The rookie draft is an exciting and unique part of the dynasty football experience.  At this time of year, the DLF Forum is filled with questions and advice about what various picks are worth and how to best use the rookie draft to improve our teams.  In this article, I’ll explore the rationale for using the Best Player Available (BPA) approach to drafting, but at the same time provide several ways to incorporate your team needs into your rookie draft strategy.

Players As Assets

More times than not, the best team on paper doesn’t win the league.  Because of this, my primary goal is to make the playoffs.  What I know is that once the playoffs start anything can happen and as long as I’m in, I can win.  I approach my players (and my picks) as assets for achieving that goal.  And like any good investment strategy, I want to maximize my return.

Simply stated, the BPA approach to drafting says that when picking in the rookie draft an owner should ignore team needs and take whoever is the highest ranked player on his board (or a player from his highest tier).  It’s roughly the rookie draft equivalent to the traditional value based drafting approach (VBD).

Let’s say for the sake of argument that the consensus point of view is that Justin Blackmon (WR) is higher ranked (and in a higher tier) than David Wilson (RB) at the time of your rookie draft.  BPA says you take Blackmon if he is on the board even if you desperately need a RB.  Even if Wilson would start for you day one and Blackmon is buried on your bench, you take him.  Why?  You want to have the collection of the most valuable assets in your league and Blackmon’s value is higher as determined by the consensus point of view.  What he’s worth to you isn’t really relevant because you aren’t going to ever trade with yourself.

Team Needs Change

It’s a myth that dynasty rosters are static.  If you play on a site like My Fantasy League that has the historical rosters, go back and compare.  Teams change constantly via trade, free agency and injury.  Elite rookie prospects will have value that endures long after your team needs have changed along with the team needs of all the other owners.

If you pick based on team need over BPA, you leave value on the table for people picking in the slots after you.  You’re taking a short-term approach to investing and we all know that’s a mistake.  Player value is determined by the league as a whole.  Maybe Wilson fits your team needs better right now, but that doesn’t make him more valuable than Blackmon.  He could be more USEFUL to you, but that doesn’t change his intrinsic value.  The intrinsic value is what determines the player’s trade value.  And since your team needs will surely change, you want to stockpile that value.

The Only Surefire Way is to Adopt

My wife and I have been on a journey to become pregnant.  And no matter how good the fertility specialist, the clinic, and the science – the only surefire way to fill our team need is to adopt!  The same is true with your dynasty team.

If you have a glaring team need that demands to be filled, do so via trade.  If you feel you need a RB and Blackmon is the most valuable player on the board, trade your pick for a RB.  We’ve been spoiled by the performance of Cam Newton, AJ Green and Julio Jones into thinking that rookies are immediate starters in fantasy – 99% of the time they are not.  So by picking a rookie RB to fill your team need, you probably haven’t accomplished your goal anyway.  And since we know that team composition changes constantly, by the time your rookie RB is ready to start for you, your needs will have changed.  All you’ve accomplished is giving up the extra value in Blackmon to a lucky owner picking behind you.

Breaking a Tie

I’m an advocate of tier based ranking for rookie drafts rather than forced rankings.  With all the uncertainty in the world of rookies, I think it’s best to group them by tier and pick based off your tiers.

The idea is to set the tiers where all the players in the tier have equivalent intrinsic value.  For example, I believe that Trent Richardson (RB) has the most overall value – he’s my first tier, then I believe Blackmon and QB Andrew Luck are very close to each other in value – they’re my second tier.  Under no circumstances would I ever take either Luck or Blackmon over Richardson because I follow BPA.

However, if I am picking at 1.02 and I have a glaring need at QB, I’d take Luck.  I’m not violating my BPA strategy; I’m using team need to break a virtual tie.  In my mind, Blackmon and Luck have equivalent long-term intrinsic value, so I’ve still maximized the value of my pick.

Net/net:  Your rookie picks are valuable assets and a key part of improving your team.  Don’t let short-term needs and thinking undermine your long-term plan.  The most successful teams are the ones that wring every last bit of value out of their picks either by shrewd drafting or effective trades.

Follow me @dynastytim to get my daily dynasty comment about this or that regarding the NFL draft.  Or hit me up on the forums here at DLF.  There’s nothing I like more than to talk about the draft process and dynasty in general. 

Editor’s Note:  This analysis is the first contribution by Member Corner Author,  Ryan McDowell.

It is the phrase that all NFL players, as well as fantasy owners, never want to hear – season ending injury. One torn ACL to a stud player can derail a fantasy season and send owners into total rebuilding mode. In 2011, fantasy owners suffered through many gut-wrenching injuries, especially to running backs. There is good news, though. As dynasty owners, we do not have to let these top picks rot on the waiver wire among the Bernard Berrians and Matt Leinarts of the fantasy world – they still have value and we should plan accordingly for 2012. Here is a look at several of the players who ended their 2011 season on injured reserve, along with a tip of how I believe you should value them in your dynasty league.

Quarterbacks

The signal caller position had very few significant injuries this season. Of course,  it may not have felt that way to some owners, as one of the top names in all of fantasy football was lost for the year without ever taking a snap.

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

The Injury
Manning underwent what was first reported as a minor neck surgery back in May. Very quickly, all who had a vested interest in the Colts season expressed optimism that Peyton would be fine and that his consecutive games played streak would remain intact. The offseason (and the lockout) dragged on with little discussion of the surgery, but as the union and owners settled their differences and Manning was still not practicing, concern began to grow. The Colts remained confident and signed Manning to a five-year, 30 million-dollar deal in late July. In fact, the Colts seemed to be in such denial that Manning was never placed on the injured reserve list, costing the Colts a roster spot the entire season.

The Recovery
The timetable was first reported to be one-to-two weeks and has now grown to several months. In December, Manning began throwing passes again, but never returned to practice with his Colts teammates. Most experts seem to think he will be back and ready to start in 2012, the question is for what team?

What do we do now?
The window to buy low on Manning has passed. I expect his trade value and average draft position to rise as the 2012 season approaches. There is an assumption among fans and the media that it is only a matter of time before Manning finds himself on a new team. Washington, Miami, New York, San Francisco, Arizona? Wherever he lands, he will certainly have dynasty value, but how much?

Manning is the perfect type of quarterback to acquire for teams relying on a younger signal caller to break out. If you suffered through 2012 with Sam Bradford, go get Manning. If you were pleasantly surprised by the way Matt Ryan finished the season, but worry if he can maintain that pace, go get Manning. For the majority of teams though, the price will be too high considering Manning’s name value will outweigh the difference he makes in your weekly lineup.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

The Injury
Schaub suffered an injury to the Lisfranc joint in his foot on a quarterback sneak in week ten against Tampa Bay. Schaub did not come out of the game and few realized there was any trouble until Texans head coach Gary Kubiak dropped the bombshell during his weekly press conference. Like the Colts with Manning, this essentially signaled the end of Houston’s Super Bowl aspirations. Damage to the Lisfranc ligament is somewhat new to the NFL, but has affected numerous players the past few seasons, including Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden and others. As team doctors and personnel learn more about these injuries, the recovery time and success seems to improve.

The Recovery
Soon after Schaub’s injury was revealed, there were rumors circulating that this injury could cue the end of his career. At this time, those rumors appear to be false, but it is a very serious injury that includes a long recovery from surgery. Schaub still cannot even put weight on his right foot, but he hopes to be ready for training camp.

What do we do now?
Schaub was already one of the quarterbacks on the QB1/QB2 border. He was an adequate starter, but did not provide fantasy teams with the weekly advantage the top tier QBs would. Although 30 is not considered old for a quarterback, when the injury is factored in, Schaub is a guy to avoid in dynasty. If you already have Schaub rostered, trying to trade him for an upside backup like Andy Dalton or Jake Locker might be a good idea.

Running Backs

Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals

The Injury
The Cardinals rookie running back tore his patella tendon in a preseason game and underwent surgery to repair his knee in August. He was placed on injured reserve and missed the entire regular season.

