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The Latest from Iran (26 May): Propaganda Watch

Scott Lucas — Sat, 26 May 2012 11:57:00 +0000

1605 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Rozen adds valuable detail to our news and analysis of the nuclear talks in Baghdad. She describes how there nearly was no agreement to another meeting in Moscow --- some of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) were pushing for a harder line than others on the language to be offered to the Iranians in a statement summarising Baghdad's discussions and looking to the future.

In the end, the European Union's Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1, worked out a compromise text. In her press conference at the end of the meetings, she said, "Significant gaps remain" between Iran and the 5+1, but there was enough common ground for another round of talks.

Ashton reportedly used the Iraqi hosts and the Chinese and Russian delegations to ensure the acceptance of the Iranians, who proposed Astana in Kazakhstan, Beijing, or Moscow as the next venue.

1355 GMT: From Defector to Hero to Prison. Shahram Amiri, a scientist in Iran's nuclear programme who defected and then "re-defected" to a hero's welcome from the regime, has reportedly been sentenced to 10 years in prison and five years in exile.

A discussion on the US Public Broadcasting System in 2010 about the Amiri case:

1155 GMT: Nuclear Spin Watch. We noted earlier that both US and Iranian outlets, rather than dealing with the substance of the International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report, were putting out preferred messages (see 0610 GMT).

It looks like the Institute for Science and International Security, the think tank prominent for its declarations of Iran's threat, is getting in on the act. Using the Associated Press, it declares, "Iran has significantly stepped up its output of low-enriched uranium and total production in the last five years would be enough for at least five nuclear weapons if refined much further."

The ISIS, or at least the AP summary, does not note the flaw in its warning, namely the assumption "if refined further" --- the IAEA declared in its report that there was no evidence that Iran's uranium was being diverted to a military programme.

1119 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Brigadier General Hossein Salami, the Deputy Commander of the Revolutionry Guards, has declared, "Today, there is no base in the region lying outside the reach of the Iranian missiles."

1115 GMT: Currency Watch. The Iranian Diplomacy website claims that a three-year-old foreign exchange deal with China has been uncovered, in which the Islamic Republic left oil income to Beijing in exchange for lines of credit to buy Chinese goods.

1110 GMT: Fraud Watch. Peyke Iran claims that former high-ranking staff in the Ministries of Labour and Industry are among six prominent Government defendants in the $2.6 billion bank fraud case.

The 12th hearing in the trial is scheduled for Sunday in Tehran.

0650 GMT: Nuclear Spin Watch. Journalist Barbara Slavin cuts through the propaganda (see 0610 GMT) to get to the essence of the International Atomic Energy Agency's report: "Nuclear Monitors in Iran Detect ‘Unalarming’ Enrichment".

0610 GMT: We open this morning with an analysis linking the nuclear discussions with economic issues, "Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind".

And this is not the only case of reality and rhetoric this morning. On Friday, the latest International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme was posted. The conclusion is a brief re-statement of the IAEA's position in recent years --- while there is no evidence of Tehran's diversion of uranium to a militarised effort, the Agency would like wider access to Iranian facilities, confirmed by the Islamic Republic's accession to the Additional Protocol of the Safeguards Agreement regulating inspections:

While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

If there is breaking news in the report, it is the IAEA's optimism after recent talks with Iran, including Director General Yukiya Amano's discussions in Tehran on Monday:

Progress was made on a structured approach to clarifying the issues outlined in the Annex to the Director General’s November 2011 report. The Director General invites Iran to expedite final agreement on the structured approach, as agreed with Mr Jalili, in Tehran on 21 May 2012, and urges Iran to engage the Agency on the substance of the issues as soon as possible, including by providing early access to the Parchin [military] site.

This, however, did not necessarily fit the preferred narratives of media outlets in the US and the Iran. So the Associated Press, fed by "diplomats", decided to put out the scary story that Iran had enriched some uranium to 27%, beyond the 20% level that Tehran has claimed. The problem for the attempt at scariness was that 1) the 27% figure could be explained by technical aspects of the process, rather than malicious intent and so 2) the AP's implication of an Iranian push for military weapons capability was unsupported.

Meanwhile, Iran's Press TV sets out the mirror image, "IAEA Report Says No Diversion in Iranian Nuclear Program", omitting all other passages, including the call for more inspections and safeguards.

Iran Snap Analysis: Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind

Scott Lucas — Sat, 26 May 2012 05:23:07 +0000

The second round of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) on the nuclear programme are now receding. The third, to be held in Moscow, are more than three weeks away.

So it is now time for the Islamic Republic to put out stories about its economic achievements and success in repelling the aggressive sanctions of the "West". Press TV offers an example:

Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano says Tokyo is considering "realistic" options to ensure the country's imports of Iranian crude are not disrupted.

"We are responding to this [Iran] issue through working with other ministries as a whole," Edano told reporters at a press conference in Tokyo on Friday. He added, "By analyzing various risk factors and overall issues, we would like to ensure crude supplies [from Iran] will not be disrupted in a realistic manner."

Here is what Press TV leaves out --- the already-significant impact of the sanctions on Japanese purchases of Tehran's oil, with the possiblity of more constriction --- from the original report by Platts News Service:

Earlier this month, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, which handles 70-80% of the settlements for Japan's trade with Iran, was reported to have frozen accounts held by Tehran in response to a May 2 order by a New York District Court....

The Japanese government is also considering guaranteeing up to $7.6 billion of insurance cover per tanker for shipments of Iranian crude oil to make up for the potential loss of protection and indemnity cover when European Union sanctions against Iran come into effect in July.

Unsurprisingly, Press TV fails to note that Japan's "imports from Iran have fallen sharply despite an increase in overall oil demand after last year's Fukushima nuclear disaster" and that Minister of Economy Edano said earlier this year that Tokyo's purchases of Iranian oil are down 40% over the last five years.

But Press TV is not alone in its insistence that All Is Well. Former US Government official Flynt Leverett takes up the mission:

Before the nuclear talks started again last month in Istanbul, Tehran calculated that American and European Union sanctions policies created at least as many problems for the United States and Europe as for Iran....The Iranians assess that the Obama Administration has an interest in keeping the negotiations going at least through the U.S. presidential election in November.

It is certainly true that Iran's media outlets and spokesmen like academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi, who often sets the line followed by Leverett, are putting out the message that it is the US and Europe, not the Islamic Republic, who are economically weak --- this, rather than a genuine desire for agreement, is why Washington and allies are pursuing the nuclear talks. However, the argument is propaganda, not assessment, leaving the important question whether the Tehran's officials actually believe the illusions of their rhetoric.

If they do, then they may be in for an awakening as they go to Moscow on 18-19 June. Given the economic difficulties within Iran, which cannot be masked by rose-coloured proclamations, and the European Union's cut-off of Iranian oil imports from 1 July, US and European governments believe they have the upper hand. Having planned for alternative supplies to cover the drop in oil taken from Tehran, they can afford to play the game long. It is far from certain that the Islamic Republic can do so.

Still, there are ripples that could change the scenario. Amid this week's headlines of the nuclear talks, this item has gone almost unnoticed, even by an Iranian media looking for glimmers of good news:

China's imports of Iranian crude oil recovered in April after sharp drops earlier this year, suggesting Beijing remains a steady customer despite U.S. efforts to tighten sanctions on Tehran.

China's April crude imports from Iran, at 1.6 million metric tons or about 390,000 barrels a day, were down almost 24% from a year earlier --- but up more than 48% from March.

Could Beijing offer some release from the economic ties that bind Iran? It is a question such as this, rather than the daily All-Is-Well fare of State media, that will affect the calculations going into the third, perhaps "make-or-break", round of the nuclear talks.

The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Scott Lucas — Fri, 25 May 2012 09:15:48 +0000

Nikahang Kowsar on "time" and the Supreme Leader after the Baghdad nuclear talks

2015 GMT: Co-operation (and It's With the US) Watch. An American company, Lawrenceville Plasma Physics, Islamic Azad University have agreed to collaborate on joint design of a nuclear fusion machine that "would be affordable to construct in industrializing nations".

LPP claimed in a written statement that the project qualifies for an official US Treasury Department exemption from sanctions for "collaborati[on] with academics and research institutions on the...creation and enhancement of written publications".

1803 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Scott Peterson has a telling follow-up quote from an Iranian diplomat who was speaking with him throughout the Baghdad talks, "I think [they were] a complete failure, in terms of content. The more they talk, the worse it gets."

Peterson's description makes clear that a tough opening proposal by the 5+1 Powers did not include a reference to easing of sanctions or a recognition of the level of enrichment that would be acceptable inside Iran.

1737 GMT: Surveillance Watch. The US Department of Commerce is reportedly investigating Chinese telecommunications equipment maker ZTE Corp for selling embargoed computer products to Iran.

Reuters reported in March and April that ZTE had signed contracts to ship millions of dollars worth of hardware and software, from some of America's best-known tech firms, to Telecommunication Co of Iran, the country's largest telecom carrier.

Investigators already have met with representatives of ZTE. A spokesman for ZTE, based in Shenzhen, China, declined to comment.

The U.S. product makers, including Microsoft Corp, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, and Dell, have all said they were not aware of the Iranian contracts. The Commerce Department official said there is no evidence the American companies were complicit in the transactions. However, sources indicate some of the U.S. companies have received subpoenas requesting information about their dealings with ZTE and a Chinese trading company, Beijing 8-Star International Co, which also was a party to the Iranian contracts.

1624 GMT: Nuclear Spin Watch. Earlier today (1240 GMT) we traced with scepticism a headline claim, fed by unnamed "diplomats" to the Associated Press, that Iran had enriched uranium to 27%, thus moving closer to capability for nuclear weapons. We noted both the timing, coming just after the Baghdad talks, and the lack of support for the assertion from the International Atomic Energy Agency, even though it had supposedly found the devious Iranian behaviour.

Now Barbara Slavin adds another reason to damp down the furour:

A report today by the Associated Press that nuclear inspectors have found traces of uranium enriched beyond 20 percent at Iran’s Fordow enrichment plant appears to reflect changes in the design of centrifuge cascades rather than a deliberate Iranian effort to get closer to weapons-grade uranium.

Slavin also notes the latest numbers from the IAEA: Iran has 6197 kilogrammes of low-enriched uranium and 145.6 kilogrammes at the higher 20% level. Of the 20% uranium, 45.6 kilogrammes was produced at Fordoo.

1607 GMT: Nuclear Showdown Update. Earlier today we asked in our analysis:

We are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because "if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken"?

Looks like we already have an answer, at least to the first question. And that answer is "No".

Far from drawing the lesson that the hard-line on sanctions --- i.e., not to breathe a word about easing them --- might have brought the Baghdad talks close to breakdown, "a senior American diplomat" is pushing a different conclusion. He argues the discussions proved that the threat of tough economic measures will bring Iran on its knees to a settlement:

Maximum pressure is not yet being felt in Iran....[New sanctions, such as the European Union's 1 July cut-off of Iranian oil imports, will] increase leverage on the negotiation as it proceeds forward.

The Iranians don’t like it. They hope and would rather we not put additional sanctions on. Indeed they are not at all pleased that soon after Istanbul [the first set of talks, in mid-April], the President [Barack Obama] signed a new executive order [sanctioning Iran for supplying technical assistance to Syria to repress dissidents]. We heard about that.

