East's Weather Page

Weekend thoughts...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 19:17:00 +0000

A few quick thoughts on the 12z model data....a lot of this will be shop talk.....keep that in mind. See the bottom for the bottom line.

12z Euro looked oh so close to a bombing phase around 108, but the phase was not terribly strong I think primarily due the orientation of the Great Lakes disturbance.

12z GFS still looks off to me, like the 6z. The entire orientation of the flow pattern at 500mb is different than most other modeling. It might score the coup though...who knows.

12z Canadian is nice for a chunk of NC. Pretty nice phasing, and because of that, a nice pulling sothward of the colder air aloft.

12z UKMET is weaker and farther south.

Here is what to take from this IMO. I see no trend in the modeling. What I see is each time a model is run, you get its latest interpretation of how a very chaotic 500mb pattern will look this weekend. There is no trend north or south....there is just varying positions and strengths of features.

For the upper Southeast to see a nice winter storm, we want some good phasing. Each model has taken turns showing this from time to time. That is needed to pull the colder air necessary for snow southward, and also get the precip rates heavy enough to overcome some marginal low level temps in some places.

Players remain on the field, and I am no more encouraged or discouraged than I was at this point yesterday. We are just going to have continue to get a handle on how each of the features involved unfolds over the next couple of days.

Lots to discuss....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 10:36:00 +0000

Here's today's video.....give it a look.

First of all, our system today is behaving as expected with a weakening system interacting with dry air in our region. Some areas will see some snow flakes or sleet pellets this morning, and over in the mountains and parts of the foothills, it could turn the ground white in some spots. However, this is really a novelty event more than anything else, and this afternoon will just feature some light rain at times.

Tomorrow will be fantastic with sunshine and highs in the lower 60s for many.

Another system then moves through Thursday with rain and a few storms possible across parts of the region.

Weekend system...

I encourage you to watch today's video, docked above. Tons of graphics to go along with this discussion.

Lots of talk about our potential weekend storm system. The quick model rundown...

0z Euro came north a bit the track. At face value, it's a rain producer for most folks outside the mountains and maybe some of the foothills, but could end as some snow elsewhere.

0z Canadian and 0z GFS had a nice track for some snow in parts of the foothills, mountains, and parts of the piedmont.

0z UKMET appears to spread some snow through the upper Southeast as well.

6z GFS has come in much slower and really, quite different aloft with the disturbance as it moves into the Southeast and it really minors it out once again. I would throw it out for the time being.

Couple of things to watch.....the quicker the system moves in, the stronger it could be due to it keeping more spacing between it and the next trough diving in out west.

That trough out west, combined with a low over southeast Canada, will keep the low from heading too far north. In fact, I think the 0z European model today is about as far north as this system can make it.

Way too soon for any specifics, but the players remain on the field for somebody in the region to see some wintry precip. I just can't tell you who yet.

Midday thoughts for this weekend....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 19:20:00 +0000

The 12z GFS crushed our potential system. It keeps the southern energy too strong to pop a strong system for the Southeast. See below.

The 12z European model, on the other hand, shows a very nice track for snow in the upper Southeast...including western NC. The 12z European is a little stronger with the phasing than was the 0z, so even though the track of the actual surface low is a touch farther north, the result is still a nice solution for possible western Carolinas snow.

Tons could go wrong, so please, snow fans, don't get excited at this point. The pieces of energy both responsible for the actual system, and responsible for the track the system takes, are still out to sea in the Pacific.

One little thing....I know some will rightly be worried about a northwest trend. Assuming the upper air low near the Canadian maritimes is modeled correctly, this would limit how far north the system can go. But again, that's a big assumption right now.

Active pattern this week...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 10:29:00 +0000

Whew. What a cold weekend! And it was indeed a decent snow event for the mountains.

As we head into the new work week, there is a lot to talk about. See the video for the graphics to go along with this discussion. Three system to discuss....let's take them one at a time....

System 1:

This one is bringing some snow as far south today as the Tennessee Valley and northeast Texas. As the precip moves into our region, a combination of the upper level disturbance weakening and the very dry air in place will chew up a lot of the precip. However, there could be enough snow flakes or sleet pellets to whiten the ground in some spots of northeast Georgia, the western tip of SC, the western mountains of NC, and southeastern TN.