The Recovery
The timetable for Williams’ recovery was said to be 6-8 months, but other players, specifically wide receiver Mark Clayton, have had similar injuries. Clayton has never been the same and has had his own share of trouble getting back on the field. Williams is hoping to participate in minicamps in the spring, but with the severity of his injury, targeting a specific date for a return to the field will be difficult.

What do we do now?
Reports were very positive on Williams before the injury and many expected him to take over as the starter in the Cardinals backfield. Despite his strong season, many fantasy owners still do not believe in the ability of Beanie Wells. Factoring in the now common trend of NFL teams playing multiple running backs and there is a strong case to buy on Ryan Williams in dynasty leagues. As with any player suffering a season ending injury early on, his price will continue to rise as owners have held him on their roster for nearly a year. In a startup draft, I would take a shot on Williams before the majority of backup running backs in the league, and even before a few of the starters.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Injury
Mendenhall tore his ACL in a week 17 matchup against the Cleveland Browns. A torn ACL is, of course, a common injury among NFL players. Mendenhall’s tear is not the most severe variety.

The Recovery
Mendenhall only recently had surgery to repair his injury and with the timing, will be rehabbing throughout the offseason. The Steeler, who is in the final year of his contract, will be in danger of missing the beginning of the 2012 season and is a candidate for the PUP list.

What do we do now?
I have never felt Mendenhall was a special talent, nor have I viewed him as a RB1 in dynasty leagues. A major injury and an uncertain contract status only cloud the water for Mendy’s future. Despite that, Mendenhall is only 24 years old and could be a great RB2 or RB3 on a strong dynasty team. If the owner in your league is panicking about his future, now is the time to pounce. He could be had for a late 1^st rounder, and you might even be able to acquire Isaac Redman along with Mendenhall. He will also drop somewhat in startup drafts, but I think he will provide better value in existing leagues.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders

The Injury
McFadden left the Raiders week seven tilt against division rival Kansas City with what was diagnosed as a foot sprain – that began a fantasy owner’s nightmare of a season. With many of the players mentioned here, an injury was suffered, that player was placed on IR and owners could make adjustments. In McFadden’s case, owners were teased on a weekly basis about his availability. After a few weeks, most assumed he would miss significant time, which is how the season played out. McFadden did not play another down in the 2011 season. The foot injury was later reported as a Lisfranc sprain.

The Recovery
Despite the weekly updates on his status and the hope he could get back on the field, McFadden never returned to practice with the Raiders. There is some optimism that McFadden’s injury will not require offseason surgery. Former Raiders coach Hue Jackson even speculated that McFadden would have returned to practice had the team made the playoffs. Considering the way Michael Bush played as the starter, I suspect this was just coachspeak from Jackson.

What do we do now?
McFadden was an odd case. Unlike many of the other players who suffered significant injuries this season, his dynasty value seems to have taken only a very light hit. He is already being draft early to mid-second round of startup dynasty drafts and his trade value seems nearly unchanged, even after missing the final nine games of the season.

Monitoring how the Raiders handle Michael Bush’s free agency will be key to assessing McFadden’s dynasty value. Many are speculating the team could use its franchise tag on Bush and even possibly dangle McFadden in trade talks. McFadden is a still young at just 24 years old, but does have a long list of injuries in his career. For the cost McFadden demands in both trades and startup drafts, I would consider other options like Trent Richardson.

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

The Injury
To conclude a disappointing rookie season, Ingram suffered a turf toe injury that cost him the final four regular season games, as well as the playoffs.

The Recovery
Ingram underwent surgery to help repair the toe injury in mid-January and is expected to fully participate in the Saints’ offseason workouts.

What do we do now?
Even with a disappointing rookie campaign and the strong play of other members of the Saints backfield, Mark Ingram is an ideal candidate to buy low on this offseason. He can possibly be had for a late first round rookie pick or a receiver in the 25-35 range in many leagues. It is too soon to give up on a first round talent like Ingram, especially one that the high powered Saints traded up for in the 2011 NFL draft. In a time share with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, Ingram was still able to manage nearly 50 rushing yards per game and five touchdown runs in ten games. As Thomas ages and moves on from the Saints, whether this year or a year from now, Ingram’s role will continue to grow.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

The Injury
The Chiefs electric running back left their week two game against the Detroit Lions after injuring his knee during a sideline collision. The injury was soon diagnosed as a torn ACL, costing Charles almost the entire season.

The Recovery
Little information has been released about the recovery timetable for Charles, other than a brief comment from head coach Romeo Crennel stating that he remains on track in the recovery process. With the injury occurring so early in the season, it is safe to assume that Charles will be back at full strength in time to fully participate in training camp.

What do we do now?
Like McFadden, Charles seems to have lost very little dynasty value. He has been selected early in the second round of recent startup drafts and a case could be made to take him late in the first round. His trade value remains high, especially in PPR leagues. At only 25 years old and lacking the injury history of Darren McFadden, Charles is a good investment to add to your dynasty team, if you can acquire him at any type of discount. It would likely take a young running back like Mark Ingram or DeMarco Murray, along with a first round rookie pick, to pry Charles away.

Mikel LeShoure, Detroit Lions

The Injury
The rookie running back was expected to compete with Jahvid Best for carries in the Lions backfield, but never even made it to a preseason game as he was carted off the practice field early in August after suffering a torn left Achilles’ tendon. There was a rash of the same type of injuries last preseason, which many attributed to the lack of access to an offseason conditioning program.

The Recovery
With such a massive injury, LeShoure has undergone an extensive recovery and rehab process. A report in early December mentioned that he was still a long way from being cleared to run. It is unclear if LeShoure will be ready for training camp.

What do we do now?
With the recent news of concern about Jahvid Best, the Lions must address the running back position this offseason. Kevin Smith played well down the stretch, but he too has an extensive injury history. With nothing to show on his NFL resume, many have already given up on LeShoure ever having a contributing role in the NFL or on fantasy teams, but he is only 21 years old and the Lions have a major need in the backfield. If he can prove he is healthy, LeShoure will have a chance for a high number of carries on a strong offense. The young Lions running back is another guy who can be had cheaply, but the price will go up and up as the offseason continues. If you can acquire him now for a second round rookie pick in your league, he is likely worth the risk.

Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

The Injury
Best missed the final ten weeks of the season and the Lions first trip to the playoffs since 1999 due to complications from a concussion.

The Recovery
Best has a history of concussions dating back to college with the violent hit he took against Oregon State as he flew into the endzone for a touchdown. There are conflicting reports about his future. Detroit general manager and Best himself have voiced optimism about his future in Detroit, while reports surfaced this week that some in the organization fear the young running back’s career is already over.

What do we do now?
There are no trade options involving Best. If you have him, you just have to hold onto him and hope he can safely return to action. If you do not own him, he is obviously a guy to avoid. The only way he would make it onto my roster is if an owner really gets anxious and prematurely drops him. In a startup draft, Best will likely fall into the mid teens. At some point, he is worth rostering, but it has to come at a very cheap price.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

The Injury
Murray went down in week 14 with a broken right ankle. He had taken over as the starter and was running well. In fact, he was the #3 RB for a four-week period that saw his dynasty value spike.

The Recovery
Murray is another running back who suffered his injury late in the season, which could therefore affect his offseason workout schedule. Murray was quoted as saying he would only be 100% within two months. so he should be fully ready for training camp.

What do we do now?
This injury does not really affect Murray’s longterm value, other than adding to his list of nagging injuries through college and his short NFL career. He will fall somewhere around the fourth round in startup drafts and would likely cost you a high first round rookie pick or a top 15 wide receiver in a dynasty trade.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

The Injury
In a week 16 matchup against the Washington Redskins, Peterson suffered a major injury – a torn left ACL and MCL, along with damage to his meniscus.

The Recovery
Surgery was performed earlier than expected, just a week after the injury. Peterson is already off crutches, but faces an extensive recovery time.

What do we do now?
Peterson will be 27 when the season starts and will likely not be ready week one. Being placed on the PUP list, and missing the first six weeks of the season is a strong possibility. Peterson’s value has taken a huge dent. In my opinion, he is a third rounder, at best, in startup drafts and is being valued in the RB12-16 range in current leagues. Trading him for a back like Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller or Jonathan Stewart and picking up an extra player or pick could be the best play.

