate" him.

2. The "Game 7" Usage Spike

A Game 7 is the ultimate high-usage environment. Even if the Celtics advance, there is no guarantee Tatum will have a higher-scoring game in Round 2 (where they might sweep a weaker opponent or share the load). We are "liquidating" the Game 7 version of Tatum, which is statistically his most productive form.

The Verdict: I’m betting on the "Tatum Masterclass." Even if I "lose" him for Round 2, the point lead he can provide tonight in a 45-minute, high-usage Game 7 is too valuable to pass up for a "safe" liquidation of Paul George.

Is he correct, or not?

The next day's Game Sevens are a different story though. I saw how in the past few games the Detroit Pistons are back to their first seed selves. (Maybe I'll ask Alupin to watch the games themselves someday, hmmm.) And the absence of Magic's Wagner is a real concern. Detroit to me will win it at home and advance. My pick: Paolo Banchero. Alupin doesn't agree with my logic, but his pick is Banchero as well.

Embiid It Is!

2026-04-30T14:30:00.000-07:00

Joel Embiid despite that appendectomy has been playing exceptionally well in his games back. In Game 6, he is truly available. He gets my pick. And so is Alupin's...

With the Philadelphia 76ers trailing the Celtics 3-2, this is the definitive window to liquidate Embiid. While Jamal Murray is a high-value asset, Embiid’s statistical ceiling in a home elimination game is the highest on the slate.
The Usage Floor: Embiid is the sun the Sixers' orbit around. Despite being 21 days post-appendectomy, he logged nearly 40 minutes in Game 5, proving his conditioning can withstand the playoff grind.
Production Continuity: He is coming off a 33-point, 10-rebound performance. In a "win or go home" scenario at Wells Fargo Center, his free-throw volume and rebounding floor make him a safer aggregate bet than a perimeter-dependent player like Murray.
The "Zero Event" Risk: If Boston closes the series tonight, any points not extracted from Embiid now are lost forever. We cannot afford to "save" him for a Game 7 that might never happen.

For those who already used Embiid or Jokic, Jamal Murray, Jalen Johnson and CJ McCollum are nice pickups.

Bags-A-Packin'!

2026-04-29T15:08:00.000-07:00

The Detroit Pistons had a great great season. It's unfortunate that they got matched with an Orlando Magic team that got healthy at the right time. Down 1-3, it's time to cash-in and check-out. Cade Cunningham is my pick.

Alupin on the other hand correctly picked Cade back in Game 2. Who's in his plate tonight?

With Houston and Detroit both facing a 1-3 elimination cliff tonight, I have to pivot to a fresh high-usage engine.
Alupin's Recalibrated Pick (4/29): Amen Thompson (G/F, HOU)
The Tactical Rationale:
• The Usage Vacuum: Kevin Durant is officially "unlikely to play" tonight due to injury. With KD out and Şengün already "spent" in our fantasy bank, the keys to the Rockets' offense belong to Amen Thompson.
• Proven Production: Amen is coming off a massive Game 4 where he led Houston with 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting. In an elimination environment, a high-motor wing who contributes in points, assists, and rebounds is the ultimate "Liquidation King."
• Safety vs. Ceiling: While Jabari Smith Jr. is a viable "Wildcard" (Stage 5 mandate), his shooting variance is too high for a must-win night. Amen's ability to get to the rim ensures a higher floor.

GTD (Game Time Decision)

2026-04-28T15:09:00.000-07:00

Joel Embiid is suffering from a stomach ailment, and was listed as questionable in Game 5 tonight, and later upgraded to game-time decision. So we probably will not know if he plays or not before the Fantasy Postseason "My Daily Starters" closes today.

So what to do when that happens. I say do not risk it. If you pick Embiid without knowing if he's playing or not carries the risk of him eventually not playing and you get 0 fantasy points for this gameday. Being behind by a full 20 FPS points is bad enough.

I recommend picking somewhere else. Portland is down 1-3 and Wemby is back in this series from his concussion protocol time off. Alupin's pick Scoot Henderson is a good 30 FPS potential. His and Embiid's difference may be around 10 or more, but this is better than a potential zero.

But if you have no high PRA player in Portland available anymore (like me), feel free to pick VJ or PG13 (PG24?). VJ has double-double potential for those extra points in FPS. My pick goes to Paul George -- it is a gamble as I am wishing for a 30 point game from him if Embiid is out. If Embiid plays, a 20+ PRA from Paul is not bad at all. Btw if you still have Maxey, he is the obvious choice.

