Economic

Will The Economy Crash In 2019?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 17:39:00 +0000

Don’t expect the economy to crash in 2019, but be prepared for a possible recession.

Plenty of people are asking about the chance of a crash, which I interpret as a pretty severe recession, like 2009-10. The primary trigger of a full-blown crash would be a financial crisis, when many companies, consumers and other entities have borrowed short to fund long-term assets which start looking dodgy. I don’t think that’s in the cards.
Household finances are improving. Over the last four quarters, their real estate equity is up 10.0%, financial assets up 8.0%, debt up only 3.4%, for a gain in net worth of 8.2%, based on Federal Reserve data.
On the corporate side, cash holdings at non-financial corporations are high relative to the overall economy.
America’s banks hold more capital relative to assets than before the last recession. They have also undergone stress tests to determine how they would fare in a recession. Even though the exercise is imperfect, it goes a long way toward helping a bank survive.

The stock market has risen for the last three years, sparking some worries. Most of the time, stock prices are a response to changes in the economy, though occasionally stock prices can influence the overall economy. The market is not so overblown now that it will drag an other-wise healthy economy into a crash, though it would certainly fall if some other cause triggered a recession.
As for housing, but we are not at all overbuilding relative to underlying needs driven by population growth and obsolescence of older properties. A recession could push prices down in the regions that are hardest hit, but a housing collapse will not be an independent cause of recession.

original source:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2018/10/14/will-the-economy-crash-in-2019/#38e887ce7606https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2018/10/14/will-the-economy-crash-in-2019/#38e887ce7606

Top-10 Economic Predictions for 2016

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 24 Oct 2016 12:16:00 +0000

Since 2012, world growth has been range-bound between 2.5% and 2.7%. During that time, the growth in the advanced economies has accelerated gradually, while economic activity in emerging markets has decelerated dramatically. IHS expects a slightly better overall performance for the world economy in 2016, with an expected growth rate of around 2.9%. Solid growth in the United States and a slight pickup in the pace of Eurozone and Japanese economic activity, along with an expected easing of recessionary pressures in Brazil and Russia, are among the reasons for this moderately upbeat assessment. In the same vein, low oil prices and more monetary stimulus—in particular, from the European Central Bank (ECB), the People’s Bank of China, and (possibly) the Bank of Japan—will not only support growth, but could also provide the basis for some upside surprises. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of downside risks, including high public- and private-sector debt levels, corporate risk aversion, further weakness in China and other emerging markets, and daunting geopolitical risks. This means that the probability of the global economy being stuck in low gear for another year is still uncomfortably high.

1. US growth will remain solid.
2. Europe will keep growing at a modest pace.
3. The Japanese economy will continue to limp along.
4. China’s economic activity will decelerate even more.
5. Some emerging markets will remain in recession, while growth elsewhere will disappoint.
6. Commodity prices will reach a trough.
7. Any rise in inflation will be modest.
8. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will raise interest rates a little, while other central banks will either be on hold or ease more.
9. The US dollar will rise further.
10. The risks buffeting the global economy will likely not derail it. As highlighted above, there is no shortage of risks facing the global economy.

original sources

How to Survive a Recession

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 07 Oct 2016 11:01:00 +0000

The economy always has and always will have its ups and downs. It's easy to coast through the good times, but how do you come out of the tough times unscathed? By preparing adequately, cutting costs, and making sure you still have some income coming in, you can emerge out of a recession just as strong as you were before it.

1
Create an emergency fund. If you don't already have you an adequate emergency fund set aside, specify a goal for how much money you want to add to it every month. Your fund should be kept in a savings account with your bank.
- While normally, it's recommended that a two-income couple keep three months' worth of expenses in an emergency fund, during a downturn the recommended amount is six months' worth instead, especially if you're in an industry that gets hit hard by a recession (construction, financial services, food) and if you're a one-income family.
- Dual-income families may be safe with three or four months' worth.
- If you're self-employed, you should set aside up to a year's worth of expenses.
2
Pay off debt. You should always work to be debt free, but when a recession is coming it's even more important to do so. Focus first on paying off your debt with the highest interest rate, which is usually your credit card debt. From here, pay off debts with lower interests rates as you can, working to lower your debt as much as possible. Reducing your debts will lower your monthly expenses and give you a better chance of surviving a recession if you lose your job or need to cut down on spending.
- Money saved from not having to pay debt repayments can then be saved for your emergency fund or otherwise saved. Saved money can be invested in securities when their prices drop during a recession.
3
Create additional income streams. In a recession, there's always the chance that you might lose your job. Your primary focuses should be to keep your current job and be ready to enter the market again for a new one if you lose it (keep an updated resume, investigate job opportunities, etc.). However, you can also increase your financial security by creating separate income streams. These can be a second job, an online business, or any form of passive income.
- Even if you can only make an additional $500 or $1,000 per month, this extra income can help you get through tough time if your primary source of income dries up.
4
Diversify your investments. During a recession, stock prices will usually fall dramatically, which means your investment accounts could be hit hard. While many companies, and their stock prices, will recover out of the recession, some will enter default and cause you to lose money. You can reduce the risk of this happening by spreading out your investments. Think about buying bonds, investing in securities from other countries, or investing in precious metals. These investments, particularly the last two, may move independently of the market and can protect your assets in a recession.
- You can also look outside the market to invest in real estate, like land or apartments, that will usually appreciate in value over time, sometimes even through recessions.
CREdit TO here

Wage growth picks up as UK unemployment falls

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 17 Dec 2014 17:46:00 +0000

Wage growth in the UK is picking up, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate.

In the August-to-October period, average earnings excluding bonuses were up 1.6% from a year earlier. Including bonuses, earnings rose by 1.4%.
It is the first time for six years that both measures of earnings growth have been above the inflation rate.
Meanwhile, the number of people unemployed in the quarter fell by 63,000 to 1.96 million.
The fall was the slowest quarterly fall for a year, leading some analysts to speculate that the rate of improvement may have peaked.
The jobless rate was 6%, matching its lowest level in six years.
The ONS figures also showed that there were 30.80 million people in work in the three-month period, 115,000 more than for the May-to-July period, driven by more people in full-time work.
The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in November fell by 26,900 to 900,100.

'Decent improvement' For the month of October alone, pay including bonuses, increased by 1.8%. That compares to an inflation rate of 1.3% in the same month.
November's inflation figures were released on Tuesday and showed it falling further - to a 12-year-low of 1%.
Bank of England policymakers expect that trend to continue.
Earlier on BBC Radio 5 live, the Bank of England's deputy governor, Jon Cunliffe, said UK inflation in the coming months was "going to be low".
Analysts were encouraged by the earnings growth.
"Earnings growth is finally starting to open a clear positive gap over inflation, which is serious good news for consumers," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
"This bodes well for consumer spending in 2015, although it needs to be borne in mind that consumers have faced a prolonged squeeze on their purchasing power.
"Meanwhile, the labour market is still seeing decent improvement, although the underlying rate of improvement is showing signs of moderation," he added.
However, TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady said the figures showed "some long overdue improvements, but at this rate it will take over a decade to recover the real value of people's earnings".

Analysis: Robert Peston, BBC economics editor
It has been a journey of a good six years, give or take the odd blip, but weekly earnings do now seem to be pulling ahead of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
This is especially true of the private sector, which accounts for 82% of jobs (and rising) - where average weekly earnings rose 2.2% in October, compared with inflation of 1.3% in that month and 1% in November.
The fastest wage growth was 3% in finance and business services - don't curse please, it's unbecoming - and 2.7% in construction.
The shrinking public sector saw a less-than-inflation 0.5% rise.