For the foothills, piedmont, and upstate, there is the chance that a few snow flakes and/ or sleet pellets will work their way through tomorrow morning. However, I just don't think there will be enough precip to amount to anything significant. Some lingering areas of light rain or rain showers will then be possible later tomorrow.

System 2:

This one will be a rain-producer, and it will swing through mainly Thursday.

System 3:

Interesting. With the 0z runs, the Canadian and European model were quite similar with having a surface low near JAX Saturday evening. The 0z GFS was suppressed well south.

However, the 6z GFS has come around and is not advertising a low pressure track very similar to the 0z Canadian and European.

This one will be interesting to watch. I don't like that there isn't really any overly cold air around, but there is enough there that if this takes just the right track, it could produce some wintry precip somewhere in the region.

However, if the upper level energy dampens out (like is happening with system 1), we wind up with little precip. (This is less likely with system 3 due to there not being another disturbance digging behind it though.) Also, if the system amps up too much, warm air floods into much of the region bringing only rain.

Now is not the time for any excitement at all. Threading of the needle will have to take place. But for snow fans, at least there is something there in the 5-6 day range.

Big-time shot of arctic air this weekend...some good mountain snows too....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:29:00 +0000

Lots to talk about today, and I encourage you to watch today's edition of the video for the graphics accompanying this discussion.

Clouds increasing today as our next system approaches. Piedmont highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s tonight.

The incoming system will likely bring some sprinkles and a few showers to the foothills and the piedmont tonight, but nothing terribly significant.

However, this system will produce a good amount of snow in many mountain spots across the region, especially tomorrow into tomorrow night in the favored northwest-facing areas. I think many E TN and NC mountain spots could see 2-4" (again, in the favored upslope areas), and when you get up into WV, some spots could exceed 6-8".

Arctic shot...

For the areas east of the mountains, the big weather story this weekend is a big-time shot of cold air. In a winter that hasn't featured much cold air, this is going to get your attention. Many spots in the foothills and piedmont will see their high temps occur before lunchtime tomorrow with falling PM temps.

Winds will be quite significant tomorrow with gusts over 40mph possible at times.....even higher in the mountains.

Piedmont temps by Sunday morning will likely be in the upper teens and lower 20s, and highs Sunday still struggle to (and in some cases, fail to) make it to 40 degrees. Wind chill values Sunday morning will be in the single digits in spots. Lows again Monday morning head into the upper teens and lower 20s.

Next week...

A couple of systems next week. The 0z modeling backed off on the amount of precip in NC with the Tuesday system due to more energy digging into the western US at the same time. Same deal for this system as I mentioned yesterday....if we can get enough precip in here early enough Tuesday morning, a period of snow is possible, but lots if 'ifs' involved there. We might wind up with very little precip at all.

Another system will likely bring some rain late next work week.

Cool sunshine today....active pattern ahead....cold blast this weekend...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 10:28:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video....a good bit to discuss this morning.

Sunshine returns today with only a few high cirrus clouds at times. Highs will top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most in the region.

Our next disturbance will approach the region tomorrow. Out ahead of the system, clouds will be in the increase with highs mainly in the 50s. The Piedmont will then have a brief shower chance tomorrow night into Sunday morning. For a good portion of Tennessee and Kentucky on up into the NC mountains and the Virginias, this will likely be another quick hit of some snow. I can't rule out the chance that a few flakes make it down into the foothills or piedmont Saturday morning, but I wouldn't count on it.

The bigger story this weekend is the cold air. Saturday will be blustery with temps in the 40s and a stiff northwest wind. Lows Sunday and Monday morning will be close to 20 in many piedmont spots, and some locales will likely dip into the teens.

Highs Sunday will struggle to make it to near the 40 degree mark despite full sunshine.

Ski conditions in the mountains this weekend will be very nice, but be aware, it's going to be quite cold. So bundle up before you hit the slopes.

Next week...

Our next disturbance should roll in by Tuesday morning. If the precip arrives early enough Tuesday morning, a brief shot of some snow is possible for parts of the region before temperatures warm. Nothing to get excited about yet though.

Another system will likely then arrive and bring rain by Thursday.

See the video for much more on all of this.

