Economic Immigration AKA The Prisoner's Dilemma

U.S. College Degree: Return on Investment

2009-09-25T12:59:00.000-07:00

Something got me wondering about the "Return on Investment" of a college degree the other day. I think the best way to look at ROI on education is to see how many years the College Graduate can expect to be employed before being replaced.

The yearly average shortfall in College Graduate employment is 451,824. Persons reaching retirement age is now at 16.12% (up from 15.69% end of 1992). This (16.12% retirement rate) would put the employment shortfall for college graduates at 378,986 per year. Assuming that all 1,493,000 new class of 2009 college graduates are interested in working, this would create an "non-emloyment" rate of 25.38%.

In 2006 Occupational shock to the economy from high-skill temporary visas are as follows:

H-1B Specialty occupations requiring bachelor’s equivalent = 135,421
L-1 Intracompany transfers = 72,613
O-1 People of extraordinary ability = 6,961
O-2 Workers assisting O-1 = 3,726
TN NAFTA high-skilled visa (most from Canada) = 2,972

Total high skill visas (generally require a Bachelors): 221,693
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-28.htm

If we remove these temporary visas, the "non-employment" rate would fall to
10.54%

Period 1993 to 2009 (Aug.)

Yearly
Avg. Increase in College Graduates = 1,418,588
Avg. Increase in College Grad Employment = 966,765

Totals:
Total increase in College Grads = 24,116,000
Total increase in CG employment = 16,435,000

Divide (increase in CG emp) by (yrly avg increase in CGs)

(16,435,000 / 966,765)

Avg Length of College Graduate (employment) career = 11.58 years

BLS - CPS Data:
College Degrees

Series title: (Seas) Population Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over

Retirement:

Series title: (Unadj) Population Level - 65 yrs. & over
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level

A Shortage Where None Is Found

2009-08-04T10:52:00.000-07:00

Bill Gates and Oracle lobbyist Robert Hoffman are concerned that the U.S. is not producing the "correct" number of Computer-related specialists in the "correct" specialties to satisfy market demand. This "shortage" claim is used in support of expanding the H-1B and L-1 guest-worker visa program.

Computer-related H-1B initial approvals averaged 58,115 per year from 2000 to 2005, occupational reporting on H-1B visa appears to have been discontinued. To date, I know of no occupational data reporting on L-1 intracompany visas.

Aggregate Supply/Demand does not exhibit a shortage:

At face value, using the latest three years of BLS/OES employment and NCES educational data, the aggregate totals of degrees and certifications awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents do not support the "shortage" claims of Gates and Hoffman in computer related occupations.

Subtracting the May 2005 BLS/OES employment levels from May 2008 levels, we arrive at the three year employment growth in the occupation. (These were good employment growth years (12% for the 3 yr. period) for the Computer-related occupations; moreover, the majority of recent job losses in the economy occured after May 2008.)

BLS - OES Computer Related Employment Growth:
Computer-related occupations (15-1000 Computer Specialists )
(Three year employment growth May 2006, 07, 08)

Computer and Information Scientists, Research = 720
Computer Programmers = 5,140
Computer Software Engineers, Applications = 38,180
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software = 61,110
Computer Support Specialists = 45,660
Computer Systems Analysts = (-2,230)
Database Administrators = 16,390
Network and Computer Systems Administrators = 57,520
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts = 45,220
Computer Specialists, All Other = 75,020
Total Employment Growth = 342,730

The most recent three years of college degree and certification data is 2005 - 2007.

Computer related Degrees & Cert Awarded 2005, 2006, 2007
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents: (NCES Survey)

Doctorate Degrees = 2,112
Master's Degrees = 53,466
Bachelor's Degrees = 188,063
Associate's Degrees = 111,251
Post−Master's Certificates = 520
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 2143
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 2,392
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 19,052
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 33,435
Total (Citizen & Perm. Res.) Degree Production = 412,434

Degree and Certification production exceeded employment growth by 69,704. Of course, these are just aggregates, and do not address the claim that these graduates are not majoring in the specialties which the U.S. employment market demands.

Analysis of educational production to specialty occupations growth:

While researching this blog-entry, I found that many college majors are relevant to more than one Computer-related occupation, I had to find a way to make order out of what appeared to be chaos.

The NAICS will re-order the (SOC 2000) Minor Group, "15-1000 Computer Specialists" to "15-1100 Computer Occupations" in 2010. The 2010 classification's Broad Groups are parent categories that contain Detailed Occupations which will be closely aligned with the (SIC) codes used in education.

2010 SOC Code and Title

Major Group
...... ...... Minor Group .
..... ...... ...... Broad Group
...... ...... ...... ...... Detailed Occupation

15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations
...... ...... 15-1100 Computer Occupations
...... ...... ...... 15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1111 Computer and Information Research Scientists
...... ...... ...... 15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1122 Information Security Analysts
...... ...... ...... 15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1131 Computer Programmers
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1132 Software Developers, Applications
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1134 Web Developers
...... ...... ...... 15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1141 Database Administrators
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1142 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1143 Computer Network Architects
...... ...... ...... 15-1150 Computer Support Specialists
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1151 Computer User Support Specialists
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1152 Computer Network Support Specialists
...... ...... ...... 15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations
...... ............ ............ 15-1199 Computer Occupations, All Other

I used the Broad Group levels to segregate the college majors and degree levels in the following categories for comparison to employment growth:

15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists (Doctorates req.)
15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts (Bachelors req. but used Master's)
15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers (Bachelors req.)
15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects (Bachelors req.)

And combined the two following classifications:

15-1150 Computer Support Specialists (Associates req.)
15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations (Associates req.)

The following are the relevant fields of study/graduation data, organized to represent the parent (2010 SOC) occupational categories and relfecting degree paths referenced in the, "School To Employment Pathways System (STEPS)".

15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists
Scientists -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Doctorate Degrees

11.0103 Information Technology = 19
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General = 689
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst = 11
11.0401 Information Science/Studies = 171
11.0701 Computer Science = 724
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics = 17
51.2706 Medical Informatics = 24
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other = 87

Total Degrees for 15-1100 Scientists = 1,655
Total Employment Growth for 15-1100 Scientists = 720

15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts
Analysts -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Master's Degrees (min. req. is Bachelors)

11.0103 Information Technology = 1,546
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General = 9,663
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst = 586
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster = 10

Total Masters Degrees for 15-1120 Analysts = 11,805
Total Employment Growth for 15-1120 Analysts = (-2,230)

15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers
Programming -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Bachelor's Degree req.

11.0103 Information Technology
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1203 Computer Hardware Technology/Technician
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
52.0208 E−Commerce/Electronic Commerce

Doctorate Degrees = 323
Master's Degrees = 19,911
Bachelor's Degrees = 91,294
Post−Master's Certificates = 124
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 874

Bachelors Degrees & greater w Post Grad Certs for 15-1120 Programmers = 112,526
Total Employment Growth for 15-110 Programmers = 104,430

Associate's Degrees = 113,172
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 652
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 7,358
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 10,380

Additional Assoc. level Degrees & Certs 15-1130 Programmers = 131,562

15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects
Database and Network -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Bachelor's Degree req.

11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General

Doctorate Degrees = 47
Master's Degrees = 21,747
Bachelor's Degrees = 96,769
Post−Master's Certificates = 396
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 1,269

Total Degrees & Post Grad Certs for 15-1140 Database & Network = 120,228
Total Employment Growth for 15-1140 Database & Network = 119,130

Associate's Degrees = 16,834
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 182
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 2,725
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 4,224

Other Degrees & Certs 15-1140 Database & Network = 23,965

15-1150 Computer Support Specialists AND
15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations
Specialist & Misc -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Associate Degree / Certification req.

01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0601 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, General
11.0602 Word Processing
11.0699 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, Other
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other

Associate's Degrees = 53,588
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 1,558
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 8,968
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 18,663

Degrees & Certs Awarded for 15-1150 Specialists & 15-1190 Miscellaneous = 82,777
Employment Growth for 15-1150 Specialists & 15-1190 Miscellaneous = 120,680

At first glance, it may appear the there was a shortage of Support Specialists and Misc. Computer Occupations; however, there is 131,562 unused Associate level degrees and Certs in 15-1130 (Programming) and 23,965 Associate level degrees and Certs in 15-1140 (Database and Network)

My conclusion is that degree and certification levels are in line with market demand. Sadly, the H-1B and L-1 visa programs also exceed employment growth within the computer related occupations and Computer Science enrollment is declining because smart kids do their homework before choosing a college major.

Data:

OES Employment Growth:
"Bureau of Labor Statistics"
http://www.bls.gov/oes

15-1011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research
15-1021 Computer Programmers
15-1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications
15-1032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
15-1041 Computer Support Specialists
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts
15-1061 Database Administrators
15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
15-1081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
15-1099 Computer Specialists, All Other

2010 Standard Occupational Classification
http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc_structure_2010.pdf

SOC occupation code to SIC educational code crosswalk:
"School To Employment Pathways System (STEPS)"
http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

Educational Data:
"IPEDS Completion Survey NCES"
http://webcaspar.nsf.gov/

01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0601 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, General
11.0602 Word Processing
11.0699 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, Other
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1203 Computer Hardware Technology/Technician
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.0208 E−Commerce/Electronic Commerce
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other

Instead of creating a rather complicated database, I used a spreadsheet and color-coded occupational "Broad groups" and their college degrees acceptable to the occupations to ensure that I did not re-use/double-count any college degrees or certifications.

Author generated table from NCES DATA: click to enlarge

Underpayment of H-1B Wages?

2009-07-28T10:11:00.000-07:00

There is still some argument as to the practice of under-paying H-1B workers in Computer-related occupations. Does it exist? Is it pervasive?

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer
scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer." http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

The most recent H-1B salary information (I'm aware of) is 2006 data from Homeland Security.