Russian economic crisis: as it happened 16 December 2014A cocktail of falling oil prices and ongoing uncertainty over Ukraine has resulted in a near collapse in the value of the rouble

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Dec 2014 22:09:00 +0000

A cocktail of falling oil prices and ongoing uncertainty over Ukraine has resulted in a near collapse in the value of the rouble

The World in 2014

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 14 Dec 2014 18:13:00 +0000

earning calendar

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:08:00 +0000

http://www.thestreet.com/event-calendar/index.html

malaysia economy

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 17:07:00 +0000

Malaysia Economy

Malaysia is a South-East Asian country separated into two regions by the South China Sea. The two parts are Peninsular Malaysia and Malaysian Borneo. Kuala Lumpur is its capital city. As of 2009, Malaysia’s total population stands at over 28 million. Its neighboring countries include Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and Brunei. Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and AirAsia are the major national carriers of the country. Malaysia can be reached by air from destinations, such as Australia, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Laos, Macau, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.

Malaysian economy witnessed an economic boom in the 1970s, following which it expanded to become a multi-sector economy from being a raw materials producer. The country’s rich natural resources ensure sound developments in agriculture, forestry and mining. Economic growth is also attributed to its border with the Strait of Malacca which is an important international shipping crossroad, which promotes the country’s international trade. Malaysia’s well developed manufacturing sector produces a diverse range of goods. The first three quarters of 2009, however, witnessed steep decline in the country’s economic growth. Volume of exports reduced drastically due to reduced consumer goods demand globally. The situation, however, improved somewhat in the Q4FY09. The Tenth Malaysia Plan is all set to be introduced in June 2010.

malaysia economy for 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 14:10:00 +0000

Economy - overview:

Malaysia, a middle-income country, has transformed itself since the 1970s from a producer of raw materials into an emerging multi-sector economy. After coming to office in 2003, former Prime Minister ABDULLAH tried to move the economy farther up the value-added production chain by attracting investments in high technology industries, medical technology, and pharmaceuticals, an effort that continues under current Prime Minister NAJIB. The NAJIB administration also is continuing efforts to boost domestic demand and to wean the economy off of its dependence on exports. Nevertheless, exports - particularly of electronics - remain a significant driver of the economy. As an oil and gas exporter, Malaysia has profited from higher world energy prices, although the rising cost of domestic gasoline and diesel fuel, combined with strained government finances, has forced Kuala Lumpur to reduce government subsidies. The government is also trying to lessen its dependence on state oil producer Petronas, which supplies 40% of government revenue. The central bank maintains healthy foreign exchange reserves and its well-developed regulatory regime has limited Malaysia's exposure to riskier financial instruments and the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, decreasing worldwide demand for consumer goods hurt Malaysia's exports and economic growth in 2009, although both began showing signs of recovery late in the year. In June 2010 NAJIB will introduce the Tenth Malaysia Plan, outlining new reforms. NAJIB already has introduced several reforms in the services sector in a bid to attract direct foreign investment, which has stagnated in recent years.

GDP (purchasing power parity):
$378.9 billion (2009 est.)

$389.8 billion (2008 est.)

$372.7 billion (2007 est.)
note: data are in 2009 US dollars
[see also: GDP (purchasing power parity) country ranks ] GDP (official exchange rate):
$207.4 billion (2009 est.)
[see also: GDP (official exchange rate) country ranks ]
GDP - real growth rate:
-2.8% (2009 est.)

4.6% (2008 est.)

6.2% (2007 est.)
[see also: GDP - real growth rate country ranks ] GDP - per capita (PPP):
$14,700 (2009 est.)

$15,400 (2008 est.)

$15,000 (2007 est.)
note: data are in 2009 US dollars
[see also: GDP - per capita country ranks ] GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 10.1%
[see also: GDP - composition by sector - agriculture country ranks ]
industry: 42.3%
[see also: GDP - composition by sector - industry country ranks ]
services: 47.6% (2009 est.)
[see also: GDP - composition by sector - services country ranks ]
Labor force:
11.29 million (2009 est.)
[see also: Labor force country ranks ]
Labor force - by occupation:
agriculture: 13%
[see also: Labor force - by occupation - agriculture country ranks ]
industry: 36%
[see also: Labor force - by occupation - industry country ranks ]
services: 51% (2005 est.)
[see also: Labor force - by occupation - services country ranks ]
Unemployment rate:
5% (2009 est.)

3.325% (2008 est.)
[see also: Unemployment rate country ranks ] Population below poverty line:
5.1% (2002 est.)
[see also: Population below poverty line country ranks ]
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
lowest 10%: 2.6%
[see also: Household income or consumption by percentage share - lowest 10% country ranks ]
highest 10%: 28.5% (2005 est.)
[see also: Household income or consumption by percentage share - highest 10% country ranks ]
Distribution of family income - Gini index:
46.1 (2002)

49.2 (1997)
[see also: Distribution of family income - Gini index country ranks ] Investment (gross fixed):
18.2% of GDP (2009 est.)
[see also: Investment (gross fixed) country ranks ]
Budget:
revenues: $44.6 billion
[see also: Budget - revenues country ranks ]
expenditures: $60.72 billion (2009 est.)
[see also: Budget - expenditures country ranks ]
Public debt:
47.8% of GDP (2009 est.)

40% of GDP (2008 est.)
[see also: Public debt country ranks ] Inflation rate (consumer prices):
0.4% (2009 est.)

5.4% (2008 est.)
note: approximately 30% of goods are price-controlled
[see also: Inflation rate (consumer prices) country ranks ] Central bank discount rate:
NA% (31 December 2008)
[see also: Central bank discount rate country ranks ]
Commercial bank prime lending rate:
6.08% (31 December 2008)

6.41% (31 December 2007)
[see also: Commercial bank prime lending rate country ranks ] Stock of money:
$51.51 billion (31 December 2008)

$49.41 billion (31 December 2007)
[see also: Stock of money country ranks ] Stock of quasi money:
$200.9 billion (31 December 2008)

$187.6 billion (31 December 2007)
[see also: Stock of quasi money country ranks ] Stock of domestic credit:
$246.7 billion (31 December 2008)

$220 billion (31 December 2007)
[see also: Stock of domestic credit country ranks ] Market value of publicly traded shares:
$187.1 billion (31 December 2008)

$325.7 billion (31 December 2007)

$235.4 billion (31 December 2006)
[see also: Market value of publicly traded shares country ranks ] Agriculture - products:
Peninsular Malaysia - rubber, palm oil, cocoa, rice; Sabah - subsistence crops, rubber, timber, coconuts, rice; Sarawak - rubber, pepper, timber
Industries:
Peninsular Malaysia - rubber and oil palm processing and manufacturing, light manufacturing, electronics, tin mining and smelting, logging, timber processing; Sabah - logging, petroleum production; Sarawak - agriculture processing, petroleum production and refining, logging
Industrial production growth rate:
-8% (2009 est.)
[see also: Industrial production growth rate country ranks ]
Electricity - production:
103.2 billion kWh (2007 est.)
[see also: Electricity - production country ranks ]
Electricity - consumption:
99.25 billion kWh (2007 est.)
[see also: Electricity - consumption country ranks ]
Electricity - exports:
2.268 billion kWh (2007 est.)
[see also: Electricity - exports country ranks ]
Electricity - imports:
0 kWh (2008 est.)
[see also: Electricity - imports country ranks ]
Oil - production:
727,200 bbl/day (2008 est.)
[see also: Oil - production country ranks ]
Oil - consumption:
547,000 bbl/day (2008 est.)
[see also: Oil - consumption country ranks ]
Oil - exports:
511,900 bbl/day (2007 est.)
[see also: Oil - exports country ranks ]
Oil - imports:
314,600 bbl/day (2007 est.)
[see also: Oil - imports country ranks ]
Oil - proved reserves:
4 billion bbl (1 January 2009 est.)
[see also: Oil - proved reserves country ranks ]
Natural gas - production:
57.3 billion cu m (2008 est.)
[see also: Natural gas - production country ranks ]
Natural gas - consumption:
26.27 billion cu m (2008 est.)
[see also: Natural gas - consumption country ranks ]
Natural gas - exports:
31.03 billion cu m (2008 est.)
[see also: Natural gas - exports country ranks ]
Natural gas - imports:
0 cu m (2008 est.)
[see also: Natural gas - imports country ranks ]
Natural gas - proved reserves:
2.35 trillion cu m (1 January 2009 est.)
[see also: Natural gas - proved reserves country ranks ]
Current account balance:
$27.76 billion (2009 est.)