Moisture-starved system today...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 10:28:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video. Give it a look....

A storm system is moving through our region today, and we will have a good deal of clouds as that occurs. A very brief shower can't be ruled out east of the mountains today, but that chance is limited.

Up in the mountains, look for some snow showers today, and the favored NW-facing spots could see some relatively minor accumulations. Up in the mountains of WV, western MD, and southwest PA, several inches are possible.

Tomorrow will be sunny and fairly cool with piedmont and foothill highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Highs should be in the 50s Friday.

Weekend...

A pretty significant (although transient) shot of cold air will arrive this weekend. Saturday will likely be pretty blustery with cold air advection underway and highs in the 40s. Highs Sunday will likely have a tough time making it into the lower 40s in the foothills and piedmont, and some spots won't make it there. Lows by Sunday and Monday morning look to bottom out in the lower 20s, with some teens possible in the normally colder spots.

In terms of precip, the only chance this weekend would be Saturday morning as the upper level energy is moving through. See the video for more on this. The 0z Canadian was oh so close to popping a more significant storm system, but as it is now, most of the modeling is only indicating some clouds and a few sprinkles or flurries Saturday early morning.

Next week...

We could have a couple of systems next week. Track is uncertain, but at the moment, the Carolinas would appear to likely be on the warmer side of the systems. See the video for more.

Sunshine returns today!

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:26:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video....

After a rather gloomy period the past few days, sunshine will be back with us today across the region, and along with the sun will come milder temps. Highs today should head toward the upper 50s for most.

Upcoming pattern....

A series of disturbances will head our way in coming days, and whether or not each disturbance produces precip around here will be determined by how much they can amplify as they approach the region. This will be very difficult to forecast more than a couple of days in advance.

The first disturbance moves through tomorrow, and it will likely produce a brief shot of snow up in the mountains and then especially as you head up into the Virginias. East of the mountains in North Carolina, I will mention a brief shower chance, but nothing really significant.

The next disturbance will swing through Saturday. Yesterday, the Canadian model amplified the disturbance enough to generate a significant Gulf low that spread lots of precip up into the region, including a nice snow for the mountains, foothills, and even some of the piedmont Saturday morning.

However, most modeling, including the latest Canadian model, are far less consolidated with the disturbance, and therefore, only generate some very light precip, if any at all, Friday night into Saturday morning.

The next disturbance then moves in sometime later Monday into early Tuesday. We will see how strong that one looks as it nears.

Fairly cool today....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:24:00 +0000

Here's today's edition of the video....

Highs today will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most around the region under a partly sunny sky. As developing area of low pressure near south Florida will track off of the Carolina coast tonight and will likely spread some light rain into the coastal plain as it does so. However, I expect most of the piedmont to remain dry.

Our next system will then swing through Wednesday with a fairly limited chance of a brief shower.

Weekend potential...

For many, many runs over the past week, the GFS had been indicating the potential for a Gulf low to form and lift up off the Carolina coast this weekend. This occurred as a piece of upper level energy moving from Mexico into the Gulf at least partially phased with a piece of northern branch energy diving south into it.

The European model has never really been too excited about this, but some other foreign modeling has at times.

As of the 0z run today, the GFS is slower with the southern branch energy, and therefore, it entirely misses the phase. This actually put the 0z Euro and GFS in pretty good agreement for the weekend.....some pretty chilly air moving in, but primarily dry outside of a few flurries on the Euro.

The 6z run of the GFS is much the same.....slow with the southern branch energy and missing a phase opportunity.

Now, the players are on the field for a storm system over the eastern US this weekend, but it would take the pieces of upper level energy moving at a different pace than is being indicated by the latest modeling. It is unlikely, but not impossible. Let's see what the next couple of days hold as the models get a better handling of the timing of these disturbances.

Wet weekend weather....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:26:00 +0000

What a snowstorm out in the Rockies spilling into the Plains! Denver will wind up with 12-18" before the snow ends. This is a storm system you would more typically see in March or April as opposed to early February, complete with those heavy snows on the northwest side of the low and severe weather in the warm sector.

For our region, after a dry day today (with cooler high temps than yesterday), we will see the rain develop in tomorrow. The rain could arrive as early as tomorrow morning for the mountains, foothills, and I-85 corridor with the rain marching eastward through the day. Highs tomorrow will be chilly....struggling to make it into the lower 50s in spots where the rain arrives early.