Average annual salary of new recipients of H-1B
temporary work visas, by occupation and degree:
FY 2006 (Dollars)

H-1B Computer-related occupations

All degree levels = 56,200.00

Bachelor's = 56,000.00
Master's = 55,600.00
Professional = 71,200.00
Doctorate = 80,400.00

SOURCE: Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, special tabulations. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

For comparison, to H-1B salaries I've taken the published Mean Annual wage and created an average mean from all occupations within the BLS-OES 15-1000 Computer Specialists SOC classification. SOC 15-1000 (link) is identical to the DOT classified Computer related occupations (link)

Avg. Mean Annual Salary 2006:

15-1000 Computer Specialists = $69,123.42
Total Employment 2006 = 2,969,510
Total Mean Annual in Dollars = $205,262,675,900.00

http://www.bls.gov/oes/2006/may/oes150000.htm

Looking back at the H-1B salaries, we see that those H-1Bs with a Master's degree were paid $400.00 less than H-1Bs with Bachelor's degrees. I did the math in an earlier blog which puts the H-1B group (Computer related) with Master's degrees at 25,490 and the Bachelors degrees at 31,862.

Annual Salary 2006:
15-1000 Computer Specialists = $69,123.42 (Avg. Mean all degree levels)

H-1B Computer Specialist = $56,200.00 (Avg. all degree levels)

H-1B Underpayment = $12,923.42

(Yes, I comparing a Avg. Mean to an Average -- perhaps a couple dollars difference?)

Let's assume for a moment that business and government are interested in controlling the salaries of Computer Specialists. Assume, the method is importing lower paid specialists and the target salary is (the H-1B salary) $56,200.00.

This creates a circular problem for the government, the 2006 taxable gross wages for the occupation was $205 Billion. Reducing the salaries to $56,200.00 will reduce the tax base by $38 Billion. Of course to remedy this loss, the government will need to authorize 682,851 computer related visas (23% of the occupation) to recover from the tax loss -- that is "if" everyone else is retained. There is no telling how many foreclosures increasing immigration will cause in our zero growth economy.

Additionally, most of that $38 Billion was disposable income the lubricant for the economy.

2006, 15-1000 Computer Specialists ___ Employed ___ Mean Annual

Computer and Information Scientists, Research 27,650 ___ $96,440
Computer Programmers 396,020 ___ $69,500
Computer Software Engineers, Applications 472,520 ___ $82,000
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 329,060 ___ $87,250
Computer Support Specialists 514,460 ___ $44,350
Computer Systems Analysts 446,460 ___ $72,230
Database Administrators 109,840 ___ $67,460
Network and Computer Systems Administrators 289,520 ___ $65,260
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 203,710 ___ $67,460
Computer Specialists, All Other 180,270 ___ $69,370

U.S. Employment Perfomance in 21st Century

2009-07-21T12:34:00.000-07:00

Delta between growth in working age population (16 and over) and the growth in employment levels:

Click image to enlarge.

Delta between growth in Bachelor's degree (and higher) in population (25 and over) and the growth in Bachelor's degree (and higher) employment levels:

Click image to enlarge.

Data:

Downloaded from www.bls.gov/data (CPS) on July 21, 2009.

Series Id: LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU00027662
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 25 years and over
Educational attainment: College graduates

Series Id: LNU02027662
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 25 years and over
Educational attainment: College graduates

Something to Teaparty about.

2009-04-20T22:40:00.000-07:00

Current U.S. employment growth is below the levels of the 1950's -- not just in percentages -- in real numbers.

Employment growth when divided by Population growth, to create a percentage statistic, is a meager 19.57%. This means that there has only been one job created for every five persons (16 and older) entering the workforce since Dec. 31, 1999.

How can we bring in over one million legal immigrants per year, if we can't create enough jobs to employ our own children? If this isn't a depression, the government seems hell-bent to create one.

The reason we Teaparty is because our Representatives appear to represent citizens of other countries and Global Corporate Citizens.

1950's
Population Growth = 11,516,000
Employment Growth = 7,215,000 (62.65%)

1960's
Population Growth = 19,449,000
Employment Growth = 13,862,000 (71.27%)

1970's
Population Growth = 30,811,000 (Depression in Mexico)
Employment Growth = 21,224,000 (68.88%)

1980's
Population Growth = 20,865,000
Employment Growth = 17,685,000 (84.76%)

1990's
Population Growth = 21,667,000
Employment Growth = 16,998,000 (78.45%)

2000's (Mar. 2009)
Population Growth = 26,254,000
Employment Growth = 5,137,000 (19.57%)

Avg for previous 1950'- 1990's = (73.20%)
Avg. employment growth for 2000's should/would have been: = 19,218,994
Employment Shortfall 2000-2009 (March) = 14,081,994

From David Ricardo. On Wages

The market price of labour is the price which is really paid for it, from the natural operation of the proportion of the supply to the demand; labour is dear when it is scarce, and cheap when it is plentiful. However much the market price of labour may deviate from its natural price, it has, like commodities, a tendency to conform to it.

It is when the market price of labour exceeds its natural price, that the condition of the labourer is flourishing and happy, that he has it in his power to command a greater proportion of the necessaries and enjoyments of life, and therefore to rear a healthy and numerous family. When, however, by the encouragement which high wages give to the increase of population, the number of labourers is increased, wages again fall to their natural price, and indeed from a reaction sometimes fall below it.

When the market price of labour is below its natural price, the condition of the labourers is most wretched: then poverty deprives them of those comforts which custom renders absolute necessaries. It is only after their privations have reduced their number, or the demand for labour has increased, that the market price of labour will rise to its natural price, and that the labourer will have the moderate comforts which the natural rate of wages will afford.

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/ricardo-wages.html

Source Data:
BLS CPS Downloaded on 4/20/2009
http://www.bls.gov/data/

Formula: Each decade represents EOY Dec XXX9 to EOY Dec XXX9
Example: Decade of 1950's = Dec 1949 to Dec. 1959.

Series Id: LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Age: 16 years and over

Petition to remove Computer-related occupations from employment based immigration

2009-03-22T12:21:00.000-07:00

Problems, are sometimes not resolved to the lowest common denominator. The glaring problem in high-skill temporary immigration, is not the H-1B and L-1 programs, it is the gross over-subscription of H-1B and L-1 nonimmigrants in the "Computer-related occupations." One solution is to decertify Computer-related occupations from the DOJ list of "Specialty occupations."

A National Science foundation report shows that in 2006, 51% of all 113,593 H-1B visas granted were to Computer-related occupations. [57,932 visas]
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/fig03-62.htm

Here is what the law says about employment related immigration.

U.S. Code Collection
TITLE 8 > CHAPTER 12 > SUBCHAPTER II
> Part II > § 1182
§ 1182. Inadmissible aliens

(5) Labor certification and qualifications for certain immigrants
(A) Labor certification

(i) In general Any alien who seeks to enter the United States for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible, unless the Secretary of Labor has determined and certified to the Secretary of State and the Attorney General that—

(I) there are not sufficient workers who are able, willing, qualified (or equally qualified in the case of an alien described in clause (ii)) and available at the time of application for a visa and admission to the United States and at the place where the alien is to perform such skilled or unskilled labor, and
(II) the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed. (ii) Certain aliens subject to special rule For purposes of clause (i)

(I), an alien described in this clause is an alien who—
(I) is a member of the teaching profession, or
(II) has exceptional ability in the sciences or the arts.
(iii) Professional athletes
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001182----000-.html

First, we see that employment based immigration is the exception rather than the rule. Immigration "for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible..." the exception is where the Secretary of Labor has certified insufficient workers at the time and place, but "the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed." The current list of DOL certified occupations in "sciences or the arts" are generally called "Specialty Occupations. " The list of specialty occupations can be found on Form ETA-9035.

The occupational over-subscription is in the DOT defined, "Computer-Related Occupations."

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS
[Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)]
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

Over-subscription data comes the discontinued USCIS "H-1B Characteristics reports" from 2000-2005.[1] H-1B statistics for the (DOT) Computer-related occupations, are synonymous with the BLS - OES, "SOC" 15-1000 Computer Specialists. http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc_c0a0.htm

Guestworker over-subscription in Computer-related occupations.
From 2000-2006, employment growth (BLS-OES) in the (SOC) 15-1000 Computer Specialists, was 326,600. [2]

The National Science Foundation reports that 310,749 B.S. Computer Science degrees were granted to Americans from 2000 - 2006, with an additional 26,533 BS-CS awarded to temporary residents. [3] Domestic BS-CS degree production of 337,282 awards, exceeded "(SOC) 15-1000 Computer Specialist" employment growth of 326,600.

During a shorter period, 2001-2006, reflecting the six year H-1B duration, 328,968 H-1B visas were granted to "initial employment approvals" for Computer related occupations.[1][4] Computer-related occupations, H-1B initial employment approvals, also exceeded employment growth.

Factoid: 2000 to 2005 [1]
Computer related H-1B "Initial employment approvals = 348,691
Computer related H-1B "Continuing employment approvals = 390,506

Narrowing the scope to the 2000-02 recession, [2] the BLS-OES occupational statistics show an employment decline of 134,960 in Computer-related occupations, during 2001 (110,712) and 2002 (25,637) H-1B awards were added to the occupational group. Employment for H-1B is reserved as a condition of entry, therefore, the decline in the occupation and new H-1B are additive, bringing the job losses to 271,309.

The H-1B is only one of the high-skill non-immigrant visa program that has "...adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed." There are many high-skill nonimmigrant visa categories, the "O", "H-1", "L-1" and "TN" visas are all employment based temporary visas.[5] that can include Computer-related occupations.