$33.76 billion (2008 est.)
[see also: Current account balance country ranks ] Exports:
$156.4 billion (2009 est.)

$198.7 billion (2008 est.)
[see also: Exports country ranks ] Exports - commodities:
electronic equipment, petroleum and liquefied natural gas, wood and wood products, palm oil, rubber, textiles, chemicals
Exports - partners:
Singapore 14.7%, US 12.5%, Japan 10.8%, China 9.5%, Thailand 4.8%, Hong Kong 4.3% (2008)
Imports:
$119.5 billion (2009 est.)

$154.7 billion (2008 est.)
[see also: Imports country ranks ] Imports - commodities:
electronics, machinery, petroleum products, plastics, vehicles, iron and steel products, chemicals
Imports - partners:
China 12.8%, Japan 12.5%, Singapore 11%, US 10.8%, Thailand 5.6%, South Korea 4.6%, Indonesia 4.6%, Germany 4.3% (2008)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:
$98.02 billion (31 December 2009 est.)

$91.21 billion (31 December 2008 est.)
[see also: Reserves of foreign exchange and gold country ranks ] Debt - external:
$48.26 billion (31 December 2009 est.)

$75.33 billion (31 December 2008 est.)
[see also: Debt - external country ranks ] Stock of direct foreign investment - at home:
$86.43 billion (31 December 2009 est.)

$83.35 billion (31 December 2008 est.)
[see also: Stock of direct foreign investment - at home country ranks ] Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad:
$70.7 billion (31 December 2009 est.)

$71.2 billion (31 December 2008 est.)
[see also: Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad country ranks ] Exchange rates:
ringgits (MYR) per US dollar - 3.55 (2009), 3.33 (2008), 3.46 (2007), 3.6683 (2006), 3.8 (2005)

Economy review 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:21:00 +0000

Asean trending monitoring

AS SINGAPORE mulls over whether it should go down the route of nuclear energy, Asian countries are leading the field in what some insiders have called a nuclear renaissance.

"There's certainly an expansion in nuclear power, especially in Asia. Sixty-one reactors are under construction worldwide and 40 of these are being built in Asia," Mr Scott Peterson of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) in the United States told Today.

"Even the UAE in the Gulf, which you would think would use oil and gas," is embracing nuclear power, said Mr Ian Cronshaw, a top official at the Paris-based International Energy Agency. "It's definitely fair to talk about a nuclear renaissance."

There are strong reasons for this trend. At a time of volatile gas prices, nuclear energy could ensure "stable" electricity prices, said Mr Cronshaw, highlighting an advantage of nuclear power amid rising energy use worldwide.

In a world confronting climate change, nuclear is a carbon-free alternative to fossil fuels and it provides energy security, he said.

Nuclear power is also an energy-dense resource, leaving a small amount of radioactive residue or spent fuel, and requiring less space than renewable energy projects such as wind farms, the industry says.

"Uranium has tremendous energy density," said Mr Peterson, the NEI's vice-president of communications. "The amount of spent fuel that was used to provide electricity for a family of four in the US during their lifetimes is about the size of a 12-ounce can - a Coca-Cola can."

The greatest growth in nuclear generation is expected in China, Japan, South Korea and India, according to the London-based World Nuclear Association (WNA).

In contrast, the US is emerging from a 30-year period in which few new reactors were built and the European scene has remained relatively dormant, activists and industry professionals noted.

In South-east Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam have expressed interest in nuclear power and Singapore announced earlier this year it was conducting a feasibility study.

LIVING NEAR A PLANT

However, the decades-old debate surrounding nuclear power continues - and it is as polarised as ever. The industry says nuclear energy is clean and safe, while anti-nuclear activists disagree, advocating a zero-tolerance approach to nuclear risk. Experts can disagree on the facts, making it even trickier for laymen to navigate the often emotive debate.

Concerns about safety and security are paramount, with memories of Chernobyl and Three Mile Island etched into the public consciousness. To this end, "about a third of the costs" go towards safety systems in Western reactors, said Mr Ian Hore-Lacy, a WNA spokesman. New large reactors in the US cost between US$6 billion ($7.8 billion) and US$8 billion, according to the NEI's Mr Peterson.

Contrary to the expectations of some, nuclear facilities can be sited near urban areas without affecting safety. At a recent lecture in Singapore, Mr Yukiya Amano, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said: "There is not such a rule in the IAEA that a nuclear power plant should be constructed some distance from a populated area."

The US is the world's largest producer of nuclear energy and each of its 104 reactors is surrounded by a "10-mile (16km) safety zone", said Mr Peterson, adding "that doesn't mean that residents don't live near the plants because many do".

This safety zone is central to planning evacuation programmes in the event of a nuclear accident, he said. As a testament to nuclear safety in the US, these evacuation plans have "mostly been used for other purposes, such as natural disasters (like) Hurricane Katrina", said Mr Peterson.

ANOTHER CHERNOBYL?

A repeat of the 1986 nuclear explosion at Chernobyl, which caused thousands of radiation deaths, is "impossible", said Mr Peterson, expressing a view found throughout the industry. "It's impossible for a Chernobyl to happen in any Western reactor because it's a totally different reactor design."

But while a reactor like that used at Chernobyl is obsolete, some scientists believe a nuclear accident on a similar scale could take place.

"It wouldn't happen in exactly the same way", said Dr Edwin Lyman, a scientist at the non-profit Union of Concerned Scientists in the US. However, a similarly catastrophic event could occur "in light water reactors - which can be found in the US, China and Japan - if there is a failure in some equipment, blocking cooling-water from carrying heat away from the nuclear fuel", he explained.

Accidents can also be caused by "human failures", such as the lapses at the Forsmark nuclear facility in Sweden, said Mr Peer de Rijk, director of World Information Service on Energy, an anti-nuclear network.

Human error can be compounded by cover-ups at the facilities concerned.

"In 2002, it emerged that Japan's biggest electric company Tepco (Tokyo Electric Power Company) had covered up cracks," said Mr Philip White, a spokesman at the Citizens' Nuclear Information Centre in Japan.

Tepco admitted in August 2002 that it had misreported safety problems in the late 1980s and early 1990s after a government report revealed 29 cases of cracks or minor structural damage in eight of the company's 17 nuclear reactors.

Mr White described a "series of scandals" where the Japanese public has grown increasingly wary of nuclear power. In recent years, earthquakes affected operations in certain Japanese plants thought to have been relatively safe from the seismic tremors that the country is prone to.

HOW MUCH RADIATION IS DANGEROUS?

In a landmark accident, part of the core of the reactor melted at Three Mile Island in the US. However, the reactor in the 1979 incident contained the resulting radiation, as it was built to do, said WNA's Mr Hore-Lacy. "It was a very serious accident but nobody was exposed to any significant level of radiation. Nobody got a radiation dose from that any higher than you would get flying from Singapore to Hong Kong," he said.

Radiation occurs in the everyday environment and nuclear radiation is no different from any other radiation, anti-nuclear groups and industry insiders agree. Natural sources, such as radon in rocks, account for most of the radiation we all receive every year.

"The average American receives about 300 millirem per year from natural sources like the earth, radon and food and water. If someone lives within 80km of a nuclear power plant, they will receive on average 0.009 millirem per year ... far less than living near a coal-fired power plant (because of natural uranium in coal) at 0.03 millirem per year," said Mr Peterson. The millirem is the American measure for radiation.

"For comparison, an average person receives 0.1 millirem each year from their computer screen."

While radiation is a part of life, exposure to radioactive nuclear substances is an emotive issue affecting the handling, storage and disposal of nuclear waste. Anti-nuclear advocates insist no safe level of radiation exists - a view refuted by nuclear insiders and some scientists. "The scientific consensus is that there's no such thing as a safe level of radiation," said Dr Lyman.

