Economy

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 5, 2026

2026-09-14T11:07:55.815-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 5, 2026:

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Predicted: 206,000

Actual: 206,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

--> Previous Week (revised): 207,000

4-Week Moving Average: 206,000

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-12T02:59:33.608-04:00

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST, 2026:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.1%

Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12-months previous: +5.4%
(prior - revised = +4.8%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.4%

Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12-months previous: +4.7%
(prior - unrevised = +4.7%)

===============================

PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +7.7% (prior = +6.8%)

PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.5% (prior = +4.0%)

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

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CHART: Producer Price Index

Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-11T11:43:18.456-04:00

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During August, 2026: 334.980

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Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

-> Actual: +0.318% (+1.062 points)

Year-on-Year Change: +3.4% (+11.004 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +3.36%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

- > Actual: +0.27% (+0.908 point)

Year-on-Year Change: +2.45% (+8.071 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.48%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

Healthcare
Housing
Clothing
Communications
Education
Transportation
Food and Beverages
Recreation
Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August, 2025: 323.976

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CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending September 4, 2026

2026-09-10T14:57:40.084-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 4, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -1,700,000 Barrels (-0.24%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -120,500,000 Barrels (-14.52%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 709,400,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-08T13:40:49.731-04:00

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for August, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

Actual: 98.7

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Change from Previous Month: -1.10% (-1.1 points.)

Change from A Year Ago: -2.08% (-2.5 points.)

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CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

AUGUST 2026 Update

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The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.

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From The Report:

"...CREDIT MARKETS

In August, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 2 points to a net -2% (seasonally adjusted). This marks the highest level since December 2024. A net 3% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 2 points from July. In August, a net 4% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, unchanged from July. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.5% in August, down 0.4 points from July. Twenty-five percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 2 points from July, and remaining below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

Though still high, the inflation metrics were flat in August. In August, a seasonally adjusted net 31% of owners reported raising average selling prices, unchanged from July but well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 38% reported higher average prices (down 2 points), and 8% reported lower average selling prices (unchanged). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, unchanged from July. This is also above its historical average (net 22%), though with a smaller gap than actual prices. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem
picked up in August. Sixteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 2 points from July and ranking the second top issue, tied with taxes. August’s reading remains elevated, with the historical average at 7%.

QUOTES on INFLATION

“Outside of the challenge of getting good productive help, inflation has been the hardest to navigate.”
– Manufacturing, IN

“The increase in the costs of aluminum, steel, and other raw materials has raised our inventory costs by more than 40% over our levels at the beginning of 2025.”
– Manufacturing, MO

"The Iran [invasion] and shipping disruptions are greatly affecting agricultural input costs."
-Agriculture, IN

“Labor, chemicals, and taxes are always our biggest expenses, and they all just keep going up with no end in sight. Daunting and scary.”
– Agriculture, NY

“Cost pressures continue, with insurance and labor benefits increasing at a higher rate than supplies, etc. I feel many small businesses are in a wait-and-see mode for further business expansion.”
– Services, OH

“The costs of energy and goods (especially here in Maryland) have increased dramatically. This has impacted our bottom line, which of course impacts pricing, which impacts our customers’ ability to afford us.”
– Services, MD

“The cost of fuel is my number one expense, so this $4.00 and above gas price is really affecting my deliveries. I’ve been absorbing it somewhat by changing my delivery routes, but eventually I’m going to have to increase the cost of things I sell!”
– Wholesale, PA

“The price of energy adversely affects sales.”
– Services, TX

“Input costs have gone up dramatically, particularly for fuel and fertilizer...The financial squeeze is significant! Farmers can’t control prices or weather.”
– Agriculture, OH

LABOR

“The quality of skilled labor is affecting my growth. I have given up on looking. My business is service-based, and the demand for accountants is increasing. If I could find the personnel, I could easily double, if not triple, my income.”
– Professional/business services, VA

“My problem is that no one wants to work. I have advertised in all the areas I know of, and we have had a total of zero applications. In thirty years of business, this has never happened.”
–Services, TN

“Since 2023, our business has had a hard time hiring employees – good technician mechanics with experience.”
– Services, TX