High-skill temporary visas (H-1B, L-1,H-3, O-1, O-2, TN) [5]
1998 = 136,000
1999 = 165,930
2000 = 197,520
2001 = 230,400
2002 = 184,770
2003 = 165,430
2004 = 213,020
2005 = 203,320
2006= 224,060
Again, 271,309 workers were permanently displaced by the glut in computer-related H-1B awards, another 310,749 American BS-CS graduates entered the workforce. As a condition of employment, H-1B must have an employment offer, so 582,058 high skill workers were shut out of the Computer-related occupations. Additionally, 430,084 L-1 Intracompany visas were issued during the 2000-2006 period.[6] There are no statistics available to prove the L-1 subscription levels for Computer-related, but the OIG made the following statement:

"From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms that specialize in labor from India." [7]

Fraud estimate in Computer-related immigration:
The USCIS recently found a 31% violation/fraud rate in H-1Bs with Bachelor's degrees as the highest level of education.[8] Bachelor's degreed H-1B recipients are higly concentrated in Computer-related occupations. The NSF reports that roughly 47,300 of all new H-1Bs in 2006 did not have advanced degrees, in Computer-related occupations, 35,904 did not have advanced degrees (postgrad). 75.9% of all H-1Bs withless than a postgraduate degree were granted to Computer-related occupations in 2006.[9]

The most popular H-1B occupation also experienced the fourth highest rate of fraudulent conduct - computer-related occupations accounted for 42% (104 cases) of the sample. Among this sample, 27% (28 cases) were associated with some type of fraud or technical violation(s).[8]

Additionally, due to the AC21, H-1B and L-1 portability provisions,[10] it is reasonable to assume that similar violation/fraud rates exist in the Employment based green card PERM system, which is currently experiencing a backlog 500,000 applicants.

Overall, we estimate that the number of employment based principals (in the three main employment visa categories—EB1, EB2, and EB3) waiting for legalpermanent residence in the United States in 2006 was 500,040.
http://www.cggc.duke.edu/documents/IntellectualProperty_theImmigrationBacklog_andaReverseBrainDrain_003.pdf

America's high skill immigration policy has been completely insensitive to changing market conditions, even when employment creation has gone negative, America continues to import skilled workers without regard to available data. Other countries, such as Australia adjust their immigration intake by occupation.

"The economic circumstances in Australia have changed as a result of the global financial crisis," Senator Evans said. "It is prudent to reduce this year's migration intake accordingly."

The cuts will be coupled with deletions to the critical skills list,which specifies which jobs are open to migrants.

Senator Evans said Australia needs a more targeted list "so that migrant workers are meeting skills shortages and not competing with locals for jobs".
Government to cut immigration intake, 16 March 2009

Fortunately, Elaine Chao is no longer the Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis has been sworn in, she has publicly stated that she is interested in reviewing the H-1B and other non-immigrant employment programs. http://www.dol.gov/_sec/welcome.htm

I suggest that we call the DOL (Telephone: 1-866-4-USA-DOL (1-866-487-2365)) or email ExecutiveSecretariat@dol.gov and ask that Ms. Solis decertify "Computer-related Occupations" from the H-1B, L-1 OPT and EB-3 employment based visa programs.

The definition of Computer-related Occupations would include:
(DOT) "Computer Related Occupations"
(SOC) "15-1000 Computer Specialists"
(NCES - CIP) COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCES AND SUPPORT SERVICES

And the occupations listed under the following NAICS Industries:
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

References:
[1] Source: USCIS
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2000
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2001
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2002
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2003
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2004
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2005

[2] Source: Occupational Employment Statistics
15-1000 Computer Specialists Employment May 2000 = 2,642,910
15-1000 Computer Specialists Employment May 2006 = 2,969,510
Employment growth = 326,600

[3] Source: National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics, special tabulations of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey, 1997–2006.

[4] Source: National Science Foundation
"Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force"

An estimate (avg. of prior years) was used for 2006 computer-related H-1B awards 54,828, new data from the NSF indicates that 51% of 110,000 visas (over 56,100 H-1B visas) were computer related.

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations..."

"Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations..."

[5] Source: Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division administrative data, special tabulations.

[6] Source: Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown), (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards), Fiscal Years 1989 - 2008*

[7] Source: DHS, Office of Inspector General, "Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program"

[8] Source: U.S. CITIZENSHIP AND IMMIGRATION SERVICES, "H-1B Benefit Fraud & Compliance Assessment"

[9] Source: National Science Foundation, "Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force"

[10] Source: TITLE I—AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Appendix A.

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS DEFINED:

Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC)
15-1011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research
15-1021 Computer Programmers
15-1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications
15-1032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
15-1041 Computer Support Specialists
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts
15-1061 Database Administrators
15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
15-1081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
15-1099 Computer Specialists, All Other

Classification of Instructional Programs (NCES-CIP)
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General.
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.
11.0103 Information Technology.
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General.
11.0202 Computer Programming, Specific Applications.
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification.
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician.
11.0401 Information Science/Studies.
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst.
11.0701 Computer Science.
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design.
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration.
11.0803 Computer Graphics.
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications.
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator.
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager.
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security.
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster.

What is a Union?

2009-03-04T21:35:00.000-08:00

Now that you've read the title of this blog, clear your mind of everything that has comes to mind about Labor Unions. Some Labor Unions have become too powerful because they have been granted too much power by the membership.

The "bargaining scope" of a labor organization can be very limited, in fact, if you elected one "bargaining representative" to negotiate your health benefits and another "bargaining representative" to negotiate your salary, you would effectively belong to two Unions.

This blog-post asks the reader to consider an IT Professional Association (Union) with an extremely limited bargaining scope -- employment based immigration.

The term "Union" has become associated with entitlement, but other definitions are constructive.

Union:
Three piece fitting that joins two sections of pipe, but allows them to be disconnected without cutting the pipe.
www.thedrainsurgeon.com/terms.html

In computer science, a union is a data structure that stores one of several types of data at a single location. There are only two safe ways of accessing a union object. One is to always read the field of a union most recently assigned; tagged unions enforce this restriction.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_(computer_science)

Unions - A trade union or labour union is an organisation of workers who have banded together to achieve common goals in key areas such as wages, hours.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unions

The true problem, which should be addressed in the with the H-1B & L-1 nonimmigrant visas is that "5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services" is oversubscirbed with nonimmigrant workers . One hundred percent of OES employment growth has been reserved to H-1B workers in this decade.
"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer." National Science Foundation: "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008"

American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

Consider a Professional Association, that is instructed to become the "bargaining representative" to the for SOC Computer related occupations within the NAICS "Computer Systems Design and Related Services" Industry. The bargaining scope of this Professional Association would be the adherence to employment-based immigration law.

The benefit of having an immigration related bargaining unit is twofold, one the employer must notify the bargaining unit of its intention to hire an H-1B, and two there cannot be a strike or lockout when an LCA is filed.

20 CFR 655.733 - What is the third LCA requirement, regarding strikes and lockouts?

An employer seeking to employ H-1B nonimmigrants shall state on Form ETA 9035 or 9035 E that there is not at that time a strike or lockout in the course of a labor dispute in the occupational classification at the place of employment. A strike or lockout which occurs after the labor condition application is filed by the employer with DOL is covered by INS regulations at 8 CFR 214.2(h)(17).

(b) Documentation of the third labor condition statement. The employer need not develop nor maintain documentation to substantiate the statement referenced in paragraph (a) of this section. In the case of an investigation, however, the employer has the burden of proof to show that there was no strike or lockout in the course of a labor dispute for the occupational classification in which an H-1B nonimmigrant is employed, either at the time the application was filed or during the validity period of the LCA.

20 CFR 655.734 - What is the fourth LCA requirement, regarding notice

An employer seeking to employ H-1B nonimmigrants shall state on Form ETA 9035 or 9035E that the employer has provided notice of the filing of the labor condition application to the bargaining representative of the employer's employees in the occupational classification in which the H-1B nonimmigrants will be employed or are intended to be employed in the area of intended employment, or, if there is no such bargaining representative, has posted notice of filing in conspicuous locations in the employer's establishment(s) in the area of intended employment, in the manner described in this section.

Strikes, Lockouts & Picketing
When a trade union is unable to negotiate a collective agreement, they sometimes choose to strike an employer. A strike includes (1) a cessation of work, (2) a refusal to work, or (3) a refusal to continue to work, by two or more employees for the purpose of compelling their employer to agree to terms or conditions of employment.

Similarly, employers may choose to lockout their workers. A lockout includes (1) the closing of a place of employment by an employer, (2) the suspension of work by an employer, or (3) a refusal by an employer to continue to employ employees for the purpose of compelling employees to agree to terms of conditions of employment.

When the Professional Association has obtained legal status to represent the bulk of workers within the NAICS "Computer Systems Design and Related Services" Industry and SOC "COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS", we can petition the DOL and USCIS for H-1B occupational data and prove the visa oversubscription. The next step is to petition the government to remove the occupational Computer related occupations group from the list of H-1B occupations.

Appendix 2
THREE-DIGIT OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS
PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL, AND MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
AND FASHION MODELS

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

http://www.doleta.gov/regions/REG05/Documents/eta-9035.pdf

The power (and funding) for an American IT Professional Association, would come from injecting itself into the recruiting process. Providing information services to American IT Professionals and creating lists of preferred recruiters that support our positions. These recruiters would fund and profit from the Association.

The out of pocket costs to the American IT Professional, would simply be to use the Associations resources as exclusively as is prudent -- and contribute intellectually to the promotion of the profession. More on this later.

Mortgage Meltdown -- Housing Inflation - Immigration

2009-02-23T18:55:00.000-08:00

I've brought up some thoughts and data in postings here linking the causes of the
mortgage-meltdown to excessive immigration. Our government is in complete immigration denial and the two topics, housing and immigration, are never uttered in the same breath.

Raising the stakes in the financial debate would be the linking of mass-immigration to housing inflation and the ensuing mortgage meltdown. Linking these topics is not a hard thing to do. The final stages of desperation, is the importation of highly skilled labor -- the H-1B and L-1 visa -- these are mercenary workers who are most likely to displace a wage-earner with a performing mortgage.

The first step for curing the disease of mass-immigration is admitting you have a problem. In the decades leading up to the Great Depression, the economy was also "shocked" with mass-immigration.

Pre Great Depression Immigration rates:
1821-1830 143,439 immigrants arrive.
1831-1840 599,125 immigrants arrive.
1841-1850 1,713,251 immigrants arrive.
1851-1860 2,598,214 immigrants arrive.
1861-1870 2,314,825 immigrants arrive.
1871-1880 2,812,191 immigrants arrive.
1881-1890 5,246,613 immigrants arrive.
1891-1900 3,687,564 immigrants arrive.

Pre 1900 Total 19,115,132 (80 years)

1901-1910 8,795,386 immigrants arrive.
1911-1920 5,735,811 immigrants arrive.
1921-1930 4,107,209 immigrants arrive.
1931-1940 532,431 immigrants arrive.

