Jotman East Asia

Why Obama's offer to Egypt isn't good enough

Jotman — Fri, 20 May 2011 00:54:00 +0000

What did Obama say about Egypt in his Middle East speech? Here's an excerpt from the full text of Obama's speech:

After all, politics alone has not put protesters into the streets. The tipping point for so many people is the more constant concern of putting food on the table and providing for a family. Too many in the region wake up with few expectations other than making it through the day, and perhaps the hope that their luck will change. Throughout the region, many young people have a solid education, but closed economies leave them unable to find a job. Entrepreneurs are brimming with ideas, but corruption leaves them unable to profit from them.

The greatest untapped resource in the Middle East and North Africa is the talent of its people. In the recent protests, we see that talent on display, as people harness technology to move the world. It’s no coincidence that one of the leaders of Tahrir Square was an executive for Google. That energy now needs to be channeled, in country after country, so that economic growth can solidify the accomplishments of the street. Just as democratic revolutions can be triggered by a lack of individual opportunity, successful democratic transitions depend upon an expansion of growth and broad-based prosperity.

This is all true, and Obama has said it well. But the big question is how the outside world can help these economies. How can these countries put millions of unemployed youth to work? What is Obama offering to do for them? And can it work? Obama continued:

Drawing from what we’ve learned around the world, we think it’s important to focus on trade, not just aid; and investment, not just assistance. The goal must be a model in which protectionism gives way to openness; the reigns of commerce pass from the few to the many, and the economy generates jobs for the young. America’s support for democracy will therefore be based on ensuring financial stability; promoting reform; and integrating competitive markets with each other and the global economy – starting with Tunisia and Egypt.

Obama talks about the need for Egypt to end "protectionism," yet does not offer to eliminate US cotton subsidies. Obama does not mention that under Hosni Mubarak, Egypt liberalized its markets substantially (see this post) yet widespread economic misery persists. Obama continued:

First, we have asked the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to present a plan at next week’s G-8 summit for what needs to be done to stabilize and modernize the economies of Tunisia and Egypt. Together, we must help them recover from the disruption of their democratic upheaval, and support the governments that will be elected later this year. And we are urging other countries to help Egypt and Tunisia meet its near-term financial needs.

Second, we do not want a democratic Egypt to be saddled by the debts of its past. So we will relieve a democratic Egypt of up to $1 billion in debt, and work with our Egyptian partners to invest these resources to foster growth and entrepreneurship. We will help Egypt regain access to markets by guaranteeing $1 billion in borrowing that is needed to finance infrastructure and job creation. And we will help newly democratic governments recover assets that were stolen.

Third, we are working with Congress to create Enterprise Funds to invest in Tunisia and Egypt. These will be modeled on funds that supported the transitions in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. OPIC will soon launch a $2 billion facility to support private investment across the region. And we will work with allies to refocus the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development so that it provides the same support for democratic transitions and economic modernization in the Middle East and North Africa as it has in Europe.

Fourth, the United States will launch a comprehensive Trade and Investment Partnership Initiative in the Middle East and North Africa. If you take out oil exports, this region of over 400 million people exports roughly the same amount as Switzerland. So we will work with the EU to facilitate more trade within the region, build on existing agreements to promote integration with U.S. and European markets, and open the door for those countries who adopt high standards of reform and trade liberalization to construct a regional trade arrangement. Just as EU membership served as an incentive for reform in Europe, so should the vision of a modern and prosperous economy create a powerful force for reform in the Middle East and North Africa.

Spoken like a Republican: Obama speaks of "trade liberalization" as if it is the tried and proven panacea for economies of the developing world. Yet how well has that worked out for Iraq so far? Many of the most successful industries in today's economic powerhouses were nurtured on protectionist trade policies. Think South Korea or Japan. Obama continued:

Prosperity also requires tearing down walls that stand in the way of progress – the corruption of elites who steal from their people; the red tape that stops an idea from becoming a business; the patronage that distributes wealth based on tribe or sect. We will help governments meet international obligations, and invest efforts anti-corruption; by working with parliamentarians who are developing reforms, and activists who use technology to hold government accountable.

