Economy

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 17, 2026

2026-07-22T20:36:31.859-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 17, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,100,000 Barrels (-0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,400,000 Barrels (-11.98%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 723,100,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

Housing Starts During JUNE 2026

2026-07-20T20:43:52.725-04:00

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for June, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,199,000

Actual: 1,427,000

Month-on-Month Change: +19.02% (+228,000 New Units)

Year-on-Year Change: +3.48% (+48,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,410,000

Actual: 1,367,000

Month-on-Month Change: -3.05% (-43,000 New Permits)

Year-on-Year Change: -2.29% (-32,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JUNE, 2026 UPDATE

=================

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD / FINAL Estimate for Q1, 2026

2026-07-20T19:18:56.259-04:00

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its THIRD / FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +0.5%

Actual: +2.1%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP

Q1, 2026 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

============

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

============

Leading Economic Index for JUNE 2026

2026-07-20T18:45:26.170-04:00

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June, 2026:

==============

Index for June, 2026: 99.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)

Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.3% (+0.3 point)

==============

LEI for May, 2026: 99.3
LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
LEI for December, 2025: 99.4
LEI for November, 2025: 99.6
LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
LEI for September, 2025: 98.3
LEI for August, 2025: 98.5
LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
LEI for June, 2025: 98.8

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
Building permits for new private housing
The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Average weekly manufacturing hours
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

==============

From Today's Report:

"...While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories...

...'Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year-on-year GDP growth for 2026.'..."

==============

Click Here to view the Conference Board report.

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for JUNE 2026

2026-07-16T15:02:42.811-04:00

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for JUNE, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.02% (+$7,779,000,000)

Actual: +0.22% (+$1,677,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

Est. Retail Sales During June, 2026: $768,553,000,000

Year-On-Year Change: +6.72% (+$48,389,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru June 2026
JUNE 2026 UPDATE
=================

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.

=================

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 11, 2026

2026-07-16T13:21:48.426-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 11, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

Actual: 208,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

--> Previous Week (revised): 216,000

4-Week Moving Average: 214,250

====================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 10, 2026

2026-07-15T17:09:48.165-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 10, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -4,600,000 Barrels (-0.63%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,700,000 Barrels (-11.97%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 726,200,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2026

2026-07-15T16:06:22.183-04:00

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

Actual: -0.3-%

Change from 12-months previous: +5.5%
(prior - unrevised = +6.5%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.8%

Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12-months previous: +5.1%
(prior - unrevised = +5.1%)

===============================

PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +7.9% (prior = +10.4%)

PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.6% (prior = +4.9%)

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JUNE 2026

2026-07-14T20:51:03.892-04:00

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for June, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 97.0

Actual: 97.4

----------------

Change from Previous Month: +2.2% (+2.1 point.)

Change from A Year Ago: -1.22% (-1.2 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

JUNE 2026 Update

=========

The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.

=========

From the Report:

"...CREDIT MARKETS

In June, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions fell 2 points to a net -5% (seasonally adjusted). A net 3% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from May.

In June, a net 5% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 1 point from May.

The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.4% in June, down 0.4 points from May and the lowest level since October 2022. Twenty-two percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 5 points from May.

June’s reading is 12 points below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 2 points from May to a net 38% (seasonally adjusted). This is the fourth consecutive month that actual price increases have risen, marking the highest level since January 2023. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 47% reported higher average prices (up 1 point), and 7% reported lower average selling prices (unchanged). Whileactual price increases rose in June, the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future declined. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 32% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 2points from May’s highest reading since July 2022. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem rose for the fourth consecutive month in June. Twenty-one percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 3 points from May and marking the highest reading since October 2024. Inflation ranks as the top problem..."

=========

Previous Month's SBOI: 95.3

SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 98.6

=========

Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JUNE 2026

2026-07-14T14:11:15.232-04:00

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During June, 2026: 333.952

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

-> Actual: -0.35% (-1.171 points)

Year-on-Year Change: +3.53% (+11.391 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +4.25%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

- > Actual: +0.01% (+0.036 points)

Year-on-Year Change: +2.59% (+8.518 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.85%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

Healthcare
Housing
Clothing
Communications
Education
Transportation
Food and Beverages
Recreation
Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June, 2025: 322.561

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
JUNE 2026 Update

========================================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

========================================

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 3, 2026

2026-07-10T17:54:24.579-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 3, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,200,000 Barrels (-0.44%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,200,000 Barrels (-11.85%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 730,800,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

Employment Situation Report for JUNE 2026

2026-07-10T14:38:09.855-04:00

The Employment Situation Report for June, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +57,000

Previous Month (revised): +129,000

One-Year Previous: -20,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 8.1%
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.35% (+$0.13)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.52% (+$1.28)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.35% (+$4.46)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.82% (+$47.54)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5%
Previous Month: 61.8%
12-Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