Post 1900 Total 19,170,840 (40 years)

http://ocp.hul.harvard.edu/immigration/dates.html

To illustrate how important housing is to the economy, home ownership rates declined only 4.2% during the Great Depression (47.8% in 1930, to 43.6% in 1940).
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/owner.html

Currently, home ownership rates have already declined 1.7% in 4 years, (69.2% 4th Qtr. 2004, to 67.5% in the 4th Qtr. 2008).
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/files/histtab14.xls

Next we look at the housing availability in recent times.

Percent Change in House Prices Period Ended June 30, 2007
(United States) Since 1980 = 309.4%
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/2q07hpi.pdf

Then, we have the tiny Rental Housing growth compared to growth in the labor force.
1993 through 2007

Growth Rental Housing (Occupied Plus Vacant for rent) = 1,002,000
BLS Growth Civ NonInstitutionalized Labor Force (16 and over) = 39,372,000
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/files/histtab7.xls

Our immigration policy has tried to cram 39 people (immigrants and our children) into each new rental housing unit in 15 a year period -- it is no wonder the housing market hyper-inflated. The flattening of wages and the ever declining population of wage-earners who could qualify for a traditional Prime mortgage caused the banking industry to create EZ and No-Doc loans out of self-preservation -- these mortgages were repackages and sold to unsuspecting foreigners -- they didn't become toxic assets, they were always toxic, the banks refused to hold them.

Housing data from Harvard displays the decline of the qualified mortgage customers.

Data from: Table A-1. Income and Housing Costs, US Totals: 1975-2007
In 2007 Dollars.

Increase Home Owner income = 13%
Increase in Home Price = 74%

Even with lower interest rates, the after tax mortgage payment is 49% higher than 1975.

Increase in renter income = (-3%)
Increase in Renter cost gross rent = 10%

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2008/son2008_appendix_tables.xls

The solution:

The key is to present a solution that make financial sense, especially to banks and investors, taking into account ALL of the causes of the problem.

First, control immigration and reduce the numbers of new immigrants until "dryfoot" illegal immigrants and guest-workers can be investigated and brought into some sort of naturalized status -- frauds and criminals deported. The honorable migrants already have jobs and housing and cannot damage the economy as much as newly arriving immigrants who shock the economy with wage declines.

Second, "Nationalism" of banks and creation of a "Bad Bank" to hold toxic assets are both incorrect terminology. In the Insurance Industry, a temporary "nationalization" is called a Conservation and the "Bad Bank" is called a Trust.

The so called Toxic Assets have not matured yet, even if though some are in default. MBS and CDO investments are largely long term investments and the capital is only lost when the asset is liquidated in a foreclosure sale.

If we are to allow a Conservation of these MBS/CDO investments, to conserve the paper value of the capital investment, we need time for the assets to recover in value. Nationalization and bailouts are undesirable. A Conservation is a favor to the investor and the banker, the rules are suspended to preserve the paper capital, but in return for this favor they must agree to our terms. The alternative is that we can simply allow Mark to Market rules devalue the paper value of the capital investment.

The liquidity problem is the absence of the circulation of currency, with this in mind, mortgage workouts and cramdowns should be negotiated to the traditional 30% income level. Lender who wish to remain predatory mortgage providers should be punished, unprotected in the open market. In the case that the house is foreclosed, and standing empty, it must be introduced into the rental housing market to generate dividends for the MBS/CDO investor and property taxes paid. The homes must be occupied and productive to be included in the Conservation.

The circulation of currency is the key to our fractional reserve banking system, we must somehow generate currency flow in order to put the 1 to 9 leveraged lending rations back to work.

There were 35,147,000 renters in the U.S. in 2007. Flooding the rental housing market with currently vacant homes would reduce the housing costs of renters. A $200.00 savings in rental cost per renter would inject $7,029,400,000.00 per month of disposable income into the consumer markets without a wage increase. Some of the $7 billion monthly would circulate through the banks and improve lending reserves at the $1 to $9 fractional reserve leveraged rate. Theoretically, this $7 billion could be leveraged to $63 billion per month.

Similarly, cramdowns will also generate billions of dollars in disposable income and stimulate our fractional reserve lending system by the circulation of currency. Stable housing costs will stabilize labor costs -- the temptation to move overseas will be reduced -- keeping housing costs affordable in the U.S. is the key to global competitiveness.

Final note:
I suspect that both the immigration oversubscription and the property valuation problem will take about a decade to recover. The MBS/CDO investors are going to have to be patient if they want to preserve their capital. If we publicly provide a comprehensive solution that addresses immigration, I think they will be patient.

Memo to Lou Dobbs -- Fixing Immigration

2009-01-16T14:06:00.000-08:00

Mr. Dobbs,

Lou, let's fix immigration, so those movie-stars can quit picking on you. I believe that this proposal is a fair compromise for most interested parties.

Immigration is a lot like borrowing... borrowing against future job growth and future housing growth. The banks now realize that America has borrowed too much.

Overview:

Virtually all of U.S. immigration is financially motivated. The presence of 20 million illegal immigrants has financially destroyed the blue-collar workforce. Temporary worker programs are now destroying white-collar workforce, who have an even higher likelihood of servicing a mortgage. To address the plight of the all residents, legal and illegal, in a financially responsible manner, we must borrow against future immigration quotas to selectively adjust the status of illegal aliens who will help us destroy the job magnet.

Reserving future visas to adjust the status of those persons already here: The reduction in future new-arrival immigration will help the blue collar worker. Business related immigration must also be conducted in a fiscally responsible manner, business related immigration (temp. and perm.) must be performance based and limited to a small percentage of the prior year's employment growth. (Performance based business immigration quotas would discourage offshoring.)

Our global competitiveness issues are imposed upon us by our inflated housing costs. Inflated housing costs inflate salary requirement and the tax burden on higher salary, the result is the movement of existing jobs overseas. The government's attempts to place a floor under U.S. housing valuation is destroying the world's economic engine.

Fixing Illegal Immigration:

Fixing the job magnet is as simple as allowing illegal immigrants to testify against illegal employers in exchange for documentation. The recent sting operation against Boston Port Director, Lorraine Henderson, is an example of the long term solution to the job magnet. Witness testimony against illegal employers will forever fix the job magnet, if there are substantial penalties for the employer and reward for the employee. I would suggest an IRS audit to discover and retroactively recover illegally deducted wage expenses -- i.e. wages paid to undocumented aliens should be taxed as profit. A simple civil action -- no proof of foreknowledge required.

Perhaps, a short amnesty period for illegal employers who turn themselves in promptly, but after that, let the ACLU and U.S. Chamber of Commerce argue the fairness of recovering back taxes with the IRS.

Illegal employers have home addresses and assets to seize, why do we chase nomadic workers all over the countryside? With enforcement directed at the illegal employer, opportunities will dry up, those illegal immigrants without an employer to violate, will self-deport. Those who help with these prosecutions are the hard working migrants we want to keep.

The impact of mass-immigration is hyper-inflation in housing, 309.4% (1980 to 2007) and flat wages. America can not sustain this rate of inflation because the American salary-requirement and tax burden becomes globally uncompetitive and jobs move offshore.

To avoid more immigration driven, hyper-inflation in the housing market, we must borrow against future (non-business) immigration visa quotas to normalize the status of the otherwise law abiding illegal immigrants. (Selected by their willingness to participate.) Eventually, these migrant's (citizen) children will become of age to sponsor the parent(s) for citizenship. The end result is identical, with the exception of housing equity they might have attained (a hedge against rental inflation) to help them in their old age.

Growth from immigration would be cut in half. Counting 50% of the visas granted annually, to those already in our country, would address America's declining job growth problem and undocumented resident problem at the same time.

Its most-recent-year data show that the U.S. granted:
• 744,531 permanent green cards to working-age adults ages 20-64, and
• 912,735 new employment authorization documents to temporary foreign workers.
Source: NumbersUSA

Addressing our immigration policy will instill confidence within the banking systems, indicating that we are not interested in risking America's hard assets (and economic meltdown) in 'bubble' economic scams.

Fixing Employment Based Immigration:

High skill, employment based immigrants are the most likely group to displace an American worker with a performing mortgage. If my understanding of the fractional reserve banking system is accurate, foreclosures in a declining market are exponentially harmful to the lending reserve ratio.

Employment based immigration (non-immigrant and immigrant) must have floating caps that are relational to employment growth. Some small percentage of the prior year's employment growth would become the employment based visa cap for the following year.

However, we can't allow 100% of the employment growth in the STEM occupations to be awarded to foreign nationals with loyalties lying elsewhere. The employment based immigration caps must be a percentage of prior employment growth in the individual occupations.

Instead of a lottery for visa awards, the highest salary offers, within each occupation would "win" these scarce visas. Additionally, this plan would discourage employers from sending jobs offshore -- if they are interested in obtaining employment based visas in the coming year. Occupations with no employment growth in the prior period would be "closed" to new immigration and temporary worker renewals.

Finally, dual-intent, non-immigrant visas (H-1B & L-1), have removed the requirement for the non-immigrant to maintain a foreign residence. This also removes the requirement for the employer to offer a travel and housing Per-Diem, or relocation expenses.

Without a home to return to, the non-immigrant is at a disadvantage and is financially motivated to apply for citizenship if she doesn't want to abandon her possessions. Additionally, the travel and housing Per-Diem stimulates the local service and hospitality industries. The foreign residence requirement assures property equity levels are sustained in the donor country.

Banking and Housing:

The banking industry pulled the plug on the economy precisely when it became apparent that the CIR (Comprehensive Immigration Reform) would fail for the second time. Confidence in Mortgage Backed Securities evaporated at the moment America refused to double the intake of legal immigrants. Banks and investors well understood that immigration was driving housing inflation and took corrective action immediately. America must take the fiscally responsible corrective action, in light of the 30% decline in employment growth over population growth in this decade.

To illustrate how important housing is to the economy, the home ownership rates declined only 4.2 % during the Great Depression (47.8% in 1930, to 43.6% in 1940).

