https://www.ecfr.eu en Copyright 2020 2020-10-21T11:19:00+00:00 https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_balance_of_values_and_interests_germany_realpolitik_and_russia https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_balance_of_values_and_interests_germany_realpolitik_and_russia Recent events show that Moscow does not take Berlin seriously when it acts alone. Germany must coordinate its actions at the European level and find common responses to Russia’s behaviour.

]]> ECFR Council, Wider Europe, Russia, European Power, European Strategy, German foreign policy leadership, Geoeconomics, 2020-10-15T14:11:00+00:00 Roderich Kiesewetter https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_europe_became_marginalised_in_nagorno_karabakh https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_europe_became_marginalised_in_nagorno_karabakh EU diplomacy could facilitate a conflict settlement process by pressuring Armenia and Azerbaijan to start implementing the Madrid Principles.

]]> Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Nicu Popescu, 2020-10-13T12:09:00+00:00 Nicu Popescu https://www.ecfr.eu/article/a_captive_ally_why_russia_isnt_rushing_to_armenias_aid https://www.ecfr.eu/article/a_captive_ally_why_russia_isnt_rushing_to_armenias_aid Russia appears willing to allow Azerbaijan to recapture some areas around Nagorno-Karabakh, betting on Armenian dependency and Azerbaijani gratitude.

]]> Wider Europe, Nicu Popescu, 2020-10-08T14:19:00+00:00 Nicu Popescu https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_hill_here_a_village_there_nagorno_karabakh_and_the_salami_slic https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_hill_here_a_village_there_nagorno_karabakh_and_the_salami_slic Azerbaijan and Armenia are shifting from two decades of ‘frozen conflict settlement’ to an era of ‘salami-slicing wars’ – small conflicts designed to extract diplomatic concessions or regain territory from the adversary slice by slice.

]]> Wider Europe, Nicu Popescu, 2020-10-02T07:43:00+00:00 Nicu Popescu https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_best_to_sit_and_talk_how_to_solve_the_conflict_in_the_eastern_me https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_best_to_sit_and_talk_how_to_solve_the_conflict_in_the_eastern_me A conflict could be brewing in the eastern Mediterranean. Here’s how to stop it.

]]> Wider Europe, Turkey, The Middle East and North Africa, Eastern Mediterranean, Asli Aydıntaşbaş, 2020-09-24T13:27:00+00:00 Asli Aydıntaşbaş https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_spiders_web_of_poisoning_cases https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_spiders_web_of_poisoning_cases Regardless of whether it ordered the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin has created a system in which the powerful believe they can kill with impunity.

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, Iliyana Kondareva , 2020-09-23T08:36:00+00:00 Iliyana Kondareva https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_serbias_5g_deal_with_washington_the_art_of_muddling_through https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_serbias_5g_deal_with_washington_the_art_of_muddling_through There is no obvious reason why Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic would turn his back on a relationship with China from which he draws a great deal of political capital.

]]> Wider Europe, Western Balkans, Majda Ruge, 2020-09-22T08:43:00+00:00 Majda Ruge, Stefan Vladisavljev https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_meeting_svetlana_tikhanovskaya_how_europeans_should_support_the https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_meeting_svetlana_tikhanovskaya_how_europeans_should_support_the The EU should nurture Belarusian protesters’ experiences with political participation and their demands for democracy.

]]> ECFR Council, Wider Europe, Russia, 2020-09-16T15:48:00+00:00 Lia Quartapelle https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_belarus_and_armenia_how_russian_handles_uprisings https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_belarus_and_armenia_how_russian_handles_uprisings Russia’s goal in its neighbourhood is to regain influence, not to be surrounded by neutral, self-sufficient buffer states.

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, EaP, Ukraine, Gustav Gressel, Nicu Popescu, Andrew Wilson, 2020-09-16T08:57:00+00:00 Gustav Gressel & Nicu Popescu & Andrew Wilson https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_what_montenegros_future_government_means_for_the_western_balkans https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_what_montenegros_future_government_means_for_the_western_balkans Supporters of Western integration for Montenegro may look hopefully at the smallest – and pro-European – member of the new coalition. But wider forces are likely to overwhelm it.

]]> Wider Europe, Western Balkans, Majda Ruge, 2020-09-15T11:18:00+00:00 Sinisa Vukovic, Majda Ruge https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_trumps_kosovo_show_no_big_deal https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_trumps_kosovo_show_no_big_deal The White House’s sloppy agreement does little to advance dialogue, and comes at a high price.