“It is very difficult to find dental assistants or dental hygienists on a permanent basis.”
– Professional/business services, OR

“Labor is the biggest challenge we face. We need H-2B visas to be more readily available, and we need them to be easier to navigate. Reduce the red tape.” – Agriculture, IN

“We need to bring back and step up trade education in all areas.”
– Services, VT

“Getting control of the minimum wage is a big problem! I am a small business and hire a lot of first time employees. Because I have to start a first timer at $15/hour, there is not much left to reward my long-term employees. Merit raises become a thing of the past.”
– Retail, AZ

“Imports coming into the USA at way below market price and getting employees are a huge problem for agriculture. Many of us would no longer be in business if it was not for the H-2A program.”
– Agriculture, MT

“We need to get rid of the Minnesota Paid Leave program for seasonal and temporary employees.”
– Agriculture, MN

“I own and operate a childcare business. I am seeing my costs increase dramatically, by more than 15% annually, and I am having an increasingly hard time finding staff. Online job postings receive a lot of interest and applications, but only about a third at best respond to interview requests. […]”
– Professional/business services, OH

BUSINESS + ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

“Federal policies are creating unstable economic conditions for small businesses. Customers are uncertain about future economic conditions and thus unwilling to make major investments in future development.”
– Construction, OR

"We are experiencing a slowdown and don't plan to hire more employees at this time. The economic outlook is very uncertain and will likely get worse."
- Professional/business services,

“The opportunities to grow the business are incredible, but the resources [needed] to grow the business are very expensive and very hard to reach for my small business.”
– Retail, OH

"The economy has been very poor since early 2025. The volatility in trade and tariff policies has hurt construction in our area... I am currently in a hold pattern for growing our business because the economic conditions are not favorable now."
- Construction, OR

“Although our business is steady, we have found that our customers are cash-poor and using credit for their transactions. In the end, this cuts down on our sales as our patrons have less money in the end. […]”
– Retail, PA

"The impact of cost increases due to tariffs and supply chain challenges... is meaningful."
- Retail, NH

"Running a repair shop, we generally judge how busy we are by how far out we are scheduled. Over the last month or two, the schedule has definitely gotten better than the beginning of the summer. Our hope is it continues in that direction, as winter is typically slower."
- Services, MT

“It is hard to grow. We are mostly trying to maintain what we have.”
– Wholesale, PA

“Until the [Iran invasion] started, we were doing great. We had our best month ever in March 2026, and following was a drop of 60%.”
– Services, AZ

“I am awaiting the end of the [Iran invasion] to make some bigger financial decisions for my business.”
– Services, WA

“The business outlook is good as long as the weather is proper for syrup production next spring.
[…]”
– Agriculture, NY..."

=========

Previous Month's SBOI: 99.8

SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 100.8

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Click here to view the full NFIB report

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-04T12:56:32.414-04:00

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for AUGUST, 2026

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Job Cuts Announced During AUGUST, 2026: 52,881

Previous Month: 33,429

> Change from previous month: +58.19% (+19,452 cuts)

--------------

One-Year Previous: 85,979

> Change from one-year previous: -38.5% (-33,098 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...WHY ARE COMPANIES CUTTING?

Restructuring led all reasons for job cuts in August with 16,173 announced during the month, or 31%. It is the highest monthly restructuring since January’s 20,044, and the first month since February that Artificial Intelligence did not lead. So far this year, Restructuring has been cited in 73,649 job cut announcements.

Market and Economic Conditions followed for the month with 15,260 cuts for a total of 105,335. Closings accounted for 6,743 in August and 91,373 for the year.

Artificial Intelligence fell to the fourth-most cited reason with 3,462 cuts in August, its lowest monthly total since December 2025 when 142 cuts were attributed to AI. It ends a five-month run, beginning in March, in which AI was the leading monthly reason. So far this year, AI has been cited in 116,175 job cut announcements, approximately 22% of all cuts, and it remains the leading reason year-to-date..."