Wide Receivers

Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans

The Injury
The troubled Titans wide receiver tore his ACL and MCL in a week three game against the Denver Broncos.

The Recovery
Britt underwent surgery early in October and seems to be recovering well. He is yet another talented player to experience an early season injury, meaning he will likely be ready for Titans’ training camp.

What do we do now?
Coming into the 2011 season, there were glaring pros and cons to state the case of Britt’s dynasty value. He is one of the most dynamic, talented young wideouts in the game. The con, of course, is his multiple run-ins with the law.

The 2011 season added both a new pro and con to the list. The small sample size that was his 2011 season was outstanding, as he posted 14 grabs for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Many are extrapolating those statistics and now rank Britt as a top ten, or even top five dynasty WR. The latest con, of course, is the serious knee injury. I cannot recommend buying Britt at top five WR value, but if the owner in your league is concerned about the injury and his off the field issues, pounce and offer a wide receiver like Marques Colston or Steve Johnson.

Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks

The Injury
Rice’s disappointing season ended five weeks early due to a concussion – his third in a calendar year. He has since had surgery on both shoulders, one for a turn labrum. The shoulder injury cost Rice the first two games of the 2011 season.

The Recovery
Little is known about the recovery from his shoulder surgery, as it has only recently occurred. What we do know is Rice now has a growing list of medical concerns including hip issues, shoulder problems and concussions.

What do we do now?
Rice is the wide receiver version of Jahvid Best. The concussions are mounting and his dynasty stock is plummeting. He should not be a dynasty target despite a likely low asking price. His draft position in a startup dynasty draft is likely tenth round or later and he should be on your list of players to avoid.

Editor’s Note: You can find more terrific analysis and opinion like this on the DLF Forum. If you are not already a member of the forum, you are missing out on connecting with the most knowledgeable and active fantasy football community on the internet.  So join us on the DLF Forum today. It’s free, and it doesn’t suck.

You can also follow us on Twitter @DLFootball.

It happens every single year right about this time. People contact me via Email or through our forum and ask me one seemingly easy question – who is the toughest person to rank this year?

Typically, that’s a very tough question to answer. Last year, Reggie Bush was a bit of a challenge with his move to Miami and we really went out on a limb by downgrading some players like Peyton Hillis. All in all, 2011 was a pretty easy year to rank players.

This season is very different and like many of the past decade, tough yet again on an overall basis. Simply put, there are a number of individual players who are very difficult to rank right now. That list includes players like James Starks, Matt Flynn, Victor Cruz, Marshawn Lynch and a host of others. While the draft and free agency will help make ranking some of these players a little easier, it’s still a challenge at this point in time for a variety of reasons,  including impending free agency for some, contract situations for others or what could be fluky 2011 performances for an even larger group of players.

If I’m choosing just one player as the toughest to rank, the answer to that question is simple, though – that player is none other than Brandon Lloyd. Those who have read DLF since its infancy know our complete and total disdain for the man. It’s nothing personal, but let’s just say that Brandon Lloyd burned one of DLF’s owners pretty badly for more than a few seasons. It’s kind of the stuff of legend around these parts.

There are virtually no certainties regarding Lloyd, save one. If you’re a rebuilding team, you want no part of him. Let’s face it, in dynasty leagues you need to be squarely in contention or rebuilding – there is no in-between.  If you don’t know which category your team falls in, you need to determine that in order to maximize your potential. Otherwise, a bevy of 8-8 seasons are in your future. So, with that out of the way, let’s look at the case to buy or sell on Brandon Lloyd if you’re an owner of a team squarely in contention for a title in the next 2-3 seasons.

The Case to Sell

Lloyd will turn 31 in July, so his best years have to be behind him. Sorry, but that’s just math. That being said, he really has only one good year on the books. In his nine year career, Lloyd has 311 catches for 4,784 yards and 31 touchdowns – good for an average of just 35 catches, 532 yards and 3.4 touchdowns per season. Even more disheartening is the fact that Lloyd posted 77 catches, 1,448 yards and 11 of those scores in one year with the Broncos.

Lloyd is a free agent and has expressed interest in staying in St. Louis, or possibly following Josh McDaniels to New England. It’s very hard to say where he’ll end up because those situations tend to surprise in the end. We do know that he’s never been one to stay healthy and has constantly showed both flashes of both greatness and supreme disappointment for his owners during his stops in Chicago, San Francisco, Washington, Denver and St. Louis. That doesn’t just go away overnight – it’s called a trend.

Simply put, the list of players who blossom after nine seasons is short. The list of players who keep up that level of production is empty. That in itself can be enough to tip the scales for someone to sell on Lloyd. After all, we’ve all seen our share of one hit wonders in fantasy.

The Case to Buy

It’s accurate to say that Lloyd has been mostly a disappointment during his career. However, completely dismissing his recent production would be a mistake. In his last 31 games (making up nearly two full seasons), Lloyd has posted 147 catches,  2,414 yards and 16 touchdowns. When you consider many of those games came with quarterbacks like Tim Tebow, Kyle Orton, AJ Feeley and a banged up Sam Bradford at the helm, that’s impressive.

In the investment world, they always say that past performance isn’t an indicator of future success. With Lloyd, the same can be said about his early career failures – you can’t just hold that against him forever.

If he was to re-sign with St. Louis, Bradford will be healthy again next year and he’d surely be a key player for the Rams next season. He’s been good since arriving there from Denver and has only missed one game in the past two seasons. The Rams have virtually no weapons on the outside (though Blackmon could be a draft option) and Lloyd would get a ton of targets, even in Jeff Fisher’s run heavy offense.

Lloyd himself has also said that New England would be of great interest. The Pats have a history of taking on veteran players with mixed success, so you could see them take a stab at Lloyd. While the Patriot offense seems to be quite content relying on their Tight Ends, you could also make a case they have to with the lack of talent on the outside. Remember, Tom Brady threw for 50 touchdowns the last time Josh McDaniels was his coordinator.

You can make a strong case to buy on Lloyd if you’re a contending team. He likely won’t cost that much to get and you could conceivably strike gold. If you strike out, the price tag likely wasn’t high.

Conclusion

Brandon Lloyd is easily the toughest player to rank for the upcoming season. Right now, we have him in the 30s, but it’s not inconceivable to see him finish in the top 10 or outside the top 50 next year. Free agency will be a key in determining his future value, but that may be too late for you to make a move. If you believe Lloyd is a “sell” candidate, you play up the New England possibility and get what you can for him now. If you believe he’s a “buy” candidate, you better go acquire him before it’s too late.

I’d pose a question right back to you – how strongly do you feel one way or another?

Editor’s Note: We’re thrilled to add Paymon Shokoohi as a writer here at DLF. You’ll likely find a few reports from different fantasy sites in regards to the Senior Bowl, but Paymon has a unique perspective from the week because he actually traveled to Mobile to witness the players with his own eyes.

Mobile, AL - The Senior Bowl is a great opportunity for scouts to look at some of the not-so-obvious names available in the NFL draft. In other words, the guys who participate in the game are most likely viewed by organizations as sleepers.

I take that same sleeper concept when considering the prospects for fantasy purposes. Because most of the Senior Bowl participants aren’t considered sure bets, it’s unlikely they’d be considered in redraft leagues due to limited chances to see playing time in their rookie year.

In dynasty leagues, however, you have the ability to stash a few of these guys with little investment cost and wait for their development and playing time opportunity. The key is to know which guy to invest in with your rookie draft pick.

With that in mind, I made the trek to Mobile to see with my own eyes which of these guys had legit dynasty value. The result? I came away with a better feel for the prospects and more confidence in my assessments of their fantasy futures. These won’t be in any order because so much of a player’s fantasy value is dependent on the team that selects him. Here are my fantasy relevant Senior Bowl prospects:

Chris Polk, RB Washington

I wasn’t as high on Chris Polk as others seemed to be. I felt he was a decent RB who could get the yards his line opened for him. In other words, he’d be just another run-of-the-mill back. That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have fantasy value. It just meant that he wasn’t anything to get excited about.  After seeing him in person, I will elevate him a little higher than that, but not much. Polk is a physical specimen. He measured in at 5’ 11” and 224 lbs. He’s chiseled. He runs well between the tackles and his running style matches his physique. What caps his value is his limited ability to contribute in the passing game. The best comparison I can give is he’s half Daniel Thomas and half LeGarrette Blount. If you’re a fan of those two RBs, that’s about what you’ll be getting with Polk.