JUNE 2006 thru JUNE 2026

===================

* = The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

ISM Non-Manufacturing (SERVICES) Index for JUNE 2026

2026-07-10T14:27:00.000-04:00

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing / Services Index (NMI®) for June, 2026:

==========

Actual: 54.0% (-0.5 point month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month: 54.5%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From Today' Report:

"... Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

"We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging. The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.”
[Accommodation & Food Services]

“Extreme drought in Virginia is creating financial problems for farmers and the agricultural industry. Dramatically reduced spring crops harvest has created significant cost increases in feed expense. The barley grain crop was nearly totally lost due to the early hot weather and spring freeze. High fertilizer cost increases due to the Iran invasion and increased freight cost has driven cost for crops above breakeven levels on many farms. Many dairy farmers are struggling with crop shortages, high input cost and below milk price breakeven. The financial stress from higher cost due to the Iran invasion and drought-related forage losses has resulted in decreased spending in the agricultural sector.”
[Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]

“In general, our company (commercial construction) is doing well. Pipeline is healthy for current and future work. Material pricing is higher and lead times on certain components in support of data center piping is elongating.”
[Construction]

“In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions, including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.”
[Finance & Insurance]

“Despite economic headwinds like persistent inflation, patient volumes and overall business activity remain strong reflected mainly by outstanding revenue performance. Supply chains remain resilient as well; back orders are at a historical low, and few if any critical products are experiencing difficulties. Labor is steady, as we continue to add full-time workers while the forecast remains positive. Given the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, we are beginning to hear that cost of goods increases are on the horizon but have yet to materialize. Cost increases are in focus for the next quarter.”
[Health Care & Social Assistance]

“From a strategic supply chain perspective, we are seeing increased complexity in managing total landed cost due to tariffs, import/export constraints and duty recovery mechanisms, requiring more proactive coordination across sourcing, logistics and compliance teams. Recent discussions internally also highlight the impact of tariff programs and duty drawback evaluations on purchasing strategies.”
[Mining]

“Demand remains strong in infrastructure, environmental, and resilience projects, while procurement faces persistent labor inflation, supplier capacity constraints, and regulatory complexity—particularly in California and other high-cost markets. Labor-driven categories remain elevated despite easing goods inflation. The impact is higher rates, longer lead times, and increased importance of capacity assurance vs. lowest-cost sourcing.”
[Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]

“Business has been very strong during what is usually a less active time of the year. Pricing is stable, and employment just where we want it to be. Supply chain strong with no challenges.”
[Retail Trade]

“The utility industry continues to experience extended lead times, supply-chain constraints, material shortages, and pricing volatility. As a result, suppliers are often limiting quotation validity periods, with many RFQs carrying expiration dates as short as 24 hours. These conditions require timely evaluation and procurement decisions to mitigate the risk of price changes and availability issues.”
[Utilities]

“We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.”
[Wholesale Trade]

==========

Click here to view the complete ISM report

==========

CHART: ISM Services Index
(NMI®) JUNE 2026 Update

==========

CHART: ISM Services Index
12-Month History
JUNE 2026 Update

==========

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 4, 2026

2026-07-09T23:06:00.000-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 4, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

Actual: 215,000

4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

ISM Manufacturing Index for JUNE 2026

2026-07-03T23:08:00.000-04:00

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for June, 2026:

=========

Actual: 53.3% (-0.7 point month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 54.0%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the sixth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

“The conflict in Iran has impacted pricing in every category of raw materials. Especially, items that have a heavy concentration of oil in the components like our adhesives.”
[Chemical Products]

“Continued pressure from conflict in Middle East is resulting in a more conservative approach to capital expenditures. We are seeing an increase in consumables and services purchasing from sectors like chemical analysis, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and environmental and pharmaceutical testing.”
[Computer & Electronic Products]

“General purchasing operations are being shaped by (1) moderating but still elevated inflation, (2) higher interest rates and (3) continued policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and global trade. While overall economic growth remains resilient, it is slowing as consumer spending weakens under pressure from higher costs for energy and essential goods, reducing demand visibility and increasing cost sensitivity for buyers. Meanwhile, supply chains have stabilized compared to prior years but remain structurally complex, with trade policy volatility, geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes now ongoing cost drivers rather than temporary disruptions. Our organization continues balancing cost control with resilience, shifting sourcing strategies, tightening inventories and prioritizing supplier diversification and risk management.”
[Computer & Electronic Products]

“Retail electronics sales seem to have stabilized to some extent. The pause in tariff changes has been welcomed the last two months, but it’s only a matter of time before more confusion is introduced.”
[Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“Input costs remain elevated across key categories, driven largely by Middle East conflict impacts and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Supplier lead times have stretched, which is influencing our inventory strategy and sourcing decisions. We are managing exposure through diversified supplier bases and contract structures that balance cost certainty with operational flexibility.”
[Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Conditions are optimistic but not yet booming for our company, even though many others, it seems, are experiencing growth. Machinery in support of defense and semiconductor manufacturing is very strong, a bright spot for our team. Industrial and medical clients are slow to purchase, focusing more on refurbished and upgraded units versus new ones.” [Machinery]