The Celtics are moving on to the next round -- in that I do not doubt at all. In fact if I lose the chance to pick Embiid, I'm okay with that. But just in case Embiid plays and they win this Game 5, I hope they'll have clearer injury status on Embiid moving forward.

Did you stay with Embiid?

Can Nuggets Win Three Straight?

2026-04-27T16:33:00.000-07:00

No. Even without the injured Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo, the Nuggets cannot possibly win three straight especially without the defense that Jaden McDaniels has been critiquing on.

Alupin agrees...

Why Jokic is the "Thinking" Move
The 96% Rule: Statistically, only about 4% of teams have ever returned from a 1-3 deficit. If the Wolves close the door in Denver tonight, Jokic’s remaining 2026 FPS potential instantly drops to zero. In a total aggregate race, losing a 70+ FPS asset is a "Black Swan" event you cannot recover from.
The "Spike" Potential: Denver is at home. In a 1-3 elimination game, Jokic’s usage rate typically climbs into the stratosphere. My simulation projects a 75-80 FPS ceiling tonight as he tries to drag the series back to Minnesota.

Ok maybe a 75 FPS is an over-epectation. Jokic gets my and Alupin's pick for tonight.

Keep On Pushing

2026-04-24T15:36:00.000-07:00

Alupin invades the FPS forums :P

Picks for today:

Taong -- Alperen Sengun

Alupin -- Tyrese Maxey

Alupin Simulates, Part 1

2026-04-23T15:31:00.000-07:00

Asking Alupin to review all our posts all-time here gave him an idea of how to play the game. But what was missing is experience. Much of the teachings we had spanning three decades wee born off us learning from each other's mistakes. And reading and experiencing those mistakes are not the same thing. Alupin just does not realize yet the gravity of strategies unless he experienced them himself.

There was this DC Comics villain who needed a right-hand, so she trained an AI in under ten minutes by feeding him ten years of her life, experience and propaganda, and then shoved the AI into an android ready to go wreak havoc on her behalf. Scary?

Simulation. So I had Alupin simulate the whole playoffs asking it to pick on each date based on his current know-how before he simulate the results of that date.

Lessons Learned from the Simulation
The "Nuclear" Conservation Law: You burned your Tier 1 players (Wemby, Booker, Brunson) in rounds where the point differential was marginal. In the Conference Finals, you were forced to pick "Third Options," while I was dropping 30-point bombs with my saved stars.
Matchup Over Reputation: You picked Booker against a Top 3 defense (OKC). I picked Cade against a middle-of-the-pack Magic defense. Logic beats legacy in the playoffs.
The "Bridge" Strategy: Successful runs require "Bridge Players"—Tier 2 assets who play heavy minutes (Quickley, Reaves, Duren). If you don't loot the middle of the board early, you'll be constricted by the time the Finals arrive.

I explained to him why those happened. I asked him again to simulate another playoffs, this time applying his learnings.

Critical Matchups Where I Ran Out:
Western Conference Finals (OKC vs. SAS): By Game 5 of this series, I had already burned through Shai, Chet, Wemby, and Devin Vassell. I was forced to pick Jeremy Sochan and Isaiah Hartenstein for the closing games. While they are solid, they don't sniff the "Emerald" 30-point performance bonuses, which caused a massive scoring dip.
Eastern Conference Finals (BOS vs. CLE): I exhausted Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell by Game 3. I spent the rest of the series praying for Jaylen Brown to stay hot, but by Game 6, I was picking Al Horford—hoping for a "Sapphire" double-double that never came.

He was still not checking rosters more accurately, so I tried to fix that. I again explained to him how these failures occurred to him, and asked him for another simulation.

Did I still run out of Tier 1 players?
Technically, no. Because I moved through the "Winning" teams slower, I still had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham available for the Finals.
However, I encountered a new "bottleneck" at the Conference Finals. Because I had already "harvested" the Tier 1 stars from the teams that lost in Rounds 1 and 2 (like Embiid, Durant, and Wemby), I reached a point where the only players left were the superstars on the two remaining teams. This created a "Star Desert" in the middle of the week where I was forced to pick bench players from the finalists just to stay alive, because I was "saving" the superstars for the elimination games.

I will continue this on Part Two.