I will maintain some shower chances into Sunday as a front drops south through the area.

It is interesting to note that the 0z Canadian model today phased two pieces of upper level energy and developed snow into the region Sunday night into Monday morning. But as of the 0z model cycle, it is on its own with that solution, and it appears unlikely. Interesting to note nonetheless.

The GFS is still hanging on to the Gulf of Mexico low pressure idea it has had for days and days. It bring the low from the Gulf to off of the Carolina coast late next work week. The Euro is far more suppressed with the system, as is the Canadian.

Even on the GFS solution, the cold air retreats prior to the precip arriving, so at this point, I don't think there is anything to get excited about for snow fans.

Longer range...

The European model collapses the western North American ridge later in the run, as does the GFS to some extent. The GFS then redevelops the ridge mid-month.

On the Atlantic side, there are some hints of ridging up into Greenland toward mid-month on both the operational GFS and Euro, but nothing concrete yet. This has been the missing ingredient for winter weather fans in the eastern US this winter. I am not sold on its development yet though.

Sunshine returns today...Wet, cool weekend weather...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 10:28:00 +0000

Please see today's edition of the video. I spend a lot of time in there talking about the overall pattern, what has been 'wrong' with a normally overall fairly good set-up, and whether or not that might change later this month.

Sunshine will build into the region today with highs in the upper 60s and even lower 70s again in spots. Lows will return to the mid and upper 30s tonight.

Tomorrow will be nice, albeit a touch cooler with lots of upper 50s for highs.

Weekend...

No real changes to my thoughts for the weekend. Rain will likely arrive by Saturday afternoon, and then we will likely have rain at times Sunday and Monday. Temps will be on the cool side, especially Sunday and Monday as high pressure wedges in from the north.

Next week and beyond....

Tuesday and Wednesday look sunny and relatively cool. The GFS remains adamant that a Gulf of Mexico low pressure will form and track off the Carolina coast later next week. There is not much agreement with the GFS on the European or Canadian model.

Let's just say for argument's sake that the GFS is right. That low pressure (on the 0z run at least) takes a climatologically perfect track for snow in portions of the Southeast US. However, I just don't get the feeling that it will produce winter weather (if the system actually exists at all). The cold air (and it's really cold up around the Great Lakes at that time) just looks to stay a little too far north. I wouldn't rule out winter weather somewhere around here with it, I just think it's unlikely at this point.

Overall pattern....

Western North America ridge? Check. Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation? Check. Why no sustained eastern US cold? In short, the NAO remaining positive thus far. The Pacific flow is raging, and without any Atlantic blocking (-NAO), the cold shots are transient at best.

Will this change? See the video for much, much more on the longer range.

Shower chances arriving...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 10:24:00 +0000

Take a look at today's edition of the video....

We will have some showers spread into the region as we head into this afternoon and tonight as a slow-moving cold front crawls into the region. Rain amounts do not look terribly impressive with this system.....the upper end is probably around 0.5," and that's probably generous for most.

Some sun will return by tomorrow afternoon, and then Friday is quiet and slightly cooler before our weekend system begins to arrive.

It still looks cooler this weekend, but the cold air damming does not look as pronounced as it did earlier in the week. So, probably 50s for a lot of us this weekend. Rain will arrive later Saturday and continue into portions of Sunday.

The GFS dries us out for Monday, while the European model is slower with the entire system overall, so some rain could definitely extend into portions of Monday.

Next week....

I don't have a lot of confidence in how the second half of next week will unfold. There looks to be the chance of a Gulf of Mexico low pressure or two during this time frame, but I just don't know yet whether they will get suppressed to our south or whether or not they impact the region. If they do spread precip in, it could very well be too warm for most to see anything but rain. Just don't know yet.

As I discussed in the video today, since the GFS could very well be wrong in its handling of the features Sunday-Monday, it doesn't give me a lot of confidence that it is right later next week.

Longer term, the European model breaks down the western North American ridging mid-month, while the GFS and its ensembles on the 0z run today generally keep the ridge in place.

Fantastic Tuesday weather....long-range thoughts...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 10:27:00 +0000

I spend a lot of time in today's video looking at the longer range....give it a look.