]]> Wider Europe, European Power, Transatlantic relationship, Majda Ruge, 2020-09-10T12:10:00+00:00 Majda Ruge https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_under_the_waves_turkeys_black_sea_gas_discovery_and_relations_wi https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_under_the_waves_turkeys_black_sea_gas_discovery_and_relations_wi Turkey’s discovery of a large gas reserve in the Black Sea could benefit its economy in six or seven years, but it will not ease Turkish-European tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

]]> Wider Europe, Turkey, Asli Aydıntaşbaş, 2020-09-03T09:14:00+00:00 Asli Aydıntaşbaş https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_slow_dismantling_of_the_belarussian_state https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_slow_dismantling_of_the_belarussian_state While this revolutionary movement did not start as a geopolitical endeavour, it will certainly end as one.

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, Gustav Gressel, 2020-09-02T13:26:00+00:00 Gustav Gressel https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_belarus_should_remind_us_to_believe_in_freedoms_power https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_belarus_should_remind_us_to_believe_in_freedoms_power However uncertain the road ahead, these protests show how authoritarianism ultimately subverts itself.

]]> ECFR Council, Wider Europe, EaP, Timothy Garton Ash, 2020-08-24T09:26:00+00:00 Timothy Garton Ash https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_armenian_model_for_belarus https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_armenian_model_for_belarus While many Western observers have seized on Ukraine's 2004-5 and 2014 revolutions to understand the mass protests in Belarus, a much better analogy is Armenia's democratic transition in 2018. 

]]> ECFR Council, Wider Europe, EaP, 2020-08-19T16:24:00+00:00 Carl Bildt https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russias_military_manoeuvres_at_the_belarus_border_a_message_to_t https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russias_military_manoeuvres_at_the_belarus_border_a_message_to_t The Kremlin knows that intervening militarily would lose it the goodwill of the Belarusian people. But it does not rule out a managed transition to a candidate of its choice.

 

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, EaP, Gustav Gressel, 2020-08-18T10:38:00+00:00 Gustav Gressel https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_the_eu_now_needs_a_deliberate_belarus_policy https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_the_eu_now_needs_a_deliberate_belarus_policy A new mass civic movement has emerged in Belarus – the EU should put supporting it at the heart of its new policy towards the country.

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, EaP, Andrew Wilson, 2020-08-11T15:36:00+00:00 Andrew Wilson https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_other_putin_on_europes_doorstep https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_other_putin_on_europes_doorstep By weaponising immigration and launching new foreign adventures, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasingly acting like his Russian counterpart. And though such behaviour speaks to a deteriorating political situation at home, Europeans can no longer assume that Turkey will remain firmly in the Western fold.

]]> Wider Europe, Turkey, Russia, European Power, Mark Leonard, 2020-08-04T07:00:00+00:00 Mark Leonard https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_inevitable_partner_why_europe_needs_to_re_engage_with_africa https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_inevitable_partner_why_europe_needs_to_re_engage_with_africa EU-Africa relations are characterised by a series of failed beginnings. They continue to suffer from a lack of deep and far-reaching political will, despite being the subject of a series of diplomatic initiatives in the past two decades.

]]> Africa, Wider Europe, European Power, EU instruments, Multilateral institutions, Vladimir Shopov, 2020-07-30T09:34:00+00:00 Vladimir Shopov https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_analysts_in_moscow_dismiss_the_uk_parliaments_russia_report https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_analysts_in_moscow_dismiss_the_uk_parliaments_russia_report The July 2020 report by the UK Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee is part of a wider and somewhat depressing phenomenon: Western countries’ analyses of what Russia is doing are often mediocre in the eyes of those in Moscow.

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, Kadri Liik, 2020-07-30T09:32:00+00:00 Kadri Liik https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_schuman_plan_for_the_eastern_mediterranean https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_schuman_plan_for_the_eastern_mediterranean The EU should look to its own history as it aims to secure its own interests and resolve tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.

]]> ECFR Council, Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Turkey, European Power, European Strategy, Cohesion & Governance, National Politics, The Middle East and North Africa, Eastern Mediterranean, 2020-07-23T10:44:00+00:00 Anna Diamantopoulou https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_turkey_and_europe_growing_tensions_and_a_hot_summer_in_the_medit https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_turkey_and_europe_growing_tensions_and_a_hot_summer_in_the_medit Europe needs a grand bargain with Turkey that can create a short- and longer-term conflict-resolution framework covering energy, maritime boundaries, the Cyprus conflict, and Libya.