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If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
AUGUST 2026 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

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Employment Situation Report for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-04T09:58:20.381-04:00

The Employment Situation Report for August, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: 162,000

Previous Month (revised): +21,000

One-Year Previous: -70,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12-Months Previous: 4.3%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12-Months Previous: 8.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.27% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.2%
Actual: +3.09% (+$1.13)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.56% (+$7.20)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.69% (+$46.20)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.6%
Previous Month: 61.4%
12-Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.4 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

AUGUST 2006 thru AUGUST 2026

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* = The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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ISM Non-Manufacturing (SERVICES) Index for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-03T22:10:01.348-04:00

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing / Services Index (NMI®) for August, 2026:

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Actual: 55.4% (+1.3 points month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 54.1%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

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From Today' Report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in August, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 55.4 percent, the 26th consecutive month in expansion territory..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

"...'General business conditions are positive. The challenges lie in managing through the dynamic nature of the administration’s policies -- tariffs and [Iran invasion] -- that have caused numerous input cost headwinds for suppliers and us.'
[Accommodation + Food Services]

'The bond market pushed 30-year mortgage rates up to 6.67 percent, reducing affordability and moving prospective buyers back to the sidelines. The new-build housing market continues to slow with the selling season coming to a close and the start of the new school year. Rate buydowns and discounts have become the norm instead of the tool to drive traffic.'
[Construction]

'The [Iran invasion] and strain on the oil supplies has resulted in our paying higher cost for fuel. Locally, our economy continues to perform well, and our housing market is solid. We expect our enrollment to remain steady as long as the local economy stays strong.'
[Educational Services]

'Rising health-care costs, regulatory complexity and reimbursement pressure continue to drive a cautious purchasing environment within health insurers. Focus remains on cost management, supplier performance, operational efficiency and risk mitigation, resulting in increased scrutiny of supplier value, contract commitments and strategic investments.'
[Finance + Insurance]

'We received a few communications regarding tariffs that are being refunded. Fewer materials being back-ordered at this time.'
[Health Care + Social Assistance]

'Concerns about market trends, reduced hospital sources of revenue and increasing debt management creating reluctance of our customers to expand.'
[Management of Companies + Support Services]

'Business is picking up and forecast to increase over the next six months.'
[Other Services]

'The stacked Section 301 duties plus the newer forced-labor related tariffs are keeping landed costs elevated and forcing constant TCO recalculation. We are actively dual-sourcing and evaluating nearshoring options, but qualified capacity, lead times and quality consistency are limited for certain specialty materials and components. The results are higher inventory buffers, longer planning cycles, and margin pressure that we can only partially pass through. On the positive side, Florida ports (especially Port Everglades and the broader South Florida gateway) remain relatively fluid compared with the congestion spikes earlier in the year on the West Coast and in Europe.'
[Professional, Scientific + Technical Services]

'The memory shortage is continually getting worse. For devices requiring (memory) cards, inventory is low and prices are high.'
[Retail Trade]

'The electrical distribution industry volume demand and opportunities remain very strong. Commodities-based products of materials like copper, aluminum and polyvinyl chloride continue to have price increases and adjustments on a weekly basis. Geopolitical issues like tariffs continue to impact pricing as well. Supplier capacities are still strained due high market demands.'
[Wholesale Trade]

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Click here to view the complete ISM report

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CHART: ISM Services Index

(NMI®) AUGUST 2026 Update

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CHART: ISM Services Index
12-Month History
AUGUST 2026 Update

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 29, 2026

2026-09-03T10:45:19.781-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 29, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 206,000

Actual: 206,000

4-Week Moving Average: 207,250

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 28, 2026

2026-09-02T14:48:43.385-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 28, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -7,500,000 Barrels (-1.04%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -114,300,000 Barrels (-13.85%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 711,100,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

U.S. Factory Shipments (New Orders) During JULY 2026

2026-09-02T11:25:06.171-04:00

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and New Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for July, 2026:

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Predicted: FLAT

Actual: -6.57% (-45,671,000,000)

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July, 2026 New Orders: $650,001,000,000.
June, 2026 New Orders: $695,672,000,000.

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Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):

+$61,282,000,000 (+10.41%)

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The highlighted percentages represent the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers; not seasonally adjusted.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders

JULY 2026 Update
(seasonally adjusted.)