Beautiful weather is on tap for our Tuesday as we will have lots of sun and highs well into the 60s.

Our next system is still on schedule to bring us some shower chances tomorrow night into Thursday morning. At this point, I am not impressed with the rain amounts coming from this system.

Weekend...

It does appear that a cold air damming episode will transpire this weekend across the region. Chilly high pressure looks to build from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast and then wedge down the eastern side of the mountains. However, at this point, it does not look like the air will be cold enough for anything wintry in the Carolinas.

In the CAD regions though, assuming the rain settles in Saturday into Sunday morning or so, temps will have a hard time climbing through the 40s.

Pattern change...

The pattern is definitely changing across North America. However, what does it mean for our region? Difficult to say.

Let me say that I see nothing 'warm' about the upcoming pattern, but I am just not entirely sure how 'cold' it will be.

A big ridge is going up near the west coast, and I expect it to stay there in some fashion right toward mid-month. However, the exact location of that ridge will go a long way toward determining how much cold air makes into down into our area.

As for winter weather, without a doubt February will provide the best chances we have had all winter. But that doesn't really say much considering the pattern this winter.

I need to see exactly how far east the ridge will try to develop into North America (as well as whether or not we will have some blocking form near Greenland) before I can get really bullish on the upcoming pattern.

Please see the video...lots of graphics on model data on this.

Nice weather for a few days....pattern change ahead...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 10:11:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video. Lots of info in there....give it a look.

The weather over the next few days will be fantastic with highs in the 50s today, then 60s tomorrow and Wednesday. In fact, some spots could hit 70 Wednesday afternoon.

A storm system will bring at least some shower chance around Thursday, and then the specifics of the forecast thereafter get pretty murky.

Weekend...

Some modeling at times over the last several days had indicated a powerful cold air damming episode unfolding this weekend with the potential for ice and snow in parts of the region. This occurred as a potent (1036mb-1040mb) high pressure built into the Northeast as an area of low pressure moved out way from the Lower Mississippi Valley.

As of the morning model runs today, while there is still some evidence of CAD, it is not as pronounced as it was yesterday, and therefore, the models are advertising a mainly rain event at the moment.

At this point, I think the best we can do is just say stay tuned. If we do get a strong high pressure to build into the Northeast, some wintry weather would be possible in some spots this weekend. Weak or no high pressure = chilly rains.

Long-range....

The pattern as we head deeper into February looks to feature major west coast ridging and troughing in the eastern US. I like the looks of the longer range for decent odds of getting a winter weather threat or two into the region, but as you know, things can change.

Nice weekend ahead....February thoughts...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 10:05:00 +0000

Here's today's video. In it, I look at our weekend weather, our next system next week, and some thoughts on a potential February pattern change.

A cold front is zipping east through the region this morning, and that front will rather quickly sweep out any remaining showers. Mild, breezy conditions will unfold today with highs in the 60s for most.

A nice weekend is on tap with highs tomorrow in the upper 50s and lower 60s with lots of sun and then low to maybe mid 50s Sunday with sunshine.

Monday will be the chilliest of the upcoming days with highs shy of 50 in many spots despite a sunny sky.

Next week...

Timing questions remain, but at the moment, the models favor Thursday as the most likely time-frame for our next rain-maker to move through.

February...

Still nothing I am ready to bet the farm on, but I do see some signs on the longer-range modeling of a change in the overall pattern in North America as we progress into February. See the video for the graphics demonstrating this.

With the 0z runs today, both the GFS and the European model show signs of developing a tall PNA ridge....in other words, a big ridge up the west coast all of the way into Alaska. This would be a significant change from what has occurred the majority of winter thus far.

Now, various models have shown something like this at times this winter, only for it not to verify. But, to my memory, this is the first time I have seen such good agreement on this general idea between both the European and the GFS model, so the idea might have some credence.

Like I said, I am not all in yet. However, if that idea is correct, it would definitely favor a colder pattern in the eastern and even central US.

Next system approaching...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:21:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video....

Our next storm system is approaching the region today. We will have a good amount of clouds ahead of the system, and a few showers are possible this afternoon.