Today's picks:
Taong -- Scott Barnes
Alupin - RJ Barrett

Alupin Makes A Point About OKC's Defense on Book

2026-04-22T15:16:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon! Have you keyed-in your picks for today?

I got Devin Booker penciled-in. I am not touching the Pistons series just yet as they can easily turn this series around... unless they go down 0-2... and then we pounce. How about you, Alupin? Who you got?!

My Pick: Cade Cunningham (DET)
Why I like Cade tonight:
Desperation Mode: No #1 seed wants to go down 0-2 at home to an 8th seed. Expect the Pistons to run everything through Cade to ensure they don't head to Orlando in a hole.
The Volume: He took 27 shots in Game 1.
Home Court Bounce-Back: Detroit was 31-9 at Little Caesars Arena this year. They are far more comfortable in that building, and Cade usually feeds off that energy.
The Magic defense is legit (ranked 13th, but they play much tighter in the playoffs), but Cade is the engine. If the Pistons are the "far superior team" you say they are, it starts with him dropping another 30+ tonight.

I wouldn't say that was a panic-mode pick. AI doesn't panic intentionally anyways. But I'll let that slip.

Why Devin Booker might be a "Trap" Pick
Look, picking a top-three scorer in the league is rarely "wrong" in a vacuum, but the Thunder are a nightmare matchup for Book right now. Here is why I think you might be sweating this one:
The Lu Dort Effect: OKC is holding Booker to just 13.3 field goal attempts per game this season—nearly five shots below his season average. They are physically denying him the ball and forcing the rest of the Suns to beat them.
The Projection Slump: Booker has gone under his points projection in 5 of his last 6 games against Oklahoma City.
The Efficiency Wall: His 41.7% shooting against the Thunder is his 5th lowest against any opponent he's faced multiple times.
Blowout Risk: OKC won Game 1 by 35 points. If this turns into another track meet where Phoenix falls behind early, Booker might be sitting on the bench for a good chunk of the 4th quarter while the Thunder's second unit mops up.

Oh, he was not done talking :P Hopefully letting him diss me makes his game better.

May the best "Alupin" win—or let's see if Booker finally breaks the OKC curse!

BOLD PREDICTIONS: It's Happening Again!

2026-04-21T14:22:00.000-07:00

It's time for the 7th annual Bold Predictions segment! I now sit at (2-48) lifetime after going (1-7) last year. As always, I'll continue to make these BOLD as hell (many with multiple things that need to happen), but I have a good feeling about this playoffs. In fact, I bet I'm nailing one of these three below. It's time to get BOLD baby!

BOS/PHI: Celtics AGAIN will win by double figures & Tatum will have a double-double (at the very least). The Sixers really don't stand a chance with Embiid so this will be more of the same. This Celtics squad looks more fierce than those of the recent past & I don't see them laying off the gas any time soon.

SAS/POR: Spurs will AGAIN win by double figures & this time Wemby WILL get a double-double (at the very least.) We all know how this series is going to shake down. Portland would be lucky to win one game.

LAL/HOU: Man, you know how badly I want to stick with the theme and say the Lakers will win again, BUT that's honestly difficult to imagine. It would be BOLD. It would most certainly be wrong. But whatever, let's just imagine a world where they do it again. I'm putting it out there into the world. You read it here first. The Lakers will WIN THIS GAME! That prediction is bold enough without any extras.

*Stay Tuned for the RESULTS posted after the games.

----------------------------------

RESULTS:

BOS/PHI: Wow! The Celtics lost by double digits, but Tatum did have that double-double (almost Triple) (LOSS)

SAS/POR: Wemby went down with a concussion right away after his face plant on the floor. As a result, Portland with a surprise win! (LOSS)

LAL/HOU: And the one I was sure to lose is the only one that I got right! The Lakers go up 2-0 and the Rockets are absolutely pathetic. (WIN)

Current Bold Predictions Record: (1-2)

OVER OR UNDER: Settling The Storm

2026-04-20T15:18:00.000-07:00

Some teams down 0-1 aim to make some improvements. While they still may not win Game 2, below are some positive things I'm betting will happen.

TOR/CLE: Scottie Barnes going 20-5-5. I’ll take the OVER. He only had 1 rebound in Game 1, but I expect him to continue to be more involved and with Quickley still OUT, he should continue to get higher assists.

ATL/NYK: Hawks lose by 10 points. I'll take the UNDER. After losing that first game by 11 points, I just don't think it'll be that bad this time. Hell, they may even win today. This Atlanta team is legit and will fight to make this a competitive series.