The influential International Commission on Radiological Protection is among the organisations that use the Linear-No Threshold (LNT) model accepted by mainstream scientists, which implies that all exposure to radiation - even at very low levels - carries a risk of causing damage.

Not all agree with this methodology. Critics question using data on high doses to extrapolate conclusions for risk estimates on low doses. The Health Physics Society, for instance, states that "there is substantial and convincing scientific evidence for health risks following high-dose exposures" but below 5 to 10 millirem, the risks are "either too small to be observed or are non-existent".

"Current radiation protection standards and practices are based on the premise that any radiation dose, no matter how small, may result in detrimental health effects, such as cancer and hereditary genetic damage," it added, taking issue with this LNT approach. "There is substantial scientific evidence that this model is an oversimplification."

A POLITICAL ISSUE

Nuclear radiation remains a political issue around the world. "In the US, in the last half-dozen years, ageing plants have been leaking radioactive tritium via broken pipes," said Mr Michael Mariotte, executive director of the anti-nuclear group, Nuclear Information and Resource Service. While nuclear authorities say tritium is not a health hazard, a leaking nuclear plant in Vermont in the US has become a political issue in the governors' election race.

Anti-nuclear activists say there is no solution to nuclear waste because there is no permanent way to dispose of it safely; some nuclear substances can remain radioactive for thousands, even hundreds of thousands, of years.

If storage facilities are completely sealed, "if you are not exposed, there is no harm. But if they get into the environment, they can get into the drinking water or the food chain, leading to internal contamination", said scientist Jan Vande Putte of Greenpeace International. In 2008, he noted, some of the 126,000 barrels of radioactive waste at the Asse nuclear waste storage facility in Germany were found to be leaking.

Training, safety and security measures at nuclear facilities are extremely rigorous. While nuclear waste is stored underground in many countries, in the US, the spent fuel and waste products are mostly stored onsite in dry casks or in pools of water. The NEI's Mr Peterson cited safe storage "for five decades at the plants, under 30 feet (9m) of water, in water-filled vaults made of concrete and lined with steel."

Security-wise, nuclear plants can withstand assaults such as a targeted aircraft strike like in the 911 terror attacks, he added.

Spent fuel, which can be reprocessed for further use, can be transported away from countries with nuclear plants - arguably a possible political solution to the "not in my backyard" syndrome, where local populations are inimical to the idea of nuclear power in their neighbourhood.

"For suppliers of nuclear fuel like Russia's Rosatom, once you have finished with the spent fuel, they can take it back and store it in their own countries, or they can actually reprocess it and give it back to you," said Dr Hooman Peimani, principal fellow at the National University of Singapore's Energy Studies Institute.

While nuclear arms technology is different from commercial nuclear production, proliferation is another key concern. Mr Vande Putte of Greenpeace is of the view that "it is almost impossible for a terrorist organisation to do it (build a nuclear weapon), but a state with its resources" would be able to.

"It is actually impossible to have a totally transparent nuclear debate because of strategic sensitivities" concerning military nuclear weapons, said Mr Vande Putte, offering a reason for the polarised nature of the global nuclear debate.

Stronger Economy Will Make Stocks Attractive in 2011: Pro....MYBE...

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 15:46:00 +0000

Will investors return to stocks in 2011? David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, shared his insights.

“Individual investors can make money by moving back towards equities and that is something we’re going to see over the next year,” Kelly told CNBC.

“And we’ve been seeing the first signs of it in the last few months.”

Kelly said there are signs that investors are becoming more balanced and expects to see a “push and pull” effect taking place in 2011.

“People are going to be pulled into equities by a stronger economy, but will be pushed out of bonds by worries that rising interest rates could inflict some losses on those bond funds,” he said.

original article was taken from web

the 4G Broadband network in Malaysia

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 14:17:00 +0000

1Malaysia P1

hehe..

How to Budget and Save Money

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 04:34:00 +0000

Do you ever find yourself wondering where you spent all your paycheck? You are not alone. For so many of us it seems that no matter how much we make we still don't have enough money left at the end of the month to put away towards our retirement, emergency savings or even a well deserved vacation! This article will teach you how to finally break that viscous cycle, budget your money and save.

source:eHOW

Global economic recovery has started: IMF official

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:35:00 +0000

WASHINGTON: The global economic recovery has begun but sustaining it will require refocusing the United States toward exports and Asia toward

imports, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said. In an article released by the IMF on Tuesday, Olivier Blanchard also said potential economic output may be lower than it was before the financial crisis struck.

"The turnaround will not be simple," Blanchard said. "The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come." He said US consumption, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the US economy and a large chunk of global demand, would not quickly return to pre-crisis strength as households cope with trillions of dollars in losses from the falling housing and stock markets.

He said the financial crisis had made Americans more conscious of "tail risks" -- events that are unlikely to occur, but when they do have devastating consequences. That means US consumers are unlikely to return to their free-spending ways, and both the United States and its trading partners will have to adjust. Emerging Asian countries, especially China, must play a big role.

"From the point of view of the United States, a decrease in China's current account surplus would help increase demand and sustain the US recovery," he said.

"That would result in more US imports which would help sustain world recovery." But in order for China to boost domestic demand, it will need to provide a stronger social safety net and increase household access to credit, which will encourage its consumers to save less and spend more. "Both higher Chinese import demand and a higher (yuan) will increase US net exports," he said.

source:the economic time

Business Conditions Index: BCI 2Q 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 17:07:00 +0000

A GLIMMER OF HOPE

BCI soars 44.1 points quarter-on-quarter to above 100-point threshold
All eight sub-indices higher quarter-on-quarter
Only one sub-index - expected production - rose year-on-year
Lower inventory levels and wage pressures, increased hirings.

source:malaysian institute of economic

The Economic Problem

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 16:33:00 +0000

How do we sum up the basic economic problem? We all suffer from it and spend most of our lives trying to resolve it. Essentially, the economic problem stems from the fact that as humans, we have unlimited wants and needs. A need is something that can be seen as being essential to survival, such as food, water, shelter and warmth. A want is something that we would like to have but which is not essential to survival - a car, the latest version of the PlayStation, that new top you have seen in Top Shop, the mobile phone with all the latest gadgets on etc.

The problem is that the world and every individual in it have limited resources in relation to the wants and needs we have. We never have enough money to get what we 'want'. There are never enough resources to make sure the health service works properly; teachers and lecturers will always moan about how they never have enough resources to do their job properly. In recent times, we have heard much about the problems faced by the armed forces in conflict zones around the world 'not having the tools to get the job done'.

There have been plenty of news items in recent years about the lack of resources available to the military in dangerous conflict zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan. If we were to increase the number of soldiers, equipment and weapons available to the military, it would have consequences elsewhere. The government has limited funds from taxes, which have to be spent on a wide range of things - if we diverted more funds to the military, there would have to be cuts elsewhere in the government's spending programme - or a rise in taxes. Copyright: Dragon MasterGunner, from stock.xchng.

All these things are symptomatic of the tension between scarce resources and unlimited wants and needs. That is what the economic problem is all about.

At this stage, you might point to the fact that countries like the UK and the United States produce massive amounts of waste every year. You might look at the food that is wasted in restaurants, fast food outlets and even the school canteen every day to wonder why there is so much wasted food, with so many people in the world hungry and on the verge of starvation.

Part of the problem is the fact that resources are not distributed evenly between countries and societies. The terms 'wants' and 'needs' are also relative terms. 'I really, really want a Ferrari' might be the comment of an individual in the UK; 'I really, really want to be able to walk only two miles to get the daily ration of water for my household' might be the cry of an individual in the Sudan. To each individual, they are both important - we might be able to point out that the Ferrari is not really that necessary; a Smart car will do just as well!

Wants, needs and scarce resources - all part of the economic problem. Wants and needs are relative - my burning want might be very different from the wants of someone like the boy in the image above. Copyright: Luca Biagiotti from stock.xchng, Andrew Ashwin, and Luc Sesselle from stock.xchng.