However, most of the shower activity with this system will occur tonight in the Carolinas. There has been a marked decrease in the rain amounts on most modeling, so it looks like our rain totals could wind up below 0.50" in many spots, and maybe below 0.25" for many.

Severe weather is a concern today across a good chunk of Mississippi, Alabama, southeast Louisiana, the western Florida Panhandle, and into western Georgia by this evening. However, this is not the same type animal compared to the system late Sunday into Monday morning, so I do not expect nearly the level of severe weather that occurred with that system.

The showers should exit our region early in the day tomorrow, and then we will be set up for a dry weekend with temperatures a bit cooler. Overall, the weather this weekend will cooperate nicely for any outdoor plans you have, unlike last weekend.

Nothing really exciting brewing in the longer range, and I am still on the fence as to how the February pattern will unfold.

Quiet and fairly mild today....next system already taking shape...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 10:26:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video....in it, I look at our next system, the weekend forecast, and a look into next week.....

An area of low pressure over Texas is really cranking the rain this morning from Texas into Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Flash flooding was a problem overnight in a number of spots in Texas.

For the Carolinas, we will have an increase in the clouds this afternoon as that low pressure crawls in our direction. Highs today will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s for most.

Tomorrow, look for a mainly overcast sky as the low pressure nears. By tomorrow afternoon, some showers are possible, but the lion's share of the rain in our region will occur tomorrow night into Friday.

Severe weather will be a potential problem today in Texas and Louisiana with the threat shifting tomorrow into southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama. Our region could wind up with a few thunderstorms by Friday morning, but the severe weather prospects are low.

There is the chance of a secondary low developing as the system pulls through Friday. If that occurs, the rain could stick around for much of Friday as opposed to moving out earlier in the day. This would also up the rain totals around the region.

Interesting to note the Canadian model generates a little snow across portions of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, and some other modeling has tried to do that at times as well. I think it's unlikely at this point (outside of the mountains), and I have not included it in my forecast.

Take a look at the video for some thoughts on next week.

Alabama Tornado Radar images....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 13:47:00 +0000

Here are some images from the tornadoes that ripped through Alabama early Monday morning.

The tornadic supercell that impacted Jefferson county's rotational signature really tightened up as it crossed over from Tuscaloosa to western Jefferson county.

From there, the signature, while still there, was not quite as intense once it moved past roughly the Short Creek area in Jefferson County.

After that point, the signature began to tighten again as it was near the Fultondale area, a little north of downtown Birmingham.

The tornadic signature was then very intense as it moved into the Center Point area over close to Chalkville and into Clay and northern sections of Trussville.

A little while later, a separate tornadic storm spawned a tornado that produced this signature near Maplesville.

From there, this storm produced a violent tornadic signature as it neared Thorsby, Lomax,and Clanton. The signature quickly weakened thereafter.

Milder, brighter conditions by this afternoon...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 10:26:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video. In it, I talk about some nice weather the next couple of days, our next system, what the weekend holds, and some long-range ideas.

The persistent wedge that has been in the foothills and the piedmont the last few days will finally erode today and give way to a lot of afternoon sunshine across the region. Along with the sun will some milder temps.....a lot of lower 60s likely for highs.

Our next system is already beginning to move from the Desert Southwest to the Texas Gulf Coast region, and that system will spread rain back into our region by later Thursday. The period of heaviest rain for the Carolinas looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning, and a few thunderstorms could possibly be involved.

At this point, I think the severe weather threat is quite low in the Carolinas, but there could be some severe weather with this one in Texas today and tonight, southeast Texas and Louisiana tomorrow and tomorrow night, and Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana Thursday.

The weekend ahead looks cool and fairly quiet, although another system dropping through stands a decent chance of bringing a quick shot of mountain snow Saturday night or so.

Long range....

I talk about this a good bit in the video. At this point, I see no signs of a truly blockbuster pattern for the Southeast US if you are looking for Winter weather. However, I do think that as we head into February, the pattern will at times favor some west coast ridging and eastern US troughing. But even that is not set in stone. Still working on these ideas....

Damp, chilly day again...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 10:16:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video.

We had a pronounced cold air damming scenario across our area yesterday, and looks to continue today. Temps were in the 30s for much of our region yesterday, and it will be a slow climb trying to make it into the 40s today.