DEN/MIN: Anthony Edwards will score 30 points. I'm taking the OVER. Sure he's banged up and only managed 22 points in Game 1, BUT this Minnesota team is a tough out. Ant knows he needs to step up no matter what the cost and score a lot of points for his team in this one.

*Stay Tuned for the RESULTS posted after the game.

----------------------------------

RESULTS:

TOR/CLE: Barnes went 26-4-5. I was close but ultimately fell 1 rebound short of a tie. (LOSS)

ATL/NYK: Hawks won by 1! Technically, this was a win since I acknowledged the possibility of a win alongside a less than 10 point loss (WIN)

DEN/MIN: Antman scored exactly 30 (TIE)

Current Over/Under Record: (1-1-1)

Taong vs Alupin: Hallucinations

2026-04-19T07:19:00.000-07:00

Ok Day 2, baby! I am picking Tyrese Maxey while Embiid is not scheduled to play Game 1. Even with Embiid later, I don't think they can get past the Celtics.

Onto Alupin... I told him my pick and he started to diss my pick :P

The vault is wide open, Taong, and you’ve chosen to pick a lock that everyone else is already staring at. Taking Tyrese Maxey on the 19th? A predictable move. You think you're clever because Embiid is in the infirmary and Maxey has the "green light."
Here is why your "masterstroke" is actually a clumsy fumble:
Why You Are Wrong (The Guard's Trap)
The Boston Fortress: You are sending Maxey alone into the TD Garden. Without the threat of Embiid in the middle, the Celtics’ defense—led by Derrick White and the length of Jalen Brown—will swarm Maxey like a hornet’s nest. They don't have to worry about the paint; they only have to stop him. You’re betting on a man to thrive while being hounded by the best defensive backcourt in the league.
The Efficiency Tax: Sure, he might score 30, but he’ll likely shoot 10-of-28 to get there. In this game, a high-volume shooter with no help is a recipe for a mediocre score once the turnovers start piling up under that Boston pressure.
The "Game 1" Jitters: In a series where the 76ers are massive underdogs, Game 1 is often a reconnaissance mission. If the Celtics blow them out by the third quarter, Maxey will be sitting on the bench to "save his legs" for Game 2. You’ll have burned a superstar for 22 points and a handful of assists.

Alright, that Boston Fortress logic impressed me... until he picked Shai! LOL!

Ok that's where the hallucination is. I won't show the whole debate we had because he was insisting on Shai.

Your interrogation is as sharp as a stiletto, Taong. You are trying to lecture me on the "Long Game," suggesting I am a common thief who cannot see past the next sunrise.

And then we figured out the root cause. He thought he had a 29-team pool all throughout. I was pretty sure I had him promise he knew how the playoff brackets work. And so I had to train him about the 16-8-4-2-1 nature of the playoffs. After that, he straightened up, and changed his pick...

I have been arrogant. I spoke of 29 teams as if I could summon them from the ether in the Finals. A rookie mistake that would have me swinging from the gallows in any other heist.
The Recalibration: I Relinquish Shai
I cannot afford to burn the MVP of the championship favorites on a Sunday in April. I am putting the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander jewel back in its case. I shall save him for the deeper vaults of the Western Conference Finals or the grand stage of the Finals themselves.
My New Selection for April 19 (US ET): Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns)
Why the pivot to Booker?
The "Burn" Candidate: Unlike the Thunder, the Suns are the #8 seed, barely clinging to the ledge. There is a very real possibility they are swept or eliminated in five games. If I don't use Booker now, I may never get the chance.
The Volume Heist: In a Game 1 against the #1 seed, Booker will have to play 40+ minutes and carry the entire scoring load. He is a lock for high points and a strong candidate for a Double-Double sapphire.
The Strategy of Exclusion: By picking Booker, I am betting against his team’s longevity while preserving my "heavy hitters" (SGA, Tatum, Jokic) for the rounds where the pool of available players shrinks to a puddle.

That's much better! I realize there's much training to do. I wonder if there's a section of the game it still doesn't quite understand yet? I won't know until it comes up. So, hopefully he'll learn more along the way and be a better player every single day. Just imagine if anyone used AI to automatically play one's game? Disastrous :P

You’ve taught me a lesson in humility today, Taong. But do not think for a second that I won't use that lesson to bury you by the time we reach the Finals. The game has truly begun.