Egytians need to examine the details before accepting any foreign offers of economic assistance. Are they sincere? Or are they just a ploy to get Egypt to open-up its market to foreign-branded goods and services? What's good for US-based multinationals (Monsanto, Pfizer, GE, etc.) or Apple Computer and its Chinese factory workers is not necessarily what's best for the people of Egypt.

Governments in the Middle East face the same problem that confronts Barack Obama at home: how to create jobs for millions of people -- especially young people. Given that the economic system of the United States, its political leadership, its most vocal ideologues, and even its media have failed to address America's own unemployment crisis, Egyptians should be careful about taking economic advice from Americans.

* * * * *

In post-Mubarak Egypt, protesters are often beaten by thugs.

There's another thing Obama ought to have said but did not. Obama should have promised that the US would hold the leadership of the Egyptian Army accountable for their actions during Egypt's transition to democracy. Obama should have said that attacks against peaceful protesters by thugs working in conjunction with soldiers are reprehensible, and that torturing protesters, virginity-testing them, and subjecting them to military trials is unacceptable. Obama should have made clear that future US military assistance to Egypt's army will contingent upon its adherence to basic principles of human rights and the rule of law.

By June 2010, will Thais sound like Chinese of April 2008?

Jotman — Tue, 18 May 2010 00:13:00 +0000

Does a much talked about "letter" suggest Thailand is headed for where China went in April 2008?

Perhaps.

Nikkei bans links

Jotman — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 00:24:00 +0000

GV reports on bloggers' reaction to Nikkei's decision to "ban links" -- as if that's even possible.

NY Times describes the situation:

Links to Nikkei’s home page require a detailed written application. Among other things, applicants must spell out their reasons for linking to the site.

I wonder what genius came up with that policy?

Anwar al-Awlaki, the muslim American Obama has sentenced to death

Jotman — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 11:32:00 +0000

President Obama has taken it upon himself to order the assassination of Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical Muslim cleric who happens to be an American citizen. When a US president orders the killing -- without trial -- of an American, he crosses a line.

More here.

China executes Japanese man for drug smuggling

Jotman — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 19:39:00 +0000

Nikkei: "China carried out the death penalty imposed on convicted Japanese drug smuggler Mitsunobu Akano on Tuesday, the official Xinhua News agency reported." According to NHK he was carrying 2.5 kg of "stimulants".

It's "China's first execution of a Japanese national since the two nations normalized diplomatic relations 38 years ago" according to UPI.

Mitsunobu Akano is at least the second foreigner China has executed so far this year. Earlier, a UK citizen was put to death.

Four more Japanese are slated to be executed in China. Prior to the execution, Yomiuri Shimbun warned of a backlash among the Japanese public.

On the other hand, the Japan Times notes,

China announced last week it had detained a man for allegedly poisoning frozen dumplings that sickened 10 people in Japan between late 2007 and early 2008.

According to sources close to both sides, Beijing conveyed its decision to Tokyo three days after informing the Japanese government that a suspect had been apprehended in the dumpling-poisoning case. "The timing makes it difficult for Japan to object," one of the sources said Tuesday.

You have to wonder whether the "suspect" or anyone accused of anything in China will receive a fair trial.

Did China cause the Mekong River droubt?

Jotman — Sat, 03 Apr 2010 21:43:00 +0000

When will China realize that a lesson it learned during the 2003 SARS crisis has broad applicability?

Continued...

Is China stealing Thailand's water?

Jotman — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 16:44:00 +0000

It's complicated.

Why are China's captive Siberian Tigers dying?

Jotman — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 04:38:00 +0000

BBC reports that 11 captive Siberian tigers have died in China over the past 3 months:

A local wildlife protection official, Liu Xiaoqiang, is reported to have said that malnutrition was one cause. The tigers were apparently fed cheap chicken bones.