Currently, home ownership rates have already declined 1.1% in 2 years, (69% 3rd Qtr. 2006, to 67.9% in the 3rd Qtr. 2008).

The basis of capitalism is private ownership, free trade was an afterthought. Home ownership is the wage earner's hedge against rental-housing inflation and is also a hedge against an undignified retirement.

Historic: Home ownership rates -- Graph:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/hograph.html

Historic: Home ownership rates --Tables:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/owner.html

Current: Home ownership rates -- Table (excel)
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/files/histtab14.xls

BLS lays a big fat egg

2009-01-13T09:09:00.000-08:00

I thought this was interesting enough for a new thread, it looks like the gvt. is pretty desperate to not show the unemployment spike in the educated workforce.

The data is BLS_CPS (unadj) age 25 and over, by educational attainment levels.

Formula: Dec. 2008 levels (subtract) Oct 2008 levels to determine the change.

Change in Employment Levels = -1,814,000

College Grad or Higher = -638,000
Less than Bachelors = -389,000
HS No College = -499,000
No HS Diploma = -288,000

Change in Unemployment Level = 555,000

Where did 1,259,000 people go? Did the population decline? No!

Change in Civilian noninstitutional population = 377,000

College Grad or Higher = -498,000
Less than Bachelors = -67,000
HS No College = 478,000
No HS Diploma = 465,000

How do we lose 498,000 college grads and higher and 67,000 "some college less than bachelors degree" -- 26,000 of these are Associate degrees.Keep in mind that Oct.1 was H-1B day, and in 2006, there were 113,000 new H-1B visas issued.

Change in educational classifications:

HS No College (Plus) No HS Diploma = 943,000
Subtract Growth in NonInst Civ Population = (377,000)
Total = 566,000

College Grad or Higher = -498,000
Less than Bachelors = -67,000
Total = -565,000

If you will grant me the rounding error of 1000 persons (see: Footnotes on the data below), it sure looks like over a half million people from the "educated" classifications were moved to No college/No High School diploma classifications. But again, where did the 1.29 million people go?

The BLS doesn't offer a "Not In the Labor Force" (NILF) query for age 25 and older, but it's an easy calculation. The problem is that if the BLS reclassified the degree holders, there is no sense in breaking it (the NILF) down by educational level.

Not In the Labor Force (NILF):

October 2008
Civ NonInst Population = 197,044,000
Subtract Employed = (126,786,000)
Subtract Unemployed = (6,627,000)

Oct. Not in the Labor Force = 63,631,000

December 2008
Civ NonInst Population = 197,421,000
Subtract Employed = 124,972,000
Subtract Unemployed = 7,182,000

Dec. Not In the Labor Force = 65,267,000

Change in Not In the Labor Force = 1,636,000
Subtract growth in Population = (377,000)
Total = 1,259,000

There's the missing persons who didn't make it to the Unemployment statistic. No, it wasn't guestworkers leaving the country.

Footnotes on the data:
The Educational Attainment classifications, "Some college, no degree" and "Associate degree" are combined in the category, "Less than a Bachelor's degree." In order to reconcile the Educational Attainment classifications with total "NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population" the parent category "Less than a Bachelor's degree" was used and displayed a rounding error in December.

December 2008
NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population = 197,421,000

College graduates (bachelor's or higher) = 58,005,000
Less than Bachelor's degree = 51,422,000
High School graduates, no college = 61,898,000
Less than a high school diploma = 26,097,000

Total of educational classifications for Dec. = 197,422,000

The totals of the Educational attainment categories did not reconcile
in December, but reconciled excatly in October.

October 2008
NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population = 197,044,000

College Grad or Higher = 58,503,000
Less than Bachelor's degree = 51,489,000
High School graduates, no college = 61,420,000
Less than a high school diploma = 25,632,000
Total of educational classifications for Oct. = 197,044,000

Source:
downloaded on 1/12/2009
Unadjusted series, age 25 and over by educational attainment.
http://www.bls.gov/data (Current Population Survey)

NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population
College graduates (bachelor's or higher)
Less than Bachelor's degree
High School graduates, no college
Less than a high school diploma

Baby Boomers vs Immigration Boomers

2009-01-11T15:10:00.000-08:00

Most of us have read about the baby boomer issue and how importing immigrant labor is being used to offset shortages in Social Security funding.

"80 million baby boomers will be retiring in the next 20 years."

The graph below, displays the adult immigration rate per age group from the BLS Non Institutionalized Civilian Workforce statistics. The baseline is the 25 to 34 year old group, always 100%, there can be no births in this age-group, all increases must be from immigration. The 'x' axis is the year of birth, 100% represents the year that the individual became 25 years of age. (The 'x' axis ends in 1972 because we've run out of 35 year old persons to make a comparison.)

In the 35 to 44 year old age group, the population's percentage increase is displayed in the group, again by year of birth. We can see elevated immigration rates in the Depression, World War II and the bubble economics era.

The alarming portion of the 35 to 44 year old age group is the extremely high immigration rate in recent times.

In the 45 to 54 year old age-group, we see some departures, deaths or a combination of both. These workers will likely remain in the U.S. to collect Social Security. (The 45 to 54 age groups runs out of data because individuals with this year of birth have not yet attained this age.)

Click on image to enlarge:

For completeness I've included the Census Birth rates.

And the U.S. death rates by age group.

Urban Definition of IT Industry (and cheating on the unemployment statistic)

2008-09-13T11:01:00.000-07:00

IT Services, IT industry, IT workforce and just plain IT. The BLS does not have a category called "IT". Where do journalists get this fuzzy "IT" occupational definition?

This CIOInsight article, currently with 21,851 article views, appears to be a primary source for this fuzzy definition of "IT"...

Computer Jobs Hit Record High

By Eric Chabrow

2008-07-07

http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Workplace/Computer-Jobs-Hit-Record-High/

CIO Insight defines "IT" as the BLS definition entitled, Computer Systems Design and Related Services, which is classified as an Industry. http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/CGS033.htm

"Not every person employed by IT services firms—officially labeled by the government as computer systems design and related services—is an IT pro, but a majority are."

"The size of the IT workforce in the United States has topped 4 million workers for the first time last quarter, according to CIO Insight’s analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data."

"And the number of employed IT pros reached 3,956,000 in the second quarter of 2008, also a record high."

Four million? CIOInsight has a credibility problem.

Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail

Computer systems design and related services............
Unadjusted: August 2008p = 1,427,200
Adjusted: August 2008p = 1,425,900
p = preliminary.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm

Additionally, the 2006 "Computer systems design and related services" industry is totaled here with All Occupations at 1,278,000 employed. http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/CGS033.htm#table2

Next, CIOInsight produces an extremely low unemployment rate for "IT" by using only the unemployment rates for 56% of the occupations, the traditional computer-related occupations with the CIS Managers.

"CIO Insight analyzes these eight occupation categories to determine current IT employment conditions."

Paraphrased list of occupations in CIOInsight "IT" unemployment rate:
computer scientists 15-1011
systems analysts 15-1051
computer programmers 15-1021
computer software engineers 15-1031 and 15-1032 (?)
computer support specialists 15-1041
database administrators 15-1061
network and computer systems administrators 15-1071
network systems and data communications specialists 15-1081
computer and information systems managers 11-3021

Note: The U.S. Department of Labor defines Computer-related occupations:

Computer - Related Occupations
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

Computer Information Systems Managers would probably be classified under...

Miscellaneous Professional, Technical, and Managerial Occupations
199 MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL, AND MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
http://www.lca.doleta.gov/h1bcl_oc.pdf

Update:
Computer Information System Managers are traditionally classified under...

CEN90 (1990 Census Occupations): 022 Managers and Administrators, N.E.C.
http://www.occupationalinfo.org/onet/13017c.html#CROSSWALKS

In several instances within the article, the computer-related occupations (with CIS managers) unemployment rate is quoted as the unemployment rate for the "IT" industry. The "IT" quotes are then referenced in other CIO Insight articles.

"The IT unemployment rate inched up one-tenth of a percentage point last quarter to 2.3 percent, but still hovers near historic lows."

"A year earlier, the IT unemployment rate stood at 2.1 percent..."

CIOInsight even converts the bogus unemployment rate back into number of unemployed.

"A year earlier, the IT unemployment rate stood at 2.1 percent, with 3,599,000 workers employed in IT and 77,000 jobless and looking for positions in the field, for an IT workforce size of 3,675,000."

By CIOInsight's own admission, 44% of the "IT" occupation's unemployment rates are not included in CIOInsight's published "IT" unemployment rate.

General and operations managers
Marketing and sales managers
Financial managers
Engineering managers
Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists
Management analysts
Accountants and auditors
Electrical and electronics engineers
Engineering technicians, except drafters
Market research analysts
Graphic designers
Technical writers
Sales representatives, services
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products
Sales engineers
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
Customer service representatives
Secretaries and administrative assistants
Office clerks, general
Computer, automated teller, and office machine repairers
http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/CGS033.htm#table2

I don't know what the unemployment rate is for "IT" aka Computer Systems Design and Related Services, but neither does CIOInsight. However, here are the (Unadjusted) unemployment percentages for the Major occupations -- a portion of each is within Computer Systems Design and Related Services.

HOUSEHOLD DATA NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Occupation _____ Unemployment August 2007 _____ Unemployment August 2008

Management, business, and financial operations occupations _____ 2.4% _____ 2.8%
Professional and related occupations.......................................... _____ 2.8% _____ 3.6 %
Sales and related occupations....................................................... _____4.7% _____ 6.3 %
Office and administrative support occupations......................... _____ 4.2 % _____ 5.6%
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations.................... _____ 2.8 %_____ 4.4 %

(Note: these are occupational totals not industry totals)
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea30.txt
http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/CGS033.htm#table2 (CSDRS "IT"occupations)

Here is some more food for thought, Dice.com specializes in "IT" employment.

"With more than 2.5 million registered technology candidates, Dice can help you fill your openings quickly and easily."
http://seeker.dice.com/common/provider/subscription.jsp

"Employed - More than 70% of candidates are employed: Dice provides access to harder-to-find, passive candidates. "
http://seeker.dice.com/common/provider/why_use_dice.jsp

The second DICE.com statement also implies less than 71% are employed: meaning more than 29% of the candidates are not-employed.