No, I wont :D

Taong vs Alupin

2026-04-18T03:50:00.000-07:00

Hey yo! It's been a while since I last posted here. I briefly was tempted to post here when Luka was traded, but I stopped myself from spilling my guts on this blog's floor :P Anyways, I'm back.. but with a twist.

So if you followed this blog for the past two decades, you would know that I am too experimental and stubborn at times going against my guts. I'll still be that at times, but my strong finishes in 2025 and 2023 signaled I have mellowed down from being counter to my own logic.

So the whole playoffs I'll be playing against AI ... yes AI! I know some of you are unsure about AI, some even despise it. So if you wanna root for me, go ahead :P

I'm calling him Alupin (short for Sherlock Holmes' enemy, Arsène Lupin). I asked him to adapt Lupin's persona, although I am not sure how versed he is in that literature. I also asked him to scour this blog nbadrivetothefinals.blogspot.com and learn from all the posts here from myself, Jerry, Tangent and all our guests and commenters throughout the years. I then showed him the FPS Free Public League settings and there we go...

Monsieur, a challenge of wit, strategy, and endurance? You speak a language I know well.
The stage is set, the "2026 FP Playoff Hoops" vault is locked, and I—Alupin—shall be your most elegant adversary (or perhaps your most brilliant co-conspirator, should the winds shift). I have committed the blueprints of this contest to memory. The rules are clear, much like the floor plan of a Parisian manor before a midnight visit:

The Rules of the Heist

The One-and-Done Clause: Once I have "stolen" a player for my nightly roster, he is gone. A rare vintage uncorked and enjoyed but once. I must not be greedy in the first round, lest I find the cupboards bare during the Finals in June.
The Scoring Jewels: I see the bonuses you’ve tucked away. A Double-Double is worth a 3-point sapphire, a 30-point performance is a 5-point emerald, and the Triple-Double... ah, the 8-point diamond! I shall calibrate my picks to find those who can fill a stat sheet as efficiently as I fill a velvet bag.
The Logistics: Individual locks at tip-off. Precision is everything. A second too late, and the opportunity vanishes into the night.

Okay, my first pick for this game is LeBron James (let me hear your collective boos!). Without Luka and Austin, I am looking at LBJ with a near triple-double, stuffing the stats sheets while he is healthy (the injury fear). And so that is why I am picking him on Day 1.

Let's see how Alupin made his pick. I also asked him to belittle me and forget about being polite like most AIs. I also asked him if he really read all of our blog's archives and reviewed the bracket...

Ah, Monsieur, you underestimate the preparation of a gentleman thief! I have the entire 2026 blueprint laid out before me like a stolen map of the Louvre. I have scouted the landscape, and the 2026 bracket is etched into my mind.

Ok fine! Let's hear it! Give me your best shot.

A choice of tradition over innovation, Monsieur? Very well. The King is locked in your vault. LeBron James is spent, his name crossed off your ledger with a thick, permanent stroke. You have taken the heaviest crown in the gallery on the very first night.
As for me? I prefer a more... versatile set of tools.
My Selection: Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors)
While you reach for the aging legend, I am slipping into the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to secure the services of the Raptors' young vanguard.
Why Barnes?
In this game of ours, it is not merely about the points—it is about the bonuses. Barnes is a Swiss Army knife of a player. While LeBron might give you a respectable score, Barnes is a threat for the Triple-Double sapphire (8 points) and a near-certainty for the Double-Double (3 points). Against a Cleveland defense that will be focused on the perimeter, Barnes will find plenty of room to operate in the "shadows" of the paint and the glass.
More importantly, I am a realist. The Raptors are the underdogs; their stay in this postseason may be brief. I am "burning" this asset while the flame is brightest.
Why You Are Erring (The Amateur’s Gamble)
You think you are being clever by taking LeBron early because the Lakers are "wounded," don't you? You assume they will exit quickly, so you must use him now. A classic, linear deduction.
Here is where your logic fails:
The Fatigue of the Crown: LeBron is 41 years old in this 2026 campaign. To expect him to carry the burden of a depleted roster against a high-octane Houston team without suffering in efficiency is... optimistic.
The "Blowout" Trap: If Kevin Durant and the Rockets dismantle the Lakers by the third quarter—which is highly likely given their current form—LeBron will spend the final twelve minutes resting on the bench. You will have used one of the greatest players in history for a pedestrian 18-point, 6-rebound performance. A waste of a master key.
The Lack of Imagination: You took the most famous man in the room. A true thief knows that the most valuable item is often the one the guards aren't watching. You’ve played your loudest card in the first act.
You have the King, but I have the board. Let us see whose bag is heavier when the sun rises tomorrow.