Mr Liu also said that the tigers had been kept in very small cages, restricting their movement and lowering their resistance to disease.

A manager at the zoo, which is currently closed, said the animals simply died of various diseases.

The story gets more disturbing:

The BBC recently found that the Siberia Tiger Park, based in Heilongjiang Province in the northeast of China, is selling a "tiger bone wine" that contains three small tiger bones.

Some way to celebrate Year of the Tiger.

Used Japanese car imports power economy of the Russian Far East

Jotman — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 23:59:00 +0000

Russian Jotman reader Sanjuro writes:

Triggered by the news of proposed higher import tariffs for used foreign-made cars, drivers in Vladivostok, Nakhodka and other Far Eastern cities (followed by other regional centers in Siberia and European part of Russia), convened in large numbers and demanded to drop the proposed tariffs and carried crude slogans suggesting the Russian political elites to use Russian cars instead of their Mercedes-Benzes.

This is the one of the rare instances that I recall (except perhaps the equally potentially dangerous social outrage in 2005-2006 over the failed social security reform) where the people's anger is aimed directly at ex-President Putin. Even as PM he is largely perceived as the sole center of responsibility and, in addition, as PM he is technically responsible for enacting of the proposed tariffs. Crude remarks and outright hostility towards Mr Putin from the Far Eastern drivers and car merchants come at stark constrast with the recently staged TV talk show.

According to the Kommersant, the regional parliament of the Primorsky Kray (one of the main constituencies of the Russian Far East, with its capital in Vladivostok) appealed to the federal government with a request to withdraw the proposal citing "growing social tensions". The Kommersant reports that Nov 22 protests gathered about 200 drivers on their cars and Dec 14, the number grew to nearly 2000 (http://kommersant.ru/doc. aspx?DocsID=1094866). New. Drom.Ru claims about a 1000 drivers in Novosibirsk (http://news.drom.ru/11803. html). The Car Owners Federation website started collecting votes against the proposed new tariffs - 18,200 votes so far (http://www.autofed.ru/ actions/14.12.08.html).

The used car import and transit industry is the sole major job provider in the Russian Far East. In the Primorsky Kray alone approximately 100,000 people (local parliament's figure) are engaged in importing used Japanese cars and delivering them to buyers across Siberia, reaching the Urals and beyond. Russian Car Drivers Movement claims that 60% of the Primorsky Kray are engaged in this industry, but this is likely an exaggeration. In any case almost anyone living and working in Siberia and the Russian Far East would be affected by the new tariffs.

Among drivers in Siberia and the Russian Far East, there is certain affection towards these old Japanese vehicles, deep respect towards the Japan carmaking industry. There's also some sense of camaderie amongst the drivers and people in the tough car transit industry that potentially makes them a formidable political force. These people are not necessarily aggressive, but their business remembers violent times. I have visited Vladivostok in 1998 and 2004, and from I recall, I could also tell there's deeply embedded separatism in the Far East. Usually latent, it becomes apparent in incidents such as this. Vladivostok has been one of the rare politically active cities in Russia with quite turbulent history of new governance.

Both Kommersant and Gazeta.Ru report that unlike in case with the annual march of the dissidents, authorities are apparently taking these protests very seriously. So far the official reaction has been vague, mixed and reserved.

http://www.gazeta.ru/auto/ 2008/12/15_a_2911448.shtml

There some pictures on local Vladivostok websites:

http://news.vl.ru/vlad/2005/ 11/17/akcijaproshla/

http://foto.drom.ru/1043/

http://news.drom.ru/11803.html (This one has videos)

Japanese dead cat toy

Jotman — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:13:00 +0000

I'm not a great fan of cats. But this is truly disgusting.

Obama bowing too low to Japanese emperor?

Jotman — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:10:00 +0000

My thoughts on this matter here.