1341 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Update. No surprise about Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami's theme today, as he talks tough about the Baghdad nuclear talks: “Iran is saying something logical which is possessing peaceful nuclear energy is the right of every nation, particularly the Iranian one and this (Iranian) nation will not give up its right [to enrichment of uranium].”

Khatami continued, “The Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has also said that we are not seeking to build atomic bombs. What else do you want? It is you who must build confidence. I speak on behalf of the Iranian nation that they will not be held to ransom."

1335 GMT: Oil Watch. Minister of Oil Rustam Qassemi and the head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi have signed a deal to share oil income tween the Revolutionary Guards' and Basij's engineering outlets, Khatam al-Anbia and Khatam al-Ousia.

1315 GMT: Revolutionary Guards are Watching. Revolutionary Guards commander Ebrahim Jabbari has declared that "enemy subversives" want to hit the Revolution. He said "insulting Imams" started in the reformist era, represented by former President Mohammad Khatami, who is "a traitor" and "should apologise".

Jabbari continued that detained opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi is anti-Revolution and that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is "a low person".

1305 GMT: Death-to-the-Rapper Watch. Ayatollah Alamolhoda offers some helpful advice to the regime: "A fatwa is not enough for execution of an apostate, it needs planning".

Alamolhoda's statement follows the recent declarations by clerics and politicians that rapper Shahin Najafi should be executed for his "insult" to the 10th Shi'a Imam in his song "Naqi" about the political and social problems in the Islamic Republic.

1240 GMT: Leak of the Day. A day after the conclusion of the Baghdad nuclear talks, unnamed "diplomats" have told the Associated Press that the International Atomic Energy Agency found evidence at the Fordoo plant of uranium enriched up to 27%.

If true, this goes beyond Iran's recent declaration of capability to enrich to 20%, although it is far short of the more than 90% purity needed for nuclear weapons.

The timing of the revelation is curious, not only because of the proximity to the inconclusive Baghdad talks but also because IAEA head Yukiya Amano said Tuesday, after a trip to Tehran, that the Agency and Iran were close to an agreement on a protocol for inspections of nuclear facilities.

The IAEA would not comment on the allegation.

1202 GMT: Fighting Over the Revolutionary Guards. Mojtaba Zolnour, the former representative of the Supreme Leaders to the Revolutionary Guards, has hit back at the allegation of MP Ali Motahari that the Guards intervened in this spring's Parliamentary elections.

Zolnour said that Motahari's claims associate him with the deviancy of foreign media like CNN and the BBC. He added that Motahari "should not play with the principles of his father", Ayatollah Ali Motahari, renowned for his role in the Islamic Revolution.

1145 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). In a show of support for the Damascus regime, Fars highlights the invitation extended by President Ahmadinejad to his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad to attend the 16th summit of the heads of state of the Non-Aligned Movement, to be held in Tehran in late August.

1025 GMT: Parliament Watch. It looks like the Revolutionary Guards have given a loud endorsement to Gholam Ali Haddad Adel --- former Speaker of Parliament and member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle --- as the next Speaker.

Fars, linked to the Guards, posted an interview with Haddad Adel this week, with its reporter calling the 7th Majlis, which Haddad Adel supervised, "one of the best". Haddad Adel agreed, saying that he was proud of the fact that there were no fistfights in the assembly.

Haddad Adel, whose daughter is married to Ayatollah Khamenei's son Mojtaba, said his goal was to coordinate the Parliament with the guidance and wishes of the Supreme Leader. The Majlis would support efforts for national production, the theme that Khamenei has chosen for this Iranian year.

Haddad Adel is challenging current Speaker Ali Larijani for the post.

0910 GMT: Nuclear Watch. And now Washington's post-Baghdad reassurance to West Jerusalem:

The United States' top negotiator in Iran nuclear talks is visiting Israel to consult on regional issues, the U.S. State Department said Friday.

Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman will "reaffirm our unshakeable commitment to Israel's security," according to a department statement.

0752 GMT: Nuclear Watch. More spin from Press TV this morning, notably the declaration of lead Iran negotiator Saeed Jalili that Tehran is still insisting on the right to enrich uranium to 20% on its soil.

There is also the (misleading) headline that it is Tehran's proposals which hold the high ground: "Iran Offer for P5+1 Under Study", as well as a denial that the Iranian delegation met US counterparts for bilateral talks at any point during the Baghdad negotiations.

0742 GMT: Nuclear Watch. What were the "non-nuclear" issues in Iran's five-point proposal to the 5+1 Powers in Baghdad? Fars offers a clue:

Iran's top negotiator Saeed Jalili said the disturbing situation in Bahrain was among the topics of the talks between him and representatives of the six world powers in Baghdad, explaining that the negotiations included cooperation in nuclear and non-nuclear areas.

"Security of waters, campaign against narcotics and Bahrain were among the topics which went under discussion in the Baghdad talks, in addition to nuclear issues," Jalili told reporters...."Iran raised its views about democracy in Bahrain and the other side offered some proposals which included countering sea piracy and security of waters and campaign against illicit drugs".

If Tehran did include Bahrain in its package, it's safe to say that the 5+1 Powers would have turned this aside as a central point for negotiation. And while issues such as anti-drug and anti-piracy measures do offer ground for agreement, the US and Europe will be cautious: in part discussions, such as talks in Istanbul in January 2011, they have been seen as attempted diversions to avoid the tough negotiation on Iran's nuclear programme.

0730 GMT: Nuclear Watch. We have now posted an analysis, "4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next", with the assessment: "There can no repeat of Baghdad next month, no rescue with yet another agreement to talk elsewhere in a few weeks' time. Iran does not have that time."

Despite that conclusion, Iran's media is upbeat. Press TV, far from a fan of the British Government in the past, hands over its headline space to London: "British Foreign Secretary William Hague has said the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (the P5+1) are ready to take concrete steps to build confidence." Fars proclaims, "From Baghdad to Moscow: Opportunity to Strengthen Diplomacy and Iran". And IRNA trumpets, "Germany is Ready to Provide Assistance for Iran's Nuclear Energy".

0520 GMT: The headline from the two-day nuclear talks in Baghdad between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) is that the two sides will keep talking. The next round will be in Moscow on 18-19 June.

Later today, we will have a special analysis. For now, we re-post our immediate assessment from Thursday night, posted just after the statement by Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1:

1. Ashton tipped off the large gap between the 5+1 Powers and Iran on approach and proposals. The US and Europe effectively said, "We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment." Iran said at the same time, "Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want."

2. This gap was so wide that the Iranians were on the point of walking away from the talks on Wednesday night. Ashton's emergency session with Iran's Saeed Jalili --- almost two hours --- plus intervention from China and Russia probably averted that breakdown.

3. Moscow as a location for the next talks is a concession to Iran for continuing to talk. So is the date --- the discussions come two weeks before the European Union is scheduled to ban imports of Iranian oil.

4. But Moscow is now "make or break". Either the US and Europe find enough to reverse the 1 July ban on Iranian oil, or the negotiations will break down with Iran's declaration that the West will accept nothing less than its capitulation.

Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next

Scott Lucas — Fri, 25 May 2012 06:33:35 +0000

Iran Delegation at Baghdad Talks1. THE UNBRIDGEABLE GAP

"Significant differences remain."

With those three words, Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia), summarised the near-failure of the two-day nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad.

For all the chatter about behind-the-scenes preparatory talks between the two sides, the 5+1 --- led by the US and its European allies --- put down an opening proposal which was never going to get a welcome from the Iranian delegation, even as a starting point. The demands remained, notably Iran's commitment to give up enrichment of uranium to 20% and the closure of the Fordoo enrichment facility. The incentives were limited --- Iran might be able to enrich to 3.5%, with supplies of 20% uranium from outside countries --- and even insulting: the reference to the key issue of sanctions was "We could give you some spare parts for your civilian aircraft, having withheld these for years."

The Iranians quickly tabled their own five-point plan. No details emerged, beyond Iranian State media's declaration of a comprehensive package on nuclear and non-nuclear issues. It's safe to presume, however, that Tehran was drawing the line of explicit recognition of its right to enrich and an initial Western gesture on economic and financial restrictions.

In short, the US and Europe announced, "We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment." Iran replied, "Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want."

Despite twists and turns over the next 36 hours, those positions were not significantly altered.

2. THE NEAR-BREAKDOWN

By Wednesday, the Iranian delegation was on the point of a walkout and an effective suspension of talks after the second round in Baghdad. The message was across the Islamic Republic's media, with its denunciation of the "outdated" US-European proposals and the claim that, due to American pressure, the promise of the opening discussions in Istanbul had been withdrawn. It was also in the statements being given by Iranian diplomats to Western journalists:

This is what we were afraid of. No one is going to accept these things this way. [Giving up] the 20 percent and shutting down Fordow [enrichment plant], in return for nothing? Nothing?

3. A TEMPORARY RESCUE

We do not know the details, but Ashton's emergency session with Saeed Jalili, the lead Iranian negotiator, on Wednesday night probably averted a breakdown. The question was then whether a face-saving and negotiation-saving announcement could be arranged on Thursday.

The rescue came not through any shift in the positions of the two sides, but through some diplomatic framing. The talk throughout Thursday, including in the Iranian press, was that a third round of talks would be in Geneva. However, the eventual location was Moscow.

Just like the agreement to have this round in Iraq, with the perception of its support for Iran's line, the choice of Russia --- usually framed as more accommodating of the Islamic Republic on the nuclear issue and sanctions --- for the next discussions on 18-19 June is a gesture to Tehran.

Even more important is the timing. The Moscow meeting will come two weeks before the guillotine --- the European Union's ban on imports of Iranian oil --- drops. Both in its symbolic and "real" effects, that suspension will be a significant tightening of the economic screw on Tehran.

And let's be clear: the Islamic Republic faces that prospect in a precarious position, given the combination of inflation, unemployment, declining production, currency issues, and a cut-off of imports and a choke-off of exports.

4. MAKE-OR-BREAK IN MOSCOW

So there can no repeat of Baghdad next month, no rescue with yet another agreement to talk elsewhere in a few weeks' time.

Iran does not have that time.

The question then is how far the US and Europe go in their pressure, backed by the sanctions. Do they insist that the Islamic Republic effectively say "Uncle" before any relief is offered? Or is there truly a step-by-step process in which Iran will be able to enrich uranium to 5%, under well-defined inspections and safeguards, and have a guaranteed supply of 20% fuel for civilian uses such as medical isotopes?

If the Islamic Republic balks at the terms of that agreement --- because, for all the talk of its "five-point plan", the US and Europe have the initiative --- then it has chosen the risk of economic and possibly political turmoil as well as renewed chatter about an Israeli military attack on its nuclear facilities

However, it will try to turn that risk to advantage. The regime will proclaim that it is the victim of Washington-led aggression, trying to rally international sympathy and --- more importantly --- domestic support. It will put out a message of defiance rather than surrender.

We are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because "if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken"?

Iran Special: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After E3+3 Talks

James Miller — Thu, 24 May 2012 18:30:47 +0000

The E3+3 (sometimes known as the 5+1 Powers) talks with Iran about its nuclear program have ended in Baghdad. The parties have agreed to meet in Moscow on 18-19 June to continue the discussions.

STATEMENT BY CATHERINE ASHTON, HIGH REPRESENTATIVE
FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND SECURITY POLICY AND VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE COMMISSION IN BAGHDAD ON 25th MAY 2012

First of all, I would like to thank the Iraqi government, and in
particular Foreign Minister Zebari, for the excellent hospitality and
organisation of these talks.