Marvin Jones, WR California

Prior to seeing Marvin Jones in person, I hadn’t had the chance to evaluate him beyond a few highlights that I’d seen. In other words, he wasn’t really on my fantasy radar. After seeing him live, I came away impressed. Jones cuts well for a 6’ 3”, 202 lb. guy. What impressed me most is that he made a point to catch every pass with his hands, even passes you traditionally see guys grab with their bodies. In traffic, high, low, or between the numbers, Jones caught everything with those big mitts of his. You know who else does that? Larry Fitzgerald. Now I’m not saying Jones is that good. I’m just giving you a visual of the way he attacks the ball. As a bonus, he also is a very good physical blocker. He has the potential to be a real gem down the road.

Doug Martin, RB Boise State

Doug Martin measured in at 5’ 9” and 219 lbs. He’s basically a bowling ball. What sets him apart from the other backs is he’s a legit three down running back. Best player comparison I can give you is picturing Chargers’ RB Mike Tolbert going on a diet and losing 25 lbs. – he’d come out looking like Doug Martin. I’m not making fun (ok, maybe a little) because I like Tolbert, but it’s unlikely Tolbert would have the fantasy value he does if he didn’t play in the Chargers’ system. Because Martin has a closer-to-normal RB physique, he won’t be as reliant to a particular system as Tolbert is, but his value could go up or down based on the team that selects him. He’s got the best NFL skill-set of all the backs in the Senior Bowl.

Jeff Fuller, WR Texas A&M

I had a clear opinion formed on Jeff Fuller prior to seeing him in person. In some ways, I came away more impressed and in some ways I came away disappointed. Fuller is a big physical WR, standing at 6’ 4” and weighing in at 217 lbs. An easy comparison is Miami Dolphins wideout Brandon Marshall. Obviously his physical skills impressed me going in. I loved that he overpowered defensive backs and caught the ball in traffic. He was one of those receivers that you throw the ball to even though he looks covered. What disappointed me is that he too often fought the ball that resulted in several drops. One play the ball would bounce off his hands and the next he’d out battle a DB for a tough catch. Again, a lot like Marshall. I still like him more than most because I see him producing over the long haul even if he’ll drive you a little nuts with consistency issues.

Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma State

You can’t bring up Brandon Weeden without talking about his age – he’s set to turn 29 this year. That alone results in his draft stock going down. If he was 24, I’m certain he’d be a first round pick in the NFL Draft, but unless he can get one of those birth certificates from the Dominican Republic, that isn’t happening. So the reality is Weeden is most likely a third round pick, which in my opinion, is well worth it to spend on a guy that has first round talent. He has the NFL arm, accuracy, poise, and most importantly the leadership qualities you like to see at the position. Simply put, he has all the intangibles you look for in a franchise quarterback. Given all those checkmarks, the age doesn’t bother me. You can get 7-8 years of service from his career.  In dynasty he’s a low risk, high reward rookie draft pick.

Honorable Mentions:

Joe Adams, WR Arkansas

He didn’t do anything to hurt his stock in Senior Bowl practices. He has slot receiver potential, but could also play outside. He runs good, sharp routes inside and outside seam. With his 4.3 range speed, and in the right depth chart situation, he could be a nice fantasy sleeper.

Brad Smelley, TE Alabama

He has nice agility and impressive ball skills. He always has his body positioned correctly to catch the ball at proper ball height. Measuring just under 6’ 2” and weighing in at 233 lbs., he’s more of H-back than a Tight End.

Dishonorable Mentions:

Kellen Moore, QB Boise State

In person, his lack of arm strength is even more glaring. Absolutely no zip. Add to fact he’s 5’ 11” and 191 lbs., and you can throw out any could-be Drew Brees arguments.

Dwight Jones WR, North Carolina

He’s too much of a body catcher for my liking. He’s also an imprecise route runnier, slow out of breaks and struggles to create any separation from defensive backs.

On the Fence:

Chris Rainey RB/WR, Florida

It’s hard not to consider a guy who can threaten to break a 4.25 forty yard dash. I’m on the fence because I’m not sure of his role. At the Senior Bowl practices he was working mostly at WR, and that’s where I like him most. I’ve seen comparisons to Sproles but I don’t really agree, though I can see the reasoning behind it. Sproles is every bit quick as he is fast, which are both off the charts. Rainey has more straight line speed, and it is world class. To me, he closer resembles Oakland WR Jacoby Ford. Rainey’s value, more than any other player at the Senior Bowl, will be dependent on what offensive system he plays in.

Editor’s Note: Paymon Shokoohi can be found on twitter @SetMyRoster.  Paymon also blogs at SetMyRoster.com.  Be sure to catch him there as well. 

Editor’s Note:  This analysis is the first contribution by Member Corner Author,  Dave Matula (rangerdave).

The Importance of the League Commission Position

You think about your fantasy football roster, and rarely do you think about your kicker.  For many owners, the kicker is an interchangeable part. You can always find a good kicker, right? Why worry about the position? Unfortunately, there is another position we treat like an interchangeable part; the  league commissioner.

Like the job of fantasy kicker, the job of fantasy commissioner is a thankless one. When things are going good for our team, we love the guy. However, when something goes wrong the commissioner is usually the first person we blame.

We usually put as much thought into who is running our leagues as we do into our selection of kicker. If a league is going to be a success, more thought needs to be put into the commissioner selection.  In most leagues, the commissioner role belongs to the person who founded the league. Often this person is our choice for the job simply because they established the rules and approved the original owners.

The next most common choice for commissioner is the guy who volunteers for the job. This person is a choice of convenience. They usually volunteer with the noble intention of bettering the league, or because nobody else wanted the position, but their agenda may not always be right for the league.

The best way to select a league’s Commissioner is through election. With a properly held election, league owners receive enough information to aid in the selection of their Commissioner. Too often though, elections are hastily set up and completed. Not enough questions are asked of the commissioner candidates. This usually results in the selection of most popular owner, or the owner who spends the most time on their league’s site, and not the owner who is the best fit for the job.

So, what makes for a good commissioner? In order to answer this, we must first define the role of commissioner. A commissioner’s role is to exercise broad administrative and judicial authority over the league in accordance with the league’s bylaws. The fantasy football commissioner enacts rule changes, interprets league bylaws, enforces league rules, and administers punishment for rule infractions. At all times, the Commissioner acts in the best interests of the league as a whole.

There are many things that go into the making of a good fantasy commissioner. There is one thing, though, that is essential to a good commissioner. A good commissioner needs to embrace his role. He is the authority figure in the league and needs to act the part. The weight of the league falls on his shoulders and he must be willing to bear the load. He cannot be every owner’s friend in this role. His decisions will anger others, and he must accept that fate.

Other owners in the league should have a say in the operation of the league through reasonable discussion, but the ultimate ruling on all league matters fall to the commissioner. Polls are useful, but cannot be used to make every decision. If your Commissioner puts up a poll every time an issue crops up in your league, he is not the right man for the job. A good commissioner trusts himself to make the right decisions for his league.

In allowing for discussion of issues, the commissioner does not engage in personal attacks against other owners. An effective Commissioner weighs all viewpoints to come up with a solution that fits the needs of the league. He uses his authority as Commissioner to mediate and end disagreements, not to be a part of them.

When there is a rules violation, the commissioner steps up and enforce the rules, including discipline of other owners. He is not afraid to assess an established penalty or to establish a precedent for penalty.

If your league also uses a co-commissioner or a rules committee, the commissioner’s role does not change. He is still the authority figure in your league. There is the added duty of empowerment in these situations, though. The commissioner must empower these other owners to enact change, and he must allow them to perform administrative tasks, under his supervision.