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Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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ISM Manufacturing Index for AUGUST 2026

2026-09-02T07:50:50.527-04:00

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August 2026:

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Actual: 54.6% (-1.0 point month-on-month)

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Previous month: 55.6%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

"...'The economy is annoying; it is getting in the way of otherwise good business. We are making great new products but struggling to compete when prices escalate due to things like tariffs and the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. I fear that the inflation caused by these factors will lead to lower sales and lower spending power of our customers. Call it inflation! At some point, it leads to an economic downturn or at least an economic pain for many consumers. It’s an uncertain year, our second in a row.'
[Chemical Products]

'For our building products division, profitability is not far off from last year despite economic headwinds, as our specialty products have maintained their market share and sales. Specific to IT, the rising costs in component inputs have caused some budgetary constraints as we plan for the 2027 fiscal year. However, we largely been able to keep costs close to historic consumer price index averages.'
[Chemical Products]

'Supply chain situation, especially in the electronics market, is going through another crisis even bigger and more complicated than during and post COVID-19. That’s mainly due to AI infrastructure and uncertainties in the global market (for oil and other critical supplies) due to war in the Middle East and more complication on trade rules.'
[Computer + Electronic Products]

'Supply markets are increasingly challenging due to inflation and supply availability. Each month has been more difficult than the previous one. Starting to resemble the post-COVID-19 disruptive period.'
[Computer + Electronic Products]

'Prices continue to rise on all goods. Suppliers are noting that energy, steel and labor costs are increasing very quickly. We continue to try to move products around to offset costs. We have moved more products to offshore sources to try to minimize cost impacts.'
[Machinery]

'Photonics, high speed connectors, semiconductors and government orders are expanding significantly. Supply chains domestically and globally are difficult, with increases in lead times and cost.'
[Machinery]

'Commentary this month echoes that of recent months: (1) significant availability/price challenges in commodities heavily consumed by AI, (2) great uncertainty over when the Iran [invasion] will end, and (3) another round of shifting U.S. tariff policy. Despite these tensions, we continue to focus on what we can control, and the market for our products remains strong.'
[Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

'This month is a blur: Steel prices continue to climb as supply diminishes, aluminum is rising after dropping, and there are many holes on the plate side. Demand seems to be a seesaw. Our prediction ability continues to diminish, with the exception that the year will remain difficult until the end.'
[Primary Metals]

'High steel and aluminum prices (due to Section 232 tariffs) continue to make profitability a challenge. Uncertainty over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is at the forefront of many customer conversations. Our industry has also been hit with countervailing and anti-dumping penalties, further raising the cost of equipment.'
[Transportation Equipment]

'Volume is consistent. Our main customer is shifting production from U.S. plants to Mexico plants.'
[Transportation Equipment]..."

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CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

AUGUST 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
AUGUST 2026 Update

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Click here to view the complete ISM report

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JULY 2026

2026-09-01T13:24:49.386-04:00

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for July, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,200,000

Actual: 7,271,000

-------------------------

Previous Month (revised): 7,182,000
Change from Previous Month: +1.24% (+89,000)
One-Year Previous: 7,089,000
Change from One-Year Previous: +2.57% (+182,000)

=============

HIRES: 5,054,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -3.27% (-171,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,056,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.43% (-76,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,666,000

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.98% (-106,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,072,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -1.9% (-98,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People

per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JULY 2011 thru JULY 2026

=============

* = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000.
Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): SECOND / PRELIMINARY Estimate for Q2, 2026

2026-09-01T04:06:45.901-04:00

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its SECOND estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +2.1%

Actual: +1.5%

============

GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

CHART: GDP - Percent Change from Previous Quarter

Q2, 2026 - SECOND ESTIMATE

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Durable Goods Orders During JULY 2026

2026-08-28T05:01:42.473-04:00

The Durable Goods Orders report for July, 2026 was released by the Commerce Department:

================

New Orders: $339,250,000,000

(+$36,709,000,000 [+12.9%]) Year-on-Year

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders

Month-on-Month Change
JULY 2026 UPDATE
(from Seasonally Adjusted Data)

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the y-o-y change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers (NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