“Core business remains solid in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Cautiously optimistic that a deal will be reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; concerned about ongoing ripple effects even when the strait reopens but situation is highly concerning if the strait remains closed. AI industry continues to have huge capacity consumption for critical electronics. Monitoring impact of U.S. defense industry needs on supplier capacity.”
[Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“No major changes from last month. With the potential ending of the Iran invasion, management is expecting us to go back to February pricing structures and plans since the increase in oil prices was driven by the war and not regular market influences.”
[Petroleum & Coal Products]

“Requests from suppliers in Europe and India for ‘energy surcharges’ have stopped this past month. We’re seeing continued capacity growth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), including Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea. Most suppliers are building for the longer term as geopolitical protection from all sides.”
[Transportation Equipment]

“The new Section 232 tariffs continue to destroy our profitability and demand as we have to raise prices to deal with this gigantic tax. Add the ‘incentives’ for our company to pivot to purchasing non-U.S. sourced material, and one realizes the total ineptitude of this tariff policy.”
[Transportation Equipment]

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

JUNE 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
JUNE 2026 Update

=========

Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 27, 2026

2026-07-03T18:32:00.000-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 27, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

Actual: 215,000

4-Week Moving Average: 222,000

====================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for MAY 2026

2026-06-26T20:49:00.000-04:00

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

Actual: +0.7%
> Real PCE: +0.3%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

Actual: +0.7%

> Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.7%
>> Real DPI: +0.3%*

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12-months previous: +4.1%
(prior - unrevised = +3.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.3%

Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12-months previous: +3.4%
(prior - unrevised = +3.3%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending

MAY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF).

=====================

* = Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending June 19, 2026

2026-06-24T14:02:55.118-04:00

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 19, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -15,200,000 Barrels (-2.00%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -74,300,000 Barrels (-9.09%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 743,300,000 Barrels

NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 13, 2026

2026-06-20T04:14:36.125-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 13, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 224,000

Actual: 226,000

4-Week Moving Average: 223,250

====================

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

Leading Economic Index for MAY 2026

2026-06-19T11:53:41.674-04:00

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May, 2026:

==============

Index for May, 2026: 99.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Actual: +0.1% (+0.1 point Month-on-Month)

Change from 12 Months Ago: -0.2% (-0.2 point)

==============

LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
LEI for December, 2025: 99.4
LEI for November, 2025: 99.6
LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
LEI for September, 2025: 98.3
LEI for August, 2025: 98.5
LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
LEI for May, 2025: 99.1

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
Building permits for new private housing
The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Average weekly manufacturing hours
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2026 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag.

Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead.

Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costs -- especially gas and energy -- are rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment, and shopping.

The good news is that businesses are spending heavily on AI, data centers, and new technology, helping to keep the economy growing, while consumers pull back spending.

The overall job market is expected to stay fairly healthy in 2026, but economic growth will be weaker than in recent years.

The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025.'..."

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Click Here to view the Conference Board report.

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for MAY 2026

2026-06-17T13:25:49.407-04:00

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for MAY, 2026:

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Previous Month (revised): +0.4% (+$3,023,000,000)

Actual: +0.88% (+$6,669,000,000)

Est. Retail Sales During May, 2026: $763,705,000,000

Year-On-Year Change: +6.88% (+$49,137,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

February 2006 Thru May 2026
MAY 2026 UPDATE
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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.

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Housing Starts During MAY 2026

2026-06-17T08:30:00.723-04:00

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May, 2026:

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Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,392,000

Actual: 1,177,000

Month-on-Month Change: -15.45% (-215,000 New Units)

Year-on-Year Change: -8.69% (-112,000 New Units)

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Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,423,000

Actual: 1,413,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.7% (-10,000 New Permits)

Year-on-Year Change: -0.21% (-3,000 New Permits)

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CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MAY, 2026 UPDATE

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Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

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Import and Export Price Indexes for MAY 2026

2026-06-16T10:15:40.768-04:00

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May, 2026:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading*: +2.0%
Actual: +1.9%

Change From 12-Months Previous: +6.7%

-- Year-on-year previous reading = +4.2%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading*: +3.5%
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12-Months Previous: +11.2%

-- Year-on-year previous reading* = +9.1%

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* = Revised data.

The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index

MAY, 2026 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index

MAY, 2026 Update

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During May 2026

2026-06-16T07:33:32.897-04:00

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for May, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.9%
Actual: +0.1% Month-on-Month (M/M)

Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.7%

--> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.7%
Actual: FLAT (M/M)

Y/Y : +1.4%

--> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual: 76.2%

Y/Y : +1.3%

--> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

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CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
MAY 2026 UPDATE

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Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 6, 2026

2026-06-11T17:01:38.165-04:00

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 6, 2026:

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Predicted: 220,000

Actual: 229,000

4-Week Moving Average: 219,000

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Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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