Your league commissioner is the authority in your league. In order to be effective in that role, he must embrace the powers provided by the office. He cannot allow the inmates to run the asylum. There must be order in the league, and the commissioner’s job is to provide that order. The job of fantasy commissioner is a thankless one. It shouldn’t be that way, though. commissioners need to understand embrace their roles. Owners need to understand the role of commissioner as well, and to to respect the authority of their commissioner. If your league has problems, evaluate your commissioner. He may not be the right man for the job. If your league is running smoothly, though, give your commissioner a little respect and thanks. Don’t treat him like a kicker.

Editor’s Note: You can find more terrific discussion like this on the DLF Forum. If you are not already a member of the forum, you are missing out on connecting with the most knowledgeable and active fantasy football community on the internet.  So join us on the DLF Forum today. It’s free, and it doesn’t suck.

You can also follow us on Twitter @DLFootball.

Editor’s Note:  This analysis is the first contribution by Member Corner Author,  Tim Stafford (tstafford).

For those who have been DLF readers for a while, you hopefully purchased and enjoyed the 2011 Dynasty Essentials Guide. The DEG included a mock start-up draft and we thought it was time to get the band back together and conduct an Early Rookie Mock. We did a 12-team (1QB), two round, non-IDP draft taking best player available (BPA) independent of any team need considerations.

Obviously much will change as a result of the pre-draft process (Combine and pro-days) and the actual NFL draft. But a well-done mock like this tends to be fairly accurate in predicting the tiers of players in actual rookie drafts. This can help owners assess trade values for 2012 rookie picks, get a sense of the range of players that should be available to them in their spring drafts, and it’s just fun to read. I know we had fun doing it.

ROUND ONE:

1. dlf_eric – Trent Richardson, RB ALA
Eric’s Comments: “His combination of speed and physicality is impressive and should translate well at the next level. He doesn’t have many holes in his game, which makes him a safe number one overall. He could make a fantasy impact from day one depending on his landing spot.”

Tim’s Analysis: This is a no-brainer pick. Unless you are in a 2QB league, you can write it in with ink at this point that “T.Rich” will be on your team. There is nothing that could happen, except an injury that would change my opinion on this one. Don’t outthink yourself. Pick him.

2. tstafford – Justin Blackmon, WR OSU
Tim’s Comments: “Lacks the elite speed of Julio Jones and God given talents of AJ Green, but he is the total package. Runs the entire route tree and knows how to use his body to get separation. Not a burner, but fast enough to make people miss. Doesn’t shy away from contact and has an exemplary work ethic. Has the will to win. Even though everyone who played OSU knew what was coming, very few could stop him. If you’re looking to kill some time see the youtube video from 2010 where he torches the Giants 1st round CB Prince Amukamara early and often.”

Tim’s Analysis: The 1.02 is a significant value tier drop from the 1.01. I think it would be reasonable to take Blackmon or Luck here. And the gamblers among us might be tempted to reach for RGIII. None of the RBs grade-out to be in contention for me in leagues where I own the 1.02 (even on teams with dire RB needs).

Trade Advisory: I think this pick is a strong candidate for dynasty owners to trade down. If your team has diverse needs (and it may if you “earned” the 1.02), I’d test the market for dropping to the 1.03 or 1.04 and picking up a late first or early second. You may get and owner who absolutely has to have Blackmon.

3. BubbaBurst – Andrew Luck, QB STAN
BB’s Comments: “Best QB prospect in a long time. My guess is as we get closer to the draft a RB will emerge as a possibility in this pick, but the trend in FF these days seems to be heavily skewed towards QBs and he is a rock solid prospect in every aspect.”

Tim’s Analysis: This is as simple as seeing who falls to you and picking him. The 1.03 basically picks itself based on what happens at 1.02. Owners will have to do some soul searching if somehow Luck is actually stuck behind Peyton Manning. But let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.

4. dlf_jeffh – Robert Griffin III, QB BAY
Jeff’s Comments: “Most fantasy leagues give 4 pts. for passing TDs. This immediately elevates quarterbacks that can score through the air AND with their feet. Griffin is not only an amazingly accurate QB, but he can punish defenses on the ground as well. If you defend him close to the line, he’ll pass over your head. Fall back into coverage and he’ll chew you up on the ground. He’s what Michael Vick could have been in the NFL. I have little doubt that he’ll be very successful in the NFL unless he is drafted into turmoil.”

Tim’s Analysis: I’d probably have a hard time taking him here but I understand the argument. I expect that there will be a RB that I am more excited about and unless I have pressing needs at QB, I’m going with my best available position player here. But you will need to use a top six pick to get him in just about every league.

5. Shawn – Alshon Jeffery, WR SCAR
Shawn’s Comments: “There are some that actually feel that Jeffery may end up being the best WR in this draft, and I think once he focuses on the upcoming draft and conditioning, he will really open some eyes at the Combine.”

Tim’s Analysis: This was the first pick I disagreed with. I thought this was a reach for a player who has glaring issues in his skill set. I expect he will struggle with separation once he is facing NFL DBs. That said, I agree with Shawn that the Combine will be pivotal for Jeffrey. His bowl game performance strengthened his draft stock, he needs to stay on a roll for me to feel good taking him before the end of the first. I see Jeffery as a controversial prospect in both the NFL and dynasty drafts.

6. dlf_kenk – Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Ken’s Comments: “I’ll go with Miller here, hoping that he ends up in a relatively favorable spot like Cincy or Cleveland.”

Tim’s Analysis: This is the first pick that I felt was difficult to make without knowing the results of the NFL draft. The choice between the RBs will come down to personal preference and situation. Miller is as good a candidate as any to be the RB2 off the board. He’s not my choice, but more on that later.

Trade Advisory: I think the 1.06 is another good candidate for a trade down depending on who is left on the board. If the draft has gone “to form”, the string of players who will go from six to at least ten or eleven all are relatively equal for me. So if I can pick up a second to trade down a couple of spots, I’m game.

7. dlf-kenm – Michael Floyd WR ND
Ken’s Comments: “Floyd has terrific size and strength, and is a physical player who can simply overpower defenders for the ball. He’s not a burner and won’t be breaking free from many NFL corners, but he has the upside to be a solid, borderline great, WR in the NFL. His off-the-field issues were not overly severe, and hopefully he’ll go into the pros with his head screwed on straight.”

Tim’s Analysis: Solid pick, solid value. I have him ranked as my WR2. Not much more to say. He’ll go in the first round of the NLF draft. The Little lovers will disagree, but I like him far better than any of the WRs picked after Julio last year.

8. RobertBobson – Kendall Wright, WR BAY
RB’s Comments: “He’s shorter than I like for a WR prospect, but he’s explosively fast, quick and, for a smaller WR, he’s incredibly strong. Has experience playing both in the slot and on the outside in college, so I think he could be a very versatile in the pros. I see him having Mike Wallace, or even a Steve Smith type ceiling, given how strong he is.”

Tim’s Analysis: Another good pick. He could be the highest upside position player in the draft. I wouldn’t let his size scare me off, but I’d keep a close watch on what he measures at the Combine.

9. dlf_markb – David Wilson, RB VT
Mark’s Comments: “Wilson is one of the fastest RB’s coming out this season and has decent size as well. I think he can be a great asset in PPR leagues in today’s pass happy NFL.”

Tim’s Analysis: This was a steal. He is my RB2 and by a nice margin. I don’t think he gets out of the top six unless he is drafted into a horrendous situation. He’s the only RB other than T.Rich that has a legit NFL first round grade. I’m likely taking him at 1.04 and if he is sliding like this I’m going to engineer a trade to get him.

10. Skip – Doug Martin, RB Boise St.
Skip’s Comments: “Martin is a solid all-around RB. He’s built well, runs low to the ground and fights for yards after contact. As one of the most complete backs in this draft he should hear his name called early to a team looking for an immediate impact.”

Tim’s Analysis: Right on. This pick reflects the value that RB prospects carry in rookie drafts. There are home runs to be had at WR, but the edge generally goes to RB when picking among relatively equal options.