The E3+3 remain firm, clear and united in seeking a swift diplomatic
resolution of the international community's concerns on the exclusively
peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme, based on the NPT, and the
full implementation of UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors
Resolutions. We expect Iran to take concrete and practical steps to
urgently meet the concerns of the international community, to build
confidence and to meet its international obligations.

We have met with our Iranian counterparts over the last two days in very
intense and detailed discussions.

In line with our agreement in Istanbul, the E3+3 laid out clear proposals
to address the Iranian nuclear issue and, in particular, all aspects of
20% enrichment.

We also put ideas on the table on reciprocal steps we would be prepared to
take.

Iran declared its readinness to address the issue of 20 percent enrichment
and came with its own five-point plan, including their assertion that we
recognise their right to enrichment.

Having held in-depth discussions with our Iranian counterparts over two
days - both in full plenary sessions and bilaterals -it is clear that we
both want to make progress, and that there is some common ground. However,
significant differences remain. Nonetheless, we do agree on the need for
further discussion to expand that common ground.

We will go back to our respective capitals and consult. We will maintain
intensive contacts with our Iranian counterparts to prepare a further
meeting in Moscow with arrival on 17 June with talks on 18th an 19th June

As we have already agreed, the talks will be based on a step-by-step
approach and reciprocity.

We remain determined to resolve this problem in the near term through
negotiations, and will continue to make every effort to that end.

The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

Scott Lucas — Thu, 24 May 2012 05:21:56 +0000

EU's Catherine Ashton & Iran's Saeed Jalili1925 GMT: Nuclear Watch Special. Back from a break for a run to find the confirmation by the European Union's Catherine Ashton --- see statement in separate feature --- that there will be a third set of nuclear discussions, in Moscow on 18-19 June, between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China).

There is much more to the statement, however. We will have a special analysis tomorrow, but note for now:

1555 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The latest inside information from Laura Rozen is that the final plenary session has just begun in Baghdad. She indicates that the summit will end in an announcement of a third round of formal meetings, although details are not clear:

There should be a technical level meeting, and diplomats meeting in next couple weeks, diplomat said. Venue unclear.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 24, 2012

Chinese and Russians been helpful, EU dip said. P5+1 stayed v. United. Iranians not complaining abt EU sanx as much in meetings as in press.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 24, 2012

1422 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Rozen announces that the delegations will go back to the table at least one more time, passing on news from the European Union's Catherine Ashton:

Ashton spokesman just announced there will be another plenary in an hour. Looks like we are in Baghdad a second night.
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 24, 2012

The meeting follows Ashton's cancellation of a press conference as the Chinese and Russian delegations met with Iran's Saeed Jalili.

1414 GMT: Currency Watch. The Iranian Rial has fallen sharply today, losing more than 5% of its value against the US dollar, reaching 17500:1.

On Wednesday, the Rial was at 16630:1, producing the headline in The Guardian, "Iran's Currency Up Against Dollar Amid Optimism over Baghdad Nuclear Talks" --- misleading because the Rial, amid attempts by the Central Bank to prop it up, had been even stronger a week earlier.

The official rate for the Rial is 12260:1. At its low point during a crisis this winter, the currency fell as low as 21000:1.

1404 GMT: Misery Watch. Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi has asserted that "Western freedom is sinful" and brings "nothing but misery".

1359 GMT: The Battle Within. The Ministry of Intelligence has filed a complaint against Fars for "spreading false news" about Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi.

Fars had claimed last May that President Ahmadinejad criticised Moslehi for failing to control Iran's currency and gold crisis.

1352 GMT: Nuclear Watch. A sign of the improved environment in Baghdad? Fars, which had derided the US-European approach on Wednesday as "outdated", now headlines that the 5+1 Powers have "changed" their line and mentioned the lifting of sanctions.

1332 GMT: Nuclear Watch. A summary of today's manoeuvres at the Baghdad talks....

The morning started as Wednesday night ended, with a bilateral meeting between the European Union's Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia), and Iran's Saeed Jalili. This was followed by a plenary session of all six delegations.

After a break for lunch, the plenary resumed and journalist Laura Rozen, one of the best sources for developments, reports, "Afternoon better than morning."

Rozen writes that Ashton will soon hold a press conference.

1312 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back after an academic break to find this note from journalist Scott Peterson about the Baghdad talks: "Iranian diplomat says next meeting Geneva 'impossible', and talks atmosphere 'like Baghdad's weather' --- where sandstorm closed airport."

And I see a revelation whose timing is very interesting --- the US Government-funded Radio Farda writes that the Islamic Republic has installed 250 new centrifuges at the Fordoo uranium enrichment plant.

The opening line of the US and European delegations in Baghdad is that Fordoo, revealed in autumn 2010 as a complement to the Natanz enrichment facility, must be closed because it could provide the 20% uranium suitable for further enrichment for a military programme.

The Radio Farda story is based on a Reuters article on Wednesday, fed by two "Western diplomats", that a report of the International Atomic Energy Agency "may have placed in position nearly 350 machines since February --- in addition to the almost 700 centrifuges already operating at the Fordow facility --- but that they were not yet being used to refine uranium".

Reuters' Fredrik Dahl adds the gloss, "[This] is likely to be seen as a sign of continued defiance by the Islamic state of international demands to suspend such activity."

0857 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Literary translator Mohammad Soleimani Nia has been released on bail after more than four months in detention.

Earlier this month, Soleimani Nia, who has yet to be charged, agreed to suspend a hunger strike after 28 days.He was in solitary confinement for most of his time in prison.

0848 GMT: Nuclear Watch. More signs of disappointment from the Iranian delegation this morning, with one official declaring to Reuters, "What we heard in Istanbul [in last month's opening talks] was more interesting...We believe the reason P5+1 is not able to reach a result is America. [The 5+1 Powers] came to Baghdad without a clear mandate so we think the atmosphere is difficult."

More dramatic is the warning that the process could be suspended, with an official telling AFP, "It seems that the basis for another round of negotiations doesn't exist yet, unless...the two sides reach an agreement."

0756 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mahmoud Dardkeshan, a commander in the Iran-Iraq War who was close to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been summoned to Qom Prison to serve a one-year sentence.

Dardkeshan, who has been arrested 10 times since the 1980s, has also been banned from any public speech, programme, or gathering for seven years for his "propaganda against the system, activities against the state, and publishing lies to disturb public opinion against the authorities".

0745 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking at Tehran Azad University, has called for recognition of diverse views in the Islamic Republic: "Even though the Revolution was victorious with the leadership of clergymen and the presence of the people, we should not forget about the role of different political groups. Unity of those different groups made us victorious."

The former President stressed the need to respect the people’s will, staying within the law and avoiding extremes

Rafsanjani also reassserted his recent move on the international front, calling for better links with countries such as the US and Saudi Arabia, saying it was important "to correct our foreign policies in order to develop and move forward".

0520 GMT: We begin with a snap analysis covering Day 1 of the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) and looking forward to Day 2, "A Way Out of Pessimism?"

Meanwhile, a couple of signs from media coverage....

Even though the headlines in The Washington Post and The New York Times are wildly different ("Nuclear Talks with Iran Show Little Progress" v. "Iran Talks Are Extended as Signs of Common Ground Are Seen"), both are being given the signal by the US delegation that it will be happy with an outcome of another formal set of talks this summer. One official summarised, "It has been a difficult day, but I take that as a good sign. It means we have engaged with each other and discussed difficult issues.”

Meanwhile, the Iranian State media appears to be playing wait-and-see. In contrast to its earlier emphasis on the Islamic Republic's substantive five-point proposal v. the "outdated" offer of the "West", IRNA sticks with a matter-of-fact announcement of Day 2. And Press TV has not filed a story since its own outdated headline last night, "P5+1 Divided on Response to Iran’s Comprehensive Package".

Iran Snap Analysis: A Way Out of Pessimism for the Nuclear Talks?

Scott Lucas — Thu, 24 May 2012 04:51:52 +0000

It is Day 2 of the nuclear talks in Baghdad between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China), and we are looking for signs for a breakout from the disappointment and pessimism --- at least as put out by the Iranians --- that marked the course of yesterday's discussions.

When we ended Live Coverage on Wednesday, the dominant message was that carried by Scott Peterson in the Christian Science Monitor, based largely on access to the Islamic Republic's delegation:

"This is what we were afraid of," says the Iranian diplomat. "No one is going to accept these things this way. [Giving up] the 20 percent and shutting down Fordow [enrichment plant], in return for nothing? Nothing?

However, those comments were made before the European Union's Catherine Ashton, speaking for the 5+1, met Iran's lead negotiator Saeed Jalili for almost two hours last night. And it is notable that the spin handed out by the US side to The New York Times is far from gloomy (even if it does not merit the rosy headline, "Iran Talks Are Extended as Signs of Common Ground Are Seen"):

A senior American official said that despite disagreements some common ground had been reached, suggesting that diplomats had extended the constructive atmosphere that has prevailed since the talks on Iran’s disputed nuclear program were resumed last month.

“We’re getting to things that matter,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the talks. “Even if we disagree on the shape, we think there is the beginning of a negotiation.”

Perhaps more importantly, Iran's State news agency IRNA does not feature the downbeat assessment given to Peterson by the Iranian delegation. Instead, it just offers a matter-of-fact narrative of the meetings through Wednesday, with the headline emphasising the agreement on a Day 2.

So perhaps the one definite that can be said at this point is that "success" will consist, as the "senior American official" indicated, in agreeing a third round of formal talks for next month.

However, that only returns us --- and, more significantly, Tehran --- to a bigger uncertainty. The US and its allies can afford that "success" and take their time; Iran may not be able to. As we noted at the start of Wednesday:

Here's the problem. The Islamic Republic may not have the time to "play long". The economy is tottering. The US, Europe, and now some countries and institutions elsewhere have put the squeeze on Iran's Central Bank and financial transactions. And now 1 July looms --- the day that the European Union imposes a ban on imports of oil from Iran.

Barring an unforeseen level of agreement today, how does Tehran cope with that Damocles' Sword?

The Latest from Iran (23 May): Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

Scott Lucas — Wed, 23 May 2012 16:36:47 +0000

The European Union's Catherine Ashton meets Iran's Saeed Jalili at today's nuclear talks in Baghdad

2050 GMT: Nuclear Watch. After a bilateral meeting between the EU's Catherine Ashton and Iran's Saeed Jalili of almost two hours, discussions have ended in Baghdad for today.

2010 GMT: Nuclear Prediction Comes True. EA this morning:

Iranian media features the line of politicians and clerics that any discussion must begin with a "Western" offer to ease sanctions. That is the requirement for the talks to move to consideration of limits and monitoring of Tehran's enrichment.

Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor this evening:

"The response from the Iranian side is: 'What you are asking for is ... not what we agreed to in Istanbul,'" an Iranian diplomat close to the talks [said[, referring to the demands of six world powers that include Iran capping uranium enrichment and scrapping a deeply buried facility.

Steps were meant to be “reciprocal, simultaneous, and ... balanced” in their value to each side, says the Iranian diplomat. Instead, Iran was told there would be “consideration” of easing sanctions “later,” after Iran made concessions.

EA this morning:

Behind the public pose, there has to be a significant assurance by the Americans and Europeans over sanctions, on the basis that Iran will not demand self-sufficiency in enriching uranium to 20%.