================

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 22, 2026

2026-08-28T04:28:29.191-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 22, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 205,000

Actual: 203,000

4-Week Moving Average: 205,500

====================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 21, 2026

2026-08-26T16:12:32.066-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 21, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels (-0.5%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -103,900,000 Barrels (-12.63%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 718,600,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JULY 2026

2026-08-26T10:01:32.095-04:00

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

Actual: +0.2%
> Real PCE: FLAT*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

Actual: +0.4%

> Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.5%
>> Real DPI: +0.4%*

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

PCE Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): -0.1%

Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12-months previous: +3.7%
(prior - unrevised = +3.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.1%

Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12-months previous: +3.3%
(prior - unrevised = +3.3%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending

JULY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF).

=====================

* = Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for JULY 2026

2026-08-25T05:08:45.430-04:00

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July, 2026:

==================

Actual (CFNAI): -0.08

==================

Previous Month (revised): +0.06

3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.04

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

Production and income;
Employment, unemployment, and hours;
Personal consumption and housing; and
Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles

JULY 2026 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators

==================

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JULY 2026

2026-08-25T03:16:57.616-04:00

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for July, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

Actual: 99.8

----------------

Change from Previous Month: +2.46% (+2.4 points.)

Change from A Year Ago: -0.5% (-0.5 point.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

JULY 2026 Update

=========

The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.

=========

From The Report:

"...MEMBER QUOTES

Labor:

“We struggle to find skilled labor/trades.” – Construction, NY

“The ability to find/hire competent workers in the HVAC field is increasingly more difficult year to year. It is absolutely necessary to help promote and fund the mechanical trades, particularly the HVAC trade!” –
Construction, CT

“Labor is a challenge. We currently rely on older or retired help. […]” – Retail, PA

“Very hard to find skilled machinists who still know manual machines.” – Manufacturing, OH

“This is the worst period for hiring skilled labor. I have positions open today that pay well with benefits, but there aren’t any qualified candidates. I have used Indeed, ZipRecruiter, social media, banners, website, etc.”
– Retail, PA

“Finding or having qualified skilled labor applicants is nonexistent.” – Services, SC

“Forty-eight years in business for myself, and the toughest issue has been finding good people to hire and how to compensate them fairly. Health insurance is a disaster – costs more and pays less. Employees want more compensation for less work/production. To keep this trend going we must find easier ways to do tough jobs and charge higher prices with stiff compensation.” – Services, NC

“In the transportation industry it’s very hard right now to find help. I’ve had three trucks out of twelve sitting idle for six months now. I can find drivers, but they aren’t drivers I trust.” – Transportation, IL

“Unskilled labor shortage is our biggest problem. […]” – Agriculture, NC

“We are highly seasonal as a farm and do not have steady income. Every year is different depending on market conditions, crop (apple) size, and import/export options… We have a severe labor shortage, which many of us have turned to the federal H-2A program to meet our needs. Labor is now greater than 50% of our input costs due to the rise in benefits, overtime, paid sick days, and base wage rates.” – Agriculture, NY

“Our biggest problem is that we cannot find qualified, skilled employees.” – Agriculture, MN

“Finding and retaining good employees is our biggest challenge. It has never been easy but declined substantially during COVID, and even though it has improved since then, it is still something that our
manager spends way too much time on and it affects all areas of our business.” – Manufacturing, VA

“Our biggest obstacle is finding technicians with experience. It is also difficult to find office employees. Most [people] we hire off the street do not last. [They] miss a lot of work.” – Construction, AZ

“Engineers generally do not go looking for better jobs as much as [those] in other fields. They tend to sit tight and not rock the boat. We are trying to hire an experienced engineer or two, but they just aren’t out there. So we are being forced to hire engineers out of school or inexperienced.” – Professional/business services, OH

“Biggest issue in our industry is the lack of skilled workers on our job sites, in our fabrication shops, and with our suppliers.” – Construction, IN

“Business is good. Hoping for everything to get better and for costs not to continue to rise as they have been. The labor workforce is getting slim, and [it] seems like quality people are getting harder to find in
labor fields.” – Services, TX