2.5million * 29% = 725,000 not-employed on Dice.com

Quoted are the two methodology paragraphs on the CIOInsight unemployment rate claims and the arbitrary exclusion of the unemployment rate(s) for 44% of the "IT" industry.

"Besides the establishment survey, the government also queries 60,000 households to determine employment and unemployment in the U.S. For our analysis, we use a BLS quarterly report that aggregates the monthly reports and details employment in hundreds of occupation categories. The government tracks seven major computer-related job categories: computer scientists and systems analysts, computer programmers, computer software engineers, computer support specialists, database administrators, network and computer systems administrators and network systems and data communications specialists plus computer and information systems managers."

"CIO Insight analyzes these eight occupation categories to determine current IT employment conditions. Because these IT professions comprises less than 3 percent of the overall workforce, and each occupation category’s size on its own would be statistically unreliable, CIO Insight aggregates the last four quarters to determine each quarter’s workforce, employment and unemployment levels. For example, we added BLS data from the last two quarters of 2007 and the first two quarters of 2008 then divided by four to determine second-quarter 2008 data. Statisticians and economists say aggregating four quarters worth of data makes them more statically reliable than just using one quarter’s worth of data.
http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Workplace/Computer-Jobs-Hit-Record-High/

"Here are other article quotes spreading the mythical "IT" unemployment rate:

The New IT Worker Shortage
By Eric Chabrow
2008-01-15
http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Trends/The-New-IT-Worker-Shortage/

"A record 3.76 million workers in the U.S. held IT jobs last year, according to a CIO Insight analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That's a whopping 8.5 percent increase from 2006. The rapid growth in employment lowered last year's IT unemployment rate to 2.1 percent, from 2.5 percent in 2006, the lowest level recorded since the government redefined IT occupations in 2000. As a comparison, overall employment in the U.S. in 2007 stood at 4.6 percent, unchanged from 2006."

Damn the Economy! IT Employment Rises to New Heights
By Eric Chabrow
2008-01-07
http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Trends/Damn-the-Economy-IT-Employment-Rises-to-New-Heights/

"Joblessness among American IT workers averaged 2.1 percent last year, down from 2.5 percent in 2006. That's the lowest unemployment rate for IT pros since the government began using the current method to track employment in 2000, when IT joblessness stood at 2.2 percent."

Employment Growth for College Grads

2008-09-11T21:48:00.000-07:00

Table of BLS Employment growth over Population growth 1993 to present for persons with bachelor's degrees or higher.

By percentage, employment growth is worse now than in 2001. (click image to enlarge)

The reason I created the bachelor's degree eployment growth table was to question the percieved need for high-skill non-immigrant visas, which are averaging about 200,000 per year according to the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division.

Source MS Excel format:

Google source HTML format:

More detailed information is published on H-1B visas, here are some interesting notes on the H-1B visa that demonstrates over-subscription in computer-related occupations.

The National Science Foundation frames the problem:

Compared with natives, foreign-born individuals with advanced S&E degrees show no statistically significant salary differences when controlling for age, years since degree, and field of degree. At the bachelor’s degree level, foreign-born S&E degree holders still had a –6.3% salary differential.

At the doctoral level, the addition of occupation leaves no statistically significant difference between the salaries of underrepresented ethnic groups, compared with whites and Asians. For the foreign born, controlling for occupational characteristics actually moves differentials in a negative direction, suggesting that the [doctorate level] foreign born generally have better-paying occupations than natives.

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s1.htm#c3s16

In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer. This actually represents an increase in recent years (from a low of 25% in 2002) in the proportion of new H-1B visas going to computer-related occupations.

In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations had master’s degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees. Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations Education Levels.

In FY 2006, 57% of [all] new H-1B visa recipients had advanced degrees, including 41% with master’s degrees, 5% with professional degree, and 11% with doctorates. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm

The NSF publication tells us that H-1B computer-related occupations:

...that computer-related occupations accounted for 51% of 110,000 H-1B visas in 2006.

...have a higher rate of non-postgraduates (bachelorate level or lower) than the H-1B program as a whole. (54% to 43% respectively)

...that H-1B non-postgraduate holders are concentrated in computer-related occupations due to very high subscription levels.

...that computer-related H-1Bs with masters degrees earned $400.00 less than those with bachelor degrees. See table: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

...that all foreign born S&E workers with only a bachelors degrees earn 6.3% less than Americans.

Obviously, the computer-related H-1B is oversubscribed at the bachelor degree level. If we could get USCIS to deny computer-related H-1B visas at the bachelor degree level. 35,100 of the 65,000 H-1B visa cap would be available to more qualified migrants.

American students at a disadvantage:

Many countries provide free K-16 education while America provides K-12, most Americans carry student loan debt for simple undergrad degrees. The foreign student assumes debt for postgraduate education at a higher "out of state" tuition level -- the colleges are financially motivated to place the higher paying foreign students in postgraduate programs.

The American postgraduate carries six years of student loan debt while many migrant postgraduate workers carry two years of student loan debt. If the American student can get into the postgraduate program in the fist place.

Foreign workers at a disadvantage:

Dual-intent non-immigrant employment visas have over-subscribed the EB PERM green card program. Effectively, the brightest and the best are competing for permanent residency with minimally qualified practitioners.

The better solution is to eliminate the H-1B and L-1 and only allow single year B-1 installation and training visas for temporary workers. Use the Employment-based visa program to the job it was designed to do -- filter employment based admissions by educational level and provide a reasonable (5 year) probationary period for citizenship.

OPT extension to cost current STEM workers 176.5 billion in earnings

2008-08-07T21:56:00.000-07:00

The Programmers Guild and the Immigration Reform Law Institute, have been denied a preliminary injunction against the Bush administration's 17 month extension of OPT training visas for foreign graduates studying STEM coursework.

Catch up on the details here:

Judge rejects student visa injunction sought by H-1B opponents
Patrick Thibodeau: Computerworld

Here's a problem:

"Hochberg's ruling focused less on the merits of the case and more on whether H-1B opponents had legal standing to bring it, noting that they could not show they had been directly hurt by the student visa extension."

One way to demonstrate direct harm to current STEM workers would be to show the effect of the added workers impacting the lifespan of the STEM career.

BLS STEM Employment 2005 = 5,228,040
Avg STEM Salary 2005 = $64,560.00

U.S. citizens and permanent residents:
Bachelors Degrees Science and engineering awarded

1995 = 363,463
1996 = 369,927
1997 = 373,745
1998 = 375,909
1999 = missing
2000 = 383,438
2001 = 384,492
2002 = 399,288
2003 = 421,730
2004 = 436,372

Total = 3,508,364
(389,818.22 avg per yr.)

STEM Career to replacement factor (domestic) = 13.41 years

Nonresident aliens:
Bachelors Science and engineering awarded

1995 = 14,685
1996 = 14,747
1997 = 14,737
1998 = 14,709
1999 = missing
2000 = 15184
2001 = 15,714
2002 = 16,323
2003 = 17,704
2004 = 18,606

Total 142,409
(15,823.22 avg per yr.)

STEM Career to replacement factor (domestic & foreign grads) = 12.89 years

Effect of OPT increases in current STEM worker population = 0.52 years (lost wage)

Dollar impact to each current STEM worker = $33,774.81

Total damages to current STEM workforce = $176,576,049,208.98

STEM Bachelor degree data
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07308/tables/tab4.xls

STEM Employment data
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2007/spring/art04.pdf

If you want to be an immigrant -- update your skills to the postgraduate level

2008-07-18T07:21:00.000-07:00

"Vivek Wadhwa, an adjunct professor at the Duke University Pratt School for
Engineering, doesn't buy into the noble notion that U.S. companies such as
Microsoft go overseas because the American job pool doesn't have the required,
high-end skills." http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08200/897726-28.stm

Wadhwa, also a former Tech industry Captain, is against the H-1B, but is also sensitive to the postgraduates of American colleges; non-immigrants wishing to become Americans that are trapped in limbo, because of per country quotas in the Employment based green-card system. Conversely, these quotas have saved the U.S. from being overrun with "weak" foreign graduates.

In other posts, I've displayed that our immigration levels are excessive, employment growth is not keeping up with population growth and housing inflation (caused by excessive immigration) is causing Americans to be economically evicted in our own country. The last thing we need is more immigration.

Instead of raising the Employment based visa caps which are adequate... re-arrange some categories to alleviate the backlog, but we need to be selective, as Wadhwa proclaims, some of these foreign degrees are Associate degrees disguised as Bachelor degree equivalent.

1. Create an exemption from the employment based per-country-caps for postgraduates of colleges located within America. (They tell us we need to update our skills if we want to be employed, thus if you want to be an immigrant -- update your credentials.)

2. The employment based (EB) visa quota includes spouses and children -- move these visas from the EB program to the Family sponsored visa quotas.

3. Eliminate the H-1B and L-1 abusive visa programs and put business visa programs back where they belong, under the Business visa (B-1) for the purpose of investment, equipment installation and training only. Non-immigrant employment visas are indenturing, step by step we are on the road to condoning slavery -- see the AGJOBS bill on the removal of worker protections, worker paid fees and wage caps.

4. Employment based immigration caps should not be a hard cap. During recessions, the U.S. does not create enough jobs for our children, but the immigrants keep coming. Employment based immigration should be performance based, i.e. some small percentage of the prior year's employment growth. If employment based immigration were to become performance based, corporations may not be so eager to offshore entire processes.

5. Employment based immigration enforcement is rather simple. If a worker is out of status, simply disallow the employer's tax deduction expense for out-of-status wages. If the employer requires illegal labor to compete, they're already bankrupt and haven't come to terms yet.

Taken from the video embedded below, Wadhwa explains the conclusions of Duke University studies... which eliminates all labor shortage propaganda.