Peterson this evening:

"This is what we were afraid of," says the Iranian diplomat. "No one is going to accept these things this way. [Giving up] the 20 percent and shutting down Fordow [enrichment plant], in return for nothing? Nothing?"

1835 GMT: Nuclear Watch. A "Western diplomat" says that the European Union's Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, and Iran's Saeed Jalili are now in a bilateral meeting.

1830 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Some confusion in Baghdad --- the Iranian delegation has briefed the Islamic Republic's press that there will be a second day of talks, but the 5+1 Powers will not confirm this. Instead, both sides are in an evening plenary session:

"We certainlyare prepared to go on to 2nd dayif useful, but we remain hard at work tonight for as long as needed" western official says
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 23, 2012

1800 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Laura Rozen sends a message from Baghdad:

Iranian del media advisor backgrounding as sides trying to spin what seemed a difficult day of talks yfrog.com/esuv4xvj
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 23, 2012

1700 GMT: Budget Watch. The saga of the 2012/2013 Budget has ended, albeit with some grumbling by the President....

The proposals were submitted two months late by the Government and further held up by objections from the Parliament, which insisted on changing such as a halving of funds to support the subsidy cuts plan.

President Ahmadinejad effectively disowned the plan today, calling its an "MPs project", even thought he signed off on the measures.

1600 GMT: Nuclear Snap Analysis. Not much of substance so far out of today's Baghdad talks --- instead the interest in the tactics....

First, the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) put forth their package for a controlled, limited Iranian programme for uranium programme. That was far from news, given that diplomats had already leaked the proposal last night:

The United States and its P5+1 partners will offer fuel for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR) plus safety upgrades to the plant, which is of 1960s vintage. Also potentially on the table: new research reactors that use lower level 3.5 percent enriched uranium, safety upgrades for Iran’s one functioning nuclear power plant at Bushehr and spare parts for its accident-plagued fleet of civilian airliners.

In return, Iran must stop producing uranium enriched to 20 percent and halt activities at Fordow, an enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. It is not clear whether Iran would also have to send out its stockpile of more than 100 kg of the fuel....

Western officials told Al Monitor that the package does not include sanctions relief at this stage.

This was unlikely to make Tehran jump up and shake hands, given the Islamic Republic's insistence that sanctions be eased in advance of, let alone in return for, its concessions over enrichment.

So the Iranian delegation pretended, at least publicly, that it had not heard anything: "Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, said...the P5+1 put forward a set of new proposals to Tehran. Iran has not confirmed receiving the package yet."

Instead, Tehran said, in effect, "It's our plan on the table." Or, as Press TV wrote:

Iran says that it has offered a comprehensive package to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1)....

Tehran made the announcement after the negotiating sides wrapped up the first session of their meeting in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, on Wednesday.

According to sources close to the Iranian negotiating team, the Islamic Republic has not shifted its principle [sic] positions.

Talks are scheduled to continue later in the evening and more negotiations are slated for Thursday.

Little is known about the Iranian proposals other than the spin that they are "a five-pivot plan" on the "nuclear program and other international issues".

However, IRNA does slip and admit that it heard the 5+1's offer, even if "Iranian representatives have not received any written proposal":

Comparing the Iranian package of proposals with that of the Group 5+1, the correspondent said that Iran’s package is comprehensive, but, the other party has gone into details.

“The problem with the G5+1 package is that there is no balance and there is nothing to get in return for what they give.”

He said that Iranian package has been drawn up in line with Istanbul talks last month and in the context of Non-Proliferation Treaty.

“It envisages step-by-step methodology to resolve the dispute and is well-balanced on give-and-take basis.”

Translation: 1) the 5+1 have not offered anything on sanctions; 2) the 5+1 have not been explicit, at least in Tehran's eyes, in recognising Iran's right to enrichment.

Now, will the 5+1 Powers allow Tehran to take the inititiative? Or will they pretend that they have not heard anything and return to their proposals, possibly shouting them out more loudly?

I bet on the latter.

1353 GMT: Economy Watch. Barbara Slavin offers an economic overlay for today's nuclear talks:

The unofficial devaluation of the currency has also increased inflation, hurting Iranian consumers and businesses.

According to Bijan Khajehpour, an Iranian business consultant based in Austria, inflation in the Iranian fiscal year that ended in March was about 27% and will exceed 32% this year. Unemployment is at least 20% — much higher for young people and for women --- and Iran’s per capita gross domestic product shrank by 18.6% last year to about $4,500, he said.

“Iran’s overall business confidence has not been this low since the final year of the Iran-Iraq war [in 1988],” Khajehpour told an audience at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on Tuesday, May 22. “Economic stakeholders have lobbied for a de-escalation in foreign relations.”

1320 GMT: Parliament Watch. The take-away lines from Ali Larijani's last press conference as Speaker of the 8th Parliament are over the economy: "If the government were to increase the price of petrol and people’s staple needs, a disaster would occur....The surge in prices is a problem attributed to the amount of cash supply in the country, which has increased from 650,000 billion Rials to 3,500,000 billion Rials over the past seven years. If money had been injected into the production sector, inflation might have been controlled."

Larijani is being challenged for the Speaker's post in the new Majlis by former Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel.

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The chief editor of the suspended weekly journal Sobhe Azadi, Reza Jelodarzade has been sentenced to one year in prison for anti-regime propaganda.

Jelodarzade was acquitted of the charges of harming national security and plotting the downfall of the regime.

1305 GMT: At the Movies. A group of protesters have gathered in front of the House of Cinema, following an Administration Court decision cancelling the Ministry of Culture's ban on the organisations for filmmakers.

The men said that if necessary, they would also demonstrate in front of the Ministory of Culture and the judiciary.

1235 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Iran's Press TV is claiming from an "informed source" that the Baghdad talks will continue into a second day.

1115 GMT: Suppressing the Journalists. Reporters Without Borders turns the tables on the Islamic Republic, after its delegation to the United Nations Human Rights Council called on Bahrain to “free all political prisoners, put a stop to arbitrary arrests of government opponents and end the impunity reigning in the country".

Reporters Without Borders agrees with Iranian government officials although it is amazed that they dare to lecture others when hundreds of political prisoners, including 31 journalists and 18 netizens, are languishing in Iran’s own jails....

According to the information obtained by Reporters Without Borders, journalists are being summoned for interrogation at the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, a censorship agency that has been turned into an all-out mechanism of control and repression since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president.

The summonses are issued by Mohammad Hosseini, the minister, and two of his aides, Mohammad Jafar Mohammad Zadeh, deputy minister for press affairs and information, and Mohammad Javad Aghajari, the head of the foreign press department.

When journalists are summoned to the ministry, they are questioned there by Ministry of Intelligence officials and members of the Revolutionary Guards. Those summoned include journalists who work for foreign media. The interrogations are often violent and journalists are mistreated.

1010 GMT: Challenging the Revolutionary Guards. An episode which illustrates tensions over the outgoing Parliament, which ends its session today, and remarks by MP Ali Motahari about intervention by the Revolutionary Guards in elections for the new Parliament....

Pro-Ahmadinejad MP Hamid Rasaei, was telling colleagues on Tuesday that as the 8th Majlis is coming to an end, "We should try and leave good memories in people’s minds". However, Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar cut his microphone, saying the remarks should be left to the end of the session.

Rasaei persisted and was again cut off.

At that point, another Ahmadinejad backer, Mehdi Koochakzadeh yelled, “Why is it okay to talk about Sepah (the Guards) and say they are against revolution?”

0920 GMT: Death to the Rapper Watch. Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the leader of the conservative Motalefeh party, has joined the clerical voices calling for death for rapper Shahin Najafi over his song "Naqi".

0916 GMT: At the Movies. The Administration Court has cancelled last year's closure of the House of Cinema, the umbrella group for Iran's filmmakers and actors, by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

The court said revision of the order was necessary.

Digarban reports that President Ahmadinejad has responded quickly by saying he will attend Thursday's meeting of the High Council for Cinema.

0913 GMT: Fraud Watch. Facing criticism that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is not among 85 defendants listed in the trial over a multi-million dollar insurance fraud, the judiciary has said Rahimi's file is still open even though a complaint has not been issued against him yet.

0910 GMT: Gender Watch. Aftab reports that women, facing restrictions on being unaccompanied in cafes with hookahs, are paying 25,000 Toman (about $20 at official rate) for male escorts.

0848 GMT: CyberWatch. Fars reports that the Islamic Republic's "CyberHezbollah" will hold its eighth meeting in Tehran on Wednesday. On the agenda is the case of rapper Shahin Najafi's “insults regarding one Shi'ite Saint".

Najafi has been condemned to death by clerics, with a website offering a bounty for his execution, over his song "Naqi", which invokes the name of Shia's 10th Imam to criticise Iranian politics and society.

0708 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. He may have been sidelined in the Islamic Republic's nuclear talks with the "West", with his supporters sniping at the discussions, but President Ahmadinejad is still grabbing for the limelight.

Press TV headlines Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, using a photo opportunity with an advisor to the Sudanese President, “Today, arrogant powers and the enemies of mankind have put pressure on independent nations and governments, including Iran and Sudan. It is upon all independent nations and governments to stand up against expansionists through solidarity, brotherhood and supporting one another."

And news breaks that Ahmadinejad will visit China in June for a "security summit", with the gloss that he will discuss nuclear issues with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

0705 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. A significant concession from the Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini --- although he did not present it this way --- on Tuesday, as he said that the timing for the implementation of the second phase of subsidy cuts is "not clear".

Government officials said in December that the second phase was "imminent", but the plan has been beset by political criticism and economic difficulties.

0625 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Another sign backing our caution about major developments, at least in public, in today's Baghdad talks:

Officials from the administration of US President Barack Obama stressed their intention to maintain a tough stance during talks with Iran, according to Jewish leaders who met with top White House staff on Monday.

Ahead of negotiations in Baghdad over the Iranian nuclear program, the officials said that the US has no plan to reduce sanctions during the talks, and that it was their firm expectation that the EU would still be imposing an oil embargo on Iran at the beginning of July with no exemptions for British shipping insurance, participants said.

Some 70 members of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations met with US Vice President Joe Biden, Deputy National Security Adviser Denis McDonough, Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides and other administration officials in a series of closed door meetings.

0610 GMT: Today's lead Iran story comes from neighbouring Iraq, where the Islamic Republic's officials will resume formal talks with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) over Tehran's nuclear programme.

What to watch for? We offer an analysis, "A Guide to Watching Today's Nuclear Talks".

Perhaps surprisingly --- given my distrust of his tough-guy, pro-Israel approach while he was in the Obama Administration --- EA's assessment intersects with that of Dennis Ross:

I don't believe that we should be looking at [today] as being a make-or-break meeting where if there isn't an unmistakable breakthrough then the process isn't a real process. One doesn't need to see a breakthrough in these talks. That's unrealistic at this point. The idea that you have a breakthrough after only two rounds, I think, given everything going on, is just not realistic....

There needs to be an indication that the talks really do have a kind of intensive ongoing character and they're meeting on almost what I would describe as nearly a continuous basis.

What Ross omits, however, is the Damocles' Sword over that notion of a long, developing negotiation towards a deal. We note:

Here's the problem. The Islamic Republic may not have the time to "play long". The economy is tottering. The US, Europe, and now some countries and institutions elsewhere have put the squeeze on Iran's Central Bank and financial transactions. And now 1 July looms --- the day that the European Union imposes a ban on imports of oil from Iran.

Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Standing Against Homophobia, Defending Students, and More (Arseh Sevom)

Scott Lucas — Wed, 23 May 2012 07:58:34 +0000

Arseh Sevom, the NGO promoting civil society in Iran, post their summary of latest developments:

Anti-Homophobia Campaign in Iran

May 17th marked the International Day against Homophobia and Transphobia. With sodomy remaining an offense which can be punishable by death, youth in Iran have begun a Facebook campaign to give voice to a message of anti-homophobia.

A report in Persian is accompanied with photos of small actions of defiance.

An Iranian student organization called “Iranian Liberal Students and Alumni” has issued a memo demanding an end to all kinds of homophobic behavior.

Are There Homosexuals in Iran?

“Our tradition is one of love,” says a man interviewed as part an eleven minute film featuring a number of young Gay and Lesbian Iranians. “What we got from the West was actually homophobia, not homosexuality.”

Internet Repression Especially Difficult for Iran’s LGBT Community

The Small Media Foundation has released a report on Iran’s online LGBT community:

Blogging has been central to the lives of Iranian LGBTs since it ventured online, but posting content online and interacting with other internet users is also inherently dangerous. LGBT bloggers and social media users living within Iran‘s borders must protect their identities stringently and reports of people being entrapped by the authorities on LGBT dating sites are prevalent.

Noam Chomsky Joins “Speak Out for Imprisoned Students” Campaign

The American scholar, Noam Chomsky, has joined the “Speak Out for Imprisoned Students” campaign in solidarity with the Iranian students:

I would like to join in the appeal to the Iranian Government to release the students who have been imprisoned on alleged security-related crimes, without the semblance of a fair and open trial. Surely the time has come to release them and allow them to return to their studies and to pursue their political activities without interference, and to make their contributions to the flourishing Iranian society and the world of peace and freedom to which all of us aspire.

One Step Closer to Fully Segregated Universities

In an interview with the Iranian Student News Agency (ISNA), the head of the free education office of the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology discussed plans to segregate more universities, announcing “the highest number of applications for establishing gender segregated institutes of higher education are from the provinces of Tehran and Khorasan-e-Razavi.” He added that permits will also be issued for segregated institutions in the cities of Urumiyeh, Shiraz, and Sari and the provinces of Khuzestan, Kermanshah, Zanjan, and Golestan.

1800 “Amin Madrasas” to be Founded

In addition to gender segregation at the university level, the Iranian educational system is to undergo another transformation with the establishment of alternative religious schools, Amin Madrasas.

Tehran’s Shargh newspaper reports that 1800 pre-seminary schools are to be opened across the country. Based on the plan, these schools will work at the levels of primary, middle, and secondary school for boys and girls, teaching “religious sciences” along with general subjects to the students.

Out on Bail? Into Prison

Over the past few weeks, journalists, lawyers, scholars, and other activists have been arrested or summoned to prison to serve prison terms. This past week was no exception.

Jaras posted a report that journalist, translator, and editor Rahman Bouzari was transported with Ward 350 of Evin Prison where he was is to serve the sentence of “two years imprisonment and 70 lashes". He had been arrested last year and June and was out on bail when he received the summons to report to prison to serve his term.

According to a report from Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), Bouzari was in the process of defending his Masters’ thesis in Philosophy. Despite an earlier agreement to allow him finish his thesis defense and then begin his prison term he was summoned by an unexpected telephone call on Saturday (19^th of May).

On Monday Fariborz Raisdona, a prominent economist known for his outspoken criticism of corruption, was also summoned to serve a one-year sentence. He was arrested in 2010 after criticizing subsidy cuts in an interview with BBC Persian.

Case Dropped but Cartoonist May Still be Flogged

An Iranian cartoonist from Arak, Mahmoud Shokraye, was sentenced to 25 lashes for drawing his local MP, Ahmad Lotfi Ashtiani. (See our weekly review of May14, 2012.)

Kalemeh now reports that the head of the Justice Ministry’s branch in Arak has announced that “despite the case having been dropped by Lotfi", the verdict is still in effect, and “if Mahmood Shokraiyeh does not appeal within 20 days, the sentence will be executed".

“Say You Received Money from Foreigners or Go to Jail”

Last week, human rights activist, lawyer – and now prisoner of conscience --- Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, told the International campaign for human rights in Iran, that he is under immense pressure by his interrogators to make televised confessions that he received money from foreigners or go to prison. Dadkhah said, “and [obviously] I will go to prison and not even leave my motherland".

Six Awhazi Arabs Face Unfair Trials

Amnesty International has expressed fears that six Ahwazi Arabs arrested in February face unfair trials and risk torture. The six are charged with the vague offences facing many dissidents and minorities: “enmity against God", “gathering and colluding against state security”, and “spreading propaganda against the system". They went on trial on 20 May.

More Fatwas Against Rapper, Activists Protest

Shahin Najafi’s new controversial song, "Naqi", continued making news last week. The number of likes on one of the several Facebook pages dedicated to the rapper has now reached 221,015. Ayatollahs Makarem Shirazi (who also issued a ruling calling the Holocaust a superstition) and Hossein Nouri-Hamedani, have weighed in on the side of the death fatwa, ruling that Najafi is an “apostate”).

Our colleagues at United For Iran called on Iranian authorities to condemn the incitement to murder from clerics and other forces.

Iranian Morals Police Chief: Not all Dishes Work!

Last week, the chief of Iranian morals police police, Ahmad Roozbehani, announced the national re-launch of the moral security project. Discussing the project’s details at a press conference, Roozbehani said that “the police tell those [women] who display some of their hair [to observe the hijab correctly] but those who appear in the streets like ‘fashion models’ will be directed to police headquarters to wear decent clothes and sign guarantees that they will not repeat such behaviour".

Roozbehani also claimed that people watch less satellite TV now, and “not all satellite dishes on rooftops work".

Aftab News reports Roozbehani as saying, “importing satellite receivers is organised and connected with soft threats [to Iranian society]". Aftab highlights Roozbehani’s explanation for a decline in the implementation of the moral security plan during the past years as “due to the unrest that followed the Presidential Elections in 2009".

Tabnak posted images of the recent crackdown.

Tehran’s Air Quality Reaches Alarming Levels

The general manager of the Air Quality Control Company in Tehran, said last week that the air quality in the city of 13 million people reached alarming levels and “like before, people with heart problems, pregnant women, and children are asked to refrain from unnecessary commuting in the city".

The Latest from Iran (22 May): Tehran Plays Up Hope for Nuclear Talks

Scott Lucas — Tue, 22 May 2012 05:44:59 +0000

Yukiya Amano and Saeed Jalili2009 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Iran continues to be upbeat about tomorrow's nuclear discussions, “Tehran is optimistic that the Baghdad talks would be a good start to promote cooperation in international, regional and nuclear issues."

However, this inside story from Laura Rozen and Barbara Slavin of Al Monitor may put a damper on expectations:

The United States and its negotiating partners have agreed on a detailed confidence-building proposal to offer to Iran at nuclear negotiations due to get underway Wednesday in Baghdad. The proposed package is an updated version of a 2009 uranium fuel swap proposal that takes into account Iran’s progress in enriching uranium, American, Russian and European diplomats said.

While the details of the proposed package have not been made public, Western officials told Al Monitor that the package does not include sanctions relief at this stage.

Iranian officials and State media have made clear that a significant easing of US-led sanctions, including a pause on the European Union's suspension of Iranian oil imports --- due to start 1 July --- must be on the table.

This is excluded from the proposal put out via Rozen:

Instead, the United States and its P5+1 partners will offer fuel for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR) plus safety upgrades to the plant, which is of 1960s vintage. Also potentially on the table: new research reactors that use lower level 3.5 percent enriched uranium, safety upgrades for Iran’s one functioning nuclear power plant at Bushehr and spare parts for its accident-plagued fleet of civilian airliners.

In return, Iran must stop producing uranium enriched to 20 percent and halt activities at Fordow, an enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. It is not clear whether Iran would also have to send out its stockpile of more than 100 kg of the fuel.

A "current American official sets out the line, "If we talk substantively on elements of a deal and agree to meet again in three weeks, Baghdad will have been a success. Just hope the Iranians are not deluding themselves they are going to get sanctions relief now—that’s not going to happen at this stage.”

1953 GMT: Fraud Watch. Mehr asks, "Under which pretence has [1st Vice President Mohammad Reza] Rahimi been excluded from the list of defendants in the Fatemi [insurance fraud] case?".

Rahimi has been connected to the long-running scandal over the multi-million dollar fraud, but was not listed among the 85 defendants revealed this week.

1940 GMT: Crisis of the Day. Iran has withdrawn its ambassador from Azerbaijan after clerics and politicians criticised Baku's hosting of the Eurovision Song Contest as a "gay parade".

The withdrawal for "consultations" in Tehran comes after months of accusations between the two countries of interference, espionage, and plots.

According to Fars, Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani said, "We heard that the government of Azerbaijan is hosting the international Eurovision Song Contest and that during this contest there will also be a gay parade."

Demonstrators in Baku responded with pictures of President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader alongside banners, "Azerbaijan does not need clerics-homosexuals!"

1935 GMT: Posture of the Day. On the eve of the formal resumption of nuclear talks, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has announced that two batches of domestically produced nuclear fuel plates --- based on 20% enriched uranium --=- have been delivered to the operator of the Tehran Research Reactor.

The October 2009 talks in Geneva, the closest that Iran has come to agreement with the US and European powers, were based on outside powers enriching Tehran's uranium to 20%. Similarly, the Tehran Declaration of May 2010 was based on a "uranium swap" with Iran sending out low-enriched fuel in exchange for 20% stock. When that deal was rejected by the US and its allies, the Islamic Republic asserted that it would generate its own 20% uranium.

1535 GMT: Arrest Watch. HRANA reports that dozens of people have been seized by police and Ministry of Intelligence agents in East and West Azarbaijan in recent days.

Some of those arrested were seized at a protest of the drying-up of Lake Urmia, a major environment issue, but most were reportedly taken in raids on their homes.

1525 GMT: Revolutionary Guards Watch. Rooz claims former Minister of Interior Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri has given the Supreme Leader a report that the Revolutionary Guards are the biggest debtor to banks with 45 trillion Toman (about $35.5 billion at official rates) in debts, causing a financial crisis.

1518 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). Peyke Iran reports that three Iranian truck drivers have been abducted in Syria.

Dozens of Iranians, mainly pilgrims and a group of engineers, have been seized in Syria since last autumn, although some have been released in recent weeks.

1504 GMT: Challenging the Revolutionary Guards. This weekend outspoken MP Ali Motahari went even further in his criticisms of activity within the regime, saying that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had intervened in the recent Parliamentary elections to ensure its candidates won. He was met with a wall of anger and rejection by the Guards.

Now Motahari has modified his statement, "I didn't say the entire Sepah (IRGC) was involved in the elections or rigged vote."

Instead, Motahari asserted, he had said that the IRGC should not get involved at all with the voting process, adding "Many commanders agree with that."

Digarban notes that many MPs, including critics of the Government such as Elyas Naderan, had challenged Motahari over his initial statement.

However, former MP Mostafa Kavakebian has supported Motahari, saying that the legislator has documents that prove the IRGC interference in elections and will present them if necessary.

1500 GMT: Politics Watch. Radio Farda hosts a debate about Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani's call for "free political parties" --- is this a tactical move for his candidacy for President in 2013?

1444 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Women's rights activist Mahboubeh Karami of the One Million Signatures Campaign has been freed on bail.