Team Japan at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver

Jotman — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:18:00 +0000

Japanese athletes march in to the Opening Ceremonies of the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.
日本選手のバンクーバー冬季五輪の開会式に行進する。

Is Gillian Chung pictured in my photo?

Jotman — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:03:00 +0000

A reader looking through some old photos on my blog swears I accidentally captured Gillian Chung Yan-tung, the famous Hong Kong actress and singer. Take a look for yourself.

Chinese American to serve as Obama's Energy Secretary

Jotman — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 22:11:00 +0000

Fallows applauds Obama's decision to bring Steven Chu into his administration:

Identity politics is a second- or third-order aspect of this nomination. Mainly his choice says something about the role of real science in public life, about America's commitment to retain its leadership as a research power, and about the redoubling of scientific/technical efforts to deal with energy and climate problems. But in karmic terms it doesn't hurt that Chu, who was born in St. Louis of Chinese parents, will head the very department that, under then-secretary Bill Richardson, was involved in the Wen Ho Lee imbroglio in the late 1990s. (In brief: Lee, who was born in Taiwan and who worked at Los Alamos, was accused of massive theft of U.S. nuclear secrets on China's behalf. The NY Times loudly trumpeted this story. Eventually nearly all the charges were dropped, and the presiding federal judge apologized to Lee for government excesses.) Again, this is not a reason to have chosen him, but it's worth noticing.

More about Steven Chu here.

Map: Minority population regions of China

Jotman — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 16:12:00 +0000

Counties in China where at least half the population is non-Han Chinese. NYT via Fallows.

China and US global warming politics

Jotman — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 08:15:00 +0000

I recently blogged about a legislative issue in the US that concerns precisely the point where the world's number one policy issue intersects with the world's most important bilateral relationship: Climate change on one hand, and US-China relations on the other.

Should the US should take a carrot or a stick approach to China? Even among those who agree on global warming policy, there are differences of opinion concerning tactics by which various countries -- especially China -- might be brought on board. Case in point: Although journalist James Fallows and economist Paul Krugman both share similar views on a range of issues (both stand in agreement that climate change action is of the utmost importance), they have expressed quite different views on the question of means. That is, the manner by which a global agreement can best be reached.

A few weeks ago James Fallows, based in China, expressed disapproval of a column Krugman wrote in his NT Times after a visit to China. This line gives you an idea of the tone of the Krugman article:

Each time I raised the issue during my visit, I was met with outraged declarations that it was unfair to expect China to limit its use of fossil fuels. . . .

Fallows responded: "I've heard that Chinese response too many times to count. But it's mainly a throat-clearing prelude to talking-turkey discussions about what the country will and can do, and under what circumstances." Fallows says many Chinese he has spoken to are not nearly so intransigent on the issue of climate change as Krugman believes:

While his conclusion -- that China has to be part of global efforts to control carbon emissions -- is obviously correct and important, his premise -- that no one in China admits this -- does not square with my observation over these past three years. . . .

If blunt-instrument outside pressure like this column makes it more likely that Chinese authorities will keep making progress, then as a pure matter of power-politics I say: fine. But my guess and observation is that it is just as likely to get their back up -- and encourage the ever-present victimization mentality that makes it less rather than more likely that Chinese authorities will behave "responsibly" on the international stage.

Concerning global climate change policy, should the US take a leading-by-doing approach, or adopt a more coercive approach to getting countries like China to cooperate?

My perspective.
_____
* ----> Recommended reading: Technology and innovation: Climate change Rx?.

China scholars: Tibet riots rooted in valid complaints

Jotman — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:53:00 +0000

NY Times (via CDT):

A group of prominent Chinese lawyers and legal scholars have released a research report arguing that the Tibetan riots and protests of March 2008 were rooted in legitimate grievances brought about by failed government policies — and not through a plot of the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.

