https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/blog-name en https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/tight-us-labor-market-stays-tight The US labor market has been very tight for over a year now, driving up both nominal wage growth and price growth, and it remained tight in August. Job growth continued to be strong as employers added 315,000 jobs last month. While the unemployment rate increased to 3.7 percent, this was... Fri, 02 Sep 2022 11:30:00 -0400 Jason Furman, Wilson Powell III /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/tight-us-labor-market-stays-tight https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-security-scrutiny-foreign-investment-rises-so-does-foreign China’s ambitions to obtain advanced technologies, including technologies with military implications, have raised longstanding concerns about its use of investments abroad to gain access to sensitive technologies, data, and infrastructure. In 2018, the US Congress moved to address this issue by... Thu, 01 Sep 2022 10:45:00 -0400 Martin Chorzempa /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-security-scrutiny-foreign-investment-rises-so-does-foreign https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/bidens-student-loan-plan-will-increase-inflation-only-small President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.’s plan to forgive a substantial portion of the $1.6 trillion in outstanding federal student loans has provoked a debate among economists over its inflationary impact. Three different arguments have been advanced. First, that the plan would add a very small amount to... Tue, 30 Aug 2022 14:45:00 -0400 David Wilcox /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/bidens-student-loan-plan-will-increase-inflation-only-small https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/chinas-zero-covid-policies-are-crippling-its-economic-outlook Every summer, Chinese tourists descend on the beach resorts in Sanya on Hainan Island, known as the Hawaii of China. Last weekend, the tourists got an unpleasant surprise when Chinese authorities abruptly locked down the entire city over an outbreak of the highly infectious BA.5 Omicron virus... Thu, 11 Aug 2022 09:00:00 -0400 Tianlei Huang /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/chinas-zero-covid-policies-are-crippling-its-economic-outlook https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/record-us-productivity-slump-first-half-2022-risks-higher Over the last two quarters, US employment in the nonfarm business sector grew at a very strong 4.3 percent annual rate while output fell at a 2.3 percent annual rate. With average hours per worker decreasing, this means that output per hour, also called labor productivity or simply productivity,... Tue, 09 Aug 2022 14:30:00 -0400 Jason Furman, Wilson Powell III /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/record-us-productivity-slump-first-half-2022-risks-higher https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/who-controls-worlds-minerals-needed-green-energy The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not simply exposed Europe's dangerous dependence on Russian oil and gas. The war has also underscored a less appreciated but equally worrisome vulnerability in the industrial West to threats that could hamper access to minerals vital to the transition from fossil... Tue, 09 Aug 2022 09:00:00 -0400 Luc Leruth, Adnan Mazarei /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/who-controls-worlds-minerals-needed-green-energy https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-and-unemployment-where-us-economy-heading-over-next Eight thoughts about what may happen to the US economy over the next six months. Inflation will come down, probably more than many people expect. This reflects the sharp turns in some commodity prices, weakness in China, improvements in supply chains, and the strong dollar. There will be claims of... Mon, 08 Aug 2022 13:30:00 -0400 Olivier Blanchard /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-and-unemployment-where-us-economy-heading-over-next https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/no-sign-inflation-relief-july-us-jobs-report The July 2022 US employment report surprised to the upside and depicts a labor market that is still very tight. Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000, more than double the consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent, matching the low seen in the robust pre-pandemic labor market... Fri, 05 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0400 Karen Dynan, Wilson Powell III /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/no-sign-inflation-relief-july-us-jobs-report https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/private-firms-bear-brunt-chinas-weak-growth China’s meager growth and high unemployment in the first half of 2022 is disproportionately due to weakness in private economic activity, which typically accounts for over two-thirds of China’s output and four-fifths of urban employment. Many small private firms and individual businesses are... Tue, 02 Aug 2022 09:00:00 -0400 Tianlei Huang, Nicholas R. Lardy /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/private-firms-bear-brunt-chinas-weak-growth https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/fed-wrong-lower-inflation-unlikely-without-raising-unemployment In a lengthy FEDS Note, “What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?,” published July 29, Governor Chris Waller and Fed associate director Andrew Figura challenge the conclusions of our PIIE Policy Brief, “ Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space .” We looked... Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:15:00 -0400 Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash, Lawrence H. Summers /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/fed-wrong-lower-inflation-unlikely-without-raising-unemployment https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/senates-climate-change-agreement-will-not-secure-us-solar The climate change legislation newly brokered after arduous talks to secure Senator Joe Manchin's (D-WV) pivotal vote is intended in part to jumpstart US solar manufacturing—fabrication and assembly of materials across the solar value chain—and provide greater energy security by reducing US... Fri, 29 Jul 2022 13:45:00 -0400 Cullen S. Hendrix /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/senates-climate-change-agreement-will-not-secure-us-solar https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/air-travel-mostly-resumes-tourists-not-business-passengers A summer of chaos has gripped airlines and airports globally, as international travel bounces back after a two-year pandemic-induced slump. Soaring fares, staff shortages and strikes, lost baggage, and other travel nightmares are widespread in some of the busiest airports and airlines in the EU,... Thu, 28 Jul 2022 09:00:00 -0400 Thomas Belaich, Jean Pisani-Ferry /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/air-travel-mostly-resumes-tourists-not-business-passengers https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/chinas-top-ranked-corporations-are-not-opaque-they-may-seem Since 2020, more companies from China have made the annual Fortune Global 500 ranking than any other country, including the United States. Over two-thirds of these companies are not publicly traded, i.e., their shares are not listed on a stock exchange, and most of them are state-owned enterprises... Mon, 18 Jul 2022 10:00:00 -0400 Tianlei Huang, Nicolas Véron /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/chinas-top-ranked-corporations-are-not-opaque-they-may-seem https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-job-market-provides-hopeful-signs-against-recession-and The US employment report for June continues to show a strong labor market that is consistent with a strong economy with moderating inflationary pressures. Employment is growing robustly, unemployment is low and stable, and nominal wage growth continues to slow, which should ease inflationary... Fri, 08 Jul 2022 10:45:00 -0400 Jason Furman, Wilson Powell III /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-job-market-provides-hopeful-signs-against-recession-and https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-story-differs-across-major-economies The return of inflation has touched off an unusual public debate among policymakers around the world, but there are important differences in inflation across economies that call for radically different policy responses. Inflation may be caused by a reduction in an economy's ability to supply goods... Thu, 30 Jun 2022 09:15:00 -0400 Joseph E. Gagnon /blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-story-differs-across-major-economies