Karami was detained in March 2010, her fifth arrest for her activism. She was sentenced to three years in prison in February 2011.

A photograph of Karami (back row, 4th from left) with supporters after her release.

1435 GMT: Economy Watch. Back from an extended academic break to find that more than 5000 workers at brick furnaces have lost their jobs in Kermanshah Province in the last two years.

Workers blame subsidy cuts for closures of the works.

0821 GMT: Nuclear Watch. An update on our opening story and analysis....

Yukiya Amano, the head of the International Atomic Energy, has said on his return from talks in Tehran that an agreement on the IAEA's oversight of Iranian nuclear facilities will “be signed quite soon".

Amano said some details still need to be worked out but added that Iranian officials assured that those will not stand in the way of completing the deal.

0815 GMT: Tension in the Southeast. Golnaz Esfandiari summarises last week's tension in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, with at least one person killed and two injured after police forces opened fire on protesters in Rask on 14 May.

Reports indicated the protests were over the recent arrests of the city's Friday Prayer leader, his son, and other Sunni clerics.

Sunni Muslims, who are 10% of Iran's population, are a majority in Sistan-Baluchistan.

Deutsche Welle's Farsi Service quoted a source in Rask that a number of protesters were rounded up and more arrests could follow after authorities traveled from the provincial capital to investigate: "Protesters were filmed,...security forces came from Zahedan to identify [those who took part in the protest] and arrest them."

Abdolghafar Naghshbandi, the son of Rask Friday Prayers leader Molavi Fathi Naghshbandi, was reportedly arrested upon returning from nearby Zahedan, where he had traveled to learn about the fate of his father, who was imprisoned along with a number of other Sunni scholars in mid-April.

Molavi Fathi Naghshbandi and a dozen others were rpeortedly arrested in connection with the January assassination of pro-government Sunni cleric Molavi Mostafa Jang Zehi.

0605 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Mohamad Ghafarian has been sentenced to 3 1/2 years in prison and 70 lashes,

Ghafarian, an electrical engineering student at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, was given one year for insulting the Supreme Leader, two years for acts against national security, six months in prison plus 35 lashes for disturbing public order, and 35 lashes for insulting the President.

Mansour Radpour has died in Rejai Shahr Prison, apparently from a cerebral hemorrhage.

Radpour was arrested in 2007 and charged with sympathy for the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran. He was sentenced to three years for “activities against national security through collaboration with the PMOI”. After that time was served, he was handed another five-year prison sentence.

0545 GMT: We begin with a notable contrast in presentations of Monday's talks in Tehran between Iranian officials and Yukiya Amano, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Amano maintained a diplomatic line while revealing little about the discussions, which took place two days before the Islamic Republic meets formally with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) in Baghdad:

[The] negotiations were very useful. We held expanded and intensive negotiations in a good atmosphere. Definitely, the progress of talks will have a positive impact on negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. Of course these are two different issues but they can strengthen each other.

Asked about a framework agreement for inspection and safeguards on Iran's nuclear activity, Amano said only, "I will not go into details but the agency has some viewpoints and Iran has its own specific viewpoints."

Iranian State outlet Press TV is not so reserved. Indeed, it is almost gushing. It features the remark of Saeed Jalili, Iran's lead nuclear negotiator, "We had very good talks with Amano today and, God willing, we will have good cooperation in the future." To drive the point home, a second article profiles the Jalili-Amano meeting with the assurance that the Supreme Leader has said nuclear weapons are forbidden, "Leader Fatwa offers great capacity for N-disarmament: Jalili":

“The Islamic Republic of Iran's approach in opposing nuclear weapons is an important capacity for the agency and Iran will actively work with the agency toward [nuclear] disarmament…and peaceful use of nuclear energy,” Saeed Jalili said.

Amano's more cautious statement? It is headlined, "Talks with Iran in Good Atmosphere".

Iran's embrace of the IAEA should be matched with its opening line for the Baghdad talks: the initial step must be a Western easing of sanctions. Two stories on Press TV, including its top "Iran" article, drive the point home: "Lifting Iran Sanctions Can Prove P5+1 Goodwill: Lawmaker" and "Lifting Sanctions N-disarmament, Focus of Baghdad Talks: Iranian MP".

And behind the hope and the "You First" to the US and European powers, there is still the chest-thumping of the Islamic Republic's strength --- Fars is pushing this story:

Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi said threats and pressures cannot deter Iran from its revolutionary causes and ideals, and stressed that the Iranian nation will remain committed to the full annihilation of the Zionist regime of Israel to the end.

The Latest from Iran (21 May): A Freudian Slip on the Economy

Scott Lucas — Mon, 21 May 2012 10:45:40 +0000

1824 GMT:. Fraud Watch. In the 11th hearing in the trial of dozens of defendants over a $2.6 billion bank fraud, a former deputy at the Ministry of Industry has accused Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Parliament's National Security Committee, of involvement.

1813 GMT: Death to the Rapper Watch. Hojatoleslam Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, the head of the Administration Court, is the latest cleric to call for the killing of rapper Shahin Najafi because of his "insult to Imams" with his song "Naqi".

1810 GMT:. Reformist Watch. Former President Mohammad Khatami, in his first major statement since his controversial decision to vote in March's Parliamentary election, has said that "restricting free thought and speech will generate huge problems". He complained that, in the current environment, "one cannot accept reforms and question the system".

At the same time, Khatami distanced himself from radical change, "Those who want to topple the system have no relationship with the people."

An EA correspondent assesses that Khatami may have been prompted to act by the recent revelation that he had expressed regret for the March vote. Many reformists had called for a boycott of the ballot to meet the former President's conditions of freedom for political prisoners, freedom for political parties, and adherence to the Constitution.

1440 GMT:. Oil Watch. Industry sources indicate that South Korea will completely cut imports of Iranian oil after a European Union insurance ban takes effect on 1 July.

A source said of South Korea's largest oil refiner, "SK Energy won't lift Iranian crude oil after lifting a 2 million barrel cargo in early June SK Energy will not import Iranian oil for July arrival."

Industry sources said last month that the only other refiner that buys Iranian oil, Hyundai Oil Bank, will stop imports from June.

SK Energy had contracts to import 130,000 barrels per day from Iran under term deals for this year. Hyundai Oil Bank purchases 70,000 bpd.

1130 GMT:. Cartoon of the Day. Maya Neyestani portrays Mehdi Ramazani, the father of a young man, Ramin Ramazani, who died at the hands of security forces soon after the disputed 2009 Presidential election. Mehdi Ramazani was arrested in December 2010 as he visited his son's grave and was given a three-year prison sentence last week.

1055 GMT:. Ahmadinejad Watch. Rah-e Sabz reports a new complaint against the President from Parliament's Article 90 Commission because of his "insufficient answers" and failure to fulfil the law.

Rah-e Sabz also writes that four members of the "deviant current" --- a term often used for allies of Ahmadinejad --- have been sentenced to prison terms of 2 to 10 years and lashes for financial fraud in the Aras and Arvand Free Trade Areas.

0915 GMT:. Political Prisoner Watch. Economist Fariborz Raisdana has been summoned to Evin Prison to serve a one-year sentence.

Raisdana was arrested in December 2010 after he criticised the Government"s subsidy cuts plan, which had just been launched, in an interview with BBC Persian.

Mohammad Reza Motamednia, a senior regime official in the 1980s, has ended a 42-day hunger strike in prison after receiving a message from the detained opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi.

We reported yesterday that Mousavi's note, sent from his 15-month house arrest, to Motamednia --- his aide when Mousavi was Prime Minister in the late 1980s --- had been blocked by security forces.

0604 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. We have often noted outspoken MP Ali Motahari's outspoken criticism of President Ahmadinejad and the Government over political and economic. Indeed, this weekend Motahari went farther in his targets, alleging that the Revolutionary Guards were involved in manipulation of this spring's Parliamentary elections.

Fars, meanwhile, claims a different type of challenge by Motahari to Ahmadinejad --- the MP, chiding the President for failing to support an Islamic dress code for women, said Ahmadinejad should follow his Presidency by opening nightclubs: "The situation of the veil is tragic....thanks to the apparent and hidden encouragement by the President."

Motahari continued that Ahmadinejad and his Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai] have promoted a situation in which girls now "wear trousers, and coats that don't cover the knees....They have actually allowed sexual provocation...and now, they should think of opening nightclubs and cabarets."

The pro-Ahmadinejad daily Iran has responded by calling Motahari and other critics "lunatics", presenting the MP as the owner of a cabaret.

0427 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Today's story to monitor is the visit of International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano and two of his top officials to Tehran.

Amano's talks with Iranian officials come two days before Tehran sits down in Baghdad for formal discussions with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) on Iran's nuclear programme. Equally important, it comes after a week after technical conversations between the IAEA and an Iranian delegation that appear to have gone well.

Watch for the tone of the general "spin" that comes out today --- references to good discussions indicate the possibility of a similar outcome on Wednesday. And look for any details that might emerge of how the IAEA would support a deal on uranium enrichment through inspection and safeguards of Iran's facilities.

0415 GMT: We begin this morning with a "Freudian slip" --- "an unintentional error revealing subconscious feelings" --- from State news outlet Press TV, which has a press release from Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini:

The Iranian minister of economic affairs and finance says Iran attracted some USD 4.3 billion in foreign investment during the past Iranian calendar year (ended March 19, 2012).

Shamseddin Hosseini said that, according to statistics, foreign investment in the country grew from USD 1.8 billion five years ago to USD 4.3 billion last year, demonstrating an increase of 140 percent, Mehr news agency reported.

The minister added that a total of USD 2 billion in foreign investment was approved for 18 projects in the country in the first two months of the current year (started March 20, 2012), indicating a 120-percent rise, compared to the amount for the same period last year.

He went on to say that investment service centers have been established in 31 provinces in Iran to boost foreign investment.

Hosseini further pointed out that about 20 percent of the assets of the National Development Fund (almost USD 8 billion) can be used along with the foreign investment to boost national growth and development.

The Freudian slip? On the homepage for its Iran section, Press TV headlines, "Foreign Investment tops $4.3 in Iran".

The Latest from Iran (20 May): A Tip of the Hat to President Obama?

Scott Lucas — Sun, 20 May 2012 11:29:58 +0000

Nikahang Kowsar portrays a President Obama tying up Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with the cord of sanctions, "A good boy doesn't play with nukes"

1727 GMT: All the President's Men. Mehr reports that Hamid Pourmohammadi, the former deputy head of the Central Bank, is continuing to attend important meetings of the Ahmadinejad administration even though he is accused of playing a part in the $2.6 billion bank fraud and is currently free on bail.

Mehr published a photo of Pourmohammadi at the recent meeting of the Petrochemical Industry Development Committee with 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Pourmohammadi’s presence at government meetings has also been challenged by leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli on his website Alef.

1723 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Respond. Revolutionary Guards Commander Ramezan Sharif has hid back at the accusations of conservative MP Ali Motahari (see 1349 GMT) --- Sharif said the Guards had no role in Parliamentary elections and Motahari should present any evidence that he has.

The commander added that prosecution of Motahari for libel was possible.

1411 GMT: Sports Report. Mohammad Akefian, a gold medal-winning sprinter, has applied for asylum in Sweden after he was denied a visa by Iranian authorities for a competition.