“We have a weird situation where I can get more unskilled labor than I need. But I am unable to fill a skilled operator with higher pay, better hours, and better benefits. No one is even willing to accept a promotion.” –Agriculture, IL

Inflation:

“Farming is in a pinch right now with the high prices of our inputs fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, and taxes).” – Agriculture, IN

“Labor, fuel, and insurance have all gone up. [We are] having a hard time raising rates to keep up with the cost of doing business.” – Transportation, CA

“We have a trucking company and a grain farm. The cost of fuel alone is killing us. Fertilizer for the farm is out of this world. Something has to give soon or we’re going to be the ones giving up everything.” –
Transportation, PA

“In farming we are experiencing very high input costs coupled with low commodity prices which have impacted our margins! Farm equipment prices have increased by over 300% in the past 15 years, making it
almost impossible to purchase new equipment. The farmer suffers while we purchase our supplies/equipment from monopolies that are making record profits. Those companies that purchase our commodities have become monopolies as well!” – Agriculture, TX

“Worried about the economy due to inflation. Our guests do not have the disposable income they had a few years ago. […]” – Services, OH

“Most businesses can at least pass on increases for products. Agriculture saw huge increases in fuel and fertilizer costs. Our commodities are mainly priced by the Chicago Board of Trade, and I have no way of
passing on these increased expenses, leaving myself and the larger agriculture community with the very real possibility of negative margins on our 2026 crops.” – Agriculture, PA

“The costs of materials and employees are up.” – Construction, UT

“Inflation is an issue – not sure how much inventory to order. Taxes force business to make out-of-ordinary decisions. Inflation is a detriment to employees – can’t pay them enough nowadays and getting harder to pass expenses along. Economy appears strong on Wall Street but weak on Main Street.” – Retail, IL

“The cost of interest, insurance, power (gas/electric), supplies, and vehicle gas is drowning my business. Small businesses need help!” – Services, MI

“The marine industry has doubled standard inflation. Over the past seven years, with many OEMs adding another 5-7% for the 2027 model year. We are pricing ourselves out of the market with the other economic pressures (high interest rates and debt, high grocery prices, high fuel prices, etc.).” – Retail, OR

“Unfortunately, the cost to operate has almost reached the point that we cannot make a profit because labor and parts markup cannot keep up with the expenses of all insurances, taxes, overhead, payroll, truck payment, and shop payment.” – Services, AL

“The economy seems to be in a weird, uncertain place currently. People are spending, but wages are moving slow.” – Construction, IL

“The inflation caused by tariffs has significantly affected our business. Our customer accounts are struggling to pay their invoices, which amounts to approximately 20-30% of our gross profit.” – Retail, TN

Business Conditions:

“Our business has been slow the past two years due to inflation of gas, oil, and groceries. And people are choosing not to repair their swimming pools, which is not considered a priority, or having their iron gates
and fences built.” – Services, AR

“Overall business has been steady and very busy.” – Manufacturing, OH

“The economy is killing us. Work is slow.” – Transportation, OH

“There is a noticeable shift in customers’ behavior – much more price sensitive and questioning all invoices. Many of our large customers have moved out of the area or gone out of business. This leaves fewer customers for us and our competitors to service (we are a regional B2B provider). There is not enough business for us all, so we are working hard to keep or gain as much as we can.” – Wholesale, NY

“Insurance premiums, fuel and utilities, and a lack of skilled labor are having a negative impact on our business.” – Services, OH

“The economy is affecting our bottom line. The trend in healthcare, with insurers paying for less and putting more burden on consumers, is the biggest problem facing all healthcare providers.” – Professional/business services, VA

“Business is fairly robust in our area. The large majority of our clients (small businesses) are profitable.” – Professional/business services, GA

“The economy has definitely slowed business. If it’s a question of filling up your car with gas to go to work, putting food on the table, or buying a new appliance just because you want a change in your kitchen, I think we all know which is coming in last. Appliances are replaced when they break down and then mostly from the least expensive place (big-box stores).” – Retail, IL

“Our business is down 15.5% year to date from last year and 28% down from our 5-year average. Rising costs of materials and freight have made us go up in our pricing. Competition is tough as everyone is
willing to go down on their margins to get customers. Our walk-in traffic has diminished tremendously. Our expenses have skyrocketed, and insurance and health insurance are now unaffordable.” – Retail, TX