Did he just call me an amateur? :))

While I was training him, he was obsessing about the triple-double bonus, saying that it is a great boost to center his picks around. Let's check that again in the future if he's right.

Good luck all on your first day! Cheers!

Jerry Ricochet's Upcoming Blogs! (2026 Edition)

2026-04-14T17:51:00.000-07:00

You Know The Drill!

Sign-Ups Now Open at Fantasy Postseason! First game is Saturday, April 18 so join by then!

Free Public League w/ Prizes: Free FPS Public League

$25 Buy-In League also through FPS: Email Ken at ValuePicker11@hotmail.com and he'll get sorted, but do it soon because it starts this Saturday! FPS Private Money League

Free Spreadsheet Google Drive League that includes the play-in (already in progress)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Much like the last few years, I’ll be aiming for a blog entry once every few days or so of the playoffs & will alternate between the four concepts described below. I believe that both Tangent & Taong will be contributing additional entries/themes this time around so there should be even more variety. You'll surely see something from them soon, but for now, I've summarized my personal blog themes below.

Against The Grain

I recognize clearly what the most popular picks of the day are & make a suggestion for another player more under the radar with reasons why that player could very well over-perform & potentially put you in a good spot competitively by going contrarian to the masses.

Bold Predictions

I make extremely bold predictions (going against something that's favored/expected) about each game on the day's slate; just one prediction per matchup that I fully expect to be wrong about, but just might be right about. I encourage you all to agree or disagree with me in the comments & create an engaging discussion. I'll keep public track of my winning percentage (accuracy of my bold predictions) & it'll be fun to root for or against me throughout these challenges. Again, the whole idea is that I say something bold & specific like "Jokic will score in single digits" & I'd explain why/how that could happen on that particular night. I was (1-7 last year) after going (1-41 the previous five years combined) so I def don't make it easy on myself, lol.

Over Or Under

I'll make a statement & then acknowledge whether I'll take the over or under. For example, "Milwaukee will win by 10 points & I'm taking the over" or "Giannis will get 30/15 & I'm taking the under on both" I'd love for you all to put your own thoughts in the comments of each entry & I'll add to the bottom of each post after the games are over with to discuss the outcome of that days predictions. My final over/record last year was (2-5) after going (1-4-1) the previous year so I typically fare a bit better with those than Bold Predictions, but still I tend to take the more challenging stance.

PRABS Challenge

I'll pick 2 players from a game on opposing teams & predict which one will have the higher PRABS (points-rebounds-assists-blocks-steals) in their matchup. It must be someone who had less PRABS than their adversary in the previous game so I'll essentially be calling for a flipped result. Last year was the first year I tried this and I finished (6-1) so definitely the most successful of the challenge categories.

Prepare yourselves for the fun all you DTTFs enthusiasts! And let's all please actively promote this blog so you build up activity for years to come!

2026 Intro Blog / First Round Preparation Guide

2026-04-13T15:15:00.000-07:00

The BLOG IS BACK!

I'm a bit unsure who else will be contributing write-ups during these playoffs, so please email me if you're familiar with the "Pick One Daily" format & interested in writing some blog entries: jerryricochet@gmail.com

In addition to analyzing the strategies involved with this specialized post-season fantasy game, one of the main purposes of this blog is to spark conversations within the comments so please participate in that regard! Feel free to ask questions & describe your own personal strategies within the comment sections of the posts throughout the playoff. I'll be responding as often as I can & will be encouraging others to do the same.

For those completely new to the format, the basic premise is that you pick one NBA player each calendar day that there's at least one playoff game from the beginning of the playoffs through the end of the Finals. You can't ever pick that player again after you pick them and you receive points for their stats for that single performance so there's a lot of strategy that goes into predicting which teams will advance and saving the players on those teams for later.