Akefian had given a car, a present from President Ahmadinejad, to the headquarters of Mir Hossein Mousavi during the 2009 Presidential campaign./p>

1406 GMT: Book Corner. Minister of Culture Mohammad Hosseini has said that a biography of the Supreme Leader, covering his life to 1979, will be published soon after "final corrections".

Earlier this month, Ayatollah Khamenei's office banned publications and copies of the book were seized from the Tehran International Book Fair.

1349 GMT: Challenging the Revolutionary Guards. Looks like the vocal conservative MP Ali Motahari is making waves again --- he has accused the Revolutionary Guards of intervening in nine Parliamentary contests and "supporting strongly" their candidates in many districts.

1346 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rahman Bouzari, a journalist for the reformist daily Shargh, has been summoned to serve a two-year prison sentence.

1336 GMT: Manoeuvring for Negotiations. Three days before the formal resumption of nuclear talks, Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini is appearing on CNN to declare that oil prices might go as high as $160 per barrel if the European Union proceeds with a cut-off of imports of Iranian crude from 1 July.

“We must pay close attention when we speak of oil revenues and sanctions against oil sales, who are the winners and the losers of such sanctions?” Hosseini said, in an interview airing today. “Indeed, it is difficult. But not just for Iran. And we can all rest assured that there will be a considerable increase in international oil market prices. Now, is this the best approach?”

Hosseini maintained the Islamic Republic has endured sanctions for 33 years: “This really shows that the economy, the economic strength of Iran is in such a way that can withstand these sanctions and will not be the only economy to suffer.”

The price of oil was close to $110 per barrel in February but is now about $92.50.

1206 GMT: Suppressing the Journalists. Troubling news from Parisa Hafezi, the head of Reuters' Tehran bureau: "Have been banned from leaving Iran:((".

The Reuters bureau was shut by authorities last month, with 11 staff ordered to hand in press cards, over the agency's coverage of a story about Iranian women pursuing martial arts. Threats of arrest and detention have been made, and a prominent Reuters staffer has been summoned for questioning on at least two occasions.

1118 GMT: Crime Watch. Mehr features a Parliament report on smuggling which says only three of every 1000 cases are exposed. In 2009/2010, an estimated 19 to 24 trillion Toman ($15 to $20 billion at official rate) in goods were smuggled, but only 630 billion Toman (about $500 million) were discovered.

Prominent among the smuggled items were gasoline, clothing, boots, alcohol, rice, tea, and fruits.

1115 GMT: Bad Hijab Watch. Two of a series of photos posted by Mehr of Iran's "fashion police" protecting the country against inappropriate clothing:

0857 GMT: Fraud Watch. The first trial in the multi-million dollar Fatemi Street insurance fraud is scheduled for Monday.

There are 85 defendants, including administration officials; however, the name 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, whose name has been linked to the fraud, is not listed.

Arshama 3's Blog has background on the case.

0854 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Mehr reports that the Government has again postponed implementation of the second phase of subsidy cuts, in part because Parliament halved the budget for the programme.

The Ahmadinejad administration had said in December 2011 that the second phase was "imminent", but the plan has faced heavy political criticism and raised fears of even higher inflation.

0850 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Dastgheib has again requested the release of detainees such as the opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi Karroubi:

In my opinion Mir Hossein Mousavi is an innocent and sincere man. I ask God almighty for the freedom of Mir Hossein Mousavi, his honorable wife [Rahnavard], Mehdi Karroubi and all political prisoners, the majority of whom are people of faith, dedicated to prayer, fasting and the reading the holy Quran. I also ask our merciful God to grant all of Mousavi's wishes, for they are inline with our religious laws.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh claims that Mohamad Reza Motamednia, held in the medical clinice of Evin Prison, is on the 42nd day of his hunger strike, despite an effort by opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi --- held under strict house arrest --- to halt the fast.

Motamednia had said that he would only stop the hunger strike on a request by Mousavi, but security officials Motamednia's son from giving him Mousavi’s message.

Motamendia was a special advisor to Mousavi, then Prime Minister, and other senior officials during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s.

0610 GMT: It's not often you see Iranian State media casting President Obama in a good light, but Press TV does so this morning, "World Powers Hopeful about Iran-P5+1 talks in Baghdad: Obama".

The Iranian outlet's optimism is striking when neither The Washington Post nor The New York Times carry any story about the G8 summit, where the US President made his statement, and Iran. (However, it should be noted the the Times was fed the line by Adminstration officials on Friday, "Heading Into Talks With Iran, U.S. Sees Hopeful Signs".)

The reason for Press TV's decision to headline the story is clear in its text, as it cites that Times article, "These incentives may include easing restrictions regarding airplane parts."

Translation: the Islamic Republic is looking for a goodwill sign that the US and European powers will ease sanctions.

Question: does that gesture have to take place before Iran tables any proposal about its uranium enrichment?

The Latest from Iran (19 May): Bad Numbers for Ahmadinejad and Regime's "Islamic Awakening"

Scott Lucas — Sat, 19 May 2012 09:55:15 +0000

See also Iran Opinion: Turning the Islamic Republic into North Korea --- Does It Help the Situation?
Iran Special: The Nuclear Scientist, WikiLeaks, and the Executed Kickboxer
The Latest from Iran (18 May): Helping Damascus

1622 GMT: Claim of Day. Hamed Saleh-Abadi, a journalist for the reformist Donya-e Eghtesad, reports that former President Mohammad Khatami has expressed regret for his decision to vote in March's Parliamentary elections.

According to Saleh-Abadi, Khatami said, "The political atmosphere daily becomes more restricted. My vote must have shocked society. I accept criticism for it."

Before the election, Khatami had set the conditions for participation of freedom for political prisoners, adherence to the Constitution, and free activity of political parties. Many reformists and members of the opposition refused to vote on the grounds that those conditions were not met.

1620 GMT: Picture of Day. Claimed photograph of student activist Mahdieh Golroo, leaving Evin Prison today, after 30 months behind bars:

1340 GMT: Playing the Saudi-Bahrain Card. Four of Press TV's top nine stories in its Iran section are actually about Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, such as "US, Saudi Arabia Seek Access to Bahrain Bases for Anti-Iran Purposes".

The most provocative article? "Saudi Wahabis Pay USD500K for Assassination of Iran Sunni Cleric":

A report says Wahhabi circles in Saudi Arabia had paid around USD 500,000 for the assassination of an Iranian Sunni cleric in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan earlier this year.

Two of the individuals recently arrested on suspicion of involvement in the assassination of Molavi Jangi Zehi have confessed that they received the sum from Saudi Wahhabis, the report said on Friday.

Jangi Zehi, the Friday prayers leader of Iran's southeastern town of Rask, was assassinated by terrorists after saying prayers in the evening, as he was on his way home in the Sistan and Baluchestan Province on January 20, 2012.

Over the past year, the late Iranian cleric publicly expressed his belief that revealing the crimes of the Riyadh and Manama regimes is a religious duty of the Sunni scholars in Iran.

1330 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert (Oil Edition). Press TV trumpets:

Italy’s oil imports from Iran have increased by 6 percent in March in comparison to the previous month, despite the European oil embargo on the Islamic Republic.

According to Italy’s oil refining industry body Unione Petrolifera (UP), the European country raised crude imports from Iran to 425,200 tons in March from 401,600 tons in February.

Italy’s oil purchases from Iran in the first three months of 2012 were 1.69 million tons, while the country imported about 1.44 million tons of Iranian crude in the January-March period of 2011, UP data revealed on Wednesday.

Everything OK, then? Not quite. Press TV changed one phrase when it modifed this report from Reuters:

Italy raised crude oil imports from Iran by about 6 percent in March from February ahead of the planned new sanctions against Tehran.

"Ahead of" --- in other words, Italy, which takes more than 10% of its oil from Iran, is stockpiling before the European Union's ban on imports from Tehran takes effect on 1 July.

1235 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Mahmoud Amjad has derided "death fatwas", such as those issued against writer Salman Rushdie in 1989 and rapper Shahin Najafi this month, as foolish and dangerous.

Amjad, who taught in Qom and Tehran, left Iran in protest against the regime's oppression after the disputed 2009 Presidential election. He is now in Malaysia.

1020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Mahdieh Golroo has been released after 30 months in Evin Prison.

1010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Nuclear Edition). Shahin Dadkhah, a member of Iran's negotiating team on the nuclear issue during the Khatami Government, has been sentenced to seven years in prison for "contacts with a hostile government".

0952 GMT: Ahmadinejad Propaganda Watch. "Hard-line" media analyst Abbas Salimi-Namin has accused State broadcaster IRIB of using archive photos to give a misleading impression of "success" of President Ahmadinejad's visit to Mashhad in northeastern Iran earlier this month. He claims that witnesses said far fewer people were present than were shown in the pictures.

0950 GMT: Currency Watch. Looks like the Central Bank is still worried about the stability of Iran's currency --- it has forwarded a list of illegal exchange offices to security forces and declared that 620 official offices must report their trade to the Central Bank's data centre.

The Iranian Rial, which weakened last week after a bounce-back earlier in the month, stands at 16900:1 vs. the US dollar in the open market. The official rate is 12260:1.

0630 GMT: We begin with a 21-nation survey by the Pew Research Center of attitudes around Iran. Pew's headline is "A Global 'No' To a Nuclear-Armed Iran", but we are more interested in the political dimensions of the outcome.

The survey offers bad news for the regime's projection of an "Islamic Awakening" following the path of Iran's 1979 revolution and the next 33 years:

Iran is...unpopular in many predominantly Muslim nations who are its neighbors. Roughly six-in-ten Lebanese (61%) give the Islamic Republic a negative rating, although views are sharply divided among the country’s major religious communities. About nine-in-ten Lebanese Shia Muslims (91%) hold a positive view of Iran, compared with just 5% of Sunni Muslims and 32% of Christians.

In Turkey, where diplomatic tensions with Iran have increased over the last year, 55% of the people have an unfavorable opinion about Iran, while only 26% express a favorable view.

Jordanians (79% unfavorable) and Egyptians (76%) give Iran especially poor marks. Moreover, ratings for Iran have declined precipitously since 2006, when 59% of Egyptians and 49% of Jordanians expressed a positive view.

There is also a generation gap on this question in some countries in the region. Young people in Tunisia, ages 18-29, are 16 percentage points more likely to have an unfavorable view of Iran than are people 50 years of age and older. In Turkey the generation gap is 14 points, while in Lebanon it is ten points.

The return for President Ahmadinejad is similar, except in two locations:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad receives largely negative reviews in most of the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. However, Pakistan is again a major exception. About half of Pakistanis (47%) express a favorable opinion of Ahmadinejad, while just 6% give him an unfavorable rating (47% do not offer an opinion). Also, a plurality of Tunisians (42%) hold a positive view of the Iranian leader.

Once more, Lebanese opinions are split along religious lines, with nearly all Shia (95%) expressing a favorable view of Ahmadinejad and nearly all Sunnis (92%) offering a negative rating. Nearly six-in-ten Christians (57%) also see him in a negative light.

About half of Turks (48%) and large majorities of Jordanians (83%) and Egyptians (73%) have an unfavorable view of the Iranian president.

One immediate lesson from the numbers: the Islamic Republic's strategy for influence has looked to Egypt as a focal point, with the ousting of the Mubarak regime and the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood as a leading political force offering opportunities for Tehran.

We had a far different view from early 2011, arguing that any Egyptian faction, including the Brotherhood, would be looking to local concerns rather than Iranian guidance for its policies. The highly unfavourable view of the Iranian regime in Pew's numbers is powerful support for that analysis.