“Things are slow but the same! Clients are passing away or thinking they can do our job themselves. But they always come back because they realize they can’t or they get in trouble with the different agencies for doing the paperwork or reports wrong. It’s a cycle!” – Professional/business services, AZ

“Business is good, but state regulations are making it harder. Also, the prices of goods are out of reach for most of our customers.” – Construction, NY

Sales:

“I have found it harder to increase sales above what we have. Although we have grossed more year to date, we are basically operating at a zero-profit margin. Overall the cost of everything has increased, in response we raised our prices – but are just breaking even.” – Services, CA

“The internet (do-it-yourself videos) has impacted my bottom line.” – Services, OH

“Retail sales numbers continue to decline. Customer count is down as more people are purchasing online and not visiting brick-and-mortar stores. Landscape division numbers are down. Customers have less money to spend due to inflation; customer confidence is down.” – Retail, IA

Insurance:

“Our insurance costs have been a burden for several years. Increasing at a rate we can barely keep up with – most notably auto. And windstorms are also a concern. I believe the whole Texas costs (including Houston) should all share this expense, as this whole area is impacted by hurricanes.” – Manufacturing, TX

“Health insurance out of control.” – Professional/business services, OH
============
CREDIT MARKETS

In July, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 1 point to a net -4% (seasonally adjusted). A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 2 points from June. In July, a net 4% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 1 point from June. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.9% in July, up 0.5 point from June’s lowest level since October 2022. Twenty-seven percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, up 5 points from June, but remaining below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

Though still high, the inflation metrics showed substantial improvement in July. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points from June to a net 31% (seasonally adjusted), after four consecutive months of increases. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 40% reported higher average prices (down 7 points), and 8% reported lower average selling prices (up 1 point). As actual price increases decreased in July, so did the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem fell for the first time this year. Fourteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, down 7 points from June’s highest reading since October 2024. Inflation now ranks as the third top problem..."

=========

Previous Month's SBOI: 97.4

SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 100.3

=========

Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

Leading Economic Index for JULY 2026

2026-08-24T15:40:07.160-04:00

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July, 2026:

==============

Index for July, 2026: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Actual: +0.2% (+0.2 point Month-on-Month)

Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.71% (+0.7 point)

==============

LEI for June, 2026: 99.3
LEI for May, 2026: 99.4
LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
LEI for December, 2025: 99.4
LEI for November, 2025: 99.6
LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
LEI for September, 2025: 98.3
LEI for August, 2025: 98.5
LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
LEI for June, 2025: 98.8

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
Building permits for new private housing
The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Average weekly manufacturing hours
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JULY 2026 UPDATE

==============

From Today's Report:

"....'The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 114.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in June. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5% over the six months between January and July 2026, after remaining flat over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month..."

==============

Click Here to view the Conference Board report.

==============

Housing Starts During JULY 2026

2026-08-24T00:48:39.838-04:00

The U.S. Commerce Department released its Housing Starts report for July, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

Actual: 1,239,000

Month-on-Month Change: -12.44% (-176,000 New Units)

Year-on-Year Change: -13.48% (-193,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,374,000

Actual: 1,443,000

Month-on-Month Change: +5.02% (+69,000 New Permits)

Year-on-Year Change: +3.07% (+43,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JULY, 2026 UPDATE

=================

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 15, 2026

2026-08-21T02:53:00.000-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 15, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 205,000

Actual: 206,000

4-Week Moving Average: 204,000

====================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 14, 2026

2026-08-20T00:50:00.000-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 14, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -900,000 Barrels (-0.12%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -101,900,000 Barrels (-12.37%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 722,200,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During July 2026

2026-08-19T20:14:23.888-04:00

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for July, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% Month-on-Month (M/M)

Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.1%

--> Y/Y Previous: +1.1%

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% M/M

Y/Y : +1.2%

--> Y/Y Previous: +1.1%

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual: 76.3%

Y/Y : +1.2%

--> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
JULY 2026 UPDATE

===============

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============