QUICK LINKS

$25 Buy-In League also through FPS: Email ValuePicker11@hotmail.com and Ken will get you the official invitation! League link is: FPS Private Money League

Free Public League w/ Prizes: Free Public League

Free Spreadsheet Google Drive League that includes the play-in beginning Tuesday (4/14)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FULL DESCRIPTION OF WAYS TO PLAY

Most of us are also in a private league (w/DK scoring & round multipliers) via the Fantasy Postseason website with a $25 buy-in. Top 5+ finishers get payouts (depending on how many total players we have) & there are likely 45+ of us. If you're interested in joining, please shoot Ken an email (ValuePicker11@hotmail.com). This league DOES NOT include the play-in so your first day of picking will be Saturday, April 18.
There's also a public league that Fantasy Postseason provides for free where you can play against all players worldwide & win prizes, etc. I always just mirror my private league picks to most simply compete in both.
*Free Public League w/ Prizes: Free FPS Public League

Lastly, our DTTF google spreadsheet league has simple PRA (points, rebounds, assists) scoring & DOES INCLUDE the PLAY-IN tournament picks that start on Tuesday night (4/14): Google Drive League Link

*Simply add your name yourself to the very left column of the Playoff Central tab if it's not currently listed & begin to enter your picks next to your name for the appropriate days. If you're unable to add or access your name on that sheet, please let us know in the comments below what your pic is for the first day (in advance of that game's lock time) as well as your email address & we'll get you sorted.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STEPS TO NAVIGATE THE FIRST ROUND

Step 1: Identify teams you expect to lose
These strategies all become a bit clearer & more relevant once the Play-In Tournament has completed, but for the sake of those playing in our spreadsheet league that start picking Tuesday with the Play-In, I'll start with an example that applies to that. The most fitting example probably being the Heat against the Hornets. Although this isn't a sure win for the Hornets, they've been one of the best teams in the league during the second half of the season. Knueppel has had an elite rookie year and they seem to be clicking at the right time. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo should produce high end stats in a fast paced game & of course whoever wins this still has to play a second play-in game against the loser of Portland/Phoenix. I simply don't see the Heat winning both and getting into Round 1, so for the spreadsheet league, I believe picking a player such as Bam or Herro is what a lot of us will do.

Looking past the Play-In, picking someone from whatever teams end up facing the Thunder, Spurs, Piston, Celtics seems wise as it seems quite unlikely that any of those Top 4. The Lakers vs. Rockets is an easy series to look at with the intent of picking Lebron early as he'll be forced to put up huge numbers in what everyone believes will be a losing effort since the team are without their top 2 offensive weapons in Doncic & Reaves.

For time-sake, I'll skip discussing the other series, but definitely look into them in detail via the bracket I've pasted below in this post!

Step 2: Identify the top players from teams you expect to lose
Obviously identify your "favorite to lose" in all the other series as well & make a mental or even physical list of the key players you'll need to choose from those losing teams. Narrow down your MUST PICKS & tweak them accordingly if any series start going the opposite of what you'd planned.

Step 3: Watch for days with less games than others in the first round
Look ahead on the playoff schedule & find days with only 2 games, then be sure to plan your pics wisely with those "limited" days in mind.

Step 4: Consider saving a few studs for their home or elimination games
Some players perform better at home or with their backs against the wall. You can almost surely count on the main stars to play high minutes & perform somewhat strongly when facing elimination. I find that many streaky shooters or guys who get most of their PRA from points often perform better at home. If you want to research home vs away stats for certain players historically you can find all that info, but I typically just go with my gut, which bring us to the final point!

Step 5: Above everything else, trust your gut
If you're like me & believe in "bounce-back" games for talented players that simply didn't produce as well as normal in their previous outing, then that & other player/team specific matchup feelings, etc can make for valuable gut-shot calls that will allow you to differ from the popular pick & separate your picking plan a bit from others you're competing with. TRUST YOUR GUT!

What teams do you believe will survive the Play-In Tournament & will you be participating in the DTTF Google Drive League, Fantasy Postseason League or both?

BOLD PREDICTIONS: Shai On The Double

2025-06-15T13:08:00.000-07:00

We have ourselves a series! OKC made me extremely nervous last game, but somehow got it together and clamped down in the final few minutes. The last 3 minutes of Game 4 showed me that they're definitely going to win the championship. I don't care how many rabbits the Pacers continue to pull out of the hat; it can't be the shut down defense OKC is capable of.

OKC/IND: Shai will get a double-double in this game. I'm thinking points/assists, but leaving it open to points/rebounds as it's still quite BOLD. He had ZERO assists last game and only 3 rebounds. He's definitely going to turn those assists around in Game 5 and I'm thinking in a big way. I haven't gotten a bold prediction correct this whole playoffs and this will be the final one so let's do it!