11. Water Buffalo – Chris Polk, RB WAS
WB’s Comments: “I like Polk’s potential to be a true three down back in the NFL and I like his receiving skills out of the backfield which is something that’s very important to me when drafting a RB prospect. With any RB prospect, I very much have to take into consideration where they land. I’m not one of those “talent over situation 100% of the time” people – situation is important to me with RBs specifically.”

Tim’s Analysis: This pick shows why this draft class is so good. Guys like Martin and Polk would have been top-six picks in drafts as weak as 2010 and 2011. Having two QBs go early plus the inherent strength of the class makes the end of the first round very juicy. This type of value is why I could see teams trying to trade down.

12. kris_kapsner – LaMichael James, RB ORE
KK’s Comments: “Nice late first round pick here in my opinion. People are surprisingly low on James in my opinion. Here’s a RB coming off three straight 1,500+ rushing yard seasons. He’s put up more yardage each year and just peaked with over 1,800 rushing yards and averaging 7.3 yards per carry.”

Tim’s Analysis: I think this is about the right place for James to go off the board. He’s going to fall due to his size. Plus I think his NFL draft result will be very important to dynasty owners. Dexter McCluster will scare some off, but James is more Darren Sproles than McCluster. He will not be an every down back but he could become a reliable flex player for fantasy.

ROUND TWO:

In the interest of space, we’ll omit the individual commentary and run through round two a little more quickly:

13. dlf_eric – Mohammed Sanu, WR TEM
14. tstafford – Dwight Jones, WR NC
15. BubbaBurst – Bernard Pierce, RB TEM
16. dlf_jeffh – Rueben Randle, WR LSU
17. Shawn – Ryan Tannehill – QB A&M
18. dlf_kenk – Nick Toon – WR WIS
19. dlf-kenm – Nick Foles QB ARZ
20. RobertBobson – Coby Fleener TE STAN
21. dlf_markb – Chris Rainey RB FLA
22. Skip – Juron Criner, WR ARZ
23. Water Buffalo – Orson Charles TE GEO
24. kris_kapsner – Ryan Broyles, WR Oklahoma

Tim’s Comments:
The high risk/high reward WRs all fell to the top of the second because of the strength of the RB class. Keep this in mind as you consider trade offers that include early seconds. For those who are new to dynasty and maybe weren’t around to see 2008 and 2009, your perspective on the value of early seconds needs to be calibrated to this type of talent. Guys like Sanu and Jones would have never made it to the second in 2010 or 2011.
I think the QBs picked in round two were reasonable BPA driven selections. These are both guys who have similar value to Gabbert, Ponder and Dalton in 2011. Good dynasty assets to add with a second. They may fall as the draft comes into clearer focus. A lot of us are still setting our boards and the late second is murky.
Similarly, I was a tad surprised to see Orson Charles fall this far. With the success of TEs lately, I think there’s a good chance he goes sooner.

Tim’s Note: I hope you enjoyed this very early mock draft. Keep an eye out for my next article that will cover why BPA should be the default strategy for dynasty rookie drafts. Follow me @dynastytim to get my daily dynasty comment about this or that regarding the NFL draft. Or hit me up here on the DLF forums. There’s nothing I like more than to talk about the draft process and dynasty in general.

Editor’s Note: If you don’t know the folks who made these picks, that means you aren’t on the DLF forums. And that means you are missing out on a valuable dynasty asset – the advice of the most knowledgeable and active group of enthusiasts on the Internet. For my two cents, I’d put the cumulative fantasy wisdom of this group against any “expert” or any pay site. You got a tiny taste of how good these guys are from the comments above. Join us. It’s free. Also follow on Twitter @DLFootball.

As I’ve mentioned previously regarding the 2012 class, it’s a relatively deep group at the running back position and extremely talented at the very top of the first round (in fantasy drafts).  The receivers beyond Blackmon are talented in their own right but there exists a high degree of variability in 2012 with regard to predicting which of the receivers beyond the WR1  (Blackmon) is likely to have the best career.

In using these tiers, your first consideration is, most often, team need(s).  That said, the first tier of players will usually represent the first players off the board, almost without respect to need.  As the last player in this year’s first tier is a quarterback, it is likely that he will/could slide a pick in many drafts.  Regardless of this fact, I stand by those players in the first tier as being the most talented players in the draft which should represent the first selections, although not necessarily in order.

Please note that I have yet to slot Tight Ends so they are not included in this study.  They will be coming soon.

Let’s get to the tiers:

Tier I

1.  Andrew Luck, QB Stanford
2.  Trent Richardson, RB Alabama
3.  Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma St.
4.  Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Tier II

5.   Lamar Miller, RB Miami (FL)
6.   David Wilson, RB Virginia Tech.

Tier III

7.    Chris Polk, RB Washington
8.    Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame
9.    Kendall Wright, WR Baylor
10. Dough Martin, RB Boise St.
11.  Alshon Jeffery, WR  South Carolina
12.  Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

Tier IV

13. Mohammed Sanu, WR Rutgers
14. Rueben Randle, WR LSU
15. LaMichael James, RB Oregon
16. Dwight Jones, WR North Carolina
17. Nick Toon, WR Wisconsin
18. Jeff Fuller, WR Texas A&M

Tier V

19. Nick Foles, QB Arizona
20. Bernard Pierce, RB Temple
21. Isaiah Pead, RB Cincinnati
22. Cyrus Gray, RB Texas A&M

Tier VI

23. Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma St.
24. Ryan Lindley, QB San Diego St.
25. Ryan Broyles, WR Oklahoma
26. Kirk Cousins, QB Michigan St.
27. Case Keenum, QB Houston

As mentioned previously, the player slotted at 1.04 (Griffin III), may slide a pick or two based on the need of the team selecting at 1.04.  If this team is already quarterback-rich, look for a selection of one of the running backs in Tier II.  While that may be the case, I still would suggest a selection of Griffin as the BPA (Best Player Available) in my rankings.  Griffin is rated very highly and rates higher than any of this year’s Tier II running back rather easily.

2012 finds a relatively thin Tier II, comprised only of Lamar Miller and David Wilson.  Many have Wilson ranked above Miller, but my tape review narrowly favors Miller.

Tier III is headlined by Washington’s Chris Polk, who reminds me of a young O.J. Simpson, in talent and style that is.  I have only recently downgraded him from Tier II but he may slide back up before my rankings are finalized, prior to the combine.  Further evaluation has narrowed the small gap between Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Wright could overtake Floyd, but my ranking system does strongly favor size.  As you can tell, I am not a big fan of So. Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery, but more review is forthcoming.   I am also not as high on Tannehill as the draft experts are.

Tier IV is comprised mainly of wide receivers, with the single exception being Oregon’s LaMichael James.  Trying to pick which receivers from this group will be the most successful at the next level may be a fool’s errand, but I will be focusing on this group exclusively in the coming weeks in an attempt to give you a leg up come draft time.

Tier V finds Nick Foles as headliner, an intriguing prospect to me.  Foles may climb a tier level in the coming weeks.  The three backs sharing this tier are very close in talent and ability.  Drafted situation will play a heavy role in their future success.

In Tier VI, keep an eye on San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley.  He’s got a lot of what the experts look for in a quarterback and a few of traits that you don’t, but he’s got the “it” factor and a huge arm.  He has very little touch at this point in his development but he has a high upside quotient.

I hope you find these early tiers somewhat helpful in defining the talent pool of our current grouping of ranked rookies.  I will be updating these tiers and the number of players within them continuously, so keep it tuned here throughout the off-season.

Editor’s Note:  This analysis is the first contribution by Member Corner Author, Bob Moztis.

Why are secondary WR’s on their own teams WR1’s in Fantasy?

The 2011 season produced the most glaring evidence of a trend we have been seeing in the NFL for the past few years; Wide Receivers who are not even considered the top option on their own NFL team are putting up WR1 fantasy numbers. Why is this happening? Is it a trend that we can expect to continue going forward and can we use this to our advantage in Dynasty leagues?