Iran Opinion: Turning the Islamic Republic into North Korea --- Does It Help the Situation?

Josh Shahryar — Sat, 19 May 2012 07:00:54 +0000

The only way to save the world from conflict is to starve the people of Iran.

At least that's what a new op-ed by several prominent Israeli and American political figures proposes. "Total Sanctions Might Stop Iran", published in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, lays out a grand proposal for further sanctions on Iran with a stern warning: "Our near future carries the risk of a military conflict with Iran, or a nuclear arms race in the already-volatile Middle East." The sanctions are composed of four steps:

A) Cutting off Iran's access from international banking system absolutely and completely;

B) Making it impossible for companies to operate in Iran by requiring them to disclose business and investment transactions, exposing them to the risk of "reputational harm";

C) Prohibiting all international cargo shippers from servicing Iranian ports and cutting Iran's access from international shipping. This could be accomplished by US and European Union laws for a 10-year entry ban on any tankers or general cargo vessels that have docked at Iranian ports in the past 36 months;

D) Prohibiting Iranian insurers and reinsurers from doing business in the EU and US.

To their credit, the authors --- three of whom are the former heads of the intelligence services of the US, Israel, and Germany --- do bring up the plight of Iran's population if these sanctions are implemented. They, however, brush these worries aside by claiming that, as Iran's economy is controlled by the regime and it is harming the people anyway, and half-hearted measures like earlier sanctions are just as detrimental.

For the authors, these harsher sanctions are perhaps the last step to avert a military conflict with Iran, showing the regime that the world is serious about preventing Tehran from getting nuclear weapons. However, they offer no timetable for when the effects of these sanctions might be visible or if and when Iran will have to be struck if these sanctions fail. Meanwhile, Iran's 75 million people ill be forced to scratch out a living inside a country that is heavily reliant on other producers for food. And that's just one vital import.

These proposed sanctions are not just crippling. They will force the regime to evolve into an entity that fulfils all the needs of its people, from food to medicine, with restricted exchange outside the country.

There is a small glimmer of hope for the people of Iran that the regime will find some countries willing to do business with it. Those countries, however, will likely turn the Islamic Republic from one which a few years ago was selling goods to a wide variety of clients at market rates to one that buys essential import items from whatever source it can find at inflated prices.

And if the second option is unavailable, then Iran would have to become an autarky.

The term is derived from the Greek word autarkeia, which means self-sufficiency. And if we're going to bring up autarkeia, let's also delve into another word --- Juche. It's from the Korean language and is the driving ideology of North Korea, one of the few countries in the world which claims to be an autarky. One of its meanings is "self-reliance" to become self-sufficient.

The immediate parallel one might note is that the present North Korea, despite sanctions, has the nuclear weapons that sanctions are supposedly going to deny Iran. However, there is a further, bigger issue.

The problem with harsh sanctions is the speculative nature of the exercise of implementing often inhuman measures on entire populations for the deeds of their undemocratic, unelected, and dictatorial rulers. Suppose these sanctions are implemented. We do not have an example to show that a country like Iran will halt its nuclear programme. However, we do have a North Korea, hobbled by sanctions for years and attempting to become economically self-sufficient, where the regime chooses to make its people suffer to attain nuclear weapons.

Here's a third word: khod-kifaayee. It's Persian for "self-sufficiency". Keep it in mind as pundits and former officials continue to put out their recommendations in the Wall Street Journals of the world.

Iran Special: The Nuclear Scientist, WikiLeaks, and the Executed Kickboxer

Scott Lucas — Fri, 18 May 2012 11:10:41 +0000

Reuters' report on the execution of Majid Jamali Fashi

This is a story of how news is reported and created. It is a story of political manoeuvres, by actors from Iran to Israel to the US, and of propaganda.

It is a story how, amidst all this, a man --- set up for the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist --- was arrested, sentenced, and executed.

On Tuesday, Majid Jamali Fashi, a 24-year-old kickboxer, was hung in Evin Prison on the charge of killing Masoud Alimohammadi with an explosive in January 2010. Press TV headlined, "Iran Executes Mossad Assassin of Top Nuclear Scientist". The Times of Israel, drawing from an article in The Times of London, put the provocative question, "Did a WikiLeaks document doom Iranian ‘Mossad agent’?"

This is a story of trying to establish the truth and significance between --- and far beyond --- these extremes.

In December 2010, as we were covering the initial releases of the WikiLeaks documents emerged, we posted a story which we thought combined the serious and the outlandish, "The Regime's Ninja Assassins?". The source was a 1 September 2009 despatch from the US Embassy in Azerbaijan, which had spoken with an Iranian "martial arts trainer and coach":

Private martial arts clubs and their managers are under intense pressure to cooperate with Iranian intelligence and Revolutionary Guard organizations, both in training members and in working as "enforcers" in repression of protests and politically motivated killings....

XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Iranian internal security forces are highly suspicious of these clubs as potential vehicles for organization and "combat" training of future protesters and regime opponents. Nonetheless, he asserted that their main motivation is seeking to control these clubs is less driven by such fears as by a desire to deploy their trained membership at will for "special tasks." According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, these tasks range from providing martial arts training to Revolutionary Guard members and Basij, assistance in protest repression, intimidation, and crowd control, to political killings. He observed that use of these clubs and their members provides the security forces with "plausible deniability" for dirty undertakings, as well as trained fighters and potential trainers.

XXXXXXXXXXXX said he personally knew one such martial arts master whom he said was used by the Intelligence service to murder at least six different individuals over the course of several months in the Tabriz area. XXXXXXXXXXXX said that the victims included intellectuals and young "pro-democracy activists," adding that his assassin acquaintance was ultimately "suicided" by the authorities (i.e., killed in what was subsequently labeled a suicide).

At that point, we had not heard of Majid Jamali Fashi. But a month later, we learned of his arrest and "confession" on Iranian State TV --- he said he had worked for the Israeli intelligence service Mossad to carry out operations, including the killing a year earlier of the nuclear scientist Alimohammadi.

While writing that story, we learned that Jamali Fashi was a kickboxer. And we also learned that in August, about the time of the mysterious conversation at the US Embassy in Baku, he was winning a medal in a competition in Azerbaijan.

There was more. Claims were circulating that Jamali Fashi was one of the "enforcers" mentioned in the WikiLeaks cable, beating up protesters after the disputed Presidential elections. We also were still sifting the competing possibilities over the death of Alimohammadi, including the allegation that a "maverick" group within the Iranian establishment was carrying out killings. A valuable EA correspondent tried to put this all together:

One theory goes back to October-November 2009 when it emerged that these kickboxers were deployed in the streets of Tehran to counter the Green protestors. The idea is that Jamali is being "silenced" by the (rogue?) security forces who enlisted him.

I pressed the correspondent, "Why would he be an embarrassment? Was he going to speak?". He replied, "Well, we don't really know that."

And we never did. We re-posted the January 2011 story when Jamali Fashi was sentenced to death in August, again in a hearing with no public evidence apart from the "confession". Then we learned on Tuesday, in Iranian State media's announcements, of the execution.

That might have been that --- justice served, amid the US-Israel threat, according to the regime; another unjustified casualty of the post-2009 conflict, according to others --- except for the WikiLeaks angle.

The Times of London wanted to establish if Jamali Fashi had been "outed" to the regime, even if the name and some details of the source were hidden, by the WikiLeaks cable we noted in December 2010. During their inquiries, a reporter called me to consider the possibilities.

In the end, having reviewed notes, I said that Jamali Fashi was probably not the person who had spoken to the US Embassy --- he was a kickboxer, not a "martial arts coach and trainer". However, I thought there might be a connection between that source and Jamali Fashi, given that the kickboxing team was in Azerbaijan at the same time. And if I made that connection, regime officials --- who paid close attention to WikiLeaks --- could have done the same.

More importantly, I said, the regime did not need any "proof" of a connection if they wanted to put Jamali Fashi forth as the killer of the nuclear scientist: "[The cable] could have been used as a pretext against him; to set him up as a person who could take the fall for the assassination."

Reflecting, I wonder if I emphasised enough that the regime, as in many other cases, could have used many bases to point the finger at Jamali Fashi. A rumour had circulated at the time of his arrest that he regretted his role as an "enforcer"; if so, and if he said this to too many people, he could have been seen as a trouble-maker. There may have been another argument which had led someone to denounce him. Or he coud just have been expendable

In any case, The Times posted, in the London edition and in overseas outlets, my comment that WikiLeaks ""could have raised Iranian suspicions" or "alternatively" that it served as a pretext. " In the process, however, WikiLeaks became the headline about Jamali Fashi, "WikiLeaks Cable May Have Led Tehran to Hang Kickboxer for Scientist's Murder".

Other outlets went farther. The Daily Mail of London, which effectively plagiarised the article in The Times, converted the possible into the definite: "WikiLeaks Cable 'Led Iran to Hang Kick-Boxer It Claims Was Israeli Spy Who Assassinated Nuclear Scientist'".

So I decided to go back to the story once more. And what I quickly found was that there was more than one despatch from the US Embassy Baku in summer 2009. Four days before the cable we had seen in December 2010, the Embassy had posted another version of the conversation with the "martial arts coach and trainer".

The significance in this version was that it did not withhold the name of the source or the details about him and his martial arts school. (Given the context of this case, I am not reproducing the cable.) Those additions make clear that Jamali Fashi was not the person who spoke to the Americans. Indeed, given that the source had left Iran in mid-July, with the aim of getting a visa for a foreign country, it is unlikely that he had any connection with the kickboxing team that was in Azerbaijan.

Does the immediate story end there? Probably. Majid Jamali Fashi did not seal his fate by speaking with the US Embassy in Baku in August 2009, only for his words to appear publicly months later. That fate may have influenced by an Iranian official who made guesses about the source in the original WikiLeaks document or who thought that, regardless of the truth, it could be a prop for Jamali Fashi's arrest, trial, and execution. Given the absence of public evidence in this case, we will never know.

But then, at least for me, there is the bigger story, which is similar to that of others in the Islamic Republic. Majid Jamali Fashi lost his life as an act in the continuing political theatre, both for the domestic script and for that of Iran's relations with Israel and the US. When Iranian officials needed to establish that they were doing something about the slayings of the country's scientists, he played his part as the confessing suspect. When they needed to show their continuing strength and determination, amid the pressure of sanctions and US and Israeli rhetoric, the kickboxer was sentenced to die. And when the Islamic Republic needed to show that its version of justice would be done, in the face of the "enemy", he was hung.

Imran Khan, an Al Jazeera English report, writes of his conversation in a Tehran cafe with "Amir" on Tuesday:

I asked him if he thought that Fashi was guilty.

"Of course. He confessed. And why would Israel not want to kill our scientists? They want to fight with us, to bomb us. So they make these lies and actions to persuade the world we are the enemy."

And this is what struck me the most. No question of the evidence against the man or how it was obtained. Of all the reporting I have seen on Fashi's death in Iran, it goes back to the same thing - that this was all part of a grand plan by Israel to make war on Iran.

After the execution, journalist Fereshteh Ghazi spoke with the wife of Masoud Alimohammadi, the alleged victim of Jamali Fashi. She said the case is still open, with 30 to 40 people arrested.

Alimohammadi's wife said she had refused to go to the execution. She then explained that she could not have granted the pardon, which according to Iranian law the family of the victim can give to the guilty: "They would have executed him anyway."