Resources is a specific term used a great deal in economics. It describes all the things available at our disposal that can be used to satisfy our needs. This therefore includes things like our income, which is simply a means of acquiring a range of goods and services. Resources therefore might be the food we buy at shops, clothing, houses, cars, entertainment, metal, minerals, oil, timber, gas, plastics and so on.

In economics, these resources are normally classified into three or four categories. These are:

Land - all the natural resources of the earth. That includes the fish in the sea, all the minerals found in the earth, metals, sand, stones, rocks, timber, food from the soil and so on. Economists have a name for the reward for the income from 'land' which is rent.
Labour - all the human mental and physical effort that goes into production. This will include people who work as street cleaners, people who are interior designers, teachers, the police, doctors, bricklayers, architects and so on. The reward for labour is referred to as wages.
Capital - all the equipment, machinery and buildings that is not used for its own sake but for the contribution it makes to production. This includes things like office desks and chairs, computers, lorries, cranes, specialist machinery in a factory, the humble office coffee machine and so on. The 'price' of acquiring capital is referred to as interest.

This factory uses a large amount of capital in the production process - there are the buildings that form the factory, all the machines that are used in production and all the equipment needed to make sure the machines and the production process operates smoothly. However, what it also needs is labour, raw materials, land and enterprise to make it all work properly. Copyright: Wena, from stock.xchng.

Enterprise - the skills needed to organise other resources into some form of production. Some people would put enterprise as a specialist skill within labour but enterprise does have some distinctive characteristics that merit its own category. The return for enterprise is called profit.

Regardless of the task, the human resource of labour comes in many different forms. Labour offers its services in exchange for a reward or price - wages. Copyright: Cristina Ortigoso, Mitchell Powell, Joseph Zlomek and Francesco Pacilli, all from stock.xchng.

If we had an unlimited supply of resources at our disposal we would be able to meet any want or need. The problem is, we do not have unlimited resources at our disposal. We therefore have to make choices. Economics, could, therefore, be described as the science of choice.

Choices are made at many different levels.

You might go into a shop and see two great-looking pairs of jeans but you only have enough money (resources) to buy one of them.
A hospital manager may have 50 patients all wanting to have an operation immediately but there might only be sufficient resources (doctors, nurses, equipment, rooms, beds etc.) at that time to treat 20 of them.
A business might have received a major order for its products and wants to increase production but does not have the staff or the equipment and raw materials to meet the order in full.
An individual in Ethiopia might want a bowl of rice to eat but has to survive on whatever they can scavenge from the parched earth.

All these examples highlight the problem of scarce resources in relation to wants and needs. When we are faced with these choices, we have to go through some quite sophisticated decision making. We might not always be aware that we are making sophisticated decisions but in reality we are. Such decision making is at the heart of the subject of economics and tells us something about how humans try to tackle the economic problem.

source:Bized

Ask for a Lower Credit Card Interest Rate

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 03:21:00 +0000

A major consumer group conducted a study to find out how easy it is to get a lower credit card interest rate. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of those who simply telephoned their credit card company and asked for a lower interest rate got one instantly. This rate was anywhere from 7 to 10 points lower than their current credit card interest rate.

Getting your credit card interest rate lowered depends on various factors. They are more willing to say "yes" if you meet most or all of the following conditions:

(1) You have a good credit rating -- meaning no late pay notations on your credit report and a good credit score;

(2) You do not have a high debt-to-income ratio and you do not carry a big balance on your credit card;

(3) You do not send in just the minimum payment required each month;

(4) You have an excellent payment record with that particular creditor;

(5) The credit card is not one that is categorized as "sub-prime", meaning it is not a secured credit card or one marketed exclusively to those with bad credit.

If you think you would qualify for a lower credit card interest rate, your next step is to do a bit of research and visit the websites of the largest credit card issuers listed below to compare various credit card offers before you telephone them. Keep in mind that the interest rates credit card companies advertise prominently on their websites are reserved for those who earn a median to high income and have excellent credit --

www.bankofamerica.com www.capitalone.com

www.mbna.com www.americanexpress.com

www.discovercard.com www.fleet.com

www.citibank.com www.chase.com

www.wellsfargo.com www.firstunion.com

www.bankone.com www.providian.com

When you call and ask for a lower interest rate, your reasoning should be based on the argument that you deserve it because you're an excellent customer or you're getting better offers from other credit card banks.

Telephone Scripts

Script 1: I've visited the websites of several of your competitors, the ______ Bank and ______ Bank, and found that they are offering a _____ interest rate on purchases, which is _____ points lower than what I'm paying on my credit card. Are you willing to give me that interest rate?

Script 2: I am requesting that you reduce my current interest rate of 16.9% to 8.9% so that it is in line with what is available in the current market. I feel this is a fair rate since at least three major credit card issuers, _________, _________, and _________ are offering it to new customers like me who have an excellent credit rating.

Script 3: [Find out the current rate being offered at a credit card website and then lie and say] I have received a pre-approved offer in the mail from _______ Bank offering me a ____ interest rate card. Can you beat or match that offer or do I have to transfer my balance to their credit card?

Script 4: I visited your website and noticed that you are offering a ____ rate to attract new customers. I have been an excellent customer of yours for __ years and would like to receive the same rate being offered to new customers.

Script 5: I was about to sign up for a new credit card at the _______ website and thought I would call you and ask for a lower rate before doing so. If you don't give me that rate today I will transfer my balance from your card to theirs as soon as I hang up the phone.

Letters

If a telephone call won't work, odds are that a letter won't work either. We provide letters only because some people prefer sending a letter instead of phoning a credit card company.

Letter 1: Threaten to Transfer Balance To Another Credit Card

Letter 2: Followup Letter When Phone Request For a Lower Rate is Denied

Letter 3: Request They Match or Beat a Competitor's Offer

Follow-Up

Just because they say no today, doesn't mean they will say no six months from now or a year from now. If they say no, then transfer the balance to another card if you qualify to do so. If you don't qualify for a transfer because your credit score isn't high enough, then spend the next six months paying down as much debt as you can and paying all of your bills on time so that you can raise your credit score and qualify for a better interest rate. Keep calling and asking for a lower rate every six months and continue improving your credit score.