For the purposes of this article I will be referencing standard non-PPR scoring, but I’d have to believe the same lessons apply to PPR as well. For the entire 2011 season, Jordy Nelson ranked as the #2 Fantasy WR and Victor Cruz finished #4. If we only look at Week 7 through the end of the year (admittedly a cherry picked starting point, but I am doing so because certain players didn’t define their roles until later in the season), we see Nelson and Cruz still hold strong at #2 and #3 respectively, and also see Laurent Robinson at #6 and Antonio Brown at #13 (Roddy White and Julio Jones show up at #8 and #9 also, but I am not sure that either of them fits as a WR2). None of these players are even considered the best WR on their NFL team, but they are the guys who would have helped you win fantasy championships this year.

The first question I want to tackle is, “Why is this happening?” I think the reason is two-fold. One is that these players are on teams that have multiple weapons that defenses have to account for, including a “WR1” who would theoretically draw the top corner or even a double team from opposing defenses. However, that has always been the case in the NFL. It isn’t a new trend that the best cornerback matches up with a team’s best WR, or that some teams have a lot of weapons. So while I think that part of it is definitely important, on its own it wouldn’t allow for the results we have seen.

The second reason is the explosion of passing games in general recently in the NFL. We saw Drew Brees, Tom Brady (these 2 guys don’t apply to the topic of this article as much because they utilize their Tight Ends so often), Matt Stafford, and the Aaron Rodgers/Matt Flynn-combination all throw for over 5,000 yards this season. Then on top of that, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton all threw for over 4,000 yards. That is 10 teams who produced over 4,000 yards through the air, with 4 of them over 5,000, which means there are a lot more yards (and fantasy points) to go around now then there ever were before. In the past, the 2nd WR option may have had the advantage of single coverage, but there simply wasn’t enough opportunity for yards for him put up WR1 numbers. Now however, the combination of these two situations makes it possible.

So now that we know the underlying phenomena occurring that are allowing these secondary WR’s to thrive, we have to decide whether we think those phenomena are sustainable or simply a blip on the radar. Since primary WRs will always draw the top coverage, and that shouldn’t be as likely to change, I want to focus on whether passing games will continue to flourish. Many have mentioned the rule changes as a reason passing games are succeeding, whether it has been an emphasis on pass interference, illegal contact, or defenseless receiver penalties. However, one rule change that I believe may have had as big an effect as any other is the decision to move kick-offs up to the 35 yard line. As a result of all the extra touchbacks occurring, the average starting field position this year was the 22.1 yard line in 2011, approximately 5 yards behind where it had been the previous three seasons. Each team averaged 189 possessions this season, which means that there were an additional 888 yards to be gained per team over the course of the season. (Reference: http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/35597/kickoff-rule-change-has-big-effect-on-nfl ). Now obviously not every team is going to be able to take advantage of these additional yards as much as others, but the top QB’s in the league are certainly now going to throw for a lot more yards, which generates a lot more opportunities for the secondary WR’s to take advantage of their weaker coverage matchups.

Now how can we use this information to help us in Dynasty Leagues? I believe there are a couple of key things to look at, in both a macro and micro sense. The biggest macro issue is any rule changes or points of emphasis in the NFL. If, for example, you see that kick-offs are being moved back to the 30 yard line, expect total passing yards to decline and opportunities for secondary wide receivers to score fantasy points to go down as well. If you hear that officials are being told to let more bumping go on down the field without pass interference, realize again that passing games will decline. Everyone will of course see these news stories at the same time, but hopefully you will realize what they mean to the fantasy football landscape more than other owners in your league.

In a micro sense though, look specifically for teams where the right player can take advantage of the current rules. One thing I haven’t mentioned yet in this article is the talent level of the guys who are performing so well as secondary receivers. It is my belief that Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Antonio Brown, and Laurent Robinson are all very talented players who are able to take advantage of the opportunities that have come their way. Not all of the high-yardage passing teams in the league have these types of talented second WRs yet though, or maybe some are just too young and haven’t bloomed yet. If you believe guys like Titus Young, Vincent Brown, or Brandon LaFell have the talent to make a leap forward, they are in the ideal situations to break out. If you don’t believe in those players’ talents, be sure to keep an eye on any free agent or rookie acquisitions by Detroit, San Diego, or Carolina, and they seem like the best situations for a WR2 to become the next Nelson or Cruz.

In conclusion,  based on the evidence I presented above, I don’t see these types of seasons by secondary Wide Receivers to be flukes (with the caveat that the players remain in their current situations). I think there will certainly be regression in Jordy Nelson’s touchdowns and Victor Cruz’s yards, but I still believe these guys are players to target if their owner thinks that their great seasons were random occurrences. The combination of the current environment in the NFL and each of these player’s specific team situations is going to allow these players to shine, and they have enough talent to take advantage of their opportunities. I’d much rather own a guy like Cruz than a primary WR on a bad passing team. Situation matters in fantasy football, and now more than ever, it applies to the Wide Receivers.

- Bob Mozitis can be found posting under the name bobbytheo3 on the DLF Forum.

Regardless of how you project Luck’s prospects at the next level, you have to admit (at least I hope you do) that it’s easy to get behind a college player that just seems to get “it”.  Luck bypassed bigger money in 2010 by opting to stay in school, work on his game and finish what he started in 2009.  The Fiesta Bowl didn’t end as he had hoped, losing to the Oklahoma State in a high scoring affair and losing the Heisman to the Baylor’s dynamic quarterback, Robert Griffin III, but Luck leaves college with no regrets and with a first pick selection in the NFL draft guaranteed come April.

Let’s zoom in and take a closer look starting with his college production:

Even his impressive college statistics don’t portray exactly what Luck brings to the table at his position.  While many believe that Luck is the single best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning in 1998, many more believe that you have to go back even further, to 1983 and John Elways, also from Stanford.  Put me with the latter, but it’s very close.  Either way, he’s going to be a great one.

Why?

Let’s break down some of the video to see some of the important tangibles that are considered must-haves for the ability to develop professional quarterbacks from the college ranks.  It’s rare that a prospect emerges containing so many of them before even being drafted.

It shouldn’t be lost that Stanford has an extremely capable offensive line, a pro-style offense and capable receivers that will be playing at the next level in 2012.

1:10 – Smooth footwork, great body position, high release point and drives through the throw with a great wrist-snap and follow through strong on his left leg (right leg pulling off the ground).  This allows him to drive the ball well to the receiver and past the defending defensive back.

1:25 – In the shotgun, stays patient in his drop while he checks through his progression.  Again, finishing with a nice driving pass with a shortened follow-through due to his offensive lineman being pushed back into his throw.

1:50 – Unpressured out of the shotgun, Luck again quickly runs through his progression by looking out wide first, followed by the seam until checking it down with a nice, low, driven ball.  Again, not the follow through onto his left leg, through the pass with his right leg coming off the ground, on even this short route.

2:30 – Now sliding to his left, throwing off balance but notice the wrist-snap which allows him to spin a nice ball with touch over the defensive back  and to his leaping receiver

2:43 – Note his quick feet on the drop to get himself in position to drop in  a nicely thrown corner ball.  The trajectory of the ball from the touch makes it nearly impossible to be intercepted and would take a much taller and well-positioned DB to make any sort of play on it.

5:07 – Again, notice the shoulder positioning that he uses to get the touch on the ball to drop  it into his receiver at a trajectory where only one player can make a play on the ball.

5:18 – This is what separates him from Peyton Manning to being more Elway-like.  The quick read to his right, feels the pressure and has the ability to immediately take what the defense gives him on the ground with the smarts to get out of bounds to avoid the hit.

5:30 – From under center again, he goes through his progression but quickly picks up the incoming defender and rolls from the pocket, ultimately  utilizing a stop-move to pick up the first.

5:40 – Roll-out to his right on a designed play, but snaps through the throw with his shoulders squaring to his target … allowing him to drive the ball on target.

7:03 – Sheer arm strength without a lot of set-up and 55 yards in the air with ease of motion.  Luck’s throwing mechanics would likely allow for a 70 yard, in the air, pass.