"... the multinationals are teaching these employees what they need and they are taking any education that they can get, it doesn't matter that the entire education system in India and China is garbage, and the graduates are weak, American companies will train them up because they are so cheap..."
"... in almost every perspective Amercans [workers] were better..."
"...the bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with American workers, they were better by far, not by a little, but by a lot..."
"In a country that doesn't even have washing-machines, both GE and Whirlpool are designing appliances in India right now..."
...they [China] are desparate to move up the ladder to R&D, they are now coercing American companies to move their R&D there .... if the American companies are going to manufacture there they better move their R&D there."

Last Century's immigration policy no longer works

2008-07-15T02:06:00.000-07:00

To continue the current immigration policy and save the Banking Institutions, well need about 13 million jobs -- right away. Since that isn't likely, maybe we should re-evaluate immigration policy.

BLS Employment Growth over NonInstCiv Population Growth by Decade:
1950s
Population Growth = 11,516,000
Employment Growth = 7,215,000 (63%)

1960s
Population Growth = 19,449,000
Employment Growth = 13,862,000 (71%)

1970s (Full blown depression in Mexico)
Population Growth = 30,811,000
Employment Growth = 21,224,000 (69%)

1980s
Population Growth = 20,865,000
Employment Growth = 17,685,000 (85%)

1990s
Population Growth = 21,667,000
Employment Growth = 16,998,000 (78%)

2000s (to June 2008)
Population Growth = 24,795,000
Employment Growth = 11,953,000 (48%)

Data: BLS - CPS

Unadjusted http://www.bls.gov

Downloaded: July 2008

Housing foreclosures & Immigration

2008-07-12T12:44:00.000-07:00

Some people have a hard time fathoming that immigration levels and the housing crisis are related. After all, immigrants do not come here in motor homes. Some immigration is necessary in an expanding economy, but immigration becomes excessive when adequate housing and employment opportunities (adequate for housing and sustenance) are not being created, or employment is being outsourced overseas.

Total BLS employed reached 145,583,000 in Nov. 2006 and is 145,891,000 for June 2008. Employment has grown by 308,000 while the Civilian Labor Force Level grew by 1,987,000 during this period.

Most new immigrants initially become renters, increased rental housing demand is caused by immigration, this demand forces more established residents into dubious mortgages on hyper-inflated housing. Wages also languish during periods of oversupply of (immigrant plus domestic) labor and cannot maintain the pace of hyper-inflating real-estate.

In Table 1, I've used DHS supplied data for Legal Permanent Resident awards as a proxy for immigration levels per State (includes District of Columbia.) Table 1 compares the immigration levels with the number of RealtyTrac housing foreclosure filings for March 2008. I've added columns for foreclosure rankings and immigration rankings on a State by State basis.

Table 1 shows that the States with higher "immigration rankings" in most cases also have higher foreclosure (filing) rankings.

Table 1 (click on image to enlarge)

RealtyTrac housing foreclosure filings data also includes a 1 to (number of households) ratio for each State. Using this data, I created Table 2. Table 2, compares the lowest foreclosure ratings (ratio foreclosure filings to number of units) to the States with lowest immigration levels.

Table 2 (click on image to enlarge)

It is obvious to me that America's immigration policy has created a housing market where most would borrow against their homes (even before purchasing) instead of creating employment opportunities where borrowing against one's home would be a last resort.

The sub-prime bubble burst (investors pulled the plug) at about the same time the Comprehensive Immigration Reform legislation was defeated.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006

The sponsor of the Bill, Senator Arlen Specter, introduced it on April 7, 2006. It was passed on May 25, 2006, by a vote of 62-36. Cloture was invoked, which limited debate to a 30 hour period. The parallel House Bill H.R. 4437 would have dealt with immigration differently. Neither bill became law because they failed to pass the conference committee. The end of the 109th Congress (January 3, 2007) marked the death of both bills.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007

The bill [Comprehensive Immigration Reform] also received heated criticism from both sides of the immigration debate. The bill was introduced in the United States Senate on May 9, 2007, but was never voted on, though a series of votes on amendments and cloture took place. The last vote on cloture, on June 7, 2007, 11:59 AM, failed 34-61 effectively ending the bill's chances. A related bill S. 1639, on June 28, 2007, 11:04 AM, also failed 46-53.

Subprime mortgage industry collapse

"In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed..."

Data:

Foreclosures by State:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-04-15-foreclosure-filings-march_N.htm#chart

Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2007
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2007/table04.xls

Increasing H-1B cap reduces wages?

2008-07-10T23:15:00.000-07:00

The National Science Foundation (NSF) has published a document entitled, "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008."

One very interesting NSF point for FY 2006 was for H-1B visa holders in Computer-related and Writers occupations. In both occupations, Bachelor’s degreed H-1B workers earned an average of $400.00 more per year than those with a Master’s degree.

2006 Computer-related occupations H-1B Average Salaries:
Bachelor’s Degree = $56,000.00
Master’s Degree = $55,600.00

2006 Writers occupation H-1B Average Salaries:
Bachelor’s Degree = $37,900.00
Master’s Degree = $37,500.00

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

The NSF document also states:

"In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations had master's degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees."

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer. "

"Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T [Science & Technology] occupations."

"Total 2006 new H-1B visas approved: 113,593."

Checking these NSF statements, the computer-related H-1Bs would total 57,932 in computer-related occupations. Forty-four percent, those with Master’s degrees, equals 25,490 H-1Bs. Subtracting 1% for Doctoral degrees, the remainder would be 55%, or 31,862 computer-related H-1Bs with bachelor's degrees.

The number of H-1Bs granted to computer-related Bachelor’s and Master’s holders were significant samples and comparative in number 31,862 to 25,490 respectively.
What happened in FY 2006, that drove salaries down for Master's degree holders in Computer-related & Writers occupations?

Of interest is the fact that FY 2006 was the first year of the 20,000 visa, U.S. postgraduate degree exemption to the H-1B program.

". 20,000 cap exemption for U.S. masters and higher. Up to 20,000 aliens with masters or higher-level degrees from U.S. institutions of higher education will be exempt from the H-1B cap each year. Petitions for such individuals that are filed after the 20,000 exemptions are granted will be counted against the cap. Note: this does not impact the general exemption from the cap for individuals employed by institutions of higher education; that exemption remains. Effective date: March 8, 2005. [Sec. 425]. [Note: No further details of how this will be implemented have been announced.]" http://www.oiss.yale.edu/visa/h1refact.htm

Recapping, the 20,000 visa H-1B exemption for postgraduates of American institutions of higher learning became effective less than 30 days prior to the H-1B FY2006 application date of 4/1/2005.

Subsequently, in the largest group of subscribers to the H-1B program, the value of a Master's degree appears to have become less valuable than a Bachelor's degree in computer-related occupations. (Sorry, the NSF did not supply additional data for Writing occupations.)

Source:
National Science Foundation: "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008"
Chapter 2. Section: Higher Education in Science and Engineering
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c2/c2s4.htm

Chapter 3. Section: Global S&E Labor Force and the United States
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm

Labor Authorizations in terms of years. Part II

2008-06-08T12:27:00.000-07:00

In my prior post, I suggested linking employment growth with an estimated number of work-years, authorized by temporary worker programs as a group. This post addresses the actual number of years under each temporary foreign worker program

Government publications define guest-worker authorizations in terms of visas, but many of these visas are multi-year work authorizations and most can be extended. Employment growth can be defined in terms of year to year growth in the employed labor force. By multiplying the number of guest-worker visa by the duration, we can compare the temporary work authorizations to employment growth.

Temporary worker programs defined with spouses & children categories removed.
Duration of Initial visas:

H1A Temporary worker performing services as a registered nurse = 3 years
H1B Temporary worker of distinguished merit…. other than as a registered nurse = 3 years
H1B1 Free Trade Agreement Professional = 1 year
H1C Shortage area nurse = 3 years
H2A Temporary worker performing agricultural services =1 year
H2B Temporary worker performing other services = 1year
H2R Returning H2B worker = 1year
H3 Trainee = 2 years
L1 Intracompany transferee = 3 years
O1 Person with extraordinary ability in the sciences, art, education, business, or athletics = 3 years
O2 Person accompanying and assisting in the artistic or athletic performance by O1 = 3 years
P1 Internationally recognized athlete or member … entertainment group = 5 years
P2 Artist or entertainer in a reciprocal exchange program = 1 year
P3 Artist or entertainer in a culturally unique program = 1 year
R1 Person in a religious occupation = 5 years
TN NAFTA professional = 1 year

Source: http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/news/2008,0604-crs.pdf

Growth in employment is taken from the BLS publication:

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed

2002 = (-448,000)
2003 = 1,251,000
2004 = 1,516,000
2005 = 2,478,000
2006 = 2,697,000
2007 = 1,620,000

Source: www.bls.gov

Initial work authorizations for temporary workers in years.
(Number of visas multiplied by initial duration of visa)
2003 = 810,999 (65% of same year employment growth)
2004 = 908,487 (60% of same year employment growth)
2005 = 897,848 (36% of same year employment growth)
2006 = 991,137 (37% of same year employment growth)
2007 = 1,128,142 (70% of same year employment growth)

Initial work authorizations with single renewal for temporary workers in years.
(Number of visas multiplied by initial duration plus renewal duration of visa)

2003 = 1,425,163 (114% of same year employment growth)
2004 = 1,622,802 (107% of same year employment growth)
2005 = 1,595,185 (64% of same year employment growth)
2006 = 1,710,500 (63% of same year employment growth)
2007 = 1,923,835 (119% of same year employment growth)

Source for Temporary work visas: http://www.travel.state.gov/xls/FY07AnnualReport.xls Table XVI(B)

Labor Authorizations in terms of years

2008-06-04T06:07:00.000-07:00

Hard data is good to find, especially on nonimmigrant temporary workers.

A CRS publication reveals that 628,390 temporary workers were issued visas in FY 2006. These visas vary in duration, in terms of years; with extensions, the H-1B is a six year visa, the L-1b is five years and the L-1a is a seven year visa.

In 2006, 135,421 H-1B visas were issued and 72,613 L-1 visas were issued.
208,025 (33%) of the 628,290 temporary worker visas granted were H-1B or L-1 multi-year visas.

http://www.travel.state.gov/xls/FY07AnnualReport.xls Table XVI(B)

Assume for a moment that the average nonimmigrant temporary guest-worker is allowed (including renewals, extensions and those refusing to depart) to work in the U.S. for 3 years. In Project Management terms, the government has authorized work permits for 1,885,170 "man" years of work in 2006 alone.