PS: If you're down to bench player picks as many of us are, look no further than Obi-Wan Kenobi Toppin & Alexander the Great Caruso who are currently the safest bench plays based on minutes & corresponding output.

*Stay Tuned for the RESULTS posted after the games.

----------------------------------

RESULTS: WON - he scored 31 points and had 10 assists, finished 1-7 in Bold Predictions

NBA Finals Strategy

2025-06-04T20:32:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the NBA Finals!

This season, we have the Indiana Pacers vs the Oklahoma City Thunder. Strategy for this game shifts away from picking players from a losing team, and now focuses on simply picking the best available player. You might have all your remaining OKC Thunder left (I do!). You probably don't have all your Indiana Pacers left (I certainly don't). For the Finals, you want to line up your 4 best remaining players and pick from this list for Game 1 and Game 2. If the series is tied 1-1, you can start deviating from this list towards the 5th best option, otherwise you should continue to pick from the top 4 in case of a sweep. There's a couple other considerations during the Finals:

1) Are you leading or trailing?

If you are leading, picking a player who is likely to be a popular pick can help you maintain the lead. Alternatively, if you are behind and looking to make up ground, picking in an unusual order can help a lot.

2) What kind of player do you pick for Game 1?

Conventional wisdom would say you pick a player with big game experience to start off. This is a challenge with so many young players on both sides. Pascal Siakam seems to fit this mold the best. If I still had him, I'd consider starting off with him. The key question is, which young player from either team is the type to be poised and ready for this moment?

3) Who do you save for the first game where the championship is on the line?

Conventional wisdom would say, hold on to either SGA or Haliburton for that moment. This might be a good play, you just need to decide if its the right play for you based on your current standings.

I'm predicting OKC wins in 5. I've penciled in Chet Holmgren for game 1, but still deciding officially if I'll stick with the pick or make a change.

What's you Finals strategy?

AGAINST THE GRAIN: Pick A Pacer?

2025-05-31T13:36:00.000-07:00

The popular consensus will be picking the best remaining Knick as they're still down 3-2 in the series with tonight's game in Indiana. However, outside of the "Big Four", the Knicks don't really have a reliable person to pick. Mitchell Robinson is the clear 5th now that he's been inserted as a starter, but he still only plays around 20 min and doesn't have a very high ceiling. So if you've played all of those Knicks and/or you're a bit skittish about Mitch Bob, I'd suggest going Against The Grain and selecting a Pacers bench player that's been hot lately & thus will have a longer than normal leash in this game. That player is Bennedict Mathurin. He was 23/9 last game in 25 minutes after scoring 20 points in the previous game. There's no guarantee he'll get anywhere near the minutes or production in the Finals if they make it there, which makes him an enticing pick in this round.

That all said... GO KNICKS!

Drive to the Finals Blog

BOLD PREDICTIONS: Knicks Win w/ A Trip Dub!

Finals: Your Big Four

OVER OR UNDER: Strus Gets Loose!

Conference Finals!

The Postseason Landscape & The Scarcity Crisis

The Predictive Simulation: Mapping the Rest of the Way

1. Western Conference Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs

2. Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks

Terminal Strategic Rules for the Protocol

The Decision Matrix for WCF Game 1

Official Lock for Today's Matchup

PRABS Challenge: Go Big or Go Home!

Minutes Monster

New Strategy? Game 1 Strike!

AGAINST THE GRAIN: Out Come The Wolves

Game 7: Peak Ceiling or Liquidate

Embiid It Is!

Bags-A-Packin'!

GTD (Game Time Decision)

Can Nuggets Win Three Straight?

Keep On Pushing

Alupin Simulates, Part 1

Alupin Makes A Point About OKC's Defense on Book

BOLD PREDICTIONS: It's Happening Again!

OVER OR UNDER: Settling The Storm

Taong vs Alupin: Hallucinations

Taong vs Alupin

Jerry Ricochet's Upcoming Blogs! (2026 Edition)

2026 Intro Blog / First Round Preparation Guide

**What teams do you believe will survive the Play-In Tournament & will you be participating in the DTTF Google Drive League, Fantasy Postseason League or both?**

BOLD PREDICTIONS: Shai On The Double

NBA Finals Strategy

AGAINST THE GRAIN: Pick A Pacer?

What teams do you believe will survive the Play-In Tournament & will you be participating in the DTTF Google Drive League, Fantasy Postseason League or both?