The rest of the video is more of the same, showing amazing consistency in his mechanics and that beautiful throwing motion with a high release point, the plane of shoulders, wrist-snap and most of all, the weight transfer that when combined with the rest of his motion, provides for that velocity and accuracy that he is known for.

Aside from his throwing motion, Luck remains a fantastic leadership presence, within the huddle and on the sidelines, while  maintaining an air of humility and confidence.  He leads by example, is a tireless worker and does not settle for mediocre.

Negatives:  Luck’s footwork can sometimes break down as he relies on his arm strength to make the throws that come easily to him, sometimes throwing off of his back foot.  Additionally, one notable area of weakness I have often seen is that in his play action motion, routinely going through the motion of the play-action and not “selling” it.  As he gets accustomed to the NFL, this will be an area of focus and will also greatly increase his results.  Should he pair with Peyton Manning in Indi, who is one of the strongest play-action quarterbacks in the NFL today, he’ll learn the subtle details of effective play-action techniques at a much quicker pace.

The single remaining negative attribute may be the most striking and concerning – that terrible Amish-style beard.  That HAS to go!

When watching Luck’s videos, it’s easy for his motion and positive attributes to almost seem redundant and, dare I say, boring in their repetitive use.  But it is just that fact that makes Andrew Luck the strongest quarterback prospect that we have seen in almost three decades.

In fantasy drafts, if you will be needing a quarterback at any point within the next three-to-four years, I urge you to strongly consider the addition of Luck with the earliest possible pick.  Strong words I know, but words I’m also willing to put my full-faith behind.

Looking at the list of Unrestricted Free Agents this year, it seems like a fantasy team fielded from just that list would cruise to a championship.  While there are some names that seem guaranteed to re-sign with their current teams (Brees, Rice, Welker, etc), many are far less certain.  Watching these situations and knowing how they affect the relative value of players is a key part of dynasty league success.

Don’t just follow the news on major sites. If you have one or more of these players on your team, or are targeting them in trades, it would be a good idea to follow both the beat writers of the teams that they are currently on, and any potential landing spots on Twitter.  Staying ahead of the curve on the news will allow you to have more accurate current values for these players, and more accurate player valuations will lead to better long term success.

Quarterback

Matt Flynn, Green Bay Packers:  Obviously there’s a ton of hype surrounding Flynn after his Week 17 six touchdown explosion.  When I look at some possible landing spots (Seattle, Cleveland, Washington, Miami), my feeling is that selling high is a good option.  Whatever you could have gotten for Kolb before he played a snap in Arizona is surely more than you could get now.  Even if you like Flynn more than Kolb, he will not be playing with that set of receivers (even without Jennings) and, more importantly, against a banged up Detroit secondary, all of next season as he did the final week of the year.

Josh Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  No one is mentioning a reunion with Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco anymore, huh?  Alex Smith now seems like a lock to sign a long term deal with the Niners; thus eliminating a popular spot for Johnson.  Where he lands will be key, but wherever it is, it will be a competition at best.  Johnson looks like a hold to me with upside if he can win a starting job next year.

Shaun Hill, Detroit Lions:  Hill was a big reason you could feel comfortable with Stafford last year.  The dropoff, though steep, would not have been an aboslute killer if Stafford had gotten hurt.  At 32, Hill may want one last chance at a starting job, which he certainly is not going to get in Detroit.  He’s not a bad guy to monitor in deep leagues.  If he lands in a good spot and if he wins a starting job, he might keep it for the next couple of years and be a decent, low cost starting option.

Other interesting UFAs:  Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, Dennis Dixon

Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks:  His value is obviously the highest it’s ever been, but it will be interesting nonetheless to see what Seattle does here.  Lynch is only 25 and has a few good years left in his legs.  My best guess right now is that the Seahawks slap him with the franchise tag, but if not, it’s a situation to monitor.  His best case scenario is staying put as his 19 Week 17 carries were his lowest number since Week 8.  Seattle found its winning formula in the second of the 2011 season and Lynch was and should continue to be a big part of that moving forward.

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders:  I’m not sure if it was the heavy workload or Hue Jackson’s unraveling towards the end of the season that rendered Bush less effective as the season wore on. He had four straight 90+ yard rushing games in Weeks 7 through 11, then failed to top 78 yards for the rest of the season.  If Bush ends up in a good situation, I’d either be looking to capitalize on that value bump right away, or hope he starts the season off strong, then move him.

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns:  Hillis’ value is fairly low right now.  Locker room issues, Madden curse, injuries — it runs the gamut.  It might actually create a decent opportunity to buy Hillis low.  He indisputably has skills and if he lands in the right spot, rededicates himself and isn’t overworked, he could have RB2/high-end flex value moving forward.  If you can acquire him for the right price, it could end up being a value play moving forward.

Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers:   If the Chargers move on from Tolbert, he could end up in a situation where he reprises his 2010, early 2011 value.  Somewhere where he can get around 150 carries and 40-50 targets, should lead to about 600 yards, 35-45 receptions, and 7-10 touchdowns – good enough for a high end Flex play.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots:  Considering the Patriot Way, it would not be a surprise if the Pats let the Law Firm start practicing in a different jurisdiction, with Stevan Ridley taking over early down duties.  BGJE proved himself as a capable runner, including at the goal line (13 TDs in 2010 and 11 TDs in 2011).  He’ll be 27 at the start of the 2012 season and could hold value (especially in non-PPR leagues) for a couple more years.

Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks:  I covered Forsett in my previous article.  This is a situation to monitor to see where he lands.

Other interesting UFAs:  Matt Forte, Cedric Benson, Tim Hightower

Wide Receivers

Brandon Lloyd, St. Louis Rams:  There is immense speculation that Lloyd will be following Josh McDaniels to New England.  If that’s true, expect a bump in this value that you should try to exploit considering that Lloyd will be 31 at the start of next season.

Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts:  Garcon will be just 26 next year.  If Wayne moves on as expected, Garcon re-signs and Manning is healthy enough to play, Garcon will likely be a borderline WR1 next year.  If he leaves, it’s a situation to monitor to see if he ends up in a spot where he is a first option like – gasp – Jacksonville (insert foreboding music).

Robert Meachem, New Orleans Saints:  Both Meachem and Marques Colston are UFAs, and you have to figure that the Saints focus on re-signing Colston.  I’m looking for Meachem to land as a WR2 somewhere.  He’s produced when he has played as a primary option, so if he ends up in a situation where he gets more playing time, he could be a good value player.

Mario Manningham, New York Giants:  With Victor Cruz emerging this season, it’s a safe bet that the Giants let Super Mario move on to greener pastures.  In the unlikely event that he stays in New York, his value is seriously capped by Cruz.  If he leaves, his value will greatly depend on the type of offense that he lands in.

Other interesting UFAs:  Vincent Jackson, Steve Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Jerome Simpson

Tight End

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers:  Early on this season, there’s no way anyone thought the Packers would let Finley walk.  He had a down year coming off of ACL surgery though, and there has been talk that the Packers would use the franchise tag on Matt Flynn to protect his trade value.  The Packers likely won’t sign Finley to a long-term deal after his performance this year, so it’s probably franchise or bust.  It is interesting, because with the distribution of targets in Green Bay, depending on where Finley went, if he was a second option in a good offense, a la Dallas Clark in his heyday, it could actually increase his value.  A situation to keep tabs on, but I’m holding right now, because I don’t think you can get full value for him.

Fred Davis, Washington Redskins:  Davis is likely to sign a one year “prove it” deal with the Redskins in the wake of his three game drug suspension.  I mention Davis only because I actually feel like he is overvalued right now.  Yeah, he has immense talent, but he is one failed drug test away from a one year suspension.  I just don’t trust him.

Jacob Tamme, Indianapolis Colts:  Tamme has chance to move to another team and prove his 2010 season was not a Manning-fuelled fluke, but that he has some real talent.  While the former is probably closer to reality, if he ended up on a team that used the tight end as a real pass catching option, he could have some value moving forward.

Other interesting UFAs:  Martellus Bennett, John Carlson, Joel Dreessen, Kellen Davis

Kickers

Neil Rackers, Houston Texans:  Ha!  Just kidding!