Econolytix http://www.econolytix.com The Art and Science of Economic Analysis Mon, 16 Jan 2012 01:47:45 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 is Ford “quality 1”? (The stock that is!) http://www.econolytix.com/is-ford-quality-1-the-stock-that-is/ http://www.econolytix.com/is-ford-quality-1-the-stock-that-is/#comments Mon, 16 Jan 2012 01:47:45 +0000 Dean Gittleson http://www.econolytix.com/?p=273 Judging from my email this morning, a many of you are interested on my opinions on various stocks.  As I said in my last post, anything written here is for discussion purposes only and you should discuss your trading with the appropriate professionals before entering any positions.  Okay, disclaimer done.

I base my trading on finding fundamentally good stocks and waiting for the best near-term buying opportunity given my desired holding period.  I look at daily and weekly data, calculate underlying trends and cycles, projecting my calculations into the future to locate the best potential entry timing.  I update the analysis day by day until I buy the stock or decide to eliminate it from consideration.

So what about Ford.

Ford has been on a solid upswing since 12/19/2011 when it closed at $10.02.  Price action over the last few days provides evidence that the uptrend is losing steam.  I believe Ford has reached a cyclical top at roughly $12.00 and from Friday will move down into a trough about 1/23/2012.  Look for support around $11.00 and if the decline is steeper at $10.30.

So let’s watch together and see what happens.

]]> http://www.econolytix.com/is-ford-quality-1-the-stock-that-is/feed/ 0 Is it Time to buy SPY? http://www.econolytix.com/266/ http://www.econolytix.com/266/#comments Sat, 14 Jan 2012 06:03:55 +0000 Dean Gittleson http://www.econolytix.com/?p=266 Over the last thirty years I’ve developed a fascination with the financial markets. I have traded equities, options and futures and have developed a process to selecting and trading various instruments. Occasionally I’m asked my opinions about the stock market in general or about individual instruments in particular. Over the next few weeks I will discuss my philosophies and methods that I use to evaluate a particular opportunity.

****Please note that these discussions are purely for fun and any reader should consult professionals for specific advice. Nothing contained herein should be considered a recommendation.****

Today I was asked a question about the short-term prospect of the SPY ETF. Today’s close of 128.84 is the highest close this year and near a point of resistance of 129.45 set October 27, 2011. Is this a good time to buy?

First, time frame is important to consider. In this case the trader likes to keep positions for two weeks to a month.

Markets move up and down periodically peaking. Based on a holding period of thirty days or so the market is at or near a peak. From here the market might decline with a trough occuring around January 23rd. Potential points of support are 126.10, 125.05 and 120.85.

I would wait to see if a trough does occur about January 20th before I would consider buy the SPY.

In a future post I will discuss my rationale.

]]> http://www.econolytix.com/266/feed/ 0 Market Update Dec 2 2011 http://www.econolytix.com/market-update-dec-2-2011/ http://www.econolytix.com/market-update-dec-2-2011/#comments Sat, 03 Dec 2011 06:43:13 +0000 Loren Nason http://www.econolytix.com/?p=257 here is a snapshot

]]> http://www.econolytix.com/market-update-dec-2-2011/feed/ 0 Why not Huntsman? http://www.econolytix.com/why-not-huntsman/ http://www.econolytix.com/why-not-huntsman/#comments Wed, 30 Nov 2011 21:00:36 +0000 Dean Gittleson http://www.econolytix.com/why-not-huntsman/ Bachmann and Perry have withered under scrutiny. With Cain most likely dropping out of the race and Paul having foreign policy opinions that make him unelectable, what GOP candidate is the most reliably conservative besides Rick Santorum?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69231.htm

]]> http://www.econolytix.com/why-not-huntsman/feed/ 0 I’m Back http://www.econolytix.com/im-back/ http://www.econolytix.com/im-back/#comments Tue, 29 Nov 2011 07:23:52 +0000 Dean Gittleson http://www.econolytix.com/?p=253 It’s great to be back updating this blog. There are so many things going on in the world that it’s impossible not to be consumed with thoughts and perspectives. Over my lifetime, I have accumulated friendships with very interesting people. My aim is to pass along the interesting snippets that come across my desk and to add commentary where appropriate. My goal is to stimulate thought and provide a forum where those who would like to contribute can. I humbly appreciate your time and look forward to the future. – Dean

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