]]> Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Turkey, European Power, The Middle East and North Africa, North Africa, Libya, Asli Aydıntaşbaş, 2020-07-23T08:38:00+00:00 Asli Aydıntaşbaş https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_country_under_the_influence_russian_interference_in_british_po https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_a_country_under_the_influence_russian_interference_in_british_po The UK’s ostensible new “ethical foreign policy” stands up to little scrutiny – not least as the government’s preferred form of Brexit limits chances it will ever enact such a policy.
 

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, European Power, Cohesion & Governance, National Politics, Britain in Europe, Nick Witney, 2020-07-23T07:57:00+00:00 Nick Witney https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_an_election_in_belarus_how_the_west_could_support_a_marginalised https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_an_election_in_belarus_how_the_west_could_support_a_marginalised In the run-up to a difficult election for President Alexander Lukashenka, the three main opposition candidates have been excluded from the vote and there have been mass arrests. Western countries should try to deter further repression in Belarus without isolating the country.

]]> Human Rights, Europe and the world , Wider Europe, European Power, Cohesion & Governance, National Politics, Elections & Referendums, Andrew Wilson, 2020-07-21T14:09:00+00:00 Andrew Wilson https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russia_showed_turkey_and_china_how_to_bully_eu https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russia_showed_turkey_and_china_how_to_bully_eu The more meekly the EU handles other powers’ aggressive tactics, the more they will be tempted to imitate each other in novel ways to ignore, challenge, and openly attack European interests.

]]> Asia, Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Turkey, Russia, The Middle East and North Africa, Iran, Nicu Popescu, 2020-07-17T12:29:00+00:00 Nicu Popescu https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_the_war_in_libya_is_a_test_for_italy_and_for_a_geopolitical https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_why_the_war_in_libya_is_a_test_for_italy_and_for_a_geopolitical If Italy was the front facing east during the cold war, then today it is vulnerable to the south: the country has been drawn into a geopolitical competition that looms over the Strait of Sicily.

]]> ECFR Council, View from the Capitals, Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Turkey, Russia, European Power, The Middle East and North Africa, North Africa, Libya, 2020-06-30T06:57:00+00:00 Marta Dassù https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_politicised_aid_why_europe_should_sustain_cross_border_humanitar https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_politicised_aid_why_europe_should_sustain_cross_border_humanitar European countries should work to renew the UN Security Council resolution on cross-border humanitarian access to northern Syria, lest the area slides into a deeper humanitarian crisis.

]]> Refugee Crisis, Human Rights, Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Turkey, European Power, EU instruments, The Middle East and North Africa, Syria / Iraq / Lebanon, Syria, Kelly Petillo, René Wildangel, 2020-06-29T07:31:00+00:00 Kelly Petillo & René Wildangel https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_hashim_thaci_should_resign https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_hashim_thaci_should_resign The indictment for war crimes against Kosovo President Hassim Thaci helpfully upends the poorly conceived US initiative to reconcile Serbia and Kosovo. But it fatally delegitimates Kosovo’s current leadership.

]]> ECFR Council, Wider Europe, Western Balkans, Vessela Tcherneva, 2020-06-26T17:45:00+00:00 Carl Bildt, Vessela Tcherneva https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_five_mounting_challenges_for_china_in_the_western_balkans https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_five_mounting_challenges_for_china_in_the_western_balkans China has not embedded itself in the Western Balkans as much as it might have done – and may even be looking back on the 2010s as a wasted decade.

]]> Asia, China Analysis, Europe and the world , Wider Europe, Western Balkans, Vladimir Shopov, 2020-06-17T13:05:00+00:00 Vladimir Shopov https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russias_nuclear_deterrence_principles_what_they_imply_and_what_n https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russias_nuclear_deterrence_principles_what_they_imply_and_what_n Russia’s nuclear policy has long been shrouded in secrecy. But a newly published presidential decree on nuclear deterrence clarifies some issues while still leaving ample room for speculation.

]]> Wider Europe, Russia, European Power, New European Security Initiative, Security and Defence, Transatlantic relationship, Gustav Gressel, 2020-06-12T08:13:00+00:00 Gustav Gressel