source:credit and debt solution

How to Save Money

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:43:00 +0000

Steps

Set savings goals. For short-term goals, this is easy. If you want to buy a video game, find out how much it costs; if you want to buy a house, determine how much of a down payment you’ll need. For long-term goals, such as retirement, you’ll need to do a lot more planning (figuring out how much money you’ll need to live comfortably for 20 or 30 years after you stop working), and you’ll also need to figure out how investments will help you achieve your goals.
- Kill your debt first. Simply calculating how much you spend each month on your debts will illustrate that eliminating debt is the fastest way to free up money. Once the money is freed from debt payment, it can easily be re-purposed to savings.
Establish a timeframe. For example: "I want to be able to buy a house two years from today." Set a particular date for accomplishing shorter-term goals, and make sure the goal is attainable within that time period. If it’s not attainable, you’ll just get discouraged.
Figure out how much you’ll have to save per week, per month, or per paycheck to attain each of your savings goals. Take each thing you want to save for and figure out how much you need to start saving now. For most savings goals, it’s best to save the same amount each period. For example, if you want to put a $20,000 down payment on a home in 36 months (three years), you’ll need to save about $550 per month every month. But if your paychecks amount to $1000, it might not be a realistic goal, so adjust your timeframe until you come up with an approachable amount.
Keep a record of your expenses. What you save falls between two activities and their difference: how much you make and how much you spend. Since you have more control over how much you spend, it's wise to take a critical look at your expenses. Write down everything you spend your money on for a couple weeks or a month. Be as detailed as possible, and try not to leave out small purchases. Assign each purchase or expenditure a category such as: Rent, Car insurance, Car payments, Phone Bill, Cable Bill, Utilities, Gas, Food, Entertainment, etc.
- Keep a small notebook with you at all times. Get in the habit of recording every expense and saving the receipts.
- Sit down once a week with your small notebook and receipts. Record your expenses in a larger notebook or a spreadsheet program.
Trim your expenses. Take a good, hard look at your spending records after a month or two have passed. You’ll probably be surprised when you look back at your record of expenses: $300 on ice cream, $100 on parking tickets? You’ll likely see some obvious cuts you can make. Depending on how much you need to save, however, you may need to make some difficult decisions. Think about your priorities, and make cuts you can live with. Calculate how much those cuts will save you per year, and you'll be much more motivated to pinch pennies.
- Can you move to a less expensive apartment or house? Can you refinance your mortgage?
- Can you consolidate your debts so that you're not paying as much interest?
- Can you save money on gas, or give up a car altogether? If your family has multiple cars, can you bring it down to one?
- Can you get a better price on insurance? Call around and make sure you are getting the best price you can. Consider taking a higher deductible, too.
- Can you drop a land line and either only use your cell phone or save money by calling over the internet for free with services such as Skype?
- Can you live without cable or satellite TV?
- Can you cut down on your utility bills?
- Can you restrict eating out? Buy food in bulk? Start using coupons? Cook more at home? You might be able to save a lot of money on food.
Reassess your savings goals. Subtract your expenses (the ones you can't live without) from your take-home income (i.e. after taxes have been taken out). What is the difference? And does it match up with your savings goals? Let's say you've decided you can definitely get by on $1500 per month, and your paychecks amount to $2300 per month. That leaves you with $800 to save. If there’s absolutely no way you can fit all your savings goals into your budget, take a look at what you’re saving for and cut the less important things or adjust the timeframe. Maybe you need to put off buying a new car for another year, or maybe you don’t really need a big-screen TV that badly.
Make a budget. Once you’ve managed to balance your earnings with your savings goals and spending, write down a budget so you’ll know each month or each paycheck how much you can spend on any given thing or category of things. This is especially important for expenses which tend to fluctuate, or which you know you're going to have a particularly hard time restricting. (E.g. "I will only spend $30 a month on movies/chocolate/coffuee/etc.")
Stop using credit cards. Pay for everything with cash or money orders. Don't even use checks. It's easier to overspend when you're pulling from a bank or credit account because you don't know exactly how much is in there. If you have cash, you can see your supply running low. You can even bundle up the predetermined amount of cash allocated for each expense with a label or keep separate jars for each expense (e.g. a bundle/jar for coffee, another for gas, another for miscellaneous). As you pull money from a jar for that particular expense, you'll see how much remains and you'll also be reminded of your limit.
- If you need to have credit cards but you don't want the temptation of having them available to use day-to-day, restrict that section of your wallet with a note or picture reminding you of your savings goals.
- Credit cards are not inherently evil; it's all about your self control. If you use them responsibly (i.e. completely pay them off every month), you can benefit from them. But the reason most credit card companies make money, however, is because people end up spending money that they don't have. Unless you are one of the people who can religiously pay off the balance in full every month, you're better off foregoing the promotions that credit card companies use to lure you in (cash back, introductory APR, airline miles, and so on).
Open an interest-bearing savings account. It’s a lot easier to keep track of your savings if you have them separate from your spending money. You can also usually get better interest on savings accounts than on checking accounts (if you get interest on your checking account at all). Consider higher-interest options such as CDs or money-market accounts for longer savings goals.
Know where your money is. And how much of it, too. If you accidentally overdraw your bank account, you will incur hefty bank fees; worse yet, the place you paid with that check may slap a bounced check fee on top of that, and send the check in again, resulting in a second overdraft fee from the bank! So just a few cents missing to cover that check could result in over $100 in fees. To avoid that, you should always know how much money you've got in your account(s), so you never cut a check for more than what you have.
- Look into checking and savings accounts that pay interest. Also, consider CDs (certificates of deposit) for longer-term savings with low risk.
Pay yourself first. Savings should be your priority, so don’t just say that you’ll save whatever’s left over at the end of the month. Deposit savings into an account (or your piggybank) as soon as you get paid. An easy, effective way to start saving is to simply deposit 10% of every check in a savings account. If you get a check or sum of cash, say 710.68, move the decimal point one place to the left and deposit that amount: 71.07. This works well and requires little thought; over several years, you've a tidy sum in savings. Over decades, you'll be a millionaire.
- You can set up an automatic transfer from your checking account to your savings account.
- Many employers allow you to deduct savings from your paycheck. The money is directly deposited in your savings account so you never even see it on your paycheck.
- You can also have investments for retirement taken directly out of your pay, and the taxes may be deferred with this option.

source:http://www.wikihow.com/Save-Money

MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 22:43:00 +0000

Executive Summary

The road to global recovery appears to be sluggish and uneven, facing many daunting challenges along the way. Both the World Bank and the IMF are projecting the world economy to slide into a deeper recession in 2009. In Jul'09, the IMF revised its global economic forecast to -1.4 per cent in 2009 ('08: 3.1%), while the global contraction in 2009 is estimated at -2.9 per cent by the World Bank. According to the latest IMF revision, the US ('09: -2.6%) will experience a less severe recession in 2009 compared to Europe which may face a deeper one ('09: -4.8%). The IMF projects the world economy to recover to around 2.5 per cent growth in 2010, with the US recording a meagre 0.8 per cent growth in 2010, slightly higher than the previous zero per cent growth forecast..

As the external sector tumbles, Malaysia's GDP contracted by a steep -6.2 per cent in 1Q09, following a stagnant 0.1 per cent growth in 4Q08. As external demand nose dived, Malaysia's exports dipped sharply in 1Q09, while investment was severely affected as well. Given the deteriorating global economic prospects, a second stimulus package amounting to RM60 billion (about 9% of GDP) was unveiled in Mar'09. Although the second package appears larger, the actual direct spending is only RM15 billion (or 25% of total) to be spent over a two-year period. The recurring concerns have been the speed and efficiency of implementation and the potential leakages. A notable point is the greater attention given to retrenched workers and unemployed graduates. With the second stimulus package, the fiscal deficit is estimated to rise to 7.6 per cent of GDP in 2009, up markedly from 4.8 per cent in 2008.

In a move to make Malaysia more attractive to investors, liberalisation measures have been announced. Starting 22 Apr'09, 27 services sub-sectors were fully liberalised to foreign investors, on the premise that Malaysia lacks expertise and local investments in many of these sub-sectors. Among the sectors opened up are computer and related services, health and social services, tourism services, transport, recreational, business services and shipping. On 30 Jun'09, the long standing 30 per cent bumiputra equity requirement for newly listed companies was removed, making investment conditions less restrictive. This will bring Malaysia's equity market closer to regional benchmarks, but the impact remains to be seen since there are many factors influencing investment decisions

Monthly indicators up to May'09 are still losing momentum markedly, but the rate of decline has eased slightly in some sectors. Industrial output registered a sharp contraction in May'09 (-11.1% year-on-year), but subsiding from a steeper fall (-17.9% ) in Jan'09. Exports have yet to show any stabilising signs, nose diving by -29.7 per cent in May'09, while imports dipped -27.8 per cent. Thanks to reduction in local oil prices and slower rise in food prices, inflation has eased to 2.4 per cent in May'09, down from 3.9 per cent in Jan'09. Inflation will likely subside further in tandem with the softening economy. .

In the wake of the deteriorating global economy and its adverse effects on domestic conditions, Bank Negara reduced the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 50 basis points to 2.00 per cent on 24 Feb'09, the third time in five months. Bank Negara has slashed 1.50 percentage points from 3.50 per cent since Nov'08 and cut the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) to 1.0 per cent, effective Mar'09. Bank Negara has noted that lower rates could hurt savers and those who rely on incomes from deposits. The latest policy meeting on 26 May'09 has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged in view of the persistent effects of the crisis amid early signs of stabilisation in some indicators.