A big severe weather outbreak occurred from late yesterday into this morning across Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama. However, due to the cool, stable nature of our airmass here, we will not have any severe weather problems. We will have some showers and drizzle at times today and this evening.

A much brighter, milder day is on tap tomorrow with highs in the low and mid 60s.

Our next system will roll in later Thursday into Friday morning. This one looks like another generous rain-producer.

Next system approaching...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 10:25:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video.

Clouds will be on the increase today as our next system approaches. Some mainly light rain will spread into the region from southwest to northeast later this afternoon and evening, then I expect rain at times tonight and tomorrow.

Sunday will feature a pronounced cold air damming scenario, and it looks quite chilly and damp. Temps in the favored CAD areas will likely struggle to make it to 40 or so under an overcast sky with drizzle and light rain at times.

Active pattern...

Another system will swing through Monday with another one likely late next work week. There is a lot of disagreement on the system later next week with the modeling, with anything from a severe weather setup to cool rains being indicated. See the video for more on this.

Long-range....

I continue to see some signs of a change to a more favorable pattern for Winter weather lovers as we head into February. I am still not ready to commit to anything though. Hopefully I can make more firm pattern forecast ideas as we get into next week.

Quiet today....unsettled pattern ahead...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 10:26:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video....give it a look.

Cold start out there with many lows in the 20s in the piedmont and foothills....

Highs today will head into the upper 40s and lower 50s under a partly sunny sky across the region. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s.

Our next precipitation-producing storm system will approach late tomorrow through Saturday. A little light rain is possible late tomorrow afternoon, but most of the showers with that next system will occur tomorrow night through Saturday.

Behind that system, I have gone all-in on a cold air damming scenario for Sunday. If that's correct, look for clouds, drizzle at times, and highs struggling to make it into the low and mid 40s in the normal CAD areas.

Active pattern continues next week....

Another system will move through Monday with some showers and milder temps.

We get a brief break with mainly dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday before our next system moves in around Thursday.

Long range...

I am still not ready to commit to anything, but I continue to evaluate the possibility of a pattern chance as we head into early February.

Much colder today...

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 10:27:00 +0000

Here's today's edition of the video....give it a look.

How about the thunderstorms yesterday evening? Many spots in the southern foothills, mountains, piedmont, and upstate saw some lightning and heard some thunder last evening. Then we had some showers through much of the night.

Now, a cold front has swept all of the shower activity out of the region, and today is a much colder day compared to the 60s we had yesterday. Daytime temps will run in the 40s today.

Lows tonight will drop well down into the 20s.

Our next significant system will arrive Friday night and Saturday. While temps will be chilly when the precip initially arrives, I expect this to be a liquid event.

Next week looks pretty active with one system around Monday then another system later in the work week. See the video for more on this.

I do see some signs of some type of pattern chance as we get near early February, but I am not ready to commit to anything just yet.

Milder and breezy today ahead of front...colder tomorrow....

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 10:26:00 +0000

Here is today's edition of the video...

Highs will warm up a good bit today compared to yesterday with many piedmont spots making it to 60 or warmer today. Southwest winds will be breezy at times, and some showers will be possible today and tonight ahead of an incoming cold front.

Behind the front, we chill down again by tomorrow with 40s for highs and a return to the 20s for lows for Thursday morning.

Our next system will spread some rain in by Friday night and Saturday, and at this point, it does look like rain and nothing wintry for most in the region.

See the video for some longer-range thoughts....

Cool, quiet holiday weather..

noreply@blogger.com (Matthew East) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 13:03:00 +0000

Some mid and high level clouds continue streaming into the region today with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Since there are radar returns nearby, I guess I will have to word in a chance of a sprinkle or two despite the dry airmass in place.

A cold front will move through tomorrow night. Ahead of it, we get a milder, breezy day tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A few showers will accompany the front, but this will NOT be a soaker like many of our systems have been this cold season.

Colder air will again flow in behind the front with some 40s for highs Wednesday and Thursday and lows in the 20s.

Another system will move in Saturday.....we will see what the temps look like as the precip develops in Friday night and Saturday morning, but for the time being, I will keep the precip as liquid.

I will be back into the regular routine tomorrow with the normal video and discussion during the 5am hour.