... The research paper was quietly posted last month on Chinese Web sites, and an English translation was released this week by the International Campaign for Tibet, an advocacy group based in Washington.

Bondage-themed ads for English Schools in China

Jotman — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:35:00 +0000

James Fallows investigates.

How to thwart the Great Firewall

Jotman — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:34:00 +0000

A Malaysian blogger lists ten ways to thwart the legions of state Internet censors in China -- the so-called "Great Firewall."

Team China at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver

Jotman — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:13:00 +0000

中国运动员进军冬奥会的在温哥华开幕式。
Chinese athletes march into the Opening Ceremonies of the Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

Comparison: China's high speed rail plans Vs Obama's for America

Jotman — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 09:50:00 +0000

Here's one critical difference between the US and China -- and Obama touched on it in his "State of the Union" speech: Whereas increasingly, the infrastructure of China is sparkling and new, the infrastructure of the United States is crumbling and old.

What has China been up to with respect to high-speed rail? And how does Obama plan to close the "rail gap"?

The answer might astound you.

Google and China-US relations

Jotman — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 21:34:00 +0000

James Fallows, having recently returned from China after a long stay, has blogged a particularly interesting post concerning Google's decision to pull out of China. Fallows points to a string of recent developments that give the appearance that China is entering a particularly antagonistic -- but not threatening -- phase with respect to its relations with the outside world:

But there are also reasons to think that a difficult and unpleasant stage of China-US and China-world relations lies ahead. This is so on the economic front, as warned about here nearly a year ago with later evidence here. It may prove to be so on the environmental front -- that is what the argument over China's role in Copenhagen is about. It is increasingly so on the political-liberties front, as witness Vaclav Havel's denunciation of the recent 11-year prison sentence for the man who is in many ways his Chinese counterpart, Liu Xiaobo. And if a major U.S. company -- indeed, Google has been ranked the #1 brand in the world -- has concluded that, in effect, it must break diplomatic relations with China because its policies are too repressive and intrusive to make peace with, that is a significant judgment.

I should add that Fallows recent posts concerning the Copenhagen negotiations have provided rare glimpses of the Chinese leadership in action. The accounts were weird enough to make me wonder whether China might be experiencing some serious internal conflicts. Of course, no one seems to be talking this way. But as Xiao Qiang asked some journalists gathered in Helsinki, what makes us so sure the experts have China right?

Will consumer demand in China rescue the world economy in 2010?

Jotman — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:45:00 +0000

No says Roubini in a recent interview. "The total consumption of 2.2 billion Chindians is $1.6 trillion—only 1/6th that of the U.S. It's just not enough."

More here.

China's postition at the Bangkok Climate Change Talks

Jotman — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 10:47:00 +0000

From the Guardian:

Yu Qingtai, China's special representative on climate talks, said rich countries should not desert the Kyoto agreement, which all industrialised countries except the US signed up to and was ratified in 2002 after many years of negotiations. It contains no requirement for developing countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions, as both their current and historical emissions are low in most cases.....

"The Kyoto protocol is not negotiable. We want [it] to be strengthened. We don't want to kill Kyoto. We really want a revival, a strengthening of the treaty. That can only be done by Annex I [industrialised] countries having a target of 40% cuts by 2020," said Yu.

More about the impasse here.

How many Muslims live in China?

Jotman — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 01:06:00 +0000

There are more Muslims in China (22 million) than either Malaysia or Syria.

According to a recent Pew report, "There are Muslims in every province of China, but the highest concentrations are in the west, primarily in Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu, with other significant populations in Henan, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hebei and Shandong. Xinjiang is the only Muslim-majority province of China, with Muslims accounting for approximately 53% of the total population."

The cybertarians are coming!

Jotman — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:10:00 +0000

I was hoping we could all just forget about the Anti-CNN group that arose in the wake of the Tibet crisis. But it seems they are still around. Rebecca of Rconversation caught up with them for an interview. She has taken to calling such groups "cyber-tarians."