Consumer and business confidence has improved in 2Q09, possibly influenced by the measures taken to support the economy. These include the fiscal stimulus packages, the historically low interest rates, and the recent liberalisation measures. Both the Business Conditions Index (BCI) and the Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI) have passed the 100-points threshold that separates expansion and contraction. The BCI, which is based largely on firm-level information, has gained 44.1 points to stand at 105.2 points in 2Q09, up from 61.1 in 1Q09, indicating that business confidence has regained some strength. Likewise, the CSI has notched up 26.9 points to 105.8 points in 2Q09, up from 78.9 points in 1Q09. Despite the still sharp declines in monthly indicators, the rise in sentiments could have been propped up by the perception that recent measures would stabilise the economy.

TThere are glimmer signs that the global downturn has stabilised somewhat, but the recovery is expected to be sluggish and uneven. The healing from the current crisis will be difficult compared to previous ones because of the synchronised nature of the downturn. It will take time and huge resources to revive the deeply entangled US financial sector while policy options are running out. The weak external sector will impede a faster recovery, and the lower commodity prices are not helping either. Banks are becoming more cautious as bad loans could rise soon, limiting the flow of funds to firms. The services sector will be the pillar of strength amidst a glum manufacturing sector. It is certain that Malaysia's growth will slide into a technical recession in the first half of '09, as it takes the hit from the knock-on effects of a flagging global economy. Malaysia may not regain more strength until the global economy is back on track, which is going to be at a disappointingly slow pace.

In view of the deep declines in macro indicators, the fragile business and consumer confidence, and the still dismal sectoral indices, we have revised Malaysia's growth forecast for 2009 downwards to -4.2 per cent, from -2.2 per cent earlier. If exports and FDI shrink severely, the downturn could be more damaging. We have also downgraded the 2010 growth forecast to 2.8 per cent, from 3.3 per cent previously, in anticipation of a gradual or a ''u-shaped'' global recovery.

source:Malaysian Institute of Economic Research

Economy 2009: 10 key forecasts

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 22:21:00 +0000

There are several key elements affecting the overall economy, and the stability or otherwise of each can be integral to your business’s viability for the year ahead. JAMES THOMSON surveys the likely scenarios.

Australian entrepreneurs have started 2009 with one word ringing in their ears: Recession.

Last year we watched as financial markets across the globe went into freefall, but this year the real economy looks set to suffer, as households stop spending, workers get the sack, and businesses are pushed to the brink of collapse.

It’s going to be rough; but there are still some bright spots for canny companies. Export markets should hold up well, the housing sector looks set for modest growth, and interest rates will keep falling.

To help you steer through the mire, SmartCompany has compiled the 10 crucial economic forecasts for your business in 2009.

1. Economic growth

So will we actually fall into a recession as defined by two periods of negative GDP growth? Almost certainly. Most economists believe the economy contracted in the December quarter of 2008 (we’ll get the official confirmation of this in February) and is also likely to contract in the first three months of 2009.

AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver is tipping a mild recession as households in Australia and around the world stop spending and reduce debt. But he leans towards an improvement in the second half of 2009 or early 2010.

“Global recession during the next six to nine months (will be) made worse as households in rich countries reduce debt levels. However some sort of recovery should start to become visible during the second half, or at least in 2010. Some of the conditions for global recovery are falling into place, such as falling oil prices, falling inflation, falling bond yields and fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

Most economists are expecting Australia’s GDP will grow between 0.2% and 1.5% in 2009, compared with growth of around 2.25% in 2008. The outlook for 2010 is somewhat better, with economists tipping GDP growth of between 1.7% and 2.5%.

2. Unemployment

The biggest question mark over these economic growth forecasts is the unemployment rate. If unemployment were to rise sharply from the current level of 4.4%, then households will be hit hard and the recession could be deeper than first expected. Stephen Walters, chief economist at JP Morgan, describes households as the Achilles heel of the Australian economy.

“After an extended spending splurge, households embarked on a period of austerity in early 2008. Confidence since has collapsed, owing to plunging equity prices and the onset of global recession, [and] the main headwind for households currently is rising unemployment.”

Walters expects the unemployment rate to double to 9% by the end of 2010, while Westpac chief economist Bill Evans is far more optimistic, forecasting the unemployment rate will rise to 5.3% by the end of 2009 and 6.1% by the end of 2010.

3. Business investment

The key to just how far the unemployment rate rises will be whether businesses are willing to continue to invest and employ. While most economists agree business is far better placed (mainly thanks to lower debt levels) than in previous recessions, difficulties in securing credit and falling commodity prices have severely dented confidence.

“If, as we expect is happening in the US, businesses change their operating model from profit maximisation to debt minimisation and cash hoarding, then Australia's growth prospects are precarious,” Evans says. “Businesses would persist in delaying investment and hiring, which would in turn intensify households' concerns about job prospects.”

Evans is predicting business investment growth of -6% in 2009 and zero in 2010, while Walters is predicting a fall from 11.4% in 2008 to -5.1% in 2009 and -7.8% in 2010. But it is worth noting that there are clear risks that the slump in business investment could be far greater – as Evans points out, business investment fell by 20% in 1990 and 1991 during the last recession.

4. Public sector spending

Governments around Australia have valiantly attempted to pick up the slack from the fall in household and government spending. “We anticipate a nearly 7% rise in public spending in real terms in 2008 as the central Government deploys the federal budget surplus,” Walters says.

As well as direct handouts and tax breaks for individuals, governments around the nation are set to launch aggressive infrastructure spending plans to stimulate activity and create jobs. But that won’t necessarily be easy, as Stephen Halmarick, managing director of economic and market analysis at Citi Australia, points out. “The challenge will be to have the projects up and running as soon as possible – this won’t be easy – (and) ensure the projects are ‘worthwhile’.” Another challenge for state governments will be getting funding for projects given the tight credit markets.

5. Interest rates

The big question with interest rates is; how low can they go? The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates hard over the final few months of 2008, taking the official cash rate from 7.25% to 4.25% between September and December.

Most economists are tipping the official cash rate will be cut to 3.5% by March 2009 (which implies cuts are likely in February and March) although it is clear that the official rate could fall further. “Given that the flow of economic data for the global economy continues to deteriorate, and our forecast of recession in Australia, we expect the Australian cash rate to be lowered to 3% by March 2009,” Citi’s Halmarick writes.

6. Housing market

The housing market should get some sort of boost from sharply lower interest rates and the stimulus created by the beefing up of the first home buyers’ grant. On top of this, it’s worth noting that Australia’s housing market remains clearly undersupplied, with Westpac’s Evans estimating the shortage has reached around 140,000 dwellings – almost a full year's production.

“While Westpac's forecast of a solid recovery in dwelling investment in 2009 may prove to be over optimistic, there seems little chance that the style of collapse in residential investment that we have seen in previous recessions will occur in 2009 or 2010.”

JP Morgan’s Walters is tipping a 2% rise in dwelling investment in 2009.

7. The Australian dollar

The rapid fall in the dollar has put huge pressure on Australian business, with a recent survey from Dun & Bradstreet revealing 70% of firms have been negatively affected by the dollar’s slide. Unfortunately, the Aussie dollar looks set to fall further as the RBA cuts rates. ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake expects the dollar to be trading at around US55c by the end of 2009. That could force many Australian companies to put their prices up even further in 2009.

8. Trade

While the dollar will help exporters, the onset of a global recession and lower demand for Australian commodities (particularly resources) will result in exports falling but not collapsing –Walters is tipping a 4% fall in export volumes. On the flip side, imports are likely to fall as a result of sagging consumer spending. Import prices are likely to rise due to the falling Australian dollar.

9. Inflation/deflation

The war on inflation appears to be well and truly won, with most economists predicting inflation will fall rapidly, hitting the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3% by the middle of 2009. In fact, AMP’s Oliver believes deflation may be more of a problem, as he explained in this SmartCompany article. If the global recession is particularly deep and prolonged, Oliver may just be right.

10. China

Many of the forecasts outlined above will depend on what happens to the global economy, and particularly the economy of China, Australia’s largest trading partner and second largest export destination. If China’s economy is to slow dramatically, Australia’s economic downturn could be far worse than first thought.

Then again, if China can rebound, Australia will be a key beneficiary. Su-Lin Ong, senior economist and fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets, expects the authorities will have little choice but to stimulate the economy and prevent a rise in Chinese unemployment and social unrest.