The unadjusted growth in the BLS Employment Levels:

2006 = 2,697,000
2007 = 1,620,000

Two year total = 4,317,000 employment growth

Temporary worker assumption (3 yr. work status duration)

2006 = 1,885,170
2007 = 1,885,170

Total work authorizations (in work/man years) = 3,770,340

In terms of work authorization years, 87% of employment growth in the past 2 years has been granted to temporary workers.

Congressional Research for Congress (CRS) publication
Order Code RL31381
U.S. Immigration Policy on
Temporary Admissions

(Page CRS 13)
In FY2006, temporary workers accounted for 1,709,953 admissions into the United States (excluding admissions on laser visas), which constitutes a 69.2% increase over FY1998.

(Page CRS 16)
Each of these issuance categories has grown between FY2002 and FY2006, with the
student category increasing by 17.3% and the temporary worker category increasing
by 21.7%.25 The FY2006 level of the former category was 642,097, while the level
of the latter category was 628,390.

(Page CRS 3)
Temporary Workers. The major nonimmigrant category for temporary
workers is the H visa. Professional specialty workers (H-1B), nurses (H-1C)
agricultural workers (H-2A) and unskilled temporary workers (H-2B) are included.9
Persons with extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts, education, business, or
athletics are admitted on O visas, while internationally recognized athletes or
members of an internationally recognized entertainment group come on P visas.
Aliens working in religious vocations enter on R visas. Temporary professional
workers from Canada and Mexico may enter according to terms set by the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on TN visas.
http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/news/2008,0604-crs.pdf

Offshoring probably not the true threat to I.T.

2008-05-08T06:18:00.000-07:00

Here is what the "brightest and the best" have built for themselves.

The true problem with the I.T. market is foreign worker encroachment, offshoring would not be of much consequence without H-1B and L-1 visas.

(These are images of India's infrastructure, click to enlarge)

When will the hundreds of millions of hungry people start recycling stolen copper?

IGATE Mastech DOJ (H-1B) Settlement (IGTE Nasdaq)

2008-05-03T20:03:00.000-07:00

iGATE Mastech (NASDAQ IGTE) has agreed to pay $45,000.00 in a discrimination settlement involving the exclusion of workers who do not hold H-1B visas.

While this settlement is getting some press, iGATE Mastech's trading symbol is not included in the H-1B story(s) and an Internet search for "IGTE" does not inform investors of the violations of the anti-discrimination provisions of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

The violations were so flagrant that investors should be wary of another possible equity meltdown like Enron or Bear Stearns from the Business Process Outsourcing sector.

The settlement stems from the Department’s finding that, between May 9, 2006, and June 4, 2006, iGate placed 30 job announcements for computer programmers
that expressly favored H-1B visa holders to the exclusion of U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, and other legal U.S. workers. Such preference constituted citizenship status discrimination and is prohibited by the Immigration and Nationality Act. http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2008/May/08_crt_369.html

A search of the 2007 H-1B LCA Database for "iGate" shows that applications for 5,262 H-1B migrant LCAs under various corporate headings. An examination of Yahoo Finance shows that iGate currently has 7140 full time employees.

IGATE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS , AN IGATE COMPANY = 620
IGATE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS , AN IGATE CORP. = 20
iGate Global Solutions, an iGate Company = 260
iGate Mastech Inc, an iGate Company = 4262
iGate Mastech, Inc. = 100

The actual number of H-1Bs awarded to iGATE for 2007 was...

IGATE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS AN IGATE CO = 41
IGATE MASTECH INC AN IGATE COMPANY = 14

The Programmers Guild, a lobbying group for software developers, claims it has tracked as many as 5,000 such online ads from 1,000 companies. The iGate compliant was one of 300 the group has drafted, about 100 of which it has actually filed with the DoJ, said John Miano, a software consultant who founded the group and serves as its treasurer.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/rss/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=207500461&cid=RSSfeed_eetimes_semiRSS

This is the first time I've seen the Programmer's Guild labeled a lobbying group, but it's very pathetic state of affairs if we have to form lobbying groups to have immigration and labor law enforced.

Anyway, a company that filed LCAs for over 5000 non-immigrants, is well represented legally, what other laws might iGATE, with an Enterprise value of 389.03M, be ignoring?

K-12 Educational System Bashing: Another Myth?

2008-04-23T13:01:00.000-07:00

We have a newish, pro-guest worker, High School drop-out claim, but I'm not seeing references to source material in news articles. The NCES shows a High School completion rate of 87.6%

This blog entry takes a horse-sense approach to looking at the success/failure rate of those who make it through our K-12 educational system.

Funny thing about dropping out of school, it doesn't necessarily mean that education cannot resume at a later date. On the other hand, High School might be a humiliating, even intolerable experience for some people.

An eighth-grade honor student was strip-searched by school officials for the suspicion of having Ibuprofen, a common over-the-counter drug for pain . No Ibuprofen was
found on her, by the way. On the other hand, behavior modifying drugs such as Ritalin can be forced on students over the objection of parents.
Quoted from a must read article:
The Taxpayer Frog In the IRS Pot, April 21, 2008

Perhaps we are experiencing policy problems, rather than education process problems? A combination of both?

Back to this blog, how are our schools doing with the young adults who stay in school? If we think of the educational system as a pipeline, we can take samples to make comparisons on the most recent data.

Oct. 2005 Census data:
Enrolled in high school = 14,060,000
...15 years old = 4,014,000
...16 and 17 years old = 8,272,000
...18 and 19 years old = 1,372,000
...20 years old and over = 402,000

Enrolled in college = 17,472,000
...15 to 17 years old = 181,000
...18 and 19 years old = 3,727,000
...20 and 21 years old = 3,945,000
...22 to 24 years old = 3,162,000
...25 to 29 years old = 2,291,000
...30 to 34 years old = 1,309,000
...35 years and over = 2,857,000

The number of persons under 25 years old and "Enrolled in college" was 11,015,000. The
Open Doors 2006, "Report on International Educational Exchange" tells us that there were
564,766 International students enrolled in U.S. colleges so that brings the number of Citizen and permanent residents enrolled in college to 10,450,234 .

10,450,234 (under 25) enrolled in college is 74.33% of 14,060,000 enrolled in High School. Moreover, if the population of young persons is growing, the older group of those enrolled in college comes from a smaller sample than the group of 2005 H.S. students.

Let's look at the college degree data from the NCES 2004 - 2005 school year, with degrees awarded to nonresident aliens subtracted.

Associate’s degrees = 682,670
Bachelor’s degrees = 1,393,903
Master's degrees = 501,395
Doctor’s degrees = 38,289
Total = 2,616,257

Since the age group 18 to 24 covers six years and it takes six years to earn a Master's degree, the number of Associate through Masters degrees awarded would be 15,467,808 over a six year period. This indicates a very good graduation rate, considering the enrollment from all age groups was 17,472,000 (88.53%).

These figures are not conclusive, just horse-sense reckoning, my interest is to display that a high percentage of High School students are continuing on to college and succeeding in earning a degree. Moreover, some people are bashing the K-12 educational system, just because they've read regurgitated Trade Association press releases in the main stream media.

Update:
Here is a table that shows the High School graduation rate at 89.8% and college enrollment at 72.3% for U.S. public schools in 2002-03. Private High Schools, 98.2% and 92.8 respectively.
http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/dt07_193.asp

Population 3 years and over enrolled in school.
2000 = 72,556,563
2001 = 73,187,876
2002= 74,649,109
2003= 75,128,957
2004= 75,475,565
<Census data>

Year to Year increase in enrollment 3 yrs and older.

2001 = 631,313
2002 = 1,461,233
2003 = 479,848
2004 = 346,608

Observation: So do I have to say YIKES here? The enrollment rate for 2002 was well over one million higher than 2004? I guess figuring out if this spike was related to immigration is for another blog entry.

Here's an interesting 2000 Census Map of United States High School drop out rates. It sure looks like the open-border policy has something to do with the drop out rates.
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ThematicMapFramesetServlet?_bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-tm_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U_M00161&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U&-_MapEvent=displayBy&-_dBy=040#?127,271

Source Data:

U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, October 2005.
Internet Release date: December 19, 2006 http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/school/cps2005/tab11-01.xls

Open Doors 2006
Report on International Educational Exchange
INTERNATIONAL STUDENT AND TOTAL U.S. ENROLLMENT http://opendoors.iienetwork.org/?p=89192

NCES
Table 7. Awards conferred by Title IV institutions, by race/ethnicity, level of award, and gender: United States, academic year 2004-05
http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2007/2007167.pdf

Aggregate: Bachelor's Degrees vs Employment Growth

2008-04-17T10:22:00.000-07:00

Highly-skilled labor shortage? These aggregate NCES and BLS figures don't support a shortage in skilled personnel.
Click on image to enlarge

Prior to 2000, American degree production for citizens/permanent residents and employment growth for college grads were relative. The delta between college degrees and graduate employment was a shortfall 2,061,405 jobs in 2006.

The Unemployment level of College Graduates went from a low of 559,000 in 2001, to an all time high of 1,221,000 in 2004.

(NCES) Temporary Resident Degrees Awarded 2005
Master's = 73,223
Post Masters Certificates = 1,082
Doctor's = 14,342
Professional Degrees = 2,037
Professional Certificates = 260
Total = 90,944

The Employent-based (EB) green card program's quota is 120,120 -- and all visa are recaptured. Assuming all of the foreign postgraduates were interested in immigrating, the EB could handle all of the postgraduates at 75.5% of the quota.

As per the NSF only 74% of foreign S&E Doctoral degree holders are interested in American citizenship.

Source:

NCES Graduation Data: Table 274. http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/xls/tabn274.xls

BLS Employment Data: http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=ln

Table 7. Awards conferred by Title IV institutions, by race/ethnicity, level of award, and gender: United States, academic year 2004-05 http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2007/2007167.pdf

Layoffs in Professional Services

2008-04-04T13:25:00.000-07:00