“The challenges are considerable, but China ultimately remains on a long run upward trend as it urbanises, industrialises, and lifts its living standards,” she says. “Resource-rich Australia remains a key beneficiary.”

China’s rapid growth propelled Australia’s economy to great heights in the last decade. Let’s hope there is some fire in the dragon yet.

Climate Policy Options and the World Trade Organization

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 02:05:00 +0000

Abstract

This paper examines whether the climate policy options policymakers are contemplating are compatible with core principles of the world trading system set forth in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and Appellate Body decisions. The authors argue that border measures—both import restrictive measures and export subsidies—contemplated in US climate bills and the climate policies of other countries stand a fair chance of being challenged in the WTO. Given the prospect of foreseeable conflicts with WTO rules, the authors suggest that key WTO members should attempt to negotiate a new code that delineates a large “green space” for measures that are designed to limit GHG emissions both within the member country and globally. By “green space,” the authors mean policy space for climate measures that are imposed in a manner broadly consistent with core WTO principles even if a technical violation of WTO law could occur. To encourage WTO negotiating efforts along these lines, the authors recommend a time-limited “peace clause” to be adopted into climate legislation of major emitting countries. The peace clause would suspend the application of border measures or other extraterritorial controls for a defined period while WTO negotiations are under way.

source:http://www.economics-ejournal.org

Obama: Health overhaul key to economic recovery

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 16:20:00 +0000

WASHINGTON – Using better-than-expected jobs numbers to press his top domestic priority, President Barack Obama is arguing that overhauling the health care system is essential to the country's economic well-being.

Republicans countered that the high unemployment rate — 9.4 percent in July — shows how families and businesses are struggling and that Obama's reliance on a large government role in expanding health coverage is the wrong approach.

A net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June as the U.S. tries to pull out from the worst recession since World War II.

"We've begun to put the brakes on this recession and ... the worst may be behind us," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address Saturday. He cited Friday's Labor Department report that showed a dip in unemployment, but said, "We must do more than rescue our economy from this immediate crisis. We must rebuild it stronger than before."

He added: "We must lay a new foundation for future growth and prosperity, and a key pillar of a new foundation is health insurance reform."

It's a pitch that comes as the Democratic-controlled Congress struggles to write a health care plan that meets Obama's goals of expanding coverage to millions of uninsured while reining in exploding costs.

"So far they have produced a measure that they cannot sell even to their own members," Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell said in a jab at majority Democrats. "The only thing bipartisan, so far, is the opposition."

With lawmakers embarking on a monthlong summer break, opponents and supporters of various proposals under consideration are waging fierce campaigns. Obama is redoubling his effort to explain his positions to a public that polls say is becoming increasingly wary he can deliver on his promise to revamp health care.

The president argued that Congress was close to finalizing "real health insurance reform" but, as he has for weeks now, he warned against listening to opponents who he said were spewing misleading information and outlandish claims to defeat "the best chance of reform we have ever had."

Obama was getting a boost from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who as first lady led the failed effort in the 1990s to overhaul health care.

In an interview with CNN set to air Sunday, Clinton called Congress' latest work on the issue "a very healthy process," though she acknowledge serious differences in viewpoints that must be bridged.

Even so, she said: "I actually agree that at the end of the day, with all of this negotiation and back and forth, you know, we're going to come up with something" and "my hope is that it's going to be meaningful enough to make a difference ... on the cost side."

Countering the Democratic position, Bob McDonnell, the Republican nominee for Virginia governor, argued that the new Labor Department report was "yet another reminder that families and small businesses are struggling as unemployment remains high."

In the GOP's response address, McDonnell sought to draw distinctions between Republicans and Democrats on economic and health care policy.

"As Republicans, we believe you create jobs by keeping taxes and regulation low, and litigation at a minimum. Americans succeed when government puts in place positive policies that encourage more freedom, and more opportunity," he said.

McDonnell also said that, unlike Democrats, Republicans are committed to helping the uninsured — "not through nationalizing the system with a costly government-run plan, but rather by supporting free-market incentives and helping small-business owners make coverage more accessible and affordable, and ensuring that Americans can keep their individual private policies."

source:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090808/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_health_care

Global recession coming to an end

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 16:25:00 +0000

HONG KONG, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- Leading indicators suggest that the global recession is coming to an end and the world economy is on the road to a policy-induced recovery, a senior economist of the Moody's Economy.com said in a latest report.

"The OECD's composite leading indicators signal that the worst is over," Tu Packard said in the global outlook report released Friday by Moody's Economy.com, the research unit of Moody's Corporation, which is independent of Moody's Investors Service.

The OECD refers to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Packard said he saw significant improvement in the world economic map in July, as compared with that in January.

Ample liquidity provided by central banks has helped stabilize the financial markets and credit conditions and bank liquidity has been improving, he said.

In Asia, China and India are again picking up growth momentum and are the first to recover from the impacts of the global financial turmoil and economic slowdown. Indonesia and Bangladesh are still members of the expanding growth club.

Turkey and South Korea, which enjoyed broad-based growth in the second quarter, are projected to have an early recovery. South Korea and other industrialized Asian economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in the electronics industry.

But Japan remains in the slowdown phase, still troubled with high unemployment and massive overcapacity in manufacturing.

In the Middle East, Egypt and Syria are still growing.

In Latin America, the recession will be brief and mild thanks to the help of monetary expansion and increased government spending on infrastructure.

The Eurozone gross domestic product is forecast to contract by over 4 percent this year, but the seasonally adjusted pace of decline will slow in the second half.

Most notably, China has been trying to shift its growth drivers and deploying vast resources to strengthen domestic demand and further develop infrastructure, including green technologies. Household spending is holding up well, with retail sales growth averaging about 15 percent year on year.

The import composition also shows China's effort to shift to domestic demand-led growth. Moreover, it is also contributing to the recovery of other economies with its demand for raw materials resulting from increased spending on infrastructure.

"This ... also helped spur industrial production" in Taiwan as well as South Korea, Japan and Germany, Packard said in the report.

The Chinese locomotive will help shore up the world economy for a time. Nevertheless, a strong global recovery will only take place when the United States economy starts to grow again in earnest, which will depend on easing credit conditions.

Packard said the main downside risks have to do with the still fragile financial sector, especially non-performing loans extended by Europe to East Europe, and that the influenza A/H1N1 was also a source of further uncertainties.

The industrial revolution

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:24:00 +0000

The first economist in the true meaning of the word was the Scotsman Adam Smith (1723-1790). He defined the elements of a national economy: products are offered at a natural price generated by the use of competition - supply and demand - and the division of labour. He maintained that the basic motive for free trade is human self interest. The so-called self interest hypothesis became the anthropological basis for economics. Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) transferred the idea of supply and demand to the problem of overpopulation. The United States of America became the place where millions of expatriates from all European countries were searching for free economic evolvement. In Europe wild capitalism started to replace the system of mercantilism (today: protectionism) and led to economic growth. The period today is called industrial revolution because the system of production and division of labour enabled the mass production of goods.

source: wikipedia.org

What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Planned Economic System?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 22:59:00 +0000

The advantages of a planned economy are that the high degree of control leads to a high level of stability in the system which means that an investor will not lose his money due to some sudden downturn and the changes are quite predictable. The entire system conforms to certain standard which means that everything is uniform which helps establish more control. In a planned economy, the individual efforts are directed towards a certain goal by the restrictions which mean that all the energy can be focused towards achieving a specific economic and social goal of the government. It can eliminate consumerism and luxuries much easily.

Some of the disadvantages of a planned economy are that since the production does not take into account what the consumers want; shortages and over supplies become quite common. The planned economy does not operate a commercial stand point so even if the production systems are efficient, there may be no demand for the goods abroad that would earn foreign exchange. There is no incentive for innovation as the consumers must buy a specific type of product; they can not try new things. At the individual level, people do not have freedom to live their lives as they want and they can not choose what they want to eat or wear and many people move to other countries.